Particularly in the US much of the news recently has been dominated by the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK/North Korea). This coverage strikes me as being out of all proportion with the size of the issue.
The DPRK completed its first successful test of a nuclear Atom Bomb (A-bomb) back in 2006. In 2016 the DPRK completed its first successful test of the much more powerful Hydrogen Bomb (H-Bomb). With these two thresholds passed the DPRK's nuclear program is now complete. That meanss we can't now stop the DPRK becoming a nuclear armed state. It already is one.
One of the main drivers of the DPRK's rapid progress was former US President Barack Obama's support for the DPRK as a way to exert pressure on the DPRK's immediate neighbour China. There are even rumours that Obama supplied the DPRK with missile control software to make them more of a threat. Believe it or not massive basketball fan and DPRK President Kim Jong-Un is far more pro-American than pro-Chinese.
A prime example of Obama's strategy is the Terminal High Altitude Air Defence (THAAD) system that he deployed to the Republic of Korea (RoK/South Korea) right at the end of his term.
As the name suggests THAAD defends against high altitude missiles. Missiles fired from the DPRK at either the RoK or Japan would be low to medium altitude missiles which THAAD can't intercept. THAAD batteries stationed in the RoK or Japan would be equally useless against high altitude missiles fired at the US. Although they are high altitude missiles they would still pass over the RoK and Japan at low to medium altitude.
What THAAD does have though is the extremely powerful AN/TPY-2 Radar system. This has a range of 1000km (600 miles). So a THAAD system deployed in the RoK is able to monitor in real time everything going on inside China as far west as the capital Beijing.
Obviously Obama is now no longer US President and he was not replaced by Hillary Clinton. The RoK certainly helped in that. So what's really needed now is for the situation to be allowed to settle.
However on April 6th (6/4/17) US President Donald Trump met with Chinese Premier Xi Jinping in Florida, US. Following this meeting President Trump deployed the USS Carl Vinson carrier strike group to the coast of the RoK is a show of strength.
The problem is that on April 15th (15/4/17) the DPRK marked its national day - the Day of the Sun. The DPRK normally marks this event with shows of its military strength including weapons tests. This year they conducted a failed missile test. If that test hadn't failed or the DPRK had gone further with a H-Bomb test it would have put huge pressure on President Trump to make a further show of strength.
Having already deployed the Carl Vinson group President Trump's only real room for escalate would be a strike on the DPRK. The DPRK would likely respond with conventional artillery strikes on the RoK capital Seoul.
Such strikes on Seoul are expected to kill 100,000 civilians an hour. Every hour until they stop or until all of Seoul's 20m civilians are dead.
17:00 on 18/4/17 (UK date).
Tuesday, 18 April 2017
Saturday, 15 April 2017
So Do Turkey's Vote For Christmas?
In 1994 Recep Tayyip Erdogan became the Mayor of the Turkish city of Istanbul. He represented the Islamist Welfare Party (WP).
In 1998 Erdogan's political career hit a little snag. As Mayor he gave a speech calling for his supporters to be the soldiers of Islam, the Mosques their barracks, the Domes their helmets and the Minarets their bayonets.
For this call to religious war the Welfare Party was disbanded, Erdogan was stripped of his Mayorship and was imprisoned for inciting religious hatred.
Upon his release from prison Erdogan formed the Islamist Justice & Development Party (AKP). In 2001 the AKP were elected the largest party in the Turkish Parliament.
However Erdogan's political career hit another little snag. His conviction prevented him from taking up the office of Prime Minister. So the AKP made Abdullah Gul Prime Minister with one task and one task alone - quashing Erdogan's conviction to allow him to become Prime Minister.
In 2014 Erdogan's career hit another snag. He exceeded the term limits on Prime Ministers laid out in Turkey's constitution. So Erdogan simply took up the role of President.
As with many Parliamentary Republics this role is largely ceremonial with no executive power. However Erdogan set about using the role to change Turkey's constitution to make the office of President the executive power within the country.
In June 2015 Erdogan's career hit another snag. Voters in the General Election denied the AKP the majority it needed to change the constitution.
So Erdogan simply declared war on Turkey's Kurdish population and called for a second General Election in November 2015.
Despite wrapping himself in the national flag Erdogan's career still hit a snag at the November election. Although voters gave the AKP a simple Parliamentary majority they denied them the super majority needed to change the constitution without a public referendum.
That referendum takes place on Sunday (16/4/17). Easter Sunday. In the middle of Passover.
Erdogan's constitution reforms will see the office of Prime Minister abolished and the office of President become the sole executive power within Turkey. At least until 2029 that President will be Recep Tayyip Erdogan.
If Erdogan doesn't abolish Presidential term limits during that time it is expected that his son-in-law Berat Albayrak will rule as President until 2044.
In calling for these constitutional reforms Erdogan has likened them to other democracies that use the Presidential system such as the United States and France. However there are huge differences between those countries and Erdogan's proposals;
In both France and the US national spending - the budget - is under the control of the legislative branch. Congress in the US and the Assemble Nationale in France. Under Erdogan's plan Turkey's national budget would be entirely under his control. Erdogan's wealth already far exceeds his legitimate income.
Both within France and the US the President's cabinet needs to be approved by the legislative branch. Some nearly three months after US President Trump took up office his full cabinet has still not been approved by Congress. Under Erdogan's plans Turkey's Parliament will not be able to approve or disapprove of any political appointment. That will be at the sole discretion of Erdogan alone.
One of the most important functions of the legislative branch both in the US and France is to keep a check on the President's political appointments. For this purpose they are able to set-up investigative committees and legally compel anyone to appear before them to testify under oath.
Erdogan's proposals forbid the Turkish Parliament from questioning both himself or his political appointees. Instead they may only submit written questions which do not legally require an answer.
In both the US and France it is the job of the legislative branch to appoint Judges to the Supreme Constitutional Court. Under Erdogan's proposal he will have sole responsibility for appointing Judges and dismissing them if he likes.
It is perhaps little surprise then that the Venice Commission expert panel that advises the Council of Europe on constitutional matters describe Erdogan's plans as;
"A dangerous step backwards that lacks the necessary checks and balances to safeguard against (Erdogan's) becoming an authoritarian regime."
Even the US Non-Governmental Organisation (NGO) Human Rights Watch (HRW) who have long supported Erdogan's actions in Iraq, Syria and Egypt describe Erdogan's proposal as;
"A huge threat to human rights, the rule of law and (Turkey's) democratic future."
Sadly Turks don't have to imagine what life will be like for them if Erdogan is able to change the constitution. Long before his proposals were approved by Parliament let alone a date for a referendum being set Erdogan imposed his new regime on Turkey.
On July 21st 2016 (21/7/17) Erdogan imposed a State of Emergency on Turkey which remains in place.
As with many States of Emergency Turkey's allows for detention without trial, warrantless search & seizure, a ban on public gatherings and the closure of semi-public buildings such as businesses.
It also allows for the complete censorship of all media within the country. The fact that this provision in particular is still in place has meant that ahead of the referendum almost all of Turkey's media has supported Erdogan's proposal. Under threat of closure.
Unusually Turkey's State of Emergency removes all power from the Prime Minister and places it in the hands of the President. This is exactly the situation Erdogan wants to make permanent through changing the constitution.
Under the State of Emergency President Erdogan has the power to write his own laws which are in place for a month without review by the legislative branch. At no point are these new laws subject to review by Turkey's Courts. Not even the Supreme Court.
This is known as rule by dictat. It is the mark of a dictatorship.
The suspension of Habeas Corpus has allowed Erdogan to imprison 40,000 people. These include Selahattin Demirtas the co-leader of the People's Democratic Party (HDP) who oppose Erdogan's constitutional reforms. He is currently facing 142 years in prison.
Aside from the mass jailings Erdogan has also added more then 100,000 people to a blacklist of undesirables. This strips them of their national identity number leaving them unable to work, travel or vote in this referendum.
The "crimes" that have seen people labelled as undesirable include holding savings accounts with high street banks which Erdogan now disapproves of.
On March 30th (30/3/17) 21 journalists which Erdogan has imprisoned appeared in Court. They were all acquitted. Erdogan's response was to have them all re-arrested before they could be freed from prison. The Judges who acquitted them have now been added to Erdogan's list of undesirables.
I think it is fair to assume that AKP supporters do not like me very much. Erdogan in particular seems to despise me personally.
So whatever I say about this referendum is likely to have the opposite effect. I will say this though;
Do you remember in June 2011 when Erdogan promised you that a vote for the AKP would mean prosperity and stability for Turkey?
Do you remember in June 2015 when Erdogan promised you that a vote for the AKP would mean prosperity and stability for Turkey
Do you remember in November 2015 when Erdogan promised you that a vote for the AKP would mean prosperity and stability for Turkey?
Well how's that going for you?
21:20 on 15/4/17 (UK date).
Edited at around 14:30 on 17/4/17 (UK date) to add;
Allegedly they do.
With 99% of 49,458,338 votes counted the Yes campaign are in the lead with 25,150,013 votes (50.8%) against the No campaign with 23,770,203 votes (48.1%). With this Erdogan has declared victory.
However Turkey's two main opposition parties the Republican People's Party (CHP) and the Democratic People's Party (HDP) are both challenging the result.
The main element of both their challenges is the decision taken while voting was taking place to allow ballots papers not bearing the official seal to be counted. This is obviously a very serious matter because without an official seal a ballot paper is just a piece of paper. It is very easy for people to remove official ballot papers and replace them with unofficial ballots papers changing the outcome of the vote.
Initially the CHP have challenged 37% of all votes cast - some 18,299,585 votes. However they estimate the number of ballots effected could be as high as 60% - 29,675,002 votes. Both of these figures are significantly larger then the difference of 1,379,810 between the Yes and No campaigns.
Added to that the Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) who were monitoring the referendum vote have published their preliminary findings. They have described the vote as falling far below the expected international standards of a free and fair vote.
Apart from the issue of uncertified ballots being counted the OSCE were also critical of the coverage the vote was given under the State of Emergency. They found that an unlevel playing field had been created in which the Yes campaign was given unfair prominence and that it went unchallenged on a multitude of lies it told to voters.
So I've got a feeling that this issue is one that is going to run and run for a long time yet.
Erdogan however has declared the matter closed and is pushing ahead with his reforms. That should hardly be a surprise because he put many of his reforms in place back in July 2016.
14:50 on 17/4/17 (UK date).
In 1998 Erdogan's political career hit a little snag. As Mayor he gave a speech calling for his supporters to be the soldiers of Islam, the Mosques their barracks, the Domes their helmets and the Minarets their bayonets.
For this call to religious war the Welfare Party was disbanded, Erdogan was stripped of his Mayorship and was imprisoned for inciting religious hatred.
Upon his release from prison Erdogan formed the Islamist Justice & Development Party (AKP). In 2001 the AKP were elected the largest party in the Turkish Parliament.
However Erdogan's political career hit another little snag. His conviction prevented him from taking up the office of Prime Minister. So the AKP made Abdullah Gul Prime Minister with one task and one task alone - quashing Erdogan's conviction to allow him to become Prime Minister.
In 2014 Erdogan's career hit another snag. He exceeded the term limits on Prime Ministers laid out in Turkey's constitution. So Erdogan simply took up the role of President.
As with many Parliamentary Republics this role is largely ceremonial with no executive power. However Erdogan set about using the role to change Turkey's constitution to make the office of President the executive power within the country.
In June 2015 Erdogan's career hit another snag. Voters in the General Election denied the AKP the majority it needed to change the constitution.
So Erdogan simply declared war on Turkey's Kurdish population and called for a second General Election in November 2015.
Despite wrapping himself in the national flag Erdogan's career still hit a snag at the November election. Although voters gave the AKP a simple Parliamentary majority they denied them the super majority needed to change the constitution without a public referendum.
That referendum takes place on Sunday (16/4/17). Easter Sunday. In the middle of Passover.
Erdogan's constitution reforms will see the office of Prime Minister abolished and the office of President become the sole executive power within Turkey. At least until 2029 that President will be Recep Tayyip Erdogan.
If Erdogan doesn't abolish Presidential term limits during that time it is expected that his son-in-law Berat Albayrak will rule as President until 2044.
In calling for these constitutional reforms Erdogan has likened them to other democracies that use the Presidential system such as the United States and France. However there are huge differences between those countries and Erdogan's proposals;
In both France and the US national spending - the budget - is under the control of the legislative branch. Congress in the US and the Assemble Nationale in France. Under Erdogan's plan Turkey's national budget would be entirely under his control. Erdogan's wealth already far exceeds his legitimate income.
Both within France and the US the President's cabinet needs to be approved by the legislative branch. Some nearly three months after US President Trump took up office his full cabinet has still not been approved by Congress. Under Erdogan's plans Turkey's Parliament will not be able to approve or disapprove of any political appointment. That will be at the sole discretion of Erdogan alone.
One of the most important functions of the legislative branch both in the US and France is to keep a check on the President's political appointments. For this purpose they are able to set-up investigative committees and legally compel anyone to appear before them to testify under oath.
Erdogan's proposals forbid the Turkish Parliament from questioning both himself or his political appointees. Instead they may only submit written questions which do not legally require an answer.
In both the US and France it is the job of the legislative branch to appoint Judges to the Supreme Constitutional Court. Under Erdogan's proposal he will have sole responsibility for appointing Judges and dismissing them if he likes.
It is perhaps little surprise then that the Venice Commission expert panel that advises the Council of Europe on constitutional matters describe Erdogan's plans as;
"A dangerous step backwards that lacks the necessary checks and balances to safeguard against (Erdogan's) becoming an authoritarian regime."
Even the US Non-Governmental Organisation (NGO) Human Rights Watch (HRW) who have long supported Erdogan's actions in Iraq, Syria and Egypt describe Erdogan's proposal as;
"A huge threat to human rights, the rule of law and (Turkey's) democratic future."
Sadly Turks don't have to imagine what life will be like for them if Erdogan is able to change the constitution. Long before his proposals were approved by Parliament let alone a date for a referendum being set Erdogan imposed his new regime on Turkey.
On July 21st 2016 (21/7/17) Erdogan imposed a State of Emergency on Turkey which remains in place.
As with many States of Emergency Turkey's allows for detention without trial, warrantless search & seizure, a ban on public gatherings and the closure of semi-public buildings such as businesses.
It also allows for the complete censorship of all media within the country. The fact that this provision in particular is still in place has meant that ahead of the referendum almost all of Turkey's media has supported Erdogan's proposal. Under threat of closure.
Unusually Turkey's State of Emergency removes all power from the Prime Minister and places it in the hands of the President. This is exactly the situation Erdogan wants to make permanent through changing the constitution.
Under the State of Emergency President Erdogan has the power to write his own laws which are in place for a month without review by the legislative branch. At no point are these new laws subject to review by Turkey's Courts. Not even the Supreme Court.
This is known as rule by dictat. It is the mark of a dictatorship.
The suspension of Habeas Corpus has allowed Erdogan to imprison 40,000 people. These include Selahattin Demirtas the co-leader of the People's Democratic Party (HDP) who oppose Erdogan's constitutional reforms. He is currently facing 142 years in prison.
Aside from the mass jailings Erdogan has also added more then 100,000 people to a blacklist of undesirables. This strips them of their national identity number leaving them unable to work, travel or vote in this referendum.
The "crimes" that have seen people labelled as undesirable include holding savings accounts with high street banks which Erdogan now disapproves of.
On March 30th (30/3/17) 21 journalists which Erdogan has imprisoned appeared in Court. They were all acquitted. Erdogan's response was to have them all re-arrested before they could be freed from prison. The Judges who acquitted them have now been added to Erdogan's list of undesirables.
I think it is fair to assume that AKP supporters do not like me very much. Erdogan in particular seems to despise me personally.
So whatever I say about this referendum is likely to have the opposite effect. I will say this though;
Do you remember in June 2011 when Erdogan promised you that a vote for the AKP would mean prosperity and stability for Turkey?
Do you remember in June 2015 when Erdogan promised you that a vote for the AKP would mean prosperity and stability for Turkey
Do you remember in November 2015 when Erdogan promised you that a vote for the AKP would mean prosperity and stability for Turkey?
Well how's that going for you?
21:20 on 15/4/17 (UK date).
Edited at around 14:30 on 17/4/17 (UK date) to add;
Allegedly they do.
With 99% of 49,458,338 votes counted the Yes campaign are in the lead with 25,150,013 votes (50.8%) against the No campaign with 23,770,203 votes (48.1%). With this Erdogan has declared victory.
However Turkey's two main opposition parties the Republican People's Party (CHP) and the Democratic People's Party (HDP) are both challenging the result.
The main element of both their challenges is the decision taken while voting was taking place to allow ballots papers not bearing the official seal to be counted. This is obviously a very serious matter because without an official seal a ballot paper is just a piece of paper. It is very easy for people to remove official ballot papers and replace them with unofficial ballots papers changing the outcome of the vote.
Initially the CHP have challenged 37% of all votes cast - some 18,299,585 votes. However they estimate the number of ballots effected could be as high as 60% - 29,675,002 votes. Both of these figures are significantly larger then the difference of 1,379,810 between the Yes and No campaigns.
Added to that the Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) who were monitoring the referendum vote have published their preliminary findings. They have described the vote as falling far below the expected international standards of a free and fair vote.
Apart from the issue of uncertified ballots being counted the OSCE were also critical of the coverage the vote was given under the State of Emergency. They found that an unlevel playing field had been created in which the Yes campaign was given unfair prominence and that it went unchallenged on a multitude of lies it told to voters.
