Operation Featherweight: Month 52, Week 1, Day 7.

The conflict in Syria can now be divided into five main areas;

Shangri-La, Garvaghy Road, Afrin Canton, the Sudetenland and Central Syria.

Central Syria:

This is really all parts of the country which are not otherwise designated. I would refer to it simply as; "Syria" only that would cause more confusion by implying the other areas are not part of Syria.

The liberation of Central Syria was the result of a nearly year long operation by the Syrians. In both the north and the south of the country this saw them advance from west to east.

In the north of the country the Syrians set out from Aleppo City in May 2017. By late July 2017 this northern axis had arrived at and liberated the town of Dalhah which sits on the southern bank of the Euphrates.

To the south of the country the Syrians set out from the Syrian capital Damascus. Also in May 2017. By early June 2017 this southern axis had reached the border between Syria and Iraq at the town of al-Tanf.

From al-Tanf the Syrians then advanced on the city of Palmyra which sits almost exactly in the centre of Syria. Palmyra had been liberated from Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) by the Syrians in March 2017.

In August 2017 Syrian forces from both Palmyra and Dalhah converged on the town of as-Suknah. From there they began the operation to liberate the southern banks of the Euphrates.

In December 2017 the Syrians liberated the towns of Qataa, Jalaa, Ramadi and Buqan. This allowed them to declare the southern bank of the Euphrates fully liberated from ISIL.

This though still left several pockets outside of Syrian control;

The first one of these was an area around the town of al-Tanf. This remained under the partial control of ISIL.

This ISIL pocket has been created by the US-led coalition, Combined Joint Taskforce: Operation Inherent Resolve (CJTFOIR). They operate a base close to al-Tanf designated; "Bobby Sands" which they use to train the Islamist Revolutionary Commando Army/Maghawir al-Thawra (MaT).

Due to the presence of now exclusively US troops the Syrians cannot engage ISIL in the vicinity of Bobby Sands. Likewise due to the presence of Syrian troops CJTFOIR also cannot engage ISIL in the vicinity of the base.

The second, much larger, pocket was centred around East Ghouta. This is a suburb which sits directly adjacent to the east of the Syrian capital Damascus.

The East Ghouta area though extends into the East Qalamoun Mountains. Ruhaybah, the main town in the East Qalamoun Mountains, sits around 35km (20 miles) north-east of Duma, the main town in the East Ghouta suburb.

East Ghouta itself and the East Qalamoun Mountains were long under the control of the Army of Conquest. The dominant members of the coalition in the area being Al Qaeda and the Army of Islam.

However their influence reduces the further you get into the East Qalamoun Mountains. An area largely controlled by small fragments of the long defunct Free Syrian Army (FSA).

The third pocket was the Yarmouk Camp for Palestinian refugees which sits around 5km (3 miles) south-west of the East Ghouta suburb. The Yarmouk Camp for Palestinian refugees was long under the control of ISIL. 

There was also an area to the west of the Central Syria area outside of Syrian control. The Yarmouk River Basin.

This area is the basin of the Yarmouk River in the very south-west of Syria. It includes Daraa Province, Quneitra Province and As-Suwayda Province. These run along Syria's borders with Jordan and Israel including the disputed Golan Heights and the United Nations Disengagement Observer Force (UNDOF) zone.

The Army of Conquest had a presence in the area. Again with Al Qaeda and the Army of Islam being the locally dominant factions within the coalition.

The ISIL affiliate the Army of Khalid Ibrahim al-Walid/Jaish Khalid Ibrahim al-Walid also operated in the Yarmouk River Basin.

The main group in the area though was the Southern Front. This is a loose coalition of FSA fragments which did not join the Army of Conquest. Backed by particularly Britain and Jordan they are a difficult group to place ideologically. So fragments are secular like the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF/QSD). Others are deeply Islamist and owe more to the Army of Conquest.

In late February 2018 the Syrians launched an operation to liberate the East Ghouta suburb itself. This operation ended in success on April 12th (12/4/18). The Army of Islam faction of the Army of Conquest surrendered surrendered the town of Douma placing the entire East Ghouta suburb under Syrian control.



While conducting operations within the East Ghouta suburb the Syrians were also attempting to regain control over the East Qalamoun Mountains.



On April 25th (25/4/18) Syrian forces formally entered and raised the Syrian national flag over the towns of Ruhaybah and Jayroud. This marked the complete and total liberation of the East Qalamoun Mountains area.


The Battle of East Ghouta saw all the Islamist groups unite to attack Syrian forces across the country. In an effort to support the Army of Islam in the battle by dividing the Syrian forces.

This Islamist alliance included ISIL who began attacking the Syrians from the Yarmouk Camp for Palestinian Refugees. On March 16th (16/3/18) the Syrian lines around the Yarmouk Camp collapsed allowing ISIL to take control of the adjoining al-Qadam district to the west and the adjoining Hajar al-Aswad district to the south. Both of which are districts of Damascus itself.

On April 15th (15/4/18) the Syrians began an operation to recover the al-Qadam and Hajar al-Aswad districts and to expel ISIL from the Yarmouk Camp completely.


On April 30th (30/4/18) the Army of Conquest within the Yarmouk Camp formally surrendered to the Syrians.


On May 21st (21/5/18) ISIL also surrendered to the Syrians. This saw them surrender all but their light weapons and be transferred to the small pocket around the Bobby Sands base close to al-Tanf.

On May 22nd (22/5/18) the Syrians and their Palestinian allies took full control of the Yarmouk Camp.



This marked the complete closure of the East Ghouta area pocket within the Central Syria area.


On June 19th (19/6/18) the Syrians resumed their operation to liberate the Yarmouk River Basin area.


The Syrian approach to this operation was the same as it had been in the Battle of East Ghouta and the operation to liberate the Yarmouk Camp for Palestinian refugees;

In order to minimise any loss of life prior to any fighting the armed groups were offered the chance to surrender and that offer remained on the table throughout. Under the terms of what has become the standard surrender offered by the Syrians members of any armed groups would be granted amnesty.

That meant they would not be arrested or imprisoned. They wouldn't even have to disband as a military force. However they would need to make amends for their past crimes by fighting on behalf of the Syrian government in what are termed; "Amnesty Battalions."

Groups who did not wish to join the Amnesty Battalions were instead given the option of being transferred to another part of the country. Once they had disarmed and disbanded as a fighting force.




Initially none of the groups accepted the surrender offer.

So the Syrians moved to liberate the town of Hirak. This was considered the main gateway to the Yarmouk River Basin area from the Central Syria area. Sitting as it does on high ground around 110km (65 miles) south of Damascus. Around 30km (20 miles) west of As-Suweida City and around 30km (20 miles) north-east of Daraa City.


On June 28th (28/6/18) the Syrians liberated the town of Hirak. This prompted many of the armed groups to take the Syrians up on their offer of surrender.

On June 30th (30/6/18) the Southern Front coalition in Ibtaa, Um Walad and Eastern Karak, Dael, Western Ghariya, Eastern Ghariya, Talul Khlayf and Tal Sheikh Hussein surrendered and opted to join the Amnesty Battalions.

On July 6th (6/7/18) Army of Conquest and Southern Front fighters agreed to surrender the towns of Kahil, al-Sahwa, al-Jiza and al-Misaifra.

On July 15th (15/7/18) Army of Conquest and Southern Front fighters agreed to surrender Daraa City.

On July 31st (31/7/18) ISIL's Army of Khalid Ibn al-Walid agreed to surrender all their positions and be transferred to the small pocket around the Bobby Sands base close to al-Tanf.

On August 2nd (2/8/18) total Syrian victory declared in the Yarmouk River Basin. The UNDOF has since returned to the Golan Heights.

As I mentioned in yesterday's post much of August and September 2018 were taken up with talk of a looming Syrian operation to liberate the Sudetenland area. Or more accurately vocal and hostile opposition to such an operation by the NATO nations and sadly official bodies of the UN.

This was driven in no small part by rumours circulated the Army of Conquest and the Syrians themselves that Syria would be launching an operation on September 10th (10/9/18).

Syria did indeed launch an operation on September 10th (10/9/18). However it was not launched against the Army of Conquest in the Sudetenland. Instead it was launched against the remaining ISIL presence in the Central Syria area.

The majority of the Central Syria area is made up of the Syrian Desert or Badiya al-Sham. This is the World's ninth largest desert and strictly speaking covers an area of 500,000kmsq (200,000 milesq) covering almost all of Syria along with parts of Jordan, Iraq and Saudi Arabia.

The area in the South-East of Syria along the borders with Jordan and Iraq is really where the desert is at its most extreme. Within the roughly 60,000kmsq (36,000 milesq) area between Damascus, Palmyra, Al-Boukamal/Abu Kamal and Syria's south-eastern border there is almost nothing except for sand dunes and gravel.

