Operation Featherweight: Month 36, Week 2, Day 2.

In my post yesterday I covered the developments at the fourth round of meetings in the Astana Process on Syria. These took place on May 3rd (3/5/17) and May 4th (4/5/17).

Since then the wider political landscape in the region has shifted dramatically.

On May 22nd (22/5/17) the Manchester Evening News Arena (MENA) in the UK city of Manchester came under terrorist attack. A Libyan suicide bomber detonated his device amongst crowds that were leaving a concert by US popstar Ariana Grande. This attack killed 22 people and wounded 59.

On June 3rd (3/6/17) three terrorists of different nationalities conducted a marauding run-over and stabbing attack in the London Bridge area of the UK capital London. This attack killed 8 people and wounded 48.

Both of these attacks were directed by the nation state of Qatar.

The main objective was to give the UK Labour Party a boost at the June 8th (8/6/17) General Election in order to weaken Britain.

The thinking being that a weakened Britain to be less able to press for the closure of the Garvaghy Road area of Syria. This would allow Qatar to transfer fighters of the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) from Syria to Libya where Qatar is using them to seize control of that nation and its vast oil reserves.

Sadly Qatar's plan succeeded. The Labour Party did not hesitate to exploit the terror attacks resulting a swell in support for them at the election. This meant that the Conservative Party were denied an outright Parliamentary majority and leaving the UK without a functioning government.

The Labour Party however have not been prepared to stop there.

Over the night of June 13th (13/6/17) into June 14th (14/6/17) a fire completely destroyed the 120 apartment Grenfell Tower on the Lancaster West housing estate in the Kensington area of the UK city of London. This has left now 80 people dead or missing presumed dead.

At the very least the Labour Party have decided to exploit the Grenfell Tower fire to further destabilise Britain and ultimately overthrow the British government. In the 14 days since the fire there have been at least 7 incidents of urban disorder - basically rioting - as supporters of the Labour Party have clashed with police across London.

The Labour Party's conduct in response to particularly the Grenfell Tower fire has become a global issue. I am still fielding questions on the matter from as far afield as Asia and South America. So it has certainly inhibited my ability to act against groups like ISIL and their associates in Syria and beyond.

The general consensus is that the UK will not tolerate with the Labour Party's behaviour. There is even some disbelief that the UK has put up with it for this long.

The UK's allies in the Gulf region have certainly not been prepared to put up with it.

Immediately following the London Bridge attack Gulf states led by Saudi Arabia placed Qatar under economic blockade on June 5th (5/6/17).

Saudi Arabia's main objection is Qatar's relationship with Iran. I do not think it is possible for me to overstate just how much Saudi Arabia dislikes Iran or how irrational that dislike can be. Qatar on the other hand is currently working with Iran to develop the South Pars/North Dome natural gas field in the Persian Gulf. Saudi Arabia even objects to it being referred to as; "The Persian Gulf."

The second main driver behind the Gulf States blockade of Qatar is Qatar's support for the Muslim Brotherhood. It is through this organisation that Qatar is allied with Turkey to destabilise not only Syria and Iraq but also Egypt and Libya.

The agreement seems to be that Turkey's President/Prime Minister/Emperor Recep Tayyip Erdogan will get his new Ottoman Empire including Syria, Egypt and parts of Iraq while Qatar will get Libya and its oil reserves.

One of the Saudi conditions for lifting the blockade on Qatar is Qatar shutting down its state-run Al Jazeera TV network. Particularly within Egypt this is used as the propaganda arm of the Muslim Brotherhood.

The Gulf States blockade of Qatar also has a direct impact on the battlefield in Syria.

For the sake simplicity I frequently talk about the Army of Conquest/Jaish al-Fatah (JAF) Islamist coalition fighting within Syria.

If I'm feeling particularly detailed I sometimes break the coalition down into its constituent groups. Such as the Al Qaeda affiliate The Support Front/Jabhat al-Nusra (ANF), the United Turkmen Army (UTA), the Islamic Movement of the Freemen of the Levant/Harakat Ahrar ash-Sham al-Islamiyya (Ahrar al-Sham), the Army of Islam/Jaish al-Islam (JAI) etc.

However to really understand what is going on in Syria it is not enough to break down the Army of Conquest into the smaller groups that make it up. You actually have to break it down to the level of specific individuals and how those individuals function within the dynamics of groups of only around 150 people.

Both Saudi Arabia and Qatar support different factions within both Ahrar al-Sham and the Army of Islam. Another of Saudi Arabia's conditions for lifting the blockade on Qatar is Qatar ending its support for those factions. Thus leaving Saudi Arabia in complete control of Ahrar al-Sham and the Army of Islam.

With Qatar also expect to end its relationship with the Muslim Brotherhood it will also end its influence over the UTA element of the coalition.

Yesterday (27/6/17) Qatar's Foreign Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman al-Thani travelled to Washington D.C to meet his US counterpart Rex Tillerson.

So the World was treated to the Petya Ransomeware Cyberattack.

In the immediate aftermath of the MENA bombing Qatar boasted about what it had done. This involved Qatar's state news agency publishing and then retracting an inflammatory speech that Qatar's leader Shiekh Tamim bin Hamad al-Thani gave to a graduating class of military officers on May 21st (21/5/17).

The general message of this speech was that Saudi Arabia had humiliated itself by inviting US President Donald Trump for a state visit on May 20th (20/5/17). Hamad al-Thani felt there was no need acknowledging President Trump because Qatar would soon overthrow him and install a puppet that would allow Qatar to dominate not just the region but the World.

After taking it down the Qataris then claimed that this speech had never taken place. It was a fake that had been placed on the website of their news agency by computer hackers. This was a reference to the WannaCry ransomware attack the UK treated the World to on May 12th (12/5/17).

The WannaCry virus was really a stunt to provide a talking point at the Eurovision Song Contest that was taking place at the time. Although it created a lot of news coverage and seemed very dramatic for a few hours it was a deeply flawed virus that didn't actually do any damage.