So I've got a feeling that this issue is one that is going to run and run for a long time yet.
Erdogan however has declared the matter closed and is pushing ahead with his reforms. That should hardly be a surprise because he put many of his reforms in place back in July 2016.
14:50 on 17/4/17 (UK date).
Monday, 10 April 2017
Operation Featherweight: Month 33, Week 3, Day 6.
In 1994 Recep Tayyip Erdogan became Mayor of the Turkish city of Istanbul. He represented the Islamist Welfare Party (RP).
At a Welfare Party rally in 1997 Erdogan recited a poem by famous Turkish poet Ziya Goklap. However Erdogan changed the words to instruct his Islamist followers that; "The mosques are our barracks, the domes our helmets, the minarets our bayonets and the faithful our soldiers" in a call for his holy Muslim army to overthrow the secular Turkish state.
Obviously this call for armed insurrection and religious warfare did not go down well with the secular Turkish state. So Erdogan was sent to prison for 10 months and the Welfare Party was disbanded.
Upon release from prison Erdogan formed the Islamist Justice & Development Party (AKP) who are sometimes known simply as; "The AK." In the 2002 the AKP won a large Parliamentary majority. However due to his conviction for inciting violence and racial hatred Erdogan was unable to take up the post of Prime Minister.
So the AKP simply made Abdullah Gul Prime Minister. Gul's one task as Prime Minister was to quash Erdogan's conviction allowing him to take over as Prime Minister in early 2003. Erdogan then set about pursuing a Neo-Ottoman strategy. In short he wants to re-establish the Ottoman Empire - the last Islamist Caliphate.
In 2011 the people of Tunisia overthrow their dictator Ben Ali and shortly afterwards the people of Egypt overthrew their dictator. Amid all this upheaval Erdogan saw an opportunity to make his dream of a new Ottoman Empire a reality.
Two nations that are key to the original Ottoman Empire are Syria and Egypt. On 24th of August 1516 the Ottoman Empire faced the Mamluk Empire in the Battle of Dabiq Meadow which is around 50km (30 miles) north-east of the modern Syrian city of Aleppo.
Victory at the Battle of Dabiq Meadow gave the Ottoman Empire total victory over the Mamluk Empire. With the Mamluk Empire being based in Egypt this extended the Ottoman Empire all the way across the Middle-East, North-Africa (MENA) region.
So in early spring of 2011 Syria Erdogan set about backing the Islamist terror groups that became the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) and the Army of Conquest/Jaish al-Fatah (JAF) to overthrow the Syrian government. As a sign of their dedication to the dream of a new Ottoman Empire ISIL publish an online propaganda magazine called; "Dabiq."
In Egypt Erdogan thought his task would be easier. The Egyptian people that already overthrown the government of Hosni Mubarak. Therefore all Erdogan needed to do was make sure the Sunni-Islamist Muslim Brotherhood's candidate Mohamed Morsi representing the Freedom & Justice Party (FJP) won the upcoming Presidential election.
Initially Erdogan achieved this aim. When Morsi was elected on June 22nd 2012 (22/6/12) Erdogan celebrated by flying a Turkish F4 Phantom into Syrian airspace in order to have it shot-down. The hope being that this would provide an excuse for Erdogan to formally invade Syria.
The problem was that Mohamed Morsi wasn't even Erdogan's first choice for Egypt's President. Both he and the FJP wanted the Muslim Brotherhood's Deputy Supreme Spiritual Guide Khairat el-Shater. However much like Erdogan al-Shater had been imprisoned in 2007 for attempting to wage religious war against Egypt's secular state so was banned from holding public office.
Morsi dedicated his year as Egypt's President to one task and one task alone. Smuggling advanced weapons from Egypt's neighbour Libya to the Muslim Brotherhood offshoot Hamas in Palestine's Gaza Strip. This led to two wars between Hamas and Israel in 2012 and again in 2014. Hamas lost both of these wars.
What Morsi did not do was make any attempt to address the underlying issues that prompted the January 25th 2011 (25/1/11) Revolution. He did though succeed in running up Egypt's national debt by around USD20bn. Roughly USD50m for each day that he was in office.
So in June of 2013 a petition began circulating calling for Morsi to either step down or call a fresh election to reaffirm his democratic mandate. This petition ended up being signed by roughly one third of Egypt's entire population of 80 million people. When Morsi refused to respond to the petition most of the people who'd signed it travelled to Tahrir Square in Egypt's capital Cairo. They set up a mass protest calling on Morsi to respond to the petition.
After a week of this protest Morsi had still not responded to the petition. So as with the January 25th Revolution the Egyptian military sided with the protesters and eased the dictator out of power on July 3rd 2013 (3/7/17).
Neither Erdogan nor the Muslim Brotherhood took the will of the Egyptian people in good grace. They immediately declared July 3rd Revolution to be a coup. The Muslim Brotherhood set up armed protests camps in Cairo's al-Nadha Square and Rabaa al-Adawiya Square. Effectively turning the Mosques in those squares into military barracks.
After six weeks of these camps being used to launch violent attacks against the Egyptian security services and Egyptian civilians who were kidnapped and murdered Egypt's interim government moved in to evict the Muslim Brotherhood on August 14th 2013 (14/8/13). Particularly at the Rabaa camp the Muslim Brotherhood responded by opening fire on the Egyptian security services and setting fire to the tent camp killing some 600 of their own members and 43 police officers.
You may well remember this. Seven days later on August 21st (21/8/13) Erdogan accused the Syrian government of using the Chemical Weapon Sarin in the Damascus suburb of East Ghouta.
In response to the clearance of the camps at Rabaa and Nadha Erdogan and the Muslim Brotherhood established the Rabaa campaign. Its logo is defined by black lettering against a yellow background and a four-fingered salute. This is not to mistaken with the; "Assad Chemical Genocide" campaign which is defined by black lettering against a yellow background and a four-fingered salute.
However at the March 11th 2017 (11/3/17) riot outside the Turkish Consulate in Rotterdam, the Netherlands both of those logos did seem to be interchangeable with the Turkish flag.
Erdogan and the Muslim Brotherhood claimed protest campaign has also been accompanied by an out-and-out terror campaign conducted by the Supporters of the Holy House/Ansar Bait al-Maqdis (ABM). They are based in the northern part of Egypt's Sinai Peninsula.
The security situation in the Sinai Peninsula has long been complicated by Egypt's relationship with Israel. The peace agreement that ended the 1973 Yom Kippur War between Egypt and Israel prevents Egypt from deploying troops in the Sinai without Israel's permission. As a result the area represents something of a lawless, ungoverned space.
Ansar Bait al-Maqdis are really nothing more then a small group of local tribal warlords who profit from this ungoverned space. One of their main sources of business is control of the smuggling trade with Hamas in Gaza. The Holy House in their name is a reference to the Temple Mount/Al-Asqa Mosque in Jerusalem.
However in November 2014 ABM formally affiliated themselves with ISIL renaming themselves; "Sinai Province." Since then they have largely battled the Egyptian security forces within northern Sinai whilst occasionally conducting small, isolated terror attacks such as a hand grenade attack or a shooting within Egypt's main part. Particularly around the capital Cairo and the nearby Giza Pyramids tourist attraction.
Both the Rabaa campaign and the ISIL campaign have been heavily supported by both the Turkish media and the Muslim Brotherhood media. Particularly the Al Jazeera network.
So for example it has become common to refer to the July 3rd Revolution as a "Coup" with no mention of either the petition or the mass public protests. Likewise people refer to the "Rabaa Massacre" without mentioning that the people gathered at Rabaa and Nadha spent six weeks kidnapping and murdering people who disagreed with them or that they set fire to the Rabaa camp themselves in an effort to make Martyrs of 600 of their members.
This propaganda campaign has sadly infected the way that the western media report on events in Egypt. A key figure in this contamination of reporting has been a journalist by the name of Sherine Tadros. She initially worked of Al Jazeera before being employed by Britain's Sky News in an effort to promote their newly launched Sky News Arabic service.
Sherine Tadros has not been formally blacklisted by the western media. However due to her extensive lies and support for terror groups no western news outlet is choosing to employ her. She is now currently working as Amnesty International's liaison to the United Nations (UN). Bear that in mind next time Amnesty International or the UN issue a report on either Egypt or Syria.
This Islamist propaganda campaign has actually put Egypt of the forefront of the Fake News debate that is currently going on in the west. In December 2016 Egypt was forced to pass a specific law making it illegal to publish news which is false and intended to create chaos by inciting violence against public institutions.
The prime example of why Egypt needs such a law was an ISIL attack on a checkpoint in the Sinai. Al Jazeera reported that ISIL had managed to kill hundreds of Egyptian police and soldiers. The actual number was 13. However despite being corrected by the Egyptian government and other news outlets Al Jazeera continued to report this vastly inflated and entirely false death toll as a way to celebrate ISIL's great victory against Egypt.
Although former US President Barack Obama did the Egyptian people have not been so stupid as to fall for these attempts to tear their country apart. So since 2013 neither the Rabaa campaign nor the ISIL campaign have gained traction and aren't really going anywhere. Even if they do remain a source of tension and irritation.
On March 23rd (23/3/17) ISIL did try to breath new life into their campaign by conducting a bombing in the Maadi district of Cairo. This was timed to coincide with the release from prison of Hosni Mubarak - the dictator toppled in the January 25th Revolution. The intention being to portray the Rabaa and Sinai Province campaigns as the opposition to the corrupt government that freed Mubarak in an effort to united Egyptians behind them.
Largely though ISIL have been limited to trying to purge Egypt's Coptic Christians for the Sinai. On December 16th 2016 (16/12/16) they carried out a bombing at the Botroseya Church which is next to the main Coptic Cathedral in Cairo's Abbassia district.
However unlike in Iraq or Syria rather than taking control of huge areas and then killing all the Christian Sinai Province have been limited to attacking individual Christian families in their homes - often at night. This though has created enough fear that since late February 2017 more than 250 Christian families have fled from the Sinai for other parts of Egypt forcing the government to house them rather like refugees fleeing a warzone.
On Sunday (9/4/17) Sinai Province conducted twin suicide bombings against Christian Churches.
The first struck at St George's Church in Tanta which is around 110km (65 miles) north of Cairo and around 70km (40 miles) west of Islamiya which is where the Sinai Peninsula connects with the rest of Egypt. This killed 29 people and wounded 70.
The second struck St Marks Cathedral in Alexandria some 220km (130 miles) north-west of Cairo and around 65km (40 miles) north-west of Tanta. St Marks Cathedral is the seat of the seat of Egypt's Coptic Church. 16 people were killed in this bombing and 66 were wounded.
These bombings struck at the start of the holiest week in the Christian calender - known simply as; "Holy Week." On Palm Sunday Jesus returned to Jerusalem where he was greeted by a mass of supporters fanning him with Palm leaves. Viewing this as a threat the Romans arrested Jesus on Maunday Thursday and executed him on Good Friday. On Easter Sunday Jesus rose from the dead. East Sunday comes at the end of an almost Ramadan-like month of fasting and sacrafice.
The bombings also struck three weeks before the Catholic Christian Pope is scheduled to visit Egypt. The purpose of the visit being to improve the Catholic Church's relationship both with the Coptic Christian Church and Islam. For some reason ISIL have become extremely fixated on the Catholic Pope. They seem to view him as a sort of rival Caliph.
Sunday's (9/4/17) bombings come at a time of growing confidence for ISIL, the Army of Conquest and the Rabaa campaign.
Last Tuesday (4/4/17) Erdogan once again accused the Syrian government of using the Chemical Weapon Sarin. This time against the town of Khan Sheikhoun where the Army of Conquest are mounting a failed offensive against the city of Hama. Unlike in 2013 on this occasion Erdogan's claims have prompted the US to conduct missile strikes against the Syrian government on Friday (7/4/17).
So with the perception that he is on the verge of victory in Syria Sunday's (9/4/17) bombings seem to be an attempt to reinvigorate Erdogan's campaign in Egypt.
By attacking Christians the bombings force the Egyptian government to do more to protect its Christian population. This allows Sinai Province and the Rabaa campaign to portray the government as the protector of the apostates against Islam.
At the same time today (10/4/17) Sinai Province have fired rockets into Israel. This allows them to portray themselves as the holy warriors against Islam's supposed worst enemy - the Jews.
At around 16:35 on 10/4/17 (UK date) I'll be back to cover the Egyptian government's response.
Edited at around 18:40 on 10/4/17 (UK date) to add;
In response to Sunday's (9/4/17) bombings the Egyptian government have introduced a State of Emergency under Law 162 pending Parliamentary approval. The use of Law 162 is a very sensitive issue within Egypt.
It was first used in 1967 in response to the 6 Day War with Egypt. That State of Emergency remained in place until 1980. Then 18 months later the Muslim Brotherhood assassinated Egyptian President Anwar Sadat and his successor Hosni Mubarak again invoked Law 162. That State of Emergency lasted until Mubarak was overthrown in the January 25th Revolution and his misuse of the law was a major driving factor in the revolution.
Despite the law has been abused in the past with a low-intensity war being fought in the northern Sinai, bombings in multiple cities and an influx of Internally Displaced People (IDP's) Egypt does seem to be experiencing a situation that warrants a State of Emergency.
On November 13th 2015 (13/11/15) France experienced the Paris Massacres and introduced a State of Emergency. Since then it has been renewed four times. Most recently in February 2017 after an unsuccessful stabbing attack at the Louvre museum. Egypt has gone through numerous attacks much worse then the Louvre attack without declaring a State of Emergency.
Egypt and France's State of Emergency laws are very similar. They both allow for the restriction on movements of people in certain areas and certain times including imposing curfews and banning demonstrations. The both allow for semi-private buildings such as shops or other businesses to be closed. They both allow for firearm licenses to be suspended and weapons confiscate. The both also allow for the censorship of the press and other media.
Egypt and France's laws do different in two important ways though. Egypt's State of Emergency allows for warrant-less search & seizure whereas France's requires that searches must be warranted by a administrative figure like a local Mayor rather than by a Judge.
The most important difference though is that while France's State of Emergency allows people to be detained at home - house arrest - Egypt's totally suspends Habeas Corpus. That means people can be imprisoned without trial indefinitely. With Egypt's last big State of Emergency lasting for 30 years that is a serious concern.
It must also be said that even with the best efforts and intentions of the Egyptian security forces I don't see the security situation in Egypt changing anytime. The problems are being driven by outside forces which require international support to resolve. Based certainly on the events of the events of that past week the international willingness to resolve those external problems seems to be completely missing.
With Egypt therefore facing a potentially long State of Emergency I can't help but wonder if rather than imposing it nationally it would be possible to impose it locally where the problems are at their worst. The northern Sinai and the neighbouring provinces for example. Even if the government then have to impose the State of Emergency nationally it at least shows they are only doing so as a last resort.
If there is no option then to impose a State of Emergency nationally then the security forces need to use their new powers extremely sparingly.
That means they only use them against the Rabaa campaign and ISIL. They do not use them against common criminals and other forms of political dissent.
19:25 on 10/4/17 (UK date).
At a Welfare Party rally in 1997 Erdogan recited a poem by famous Turkish poet Ziya Goklap. However Erdogan changed the words to instruct his Islamist followers that; "The mosques are our barracks, the domes our helmets, the minarets our bayonets and the faithful our soldiers" in a call for his holy Muslim army to overthrow the secular Turkish state.
Obviously this call for armed insurrection and religious warfare did not go down well with the secular Turkish state. So Erdogan was sent to prison for 10 months and the Welfare Party was disbanded.
Upon release from prison Erdogan formed the Islamist Justice & Development Party (AKP) who are sometimes known simply as; "The AK." In the 2002 the AKP won a large Parliamentary majority. However due to his conviction for inciting violence and racial hatred Erdogan was unable to take up the post of Prime Minister.
So the AKP simply made Abdullah Gul Prime Minister. Gul's one task as Prime Minister was to quash Erdogan's conviction allowing him to take over as Prime Minister in early 2003. Erdogan then set about pursuing a Neo-Ottoman strategy. In short he wants to re-establish the Ottoman Empire - the last Islamist Caliphate.
In 2011 the people of Tunisia overthrow their dictator Ben Ali and shortly afterwards the people of Egypt overthrew their dictator. Amid all this upheaval Erdogan saw an opportunity to make his dream of a new Ottoman Empire a reality.
Two nations that are key to the original Ottoman Empire are Syria and Egypt. On 24th of August 1516 the Ottoman Empire faced the Mamluk Empire in the Battle of Dabiq Meadow which is around 50km (30 miles) north-east of the modern Syrian city of Aleppo.
Victory at the Battle of Dabiq Meadow gave the Ottoman Empire total victory over the Mamluk Empire. With the Mamluk Empire being based in Egypt this extended the Ottoman Empire all the way across the Middle-East, North-Africa (MENA) region.
So in early spring of 2011 Syria Erdogan set about backing the Islamist terror groups that became the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) and the Army of Conquest/Jaish al-Fatah (JAF) to overthrow the Syrian government. As a sign of their dedication to the dream of a new Ottoman Empire ISIL publish an online propaganda magazine called; "Dabiq."
In Egypt Erdogan thought his task would be easier. The Egyptian people that already overthrown the government of Hosni Mubarak. Therefore all Erdogan needed to do was make sure the Sunni-Islamist Muslim Brotherhood's candidate Mohamed Morsi representing the Freedom & Justice Party (FJP) won the upcoming Presidential election.
