Middle East, North Africa.

Sub-title: "Operation Featherweight: Month 58, Week 2, Day 6."

Once again I have found myself called away from the conflict in Syria. To deal with the issue of Brexit. Britain's exit from the European Union (EU).

Frustratingly Brexit has still not been resolved.

The issue is likely to flare up again around the time of the EU Parliament elections. Held between May 23rd (23/5/19) and May 26th (26/5/19). It is also likely to flare up again when the EU Council (EUCO) formally review progress on the issue at a summit in June 2019.

Currently the British Parliament is on holiday. There are no indications that the British government has any strategy of how to move forward on Brexit.

This makes it hard to predict what that strategy is and what its impacts will be. However it is fair to assume the Brexit issue will flare up at least one more time between June and when the latest Brexit extension expires in October 2019.

This is hugely annoying for me. I'm still trying to catch up from the last time I was pulled away to deal with Brexit. In December 2018 through to January 2019. This was the month where everything seemed to happen in Syria.

The conflict in Syria can be divided into five areas of operations;

Shangri-La: This is located in the north-east of Syria. It is essentially everything to the north-east of the Euphrates River.

Shangri-La is now under the complete control of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF/QSD). A coalition of Kurdish, Arab, Turkmen and Assyrian forces. Backed by the US-led coalition, Combined Joint Task Force: Operation Inherent Resolve (CJTFOIR).

Garvaghy Road: This area stretches roughly 100km (60 miles) west from the point where the Euphrates enters Syria from Turkey. The western boundary of the Shangri-La area.

Garvaghy Road is under the occupation of Turkish forces. Both members of the regular Turkish military (TSK) and the irregular United Turkmen Army (UTA).

The UTA are an offshoot of the "Grey Wolves" paramilitary wing of the fascist Turkish National Movement Party (MHP). Which is now aligned with the Islamist Justice & Development Party (AKP).

Afrin Canton: A traditionally Kurdish area of Syria this stretches roughly 50km (30 miles) west from the boundary with Garvaghy Road.

As with Garvaghy Road the Afrin Canton area of Syria is under the occupation of Turkish forces. Both members of the regular Turkish military (TSK) and the irregular United Turkmen Army (UTA).

The Sudetenland: This stretches roughly 130km (80 miles) south from its boundary with Afrin Canton. It actually stretches across four of Syria's provinces. However is primarily centred around Idlib City, the capital of Idlib Province.

The Sudetenland is wholly under the occupation of Al Qaeda. Using the name; "Organisation for the Liberation of the Levant/Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS)."

In November 2018 Al Qaeda declared the Sudetenland to be the; "Idlib Emirate." A separate country, apart from Syria.

In January 2019 all groups, armed and political, in the Sudetenland declared themselves to be under the full command of Al Qaeda.

Within the Sudetenland Al Qaeda are under the protection of the regular Turkish military. Who operate a network of small military bases along the boundary of the area.

Central Syria: This is all the parts of Syria which are not otherwise designated. It is under the control of the Syrians themselves.

I would refer to the area simply as; "Syria." However that would grant undue legitimacy to Turkey's occupation of the Garvaghy Road and Afrin Canton areas. Along with Al Qaeda's declaration that the Sudetenland is a separate nation.

The Central Syria area was largely established by a nearly year long Syrian operation in 2017. In both the north and the south of the country this saw them advance from west to east.

In the north of the country the Syrians set out from Aleppo City in May 2017. By late July 2017 this northern axis had arrived at and liberated the town of Dalhah which sits on the southern bank of the Euphrates.

To the south of the country the Syrians set out from the Syrian capital Damascus. Also in May 2017. By early June 2017 this southern axis had reached the border between Syria and Iraq at the town of al-Tanf.

From al-Tanf the Syrians then advanced on the city of Palmyra which sits almost exactly in the centre of Syria. Palmyra had been liberated from ISIL by the Syrians in March 2017.

In August 2017 Syrian forces from both Palmyra and Dalhah converged on the town of as-Suknah. From there they began the operation to liberate the southern banks of the Euphrates.

In December 2017 the Syrians liberated the towns of Qataa, Jalaa, Ramadi and Buqan. This allowed them to declare the southern bank of the Euphrates fully liberated from ISIL.

The Central Syria area was expanded in February 2018. With a Syrian operation to liberate the East Qalamoun Mountains area. Along with the East Ghouta and Yarmouk Camp for Palestinian Refugees in the suburbs of Damascus. This was completed in May 2018 with the Syrians taking full control of the Yarmouk Camp.

