The 2020 US Presidential Election: COVID-19 Pt.1.

On Tuesday, November 3rd 2020 (3/11/20) Americans will go to the polls.

To elect all new members of the national House of Representatives and a third of the members of the national Senate. Along with a host of State and municipal positions. 

The top of the ticket race, that everybody will be looking at, though it that for US President.

However the Democrats did not do at all well at the 2016 election. Losing control of the House of Representatives, the Senate and the Presidency they were almost completely wiped out.

The Democrats have since identified the problem; The US Voter.

So this time they will be attempting to eliminate that problem entirely from the process. Encouraging the use of early, Postal Voting.

In order to allow time for any errors to be corrected this means voting has already begun.

So closer to election day I will take my traditional look at the two candidates for President. I feel now though is the time for me to address the issue which has rather dominated this election cycle. COVID-19.

COVID-19 came into being in late-November/early-December 2019.

If I had to pick an exact date I would say November 14th 2019 (14/11/19). 

Just as police were raiding the Hong Kong University in Hong Kong, China. While I sat in a Salisbury, UK restaurant, pondering a Star of David engraving and thinking about the Eurovision Song Contest.

I say this knowing full well that there is no way anyone can even begin to disprove me. Rather like former US President Barack Obama's 2013 claim that Rihanna's mood swings cause Climate Change.

Regardless of the exact date you may remember that late-November/early December 2019 was an extremely intense time in global politics.

The main event was the 25th Conference of Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). The COP 25 Summit. Where all the nations of the World gather together. To at least pretend to focus intently on the natural environment.

COP 25 marked the final, dying days of the Kyoto Protocol. As of January 1st 2020 (1/1/20) this was replaced by the much vaunted Paris Agreement. An absolutely huge moment in Climate Change circles.

Under the Kyoto Protocol nations were divided into two camps; Developed nations (Annex I) and Developing nations (Annex II).

The US never signed up to the Kyoto Protocol. For some, actually quite legitimate reasons. However the US is really seen as the leader of the Annex I faction. While China is really seen as the leader of the Annex II faction.

This means that everyone in UNFCCC negotiations is long used to seeing them descend. Into nothing more than yet another front in the trade war between the US and China.

As a result everyone in UNFCCC circles is expected to at least have a working knowledge of President Trump's Trade War with China. Particularly how it would be affected by the Democrats attempt to impeach President Trump. Part of a campaign that's been running since, probably, early 2016.

Speaking just for myself I would say that President Trump's approach has been much more effective than a succession of his predecessors. At least it has actually focused on trade. Rather than ineffective metaphors for trade. Such as the UNFCCC.

The UK in particular went to great lengths to muscle in on the US/China Trade War. Instigating and directing the Hong Kong Protests. As a way to force China to talk to them.

Apart from my "Weapons of Mass Construction" costume ©2004 the defining image of the Hong Kong Protests was that of the surgical face mask. 

As within 2004 these were worn by the, frankly, rioters to hide their identities. However the excuse they used was that they were medical devices. Essential to guard against the spread of germs and pollen particals.

Britain's reckless actions in Hong Kong unleashed a wave of copycat protests across the globe. Foolishly bringing down the governments of both Iraq and Lebanon. 

Perhaps most notably though they nearly brought down the government of Chile. Causing COP 25 to be cancelled. Then, at the last minute, moved to Spain.

In his astonishing arrogance UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson called a General Election for December 12th 2019 (12/12/19). Both the midpoint for COP 25 and the 4th anniversary of the signing of the Paris Agreement. 

Essentially a second referendum this UK Election would decide whether Britain would finally go ahead with leaving the European Union (EU).

Within UNFCCC negotiations the EU is seen as a sort of third bloc. Attempting to bridge the gap between the US and China. Particularly when it comes to shortfalls in funding.

So whether the UK would remain a member of the EU. Bound by its Climate Change commitments and continuing to contribute to its budget. Or strike out on its own. That was also something people in UNFCCC circles needed to keep an eye on.

This was doubly important due to the fact Britain was scheduled to host the 2020 COP Summit. COP 26. The first under the Paris Agreement.

Britain's genuine commitment to action on Climate Change can really be summed up by its choice of date for COP 26. The first two weeks in November 2020.

Which would coincide with this US Election. Along with its fallout. Just in the final six weeks before the Brexit Withdrawal Agreement expires. The forum they chose was Scotland. Which itself may soon be voting to become an independent nation.

Like everything else COP 25 was occuring amid the ongoing World War. Against the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) and their associated groups.

One of the worst, single ISIL attacks was the November 13th 2015 (13/11/15) Paris Massacres. These occured just 17 days before the COP 21 Summit. At which the Paris Agreement was signed.