Initially Erdogan achieved this aim. When Morsi was elected on June 22nd 2012 (22/6/12) Erdogan celebrated by flying a Turkish F4 Phantom into Syrian airspace in order to have it shot-down. The hope being that this would provide an excuse for Erdogan to formally invade Syria.
The problem was that Mohamed Morsi wasn't even Erdogan's first choice for Egypt's President. Both he and the FJP wanted the Muslim Brotherhood's Deputy Supreme Spiritual Guide Khairat el-Shater. However much like Erdogan al-Shater had been imprisoned in 2007 for attempting to wage religious war against Egypt's secular state so was banned from holding public office.
Morsi dedicated his year as Egypt's President to one task and one task alone. Smuggling advanced weapons from Egypt's neighbour Libya to the Muslim Brotherhood offshoot Hamas in Palestine's Gaza Strip. This led to two wars between Hamas and Israel in 2012 and again in 2014. Hamas lost both of these wars.
What Morsi did not do was make any attempt to address the underlying issues that prompted the January 25th 2011 (25/1/11) Revolution. He did though succeed in running up Egypt's national debt by around USD20bn. Roughly USD50m for each day that he was in office.
So in June of 2013 a petition began circulating calling for Morsi to either step down or call a fresh election to reaffirm his democratic mandate. This petition ended up being signed by roughly one third of Egypt's entire population of 80 million people. When Morsi refused to respond to the petition most of the people who'd signed it travelled to Tahrir Square in Egypt's capital Cairo. They set up a mass protest calling on Morsi to respond to the petition.
After a week of this protest Morsi had still not responded to the petition. So as with the January 25th Revolution the Egyptian military sided with the protesters and eased the dictator out of power on July 3rd 2013 (3/7/17).
Neither Erdogan nor the Muslim Brotherhood took the will of the Egyptian people in good grace. They immediately declared July 3rd Revolution to be a coup. The Muslim Brotherhood set up armed protests camps in Cairo's al-Nadha Square and Rabaa al-Adawiya Square. Effectively turning the Mosques in those squares into military barracks.
After six weeks of these camps being used to launch violent attacks against the Egyptian security services and Egyptian civilians who were kidnapped and murdered Egypt's interim government moved in to evict the Muslim Brotherhood on August 14th 2013 (14/8/13). Particularly at the Rabaa camp the Muslim Brotherhood responded by opening fire on the Egyptian security services and setting fire to the tent camp killing some 600 of their own members and 43 police officers.
You may well remember this. Seven days later on August 21st (21/8/13) Erdogan accused the Syrian government of using the Chemical Weapon Sarin in the Damascus suburb of East Ghouta.
In response to the clearance of the camps at Rabaa and Nadha Erdogan and the Muslim Brotherhood established the Rabaa campaign. Its logo is defined by black lettering against a yellow background and a four-fingered salute. This is not to mistaken with the; "Assad Chemical Genocide" campaign which is defined by black lettering against a yellow background and a four-fingered salute.
However at the March 11th 2017 (11/3/17) riot outside the Turkish Consulate in Rotterdam, the Netherlands both of those logos did seem to be interchangeable with the Turkish flag.
Erdogan and the Muslim Brotherhood claimed protest campaign has also been accompanied by an out-and-out terror campaign conducted by the Supporters of the Holy House/Ansar Bait al-Maqdis (ABM). They are based in the northern part of Egypt's Sinai Peninsula.
The security situation in the Sinai Peninsula has long been complicated by Egypt's relationship with Israel. The peace agreement that ended the 1973 Yom Kippur War between Egypt and Israel prevents Egypt from deploying troops in the Sinai without Israel's permission. As a result the area represents something of a lawless, ungoverned space.
Ansar Bait al-Maqdis are really nothing more then a small group of local tribal warlords who profit from this ungoverned space. One of their main sources of business is control of the smuggling trade with Hamas in Gaza. The Holy House in their name is a reference to the Temple Mount/Al-Asqa Mosque in Jerusalem.
However in November 2014 ABM formally affiliated themselves with ISIL renaming themselves; "Sinai Province." Since then they have largely battled the Egyptian security forces within northern Sinai whilst occasionally conducting small, isolated terror attacks such as a hand grenade attack or a shooting within Egypt's main part. Particularly around the capital Cairo and the nearby Giza Pyramids tourist attraction.
Both the Rabaa campaign and the ISIL campaign have been heavily supported by both the Turkish media and the Muslim Brotherhood media. Particularly the Al Jazeera network.
So for example it has become common to refer to the July 3rd Revolution as a "Coup" with no mention of either the petition or the mass public protests. Likewise people refer to the "Rabaa Massacre" without mentioning that the people gathered at Rabaa and Nadha spent six weeks kidnapping and murdering people who disagreed with them or that they set fire to the Rabaa camp themselves in an effort to make Martyrs of 600 of their members.
This propaganda campaign has sadly infected the way that the western media report on events in Egypt. A key figure in this contamination of reporting has been a journalist by the name of Sherine Tadros. She initially worked of Al Jazeera before being employed by Britain's Sky News in an effort to promote their newly launched Sky News Arabic service.
Sherine Tadros has not been formally blacklisted by the western media. However due to her extensive lies and support for terror groups no western news outlet is choosing to employ her. She is now currently working as Amnesty International's liaison to the United Nations (UN). Bear that in mind next time Amnesty International or the UN issue a report on either Egypt or Syria.
This Islamist propaganda campaign has actually put Egypt of the forefront of the Fake News debate that is currently going on in the west. In December 2016 Egypt was forced to pass a specific law making it illegal to publish news which is false and intended to create chaos by inciting violence against public institutions.
The prime example of why Egypt needs such a law was an ISIL attack on a checkpoint in the Sinai. Al Jazeera reported that ISIL had managed to kill hundreds of Egyptian police and soldiers. The actual number was 13. However despite being corrected by the Egyptian government and other news outlets Al Jazeera continued to report this vastly inflated and entirely false death toll as a way to celebrate ISIL's great victory against Egypt.
Although former US President Barack Obama did the Egyptian people have not been so stupid as to fall for these attempts to tear their country apart. So since 2013 neither the Rabaa campaign nor the ISIL campaign have gained traction and aren't really going anywhere. Even if they do remain a source of tension and irritation.
On March 23rd (23/3/17) ISIL did try to breath new life into their campaign by conducting a bombing in the Maadi district of Cairo. This was timed to coincide with the release from prison of Hosni Mubarak - the dictator toppled in the January 25th Revolution. The intention being to portray the Rabaa and Sinai Province campaigns as the opposition to the corrupt government that freed Mubarak in an effort to united Egyptians behind them.
Largely though ISIL have been limited to trying to purge Egypt's Coptic Christians for the Sinai. On December 16th 2016 (16/12/16) they carried out a bombing at the Botroseya Church which is next to the main Coptic Cathedral in Cairo's Abbassia district.
However unlike in Iraq or Syria rather than taking control of huge areas and then killing all the Christian Sinai Province have been limited to attacking individual Christian families in their homes - often at night. This though has created enough fear that since late February 2017 more than 250 Christian families have fled from the Sinai for other parts of Egypt forcing the government to house them rather like refugees fleeing a warzone.
On Sunday (9/4/17) Sinai Province conducted twin suicide bombings against Christian Churches.
The first struck at St George's Church in Tanta which is around 110km (65 miles) north of Cairo and around 70km (40 miles) west of Islamiya which is where the Sinai Peninsula connects with the rest of Egypt. This killed 29 people and wounded 70.
The second struck St Marks Cathedral in Alexandria some 220km (130 miles) north-west of Cairo and around 65km (40 miles) north-west of Tanta. St Marks Cathedral is the seat of the seat of Egypt's Coptic Church. 16 people were killed in this bombing and 66 were wounded.
These bombings struck at the start of the holiest week in the Christian calender - known simply as; "Holy Week." On Palm Sunday Jesus returned to Jerusalem where he was greeted by a mass of supporters fanning him with Palm leaves. Viewing this as a threat the Romans arrested Jesus on Maunday Thursday and executed him on Good Friday. On Easter Sunday Jesus rose from the dead. East Sunday comes at the end of an almost Ramadan-like month of fasting and sacrafice.
The bombings also struck three weeks before the Catholic Christian Pope is scheduled to visit Egypt. The purpose of the visit being to improve the Catholic Church's relationship both with the Coptic Christian Church and Islam. For some reason ISIL have become extremely fixated on the Catholic Pope. They seem to view him as a sort of rival Caliph.
Sunday's (9/4/17) bombings come at a time of growing confidence for ISIL, the Army of Conquest and the Rabaa campaign.
Last Tuesday (4/4/17) Erdogan once again accused the Syrian government of using the Chemical Weapon Sarin. This time against the town of Khan Sheikhoun where the Army of Conquest are mounting a failed offensive against the city of Hama. Unlike in 2013 on this occasion Erdogan's claims have prompted the US to conduct missile strikes against the Syrian government on Friday (7/4/17).
So with the perception that he is on the verge of victory in Syria Sunday's (9/4/17) bombings seem to be an attempt to reinvigorate Erdogan's campaign in Egypt.
By attacking Christians the bombings force the Egyptian government to do more to protect its Christian population. This allows Sinai Province and the Rabaa campaign to portray the government as the protector of the apostates against Islam.
At the same time today (10/4/17) Sinai Province have fired rockets into Israel. This allows them to portray themselves as the holy warriors against Islam's supposed worst enemy - the Jews.
At around 16:35 on 10/4/17 (UK date) I'll be back to cover the Egyptian government's response.
Edited at around 18:40 on 10/4/17 (UK date) to add;
In response to Sunday's (9/4/17) bombings the Egyptian government have introduced a State of Emergency under Law 162 pending Parliamentary approval. The use of Law 162 is a very sensitive issue within Egypt.
It was first used in 1967 in response to the 6 Day War with Egypt. That State of Emergency remained in place until 1980. Then 18 months later the Muslim Brotherhood assassinated Egyptian President Anwar Sadat and his successor Hosni Mubarak again invoked Law 162. That State of Emergency lasted until Mubarak was overthrown in the January 25th Revolution and his misuse of the law was a major driving factor in the revolution.
Despite the law has been abused in the past with a low-intensity war being fought in the northern Sinai, bombings in multiple cities and an influx of Internally Displaced People (IDP's) Egypt does seem to be experiencing a situation that warrants a State of Emergency.
On November 13th 2015 (13/11/15) France experienced the Paris Massacres and introduced a State of Emergency. Since then it has been renewed four times. Most recently in February 2017 after an unsuccessful stabbing attack at the Louvre museum. Egypt has gone through numerous attacks much worse then the Louvre attack without declaring a State of Emergency.
Egypt and France's State of Emergency laws are very similar. They both allow for the restriction on movements of people in certain areas and certain times including imposing curfews and banning demonstrations. The both allow for semi-private buildings such as shops or other businesses to be closed. They both allow for firearm licenses to be suspended and weapons confiscate. The both also allow for the censorship of the press and other media.
Egypt and France's laws do different in two important ways though. Egypt's State of Emergency allows for warrant-less search & seizure whereas France's requires that searches must be warranted by a administrative figure like a local Mayor rather than by a Judge.
The most important difference though is that while France's State of Emergency allows people to be detained at home - house arrest - Egypt's totally suspends Habeas Corpus. That means people can be imprisoned without trial indefinitely. With Egypt's last big State of Emergency lasting for 30 years that is a serious concern.
It must also be said that even with the best efforts and intentions of the Egyptian security forces I don't see the security situation in Egypt changing anytime. The problems are being driven by outside forces which require international support to resolve. Based certainly on the events of the events of that past week the international willingness to resolve those external problems seems to be completely missing.
With Egypt therefore facing a potentially long State of Emergency I can't help but wonder if rather than imposing it nationally it would be possible to impose it locally where the problems are at their worst. The northern Sinai and the neighbouring provinces for example. Even if the government then have to impose the State of Emergency nationally it at least shows they are only doing so as a last resort.
If there is no option then to impose a State of Emergency nationally then the security forces need to use their new powers extremely sparingly.
That means they only use them against the Rabaa campaign and ISIL. They do not use them against common criminals and other forms of political dissent.
19:25 on 10/4/17 (UK date).
Sunday, 9 April 2017
Operation Featherweight: Month 33, Week 3, Day 5.
The Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) are currently in very bad shape.
In fact I really need to do an update detailing just how badly they're doing. Both in the Iraqi city of Mosul and at the Syrian town of Tabqa.
ISIL's main ally within Syria is the Army of Conquest/Jaish al-Fatah (JAF) coalition. They are in equally bad shape.
The only thing that will save the Army of Conquest now is inclusion in the Astana Ceasefire. That requires Russian consent.
So on Monday (3/4/17) twin bomb attacks struck the underground rail (Metro) system in the Russian city of Saint Petersburg. As with the December 29th 2013 (29/12/13) and December 30th (30/12/13) bombings in Volgograd these were the work of Saudi Arabia.
They are the follow on from an ultimatum then head of Saudi intelligence Prince Bandar issued to Russian President Vladimir Putin in the summer of 2013. Either Russia ends its opposition to ISIL and the Army of Conquest or Saudi Arabia will conduct Islamist terror attacks against the 2014 Winter Olympics being held in the Russian city of Sochi.
Monday's (3/4/17) bombings targeted the city of St Petersburg in reflection of the role it played during Russia's 1917 Communist Revolution. The centenary of which is currently taking place.
The intention was to add to the threat of more Islamist terror attacks against Russia the threat of Arab Spring style public protests triggering a sort of 2017 Russian Revolution. Unless Russia included the Army of Conquest in the Astana Ceasefire saving the group from defeat.
It almost goes without saying that Russia did not cower in fear. By Tuesday (4/4/17) morning - less then 12 hours after the attacks - they'd completely eliminated the Islamist terror cell responsible. Russia then proceeded to start mocking Saudi Arabia.
Later on Tuesday (4/4/17) a homeless man was injured by a small Improvised Explosive Device (IED) disguised as a torch in the Russian city of Rostov-on-Don. Rostov sits right on Russia's border of what used to be the nation state of Ukraine.
In 2014 Saudi Arabia was unable to follow through on its threats to attack the Sochi Olympics. So by way of compensation then US President Barack Obama set about creating ISIL's Shamali (northern) Province within the geographic area where Ukraine used to exist. This has caused no end of problems for Russia.*
Even later on Tuesday (4/4/17) there was another explosion in St Petersburg. This explosion was caused by a construction accident which caused the wall of a apartment building to collapse. It teased those thinking that Saudi Arabia's threats would cause Russia's wall of opposition to ISIL and the Army of Conquest to collapse.
Amid these howls of Russian laughter a sudden reality dawned on the Saudis. Although they may like to threaten a 2017 Russian revolution they lack the capability to actually follow through on that threat.
I mean could you imagine sending someone as viciously homophobic as a Saudi intelligence officer to try an infiltrate a Russian gay club? His head would explode.
Sweden however has the capacity to, maybe not cause a full revolution, but certainly mount widespread anti-government protests in Russia.
Through their Human Rights House network Sweden has been building that capacity ever since the Cold War. Pretty much every time you hear about a gay-rights/human-rights/anti-corruption/soldiers mother's activist in Russia you're really hearing from Swedish intelligence.
So on Friday (7/4/17) Sweden suffered an Islamist terror attack. A sole attacker hijacked a truck and drove it through the main pedestrian shopping district of Stockholm.
The message quite simply being; Swedish intelligence will use its networks to follow through on the Saudis threats to Russia or it will suffer more Islamist terror attacks.
The type of truck used was a beer delivery truck. This initially caught my eye.
The amount of Sarin-like nerve agent that Turkish President/Prime Minister/Emperor Recep Tayyip Erdogan used in the town of Khan Sheikhoun, Syria on Tuesday (4/4/17) is only about 500ml (1pt). This is the unit of measurement in which beer is usually sold. I suppose though at a stretch it could even be as small as a 330ml (11 floz) cola can.
This is common knowledge amongst the intelligence community. So while nations may accuse the Syrians of carrying out the attack when the people who are attacking the Syrians also attack them they don't hesitate to break out the gas masks.
The attack also occurred on Queen Street. A Saudi King conducting an attack on Queen Street in a European Monarchy has the potential to go a bit "Game of Thrones."
However the attack who was captured alive has been identified as someone who had previously being under surveillance for links to Islamist terror. Therefore it is unlikely he would have been prepared to put much planning into his attack in case the surveillance teams noticed and stopped him. Plus four days isn't really a lot of time to plan a terror attack.
So I think it's most likely that he simply hung around the main pedestrian shopping district - a "target rich environment" for terrorists - and then stole the first truck he could lay his hands on. Beer delivery trucks tend to stop frequently with the driver leaving the engine running.
The attack has also been identified as a citizen of Uzbekistan. Along with nations like Tajikistan and Turkmenistan this is one of the group of nations known as; "The Stans." They are all overwhelmingly Muslim. Uzbekistan is 96% Muslim.
During the Cold War all to the Stans were part of the Union of Soviet Socialist Republic (USSR). In 1979 the Soviets tried expanding the USSR south into Afghanistan. Apart from being geographically close Afghanistan is also culturally very close to the other Stans. Many Afghans will identify as Uzbek, Tajik or Turkic rather than Afghani.
Looking for revenge over its defeat in Vietnam four years earlier the US set about uniting all of Afghanistan's ethnic groups behind Islam to get them to fight the Soviets. In 2001 the US invaded Afghanistan so groups like Al Qaeda started uniting Afghanistan's different ethnic groups behind Islam to fight the Americans.
