In terms of fighting the main action in Syria's war is currently taking place in the Shangri-La area.
As I think we all know by now Shangri-La is located in the north-west of Syria. It is essentially everything to the north-west of the Euphrates River.
The exception is a group of 10 towns stretching across roughly 35km (20 mile) along the north bank of the Euphrates. This area remains under the control of the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL).
The rest of the Shangri-La area is under the control of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF/QSD).
The largest element of the SDF coalition is the Syrian Kurdish People's
Protection Units (YPG). They operate alongside Assyrian/Syriac
Christian,
Turkmen and Arab Muslim forces.
The Arab element which makes up around
50% of the SDF is comprised of both elements of the long defunct Free
Syrian Army (FSA) and local tribes indigenous to north-eastern Syria.
The SDF also contains a small International
Brigade made up of foreign volunteers. They are supposedly supported by the US-led coalition; Combined Joint Task Force:
Operation Inherent Resolve (CJTFOIR) both with air power and Special
Operations Forces (SOF's).
On May 1st (1/5/18) the SDF launched a new anti-ISIL operation within Shangri-La codenamed; "Operation: Round Up."
This operation began with two concurrent phases.
The first phase focused on the roughly 35km (20 mile) area on the
north bank of the Euphrates still under ISIL control. This stretches from the town of Hajin in the north down to Baghuz Tahtani in
the south, where the Euphrates enters Iraq from Syria.
Its objective was to isolate these remaining towns. Both from each other and from the Syria/Iraq border.
This was achieved by the SDF reaching the banks of the Euphrates to the
south-east of Hajin and just to the north-east of Abu Hassan on May 4th (4/5/18). Hajin
sits around 35km (20 miles) north-west of the Syria/Iraq border while
Abu Hassan sits around 8km (5 miles) south-east of Hajin.
At the same time the SDF advanced on the towns of Baghuz Tahtani and Baghuz Fawqani.
These sit adjacent to each other stretching around 6km (3 miles)
north-west of the Iraq/Syria border. By May 14th (14/5/18) the SDF had liberated Baghuz Tahtani and surrounded Baghuz Fawqani.
The second phase of Round Up which was launched at the same time focused
on clearing ISIL from desert areas to the north of the Euphrates River.
Essentially a collection of towns, villages and farms known as the Wadi
ash-Shawkh Agricultural Area. Located on the Syria/Iraq border around
240km (145 miles) north of Baghuz Tahtani on the Euphrates River.
On August 7th (7/8/18) the SDF forces who had conducted phase two of
Round Up arrived at the al-Omar Oil & Gas Field linking up with the
SDF
forces who had conducted phase one of Round Up. As a result both of the
opening phases of Round Up were declared to be at an end.
Over the night of September 10th (10/9/18) into September 11th (11/9/18) the SDF
launched the third phase of Operation: Round Up. This is focused on
liberating those 10 remaining towns on the north bank of the Euphrates
from ISIL.
These towns are all relatively small and sparsely populated.
The largest, Hajin, is only 12kmsq (7 milesq) in area containing just five main roads. It is roughly twice the size of the just the Old City district of ISIL's former de facto capital Raqqa City.
Therefore the challenge is not really the urban areas themselves but the layers of defences ISIL have built up around them.
These are made up of dug in fighting positions, trenches and tunnel networks. They are interwoven with large numbers of Improvised Explosive Devices (IED's) and landmines. You could almost flippantly say that the entire area is one big landmine.
This third phase of Operation Round Up is being conducted on three axis;
The north-western axis is focused on Hajin.
The south-western axis is
focused on Baghuz Fawqani.
The third axis is a northern one focused on
the town of Sousse/As-Susah. This is located around 8km (5 miles)
north-west of Baghuz Fawqani and around 12km (7 miles) south-east of
Hajin.
Of the three axis the fighting has been the heaviest and the progress slowest along the north-western Hajin axis. On account of Hajin being believed to be effectively ISIL's new de facto capital.
Despite this on the first two days of operations - September 11th (11/9/18) and September 12th (12/9/18) - the SDF advanced 6km (3.5 miles). In the process they liberated 10 ISIL fighting
positions.
The next real progress of the Hajin axis did not come until September 18th (18/9/18). Here the SDF managed to advance 2km (1.2 miles) and liberate 15 fighting positions. These advances prompted an ISIL counter attack which the SDF were able to quickly absorb and repel leading to a short period of calm.
That calm was broken overnight when ISIL launched another counter attack. Again though the SDF were able to absorb and repel the attack. The following morning (19/9/18) the SDF advanced 750 metres/yards and liberated another 6 fighting positions.
While the SDF's casualties in terms of ISIL fire were light they did sustain casualties from mines and IED's. ISIL fire only succeeded in wounding 1 member of the SDF. However 2 members of the SDF were wounded in a landmine explosion and a further 3 were wounded clearing IED's from buildings. At least 3 ISIL fighters were killed during exchanges with the SDF.
Having entered the urban area of Hajin the SDF spent September 20th (20/9/18) clearing houses of 13 IED's and liberating 5 fighting positions. They also engaged ISIL in tunnel warfare sealing one ISIL tunnel and killing 2 ISIL fighters in the process.
On Friday (21/9/18) the SDF liberated 2km (1.2 miles) of tunnels and interconnected tunnels including 15 fighting positions in Hajin.
For the first five days of operations - September 11th (11/9/18) to September 15th (15/9/18) - the northern Sousse axis was extremely quiet. It seemed almost to be a distraction with fighting there limited to heavy air and artillery strikes along with
heavy machine gun fire.
On September 16th (16/9/18) though the Sousse axis sprang into life. The SDF advanced 2km (1.2 miles) liberating 11 ISIL defensive/fighting positions. Here ISIL have been making extensive use of Person Borne Improvised Explosive Devices (PBIED's) or Suicide Vests (S-Vests). Using these tactics they succeeded in killing two members of the SDF.
The Sousse axis again went quiet. However on September 23rd (23/9/18) the SDF advanced 1km (0.6 mliesq) destroying 4 ISIL tunnels and killing 8 ISIL fighters in the process.
The SDF's main progress has been made on the south-eastern Baghuz Fawqani.
On the first day of operations (11/9/18) on the axis the SDF advanced 3km (1.8 miles). Liberating 10 ISIL fighting positions.
On the second day of operations (12/9/18) on the axis the SDF advanced a further 1km (0.6) miles). In the process liberating 7 ISIL fighting positions.
The third day of operations on the axis (13/9/18) saw ISIL mount a counter attack. Initially this succeeded in pushing the SDF back 1km (0.6 miles) with the loss of 9 fighting positions. However over the course of the day the SDF were able to absorb and repel the attack regaining all the territory they had lost.
On September 14th (14/9/18) the SDF reached the main defensive ring around Baghuz Fawqani. They achieved this by liberating 5 ISIL fighting positions.
With their main defensive line under attack on September 15th (15/9/18) ISIL launched a largescale counter attack.
This saw them hit the SDF with waves of small Vehicle Borne Improvised Explosive Devices (VBIED's) mounted on motorcycles and intense artillery and mortar barrages. However this was not sufficient to stop the SDF liberating a further 4 fighting positions.
The sixth day of operations (16/9/18) on the axis saw the SDF liberate 12 fighting positions. This meant that they had broken through the main defensive ring around Baghuz Fawqani and fighting moved into the town itself.
On September 17th (17/9/18) the SDF liberated 12 fighting positions within Baghuz Fawqani. Rather than fighting the SDF directly ISIL relied instead upon landmines and IED's.
September 18th (18/9/18) saw the SDF liberate the Boukamal Bridge.
Sitting right in the north-west corner of Baghuz Fawqani this bridge links the town with al-Ays neighbourhood of Al Boukamal/Abu Kamal on the southern bank of the Euphrates. With Abu Kamal under the control of Syrian forces having liberated the bridge the SDF promptly destroyed it to protect Baghuz Fawqani and Shangri-La from attack.
Finding themselves on the verge of losing Baghuz Fawqani entirely ISIL launched a sustained counter attack on September 19th (19/9/18). This saw them deploy at least 2 VBIED's against the SDF's positions. Those VBIED's were successfully destroyed without SDF losses and the counter attack collapsed.
ISIL launched another counter attack on September 20th (20/9/18) using VBIED's. To great comedic effect.
ISIL deployed 3 large VBIED's against SDF positions. The first was destroyed in an airstrike. The second was prematurely detonated by its operator before it reached the SDF. In the process the second VBIED blew up the third VBIED meaning the entire attack only succeeded in wounding 2 SDF fighters.
Having absorbed and repelled the ISIL attack the SDF then advanced a further 1km (0.6 miles) liberating the last remaining 12 ISIL fighting positions.
This allowed the SDF to declare Baghuz Fawqani fully liberated. On Thursday September 20th (20/9/18). The tenth day of operations.
The SDF then spent the next few days securing Baghuz Fawqani. While coming under fire from ISIL positions elsewhere.
For example on September 21st (21/9/18) ISIL attacked the now SDF fighting positions around the town with 4 PBIED's. On September 22nd (22/9/18) ISIL unsuccessfully tried to attack the SDF in Baghuz Fawqani with a small armed, commercial drone.
On September 23rd (23/9/18) alone the SDF defused 30 IED's and landmines ISIL had left littering the town.
Directly to the north of Baghuz Fawqani you have the town of al-Shalja. Directly to the north of al-Shalja you have Sousse.
So on September 24th (24/9/18) both the SDF's south-western Baghuz Fawqani axis and the SDF's northern Sousse axis turned their attention to al-Shalja. The Sousse axis advanced to the west of the town while the Baghuz Fawqani axis advanced to the east of al-Shalja.
Almost without a fight al-Shalja was liberated by the SDF yesterday. Tuesday September 25th (25/9/18).
While the SDF have been conducting the third phase of Operation: Round Up ISIL have been attempting to attack them behind their lines.
On September 18th (18/9/18) ISIL launched coordinated attacks against the SDF in Kasra and Shadaddi.
Kasra is located on the north bank of the Euphrates around 30km (20 miles) north-west of Deir-ez-Zour City and around 90km (50 miles) south-east of Raqqa City. Shadaddi is located on the Khobar River around 120km (70 miles) north-east of Deir-ez-Zour City and around 110km (65 miles) south of Hasakah City.
In Kasra the ISIL attack took the form of a roadside bomb ambush against an SDF vehicle patrol which wounded 5 members of the SDF. A further SDF fighter was wounded by sniper fire. The ISIL attack in Shadaddi took the form of a conventional ground assault on an SDF base. After a 30 minute firefight the attack was repelled.
The SDF responded by conducting security sweeps in both Kasra and Shadaddi the following day (19/9/18). This saw some small skirmishes with ISIL in both locations. In Kasra 3 members of the SDF were wounded when their vehicle struck a landmine.
This lack of success however has not stopped ISIL making some very wild claims about their victories against the SDF.
For example ISIL claim that on September 16th (16/9/18) alone they killed 8 members of the SDF in a roadside bomb ambush in Hasakah, killed 1 member of the SDF in an IED attack in Raqqa City, wounded several members of the SDF in a grenade attack in Shadaddi and destroyed an SDF tank in the Omar Oil and Gas Field.
On September 20th (20/9/18) ISIL claim they carried out a roadside bomb ambush of an SDF convoy near Shadaddi. This apparently wounded 25 and killed 15. Including American soldiers.
There is absolutely nothing to indicate that these claims are in any way true.
I should also point out that I am aware that on September 17th (17/9/18) Russia and Turkey agreed to establish an Demilitarised Zone (DMZ) within the Sudetenland area of Syria.
As I've mentioned the Sudetenland area is much larger than merely Idlib Province. It actually throws a jagged boundary around four of Syria's provinces. Although the groups operating within that area are part of the Army of Conquest coalition they do all retain their own identity, leaders and objectives.
So I really need some time to consider the implications of the DMZ plan before commenting on it further.
Annoyingly despite being announced on September 17th (17/9/18) the details only really emerged on September 21st (21/9/18). Just as I was losing mastery of my own brain.
The obvious problem with the proposal though is that it requires Al Qaeda to just magically disappear into thin air.
It is worth noting that ahead of the September 7th (7/9/18) meeting in Iran Turkish President/Prime Minister/Emperor Recep Tayyip Erdogan's main objective was to allow foreign extremists to return home from Syria.
Which sounds like very bad news. Particularly if you are French.
17:45 on 26/9/18 (UK date).
Wednesday, 26 September 2018
Friday, 21 September 2018
It Certainly Beats the War Boys.
On Wednesday (19/9/18) I went down to Salisbury to visit my mothers.
Clutching a copy of that day's The Sun newspaper.
I returned home in the past hour or so.
Dispelling exactly no lesbian stereotypes my mothers have always owned cats.
There was of course Jasmine who thought I was so brilliant she once tried climbing into my bag so I would take her home with me. Back in January 2011. In London Jasmine had a brother who someone rather cruelly poisoned with anti-freeze.
So my mothers got Jasmine a new brother who was a rescue cat. That meant he'd had quite a hard life already.
Apparently he was brought as a kitten by a man in a pub who was trying to impress his girlfriend. The girlfriend was not impressed, the couple broke up and the cat was dumped in a rescue shelter.
After waiting for ages in the shelter he finally found a new forever home. Unfortunately the human at his forever home promptly died. So he was once again dumped in a rescue centre.
No sooner had he found a new forever home the humans there decided to move him to an entirely new home on the other side of the country. To make matter worse they also insisted in getting a boisterous puppy who has grown into a very naughty dog.
So that cat has basically just moved out now. I think I've seen him once in two and a half years.
At the end of the summer my mothers decided to get two new kittens. Who are currently about the same size and shape as the dog's chew toys.
So I couldn't resist the opportunity to see how dog and old cat were coping with the new arrivals. The answer involves separate rooms and lots of firmly shut doors.
While there I did not visit Salisbury Cathedral. With its famous 123m (404ft) spire and its famous clock which has been running continuously since 1386 AD. As Jay Z well knows that is both of my mothers' place of work.
I feel I should point out that my trip was planned and confirmed the day before Russia announced it had located Alexander Petrov and Ruslan Boshirov. And two days before the two men gave their interview to the RT news channel. So if I am the Russian troll Twitter insists that I am then clearly I'm in trouble with my handler.
In response to that interview at lot of British people expressed incredulity that two men would travel from Moscow in Russia to London in the UK for a weekend. Much less that they would then travel from London to Salisbury. I don't think those people appreciate quite how large a country Russia actually is.
Whatever you may feel about its politics Russia is undeniably vast. It stretches across nine timezones - three times as many of the US. In terms of surface area Russia is roughly the same size as Pluto. The Pluto which is constantly at the centre of a debate over whether it is a planet or merely a dwarf planet.
The distance between Moscow and London is roughly the same as the distance between St Petersburg and Sochi. During the 2018 World Cup the England team were based near St Petersburg. They travelled down to Sochi to play Croatia before travelling back to the team base.
Those of you who remember the 2014 Winter Olympics will know that Russia are very proud of their railway network. Particularly the Trans-Siberian Railway which runs from Moscow to Vladivostok which borders China and the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK/North).
On the Trans-Siberian Railway a journey from one end of the line to the other takes around two weeks. Which coincidentally is about the same time it takes to travel from Caterham to London Victoria on Southern Rail.
Even with the stop at Andover the journey from London Waterloo to Salisbury takes an entirely reasonable 90 minutes. With South-West Trains seeming to be the only UK rail franchise that actually works.
The purpose of my visit meant that I spent most of my time sitting quietly on a sofa with pockets crammed full of kitten treats. Aloofly waiting to be approached.
Apart from that I did pretty much what I do every day. It's just whereas normally I would be staring at my tablet sitting in a chair indoors there I was staring at my tablet sitting in a chair in the garden. Supervising the dog's free play.
Not playing with the dog you understand. Merely providing a human anchor to allow the gun dog to hurtle around the garden trying to get leaves to fly up in the air so they could be shot and retrieved. That is a much safer option for a gun dog that is afraid of the sound of gunshots.
My mothers and I decided we should help support Salisbury's economy by going out for a meal on Thursday (20/9/18).
The problem was that my mothers had their hearts set on Chinese food. China led the Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW) investigation into the Skripal poisoning. Which I suspect led to a few tense phonecalls with family back in the old country.
We were debating this on Wednesday (19/9/18) while watching the BBC 10 O'Clock News. Which was broadcasting live from outside the place we'd stopped for coffee just a few hours later.
So we decided the best strategy to be supportive was to get a takeaway. That way they still got the money but don't have to put up with me sitting in the middle of their restaurant. If anything Zizzi's has been excessively punished for the slightly rude service they offered on my last visit.
We did though decide to wander around the city centre and get lunch. We very nearly went to Prezzos. The Italian restaurant which was locked down of Sunday (16/9/18) evening. However we decided that probably a little too on the nose.
So instead we went to a cosy restaurant just off the High Street. I had a very nice Pastrami sandwich. Obviously with the Russian dressing.
Just before I left we actually stopped for lunch at the Old Ale House and Coffee Bar. The pub across the road from Prezzos which was also locked down. However that was entirely by accident. None of us could remember the name of the pub around the corner with the food that lets the dog in until after we'd sat down and ordered.
When there are guests staying the dog has a tendency to get over excited. So it is a tradition that any visit involves a really long walk to tire the dog out. This time we went to Old Sarum which continues to be an entirely different place from Stonehenge. This was simply because it was near-by and the chalk soil drains any rain water away quickly.
Old Sarum is always really windy. Which along with the water supply problems is why they moved the Cathedral from there to its current location in the 12th Century.It is also close to a small, recreational airfield. The last time I was there in January 2018 it was so windy we were wondering if the airfield was still operating when we saw and aircraft flying overhead.
Eventually we realised it was an Apache helicopter gunship. Which fortunately was on a positioning flight rather than in attack mode. I don't think Old Sarum's earthen ramparts would have been much use if it had been in full beast mode.
It is of course a shame the security situation in Khanistan remains so bad that it prevents me from making more of a performance of these little trips.
After all if you are visiting a place which is now referred to by some locals as; "Novichok Central."
And you just happen to own a gasmask and protective gloves.
Well, surely that is how you have to triumphantly emerge from the train station.
17:15 on 21/9/18 (UK date).
Clutching a copy of that day's The Sun newspaper.
I returned home in the past hour or so.
Dispelling exactly no lesbian stereotypes my mothers have always owned cats.
There was of course Jasmine who thought I was so brilliant she once tried climbing into my bag so I would take her home with me. Back in January 2011. In London Jasmine had a brother who someone rather cruelly poisoned with anti-freeze.
So my mothers got Jasmine a new brother who was a rescue cat. That meant he'd had quite a hard life already.
Apparently he was brought as a kitten by a man in a pub who was trying to impress his girlfriend. The girlfriend was not impressed, the couple broke up and the cat was dumped in a rescue shelter.
After waiting for ages in the shelter he finally found a new forever home. Unfortunately the human at his forever home promptly died. So he was once again dumped in a rescue centre.
No sooner had he found a new forever home the humans there decided to move him to an entirely new home on the other side of the country. To make matter worse they also insisted in getting a boisterous puppy who has grown into a very naughty dog.
