Operation Oil Theft: Month 11, Week 2, Day 1.

This week a lot of things have happened in Libya. Few of them have been good.

For several months there have been protests against the National Transitional Council (NTC) due to it's perceived lack of transparency and a perceived bias towards western Libya. The heart of these protests has been the Ghar Yunis university in Benghazi. Last Friday (20/1/12) the deputy chair of the NTC Abdelhafiz Ghoga addressed students there to answer accusations that because he switched allegiance from the Qaddafi government to the NTC at the last minute he is nothing more then a self serving political opportunist. His answers clearly didn't go down well with the protesters who physically attacked him forcing him to flee. The following day (21/1/12) a much larger group of protesters from a wider range of backgrounds gathered outside the NTC's HQ in Benghazi and proceeded to attack the building with petrol bombs, grenades and high explosives succeeding in setting fire to the building while the chair of the NTC Abdul Jalil was inside. All further NTC meetings in the east of Libya have been forced to be held in secret. The NTC responded to the violence by suspending all delegates representing Benghazi in a move that is only likely to fuel further accusations of bias. Abdelhafiz Ghoga immediately resigned from the NTC in what appears to be a cynical attempt to boost his popularity in the east which will do nothing to dispel allegations that he is a political opportunist.

Another issue that has fuelled anger towards the NTC is the two week consultation period on the new election law that ended on Friday (20/1/12). In response to the consultation the NTC has rather sensibly dropped a Qaddafi era ban on dual nationals running for political office that excluded most of the talented Libyan diaspora and now intends to divide the country into electoral districts rather then having all candidates compete nationally. More worryingly they also dropped a ban on NTC members standing for election. This creates the risk that rather then doing their job properly NTC members will now abuse their positions in order to make sure they get elected. Most worrying of all though is that the NTC have dropped a quota reserving 10% of seats for women. Normally I'm not a fan of this sort of affirmative action because it often ends up with the minority it's supposed to protect becoming more marginalised as their credibility is reduced. Israel's quota for Palestinians and Iran's quota for Jews being prime examples. However Libyan society has historically been dominated by tribal culture and Islam neither of which place a particularly high value on women's rights. Therefore without a quota there is a very real risk that no female candidate will get elected meaning that women will have no say in the new Libya. The threat from militant Islam was demonstrated on Friday (20/1/12) when hundreds gathered in Tripoli calling for the adoption of a very strict interpretation of Sharia law. This follows and incident in Tripoli on Wednesday (18/1/12) when a militia took it upon themselves to arrest a man for drinking alcohol. His family and friends clearly saw things differently, got their guns and tried to free him leading to a gun battle that left at least one dead.

On Monday (23/1/12) members of Qaddafi's Warfalla tribe in Bani Walid rose up and threw the Zintan Brigade militia out of the town in a battle that left at least four dead. There are currently conflicting reports about who now controls the town. You may remember that along with Sirte and Sabha Bani Walid was one of the towns that kept fighting long after the fall of Tripoli. Then one day it suddenly stopped fighting and allowed the rebels in. This could have been because the townspeople suddenly had a change of heart but it is much more likely that the Qaddafi loyalists simply went into hiding in order to use the town as a base for a fightback once the NATO mission ended. This is supported by the fact that Bani Walid is where Saif al-Islam Qaddafi and Qaddafi spokesman Moussa Ibrahim were arrested. However from the way that tribal elders have been negotiating with the NTC following Monday's uprising suggests to me that rather then being the start of a new war it is simply another example of the Warfalla tribe using violence to win a bigger slice of Libya's wealth. That is a very dangerous route for Libya to go down because if it works then everyone will try it and Libya's dreams of freedom, security and democracy will become a distant memory.

On Thursday (26/1/12) the Office of the United Nations Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR) presented a report on the treatment of prisoners in post-Qaddafi Libya. It expressed serious concern that some 8,500 prisoners are being held without charge or trial and are being tortured in 60 detention centres operated by Libya's various rival militias. It corroborated a similar report by Amnesty International (AI) that found there was systematic torture of prisoners by both militias and apparatus of the NTC in detention centres in Tripoli, Gharain and Misrata. The type of torture included beatings with whips, rubber hoses and metal bars along with the administration of electric shocks. In at least three cases AI found that the level of torture was severe enough to kill the victim. Also on Thursday Medecins San Frontieres (MSF) announced that it would no longer be working alongside the Misrata Brigade militia in their detention centres after being repeatedly asked to treat torture victims between torture sessions in order to prolong their torture.

As for Libya's most famous prisoner on Monday (23/1/12) the Libyan Justice Minister Kablifa Ashour announced that the International Criminal Court (ICC) had given Libya permission to try Saif al-Islam Qaddafi on their own. He was immediately contradicted by the ICC who said that no decision had been made. The ICC went on to confirm that the NTC had provided them with information about Saif al-Islam's detention by the agreed deadline of 23/1/12. However the ICC refused to release any details so it is unclear if the NTC has been able to confirm who exactly is holding Saif al-Islam prisoner, that he is being humanely treated and is being given access to a legal defence. At this point I have to say that although I understand that there are strong emotional reasons I can think of no practical reason why anyone in Libya would want to try Saif al-Islam themselves. From a Libyan perspective the best case scenario is that Saif al-Islam is executed after a swift and unfair show trial. This will undoubtedly anger Qaddafi supporters and further increasing the already very high internal tensions within the country. It will also totally destroy the international reputation of the NTC and the new Libya. An even worse scenario is that Saif al-Islam is given a fair trial in which he is allowed to run a defence that he only did what he did in order to prevent the revolutionaries committing worse crimes. In light of the OHCHR, AI and MSF reports this is looking like a very plausible defence and could result in Saif al-Islam being acquitted. Even if he is found guilty merely holding a trial of this type will not only anger Qaddafi supporters but will pit revolutionary against revolutionary massively increasing the chances that the new Libya will descend into a Congolese style hell hole.

In fact one of the reasons why the ICC was set up was that once a newly freed nation had got rid of their dictator the ICC would pick up the load of bringing them to justice leaving the nation free to fix the damage the dictator left behind.