This has to be read as a direct continuation of yesterday's post; http://watchitdie.blogspot.co.uk/2017/11/operation-featherweight-month-40-week-4.html
I should start by correcting a small error I made in that post.
I stated that both banks of the Khobar River from a Shadaddi to the Euphrates River had been liberated on November 6th (6/11/17). I also stated that the villages of Qushayriyah and Hariza sit on the Khobar north of Shadaddi.
In fact it was both banks of the Khobar River from Suwar to the Euphrates River that had been fully liberated on November 6th (6/11/17).
The villages of Qushayriyah and Hariza actually sit between Markadah and Suwar. Rather than sitting directly on the banks of the Khobar they sit slightly to the west between the Niamh and Siobhan axis. Their liberation is part of the efforts to secure the area behind the advances.
Also I completely forgot to mention that alongside battling to liberate Raqqa the SDF have also been advancing along with northern bank of the Euphrates. From Karamah to Deir-ez-Zour City.
On October 14th (14/10/17) the SDF liberated the Husayniyah area. This sits around 4km (2 miles) south-west of the Deir-ez-Zour Industrial Zone.
As a result the SDF established a continuous line of control from Raqqa to the Deir-ez-Zour Industrial Zone. Linking the Wrath of Euphrates and Cizre Storm operations.
The second distinct force currently conducting operations against ISIL in north-eastern Syria are the Syrians themselves.
Certainly since the early 1980's Syria has been supported by Iran. That support has continued. Since the spring of 2013 Syria has also been supported by the Iranian allied Lebanese group Hezbollah. In the autumn of 2015 Russia threw its considerable military support behind Syria.
Since May 2017 the Syrians have been conducting operations to liberate the centre of Syria from ISIL. Both in the north and the south of the country.
To the north the Syrians liberated the town of Maskanah on June 4th (4/6/17). The last ISIL occupied town in Aleppo Province Maskanah sits in
the banks of the Lake Assad which is formed out of the Euphrates River.
It sits around 90km (50 miles) west of Raqqa - the self-proclaimed
capital of ISIL's self-proclaimed Caliphate.
This put the Syrians in close contact with the SDF's Wrath of Euphrates operation. So the Syrians diverted around Tabqa and Raqqa. On July 30th (30/7/17) they liberated the town of Dalhah. This sits on the Euphrates around 25km (15 miles) south-east of Raqqa.
At the same time the Syrians were advancing west-to-east across the
south of the country from the capital Damascus. By June 9th (9/6/17)
they succeeded in reaching the Iraqi border at
al-Tanf. This is located around 280km (170 miles) east of Damascus and
160km (95 miles) north-west of the Iraqi town of Rutba.
From al-Tanf the Syrians have advanced towards Palmyra around 180km (110
miles) to the north-west almost in the exact centre of Syria. Palmyra
was of course liberated from ISIL by the Syrians in March 2017.
This established the al-Tanf - Palmyra Line.
The Syrians forces from Palmyra and Dalhah then converged on the town of
as-Suknah on August 6th (6/8/17). As-Suknah sits around 130km (75
miles)
south of Raqqa, 65km (40 miles) north-east
of Palmyra and was the last ISIL held town in Homs Province.
From as-Suknah the Syrians objective has been
to advance on the city of Deir-ez-Zour. This straddles the Euphrates around 120km (70
miles) south-east of Raqqa and around 120km (70 miles) north-east of
as-Suknah.
Since March 2014 the entire portion of Deir-ez-Zour City which sits on
the northern banks of the Euphrates has been under ISIL occupation. ISIL
have also been able to occupy a portion of the city on the southern
banks of the Euphrates. Broadly the Jbela and Hamidiyeh districts down
to al-Arfi Street.
The Syrians however have been able to cling onto two pockets on the outskirts of the city;
To the west they have been limited to an area stretching from their
137th Brigade Base into the south-west of the city up to the Cemetery
area.
To the east they have been restricted to an area stretching from the
Airport complex into the south-east of the city up to the al-Rasafah
district.
On September 5th (5/9/17) the Syrians were able to break through from as-Suknah to their 137th Brigade Base. This ended the more than three year siege on their forces in western Deir-ez-Zour City.
It also established the Suknah - Deir-ez-Zour Line.
On September 9th (9/9/17) the Syrians were able to advance across the
Cemetery to the Harabesh Quarter district. This linked the west and
eastern parts of Deir-ez-Zour city held by the Syrians lifting the siege
on the Airport complex.
Rather than immediately moving to liberate all of Deir-ez-Zour City the Syrians first concentrated on liberating all of the areas around the city. This included the area
north of the Suknah - Deir-ez-Zour Line along the banks of the Euphrates
between Dalhah and Deir-ez-Zour.
This was completed on September 24th (24/9/17) with the liberation of
the town of Madan. This sits around 55km (30 miles) south-east of Raqqa
and around 65km (40 miles) north-west of Deir-ez-Zour City.
While the Syrians were doing this ISIL launched an offensive of their own.
Launched on September 28th (28/9/17) this was designated; "Abu
Muhammad al-Adani Offensive." It was intended to break Syrian lines
both between Deir-ez-Zour and as-Suknah and between as-Suknah and
Palmyra.
On September 29th (29/9/17) the Syrians launched an offensive of their
own to counter the al-Adani offensive.
By October 6th (6/10/17) they had
pushed ISIL all the way back to the outskirts of Mayadin. This sits on
the Euphrates around 60km (35 miles) south-east of Deir-ez-Zour.
On October 14th (14/10/17) the Syrians liberated Mayadin.
While they were repelling the al-Adani offensive and liberating Mayadin the Syrians also started liberating Deir-ez-Zour City itself. On September 19th (19/9/17) they crossed from the Airport complex into the Jafra Farms area.
On November 3rd (3/11/17) the Syrians fully liberated Deir-ez-Zour City. However ISIL do maintain a small presence on Hawijat Kati Island. This sits in the Euphrates north of the H7 Highway bridge.
The liberation of the cities of Mayadin and Deir-ez-Zour left ISIL in control of just one population centre in the Euphrates River basin. This is the town of Abu Kamal/Al-Bukamal. It sits around 8km (5 miles) from Syria's border with Iraq.
Alongside liberating Mayadin and Deir-ez-Zour cities the Syrians were also conducting another operation.
The were advancing from both the Tanf - Palmyra Line and the Suknah - Deir-ez-Zour Line on the T-2 Airbase.
With it's strange arrangement of runways in an X formation the T-2 Airbase sits just on the edge of the Abu Kamal municipal area. Around 70km (40 miles) west of the town itself. It is seen as the military gateway to liberating Abu Kamal.
On October 26th (26/10/17) the Syrians liberated the T-2 Airbase. On November 5th (5/11/17) the Syrians reached the Syria/Iraq border from the T-2 Airbase.
This led to some concern amongst CJTFOIR that this meant the Syrians would soon liberate Abu Kamal. From there they would be able to cross the Euphrates and advance north along the Syria/Iraq border cutting of the SDF's Cizre Storm operation. Hence the unfounded suspicions about the ISIL VBIED attack on the IDP camp close the Jafra Oil & Gas Field.
As the Syrians were doing all that the Iraqi Security Forces (ISF) were conducting an operation of their own to liberate the al-Qaim municipal area. This was the last population centre under ISIL control in Iraq. It's sits on the Euphrates River around 15km (9 miles) from the Syrian town of Abu Kamal.
At al-Qaim ISIL were so unable to mount a defence that the operation happened so quickly I didn't have time to catch up with it. However it was launched on October 25th (25/10/17).
The operation was primarily conducted by the Popular Mobilisation Forces (PMF) militias who are a recognised part of the ISF. Specifically the "Movement of the Party of God's Nobles/Harakat Hezbollah al-Nujaba" militia. They are not to be confused with Lebanon's Hezbollah although they are both Shia-Muslim groups.
On November 3rd (3/11/17) Syrian forces crossed into Iraq and liberated al-Qaim alongside Harakat al-Nujaba. On or around November 6th (6/11/17) Harakat al-Nujaba then crossed into Syria and liberated all the villages between the Syria/Iraq border and Abu Kamal. This allowed the Syrians to enter Abu Kamal on Wednesday (8/11/17).
Officially though none of that happened.
The battle for Abu Kamal has been somewhat confusing. Initially it appeared that ISIL fled the town in panic. That allowed the Syrians to declare the town fully liberated on Wednesday (8/11/17) - the same day they had entered it.
However it now seems that ISIL have been able to regroup outside of the town. Along with sleeper cells remaining in Abu Kamal they have launched something of a fightback. While the picture is still confused it is extremely unlikely that this counter-attack will succeed in re-capturing the city.
Obviously the SDF still need to complete their Cizre Storm operation by driving ISIL from the Syria/Iraq border north of the Euphrates River.
The Syrians also have some tidying up of their own to do. For example ISIL still maintain a small presence in Hama province where they are working with Al Qaeda on the boundary of the notorious "Sudetenland" area.
However we are days if not hours away from being able to say;
"ISIL Have Been Eradicated as a Territorial Force."
17:05 on 10/11/17 (UK date).
Friday, 10 November 2017
Thursday, 9 November 2017
Operation Featherweight: Month 40, Week 4, Day 2.
In the summer of 2014 the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) were at their most powerful.
They controlled large swathes of both Iraq and Syria. They'd declared themselves to be an Islamist Caliphate. Their leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi to be it's Caliph and the Syrian city of Raqqa to be its capital.
ISIL's peak really occurred in May 2015 when they seized the central Syrian city of Palmyra. This placed them in control of roughly 50% of Syria and allowed them to destroy the monuments and ruins of the ancient city some of which date back to 2000 B.C.
ISIL's destruction of Palmyra was part of a wider strategy by the group. They wished to destroy anyone and anything that did not agree with their own twisted ideology.
In August of 2014 this thirst for destruction saw ISIL conduct a genocide in and around the Iraqi town of Sinjar/Shingal. Here ISIL targeted members of the Yezidi religion whom ISIL considered to be devil worshippers.
Faced with the shame of this genocide the world was finally forced to act.
The United Nations (UN) issued resolution 2170 (2014) under Chapter 7 of its charter obligating military action against ISIL and their associates. This led to the formation of a US-led international military coalition. Combined Joint Task Force: Operation Inherent Resolve (CJTFOIR).
While the international community was mobilising in the autumn of 2014 ISIL launched an attack against the Syrian city of Kobane. This sits right on the border between Syria and Turkey around 30km (20 miles) east of the Euphrates River.
Kobane was defended by the Syrian Kurdish People's Protection Units (YPG). With scant support from CJTFOIR the YPG repelled ISIL's onslaught and finally drove them from Kobane in January 2015.
The YPG then set about driving ISIL from the area along the Syria/Turkey border between the Euphrates River in the west and Syria's border with Iraq. This was completed in July 2015 with the liberation of Tal Abyad - a border town around 45km (25 miles) east of the Euphrates.
In August 2015 the YPG had driven ISIL from the city of Hasakah. This sits around 60km (35 miles) west of the Syria/Iraq border and around 75km (45 miles) south of Syria's border with Turkey.
At the same time the Iraqi Security Forces (ISF) were working to drive ISIL from Iraqi territory. With no help from CJTFOIR they liberated the city of Tikrit in April 2015. This sits in the centre of Iraq around 175km (105 miles) north of the capital Baghdad.
In February 2016 the ISF liberated the city of Ramadi. This western Iraqi city sits around 100km (60 miles) west of Baghdad.
In June 2016 the ISF liberated the city of Fallujah. This also sits in western Iraq around 50km (30 miles) west of Baghdad and 50km (30 miles) east of Ramadi.
In July 2017 the ISF liberated the city of Mosul. This sits in northern Iraq around 400km (240 miles) north of Baghdad and around 130km (80 miles) south of Iraq's border with Turkey.
The liberation of Mosul meant that ISIL were limited to just the north-east of Syria in the area around the Euphrates River basin. The exception being the Iraqi town of Qaim. This sits on the Euphrates River just 15km (9 miles) inside of Iraq.
Within north-eastern Syria there have been two distinct forces conducting multiple operations against ISIL.
One of these is the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF/QSD). This is a coalition formed by the YPG in October 2015.
Alongside the YPG the SDF is made up of Assyrian/Syriac Christian, Turkmen and Arab Muslim forces. The Arab element which makes up around 50% of the SDF is comprised of both elements of the long defunct Free Syrian Army and local tribes indigenous to north-eastern Syria.
The SDF is supported by CJTFOIR both with air power and Special Operations Forces (SOF's). The SDF also contains a small International Brigade made up of foreign volunteers.
In November 2016 the SDF launched an operation codenamed; "Wrath of Euphrates."
The first phase of this operation saw the SDF advance south from positions around 70km (45 miles) north of Raqqa. This was completed in late November with the SDF taking up positions around 25km (15 miles) north of Raqqa having liberated around 600kmsq (360 milesq).
The second phase of the operation saw the SDF advance south along the eastern bank of the Euphrates River effectively from where it entered Syria from Turkey. This was completed in January 2017 with the SDF taking up positions at Lake Assad around 55km (30 miles) west of Raqqa. In the process the SDF liberated around 3,200kmsq (1.920 milesq).
The third phase of the operation saw the SDF advance to take up positions east of Raqqa. This was completed in March 2017 with the SDF taking up positions at Karamah around 30km (20 miles) east of Raqqa. In the process the SDF liberated around 1000kmsq (600 milesq).
On March 23rd (23/3/17) the SDF launched an operation to liberate the town of Tabqa. This sits on the southern banks of the Euphrates around 50km (30 miles) west of Raqqa. The adjoining Tabqa Dam forms Lake Assad out of the river.
On May 5th (5/11/17) the SDF completed the liberation of the town of Tabqa and took control of the Tabqa Dam.
On June 6th (6/6/17) the SDF launched an operation to liberate the city of Raqqa itself. After of 133 days on intense urban fighting Raqqa was fully liberated on October 19th (19/10/17).