The Paris Massacres seemed a very deliberate attempt to intimidate UNFCCC delegations. Particularly the poorer African ones. Designed to scare them into signing up to the new, rival text that then US President Obama had introduced at the last minute.

Hardly the only time that the interests of the US Democrat Party and ISIL have mysteriously converged.

Late-November/early-December is also when relevent nations start preparing their entries for the following year's Eurovision Song Contest. Even I think this sounds a bit crazy. 

However things really do happen in European politics because of the Song Contest. For example the Czech Republic's 2019 entry addressed the EU directive on digital copyright. "The Meme Law." To use its correct, short-form name.

The 2019 Eurovision Song Contest was, of course, held in Tel Aviv, Israel. Meaning that it attracted a much wider audience than it is used to. Essentially every UN nation that has ever been forced to form an opinion on the Israel/Palestine Conflict. So everyone.

This meant there was a lot more than usual tidying up to be done. Ahead of and at the 2020 Eurovision Song Contest.

It very much seems as though all these tensions and frustrations have gone up into the sky. The Wu Xing. The Tree of Life. The Quantum Field. The Universe. Whatever you want to call it. 

They have then come back to us. In the form of COVID-19.

Particularly in the western world everything now seems to live under the long shadow of the so-called; "Cancel Culture." Attempting to silence debate by labelling any differing opinion; "Offensive" or "Triggering" and having them banned.

This totalitarian attitude is particularly prevalent in the world of academia. On which Climate science rather relies.

So I should probably begin by addressing; The Naming Issue.

COVID-19 is an Acute Respiratory Syndrome (ARS). It first emerged in China. Which is in the Far East (FE).

So it seems the virus has named itself; "Far Eastern Acute Respiratory Syndrome (FEARS)." That would certainly be keeping with a common practice within science.

For example a Respiratory Syndrome emerged in the Middle-East in 2012. Amid debate whether it was Acute or Chronic this was named; "Middle-Eastern Respiratory Syndrome (MERS)."

Then you have the Ebola virus. Named after the Ebola River in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) where it first emerged.

Also you could look at the Zika virus. Named after Zika Forest in Uganda where it first emerged. Making; "Could Zika Spread to Africa?!" one of the stranger health-scare stories of 2016.

However, since the emergence of MERS Cancel Culture has decided that this practice is racist. A mircoagression so triggering for people with distant ancestors from those areas it makes it impossible for them to continue their studies.

So instead of; "FEARS" we're left with; "COVID-19." Which I don't think means anything to anyone.

This is no small issue. In choosing the name FEARS the virus seems to be trying to give us an insight into how it functions.

On the individual level COVID-19 is not a particularly serious illness.

At it's most severe it causes Severe, Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS). Pneumonia, in layman's terms. This can be a very serious and sometimes fatal condition. However it is one that the medical profession is extremely experienced in treating and seeing people recover from.

The difference is that COVID-19 also triggers a sort of fear response within the body. Causing the immune system to overreact. Attacking not just virus cells but all cells. Particularly vital red blood cells.

So the virus attacks cells in the lungs. This reduces the amount of oxygen entering the blood stream. As with Puemonia. However the immune response then attacks the blood cells preventing them from effectively carrying what little oxygen is still entering through the lungs.

Likewise on a society-wide level COVID-19 is hardly a serious illness. 

It really only presents a threat to life to around 10% of the population. An easily indentifiable 10% of the population. Whose lives were probably going to be at risk anyway. For reasons that I'll get into in more detail later COVID-19 also seems to come with its own, in-built, self-destruct mechanism.

However it triggers this sort of primal fear. The fear of the unknown. The fear of not being in control. 

This plunges a certain type of political leader into some sort of existential crisis. Causing them to panic, over-react and start launching damaging attacks on society. Such as ordering it to be entirely shut-down.

The official name given to the COVID-19 virus is; "Severe, Acute Respiratory Syndrome - Coronavirus - 2 (SARS-CoV-2). 

I'm going to assume that this was intended as a deliberate mistake. Designed to immediately shake the intellectual chaff from the wheat.

In medicine a Syndrome is defined as the presence of a set of symptoms. 

In this case; Laboured breathing (Dyspnea); A breathing rate greater than 30 breaths per minute; Low blood oxygen saturation (Hypomexia); Fluid in the lungs growing at a rate above 50% per 24-48 hours. Even if the worried well still seem fixated on their sense of smell.

A virus is a living organism. Like all other living organisms it is defined by its unique genetic code. DNA, or in this case, RNA. Essentially the same thing in laymen's terms.

Probably the most well know examples of this division is the Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV). In almost all cases this causes Acquired Immuno-Deficiency Syndrome (AIDS). So on an extremely technical level no-one has ever died of HIV. Although tens of millions have died of the syndrome that particular virus causes.

What you cannot do is include the word; "Syndrome" in the name of a virus.