Within this area ISIL don't control any population centres, roads or any other strategic locations. They don't even really operate bases. What they do though is operate a number of small, mobile camps.

This actually makes them extremely difficult to locate. When they are located those ISIL camps are identified only by their GPS coordinates. For the small window of time before they are either destroyed or move.

The exception is the Ruqban Camp for Internally Displaced People (IDP's). Control of this is shared between ISIL and Maghawir al-Thawra. The Islamist group trained and supported by the US.

The Ruqban Camp sits firmly within the deconfliction zone around America's Bobby Sands base. So if the Syrians were to move to expel ISIL from the camp it would put them in direct conflict with the US.

In fact on September 7th (7/9/18) deployed a company sized Quick Reaction Force (QRF) to conduct a live fire exercise at the Bobby Sands base. Specifically to deter Syria from liberating the Ruqban IDP camp from ISIL. A highly unusual use for a QRF of that size.

Due to the nature of the landscape and the enemy this stretch of the Syrian Desert is an area that needs almost constant sweeping. As a result there have been sporadic hit & run type clashes between the Syrians and ISIL ever since the summer of 2017.

On September 10th (10/9/18) though the Syrians launched a big sweeping operation. This was conducted on two axis. One sweeping west across Deir-ez-Zour Province and one sweeping east across Homs Province.

By September 11th (11/9/18) the Syrians had swept through around 30km (18 miles) clearing the villages of Nariyah and Rashwani. These sit close to Tar as Sarayim hill. Around 70km (40 miles) south-west of as-Suknah.

By September 13th (13/9/18) the Syrians had swept through another roughly 40km (25 miles) to clear the village of Bir al-Hajjah. In the process the Syrians cleared the surrounding Salhub valley. This sits around 55km (30 miles) south-east of as-Suknah.

On September 19th (19/9/18) the two Syrian axis united at Bir al-Hijjah. They also eliminated an ISIL cell which held be holed up on Abtar Mountain just to the south of Palmyra.

At around 17:10 on 12/10/18 (UK date) I'm going to have to pick this up and try and sort out the formatting at a later date.

Operation Featherweight: Month 52, Week 1, Day 6.

The conflict in Syria can now be divided into five main areas;

Shangri-La, Garvaghy Road, Afrin Canton, the Sudetenland and Central Syria.

The Sudetenland:

Spread across four of Syria's provinces this roughly 5,000kmsq (3,000milesq) area is located in the north-west of the country. Centred around Idlib City it contains more than 30 cities, towns or other major population centres.

It's name refers to Nazi Germany's annexation of Czechoslovakia's Sudetenland in 1938. Under the guise of a humanitarian intervention.   

The Sudetenland is currently under the occupation of the Army of Conquest/Jaish al-Fatah (JAF) coalition.

The largest faction, particularly in the Sudetenland, is Al Qaeda/The Base. Their affiliate within Syria is known as Jabhat al-Nusra/The Support Front. 

Al Qaeda are of course the group who conducted the World's largest ever terrorist attack, striking multiple targets across the US on September 11th 2001 (11/9/01). In retaliation the US, with full support of NATO invaded Afghanistan. A war which is still going on 17 years later.

Alongside The Support Front the Sudetenland has also become home to the Turkistan Islamist Party (TiP). Rather than being a Syrian affiliate they are original 9/11-era Al Qaeda. 

Ethnically Turkish their focus is creating an Islamic State in the area they consider Turkistan. This is made up of China's Xinjiang Province and the nations of Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan.

The second sizable faction with the Army of Conquest are the Army of Islam/Jaish al-Islam (JAI). They are a particularly vicious group who consider the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) to be far too moderate and have executed members of ISIL accordingly.

The Army of Islam committed genocide against Syria's Druze population in the Golan Heights area in 2015. They also attempted to commit a further genocide against the Druze in the Golan Heights in 2017 but were stopped. 

While occupying east Aleppo City the Army of Islam routinely used Chemical Weapons against the Combined Joint Task Force: Operation Inherent Resolve (CJTFOIR) backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF/QSD). Something the Army of Islam have openly admitted to.

The Army of Islam presence in the Sudetenland has increased significantly following their retreat their after the liberation of East Ghouta. While occupying East Ghouta the Army of Islam placed civilians in cages and put them on roof tops to act as human shields against airstrikes.

The third sizable faction within the Army of Conquest are the Army of Glory/Jaish al-Izza (AoG). They were part of the US' Train & Equip program under former President Obama. This saw them receive anti-tank weapons such as the 9K11 Fagot and the BGM-71 TOW. Along with Man Portable Air Defence (MANPAD) systems such as the 9K38 Iglas and the Mistral.

The fourth sizable faction within the Army of Conquest are the Movement of Nour al-Din al-Zinki/Harakat Nour al-Din al-Zinki (Nour al-Zinki). As with the Army of Glory they were part of the US' Train & Equip program under former President Obama. Receiving anti-tank weapons such as the BGM-71 TOW.

Nour al-Zinki retreated to the Sudetenland following the liberation of the eastern side of Aleppo City. There they were famous for beheading children, executing homosexuals by throwing them from tall buildings and kidnapping journalists for sale to ISIL.

The fifth sizable faction within the Army of Conquest are the Movement of the Freemen of the Levant/Harakat Ahrar ar-Sham al-Islamiyya (Ahrar al-Sham). However their influence in the Sudetenland has decreased as the Army of Islam's has increased.

The sixth sizable faction with the Army of Conquest is the United Turkmen Army (UTA).  

The UTA are formed out of the paramilitary wing of the Turkish Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) who are known as the Grey Wolves. Taking their brigade names from famous Ottoman Emperors such as Sultan Mehmed the Conqueror the UTA are also sometimes known as the Syrian Turkmen Brigades (STB).

As they have done in Garvaghy Road and Afrin Canton the UTA have absorbed fragments of the long defunct Free Syrian Army (FSA) such as the 1st Coastal Division into their ranks. Those FSA fragments now function as brigades of the UTA.

There is also a small Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) presence in the Sudetenland under the formal protection of the Army of Conquest.  

The entire area is ringed and protected by a network of small bases or "Control Points" operated by the regular Turkish Military (TSK). Who continue to illegally occupy this and other large parts of Syria.

In December 2016 Russia, Turkey and Iran formed the Astana Process on Syria. 

The first round of meetings the Astana Process were originally scheduled for December 27th 2016 (27/12/16). This would not have worked for me as I was visiting the UK city of Salisbury at the time. However following the assassination of the Russian Ambassador to Turkey in Turkey the meetings were brought forward to December 20th (20/12/16).

That first round of meetings in the Astana Process led to the creation of the Astana Ceasefire. This saw the suspension of fighting by all armed groups within Syria. With the exceptions of Al Qaeda, ISIL and at Turkey's demand the SDF.

This created a problem for the Army of Conquest and their occupation of the Sudetenland in particular.  The eternal question was whether the ceasefire excluded just Al Qaeda or all the groups allied with Al Qaeda as part of the Army of Conquest.

This led to a long process of giving the impression that Al Qaeda is not a member of the Army of Conquest.

One part of this process has involved Al Qaeda in Syria changing their name from; "The Support Front/Jabhat al-Nusra to; "The Organisation for the Liberation of the Levant/Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS)."

The second part of the process has involved the other elements of the Army of Conquest referring to themselves as; "The Front for the Liberation of Syria/Jabhat Tahrir al-Suriya (JTS)."


Obviously the difference between HTS and JTS was not clear enough to convince anyone. 

So on August 1st (1/8/18) the JTS element of the Army of Conquest announced they would be referring to themselves as; "The National Liberation Front/Jabhat Tahrir al-Watania (JTW). This is widely seen as a precursor to them being formally absorbed into the UTA.

The third part of the process has been the creation of the group calling themselves the Guardians of Religion Organisation/Tanzim Hurras ad-Din. They claim to be the new Syrian affiliate of Al Qaeda having split from HTS. The intention being to give the false impression that HTS are no longer Al Qaeda.

Despite a social media presence Tanzim Hurras ad-Din do not appear to exist at all.
  
Likewise the division between Al Qaeda and the wider Army of Conquest exists only on paper.

In October 2017 Al Qaeda and the JTS element of the Army of Conquest forgot that they supposed to be convincing everyone they were separate groups. They launched a joint offensive alongside ISIL against the Syrians. By March 2018 this saw them lose control of the entire al-Hass Plateau which until then had made up the eastern boundary of the Sudetenland.

In mid-March 2018 Al Qaeda and the JTS element of the Army of Conquest again forgot that they supposed to be convincing everyone they were separate groups. They launched the combined; "Wrath of Ghouta" offensive in a effort to continue their occupation of East Ghouta by dividing Syria's forces. That offensive was repelled in the space of about a day.

