The 2020 US Presidential Election: Donald Trump Pt.1.

Nominally representing the Republican Party Donald Trump is the incumbent President. Elected in November 2016. Taking up office in January 2017.

I shall now list all of Donald Trump's achievements as President;

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This startling lack of achievement is particluarly unfortunate. President Trump along with America and the World inherited a dire situation for his predecessor, former President Barack Obama.

There is a correct technical term for what former President Obama left in his wake. However it would be inappropriate of me to use it here.

It would simply take too long for me to list all of Obama's failures as President. So instead I will limit myself to the areas where he has done the most damage.

US/China Relations: I appreciate that this is a broad and complex topic. So not really one that can be covered by hashtags interspersed with clapping hands emojis.

It is though an important one. So at least try and stay with it.

This current chapter in US/China trade relations began in 1972. When then US President Richard Nixon visited China. The first sitting US President to set foot in the country since the Communist revolution of 1949.

Then President Nixon's over-riding objective was to find a way to end the Vietnam war. However the visit also marked the start of a much wider policy of engagement. Including the opening up of trade between the two nations.

The thinking being that increased trade would bring wealth to China. In turn creating a new middle-class. As the middle-class grew it would overturn the subjugation of Chairman Mao's Cultural Revolution. Forcing China to open up, allowing more political and social freedom for its citizens.

Initially this strategy worked incredibly well.

By the summer of 1989 this new middle-class had established itself to the point it had formed a pro-Democracy movement. Which held protests in over 400 cities across China. Most famously in Beijing's Tiananmen Square.

The Chinese Communist Party's violent crushing of the 1989 Democracy Movement ushered in a new social contract between the Chinese people and their rulers.

Rather than being the driver of democracy, economic prosperity instead became the compensation for totalitarianism. In short the Chinese Communist Party would pay the Chinese people not to demand things like democracy or justice under the rule of law.

So this is really a problem that every US President has inherited from their predecessor. Going back to at least George H Bush. 

However Obama's attempt to respond to it through his; "Pivot Towards The Pacific" policy only succeeded in making it far worse. Both for America and the World more generally.

Obama's Pivot Towards the Pacific policy was designed to include two tracks. The economic track and the security track.

The Economic Track saw the US opening up trade links with China's neighbours. 

The intention being to undercut Chinese manufacturers. By providing global corporations with cheaper alternatives to Chinese suppliers. The Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) being the main mechanism for this.

The major flaw in this strategy is that it also undercut US manufacturers. Driving costs so low they have absolutely no chance of competing. 

Thus lowering the wages and living standards of the US' own middle-class. It did though serve to make some already extremely rich global corporations even richer.

The other major a flaw is that it saw the US force nations of the World to lift sanctions on nations that really should be under international sanctions. The most extreme example being Myanmar/Burma.

In September 2016 the US lifted sanctions on Myanmar. In August 2017 Myanmar launched a campaign of Ethnic Cleansing against its Rohingya population. With some 600,000 Rohingya still trapped in the Coxs Bazaar Refugee Camp in Bangladesh this continues as a stain on humanity to this day.

The Security Track of the Obama's Pivot Towards the Pacific saw the US build the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK/North) into the regional nuclear bogeyman. For example conducting intelligence operations to supply it with things like misssile launch control technology. In order to allow the country to rapidly advance its nuclear program.

The objective being that nations in the region would turn to the US to protect themselves from this threat. 

As a direct neighbour China cannot afford to be as aggressive in its rhetoric towards the DPRK. Due to the risk of the nation's collapse triggering a massive refugee crisis. Amongst other problems.

I really hope I don't need to actually state the major flaw in turning any country into a nuclear power. Then encouraging it to threaten its neighbours. Although with Obama seeming to think it was a good idea clearly someone needs to explain it to him.

Not only was the security track of Obama's Pivot Towards the Pacific policy almost suicidally dangerous. It also didn't work. Rather than having nations turn towards the US for protection it saw existing regional allies distance themselves from the US.

For example Japan responded by announcing plans to amend its pacifist constitution. To allow it to pre-emptively strike the DPRK. With or without US support. 

Likewise the Republic of Korea (RoK/South) was forced to announce it was drawing up its own unilateral plans to attack the DPRK. Killing its leader Kim Jong-un before he could launch an attack of his own.

As I've said President Trump has not succeeded in completely resetting America's relationship with China. That though is something which is measured in decades. Rather than President's four year terms of office.