This near 40 years history of Islamist violence in the Stans is very much continuing. Al Qaeda are now not only fighting the US in Afghanistan they are also shipping large numbers of Muslims from the Stans to Syria to fight as part of the Army of Conquest and ISIL.
So the use of an Uzbek could be intended as a further threat to Russia while at the same time serving as a threat to the US. Just yesterday (8/4/17) a US Special Forces Operator (SOF) was killed fighting ISIL's branch in Afghanistan. Within Afghanistan ISIL have been particularly effective in recruiting Uzbeks.
By the same token though when you talk about a; "Syrian Rebel" statistically you're most likely talking about a Muslim from the Stans with Uzbekistan seeming to lead the way.
*In between watching people blow each other up I'm currently catching up on the third season of the US TV Show; "House of Cards."
This season dates back to the Sochi Olympics and the creation of Shamali Province. It even features the actual members of; "Pussy Riot" who have become sort of heroes for US-based ISIL supporters. However as the season progresses the US gay rights for gays activist who appears alongside Pussy Riot goes on to admit that his life is a lie and then kills himself.
The tension Pussy Riot causes between the US and Russia scuppers the fictional US President Frank Underwood's big legacy plan. He wants to deploy US troops to establish safe-zones within the Jordan Valley between Israel and Palestine. However the Russians veto the plan at the United Nations Security Council (UNSC).
So President Underwood appoints his wife as US Ambassador to the UN. She then moves to introduce a resolution to the UN General Assembly (UNGA) to overturn Russia's UNSC's veto.
US based ISIL supporters in particular have long pushed for the introduction of a UNGA resolution to overturn Russia's UNSC veto to allow for military action against Syria.
So not only are they basing their plan on a work of fiction.
They're basing it on one in which the main character is an amoral sociopath.
11:40 on 9/4/17 (UK date).
In fact I really need to do an update detailing just how badly they're doing. Both in the Iraqi city of Mosul and at the Syrian town of Tabqa.
ISIL's main ally within Syria is the Army of Conquest/Jaish al-Fatah (JAF) coalition. They are in equally bad shape.
The only thing that will save the Army of Conquest now is inclusion in the Astana Ceasefire. That requires Russian consent.
So on Monday (3/4/17) twin bomb attacks struck the underground rail (Metro) system in the Russian city of Saint Petersburg. As with the December 29th 2013 (29/12/13) and December 30th (30/12/13) bombings in Volgograd these were the work of Saudi Arabia.
They are the follow on from an ultimatum then head of Saudi intelligence Prince Bandar issued to Russian President Vladimir Putin in the summer of 2013. Either Russia ends its opposition to ISIL and the Army of Conquest or Saudi Arabia will conduct Islamist terror attacks against the 2014 Winter Olympics being held in the Russian city of Sochi.
Monday's (3/4/17) bombings targeted the city of St Petersburg in reflection of the role it played during Russia's 1917 Communist Revolution. The centenary of which is currently taking place.
The intention was to add to the threat of more Islamist terror attacks against Russia the threat of Arab Spring style public protests triggering a sort of 2017 Russian Revolution. Unless Russia included the Army of Conquest in the Astana Ceasefire saving the group from defeat.
It almost goes without saying that Russia did not cower in fear. By Tuesday (4/4/17) morning - less then 12 hours after the attacks - they'd completely eliminated the Islamist terror cell responsible. Russia then proceeded to start mocking Saudi Arabia.
Later on Tuesday (4/4/17) a homeless man was injured by a small Improvised Explosive Device (IED) disguised as a torch in the Russian city of Rostov-on-Don. Rostov sits right on Russia's border of what used to be the nation state of Ukraine.
In 2014 Saudi Arabia was unable to follow through on its threats to attack the Sochi Olympics. So by way of compensation then US President Barack Obama set about creating ISIL's Shamali (northern) Province within the geographic area where Ukraine used to exist. This has caused no end of problems for Russia.*
Even later on Tuesday (4/4/17) there was another explosion in St Petersburg. This explosion was caused by a construction accident which caused the wall of a apartment building to collapse. It teased those thinking that Saudi Arabia's threats would cause Russia's wall of opposition to ISIL and the Army of Conquest to collapse.
Amid these howls of Russian laughter a sudden reality dawned on the Saudis. Although they may like to threaten a 2017 Russian revolution they lack the capability to actually follow through on that threat.
I mean could you imagine sending someone as viciously homophobic as a Saudi intelligence officer to try an infiltrate a Russian gay club? His head would explode.
Sweden however has the capacity to, maybe not cause a full revolution, but certainly mount widespread anti-government protests in Russia.
Through their Human Rights House network Sweden has been building that capacity ever since the Cold War. Pretty much every time you hear about a gay-rights/human-rights/anti-corruption/soldiers mother's activist in Russia you're really hearing from Swedish intelligence.
So on Friday (7/4/17) Sweden suffered an Islamist terror attack. A sole attacker hijacked a truck and drove it through the main pedestrian shopping district of Stockholm.
The message quite simply being; Swedish intelligence will use its networks to follow through on the Saudis threats to Russia or it will suffer more Islamist terror attacks.
The type of truck used was a beer delivery truck. This initially caught my eye.
The amount of Sarin-like nerve agent that Turkish President/Prime Minister/Emperor Recep Tayyip Erdogan used in the town of Khan Sheikhoun, Syria on Tuesday (4/4/17) is only about 500ml (1pt). This is the unit of measurement in which beer is usually sold. I suppose though at a stretch it could even be as small as a 330ml (11 floz) cola can.
This is common knowledge amongst the intelligence community. So while nations may accuse the Syrians of carrying out the attack when the people who are attacking the Syrians also attack them they don't hesitate to break out the gas masks.
The attack also occurred on Queen Street. A Saudi King conducting an attack on Queen Street in a European Monarchy has the potential to go a bit "Game of Thrones."
However the attack who was captured alive has been identified as someone who had previously being under surveillance for links to Islamist terror. Therefore it is unlikely he would have been prepared to put much planning into his attack in case the surveillance teams noticed and stopped him. Plus four days isn't really a lot of time to plan a terror attack.
So I think it's most likely that he simply hung around the main pedestrian shopping district - a "target rich environment" for terrorists - and then stole the first truck he could lay his hands on. Beer delivery trucks tend to stop frequently with the driver leaving the engine running.
The attack has also been identified as a citizen of Uzbekistan. Along with nations like Tajikistan and Turkmenistan this is one of the group of nations known as; "The Stans." They are all overwhelmingly Muslim. Uzbekistan is 96% Muslim.
During the Cold War all to the Stans were part of the Union of Soviet Socialist Republic (USSR). In 1979 the Soviets tried expanding the USSR south into Afghanistan. Apart from being geographically close Afghanistan is also culturally very close to the other Stans. Many Afghans will identify as Uzbek, Tajik or Turkic rather than Afghani.
Looking for revenge over its defeat in Vietnam four years earlier the US set about uniting all of Afghanistan's ethnic groups behind Islam to get them to fight the Soviets. In 2001 the US invaded Afghanistan so groups like Al Qaeda started uniting Afghanistan's different ethnic groups behind Islam to fight the Americans.
This near 40 years history of Islamist violence in the Stans is very much continuing. Al Qaeda are now not only fighting the US in Afghanistan they are also shipping large numbers of Muslims from the Stans to Syria to fight as part of the Army of Conquest and ISIL.
So the use of an Uzbek could be intended as a further threat to Russia while at the same time serving as a threat to the US. Just yesterday (8/4/17) a US Special Forces Operator (SOF) was killed fighting ISIL's branch in Afghanistan. Within Afghanistan ISIL have been particularly effective in recruiting Uzbeks.
By the same token though when you talk about a; "Syrian Rebel" statistically you're most likely talking about a Muslim from the Stans with Uzbekistan seeming to lead the way.
*In between watching people blow each other up I'm currently catching up on the third season of the US TV Show; "House of Cards."
This season dates back to the Sochi Olympics and the creation of Shamali Province. It even features the actual members of; "Pussy Riot" who have become sort of heroes for US-based ISIL supporters. However as the season progresses the US gay rights for gays activist who appears alongside Pussy Riot goes on to admit that his life is a lie and then kills himself.
The tension Pussy Riot causes between the US and Russia scuppers the fictional US President Frank Underwood's big legacy plan. He wants to deploy US troops to establish safe-zones within the Jordan Valley between Israel and Palestine. However the Russians veto the plan at the United Nations Security Council (UNSC).
So President Underwood appoints his wife as US Ambassador to the UN. She then moves to introduce a resolution to the UN General Assembly (UNGA) to overturn Russia's UNSC's veto.
US based ISIL supporters in particular have long pushed for the introduction of a UNGA resolution to overturn Russia's UNSC veto to allow for military action against Syria.
So not only are they basing their plan on a work of fiction.
They're basing it on one in which the main character is an amoral sociopath.
11:40 on 9/4/17 (UK date).
Friday, 7 April 2017
Operation Featherweight: Month 33, Week 3, Day 3.
At last count there were in excess of 7,000 armed groups operating within Syria. We are very nearly at the point where we talk about specific, named individuals rather than the group they claim to represent.
However for simplicity's sake and to avoid treading on the toes of intelligence agencies it is better to talk in terms of the four main blocs these individuals and groups operate in;
The Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF/QSD): Formed by the Kurdish People's Protection Units (YPG) this is a ethnically diverse coalition of Kurds, Arabs, Assyrians and Turkmen. It is also religiously diverse with its membership including Sunni-Muslims, Shia-Muslims, Christians and Yezidis. It almost goes without saying that it is a moderate, secular and democratic group.
The Southern Front: This exclusively Sunni-Arab group is something of a wildcard. It was initially established with the objective of wiping out Syria's Shia-Muslim, Christian, Yezidi and Druze populations. However under the close supervision of Britain and Jordan it has begun to moderate its behaviour and leave behind its worst genocidal excesses.
The Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL): Probably the most famous of all the armed groups ISIL is made up almost exclusively of people who are not native to either Syria nor Iraq. They claim to be Sunni-Muslim in ideology. However their version of Sunni-Islam requires them to cleanse the Levant region of all those who do not share their ideology. This needs to be done in order to bring about the end of the World. As such ISIL's true ideology is one of Nihilism.
ISIL are closely allied with;
The Army of Conquest/Jaish al-Fatah (JAF): This exclusively Sunni-Arab coalition is headed by The Base/Al Qaeda's affiliate within Syria The Support Front/Jabhat al-Nusra (ANF). As with ISIL their objective is to force all those living within the Levant region to adhere to a strict - and some would say perverse - form of Salafi Islam. However unlike ISIL they do not believe that this must be done in order to end the World.
Alongside Al Qaeda the main groups within the Army of Conquest are;
The Islamic Movement of Freemen of the Levant/Harakat Ahrar ash-Sham al-Islamiyya (Ahrar al-Sham). It almost goes without saying that that Islamic Movement of the Levant (Ahrar al-Sham) is almost identical in ideology to the Islamic State of the Levant (ISL).
The Army of Islam/Jaish al-Islam (JAI): This thankfully small group represents the main point of friction between ISIL and the Army of Conquest. The Army of Islam share ISIL's ideology but consider ISIL to be too moderate. They have on several occasions brutally murdered members of ISIL for not being extreme enough in their pursuit of genocide.
The United Turkmen Army (UTA): This is an irregular branch of the Turkish military. Specifically it is part of the Grey Wolves who are the paramilitary wing of Turkey's fascist Nationalist Movement Party (MHP). Due to internal Turkish political matters the MHP have been all but absorbed by the Islamist Justice & Development Party (AKP) of Turkey's President/Prime Minister/Emperor Recep Tayyip Erdogan.
Not only is Turkey an active member of the Army of Conquest it is also one of the main backers of ISIL. Erdogan's objective in doing this is simple. He wishes to use the Army of Conquest and ISIL to overthrow first the Syrian and then the Egyptian governments in order to establish a new Ottoman Empire with himself as Emperor.
The good news is that both ISIL and the Army of Conquest are in extremely bad shape both in Iraq and Syria. We are not yet talking about them being on the brink of total defeat but we are certainly starting to think in those terms.
In August 2016 Erdogan sent regular Turkish military forces to illegally invade and occupy a roughly 100km (60 miles) stretch of Turkey's border with Syria. With the towns of Azaz/Kilis in the west and the Euphrates River in the east this area has been designated; "Garvaghy Road."
Erdogan's objective in this invasion was to preserve supply lines from Turkey to Army of Conquest positions in east Aleppo City and to ISIL positions in Raqqa. At the time those supply lines were coming under intense pressure from the SDF.
In December 2016 east Aleppo City was liberated from the Army of Conquest. Since then the Army of Conquest have been forced to surrender areas around the Syrian capital Damascus and the cities of Homs and Hama.
In practical terms this now limits the Army of Conquest to a small area along Syria's border with Turkey centred around the city of Idlib. This area has been designated; "The Sudetenland" in reference to the similarity between Erdogan's attempts to annex and conquer Syria and Nazi Germany's attempts to annex and conquer Czechoslovakia in 1938.
Amid this steady stream of defeat after defeat there has though been a beacon of hope shining out for both the Army of Conquest and ISIL. This is the United Nations sponsored Geneva Process on Syria.
The objective of the Geneva Process has never been to bring peace to Syria not to defeat groups like ISIL and the Army of Conquest. Instead it is designed to empower those groups to overthrow the Syrian government presumably in order to establish the new Ottoman Empire or to bring about the end of the World.
The latest round of meetings in the Geneva Process began on March 23rd (23/3/17). The Army of Conquests prime objective from this round was to get itself included in what is known as; "The Astana Ceasefire." Without inclusion within this ceasefire the Army of Conquest are almost assured of defeat.
Battling for their very survival the Army of Conquest set about this objective by unleashing the most intense campaign of violence they could muster. The thinking being this would intimidate the Syrians into including them in the Astana Ceasefire alongside groups such as the Southern Front who are not allied with either Al Qaeda or ISIL.
The main part of the Army of Conquest's campaign was a conventional military offensive against Hama City. Launched from the Hama countryside around the towns of Kernaz and Khan Sheikhoun the objective was to advance along around 45km (30 miles) to reach Hama City re-capturing the territory the Army of Conquest had recently lost.
Just prior to the start of the latest round of meetings in the Geneva Process - I think March 21st (21/3/17) or March 23rd (23/3/17) - the Syrians wrote the Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW). Since 2013 the OPCW have been conducting a UN mandated chemical weapons monitoring mission within Syria.
The contents of the Syrians letter to the OPCW has not been made public. However it is widely believed to have been a warning to the OPCW that the Army of Conquest were in the process of obtaining chemical weapons from Turkey and planned to use them as part of their Hama offensive.
It has become a matter of routine for both the Army of Conquest and ISIL to use the irritant Chlorine and the blister agent Sulphur Mustard as chemical weapons within the conflict in Syria and Iraq. Just off the top of my head I can think of around a dozen occasions in which the Army of Conquest - specifically the Army of Islam - have used Sulphur Mustard gas against the SDF in the Sheikh Maqsood neighbourhood of Aleppo City.
Unfortunately the objective of the OPCW's mission to Syria is not to investigate the use of chemical weapons with a view to punishing those responsible. Instead as with the Geneva Process the OPCW's mission is designed to empower groups such as ISIL and the Army of Conquest to overthrow the Syrian government.
As a result the OPCW routinely ignores the use of chemical weapons by both ISIL and the Army of Conquest. For the last month or so the UK has actually been working at the UN Security Council to force the OPCW to investigate a possible use of Chlorine by ISIL during the current battle to liberate the Iraqi city of Mosul.
So for the Syrians to instigate the sharing of battlefield intelligence with the OPCW they would have to be concerned about something much more serious then the day-to-day use of Chlorine or Sulphur Mustard. This would suggest a nerve agent such as Sarin or VX. However these are both Organophosphate compounds so you could be talking about something such as an industrial pesticide. VX was actually invented in India as an industrial pesticide.
There are no reports of the OPCW responding to the Syrians letter let alone of them acting on the information.
The latest round of meetings in the Geneva Process ended last Friday (31/3/17). They ended without the Army of Conquest being included in the Astana Ceasefire and amid legitimate questions over whether the UN would renew the mandate for the Geneva Process.
The week of this latest round of the Geneva Process also saw the Army of Conquest's Hama offensive collapse into defeat. By March 31st (31/3/17) they had lost over 70% of the territory they'd gained placing the Syrians within around 5km (3 miles) of Kernaz and 10km (6 miles) Khan Sheikhoun.
With the Army of Conquest very much being the wounded animal everyone's number one priority then became stopping them obtaining nerve agents from Turkey and failing that preventing them from using those nerve agents.
On Sunday (2/4/16) Russia conducted intense airstrikes against the villages of al-Kafeer and Babsqa. These sit directly across the border from the Turkish town of Reyhanli. This is a well known weapons smuggling route from Turkey into the Sudetenland.
In order to carry out these strikes Russian aircraft had to cross into Turkish airspace without permission. Given the November 24th 2015 (24/11/15) shooting down by Turkey of a Russian jet in the same area this was certainly a dramatic move.
On Monday (3/4/17) Russian continued intense airstrikes against known Army of Conquest weapons stores in and around Idlib City. These were obviously reported in the Turkish press as Syrian strikes against hospitals. On Tuesday (4/4/17) Russia expanded its targeting of known Army of Conquest weapons stores to the area close to where the Hama offensive is taking place.
While Russia was taking material action to destroy the nerve agent shipment the issue prompted a lot of coded discussion amongst other nations with a stake in the Syria conflict.