The Central Syria area was further expanded in June 2018. With a Syrian operation to liberate the Yarmouk River Basin area. An area on Syria's borders with Israel and Lebanon made up of the basin of the Yarmouk River. This was completed in August 2018 with the Syrians taking full control of the area.

The expansion of the Central Syria are made one thing clear to all. Despite the claims of the past eight years there has always been a military solution to the conflict in Syria.

Not only that, the military solution has succeeded. The war has been all but won by the Syrians.

Nothing in war can ever be described as easy. However in comparison to what they have already achieved it will not present much of a challenge for the Syrians to liberate the Sudetenland from Al Qaeda.

It is then merely a question of Turkey withdrawing its occupation forces from the country.

Despite the propaganda the Syrian government has always been keen to introduce democratic change to the country. This actually led to them being unduly tolerant when the invasion began back in 2011. They should've struck much harder, much faster in order to nip it in the bud.

Any political change in Syria will now come from negotiations between the Syrians and the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF).

The SDF are actually in a very strong position ahead of these future negotiations. The Shangri-La area under their control contains most, but not all, of Syria's oil and gas fields.

Over this past winter that has caused significant fuel shortages in the Central Syria area. In January 2019 Syria was forced to import 2,400 tonnes of natural gas from Iran. A huge embarrassment for what has traditionally been an oil producing and oil exporting nation.

The only thing which can weaken the SDF's hand in these negotiations is the withdrawal of international, CJTFOIR support. That would leave the SDF at the mercy of further Turkish aggression, forcing them to rely on the Syrians for security.

With it clear that the war is now all but won efforts have been underway to restore normal relations with and apologise to Syria. Both from its regional neighbours and from nations more globally.

For example the border between Syria and Jordan was re-opened in July 2018. In December 2018 the 1999 Land Transport Treaty between Syria and Jordan was reactivated. This allows Jordanian vehicles to use Syrian roads and vice versa.

The border between Syria and Lebanon was re-opened in October 2018.  In June 2018 Lebanon began repatriating Syrian refugees with around 100,000 returning by the end of the year.

Work has also begun reconnecting Syria to the international system of transport and trade.

For example in November 2018 Syria was added to the International Maritime Organisations (IMO) White List. Allowing Syrian ships to dock at ports globally without having to undergo safety inspections.

December 2018 saw the first direct flight between Syria and Tunisia since 2011. This is significant because Tunisia was the first Arab state to overthrow its dictator, in January 2011. A spirit of revolution which was hijacked in the efforts to invade Syria and overthrow its government.

Syrian diplomats have once again found themselves welcome in regional capitals. Along with foreign diplomats suddenly being prepared to visit Syria once again.

For example a delegation from the Jordanian Parliament visited Damascus on November 19th 2018 (19/11/19). To meet with Syrian President Bashar al-Assad.

On December 22nd 2018 (22/12/18) Ali Mamlouk, head of Syria's National Security Bureau was invited to Cairo. In order to meet with his Egyptian counterpart. In early January 2019 Mamlouk visited Saudi Arabia to meet with his counterpart there.

On December 29th 2018 (29/12/18) it was Faleh al-Fayyadh, Iraq's National Security adviser, who visited Mamlouk in Damascus. A significant development with relations between Syria and Iraq having been strained since the US invasion of Iraq back in 2003.

On December 27th 2018 (27/12/18) the United Arab Emirates (UAE) re-opened its Embassy to Syria in Damascus. Fully re-establishing full diplomatic ties. On December 28th 2018 (28/12/18) Bahrain followed suit. Also re-opening its Embassy in Damascus, re-establishing full diplomatic ties with Syria.

This prompted a number of European nations to deny that they were also restoring full diplomatic ties with Syria by re-opening their Embassies in Damascus. Most notably Britain and France who issued formal denials on January 8th 2019 (8/1/19).

Britain's denial was particularly prompted by the fact it has spent several months carrying out extensive restoration and renovation work at its Embassy in Damascus. The sort of thing you would do if you were just about to re-open the Embassy.

On January 11th 2019 (11/1/19) Italy issued a statement regarding its Embassy to Syria in Damascus. Italy stopped short of denying that it was preparing to re-establish full diplomatic ties with Syria.

Instead Italy declared that it is considering re-opening its Embassy in Damascus. Consideration which seems to be at an advanced stage. Given the extensive restoration and renovation work Italy has been carrying out at its Embassy.