What President Trump has done though is make great strides in undoing the huge damage done by former President Obam'a Pivot Towards the Pacific.

On the economic track one of President Trump's first acts was to end the US' involvement in the Trans-Pacific Partnership. 

Unfortunately that didn't kill it entirely. The TPP has continued in the form of the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP). However without America's economic might that is currently of little significance.

Post-Brexit Britain is pursuing an interest in joining CPTPP. President Trump's opponent, Joe Biden, has declared that he would sign the US up to CPTPP as one of his first acts as President. Adding the American economic might it needs to become significant.

This would be extremely bad news.

One of the major sticking points in TPP negotiations were over the chapters on "Rule of Law." Things like intellectual property and copyright. 

The US wanted the TPP to adopt its standards of Rule of Law. Essentially the current, accepted global standards. China wanted it to adopt its standards of Rule of Law. A sentence which is somewhat hard to say, while keeping a straight face.

In becoming the CPTPP China won the argument. The agreement is now based around Chinese principles of Rule of Law.

Joe Biden's urgent desire to join the CPTPP will see America sign up to Chinese standards of Rule of Law.  

Well, actually Joe Biden has declared that he will sign up to the TPP. Apparently competely oblivious to the fact the TPP no longer exists. Having being replaced by the CPTPP.

Which I think tells you all you need to know about Joe Biden's grasp of the policy area.

Rather than a grand, regional free trade agreement President Trump has instead tackled China head on. Using the tried and tested methods of tariffs and quotas.

How effective that has been has been hard to judge. Due to COVID-19 essentially shutting down the global economy this past year. 

It is pretty much impossible for tariffs and quotas to have any impact on trade discussions. When there isn't actually any trade going on.

As I said in my election coverage of COVID-19. A powerful force seems to have tried to hand America a huge advantage in its trade war with China. 

Forcing what should have been a China only lockdown. 

Unfortunately Progressives the World over seem so enamoured with China's model of Totalitarian Capitalism they were falling over themselves to follow suit and lockdown their own economies.

Obviously global corporations and their mouthpieces have been furious about President Trump's approach to China. As you can see through their faux fury at China's current solution to its Uighur problem.

However it is the job of global corporations to be concerned with boosting private profits. It is a politician's job to be concerned with boosting public good.

On the security track President Trump has stopped trying to build the DPRK into a regional nuclear bogeyman. 

Instead President Trump has pursued a policy of engagement. Not only to get North Korea to give up its nuclear weapons but also to address the reasons why North Korea feels it needs nuclear weapons.

This has had the immediate effect of calming the situation. The DPRK has not conducted any nuclear tests. Limiting itself to missle tests which experts in the field would describe as amusing rather than threatening.

Likewise South Korea is no longer openly declaring the urgent need to launch a pre-emptive strike against the DPRK. Japan has dropped its plans to amend its pacifist constitution.

President Trump was also able to establish a solid working relationship between the US and the DPRK. An essential basis for any form of diplomacy. 

In June 2019 Trump became the first sitting US President to ever set foot in the country. A deliberate and intelligent reference to then President Nixon's 1972 visit to China.

Unfortunately President Trump then made an absolutely terrible mistake. A mistake so terrible that no-one in the world of politics or diplomacy has made it since about 2006.

President Trump listened to John Bolton.

It's often said that, rather like his report card, John Bolton's middle inital is; "F." I'll leave you to guess what it stands for.

US/Iran Relations: Iran is really the main supporter of the Palestinian people. So this particular Obama disaster really feeds into the Israel/Palestine Conflict.

Suffering from possibly the worst case of; "Jerusalem Syndrome" the World has ever seen former President Obama came to power. Thinking he alone was going to solve the Israel/Palestine Conflict.

Unfortunately the Israel/Palestine Conflict is extraordinarily complicated. While former President Obama is extraordinarily lazy.

One example of the complexity of the Israel/Palestine Conflict is the talk surrounding; "Iran's Nuclear Program." 

Amongst diplomats and military types very few of these discussions are actually about Iran's nuclear program. Instead they serve as a useful, coded metaphor for the convential weapons threat Iran poses to Israel. Through its support for Hamas and Hezbollah.

Former President Obama was too lazy to learn about any of this. In his messianic quest to solve the Israel/Palestine Conflict. 

So instead Obama decided to sweep it all away. By actually putting a stop to Iran's actual nuclear program. Imposing sanctions of Iran which were unprecedented in their severity.

This brought immediate a serious damage to America and its interests.