So that cat has basically just moved out now. I think I've seen him once in two and a half years.
At the end of the summer my mothers decided to get two new kittens. Who are currently about the same size and shape as the dog's chew toys.
So I couldn't resist the opportunity to see how dog and old cat were coping with the new arrivals. The answer involves separate rooms and lots of firmly shut doors.
While there I did not visit Salisbury Cathedral. With its famous 123m (404ft) spire and its famous clock which has been running continuously since 1386 AD. As Jay Z well knows that is both of my mothers' place of work.
I feel I should point out that my trip was planned and confirmed the day before Russia announced it had located Alexander Petrov and Ruslan Boshirov. And two days before the two men gave their interview to the RT news channel. So if I am the Russian troll Twitter insists that I am then clearly I'm in trouble with my handler.
In response to that interview at lot of British people expressed incredulity that two men would travel from Moscow in Russia to London in the UK for a weekend. Much less that they would then travel from London to Salisbury. I don't think those people appreciate quite how large a country Russia actually is.
Whatever you may feel about its politics Russia is undeniably vast. It stretches across nine timezones - three times as many of the US. In terms of surface area Russia is roughly the same size as Pluto. The Pluto which is constantly at the centre of a debate over whether it is a planet or merely a dwarf planet.
The distance between Moscow and London is roughly the same as the distance between St Petersburg and Sochi. During the 2018 World Cup the England team were based near St Petersburg. They travelled down to Sochi to play Croatia before travelling back to the team base.
Those of you who remember the 2014 Winter Olympics will know that Russia are very proud of their railway network. Particularly the Trans-Siberian Railway which runs from Moscow to Vladivostok which borders China and the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK/North).
On the Trans-Siberian Railway a journey from one end of the line to the other takes around two weeks. Which coincidentally is about the same time it takes to travel from Caterham to London Victoria on Southern Rail.
Even with the stop at Andover the journey from London Waterloo to Salisbury takes an entirely reasonable 90 minutes. With South-West Trains seeming to be the only UK rail franchise that actually works.
The purpose of my visit meant that I spent most of my time sitting quietly on a sofa with pockets crammed full of kitten treats. Aloofly waiting to be approached.
Apart from that I did pretty much what I do every day. It's just whereas normally I would be staring at my tablet sitting in a chair indoors there I was staring at my tablet sitting in a chair in the garden. Supervising the dog's free play.
Not playing with the dog you understand. Merely providing a human anchor to allow the gun dog to hurtle around the garden trying to get leaves to fly up in the air so they could be shot and retrieved. That is a much safer option for a gun dog that is afraid of the sound of gunshots.
My mothers and I decided we should help support Salisbury's economy by going out for a meal on Thursday (20/9/18).
The problem was that my mothers had their hearts set on Chinese food. China led the Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW) investigation into the Skripal poisoning. Which I suspect led to a few tense phonecalls with family back in the old country.
We were debating this on Wednesday (19/9/18) while watching the BBC 10 O'Clock News. Which was broadcasting live from outside the place we'd stopped for coffee just a few hours later.
So we decided the best strategy to be supportive was to get a takeaway. That way they still got the money but don't have to put up with me sitting in the middle of their restaurant. If anything Zizzi's has been excessively punished for the slightly rude service they offered on my last visit.
We did though decide to wander around the city centre and get lunch. We very nearly went to Prezzos. The Italian restaurant which was locked down of Sunday (16/9/18) evening. However we decided that probably a little too on the nose.
So instead we went to a cosy restaurant just off the High Street. I had a very nice Pastrami sandwich. Obviously with the Russian dressing.
Just before I left we actually stopped for lunch at the Old Ale House and Coffee Bar. The pub across the road from Prezzos which was also locked down. However that was entirely by accident. None of us could remember the name of the pub around the corner with the food that lets the dog in until after we'd sat down and ordered.
When there are guests staying the dog has a tendency to get over excited. So it is a tradition that any visit involves a really long walk to tire the dog out. This time we went to Old Sarum which continues to be an entirely different place from Stonehenge. This was simply because it was near-by and the chalk soil drains any rain water away quickly.
Old Sarum is always really windy. Which along with the water supply problems is why they moved the Cathedral from there to its current location in the 12th Century.It is also close to a small, recreational airfield. The last time I was there in January 2018 it was so windy we were wondering if the airfield was still operating when we saw and aircraft flying overhead.
Eventually we realised it was an Apache helicopter gunship. Which fortunately was on a positioning flight rather than in attack mode. I don't think Old Sarum's earthen ramparts would have been much use if it had been in full beast mode.
It is of course a shame the security situation in Khanistan remains so bad that it prevents me from making more of a performance of these little trips.
After all if you are visiting a place which is now referred to by some locals as; "Novichok Central."
And you just happen to own a gasmask and protective gloves.
Well, surely that is how you have to triumphantly emerge from the train station.
17:15 on 21/9/18 (UK date).
Wednesday, 19 September 2018
Operation Featherweight: Month 51, Week 2, Day 7.
This is really a continuation of Monday's post; https://watchitdie.blogspot.com/2018/09/operation-featherweight-month-51-week-2.html
As they fight the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) continue to be attacked by irregular Turkish forces within Shangri-La. Specifically the Eruption Movement/Harakat al-Qiyam (HAQ) group.
Harakat al-Qiyam started life as the Army of Revolutionaries/Jaish al-Thuwar. A fragment of the long defunct Free Syrian Army (FSA) trained by Combined Joint Taskforce: Operation Inherent Resolve (CJTFOIR) at the Bobby Sands base near al-Tanf.
When the Syrians liberated al-Tanf back in July 2017 all CJTFOIR nations with the exception of the US abandoned the Bobby Sands base. Despite continuing to operate at the base the US scaled back their presence transferring most of the FSA fragments being trained there to Shangri-La. Including the Army of Revolutionaries.
The plan was that the Army of Revolutionaries would join and fight as part of the SDF coalition. Rather like a different Army of Revolutionaries who have long and successfully fought as part of the SDF.
However as soon as this Army of Revolutionaries arrived in Shangri-La they changed their name to Harakat al-Qiyam and started attacking the SDF. They are funded by and operate under the command of the Turkish National Intelligence Agency (MIT).
On September 6th (6/9/18) HAQ carried out a bomb ambush against the SDF in Manbij. The SDF controlled town which sits right on the western boundary of Shangri-La where the Euphrates enters Syria from Turkey. Two members of the SDF were killed in the attack.
The following day on September 7th (7/9/18) HAQ snipers shot and killed an SDF intelligence officer in Raqqa City.
On September 12th (12/9/18) HAQ carried out another bomb attack in Manbij. HAQ claim that this bombing killed two members of the SDF. However all other sources report that it killed an infant child and seriously wounded its mother.
There is also a suspicion that some of the attacks carried out in and around Raqqa City which have been claimed by ISIL were in fact carried out by HAQ.
Within Afrin Canton the SDF have continued to resist the ongoing occupation by the regular Turkish military (TSK) and the irregular United Turkmen Army (UTA).
On August 19th (19/8/18) SDF snipers conducted a targeted assassination of a commander in the Levant Front/Jabhat al-Shamiyah brigade of the UTA. Mohammad Arduan was shot and killed in Afrin Canton's Mabata district.
On August 24th (24/8/18) SDF snipers again carried out a targeted assassination of a UTA commander. Khalid al-Taher of the UTA's Levant Legion/Faylaq al-Sham brigade was shot and killed in the Bulbul district of Afrin Canton.
August 29th (29/8/18) was a particularly bloody day for the UTA.
Firstly the SDF conducted a conventional ground assault on a base belonging to the Hamza Division/Furqat al-Hamza brigade of the UTA. The raid which took place close to Biye village in the Sherwa district saw 10 UTA fighters killed.
Later that day the SDF ambushed a vehicle patrol by the UTA's Hamza Division brigade. The ambush which also took place in Sherwa district killed 5 members of the UTA.
Finally that day the SDF ambushed a vehicle patrol by the UTA's Levant Legion brigade on the Biye to Kefr Nebo road. This ambush killed 4 members of the UTA including Faylaq al-Sham commander Khaled al-Abeed.
The following day (30/8/18) the SDF ambushed a vehicle patrol by the UTA's Northern Storm/Asafat al-Shimal brigade in Shara district killing several fighters.
On August 31st (31/8/18) the SDF ambushed a vehicle patrol by an undisclosed brigade of the UTA. This ambush saw 3 members of the UTA killed and 3 others seriously wounded.
On September 1st (1/9/18) the SDF used a hidden roadside bomb to ambush a joint vehicle patrol by the TSK and the UTA within Afrin City itself. This resulted in the deaths of 3 UTA fighters and 3 more seriously wounded.
Amid this troubled period for the UTA September 3rd (3/9/18) marked another particularly bloody day for them.
It began with a conventional ground assault on a base operated by the UTA's Levant Front brigade in Khalta near Afrin City. This raid resulted in the deaths of 6 UTA fighters and significant damage to the base.
Later in the day the SDF ambushed a vehicle patrol by the UTA's Levant Front brigade in Afrin City. This killed 5 members of the UTA including Ahmed Semir Brier. A commander of the 23rd Division FSA fragment. The fact he was commanding a Levant Front patrol is further evidence of how the supposedly Syrian "rebels" are an invasion force operating on behalf of Turkey.
Then the SDF ambushed a vehicle patrol by an undisclosed brigade of the UTA. The ambush which took place in Sherwa district resulted in the deaths of 4 UTA fighters.
Finally on September 3rd (3/9/18) the SDF ambushed a vehicle patrol by the UTA's Levant Brigade/Liwa al-Sham brigade. This ambush near the village of Mariamin in Sherwa district saw a further 4 members of the UTA killed.
On September 6th (6/9/18) the SDF ambushed a vehicle patrol by the UTA's Levant Front brigade near Dikmedash in Shera district. This succeeded in killing 2 members of the UTA and seriously wounding 2 others.
September 7th (7/8/18) saw the SDF ambush two members of the UTA's Sultan Murad brigade as they were travelling in a vehicle together in Shera district. Both of the fighters were killed outright.
On September 8th (8/9/18) SDF snipers shot and killed a fighter from the UTA's Freeman of the East/Ahrar al-Sharqiya brigade on a road in the Rajo district.
On September 9th (9/8/18) the SDF ambushed a vehicle patrol by the UTA's Faylaq al-Sham in Afrin district. 2 fighters were killed in the ambush.
The success of the SDF is clearly damaging the UTA's morale. On September 7th (7/9/18) it was confirmed these mercenaries have demanded higher pay from Turkey. Particularly when it comes to death and disability benefits.
Previously Turkey would pay between US$2,000 and US$4,000 to any wounded UTA fighter. The families of any UTA fighter killed would receive Turkish citizenship and US$5,500.
In light of the increased danger they face Turkey is now required to pay the relatives of any UTA fighter US$10,000. Plus grant them Turkish citizenship.
Meanwhile Turkey is continuing to conduct attacks against civilian targets in both Afrin Canton and Garvaghy Road. In the hope these attacks will be blamed on the SDF turning the local population against them.
For example on September 5th (5/9/18) a bomb hidden in a motorcycle was detonated in Jarablus which sits on the boundary between Garvaghy Road and Shangri-La. This is a tactic commonly used by the SDF against the TSK and the UTA in Afrin Canton. However this bombing did not target any military unit and there were no casualties.
A much more serious incident occurred on August 31st (31/8/18) in Azaz. This sits on the boundary between Garvaghy Road and Afrin Canton.
A Vehicle Borne Improvised Explosive Device (VBIED) was detonated outside a building housing the headquarters of the Turkish Council. This is the governing authority Turkey has established to administer the areas of Syrian territory under Turkish occupation.
Therefore you would think it would be a prime target for the SDF. If the SDF attacked civilian infrastructure.
However the target of the bomb was not the Turkish Council building. Rather a protest camp established outside by local residents demanding the end of the Turkish occupation.
The attack killed at least one civilian protester and wounded at least 18 other civilians. Both protesters and local residents who happened to be passing by.
19:00 on 19/9/18 (UK date).
As they fight the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) continue to be attacked by irregular Turkish forces within Shangri-La. Specifically the Eruption Movement/Harakat al-Qiyam (HAQ) group.
Harakat al-Qiyam started life as the Army of Revolutionaries/Jaish al-Thuwar. A fragment of the long defunct Free Syrian Army (FSA) trained by Combined Joint Taskforce: Operation Inherent Resolve (CJTFOIR) at the Bobby Sands base near al-Tanf.
When the Syrians liberated al-Tanf back in July 2017 all CJTFOIR nations with the exception of the US abandoned the Bobby Sands base. Despite continuing to operate at the base the US scaled back their presence transferring most of the FSA fragments being trained there to Shangri-La. Including the Army of Revolutionaries.
The plan was that the Army of Revolutionaries would join and fight as part of the SDF coalition. Rather like a different Army of Revolutionaries who have long and successfully fought as part of the SDF.
However as soon as this Army of Revolutionaries arrived in Shangri-La they changed their name to Harakat al-Qiyam and started attacking the SDF. They are funded by and operate under the command of the Turkish National Intelligence Agency (MIT).
On September 6th (6/9/18) HAQ carried out a bomb ambush against the SDF in Manbij. The SDF controlled town which sits right on the western boundary of Shangri-La where the Euphrates enters Syria from Turkey. Two members of the SDF were killed in the attack.
The following day on September 7th (7/9/18) HAQ snipers shot and killed an SDF intelligence officer in Raqqa City.
On September 12th (12/9/18) HAQ carried out another bomb attack in Manbij. HAQ claim that this bombing killed two members of the SDF. However all other sources report that it killed an infant child and seriously wounded its mother.
There is also a suspicion that some of the attacks carried out in and around Raqqa City which have been claimed by ISIL were in fact carried out by HAQ.
Within Afrin Canton the SDF have continued to resist the ongoing occupation by the regular Turkish military (TSK) and the irregular United Turkmen Army (UTA).
On August 19th (19/8/18) SDF snipers conducted a targeted assassination of a commander in the Levant Front/Jabhat al-Shamiyah brigade of the UTA. Mohammad Arduan was shot and killed in Afrin Canton's Mabata district.
On August 24th (24/8/18) SDF snipers again carried out a targeted assassination of a UTA commander. Khalid al-Taher of the UTA's Levant Legion/Faylaq al-Sham brigade was shot and killed in the Bulbul district of Afrin Canton.
August 29th (29/8/18) was a particularly bloody day for the UTA.
Firstly the SDF conducted a conventional ground assault on a base belonging to the Hamza Division/Furqat al-Hamza brigade of the UTA. The raid which took place close to Biye village in the Sherwa district saw 10 UTA fighters killed.
Later that day the SDF ambushed a vehicle patrol by the UTA's Hamza Division brigade. The ambush which also took place in Sherwa district killed 5 members of the UTA.
Finally that day the SDF ambushed a vehicle patrol by the UTA's Levant Legion brigade on the Biye to Kefr Nebo road. This ambush killed 4 members of the UTA including Faylaq al-Sham commander Khaled al-Abeed.
The following day (30/8/18) the SDF ambushed a vehicle patrol by the UTA's Northern Storm/Asafat al-Shimal brigade in Shara district killing several fighters.
On August 31st (31/8/18) the SDF ambushed a vehicle patrol by an undisclosed brigade of the UTA. This ambush saw 3 members of the UTA killed and 3 others seriously wounded.
On September 1st (1/9/18) the SDF used a hidden roadside bomb to ambush a joint vehicle patrol by the TSK and the UTA within Afrin City itself. This resulted in the deaths of 3 UTA fighters and 3 more seriously wounded.
Amid this troubled period for the UTA September 3rd (3/9/18) marked another particularly bloody day for them.
It began with a conventional ground assault on a base operated by the UTA's Levant Front brigade in Khalta near Afrin City. This raid resulted in the deaths of 6 UTA fighters and significant damage to the base.
Later in the day the SDF ambushed a vehicle patrol by the UTA's Levant Front brigade in Afrin City. This killed 5 members of the UTA including Ahmed Semir Brier. A commander of the 23rd Division FSA fragment. The fact he was commanding a Levant Front patrol is further evidence of how the supposedly Syrian "rebels" are an invasion force operating on behalf of Turkey.
Then the SDF ambushed a vehicle patrol by an undisclosed brigade of the UTA. The ambush which took place in Sherwa district resulted in the deaths of 4 UTA fighters.
Finally on September 3rd (3/9/18) the SDF ambushed a vehicle patrol by the UTA's Levant Brigade/Liwa al-Sham brigade. This ambush near the village of Mariamin in Sherwa district saw a further 4 members of the UTA killed.
On September 6th (6/9/18) the SDF ambushed a vehicle patrol by the UTA's Levant Front brigade near Dikmedash in Shera district. This succeeded in killing 2 members of the UTA and seriously wounding 2 others.
September 7th (7/8/18) saw the SDF ambush two members of the UTA's Sultan Murad brigade as they were travelling in a vehicle together in Shera district. Both of the fighters were killed outright.
On September 8th (8/9/18) SDF snipers shot and killed a fighter from the UTA's Freeman of the East/Ahrar al-Sharqiya brigade on a road in the Rajo district.
On September 9th (9/8/18) the SDF ambushed a vehicle patrol by the UTA's Faylaq al-Sham in Afrin district. 2 fighters were killed in the ambush.
The success of the SDF is clearly damaging the UTA's morale. On September 7th (7/9/18) it was confirmed these mercenaries have demanded higher pay from Turkey. Particularly when it comes to death and disability benefits.
Previously Turkey would pay between US$2,000 and US$4,000 to any wounded UTA fighter. The families of any UTA fighter killed would receive Turkish citizenship and US$5,500.
In light of the increased danger they face Turkey is now required to pay the relatives of any UTA fighter US$10,000. Plus grant them Turkish citizenship.
Meanwhile Turkey is continuing to conduct attacks against civilian targets in both Afrin Canton and Garvaghy Road. In the hope these attacks will be blamed on the SDF turning the local population against them.
For example on September 5th (5/9/18) a bomb hidden in a motorcycle was detonated in Jarablus which sits on the boundary between Garvaghy Road and Shangri-La. This is a tactic commonly used by the SDF against the TSK and the UTA in Afrin Canton. However this bombing did not target any military unit and there were no casualties.
A much more serious incident occurred on August 31st (31/8/18) in Azaz. This sits on the boundary between Garvaghy Road and Afrin Canton.
A Vehicle Borne Improvised Explosive Device (VBIED) was detonated outside a building housing the headquarters of the Turkish Council. This is the governing authority Turkey has established to administer the areas of Syrian territory under Turkish occupation.
Therefore you would think it would be a prime target for the SDF. If the SDF attacked civilian infrastructure.
However the target of the bomb was not the Turkish Council building. Rather a protest camp established outside by local residents demanding the end of the Turkish occupation.
The attack killed at least one civilian protester and wounded at least 18 other civilians. Both protesters and local residents who happened to be passing by.
19:00 on 19/9/18 (UK date).
Monday, 17 September 2018
Operation Featherweight: Month 51, Week 2, Day 5.