Well, obviously you can. Language being a human construct after all.

It's just that if you do. Then you immediately start looking like a complete idiot.

Particularly if you're the sort of person who has built their entire reputation upon being a supposed expert on HIV/AIDS.

Whatever you call it COVID-19 certainly seems to hold some very strong views on this claim that; "Black Lives Matter."

Although, curiously, not all black lives. Just the fat, lazy and self-indulgent black lives who are constantly looking for a payout from the city. To go along with their free; "Obama Phones."

COVID-19 has also provided us with a clear answer to the question which seems to have been pondered a lot at late;

Q. How would this "Generation Snowflake" cope in anything like a crisis?

A. Not. At. All.

Most of COVID-19's fury though seems to be directed at global efforts to combat climate change. Particularly the Paris Agreement.

There are so many things just completely wrong with the Paris Agreement. Listing them would be a seperate exercise in itself. However the main one is that unlike the Kyoto Protocol it has absolutely no legal force. Instead nations are simply going to promise to try.

At the height of the global lockdown - May 2020 - global Greenhouse Gas (ghg) emissions fell by 17%. So substantial was this sudden cessation of much of human activity it also caused the vibrations on the Earth's surface to fall by 50%.  

The Paris Agreement does not aim to eliminate Climate Change. Instead it aims to limit the rise in temperature to 2C. This will require a reduction of ghg emissions by 78% from the baseline established in the agreement.

The Paris Agreement aspires to limit the rise in temperature to 1.5C. This will require a reduction of ghg emissions by 99% of the established baseline.

COVID-19  has clearly shown us how much of human activity will simply have to stop. In order to achieve just a 17% reduction in ghg emissions from the established baseline.

It has also clearly shown us how completely unrealistic it is to think that governments, politicans and just each of us as people are going to do that voluntarily. Based on nothing more than a pinky promise. Made between people, many of whom, are already out of office.

Not only is it completely unrealistic to think the Paris Agreement will achieve its aims. The aims of the Paris Agreement also just completely ignore large sources of ghg emissions. Chiefly from Shipping and Aviation.

The shipping sector has been extremely hard hit by the lockdowns associated with COVID-19. While the aviation sector has been almost completely destroyed.

Assesments and estimates are still ongoing. However it seems that it will take until 2024 for the aviation sector to return to its 2019 levels of operation. This almost exactly mirrors the first, five year commitment period of the Paris Agreement.

It's as if the environment has taken one look at the Paris Agreement and gone;

"Not counting aviation in the first commitment period. Well, then you can't have any aviation during the first commitment period."

Speaking for many within the UNFCCC process the objective is not to eliminate human, economic activity. Instead it is to combine human, economic development with a reduction in ghg emissions. Ultimately making economic development a tool for emissions reduction.

One of the main challenges people with that attitude face is what's known as; "John Locke's Labour Theory of Property."

Dating back to the 17th Century this is still considered one of the cornerstones of economics. It states that the natural environment is a gift from God to all. So the only way that humans can take ownership of anything and profit from it is by altering it through their labour.

In life we have these wonderful machines. Which scrub ghg's from the air. Turning them into oxygen for us to breathe along with food and fuel for us to use. They are called trees.

However Locke's Labour Theory of Property dictates that no-one can be paid simply for not cutting a down tree.

So we're forced to cut down all these trees. Then spend the profits on trying to invent machines that are even fractionally as good at scrubbing ghg's from the air. While turning them into things which are useful to us.

The way we've responded to COVID-19 has really highlighted just this issue.

There are two ways in which virus' are eliminated;

Firstly they are so aggressive that they rapidly kill anyone they infect. This prevents them from spreading to new hosts and without hosts they die. Fortunately most virus' of this type wiped themselves out thousands of years ago.

Alternatively a virus eliminates itself by not being aggressive enough. The people it infects survive and develop immunity to the virus. Eventually everybody is immune so the virus has no hosts to spread to. Meaning that it dies.

This second scenario is know as; "Herd Immunity." It is the principle behind every vaccination program there has ever been.

COVID-19 seems to come with its own built-in vaccine. It's self-destruct mechanism.

Herd Immunity is normally achieved when 60-70% of the population has been infected and become immune. Either by catching the virus or being injected with it in the form of a vaccine.

COVID-19 only has a serious effect on an easily identifiable 10% of the population. A further 45% of the population will only experience mild symptoms. Similar to that of a Common Cold. A further 45% still will experience absolutely no symptoms whatsoever.

Meaning that COVID-19 puts you over halfway to herd immunity without anyone ever even noticing that they were ill. Including people who experience only mild symptoms puts you at 90% immunity. Well over the 70% upper threshold required for herd immunity and elimination of the virus.

