Operation Oil Theft: Month 6, Week 4, Day 1.

On Friday (9/9/11) Libyan rebels launched their long promised assault on Bani Walid in the west of the country. They claim that artillery fire from Libyan government positions forced them to mount the assault the day before the promised deadline for surrender. On Saturday (10/9/11) the rebels were forced to pause their assault while NATO aircraft attacked Libyan government forces on the road into the town. On Sunday (11/9/11) the rebels had reached the gates of the town and begun street to street fighting. By Monday (12/9/11) fierce resistance by the residents of Bani Walid which saw the rebels take an average of a dozen casualties a day forced the rebels to abandon their assault.

Also on Monday Libyan government forces counter-attacked from Sirte mounting an assault on the town of Ras Lanuf although these seem to be smash and grab raids rather then a full scale military break out.

On Saturday (10/9/11) the leader of the rebel's Transitional National Council (TNC), Mustafa Abdel Jalil, made his first visit to Tripoli and gave his first speech there. Although billed as a "Declaration of Liberation" this is actually an attempt by the 40 strong group of Benghazi lawyers that make up the TNC to impose their rule on the west of the country. This will be no simple task because the Tripoli rebels have already rejected the TNC's choice of local military commander, appointed their own and are refusing to follow orders from the TNC's National Liberation Army (NLA). Meanwhile fighters from Misrata and the Berber tribal regions seem to want to have nothing to do with the TNC.

The task of bring these disparate groups together is not going to be made any easier by a report published by Amnesty International today (13/9/11). This report finds rebels in the east of the country responsible for multiple atrocities and possible war crimes including the use of indiscriminate weapons against civilians, multiple racist killings, abductions and kidnappings, mistreatment of prisoners including beatings, torture and rape and the deliberate killing of civilians in order to pass them off as victims of Libyan government atrocities - so called "black propaganda." The report calls on the TNC to bring those rebels responsible to justice but only covers the period up to the end of July so misses out August's assault on Tripoli where the worst rebel atrocities are said to have been committed and they're still recovering bodies by the dozen.

The most interesting development of the week though hasn't really involved any Libyans at all but has focused on the main objective of the operation - who gets the oil. Last Monday (5/9/11) the Chinese government were forced to comment on documents leaked by a Canadian newspaper that detail a meeting between Libyan government officials and a Chinese arms manufacturer as recently as July 2011. The meeting itself isn't that interesting because it took place without the Chinese government's knowledge, no deal was done and no weapons were supplied. The leaking to the documents is very interesting though. On one level it was designed to make it difficult for the TNC to sign deals with Chinese rather then British oil companies by presenting China as an ally of Qaddafi in the Libyan public consciousness. On another level it was designed to put pressure on the United States to continue the NATO mission in support of the rebellion by raising the threat that Libya's oil will go to China should that rebellion fail.

At the start of the mission against Libya support amongst NATO members other then Britain, France and Canada was very low. As the mission has dragged on and it's true objective has become clear that support has all but disappeared making it unlikely that the NATO mandate will continue beyond September 27th. However as always the key player is the United States because if it is prepared to continue military action against Libya without a NATO mandate then very little will change so the other NATO members may well put aside their objections and continue the mandate in the interests of harmony within the alliance.

The leak of the China meeting also adds a new dimension to last weeks Nevada shooting in the US because the shooter used a Chinese AK-47 which has been banned from import into the US since about 1994. This led to a dialogue between the US and China over the issue of importing weapons despite arms embargoes. The result was that China dropped it's objections allowing the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to officially recognise the TNC and today (13/9/11) China itself has also recognised the TNC. This seems to put China back in pole position in the race for Libya's oil because the Chinese approach to trade deals is all about business rather then honouring war time allegiances so they're likely to offer the highest price.