This flurry of diplomatic activity has been part of a concerted effort to have Syria re-admitted to the Arab League. A powerful region body which Syria was suspended from following the invasion in 2011.

Syria's re-admittance to the Arab League was a discussion topic on the agenda of the Arab Economic Summit. Scheduled to be held in Beirut, Lebanon on January 20th 2019 (20/1/19).

However the entire Arab Economic Summit had to be cancelled.

Following the last minute withdrawal of the Libyan Government of National Accord (GNA). Ostensibly in protest at the Libyan flag being replaced by the flag of the Lebanese Amal Movement. A Shia group whose leader Imam Musa Sadr is believed to have been assassinated by Libya in 1978.

The Libyan Government of National Accord (GNA) is often referred to as; "The Legitimate Government of Libya." Despite its backing by the United Nations (UN) this claim has always been pretty laughable.

Following the overthrow of Libyan leader Muammer Qaddafi in 2011 Qatar, as part of the Muslim Brotherhood, attempted to establish a puppet regime to control Libya's vast oil reserves. At the Parliamentary elections in 2012.

This involved the establishment of The Nation/Al-Watan Party. A very clear reference to the famous Qatari newspaper of the same name. To further emphasise al-Watan's links to Qatar its party colours of purple and white. The same purple and white of Qatar's national flag.

However the al-Watan Party was merely a ruse. Intended to drive voters into the arms of the main Qatar backed party by tricking them into thinking they were voting against Qatari and Muslim Brotherhood interference in the country.

The main Qatar and Muslim Brotherhood party in Libyan politics is the Justice & Construction Party. Led by Misrata based Mohamed Sowan.

The Libyan Justice & Construction Party are not to be confused with the Justice & Development Party of Turkey's Muslim Brotherhood Prime Minister/President/Emperor Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Nor is it to be confused with the Freedom & Justice Party of Egypt's short-lived Muslim Brotherhood President Mohamed Morsi.

Despite this ruse neither the Justice & Construction Party nor the al-Watan Party were able to win a majority in the Libyan Parliament. So instead they set about obstructing the Parliament. Eventually overthrowing it, forcing it into exile in the eastern Libyan city of Benghazi.

Under the military command of Khalifa Haftar this legitimate Libyan government in Benghazi has been steadily reestablishing its control over the country. The only two areas of Libya that remain under the illegitimate GNA's control are the cities of Tripoli and Misrata.

On April 5th 2019 (5/4/19) Libya's legitimate government announced an operation to liberate both Tripoli and Misrata from the GNA.

So it doesn't look as though British police will have to wait much longer to question the Tripoli based Hashem Abedi. Brother of Salman Abedi, perpetrator of the May 2017 Manchester Arena bombing.

The most significant diplomatic development in the Central Syria area came on December 15th 2018 (15/12/18).

This saw then Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir visit Damascus. To meet with Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. This was the first visit to Syria by a foreign Head of State since the invasion began in 2011.

Omar al-Bashir became Sudan's President in 1989 following an Islamic Revolution. This revolution was ideologically inspired by Iran's 1979 Islamic Revolution. In fact Sudan is probably the only place where Iran has been able to export its brand of Revolutionary Islam, despite 40 years of trying.

As a result Sudan was long closely allied with Iran. Emerging as a major smuggling route for Iranian weapons to the Hamas group in the Gaza area of Palestine.

Due to its alliance with Iran, and particularly due to its role in supplying weapons to Hamas Sudan has long been a major enemy of Israel.

In February 2003 the Justice & Equality Movement (JEM) began an armed insurgency against the Sudanese government in the Darfur region of the country. This became known as; "The War in Darfur or; "The Landcruiser War."

The Darfur War broke out during a particularly violent period in relations between Israel and Palestine. The Second Intifada of 2000 until 2005.

In order to deflect from its mistreatment of the Palestinians during the Second Intifada Israel, and other Zionist Jews demanded to know why they were being singled out for criticism.

While the international community was seeming to ignore the wildly exaggerated 'atrocities' being committed by the Sudanese government in Darfur.

In September 2004 through to October 2004 Israel conducted; "Operation: Days of Penitence" against Hamas in Gaza.

This led to a massive deterioration in relations between Israel and the international community, particularly the UN.

Israel openly accused the UN Relief Works Agency (UNRWA) of employing Hamas members. Even showing footage of a UNRWA ambulance allegedly being used to transport Hamas rockets to be fired into Israel.

