Tuesday, 6 January 2009

Israel - Gaza War Day 11: Bored Now.

With white phosphorus shells in the air and troops on the ground it is becoming increasingly clear that no end to this war will come until Israel has reached it's quota of dead Palestinians. That means there's not much left for me to do except tally up the respective body counts.

At the moment this stands at 4 Israeli civilians, 5 Israeli soldiers and around 650 Palestinians although it is hard to get accurate reports out of Gaza itself because in spite of a ruling by Israel's own high court the Israeli Defence Force are still refusing to allow foreign journalists into Gaza. The main reason they are using to justify this ban is to prevent details of IDF troop movements falling into the hands of Hamas fighters so I think it is time for me to call it a day for now.

Monday, 5 January 2009

Israel - Gaza War Day 10: I'd hate to call a politican a liar but

Yesterday the Israeli government announced that it had no plans to occupy Gaza. As they were making this announcement the Israeli Defence Force continued to occupy positions within Gaza. So far over 550 Palestinians have been killed along with 4 Israeli civilians and 1 IDF solider. While Hamas rocket fire into Israel continues the IDF appear to be expanding their operations loosely following what anyone familiar with British Public Order Policing would describe as a "Key or F formation.". In this technique the security services (shown in black) identify a group of what we shall call dissidents (shown in Purple);
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They then surround it with a cordon;
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Next they will put a column of officers into the group of dissidents
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Once the initial column has been established they will add officers to it who will eventually form to offshoot columns in a loose "F" shape.
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This process will continue with the idea of breaking the group up into smaller, more manageable pieces much like a cancer slowly destroying an healthy organ.
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Although I expect the IDF armed with tanks and machine guns to be more violent then a police force armed with batons and pepper spray the purpose of this tactic is to move slowly and peacefully in order to minimise the opportunity for confrontation making it a very difficult tactic to defend against. The problem with non-confrontational warfare of this sort is that it can go on for bloody ages providing sometimes years of "entertainment" as fighters from both sides try to outwit each other.

This means that the Israeli's end game could well end up with them bringing Gazan out of the controlled sectors one by one before decided whether they're a terrorist who gets sent to jail or a civilian who gets sent to a refugee camp. If this turns out to be the case then they should definitely turn the whole thing into a American Idol/ X Factor style TV talent show where the judging panel is made up by the three candidates in Israel's upcoming election. I can imagine it now;
"Up next Ben, Tzvipi and Ehud we have Mahmoud who's 12. Both his parents were killed in a recent air-raid and he wants to win so he can go and live with his grandparents in Egypt. Tonight he will be signing Paradise City by Guns&Roses!"

Sunday, 4 January 2009

Israel - Gaza War Day 9: Time to make myself really popular.

Just as anti-war rallies across Europe were coming to an end, the televised FA cup game was entering it's second half and Britain was holding it's breath awaiting the announcement of the new Doctor Who Israel decided to launch it's land invasion of Gaza.

At around 18:30 GMT 4 columns of infantry and light armour crossed the northern Gaza border and have pushed down seizing control of the main North-South road to just south of Gaza city surrounding major towns and refugee camps as they went. So far the IDF have reported to have killed at least 20 Hamas fighters and Hamas have reported killing 5 Israeli troops and capturing a further 2 although Israeli reporting restrictions mean that neither figure can be confirmed. It has also been reported that at 20 civilians have been killed by the Israeli artillery barrage.

The timing of this ground assault is particularly interesting because over the last couple of days there has been a lot of telephone chatter and diplomatic rumor suggesting that in spite of the extreme provocation they've been under for the last two years Hamas were beginning to be able to politically justify a ceasefire while the legalities and practicalities of the Israel blockade are discussed. If the Israelis were aware of these rumours then it would appear that the IDF rushed their ground offensive in order to get their killing done while they could still justify it as a defensive action.

Israeli officials have warned that this invasion and occupation of the North of Gaza could last for days if not weeks and I think there are two ways in which the situation could develop. It could be an attempt to establish a bridge head within northern Gaza from which Israelis will gradually expand their occupation. It is more likely though that the IDF will hold their ground and lay siege to towns like Gaza City and Beit Hanoun giving them their own individual, miniture versions of the wider Gaza blockade. As the Israeli intelligence picture begins to clear of what the Hamas assets are in these locations those assets will be destroyed by air-strike, artillery fire and as a last resort commando raid. The doomsday scenario is that the IDF will dig in World War 1 style and not stop shooting until every last Gazan has either charged the Israeli machine guns or starved to death.

As the current tactics of the Israeli army in Gaza are looking worryingly similar to the tactics the British Army deployed to control the 2008 Climate Camp I think it is important to look at yesterday's anti-war demonstration in London.