For example on March 30th (30/3/17) the US Navy discovered a problem with its fleet of T-45 Goshawk training aircraft. Apparently the oxygen supply system on the aircraft keeps getting contaminated with an organophosphate compound causing the pilots to suffer from hypoxia and neurological impairment. A very mild form of the effect that Sarin or VX has on the human body.
Following Russia's Reyhanli strikes this problem suddenly jumped to the US Navy's fleet of F-18 combat aircraft. Operated by many NATO nations the F-18 aircraft plays a key role in the Combined Joint Task Force: Operation Inherent Resolve (CJTFOIR) anti-ISIL coalition.
There are numerous other examples of this type of coded conversation. However I won't embarrass those who participated by listing them all here.
However British readers will have noticed that the UK chose Tuesday (4/4/17) to launch its clean air plan for its capital London. The main driving concern behind this policy is to protect schoolchildren from being exposed to toxic organic compounds in the air while they are being trained and equipped for their future role in life.
On the morning of April 4th (4/4/17) Turkish President/Prime Minister/Emperor Erdogan addressed a campaign rally for Turkey's upcoming constitutional referendum. In it he declared that Turkey would be undertaking more military action against Syria and promised his supporters that there would soon be; "Good Surprises."
As I think we all know about an hour later the first reports of an apparent Sarin gas attack around the town of Khan Sheikhoun began to emerge. Erdogan wasted no time in dispatching Turkish medical staff deep into Syria and declaring they had discovered conclusive evidence that the Syrians were responsible. We are now just waiting for Erdogan to dispatch regular Turkish troops deep into Syria to 'protect' the medical staff.
It is apparent that at least two chemical weapons agents were at work near Khan Sheikhoun. There is an irritant such as Chlorine which has produced all the emotive images of children hooked up to oxygen masks and the 'heroic' White Helmets rescuing people. There is also a nerve agent similar to Sarin which has produced the deaths.
What is striking about events near Khan Sheikhoun is the current deathtoll of around 80 is almost comically low for this type of attack.
On March 16th 1988 (16/3/88) Iraq forces of Saddam Hussein used primarily a mixture of Sulphur Mustard gas and Sarin gas against the Kurdish city of Halabja. This killed 5,000 people and wounded 10,000 more.
The international response to the Halabja attack was to do exactly nothing. Rather proving that former US Barack Obama's claim that the World has not tolerated the use of chemical weapons since the First World War as a political deceit intended to target the Syrian government.
On the night of December 2nd (2/12/84) through December 3rd (3/12/84) there was a leak at the Union Carbide chemical factory in the Indian town of Bhopal. This killed close to 4,000 people and wounded 40,000 more.
In 2010 Union Carbide finally confirmed that the main gas that leaked was Methyl Isocynate. An industrial pesticide designed as a less dangerous alternative to compounds such as Sarin and VX.
On July 3rd 2016 (3/7/16) ISIL detonated a Vehicle Borne Improvised Explosive Device (VBIED) in the Karrada district of the Iraqi capital Baghdad. The explosion and ensuing fire killed 341 people and wounded more than 225.
Just on March 17th (17/3/17) another ISIL VBIED was detonated in the al-Jadida neighbourhood in the Iraqi city of Mosul. This occurred in an area that is still very much an active combat zone so this is not an exact deathtoll but we are talking around 200 dead.
On November 13th 2015 (13/11/15) ISIL conducted a sophisticated marauding attack on the French capital Paris. This killed 137 people and wounded 370.
On July 14th 2016 (14/7/16) ISIL used a truck to conduct a run-over attack in the French city of Nice. This killed 87 people and wounded 434.
So the frightening fact is that not only are events in Khan Sheikhoun out of all proportion of what you would expect from a nerve agent attack the deathtoll is very much at the low end of the type of violence we've come to accept as normal in these last six years of war.
At around 12:10 on 7/4/17 (UK date) I'm barely warmed up.
Edited at around 18:55 on 7/3/17 (UK date) to add; I've finally been allowed back on the server.
Erdogan's "Good Surprise" in Khan Sheikhoun was of course proceeded by twin bomb attacks against the underground rail (Metro) system in the Russian of Saint Petersburg on April 3rd (3/4/17). Those attacks were carried out by Saudi Arabia.
As with the December 29th 2013 (29/12/13) and December 30th (30/12/13) bombings in Volgograd these were the result of the ultimatum issued by the former head of Saudi intelligence Prince Bandar to Russian President Vladimir Putin in August 2013. Either Russia ends its opposition to ISIL or Saudi Arabia will use Sunni Muslims in Chechnya to conduct terror attacks against the 2014 Winter Olympic Games held in Sochi, Russia.
Following the Volgograd attacks the Russia security services were quickly able to shut down the Saudi backed cell responsible. So by way of compensation former US President Barack Obama created ISIL's Shamali (northern) Province within the borders of the former nation state of Ukraine.
Sweden have long been an extremely vocal supporter of the creation of Shamali Province. The source for many of the entirely false stories you hear of Russian soldiers being killed in Shamali Province is the Swedish intelligence services who distribute them through their Human Rights House front organisation.
It seems that today the Swedish city of Stockholm is reaping the rewards of that support for Shamali Province.
The perpetrator of the St Petersburg attacks has been identified as Akbarzahon Jalilov - a 22 year old naturalised Russian citizen from Kyrgyzstan. This is a reference to the January 1st (1/1/17) attack on the Reina attack in Istanbul, Turkey. Amongst other things Erdogan took great pleasure in speculating whether this attack had been carried out by a Krgyz in an apparent threat to permanent member of the UN Security Council (UNSC) China.
However it was referenced in the St Petersburg attack to pose a very specific question; "Having prior knowledge of Erdogan's plans to conduct a Sarin attack in Khan Sheikhoun is Saudi Arabia continuing to stand with him as an ally or recoiling in horror at his actions?"
This was the extremely unsettling question that hung over head of British Prime Minister Theresa May as throughout her visit to Saudi Arabia on April 4th (4/4/17) and April 5th (5/4/17).
So when France - as a permanent member of the UNSC - decided to reprise the role of Global Village Idiot that it performed during the liberation of Aleppo City Britain had no option then to support it. In public at least.
The text of the draft resolution France introduced almost explicitly blames the Syrian government for the Khan Sheikhoun attack. It goes on to demand that Syrian effectively grounds its entire air force and ceases with any attempt to repel the Army of Conquest's Hama offensive.
It makes no mention of changing the OPCW's mandate to allow it to investigate the possibility that a party other than the Syrian government uses chemical weapons. It doesn't even require that the OPCW travel to the area where this attack is alleged to have taken place.
So despite forcing the UK to support its draft France was only able to secure support from Senegal and Shamali Province. This gang of four is far short of what is require to force a vote at the UNSC let alone forcing a veto. After all everyone knows that as a former French colony Senegal is being paid for its support and no-one except Sweden think Shamali Province has any right to be there.
It almost goes without saying then that the open UNSC meeting on Wednesday (5/4/17) on the French submission ended without a vote.
On Thursday (6/4/17) evening though Russia called a second closed meeting to discuss France's submission. This was really an opportunity for Russia to give the UK a kicking. Let's just say that the UK's public statements on events at Khan Sheikhoun are offensively different from their private statements.
For example yesterday (6/4/17) afternoon the UK Ambassador to the UN Matthew Rycroft said publicly; "All evidence points to regime responsibility for Syria Gas Attack. A humiliation for the ally who has protected Assad: Russia."
Meanwhile in mothers' home town of Salisbury an interesting Coroners Inquest was opening. In 2015 British Airways pilot Richard Westgate died of what is known as; "Aerotoxic Syndrome." Specifically an organophosphate had entered the aircraft's oxygen system causing his death.
However in opening the Inquest the Coroner declared that there would be no investigation of how the organophosphate entered the oxygen supply. The implication being that such an investigation would produce embarrassing results.
Britain being forced to come clean certainly did not help France's case leaving them with just three votes in support of their draft effectively praising Erdogan's use of Sarin.
Unfortunately from the experience of the liberation of Aleppo City the French are utterly incapable of reading the mood in the room. So despite the lack of support they will keep hammering away demanding the UNSC endorse their praise of the use of Sarin.
This puts a lot of pressure on nations such as the UK and the US to explain why they're claiming to support the French position in public but refusing to vote in support of them.
So on the sidelines of last night's closed UNSC meeting the US, the UK, Russia and Syria agreed a plan. Syria would evacuate the Shayrat airbase to allow the US to fire some Cruise missiles at it. In return the US would make sure to largely miss the airbase. The intention being to make it look like something was being done in order to defuse the mounting pressure.
In the trade this is known as; "A Clinton Blow Job." Or more officially; "Operation: Inherent Reach."
In 1998 former US President Bill Clinton was being impeached over lying about his sexual relationship with Monica Lewinsky. So he fired some Cruise missiles at Al Qaeda camps in Afghanistan to distract the press and release the pressure on him. Then as now all the talk was about the threat of organophosphate nerve agents.
This course of behaviour puts me in an extremely difficult position. Obviously I can't avoid commenting on the US attacking a Syrian airbase. Integrity demands that my comments are at least vaguely accurate.
What really dooms the plan to failure though is that US journalists - particularly those working for CNN - are either thick as pig sh*t or active members of Al Qaeda. I'm sure you realise that those two groups are far from mutually exclusive
So within in minutes of the attacks being made public CNN were reporting that Russia had given its prior consent for the strikes. As the day progressed they've escalated into calls for more strikes.
They have been given plenty of ammunition by the US Ambassador to the UN Nikki Hayley's decision to hold an open UNSC session today in which she and the UK were forced to publicly repeat claims that not even they believe.
Now the US has entered into this spiral of calls for more strikes against Syria we known that Erdogan will be emboldened. We know that he will carry out more Sarin attacks.
We're currently all scrambling around to discover when and where and if we can stop it.
20:05 on 7/4/17 (UK date).
However for simplicity's sake and to avoid treading on the toes of intelligence agencies it is better to talk in terms of the four main blocs these individuals and groups operate in;
The Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF/QSD): Formed by the Kurdish People's Protection Units (YPG) this is a ethnically diverse coalition of Kurds, Arabs, Assyrians and Turkmen. It is also religiously diverse with its membership including Sunni-Muslims, Shia-Muslims, Christians and Yezidis. It almost goes without saying that it is a moderate, secular and democratic group.
The Southern Front: This exclusively Sunni-Arab group is something of a wildcard. It was initially established with the objective of wiping out Syria's Shia-Muslim, Christian, Yezidi and Druze populations. However under the close supervision of Britain and Jordan it has begun to moderate its behaviour and leave behind its worst genocidal excesses.
The Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL): Probably the most famous of all the armed groups ISIL is made up almost exclusively of people who are not native to either Syria nor Iraq. They claim to be Sunni-Muslim in ideology. However their version of Sunni-Islam requires them to cleanse the Levant region of all those who do not share their ideology. This needs to be done in order to bring about the end of the World. As such ISIL's true ideology is one of Nihilism.
ISIL are closely allied with;
The Army of Conquest/Jaish al-Fatah (JAF): This exclusively Sunni-Arab coalition is headed by The Base/Al Qaeda's affiliate within Syria The Support Front/Jabhat al-Nusra (ANF). As with ISIL their objective is to force all those living within the Levant region to adhere to a strict - and some would say perverse - form of Salafi Islam. However unlike ISIL they do not believe that this must be done in order to end the World.
Alongside Al Qaeda the main groups within the Army of Conquest are;
The Islamic Movement of Freemen of the Levant/Harakat Ahrar ash-Sham al-Islamiyya (Ahrar al-Sham). It almost goes without saying that that Islamic Movement of the Levant (Ahrar al-Sham) is almost identical in ideology to the Islamic State of the Levant (ISL).
The Army of Islam/Jaish al-Islam (JAI): This thankfully small group represents the main point of friction between ISIL and the Army of Conquest. The Army of Islam share ISIL's ideology but consider ISIL to be too moderate. They have on several occasions brutally murdered members of ISIL for not being extreme enough in their pursuit of genocide.
The United Turkmen Army (UTA): This is an irregular branch of the Turkish military. Specifically it is part of the Grey Wolves who are the paramilitary wing of Turkey's fascist Nationalist Movement Party (MHP). Due to internal Turkish political matters the MHP have been all but absorbed by the Islamist Justice & Development Party (AKP) of Turkey's President/Prime Minister/Emperor Recep Tayyip Erdogan.
Not only is Turkey an active member of the Army of Conquest it is also one of the main backers of ISIL. Erdogan's objective in doing this is simple. He wishes to use the Army of Conquest and ISIL to overthrow first the Syrian and then the Egyptian governments in order to establish a new Ottoman Empire with himself as Emperor.
The good news is that both ISIL and the Army of Conquest are in extremely bad shape both in Iraq and Syria. We are not yet talking about them being on the brink of total defeat but we are certainly starting to think in those terms.
In August 2016 Erdogan sent regular Turkish military forces to illegally invade and occupy a roughly 100km (60 miles) stretch of Turkey's border with Syria. With the towns of Azaz/Kilis in the west and the Euphrates River in the east this area has been designated; "Garvaghy Road."
Erdogan's objective in this invasion was to preserve supply lines from Turkey to Army of Conquest positions in east Aleppo City and to ISIL positions in Raqqa. At the time those supply lines were coming under intense pressure from the SDF.
In December 2016 east Aleppo City was liberated from the Army of Conquest. Since then the Army of Conquest have been forced to surrender areas around the Syrian capital Damascus and the cities of Homs and Hama.
In practical terms this now limits the Army of Conquest to a small area along Syria's border with Turkey centred around the city of Idlib. This area has been designated; "The Sudetenland" in reference to the similarity between Erdogan's attempts to annex and conquer Syria and Nazi Germany's attempts to annex and conquer Czechoslovakia in 1938.
Amid this steady stream of defeat after defeat there has though been a beacon of hope shining out for both the Army of Conquest and ISIL. This is the United Nations sponsored Geneva Process on Syria.
The objective of the Geneva Process has never been to bring peace to Syria not to defeat groups like ISIL and the Army of Conquest. Instead it is designed to empower those groups to overthrow the Syrian government presumably in order to establish the new Ottoman Empire or to bring about the end of the World.
The latest round of meetings in the Geneva Process began on March 23rd (23/3/17). The Army of Conquests prime objective from this round was to get itself included in what is known as; "The Astana Ceasefire." Without inclusion within this ceasefire the Army of Conquest are almost assured of defeat.
Battling for their very survival the Army of Conquest set about this objective by unleashing the most intense campaign of violence they could muster. The thinking being this would intimidate the Syrians into including them in the Astana Ceasefire alongside groups such as the Southern Front who are not allied with either Al Qaeda or ISIL.
The main part of the Army of Conquest's campaign was a conventional military offensive against Hama City. Launched from the Hama countryside around the towns of Kernaz and Khan Sheikhoun the objective was to advance along around 45km (30 miles) to reach Hama City re-capturing the territory the Army of Conquest had recently lost.
Just prior to the start of the latest round of meetings in the Geneva Process - I think March 21st (21/3/17) or March 23rd (23/3/17) - the Syrians wrote the Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW). Since 2013 the OPCW have been conducting a UN mandated chemical weapons monitoring mission within Syria.
The contents of the Syrians letter to the OPCW has not been made public. However it is widely believed to have been a warning to the OPCW that the Army of Conquest were in the process of obtaining chemical weapons from Turkey and planned to use them as part of their Hama offensive.
It has become a matter of routine for both the Army of Conquest and ISIL to use the irritant Chlorine and the blister agent Sulphur Mustard as chemical weapons within the conflict in Syria and Iraq. Just off the top of my head I can think of around a dozen occasions in which the Army of Conquest - specifically the Army of Islam - have used Sulphur Mustard gas against the SDF in the Sheikh Maqsood neighbourhood of Aleppo City.
Unfortunately the objective of the OPCW's mission to Syria is not to investigate the use of chemical weapons with a view to punishing those responsible. Instead as with the Geneva Process the OPCW's mission is designed to empower groups such as ISIL and the Army of Conquest to overthrow the Syrian government.
As a result the OPCW routinely ignores the use of chemical weapons by both ISIL and the Army of Conquest. For the last month or so the UK has actually been working at the UN Security Council to force the OPCW to investigate a possible use of Chlorine by ISIL during the current battle to liberate the Iraqi city of Mosul.
So for the Syrians to instigate the sharing of battlefield intelligence with the OPCW they would have to be concerned about something much more serious then the day-to-day use of Chlorine or Sulphur Mustard. This would suggest a nerve agent such as Sarin or VX. However these are both Organophosphate compounds so you could be talking about something such as an industrial pesticide. VX was actually invented in India as an industrial pesticide.
There are no reports of the OPCW responding to the Syrians letter let alone of them acting on the information.
The latest round of meetings in the Geneva Process ended last Friday (31/3/17). They ended without the Army of Conquest being included in the Astana Ceasefire and amid legitimate questions over whether the UN would renew the mandate for the Geneva Process.
The week of this latest round of the Geneva Process also saw the Army of Conquest's Hama offensive collapse into defeat. By March 31st (31/3/17) they had lost over 70% of the territory they'd gained placing the Syrians within around 5km (3 miles) of Kernaz and 10km (6 miles) Khan Sheikhoun.
With the Army of Conquest very much being the wounded animal everyone's number one priority then became stopping them obtaining nerve agents from Turkey and failing that preventing them from using those nerve agents.
On Sunday (2/4/16) Russia conducted intense airstrikes against the villages of al-Kafeer and Babsqa. These sit directly across the border from the Turkish town of Reyhanli. This is a well known weapons smuggling route from Turkey into the Sudetenland.