The name WannaCry was a joke on US supporters of Hillary Clinton who seem to have been on the verge of tears ever since she was defeated in the November 8th 2016 (8/11/16) US Presidential Election by President Trump. Since then they have been trying to overthrow President Trump using wild accusations of Russian hacking. It is through the Muslim Brotherhood that Qatar is coordinating this campaign.

The Petya virus is based on the same EternalBlue exploit created by the US National Security Agency (NSA) as the WannaCry virus. However it is much nastier. It actually reads as though someone has gone through a checklist of all the deliberate mistakes included in WannaCry and corrected them.

The first targets of the Petya virus was actually the Russian oil companies Rosneft and Bashneft. However it then quickly spread to Shamali Province where it seems to have done the most damage. The Northern or Shamali Province of ISIL created in the territory that used to be Ukraine in order to sanction Russia over its opposition to ISIL and the Army of Conquest.

Just before the Petya virus spread to Shamali Province Colonel Maksim Shapoval of their Military Intelligence was killed in a car bomb in the Solomensky district of Kiev. 

This was very reminiscent of the series of events that occurred between the March 15th (15/3/17) and March 16th (16/3/17) meetings in the Astana Process and the March 23rd (23/3/17) to March 31st (31/5/17) meetings in the Geneva Process.

On March 23rd (23/5/17) there was a massive fire at an arms depot in the disputed east of Shamali Province. That same day former Russian MP and now dissident Denis Voronenkov was assassinated in Kiev.

Under former President Obama the US would have immediately blamed both of these incidents on Russia and demanded more sanctions placing more pressure on the country during the Syria meetings.

The main target of the Petya virus in Shamali Province though seems to have been  the Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant. Site of the April 26th 1986 (26/4/86) disaster. There computers monitoring the radiation levels that still persist at the site were frozen by Petya virus forcing manual radiation monitoring to take place.

What everyone seems to forget about the Chernobyl disaster is that it was actually a fire. Out of control heating caused a steam explosion causing the Graphite in the reactor core to catch fire. The design of the building caused a chimney effect spreading the fire to the buildings roof. That fire then burnt for 9 days spewing radioactive material as far as the Republic of Ireland and the Atlantic Ocean.

So there are certainly many differences. However there are also a number of similarities between the Grenfell Tower fire and the Chernobyl disaster. The experience of Chernobyl certainly dismisses the Labour Party's claim that the fire would not have happened if the building had been clad in a type of mineral insulation such as Graphite.

As I've said the spy's grapevine has been full of rumours of documents linking the Labour Party to an arson attack on Grenfell Tower being obtained by computer hackers. In fact these days its more of a discussion of who is going to make these documents public and when.

Also last night Qatar's Muslim Brotherhood ally Turkey started shelling the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) within the Afrin Canton. Turkey attacking the SDF particularly in the Afrin Canton is not an uncommon event. So common in fact that if its only a short barrage the SDF often don't bother mention it.

However last night's artillery barrage was accompanied by a social media barrage. Turkish Tweeters forced "Afrin" to the number 6 position in the global trends for a good couple of hours yesterday evening. This seems to be a reference to the Muslim Brotherhood-led social media campaigns in support of ISIL and the Army of Conquest.

Also a few hours before the Tweet-storm began I do seem to remember challenging Twitter users to try and ruin my evening.

16:50 on 28/6/17 (UK date).

Operation Featherweight: Month 36, Week 2, Day 1

In the autumn of 2013 the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) were on the brink of defeat. Syrian forces had limited them to an area around the city of Raqqa along the Euphrates River basin in the north-east of the country.

This is obviously very bad news for ISIL. Not least because the group's motto is; "Maintain and expand." So in December of 2013 ISIL invaded the south-western province of Syria's neighbour Iraq. 

In the summer of 2014 ISIL also invaded northern Iraq. This included seizing the city of Mosul which has functioned as ISIL's de facto capital in Iraq ever since.

In June 2016 the Iraqi Security Forces (ISF) liberated the city of Fallujah. This marked the functional liberation of all of Anbar province although ISIL do continue to maintain some camps within the vast unpopulated desert areas of Anbar.

In October 2016 the ISF launched an operation to liberate Mosul. Eight months later ISIL have lost control of all of Mosul expect for a handful of streets within the Old City district of the city.

With the exception of the town of Tal Afar ISIL have also lost control of the roughly 28,000kmsq (16,800milesq) area between Mosul and Iraq's border with Syria. 

On June 7th (7/7/17) the Popular Mobilisation Forces (PMF) militias which function as part of the ISF liberated the village of Tal Safuq which functions as one of the main border crossings. This adds to the H47 Highway crossing that the PMF liberated on May 29th (29/5/17).

Directly across the border from these freshly liberated areas you have the area designated; "Shangri-La." Now in excess of 15,000kmsq (9000 milesq) Shangri-La occupies almost the entire area of north-eastern Syria beyond the Euphrates River basin. It is a under the control of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF/QSD) who are a Kurdish-led coalition of moderate Kurdish, Arab and Assyrian forces.

The SDF also control a smaller area in north-western Syria. Roughly 4,500kmsq (2,100milesq) in area this is centred around the city of Afrin and is designated; "The Afrin Canton."

Therefore the logical way to defeat ISIL and bring about a political transition in Syria would be for the SDF to join up the Afrin Canton and Shangri-La creating a continuous area controlled by moderate forces. This would cut ISIL's supply lines to and from Turkey and allow for the establishment of a Safe Haven in which civilians could be protected.

This is exactly what the SDF set about doing. 

On December 30th 2015 (30/12/17) the SDF liberated the Tishrin Dam which is the main crossing point from Shangri-La over the Euphrates. On May 31st 2016 (31/5/16) the SDF launched an operation to liberate Manbij which is really the first town on the western banks of the Euphrates from Shangri-La. This operation was successfully completed on August 13th 2016 (13/8/16).

The problem has always been Syria's neighbour to the north Turkey. Its President/Prime Minister/Emperor Recep Tayyip Erdogan has long harboured a desire to re-establish the Ottoman Empire.

The original Ottoman Empire was established by victory over the Mamluk Empire in the battle of Dabiq Meadow in 1516. Dabiq Meadow is located in northern Syria. So Erdogan has long backed ISIL and associated groups to overthrow the Syrian government so Erdogan can claim the nation as part of his empire.