There are currently five areas of operation within the conflict in Syria;
Shangri-La, Garvaghy Road, Afrin Canton, the Sudetenland and Central Syria.
The Shangri-La area is located in the north-east of Syria. It is essentially everything to the north-east of the Euphrates River.
It is under the control of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF/QSD).
The largest element of the SDF coalition is the Syrian Kurdish People's Protection Units (YPG). They operate alongside Assyrian/Syriac Christian, Turkmen and Arab Muslim forces.
The Arab element which makes up around 50% of the SDF is comprised of both elements of the long defunct Free Syrian Army (FSA) and local tribes indigenous to north-eastern Syria.
The SDF also contains a small International Brigade made up of foreign volunteers. They are supposedly supported by the US-led coalition; Combined Joint Task Force: Operation Inherent Resolve (CJTFOIR) both with air power and Special Operations Forces (SOF's).
One of the of foreign volunteers with the SDF's International Brigade is former British soldier Joe Robinson.
He was arrested in Turkey in July 2017. On Saturday (15/9/18) he was sentenced to 7 years in prison as a member of a terrorist organisation. Turkey classes the SDF to be part of the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) which it considers to be a terrorist group.
Joe Robinson's arrest and imprisonment does put Britain in a difficult position diplomatically.
If you are a visitor to a country you are expected to abide by all the laws of that country. No matter how ridiculous they are.
In August there was a case where a British woman was jailed for four days in Dubai in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) for possession of alcohol. Alcohol that was in her system because she'd drunk a complimentary glass of wine provided by the airline Emirates on her flight into Dubai. Although I gather she was also travelling on an expired visa and was extremely rude to border guards.
In situations like this diplomats cannot demand that their citizens be released. They can merely request, cajole or advise that their citizens be released.
Complicating matters further Turkish President/Prime Minister/Emperor Recep Tayyip Erdogan feels that the accepted rules and norms of behaviour simply do not apply to him. Much of his approach to international relations has become centred around kidnapping foreign nationals to use them as hostages to blackmail their governments.
Since 2016 the US has been dealing with the case of Andrew Brunson. An American Christian minister living in the Turkish city of Izmir.
In October 2016 Andrew Brunson was also arrested as a member of a terrorist group. His crime was to have a retail account with a High Street bank Erdogan claims is part of an elaborate international conspiracy against him.
A conspiracy so elaborate it apparently includes both the SDF and the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL). Despite the many years those two groups have spent fighting each other.
In June 2018 Erdogan used Brunson as leverage.
To force the US to put pressure on Israel to release Ebru Ozkan. A Turkish spy working in the West Bank to coordinate much of the recent violence seen in response to the US' decision to move its Embassy to Jerusalem. In July 2018 Israel released Ozkan. Erdogan reneged on the agreement with the US and kept Brunson in custody. No doubt to use him as further leverage.
Just last Tuesday (11/9/18) Turkey arrested Austrian journalist Max Zirngast. Again on vague charges of terrorism.
The 2015 European migration crisis saw Austrian politics shift dramatically to the right. Therefore is likely they will lead the opposition within the European Union (EU) to their close neighbour Germany's open door immigration policy. Should Erdogan once again attempt to flood Europe with terrorists and irregular migrants.
Despite the diplomatic problems the case presents I have to say that BBC News' coverage of Robinson's sentencing on Saturday (15/9/18) was shameful. Despite Robinson being a British military veteran they seemed to agree with Erdogan's position entirely. That fighting against ISIL is an evil terrorist act.
I think the obvious advice is for people to avoid travelling to Turkey. Robinson, Brunson and Zirngast seem to be one step away from appearing in videos in orange jumpsuits with Erdogan threatening to behead them if his demands are not met.
The boundaries of Shangri-La were fully established through the SDF's "Cizre Storm" operation launched in September 2017. This saw the SDF advance south-east from the so-called Madan-Shadaddi Line. First to the Khobar River and then from the Khobar River to the Syria/Iraq border.
This was done on two main axis;
One which advanced along the northern bank of the Euphrates liberating the towns and population centres which sit on the river bank.
One that advanced across the desert area to the north of the Euphrates. This saw the SDF clear ISIL from an area between roughly the Khobar River and Syria's border with Iraq.
On November 25th 2017 (25/11/17) the desert axis reached the Syria/Iraq border. In the area of the Buwarah Salt Pan which sits around 90km (50 miles) north of where the Euphrates enters Iraq from Syria.
On February 22nd 2018 (22/2/18) the river bank axis liberated the town of al-Bahrah. This sits around 40km (25 miles) north-west of where the Euphrates enters Iraq from Syria.
Due to the Turkish invasion of then SDF controlled Afrin Canton in north-west Syria the Cizre Storm operation had to be halted on March 6th (6/3/18).
On May 1st (1/5/18) the SDF launched a new anti-ISIL operation in Shangri-La. Under the new name; "Operation: Round Up."
This operation began with two concurrent phases.
The first phase focused on the roughly 35km (20 mile) stretch of the north bank of the Euphrates still under ISIL control. This is made up of 10 towns stretching from Hajin in the north down to Baghuz Tahtani in the south, where the Euphrates enters Iraq from Syria.
Its objective was to isolate these remaining towns. Both from each other and from the Syria/Iraq border.
This was achieved by the SDF reaching the banks of the Euphrates to the south-east of Hajin and just to the north-east of Abu Hassan. Hajin sits around 35km (20 miles) north-west of the Syria/Iraq border while Abu Hassan sits around 8km (5 miles) south-east of Hajin.
At the same time the SDF advanced on the towns of Baghuz Tahtani and Baghuz Fawqani. These sit adjacent to each other stretching around 6km (3 miles) north-west of the Iraq/Syria border. By May 14th (14/5/18) the SDF had liberated Baghuz Tahtani and surrounded Baghuz Fawqani.
The second phase of Round Up which was launched at the same time focused on clearing ISIL from desert areas to the north of the Euphrates River.
Essentially a collection of towns, villages and farms known as the Wadi ash-Shawkh Agricultural Area. Located on the Syria/Iraq border around 240km (145 miles) north of Baghuz Tahtani on the Euphrates River.
On August 7th (7/8/18) the SDF forces who had conducted phase two of Round Up arrived at the al-Omar Oil & Gas Field linking up with the SDF forces who had conducted phase one of Round Up. As a result both of the opening phases of Round Up were declared to be at an end.
Preparations for the next phase of the Round Up operation allowed ISIL time to regroup and begin launching attacks of its own against the SDF.
On August 21st (21/8/18) ISIL attempted to launch an attack using Vehicle Borne Improvised Explosive Devices (VBIED's) against a CJTFOIR base containing ground forces at Shadaddi. This attack was thwarted by CJTFOIR aircraft long before it could even reach the base.
On August 29th (29/8/18) ISIL conducted a hit and run style attack against SDF positions against the Azraq Oil Field. Part of the much larger al-Omar Oil & Gas Field is located around 15km (10 miles) west of the Buwarah Salt Pan.
On September 4th (4/9/18) ISIL claimed several attacks against the SDF. Roadside bomb ambushes of SDF vehicle patrols. Both close the Etihad University in Raqqa City and in Karama close to Raqqa city. Also a conventional assault on an SDF base close to Shaddadi.
On September 5th (5/9/18) ISIL made an unverified claim that its snipers had killed two members of the SDF in Raqqa City. On September 7th (7/9/18) ISIL made a similar unverified claim that it had killed three members of the SDF in Shadaddi.
On September 8th (8/9/18) ISIL ambushed a SDF vehicle patrol near the Sayjan Oil Field. This is located about 15km (10 miles) north-west of the Azraq Oil Field.
This increase in ISIL attacks prompted the SDF to declare a curfew for Raqqa City and the nearby city of Tabqa on September 6th (6/9/18).
That was to allow for raids to be carried out by the SDF's elite Anti-Terrorism Unit (YAT) against ISIL sleeper cells. Almost a Special Operations Force (SOF) the YAT are similar to Iraq's Counter Terrorism Force (ICTF) who are modelled on the US' Green Berets.
In the course of their operations in Raqqa City and Tabqa the YAT were able to capture a large number of ISIL sleeper agents and seize large quantities of small arms and explosives. They also had similar success in operations conducted in Hasakah City on September 11th (11/9/18).
Those operations follow from the YAT's success in capturing senior ISIL intelligence officer Adil Musa Abdoul Jezar on September 3rd (3/9/18).
The success of the YAT bodes well for Shangri-La's future. Once ISIL are cleared from their last holdouts the fight is going to shift much more into identifying, tracking and capturing ISIL sleeper cells and disrupting planned terror attacks.
Over the night of September 10th (10/9/18) into September 11th (11/9/18) the SDF launched the third phase of Operation: Round Up. This is focused on liberating those 10 remaining towns on the north bank of the Euphrates from ISIL.
It is being conducted on three axis;
The north-western axis is focused on Hajin. The south-western axis is focused on Baghuz Fawqani. The third axis is a northern one focused on the town of Sousse/As-Susah. This is located around 8km (5 miles) north-west of Baghuz Fawqani and around 12km (7 miles) south-east of Hajin.
This area represents the last population centre under ISIL's control anywhere in the World. So although the towns themselves are not densely population they are extremely heavily defended with widespread use of landmines and Improvised Explosive Devices (IED's). Therefore the expectation is that this will be a long and hard fight.
Despite this the SDF have made significant early progress.
In the first two days of operations on the north-western Hajin axis the SDF advance 6km (3.5 miles). In the process they liberated 10 ISIL defensive/fighting positions. Of the three axis this is the one which has seen the heaviest fighting and there have been no subsequent reports of SDF advances.
On the south-eastern Baghuz Fawqani axis the SDF advanced 3km (1.8 miles) liberating 10 ISIL defensive/fighting positions on the first day of operations (11/9/18). On the second day of operations (12/9/18) the SDF advanced a further 1km (0.6 miles) liberating a further 7 ISIL defensive/fighting positions.
Across all three fronts these first two days of fighting saw 6 members of the SDF killed alongside 41 ISIL fighters.
On the third day of operations (13/9/18) on the Baghuz Fawqani axis ISIL launched a counter-attack which saw the SDF pushed back 1km (0.6 miles) and lose control of 9 of the 17 fighting positions they'd gained. Over the course of the day though the SDF were able to stop and reverse the ISIL counter-attack regaining the lost ground.
This fighting saw 23 ISIL fighters killed and 20 wounded. While the SDF only saw 10 fighters wounded. Most when a Humvee struck a landmine.
On the fourth day of operations (14/9/18) the SDF reached the main ring of the town's defence liberating 5 ISIL fighting positions. During this fighting one member of the SDF was killed and another wounded.
With their defensive line under attack ISIL launched largescale attacks against the SDF on the fifth day of operations (15/9/18). This saw the SDF face waves of VBIED (motorcycle) attacks and artillery strikes. However it did not prevent them liberating a further 4 ISIL fighting positions which make up the town's defences.
Yesterday (16/9/18) - the sixth day of operations - the SDF were able to liberate 12 ISIL fighters positions. This meant that they had completely broken through ISIL's defensive line. Fighting has now moved into Baghuz Fawqani itself.
Over the first six days of operations the northern Sousse axis has been quiet. Appearing to be almost a distraction fighting there had been limited to heavy air and artillery strikes along with heavy machine gun fire.
Yesterday (16/9/18) however the Sousse axis seemed to spring into action. The SDF advanced 2km (1.2 miles) liberating 11 ISIL defensive/fighting positions. Sadly 2 members of the SDF were killed in the fighting as ISIL deploy wave after wave of suicide bombers.
17:40 on 17/9/18 (UK date).
Shangri-La, Garvaghy Road, Afrin Canton, the Sudetenland and Central Syria.
The Shangri-La area is located in the north-east of Syria. It is essentially everything to the north-east of the Euphrates River.
It is under the control of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF/QSD).
The largest element of the SDF coalition is the Syrian Kurdish People's Protection Units (YPG). They operate alongside Assyrian/Syriac Christian, Turkmen and Arab Muslim forces.
The Arab element which makes up around 50% of the SDF is comprised of both elements of the long defunct Free Syrian Army (FSA) and local tribes indigenous to north-eastern Syria.
The SDF also contains a small International Brigade made up of foreign volunteers. They are supposedly supported by the US-led coalition; Combined Joint Task Force: Operation Inherent Resolve (CJTFOIR) both with air power and Special Operations Forces (SOF's).
One of the of foreign volunteers with the SDF's International Brigade is former British soldier Joe Robinson.
He was arrested in Turkey in July 2017. On Saturday (15/9/18) he was sentenced to 7 years in prison as a member of a terrorist organisation. Turkey classes the SDF to be part of the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) which it considers to be a terrorist group.
Joe Robinson's arrest and imprisonment does put Britain in a difficult position diplomatically.
If you are a visitor to a country you are expected to abide by all the laws of that country. No matter how ridiculous they are.
In August there was a case where a British woman was jailed for four days in Dubai in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) for possession of alcohol. Alcohol that was in her system because she'd drunk a complimentary glass of wine provided by the airline Emirates on her flight into Dubai. Although I gather she was also travelling on an expired visa and was extremely rude to border guards.
In situations like this diplomats cannot demand that their citizens be released. They can merely request, cajole or advise that their citizens be released.
Complicating matters further Turkish President/Prime Minister/Emperor Recep Tayyip Erdogan feels that the accepted rules and norms of behaviour simply do not apply to him. Much of his approach to international relations has become centred around kidnapping foreign nationals to use them as hostages to blackmail their governments.
Since 2016 the US has been dealing with the case of Andrew Brunson. An American Christian minister living in the Turkish city of Izmir.
In October 2016 Andrew Brunson was also arrested as a member of a terrorist group. His crime was to have a retail account with a High Street bank Erdogan claims is part of an elaborate international conspiracy against him.
A conspiracy so elaborate it apparently includes both the SDF and the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL). Despite the many years those two groups have spent fighting each other.
In June 2018 Erdogan used Brunson as leverage.
To force the US to put pressure on Israel to release Ebru Ozkan. A Turkish spy working in the West Bank to coordinate much of the recent violence seen in response to the US' decision to move its Embassy to Jerusalem. In July 2018 Israel released Ozkan. Erdogan reneged on the agreement with the US and kept Brunson in custody. No doubt to use him as further leverage.
Just last Tuesday (11/9/18) Turkey arrested Austrian journalist Max Zirngast. Again on vague charges of terrorism.
The 2015 European migration crisis saw Austrian politics shift dramatically to the right. Therefore is likely they will lead the opposition within the European Union (EU) to their close neighbour Germany's open door immigration policy. Should Erdogan once again attempt to flood Europe with terrorists and irregular migrants.
Despite the diplomatic problems the case presents I have to say that BBC News' coverage of Robinson's sentencing on Saturday (15/9/18) was shameful. Despite Robinson being a British military veteran they seemed to agree with Erdogan's position entirely. That fighting against ISIL is an evil terrorist act.
I think the obvious advice is for people to avoid travelling to Turkey. Robinson, Brunson and Zirngast seem to be one step away from appearing in videos in orange jumpsuits with Erdogan threatening to behead them if his demands are not met.
The boundaries of Shangri-La were fully established through the SDF's "Cizre Storm" operation launched in September 2017. This saw the SDF advance south-east from the so-called Madan-Shadaddi Line. First to the Khobar River and then from the Khobar River to the Syria/Iraq border.
This was done on two main axis;
One which advanced along the northern bank of the Euphrates liberating the towns and population centres which sit on the river bank.
One that advanced across the desert area to the north of the Euphrates. This saw the SDF clear ISIL from an area between roughly the Khobar River and Syria's border with Iraq.
On November 25th 2017 (25/11/17) the desert axis reached the Syria/Iraq border. In the area of the Buwarah Salt Pan which sits around 90km (50 miles) north of where the Euphrates enters Iraq from Syria.
On February 22nd 2018 (22/2/18) the river bank axis liberated the town of al-Bahrah. This sits around 40km (25 miles) north-west of where the Euphrates enters Iraq from Syria.
Due to the Turkish invasion of then SDF controlled Afrin Canton in north-west Syria the Cizre Storm operation had to be halted on March 6th (6/3/18).
On May 1st (1/5/18) the SDF launched a new anti-ISIL operation in Shangri-La. Under the new name; "Operation: Round Up."
This operation began with two concurrent phases.
The first phase focused on the roughly 35km (20 mile) stretch of the north bank of the Euphrates still under ISIL control. This is made up of 10 towns stretching from Hajin in the north down to Baghuz Tahtani in the south, where the Euphrates enters Iraq from Syria.
Its objective was to isolate these remaining towns. Both from each other and from the Syria/Iraq border.
This was achieved by the SDF reaching the banks of the Euphrates to the south-east of Hajin and just to the north-east of Abu Hassan. Hajin sits around 35km (20 miles) north-west of the Syria/Iraq border while Abu Hassan sits around 8km (5 miles) south-east of Hajin.
At the same time the SDF advanced on the towns of Baghuz Tahtani and Baghuz Fawqani. These sit adjacent to each other stretching around 6km (3 miles) north-west of the Iraq/Syria border. By May 14th (14/5/18) the SDF had liberated Baghuz Tahtani and surrounded Baghuz Fawqani.
The second phase of Round Up which was launched at the same time focused on clearing ISIL from desert areas to the north of the Euphrates River.
Essentially a collection of towns, villages and farms known as the Wadi ash-Shawkh Agricultural Area. Located on the Syria/Iraq border around 240km (145 miles) north of Baghuz Tahtani on the Euphrates River.
On August 7th (7/8/18) the SDF forces who had conducted phase two of Round Up arrived at the al-Omar Oil & Gas Field linking up with the SDF forces who had conducted phase one of Round Up. As a result both of the opening phases of Round Up were declared to be at an end.
Preparations for the next phase of the Round Up operation allowed ISIL time to regroup and begin launching attacks of its own against the SDF.
On August 21st (21/8/18) ISIL attempted to launch an attack using Vehicle Borne Improvised Explosive Devices (VBIED's) against a CJTFOIR base containing ground forces at Shadaddi. This attack was thwarted by CJTFOIR aircraft long before it could even reach the base.
On August 29th (29/8/18) ISIL conducted a hit and run style attack against SDF positions against the Azraq Oil Field. Part of the much larger al-Omar Oil & Gas Field is located around 15km (10 miles) west of the Buwarah Salt Pan.
On September 4th (4/9/18) ISIL claimed several attacks against the SDF. Roadside bomb ambushes of SDF vehicle patrols. Both close the Etihad University in Raqqa City and in Karama close to Raqqa city. Also a conventional assault on an SDF base close to Shaddadi.
On September 5th (5/9/18) ISIL made an unverified claim that its snipers had killed two members of the SDF in Raqqa City. On September 7th (7/9/18) ISIL made a similar unverified claim that it had killed three members of the SDF in Shadaddi.
On September 8th (8/9/18) ISIL ambushed a SDF vehicle patrol near the Sayjan Oil Field. This is located about 15km (10 miles) north-west of the Azraq Oil Field.
This increase in ISIL attacks prompted the SDF to declare a curfew for Raqqa City and the nearby city of Tabqa on September 6th (6/9/18).