In response to these accusations the UN very sarcastically listened to Israel's demand that; "They should focus on Darfur!" 

In 2005 the UN Security Council (UNSC) instructed the International Criminal Court (ICC) to open an investigation into Crimes Against Humanity in Darfur. An investigation that was only ever intended as a euphemism for Israel's Crimes Against Humanity in Palestine.

In the summer of 2006 Israel launched its war against Lebanon. In the winter of 2008 Israel launched it's brutal; "Operation: Cast Lead" against Gaza. Primarily just in an effort to rig the upcoming Israeli election in favour of Tzipi Livni.

In response the UN attempted to ratchet up its pressure on Israel. Using Sudan and Darfur as a euphemism.

In July 2008 the ICC filed 10 charges of War Crimes and Crimes Against Humanity against President Omar al-Bashir. Including the most serious, genocide or extermination.

In March 2009 the ICC issued an arrest warrant on those charges. The first, and only time such an arrest warrant has been issued for a sitting Head of State.

The thing about the War in Darfur is that it was never even the most serious conflict in Sudan. That honour went to the 1983-2005 Second Sudanese Civil War.

Here the UN went to ridiculous extremes to use Sudan as a euphemism for the Israel/Palestine conflict. To solve the Second Sudanese Civil War they partitioned the country. Establishing the new nation of South Sudan in 2011.

This is the famous; "Two State Solution" that has long been pursued as a solution to the Israel/Palestine conflict.

Unfortunately for the UN it was a disaster. The new nation of South Sudan immediately descended into its own brutal civil war.

Just on December 15th 2018 (15/12/18) the US imposed sanctions on retired Israel Major General Israel Ziv. For violating an international arms embargo to supply both sides in the South Sudan Civil War. In order to keep the conflict going.

In a clear attempt to show the international community that; "The Two State Solution Just Does Not Work!"

The ICC arrest warrants against Omar al-Bashir have always been considered a bit of a joke. Particularly amongst Arab nations in the Middle-East. Who know exactly what Israel can be like at its worst.

One thing which really helped Omar al-Bashir resist the international pressure though was that in 2016 Sudan broke off relations with Iran. This allowed Sudan to form a new alliance with Iran's powerful regional rival Saudi Arabia.

Therefore there was a specific significance in Omar al-Bashir being the first Head of State to visit Syria since 2011.

It was to show Syrian President Bashar al-Assad a possible route to reintegration with the international community. He too needed to break off Syria's longstanding alliance with Iran.

The problem has been that in the spring of 2017 there was a massive split amongst the Gulf Arab states. Between Saudi Arabia and Qatar.

The main cause of this split has been Qatar's nominal support for Iran. In contrast to Saudi Arabia's staunch opposition to Iran. A close second is Qatar's support for the Muslim Brotherhood.

On the issue of the Muslim Brotherhood Saudi Arabia and its allies are particularly aggrieved with the group's role in Turkey's invasion and occupation of Syria. Along with the group's role in propping up the Libyan GNA.

The final straw which triggered the split was the Muslim Brotherhood's bombing of Britain's Manchester Arena on May 22nd 2017 (22/5/17).

In an effort to influence the upcoming British General Election in favour of the Labour Party. In order to trigger the Brexit chaos that Britain now finds itself engulfed in.

Omar al-Bashir visited Syria on December 15th 2018 (15/12/18) at the request of Saudi Arabia. Qatar's response was to use the Muslim Brotherhood to trigger 'Popular Protests' against President Bashir in Sudan.

Exactly the same sort of horrible 'Popular Protests' we saw in Libya in 2011 leading the war.

Then again in Syria in 2011 leading to the war.

We also saw these 'Popular Protests' in Egypt in the summer of 2013. Just after the Freedom & Justice President Mohamed Morsi had been deposed by a genuine popular uprising.

In Britain the media has found time to cover nothing but Brexit.

However on the rare occasions that they are mentioned the Sudan protests are wrongly attributed to complaints about the cost of living, particularly the price of bread. A mistake which is common in much of the western media.

Sudan has seen significant increases in the cost of living. These are the result of austerity measures imposed by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) which have seen the currency devalued and subsidies for electricity and wheat, to make bread, being cut.

However those IMF austerity measures came into effect back in January 2018.

It took until four days after President al-Bashir's visit to Syria for the first organised protests to break out. Starting in the city Atbara on December 19th 2018 (19/12/18). 



I'm going to have to pick this up tomorrow.

18:00 on 16/4/19 (UK date).