Even before COVID-19 the US was running one of the largest budget deficits in the World. The reason why the US is able to run a budget defict that would drive most nations into bankruptcy is because it's currency - the US Dollar - is the global reserve currency. 

That means that if any nation were to call in the US' debts driving it to bankruptcy the first thing that would happen is that the value of the dollar would collapse. Driving all the nations that hold dollar reserves into bankruptcy. A sort of economic Mutally Assured Destruction.

The reason why the US Dollar is the global reserve currency is because back at the end of the Second World War the US did a deal with the World's largest oil producer. Saudi Arabia. 

In return for the US guaranteeing the security of the Saudi Royal Family Saudi Arabia agreed to only sell its oil in US Dollars. That meant that anybody wanting to buy oil had to have a reserve of US Dollars.

Obviously much like the rest of the western world the US has not purchased oil from Iran since the 1979 Revolution. 

However other nations - most notably China - have been perfectly happy to buy oil from Iran over the past 30 odd years. Being global the sanctions the Obama regime imposed prevented those nations from buying oil from Iran. Forcing them to buy oil from Saudi Arabia instead.

Due to their huge demand for oil and therefore purchasing power China has not been happy about buying oil in the currency of their great economic rival. Saudi Arabia has been more than happy to oblige them and welched on its deal with the US by selling China oil in its own currency - the Rimimbi (Yuan).

The increased volume of oil sales in the currency have led to the Rimimbi being included in the International Monetary Fund's (IMF) Special Drawing Rights (SDR) basket of currencies. These are the types of currency that the IMF accepts and makes payments in. The Rimimbi's inclusion in the SDR basket is a significant step towards eliminating the US Dollar as the global reserve currency.

As with other aspects of US/China relations this is quite a technical and not particularly headline grabbing topic. However it is a very important one. 

Really one of the structural pillars of the US economy and American power. It is not something any US President should be taking a sledgehammer to. Certainly not with the glee that the Obama regime went about it.

In sweeping away Iran's actual nuclear program Obama also swept away one of the main devices that international community has been using to discuss the Israel/Palestine Conflict.

This one act forced the other four Permenant Members of the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) - Britain, France, Russia, China - along with Germany into a complex task. 

To find a way for the US to back out of the idiotic decision of the Obama regime. While allowing the US to save face.

The solution they found was the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). The so-called; "Iran Nuclear Deal."

In this area President Trump seems to have made absolutely no attempt to reverse the damage done by Obama. 

Instead President Trump seems to have taken on the seemingly impossible task. Of making an even bigger mess of things than Obama did.

President Trump scrapped the Iran Nuclear Deal. Once again forcing China to buy oil from Saudi Arabia. Swinging that sledgehammer at a core pillar of the US economy.

If that wasn't bad enough President Trump went even further. Imposing additional sanctions of Iran. With the clear intention of forcing regime change in the country. A strategy which has all the chances of success as America's attempt to force regime on Iran's neighbour Iraq. Back in 2003.

In doing this President Trump clearly made an absolutely terrible mistake. A mistake so terrible that no-one in the world of politics or diplomacy has made it since about 2006.

President Trump listened to John Bolton.

Former President Obama's hostility towards Iran was borne out of laziness and naivety. Sadly John Bolton and current Secretary of State Mike Pompeo's hostility towards Iran is borne out of pure, unadulatrated delusion and insanity.

In 1953 the US and the UK overthrew Iran's democratic government. In order to impose the rule of the King/Shah. Who would never do something as insulting as ask the US and UK to pay a fair price for Iran's oil. By 1979 the Iranian people had had enough of this so overthrew the Shah.

Heaping more embarasment on the US intelligence community Iran's revolutionaries took 52 Americans hostage, holding them for 444 days. It was then President Carter's failure to free those hostages which helped Republican Party hero Ronald Reagen to defeat him in the 1980 Presidential election.

One of then President Reagan's first acts was to release Iranian funds that the US had frozen. Resulting in the hostages being freed. Throughout his two terms President Reagan dealt and cooperated extensively with Iran. Most notably selling them missiles through the Iran Contra program.

Despite this it's become a shibboleth of the Republican Party that you must be tough on Iran. Even though all the evidence and the actions of their hero Reagan show that the opposite is true.

So if you ever want to give yourself a headache. Try and have a rational discussion with John Bolton.

As for Jared Kushner. Idiots like that come and go. The region seems perfectly capable of quickly forgetting they ever existed.

 

Continued in Part 2;

18:00 on 1/11/20 (UK date).