That was to allow for raids to be carried out by the SDF's elite Anti-Terrorism Unit (YAT) against ISIL sleeper cells. Almost a Special Operations Force (SOF) the YAT are similar to Iraq's Counter Terrorism Force (ICTF) who are modelled on the US' Green Berets.
In the course of their operations in Raqqa City and Tabqa the YAT were able to capture a large number of ISIL sleeper agents and seize large quantities of small arms and explosives. They also had similar success in operations conducted in Hasakah City on September 11th (11/9/18).
Those operations follow from the YAT's success in capturing senior ISIL intelligence officer Adil Musa Abdoul Jezar on September 3rd (3/9/18).
The success of the YAT bodes well for Shangri-La's future. Once ISIL are cleared from their last holdouts the fight is going to shift much more into identifying, tracking and capturing ISIL sleeper cells and disrupting planned terror attacks.
Over the night of September 10th (10/9/18) into September 11th (11/9/18) the SDF launched the third phase of Operation: Round Up. This is focused on liberating those 10 remaining towns on the north bank of the Euphrates from ISIL.
It is being conducted on three axis;
The north-western axis is focused on Hajin. The south-western axis is focused on Baghuz Fawqani. The third axis is a northern one focused on the town of Sousse/As-Susah. This is located around 8km (5 miles) north-west of Baghuz Fawqani and around 12km (7 miles) south-east of Hajin.
This area represents the last population centre under ISIL's control anywhere in the World. So although the towns themselves are not densely population they are extremely heavily defended with widespread use of landmines and Improvised Explosive Devices (IED's). Therefore the expectation is that this will be a long and hard fight.
Despite this the SDF have made significant early progress.
In the first two days of operations on the north-western Hajin axis the SDF advance 6km (3.5 miles). In the process they liberated 10 ISIL defensive/fighting positions. Of the three axis this is the one which has seen the heaviest fighting and there have been no subsequent reports of SDF advances.
On the south-eastern Baghuz Fawqani axis the SDF advanced 3km (1.8 miles) liberating 10 ISIL defensive/fighting positions on the first day of operations (11/9/18). On the second day of operations (12/9/18) the SDF advanced a further 1km (0.6 miles) liberating a further 7 ISIL defensive/fighting positions.
Across all three fronts these first two days of fighting saw 6 members of the SDF killed alongside 41 ISIL fighters.
On the third day of operations (13/9/18) on the Baghuz Fawqani axis ISIL launched a counter-attack which saw the SDF pushed back 1km (0.6 miles) and lose control of 9 of the 17 fighting positions they'd gained. Over the course of the day though the SDF were able to stop and reverse the ISIL counter-attack regaining the lost ground.
This fighting saw 23 ISIL fighters killed and 20 wounded. While the SDF only saw 10 fighters wounded. Most when a Humvee struck a landmine.
On the fourth day of operations (14/9/18) the SDF reached the main ring of the town's defence liberating 5 ISIL fighting positions. During this fighting one member of the SDF was killed and another wounded.
With their defensive line under attack ISIL launched largescale attacks against the SDF on the fifth day of operations (15/9/18). This saw the SDF face waves of VBIED (motorcycle) attacks and artillery strikes. However it did not prevent them liberating a further 4 ISIL fighting positions which make up the town's defences.
Yesterday (16/9/18) - the sixth day of operations - the SDF were able to liberate 12 ISIL fighters positions. This meant that they had completely broken through ISIL's defensive line. Fighting has now moved into Baghuz Fawqani itself.
Over the first six days of operations the northern Sousse axis has been quiet. Appearing to be almost a distraction fighting there had been limited to heavy air and artillery strikes along with heavy machine gun fire.
Yesterday (16/9/18) however the Sousse axis seemed to spring into action. The SDF advanced 2km (1.2 miles) liberating 11 ISIL defensive/fighting positions. Sadly 2 members of the SDF were killed in the fighting as ISIL deploy wave after wave of suicide bombers.
17:40 on 17/9/18 (UK date).
Wednesday, 12 September 2018
Operation Featherweight: Month 51, Week 1, Day 7.
Within the current conflict in Syria there are five key areas;
Shangri-La, Garvaghy Road, Afrin Canton, the Sudetenland and Central Syria.
Shangri-La:
This is under the control of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF/QSD).
The largest element of the SDF coalition is the Syrian Kurdish People's Protection Units (YPG). They operate alongside Assyrian/Syriac Christian, Turkmen and Arab Muslim forces.
The Arab element which makes up around 50% of the SDF is comprised of both elements of the long defunct Free Syrian Army (FSA) and local tribes indigenous to north-eastern Syria.
The SDF also contains a small International Brigade made up of foreign volunteers. They are supposedly supported by the US-led coalition; Combined Joint Task Force: Operation Inherent Resolve (CJTFOIR) both with air power and Special Operations Forces (SOF's).
The Shangri-La area is essentially everything to the North-East of the Euphrates River. With the exception of a roughly 35km (20 mile) stretch of towns and villages on the north bank of the Euphrates between Hajin and Baghuz Thatani. This area remains under the control of the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL).
Yesterday (11/9/18) the SDF announced the start of an operation to liberate Hajin. At this early stage there is little indication of what their exact strategy is or of any progress.
Garvaghy Road:
This sits directly to the west of Shangri-La where the Euphrates River enters Syria from Turkey. It's stretches roughly 100km (60 miles) from the Euphrates to the towns of Kilis/Azaz.
It was invaded by Turkey in August 2016 and remains under the illegal occupation of the regular Turkish Armed Forces (TSK). Within Garvaghy Road Turkey commands a coalition of Islamist armed groups known as the Army of Conquest/Jaish al-Fatah (JAF).
The dominant group within the Army of Conquest in the Garvaghy Road area is the United Turkmen Army (UTA).
The UTA are formed out of the paramilitary wing of the Turkish Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) who are known as the Grey Wolves. Taking their brigade names from famous Ottoman Emperors such as Sultan Mehmed the Conqueror the UTA are also sometimes known as the Syrian Turkmen Brigades (STB).
The groups within Garvaghy Road operate now as simply brigades of the UTA. Under the direct command and control of Turkey.
Afrin Canton:
Centred around the city of Afrin this roughly 2,400kmsq (1,400 milesq) area directly borders Garvaghy Road to the west.
Historically an ethnically Kurdish area of Syria Afrin Canton has been under the control of first the YPG and then the SDF since the conflict began in 2011.
However in January 2018 Afrin Canton was invaded by Turkey and remains under the illegal occupation of the regular Turkish Armed Forces (TSK).
As within Garvaghy Road Turkey commands the Army of Conquest coalition within Afrin Canton. With the UTA being the dominant group in the coalition.
The Sudetenland:
This area sits directly south of Afrin Canton. It is centred around the city of Idlib.
It's name refers to Nazi Germany's annexation of Czechoslovakia's Sudetenland in 1938. Under the guise of a humanitarian intervention.
As with Garvaghy Road and Afrin Canton the Sudetenland is under the occupation of the Army of Conquest.
However unlike in Garvaghy Road and Afrin Canton within the Sudetenland Turkey does not officially command the Army of Conquest as part of the UTA.
Turkey has though established a network of small TSK bases or "Control Points" across the Sudetenland.
Central Syria:
The southern border of the Sudetenland marks the start of a vast area under the control of the Syrian government. It really includes all parts of the country which are not otherwise designated. I would refer to it simply as; "Syria" only that would cause more confusion by implying the other areas are not part of Syria.
On August 2nd (2/8/18) the Syrians declared victory in an operation to expand the Central Syria area to include the area around the Yarmouk River Basin in the south-west of the country.
Since then Syrian forces have been massing on the southern boundary of the Sudetenland in preparation of an offensive to liberate the area.
This looming Syrian operation has been met with some considerable international opposition.
On Friday (7/9/18) the leaders of Turkey, Russia and Iran met to discuss the upcoming operation in Iran. Turkish President/Prime Minister/Emperor Recep Tayyip Erdogan used this meeting to prevent the operation taking place. While the leaders of Russia and Iran used the meeting to support the operation.
How that meeting went for Erdogan can really be summed up by an exchange he had with Russian President Vladimir Putin at a televised press conference prior to the start of the meeting.
Erdogan called for a ceasefire across the entire Sudetenland region including both ISIL and Al Qaeda. Putin responded that it would not be possible to discuss such a thing because neither ISIL nor Al Qaeda were present at the meeting.
Erdogan then suggested they quickly contact Al Qaeda and ISIL to include them in the meeting. Giving the impression that Erdogan has the leaders of both Al Qaeda and ISIL on speed dial.
Although he was extremely isolated in the meeting with Russia and Iran Erdogan did enjoy support from the United Nations Security Council (UNSC). Under the Presidency of the US the UNSC called a special meeting on Syria for September 7th (7/9/18). To coincide with the trilateral meeting taking place in Iran.
Erdogan also enjoys deep support from Staffan de Mistura. The supposedly impartial UN Special Envoy on Syria.
Staffan de Mistura scheduled meetings with the Army of Conquest groups operating in the Sudetenland in Geneva, Switzerland yesterday (11/9/18). He also scheduled meetings between Turkey, Russia and Iran at the UN Headquarters in New York City, US for the same day.
This time Russia called a UNSC meeting on Syria to coincide with the meetings de Mistura had called. The thinking seeming to be that getting everyone to meet in New York City on September 11th might help Erdogan's supporters see the error of their ways.
Staffan de Mistura also intends to hold meetings with Egypt, France, Germany Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Britain and the US on September 14th (14/9/18).
Abandoning any pretence of impartiality de Mistura's objective behind this week of meetings is to defend the Sudetenland by pumping the breaks on Syria's operation. His calculation being that the operation will not be launched during the two week United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) which begins on September 18th (18/9/18).
In drawing up this plan de Mistura seems to have forgotten when Russia launched its military operations in Syria. During the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) of 2015.
The nations which support Erdogan on the annexation of the Sudetenland are easy to spot.
They're the ones who claimed they believe Britain's blaming of the Skripal poisoning on Russia on September 5th (5/9/18). In a statement of support released before the UNSC breifing on the matter.
They're also the exact same nations who promised to attack Syria if Chemical Weapons were used in the Sudetenland on August 22nd (22/8/18). Despite there being no suggestion that Chemical Weapons would be used.
Unfortunately just as these nations were putting their plan into motion they discovered that they do not enjoy widespread support. As a result things have gotten a little bumpy and a fair few tantrums have been thrown as they come to terms with the fact they are actually the isolated extremists.
This is particularly true of Britain and France. Their decision to promote terrorist propaganda in support of the Sudetenland triggered lonewolves to conduct stabbing attacks against them. On September 8th (8/9/18) and September 9th (9/9/18) respectively.
These bungled efforts to halt or delay the Syrian operation makes clear to me that Erdogan's supporters really have no understanding of the situation in the Sudetenland.
Not least because the refer to the area as; "Idlib" and talk about an; "All Out Offensive." In an effort to compare the situation to the operation in the winter of 2016 to liberate just the eastern side of Aleppo City.
The Sudetenland is certainly much larger than the eastern side of Aleppo City. It is much larger than Idlib City. It is larger even than Idlib Province.
The Northern boundary of the Sudetenland is really the; "Atmeh-Salwa Access Area." This stretches from a TSK base in the town of Atmeh at the base of Ghazal Mountain on the border with Turkey in the west to another TSK base in the Rashadin District of Aleppo City in the east. A distance of around 30km (20 miles).
The TSK base at Atmeh is within Idlib Province. However with Aleppo City being the capital of Aleppo Province the TSK base in the Rashadin District is most certainly in Aleppo Province.
The Eastern boundary of the Sudetenland stretches south from the TSK base in Rashadin District to a TSK base in Lataminah. A distance of around 105km (60 miles).
Sitting around 20km (13 miles) north-west of Hama City - the capital of Hama Province - Lataminah is firmly within Hama Province.
The Southern boundary of the Sudetenland continues across Hama Province from the TSK base at Lataminah to Qalat Madiq. Adjacent to the Ancient City of Apamea. A distance of around 25km (15 miles). However this line is jagged so the town of Kernaz is under Syrian control while the town of Kafr Zita is not.
The South-Western boundary of the Sudetenland runs from Qalat Madiq to a point in the al-Ziyarah subdistrict just south-west of the Zeyzoun reservoir. Also in Hama Province. A distance of around 35km (20 miles).
The North-Western boundary of the Sudetenland stretches from al-Ziyarah subdistrict to the Syria/Turkey border within the Firinlik Forest. Specifically at Ardash Dagh Mountain. A distance of around 35km (20 miles).
Firinlik Forest and Ardash Dagh Mountain sit within Syria's Latakia Province.
All told the Sudetenland covers around 5,000kmsq (3,000milesq). Spread across four Syrian provinces.
In that area you have more than 30 cities, towns or other key population centres.
Most notably Idlib City, the capital of Idlib Province. Jisr al-Shugour around 30km (20 miles) south-east of Ardash Dagh Mountain. Al-Eis on the eastern boundary around 30km (20 miles) south of Aleppo City. Saraqib around 25km (15 miles) south-west of al-Eis. Lataminah, Morek, Kafr Zita and Khan Sheikhoun on the southern boundary.
There are also the villages of Foua and Kafraya. Despite being just 10km (6 miles) outside the centre of Idlib City these villages have remained loyal to the Syrian government throughout the conflict. Their residents have been held hostage despite numerous agreements to free them.
Alongside the formal population centres the Sudetenland is also home to around a dozen camps for Internally Displaced People (IDP). Some run by terror groups. However the majority of these are located close to the northern boundary of the Sudetenland. In and around the Atmeh-Salwa Access Area and the Bab al-Hawa border crossing with Turkey.
Separating this populated areas you have vast unpopulated areas such as farms and scrubland. Under the laws of war it is in these areas the occupiers are obligated to make their stand.
In short the Sudetenland is too large to liberate in a single all out offensive.
If for no other reason than necessity different areas will have to come under attack at different times. It is standard practice for the Syrians to establish humanitarian corridors to allow civilians to flee areas of fighting.
If the occupiers break with their usual policy and actually allow people to use those humanitarian corridors it should be very easy for civilians to avoid the majority of the fighting.
So the Erdogan supporters who are warning of an; "All Out Offensive in Idlib" are even lying to you about that.
At around 17:30 on 12/9/18 (UK date) I will pick this up later. Probably tomorrow.
Edited at around 16:00 on 13/9/18 (UK date) to add;
The Sudetenland is currently under the occupation of the Army of Conquest/Jaish al-Fatah (JAF) coalition.
The largest faction, particularly in the Sudetenland, is Al Qaeda/The Base. Their affiliate within Syria is known as Jabhat al-Nusra/The Support Front. Given their high public profile I hope I don't need to explain further who Al Qaeda are.
The second sizable faction with the Army of Conquest are the Army of Islam/Jaish al-Islam (JAI). They are a particularly vicious group who consider ISIL to be far too moderate and have executed members of ISIL accordingly.
The Army of Islam committed genocide against Syria's Druze population in the Golan Heights area in 2015. They also attempted to commit a further genocide against the Druze in the Golan Heights in 2017 but were stopped.
While occupying east Aleppo City the Army of Islam routinely used Chemical Weapons against the SDF. Something the Army of Islam have openly admitted to.
The Army of Islam presence in the Sudetenland has increased significantly following their retreat their after the liberation of East Ghouta. While occupying East Ghouta the Army of Islam placed civilians in cages and put them on roof tops to act as human shields against airstrikes.
The third sizable faction within the Army of Conquest are the Army of Glory/Jaish al-Izza (AoG). They were part of the US' Train & Equip program under former President Obama. This saw them receive anti-tank weapons such as the 9K11 Fagot and the BGM-71 TOW. Along with Man Portable Air Defence (MANPAD) systems such as the 9K38 Iglas and the Mistral.
The fourth sizable faction within the Army of Conquest are the Movement of Nour al-Din al-Zinki/Harakat Nour al-Din al-Zinki (Nour al-Zinki). As with the Army of Glory they were part of the US' Train & Equip program under former President Obama. Receiving anti-tank weapons such as the BGM-71 TOW.
Nour al-Zinki retreated to the Sudetenland following the liberation of the eastern side of Aleppo City. There they were famous for beheading children, executing homosexuals by throwing them from tall buildings and kidnapping journalists for sale to ISIL.
The fifth sizable faction within the Army of Conquest are the Movement of the Freemen of the Levant/Harakat Ahrar ar-Sham al-Islamiyya (Ahrar al-Sham). However their influence in the Sudetenland has decreased as the Army of Islam's has increased.
The Army of Conquest also includes the UTA along with small fragments of the long defunct FSA such as the 1st Coastal Division. Although as within Garvaghy Road and Afrin Canton these now function as effectively brigades of the UTA.
There is also a small ISIL presence in the Sudetenland under the formal protection of the Army of Conquest.
As journalists have been visiting the Sudetenland the Army of Conquest have been making a big show of arresting suspected members of ISIL. However they seem to simply be moderate rivals. Known members of ISIL keep turning up within the ranks of the Army of Conquest.
Certainly since the start of the Astana Process on Syria the presence of Al Qaeda within the Army of Conquest has been a significant issue. There has long been a question of whether ceasefires which exclude Al Qaeda also exclude their partners in the Army of Conquest coalition.
This has led to a long process of giving the impression that Al Qaeda is not a member of the Army of Conquest.
One part of this process has involved Al Qaeda in Syria changing their name from; "The Support Front/Jabhat al-Nusra to; "The Organisation for the Liberation of the Levant/Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS)."
The second part of the process has involved the other elements of the Army of Conquest referring to themselves as; "The Front for the Liberation of Syria/Jabhat Tahrir al-Suriya (JTS)."
Obviously the difference between HTS and JTS was not clear enough to convince anyone.
So on August 1st (1/8/18) the JTS element of the Army of Conquest announced they would be referring to themselves as; "The National Liberation Front/Jabhat Tahrir al-Watania (JTW). This is widely seen as a precursor to them being formally absorbed into the UTA.
The division between Al Qaeda and the wider Army of Conquest exists only on paper.
In October 2017 Al Qaeda and the JTS element of the Army of Conquest forgot that they supposed to be convincing everyone they were separate groups. Along with ISIL they launched a joint offensive alongside ISIL. By March 2018 this saw them lose control of the entire al-Hass Plateau which until then had made up the eastern boundary of the Sudetenland.
In mid-March 2018 Al Qaeda and the JTS element of the Army of Conquest again forgot that they supposed to be convincing everyone they were separate groups. They launched the combined; "Wrath of Ghouta" offensive in a effort to continue their occupation of East Ghouta by dividing Syria's forces. That offensive was repelled in the space of about a day.
As recently as last week senior Al Qaeda figures have been openly discussing the longstanding plan for them to be formally absorbed into the UTA.
With there being no division between Al Qaeda and the wider Army of Conquest it is simply not possible to say which areas of the Sudetenland are under Al Qaeda occupation and which are not.
However broadly speaking you can draw a diagonal line from the Zeyzoun reservoir to Aleppo City. Everything to the North-West of that line is under absolute Al Qaeda control. The areas to the South-East of the line are under the control of the wider Army of Conquest.
