Operation Featherweight: Month 40, Week 1, Day 3.

In the summer of 2014 the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) overran northern Iraq.

The eastern part of northern Iraq is dominated by the Iraqi Kurdish Region. Populated primarily by members of the Kurdish ethnic group this has its own Parliament and its own government. It also has its own security force known as the Peshmerga.

Immediately following the arrival of ISIL the Peshmerga were dispatched to the city of Kirkuk. This sits around 95km (60 miles) south of Erbil - the capital of the Iraqi Kurdish Region - and around 50km (30 miles) outside of the Kurdish Region.

In November 2015 the Peshmerga reached the now infamous town of Sinjar/Shingal. When ISIL first swept into this town it was scene to the genocide of Kurdish residents of the town who follow the Yezidi faith which triggered the international fight against ISIL.

Sinjar/Shingal is located around 250km (150 miles) west of Erbil and around 130km (80 miles) outside of the Iraqi Kurdish Region.

In October 2017 an operation was launched to liberate the city of Mosul from ISIL. This is located around 200km (120 miles) west of Erbil and around 45km (25 miles) outside of the Iraqi Kurdish Region.

The operation to liberate Mosul was primarily carried out by the Iraqi Security Forces (ISF). However the Peshmerga did perform a supporting role securing the outskirts to the city.

To the north this saw the Peshmerga take up positions at the town Tal Kayf. This sits 8km (5 miles) north of Mosul and around 50km (30 miles) outside of the Iraqi Kurdish Region.

To the east the Peshmerga took up positions at the twin towns of Bashiqa & Barzani. These sit around 12km (7 miles) east of Mosul and around 30km (15 miles) outside of the Iraqi Kurdish Region.

To the south the Peshmerga took up positions at the town of Makhmur. This sits around 70km (40 miles) south of Mosul and around 50km (30 miles) outside of the Iraqi Kurdish Region.

On July 9th 2017 (9/6/17) Mosul was finally liberated from ISIL.

The ISF's next task was to liberate an area known as the; "Hawija Triangle." Centred around the town of Hawija this sits around 100km (60 miles) south of Erbil. It's three corners are made up of Tikrit, Baiji and Kirkuk.

Following a short operation the Hawija Triangle was liberated on October 5th (5/10/17). This effectively limits ISIL presence in Iraq to a small area in the west of Anbar Province where the Euphrates River enters Iraq from Syria.

With the war effectively won the next step was for the Peshmerga to return to the Iraqi Kurdish Region and return their positions outside of the region to the Iraqi Central Government in Baghdad. Starting with the oil fields that sit between the Hawija Triangle and Kirkuk.

The problem though has been the Barzanis who have positioned themselves as the ruling family of the Iraqi Kurkish Region. While the Iraqis have been fighting ISIL both the President of the Iraqi Kurdish Region Masoud Barzani and the Prime Minister Nechirvan Barzani have got this mad idea into their heads.

They've decided that if they can seize Kirkuk's oil fields they can sell that oil through a pipeline running through Turkey. They can use the proceeds of that stolen oil to declare the Iraqi Kurdish Region to be an independent nation state.

Presumably a state in which the Barzanis act as the ruling dynasty. Rather like the Kim's in the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK/North).

This plan is so deeply flawed I still can't understand why the Barzanis believed in it in the first place.

Firstly international law prevents the Iraqi Kurdish Region or any other region in a United Nations (UN) member state unilaterally declaring itself to be an independent nation.

Secondly Turkey hates the Kurds waging war against them in Turkey, Syria and Iraq. Therefore it is certainly not going to assist the Iraqi Kurdish Region becoming an independent nation state.

The Barzanis though remain committed to their pipedream. So they refused to negotiate the transfer of positions between the Peshmerga and the Iraqi Security Forces (ISF). Instead the Barzanis ordered the Peshmerga to fight the ISF risking Iraq as a whole being plunged into civil war.

As a result last Friday (13/10/17) the Iraqi Central Government were forced to issue the Peshmerga which an ultimatum; Cede their positions outside of the Iraqi Kurdish Region to the ISF by last Sunday (15/10/17) or face being removed from them by force.

The October 15th (15/10/17) deadline came and went. Showing remarkable restraint the Iraqi Central Government gave the Peshmerga a further 24hrs to comply with both international and domestic Iraqi law.

By Monday (16/10/17) the Peshmerga had still not returned to the Iraqi Kurdish Region. So the ISF were forced to move in to takeover the Peshmerga positions by force if necessary. Starting with the K1 Base complex which controls access to Kirkuk's oil fields.

Fortunately the Peshmerga largely refused to follow the Barzanis' wholly illegal order. This allow the ISF to generally peacefully secure the K1 Base complex by early afternoon on Monday (16/10/17) and Kirkuk city itself by the evening.

On Tuesday (17/10/17) Peshmerga based at Sinjar/Shingal and Bashiqa & Barzani also refused the Barzanis illegal orders and peacefully surrendered their positions to the ISF.

On Wednesday (18/10/17) the Peshmerga peacefully surrendered their remaining positions around the city of Mosul. This meant that the Peshmerga had fully returned to the Iraqi Kurdish Region. The exception being a small area in the Kirkuk municipal area.

The problem throughout this process has been the Barzanis repeated threats to use the Peshmerga to attack the ISF. This has forced the ISF to bring their maximum force to bear in the operation so they could quickly win any battle that broke out. That maximum force includes the Popular Mobilisation Force (PMF) militias.

The PMF are - at last count - actually made up of 64 separate militias. The quality of these groups vary widely. However as militias they all tend to be less well trained and poorly disciplined in comparison to the professional troops of the Iraqi military and Federal Police.