Obviously then Erdogan is very opposed to the SDF cutting ISIL's supply lines to and from Turkey. So on August 24th 2016 (24/8/16) Erdogan sent regular Turkish forces into northern Syria to reinforce irregular and therefore illegal Turkish forces known as the United Turkmen Army (UTA).

Erdogan's forces were sent to a roughly 100km (60 mile) wide area of northern Syria that has been designated; "Garvaghy Road." On its western boundary it has the towns of Azaz/Kilis and the Euphrates River on its eastern boundary.

Erdogan's purpose of invading and illegally occupying Garvaghy Road was to prevent the SDF from linking up Shangri-La and Afrin Canton. This would allow Erdogan to keep supplying ISIL in Raqqa to the south-east and the allied Army of Conquest/Jaish al-Fatah (JAF) coalition in Aleppo City in the south-west.

On December 12th 2016 (12/12/16) all of Aleppo City was liberated from the Army of Conquest by Syrian forces. This obviously ended their supply line with Turkey via Garvaghy Road and forced them into a small area of territory centred around Idlib City - just south of Afrin Canton. This area has been designated; "The Sudetenland."

By way of compensation for the liberation of Aleppo City Russia agreed to establish the Astana Process alongside Syria, Iran and Turkey to tackle the conflict in Syria. This led to the establishment of the Astana Ceasefire on December 27th 2016 (27/12/16).

Since its creation is has never been quite clear who the Astana Ceasefire does and doesn't apply to. At Erdogan's insistence it does not apply to the SDF and it also does not apply to ISIL and Al Qaeda.

The confusion though arises in the form of the Army of Conquest/Jaish al-Fatah (JAF) coalition.

The Army of Conquest is made up of a number of Islamist groups such as the Islamic Movement of the Freemen of the Levant/Harakat Ahrar ash-Sham al-Islamiyya (Ahrar al-Sham) and the Army of Islam/Jaish al-Islam (JAI) alongside the UTA and fragments of what used to be known as the Free Syria Army (FSA).

The problem is that the Army of Conquest is allied with ISIL. It is also headed by Al Qaeda/The Base's Syrian affiliate Jabhat al-Nusra/The Support Front (ANF).

Therefore the question has always been whether a ceasefire that doesn't apply to ISIL and Al Qaeda applies to groups that are allied with ISIL and Al Qaeda?

The second round of meetings in the Astana Process took place on January 23rd (23/1/17) and January 24th (24/1/17).

This meeting attempted to answer the question of the Astana Ceasefire by establishing the Astana Ceasefire Mechanism. This established a mechanism to allow Russia, Iran and Turkey to argue about who the ceasefire did and didn't apply to. The meeting also attempted to address the ceasefire question by pledging to separate non-extremist groups from the Army of Conquest coalition.

The Astana Process is of course not the only diplomatic effort to tackle the conflict in Syria. There is also the longstanding United Nations (UN) sponsored Geneva Process. To the UN's shame the Geneva Process has never been about bringing peace to Syria. Instead its entire purpose has been to empower groups such as ISIL and the Army of Conquest to overthrow the Syria government.

Ever since the establishment of the Astana Ceasefire the main objective of the Geneva Process has been to expand the Astana Ceasefire so it does include Al Qaeda and ISIL affiliated groups.

Despite the Astana Process and the Geneva Process there has so far been no indication of the Astana Ceasefire being applied to the Army of Conquest.

In January the Army of Conquest lost control of the Wadi Barada and Ayn al-Fijr areas close to the Syrian capital Damascus. Since then they have lost control of large areas around Daraa to the south of Damascus and Hama between the capital and Idlib city. As a result the Army of Conquest are now really limited to the Sudetenland area.

The third round of meetings in the Astana Process were held on March 15th (15/3/17) and March 16th (16/3/17). These were rapidly followed the fifth round of meetings on the Geneva Process between March 23rd (23/3/17) to March 31st (31/3/17).

These meetings were accompanied by a massive increase in tensions intended to force the expansion of the Astana Ceasefire to the Army of Conquest.

For example on March 1st (1/3/17) Erdogan sent the Turkish air force to strike the SDF and the US Special Operations Forces (SOF's) at the town of Manbij on the eastern boundary of Garvaghy Road. This was intended to signal Erdogan's intention to advance his forces out of Garvaghy Road to sweep the SDF aside and restore Shangri-La to ISIL's control.

Erdogan's airstrikes triggered several days of tense stand-off. This was only brought to an end when Russia facilitated the deployment of Syrian forces to act as a buffer between Erdogan's forces and the SDF.

On March 11th (11/3/17) and March 15th (15/3/17) the Army of Conquest launched large-scale suicide bomb attacks against Damascus. They followed this up on March 19th (19/3/17) by launching a short-lived conventional military assault on the Syrian capital.

On March 22nd (22/3/17) Army of Conquest supporters conducted a marauding run-over and stabbing attack against the Parliament building in the UK capital London. The Army of Conquest also used this day to launch a short-lived conventional military assault against the Syrian city of Hama.

On March 24th (24/3/17) Army of Conquest supporters ambushed and killed six members of the Chechen National Guard in the Russian region of Chechnya. It is the Chechen National Guard who are helping to provide security within liberated Aleppo City.

Both the third round of meetings in the Astana Process and the fifth round of meetings in the Geneva Process ended without the inclusion of the Army of Conquest in the Astana Ceasefire. This led to a further increase in tensions and violence from the Army of Conquest and its supporters.

On April 3rd (3/4/17) Army of Conquest supporters attempted multiple bomb attacks on the underground rail (Metro) system in the Russian city of St Petersburg. Although only one of the bombs exploded the attack succeeded in killing 10 civilians.

St Petersburg was chosen because it was Russia's capital during the 1917 revolutions. Beyond the loss of life this was intended as a threat to Russia that a new revolution could be arranged if the Army of Conquest were included in the Astana Ceasefire.

The bomber was from Kyrgyzstan on China's border. As such it also served as a threat to that permanent member of the UN Security Council (UNSC).