There is a small pocket of Nour al-Zinki around Aleppo City which they used to occupy. Likewise much of the eastern boundary of the Sudetenland, such as Saraqib, is under absolute Al Qaeda control. The southern boundary around Lataminah, Morek, Kafr Zita and Khan Sheikhoun is primarily under the control of the Army of Glory and Ahrar al-Sham.
Then there is the town of Jisr al-Shugour. This was captured by the Army of Conquest in the spring of 2015 in a coordinated, joint offensive with ISIL. The Army of Conquest seized Jisr al-Shugour while ISIL seized Palmyra.
Jisr al-Shugour is currently under the occupation of the Turkistan Islamist Party (TiP). Rather than being a Syrian affiliate they are original 9/11-era Al Qaeda.
Ethnically Turkish their focus is creating an Islamic State in the area they consider Turkistan. This is made up of China's Xinjiang Province and the nations of Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan.
The TiP were recently responsible for the killing of two American along with one Swiss and one Dutch tourists in Tajikistan. The government of Tajikistan quickly blamed the attack on their political rivals and their Iranian backers. However as the 2017 Reina Nightclub attack showed there is a persistent problem of Chinese Islamists travelling to Syria on genuine Tajik and Krgyzk passports.
In preparation for a Sudetenland offensive Erdogan apologists Human Rights Watch (HRW) have suddenly decided to take up the TiP's cause by focusing on China's treatment of ethnically Turkish Muslim in Xinjiang Province.
17:35 on 13/9/18 (UK date).
Shangri-La, Garvaghy Road, Afrin Canton, the Sudetenland and Central Syria.
Shangri-La:
This is under the control of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF/QSD).
The largest element of the SDF coalition is the Syrian Kurdish People's Protection Units (YPG). They operate alongside Assyrian/Syriac Christian, Turkmen and Arab Muslim forces.
The Arab element which makes up around 50% of the SDF is comprised of both elements of the long defunct Free Syrian Army (FSA) and local tribes indigenous to north-eastern Syria.
The SDF also contains a small International Brigade made up of foreign volunteers. They are supposedly supported by the US-led coalition; Combined Joint Task Force: Operation Inherent Resolve (CJTFOIR) both with air power and Special Operations Forces (SOF's).
The Shangri-La area is essentially everything to the North-East of the Euphrates River. With the exception of a roughly 35km (20 mile) stretch of towns and villages on the north bank of the Euphrates between Hajin and Baghuz Thatani. This area remains under the control of the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL).
Yesterday (11/9/18) the SDF announced the start of an operation to liberate Hajin. At this early stage there is little indication of what their exact strategy is or of any progress.
Garvaghy Road:
This sits directly to the west of Shangri-La where the Euphrates River enters Syria from Turkey. It's stretches roughly 100km (60 miles) from the Euphrates to the towns of Kilis/Azaz.
It was invaded by Turkey in August 2016 and remains under the illegal occupation of the regular Turkish Armed Forces (TSK). Within Garvaghy Road Turkey commands a coalition of Islamist armed groups known as the Army of Conquest/Jaish al-Fatah (JAF).
The dominant group within the Army of Conquest in the Garvaghy Road area is the United Turkmen Army (UTA).
The UTA are formed out of the paramilitary wing of the Turkish Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) who are known as the Grey Wolves. Taking their brigade names from famous Ottoman Emperors such as Sultan Mehmed the Conqueror the UTA are also sometimes known as the Syrian Turkmen Brigades (STB).
The groups within Garvaghy Road operate now as simply brigades of the UTA. Under the direct command and control of Turkey.
Afrin Canton:
Centred around the city of Afrin this roughly 2,400kmsq (1,400 milesq) area directly borders Garvaghy Road to the west.
Historically an ethnically Kurdish area of Syria Afrin Canton has been under the control of first the YPG and then the SDF since the conflict began in 2011.
However in January 2018 Afrin Canton was invaded by Turkey and remains under the illegal occupation of the regular Turkish Armed Forces (TSK).
As within Garvaghy Road Turkey commands the Army of Conquest coalition within Afrin Canton. With the UTA being the dominant group in the coalition.
The Sudetenland:
This area sits directly south of Afrin Canton. It is centred around the city of Idlib.
It's name refers to Nazi Germany's annexation of Czechoslovakia's Sudetenland in 1938. Under the guise of a humanitarian intervention.
As with Garvaghy Road and Afrin Canton the Sudetenland is under the occupation of the Army of Conquest.
However unlike in Garvaghy Road and Afrin Canton within the Sudetenland Turkey does not officially command the Army of Conquest as part of the UTA.
Turkey has though established a network of small TSK bases or "Control Points" across the Sudetenland.
Central Syria:
The southern border of the Sudetenland marks the start of a vast area under the control of the Syrian government. It really includes all parts of the country which are not otherwise designated. I would refer to it simply as; "Syria" only that would cause more confusion by implying the other areas are not part of Syria.
On August 2nd (2/8/18) the Syrians declared victory in an operation to expand the Central Syria area to include the area around the Yarmouk River Basin in the south-west of the country.
Since then Syrian forces have been massing on the southern boundary of the Sudetenland in preparation of an offensive to liberate the area.
This looming Syrian operation has been met with some considerable international opposition.
On Friday (7/9/18) the leaders of Turkey, Russia and Iran met to discuss the upcoming operation in Iran. Turkish President/Prime Minister/Emperor Recep Tayyip Erdogan used this meeting to prevent the operation taking place. While the leaders of Russia and Iran used the meeting to support the operation.
How that meeting went for Erdogan can really be summed up by an exchange he had with Russian President Vladimir Putin at a televised press conference prior to the start of the meeting.
Erdogan called for a ceasefire across the entire Sudetenland region including both ISIL and Al Qaeda. Putin responded that it would not be possible to discuss such a thing because neither ISIL nor Al Qaeda were present at the meeting.
Erdogan then suggested they quickly contact Al Qaeda and ISIL to include them in the meeting. Giving the impression that Erdogan has the leaders of both Al Qaeda and ISIL on speed dial.
Although he was extremely isolated in the meeting with Russia and Iran Erdogan did enjoy support from the United Nations Security Council (UNSC). Under the Presidency of the US the UNSC called a special meeting on Syria for September 7th (7/9/18). To coincide with the trilateral meeting taking place in Iran.
Erdogan also enjoys deep support from Staffan de Mistura. The supposedly impartial UN Special Envoy on Syria.
Staffan de Mistura scheduled meetings with the Army of Conquest groups operating in the Sudetenland in Geneva, Switzerland yesterday (11/9/18). He also scheduled meetings between Turkey, Russia and Iran at the UN Headquarters in New York City, US for the same day.
This time Russia called a UNSC meeting on Syria to coincide with the meetings de Mistura had called. The thinking seeming to be that getting everyone to meet in New York City on September 11th might help Erdogan's supporters see the error of their ways.
Staffan de Mistura also intends to hold meetings with Egypt, France, Germany Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Britain and the US on September 14th (14/9/18).
Abandoning any pretence of impartiality de Mistura's objective behind this week of meetings is to defend the Sudetenland by pumping the breaks on Syria's operation. His calculation being that the operation will not be launched during the two week United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) which begins on September 18th (18/9/18).
In drawing up this plan de Mistura seems to have forgotten when Russia launched its military operations in Syria. During the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) of 2015.
The nations which support Erdogan on the annexation of the Sudetenland are easy to spot.
They're the ones who claimed they believe Britain's blaming of the Skripal poisoning on Russia on September 5th (5/9/18). In a statement of support released before the UNSC breifing on the matter.
They're also the exact same nations who promised to attack Syria if Chemical Weapons were used in the Sudetenland on August 22nd (22/8/18). Despite there being no suggestion that Chemical Weapons would be used.
Unfortunately just as these nations were putting their plan into motion they discovered that they do not enjoy widespread support. As a result things have gotten a little bumpy and a fair few tantrums have been thrown as they come to terms with the fact they are actually the isolated extremists.
This is particularly true of Britain and France. Their decision to promote terrorist propaganda in support of the Sudetenland triggered lonewolves to conduct stabbing attacks against them. On September 8th (8/9/18) and September 9th (9/9/18) respectively.
These bungled efforts to halt or delay the Syrian operation makes clear to me that Erdogan's supporters really have no understanding of the situation in the Sudetenland.
Not least because the refer to the area as; "Idlib" and talk about an; "All Out Offensive." In an effort to compare the situation to the operation in the winter of 2016 to liberate just the eastern side of Aleppo City.
The Sudetenland is certainly much larger than the eastern side of Aleppo City. It is much larger than Idlib City. It is larger even than Idlib Province.
The Northern boundary of the Sudetenland is really the; "Atmeh-Salwa Access Area." This stretches from a TSK base in the town of Atmeh at the base of Ghazal Mountain on the border with Turkey in the west to another TSK base in the Rashadin District of Aleppo City in the east. A distance of around 30km (20 miles).
The TSK base at Atmeh is within Idlib Province. However with Aleppo City being the capital of Aleppo Province the TSK base in the Rashadin District is most certainly in Aleppo Province.
The Eastern boundary of the Sudetenland stretches south from the TSK base in Rashadin District to a TSK base in Lataminah. A distance of around 105km (60 miles).
Sitting around 20km (13 miles) north-west of Hama City - the capital of Hama Province - Lataminah is firmly within Hama Province.
The Southern boundary of the Sudetenland continues across Hama Province from the TSK base at Lataminah to Qalat Madiq. Adjacent to the Ancient City of Apamea. A distance of around 25km (15 miles). However this line is jagged so the town of Kernaz is under Syrian control while the town of Kafr Zita is not.
The South-Western boundary of the Sudetenland runs from Qalat Madiq to a point in the al-Ziyarah subdistrict just south-west of the Zeyzoun reservoir. Also in Hama Province. A distance of around 35km (20 miles).
The North-Western boundary of the Sudetenland stretches from al-Ziyarah subdistrict to the Syria/Turkey border within the Firinlik Forest. Specifically at Ardash Dagh Mountain. A distance of around 35km (20 miles).
Firinlik Forest and Ardash Dagh Mountain sit within Syria's Latakia Province.
All told the Sudetenland covers around 5,000kmsq (3,000milesq). Spread across four Syrian provinces.
In that area you have more than 30 cities, towns or other key population centres.
Most notably Idlib City, the capital of Idlib Province. Jisr al-Shugour around 30km (20 miles) south-east of Ardash Dagh Mountain. Al-Eis on the eastern boundary around 30km (20 miles) south of Aleppo City. Saraqib around 25km (15 miles) south-west of al-Eis. Lataminah, Morek, Kafr Zita and Khan Sheikhoun on the southern boundary.
There are also the villages of Foua and Kafraya. Despite being just 10km (6 miles) outside the centre of Idlib City these villages have remained loyal to the Syrian government throughout the conflict. Their residents have been held hostage despite numerous agreements to free them.
Alongside the formal population centres the Sudetenland is also home to around a dozen camps for Internally Displaced People (IDP). Some run by terror groups. However the majority of these are located close to the northern boundary of the Sudetenland. In and around the Atmeh-Salwa Access Area and the Bab al-Hawa border crossing with Turkey.
Separating this populated areas you have vast unpopulated areas such as farms and scrubland. Under the laws of war it is in these areas the occupiers are obligated to make their stand.
In short the Sudetenland is too large to liberate in a single all out offensive.
If for no other reason than necessity different areas will have to come under attack at different times. It is standard practice for the Syrians to establish humanitarian corridors to allow civilians to flee areas of fighting.
If the occupiers break with their usual policy and actually allow people to use those humanitarian corridors it should be very easy for civilians to avoid the majority of the fighting.
So the Erdogan supporters who are warning of an; "All Out Offensive in Idlib" are even lying to you about that.
At around 17:30 on 12/9/18 (UK date) I will pick this up later. Probably tomorrow.
Edited at around 16:00 on 13/9/18 (UK date) to add;
The Sudetenland is currently under the occupation of the Army of Conquest/Jaish al-Fatah (JAF) coalition.
The largest faction, particularly in the Sudetenland, is Al Qaeda/The Base. Their affiliate within Syria is known as Jabhat al-Nusra/The Support Front. Given their high public profile I hope I don't need to explain further who Al Qaeda are.
The second sizable faction with the Army of Conquest are the Army of Islam/Jaish al-Islam (JAI). They are a particularly vicious group who consider ISIL to be far too moderate and have executed members of ISIL accordingly.
The Army of Islam committed genocide against Syria's Druze population in the Golan Heights area in 2015. They also attempted to commit a further genocide against the Druze in the Golan Heights in 2017 but were stopped.
While occupying east Aleppo City the Army of Islam routinely used Chemical Weapons against the SDF. Something the Army of Islam have openly admitted to.
The Army of Islam presence in the Sudetenland has increased significantly following their retreat their after the liberation of East Ghouta. While occupying East Ghouta the Army of Islam placed civilians in cages and put them on roof tops to act as human shields against airstrikes.
The third sizable faction within the Army of Conquest are the Army of Glory/Jaish al-Izza (AoG). They were part of the US' Train & Equip program under former President Obama. This saw them receive anti-tank weapons such as the 9K11 Fagot and the BGM-71 TOW. Along with Man Portable Air Defence (MANPAD) systems such as the 9K38 Iglas and the Mistral.
The fourth sizable faction within the Army of Conquest are the Movement of Nour al-Din al-Zinki/Harakat Nour al-Din al-Zinki (Nour al-Zinki). As with the Army of Glory they were part of the US' Train & Equip program under former President Obama. Receiving anti-tank weapons such as the BGM-71 TOW.
Nour al-Zinki retreated to the Sudetenland following the liberation of the eastern side of Aleppo City. There they were famous for beheading children, executing homosexuals by throwing them from tall buildings and kidnapping journalists for sale to ISIL.
The fifth sizable faction within the Army of Conquest are the Movement of the Freemen of the Levant/Harakat Ahrar ar-Sham al-Islamiyya (Ahrar al-Sham). However their influence in the Sudetenland has decreased as the Army of Islam's has increased.
The Army of Conquest also includes the UTA along with small fragments of the long defunct FSA such as the 1st Coastal Division. Although as within Garvaghy Road and Afrin Canton these now function as effectively brigades of the UTA.
There is also a small ISIL presence in the Sudetenland under the formal protection of the Army of Conquest.
As journalists have been visiting the Sudetenland the Army of Conquest have been making a big show of arresting suspected members of ISIL. However they seem to simply be moderate rivals. Known members of ISIL keep turning up within the ranks of the Army of Conquest.
Certainly since the start of the Astana Process on Syria the presence of Al Qaeda within the Army of Conquest has been a significant issue. There has long been a question of whether ceasefires which exclude Al Qaeda also exclude their partners in the Army of Conquest coalition.
This has led to a long process of giving the impression that Al Qaeda is not a member of the Army of Conquest.
One part of this process has involved Al Qaeda in Syria changing their name from; "The Support Front/Jabhat al-Nusra to; "The Organisation for the Liberation of the Levant/Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS)."
The second part of the process has involved the other elements of the Army of Conquest referring to themselves as; "The Front for the Liberation of Syria/Jabhat Tahrir al-Suriya (JTS)."
Obviously the difference between HTS and JTS was not clear enough to convince anyone.
So on August 1st (1/8/18) the JTS element of the Army of Conquest announced they would be referring to themselves as; "The National Liberation Front/Jabhat Tahrir al-Watania (JTW). This is widely seen as a precursor to them being formally absorbed into the UTA.
The division between Al Qaeda and the wider Army of Conquest exists only on paper.
In October 2017 Al Qaeda and the JTS element of the Army of Conquest forgot that they supposed to be convincing everyone they were separate groups. Along with ISIL they launched a joint offensive alongside ISIL. By March 2018 this saw them lose control of the entire al-Hass Plateau which until then had made up the eastern boundary of the Sudetenland.
In mid-March 2018 Al Qaeda and the JTS element of the Army of Conquest again forgot that they supposed to be convincing everyone they were separate groups. They launched the combined; "Wrath of Ghouta" offensive in a effort to continue their occupation of East Ghouta by dividing Syria's forces. That offensive was repelled in the space of about a day.
As recently as last week senior Al Qaeda figures have been openly discussing the longstanding plan for them to be formally absorbed into the UTA.
With there being no division between Al Qaeda and the wider Army of Conquest it is simply not possible to say which areas of the Sudetenland are under Al Qaeda occupation and which are not.
However broadly speaking you can draw a diagonal line from the Zeyzoun reservoir to Aleppo City. Everything to the North-West of that line is under absolute Al Qaeda control. The areas to the South-East of the line are under the control of the wider Army of Conquest.
There is a small pocket of Nour al-Zinki around Aleppo City which they used to occupy. Likewise much of the eastern boundary of the Sudetenland, such as Saraqib, is under absolute Al Qaeda control. The southern boundary around Lataminah, Morek, Kafr Zita and Khan Sheikhoun is primarily under the control of the Army of Glory and Ahrar al-Sham.
Then there is the town of Jisr al-Shugour. This was captured by the Army of Conquest in the spring of 2015 in a coordinated, joint offensive with ISIL. The Army of Conquest seized Jisr al-Shugour while ISIL seized Palmyra.
Jisr al-Shugour is currently under the occupation of the Turkistan Islamist Party (TiP). Rather than being a Syrian affiliate they are original 9/11-era Al Qaeda.
Ethnically Turkish their focus is creating an Islamic State in the area they consider Turkistan. This is made up of China's Xinjiang Province and the nations of Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan.
The TiP were recently responsible for the killing of two American along with one Swiss and one Dutch tourists in Tajikistan. The government of Tajikistan quickly blamed the attack on their political rivals and their Iranian backers. However as the 2017 Reina Nightclub attack showed there is a persistent problem of Chinese Islamists travelling to Syria on genuine Tajik and Krgyzk passports.
In preparation for a Sudetenland offensive Erdogan apologists Human Rights Watch (HRW) have suddenly decided to take up the TiP's cause by focusing on China's treatment of ethnically Turkish Muslim in Xinjiang Province.
17:35 on 13/9/18 (UK date).
Thursday, 6 September 2018
Oh Dear. Britain's Farted.
On March 4th 2018 (4/3/18) Russian born British spy Sergei Skripal along with his daughter Yulia was taken ill in the British city of Salisbury.
On March 5th (5/8/18) a British police officer, Nick Bailey, investigating the incident was also taken ill.
On March 11th (11/3/18) British Conservative Party MP Thomas Tugendhat made a series of public appearances demanding that the poisonings be blamed on Russia.
This is hardly surprising because Tugendhat has received large amounts of money from the lobbyist Bill Browder to get a piece of legislation called the Magnitsky Amendment passed. To earn his money Tugendhat immediately leaps on anything that might help him pass the legislation Browder is paying for.
Tugendhat's actions though were highly premature. At that point Britain had not identified the poison used. Let alone identified potential suspects who might have administered the poison.
However Britain is currently led by a weak, minority government. Lacking a Parliamentary majority the Conservative Prime Minister Theresa May is effectively held to ransom by backbenchers such as Tugendhat.
So on March 12th (12/3/18) Prime Minister May did what Tugendhat ordered her and blamed Russia.
On March 14th (14/3/18) Britain did identify the poison used. It's findings were confirmed by the Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW) on April 12th (12/4/18).