In order to carry out these strikes Russian aircraft had to cross into Turkish airspace without permission. Given the November 24th 2015 (24/11/15) shooting down by Turkey of a Russian jet in the same area this was certainly a dramatic move.
On Monday (3/4/17) Russian continued intense airstrikes against known Army of Conquest weapons stores in and around Idlib City. These were obviously reported in the Turkish press as Syrian strikes against hospitals. On Tuesday (4/4/17) Russia expanded its targeting of known Army of Conquest weapons stores to the area close to where the Hama offensive is taking place.
While Russia was taking material action to destroy the nerve agent shipment the issue prompted a lot of coded discussion amongst other nations with a stake in the Syria conflict.
For example on March 30th (30/3/17) the US Navy discovered a problem with its fleet of T-45 Goshawk training aircraft. Apparently the oxygen supply system on the aircraft keeps getting contaminated with an organophosphate compound causing the pilots to suffer from hypoxia and neurological impairment. A very mild form of the effect that Sarin or VX has on the human body.
Following Russia's Reyhanli strikes this problem suddenly jumped to the US Navy's fleet of F-18 combat aircraft. Operated by many NATO nations the F-18 aircraft plays a key role in the Combined Joint Task Force: Operation Inherent Resolve (CJTFOIR) anti-ISIL coalition.
There are numerous other examples of this type of coded conversation. However I won't embarrass those who participated by listing them all here.
However British readers will have noticed that the UK chose Tuesday (4/4/17) to launch its clean air plan for its capital London. The main driving concern behind this policy is to protect schoolchildren from being exposed to toxic organic compounds in the air while they are being trained and equipped for their future role in life.
On the morning of April 4th (4/4/17) Turkish President/Prime Minister/Emperor Erdogan addressed a campaign rally for Turkey's upcoming constitutional referendum. In it he declared that Turkey would be undertaking more military action against Syria and promised his supporters that there would soon be; "Good Surprises."
As I think we all know about an hour later the first reports of an apparent Sarin gas attack around the town of Khan Sheikhoun began to emerge. Erdogan wasted no time in dispatching Turkish medical staff deep into Syria and declaring they had discovered conclusive evidence that the Syrians were responsible. We are now just waiting for Erdogan to dispatch regular Turkish troops deep into Syria to 'protect' the medical staff.
It is apparent that at least two chemical weapons agents were at work near Khan Sheikhoun. There is an irritant such as Chlorine which has produced all the emotive images of children hooked up to oxygen masks and the 'heroic' White Helmets rescuing people. There is also a nerve agent similar to Sarin which has produced the deaths.
What is striking about events near Khan Sheikhoun is the current deathtoll of around 80 is almost comically low for this type of attack.
On March 16th 1988 (16/3/88) Iraq forces of Saddam Hussein used primarily a mixture of Sulphur Mustard gas and Sarin gas against the Kurdish city of Halabja. This killed 5,000 people and wounded 10,000 more.
The international response to the Halabja attack was to do exactly nothing. Rather proving that former US Barack Obama's claim that the World has not tolerated the use of chemical weapons since the First World War as a political deceit intended to target the Syrian government.
On the night of December 2nd (2/12/84) through December 3rd (3/12/84) there was a leak at the Union Carbide chemical factory in the Indian town of Bhopal. This killed close to 4,000 people and wounded 40,000 more.
In 2010 Union Carbide finally confirmed that the main gas that leaked was Methyl Isocynate. An industrial pesticide designed as a less dangerous alternative to compounds such as Sarin and VX.
On July 3rd 2016 (3/7/16) ISIL detonated a Vehicle Borne Improvised Explosive Device (VBIED) in the Karrada district of the Iraqi capital Baghdad. The explosion and ensuing fire killed 341 people and wounded more than 225.
Just on March 17th (17/3/17) another ISIL VBIED was detonated in the al-Jadida neighbourhood in the Iraqi city of Mosul. This occurred in an area that is still very much an active combat zone so this is not an exact deathtoll but we are talking around 200 dead.
On November 13th 2015 (13/11/15) ISIL conducted a sophisticated marauding attack on the French capital Paris. This killed 137 people and wounded 370.
On July 14th 2016 (14/7/16) ISIL used a truck to conduct a run-over attack in the French city of Nice. This killed 87 people and wounded 434.
So the frightening fact is that not only are events in Khan Sheikhoun out of all proportion of what you would expect from a nerve agent attack the deathtoll is very much at the low end of the type of violence we've come to accept as normal in these last six years of war.
At around 12:10 on 7/4/17 (UK date) I'm barely warmed up.
Edited at around 18:55 on 7/3/17 (UK date) to add; I've finally been allowed back on the server.
Erdogan's "Good Surprise" in Khan Sheikhoun was of course proceeded by twin bomb attacks against the underground rail (Metro) system in the Russian of Saint Petersburg on April 3rd (3/4/17). Those attacks were carried out by Saudi Arabia.
As with the December 29th 2013 (29/12/13) and December 30th (30/12/13) bombings in Volgograd these were the result of the ultimatum issued by the former head of Saudi intelligence Prince Bandar to Russian President Vladimir Putin in August 2013. Either Russia ends its opposition to ISIL or Saudi Arabia will use Sunni Muslims in Chechnya to conduct terror attacks against the 2014 Winter Olympic Games held in Sochi, Russia.
Following the Volgograd attacks the Russia security services were quickly able to shut down the Saudi backed cell responsible. So by way of compensation former US President Barack Obama created ISIL's Shamali (northern) Province within the borders of the former nation state of Ukraine.
Sweden have long been an extremely vocal supporter of the creation of Shamali Province. The source for many of the entirely false stories you hear of Russian soldiers being killed in Shamali Province is the Swedish intelligence services who distribute them through their Human Rights House front organisation.
It seems that today the Swedish city of Stockholm is reaping the rewards of that support for Shamali Province.
The perpetrator of the St Petersburg attacks has been identified as Akbarzahon Jalilov - a 22 year old naturalised Russian citizen from Kyrgyzstan. This is a reference to the January 1st (1/1/17) attack on the Reina attack in Istanbul, Turkey. Amongst other things Erdogan took great pleasure in speculating whether this attack had been carried out by a Krgyz in an apparent threat to permanent member of the UN Security Council (UNSC) China.
However it was referenced in the St Petersburg attack to pose a very specific question; "Having prior knowledge of Erdogan's plans to conduct a Sarin attack in Khan Sheikhoun is Saudi Arabia continuing to stand with him as an ally or recoiling in horror at his actions?"
This was the extremely unsettling question that hung over head of British Prime Minister Theresa May as throughout her visit to Saudi Arabia on April 4th (4/4/17) and April 5th (5/4/17).
So when France - as a permanent member of the UNSC - decided to reprise the role of Global Village Idiot that it performed during the liberation of Aleppo City Britain had no option then to support it. In public at least.
The text of the draft resolution France introduced almost explicitly blames the Syrian government for the Khan Sheikhoun attack. It goes on to demand that Syrian effectively grounds its entire air force and ceases with any attempt to repel the Army of Conquest's Hama offensive.
It makes no mention of changing the OPCW's mandate to allow it to investigate the possibility that a party other than the Syrian government uses chemical weapons. It doesn't even require that the OPCW travel to the area where this attack is alleged to have taken place.
So despite forcing the UK to support its draft France was only able to secure support from Senegal and Shamali Province. This gang of four is far short of what is require to force a vote at the UNSC let alone forcing a veto. After all everyone knows that as a former French colony Senegal is being paid for its support and no-one except Sweden think Shamali Province has any right to be there.
It almost goes without saying then that the open UNSC meeting on Wednesday (5/4/17) on the French submission ended without a vote.
On Thursday (6/4/17) evening though Russia called a second closed meeting to discuss France's submission. This was really an opportunity for Russia to give the UK a kicking. Let's just say that the UK's public statements on events at Khan Sheikhoun are offensively different from their private statements.
For example yesterday (6/4/17) afternoon the UK Ambassador to the UN Matthew Rycroft said publicly; "All evidence points to regime responsibility for Syria Gas Attack. A humiliation for the ally who has protected Assad: Russia."
Meanwhile in mothers' home town of Salisbury an interesting Coroners Inquest was opening. In 2015 British Airways pilot Richard Westgate died of what is known as; "Aerotoxic Syndrome." Specifically an organophosphate had entered the aircraft's oxygen system causing his death.
However in opening the Inquest the Coroner declared that there would be no investigation of how the organophosphate entered the oxygen supply. The implication being that such an investigation would produce embarrassing results.
Britain being forced to come clean certainly did not help France's case leaving them with just three votes in support of their draft effectively praising Erdogan's use of Sarin.
Unfortunately from the experience of the liberation of Aleppo City the French are utterly incapable of reading the mood in the room. So despite the lack of support they will keep hammering away demanding the UNSC endorse their praise of the use of Sarin.
This puts a lot of pressure on nations such as the UK and the US to explain why they're claiming to support the French position in public but refusing to vote in support of them.
So on the sidelines of last night's closed UNSC meeting the US, the UK, Russia and Syria agreed a plan. Syria would evacuate the Shayrat airbase to allow the US to fire some Cruise missiles at it. In return the US would make sure to largely miss the airbase. The intention being to make it look like something was being done in order to defuse the mounting pressure.
In the trade this is known as; "A Clinton Blow Job." Or more officially; "Operation: Inherent Reach."
In 1998 former US President Bill Clinton was being impeached over lying about his sexual relationship with Monica Lewinsky. So he fired some Cruise missiles at Al Qaeda camps in Afghanistan to distract the press and release the pressure on him. Then as now all the talk was about the threat of organophosphate nerve agents.
This course of behaviour puts me in an extremely difficult position. Obviously I can't avoid commenting on the US attacking a Syrian airbase. Integrity demands that my comments are at least vaguely accurate.
What really dooms the plan to failure though is that US journalists - particularly those working for CNN - are either thick as pig sh*t or active members of Al Qaeda. I'm sure you realise that those two groups are far from mutually exclusive
So within in minutes of the attacks being made public CNN were reporting that Russia had given its prior consent for the strikes. As the day progressed they've escalated into calls for more strikes.
They have been given plenty of ammunition by the US Ambassador to the UN Nikki Hayley's decision to hold an open UNSC session today in which she and the UK were forced to publicly repeat claims that not even they believe.
Now the US has entered into this spiral of calls for more strikes against Syria we known that Erdogan will be emboldened. We know that he will carry out more Sarin attacks.
We're currently all scrambling around to discover when and where and if we can stop it.
20:05 on 7/4/17 (UK date).
Tuesday, 4 April 2017
Operation Featherweight: Month 33, Week 2, Day 7.
Don't be at all surprised if this all seems remarkably familiar;
In Iraq ISIL now hold less than a quarter of the city of Mosul. This northern city has functioned as ISIL's de facto capital within Iraq since the summer of 2014 and following the liberations of Tikrit, Ramadi and Fallujah is the last major city the group control within Iraq.
Within Syria the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) are currently engaged in an operation to liberate the town of Tabqa from ISIL. This sits around 40km (25 miles) west of Raqqa - ISIL's de facto capital in Syria.
The SDF already control the vast 15,200kmsq (9,120 milesq) plus area to the north-east of Raqqa and the Euphrates River. They also control the main road running on the north side of the Euphrates linking Raqqa to Deir-ez-Zour. This leaves ISIL extremely isolated within Raqqa.
ISIL's main ally within Syria is the Army of Conquest/Jaish al-Fatah (JAF) coalition. This is led by The Base/Al Qaeda's Syrian affiliate The Support Front/Jabhat al-Nusra (ANF) and includes radical Islamist groups such as the Islamic Movement of the Freemen of the Levant/Harakat Ahrar ash-Sham al-Islamiyya (Ahrar al-Sham) and the Army of Islam/Jaish al-Islam.
The Army of Conquest are in almost as bad shape as ISIL.
In December 2016 the Army of Conquest were ousted from the city of Aleppo. The Syrians and the Russians are also in the process of liberating the areas between Aleppo City and the capital Damascus from the Army of Conquest.
With the Army of Conquest recently being forced to surrender their positions around the city of Hama this realistically limits them to a small area around the city of Idlib. This area has been designated; "The Sudetenland."
The name relates to Nazi Germany's annexation an eventual invasion of Czechoslovakia in 1938. This saw the Nazis supply weapons to irregular armed groups within Czechoslovakia in order for them to carry out terror attacks against themselves.
Nazi Germany then used these attacks as an excuse to send regular troops into Czechoslovakia in order to protect civilians by establishing safe-havens which they termed; "Protectorates."
There remains though a beacon of hope shining out for both ISIL and the Army of Conquest. This is the United Nations (UN) Geneva Process on Syria.
The purpose of the UN's Geneva Process has never been to defeat groups like ISIL or the Army of Conquest. Nor has it been to bring peace to Syria. Instead its purpose is to empower groups like ISIL and the Army of Conquest to overthrow the Syrian government and establish a Sunni Islamist terror state. This is something that is wholly illegal under international law and completely beyond the remit of the UN.
Since December 2016 the UN's Geneva Process has been rivalled by the Russian-led Astana Process on Syria. This has seen the creation of the Astana Ceasefire and the Astana Ceasefire Mechanism. The purpose of the Astana Ceasefire Mechanism is to provide a structure to determine whether the Astana Ceasefire applies to the Army of Conquest.
The Army of Conquest very much need to be included in the Astana Ceasefire in order to survive.
So the most recent round of meetings in the Astana Process held on March 15th (15/3/17) and March 16th (16/3/17) were accompanied by a significant upsurge in violence by the Army of Conquest.
For example they launched the large suicide bombings on Damascus on March 11th (11/3/17) and March 15th (15/3/17). The purpose of these attacks were to intimidate the Syrians and the Russians to include the Army of Conquest in the Astana Ceasefire.
In an effort to end the rivalry between the Geneva Process and the Astana Process the Geneva Process has adopted the Astana Ceasefire as one of its objectives. However it has not adopted the Astana Ceasefire Mechanism.
The latest round of meetings in the Geneva Process - Geneva V - began on March 23rd (23/3/17) and ended last Friday (31/3/17). As with the meetings in the Astana Process the Geneva Process meetings were also accompanied by an upsurge in violence by the Army of Conquest.
On March 22nd (22/3/17) there was a combined run-over and stabbing attack by a single attacker on the UK Parliament building in London. Of late there have been growing indications that the UK is no longer prepared to be as supportive of either ISIL or the Army of Conquest as it once was.
March 24th (24/3/17) six members of the Chechen National Guard were killed in an Islamist terror attack in the Chechnya region of Russia. Since the liberation of Aleppo City the Chechen National Guard have been acting as a military police service providing security in the city. Within the week of the attack the Chechen National Guard were rotating their deployment with some troops returning home and others replacing them.
On March 23rd (23/3/17) Russia's deeply troubled neighbour Shamali Province (nee; Ukraine) saw a massive fire engulf a large arms depot causing the town of Balakeya to be completely evacuated. Later that day former Russian MP and now dissident Denis Voronenkov was shot and killed in Kiev.
Under former US President Barack Obama the western reflex to either of these incidents would be to blame Russia and impose more economic sanctions.
The Army of Conquest's main attempt to exert pressure on the Syrians and the Russians ahead of the Geneva Process meetings though was to launch a conventional military assault on the city of Hama on March 22nd (22/3/17).
Hama City is around 120km (70 miles) south of Idlib City and around 180km (110 miles) north-east of Damascus. The purpose was to regain the territory the Army of Conquest had been forced to surrender.
Due to the nature of the Geneva Process talks it is quite difficult to assess how they are progressing. However from the way the talks are being conducted you can tell that they are extremely far away from any sort of agreement.
The Geneva Process has not yet got to the point where the different parties are meeting face-to-face. Instead the parties are meeting amongst themselves to discuss the key areas known as baskets. The UN's Special Envoy Steffen de Mistura then relays messages between the parties. With each party's position effectively being held in a silo everybody is working very hard to make sure that no information leaks out.
However this latest round of meetings in the Geneva Process most certainly did not result in the Army of Conquest being included in the Astana Ceasefire.
The meetings were really dominated by the fact that de Mistura's mandate from the UN to conduct the talks expired on the final day of the talks - March 31st (31/3/17). As a result he now needs to go back to the UN in order to have his mandate renewed before any more meetings in the Geneva Process can take place.
Steffen de Mistura's own press conference at the end of the talks were very much dominated by his need to seek further approval from the UN in order to proceed. He seemed unsure as to whether he would receive such approval seeming to shift all responsibility onto the Astana Process. The next round of meetings in the Astana Process are not scheduled to take place until mid-May.
Adding to their failure to be included in the Astana Ceasefire the most recent round of Geneva Process has also seen the failure of the Army of Conquest's Hama offensive.
When this offensive was launched on March 22nd (22/3/17) neither the Syrians nor the Russians made any effort to repel it. This allowed the Army of Conquest to seize roughly 5kmsq (3 milesq) area of territory near the town of Kernaz - roughly 40km (25 miles) north-west of Hama City. However on March 24th (24/3/17) the Syrians and the Russians did launch a counter-offensive.
After just two days of the counter-offensive on March 26th (26/3/17) the Army of Conquest started accusing the Syrians and the Russians of carrying out Chlorine gas attacks. They used these accusations to demand not only that they be included in the Astana Ceasefire but that the UN Security Council (UNSC) meet immediately and impose a separate ceasefire.