On April 4th (4/4/17) the Army of Conquest conducted a Sarin gas Chemical Weapons attack on the town of Khan Shiekhoun close to Hama City. The hope was that this would be blamed on the Syrians and immediately trigger a backlash that saw the Army of Conquest included in the Astana ceasefire.

Although it didn't get the Army of Conquest included in the Astana Ceasefire the Khan Shiekhoun did prompt the US to conduct missile strikes against the Syrians. A dramatic development that saw the US in effect acting in support of ISIL.

While the Army of Conquest and their supporters were trying to exert pressure on the international community to include them in the Astana Ceasefire the international community was exerting pressure on Erdogan to withdraw from Garvaghy Road.

On April 16th (16/4/17) Turkey held a referendum on granting Erdogan Sultan-like powers. The expectation from Turkey's allies was that Erdogan would use this moment to announce the withdrawal from Garvaghy Road as a sign of strength.

No such announcement was forthcoming from Erdogan. Instead he became more aggressive. 

On April 25th (25/4/17) Erdogan launched a week of air and artillery strikes against anti-ISIL forces in both Syria and Iraq. This included the destruction of the SDF's command centre at al-Malikiyah/Derik in Shangri-La.

The fourth round of meetings in the Astana Process took place on May 3rd (3/5/17) and May 4th (4/5/17). Here the storm seemed to break. It was announced that fighting against all groups except ISIL and Al Qaeda would cease in four areas of Syria; The Sudetenland. Homs Province, Daraa Province and Quneitra Province.

Primarily this announcement was concerned with the trading relationship between Turkey and Russia. On November 24th 2015 (24/11/15) Turkey shot down a Russian jet that was conducting airstrikes against the Army of Conquest in what is now the Sudetenland. 

This triggered off tit-for-tat trade sanctions between the two nations. At the start of April 2017 all that was really left of this trade war was a Turkish ban on the import of Russian Wheat and a Russian ban on the import of Turkish Tomatoes. 

By making the Astana Four Areas announcement Russian President Vladimir Putin was able to get Erdogan to lift the Wheat ban while keeping the Tomato ban in place. However Turkey has since tried to back out of the deal by imposing new, prohibitive tariffs on Russian Wheat imports.

The announcement was also intended as little Russian kick up the bum to get the US to do more to control its nominal ally Turkey. 

Even what you call these Astana Four Areas is highly complex.

Inspired by calls for Shangri-La to be established as a formal Safe Haven under SDF control Erdogan wants these four areas to be called; "Safe Havens." For any responsible member of the international community that description would be extremely legally problematic.

Designating Shangri-La as a Safe Haven is legally very simple. In 2014 the UNSC passed resolution 2170. This is a Chapter 7 resolution authorising all means necessary to defeat ISIL.

It means that if ISIL operate in your country you are no longer considered a nation. Therefore those fighting ISIL can come into your country and do whatever they need to do to defeat ISIL. That includes establishing Safe Havens to protect civilians from ISIL.

The problem with the Astana Four Areas is that they are not intended to defeat ISIL or protect civilians from ISIL. In fact they're being established to protect groups that are allied with ISIL. Therefore turning them into legal Safe Havens would require a separate UNSC resolution.

The groups the Astana Four Areas are intended to protect are allied with ISIL and include Al Qaeda. UNSCR 2170 not only authorises but obligates nations to do everything in their power to defeat ISIL and Al Qaeda. As such UNSCR 2170 forbids the establishment of the Astana Four Areas as Safe Havens.

Russia has already brought the issue of the Astana Four Areas to the UNSC. This has very much annoyed the UNSC because they understand what a massive legal headache it presents. Russia's intention seems to be remind everyone how easy a step it would be by comparison to formalise Shangri-La and Afrin Canton as Safe Havens.

Aside from attempting to nudge the US into action at the UN Russia is also trying to nudge them into action on the ground in Syria. Specifically at a place called al-Tanf.

Al-Tanf is one of the main border crossings between Syria and Iraq. It is located around 280km (17 miles) east of Damascus, 180km (110 miles) south-east of Palmyra and around 160km (95 miles) north-west of the Iraqi town of Rutba.

Al-Tanf has long been used by Jordanian and British SOF's to train another armed faction within Syria known as the Southern Front. This is primarily made up of factions of the FSA. Recently the US has been trying to muscle in deploying its own SOF's to the al-Tanf base. I'm very tempted to designate it; "The Bobby Sands."

This is an area that I'm not particularly happy writing about because it is so far in the future. 

However once Shangri-La has been designated a Safe Haven and Garvaghy Road has been sealed we can start talking about an alliance between the SDF and the moderate elements of the Southern Front. Controlling around 60% of Syrian territory between them such an alliance would be an important step towards a political transition in Syria.

As they say though a journey of a thousand miles begins with a single step. If the US refuses or screws up that first step we can forget about any political transition. Instead it will simply be a case of the Syrians expelling the foreign Islamist forces and restoring complete control over all of their territory.

Almost on the day that the Astana Four Areas were announced the Syrians have been gently probing towards al-Tanf. The purpose being to remind the US of the need to start its journey. 

Unfortunately this all seems to have gone completely over the Americans heads. They've responded to the probing of al-Tanf with increasing aggression.

The first of the series of incidents at al-Tanf began on May 14th (14/5/17) with a Syrian convoy approaching the area. This prompted several days of discussions in which the US contacted Russia using deconfliction channels. Russia then contacted Syria, Iran and Turkey under the Astana Ceasefire mechanism. As was planned the Syrian vehicles didn't back off and the US conducted airstrikes against them on May 18th (18/5/17).

The second incident occurred on June 6th (6/6/17) when again a Syrian convoy approached the al-Tanf area. On this occasion the US didn't bother with communication instead immediately conducting airstrikes.

Invoking the language of the Astana Four Areas the US then unilaterally declared al-Tanf to be a deconfliction zone. As al-Tanf has not and currently is not being used in the fight against ISIL and associated groups that is not something the US can do without the consent of the Syrian government or that new UNSC resolution I mentioned.