Ironically one of the larger and more effective militias in the PMF is the Badr Army. They were formed during the Iran-Iraq War to fight alongside Iraq's Kurds against the dictatorship of Saddam Hussein.

Unfortunately many of Barzanis supporters seem to have forgotten that. Along with the support that Iran gave to Masoud Barzani's father Mustafa Barzani before and during the 1968 Ba'ath Coup which brought Saddam Hussein to power.

Therefore there has been some concern that the animosity of Iraqi Kurds coupled with the ill discipline of the PMF could result in further confrontation and unrest.

The Iraqi Central Government were aware of this. So as soon as the Peshmerga peacefully returned to the Iraqi Kurdish Region on Wednesday (18/10/17) the Iraqi Central Government ordered the withdrawal of the PMF leaving security in the hands of the local police and the Federal Police.

Sadly though the Barzanis aggression has continued.

On Thursday (19/10/17) the Peshmerga commander Kamal Kirkuki announced that he was deploying his forces to Kirkuk and would launch an attack to expel the ISF. This triggered a mass exodus of civilians from Kirkuk fleeing the expected battle.

As I was made aware of Kirkuki's comments yesterday morning I commented that such behaviour made it almost impossible for the Iraqi Central Government to continue to exercise restraint by pretending they hadn't heard this clear call to armed insurrection.

My point was then almost instantly proved when a Court in Baghdad issued a warrant for Kirkuki's arrest. However showing continued restraint they are only pursuing a charge of insulting the Iraqi military despite Kirkuki being clear in his call for civil war.

Today (20/10/17) there has been another flare up at the town of Alton Kupri. This sits well within the Kirkuk Municipal area around 50km (30 miles) north of Kirkuk city. It sits just outside the Iraqi Kurdish Region around 70km (40 miles) south of the regional capital Erbil.

As the ISF moved in to take control of Alton Kupri the Peshmerga opened fire on them with artillery. This forced the ISF to respond with artillery fire of their own. By around 09:00 (12:00 local) the ISF had been able to push the Peshmerga back and take control of the town.

This type of reckless behaviour could well spell the end of the Barzani regime. It makes it extremely difficult for the Iraqi Central Government to explain why they haven't fully suspended the Iraqi Kurdish Region's autonomy and moved in to arrest the Barzanis and their co-conspirators.

Throughout the pursuit of their pipedream the Barzanis have frequently declared Spain's Catalonia Region as brothers of the Iraqi Kurdish Region in their respective quest for independence.

Yesterday (19/10/17) Spain very pointedly suspended the Spanish Catalonia Region's autonomy. They are likely to move ahead with elections early next year in which the current Catalan Regional President Carles Puigdemont will not be allowed to stand.

The Catalan Regional Government has certainly not gone so far as to destroy Spanish tanks and kill Spanish soldiers.

Although the end of autonomy for the Iraqi Kurdish Region would certainly change the equation in my eyes I can't say that the removal of the Barzanis would be a bad thing.

Before the Barzanis launched into their mad quest it was possible that the Iraqi Central Government could have been persuaded to allow the Kurdish Region to expand in the north-west to include Sinjar/Shingal.

There is no oil in that area and with the exception of the Mosul Dam and a few border crossings it is of limited strategic value. Plus the genocide which Kurdish Yezidis suffered in Sinjar/Shingal makes it very hard to explain why it is not included in the Kurdish Region. Almost as a form of compensation.

Although it is of limited strategic value to the Iraqi Central Government Sinjar/Shingal is directly across the border from the Shangri-La area of Syria which is controlled by the Kurdish dominated Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF/QSD).

In fact while the Iraqi Peshmerga arrived in Sinjar/Shingal in November 2015 it was the People's Protection Units (YPG) who crossed the border and climbed the mountains to end the genocide in the summer of 2014.

They went on to form the Sinjar/Shingal Protection Units (YBS) who have just helped to liberate the Syrian city of Raqqa as part of the SDF.

As with the rest of Syria the fate of the SDF controlled Shangri-La is still very much up for discussion. However an Iraqi-style autonomous Kurdish Region is a distinct possibility.

Over time having these two autonomous regions standing shoulder-to-shoulder would strengthen both. Possibly leading to a single independent nation state.

Instead though the Barzanis have abandoned all that in favour of focusing on this plan to steal Kirkuk's oil and pump it out through Turkey.

Kirkuk is responsible for - I think - roughly half of Iraq's total oil output. Therefore it is obviously going to be the last thing that the Iraqi Central Government would be prepared to give up.

In relying on Turkey to pump Kirkuk's oil the Barzanis have been forced to go to war with Syria's Kurds.

In 2016 Turkish President/Prime Minister/Emperor Recep Tayyip Erdogan was desperate for a way to defeat the SDF. So the Barzanis happily trained a rival force - the Roj Peshmerga - in the Iraqi Kurdish Region. In March 2017 the Barzanis even sent the Roj Peshmerga to attack the YBS at Sinjar/Shingal.

The Barzanis decision to destroy the relationship between Syria's Kurds and Iraq's Kurds is actually causing a very immediate problem in the fight against ISIL.

The SDF are currently moving along the northern bank of the Euphrates River to the Syria/Iraq border. This takes them across the Khobar River. If the Barzanis hadn't sent the Roj Peshmerga to attack the SDF back in March we could think about bringing the SDF into Iraq. They could then re-enter Syria pushing up from the border towards the Khobar.

Instead though the Barzanis have decided to pursue the seizure of Kirkuk at all costs. A strategy that hasn't even left them in control of Kirkuk.

I'm inclined to think then that its time for the Barzanis mis-rule of the Iraqi Kurdish Region to come to an end.

In fact that Masoud Barzani's term as President of the Iraqi Kurdish Region actually came to an end in 2015.

They've just cancelled elections scheduled for November.

16:25 on 20/10/17 (UK date).