The liberation of Raqqa however has not been the only operation the SDF have been conducting against ISIL in the Euphrates basin in Syria. On September 9th (9/9/17) they launched a second operation codenamed; "Cizre Storm."
At around 18:20 on 9/11/17 (UK date) I will have to pick this up after dinner.
Edited at around 19:55 on 9/11/17 (UK date) to add;
Their gains in Tal Abyad, Hasakah and Raqqa have given the SDF control over a vast area of northeastern Syria. As it encompasses parts of several of Syria's provinces and is constantly growing for operational reasons this has been designated; "Shangri-La."
The only area of north-eastern Syria which Shangri-La does not encompass is a roughly 1500kmsq (860 milesq) area stretching across the Khobar River.
Roughly in the shape of a triangle this has as its tip the point where the Euphrates River enters Iraq. It's base is an imaginary line stretching between the towns of Madan and al-Shadaddi.
Madan sits on the Euphrates River roughly 70km (40 miles) south-east of Raqqa and 110km (70 miles) north-west of Mayadin. Al-Shadaddi sits on the Khobar River roughly 150km (90 miles) east of Raqqa and roughly 130km (75 miles) north of Mayadin.
The objective of the Cizre Storm operation is to advance from the Madan-Shadaddi Line, across the Khobar River to where the Euphrates River enters Iraq. This will liberate the area from ISIL and properly establish Shangri-La with the Euphrates River as its southern boundary.
Initially the Cizre Storm operation made dramatic progress. After just four days it arrived at the Industrial Zone on the outskirts of Deir-ez-Zour City on September 13th (13/9/17).
The capital of Deir-ez-Zour Province Deir-ez-Zour City is located on the Euphrates River. Roughly 65km (40 miles) south-east of Madan and 50km (30 miles) north-west of Mayadin.
This was achieved by establishing a roughly 3km (1.8 mile) wide and 55km (30 mile) deep corridor from the Madan-Shadaddi Line to the Industrial Zone. Unfortunately the operation then stalled for a full seven days.
On September 20th (20/9/17) the Cizre Storm operation received fresh impetus. The SDF established three axis breaking off from the Industrial Zone corridor to the Khobar River.
As referring to the first axis, the second axis, the third axis gets tedious I decided to designate these as; "Aisling (Ash-lean)," "Niamh (N-eve)" and "Siobhan (She-vaughn)."
The first axis; "Aisling" advanced south-east from the Industrial Zone along the banks of the Euphrates in the general direction of the town of al-Zuwaymiyah. This sits on the junction where the Khobar River meets the Euphrates River roughly 8km (5 miles) from the Industrial Zone.
The second axis; "Niamh" advanced east from the Industrial Zone corridor towards the town of as-Suwar. This sits on the banks of the Khobar River roughly 9km (5 miles) from the Industrial Zone. It is connected to the Industrial Zone by the H7 Damascus to Qamishli Highway.
The third axis; "Siobhan" advanced south from Shadaddi towards the town of Markadah. This sits on the banks of the Khobar River roughly 45km (30 miles) south of Shadaddi and roughly 35km (20 miles) north of as-Suwar.
On September 26th (26/9/17) the Niamh axis reached as-Suwar and the town was fully liberated. It then began to advance north along the banks of the Khobar towards Markadah.
On October 4th (4/10/17) the Siobhan axis reached Markadah. However rather than moving to liberate the town the SDF encircled it and began to advance south towards as-Suwar.
On October 15th (15/10/17) the Niamh and Siobhan axis' kissed just south of Markadah. Once united they went on to liberate Markadah on October 20th (20/10/17).
Meanwhile the Aisling axis advanced steadily along the banks of the Euphrates. On September 23rd (23/9/17) it liberated the Conoco gas plant at the al-Isba Oil & Gas Fields. On September 30th (30/9/17) it liberated the Jafra Oil & Gas Fields.
On or around October 10th (10/10/17) the Aisling axis reached and liberated al-Zuwaymiyah completing its advance towards the Khobar River.
On October 20th (20/10/17) the Aisling axis crossed the Khobar River quickly liberating the villages of al-Mashiqa, al-Lawziyah and Shuhayl.
On October 22nd (22/10/17) the Aisling axis had fully liberated the Omar Oil & Gas Field. Being some 160kmsq (95 milesq) in area the liberation of the Omar Oil & Gas Field now puts the SDF's Aisling axis just 40km (25 miles) from Syria's border with Iraq.
On November 5th (5/11/17) the Aisling axis liberated the Sarhit, Shudayha, Younes, Galban and Shaitat Oil & Gas Fields. These small fields sit in an area just beyond the main Omar Oil & Gas Field.
Having raced across the Khobar the Aisling axis has mainly been concentrating on securing the area along the banks of the Euphrates between the Deir-ez-Zour Industrial Zone and the Omar Oil & Gas Field.
On October 26th (26/10/17) it succeeded in liberating the village of Jadid Uqaybat. This sits around 15km (8 miles) west of where the Euphrates meets the Khobar and around 8km (5 miles) south of the Jafra Oil Field. It is significant because it is the birthplace of Amer al-Rafdan - one of the founders of ISIL.
Also on October 26th (26/10/17) the Aisling axis liberated the town of Diban. This sits on the opposite bank of the Euphrates from Mayadin around 20km (12 miles) east of where the Euphrates meets the Khobar.
On Tuesday (7/11/17) the Aisling axis began advancing on the town of Busayrah. This sits almost on a island directly where the Khobar and Euphrates Rivers meet.
On Wednesday (8/11/17) the SDF began their operation to liberate Busayrah entering the town. They also liberated the village of al-Khan which overlooks Busayrah.
Today (9/11/17) the SDF liberated al-Shahi another village which overlooks Busayrah. Efforts to liberate Busayrah itself are ongoing.
On Saturday (5/11/17) the SDF got a sharp lesson in why alongside making rapid advances it is important to secure the areas behind those advances.
A Vehicle Borne Improvised Explosive Device (VBIED) attacked a camp for Internally Displaced People (IDP's) located between the Jafra and al-Isba Oil & Gas Fields. It killed at least 100 civilians.
At the time there was some suspicion - particularly amongst CJTFOIR - that this attack had been carried out by Syrian forces rather than ISIL. The suspicion being that it was intended to put pressure on the SDF's Aisling to focus on securing its lines rather than advancing towards the Syria/Iraq border.
However those suspicions have proved to be unfounded. The attack was carried out by ISIL and was motivated by nothing more than the vicious spite of a soon to be eradicated enemy.
Having met just south of Markadah on October 15th (15/10/17) the Niamh and Siobhan axis have been jointly working to liberate the towns and villages in the Khobar River basin. On both the west and east banks.
On October 26th (26/10/17) the combined Niamh and Siobhan axis liberated the town of Adil. This sits on the eastern banks of the Khobar around 5km (3 miles) south of as-Suwar.
In quick succession the SDF then liberated the villages of Harqa, Badiyh al-Hurayji, Bir Mazaal, Bir Sayad and Suwaylem on October 31st (31/10/17). On November 2nd (2/11/17) they liberated Jadidah Baqarah.
On Monday (6/11/17) the SDF's combined Niamh and Siobhan axis' liberated al-Kajah, al-Hujnah, Tayib al-Far and Sukkar. This completed the liberation of the Khobar River basin from Shadaddi to the Euphrates River.
Since then he SDF's combined Niamh and Siobhan axis' have focused on liberating the Khobar River basin north from Shadaddi to Hasakah.
On Tuesday (6/11/17) they liberated the village of Qushayriyah. Today (9/11/17) they have liberated the village of Hariza.
I will have to leave the second force currently conducting operations against ISIL in north-eastern Syria until tomorrow.
21:55 on 9/11/17 (UK date).
They controlled large swathes of both Iraq and Syria. They'd declared themselves to be an Islamist Caliphate. Their leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi to be it's Caliph and the Syrian city of Raqqa to be its capital.
ISIL's peak really occurred in May 2015 when they seized the central Syrian city of Palmyra. This placed them in control of roughly 50% of Syria and allowed them to destroy the monuments and ruins of the ancient city some of which date back to 2000 B.C.
ISIL's destruction of Palmyra was part of a wider strategy by the group. They wished to destroy anyone and anything that did not agree with their own twisted ideology.
In August of 2014 this thirst for destruction saw ISIL conduct a genocide in and around the Iraqi town of Sinjar/Shingal. Here ISIL targeted members of the Yezidi religion whom ISIL considered to be devil worshippers.
Faced with the shame of this genocide the world was finally forced to act.
The United Nations (UN) issued resolution 2170 (2014) under Chapter 7 of its charter obligating military action against ISIL and their associates. This led to the formation of a US-led international military coalition. Combined Joint Task Force: Operation Inherent Resolve (CJTFOIR).
While the international community was mobilising in the autumn of 2014 ISIL launched an attack against the Syrian city of Kobane. This sits right on the border between Syria and Turkey around 30km (20 miles) east of the Euphrates River.
Kobane was defended by the Syrian Kurdish People's Protection Units (YPG). With scant support from CJTFOIR the YPG repelled ISIL's onslaught and finally drove them from Kobane in January 2015.
The YPG then set about driving ISIL from the area along the Syria/Turkey border between the Euphrates River in the west and Syria's border with Iraq. This was completed in July 2015 with the liberation of Tal Abyad - a border town around 45km (25 miles) east of the Euphrates.
In August 2015 the YPG had driven ISIL from the city of Hasakah. This sits around 60km (35 miles) west of the Syria/Iraq border and around 75km (45 miles) south of Syria's border with Turkey.
At the same time the Iraqi Security Forces (ISF) were working to drive ISIL from Iraqi territory. With no help from CJTFOIR they liberated the city of Tikrit in April 2015. This sits in the centre of Iraq around 175km (105 miles) north of the capital Baghdad.
In February 2016 the ISF liberated the city of Ramadi. This western Iraqi city sits around 100km (60 miles) west of Baghdad.
In June 2016 the ISF liberated the city of Fallujah. This also sits in western Iraq around 50km (30 miles) west of Baghdad and 50km (30 miles) east of Ramadi.
In July 2017 the ISF liberated the city of Mosul. This sits in northern Iraq around 400km (240 miles) north of Baghdad and around 130km (80 miles) south of Iraq's border with Turkey.
The liberation of Mosul meant that ISIL were limited to just the north-east of Syria in the area around the Euphrates River basin. The exception being the Iraqi town of Qaim. This sits on the Euphrates River just 15km (9 miles) inside of Iraq.
Within north-eastern Syria there have been two distinct forces conducting multiple operations against ISIL.
One of these is the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF/QSD). This is a coalition formed by the YPG in October 2015.
Alongside the YPG the SDF is made up of Assyrian/Syriac Christian, Turkmen and Arab Muslim forces. The Arab element which makes up around 50% of the SDF is comprised of both elements of the long defunct Free Syrian Army and local tribes indigenous to north-eastern Syria.
The SDF is supported by CJTFOIR both with air power and Special Operations Forces (SOF's). The SDF also contains a small International Brigade made up of foreign volunteers.
In November 2016 the SDF launched an operation codenamed; "Wrath of Euphrates."
The first phase of this operation saw the SDF advance south from positions around 70km (45 miles) north of Raqqa. This was completed in late November with the SDF taking up positions around 25km (15 miles) north of Raqqa having liberated around 600kmsq (360 milesq).
The second phase of the operation saw the SDF advance south along the eastern bank of the Euphrates River effectively from where it entered Syria from Turkey. This was completed in January 2017 with the SDF taking up positions at Lake Assad around 55km (30 miles) west of Raqqa. In the process the SDF liberated around 3,200kmsq (1.920 milesq).
The third phase of the operation saw the SDF advance to take up positions east of Raqqa. This was completed in March 2017 with the SDF taking up positions at Karamah around 30km (20 miles) east of Raqqa. In the process the SDF liberated around 1000kmsq (600 milesq).
On March 23rd (23/3/17) the SDF launched an operation to liberate the town of Tabqa. This sits on the southern banks of the Euphrates around 50km (30 miles) west of Raqqa. The adjoining Tabqa Dam forms Lake Assad out of the river.
On May 5th (5/11/17) the SDF completed the liberation of the town of Tabqa and took control of the Tabqa Dam.
On June 6th (6/6/17) the SDF launched an operation to liberate the city of Raqqa itself. After of 133 days on intense urban fighting Raqqa was fully liberated on October 19th (19/10/17).
The liberation of Raqqa however has not been the only operation the SDF have been conducting against ISIL in the Euphrates basin in Syria. On September 9th (9/9/17) they launched a second operation codenamed; "Cizre Storm."
At around 18:20 on 9/11/17 (UK date) I will have to pick this up after dinner.
Edited at around 19:55 on 9/11/17 (UK date) to add;
Their gains in Tal Abyad, Hasakah and Raqqa have given the SDF control over a vast area of northeastern Syria. As it encompasses parts of several of Syria's provinces and is constantly growing for operational reasons this has been designated; "Shangri-La."
The only area of north-eastern Syria which Shangri-La does not encompass is a roughly 1500kmsq (860 milesq) area stretching across the Khobar River.
Roughly in the shape of a triangle this has as its tip the point where the Euphrates River enters Iraq. It's base is an imaginary line stretching between the towns of Madan and al-Shadaddi.
Madan sits on the Euphrates River roughly 70km (40 miles) south-east of Raqqa and 110km (70 miles) north-west of Mayadin. Al-Shadaddi sits on the Khobar River roughly 150km (90 miles) east of Raqqa and roughly 130km (75 miles) north of Mayadin.
The objective of the Cizre Storm operation is to advance from the Madan-Shadaddi Line, across the Khobar River to where the Euphrates River enters Iraq. This will liberate the area from ISIL and properly establish Shangri-La with the Euphrates River as its southern boundary.