The US however continued to aggressively escalate the situation. On June 14th (14/6/17) they deployed an advanced High Mobility Artillery Rocket System (HIMARS) rocket launching system to al-Tanf. The implication being that they intended to use the base and the weapons system to attack the Syrians rather than ISIL and associated groups.

What seems to be rendering the US unable to pick up the extremely heavy hints everyone is dropping for them is that they still seem to be in the grips of lunatic Neo-Conservative conspiracy theories.

Within Iraq the PMF have secured both the Rutba/al-Tanf and the Tal Safuq border crossing. Rather than being a necessary step to liberate all of Iraq's territory the US seems to be viewing this as an elaborate Iranian conspiracy to establish a land bridge across Iraq and Syria to Hezbollah in Lebanon.

On May 29th (29/5/17) twin suicide bombings tore through the Iraqi capital Baghdad including at the al-Fuqma Ice Cream Parlour. Combined these bombings killed 29 people. The attackers entered Iraq from Syria via Anbar Province. However that little detail seems complete irrelevant to the US.

In spewing this paranoid conspiracy theory the Neo-Conservatives have accidentally revealed why they created and supported groups like ISIL and the Army of Conquest in the first place.

Certainly since 2003 Shia dominated Iran, Shia dominated Iraq, Shia-led Syria and the Lebanese Shia group Hezbollah have been close allies. The Neo-Conservatives backed quasi-Sunni groups like ISIL and the Army of Conquest in the hope of destroying the land bridge that already existed between these allies.

So I don't believe that the PMF's recent movements are part of an Iranian conspiracy. However even if they were I don't see the recent developments as a win or a loss. Merely a return to the status quo.

The Neo-Conservatives of course have been doing all this in the name of Israel. For the past couple of days Israel has been taking pot-shots at southern Syria around the Golan Heights. In order to signal to the US that they can more than cope with the situation returning to what it has been since the 1980's.

Having been completely unable to grasp the situation at al-Tanf the US has stumbled into escalating the situation further. On June 6th (6/6/17) they forced the SDF to launch an assault on Raqqa. 

This is just a stunning strategic failure.

So far the fighting in Raqqa has been extremely light. That's because in the eight months the US has been hyping up the Raqqa operation ISIL have already largely fled the city in favour of coming to blow up a concert venue near you soon.

Due to the US' failure to seal Garvaghy Road prior to announcing plans for a Raqqa operation the only thing preventing ISIL from heading to particularly Libya and Europe are the Syrian forces who established a line of control back in early March. Europe in particular certainly hasn't given the Syrians much incentive to protect them from ISIL.

At worst the Raqqa operation is intended to get Kurdish elements of the SDF wiped out. This will allow Erdogan's forces to advance from Garvaghy Road into the vacuum restoring Shangri-La to ISIL's control. This is what the operation was planned to do all the way back in October 2016.

At best the Raqqa operation is intended to allow the US to declare that ISIL have been defeated allowing them to end their support for the SDF. Erdogan's forces in Garvaghy Road will then be free to attack the SDF restoring Shangri-La to ISIL control.

It seems the folly of the Raqqa operation is obvious to everyone except the Americans. So the Russians have been forced to give them another little nudge.

On June 18th (18/6/17) Syria flew one of their ancient, creaking and soon to be replaced Su-22 ground attack aircraft over SDF forces participating in the Raqqa operation. The intention being to highlight the strategic threat the Raqqa operation places the SDF under.

Unfortunately this too went completely over the Americans head's so they shot down the aircraft. The hint was dropped again on June 20th (20/6/17) only this time with a drone. Again the Americans missed the point and shot it down.

With the US seemingly unaware of its failings Erdogan has become emboldened. Rather than withdrawing forces from Garvaghy Road since last Thursday (22/6/17) Erdogan has been increasing the number of regular forces there.

Within Turkey the pro-Erdogan press are reporting those troops are being deployed for an imminent operation to expel the SDF from Afrin Canton. Thus linking the Sudetenland with Garvaghy Road.

Oh and if you were wondering I've been discreetly preparing this post since Friday (23/6/17).

16:35 on 27/6/17 (UK date).

Gotta Keep That Revolution Rolling

Over the night of June 13th (13/6/17) into June 14th (14/6/17) a fire completely destroyed the 120 apartment Grenfell Tower on the Lancaster West housing estate in the Kensington area of the UK city of London.

Almost as if they had time to plan the UK Labour Party used the fire as an opportunity incite public anger as part of a campaign against the governing Conservative Party. Amid this intense pressure the Prime Minister Theresa May made a number of hard to justify concessions to the Labour Party.

For example London's Labour Mayor Sadiq Khan called for a Public Inquiry and Prime Minister May granted it. Within the UK Public Inquires have a long history of being used to delay criminal investigations and protect the guilty for as long as possible.

Labour also demanded that an amnesty be granted for any illegal immigrants who were living in Grenfell Tower or any residents who had been illegally sub-letting their homes. Prime Minister May also granted those concessions.

The issue of sub-letting is a particularly worrying one because the UK had a General Election just on June 8th (8/6/17).

If a home is sub-let then a voting card is set out to the registered occupant at the address. As it is common to get more than one person of the same age and name living in the same city often a second voting card is sent out in error to where that person is actually living. That means that person gets two votes.

The constituency of Kensington & Chelsea where Grenfell Tower is located was decided by just 20 votes after several recounts. A race this tight normally automatically triggers an investigation because even a small amount of electoral fraud can materially alter the election result.

Prime Minister May's decision to waive the usual investigation into whether the Labour Party stole the election has obviously concerned leaders in many democratic nations. Particularly the European Union (EU).

On Thursday (22/6/17) evening Prime Minister May attended an EU leaders summit. There she briefly outlined her plans for the rights of immigrants and EU citizens - including voting rights - after Britain has left the EU.

This led to the other EU leaders to line up to condemn Prime Minister May for not doing enough on the 'immigration issue' and protecting the rights of the citizenry.

On Friday (23/6/17) lunchtime Kensington & Chelsea council made a gesture suggesting the Labour Party's freeride is coming to an end.

Another concession that Labour forced out of Prime Minister May is that the residents of Grenfell Tower would be re-homed within the borough. This is a ridiculous suggestion.