This presented a huge problem for May, Tugendhat and Britain.
The poison used did not match reference samples taken from Russia's Shikhany-2 Chemical Weapons facility taken as part of its registration with the OPCW. Thus disproving the piece of intelligence May, Tugendhat and Britain had blame Russia.
By this point Britain had already led 27 nations in expelling at least 150 Russian diplomats as punishment for poisoning the Skripals.
This prompted British police to launch a frantic search to find just any Russian they could come even close to blaming.
Yesterday (5/9/18) British police released the efforts of that frantic search.
They identified two Russians - Alexander Petrov and Ruslan Boshirov - who they claim are the prime suspects. They also provided a timeline of the two men's movements around the time of the poisoning;
March 2nd (2/3/18).
The official explanation as to why no deaths occurred - put forth by both Britain and the OPCW - is that the poison had be left exposed to the elements, including rain. So had become degraded and lost its potency.
It is almost impossible to precisely calculate the effects of environmental factors on something as small as a door handle. Particularly if you didn't realise that you were supposed to be conducting an experiment at the time.
However for this level of degradation you are talking in terms of 6 to 12 hours rather than 1 to 2 hours. In cleaning up after the poisoning Britain estimated that functional environmental degradation will take a period of months if not years.
The last rainfall recording in Salisbury before the Skripals was taken ill occurred at 03:00 on March 4th (4/3/18). Therefore the poison would have had to be applied to the door handle before then.
According to the timeline provided by the police the only time these to men could have done this is between 13:50 and 16:45 on March 3rd (3/4/18). However this does not fit with the police's account of the Skripal's movements.
Yulia Skripal arrived at London's Heathrow Airport at 14:40 on March 3rd (3/4/18) where she was met by her father. They then drove to his home in Salisbury. The exact time the arrived is not known. However the typical journey from Heathrow Airport to Salisbury is 90 minutes. That means they arrived at around 16:10.
If the poison had been applied to the door handle at that point they would have immediately come into contact with it. Meaning that they would have become ill no more than a few hours later. Long before the rain at 03:00 the following day.
On March 4th (4/3/18) both Skripals left the home at around 09:15 returning around lunch time. At 13:30 the left the home for a second time. Arriving at the Sainsbury carpark in the town centre at 13:40.
If as the police claim the poison was applied between 12:00 and 13:00 then the Skripals would have come into contact with it no later than 13:30. That would give the poison absolutely no time to be degraded by the weather.
Thus disproving Britain's claim that it did not cause death because it had been degraded by the weather. While raising the question of why this freshly applied poison took more than three hours to take effect.
Therefore what the police have done with their investigation is prove that these two men could not have poisoned the Skripals. The police have provided them with an alibi showing that they were in a entirely different city 125km (80 miles) away.
Then of course there is the subsequent poisoning of Charles Rowley and Dawn Sturgess on June 30th (30/6/18). On Tuesday (4/9/18) the OPCW confirmed the pair were poisoned by the exact same poison used in March.
Despite their extensive investigation British police can find no indication that either Petrov or Boshirov returned to the UK after March 4th (4/3/18). Providing them with the even stronger alibi of not even being in the same country.
You would think that having proved these two men innocent the British police would start looking for the people who actually were responsible. You would certainly hope they would stop investigating the pair.
It would almost be beyond belief that they would publicly accuse the men on the crime and pursue a prosecution.
Unfortunately launching malicious prosecutions when there is clear evidence of innocence is a common practice within the British legal system.
In the same period as the Skripal investigation there has been a growing scandal in Britain as a number of high profile rape cases have collapsed. The Liam Allen case being perhaps the most high profile.
In the course of investigating each of these cases the police uncovered clear evidence that not only had the men not committed rape that in fact no rape had occurred.
However the police and the Crown Prosecution Service (CPS) decided to prosecute the cases anyway. They even went so far as to break the law by hiding this evidence of innocence from the defendants.
In the course of this scandal it emerged that 916 of these cases had occurred in 2016. A 70% increase from 2015.
In April 2018 the Director of Public Prosecutions (DPP), Alison Saunders was told that her contract of employment would not be renewed when it expires in October 2018. The type of announcement which no doubt made her grateful she wasn't tied into a longer contract.
One explanation that has been put forward for this situation is that the police were simply inventing rape case to support the claims made by feminist activists and politicians.
This particular British constituency was probably on most prominent display on June 15th (15/6/18). This saw the proposed Voyeurism Offences Bill - sometimes referred to as the; "Upskirting Law" - defeated by the objections of a single Conservative MP. Christopher Chope.
Chope's objection was based not on the law itself but by the manner it was introduced. It was introduced as a private members bill. This Parliamentary loophole allows laws to be sneaked onto the statute books without the proper procedure of committee, review, amendment and vote.
The Voyeurism Offences Bill was reintroduced yesterday (5/9/18). Just after the police's Skripal announcement. However having had three months to review it the bill's sponsored decided they needed to amend it.
This practise of malicious prosecution is most commonly used in Britain to persecute political activists and dissidents. Although they rarely result in conviction they can drag on for years being very expensive and stressful for the target.
One of the most high profile examples is the Brighton based; "Smash EDO" campaign directed at the EDO MBM arms factory. This is something Anna Campbell who in March 2018 was killed fighting with the SDF in Syria would have been very familiar with.
The reason Smash EDO has such a high profile is that the police targeted them under the 1997 Protection from Harassment Act. This was passed in the name of feminism in order to protect women from stalking and domestic violence. It was almost immediately used to persecute political protesters.
The way that the 1997 Protection from Harassment Act has been abused by Britain's police and Courts is exactly why all laws, including the Voyeurism Offences Bill need to go through the proper Parliamentary procedure.
Not least due to my peripheral involvement with Smash EDO I have encountered many of this type of malicious prosecution. So many in fact that they've started to blur into one.
For example I remember reading about Sergei Skripal's initial arrest in Russia at the time.
I read about this in a Courthouse waiting for a trial to begin. However for the life of me I cannot remember which Courthouse or what the charge was. Although given my links to Salisbury I'm starting to think it might be worth the effort of checking my records.
Britain is currently a member of the European Union (EU). As part of that membership Britain must agree to abide by a range of what are considered; "Common European Values." Chiefly laid out in the European Convention on Human Rights (ECHR). These include the right to conscience, expression, assembly and justice.
In short you are expressly forbidden from using the legal system to persecute political protesters and dissidents. Such as through malicious prosecution.
So over the years Britain's practice of persecuting political protesters and dissidents has caused considerable tension between it and the EU.
These tensions are called into sharp focus now Britain is leaving the EU - the "Brexit."
As part of a post-Brexit deal Britain is proposing the idea of a so-called; "Common Rule Book." Essentially Britain and the EU agree to voluntarily follow the same rules.
This suggestion by Britain has caused quite some amusement. After all Britain was unable to follow the EU rules when it was legally obligated to do so.
Despite Britain's decision to pursue criminal charges against Petrov or Boshirov the have opted not to seek their extradition from Russia. The common practice in cases such as this.
The reason for this is that an extradition request would result in Petrov or Boshirov being arrested and put before a Judge.
It doesn't take a genius to work out what any Judge is going to do when presented with a case where the prosecution are providing clear evidence of the defendants innocence.
17:25 on 6/9/18 (UK date).
Edited at around 14:20 on 13/9/18 (UK date) to add;
The police also claim to have found traces of the poison in the men's hotel room. Obviously I need more detail on that before I can comment in detail.
However there will have been a period of time between the men vacating the room and it being first identified by the police and then searched. This creates a significant chain of evidence problem.
During this time there will likely have been multiple other occupants of and visitors to that room. Providing ample opportunity for someone to plant those traces. Particularly if that person had links to the intelligence services.
Meanwhile there has been this peculiar case of John and Susan Cooper. Two British citizens who died on August 21st (21/8/18) in their hotel room in Hurghada on the southern part of Egypt's Sinai Peninsula.
Britons like all other nationalities die every single day. Some of them even die in foreign countries while they are on holiday or travelling for work. However it is normally quite obvious why they have died.
British tourists in particular have a reputation for getting drunk and falling off balconies. Other common causes such as food poisoning also have obvious, easy to detect symptoms like several days of severe vomiting and diarrhoea. Carbon Monoxide poisoning causes a signature reddening of the skin.
What has made the Cooper case strange is that it involves none of the normal indicators that can be picked up by non-medical professionals. Even if they don't automatically know what those symptoms indicate.
The official cause of death has been given as respiratory and cardiac arrest. These are the two most commonly used indicators of death. So it's a bit like saying the people have died because they are dead.
One of many things that can cause respiratory and cardiac arrest are Nerve Agents. This is an uncommon cause but one that comes up a lot in discussions about nerve agents.
Referring to a nerve agent does not automatically mean a military grade chemical weapon.
One theory that has been put forward for the Cooper's death is that they were poisoned by the air conditioner in their room. Certain types of Freon - the chemical in air conditioners - can function as a nerve agent. However to receive a lethal dose you will pretty much have to swim in a lake of the stuff.
The fact that nerve agents are so widely available and used has always significantly undermined Britain's claim that only Russia could be responsible for the Skripal poisoning. VX was originally invented as a pesticide. Novichok was developed specifically because it could be very easily synthesised from two commonly used pesticides.
Due to their potency the use of these Organophosphate pesticides are strongly discouraged within Europe and elsewhere. The import or export is banned however their use is not.
Alongside Organophosphates there is another group of Acetylcholinesterase Inhibitors known as Carbamates. These were tested as potential Chemical Weapons by the US and others in the 1940's and again in the 1960's.
Less effective than Organophosphates Carbamates continue to be widely used. Particularly outside of the US and Europe.
Egypt is of course closely linked to the ongoing conflict in Syria.
On June 30th 2012 Mohammad Morsi of the Muslim Brotherhood was sworn in as Egypt's President. Turkey's President/Prime Minister/Emperor marked the occasion by sending a Turkish warplane to invade Syrian airspace. The hope being it would be shot down providing Erdogan an excuse to invade and establish his new Ottoman Empire.
Following Morsi's overthrow in a popular uprising in 2013 the Islamist terror group Ansar Beit al-Maqdis (ABM) suddenly became extremely well funded and started calling themselves the Sinai Province of the Islamic State and the Levant (ISIL). They have conducted numerous terror attacks across the northern Sinai Peninsula.
Killing British tourists obviously threatens Egypt's tourist economy. A long standing objective of ABM. It also serves as a threat to Britain to support the Muslim Brotherhood or else.
I gather the career of Ahmet Uzumcu, the head of the OPCW has recently taken a similar trajectory to that of Britain's DPP.
15:00 on 13/9/18 (UK date).
Edited again at around 14:10 on 9/10/18 (UK date) to add;
It finally all clicked into place last night. Annoyingly about 5 minutes after I'd gone to bed.
Sergei Skripal was first arrested for spying for Britain in December 2004. However Britain did not confirm this until January 2006.
I first heard about this in Brighton Magistrates Court while awaiting a hearing in a drunken and disorderly case against me. Which carried a maximum penalty of six months imprisonment.
I remember the apparent ineptitude of the British intelligence services gave me a bit of a confidence boost.
Although that particular case was valid and I was eventually sentenced to a conditional discharge it shows how disruptive and time consuming malicious prosecutions can be for the target.
The initial arrest occurred in August 2005. Despite the hearings in January the case was not complete until June 2006. That is for a case involving one of the most simple misdemeanours on the law books. An offence that is normally dealt with rather like a traffic ticket.
Complex felony cases can drag on for years. Time the target of the prosecution often spends in prison on remand.
14:20 on 9/10/18 (UK date).
On March 5th (5/8/18) a British police officer, Nick Bailey, investigating the incident was also taken ill.
On March 11th (11/3/18) British Conservative Party MP Thomas Tugendhat made a series of public appearances demanding that the poisonings be blamed on Russia.
This is hardly surprising because Tugendhat has received large amounts of money from the lobbyist Bill Browder to get a piece of legislation called the Magnitsky Amendment passed. To earn his money Tugendhat immediately leaps on anything that might help him pass the legislation Browder is paying for.
Tugendhat's actions though were highly premature. At that point Britain had not identified the poison used. Let alone identified potential suspects who might have administered the poison.
However Britain is currently led by a weak, minority government. Lacking a Parliamentary majority the Conservative Prime Minister Theresa May is effectively held to ransom by backbenchers such as Tugendhat.
So on March 12th (12/3/18) Prime Minister May did what Tugendhat ordered her and blamed Russia.
On March 14th (14/3/18) Britain did identify the poison used. It's findings were confirmed by the Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW) on April 12th (12/4/18).
This presented a huge problem for May, Tugendhat and Britain.
The poison used did not match reference samples taken from Russia's Shikhany-2 Chemical Weapons facility taken as part of its registration with the OPCW. Thus disproving the piece of intelligence May, Tugendhat and Britain had blame Russia.
By this point Britain had already led 27 nations in expelling at least 150 Russian diplomats as punishment for poisoning the Skripals.
This prompted British police to launch a frantic search to find just any Russian they could come even close to blaming.
Yesterday (5/9/18) British police released the efforts of that frantic search.
They identified two Russians - Alexander Petrov and Ruslan Boshirov - who they claim are the prime suspects. They also provided a timeline of the two men's movements around the time of the poisoning;
March 2nd (2/3/18).
- 15:00 - The men arrive at London's Gatwick Airport.
- 17:40 - The men arrive at London's Victoria Railway station from Gatwick Airport.
- 18:00 - The men arrive at London's Waterloo Railway station from Victoria station and check into the near-by City Star Hotel.
- 11:45 - The men leave the hotel and board a train at Waterloo station bound for Salisbury.
- 14:25 - The men arrive at Salisbury Railway station.
- 16:05 - The men return to Salisbury station and board a train for London.
- 20:05 - The men arrive at Waterloo station and return to their hotel.
- 08:05 - The men again leave their hotel and board a train at Waterloo station.
- 11:48 - The men arrive at Salisbury station.
- 11:58 - The men are spotted on Wilton Road in Salisbury. Although unverified the police claim the men then travelled to Sergei Skripal's home on Christie Miller Road and applied the poison to his door handle. At some point between 12:00 and 13:00.
- 13:05 - The men are spotted on Fisherton Street in Salisbury.
- 13:50 - The men return to Salisbury station and board a train for London.
- 16:45 - The men arrive at Waterloo station and return to their hotel.
- 18:30 - The men return to Waterloo station and board a train for Heathrow Airport.
- 22:30 - The men leave depart London's Heathrow Airport aboard a scheduled flight for Moscow, Russia.
The official explanation as to why no deaths occurred - put forth by both Britain and the OPCW - is that the poison had be left exposed to the elements, including rain. So had become degraded and lost its potency.
It is almost impossible to precisely calculate the effects of environmental factors on something as small as a door handle. Particularly if you didn't realise that you were supposed to be conducting an experiment at the time.
However for this level of degradation you are talking in terms of 6 to 12 hours rather than 1 to 2 hours. In cleaning up after the poisoning Britain estimated that functional environmental degradation will take a period of months if not years.
The last rainfall recording in Salisbury before the Skripals was taken ill occurred at 03:00 on March 4th (4/3/18). Therefore the poison would have had to be applied to the door handle before then.
According to the timeline provided by the police the only time these to men could have done this is between 13:50 and 16:45 on March 3rd (3/4/18). However this does not fit with the police's account of the Skripal's movements.
Yulia Skripal arrived at London's Heathrow Airport at 14:40 on March 3rd (3/4/18) where she was met by her father. They then drove to his home in Salisbury. The exact time the arrived is not known. However the typical journey from Heathrow Airport to Salisbury is 90 minutes. That means they arrived at around 16:10.
If the poison had been applied to the door handle at that point they would have immediately come into contact with it. Meaning that they would have become ill no more than a few hours later. Long before the rain at 03:00 the following day.
On March 4th (4/3/18) both Skripals left the home at around 09:15 returning around lunch time. At 13:30 the left the home for a second time. Arriving at the Sainsbury carpark in the town centre at 13:40.
If as the police claim the poison was applied between 12:00 and 13:00 then the Skripals would have come into contact with it no later than 13:30. That would give the poison absolutely no time to be degraded by the weather.
Thus disproving Britain's claim that it did not cause death because it had been degraded by the weather. While raising the question of why this freshly applied poison took more than three hours to take effect.
Therefore what the police have done with their investigation is prove that these two men could not have poisoned the Skripals. The police have provided them with an alibi showing that they were in a entirely different city 125km (80 miles) away.
Then of course there is the subsequent poisoning of Charles Rowley and Dawn Sturgess on June 30th (30/6/18). On Tuesday (4/9/18) the OPCW confirmed the pair were poisoned by the exact same poison used in March.
Despite their extensive investigation British police can find no indication that either Petrov or Boshirov returned to the UK after March 4th (4/3/18). Providing them with the even stronger alibi of not even being in the same country.
You would think that having proved these two men innocent the British police would start looking for the people who actually were responsible. You would certainly hope they would stop investigating the pair.
It would almost be beyond belief that they would publicly accuse the men on the crime and pursue a prosecution.
Unfortunately launching malicious prosecutions when there is clear evidence of innocence is a common practice within the British legal system.
In the same period as the Skripal investigation there has been a growing scandal in Britain as a number of high profile rape cases have collapsed. The Liam Allen case being perhaps the most high profile.
In the course of investigating each of these cases the police uncovered clear evidence that not only had the men not committed rape that in fact no rape had occurred.
However the police and the Crown Prosecution Service (CPS) decided to prosecute the cases anyway. They even went so far as to break the law by hiding this evidence of innocence from the defendants.
In the course of this scandal it emerged that 916 of these cases had occurred in 2016. A 70% increase from 2015.
In April 2018 the Director of Public Prosecutions (DPP), Alison Saunders was told that her contract of employment would not be renewed when it expires in October 2018. The type of announcement which no doubt made her grateful she wasn't tied into a longer contract.
One explanation that has been put forward for this situation is that the police were simply inventing rape case to support the claims made by feminist activists and politicians.
This particular British constituency was probably on most prominent display on June 15th (15/6/18). This saw the proposed Voyeurism Offences Bill - sometimes referred to as the; "Upskirting Law" - defeated by the objections of a single Conservative MP. Christopher Chope.
Chope's objection was based not on the law itself but by the manner it was introduced. It was introduced as a private members bill. This Parliamentary loophole allows laws to be sneaked onto the statute books without the proper procedure of committee, review, amendment and vote.
The Voyeurism Offences Bill was reintroduced yesterday (5/9/18). Just after the police's Skripal announcement. However having had three months to review it the bill's sponsored decided they needed to amend it.
This practise of malicious prosecution is most commonly used in Britain to persecute political activists and dissidents. Although they rarely result in conviction they can drag on for years being very expensive and stressful for the target.
One of the most high profile examples is the Brighton based; "Smash EDO" campaign directed at the EDO MBM arms factory. This is something Anna Campbell who in March 2018 was killed fighting with the SDF in Syria would have been very familiar with.
The reason Smash EDO has such a high profile is that the police targeted them under the 1997 Protection from Harassment Act. This was passed in the name of feminism in order to protect women from stalking and domestic violence. It was almost immediately used to persecute political protesters.