Initially the Cizre Storm operation made dramatic progress. After just four days it arrived at the Industrial Zone on the outskirts of Deir-ez-Zour City on September 13th (13/9/17).
The capital of Deir-ez-Zour Province Deir-ez-Zour City is located on the Euphrates River. Roughly 65km (40 miles) south-east of Madan and 50km (30 miles) north-west of Mayadin.
This was achieved by establishing a roughly 3km (1.8 mile) wide and 55km (30 mile) deep corridor from the Madan-Shadaddi Line to the Industrial Zone. Unfortunately the operation then stalled for a full seven days.
On September 20th (20/9/17) the Cizre Storm operation received fresh impetus. The SDF established three axis breaking off from the Industrial Zone corridor to the Khobar River.
As referring to the first axis, the second axis, the third axis gets tedious I decided to designate these as; "Aisling (Ash-lean)," "Niamh (N-eve)" and "Siobhan (She-vaughn)."
The first axis; "Aisling" advanced south-east from the Industrial Zone along the banks of the Euphrates in the general direction of the town of al-Zuwaymiyah. This sits on the junction where the Khobar River meets the Euphrates River roughly 8km (5 miles) from the Industrial Zone.
The second axis; "Niamh" advanced east from the Industrial Zone corridor towards the town of as-Suwar. This sits on the banks of the Khobar River roughly 9km (5 miles) from the Industrial Zone. It is connected to the Industrial Zone by the H7 Damascus to Qamishli Highway.
The third axis; "Siobhan" advanced south from Shadaddi towards the town of Markadah. This sits on the banks of the Khobar River roughly 45km (30 miles) south of Shadaddi and roughly 35km (20 miles) north of as-Suwar.
On September 26th (26/9/17) the Niamh axis reached as-Suwar and the town was fully liberated. It then began to advance north along the banks of the Khobar towards Markadah.
On October 4th (4/10/17) the Siobhan axis reached Markadah. However rather than moving to liberate the town the SDF encircled it and began to advance south towards as-Suwar.
On October 15th (15/10/17) the Niamh and Siobhan axis' kissed just south of Markadah. Once united they went on to liberate Markadah on October 20th (20/10/17).
Meanwhile the Aisling axis advanced steadily along the banks of the Euphrates. On September 23rd (23/9/17) it liberated the Conoco gas plant at the al-Isba Oil & Gas Fields. On September 30th (30/9/17) it liberated the Jafra Oil & Gas Fields.
On or around October 10th (10/10/17) the Aisling axis reached and liberated al-Zuwaymiyah completing its advance towards the Khobar River.
On October 20th (20/10/17) the Aisling axis crossed the Khobar River quickly liberating the villages of al-Mashiqa, al-Lawziyah and Shuhayl.
On October 22nd (22/10/17) the Aisling axis had fully liberated the Omar Oil & Gas Field. Being some 160kmsq (95 milesq) in area the liberation of the Omar Oil & Gas Field now puts the SDF's Aisling axis just 40km (25 miles) from Syria's border with Iraq.
On November 5th (5/11/17) the Aisling axis liberated the Sarhit, Shudayha, Younes, Galban and Shaitat Oil & Gas Fields. These small fields sit in an area just beyond the main Omar Oil & Gas Field.
Having raced across the Khobar the Aisling axis has mainly been concentrating on securing the area along the banks of the Euphrates between the Deir-ez-Zour Industrial Zone and the Omar Oil & Gas Field.
On October 26th (26/10/17) it succeeded in liberating the village of Jadid Uqaybat. This sits around 15km (8 miles) west of where the Euphrates meets the Khobar and around 8km (5 miles) south of the Jafra Oil Field. It is significant because it is the birthplace of Amer al-Rafdan - one of the founders of ISIL.
Also on October 26th (26/10/17) the Aisling axis liberated the town of Diban. This sits on the opposite bank of the Euphrates from Mayadin around 20km (12 miles) east of where the Euphrates meets the Khobar.
On Tuesday (7/11/17) the Aisling axis began advancing on the town of Busayrah. This sits almost on a island directly where the Khobar and Euphrates Rivers meet.
On Wednesday (8/11/17) the SDF began their operation to liberate Busayrah entering the town. They also liberated the village of al-Khan which overlooks Busayrah.
Today (9/11/17) the SDF liberated al-Shahi another village which overlooks Busayrah. Efforts to liberate Busayrah itself are ongoing.
On Saturday (5/11/17) the SDF got a sharp lesson in why alongside making rapid advances it is important to secure the areas behind those advances.
A Vehicle Borne Improvised Explosive Device (VBIED) attacked a camp for Internally Displaced People (IDP's) located between the Jafra and al-Isba Oil & Gas Fields. It killed at least 100 civilians.
At the time there was some suspicion - particularly amongst CJTFOIR - that this attack had been carried out by Syrian forces rather than ISIL. The suspicion being that it was intended to put pressure on the SDF's Aisling to focus on securing its lines rather than advancing towards the Syria/Iraq border.
However those suspicions have proved to be unfounded. The attack was carried out by ISIL and was motivated by nothing more than the vicious spite of a soon to be eradicated enemy.
Having met just south of Markadah on October 15th (15/10/17) the Niamh and Siobhan axis have been jointly working to liberate the towns and villages in the Khobar River basin. On both the west and east banks.
On October 26th (26/10/17) the combined Niamh and Siobhan axis liberated the town of Adil. This sits on the eastern banks of the Khobar around 5km (3 miles) south of as-Suwar.
In quick succession the SDF then liberated the villages of Harqa, Badiyh al-Hurayji, Bir Mazaal, Bir Sayad and Suwaylem on October 31st (31/10/17). On November 2nd (2/11/17) they liberated Jadidah Baqarah.
On Monday (6/11/17) the SDF's combined Niamh and Siobhan axis' liberated al-Kajah, al-Hujnah, Tayib al-Far and Sukkar. This completed the liberation of the Khobar River basin from Shadaddi to the Euphrates River.
Since then he SDF's combined Niamh and Siobhan axis' have focused on liberating the Khobar River basin north from Shadaddi to Hasakah.
On Tuesday (6/11/17) they liberated the village of Qushayriyah. Today (9/11/17) they have liberated the village of Hariza.
I will have to leave the second force currently conducting operations against ISIL in north-eastern Syria until tomorrow.
21:55 on 9/11/17 (UK date).
Tuesday, 7 November 2017
Back to House.
Yes it is Tuesday night. No I have not been to the pub.
Yesterday (6/11/17) I complained that with the COP23 Summit and the war against the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) life was being really hectic. So I did the only logical thing when times are troubled. I started binge watching the US TV show; "House."
This is the perfect thing for uncertain times. After all each episode across all eight seasons is the same predictable three act play.
Act One: A person is admitted to hospital with a mystery illness.
Act Two: The doctors think they have diagnosed the illness and start treatment. The treatment fails.
Act Three: The doctors diagnose another illness and start treatment. That treatment works and everybody ends up happy.
The show is that predictable that even if you come in half-way through you can tell you're in Act Two because someone will use the line; "Is it Lupus?"
This predictability became such a running joke apparently the writers started using it as a punishment. The actor who'd annoyed them that week would be given the line. Then at the end of each season they'd tot up how many times each actor had used the line. The one who'd used it the most then had to pay a fine.
Re-watching all this I can't help but regret that the show ended before they were able to cast Selena Gomez as a gueststar. After all this US popstar/actress has got to be the World's most famous Lupus sufferer. It might just be the magazines I read but it seems like every day I'm reading about Selena Gomez's battle with Lupus.
Reading those articles though uou can see why Lupus is such a staple of medical mystery dramas.
Lupus is an autoimmune disease. This means the immune system sometimes gets confused and starts attacking normal, healthy cells. Although I'm sure there is a good reason for this at present no-one seems to know what that reason is. Nor do they know why it stops and goes into remission as suddenly and mysteriously as it starts.
The most common treatment for Lupus is through low doses of a powerful chemotherapy drug. This suppresses the immune system to stop it attacking healthy cells. The irony is that this drug sometimes decides to team up with the Lupus and they both start attacking healthy cells.
Normally Lupus attacks the soft tissue in the joints such as the hands, knees, feet etc. This leads to inflammation that is extremely painful and can seriously effect someones quality of life.
However on rare occasions Lupus can start attacking healthy cells in the vital organs.
The big example from Selena Gomez was the kidneys. The Lupus causes inflammation in the kidney preventing it from doing its job. In Selena Gomez's case this became so severe that she had to have a kidney transplant.
In a way Selena Gomez was lucky. Most humans have two kidneys and really you only need a quarter of one in order to live. As a result transplants can be arranged from a live donor and if not you can live on kidney dialysis for years.
It's much more serious if the vital organ affected is something like the lungs. You can't really do a lung transplant from a live donor and you use your lungs so many times a minute you can't really wait a week to fit in an appointment at a dialysis clinic.
If Lupus starts attacking the soft tissue in the lungs then they can no longer supply the bloodcells with oxygen. This means that the bloodcells can longer supply all the other cells in the body with oxygen. Below a certain point those cells shutdown and die. This is known as respiratory failure and can lead to a much more serious medical condition known as; "Death."
Fortunately that failure point is actually extremely low. Normally Lupus goes into remission long before things reach that point. If it doesn't you can use steroids to suppress the immune system shutting down the Lupus. You can also gives the lungs extra help in the form of oxygen, pressurised oxygen and even, in extreme case, intubated ventilation.
The medical drama doesn't end there though. If you start suppressing your immune system - particularly if you've got damaged lung tissue - you become very susceptible to all the bacteria, virus' and fungi that hurtle around during Flu Season.
Synonymous with Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndrome (AIDS) probably the most famous of these is Pneumocystis Pneumonia (PCP). Although as a general rule if you're going to get one of these opportunistic infections you're going to get all of them.
Last Tuesday (31/10/17) there was an Islamist terror attack in New York City, New York, US.
This led to some discussion about whether the alleged attacker should be transported to Guantanamo Bay and subjected to interrogation techniques such as waterboarding. This involves pouring water over a person's face to simulate drowning.
ISIL make frequent use of Chlorine gas as a Chemical Weapon. This mildly inflames the soft tissue in the lungs.
Both waterboarding a chlorine gas are designed to make people think they cannot breath. The intention being to make the person panic. When you panic the body thinks you need more oxygen. Something which you can't do making the panic much worse.
So if you ever find yourself in a situation like that it's important to remember that you're not going to die. Well not of that. Not in the foreseeable future.
Also Southern Rail are dicks. That's nothing to do with anything. I just think we all need to be periodically reminded that Southern Rail are dicks.
Tomorrow (8/11/17) members of the Rail, Maritime and Transport (RMT) workers across Britain are going on strike in a dispute about driverless trains.
Customers of Southern Rail are not expected to notice.
23:45 on 8/11/17 (UK date).
Yesterday (6/11/17) I complained that with the COP23 Summit and the war against the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) life was being really hectic. So I did the only logical thing when times are troubled. I started binge watching the US TV show; "House."
This is the perfect thing for uncertain times. After all each episode across all eight seasons is the same predictable three act play.
Act One: A person is admitted to hospital with a mystery illness.
Act Two: The doctors think they have diagnosed the illness and start treatment. The treatment fails.
Act Three: The doctors diagnose another illness and start treatment. That treatment works and everybody ends up happy.
The show is that predictable that even if you come in half-way through you can tell you're in Act Two because someone will use the line; "Is it Lupus?"
This predictability became such a running joke apparently the writers started using it as a punishment. The actor who'd annoyed them that week would be given the line. Then at the end of each season they'd tot up how many times each actor had used the line. The one who'd used it the most then had to pay a fine.
Re-watching all this I can't help but regret that the show ended before they were able to cast Selena Gomez as a gueststar. After all this US popstar/actress has got to be the World's most famous Lupus sufferer. It might just be the magazines I read but it seems like every day I'm reading about Selena Gomez's battle with Lupus.
Reading those articles though uou can see why Lupus is such a staple of medical mystery dramas.
Lupus is an autoimmune disease. This means the immune system sometimes gets confused and starts attacking normal, healthy cells. Although I'm sure there is a good reason for this at present no-one seems to know what that reason is. Nor do they know why it stops and goes into remission as suddenly and mysteriously as it starts.
The most common treatment for Lupus is through low doses of a powerful chemotherapy drug. This suppresses the immune system to stop it attacking healthy cells. The irony is that this drug sometimes decides to team up with the Lupus and they both start attacking healthy cells.
Normally Lupus attacks the soft tissue in the joints such as the hands, knees, feet etc. This leads to inflammation that is extremely painful and can seriously effect someones quality of life.
However on rare occasions Lupus can start attacking healthy cells in the vital organs.
The big example from Selena Gomez was the kidneys. The Lupus causes inflammation in the kidney preventing it from doing its job. In Selena Gomez's case this became so severe that she had to have a kidney transplant.
In a way Selena Gomez was lucky. Most humans have two kidneys and really you only need a quarter of one in order to live. As a result transplants can be arranged from a live donor and if not you can live on kidney dialysis for years.
It's much more serious if the vital organ affected is something like the lungs. You can't really do a lung transplant from a live donor and you use your lungs so many times a minute you can't really wait a week to fit in an appointment at a dialysis clinic.
If Lupus starts attacking the soft tissue in the lungs then they can no longer supply the bloodcells with oxygen. This means that the bloodcells can longer supply all the other cells in the body with oxygen. Below a certain point those cells shutdown and die. This is known as respiratory failure and can lead to a much more serious medical condition known as; "Death."
Fortunately that failure point is actually extremely low. Normally Lupus goes into remission long before things reach that point. If it doesn't you can use steroids to suppress the immune system shutting down the Lupus. You can also gives the lungs extra help in the form of oxygen, pressurised oxygen and even, in extreme case, intubated ventilation.
The medical drama doesn't end there though. If you start suppressing your immune system - particularly if you've got damaged lung tissue - you become very susceptible to all the bacteria, virus' and fungi that hurtle around during Flu Season.