Absolutely no London borough or I think any local government in any nation has 600+ emergency accommodation spaces available. So usually people who need emergency accommodation are transferred to boroughs which have space available. After all its far from impossible to commute across London for work.

However due to Labour's demand Kensington & Chelsea are not able to do this instead being forced to place people in very expensive hotel accommodation.

At lunchtime Friday (23/6/17) Kensington & Chelsea council announced that it would no longer be paying the hotel bills of 20 residents of Grenfell Tower. Those people could then chose to take up emergency accommodation or make themselves homeless.

On Friday (23/6/17) evening the Labour controlled council of the London borough of Camden announced it was evacuating 161 residents from tower blocks due to overblown concerns of a fire risk similar to Grenfell Tower.

This evacuation has been an utter disaster. The Camden residents aren't even being offered emergency accommodation. Instead they're being forced to sleep on the floor in evacuation centres. Those who would rather live with the small risk and are refusing to leave their homes are being threatened with arrest by the police.

The intention of Labour council causing this much chaos is to breath new life into their campaign against the government. As soon as someone complains Labour activists can say; "Yes. But look what the evil Tories are doing in Kensington & Chelsea!"

Since the Grenfell Tower fire the spies grapevine has been full of rumours that the Labour Party not only exploited the tragedy but actually set the fire to give themselves something to exploit.

A specific name of the arsonist keeps coming up and in the last few days the discussion has really moved from if Labour set the fire to whether and when the UK is going to make this information public or if non-UK actors will have to release the information themselves.

In announcing the evacuation on national TV Camden Council leader Georgia Gould pledged to keep people safe in this scary time.

I was a London Labour Party activist scared I was about to be brought to justice for 79 counts of murder I'd certainly be looking for reassurance the party is going everything in its power to keep me safe and protect me.

12:50 on 24/6/17 (UK date).

Operation Featherweight: Month 36, Week 1, Day 3.

This really should be read as a direct continuation of Monday's (19/6/17) post; http://watchitdie.blogspot.co.uk/2017/06/operation-featherweight-mon-35-week-5.html

In that post I covered how the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) have lost control of all of the Iraqi city of Mosul save for parts of the Old City district. I also covered how ISIL have lost control of the 28,000kmsq (16,800milesq) of territory between Mosul and Iraq's border with Syria to the west.

It almost goes without saying that ISIL have not taken this string of defeats in good grace.

As I've mentioned on May 19th (19/5/17) ISIL were being liberated from the Hay 17 Tammuz district of Mosul. Their response to this was to set fire to a building in which 8 civilian families made up of a total of 23 people were sheltering.

This served absolutely no military purpose and was done purely out of spite. Due to the ongoing fighting it took four days for those 23 bodies to be recovered and buried.

Due to that and other similar incidents the Iraqi Security Forces (ISF) have shifted their tactics within Mosul.

When the operation began back in October 2016 the focus was on getting civilians to remain within their homes while the fighting raged around them. The ISF have recently been much more focused on raiding house to help the civilians escape before trying to fully oust ISIL from an area.

However even this has brought risk to Mosul's population. ISIL want to use these civilians as human shields so absolutely do not want them to escape. Therefore as the ISF have move towards evacuations ISIL have intensified their use of snipers to shoot down the civilians as they flee.

This is a tactic that ISIL have been using throughout the battle for Mosul. However a particularly nasty period occurred at the start of June. Here ISIL snipers murdered 70 civilians fleeing the Zanjili district in a five day period. The bodies were left rotting in the streets until Zanjili district was liberated on June 5th (5/6/17) allowing them to be recovered.

The threat to civilians from ISIL snipers within particularly the Zanjili district had become so bad that on June 3rd (3/6/17) that the New Zealand air force were forced to drop White Phosphorus bombs to create a smokesceen.

Igniting on contact with moisture in the air White Phosphorus is an extremely effective way of producing a smokescreen. However because it also ignites on contact with the moisture in the skin it produces truly horrific burns. Therefore to use White Phosphorus in a populated area is an extreme measure that can only be taken when the risk to civilians from snipers is higher than the risk of them coming into contact with White Phosphorus.

Sadly in response to their looming defeat in and around Mosul ISIL's vengeance against Iraq's civilians has not been limited only to Mosul.

On May 29th (29/5/17) twin bombings struck Baghdad. The first targeted the al-Fuqma Ice Cream Parlour in the Karrada district of this city. This bombing killed 15 people and wounded 75. The second bombing targeted the Pension Office in the Shawaka district of the city. This killed 14 and wounded 37.

The bombing of the al-Fuqma Ice Cream Parlour was particularly spiteful because it occurred just after sunset on the second night of Ramadan. During Ramadan Muslims fast throughout the day and as soon as the sun sets they start feasting. In a very hot country such as Iraq and particularly if you have young children the first thing you want to eat is ice cream.

So the al-Fuqma Ice Cream Parlour was absolutely packed at the time of the bombing and was chosen specifically to kill young families as they were celebrating Islam's most important religious festival.

To their credit the staff at the al-Fuqma Ice Cream Parlour were able to re-open and was once again packed with families celebrating Ramadan on June 3rd (3/6/17). Just five days after the bombing.

On June 9th (9/6/17) ISIL conducted two further bomb attacks close to Baghdad. The first of these targeted the Iman Husayn Shrine in Karbala around 100km (60 miles) south-west of Baghdad. This wounded 5. The second struck a market in the town of Musayib around 70km (40 miles) south of Baghdad. This killed 21 and wounded 30.

On June 10th (10/6/17) ISIL launched a marauding style attack on the town of Shargat. This sits around 130km (80 miles) south of Mosul along the Tigris River. 13 ISIL fighters went on the rampage inside the town before being killed by the ISF. There is no word on any civilian casualties.

As I've said within Mosul ISIL are now just limited to the Old City district. Their defences seem to be centred around the Grand Mosque of al-Nuri which sits just north of the al-Shaziani/Nineveh Street junction.

