On October 17th 2016 (17/10/16) an operation was launched to liberate the northern Iraqi city of Mosul. Since the summer of 2014 Mosul has functioned as the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant's (ISIL) de facto capital in Iraq.
The operation was intended as a combined one with the Iraqi Security Forces (ISF), the Iraqi Kurdish Peshmerga and the Iraqi Popular Mobilisation Forces (PMF) all working together. It is backed by the US-led coalition - Combined Joint Task Force: Operation Inherent Resolve (CJTFOIR).
On January 25th 2017 (25/1/17) the operation had succeeded in liberating the entire eastern side of Mosul. On February 19th (19/2/17) the next phase of the operation was launched to liberate the western side of the city.
On February 23rd (23/2/17) the ISF who are taking the lead role had entered the western side of Mosul itself via the Ghazlani military base and Mosul International Airport which sit side-by-side at the southern most tip of western Mosul.
By March 1st (1/3/17) the ISF had succeeded in liberating everything south of the Fourth Bridge road. This included the Fourth Bridge itself and the four neighbourhoods between the airport/Ghazlani complex and the road.
Entering the city from the south-west a separate column of the ISF had also succeeded in liberating the Tal al-Rayyan and Hay al-Mamum neighbourhoods. These sit directly to the north-west of the Ghazlani base.
By Tuesday (6/3/17) the ISF had advanced north on the southern axis across the Fourth Bridge road and succeeded in liberating the al-Dindan and al-Dawasa neighbourhoods.
This included liberating the Hurriyah Bridge and parts of the Hurriyah Bridge road. The ISF also succeeded in liberating the government complex that sits between the al-Dawasa neighbourhood and the Old City neighbourhood. In the process the ISF appear to have broken through one of ISIL's key defensive lines within the city.
On the south-west axis the ISF also succeeded in liberating the Tal al-Rumman neighbourhood on Tuesday (6/3/17). This placed the Hay al-Mansur neighbourhood on the other side of the Mosul to Baghdad road under siege on three sides.
Today on the southern axis the ISF have advanced into the al-Akidat neighbourhood. This sits directly west of the al-Dindan neighbourhood north of the Fourth Bridge road and the al-Jawsaq neighbourhood.
On the south-western axis the ISF have succeeded in liberating the al-Moalimeen neighbourhood. This sits directly to the north of the Tal al-Rumman neighbourhood.
Roughly 10km (6 miles) to the north-west of Mosul the ISF and the PMF have continued their joint operation to liberate the town of Badush. Yesterday (8/3/17) they succeeded in liberating Badush prison which was the seen of a horrific ISIL massacre in the summer of 2014. Today they have liberated Badush power station.
Directly to the west of the city the PMF succeeded in liberating the village of al-Dinarj. This sits roughly 7km (4 miles) west of Mosul. Along with the gains at Badush this gives the ISF the option of opening a third and fourth axis' to increase the pressure on ISIL within Mosul's western side.
As I've said throughout while it will be an absolutely huge step forward the liberation of Mosul will not mean the end of ISIL in Iraq. They still posses other holdouts within the country. Chief amongst these is the Hawija Triangle which sits around 170km (100 miles) south-west of Mosul.
Sadly late last night ISIL proved my point. They conducted a suicide bomb attack against a wedding in the village of Hajjaj which killed at least 21. Hajjaj sits on the western side of the Hawija Triangle some 30km (18 miles) south of Baiji and 40km (25 miles) north of Tikrit.
Even if the Iraqi government and the Iraqi Kurdish Regional Government (KRG) do overcome their differences to liberate the Hawija Triangle realistically ISIL will remain a threat to Iraq and the wider world until they are totally defeated in Iraq and Syria.
Key to defeating ISIL in Syria is an area that has been designated; "Garvaghy Road." This stretches for roughly 100km (60 miles) of Syria's border with Turkey between the towns of Azaz/Kilis in the west and the Euphrates River in the east.
On August 24th 2016 (24/8/16) Turkish President/Prime Minister/Emperor Recep Tayyip Erdogan sent regular Turkish forces to invade and illegally occupy Garvaghy Road. This was done specifically to keep open supply lines between Turkey and ISIL's de facto capital in Syria - Raqqa - some 200km (120 miles) to the south-east.