Synonymous with Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndrome (AIDS) probably the most famous of these is Pneumocystis Pneumonia (PCP). Although as a general rule if you're going to get one of these opportunistic infections you're going to get all of them.
Last Tuesday (31/10/17) there was an Islamist terror attack in New York City, New York, US.
This led to some discussion about whether the alleged attacker should be transported to Guantanamo Bay and subjected to interrogation techniques such as waterboarding. This involves pouring water over a person's face to simulate drowning.
ISIL make frequent use of Chlorine gas as a Chemical Weapon. This mildly inflames the soft tissue in the lungs.
Both waterboarding a chlorine gas are designed to make people think they cannot breath. The intention being to make the person panic. When you panic the body thinks you need more oxygen. Something which you can't do making the panic much worse.
So if you ever find yourself in a situation like that it's important to remember that you're not going to die. Well not of that. Not in the foreseeable future.
Also Southern Rail are dicks. That's nothing to do with anything. I just think we all need to be periodically reminded that Southern Rail are dicks.
Tomorrow (8/11/17) members of the Rail, Maritime and Transport (RMT) workers across Britain are going on strike in a dispute about driverless trains.
Customers of Southern Rail are not expected to notice.
23:45 on 8/11/17 (UK date).
Monday, 6 November 2017
The Sutherton Springs Shooting (skeleton)
On Sunday (5/11/17) there was a mass shooting in the small town in Sutherton Springs, Texas, US. This attack has left at least 26 people.
Today (6/11/17) the 23rd Conference of Parties (COP23) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC).
The UNFCCC deals with literally everything under the Sun. So meetings such as COP23 are usually accompanied by a variety of stunts and coded messaging between nations.
This year the UK seems to have opened the bidding with an BBC expose which has been dubbed; "The Paradise Papers." This reveals the dealings of tax havens across the Caribbean. Particularly the island of Bermuda.
COP23 is being held in Bonn, Germany. However officially it is being hosted by Fiji. Within UNFCCC negotiations Fiji is part of a distinct group of nations called; Small Island Developing States (SIDS). This group includes many of the Caribbean islands such as Bermuda.
Although there is a wide variety within the SIDS grouping these nations tend to be medium to poor income nations.
However that lack of economic development being the result of poor governance. Instead the size of their economies is limited by their size.
For example the British Virgin Islands has a tax base of just 30,000 citizens. As a result many of them act as tax havens to boost their economies. After 1% tax on USD10m nets a lot more money than a 20% tax on USD20,000.
Through Hurricanes Irma and Maria the Caribbean SIDS have been in the news a lot recently. In that coverage pretty much every lazy journalist used the headline; "Paradise Lost" in a play on John Milton's epic poem.
There is a US TV show called; "The Unit." This is about a secret Special Operations Forces (SOF) Unit. Their cover is that the are members of; "303 Logistical Studies Group." That highlights the overlap between war fighting a the military's expertise in logistics which is makes them extremely useful in responding to natural disasters.
In one episode of The Unit they use the Milton poem as a code cipher. Although the show continued long afterwards that Paradise Lost episode is the last one distributed in the UK. It's provided for a silly media in joke.
The shooter in Sutherland Springs had been discharged from the US Air Force. He'd served in a logistical studies group.
At the time many people suggested Hurricanes Irma & Maria were punishment for President Trump withdrawing the US from the UNFCCC's Paris Agreement. To me though it seemed like a reward.
Although bad Hurricanes Irma & Maria were not as bad as they might've been. Irma in particular seemed to protect the US by lashing out at Cuba. Something Trump likes to do.
Also they provided Trump with an opportunity to show himself to be a competent leaders. His Democrat critics were so desperate for a "Katrina Moment" that never arrived they resorted to sabotaging the relief effort on Democrat-run Puerto Rico.
By calling attention to the Caribbean SIDS the UK seems to be indicating that it too would like to withdraw from the Paris Agreement. Even if they're not prepared to say it explicitly.
Mainly though it is an attempt to dominate proceedings. Already the Paradise Papers have raised the issue of the Trump/Russia saga and linked to Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau. It will likely reference many more things over the next two weeks.
As a Church shooting events in Sutherton Springs invokes memories of the June 17th 2015 (17/6/15) Charleston shooting.
A major element of UNFCCC negotiations is the issue of good governance and the rule of law. After all there's no point passing a domestic law to cut pollution if it's not enforced.
The main failing of the Paris Agreement is that it has no legal force. So people are free to cheat.
Following the Charleston shooting then President Obama gave eulogies at some of the funerals and declared the accused shooter guilty. This denied him a fair trial.
Although it was more a series of incidents across the Black Lives Matter campaign within UNFCCC the Charleston shooting became a symbol of how Obama cannot be taken seriously on issues of rule of law and good governance.
COP23 takes place at the same time as President Trump's tour of Southeast Asia. This region was at the centre of Obama's "Pivot Towards the Pacific" policy. At the centre of that policy is the Democrat People's Republic of Korea (DPRK/North) nuclear weapons program.
Within nuclear warfare strategy there is something called; "Madman Theory." This dictates you must show an opponent you are prepared to sustain very high casualties and even certain death to achieve your aims.
As with the Mandalay Bay shooting the fourth worst mass shooting in US history certainly makes that gesture.
Also there is a strategically important airbase in Syria know as T-2. This is really the Syrians gateway to the city/town/village of Abu Kamal. ISIL's last real position in either Syria or Iraq.
The runways at T-2 form an X shape. Rather like the crossroads by the Church in Sutherton Springs. Also one of the actors in The Unit starred in the movie; "Terminator T2."
I stopped short of dealing with the T-2 issue in my last previous most because it requires more attention then I could give it at the time.
Due to COP23 I really need to be reading rather than writing. So I'm not about to dive in now.
21:30 on 6/11/17 (UK date).
Today (6/11/17) the 23rd Conference of Parties (COP23) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC).
The UNFCCC deals with literally everything under the Sun. So meetings such as COP23 are usually accompanied by a variety of stunts and coded messaging between nations.
This year the UK seems to have opened the bidding with an BBC expose which has been dubbed; "The Paradise Papers." This reveals the dealings of tax havens across the Caribbean. Particularly the island of Bermuda.
COP23 is being held in Bonn, Germany. However officially it is being hosted by Fiji. Within UNFCCC negotiations Fiji is part of a distinct group of nations called; Small Island Developing States (SIDS). This group includes many of the Caribbean islands such as Bermuda.
Although there is a wide variety within the SIDS grouping these nations tend to be medium to poor income nations.
However that lack of economic development being the result of poor governance. Instead the size of their economies is limited by their size.
For example the British Virgin Islands has a tax base of just 30,000 citizens. As a result many of them act as tax havens to boost their economies. After 1% tax on USD10m nets a lot more money than a 20% tax on USD20,000.
Through Hurricanes Irma and Maria the Caribbean SIDS have been in the news a lot recently. In that coverage pretty much every lazy journalist used the headline; "Paradise Lost" in a play on John Milton's epic poem.
There is a US TV show called; "The Unit." This is about a secret Special Operations Forces (SOF) Unit. Their cover is that the are members of; "303 Logistical Studies Group." That highlights the overlap between war fighting a the military's expertise in logistics which is makes them extremely useful in responding to natural disasters.
In one episode of The Unit they use the Milton poem as a code cipher. Although the show continued long afterwards that Paradise Lost episode is the last one distributed in the UK. It's provided for a silly media in joke.
The shooter in Sutherland Springs had been discharged from the US Air Force. He'd served in a logistical studies group.
At the time many people suggested Hurricanes Irma & Maria were punishment for President Trump withdrawing the US from the UNFCCC's Paris Agreement. To me though it seemed like a reward.
Although bad Hurricanes Irma & Maria were not as bad as they might've been. Irma in particular seemed to protect the US by lashing out at Cuba. Something Trump likes to do.
Also they provided Trump with an opportunity to show himself to be a competent leaders. His Democrat critics were so desperate for a "Katrina Moment" that never arrived they resorted to sabotaging the relief effort on Democrat-run Puerto Rico.
By calling attention to the Caribbean SIDS the UK seems to be indicating that it too would like to withdraw from the Paris Agreement. Even if they're not prepared to say it explicitly.
Mainly though it is an attempt to dominate proceedings. Already the Paradise Papers have raised the issue of the Trump/Russia saga and linked to Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau. It will likely reference many more things over the next two weeks.
As a Church shooting events in Sutherton Springs invokes memories of the June 17th 2015 (17/6/15) Charleston shooting.
A major element of UNFCCC negotiations is the issue of good governance and the rule of law. After all there's no point passing a domestic law to cut pollution if it's not enforced.
The main failing of the Paris Agreement is that it has no legal force. So people are free to cheat.
Following the Charleston shooting then President Obama gave eulogies at some of the funerals and declared the accused shooter guilty. This denied him a fair trial.
Although it was more a series of incidents across the Black Lives Matter campaign within UNFCCC the Charleston shooting became a symbol of how Obama cannot be taken seriously on issues of rule of law and good governance.
COP23 takes place at the same time as President Trump's tour of Southeast Asia. This region was at the centre of Obama's "Pivot Towards the Pacific" policy. At the centre of that policy is the Democrat People's Republic of Korea (DPRK/North) nuclear weapons program.
Within nuclear warfare strategy there is something called; "Madman Theory." This dictates you must show an opponent you are prepared to sustain very high casualties and even certain death to achieve your aims.
As with the Mandalay Bay shooting the fourth worst mass shooting in US history certainly makes that gesture.
Also there is a strategically important airbase in Syria know as T-2. This is really the Syrians gateway to the city/town/village of Abu Kamal. ISIL's last real position in either Syria or Iraq.
The runways at T-2 form an X shape. Rather like the crossroads by the Church in Sutherton Springs. Also one of the actors in The Unit starred in the movie; "Terminator T2."
I stopped short of dealing with the T-2 issue in my last previous most because it requires more attention then I could give it at the time.
Due to COP23 I really need to be reading rather than writing. So I'm not about to dive in now.
21:30 on 6/11/17 (UK date).
Friday, 3 November 2017
Operation Featherweight: Month 40, Week 3, Day 3.
In December 2016 the Astana Process on Syria was formed. This sees Russia, Iran, Turkey and Syria meet periodically to discuss the conflict.
The first round of meetings in the Astana Process held on December 20th (20/12/16) led to the creation of a ceasefire called the Astana Ceasefire. However due to the variety of armed groups active within Syria it was never really clear whom the ceasefire applied to and who it excluded.
At the demand of Turkey it clearly excluded the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF/QSD). A coalition of Kurdish, Sunni Arab, Christian and Turkmen forces the SDF have been the most effective anti-ISIL force within Syria excluding the Syrians themselves.
The ceasefire also clearly excluded the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL). In line with United Nations Security Council (UNSC) Resolution 2170 (2014) it also excluded The Support Front/Jabhat al-Nusra (ANF) who are The Base/Al Qaeda's affiliate within Syria and closely allied with ISIL.
The problem is that as its name suggests The Support Front operates as part of a wider coalition known as the Army of Conquest/Jaish al-Fatah.
Alongside Al Qaeda the second largest faction within the Army of Conquest is the Islamic Movement of the Freemen of the Levant/Harakat Ahrar ash-Sham al-Islamiyya (Ahrar al-Sham). They are very closely linked to the Muslim Brotherhood and through the Brotherhood to Qatar and Turkey.
Another significant faction within the Army of Conquest is the United Turkmen Army (UTA) who are sometimes known as the Syrian Turkmen Brigades (STB). This is formed of the paramilitary wing of the Turkish Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) known as the Grey Wolves.
Other factions within the Army of Conquest include the small but extremely nasty Army of Islam/Jaish al-Islam (JAI) and Islamist fragments of the now defunct FSA.
Therefore the question has always been whether the Army of Conquest as a whole is covered by the Astana Ceasefire or whether the presence of Al Qaeda within the coalition means that it is excluded.
At the fifth round of meetings in the Astana Process held on May 3rd (3/5/17 through to May 5th (5/5/17) an agreement was reached to try and resolve this question.
It was agreed that four zones dubbed the "Astana Zones" would be created in specific areas where ISIL are not considered particularly active. Within these zones fighting would be suspended between all groups regardless of their affiliation with Al Qaeda.
If there is one advantage to this agreement it has freed up Syrian and Russian resources to fight ISIL without distraction. Since May this is something they have been doing with great success advancing across central Syria in both the north and south of the country.
On June 4th (4/6/17) the Syrians liberated the town of Maskanah.The last ISIL occupied town in Aleppo Province Maskanah sits in the banks of the Lake Assad which is formed out of the Euphrates River. It sits around 90km (50 miles) west of Raqqa - the self-proclaimed capital of ISIL's self-proclaimed Caliphate.
At the time the SDF were conducting an operation to liberate Raqqa. The Syrians diverted around that operation and on July 30th (30/7/17) liberated the town of Dalhah. This sits on the Euphrates around 25km (15 miles) south-east of Raqqa.
At the same time the Syrians were advancing west-to-east across the south of the country from the capital Damascus. By June 9th (9/6/17) they succeeded in reaching the Iraqi border at al-Tanf. This is located around 280km (170 miles) east of Damascus and 160km (95 miles) north-west of the Iraqi town of Rutba.
From al-Tanf the Syrians have advanced towards Palmyra around 180km (110 miles) to the north-west almost in the exact centre of Syria. Palmyra was of course liberated from ISIL by the Syrians in March 2017.
The Syrians forces from Palmyra and Dalhah then converged on the town of as-Suknah on August 6th (6/8/17). As-Suknah sits around 130km (75 miles) south of Raqqa, 65km (40 miles) north-east of Palmyra and was the last ISIL held town in Homs Province.
From as-Suknah the Syrians objective has been to advance on the city of Deir-ez-Zour. This straddles the Euphrates around 120km (70 miles) south-east of Raqqa and around 120km (70 miles) north-east of as-Suknah.