Furthermore COVID-19 is a droplet-borne disease. These means that to survive the virus cells need to be enveloped in a sack of moisture. Otherwise they will dehydrate and die.

COVID-19 really struck globally in March of 2020. Which for the northern hemisphere is the start of spring. Inevitibly leading to summer this is the start of a period where ambient moisture is low. Meaning that these virus cells will dehydrate faster and die faster. Making the spread of the disease much easier to predict and manage.

I am well aware of the global-north/global-south debate within UNFCCC circles. However the majority of the planet's human population live in the northern hemisphere. What we're talking about here is humidity rather than heat per se. Around the equator that doesn't change much with the seasons. At least for now. 

Also humans are, to an extent, solar powered. In summer temperatures they need to use less energy to maintain things like body heat. In winter temperatures they need to use more. Not all of us will be able to muster the energy to fight off COVID-19 and the winter weather.

Unfortunately Locke's Labour Theory of Property dictates that no-one can profit from simply letting nature take its course.

So instead we've had to endure all these onerous restrictions imposed upon us. Simply to buy time to allow a drug company to profit from selling us a vaccine which was ours all along.

All infections are fought by the body's immune system. HIV/AIDS is an infection which destroys the immune system. So the discussion of any infection rapidly starts sounding like a discussion about HIV/AIDS.

T-cells, B-cells, White Blood Cells etc. The difference being that with HIV/AIDS you have too few T-cells. With COVID-19 the issue, if anything, seems that you end up with too many T-cells.

HIV/AIDS is endemic across Sub-Saharan Africa. I think some 30% of all deaths in South Africa each year are HIV/AIDS related. 

How HIV/AIDS kills is particularly cruel and damaging on an economic, systemic level. Essentially people infected as babies die in their 30's and 40's. Just when they would be at their economic and social peak. Having babies of their own etc.

So it is impossible to have a serious discussion about economic development in Sub-Saharan Africa without also having a complete, working knowledge of HIV/AIDS.

Sub-Saharan Africa is also home to the second largest concentration of these magical, ghg scrubbing machines. The Rain Forest in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC).

So to say that UNFCCC discussions often overlap with HIV/AIDS discussions is an understatement. One of the leading HIV/AIDS charities is; (RED). The UNFCCC's main fund to protect Rain Forests is; REDD+.

There is an episode of the US TV Show; "The Big Bang Theory" in which the characters are playing a card game. Similar to; "The Sims" computer game.

The Sheldon character announces that he has wood. Now he just needs sheep. He continues like this, oblivious to the obvious sexual innuendo. While all the other characters fall about laughing.

Everybody in UNFCCC circles have been in meetings like that.

Particularly the way that Britain has reacted to the COVID-19 seems to have highlighted a very specific flaw in the Paris Agreement.

Like I've said the Paris Agreement is not the comprehensive agreement to combat climate change that I, and the UNFCCC spent five years negotiating. 

Instead it is an alternative text introduced by former US President Obama, at the last minute. Which we all then signed up to under the barrel of ISIL's guns.

Well, I say; "All." Rather like America under President Trump my name is very firmly not on the Paris Agreement.

In those five years of negotiations a significant issue was identified. The Annex I nations have actually gone to great lengths to reduce their ghg emissions. Any further reductions will now be small and hugely expensive.

In contrast the Annex II parties can make huge ghg reductions for what are, to some, very small amounts of money. It's just that the Annex II parties don't have even those small amounts of money needed to make those large ghg reductions.

The Obama-free negotiations solved this problem. With what's known as; "The New Zealand Text. Or; "The Hybrid Falcon Text." Although I think; "Chimera Text" is perhaps more appropriate. Given how every brilliant brain was able to tack on their own little bit. As it bounced around the room.

The Chimera Text would see Annex I parties basically pay Annex II parties to make those large ghg emission reductions. Those emission reductions would then be counted partly as a reduction made by the nation where it happened. Partly as a reduction made by the nation which paid for it.

Although I can't over-emphasise how much I'm using the word; "Basically" here.

Obama's last minute draft very aggressively removed any concept of the Chimera Text from the Paris Agreement.

Britain reacted to COVID-19 by going into a full lockdown, very early on. They also introduced this hugely expensive Job Retention (Furlough) scheme. To pay everyone not to get vaccinated against COVID-19 in the spring and summer months.

As with Climate Change those huge, early efforts, did not solve the problem. Now autumn is here Britain is left, near broke, once again having to spend huge amounts of money. Simply to try and shave small reductions off the looming death toll.

So COVID-19 seems to have identified that weakness in the Paris Agreement. 

Then attacked it. Hard.

Continued in Part 2; https://watchitdie.blogspot.com/2020/10/the-2020-us-presidential-election-covid_33.html

 

17:00 on 11/10/20 (UK date).