The Stop The War Coalition held their traditional march from the Embankment, past the Houses of Parliament and up Whitehall where organisers encouraged people to throw shoes at Downing street which gave the police the perfect opportunity to don their anti-projectile protective clothing (Riot shields and Helmets to you guv). The march then ended with a rally in the great public-order holding pen known as Trafalgar square. As the rally began to wind down a group of around 2000 protesters broke away and started to head for "Embassy Land" in Kensington. As this scenario has been played out dozens of times before the police acted quickly deploying lines of officers to filter the crowd and bring them under control. Once the break out group had been corralled into a moving cordon they were led down the Regent Street underpass which is essentially a tunnel with high walls and a concrete roof. Having trapped the protesters in a confined space away from prying eyes the police baton charged them three times, cracking heads and pissing everyone off in what the police have describes as; "one 10-metre advance into the crowd to regain control of the protest, using recognised and proportionate tactics". Following the beating the protesters were allowed to continue to the Israeli Embassy where a hard-core of masked up demonstrators clashed further with the police. Snatch squads were not deployed and the number of arrests is said to be quite low although quite a few needed medical treatment.

Although I don't wish to criticize anyone who is prepared to stand up and be counted I'm not quite sure exactly what this piece of street theatre hoped to achieve after all the British Government has already proved itself to be so whipped on the issue of Zionism it can't even call it's own troops to order let alone question the actions of the IDF. In fact the whole performance may well have made things worse because images of protesters in faux-Islamic dress clashing with police makes it much easier for the Israeli government to portray their own anti-war protesters as terrorist sympathisers and crack down on them as threats to domestic security. Plus long after the bruises have healed and the photographs have faded the British Police with analysing events and running scenarios to find more effective ways to pacify protests from young Arab men. Then, as part of a future "Peace process", Shin Beit will turn round and say to Britain that they would recognise a two state solution just as soon as those young Arab men on the West Bank would stop rioting. Britain will then no doubt furnish them with pages of data on the subject and the Israeli's will reverse engineer it to find ways to make West Bank protests more violent so they can justify yet another defensive action in much the same way they've fully understood for years that the Qassam rocket attacks from Gaza are an anarchic response to the blockade rather then any serious attempt to threaten Israels security.

Given all that I personally think the best way to show solidarity with the Palestinians is to go down the pub and watch the football. After all Israel seems to be bedding down for a long war.

Saturday, 3 January 2009

Israel - Gaza War Day 8 1/2: It's all kicked off.

In London there have been some clashes with the police outside the Israeli Embassy and the Israeli Defence Force have deployed an indeterminate number of troops an indeterminate distance inside the Gaza border. As yet it is not clear if this is a large scale invasion or a small scale incursion designed to establish a bridgehead.

As the situation is currently quite chaotic both here and there I will wait until tomorrow to see how the situation develops but I will say there has been a strong rumour doing the rounds that Hamas were moving to offer an unconditional ceasefire on either Tuesday or Wednesday next week so it appears the Israelis have moved to grab as much land as they can while they still justify it as a defensive operation.

Israel - Gaza War Day 8: It's starting to look a lot like Murder.

With Israeli forces stepping up their bombardment and death-toll on Gaza fast rising to 500 protests have broken out across the UK calling for an end to the the violence. Normally these demonstrations are attended by these guys;

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As you can probably tell from the photograph they're a little bit Jewish. So Jewish in fact they part of a Orthodox community in North London. Aside from the usual pressures that Jewish and Muslim communities in the UK undergo every time time there's yet another Arab-Israeli war this community has had to endure the murder of one of their own. On New Years day neighbours discovered the bound and gagged body of an 83 year old in her locked house in Stanford Hill, North London. Although it could just be a massive coincidence that some very talented burglars murdered a woman in one of Britain's oldest Jewish neighbourhoods during the Israel-Gaza war this is the stuff that conspiracy theories are made of.

It could have been an anti-Semitic attack carried out by the Iranians as part of Hamas' "Day of rage against Zionist Targets worldwide". It could have been Mossad acting to silence a double agent. It could have been carried out by a CIA team attempting to smear the Iranians. Sadly though the murder was carried out by Britain's own MI5. If the use of their bound body in burglary gone wrong signature wasn't evidence enough they also took the trouble of owning up to it with a story about a toxic cloud drifting across the midlands, after originating in a town called Langley. The reasons why MI5 carried out this assassination are threefold in descending order of importance;

  1. A story about a woman in her 80's being tortured and murdered in her own home by burglar's drags up painful memories for my grandmother making her and my life that little bit more stressful.
  2. It allows MI5 to flood the normally closed and secretive community with police and other officers carrying out door to door enquiries.
  3. It creates tension and disruption designed to discourage Jews from attending today's demonstrations. They can then flood the mainly Muslim demonstrators with Hamas and Hezbollah merchandise making it appear a pro-Islam demonstration. By polarising protests like this it makes it much easier to portray the Palestinian - Israeli conflict as some sort of Biblical battle between the forces of good and evil rather the slightly childish land dispute it really is.

Of course by assassinating a Jew Britain has also managed to send out the message; "Britain likes killing Jews!" It makes you wonder who is really running Britain's security services because surely they can't be so stupid they actually want to see the country implode?

Friday, 2 January 2009

Israel Gaza War Day 7: Friday

Not the most impressive title I'll grant you but over the last couple of days the main topic of discussion has been what day it will be today so you'll excuse me if I've not exactly been playing out of the top drawer recently.