Since March 2014 the entire portion of Deir-ez-Zour City which sits on the northern banks of the Euphrates has been under ISIL occupation. ISIL have also been able to occupy a portion of the city on the southern banks of the Euphrates. Broadly the Jbela and Hamidiyeh districts down to al-Arfi Street.
The Syrians however have been able to cling onto two pockets on the outskirts of the city;
To the west they have been limited to an area stretching from their 137th Brigade base into the south-west of the city up to the Cemetery area.
To the east they have been restricted to an area stretching from the Airport complex into the south-east of the city up to the al-Rasafah district.
On September 5th (5/9/17) the Syrians were able to break through from as-Suknah to their 137th Brigade Base. This ended the more than three year siege on their forces in western Deir-ez-Zour City.
It also established the Suknah - Deir-ez-Zour Line.
On September 9th (9/9/17) the Syrians were able to advance across the Cemetery to the Harabesh Quarter district. This linked the west and eastern parts of Deir-ez-Zour city held by the Syrians lifting the siege on the Airport complex.
Liberating Deir-ez-Zour City was always going to be a complex operation. What you would normally do in this type of operation is completely surround the city laying siege to it. You would then study the enemy's defences to identify the weak points before applying overwhelming force to those week points.
However on September 9th (9/9/17) the SDF also took up positions at the Deir-ez-Zour Industrial Zone to the north of the city. This meant that the Syrians were prevented from fully surrounding the city.
Also the Syrians had never fully lost control of the city. That meant they didn't have the option of holding back in order to find the best places to attack. They were already in battle with ISIL in the 137th Brigade base and Airport areas of the city.
So rather than moving immediately to liberate all of Deir-ez-Zour City the Syrians first focused on liberating all of the areas around the city. This included the area north of the Suknah - Deir-ez-Zour Line along the banks of the Euphrates between Dalhah and Deir-ez-Zour.
This was completed on September 24th (24/9/17) with the liberation of the town of Madan. This sits around 55km (30 miles) south-east of Raqqa and around 65km (40 miles) north-west of Deir-ez-Zour City.
The Syrians then set about liberating Deir-ez-Zour City itself.
Starting from the Airport area they liberated the Jafra Farms areas crossing onto the north bank of the Euphrates on September 19th (19/9/17). Having crossed onto the north bank of the Euphrates the Syrians quickly liberating the al-Hatlah Tahtani, Hatlah al-Shargiyah and Asus areas.
On October 10th (10/10/17) the Syrians took control of the H7 Highway bridge across the Euphrates. This trapped ISIL in the portion of the city that sits on the south bank of the Euphrates.
On October 26th (26/10/17) the Syrians liberated Saqr Island. This sits in the Euphrates River between the H7 Highway and the Jafra Farms area to the south.
Within the main body of Deir-ez-Zour itself ISIL have been limited to just eleven districts between al-Qussour to the west and al-Sinaa to the east. These include the Old Airport district containing the Municipal Stadium complex. This is believed to have functioned as ISIL main headquarters within Deir-ez-Zour City.
On October 29th (29/10/17) the Syrians liberated the two Workers districts and the Mayssalon district. These sit directly south of the Old Airport District.
On Tuesday (31/10/17) the Syrians liberated the Old Airport district ousting ISIL from their headquarters in the city.
Having lost control of their headquarters ISIL then suffered a collapse in their defences.
In the space of a day on Wednesday (1/11/17) they lost control of the ar-Rashidya and Jubailah districts which sit in the centre of the city between the al-Qussour and al-Hamidiya districts. They also lost control of the Hawiqah districts which sit on an island in the Euphrates.
This left ISIL in control of just the Hamidiya, al-Jaradiq, Sheikh Yassin, Kenamat and al-Ardi districts.
Late yesterday (2/11/17) those remaining districts were fully liberated.
Today (3/11/17) the Syrians have been able to declare Deir-ez-Zour City fully liberated from ISIL.
While the Syrians were focused on liberating Deir-ez-Zour City and clearing the area to the north of the Suknah - Deir-ez-Zour Line ISIL attacked the line from the south.
On September 28th (28/9/17) ISIL forces in Mayadin launched their "Abu Muhammad al-Adani Offensive." This was intended to break Syrian lines both between Deir-ez-Zour and as-Suknah and between as-Suknah and Palmyra.
On September 29th (29/9/17) the Syrians launched an offensive of their own to counter the al-Adani offensive.
By October 6th (6/10/17) they had pushed ISIL all the way back to the outskirts of Mayadin. This sits on the Euphrates around 60km (35 miles) south-east of Deir-ez-Zour.
On October 14th (14/10/17) the Syrians liberated Mayadin.
The liberation of Raqqa, Deir-ez-Zour and Mayadin means that ISIL hold now just one population centre in Syria.
This is the town of al-Bukamal. It sits on the south bank of the Euphrates River around 100km (60 miles) south-east of Mayadin and just 5km (3 miles) from Syrians border with Iraq.
18:15 on 3/11/17 (UK date).
The first round of meetings in the Astana Process held on December 20th (20/12/16) led to the creation of a ceasefire called the Astana Ceasefire. However due to the variety of armed groups active within Syria it was never really clear whom the ceasefire applied to and who it excluded.
At the demand of Turkey it clearly excluded the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF/QSD). A coalition of Kurdish, Sunni Arab, Christian and Turkmen forces the SDF have been the most effective anti-ISIL force within Syria excluding the Syrians themselves.
The ceasefire also clearly excluded the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL). In line with United Nations Security Council (UNSC) Resolution 2170 (2014) it also excluded The Support Front/Jabhat al-Nusra (ANF) who are The Base/Al Qaeda's affiliate within Syria and closely allied with ISIL.
The problem is that as its name suggests The Support Front operates as part of a wider coalition known as the Army of Conquest/Jaish al-Fatah.
Alongside Al Qaeda the second largest faction within the Army of Conquest is the Islamic Movement of the Freemen of the Levant/Harakat Ahrar ash-Sham al-Islamiyya (Ahrar al-Sham). They are very closely linked to the Muslim Brotherhood and through the Brotherhood to Qatar and Turkey.
Another significant faction within the Army of Conquest is the United Turkmen Army (UTA) who are sometimes known as the Syrian Turkmen Brigades (STB). This is formed of the paramilitary wing of the Turkish Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) known as the Grey Wolves.
Other factions within the Army of Conquest include the small but extremely nasty Army of Islam/Jaish al-Islam (JAI) and Islamist fragments of the now defunct FSA.
Therefore the question has always been whether the Army of Conquest as a whole is covered by the Astana Ceasefire or whether the presence of Al Qaeda within the coalition means that it is excluded.
At the fifth round of meetings in the Astana Process held on May 3rd (3/5/17 through to May 5th (5/5/17) an agreement was reached to try and resolve this question.
It was agreed that four zones dubbed the "Astana Zones" would be created in specific areas where ISIL are not considered particularly active. Within these zones fighting would be suspended between all groups regardless of their affiliation with Al Qaeda.
If there is one advantage to this agreement it has freed up Syrian and Russian resources to fight ISIL without distraction. Since May this is something they have been doing with great success advancing across central Syria in both the north and south of the country.
On June 4th (4/6/17) the Syrians liberated the town of Maskanah.The last ISIL occupied town in Aleppo Province Maskanah sits in the banks of the Lake Assad which is formed out of the Euphrates River. It sits around 90km (50 miles) west of Raqqa - the self-proclaimed capital of ISIL's self-proclaimed Caliphate.
At the time the SDF were conducting an operation to liberate Raqqa. The Syrians diverted around that operation and on July 30th (30/7/17) liberated the town of Dalhah. This sits on the Euphrates around 25km (15 miles) south-east of Raqqa.
At the same time the Syrians were advancing west-to-east across the south of the country from the capital Damascus. By June 9th (9/6/17) they succeeded in reaching the Iraqi border at al-Tanf. This is located around 280km (170 miles) east of Damascus and 160km (95 miles) north-west of the Iraqi town of Rutba.
From al-Tanf the Syrians have advanced towards Palmyra around 180km (110 miles) to the north-west almost in the exact centre of Syria. Palmyra was of course liberated from ISIL by the Syrians in March 2017.
The Syrians forces from Palmyra and Dalhah then converged on the town of as-Suknah on August 6th (6/8/17). As-Suknah sits around 130km (75 miles) south of Raqqa, 65km (40 miles) north-east of Palmyra and was the last ISIL held town in Homs Province.
From as-Suknah the Syrians objective has been to advance on the city of Deir-ez-Zour. This straddles the Euphrates around 120km (70 miles) south-east of Raqqa and around 120km (70 miles) north-east of as-Suknah.
Since March 2014 the entire portion of Deir-ez-Zour City which sits on the northern banks of the Euphrates has been under ISIL occupation. ISIL have also been able to occupy a portion of the city on the southern banks of the Euphrates. Broadly the Jbela and Hamidiyeh districts down to al-Arfi Street.
The Syrians however have been able to cling onto two pockets on the outskirts of the city;
To the west they have been limited to an area stretching from their 137th Brigade base into the south-west of the city up to the Cemetery area.
To the east they have been restricted to an area stretching from the Airport complex into the south-east of the city up to the al-Rasafah district.
On September 5th (5/9/17) the Syrians were able to break through from as-Suknah to their 137th Brigade Base. This ended the more than three year siege on their forces in western Deir-ez-Zour City.
It also established the Suknah - Deir-ez-Zour Line.
On September 9th (9/9/17) the Syrians were able to advance across the Cemetery to the Harabesh Quarter district. This linked the west and eastern parts of Deir-ez-Zour city held by the Syrians lifting the siege on the Airport complex.
Liberating Deir-ez-Zour City was always going to be a complex operation. What you would normally do in this type of operation is completely surround the city laying siege to it. You would then study the enemy's defences to identify the weak points before applying overwhelming force to those week points.
However on September 9th (9/9/17) the SDF also took up positions at the Deir-ez-Zour Industrial Zone to the north of the city. This meant that the Syrians were prevented from fully surrounding the city.
Also the Syrians had never fully lost control of the city. That meant they didn't have the option of holding back in order to find the best places to attack. They were already in battle with ISIL in the 137th Brigade base and Airport areas of the city.
So rather than moving immediately to liberate all of Deir-ez-Zour City the Syrians first focused on liberating all of the areas around the city. This included the area north of the Suknah - Deir-ez-Zour Line along the banks of the Euphrates between Dalhah and Deir-ez-Zour.
This was completed on September 24th (24/9/17) with the liberation of the town of Madan. This sits around 55km (30 miles) south-east of Raqqa and around 65km (40 miles) north-west of Deir-ez-Zour City.
The Syrians then set about liberating Deir-ez-Zour City itself.
Starting from the Airport area they liberated the Jafra Farms areas crossing onto the north bank of the Euphrates on September 19th (19/9/17). Having crossed onto the north bank of the Euphrates the Syrians quickly liberating the al-Hatlah Tahtani, Hatlah al-Shargiyah and Asus areas.
On October 10th (10/10/17) the Syrians took control of the H7 Highway bridge across the Euphrates. This trapped ISIL in the portion of the city that sits on the south bank of the Euphrates.
On October 26th (26/10/17) the Syrians liberated Saqr Island. This sits in the Euphrates River between the H7 Highway and the Jafra Farms area to the south.
Within the main body of Deir-ez-Zour itself ISIL have been limited to just eleven districts between al-Qussour to the west and al-Sinaa to the east. These include the Old Airport district containing the Municipal Stadium complex. This is believed to have functioned as ISIL main headquarters within Deir-ez-Zour City.
On October 29th (29/10/17) the Syrians liberated the two Workers districts and the Mayssalon district. These sit directly south of the Old Airport District.
On Tuesday (31/10/17) the Syrians liberated the Old Airport district ousting ISIL from their headquarters in the city.
Having lost control of their headquarters ISIL then suffered a collapse in their defences.
In the space of a day on Wednesday (1/11/17) they lost control of the ar-Rashidya and Jubailah districts which sit in the centre of the city between the al-Qussour and al-Hamidiya districts. They also lost control of the Hawiqah districts which sit on an island in the Euphrates.
This left ISIL in control of just the Hamidiya, al-Jaradiq, Sheikh Yassin, Kenamat and al-Ardi districts.
Late yesterday (2/11/17) those remaining districts were fully liberated.
Today (3/11/17) the Syrians have been able to declare Deir-ez-Zour City fully liberated from ISIL.
While the Syrians were focused on liberating Deir-ez-Zour City and clearing the area to the north of the Suknah - Deir-ez-Zour Line ISIL attacked the line from the south.
On September 28th (28/9/17) ISIL forces in Mayadin launched their "Abu Muhammad al-Adani Offensive." This was intended to break Syrian lines both between Deir-ez-Zour and as-Suknah and between as-Suknah and Palmyra.
On September 29th (29/9/17) the Syrians launched an offensive of their own to counter the al-Adani offensive.
By October 6th (6/10/17) they had pushed ISIL all the way back to the outskirts of Mayadin. This sits on the Euphrates around 60km (35 miles) south-east of Deir-ez-Zour.
On October 14th (14/10/17) the Syrians liberated Mayadin.
The liberation of Raqqa, Deir-ez-Zour and Mayadin means that ISIL hold now just one population centre in Syria.
This is the town of al-Bukamal. It sits on the south bank of the Euphrates River around 100km (60 miles) south-east of Mayadin and just 5km (3 miles) from Syrians border with Iraq.
18:15 on 3/11/17 (UK date).
Thursday, 2 November 2017
This is Going to Take More Than a New York Minute. Pt.3
Subtitled: Operation Featherweight: Month 40, Week 3, Day 2.
This has to be read as a direct continuation of Part 2; https://watchitdie.blogspot.co.uk/2017/11/this-is-going-to-take-more-than-new_1.html
The Astana Process was born amid Erdogan's threats and violence. The first round of meetings were scheduled to take place on December 27th 2016 (27/12/16). However they were brought forward to December 20th (20/12/16) and held in Moscow, Russia.