Much of August and late September 2018 has been taken up by talk of a looming Syrian offensive to liberate the Sudetenland. Although many of the people warning of the dangers of such an operation seemed to be under the impression that the Sudetenland was made up of just Idlib City.

On September 17th (17/9/18) Russia and Turkey announced a plan to establish a Demilitarised Zone (DMZ) around the borders of the Sudetenland.

It now seems that this DMZ will extend 15-20km (9-12 miles) into the Sudetenland. Rather than say 10km (6 miles) either side of the line of conflict between Syrian forces and the Army of Conquest. Or along the lines of the Astana Zone which would have seen the Syrians hand much of the Hass Plateau back to the Army of Conquest.

By October 15th (15/10/18) all; "Radical Terror Groups" which I assume means the HTS element of the Army of Conquest are to withdraw entirely from the DMZ. That would imply that the TiP would have to surrender control of Jisr al-Shugour - one of the major population centres in the Sudetenland.

Also by October 15th (15/10/18) all; "Tanks, Multiple Launch Rocket Systems (MLRS) and mortars belonging to all conflicting parties" are to be withdrawn from the DMZ. I assume that means the JTS element of the Army of Conquest will have to withdraw all of their heavy weapons from the DMZ.

By the end of 2018 all elements of the Army of Conquest will have to hand control of the M4 and M5 highways back to the Syrian government.

Although this plan was announced on September 17th (17/9/18) details did not start to emerge until September 21st (21/9/18).

Frustratingly for me I returned from another trip to the UK city of Salisbury on September 21st (21/9/18) and immediately fell ill. I say; "ill" it was just a common cold. However as common colds go it was pretty nasty. 

That bout of illness took me almost all the way through the High Level Segment of the Opening of the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA). For someone like me that is absolutely the last week of the year you want to be out sick.

As a result I've still not been able to fully catch up and properly consider the implications of the Sudetenland DMZ agreement.

I though am not the only one struggling with the task. The HTS element of the Army of Conquest have yet to establish a formal position on the plan. Despite having held numerous meetings on the matter.

What is clear though is Turkey and Russia's respective reasons for launching the plan.

Turkey was motivated by a desire to maintain the Army of Conquest occupation of the Sudetenland for as long as possible. Their President/Prime Minister/Emperor Recep Tayyip Erdogan has long harboured a desire to annex the area as part of his new Ottoman Empire.

Russia though was motivated by fear.

The talk of a looming Syrian operation to liberate the Sudetenland was met with open hostility by the NATO nations and, to its shame, official bodies of the United Nations.

For example on August 22nd (22/8/18) the US, the UK and France issued a joint statement. In it they expressed a strong desire to attack Syria on behalf of the Army of Conquest. However they made clear that they would need a pretext - such as a claimed Chemical Weapons attack - to justify such an action.

With Turkish support the Army of Conquest immediately started preparing such a Chemical Weapons attack.

On September 7th (7/9/18) the US convened a meeting of the UN Security Council (UNSC). To allow the NATO nations to re-express their strong desire to attack Syria on behalf of the Army of Conquest. 

On September 11th (11/9/18) the UN Special Envoy on Syria Staffan de Mistura shamefully held meetings with the Army of Conquest in Geneva. In a clear show of partisan support which is wholly unbecoming of a UN Special Envoy.

Also on that day Russia convened another UNSC meeting. The significance of that date in New York City didn't stop the NATO nations from re-expressing their strong desire to attack Syria on behalf of the Army of Conquest. 

Those words were backed up by a serious military build up. The US positioned three warships including the USS Ross in the Mediterranean Sea, just off the coast of Syria. France also deployed its Aquitaine FREMM frigate.

The main weapon of all four of these warships is their ability to launch Cruise missiles. Such as happened on April 14th 2018 (14/4/18) when US, British and French ships, including the Aquitaine conducted strikes against Syria in support of the Army of Conquest.

Those April 14th (14/4/18) strikes were carried out under the pretext of punishing Syria for a Chemical Weapons attack in East Ghouta on April 7th (7/4/18). 

We are still awaiting the full report from the Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW). However the result of their preliminary investigation is that this Chemical Weapons attack simply did not happen. 

This sudden burst of hostility towards Russia is of course not happening in isolation.

In the US you have the Democrats' attempts to delegitimise the electoral process by claiming Russia rigged the 2016 Presidential Election. This had led to the seemingly never ending investigation by Special Prosecutor Robert Mueller.

This has led to US President Donald Trump to attempt to dispel those myths by being seen to take an increasingly tough line against Russia. Even when that runs clearly against US national interests.

You also have the little boys of the Britain's governing Conservative Party ramping up the rhetoric over the poisoning with Chemical Weapons of Sergei Skripal. In the UK city of Salisbury.

That all creates a legitimate fear that the NATO nations will do something stupid. 

Such as using an attack on one of the Turkish Control Points in the Sudetenland as excuse to invoke NATO's Article 5 against Russia. Leading to that Third World War we've all spent 70 years trying to avoid.

It must be said though that NATO's Article 5 is a self-defence clause. It most certainly shouldn't apply why you are attacked whilst illegally hundreds of kilometres in someone else's country.

Ironically Russia's fears materialised just hours after the announcement of the Sudetenland DMZ. A Russian Il-20 surveillance aircraft was shot down by Syrian air defences resulting in the loss of 15 Russian lives.

The frenzy of late August, early September was driven by rumours, circulated by the Syrians, that they would launch a big offensive on September 10th (10/9/18).

On September 10th (10/9/18) the Syrians did indeed launch a big offensive. 

However not against the Army of Conquest and not in the Sudetenland. They launched their big offensive against ISIL in two locations in the Central Syria area.

19:00 on 11/10/18 (UK date).

 

Operation Featherweight: Month 52, Week 1, Day 4.

The conflict in Syria can now be divided into five main areas;

Shangri-La, Garvaghy Road, Afrin Canton, the Sudetenland and Central Syria.

Shangri-La:

This is  under the control of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF/QSD).

The largest element of the SDF coalition is the Syrian Kurdish People's Protection Units (YPG). They operate alongside Assyrian/Syriac Christian, Turkmen and Arab Muslim forces.

The Arab element which makes up around 50% of the SDF is comprised of both elements of the long defunct Free Syrian Army (FSA) and local tribes indigenous to north-eastern Syria.

The SDF also contains a small International Brigade made up of foreign volunteers. They are supposedly supported by the US-led coalition; Combined Joint Task Force: Operation Inherent Resolve (CJTFOIR) both with air power and Special Operations Forces (SOF's).

Shangri-La is located in the north-east of Syria. It is essentially everything to the north-east of the Euphrates River.

The exception is a group of 10 towns stretching across roughly 35km (20 mile) along the north bank of the Euphrates. Known as the; "Hajin Pocket" this area remains under the control of the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL).

On May 1st (1/5/18) the SDF launched a new anti-ISIL operation within Shangri-La codenamed; "Operation: Round Up."

This operation began with two concurrent phases.

The first phase focused on the roughly 35km (20 mile) area on the north bank of the Euphrates still under ISIL control. This stretches from the town of Hajin in the north down to Baghuz Tahtani in the south, where the Euphrates enters Iraq from Syria.

Its objective was to isolate these remaining towns. Both from each other and from the Syria/Iraq border.

This was achieved by the SDF reaching the banks of the Euphrates to the south-east of Hajin and just to the north-east of Abu Hassan on May 4th (4/5/18). Hajin sits around 35km (20 miles) north-west of the Syria/Iraq border while Abu Hassan sits around 8km (5 miles) south-east of Hajin.

At the same time the SDF advanced on the towns of Baghuz Tahtani and Baghuz Fawqani. These sit adjacent to each other stretching around 6km (3 miles) north-west of the Iraq/Syria border. By May 14th (14/5/18) the SDF had liberated Baghuz Tahtani and surrounded Baghuz Fawqani.

The second phase of Round Up which was launched at the same time focused on clearing ISIL from desert areas to the north of the Euphrates River.

Essentially a collection of towns, villages and farms known as the Wadi ash-Shawkh Agricultural Area. Located on the Syria/Iraq border around 240km (145 miles) north of Baghuz Tahtani on the Euphrates River.

On August 7th (7/8/18) the SDF forces who had conducted phase two of Round Up arrived at the al-Omar Oil & Gas Field linking up with the SDF forces who had conducted phase one of Round Up. As a result both of the opening phases of Round Up were declared to be at an end.

Over the night of September 10th (10/9/18) into September 11th (11/9/18) the SDF launched the third phase of Operation: Round Up. This is focused on liberating those 10 remaining towns on the north bank of the Euphrates from ISIL.

These towns are all relatively small and sparsely populated.

The largest, Hajin, is only 12kmsq (7 milesq) in area containing just five main roads. It is roughly twice the size of the just the Old City district of ISIL's former de facto capital Raqqa City.

Therefore the challenge is not really the urban areas themselves but the layers of defences ISIL have built up around them.

