Operation Featherweight: Month 36, Week 3, Day 2.

In the autumn of 2013 the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) were in extremely bad shape. The Syrians had limited them to an area in and around the Euphrates River basin in the north-east of the country.

With the motto of; "Maintain and Expand" this loss and contraction was obviously very bad news for the group.

So in December 2013 ISIL almost abandoned Syria entirely instead invading Anbar Province in the south-west of Iraq. In the summer of 2014 ISIL also invaded the north-west of Iraq including the city of Mosul. Since then Mosul has functioned as ISIL's de facto capital in Iraq.

In June 2016 the Iraqi Security Forces (ISF) liberated the city of Fallujah from ISIL. This marked the functional liberation of Anbar Province from the group although ISIL do maintain some camps in the vast unpopulated areas of Anbar Province. Particularly around the border town of Qaim.

In October 2016 the ISF launched an operation to liberate Mosul. This was intended as a combined operation.

The Iraqi Kurdish Peshmerga along with the Iraqi Popular Mobilisation Forces (PMF) militias would take responsibility for securing the areas around Mosul. The ISF would take responsibility for liberating the city itself. All aspects of this operation have been supported by the US-led coalition - Combined Joint Task Force: Operation Inherent Resolve (CJTFOIR).

The first phase of the operation was to surround Mosul on three sides. The northern Tel Skuf Front, the eastern Kalak Front and the southern Qarrayah/Gwer Front. This was completed with the liberation of Hamman al-Alil on the Qarrayah front on November 7th 2016 (7/11/16).

The second phase was to liberate the area of Mosul that sits to the east of the Tigris River. This eastern half is sometimes referred to as; "The Left Bank." This phase was begun before the first phase had been completed with the ISF entering the al-Quds neighbourhood from the Gogjali neighbourhood on the Kalak Front on November 1st 2016 (1/11/16).

This second phase was completed with the liberation of all of the eastern half of Mosul on January 24th 2017 (24/1/17).

The third phase of the operation was to liberate the area of Mosul that sits to the west of the Tigris River. This western half is sometimes referred to as; "The Right Bank." Following a short and planned paused this third phase began on February 19th (19/2/17) with the ISF advancing north from Hamman al-Alil.

This saw the ISF enter western Mosul on ultimately three axis;

Initially the Federal Police element of the ISF entered the city from the Mosul International Airport/Ghazlani Military base at the southern most tip of the city. The Counter-Terrorism Force (CTF/Golden Division) axis entered the city from the al-Rayyan neighbourhood at the south-western tip of the city.

Eventually they were joined by the 9th Armoured Division and the combined Rapid Reaction Force elements of the ISF who opened a northern axis entering the Musaharrifah district of western Mosul on May 4th (4/5/17).

On June 17th (17/6/17) all three of these axis had converged on the Old City district. The only area of Mosul remaining under ISIL control.

The Federal Police element of the ISF actually entered the Old City district on March 21st (21/3/17). Having secured the al-Tob neighbourhood to the south of the Old City and the Corniche area between the Old City and the Tigris River they advanced within the Old City on two axis. Heading north along al-Shaziani Street and west along Nineveh Street.

On June 18th (18/6/17) the Federal Police were joined in the Old City by the Golden Division of the ISF. Entering from Ibrahim al-Athir Street the Golden Division advanced east along Nineveh Street.

Within the Old City ISIL had concentrated their forces at the Grand Mosque of al-Nuri located just north of the junction between al-Shaziani Street and Nineveh Street. This is where ISIL leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi publicly declared the group to be a Caliphate and he its Caliph.

As of May 4th (4/5/17) the Federal Police element of the ISF had surrounded the al-Nuri Mosque on three sides; north, east and south. As of June 18th (18/6/17) the Golden Division element of the ISF had advanced along Nineveh Street to come within 30 metres/yards from surrounding al-Nuri Mosque from the west.

On June 21st (21/6/17) ISIL realised that they could no longer defend al-Nuri Mosque so blew it up in an act of spite. The thinking being that if they couldn't have the Mosque then no-one could. ISIL then centred their forces around the Ibrahim Sina hospital complex in the north-east quadrant of the Old City.