On December 19th (19/12/16) Erdogan sent one of his personal police bodyguards - Mevlut Mert Altintas - to assassinate the Russian Ambassador to Turkey - Andrei Karlov - as he was opening an exhibition on Russian photography at an art gallery in Turkey's capital Ankara.
Under the terms of the 1961 Vienna Convention on Diplomatic Relations Turkey's failure to protect the Ambassador let alone that they carried out the assassination themselves constitutes an act of war by Turkey against Russia.
While the world was still reeling from the assassination of an Ambassador a heavy truck plowed into a crowd of shoppers at a Christmas Market at the Breitscheidplatz in Berlin, Germany. This Islamist run-over terror attack killed 12 a wounded 56.
The current Democrat Mayor of New York City is a man calling himself; "Bill de Blasio." However this is not his name. His actual name is Warren Wilhelm Jr.
With the Democrats billing themselves as the party of the ethnics Warren Wilhelm changed it to the more Hispanic sounding Bill de Blasio in order to appeal to the ethnic vote. Particularly New York's large Puerto Rican community who you may remember from such musicals as; "West Side Story."
Wilhelm is of course not a Hispanic but a German name. Probably the most famous of the German Wilhelms are the Wilhelm Dynasty which ruled Germany as Emperors until 1918. At the centre of Berlin's Breitscheidplatz you have the Kaiser Wilhelm Memorial Church which was built by Kaiser Wilhelm II.
At the end of First War World the victorious allied powers treated their vanquished opponents very harshly. Both the German Empire and their allies the Ottoman Empire were completely dismantled and divided up amongst the victors. They also imposed the ruinous 1919 Treaty of Versailles upon Germany forcing it to pay crippling war reparations.
In his rise to power Adolf Hitler cited the 1919 Treaty of Versailles and the loss of the German Empire as a sign of Germany's humiliation. He promised the German people that he would help restore their honour. Amid the annexation of the Sudetenland this led to the Second World War.
At the end of the Second World War the allied powers were keen to repeat the same mistake. So they instead made a concerted effort not to humiliate the German people.
This included honouring their suffering by allowing monuments like the Kaiser Wilhelm Memorial Church to remain standing. Including with the damage inflicted upon it by allied bombing in 1943.
The other large part of the plan for reconciliation in Germany was the Marshall Plan. This was an unprecedented financial effort by the victor nations - particularly the US - to pay for all of the war damage inflicted on Germany.
This was in stark contrast to what up until then had normally happened - the loser paying for all the damage inflicted on the winners. It was also in stark contrast to the way the US treated their ally the UK who were forced to pay for every bit of support the US had provided.
At the time of the Breitscheidplatz attack Erdogan and his forces in Syria were in full retreat and seemingly on the brink of defeat. Therefore the Marshall Plan was brought up almost as a plea from Erdogan that in defeat he be treated more like the Marshall Plan than the Treaty of Versailles.
A year on and as a direct result of the Astana Process Erdogan's forces are back on the front foot and undergoing something of a resurgence. Following September's sixth round of meetings Erdogan was finally able to deploy regular Turkish forces to annex the Sudetenland.
So on this occasion the Marshall Plan is being referenced in a demand by Erdogan that we pay for his illegal annexation of Syria. Just like he demands the European Union (EU) pays for the millions of Syrians currently residing in Turkey that Erdogan refuses to grant refugee status.
The main motive behind what is I think now officially being referred to as; "The West Side Attack" was August events in Charlottesville. The intention being to support the Democrats campaign strategy in Virgina's November 7th (7/11/17) election for Governor.
The events in Charlottesville began with a protest against the Democrat-led campaign to tear down statues honouring the US Civil War.
The US Civil War had many complex causes included the issue of state's rights and the level of autonomy individual states have from the Federal Government. This issue remains relevant today particularly influencing the way that Puerto Rico responds to Hurricanes Irma and Maria.
However the short version of the US Civil War is that slave owning Democrats went to war with Republicans who wanted to abolish slavery and set the slaves free.
With the Democrats billing themselves as the part of the ethnics that piece of history is extremely embarrassing for them. So they are absolutely desperate to erase any sign of it from the consciousness of voters.
As part of this campaign Democrats frequently turn around and say something like; "Germany doesn't allow monuments to the Second World War."
As the Kaiser Wilhelm Memorial Church demonstrates this is the exact opposite of the truth. At the end of the Second World War a conscious decision was made to create monuments to honour Germany's war time suffering both to aid reconstruction and provide a lesson from the past.
So in this context the reference to New York City's Kaiser and Berlin's Memorial Church was intended to feed into the conspiracy that President Trump ordered the killings as a false flag attack.
The New York City attacker was very quickly apprehended alive and identified as Sayfullo Saipov - a 29 year old immigrant from Uzbekistan.
Along with Kazakhstan Uzbekistan is one of the Central Asian nations that are often collectively referred to as; "The Stans." In Farsi the suffix "stan" means "Land Of" so Uzbekistan is literally; "Land of the Uzbek People."
Probably the most notorious of the Stans is Afghanistan.
Curiously Afghanistan is not actually home to one dominant ethnic group. People there don't really recognise the term "Afghan" instead referring to themselves as say Tajik, Hazara or in the case of the June 12th 2016 (12/6/16) Pulse nightclub attacker Omar Mateen, Pashtu.
In the days of the Soviet Union most all of the Stans were part of the Soviet Union. In 1979 the Soviets tried to expand their empire even further by invading Afghanistan. Largely in revenge for their defeat in Vietnam the US used radical Islam to recruit fighters to travel to Afghanistan to fight the Soviets.
Following the Soviet withdrawal in 1989 these radical Islamists became Al Qaeda and the Taliban. In 2001 Al Qaeda attacked the US prompting the US to invade Afghanistan. In response Al Qaeda used radical Islam to recruit fighters to travel to Afghanistan to fight the Americans.
In their effort to overthrow Syria's secular government in around 2012 the US teamed up with Al Qaeda to use radical Islam to recruit fighters to travel from Afghanistan to Syria and Iraq. There are even rumours that Osama bin Laden's son is currently active in Syria's Sudetenland. Under Turkish protection.
As a result Afghanistan has a generations long history of radical Islamist terror. You could almost go so far as to say it is what is considered normal in Afghanistan.
As ISIL and Al Qaeda are slowly being defeated in Iraq and Syria many of their fighters are returning to Afghanistan to fight the Americans once again.
The more eccentric elements of the US security establishment are even claiming that Russia are arming the Taliban to fight Al Qaeda and ISIL in Afghanistan. I think they're just bitter because that would certainly be a more sensible approach than invading the place.
So by using an Uzbek Erdogan is threatening that not only will he kill Americans in New York City he will kill Americans in Afghanistan. While at the same time attempting to drive a further wedge between the US and Russia.
The fact that Saipov is an immigrant to the US of course reignites the immigration debate. As the self-proclaimed Party of the Ethnics the Democrats have particularly latched onto this is an effort to portray President Trump as a racist.
Therefore it serves to fuel the conspiracy theory that Trump ordered the killings as a false flag attack.
The exact narrative being something along the lines of him attempting to put pressure on the heroic Democrat Judges who keep blocking his actions on particularly refugees and the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA). This would be done by portraying them as traitors to America who are aiding the enemy and endangering American lives.
After all that is exactly what those Democrat Judges are doing.
A point demonstrated by the fact that all of the rulings by Democrat Judges on Trump's immigration actions have since been ruled unlawful by the Supreme Court of the United States (SCOTUS). Democrat appointees to SCOTUS are desperately trying to kill the cases before they're left to rule their party cohorts are liars and traitors.
Particularly in the case of Hawaii Judge Derrick Watson this is exactly the sort of misconduct by public officials that the US Office of the Special Prosecutor normally concerns itself with.
Aside from threatening the US through the use of an Uzbek attacker Erdogan was also threatening Russia.
As I've said during the Soviet Union the Stans were all part of the same country. As a result there are many ethnic Uzbeks etc living within Russia and strong cultural links continue between the nations.
Alongside immigrants from the Stans Russia also has a large Muslim population of its own. Probably most famously in the Chechnya region. During the 1990's the western nations led by - bizarrely Sweden - used radical Islam to recruit fighters to fight against Russia.
As they have done in Afghanistan Al Qaeda and ISIL have recruited many of these fighters to travel to Syria and Iraq.
In the recent Battle of Raqqa I likened the situation at the National Hospital and Black Stadium 2004 Beslan School massacre. That's because the ISIL fighters in those locations are the same Chechens who committed the Beslan massacre.
Obviously many of those who've travelled to Syria and Iraq now want to return to Russia. They have friends and family who also want them to return. This puts great pressure on the Russian government to allow them to return.
By using an Uzbek attacker Erdogan is threatening to use those returnees or perhaps their relatives to attack Russia.
Due to the time difference the New York City attack occurred almost immediately before the start of a November 1st (1/11/17) ceremony in the Republic of Korea (RoK/South). This marked 100 days until the start of the 2018 Winter Olympic Games.
This picks up the baton from the 2014 Sochi games. Given what happened in and around those games you would expect that to be a touchy subject for Russia.
As with everything in the RoK the security situation is influenced by the ongoing cold war with its northern neighbour the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK).
Over the summer US Democrats have been desperately trying to inflame the situation. You the get the distinct impression they'd actually prefer a nuclear holocaust to admitting that Obama was a terrible President and Hillary Clinton a terrible Secretary of State.
Erdogan has long been trying to muscle in the issue of the DPRK.
As within Syria and Egypt this has involved establishing the radical Islamist terror group the Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army (ARSA) to attack the Burmese government. The Burmese government's response to those terror attacks is then proclaimed to be a genocide against Rohingya Muslims
So let's just say I'm relieved I'm not on the Winter Olympic security team. Even if I'm starting to feel a draught from here.
21:35 on 2/11/17 (UK date).
This has to be read as a direct continuation of Part 2; https://watchitdie.blogspot.co.uk/2017/11/this-is-going-to-take-more-than-new_1.html
The Astana Process was born amid Erdogan's threats and violence. The first round of meetings were scheduled to take place on December 27th 2016 (27/12/16). However they were brought forward to December 20th (20/12/16) and held in Moscow, Russia.
On December 19th (19/12/16) Erdogan sent one of his personal police bodyguards - Mevlut Mert Altintas - to assassinate the Russian Ambassador to Turkey - Andrei Karlov - as he was opening an exhibition on Russian photography at an art gallery in Turkey's capital Ankara.
Under the terms of the 1961 Vienna Convention on Diplomatic Relations Turkey's failure to protect the Ambassador let alone that they carried out the assassination themselves constitutes an act of war by Turkey against Russia.
While the world was still reeling from the assassination of an Ambassador a heavy truck plowed into a crowd of shoppers at a Christmas Market at the Breitscheidplatz in Berlin, Germany. This Islamist run-over terror attack killed 12 a wounded 56.
The current Democrat Mayor of New York City is a man calling himself; "Bill de Blasio." However this is not his name. His actual name is Warren Wilhelm Jr.
With the Democrats billing themselves as the party of the ethnics Warren Wilhelm changed it to the more Hispanic sounding Bill de Blasio in order to appeal to the ethnic vote. Particularly New York's large Puerto Rican community who you may remember from such musicals as; "West Side Story."
Wilhelm is of course not a Hispanic but a German name. Probably the most famous of the German Wilhelms are the Wilhelm Dynasty which ruled Germany as Emperors until 1918. At the centre of Berlin's Breitscheidplatz you have the Kaiser Wilhelm Memorial Church which was built by Kaiser Wilhelm II.
At the end of First War World the victorious allied powers treated their vanquished opponents very harshly. Both the German Empire and their allies the Ottoman Empire were completely dismantled and divided up amongst the victors. They also imposed the ruinous 1919 Treaty of Versailles upon Germany forcing it to pay crippling war reparations.
In his rise to power Adolf Hitler cited the 1919 Treaty of Versailles and the loss of the German Empire as a sign of Germany's humiliation. He promised the German people that he would help restore their honour. Amid the annexation of the Sudetenland this led to the Second World War.
At the end of the Second World War the allied powers were keen to repeat the same mistake. So they instead made a concerted effort not to humiliate the German people.
This included honouring their suffering by allowing monuments like the Kaiser Wilhelm Memorial Church to remain standing. Including with the damage inflicted upon it by allied bombing in 1943.
The other large part of the plan for reconciliation in Germany was the Marshall Plan. This was an unprecedented financial effort by the victor nations - particularly the US - to pay for all of the war damage inflicted on Germany.
This was in stark contrast to what up until then had normally happened - the loser paying for all the damage inflicted on the winners. It was also in stark contrast to the way the US treated their ally the UK who were forced to pay for every bit of support the US had provided.
At the time of the Breitscheidplatz attack Erdogan and his forces in Syria were in full retreat and seemingly on the brink of defeat. Therefore the Marshall Plan was brought up almost as a plea from Erdogan that in defeat he be treated more like the Marshall Plan than the Treaty of Versailles.
A year on and as a direct result of the Astana Process Erdogan's forces are back on the front foot and undergoing something of a resurgence. Following September's sixth round of meetings Erdogan was finally able to deploy regular Turkish forces to annex the Sudetenland.
So on this occasion the Marshall Plan is being referenced in a demand by Erdogan that we pay for his illegal annexation of Syria. Just like he demands the European Union (EU) pays for the millions of Syrians currently residing in Turkey that Erdogan refuses to grant refugee status.
The main motive behind what is I think now officially being referred to as; "The West Side Attack" was August events in Charlottesville. The intention being to support the Democrats campaign strategy in Virgina's November 7th (7/11/17) election for Governor.
The events in Charlottesville began with a protest against the Democrat-led campaign to tear down statues honouring the US Civil War.