These are made up of dug in fighting positions, trenches and tunnel networks. They are interwoven with large numbers of Improvised Explosive Devices (IED's) and landmines.

This third phase of Operation Round Up is being conducted on three axis;

The north-western axis is focused on Hajin.

The south-western axis is focused on Baghuz Fawqani.

The third axis is a northern one focused on the town of Sousse/As-Susah. This is located around 8km (5 miles) north-west of Baghuz Fawqani and around 12km (7 miles) south-east of Hajin.
 
Hajin is believed to be ISIL's current de facto capital. As a result the fighting on the north-western Hajin axis has been the heaviest and slowest moving.

For example on October 4th (4/10/18) the SDF advanced just 300 metres/yards on the Hajin axis. However in the course of those 300 metres/yards they liberated 6 ISIL fighting positions.

On October 5th (5/10/18) the SDF didn't advance any notable distance at all. They did though liberate a further 6 ISIL fighting positions.

Over the course of the 29 days of operations on the north-western the SDF have advanced a little over 12km (7 miles) towards Hajin.

Within that distance the SDF have liberated nearly 70 ISIL fighting positions including two complex trench networks. One around 3km (1.8 miles) in length.

Amid fierce fighting the SDF now seem to be pushing up against ISIL's main layer of defences around Hajin.

The northern Sousse axis has seen similarly slow progress. For the first five days of operations - September 11th (11/9/18) to September 15th (15/9/18) it seemed to be serving as a diversion for the other two axis.

However on September 16th (16/9/18) the SDF managed to advance 2km (1.2 miles) on the Sousse axis. Liberating 11 ISIL fighting positions. On September 23rd (23/9/18) the SDF advanced 1km (0.6 milesq) on the axis. Liberating 4 ISIL fighting positions in the process.

The SDF's main progress has been made on the south-eastern Baghuz Fawqani axis.

On September 14th (14/9/18) the SDF reached ISIL's main defensive ring around Baghuz Fawqani. By September 16th (16/9/18) the SDF had broken through that main defensive layer.

On September 20th (20/9/18) the SDF completely liberated Baghuz Fawqani.

Directly to the north of Baghuz Fawqani you have the town of al-Shalja. Directly to the north of al-Shalja you have Sousse.

So on September 24th (24/9/18) both the SDF's south-western Baghuz Fawqani axis and the SDF's northern Sousse axis both turned their attention to al-Shalja. The Sousse axis advanced to the west of the town while the Baghuz Fawqani axis advanced to the east of al-Shalja.

Almost without a fight al-Shalja was liberated from ISIL on September 25th (25/9/18).

This saw the SDF's south-eastern Baghuz Fawqani axis and the SDF's northern Sousse axis merge and effectively become one single axis.

Having liberated al-Shalja the SDF spent the next few days consolidating their control over the town. Establishing their own fighting positions and clearing leftover IED's and landmines.

Directly to the west of al-Shalja you have the town of as-Safafinah. To the west of as-Safafinah you have the town of al-Marashidah.

On September 28th (28/9/18) the SDF's now combined south-western axis began to advance out of al-Shalja. In the direction of Safafinah and Marashidah. On that day they advanced around 1km (0.6 miles) liberating 6 ISIL fighting positions.

On September 29th (29/9/18) the SDF advanced a further 1km (0.6 miles) liberating 10 ISIL fighting positions. On October 2nd (2/10/18) the SDF entered Safafinah itself. By advancing around 1km (0.6 miles) and liberating 8 ISIL fighting positions.

Having entered Safafinah the SDF have been forced to absorb heavy ISIL counter attacks rather than make progress of their own. On Sunday (7/10/18) though the SDF were able to advance around 1.5km (0.9 miles) within the town. Liberating 15 ISIL fighting positions and defusing 5 landmines in the process.

Also on Sunday (7/10/18) the SDF entered Marashidah.

The SDF's focus on Shalja, Safafinah and Marashidah does seem to have temporarily relieved some of the pressure on ISIL around Sousse. On September 29th (29/9/18) ISIL were able to recapture Mozan. This is a small area of canals directly to the south-east of Sousse.

As ISIL were recapturing Mozan the SDF were putting them under sustained pressure in three other towns. Pressure that in Shalja ISIL were certainly not able to withstand. Therefore the SDF's decision to let ISIL recapture Mozan seems to have been a tactical one. The SDF were quickly able to re-liberate Mozan on October 5th (5/10/18).

The SDF and CJTFOIR are not the only ones who have been conducting military action against ISIL in this Hajin pocket.

On September 30th (30/9/18) Iran launched six Qaim ballistic missiles from its Kermanshah Province. Two failed to launch but four struck Hajin after flying over Iraq.

This Iranian strike was retaliation against ISIL for a terror attack against an Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corp (IRGC) parade on September 22nd (22/9/18) which killed 20. That attack has since been credibly claimed by ISIL. Although that hardly contradicts Iran's initial claim that it had been carried out by ISIL's traditional sponsors.

CJTFOIR in particular were vocally opposed to this strike claiming that it endangered their forces in the area. In reality though most of the anger stemmed from the fact the strike contradicts, particularly the US' oft-repeated claim that Syria, Iran and Russia are not fighting ISIL.

It must also be said that if you're looking for a target to carry out a symbolic strike against ISIL you're fast running out of places to choose from.

Away from the battle lines of the Hajin pocket the SDF still face some reduced ISIL attacks behind the lines across Shangri-La. For example on ISIL blew up an oil well head near Shadaddi on September 25th (25/9/18). That though was quickly dealt with by SDF arrests in Tayib al-Fal and Suwayyan.

Probably the greater threat to security across Shangri-La is posed by The Eruption Movement/Harakat al-Qiyam (HAQ). A former fragment of the FSA who were transferred to Shangri-La they now operate as a front for the Turkish National Intelligence Agency (MIT).

On September 21st (21/9/10) HAQ used a roadside bomb to ambush an SDF vehicle patrol in Raqqa City. Killing two SDF fighters. HAQ are also believed to be responsible for killing an SDF fighter who was found dead in Raqqa City on the same day.

On September 22nd (22/9/18) HAQ again used a roadside bomb to ambush an SDF vehicle patrol. This time in the Madan district of Gharanji. On September 25th (25/9/19) a HAQ IED killed two SDF fighters in Shadaddi.

HAQ conducted two bombings on September 29th (29/9/18). One in Markadah and one in Mafra district. These bombings were conducted while the political arm of the SDF - the Syrian Democratic Council (SDC) - was meeting with the Jabbour Tribe to discuss service provision and security. The bombings killed two civilians.

On October 4th (4/10/18) a HAQ IED in Manbij killed two members of the SDF and wounded two others. Manbij is the hotly contested town that sits on the boundary between Shangri-La on the east and Turkish occupied Garvaghy Road to the west.

HAQ are also believed to be behind protests against the SDF and SDC. Such as those seen in Beit Uqaydat, Beit Bayrah, Jinyah, Hissam and Suwayyan on September 27th (27/9/18) against poor service provision and heavy handed policing by the SDF.

The SDF's response to the security challenges of both HAQ and ISIL in Shangri-La has been twofold.

They have conducted security operations. Such as on September 30th (30/9/18) when the SDF's Anti-Terrorism Unit (YAT) disrupted an ISIL cell in the Basil neighbourhood of Raqqa City. Killing two ISIL members and capturing five others alongside seizing guns, grenades and explosive.

Perhaps more importantly the SDF/SDC have been reaching out to local residents and tribal leaders. Such as the September 29th (29/9/18) meeting with the Jabbour Tribe.

In these meetings the SDF/SDC are trying to listen to their concerns and offer solutions. Such as repairing Taqba's water and irrigation system or reopening the Kobash cotton market to local farmers.

The US' response to HAQ's attacks has been more peculiar though. It has been to reward them.

On October 2nd (2/10/18) US troops started joint training with Turkish troops. This is the latest phase of a roadmap which has seen US and Turkish troops conduct joint but separate patrols around Manbij and will eventually seem joint patrols.

Turkish President/Prime Minister/Emperor Recep Tayyip Erdogan believes that those joint patrols will see Turkey occupy Manbij and eventually all of Shangri-La.

18:20 on 9/10/18 (UK date).

It's Time to Say Goodbye. She'll be Gone in a Minute.

September 25th (25/9/18) saw the start of the week-long High Level Segment of the annual opening on the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA).

This affords High Level representatives - Heads of Government/State (HOGS) etc - of all members of the UN to address an audience made up of their peers from other member states and permanent representatives to the UN of those member states.

It is something of a tradition that at least one of these addresses will be utterly bizarre and unbelievable. So bizarre and unbelievable that the people watching can't help but laugh.

Previous standouts from this so-called; "Comedy Slot" include;

Fidel Castro of Cuba in 1960. His speech went on for four hours and twenty nine minutes. Significantly longer that the 10 minutes that had been allotted.