On June 29th (29/6/17) the Federal Police and Golden Division elements converged on the site of the al-Nuri Mosque securing the ruins and the surrounding area. On July 2nd (2/7/17) the ISF liberated the Ibrahim Sina hospital complex.

As a result ISIL are now limited to just the roughly 2.7kmsq (1.6 milesq) area between Nabi Jorjis Street and the Tigris River.

To put the remaining part of the Mosul operation in the most naked terms there are roughly 300 ISIL fighters remaining in that small area. The ISF's job is to find them and kill them. Obviously they don't want to be found and they don't want to be killed.

Therefore I can't really say how long this task will take but the main combat operation in Mosul is now all but over.

There are many to choose from but one of the main flaws of the Mosul operation was the failure to surround the western side of the city. This left a vast 28,000kmsq (16,800milesq) area designated; "Falls Road" open to allow ISIL fighters to flee from Mosul.

The purpose of leaving the Falls Road open was specifically to allow ISIL to flee from Mosul up the Euphrates River basin to their de facto capital in Syria - Raqqa.

The thinking being that this would bring a quick victory that would allow then US President Barack Obama to propel his designated successor Hillary Clinton to victory in the November 8th 2016 (8/11/16) US Presidential Election.

The flaw in this plan is that if ISIL fighters can flee from Mosul to Raqqa they can also flee from Raqqa to Turkey via an area of the Syria/Turkey border designated; "Garvaghy Road." From Turkey ISIL fighters can then travel to wherever they like in the World be it Europe, Libya, the Philippines etc.

Fortunately the PMF element of the ISF were alive to this threat.

So on October 29th 2016 (29/10/16) the PMF opened a western front advancing from the southern Qarrayh Front to the town of Tal Afar which sits about 80km (48 miles) west of Mosul on the H47 Highway between Mosul and Iraq's border with Syria. This was completed on November 16th 2016 (16/11/16) sealing Mosul off from the Falls Road.

Since then the PMF have tightened that boundary all the way up to Mosul. They have also secured all the territory west the Qarrayh - Tel Afar line to Iraq's border with Syria. They completed this on June 7th (7/6/17) the PMF liberated the village of Tal Safuq which sits directly on the Iraq/Syria border.

The only location within this area still under ISIL control is the town of Tal Afar itself. Iraq's neighbour to the north Turkey has repeatedly threatened to attack Iraq if the PMF enter Tal Afar.

However it has been decided that once Mosul has been completely liberated the ISF will move to liberated Tel Afar. Despite opposition from Iraq's Kurds I consider the liberation of Tal Afar to be part of the Mosul operation rather than a separate operation in itself.

Before the PMF moved to seal the Falls Road a NATO meeting was held in late-October 2016. Here particularly European members of NATO made it extremely clear to the US the flaw in leaving the Falls Road open. As a panicked response to this criticism Obama declared that the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF/QSD) would liberate Raqqa.

The SDF operation designated; "Wrath of Euphrates" was launched on November 6th 2016 (6/11/16).

The first phase of the operation was to advance south from the town of Ayn Issa towards Raqqa. Ayn Issa is located roughly 70km (40 miles) east of the Euphrates and 70km (40 miles) north of Raqqa.

This phase of the operation was completed on November 25th 2016 (25/11/16). It saw the SDF liberate roughly 600kmsq (360 milesq) of territory and take up positions roughly 25km (15 miles) north of Raqqa.

The second phase of the operation was launched on December 10th 2016 (10/12/16). It's objective was to see the SDF sweep down the banks of the Euphrates from the town of Sarrin to the Tabqa Dam. Sarrin is located roughly 70km (40 miles) north-west of Ayn Issa on the banks of the Euphrates while the Tabqa Dam is located around 40km (25 miles) west of Raqqa.

This second phase was completed on January 20th 2017 (20/1/17). It saw the SDF take up positions at Jabour Castle at Lake Assad some 10km (6 miles) west of the Tabqa Dam and liberate roughly 3,200kmsq (1,900 milesq) of territory between Lake Assad and the Ayn Issa line.