The US Civil War had many complex causes included the issue of state's rights and the level of autonomy individual states have from the Federal Government. This issue remains relevant today particularly influencing the way that Puerto Rico responds to Hurricanes Irma and Maria.
However the short version of the US Civil War is that slave owning Democrats went to war with Republicans who wanted to abolish slavery and set the slaves free.
With the Democrats billing themselves as the part of the ethnics that piece of history is extremely embarrassing for them. So they are absolutely desperate to erase any sign of it from the consciousness of voters.
As part of this campaign Democrats frequently turn around and say something like; "Germany doesn't allow monuments to the Second World War."
As the Kaiser Wilhelm Memorial Church demonstrates this is the exact opposite of the truth. At the end of the Second World War a conscious decision was made to create monuments to honour Germany's war time suffering both to aid reconstruction and provide a lesson from the past.
So in this context the reference to New York City's Kaiser and Berlin's Memorial Church was intended to feed into the conspiracy that President Trump ordered the killings as a false flag attack.
The New York City attacker was very quickly apprehended alive and identified as Sayfullo Saipov - a 29 year old immigrant from Uzbekistan.
Along with Kazakhstan Uzbekistan is one of the Central Asian nations that are often collectively referred to as; "The Stans." In Farsi the suffix "stan" means "Land Of" so Uzbekistan is literally; "Land of the Uzbek People."
Probably the most notorious of the Stans is Afghanistan.
Curiously Afghanistan is not actually home to one dominant ethnic group. People there don't really recognise the term "Afghan" instead referring to themselves as say Tajik, Hazara or in the case of the June 12th 2016 (12/6/16) Pulse nightclub attacker Omar Mateen, Pashtu.
In the days of the Soviet Union most all of the Stans were part of the Soviet Union. In 1979 the Soviets tried to expand their empire even further by invading Afghanistan. Largely in revenge for their defeat in Vietnam the US used radical Islam to recruit fighters to travel to Afghanistan to fight the Soviets.
Following the Soviet withdrawal in 1989 these radical Islamists became Al Qaeda and the Taliban. In 2001 Al Qaeda attacked the US prompting the US to invade Afghanistan. In response Al Qaeda used radical Islam to recruit fighters to travel to Afghanistan to fight the Americans.
In their effort to overthrow Syria's secular government in around 2012 the US teamed up with Al Qaeda to use radical Islam to recruit fighters to travel from Afghanistan to Syria and Iraq. There are even rumours that Osama bin Laden's son is currently active in Syria's Sudetenland. Under Turkish protection.
As a result Afghanistan has a generations long history of radical Islamist terror. You could almost go so far as to say it is what is considered normal in Afghanistan.
As ISIL and Al Qaeda are slowly being defeated in Iraq and Syria many of their fighters are returning to Afghanistan to fight the Americans once again.
The more eccentric elements of the US security establishment are even claiming that Russia are arming the Taliban to fight Al Qaeda and ISIL in Afghanistan. I think they're just bitter because that would certainly be a more sensible approach than invading the place.
So by using an Uzbek Erdogan is threatening that not only will he kill Americans in New York City he will kill Americans in Afghanistan. While at the same time attempting to drive a further wedge between the US and Russia.
The fact that Saipov is an immigrant to the US of course reignites the immigration debate. As the self-proclaimed Party of the Ethnics the Democrats have particularly latched onto this is an effort to portray President Trump as a racist.
Therefore it serves to fuel the conspiracy theory that Trump ordered the killings as a false flag attack.
The exact narrative being something along the lines of him attempting to put pressure on the heroic Democrat Judges who keep blocking his actions on particularly refugees and the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA). This would be done by portraying them as traitors to America who are aiding the enemy and endangering American lives.
After all that is exactly what those Democrat Judges are doing.
A point demonstrated by the fact that all of the rulings by Democrat Judges on Trump's immigration actions have since been ruled unlawful by the Supreme Court of the United States (SCOTUS). Democrat appointees to SCOTUS are desperately trying to kill the cases before they're left to rule their party cohorts are liars and traitors.
Particularly in the case of Hawaii Judge Derrick Watson this is exactly the sort of misconduct by public officials that the US Office of the Special Prosecutor normally concerns itself with.
Aside from threatening the US through the use of an Uzbek attacker Erdogan was also threatening Russia.
As I've said during the Soviet Union the Stans were all part of the same country. As a result there are many ethnic Uzbeks etc living within Russia and strong cultural links continue between the nations.
Alongside immigrants from the Stans Russia also has a large Muslim population of its own. Probably most famously in the Chechnya region. During the 1990's the western nations led by - bizarrely Sweden - used radical Islam to recruit fighters to fight against Russia.
As they have done in Afghanistan Al Qaeda and ISIL have recruited many of these fighters to travel to Syria and Iraq.
In the recent Battle of Raqqa I likened the situation at the National Hospital and Black Stadium 2004 Beslan School massacre. That's because the ISIL fighters in those locations are the same Chechens who committed the Beslan massacre.
Obviously many of those who've travelled to Syria and Iraq now want to return to Russia. They have friends and family who also want them to return. This puts great pressure on the Russian government to allow them to return.
By using an Uzbek attacker Erdogan is threatening to use those returnees or perhaps their relatives to attack Russia.
Due to the time difference the New York City attack occurred almost immediately before the start of a November 1st (1/11/17) ceremony in the Republic of Korea (RoK/South). This marked 100 days until the start of the 2018 Winter Olympic Games.
This picks up the baton from the 2014 Sochi games. Given what happened in and around those games you would expect that to be a touchy subject for Russia.
As with everything in the RoK the security situation is influenced by the ongoing cold war with its northern neighbour the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK).
Over the summer US Democrats have been desperately trying to inflame the situation. You the get the distinct impression they'd actually prefer a nuclear holocaust to admitting that Obama was a terrible President and Hillary Clinton a terrible Secretary of State.
Erdogan has long been trying to muscle in the issue of the DPRK.
As within Syria and Egypt this has involved establishing the radical Islamist terror group the Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army (ARSA) to attack the Burmese government. The Burmese government's response to those terror attacks is then proclaimed to be a genocide against Rohingya Muslims
So let's just say I'm relieved I'm not on the Winter Olympic security team. Even if I'm starting to feel a draught from here.
21:35 on 2/11/17 (UK date).
Wednesday, 1 November 2017
This is Going to Take More Than a New York Minute. Pt.2
Subtitled; Operation Featherweight: Month 40, Week 3, Day 1.5.
This has to be read as a direct continuation of Part 1; https://watchitdie.blogspot.co.uk/2017/11/this-is-going-to-take-more-than-new.html
Yesterday's (31/10/17) Islamist run-over terror attack in New York City forces me to comment on the seventh round of meetings in the Astana Process. Something that I'm far from happy to do.
It also acts as a clear threat to the US. It shows that the Muslim Brotherhood can come into America's and kill people. In this case 8 people, 7 Argentinian citizens and one Belgian. The fact it occurred in shadow of the memorial to the September 11th 2001 (11/9/01) terror attacks only serves to amplify that threat.
As a run-over type attack it invoked memories of events in Charlottesville, Virginia over the weekend of August 12th (12/8/17).
Here white nationalist groups gathered to protest the removal of US Civil War era statues. After trying and failing to have the protest blocked by the Courts local Democrat leaders called on the public to travel to Charlottesville to stop the protests by force. This violence was carried out under the banner of Anti-Fascist Action (Antifa).
In the afternoon of August 12th (12/9/17) a car struck a group of the Antifa protesters on the Water Pedestrian Mall. This collision resulted in the death of one person - Heather Heyer. Democrats immediately condemned this as an act of; "White Terror."
The original White Terror was a policy of Spanish fascist leader Francisco Franco. Both during the Spanish Civil War and until his death in 1975.
Although Franco was a white supremacist the worst atrocities of his White Terror were actually carried out by Muhamed Meziane - a black Muslim from Morocco. This is just one of many examples of the close collaboration between Muslims and fascists.
Antifa also has its roots in the Spanish Civil War. One of the most famous leaders of the movement was Buenaventura Durruti a Catalan Anarchist who was the most successful leaders of anti-Franco forces until his death in 1936.
Five days after the events in Charlottesville on August 17th (17/8/17) there was an Islamist run-over terror attack in the Catalan city of Barcelona, Spain. Specifically a truck mowed people down along Las Ramblas street - scene of Durruti's very famous 1936 funeral.
Both the events in Charlottesville and the Barcelona terror attack occurred at a time when Erdogan was absolutely desperate to send regular Turkish forces to annex the Sudetenland area of Syria. Both events were planned to assist Erdogan in this goal.
Although ISIL screwed up by claiming responsibility the Barcelona attack was intended to be blamed on the Army of Conquest. This would allow Erdogan to present his annexation of the Sudetenland as an effort to protect Europe from terror.
The events in Charlottesville were intended to stop President Trump intervening to block Erdogan's illegal actions. This would be achieved by pinning him down in a backlash fuelled by the Democrats and a hostile press.
I covered the events in both Charlottesville and Barcelona in detail here; https://watchitdie.blogspot.co.uk/2017/08/the-white-terror.html
The Democrats have very much made events in Charlottesville a central part of their campaign strategy.
At the time the Governor of Virgina where Charlottesville is located is the Democrat Terry McAuliffe.
You may remember that it was McAuliffe who paid close to US$1million in bribes to the FBI agent Andrew McCabe while McCabe was investigating Hillary Clinton for espionage against the US. Funnily enough Hillary Clinton was not prosecuted.
Governor McAuliffe's term of office has now come to an end. The Democrats hope he will be replaced by Ralph Northam in an election on November 7th (7/11/17). As part of their campaign the Democrats released a campaign advert entitled "American Nightmare."
It shows a pick-up truck similar to the one in the New York City attack trying to run-over Hispanic and Muslim children. The truck is flying a Confederate flag and has a bumper sticker endorsing Northam's Republican rival Ed Gillespie.
The video is a deliberate attempt to accuse the Republicans and Trump of not only supporting the killing of Heather Heyer but actively carrying it out.
The main bulk of the backlash President Trump has received over the events in Charlottesville centred around his refusal to declare it to be a White Terror attack.
The similarity between the New York City attack and the "American Nightmare" advert and particularly the fact it has been classed as a terror attack fits hand-in-glove with the Democrat's campaign strategy.
Almost immediately following the New York City attack the usual parasites were crawling out of the woodwork to accuse President Trump of racism.
The technical aspects of how things are classified as terror attacks or not is actually a very sensitive subject at the moment. So sensitive that many in the UK think Andrew McCabe should be fired from the FBI due to the way he conducted himself in response to the May 22n (22/5/17) MENA bombing.
However in Charlottesville you had a violent group assembled unlawfully. The collision occurred in an area that is normally closed off to vehicles in order to protect pedestrians from exactly that type of collision.
As such it has not yet been demonstrated that it was an intentional unlawful act. Let alone one that was politically motivated.
There is much clearer evidence that the New York City terror attack was both intentional and motivated by politics.
Also terrorists want to be classed as terrorists. It helps them spread terror. By denying them that legitimacy you can reduce their impact.
For example on June 17th 2015 (17/6/15) a man named Dylann Roof shot and killed 9 people in a predominately black Church in Charleston, South Carolina. Then President Obama immediately leapt on the case declaring it to be an act of politically motivated violence. This led to Roof being denied his right to a fair trial.
You can't help but wonder if the way in which Obama made a Martyr of Roof helped boost the attendance at the Charlottesville protest.
The associated Barcelona attack of course occurred in the Catalonia region of Spain.
On October 1st (1/10/17) the Catalan region held an illegal vote on independence. In no small part the Barcelona attack linked the Catalan vote to a similar illegal vote being held in Iraq's Kurdish Region.
On Tuesday (31/10/17) former Catalan President Carles Puigdemont was making a failed attempt to claim political asylum at the home of the European Union (EU) Belgium. This follows Catalan autonomy being suspended by the Spanish government and rebellion charges being pursued against Puigdemont.
In Iraq's Kurdish Region is even more tense. Although the Iraqi government has not yet suspended the Kurdish Region's autonomy there have been violent clashes as the Iraqi military has attempted to move the Kurdish Peshmerga back into the Kurdish Region.
On Tuesday (31/10/17) there were very tense negotiations taking place between the Iraqi military and the Kurdish Peshmerga to avoid further violence.
So by invoking the White Terror attacks in Charlottesville and Barcelona the New York City attack caused a lot of people a lot of headaches. Far beyond America.
At around 18:30 on 1/11/17 (UK date) I will pick this up after dinner. If I can order my thoughts.
Edited at around 20:10 on 1/11/17 (UK date) to add;
Yesterday's (31/10/17) terror attack in New York City of course occurred against the backdrop of the seventh round of meetings in the Astana Process.
As I've said these were accompanied by gesturing and stunts. The example I used was the UK's faking of an Islamist terror attack on September 15th (15/9/17). During the sixth round of meetings in the Astana Process.
I deal in conspiracies every day. Even I think US liberals and opponents to President Trump are a paranoid and delusional bunch.
Take for example the Sandra Bland case. Ms Bland was arrested for traffic offences in Texas, US on July 10th 2015 (10/7/15). Whilst in police custody she committed suicide. However to this day some people still claim she was murdered as part of a racist conspiracy covered up by the Freemasons, the Zionists, the Lizard People or whoever.
That is just one of many examples I could list. Do you remember the one about Micheal Brown having his hands up in surrender while shouting; "Don't Shoot?"
These people would like nothing more than to believe that President Trump ordered the New York City attack to divert attention from Mueller's Special Counsel investigation.
The conspiracy being that he's trying to pressure Mueller to stop by claiming he's helping to create a safe space for Al Qaeda in Syria from where they can conduct attacks against the US.
After all that is exactly what the Democrats are trying to do by spinning their Russian conspiracy.
The intention being that conspiracy theory would be fuelled by Trump's claim during the campaign that he could shoot someone on New York City's Fifth Avenue and still not lose any votes. Opponents of Trump still often point to that as an example of his arrogance and mental instability.