Hugo Chavez of Venezuela in 2006. Taking to the podium shortly after US President George W. Bush he complained that you could still smell the Sulphur in the room. Using Christian imagery to declare that George W. Bush was Satan and he had just emerged from Hell.

Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel in 2012. His speech focused on Iran's nuclear program. To highlight Iran's progress towards nuclear weapons brought with him a diagram of a bomb. This diagram of a bomb was exactly the sort of; "Acme Corp" bomb used in children's cartoons such as Bugs Bunny.

Since then Netanyahu seems to have decided to steer into the skid by trying to make the UNGA comedy slot his own.

In war and less violent forms of political activism there is something known as; "Agitation Propaganda" or; "Agit-Prop." This is type of propaganda used mobilise supporters against an adversary.

Benjamin Netanyahu seems to have taken this term literally. Frequently bringing actual stage-props to speeches where he tries to agitate against an enemy - normally Iran.

Immediately following the Opening Ceremony of the 2018 Winter Olympics a drone was shot down over Israel having crossed in from Syria.

Shortly after at the 2018 Munich Security Conference Netanyahu gave a speech condemning the Iranian aggression. He'd brought with him a part of the drone and proceeded to wave that dirty great lump of metal over his head as he spoke.

At the UNGA this year Britain was represented by its Head of Government - Prime Minister Theresa May.

The majority of Prime Minister May's speech was an attempt to agitate against Russia. Repeatedly accusing them of using Chemical Weapons to poison the Skripals et al back in March 2018.

Britain however spent the week working to undermine Prime Minister May's speech by exposing how bizarre and unbelievable it was. Presumably so she took home the Comedy Slot award.

On September 26th (26/9/18) the British Daily Telegraph newspaper promoted claims that the identity of one of the Russians - Ruslan Boshirov - is an alias. It was further alleged that Boshirov was in fact Anatoliy Chepiga - a former member of Russian special forces and a serving Colonel in the GRU, Russia's foreign intelligence agency.

The Daily Telegraph is widely recognised as the brain of the British Establishment. If you've ever read the newspaper you would know what a strange and frightening place that can be. The claims it was promoting were made by the website Bellingcat.

Bellingcat is simply the blog of a 39 year old British man by the name of Eliot Higgins. 

Proclaiming his blog to be; "The Home of Online Investigations" Higgins is one of those "Walter Mitty/Billy Liar" types you often find on the fringes of the intelligence community. And sadly sometimes within the British intelligence services.

In 2012 Higgins was fired from a low level position in the local civil service. 

He started blogging under the name; "Brown Moses" on the conflict in Syria. With a specific, personal mission to uncover evidence of Russian crimes. In 2014 under the name Bellingcat he switched his focus to blogging on the burgeoning conflict in Ukraine. Again with the specific, personal mission of uncovering evidence of Russian crimes.

I suppose you could liken me and this blog to Eliot Higgins and Bellingcat. I though think there are some key differences;

It really shouldn't surprise you that in order to keep track of the conflict in Syria and Iraq I take extensive notes. My budget is now so distressed that I genuinely worry about being able to afford the GB£3 to buy a new notebook or the GB£5 needed to by an ink refill. If those two expenses were to occur in the same month I would probably have to work it out with a pencil.

With the help of mystery benefactors Eliot Higgins has registered Bellingcat as a Private Limited Company in the UK and is paying himself a handsome salary. The type of thing that makes him a prime target for the Unexplained Wealth Orders (UWO's) Prime Minister May's government have been pushing aggressively in the wake of the Skripal poisoning.

Judging by the amount of spam I receive from the British government suggesting I should start my own business I suspect they would like me to follow Bellingcat's example. However due to things like UWO's that would require a significant change in the longstanding hostility Britain has shown to me.

Recently I've been talking about the Kavanaugh hearings in the US as issues I can cover with very little effort. 

That's because in the past I have trained as a mental health professional and done voluntarily work in projects rehabilitating people with serious mental health problems. However just before I could receive my formal qualification the certification body suddenly and mysteriously collapsed.

With that route closed I trained in book keeping and accountancy. However again just before I could receive my formal qualification the certification body suddenly and mysteriously collapsed. The fact my younger brother is considered the golden boy of the family because he's started working for Price Waterhouse Coopers does wear thin at times.

That is I think the second significant difference between Higgins and myself. I've earned by credibility over a period of some 17 years. 

The rather strange claims I sometimes make about my grandfather being a bodyguard at the signing of the Japanese surrender in World War Two or my father just happening to be in Beijing, China on the day the Vietnam War ended have been checked. Even the people who don't like me have been forced to accept that they are true.

The third significant difference is that I have always focused on the Middle-East and Africa regions. I've been involved in the Syria conflict since the start in 2011 and have remained with the conflict in Syria and Iraq every day since 2014.

Higgins started in Syria in 2012 and then switched his focus to Ukraine in 2014. That suggests to me that he is not interested in the truth of what is happening in those conflicts. Instead he is motivated by a dislike or even hatred of Russia. An idea that is reinforced by the fact he is now focused on the Skripal case.

Bellingcat's work on Ukraine has been a longrunning source of controversy which was recently reignited.

In November 2014 Bellingcat claimed to have uncovered "evidence" that Russian backed rebels were responsible for the shooting down of Malaysia Airlines flight MH17.

This claim was based almost exclusively on photo-analysis. Having not switched my focus I can't remember all of the specific flaws with Bellingcat's claims but they were significantly lacking in credibility.

For example Bellingcat claimed that Russia had doctored satellite data to remove images of the BUK missile being fired. As evidence he cited the fact the images used in Russia's presentation were in the Photoshop format.

Actual experts in forensic analysis quickly pointed out that in order to use images in a presentation you would have to convert them into the Photoshop format. The general consensus was that Bellingcat's claim was meaningless.

Bellingcat also claimed to show the BUK launcher travelling in convoy with three other vehicles.

Anyone looking at the pictures Bellingcat presented could clearly see that the BUK launcher is travelling in one direction on one side of the road. Far from travelling in convoy with it the three other vehicles are travelling in the opposite direction on the other side of the road.

In October 2015 the Dutch Safety Board released its investigation into the MH17 case. Despite ruling out an elaborate UFO conspiracy it did not include Bellingcat's claims considering them to be too incredible to comment on. As such it did not apportion blame to either Russia or Russian backed Ukrainian rebels.

The Dutch position changed dramatically in May 2018. They allowed the Joint Investigation Mechanism (JIM) to apportion blame to Russian backed Ukrainian rebels and by extension Russia. Something the US has long pressed the Netherlands to do.

To draw this conclusion the JIM relied almost exclusively on Bellingcat's claims. Which had been previously dismissed as non-credible.

At around 19:55 on 4/10/18 (UK date) I will have to tidy this up.

21:20 on 4/10/18 (UK date) and look at the reasons behind the Netherlands' sudden change or heart tomorrow.

Edited at around 13:35 on 5/10/18 (UK date) to add;

The Netherlands change on heart was particularly surprising.

In the months leading up to May they'd not been supportive of Russia as such. They had though become more vocally opposed to the bizarre anti-Russian conspiracy theories which seem to have become a normal part of political discourse.

Just before the 2018 Winter Olympics the Dutch Foreign Minister Halbe Zijlstra was forced to resign. He'd claimed that he'd attended a meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin in which Putin had announced plans to create a new Russian Empire in eastern Europe.

Zijlstra's resignation came after it emerged that he'd never attended the meeting. In fact the meeting had never taken place and Putin had certainly never made those claims.

At the 2018 Eurovision Song Contest the Netherlands were represented by Waylon with the song; "Outlaw In 'Em." This invoked the orange and blue St Andrews Cross flag adopted used by ethnically Russian rebels in Ukraine. 

It showed support for them by reminding everyone that rather than being a Russian conspiracy the conflict in Ukraine is the result of NATO nations - particularly the US under Obama - illegally backing a group of slightly ethnically different Ukrainians who want to exterminate all the ethnically Russian Ukrainians. 

On May 18th (18/5/18) the new Dutch Foreign Minister Stef Blok made their first visit to the US. This was marked by a shooting at a school in Santa Fe, Texas. That invoked memories of the Parkland shooting which occurred during the 2018 Winter Olympics.

The Parkland shooting invoked memories of the 1999 Columbine shooting. Like the Santa Fe shooting that was carried out using shotguns. At the 2018 Eurovision Song Contest Hungary's entry compared the moral panic America experienced in the wake of the Columbine shooting with the moral panic Russia experiences of homosexuality.

With all that ringing in their ears the Netherlands decided on May 24th (24/5/18) that suddenly it would allow the MH17 JIM to treat Bellingcat's three year old claims as credible.