However the accusations of Chlorine gas attacks were not enough to move the UNSC. Since then it has been defeat after defeat for the Army of Conquest. As of last Friday (31/3/17) they had lost over 70% of the territory they had gained in those first two days. There is no indication that the Syrian and Russian counter-offensive will stop once the Army of Conquest's recent gains have been completely reversed.
So yesterday (3/4/17) we saw yet another Sunni-Islamist terror attack against Russia. This took the form of twin bomb attacks against the underground rail (Metro) system in the Russian city of St Petersburg. Specifically they attacked the downtown district of St Petersburg which is currently in the spotlight due to the centenary of Russia's 1917 Communist Revolution.
Therefore apart from the threat of more terror attacks the St Petersburg attacks also seem intended to serve as a threat that a 2017 Russian Revolution will be arranged unless Russia drops its long standing opposition to both ISIL and the Army of Conquest.
Today it has been confirmed that the deathtoll from the St Petersburg attacks has risen to 14 with a further 49 seriously injured in hospital. It has also been confirmed that the suicide attack was carried out by Akbarzahon Jalilov - a 22 year old naturalised Russian citizen from Kyrgyzstan.
This seems to reference the January 1st 2017 (1/1/17) Sunni-Islamist terror attack against the Reina nightclub in Istanbul, Turkey.
In the wake of that attack Turkish President/Prime Minister/Emperor Recep Tayyip Erdogan seemed to take great pleasure in speculating whether the attacker was from Kyrgyzstan. Amongst other things this was done to extend Erdogan's threats to China - a permanent member of the UNSC. It is reasonably common for Muslims from China's Xinjiang province to obtain Kyrgz passports in order to travel to fight for both ISIL and the Army of Conquest.
Within Syria today widespread reports have emerged of a chemical weapons attack in the Sudetenland area. Specifically on the town of Khan Sheikhoun. This is around 75km (45 miles) south of Idlib City and around 45km (30 miles) north of Hama City. Crucially it is just 16km (9.5 miles) north-east of Kernaz when the Army of Conquest March 22nd (22/3/17) Hama offensive is currently failing.
This attack appears to have used two chemical agents; The organophosphate nerve agent Sarin which has produced the corpses. Also the irritant Chlorine which has produced the emotive images of children hooked up to oxygen masks and members of the Army of Conquest's White Helmets division 'heroically' treating the victims.
Unlike the claimed March 26th (26/3/17) Chlorine attack near Kernaz this does seem to have caught the UNSC's attention. France is calling for an emergency session for today - the first such under the US' Presidency of the council - and the UN Commission has already opened an inquiry.
No doubt the first stage of this inquiry will be calls upon the Syrians and Russians to stop rolling back the Army of Conquest's Hama offensive.
On Sunday (2/4/17) Russian aircraft conducted heavy airstrikes within the Sudetenland area. Specifically they targeted what is reported to have been some sort of weapons dump close to villages of al-Kafeer and Babsqa. These sit directly on Syria's border with Turkey some 40km (25 miles) north of Idlib City and 1km (0.6 miles) from the Turkish town of Reyhanli. This would suggest that the Russians were targeting some sort of weapons shipment from Turkey into Syria.
The Astana Ceasefire Mechanism sees Russia, Turkey and Iran argue over whether the Astana Ceasefire applies to the Army of Conquest. Therefore Russia itself carrying out airstrikes against the Army of Conquest is extremely provocative. Particularly when the strikes were carried out so close to the Turkish border that the Russian aircraft had to cross into Turkish airspace in order to carry them out.
So when I heard about this at the time it certainly piqued my interest although I didn't really know why. A Sarin gas attack occurring two days later just 100km (60 miles) away would certainly explain the Russians sense of urgency.
17:15 on 4/4/17 (UK date).
In Iraq ISIL now hold less than a quarter of the city of Mosul. This northern city has functioned as ISIL's de facto capital within Iraq since the summer of 2014 and following the liberations of Tikrit, Ramadi and Fallujah is the last major city the group control within Iraq.
Within Syria the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) are currently engaged in an operation to liberate the town of Tabqa from ISIL. This sits around 40km (25 miles) west of Raqqa - ISIL's de facto capital in Syria.
The SDF already control the vast 15,200kmsq (9,120 milesq) plus area to the north-east of Raqqa and the Euphrates River. They also control the main road running on the north side of the Euphrates linking Raqqa to Deir-ez-Zour. This leaves ISIL extremely isolated within Raqqa.
ISIL's main ally within Syria is the Army of Conquest/Jaish al-Fatah (JAF) coalition. This is led by The Base/Al Qaeda's Syrian affiliate The Support Front/Jabhat al-Nusra (ANF) and includes radical Islamist groups such as the Islamic Movement of the Freemen of the Levant/Harakat Ahrar ash-Sham al-Islamiyya (Ahrar al-Sham) and the Army of Islam/Jaish al-Islam.
The Army of Conquest are in almost as bad shape as ISIL.
In December 2016 the Army of Conquest were ousted from the city of Aleppo. The Syrians and the Russians are also in the process of liberating the areas between Aleppo City and the capital Damascus from the Army of Conquest.
With the Army of Conquest recently being forced to surrender their positions around the city of Hama this realistically limits them to a small area around the city of Idlib. This area has been designated; "The Sudetenland."
The name relates to Nazi Germany's annexation an eventual invasion of Czechoslovakia in 1938. This saw the Nazis supply weapons to irregular armed groups within Czechoslovakia in order for them to carry out terror attacks against themselves.
Nazi Germany then used these attacks as an excuse to send regular troops into Czechoslovakia in order to protect civilians by establishing safe-havens which they termed; "Protectorates."
There remains though a beacon of hope shining out for both ISIL and the Army of Conquest. This is the United Nations (UN) Geneva Process on Syria.
The purpose of the UN's Geneva Process has never been to defeat groups like ISIL or the Army of Conquest. Nor has it been to bring peace to Syria. Instead its purpose is to empower groups like ISIL and the Army of Conquest to overthrow the Syrian government and establish a Sunni Islamist terror state. This is something that is wholly illegal under international law and completely beyond the remit of the UN.
Since December 2016 the UN's Geneva Process has been rivalled by the Russian-led Astana Process on Syria. This has seen the creation of the Astana Ceasefire and the Astana Ceasefire Mechanism. The purpose of the Astana Ceasefire Mechanism is to provide a structure to determine whether the Astana Ceasefire applies to the Army of Conquest.
The Army of Conquest very much need to be included in the Astana Ceasefire in order to survive.
So the most recent round of meetings in the Astana Process held on March 15th (15/3/17) and March 16th (16/3/17) were accompanied by a significant upsurge in violence by the Army of Conquest.
For example they launched the large suicide bombings on Damascus on March 11th (11/3/17) and March 15th (15/3/17). The purpose of these attacks were to intimidate the Syrians and the Russians to include the Army of Conquest in the Astana Ceasefire.
In an effort to end the rivalry between the Geneva Process and the Astana Process the Geneva Process has adopted the Astana Ceasefire as one of its objectives. However it has not adopted the Astana Ceasefire Mechanism.
The latest round of meetings in the Geneva Process - Geneva V - began on March 23rd (23/3/17) and ended last Friday (31/3/17). As with the meetings in the Astana Process the Geneva Process meetings were also accompanied by an upsurge in violence by the Army of Conquest.
On March 22nd (22/3/17) there was a combined run-over and stabbing attack by a single attacker on the UK Parliament building in London. Of late there have been growing indications that the UK is no longer prepared to be as supportive of either ISIL or the Army of Conquest as it once was.
March 24th (24/3/17) six members of the Chechen National Guard were killed in an Islamist terror attack in the Chechnya region of Russia. Since the liberation of Aleppo City the Chechen National Guard have been acting as a military police service providing security in the city. Within the week of the attack the Chechen National Guard were rotating their deployment with some troops returning home and others replacing them.
On March 23rd (23/3/17) Russia's deeply troubled neighbour Shamali Province (nee; Ukraine) saw a massive fire engulf a large arms depot causing the town of Balakeya to be completely evacuated. Later that day former Russian MP and now dissident Denis Voronenkov was shot and killed in Kiev.
Under former US President Barack Obama the western reflex to either of these incidents would be to blame Russia and impose more economic sanctions.
The Army of Conquest's main attempt to exert pressure on the Syrians and the Russians ahead of the Geneva Process meetings though was to launch a conventional military assault on the city of Hama on March 22nd (22/3/17).
Hama City is around 120km (70 miles) south of Idlib City and around 180km (110 miles) north-east of Damascus. The purpose was to regain the territory the Army of Conquest had been forced to surrender.
Due to the nature of the Geneva Process talks it is quite difficult to assess how they are progressing. However from the way the talks are being conducted you can tell that they are extremely far away from any sort of agreement.
The Geneva Process has not yet got to the point where the different parties are meeting face-to-face. Instead the parties are meeting amongst themselves to discuss the key areas known as baskets. The UN's Special Envoy Steffen de Mistura then relays messages between the parties. With each party's position effectively being held in a silo everybody is working very hard to make sure that no information leaks out.
However this latest round of meetings in the Geneva Process most certainly did not result in the Army of Conquest being included in the Astana Ceasefire.
The meetings were really dominated by the fact that de Mistura's mandate from the UN to conduct the talks expired on the final day of the talks - March 31st (31/3/17). As a result he now needs to go back to the UN in order to have his mandate renewed before any more meetings in the Geneva Process can take place.
Steffen de Mistura's own press conference at the end of the talks were very much dominated by his need to seek further approval from the UN in order to proceed. He seemed unsure as to whether he would receive such approval seeming to shift all responsibility onto the Astana Process. The next round of meetings in the Astana Process are not scheduled to take place until mid-May.
Adding to their failure to be included in the Astana Ceasefire the most recent round of Geneva Process has also seen the failure of the Army of Conquest's Hama offensive.
When this offensive was launched on March 22nd (22/3/17) neither the Syrians nor the Russians made any effort to repel it. This allowed the Army of Conquest to seize roughly 5kmsq (3 milesq) area of territory near the town of Kernaz - roughly 40km (25 miles) north-west of Hama City. However on March 24th (24/3/17) the Syrians and the Russians did launch a counter-offensive.
After just two days of the counter-offensive on March 26th (26/3/17) the Army of Conquest started accusing the Syrians and the Russians of carrying out Chlorine gas attacks. They used these accusations to demand not only that they be included in the Astana Ceasefire but that the UN Security Council (UNSC) meet immediately and impose a separate ceasefire.
However the accusations of Chlorine gas attacks were not enough to move the UNSC. Since then it has been defeat after defeat for the Army of Conquest. As of last Friday (31/3/17) they had lost over 70% of the territory they had gained in those first two days. There is no indication that the Syrian and Russian counter-offensive will stop once the Army of Conquest's recent gains have been completely reversed.
So yesterday (3/4/17) we saw yet another Sunni-Islamist terror attack against Russia. This took the form of twin bomb attacks against the underground rail (Metro) system in the Russian city of St Petersburg. Specifically they attacked the downtown district of St Petersburg which is currently in the spotlight due to the centenary of Russia's 1917 Communist Revolution.
Therefore apart from the threat of more terror attacks the St Petersburg attacks also seem intended to serve as a threat that a 2017 Russian Revolution will be arranged unless Russia drops its long standing opposition to both ISIL and the Army of Conquest.
Today it has been confirmed that the deathtoll from the St Petersburg attacks has risen to 14 with a further 49 seriously injured in hospital. It has also been confirmed that the suicide attack was carried out by Akbarzahon Jalilov - a 22 year old naturalised Russian citizen from Kyrgyzstan.
This seems to reference the January 1st 2017 (1/1/17) Sunni-Islamist terror attack against the Reina nightclub in Istanbul, Turkey.
In the wake of that attack Turkish President/Prime Minister/Emperor Recep Tayyip Erdogan seemed to take great pleasure in speculating whether the attacker was from Kyrgyzstan. Amongst other things this was done to extend Erdogan's threats to China - a permanent member of the UNSC. It is reasonably common for Muslims from China's Xinjiang province to obtain Kyrgz passports in order to travel to fight for both ISIL and the Army of Conquest.
Within Syria today widespread reports have emerged of a chemical weapons attack in the Sudetenland area. Specifically on the town of Khan Sheikhoun. This is around 75km (45 miles) south of Idlib City and around 45km (30 miles) north of Hama City. Crucially it is just 16km (9.5 miles) north-east of Kernaz when the Army of Conquest March 22nd (22/3/17) Hama offensive is currently failing.
This attack appears to have used two chemical agents; The organophosphate nerve agent Sarin which has produced the corpses. Also the irritant Chlorine which has produced the emotive images of children hooked up to oxygen masks and members of the Army of Conquest's White Helmets division 'heroically' treating the victims.
Unlike the claimed March 26th (26/3/17) Chlorine attack near Kernaz this does seem to have caught the UNSC's attention. France is calling for an emergency session for today - the first such under the US' Presidency of the council - and the UN Commission has already opened an inquiry.
No doubt the first stage of this inquiry will be calls upon the Syrians and Russians to stop rolling back the Army of Conquest's Hama offensive.
On Sunday (2/4/17) Russian aircraft conducted heavy airstrikes within the Sudetenland area. Specifically they targeted what is reported to have been some sort of weapons dump close to villages of al-Kafeer and Babsqa. These sit directly on Syria's border with Turkey some 40km (25 miles) north of Idlib City and 1km (0.6 miles) from the Turkish town of Reyhanli. This would suggest that the Russians were targeting some sort of weapons shipment from Turkey into Syria.
The Astana Ceasefire Mechanism sees Russia, Turkey and Iran argue over whether the Astana Ceasefire applies to the Army of Conquest. Therefore Russia itself carrying out airstrikes against the Army of Conquest is extremely provocative. Particularly when the strikes were carried out so close to the Turkish border that the Russian aircraft had to cross into Turkish airspace in order to carry them out.
So when I heard about this at the time it certainly piqued my interest although I didn't really know why. A Sarin gas attack occurring two days later just 100km (60 miles) away would certainly explain the Russians sense of urgency.
17:15 on 4/4/17 (UK date).
Monday, 3 April 2017
Operation Featherweight: Month 33, Week 2, Day 6
The Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) are currently in extremely bad shape both in Iraq and in Syria.
In Iraq ISIL now hold less than a quarter of the city of Mosul. This northern city has functioned as ISIL's de facto capital within Iraq since the summer of 2014 and following the liberations of Tikrit, Ramadi and Fallujah is the last major city the group control within Iraq.
Within Syria the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) are currently engaged in an operation to liberate the town of Tabqa from ISIL. This sits around 40km (25 miles) west of Raqqa - ISIL's de facto capital in Syria.
The SDF already control the vast 15,200kmsq (9,120 milesq) plus area to the north-east of Raqqa and the Euphrates River. They also control the main road running on the north side of the Euphrates linking Raqqa to Deir-ez-Zour. This leaves ISIL extremely isolated within Raqqa.
ISIL's main ally within Syria is the Army of Conquest/Jaish al-Fatah (JAF) coalition. This is led by The Base/Al Qaeda's Syrian affiliate The Support Front/Jabhat al-Nusra (ANF) and includes radical Islamist groups such as the Islamic Movement of the Freemen of the Levant/Harakat Ahrar ash-Sham al-Islamiyya (Ahrar al-Sham) and the Army of Islam/Jaish al-Islam.
The Army of Conquest are in almost as bad shape as ISIL.
In December 2016 the Army of Conquest were ousted from the city of Aleppo. The Syrians and the Russians are also in the process of liberating the areas between Aleppo City and the capital Damascus from the Army of Conquest. With the Army of Conquest recently being forced to surrender their positions around the city of Hama this realistically limits them to a small area around the city of Idlib.
There remains though a beacon of hope shining out for both ISIL and the Army of Conquest. This is the United Nations (UN) Geneva Process on Syria.
The purpose of the UN's Geneva Process has never been to defeat groups like ISIL or the Army of Conquest. Nor has it been to bring peace to Syria. Instead its purpose is to empower groups like ISIL and the Army of Conquest to overthrow the Syrian government and establish a Sunni Islamist terror state. This is something that is wholly illegal under international law and completely beyond the remit of the UN.
Since December 2016 the UN's Geneva Process has been rivalled by the Russian-led Astana Process on Syria. This has seen the creation of the Astana Ceasefire and the Astana Ceasefire Mechanism. The purpose of the Astana Ceasefire Mechanism is to provide a structure to determine whether the Astana Ceasefire applies to the Army of Conquest.
The Army of Conquest very much need to be included in the Astana Ceasefire in order to survive.
So the most recent round of meetings in the Astana Process held on March 15th (15/3/17) and March 16th (16/3/17) were accompanied by a significant upsurge in violence by the Army of Conquest. For example the large suicide bombings on Damascus on March 11th (11/3/17) and March 15th (15/3/17). The purpose of these attacks were to intimidate the Syrians and the Russians to include the Army of Conquest in the Astana Ceasefire.
In an effort to end the rivalry between the Geneva Process and the Astana Process the Geneva Process has adopted the Astana Ceasefire as one of its objectives. However it has not adopted the Astana Ceasefire Mechanism.
The latest round of meetings in the Geneva Process - Geneva V - began on March 23rd (23/3/17) and ended last Friday (31/3/17). As with the meetings in the Astana Process the Geneva Process meetings were also accompanied by an upsurge in violence by the Army of Conquest.
On March 22nd (22/3/17) there was a combined run-over and stabbing attack by a single attacker on the UK Parliament building in London. Of late there have been growing indications that the UK is no longer prepared to be as supportive of either ISIL or the Army of Conquest as it once was.