The way that the 1997 Protection from Harassment Act has been abused by Britain's police and Courts is exactly why all laws, including the Voyeurism Offences Bill need to go through the proper Parliamentary procedure.
Not least due to my peripheral involvement with Smash EDO I have encountered many of this type of malicious prosecution. So many in fact that they've started to blur into one.
For example I remember reading about Sergei Skripal's initial arrest in Russia at the time.
I read about this in a Courthouse waiting for a trial to begin. However for the life of me I cannot remember which Courthouse or what the charge was. Although given my links to Salisbury I'm starting to think it might be worth the effort of checking my records.
Britain is currently a member of the European Union (EU). As part of that membership Britain must agree to abide by a range of what are considered; "Common European Values." Chiefly laid out in the European Convention on Human Rights (ECHR). These include the right to conscience, expression, assembly and justice.
In short you are expressly forbidden from using the legal system to persecute political protesters and dissidents. Such as through malicious prosecution.
So over the years Britain's practice of persecuting political protesters and dissidents has caused considerable tension between it and the EU.
These tensions are called into sharp focus now Britain is leaving the EU - the "Brexit."
As part of a post-Brexit deal Britain is proposing the idea of a so-called; "Common Rule Book." Essentially Britain and the EU agree to voluntarily follow the same rules.
This suggestion by Britain has caused quite some amusement. After all Britain was unable to follow the EU rules when it was legally obligated to do so.
Despite Britain's decision to pursue criminal charges against Petrov or Boshirov the have opted not to seek their extradition from Russia. The common practice in cases such as this.
The reason for this is that an extradition request would result in Petrov or Boshirov being arrested and put before a Judge.
It doesn't take a genius to work out what any Judge is going to do when presented with a case where the prosecution are providing clear evidence of the defendants innocence.
17:25 on 6/9/18 (UK date).
Edited at around 14:20 on 13/9/18 (UK date) to add;
The police also claim to have found traces of the poison in the men's hotel room. Obviously I need more detail on that before I can comment in detail.
However there will have been a period of time between the men vacating the room and it being first identified by the police and then searched. This creates a significant chain of evidence problem.
During this time there will likely have been multiple other occupants of and visitors to that room. Providing ample opportunity for someone to plant those traces. Particularly if that person had links to the intelligence services.
Meanwhile there has been this peculiar case of John and Susan Cooper. Two British citizens who died on August 21st (21/8/18) in their hotel room in Hurghada on the southern part of Egypt's Sinai Peninsula.
Britons like all other nationalities die every single day. Some of them even die in foreign countries while they are on holiday or travelling for work. However it is normally quite obvious why they have died.
British tourists in particular have a reputation for getting drunk and falling off balconies. Other common causes such as food poisoning also have obvious, easy to detect symptoms like several days of severe vomiting and diarrhoea. Carbon Monoxide poisoning causes a signature reddening of the skin.
What has made the Cooper case strange is that it involves none of the normal indicators that can be picked up by non-medical professionals. Even if they don't automatically know what those symptoms indicate.
The official cause of death has been given as respiratory and cardiac arrest. These are the two most commonly used indicators of death. So it's a bit like saying the people have died because they are dead.
One of many things that can cause respiratory and cardiac arrest are Nerve Agents. This is an uncommon cause but one that comes up a lot in discussions about nerve agents.
Referring to a nerve agent does not automatically mean a military grade chemical weapon.
One theory that has been put forward for the Cooper's death is that they were poisoned by the air conditioner in their room. Certain types of Freon - the chemical in air conditioners - can function as a nerve agent. However to receive a lethal dose you will pretty much have to swim in a lake of the stuff.
The fact that nerve agents are so widely available and used has always significantly undermined Britain's claim that only Russia could be responsible for the Skripal poisoning. VX was originally invented as a pesticide. Novichok was developed specifically because it could be very easily synthesised from two commonly used pesticides.
Due to their potency the use of these Organophosphate pesticides are strongly discouraged within Europe and elsewhere. The import or export is banned however their use is not.
Alongside Organophosphates there is another group of Acetylcholinesterase Inhibitors known as Carbamates. These were tested as potential Chemical Weapons by the US and others in the 1940's and again in the 1960's.
Less effective than Organophosphates Carbamates continue to be widely used. Particularly outside of the US and Europe.
Egypt is of course closely linked to the ongoing conflict in Syria.
On June 30th 2012 Mohammad Morsi of the Muslim Brotherhood was sworn in as Egypt's President. Turkey's President/Prime Minister/Emperor marked the occasion by sending a Turkish warplane to invade Syrian airspace. The hope being it would be shot down providing Erdogan an excuse to invade and establish his new Ottoman Empire.
Following Morsi's overthrow in a popular uprising in 2013 the Islamist terror group Ansar Beit al-Maqdis (ABM) suddenly became extremely well funded and started calling themselves the Sinai Province of the Islamic State and the Levant (ISIL). They have conducted numerous terror attacks across the northern Sinai Peninsula.
Killing British tourists obviously threatens Egypt's tourist economy. A long standing objective of ABM. It also serves as a threat to Britain to support the Muslim Brotherhood or else.
I gather the career of Ahmet Uzumcu, the head of the OPCW has recently taken a similar trajectory to that of Britain's DPP.
15:00 on 13/9/18 (UK date).
Edited again at around 14:10 on 9/10/18 (UK date) to add;
It finally all clicked into place last night. Annoyingly about 5 minutes after I'd gone to bed.
Sergei Skripal was first arrested for spying for Britain in December 2004. However Britain did not confirm this until January 2006.
I first heard about this in Brighton Magistrates Court while awaiting a hearing in a drunken and disorderly case against me. Which carried a maximum penalty of six months imprisonment.
I remember the apparent ineptitude of the British intelligence services gave me a bit of a confidence boost.
Although that particular case was valid and I was eventually sentenced to a conditional discharge it shows how disruptive and time consuming malicious prosecutions can be for the target.
The initial arrest occurred in August 2005. Despite the hearings in January the case was not complete until June 2006. That is for a case involving one of the most simple misdemeanours on the law books. An offence that is normally dealt with rather like a traffic ticket.
Complex felony cases can drag on for years. Time the target of the prosecution often spends in prison on remand.
14:20 on 9/10/18 (UK date).
Wednesday, 5 September 2018
Operation Featherweight: Month 50, Week 5, Day 2.
Within the current conflict in Syria there are five key areas;
Shangri-La, Garvaghy Road, Afrin Canton, the Sudetenland and Central Syria.
Shangri-La:
This is located in north-eastern Syria. Essentially it is everything to the north-east of the Euphrates River.
It is under the control of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF/QSD).
The largest element of the SDF coalition is the Syrian Kurdish People's Protection Units (YPG). They operate alongside Assyrian/Syriac Christian, Turkmen and Arab Muslim forces.
The Arab element which makes up around 50% of the SDF is comprised of both elements of the long defunct Free Syrian Army (FSA) and local tribes indigenous to north-eastern Syria.
The SDF also contains a small International Brigade made up of foreign volunteers. They are supposedly supported by the US-led coalition; Combined Joint Task Force: Operation Inherent Resolve (CJTFOIR) both with air power and Special Operations Forces (SOF's).
The boundaries of Shangri-La were fully established through the SDF's "Cizre Storm" operation launched in September 2017. This saw the SDF advance south-east from the so-called Madan-Shadaddi Line. First to the Khobar River and then from the Khobar River to the Syria/Iraq border.
This was done on two main axis;
One which advanced along the northern bank of the Euphrates liberating the towns and population centres which sit on the river bank.
One that advanced across the desert area to the north of the Euphrates.This saw the SDF clear the Islamic State of the Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) from an area between roughly the Khobar River and Syria's border with Iraq.
On November 25th 2017 (25/11/17) the desert axis reached the Syria/Iraq border. In the area of the Buwarah Salt Pan which sits around 90km (50 miles) north of where the Euphrates enters Iraq from Syria.
On February 22nd 2018 (22/2/18) the river bank axis liberated the town of al-Bahrah. This sits around 40km (25 miles) north-west of where the Euphrates enters Iraq from Syria.
On May 1st (1/5/18) a new anti-ISIL operation was launched in Shangri-La. Under the new name; "Operation: Round Up."
The first phase of Round Up saw the SDF isolate the population centres on the Euphrates River still under ISIL control. Both from the Syria/Iraq border and from each other.
This saw the SDF advance on the towns of Baghuz Tahtani and Baghuz Fawqani. These sit adjacent to each other stretching around 6km (3 miles) north-west of the Iraq/Syria border.
It also saw the SDF reach the banks of the Euphrates to the south-east of Hajin and just to the north-east of Abu Hassan. Hajin sits around 8km (5 miles) south-east of al-Bahrah and around 8km (5 miles) north-west of Abu Hassan.
The first phrase of Round Up also saw the SDF liberate the remaining areas of the desert to the north of the Euphrates from ISIL.
In that desert area the Cizre Storm operation had succeeded in establishing a line between the town of Markadah on the Khobar River and the Buwarah Salt Pan on the Syria/Iraq border. Everything to the south between this Markadah-Buwarah Line and the north bank of the Euphrates had already been cleared of ISIL.
Therefore Round Up focused on liberating everything north of the Markadah-Buwarah Line. Up to longstanding SDF controlled territory. Essentially a line running between al-Hasakah City and Mount Kolik on the Syria/Iraq border.
On August 7th (7/8/18) the SDF formally announced the successful end of the first phase of the Round Up operation.
They also announced the start of preparations for the second phase of the operation. Although not officially declared it seems highly likely this will focus on liberating the remaining population centres on the north bank of the Euphrates from ISIL.
Garvaghy Road:
This sits directly to the west of Shangri-La where the Euphrates River enters Syria from Turkey. It's stretches roughly 100km (60 miles) from the Euphrates to the towns of Kilis/Azaz.
It was invaded by Turkey in August 2016 and remains under the illegal occupation of the regular Turkish Armed Forces (TSK). Within Garvaghy Road Turkey commands a coalition of Islamist armed groups known as the Army of Conquest/Jaish al-Fatah (JAF).
The most high profile member of the Army of Conquest coalition is Al Qaeda/The Base. Their affiliate within Syria is known as Jabhat al-Nusra/The Support Front.
However in order to disguise both their and the Army of Conquest's links to Al Qaeda they have gone through numerous name changes. Currently they prefer to be referred to as; The Organisation for the Liberation of the Levant/Hayat Tahrir a-Sham (HTS).
Although they are dominant within the Army of Conquest Al Qaeda only have a limited presence within the Garvaghy Road area. There the main group within the coalition are the United Turkmen Army (UTA).
The UTA are formed out of the paramilitary wing of the Turkish Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) who are known as the Grey Wolves. Taking their brigade names from famous Ottoman Emperors such as Sultan Mehmed the Conqueror the UTA are also sometimes known as the Syrian Turkmen Brigades (STB).
Other significant factions within the Army of Conquest include;
The Islamic Movement of the Freemen of the Levant/Harakat Ahrar al-Sham al-Islamiyya (Ahrar al-Sham).
The Army of Islam/Jaish al-Islam (JAI). The Army of Islam are famous for being far more extreme than both ISIL and Al Qaeda. In fact they have executed members of ISIL for being too moderate in their pursuit of genocide.
The Army of Conquest also includes a vast number of small, Islamist fragments of the long defunct Free Syrian Army (FSA). Within the Garvaghy Road area these fragments have been entirely absorbed into the UTA.
Afrin Canton:
Centred around the city of Afrin this roughly 2,400kmsq (1,400 milesq) area directly borders Garvaghy Road to the west.
Historically an ethnically Kurdish area of Syria Afrin Canton has been under the control of first the YPG and then the SDF since the conflict began in 2011.
However in January 2018 Afrin Canton was invaded by Turkey and remains under the illegal occupation of the regular Turkish Armed Forces (TSK). As within Garvaghy Road Turkey commands the Army of Conquest coalition within Afrin Canton. With the UTA being the dominant group in the coalition.
The Sudetenland:
This area sits directly south of Afrin Canton. It crosses parts of both Idlib Province and Hama Province. It is centred around the city of Idlib.
It's name refers to Nazi Germany's annexation of Czechoslovakia's Sudetenland in 1938. Under the guise of a humanitarian intervention.
As with Garvaghy Road and Afrin Canton the Sudetenland is under the occupation of the Army of Conquest.
However in this area Al Qaeda are very much the dominant part of the coalition.
Within what is their heartland in Syria Al Qaeda operate alongside a small group of ISIL fighters and Al Qaeda's longtime ally the Turkistan Islamic Party (TiP). Along with other elements of the Army of Conquest coalition such as the UTA.
Unlike in Garvaghy Road and Afrin Canton Turkey does not officially command the Army of Conquest coalition within the Sudetenland.
However the regular Turkish military (TSK) have established a network of 12 Control Points across the area. These are effectively small bases have been established in collaboration between Turkey and Al Qaeda.
The most southern of these Turkish Control Points sits close to the town of Lataminah in northern Hama Province. Sitting around 15km (10 miles) south of the town of Khan Sheikhoun this really marks the southern boundary of the Sudetenland.
Central Syria:
The southern border of the Sudetenland marks the start of a vast area under the control of the Syrian government. It really includes all parts of the country which are not otherwise designated. I would refer to it simply as; "Syria" only that would cause more confusion by implying the other areas are not part of Syria.
On August 2nd (2/8/18) the Syrians declared victory in an operation to expand the Central Syria area to include the area around the Yarmouk River Basin in the south-west of the country.
Since then Syrian forces have been massing on the southern boundary of the Sudetenland in preparation of an offensive to liberate the area.
The situation across Syria is now largely paused as everyone waits to see if, when and how this Sudetenland operation will be launched. Al Qaeda supporting elements within Britain clearly believe this is a question that will be decided by a strengthened Turkey and a weakened Russia.
In the meantime the majority of the actual action has been taking place at the opposite end of Syria. Around the town of al-Tanf.
Al-Tanf is located on the Syria/Iraq border around 210km (125 miles) east of the Syrian capital Damascus. It was liberated from ISIL by the Syrians in June 2017.
Despite the ISIL presence in the area CJTFOIR have long operated a base just outside al-Tanf. Used to train fragments of the long defunct FSA this has been designated; "Bobby Sands."
Following the Syrians liberation of al-Tanf from ISIL the UK and other CJTFOIR nations removed their SOF's from Bobby Sands.
The US however continued a operate Bobby Sands as a purely American base. Used to support Islamist FSA fragments. Most notably the Revolutionary Commando Army/Maghawir al-Thara (MaT) and the Lions of the East Army/Jaish Usud al-Sharqiya (JuS) groups.
The presence of now exclusively US troops at Bobby Sands means that the Syrians cannot engage ISIL in the area. Likewise the presence of Syrian troops mean that CJTFOIR cannot engage ISIL in the area.
This has created a safe haven for ISIL. Particularly at the Rukban Refugee Camp which ISIL have taken over. The Rukban camp sits right on the Syria/Jordan border around 20km (12 miles) south of al-Tanf.
Having expelled ISIL from all of the surrounding area the Syrians and their Russian allies are now very keen to expel ISIL from the Rukban refugee camp. As a result they have recently been calling a lot of attention to the situation and how the US is protecting ISIL by obstructing them.
The attention Syria and Russia have been calling to the situation has only taken the form of press releases and speeches from spokespeople. However the growing pressure has drawn a very militant response from the US.
On or around August 30th (30/8/18) members of the Lions of the East Army from the Bobby Sands base launched an attack against Syrian forces around Palmyra. This small attack was quickly repelled by Syrian forces. On September 1st (1/9/18) Russia made details of the attack public.
On September 3rd (3/9/18) the US responded by conducting airstrikes against a Syrian military convoy close to al-Tanf. This strike killed four Syrian troops and seven non-Syrians which the US is keen to claim were Iranian. Although they could have been volunteers from places such as Iraq or Afghanistan.
The hostility with which the US clings to the Bobby Sands really highlights the fundamental flaw behind their nearly eight year involvement in the conflict. It is the flaw that leaves them unable to decide where they stand on the Sudetenland operation.
In 2009 Barack Obama became US President. Immediately upon taking up office he was inexplicably awarded the Nobel Peace Prize.
In Obama this seemed to trigger a sort of Grandiose Delusion similar to the famous; "Jerusalem Syndrome." The Nobel was apparently a divine symbol that Obama was to unite all the religions and peoples of the World in peace. Starting with the long running Israel/Palestine conflict.
The problem was that Obama is extremely lazy and the Israel/Palestine conflict is extremely complicated.
Even taken in isolation Israel's internal politics are ferociously complicated. Something which the European Broadcasting Union (EBU) are starting to discover.
The EBU are probably best know for the annual Eurovision Song Contest. The 2018 Song Contest was won by Israel. Meaning that the EBU is currently trying to negotiate with Israel over Israel's hosting of the 2019 Song Contest.
So far this has triggered a massive argument within Israel over already controversial plan to split Israel's public broadcaster known as; "Kan." The plan would see Kan privatised and split into a news arm and an entertainment arm. Under EBU rules the host broadcaster must be a public broadcaster which much produce news as part of its output.
Having agreed to at least delay the privatisation of Kan until after 2019 Song Contest the Israeli government then decided to make an issue out of the deposit which must be paid to the EBU. This usually exceeds the assets of the host broadcaster so the money is made available to the host broadcaster by the host government.
This is the case with Kan. However the Israeli government has declined to make the money available. With Kan being legally prevented from taking out a loan it cannot guarantee this lead to real concern the 2019 Song Contest would be cancelled. Eventually the Israeli government agreed that it would guarantee a loan taken out by Kan to pay the deposit.
Just for good measure on August 30th (30/8/18) the Israeli Public Prosecutor announced that Sara Netanyahu - wife of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is formally suspected of corruption. Not to be mistaken with other corruption cases facing the Netanyahu this case - Case 4000 - relates to financial support Benjamin Netanyahu, as Israeli Minister for Communications, gave to private Israeli private broadcaster and Kan rival Bezeq.
This of course all before the EBU get into the main issue of whether the 2019 Song Contest will be held in Tel Aviv or Jerusalem. Even Israel's religious parties seem to be lobbying for Tel Aviv by insisting that rehearsals can't be held in Jerusalem on the Jewish sabbath.
The thing is that this is all fairly average and routine for Israeli politics.
With the EBU's announcement looming Kan was forced to apologise on September 3rd (3/9/18) for playing part of the Wagner Opera "Gotterdammerung" on one of its radio stations. Wagner is considered Adolf Hitler's favourite composer and his music was often played in death camps during the Nazi Holocaust.
Therefore the playing of Wagner's music is generally frowned upon in Israel.
One group that do from time-to-time play Wagner's music in Israel are the Zionist Settlers. When Israeli police occasionally remove illegal Zionist settlements from Palestinian territory the settlers will frequently respond by blasting them with the music of Wagner.
A clear and highly offensive effort by one group of Israeli Jews to compare another group of Israeli Jews to Nazi death camp guards.
As you can probably tell from that Israel's Zionist Settlers are an extreme and extremely unpleasant bunch.