Built in 1173 the al-Nuri Mosque is famous for its tilting Minaret which has been dubbed; "al-Hadba/The Hunchback." Some say that this 45 metre (148 feet) Minaret tilts because the Prophet Mohammad knocked into it as he was ascending to heaven. Others say it is bowing its head towards the tomb of the Virgin Mary which Iraqi Christians claim is in near-by Erbil.

The al-Nuri Mosque is considered of great importance to ISIL because it is where Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi gave his only public sermon after declaring ISIL to be an Islamic Caliphate and he to be its Caliph. Technically al-Baghdadi actually made the declaration of the Caliphate in private in Mosque in eastern Mosul.

On March 17th (17/3/17) the Federal Police element of the ISF entered the Old City district from the al-Tob neighbourhood to the south and the Corniche area to the east. The then proceeded to advance north along al-Shaziani Street and west along Nineveh Street towards the al-Nuri Mosque. By May 4th (4/5/17) the Federal Police had succeeded in surrounding the al-Nuri Mosque on three sides.

On Sunday (18/6/17) the Counter Terrorism Force (CTF/Golden Division) element opened up a new axis entering the Old City from the north-west. Since then they have made dramatic progress. By Tuesday (20/6/17) they had advanced east along Nineveh Street to around 30 metres/yards of the junction with al-Shaziani Street and the al-Nuri Mosque killing around 300 ISIL fighters in the process.

Yesterday (21/6/17) evening ISIL blew up the al-Nuri Mosque. They claim that it was hit by a US airstrike. However I have seen footage of the explosion and it clearly shows demolition charges placed within the building being detonated in sequence. The wrong sequence I may add.

ISIL's defence of Mosul and the Old City in particular has been entirely focused on the defence of the al-Nuri Mosque. The fact that they have now destroyed it shows that ISIL's understand that they have no chance of defending it and will soon be defeated.

In short ISIL have decided that if they can't have the al-Nuri Mosque then no-one can.

Despite this loss of nearly 850 years of Islamic culture the Golden Division have continued their advance on the site where the al-Nuri Mosque used to stands. They now said to just be one street away.

On May 18th (18/5/17) I said I wouldn't be making firm plans for that coming weekend because the destruction of a single building could cause ISIL's defences in Mosul to collapse completely. Although I didn't name it the building I was thinking of was the al-Nuri Mosque.

As such I think the announcement that the battle is over and Mosul has finally and fully been liberated will be coming in the next three to four days at most.

17:25 on 22/6/17 (UK date).

Operation Featherweight: Month 35, Week 5, Day 2.

In the summer of 2014 the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) overran northern Iraq. This included the city of Mosul which has functioned as ISIL's de facto capital in the country every since.

On October 17th 2016 (17/10/16) an operation was launched to liberate Mosul from ISIL. This was intended as a combined operation.

The Iraqi Kurdish Peshmerga and the Iraqi Popular Mobilisation Forces (PMF) were given the responsibility for securing the area surrounding Mosul. The Iraqi Security Forces (ISF) had responsibility for liberating the city itself. All aspects of the operation are supported by the US-led coalition, Combined Joint Task Force: Operation Inherent Resolve.

The first phase of the operation was to surround Mosul on three sides. The northern Tel Skuf Front, the eastern Kalak Front and the southern Qarrayah/Gwer Front. This was completed with the liberation of Hamman al-Alil on the Qarrayah front on November 7th 2016 (7/11/16).

The second phase was to liberate the area of Mosul that sits to the east of the Tigris River. This eastern half is sometimes referred to as; "The Left Bank." This phase was begun before the first phase had been completed with the ISF entering the al-Quds neighbourhood from the Gogjali neighbourhood on the Kalak Front on November 1st 2016 (1/11/16).

This second phase was completed with the liberation of all of the eastern half of Mosul on January 24th 2017 (24/1/17).

The third phase of the operation was to liberate the area of Mosul that sits to the west of the Tigris River. This western half is sometimes referred to as; "The Right Bank." Following a short and planned paused this third phase began on February 19th (19/2/17) with the ISF advancing north from Hamman al-Alil.

On February 23rd (23/2/17) the ISF entered western Mosul itself. They did this on two axis;

The Federal Police axis entered western Mosul from the Mosul International Airport/Ghazlani Military base at the southern most tip of the city. They then advanced north towards the Old City district of the city clearing neighbourhoods as they went.

The Counter-Terrorism Force (CTF/Golden Division) axis entered the city from the al-Rayyan neighbourhood at the south-western tip of the city. They then advanced north-east towards the Old City district of Mosul clearing neighbourhoods as they went.

On the southern axis by March 21st (21/3/17) the Federal Police had succeeded in liberating the al-Tob neighbourhood which sits directly to the south of the Old City district. They had also liberated the Corniche area that sits between the Old City district and the Tigris River between the al-Jamhuriya Bridge to the south and the Old Bridge to the north.

From there the Federal Police set about liberating the Old City district. They did this in two axis advancing north from the al-Tob neighbourhood along al-Shaziani Street while at the same time advancing west from the Corniche along Nineveh Street. In both directions the Federal Police cleared the buildings adjoining the streets as they advanced.

The Federal Police's primary objective within the Old City is the al-Nuri Mosque which sits just north of the al-Shaziani/Nineveh Street junction. As one of the places where ISIL's leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi declared the group to be an Islamic State this seems to be where ISIL have concentrated the majority of their fighters in Mosul.

As of May 4th (4/5/17) the Federal Police had succeeded in reaching the al-Nuri Mosque. They've surrounded it on three sides.

On the south-western axis as of April 20th (20/4/17) the Golden Division had established a line of control between the al-Nasr neighbourhood on the western outskirts of Mosul to the boundary of the Zanjili district which sits directly north of the Old City district.

On May 4th (4/5/17) the 9th Armoured Division and combined Rapid Reaction Force element of the ISF opened a third northern axis.

Entering from the Musaharrifah district on the northern outskirts its first objective was to sweep south placing a cordon around the 17 Tammuz, Hay al-Uraybi, Hay ar-Rabi, Hay ar-Rafi and Zanjili districts. These are the five districts remaining under ISIL's control north of the Old City district.