The third phase was launched on February 4th (4/2/17). It's objective was to secure the territory north-west of Raqqa cutting the city off from Deir-ez-Zour - the other major city on the Euphrates around 120km (70 miles) south-east of Raqqa.

On March 6th (6/3/17) the SDF secured control of the main Raqqa to Deir-ez-Zour road around 6km (3.5 miles) south-east of the town of Madan. Madan sits around 55km (30 miles) south-east of Raqqa and around 65km (40 miles) north-west of Deir-ez-Zour.

This third phase was completed on March 19th (19/3/17) with the SDF taking up positions around al-Karamah which is roughly 30km (20 miles) south-east of Raqqa. In the process the SDF liberated another roughly 1000kmsq (600 milesq) of territory bringing the total territory liberated in the operation to in excess of 4,200kmsq (2,500 milesq)

On March 22nd (22/3/17) the SDF launched an operation to liberate both the town of Tabqa and the Tabqa Dam. This was completed on May 11th (11/5/17).

On June 6th (6/6/17) the SDF launched an operation to liberate the city of Raqqa itself. This was launched on three axis.

The northern axis advanced on the sprawling former Syrian military - Division 17 - base to the north of the city. At some 50kmsq (30 milesq) this Division 17 is almost half the size of Raqqa itself.

The western axis advanced on the Jazra suburb around 1km (06 miles) to the west of Raqqa. The eastern axis advanced on the Mashlab district at the south-eastern tip of the city.

While these advances were taking place another element of the SDF were advancing west to east on the southern bank of the Euphrates.

On the first day the western axis were able to take full control of Jazra. On June 9th (9/6/17) it advanced into the Sabahiya district which sits almost directly north of Jazra.

On June 10th (10/6/17) the western axis entered the Romaniyah district which sits north-east of the Sabahiya district. This allowed them to liberate both Sabahiya and Romaniyah districts on June 11th (11/6/17).

On June 12th (12/6/17) the western axis entered the al-Hattin district which sits directly east of the Sabahiya district.

As part of the effort to liberate the al-Hattin district the western axis advanced into the al-Baryd district on June 14th (14/6/17). The al-Baryd district sits directly east of the Romaniyah district and north-east of the al-Hattin district.

On June 23rd (23/6/17) the western axis entered the al-Qadisiyyah district. This sits directly to the south of al-Hattin district. It was liberated on June 26th (26/6/17).

On June 28th (28/6/17) the al-Hattin district was finally liberated. This allowed the western axis to advance into the an-Nadah district which sits directly east of the al-Hattin district and south of the al-Baryd district.

On July 3rd (3/7/17) the western axis entered the Yarmouk district. This sits directly south of the al-Qadisiyyah district on the banks of the Euphrates.

On June 9th (9/6/17) the eastern axis were able to fully liberate the Mashlab district. This allowed them to enter the al-Sinna district directly to the west which was liberated on June 15th (15/6/17).

On June 16th (16/6/17) the eastern axis entered the Bitani district directly to the north of al-Sinaa district. This was fully liberated on June 17th (17/6/17). On June 28th (28/6/17) the eastern axis entered the Rawdah district which sits north-west of the Bitani district.

On July 2nd (2/7/17) the eastern axis was able to fully liberate the al-Hal market area between the al-Sinna district and the Euphrates. This allowed them to enter the Hisham Abdulmalik district at the very south of Raqqa on the banks of the Euphrates.

Due to the size of the District 17 base the northern axis' progress relatively slow but steady. As of June 29th (29/6/17) they were in control of more then 60% of the base.

On June 29th (29/6/17) the west to east advance across the south bank of the Euphrates was complete. This meant that Raqqa was finally sealed off on all sides from the outside world.

These lightning advances mean that just 30 days into the battle the SDF now completely control or partly control 12 of Raqqa's 27 districts. This represents roughly 30% of the city.

16:50 on 5/7/17 (UK date).