March 24th (24/3/17) six members of the Chechen National Guard were killed in an Islamist terror attack in the Chechnya region of Russia. Since the liberation of Aleppo City the Chechen National Guard have been acting as a military police service providing security in the city. Within the week of the attack the Chechen National Guard were rotating their deployment with some troops returning home and others replacing them.
On March 23rd (23/3/17) Russia's deeply troubled neighbour Shamali Province (nee; Ukraine) saw a massive fire engulf a large arms depot causing the town of Balakeya to be completely evacuated. Later that day former Russian MP and now dissident Denis Voronenkov was shot and killed in Kiev. Under former US President Barack Obama the western reflex to either of these incidents would be to blame Russia and impose more economic sanctions.
The Army of Conquest's main attempt to exert pressure on the Syrians and the Russians ahead of the Geneva Process meetings though was to launch a conventional military assault on the city of Hama on March 22nd (22/3/17). Hama City is around 120km (70 miles) south of Idlib City and around 180km (110 miles) north-east of Damascus. The purpose was to regain the territory the Army of Conquest had been forced to surrender.
Due to the nature of the Geneva Process talks it is quite difficult to assess how they are progressing. However from the way the talks are being conducted you can tell that they are extremely far away from any sort of agreement.
The Geneva Process has not yet got to the point where the different parties are meeting face-to-face. Instead the parties are meeting amongst themselves to discuss the key areas known as baskets. The UN's Special Envoy Steffen de Mistura then relays messages between the parties. With each party's position effectively being held in a silo everybody is working very hard to make sure that no information leaks out.
However this latest round of meetings in the Geneva Process most certainly did not result in the Army of Conquest being included in the Astana Ceasefire.
The meetings were really dominated by the fact that de Mistura's mandate from the UN to conduct the talks expired on the final day of the talks - March 31st (31/3/17). As a result he now needs to go back to the UN in order to have his mandate renewed before any more meetings in the Geneva Process can take place.
Steffen de Mistura's own press conference at the end of the talks were very much dominated by his need to seek further approval from the UN in order to proceed. He seemed unsure as to whether he would receive such approval seeming to shift all responsibility onto the Astana Process. The next round of meetings in the Astana Process are not scheduled to take place until mid-May.
Adding to their failure to be included in the Astana Ceasefire the most recent round of Geneva Process has also seen the failure of the Army of Conquest's Hama offensive.
When this offensive was launched on March 22nd (22/3/17) neither the Syrians nor the Russians made any effort to repel it. This allowed the Army of Conquest to seize roughly 5kmsq (3 milesq) area of territory near the town of Kernaz - roughly 40km (25 miles) north-west of Hama City.
However on March 24th (24/3/17) the Syrians and the Russians did launch a counter-offensive. Since then it has been defeat after defeat for the Army of Conquest. As of last Friday (31/3/17) they had lost over 70% of the territory they had gained in those first two days. There is no indication that the Syrian and Russian counter-offensive will stop once the Army of Conquest's recent gains have been completely reversed.
So today (3/4/17) we have seen yet another Sunni-Islamist terror attack against Russia. Although the situation is continuing to develop it appears that at least 10 civilians have been killed in explosions on a Russian underground rail (Metro) system.
What is interesting about these attacks is that they have not occurred in Russia's predominately Muslim Caucus' are to the south including the region of Chechnya. Nor have they occured in Moscow - the Russian capital. Instead they have taken place in Saint Petersburg which is roughly 800km (480 miles) north-west of Moscow and just 100km (60 miles) from Russia's border with Finland.
We are currently in the centenary year of Russia's 1917 Communist Revolution. In 1917 Russia's capital was not Moscow but St Petersburg which at the time was called Petrograd. As a result amid the commemorations of the 1917 Revolution St Petersburg is being very much talked about at the moment.
The Russian broadcaster RT has been marking the centenary through it's "1917 Live" project. This seems them attempting to report on the events of the 1917 Revolution as if it were happening now in this modern, social media age. If you a very interested in politics and either work in or consume a lot of news media this has actually been quite amusing with plenty of opportunity for self-mockery.
For example in real life yesterday (2/4/17) Lenin Moreno was elected President of Ecuador. This prompted the 1917 Live account of Vladimir Lenin to Tweet out today; "I had a dream last night I'd become President of a beautiful South American country." On Saturday (1/4/17) the same account Tweeted out a Gif of a cartoon cat proclaiming Lenin, Trotsky and Stalin to be the; "ComMEOWnists."
The 1917 Russian Revolution of course happened against the backdrop of the 1914-1918 First World War. Following the forced abdication of Tsar Nicholas II who was on holiday in Crimea at the time two new Russian governments sprang up. This led to lots of frantic diplomacy between Russia's allies during the First World War over which government they would support and whether the US would join the war on the side of the allies.
If you're not nerdy enough about the 1917 Russian Revolution and the First World War to get the jokes looking at the 1917 Live Tweets could cause you to get all paranoid thinking it was a way to have coded conversations about the current conflict in Syria, Iraq and Shamali Province.
The one bomb that has been confirmed at this stage exploded in a tunnel between Sennaya Ploschad station and Tekhnologichesky station. A second unexploded bomb has been discovered on a train at Vosstaniya station.
All of these stations are in what is known as St Petersburg's downtown district. During the 1917 Revolution all the action took place in the downtown district with mass protests repeatedly converging on the area until the Tsar was overthrown. That is why Palace Square some 500 metre/yards north of Sennaya station was known as; "Revolution Square" during the Communist era.
Mass protest seems to be once again in the air in Russia. On March 26th (26/3/17) anti-government protests organised by Alexei Navalny were held in dozens of cities across Russia from St Petersburg in the west to Vladivostok in far east. More protests were called for this weekend but largely failed to materialise.
Russian President Vladimir Putin was today meeting with his Belorussian counterpart Alexander Lukashenko in St Petersburg. Lukashenko has also had to face down mass protests against economic problems and a tax on the unemployed that began on February 19th (19/2/17) and are continuing.
So apart from the threat of more terror attacks today's events also seem intended to serve as a threat that a 2017 Russian Revolution will be arranged unless Russia drops its long standing opposition to both ISIL and the Army of Conquest. While continuing to scream; "Gay Rights For Gays!" CNN viewers already seem keen to help.
Obviously today's attacks have primarily been an attack against Russia. However in their timing they also seem to be taking another swipe at the UK.
Today British Prime Minister Theresa May is visiting Syria's neighbour to the south - Jordan.
The UK and Jordan have both long supported another armed faction within Syria - the Southern Front. Initially the Southern Front were intended to work alongside ISIL and the Army of Conquest. However amid indications that the UK is no longer prepared to be as supportive of ISIL and the Army of Conquest as it once was the Southern Front could emerge as a possible rival.
Following her visit to Jordan Prime Minister May will travel to Saudi Arabia.
Within the Geneva Process the Army of Conquest is represented by the High Negotiations Committee (HNC). This was hand picked by Saudi Arabia. However the HNC do not participate in the Astana Process. Therefore it is unlikely that Saudi Arabia would welcome the Geneva Process being dropped in favour of the Astana Process.
17:30 on 3/4/17 (UK date).
In Iraq ISIL now hold less than a quarter of the city of Mosul. This northern city has functioned as ISIL's de facto capital within Iraq since the summer of 2014 and following the liberations of Tikrit, Ramadi and Fallujah is the last major city the group control within Iraq.
Within Syria the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) are currently engaged in an operation to liberate the town of Tabqa from ISIL. This sits around 40km (25 miles) west of Raqqa - ISIL's de facto capital in Syria.
The SDF already control the vast 15,200kmsq (9,120 milesq) plus area to the north-east of Raqqa and the Euphrates River. They also control the main road running on the north side of the Euphrates linking Raqqa to Deir-ez-Zour. This leaves ISIL extremely isolated within Raqqa.
ISIL's main ally within Syria is the Army of Conquest/Jaish al-Fatah (JAF) coalition. This is led by The Base/Al Qaeda's Syrian affiliate The Support Front/Jabhat al-Nusra (ANF) and includes radical Islamist groups such as the Islamic Movement of the Freemen of the Levant/Harakat Ahrar ash-Sham al-Islamiyya (Ahrar al-Sham) and the Army of Islam/Jaish al-Islam.
The Army of Conquest are in almost as bad shape as ISIL.
In December 2016 the Army of Conquest were ousted from the city of Aleppo. The Syrians and the Russians are also in the process of liberating the areas between Aleppo City and the capital Damascus from the Army of Conquest. With the Army of Conquest recently being forced to surrender their positions around the city of Hama this realistically limits them to a small area around the city of Idlib.
There remains though a beacon of hope shining out for both ISIL and the Army of Conquest. This is the United Nations (UN) Geneva Process on Syria.
The purpose of the UN's Geneva Process has never been to defeat groups like ISIL or the Army of Conquest. Nor has it been to bring peace to Syria. Instead its purpose is to empower groups like ISIL and the Army of Conquest to overthrow the Syrian government and establish a Sunni Islamist terror state. This is something that is wholly illegal under international law and completely beyond the remit of the UN.
Since December 2016 the UN's Geneva Process has been rivalled by the Russian-led Astana Process on Syria. This has seen the creation of the Astana Ceasefire and the Astana Ceasefire Mechanism. The purpose of the Astana Ceasefire Mechanism is to provide a structure to determine whether the Astana Ceasefire applies to the Army of Conquest.
The Army of Conquest very much need to be included in the Astana Ceasefire in order to survive.
So the most recent round of meetings in the Astana Process held on March 15th (15/3/17) and March 16th (16/3/17) were accompanied by a significant upsurge in violence by the Army of Conquest. For example the large suicide bombings on Damascus on March 11th (11/3/17) and March 15th (15/3/17). The purpose of these attacks were to intimidate the Syrians and the Russians to include the Army of Conquest in the Astana Ceasefire.
In an effort to end the rivalry between the Geneva Process and the Astana Process the Geneva Process has adopted the Astana Ceasefire as one of its objectives. However it has not adopted the Astana Ceasefire Mechanism.
The latest round of meetings in the Geneva Process - Geneva V - began on March 23rd (23/3/17) and ended last Friday (31/3/17). As with the meetings in the Astana Process the Geneva Process meetings were also accompanied by an upsurge in violence by the Army of Conquest.
On March 22nd (22/3/17) there was a combined run-over and stabbing attack by a single attacker on the UK Parliament building in London. Of late there have been growing indications that the UK is no longer prepared to be as supportive of either ISIL or the Army of Conquest as it once was.
March 24th (24/3/17) six members of the Chechen National Guard were killed in an Islamist terror attack in the Chechnya region of Russia. Since the liberation of Aleppo City the Chechen National Guard have been acting as a military police service providing security in the city. Within the week of the attack the Chechen National Guard were rotating their deployment with some troops returning home and others replacing them.
On March 23rd (23/3/17) Russia's deeply troubled neighbour Shamali Province (nee; Ukraine) saw a massive fire engulf a large arms depot causing the town of Balakeya to be completely evacuated. Later that day former Russian MP and now dissident Denis Voronenkov was shot and killed in Kiev. Under former US President Barack Obama the western reflex to either of these incidents would be to blame Russia and impose more economic sanctions.
The Army of Conquest's main attempt to exert pressure on the Syrians and the Russians ahead of the Geneva Process meetings though was to launch a conventional military assault on the city of Hama on March 22nd (22/3/17). Hama City is around 120km (70 miles) south of Idlib City and around 180km (110 miles) north-east of Damascus. The purpose was to regain the territory the Army of Conquest had been forced to surrender.
Due to the nature of the Geneva Process talks it is quite difficult to assess how they are progressing. However from the way the talks are being conducted you can tell that they are extremely far away from any sort of agreement.
The Geneva Process has not yet got to the point where the different parties are meeting face-to-face. Instead the parties are meeting amongst themselves to discuss the key areas known as baskets. The UN's Special Envoy Steffen de Mistura then relays messages between the parties. With each party's position effectively being held in a silo everybody is working very hard to make sure that no information leaks out.
However this latest round of meetings in the Geneva Process most certainly did not result in the Army of Conquest being included in the Astana Ceasefire.
The meetings were really dominated by the fact that de Mistura's mandate from the UN to conduct the talks expired on the final day of the talks - March 31st (31/3/17). As a result he now needs to go back to the UN in order to have his mandate renewed before any more meetings in the Geneva Process can take place.
Steffen de Mistura's own press conference at the end of the talks were very much dominated by his need to seek further approval from the UN in order to proceed. He seemed unsure as to whether he would receive such approval seeming to shift all responsibility onto the Astana Process. The next round of meetings in the Astana Process are not scheduled to take place until mid-May.
Adding to their failure to be included in the Astana Ceasefire the most recent round of Geneva Process has also seen the failure of the Army of Conquest's Hama offensive.
When this offensive was launched on March 22nd (22/3/17) neither the Syrians nor the Russians made any effort to repel it. This allowed the Army of Conquest to seize roughly 5kmsq (3 milesq) area of territory near the town of Kernaz - roughly 40km (25 miles) north-west of Hama City.
However on March 24th (24/3/17) the Syrians and the Russians did launch a counter-offensive. Since then it has been defeat after defeat for the Army of Conquest. As of last Friday (31/3/17) they had lost over 70% of the territory they had gained in those first two days. There is no indication that the Syrian and Russian counter-offensive will stop once the Army of Conquest's recent gains have been completely reversed.
So today (3/4/17) we have seen yet another Sunni-Islamist terror attack against Russia. Although the situation is continuing to develop it appears that at least 10 civilians have been killed in explosions on a Russian underground rail (Metro) system.
What is interesting about these attacks is that they have not occurred in Russia's predominately Muslim Caucus' are to the south including the region of Chechnya. Nor have they occured in Moscow - the Russian capital. Instead they have taken place in Saint Petersburg which is roughly 800km (480 miles) north-west of Moscow and just 100km (60 miles) from Russia's border with Finland.
We are currently in the centenary year of Russia's 1917 Communist Revolution. In 1917 Russia's capital was not Moscow but St Petersburg which at the time was called Petrograd. As a result amid the commemorations of the 1917 Revolution St Petersburg is being very much talked about at the moment.
The Russian broadcaster RT has been marking the centenary through it's "1917 Live" project. This seems them attempting to report on the events of the 1917 Revolution as if it were happening now in this modern, social media age. If you a very interested in politics and either work in or consume a lot of news media this has actually been quite amusing with plenty of opportunity for self-mockery.
For example in real life yesterday (2/4/17) Lenin Moreno was elected President of Ecuador. This prompted the 1917 Live account of Vladimir Lenin to Tweet out today; "I had a dream last night I'd become President of a beautiful South American country." On Saturday (1/4/17) the same account Tweeted out a Gif of a cartoon cat proclaiming Lenin, Trotsky and Stalin to be the; "ComMEOWnists."
The 1917 Russian Revolution of course happened against the backdrop of the 1914-1918 First World War. Following the forced abdication of Tsar Nicholas II who was on holiday in Crimea at the time two new Russian governments sprang up. This led to lots of frantic diplomacy between Russia's allies during the First World War over which government they would support and whether the US would join the war on the side of the allies.
If you're not nerdy enough about the 1917 Russian Revolution and the First World War to get the jokes looking at the 1917 Live Tweets could cause you to get all paranoid thinking it was a way to have coded conversations about the current conflict in Syria, Iraq and Shamali Province.
The one bomb that has been confirmed at this stage exploded in a tunnel between Sennaya Ploschad station and Tekhnologichesky station. A second unexploded bomb has been discovered on a train at Vosstaniya station.
All of these stations are in what is known as St Petersburg's downtown district. During the 1917 Revolution all the action took place in the downtown district with mass protests repeatedly converging on the area until the Tsar was overthrown. That is why Palace Square some 500 metre/yards north of Sennaya station was known as; "Revolution Square" during the Communist era.
Mass protest seems to be once again in the air in Russia. On March 26th (26/3/17) anti-government protests organised by Alexei Navalny were held in dozens of cities across Russia from St Petersburg in the west to Vladivostok in far east. More protests were called for this weekend but largely failed to materialise.
Russian President Vladimir Putin was today meeting with his Belorussian counterpart Alexander Lukashenko in St Petersburg. Lukashenko has also had to face down mass protests against economic problems and a tax on the unemployed that began on February 19th (19/2/17) and are continuing.
So apart from the threat of more terror attacks today's events also seem intended to serve as a threat that a 2017 Russian Revolution will be arranged unless Russia drops its long standing opposition to both ISIL and the Army of Conquest. While continuing to scream; "Gay Rights For Gays!" CNN viewers already seem keen to help.
Obviously today's attacks have primarily been an attack against Russia. However in their timing they also seem to be taking another swipe at the UK.
Today British Prime Minister Theresa May is visiting Syria's neighbour to the south - Jordan.
The UK and Jordan have both long supported another armed faction within Syria - the Southern Front. Initially the Southern Front were intended to work alongside ISIL and the Army of Conquest. However amid indications that the UK is no longer prepared to be as supportive of ISIL and the Army of Conquest as it once was the Southern Front could emerge as a possible rival.
Following her visit to Jordan Prime Minister May will travel to Saudi Arabia.
Within the Geneva Process the Army of Conquest is represented by the High Negotiations Committee (HNC). This was hand picked by Saudi Arabia. However the HNC do not participate in the Astana Process. Therefore it is unlikely that Saudi Arabia would welcome the Geneva Process being dropped in favour of the Astana Process.
17:30 on 3/4/17 (UK date).
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