On May 9th (9/5/17) the Golden Division and northern axis combined on the boundary of the Hay al-Rabi district. This meant that the western side of the cordon had been established. Progress in establishing the eastern side of the cordon has been much slower with the western side of the Third Bridge not being liberated until May 22nd (22/5/17).

However this did not stop the ISF moving to liberate the areas inside where the cordon had already been established.

On May 13th (13/5/17) the Hay ar-Rabi district along the Third Bridge road had been liberated. On May 19th (19/5/17) the Hay al-Uraybi district directly adjacent to the Hay ar-Rabi district had been liberated.

On May 20th (20/5/17) the Hay ar-Rafi district between the Hay al-Uraybi district and the Tigris River was liberated. This left ISIL in control of just the Zanjili district, the Old City district and parts of the 17 Tammuz district. It also marked the completion of the Golden Division's offensive mission within Mosul.

On May 21st (21/5/17) the entire 17 Tammuz district was completely liberated.

Having liberated the western side of the Third Bridge on May 22nd (22/5/17) the northern axis then launched an operation to liberate the al-Jamhuri hospital complex directly to the south of the Third Bridge. This operation was successfully completed on May 23rd (23/5/17).

Following a short pause on May 27th (27/5/17) the northern axis then pushed deep into Zanjili district from the hospital complex and from the Qahib al-Ban neighbourhood which was liberated by the Rapid Reaction Force on March 30th (30/3/17).

The Zanjili district is actually made up of several neighbourhoods.

There is the Zanjili neighbourhood itself. Then there is the Saha neighbourhood which is dominated by the hospital complex. The Shifa neighbourhood which sits of the Saha neighbourhood. Finally there is the Bab Sinjar neighbourhood which sits south of the Shifa neighbourhood directly on the boundary with the Old City district.

On June 7th (7/6/17) the Zanjili neighbourhood was liberated. This left ISIL in control of just the Shifa neighbourhood and the Bab Sinjar neighbourhood along with the Old City district.

On June 11th (11/6/17) an operation to liberate Shifa and Bab Sinjar neighbourhoods was launched. On June 15th (15/6/17) the ISF succeeded in liberating Bab Sinjar neighbourhood. On June 17th (17/6/17) the ISF succeeded in liberating Shifa neighbourhood.

This leaves ISIL in control of only the Old City district of Mosul.

Due to the advances of the Federal Police axis it actually means ISIL are really only in control of the areas of the Old City district between Nineveh Street to the south and the Fifth Bridge road to the north. Although the actual line of control is more jagged then that and constantly shifting.

Having completed their offensive mission in Mosul on May 20th (20/5/17) the Golden Division have been having a little bit of a break. However yesterday (18/6/17) they've found a new mission. The Golden Division have entered the Old City district from the north-west from the junction of the Fifth Bridge road and Ibrahim al-Athir Street.

I know that for more then a month now I've been saying that we are on the brink of the total liberation of Mosul. However now we really are. ISIL are limited to just a handful of streets and buildings within the Old City.

As I've been saying from the start one of the main problems with the Mosul operation has been to only surround the city on three sides. The entire area to the west of Mosul designated; "The Falls Road" was left open in order to allow ISIL fighters to flee to Syria and from Syria up the Garvaghy Road to Turkey and the rest of the World.

Fortunately the PMF stepped in. On October 29th 2016 (29/10/16) they opened a western front advancing from the southern Qarrayh Front to the town of Tal Afar which sits about 80km (48 miles) west of Mosul on the H47 Highway between Mosul and Iraq's border with Syria.

The PMF completed this western front sealing the Falls Road with the liberation of Tal Afar airport on November 16th 2016 (16/11/16). This is known as; "The Qarrayah-Tal Afar Line." Frustratingly Iraq's neighbour Turkey has forbidden the PMF from liberating Tal Afar itself.

On February 26th 2017 (26/2/17) the PMF along with the ISF's 9th Armoured Division moved to tighten the western cordon on Mosul. They did this by advancing from the town of Tal Zalat around 20km (12 miles) west of Mosul to the town of Badush around 12km (7 miles) north-west of Mosul.

The establishment of what is known as; "The Tal Zalat-Badush Line" was completed on March 26th (26/3/17) with the liberation of Badush. It is this which allowed the ISF's 9th Armoured Division to open the northern axis within Mosul.

Since then the PMF have focused their efforts on liberating everything between the Qarrayah-Tal Afar line and Iraq's border with Syria.

On April 25th (25/4/17) the PMF launched an operation to liberate the entire Hadar/Hatra district. This covers roughly 16,800kmsq (10,000milesq) south-west of Mosul to the rough line between Baiji in Iraq and Al Mayadin in Syria. At its heart it has a vast archaeological site dating back to the 2nd Century BC.

On April 26th (26/4/17) the PMF succeeded in liberating the Hadar/Hatra district which it must be said is largely uninhabited desert. Although it is not glamorous work it is work that needs to be done.

After liberating the Hadar/Hatra district the PMF set about liberating the al-Qairawan district. This is really the middle third of the area between Mosul and the Iraq/Syria border. At really its northern most tip of its centre you have the now infamous town of Sinjar/Shingal.

The PMF set about liberating the al-Qairawan district on May 12th (12/5/17). On May 14th (14/5/17) they had succeeded in separating Sinjar/Shingal from the al-Qairawan district. On May 23rd (23/5/17) the PMF fully liberated al-Qairawan district.

Following the liberation of al-Qairawan district set about liberating the al-Ba'aj district. This sits between the al-Qairawan district and the Iraq/Syria border. The PMF began this operation on May 25th (25/5/17).

On May 29th (29/5/17) the PMF reached the Iraq/Syria border along the H47 Highway. On June 4th (4/6/17) the PMF liberated the town of al-Ba'aj - the main town in the al-Ba'aj district.

On June 7th (7/6/17) the PMF liberated the village of Tal Safuq which sits directly on the Iraq/Syria border.

With the exception of Tal Afar the liberation of Tal Safuq marks the completion of the PMF's operations in the Falls Road. An operation that has seen them liberate some 28,000kmsq (16,800milesq) of territory.

At around 17:55 on 19/6/17 (UK date) I will have to pick this up after dinner or possibly tomorrow.