In terms of Bellingcat's claims over the Skripal poisoning which the Daily Telegraph promoted they seem to have done an excellent job in tracking the life and career of Anatoliy Chepiga. 

However it is very clear to anyone looking at the photographs Bellingcat provided that Anatoliy Chepiga is not Ruslan Boshirov. One of the men Britain accuses of carrying out the Skripal poisoning.

Back in 2015 the type of photo-analysis used by Bellingcat produced what, I think, is a far more believable conspiracy theory. That Russian President Vladimir Putin is either a time traveller or at least 120 years old.

Going over historical photographs researchers discovered one of a Russian soldier from 1920. He probably more closely resembles Putin than Chepiga resembles Boshirov.

The researchers also discovered a photograph of a Russian airman from 1941. Again he probably more closely resembles Putin than Chepiga resembles Boshirov.

Thus using Bellingcat's reasoning all three men are Vladimir Putin. Conclusively proving that Putin is either a time traveller or at least 120 years old.

In reporting the "Putin Time Traveller" story many newspapers and websites illustrated it with the three photographs side-by-side in a little box. In promoting Bellingcat's claims the Daily Telegraph used the same format of the three photographs side-by-side in a little box.

This use of facial recognition in photographs and video images to identify suspects is actually quite a controversial issue in the UK. British police are in the process of rolling out facial recognition CCTV nationally. The problem is that the technology is, and I quote; "Staggeringly Inaccurate."

The technology was tested in South Wales where it identified 2,685 known and wanted suspects. This resulted in 234 arrests. The other 2,451 faces the system recognised were completely different people.

The technology was also tested in London. There it identified 102 known and wanted suspects. This resulted in absolutely no arrests. Every single person the system identified was wrong.

Privacy campaigners are opposed to the police's use of this technology. They are talking about challenging it in the European Court of Human Rights (ECHR). Something they will be unable to do if Britain quits the ECHR as part of Brexit but promises to still obey the rules on a voluntary basis under a; "Common Rule Book."

The point about Bellingcat's claims about the Skripal suspects is that the research was not carried out by Eliot Higgins. It was carried out by the British police as part of their Skripal investigation.

The information was given to Bellingcat by the British intelligence service. In order to expose, on a global stage, just how completely lacking in credibility the British police investigation into the Skripal poisoning actually is.

The fact Bellingcat published it without realising that suggests we won't be hearing from Eliot Higgins in 10-15 years.

While the World was fixated on the Kavanaugh hearings Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu gave his UNGA address on Thursday (27/9/18). 

Never one to disappoint he'd brought his props with him. This time it was photographs of Iranian weapon plants of the quality you would expect from Bellingcat. They were even annotated in the same style that Bellingcat uses.

Meanwhile in the British news Bellingcat's claims had given way to the Coroner's Inquest into the death of Natasha Ednan-Laperouse. A 15 year old British girl who died after suffering an allergic reaction to a Pret A Manger sandwich while aboard an Easyjet flight from Britain to France.

Initially I was quite dismissive of this case. Which no doubt would be distressing to the parents.

The thing is that this is what UK Coroner Courts do day-in-day-out. It is extremely rare for their work to make the national news. Let alone lead it for several days. Suggesting the story was being pushed by someone behind-the-scenes for some reason.

There's quite a lot of inference you can draw from the Pret A Manger element of the story.

For example the company is part of a group of coffee shop/fast food outlet which includes the likes of McDonald's and Starbucks. These companies are often described as tax evasion enterprises that occasionally serve food.

Pret A Manger's business model relies heavily on employing young, temporary migrants from the EU. Post Brexit it and other companies in its sector have been pushing for the introduction of a so-called; "Barista Visa" to keep this flow of low paid labour flowing.

Pret A Manger and others in the sector also rely heavily on non-recyclable plastic products such as disposable coffee cups. There has been talk of introducing a so-called; "Latte Levy" tax on these products. As Britain tries to position itself as a World leader in fighting plastic pollution.

There's also quite a lot you can infer from the Easyjet element of the story. Such as whether UK airlines will be able to operate in the EU post-Brexit. Or whether British people will be able to just pop over to Nice after Brexit without a visa.

Ironically the same Britons who cherish that type of weekend citybreak are the same people who can't believe that people from Europe would fly to Britain for a single weekend.

The element of the story which most relates to the Skripal case though is the focus on; "Epipens."

Epipen is a brandname for an autoinjection kit containing Epinephrine (adrenaline). Other Epinephrine autoinjection kits are available on the market.

Autoinjection kits are also used for many things other than Epinephrine. Most notably Atropine autoinjection kits featured in the Nerve Agent Antidote Kit designated by NATO forces as; "Mark 1 NAAK.

The treatment protocol for the Mark 1 NAAK is that is must be administered within 2 minutes of a person displaying symptoms of nerve agent poisoning. Or within 15 minutes of exposure to nerve agents even if no symptoms are shown.

The UK claims that Petrov and Boshirov applied Novichok nerve agent to the Skripal's door handle between 12:00 and 13:00 on March 4th (4/3/18). The Skripals exact movements are not known. However it seems they were in the house at the time meaning they were exposed to the nerve agent no later than 13:25.

The Skripals then travelled into town. Had lunch and went for drinks before being taken ill at 16:15. Some three hours after supposedly being exposed to this fresh dose of nerve agent.

Transdermal or through the skin is the slowest absorption route for nerve agents. Rather than inhaled through the lungs or absorbed through the fluid in the eyes. The exact dose is also a factor.

However you have to agree that there is a significant difference between 15 minutes and 3 hours. So Britain's claim that the Skripals were poisoned no later than 13:25 is significantly lacking in credibility.

The delay in the nerve agent taken effect could be explained by it being applied to the door handle on Saturday (3/3/18) evening and then being degraded by the weather overnight. This is what British police initially claimed had happened.

However the police investigation went onto discover that Petrov and Boshirov left the Salisbury at 16:05 on March 3rd (3/3/18). Giving them an alibi. 

So the police simply changed the time the crime took place so it would fit with their suspects movements. Even though their new theory is scientifically impossible.

This past week has seen the Conservative Party Conference. With lots of media excitement about the speech party leader - Prime Minister May - would give.

The week began with the parents of Natasha Ednan-Laperouse giving an interview to the BBC.

The headline quote of the interview was the father who was with the girl telephoning the mother who was not and saying;

"{You have} to say goodbye to her. She'll be dead in a minute, maybe two."



15:30 on 5/10/18 (UK date).

Even Pinocchio Would be Ashamed.

For the last few days America, and to some extent the rest of the World, have been obsessing over the so-called; "Kavanaugh Hearings."

This refers to hearings held before the US Senate Judiciary Committee. The purpose has been to decide whether to advance Judge Brett Kavanaugh to a full vote before the Senate for confirmation to the Supreme Court of the United States (SCOTUS).

These hearing actually began on September 4th (4/9/18). They were scheduled to end on September 20th (20/9/18). However on September 15th (15/9/18) the Democrats came forward with an allegation that Judge Kavanaugh had sexually assaulted a doctor Christine Blasey Ford.

This prompted a delay to the process and two extra days of hearings. On September 27th (27/9/18) and September 28th (28/9/18) to formally hear the allegation.

On Friday (28/9/18) the hearings concluded with a vote to advance the confirmation to the full Senate. Following a week long FBI investigation into; "any credible allegations."

This is as good as saying that Judge Kavanaugh will be confirmed to SCOTUS.

While she cannot remember where this claimed assault took place, which year it took place or her age at the time Dr Ford claims it occurred at a house party attended by herself, Kavanaugh and her best friend at the time, Leland Ingham Keyser.

Speaking through her lawyer Leland Ingham Keyser confirmed that she is cooperating with the FBI investigation. She also confirmed that she has never attended any house party that was attended by Judge Kavanaugh. Either with or without Dr Ford.

This past week has also seen the high-level opening of the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA). This has seen political leaders from across the globe gather at the UN Headquarters for the busiest week of politics and diplomacy of the entire year.

So particularly here in Britain there have been many far more important things for news broadcasters to cover rather than the Kavanaugh hearings.

Just before the start of the Friday (28/9/18) session Denmark experienced a massive security alert. Police shut down the Great Belt Bridge between the island of Funen and the main island of Zealand which hosts the nation's capital Copenhagen. They also closed the nation's borders with Sweden and Germany.

Denmark's security concerns about Germany were understandable.

Earlier in the day police in the German capital Berlin arrested a 21 year old irregular migrant from Syria for plotting a Chemical Weapons attack. While the Kavanaugh session was underway three people were seriously wounded in a knife attack in Ravensburg in South-West Germany.

This came the day after police in the Netherlands broke up a terror cell. On Thursday (27/9/18) they arrested seven men with links to the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) for plotting a Paris Massacre style marauding gun and explosives attack.

These events coincided with the three day visit of Turkish President/Prime Minister/Emperor Recep Tayyip Erdogan to Germany.