One of the things I've missed was the IDF's release, three days ago, of this video which purports to show a precision Israeli air strike against a Hamas rocket launching team killing seven militants. The next day it emerged that rather then being militants loading rockets onto a truck to take them to a launch site the people killed were actually employees of a local family firm loading Oxygen cylinders onto a truck to take them to a local hospital. The secondary explosions you can see in the video are those compressed gas cylinders exploding. The release of photographs of the wrecked vehicle and interviews with the owner of the business prompted the IDF to accuse Palestinian militants of trying to "manipulate the media" in a repeat of an incident in the Lebanon war when they accused Lebanese militants of lying for announcing that the IAF had destroyed an ambulance with missiles when in fact the IAF had destroyed it with cannon fire.

Today the Israeli Defence Force has allowed foreign passports holders to leave Gaza. Officially this has been done in response to immense diplomatic pressure from the countries such as the US, Germany, Russia and the UK who have issued those passports. It may however simply be an attempt by the Israelis to control the flow of information leaving Gaza by removing people who may be tempted to contact their relatives in western countries. International journalists are of course banned from reporting within Gaza because the Israel much prefers them reporting from Israeli towns like Sderot using pre-approved IDF press releases.

Israeli air strikes within Gaza have settled into a routine 60 a day although it is hard to identify how many separate targets are being engaged because the IAF seem to have adopted the tactic of bombing a target and then returning ten minutes later to bomb the same target. This is reminiscent of an old terrorist tactic of detonating a car bomb in order to draw in first responders before detonating another car bomb to kill those police officers, fire fighters and ambulance crews in order to maximise civilian casualties. Confirming the number of individual strikes and casualties is made even more difficult by a seemingly endless naval artillery barrage.

More details are beginning to emerge of the senior Hamas official, Nizar Rayyan, who was killed in a Israeli air strike yesterday. As the head of Gazas military Rayyan is considered by Israel to be one of Hamas five key decision makers although as with the often killed "Head of Al Qeada in Iraq" I fear that rather then making the post disappear all Israel have done is create a vacancy.

Whatever his true position within the Hamas political structure Mr Rayyan sounds like a bit of a character. The 49 year old law graduate who always appeared in combat fatigues was known as "the teacher" for his work training suicide bombers including two of his own sons. He went on to marry three of the widows of bombers he'd trained and fathered 12 children. He, his four wives and five of his children were killed when a 1 tonne Israeli bomb struck their home in Jabaliya. The targeting of such a colourful personality does make me wonder if rather then using it's bombs to hit hard military targets Israel is using it's military muscle to play a sort of "Gazan Big Brother" picking off the local celebrities with the most interesting back stories in order to create a bit of telephone chatter to help the "viewers" solve some of the mysteries of everyday life. It does also make me ask the question; Is there nothing Britain's Channel 4 won't do for a bit of attention?!

Hamas are continuing to deploy military grade rockets deep into Israel. There have been no reports of any fatalities but there have been several of what the Israelis are calling minor injuries. In the skies over Croydon the black helicopters are back and not the civilian ones from the local heliport either. No this one's a much beefier American model that's being a bit vague about it's registration marks so Good Luck!

Thursday, 1 January 2009

Israel - Gaza War Day 6: Rain and Tension.

Last night the Israel Defence Force (IDF) did not carry out a ground invasion of Gaza. This could be that there was never a invasion planned. It could be that dumping tonnes of cement dust, jet fuel and explosive residue into the atmosphere caused it to rain making Israel's military leadership concerned that as tank attack would quickly get bogged down in the mud. It could be that the Israeli political leadership decided that it would be incredibly difficult to diplomatically justify a land invasion. No doubt all these and other questions will all be answered to dramatic effect in the run up to Israel's election.

Meanwhile Israeli tanks are still in position along the Gazan border no doubt revving their engines, singing songs and making loud jokes about how they're going to get Ghilad back. All this is of course being done to raise tensions with Gaza in the hope that it will cause local forces to check and re-check their defences and in the process "lighting up" these defences as targets for the Israeli Air Force. In Gaza itself the IAF has suddenly discovered that their F-16's and Apache helicopters are in fact fitted with some of the latest laser-guided weapon targeting systems and have carried out a number of precision strikes including one on the home of a senior Hamas official who had publicly called from the resumption of suicide attacks within Israel. At the border crossing between Egypt and Gaza the IDF are reporting that they have allowed 19 truck loads of humanitarian aid into Gaza. Local sources are putting the actual number at closer to 4, raising the question of whether the IDF are just blatantly lying or are mis-counting support vehicles such as Land Rovers and Forklifts as truck loads of aid.

Rocket attacks have continued against civilian targets within Israel at the sort of ranges that would suggest that Hamas has begun to deploy it's stockpiles of military grade rockets alongside the traditional Qassams. As usual there have been no reports of any injuries or deaths although ironically 64 people were killed by fireworks in Thailand.

Now if anyone needs me I'm off to throttle the cat after he spent most of last night playing the hilarious game of mischievously licking my eyeball every time I went into REM sleep.