For further evidence you only need to look at the 2015 "Wedding of Hate" case. At a wedding of Zionist Settlers the main entertainment was the celebration of that years Duma arson attack in which a Palestinian family were burnt alive in their home. Wedding guest triumphantly acted out setting fire to and stabbing Palestinian children.
You could also look at the 1995 murder of Israeli Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin. He was killed by a Zionist Settler.
Both within internal Israel politics and across the wider conflict with Palestine there is a need to counter balance the Zionist Settlers. Within the wider region Iran is vital in providing that counter balance.
Although I don't think there is anything more complicated than Israel's internal politics the internal politics of Iran must come a close second.
Within Iran there are multiple seats of power. There is the Assembly of Experts which chooses the Supreme Leader and is backed by the Revolutionary Guard. Then there is the elected President and separately an elected Parliament. A Parliament which recently censured the President.
The fact that Iran doesn't have a clear leader or chain of command is complicated further by the fact Iranians are quite French in their outlook. In the sense they'll work on something all morning, get bored and go off to lunch. When they return they'll forget what they were doing in the morning and spend all afternoon working on something completely different.
Faced with all this complexity Obama decided he couldn't be bothered to learn. Instead his plan was to make all the complexity go away.
So for example you have Obama's 2010 coordinated, global sanctions on Iran's nuclear program. Designed to shut down any discussion about Iran's nuclear program. Especially the discussions complicated by the fact they weren't actually about Iran's nuclear program.
When the violence in Syria began in 2011 Obama saw an opportunity to remove Iran from the discussion completely. He considered it a viable idea to back Al Qaeda and ISIL to overthrow Syria's government and end its long term alliance with Iran.
This idea found traction within the US due to factions within the Republican Party.
In the wake of the Islamic Revolution in November 1979 Iran took 52 American Embassy Workers hostage. In April 1980 the Democrat President Jimmy Carter launched; "Operation: Eagle Claw" to rescue them. It failed miserably.
At the November 1980 US Presidential Election Republican candidate Ronald Reagan used the fate of the hostages to defeat Jimmy Carter. In January 1981 then President Reagan paid the Iranians US$8bn to release the hostages after 444 days.
Although they like to forget how Reagan freed the hostages Republicans have been beating that tired old drum ever since.
Ignoring that a lot of time has passed and other things have happened. Such as the end of the Cold War and some terror attacks against the US in 2001.
The idea of backing Al Qaeda and ISIL to force Iran from Syria is of course utterly insane.
Although you may not like them both Iran and Syria are nation states. They are members of the UN and conduct normal diplomatic relations. As a result there are a number of levers that can be used to influence their behaviour and the behaviour of their proxies such as Hezbollah.
Al Qaeda and ISIL are chaotic terror groups. There are none of the diplomatic levers that can be used against Iran and Syria
I would've thought how insane this idea was became clear in 2014 when the US and others were forced to switch their allegiance and start fighting ISIL.
Apparently though this thinking still persists within America.
In June 2018 a US delegation visited the Syrian government in Damascus. The US offered to withdraw from Syria entirely with ISIL and Al Qaeda undefeated. Their only objective was that Iran also withdrew from Syria.
It should hardly come as a surprise then that the US is still struggling to get its head around the Sudetenland.
17:25 on 5/9/18 (UK date).
Shangri-La, Garvaghy Road, Afrin Canton, the Sudetenland and Central Syria.
Shangri-La:
This is located in north-eastern Syria. Essentially it is everything to the north-east of the Euphrates River.
It is under the control of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF/QSD).
The largest element of the SDF coalition is the Syrian Kurdish People's Protection Units (YPG). They operate alongside Assyrian/Syriac Christian, Turkmen and Arab Muslim forces.
The Arab element which makes up around 50% of the SDF is comprised of both elements of the long defunct Free Syrian Army (FSA) and local tribes indigenous to north-eastern Syria.
The SDF also contains a small International Brigade made up of foreign volunteers. They are supposedly supported by the US-led coalition; Combined Joint Task Force: Operation Inherent Resolve (CJTFOIR) both with air power and Special Operations Forces (SOF's).
The boundaries of Shangri-La were fully established through the SDF's "Cizre Storm" operation launched in September 2017. This saw the SDF advance south-east from the so-called Madan-Shadaddi Line. First to the Khobar River and then from the Khobar River to the Syria/Iraq border.
This was done on two main axis;
One which advanced along the northern bank of the Euphrates liberating the towns and population centres which sit on the river bank.
One that advanced across the desert area to the north of the Euphrates.This saw the SDF clear the Islamic State of the Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) from an area between roughly the Khobar River and Syria's border with Iraq.
On November 25th 2017 (25/11/17) the desert axis reached the Syria/Iraq border. In the area of the Buwarah Salt Pan which sits around 90km (50 miles) north of where the Euphrates enters Iraq from Syria.
On February 22nd 2018 (22/2/18) the river bank axis liberated the town of al-Bahrah. This sits around 40km (25 miles) north-west of where the Euphrates enters Iraq from Syria.
On May 1st (1/5/18) a new anti-ISIL operation was launched in Shangri-La. Under the new name; "Operation: Round Up."
The first phase of Round Up saw the SDF isolate the population centres on the Euphrates River still under ISIL control. Both from the Syria/Iraq border and from each other.
This saw the SDF advance on the towns of Baghuz Tahtani and Baghuz Fawqani. These sit adjacent to each other stretching around 6km (3 miles) north-west of the Iraq/Syria border.
It also saw the SDF reach the banks of the Euphrates to the south-east of Hajin and just to the north-east of Abu Hassan. Hajin sits around 8km (5 miles) south-east of al-Bahrah and around 8km (5 miles) north-west of Abu Hassan.
The first phrase of Round Up also saw the SDF liberate the remaining areas of the desert to the north of the Euphrates from ISIL.
In that desert area the Cizre Storm operation had succeeded in establishing a line between the town of Markadah on the Khobar River and the Buwarah Salt Pan on the Syria/Iraq border. Everything to the south between this Markadah-Buwarah Line and the north bank of the Euphrates had already been cleared of ISIL.
Therefore Round Up focused on liberating everything north of the Markadah-Buwarah Line. Up to longstanding SDF controlled territory. Essentially a line running between al-Hasakah City and Mount Kolik on the Syria/Iraq border.
On August 7th (7/8/18) the SDF formally announced the successful end of the first phase of the Round Up operation.
They also announced the start of preparations for the second phase of the operation. Although not officially declared it seems highly likely this will focus on liberating the remaining population centres on the north bank of the Euphrates from ISIL.
Garvaghy Road:
This sits directly to the west of Shangri-La where the Euphrates River enters Syria from Turkey. It's stretches roughly 100km (60 miles) from the Euphrates to the towns of Kilis/Azaz.
It was invaded by Turkey in August 2016 and remains under the illegal occupation of the regular Turkish Armed Forces (TSK). Within Garvaghy Road Turkey commands a coalition of Islamist armed groups known as the Army of Conquest/Jaish al-Fatah (JAF).
The most high profile member of the Army of Conquest coalition is Al Qaeda/The Base. Their affiliate within Syria is known as Jabhat al-Nusra/The Support Front.
However in order to disguise both their and the Army of Conquest's links to Al Qaeda they have gone through numerous name changes. Currently they prefer to be referred to as; The Organisation for the Liberation of the Levant/Hayat Tahrir a-Sham (HTS).
Although they are dominant within the Army of Conquest Al Qaeda only have a limited presence within the Garvaghy Road area. There the main group within the coalition are the United Turkmen Army (UTA).
The UTA are formed out of the paramilitary wing of the Turkish Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) who are known as the Grey Wolves. Taking their brigade names from famous Ottoman Emperors such as Sultan Mehmed the Conqueror the UTA are also sometimes known as the Syrian Turkmen Brigades (STB).
Other significant factions within the Army of Conquest include;
The Islamic Movement of the Freemen of the Levant/Harakat Ahrar al-Sham al-Islamiyya (Ahrar al-Sham).
The Army of Islam/Jaish al-Islam (JAI). The Army of Islam are famous for being far more extreme than both ISIL and Al Qaeda. In fact they have executed members of ISIL for being too moderate in their pursuit of genocide.
The Army of Conquest also includes a vast number of small, Islamist fragments of the long defunct Free Syrian Army (FSA). Within the Garvaghy Road area these fragments have been entirely absorbed into the UTA.
Afrin Canton:
Centred around the city of Afrin this roughly 2,400kmsq (1,400 milesq) area directly borders Garvaghy Road to the west.
Historically an ethnically Kurdish area of Syria Afrin Canton has been under the control of first the YPG and then the SDF since the conflict began in 2011.
However in January 2018 Afrin Canton was invaded by Turkey and remains under the illegal occupation of the regular Turkish Armed Forces (TSK). As within Garvaghy Road Turkey commands the Army of Conquest coalition within Afrin Canton. With the UTA being the dominant group in the coalition.
The Sudetenland:
This area sits directly south of Afrin Canton. It crosses parts of both Idlib Province and Hama Province. It is centred around the city of Idlib.
It's name refers to Nazi Germany's annexation of Czechoslovakia's Sudetenland in 1938. Under the guise of a humanitarian intervention.
As with Garvaghy Road and Afrin Canton the Sudetenland is under the occupation of the Army of Conquest.
However in this area Al Qaeda are very much the dominant part of the coalition.
Within what is their heartland in Syria Al Qaeda operate alongside a small group of ISIL fighters and Al Qaeda's longtime ally the Turkistan Islamic Party (TiP). Along with other elements of the Army of Conquest coalition such as the UTA.
Unlike in Garvaghy Road and Afrin Canton Turkey does not officially command the Army of Conquest coalition within the Sudetenland.
However the regular Turkish military (TSK) have established a network of 12 Control Points across the area. These are effectively small bases have been established in collaboration between Turkey and Al Qaeda.
The most southern of these Turkish Control Points sits close to the town of Lataminah in northern Hama Province. Sitting around 15km (10 miles) south of the town of Khan Sheikhoun this really marks the southern boundary of the Sudetenland.
Central Syria:
The southern border of the Sudetenland marks the start of a vast area under the control of the Syrian government. It really includes all parts of the country which are not otherwise designated. I would refer to it simply as; "Syria" only that would cause more confusion by implying the other areas are not part of Syria.
On August 2nd (2/8/18) the Syrians declared victory in an operation to expand the Central Syria area to include the area around the Yarmouk River Basin in the south-west of the country.
Since then Syrian forces have been massing on the southern boundary of the Sudetenland in preparation of an offensive to liberate the area.
The situation across Syria is now largely paused as everyone waits to see if, when and how this Sudetenland operation will be launched. Al Qaeda supporting elements within Britain clearly believe this is a question that will be decided by a strengthened Turkey and a weakened Russia.
In the meantime the majority of the actual action has been taking place at the opposite end of Syria. Around the town of al-Tanf.
Al-Tanf is located on the Syria/Iraq border around 210km (125 miles) east of the Syrian capital Damascus. It was liberated from ISIL by the Syrians in June 2017.
Despite the ISIL presence in the area CJTFOIR have long operated a base just outside al-Tanf. Used to train fragments of the long defunct FSA this has been designated; "Bobby Sands."
Following the Syrians liberation of al-Tanf from ISIL the UK and other CJTFOIR nations removed their SOF's from Bobby Sands.
The US however continued a operate Bobby Sands as a purely American base. Used to support Islamist FSA fragments. Most notably the Revolutionary Commando Army/Maghawir al-Thara (MaT) and the Lions of the East Army/Jaish Usud al-Sharqiya (JuS) groups.
The presence of now exclusively US troops at Bobby Sands means that the Syrians cannot engage ISIL in the area. Likewise the presence of Syrian troops mean that CJTFOIR cannot engage ISIL in the area.
This has created a safe haven for ISIL. Particularly at the Rukban Refugee Camp which ISIL have taken over. The Rukban camp sits right on the Syria/Jordan border around 20km (12 miles) south of al-Tanf.
Having expelled ISIL from all of the surrounding area the Syrians and their Russian allies are now very keen to expel ISIL from the Rukban refugee camp. As a result they have recently been calling a lot of attention to the situation and how the US is protecting ISIL by obstructing them.
The attention Syria and Russia have been calling to the situation has only taken the form of press releases and speeches from spokespeople. However the growing pressure has drawn a very militant response from the US.
On or around August 30th (30/8/18) members of the Lions of the East Army from the Bobby Sands base launched an attack against Syrian forces around Palmyra. This small attack was quickly repelled by Syrian forces. On September 1st (1/9/18) Russia made details of the attack public.
On September 3rd (3/9/18) the US responded by conducting airstrikes against a Syrian military convoy close to al-Tanf. This strike killed four Syrian troops and seven non-Syrians which the US is keen to claim were Iranian. Although they could have been volunteers from places such as Iraq or Afghanistan.
The hostility with which the US clings to the Bobby Sands really highlights the fundamental flaw behind their nearly eight year involvement in the conflict. It is the flaw that leaves them unable to decide where they stand on the Sudetenland operation.
In 2009 Barack Obama became US President. Immediately upon taking up office he was inexplicably awarded the Nobel Peace Prize.
In Obama this seemed to trigger a sort of Grandiose Delusion similar to the famous; "Jerusalem Syndrome." The Nobel was apparently a divine symbol that Obama was to unite all the religions and peoples of the World in peace. Starting with the long running Israel/Palestine conflict.
The problem was that Obama is extremely lazy and the Israel/Palestine conflict is extremely complicated.
Even taken in isolation Israel's internal politics are ferociously complicated. Something which the European Broadcasting Union (EBU) are starting to discover.
The EBU are probably best know for the annual Eurovision Song Contest. The 2018 Song Contest was won by Israel. Meaning that the EBU is currently trying to negotiate with Israel over Israel's hosting of the 2019 Song Contest.
So far this has triggered a massive argument within Israel over already controversial plan to split Israel's public broadcaster known as; "Kan." The plan would see Kan privatised and split into a news arm and an entertainment arm. Under EBU rules the host broadcaster must be a public broadcaster which much produce news as part of its output.
Having agreed to at least delay the privatisation of Kan until after 2019 Song Contest the Israeli government then decided to make an issue out of the deposit which must be paid to the EBU. This usually exceeds the assets of the host broadcaster so the money is made available to the host broadcaster by the host government.
This is the case with Kan. However the Israeli government has declined to make the money available. With Kan being legally prevented from taking out a loan it cannot guarantee this lead to real concern the 2019 Song Contest would be cancelled. Eventually the Israeli government agreed that it would guarantee a loan taken out by Kan to pay the deposit.
Just for good measure on August 30th (30/8/18) the Israeli Public Prosecutor announced that Sara Netanyahu - wife of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is formally suspected of corruption. Not to be mistaken with other corruption cases facing the Netanyahu this case - Case 4000 - relates to financial support Benjamin Netanyahu, as Israeli Minister for Communications, gave to private Israeli private broadcaster and Kan rival Bezeq.
This of course all before the EBU get into the main issue of whether the 2019 Song Contest will be held in Tel Aviv or Jerusalem. Even Israel's religious parties seem to be lobbying for Tel Aviv by insisting that rehearsals can't be held in Jerusalem on the Jewish sabbath.
The thing is that this is all fairly average and routine for Israeli politics.
With the EBU's announcement looming Kan was forced to apologise on September 3rd (3/9/18) for playing part of the Wagner Opera "Gotterdammerung" on one of its radio stations. Wagner is considered Adolf Hitler's favourite composer and his music was often played in death camps during the Nazi Holocaust.
Therefore the playing of Wagner's music is generally frowned upon in Israel.
One group that do from time-to-time play Wagner's music in Israel are the Zionist Settlers. When Israeli police occasionally remove illegal Zionist settlements from Palestinian territory the settlers will frequently respond by blasting them with the music of Wagner.
A clear and highly offensive effort by one group of Israeli Jews to compare another group of Israeli Jews to Nazi death camp guards.
As you can probably tell from that Israel's Zionist Settlers are an extreme and extremely unpleasant bunch.
For further evidence you only need to look at the 2015 "Wedding of Hate" case. At a wedding of Zionist Settlers the main entertainment was the celebration of that years Duma arson attack in which a Palestinian family were burnt alive in their home. Wedding guest triumphantly acted out setting fire to and stabbing Palestinian children.
You could also look at the 1995 murder of Israeli Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin. He was killed by a Zionist Settler.
Both within internal Israel politics and across the wider conflict with Palestine there is a need to counter balance the Zionist Settlers. Within the wider region Iran is vital in providing that counter balance.
Although I don't think there is anything more complicated than Israel's internal politics the internal politics of Iran must come a close second.
Within Iran there are multiple seats of power. There is the Assembly of Experts which chooses the Supreme Leader and is backed by the Revolutionary Guard. Then there is the elected President and separately an elected Parliament. A Parliament which recently censured the President.
The fact that Iran doesn't have a clear leader or chain of command is complicated further by the fact Iranians are quite French in their outlook. In the sense they'll work on something all morning, get bored and go off to lunch. When they return they'll forget what they were doing in the morning and spend all afternoon working on something completely different.
Faced with all this complexity Obama decided he couldn't be bothered to learn. Instead his plan was to make all the complexity go away.
So for example you have Obama's 2010 coordinated, global sanctions on Iran's nuclear program. Designed to shut down any discussion about Iran's nuclear program. Especially the discussions complicated by the fact they weren't actually about Iran's nuclear program.
When the violence in Syria began in 2011 Obama saw an opportunity to remove Iran from the discussion completely. He considered it a viable idea to back Al Qaeda and ISIL to overthrow Syria's government and end its long term alliance with Iran.
This idea found traction within the US due to factions within the Republican Party.
In the wake of the Islamic Revolution in November 1979 Iran took 52 American Embassy Workers hostage. In April 1980 the Democrat President Jimmy Carter launched; "Operation: Eagle Claw" to rescue them. It failed miserably.
At the November 1980 US Presidential Election Republican candidate Ronald Reagan used the fate of the hostages to defeat Jimmy Carter. In January 1981 then President Reagan paid the Iranians US$8bn to release the hostages after 444 days.
Although they like to forget how Reagan freed the hostages Republicans have been beating that tired old drum ever since.
Ignoring that a lot of time has passed and other things have happened. Such as the end of the Cold War and some terror attacks against the US in 2001.
The idea of backing Al Qaeda and ISIL to force Iran from Syria is of course utterly insane.
Although you may not like them both Iran and Syria are nation states. They are members of the UN and conduct normal diplomatic relations. As a result there are a number of levers that can be used to influence their behaviour and the behaviour of their proxies such as Hezbollah.
Al Qaeda and ISIL are chaotic terror groups. There are none of the diplomatic levers that can be used against Iran and Syria
I would've thought how insane this idea was became clear in 2014 when the US and others were forced to switch their allegiance and start fighting ISIL.
Apparently though this thinking still persists within America.
In June 2018 a US delegation visited the Syrian government in Damascus. The US offered to withdraw from Syria entirely with ISIL and Al Qaeda undefeated. Their only objective was that Iran also withdrew from Syria.
It should hardly come as a surprise then that the US is still struggling to get its head around the Sudetenland.
17:25 on 5/9/18 (UK date).
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