It would also be fuelled by a Tweet President Trump sent out a few hours before the attack. This wished everyone a safe Halloween. With the emphasis seeming to be on the "Safe."
The attack occurred pretty much a city block over from where New York City holds its annual Halloween Parade. The President's apparent focus on safety could suggest he knew something was coming.
In the US the big Halloween tradition is Trick or Treating. This involves often children knocking on stranger's doors and demanding a treat while threatening them with a trick. This is normally harmless with the treat being some sweets and the trick being a prank like throwing toilet paper into the person's trees.
However it can take on a much more menacing tone. Often resembling robbery with threats of violence.
Although many of you know it I'm not going to tell you exactly where in the UK I live. I will tell you though that one of the big recent political issues has been a change in welfare payments known as; "Universal Credit." Just on October 18th (18/10/17) the opposition Labour Party held a meaningless Parliamentary vote on the topic.
The Labour controlled local authority where I live has been part of a scheme trialling Universal Credit. They are very much not happy about their inability to force me to participate in this trial scheme.
Their militancy seems to be approaching the level where it could threaten the existing anti-ISIL truce. Something the UK Labour Party with their links to the US Democrat Party were never that keen on to begin with.
Former President Obama used to use his platform to urge people to attack me. Under the Twitter hashtag #FindYourPark. Trump's inauguration was marked by me suffering a robbery attempt.
So the New York Terror attack was carried out by the Muslim Brotherhood in order to exert pressure on the US and particularly President Trump in three main ways;
It shows that they can attack the US. With the attacker claiming to be a supporter of ISIL you would think that undermines Trump's claim that he is defeating ISIL. However Erdogan is a big backer of ISIL. Erdogan is not happy.
By referencing events in Charlottesville it plays directly into a central part of the Democrats main campaign strategy. It may even help Ralph Northam win control of Virgina for the Democrats on November 7th (7/11/17).
It was intended to fuel a conspiracy theory that President Trump is mentally unstable and goes around killing people on the streets of New York City.
As what Erdogan wants from issuing these threats he has already been able to partially annex the Sudetenland in Syria's north-west. It is hardly a secret that he wants consolidate his control of that area before moving into the SDF controlled areas of Afrin Canton and Shangri-La to the east.
Due to current Democrat Mayor of New York City "Bill de Blasio" actual name there is also reference to the Kaiser Wilhelm Memorial Church. This overlooks the Breitscheidplatz in Berlin, Germany.
The reference is to why the Breitscheidplatz was the target for a run-over Islamist terror attack at the start of the Astana Process on December 19th 2016 (19/12/16).
I covered that in detail across four posts starting here; https://watchitdie.blogspot.co.uk/2016/12/operation-featherweight-month-29-week-5_20.html
It is also an attempt to fuel anti-Trump conspiracy theories. The people who wish to tear down US Civil War statues such as was being opposed in in Charlottesville often claim you don't see World War Two statues and memorials in Germany.
As the Kaiser Wilhelm Memorial Church demonstrates that is very much untrue.
Unfortunately I will have to wait until tomorrow to add detail to that. I've reached the point where this isn't even making sense to me any more. I'm the one writing it.
21:05 on 1/11/17 (UK date).
This has to be read as a direct continuation of Part 1; https://watchitdie.blogspot.co.uk/2017/11/this-is-going-to-take-more-than-new.html
Yesterday's (31/10/17) Islamist run-over terror attack in New York City forces me to comment on the seventh round of meetings in the Astana Process. Something that I'm far from happy to do.
It also acts as a clear threat to the US. It shows that the Muslim Brotherhood can come into America's and kill people. In this case 8 people, 7 Argentinian citizens and one Belgian. The fact it occurred in shadow of the memorial to the September 11th 2001 (11/9/01) terror attacks only serves to amplify that threat.
As a run-over type attack it invoked memories of events in Charlottesville, Virginia over the weekend of August 12th (12/8/17).
Here white nationalist groups gathered to protest the removal of US Civil War era statues. After trying and failing to have the protest blocked by the Courts local Democrat leaders called on the public to travel to Charlottesville to stop the protests by force. This violence was carried out under the banner of Anti-Fascist Action (Antifa).
In the afternoon of August 12th (12/9/17) a car struck a group of the Antifa protesters on the Water Pedestrian Mall. This collision resulted in the death of one person - Heather Heyer. Democrats immediately condemned this as an act of; "White Terror."
The original White Terror was a policy of Spanish fascist leader Francisco Franco. Both during the Spanish Civil War and until his death in 1975.
Although Franco was a white supremacist the worst atrocities of his White Terror were actually carried out by Muhamed Meziane - a black Muslim from Morocco. This is just one of many examples of the close collaboration between Muslims and fascists.
Antifa also has its roots in the Spanish Civil War. One of the most famous leaders of the movement was Buenaventura Durruti a Catalan Anarchist who was the most successful leaders of anti-Franco forces until his death in 1936.
Five days after the events in Charlottesville on August 17th (17/8/17) there was an Islamist run-over terror attack in the Catalan city of Barcelona, Spain. Specifically a truck mowed people down along Las Ramblas street - scene of Durruti's very famous 1936 funeral.
Both the events in Charlottesville and the Barcelona terror attack occurred at a time when Erdogan was absolutely desperate to send regular Turkish forces to annex the Sudetenland area of Syria. Both events were planned to assist Erdogan in this goal.
Although ISIL screwed up by claiming responsibility the Barcelona attack was intended to be blamed on the Army of Conquest. This would allow Erdogan to present his annexation of the Sudetenland as an effort to protect Europe from terror.
The events in Charlottesville were intended to stop President Trump intervening to block Erdogan's illegal actions. This would be achieved by pinning him down in a backlash fuelled by the Democrats and a hostile press.
I covered the events in both Charlottesville and Barcelona in detail here; https://watchitdie.blogspot.co.uk/2017/08/the-white-terror.html
The Democrats have very much made events in Charlottesville a central part of their campaign strategy.
At the time the Governor of Virgina where Charlottesville is located is the Democrat Terry McAuliffe.
You may remember that it was McAuliffe who paid close to US$1million in bribes to the FBI agent Andrew McCabe while McCabe was investigating Hillary Clinton for espionage against the US. Funnily enough Hillary Clinton was not prosecuted.
Governor McAuliffe's term of office has now come to an end. The Democrats hope he will be replaced by Ralph Northam in an election on November 7th (7/11/17). As part of their campaign the Democrats released a campaign advert entitled "American Nightmare."
It shows a pick-up truck similar to the one in the New York City attack trying to run-over Hispanic and Muslim children. The truck is flying a Confederate flag and has a bumper sticker endorsing Northam's Republican rival Ed Gillespie.
The video is a deliberate attempt to accuse the Republicans and Trump of not only supporting the killing of Heather Heyer but actively carrying it out.
The main bulk of the backlash President Trump has received over the events in Charlottesville centred around his refusal to declare it to be a White Terror attack.
The similarity between the New York City attack and the "American Nightmare" advert and particularly the fact it has been classed as a terror attack fits hand-in-glove with the Democrat's campaign strategy.
Almost immediately following the New York City attack the usual parasites were crawling out of the woodwork to accuse President Trump of racism.
The technical aspects of how things are classified as terror attacks or not is actually a very sensitive subject at the moment. So sensitive that many in the UK think Andrew McCabe should be fired from the FBI due to the way he conducted himself in response to the May 22n (22/5/17) MENA bombing.
However in Charlottesville you had a violent group assembled unlawfully. The collision occurred in an area that is normally closed off to vehicles in order to protect pedestrians from exactly that type of collision.
As such it has not yet been demonstrated that it was an intentional unlawful act. Let alone one that was politically motivated.
There is much clearer evidence that the New York City terror attack was both intentional and motivated by politics.
Also terrorists want to be classed as terrorists. It helps them spread terror. By denying them that legitimacy you can reduce their impact.
For example on June 17th 2015 (17/6/15) a man named Dylann Roof shot and killed 9 people in a predominately black Church in Charleston, South Carolina. Then President Obama immediately leapt on the case declaring it to be an act of politically motivated violence. This led to Roof being denied his right to a fair trial.
You can't help but wonder if the way in which Obama made a Martyr of Roof helped boost the attendance at the Charlottesville protest.
The associated Barcelona attack of course occurred in the Catalonia region of Spain.
On October 1st (1/10/17) the Catalan region held an illegal vote on independence. In no small part the Barcelona attack linked the Catalan vote to a similar illegal vote being held in Iraq's Kurdish Region.
On Tuesday (31/10/17) former Catalan President Carles Puigdemont was making a failed attempt to claim political asylum at the home of the European Union (EU) Belgium. This follows Catalan autonomy being suspended by the Spanish government and rebellion charges being pursued against Puigdemont.
In Iraq's Kurdish Region is even more tense. Although the Iraqi government has not yet suspended the Kurdish Region's autonomy there have been violent clashes as the Iraqi military has attempted to move the Kurdish Peshmerga back into the Kurdish Region.
On Tuesday (31/10/17) there were very tense negotiations taking place between the Iraqi military and the Kurdish Peshmerga to avoid further violence.
So by invoking the White Terror attacks in Charlottesville and Barcelona the New York City attack caused a lot of people a lot of headaches. Far beyond America.
At around 18:30 on 1/11/17 (UK date) I will pick this up after dinner. If I can order my thoughts.
Edited at around 20:10 on 1/11/17 (UK date) to add;
Yesterday's (31/10/17) terror attack in New York City of course occurred against the backdrop of the seventh round of meetings in the Astana Process.
As I've said these were accompanied by gesturing and stunts. The example I used was the UK's faking of an Islamist terror attack on September 15th (15/9/17). During the sixth round of meetings in the Astana Process.
I deal in conspiracies every day. Even I think US liberals and opponents to President Trump are a paranoid and delusional bunch.
Take for example the Sandra Bland case. Ms Bland was arrested for traffic offences in Texas, US on July 10th 2015 (10/7/15). Whilst in police custody she committed suicide. However to this day some people still claim she was murdered as part of a racist conspiracy covered up by the Freemasons, the Zionists, the Lizard People or whoever.
That is just one of many examples I could list. Do you remember the one about Micheal Brown having his hands up in surrender while shouting; "Don't Shoot?"
These people would like nothing more than to believe that President Trump ordered the New York City attack to divert attention from Mueller's Special Counsel investigation.
The conspiracy being that he's trying to pressure Mueller to stop by claiming he's helping to create a safe space for Al Qaeda in Syria from where they can conduct attacks against the US.
After all that is exactly what the Democrats are trying to do by spinning their Russian conspiracy.
The intention being that conspiracy theory would be fuelled by Trump's claim during the campaign that he could shoot someone on New York City's Fifth Avenue and still not lose any votes. Opponents of Trump still often point to that as an example of his arrogance and mental instability.
It would also be fuelled by a Tweet President Trump sent out a few hours before the attack. This wished everyone a safe Halloween. With the emphasis seeming to be on the "Safe."
The attack occurred pretty much a city block over from where New York City holds its annual Halloween Parade. The President's apparent focus on safety could suggest he knew something was coming.
In the US the big Halloween tradition is Trick or Treating. This involves often children knocking on stranger's doors and demanding a treat while threatening them with a trick. This is normally harmless with the treat being some sweets and the trick being a prank like throwing toilet paper into the person's trees.
However it can take on a much more menacing tone. Often resembling robbery with threats of violence.
Although many of you know it I'm not going to tell you exactly where in the UK I live. I will tell you though that one of the big recent political issues has been a change in welfare payments known as; "Universal Credit." Just on October 18th (18/10/17) the opposition Labour Party held a meaningless Parliamentary vote on the topic.
The Labour controlled local authority where I live has been part of a scheme trialling Universal Credit. They are very much not happy about their inability to force me to participate in this trial scheme.
Their militancy seems to be approaching the level where it could threaten the existing anti-ISIL truce. Something the UK Labour Party with their links to the US Democrat Party were never that keen on to begin with.
Former President Obama used to use his platform to urge people to attack me. Under the Twitter hashtag #FindYourPark. Trump's inauguration was marked by me suffering a robbery attempt.
So the New York Terror attack was carried out by the Muslim Brotherhood in order to exert pressure on the US and particularly President Trump in three main ways;
It shows that they can attack the US. With the attacker claiming to be a supporter of ISIL you would think that undermines Trump's claim that he is defeating ISIL. However Erdogan is a big backer of ISIL. Erdogan is not happy.
By referencing events in Charlottesville it plays directly into a central part of the Democrats main campaign strategy. It may even help Ralph Northam win control of Virgina for the Democrats on November 7th (7/11/17).
It was intended to fuel a conspiracy theory that President Trump is mentally unstable and goes around killing people on the streets of New York City.
As what Erdogan wants from issuing these threats he has already been able to partially annex the Sudetenland in Syria's north-west. It is hardly a secret that he wants consolidate his control of that area before moving into the SDF controlled areas of Afrin Canton and Shangri-La to the east.
Due to current Democrat Mayor of New York City "Bill de Blasio" actual name there is also reference to the Kaiser Wilhelm Memorial Church. This overlooks the Breitscheidplatz in Berlin, Germany.
The reference is to why the Breitscheidplatz was the target for a run-over Islamist terror attack at the start of the Astana Process on December 19th 2016 (19/12/16).
I covered that in detail across four posts starting here; https://watchitdie.blogspot.co.uk/2016/12/operation-featherweight-month-29-week-5_20.html
It is also an attempt to fuel anti-Trump conspiracy theories. The people who wish to tear down US Civil War statues such as was being opposed in in Charlottesville often claim you don't see World War Two statues and memorials in Germany.
As the Kaiser Wilhelm Memorial Church demonstrates that is very much untrue.
Unfortunately I will have to wait until tomorrow to add detail to that. I've reached the point where this isn't even making sense to me any more. I'm the one writing it.
21:05 on 1/11/17 (UK date).
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