With its exit from the European Union (EU) looming you would think Britain would at least be interested in German Chancellor (Head of Government) Angela Merkel's standing within Europe.

Particularly as Merkel's Russian mirror, Lindsay Lohan, has been punched in the face. For trying to steal Syrian children.

The Friday (28/9/18) session of the Kavanaugh hearings also coincided with the second large Earthquake to strike Indonesia that day. This second Earthquake triggered a Tsunami which has so far killed 844 people with the death toll continuing to rise.

The only good thing I can say about those deaths is at least they were ironic.

Within US politics the Democrat Party are represented by the colour Blue. As with Micheal Brown in 2014 and Russian interference in 2016 the Democrats are trying to use the claims against Judge Kavanaugh to go to the polls and sweep them to victory in the November mid-term elections.

Something they refer to as; "The Blue Wave."

Events in Indonesia show just how destructive Blue Waves are. Amid the tragedy a genuine discussion is emerging over why the precautions nations take against Blue Waves, such as early warning systems, appear to have failed.

Having admonished everyone for expending far too much time and energy on the Kavanaugh hearings I'm now going to talk some more about the Kavanaugh hearings.

That's because many of the issues raised during the hearings are topics I can talk your ears off about. With little-to-no effort on my part. Let's just say that will this is unlikely going to be my best this is very far from the first essay I've written on these topics.

Dr Ford claims she recovered her memories of being sexually assaulted during a 2012 couple's therapy session she was attending with her husband.

This should be a big red flag that rather than being genuine these are false memories. Invented by a malingerer to avoid taking responsibility for problems within their marriage.

The specific problem Dr Ford was having with her husband was over remodelling work there were having done to their home. Dr Ford wanted an extra front door added to the house. Her husband objected. Presumably thinking it was a waste of money that would make the house look ugly.

During her Thursday (27/9/18) testimony Dr Ford confirmed that she had won the argument and the second front door was added. She expanded by mentioning that the couple now use that second front door to make extra money by renting part of the house out to employees of the tech giant Facebook.

During the Friday (28/9/18) session Facebook announced it had suffered a massive security breach.

Hackers had exploited the Facebook feature "View As" to obtain users security tokens. They then used those security tokens to gain full access to the accounts of potentially 90 million Facebook users. Accounts which contain vast amounts of the users personal information including their banking details.

In explaining this to non-nerds Facebook likened it to someone stealing or copying your house keys. They were quick to inform everyone that they have now changed the locks on the house.

If, like Dr Ford, you are facing a massively expensive defamation lawsuit the news that the people who already live in your house have changed the locks is not particularly reassuring.

Being apparently firmly held but without adequate grounds Dr Ford's belief that she was sexually assaulted is covered by the; "Thought Content" section of the Mental Status Examination (MSE/ICD-9-CM). This is used to diagnose serious mental illness.

However I should point out that the MSE contains eleven sections. Dr Ford's apparent delusion is only one part of that eleven part test. So on its own it cannot be used to diagnose serious mental illness.

When treating patients with delusions mental health professionals quickly learn not to directly challenge their firmly held but false beliefs. Otherwise you soon find yourself trying to prove that Star Wars isn't really happening in a galaxy far, far away. Or that Rihanna doesn't actually control the weather.

Instead treatment focuses on whether those false beliefs are causing the patient to endanger themselves or others. You then work to mitigate those dangers. Often by locking them up and heavily sedating them.

It seems that although false Dr Ford's beliefs are genuinely held. That means it is unlikely that she will be successfully prosecuted for making a false allegation under the criminal standard of proof beyond all reasonable doubt.

However Judge Kavanaugh or anyone else mentioned in the claim, such as Mark Judge, could well now bring a defamation lawsuit.

There it is extremely likely that Dr Ford would be found to be at fault under the civil standard or proof of on the balance of probability. Given the global spread of the defamation it is highly likely that such a ruling will totally bankrupt Dr Ford.

Therefore it seems Dr Ford's therapist has fallen very far short in their responsibility to mitigate the personal danger presented by Dr Ford's false beliefs. As such they have failed in their duty of care to Dr Ford and cannot reasonably expect to continue in the profession.

When she initially recovered her memory of sexual assault Dr Ford could not remember where it had occurred. She also could not remember when occurred except from within a window of several years. She could not even remember her age at the time.

Dr Ford still cannot remember where she believes she was sexually assaulted. However she has since been able to narrow down the timeframe.

First to a period of six to eight weeks in the summer of 1982. Having been shown a copy of Judge Kavanaugh's calender listing a part on July 1st 1982 (1/7/82) Dr Ford now seems to have narrowed the timeframe down to that specific date.

This is coaching is a classic example of memory implantation techniques being used to develop a false memories. A highly unethical practice.

The Democrats campaign against Judge Kavanaugh has been likened by some to a; "Witchhunt" or that very famous play about the Salem witchhunts; "The Crucible."

In 1990 and 1991 there was a British social worker/therapist by the name of Elizabeth "Liz" McLean. She became obsessed with the idea that within Britain there were Satanic Cults made up of actual witches who were sexually abusing children. Most notably in Rochdale and Scotland's Orkney Islands.

As part of her; "therapy" McLean used to show the "victims" images of Satanic iconography. She would then effectively not let them leave her office until the "victims" remembered seeing the images during the sex abuse rituals.

Liz McLean ended up costing her employers an awful lot of money in legal settlements. Both from the people she accused of sexual abuse and the "victims" she was supposedly protecting from sexual abuse.

In her testimony of Thursday (27/9/18) Dr Ford attempted to explain why her firmly held belief that she had been sexually assaulted was not adequately grounded by other contemporary memories.

Dr Ford attempted to do this by talking about the effects that the adrenaline has on encoding memories in the brain. The hormone adrenaline is properly known as; "Epinephrine" and the specific type present in the brain is known as; "Norepinephrine."

Dr Ford attempted to explain how she could be sure of the memory of being sexually assaulted despite the lack of grounding memories by saying;
  
"{I can be sure} The same way that I'm sure that I'm talking to you right now. It's -- just basic memory functions. And also just the level of norepinephrine and epinephrine in the brain that, sort of, as you know, encodes -- that neurotransmitter encodes memories into the hippocampus. And so, the trauma-related experience, then, is kind of locked there, whereas other details kind of drift." 

That explanation is not strictly speaking correct.

When released as part of the so-called; "Fight or Flight Response" adrenaline has significant physiological effects across the entire body.

For example it prompts the lungs to breath more frequently and deeply to increase the supply of oxygen. It prompts the heart to beat faster to increase the blood flow to increase the amount of oxygen being delivered. Particularly to the muscles so you can run faster and hit harder.

Adrenaline has the same effect on the brain. Prompting it to take in vastly more amounts of information. It also prompts the brain to prioritise the information that is essential to immediate survival. The information that is not relevant to immediate survival is simply disregarded. The hippocampus isn't locked to memory formation. It is simply busy doing other things.

This isn't something that is unique to traumatic experiences. When adrenaline is flowing as part of the fight or flight response.

Although I think it might come as news to some Democrats your nose is in the middle of your face. Right between your eyes.

That means your nose is constantly in your field of vision. However unless you are actually trying to look at your nose your brain knows this piece of information is irrelevant. So disregards it.

Despite citing a memory locking effect which is not known to exist Dr Ford claims she was in the grips of the fight or flight response long before the traumatic event. Which is why she cannot remember the location of the event.

Dr Ford also claims to be in the grips of the fight or flight response for a significant period after the event. Which is why she cannot remember the year it took place.

If that were true Dr Ford would have been unable to function during that period and would have had to have been locked up for her own safety. However none of her caregivers such as parents and caregivers seem to have noticed that she spent several years in this psychotic state.

So if you asked if how obvious it is that Dr Ford's claim to have been sexually assaulted is false.

Well, I'd have to say;

"It's as obvious as the nose on her face." 

17:00 on 1/10/18 (UK date).

Should I Stay Or Should I Go.

Last week I visited the now famous British city of Salisbury.

In news that it is unlikely to please the local tourist board upon my return I immediately felt unwell. However this was the result of a particularly nasty common cold rather than anything more sinister.

I spent last Saturday (22/9/18) and Sunday (23/9/18) literally just sleeping and eating. Monday (24/9/18) was a constant challenge to see if I had the balance to stand upright or not.

Today (27/9/18) I've recovered to a sort of nasty halfway house. My energy levels are back up but I've not yet recovered the concentration or focus to allow me to do anything productive with that energy.

That is really the only reason I've spent the day aimlessly flittering back and forth while live coverage of Kavanaugh-Ford hearing in the US has been playing on all the news channels.

What an absolute waste of time this hearing is can really be summed up by the different approaches taken by the Republican and Democrat members of the committee. All of whom have been given an allotted amount of time they can speak for.

As they're allowed to do the Republicans have pooled their time.

They have then given that time to Rachel Mitchell to ask questions on their behalf. Ms Mitchell is a career sex crimes prosecutor with extensive experience working with victims of sexual violence to help them tell their stories and to win justice.

The Democrats have decided they're going to use their time individually.

So they all get screentime showing potentials voters how passionately they will stand up to the evil, women hating Republicans. Just ahead of the November mid-term elections.

From the moment she came forward Dr Blasey Ford's claim to be a survivor of sexual assault, by Judge Kavanaugh or anyone else, has been woefully lacking in credibility.

Dr Ford claims to have vivid, searing memories of being pinned to a bed by Judge Kavanaugh and another man. However she cannot remember when this claimed attack took place, where it took place or even how many other people were present.

Democrats have tried to explain this away by saying that people suppress memories of traumatic events.

This is sometimes true. However only when the event is so traumatic it triggers a psychotic break and a fugue state.

When this occurs you have absolutely no memory of the event and often the time before and after the event. You have hours and even days of your life simply missing. As if someone had forgot to put a tape in the video recorder.

What is much more common is that people have extremely vivid and detailed memories of the events. Memories so detailed that often the sound of a particular song, a particular smell or even the way a room is painted trigger all the feelings of fear, helplessness etc that were present during the traumatic event.

*Many Democrats have suggested that Dr Ford is suffering from Post Traumatic Stress Disorder (PTSD). Along with gender fluidity this is a topic that has become hugely fashionable amongst the chattering classes in America and across the developed World.

With PTSD suffers do not usually lose cognitive memories. Essentially the mechanics of the events. Where they were, what they were doing and why. The problem is that they lose emotional memories. Essentially how those events made them feel.

The appropriate example here seems to be that of a car crash.

The person will remember when they were driving, where they were driving from, where they were driving to and why. They will also have almost HD TV quality memories of the image of other car crossing the central reservation and crashing into them. Often in hyper-real, super-slow motion.

What the person will not be able to consciously remember is the emotions they felt during that time. In a healthy mind anxiety giving way to fear and shock giving way to anger are the normal responses.

Although the person can't consciously remember those emotions they did experience them and the body remembers them. So those emotions keep getting pushed to the surface in surprising ways. Often through nightmares, constant anxiety or inexplicable outbursts of rage.

What does not happen is that you have vivid memories of part of the event but absolutely no memory of the wider event. Such as where the event took place or how you came to be in that location.

The conflicting symptoms Dr Ford is claiming point to a much more well known medical condition. Malingering.

This is when someone fakes or exaggerates symptoms of a medical condition to avoid personal responsibility. Often for something going on in their own life. Such as why their career isn't going as well as they'd hoped or why their love life is a mess.

Malingering is exacerbated by the 19th Century Freudian school of psychoanalysis. This teaches that any problem of adulthood must be the result of long forgotten childhood trauma.

Some of the therapeutic techniques Freud pioneered such as talking therapy still have some value.

However his theories of psychoanalysis have long been discredited and consigned to the medical dark ages. Back when doctors were using leeches and bleeding to treat conditions like female hysteria.

There is one obvious explanation for Dr Ford's highly unusual and selective memory of events. She's lying.

In making her accusations Dr Ford has given many media, newspaper and TV interviews about her claim. However what she has not done is make a formal criminal complaint.

When initially called to appear before the committee Dr Ford refused. I think she received five extensions and threat of subpoena before she was prepared to appear.

**Dr Ford has repeatedly claimed that she did not want to appear before the committee in order to protect her privacy. Since coming forward she has repeatedly claimed she has been threatened and started a fundraising campaign to pay for her security.

Filing a criminal complaint of a sexual offence would mean that Dr Ford's anonymity and privacy are fully and legally protected. Anyone naming her, let alone publishing her contact details could and likely would be criminally prosecuted.

This does not mean that this hearing could not have taken place. It would simply have taken place in private, behind closed doors.

Likewise it would not have prevented the media from reporting that the hearing was taking place. They would simply be prevented from naming Dr Ford the woman making the accusation.

Filing a criminal complaint would though have denied the Democrats on the committee the opportunity to mug for the cameras ahead of the mid-term elections.

So at the very least in her period of correspondence with the committee's Democrats Dr Ford has been appalling badly advised. Many would say exploited.

Filing a formal criminal complaint would leave Dr Ford open to prosecution for filing a false report. Appearing under oath in front of the committee leaves Dr Ford open to prosecution for perjury.

Conveniently the gaps in Dr Ford's memory all relate to things that could be independently corroborated.

If she could remember the other people present we could ask them if they saw anything. Likewise if she could remember the location we could check to see if Judge Kavanaugh was present at that location.

Currently Judge Kavanaugh seems to be in the impossible position of having to deny that he's ever been in a two storey building. Unlike probably the entire population of the developed World.

Dr Ford's convenient inability to remember any detail that could be independently corroborated does have one huge advantage for her.

As it is impossible to investigate let alone prove or disprove her claims it is impossible to prove that she is lying. Insulating her from a perjury conviction.

I though I have one vivid, traumatic memory of my own which may speak to Dr Ford's defence.

Seared into my mind I have an extremely vivid memory of attending a street party thrown to mark the Royal Wedding of Prince Charles and Lady Diana Spencer.

I can remember the trestle tables with Union Jack table cloths laden with food. I can remember the Union Jack bunting hanging from the streetlights. I can even remember stealing jelly and ice cream and surreptitiously eating it on someones porch.

What I can not remember is when this party took place, where it took place or any of the people who attended it.

But then I wouldn't. I hadn't been born at the time.

This phenomenon of false memory is well documented by cognitive psychology. There are of course many Americans who truly believe that they have been abducted by aliens.

The was recently quite a high profile, global debate over having False Memory Syndrome formally recognised as a psychiatric disorder. Which insurance companies are obligated to pay to treat.

One of the most famous experiments in false memory or memory implantation is the; "Lost in the Mall/Supermarket" experiment. This was first conducted by Professor Loftus at the University of Washington.

It involves two researchers working together on a group of test subjects.

Taking the role of leader or witness one researcher tells a story of the traumatic memory of being lost in a shopping mall or supermarket as child. Over the course of the next few days the test subjects are instructed to discuss the story and write it down in an effort to remember as much as possible.

What they do not know is that the second researcher is hiding amongst them.

That researchers job is to inject specific details which were not in the original story. Details such as a clean shaven store clerk suddenly having a moustache. Or the feel of the wrinkly skin of the old person who came to their aid.

At the end of the experiment normally around 25% of the test subjects vividly remember the first researcher telling them details which were not in the original story.

Some even recover their own traumatic memory of being lost in a supermarket. Only to contact family members to discover that no such event had taken place.

Dr Ford is a doctor of psychology. In her testimony she described a vivid memory or seeing one of her supposed attackers working at the Safeway supermarket.

I think that deep down even Dr Ford knows that she is lying.

19:50 on 27/9/18 (UK date).

Edited at around 13:30 on 28/9/18 (UK date) to add;

*Detail of Dr Ford's unusual PTSD symptoms.

**The Democrats ethics violations.

The Democrats strategy throughout this ugly circus has been to demand an FBI investigation into Dr Ford's claims. Despite advising Dr Ford not to initiate an FBI investigation by filing a criminal complaint.

The Democrats calculation is that an FBI investigation will delay Judge Kavanaugh's appointment to the Supreme Court until after the mid-terms. They think they will win control of Congress during the mid-terms allowing them to permanently block Judge Kavanaugh's appointment.

During the hearing it was revealed that the ranking Democrat on the committee Dianne Feinstein independently contacted the FBI demanding an investigation.

The FBI responded that Dr Ford's claims are so wholly lacking in credibility it is impossible for them to investigate it. They could no more investigate it than they could investigate a Schizophrenics genuine belief that Star Wars is really happening in a galaxy far, far away.

Yet the Democrats continue to demand an FBI investigation.

Back in the 1990's there was a US TV Show called; "The X-Files." This told the story of a secret division of the FBI which investigated alien abductions.

It led to people contacting the FBI claiming they'd been abducted and often sexually assaulted by aliens. They demanded that the FBI investigate their claims.

Like Dr Ford those people held a genuine belief that they had been abducted by aliens. However with the alien suspects having long flown off to a faraway galaxy its impossible for the FBI to investigate.

I suspect the FBI agent responsible for responding to those investigation demands is not the most popular person in their office.

At the same time Feinstein was demanding the FBI investigate Dr Ford's claims the FBI mysteriously shutdown the National Solar Observatory in New Mexico for 10 days.

The FBI's later explanation they were investigating sex crimes has not helped dampen the alien conspiracy theories.

I think it's time for Senator Feinstein to make public exactly what the FBI told her when she demanded they investigate Dr Ford's claim.