To the east of the Euphrates River you have a vast 15,200 kmsq (9,120 milesq) area under the control of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF/QSD). This area has been designated; "Shangri-La."
Since the August 24th (24/8/16) invasion Erdogan has been desperate for his forces to advance east to capture Shangri-La and defeat the SDF who have been the most effective anti-ISIL force within Syria.
On March 1st 2017 (1/3/17) Erdogan pushed ahead with this plan attacking the SDF at the town of Manbij on the western bank of the Euphrates. This prompted several days of crisis. Particularly for the US Special Operations Forces (SOF's) embedded with the SDF in Manbij.
Under pressure from those US SOF's since November 2016 the SDF have been conducting an operation of their own within Shangri-La. Designated; "Wrath of Euphrates" this has been focused on expanding the size of Shangri-La by slowly encircling and then eventually storming Raqqa.
The first phase of this operation launched on November 6th 2016 (6/11/16) focused on the SDF advancing south from the village of Ayn Issa which sits around 70km (40 miles) north of Raqqa. This phase was completed on November 25th (25/11/16).
The second phase of the operation launched on December 10th 2016 (10/12/16) focused on the SDF advancing south along the eastern bank of the Euphrates from the town of Sarrin. This was completed on January 5th 2017 (5/1/17) with the SDF having advanced to Lake Assad some 45km (27 miles) west of Raqqa.
The third phase of the operation launched on February 4th 2017 (4/2/17) focused on the SDF advancing to the east of Raqqa to cut it off from the town of Deir-ez-Zour around 150km (90 miles) to the south-east.
This was completed on Monday March 6th (6/3/17) with the SDF seizing control of the Raqqa to Deir-ez-Zour road some 20km (12 miles) from Raqqa. However the route between Raqqa and Deir-ez-Zour remains open due to the M4 Motorway which runs south of the Euphrates.
At around 18:35 on 9/3/17 (UK date) I'll have to pick this up after dinner.
Edited at around 19:40 on 9/3/17 (UK date) to add;
Today the US has confirmed that it has deployed around 250 Marines from the 4th Division of the US Marine Corp to Syria to participate in the Wrath of Euphrates operation.
Unlike the Green Berets and Navy SEAL's who have long been embedded with the SDF these US Marines are not Special Operators. Instead they are a conventional ground unit. Albeit a very capable one. Their mission is to provide artillery support to the SDF, presumably as they mount an assault on Raqqa.
This deployment seems primarily to send a message. It sends the message to Erdogan that his aggression within Garvaghy Road will not prompt the US to withdraw the forces it has embedded with the SDF. Domestically it reminds states such as Washington, Minnesota and Hawaii that the current executive orders are a matter of national security, not a party political plaything.
However if these US Marines plan on actually doing anything within Syria that could severely jeopardise the fight against ISIL.
The whole Wrath of Euphrates operation was drawn up by former US President Obama as a panicked response to his plan to liberate Mosul.
The only consideration Obama gave to the Mosul operation was secure a big flag waving victory to propel his designated successor Hillary Clinton to victory in the November 8th 2016 (8/11/16) US Presidential election. The key part of the plan was to leave the west of Mosul completely undefended to allow ISIL fighters to withdraw without much of a fight and return to Raqqa.
Then at a NATO meeting in October 2016 it was pointed out to Obama that if ISIL fighters could flee to Raqqa then they could also travel via Garvaghy Road to Turkey and from there to world. So in response Obama suddenly came up with this plan for the SDF to liberate Raqqa.
As I've said before although they are a highly capable force the SDF are a small guerrilla-style force totally unequipped to liberate a city the size of Raqqa. This is so obvious that it seems Obama's main hope was that the SDF would be wiped out in the effort. This would save his designated successor President Hillary Clinton from having to engage in tedious negotiations with Erdogan about what to do about the SDF.
Hillary Clinton of course lost the 2016 Presidential Election. This prompted Obama to even more aggressively pursue his strategy to destroy the SDF. The idea being to remove the most effective anti-ISIL force to doom incoming US President Trump to failure.
The deployment of the 4th Marines is part of Obama's post-defeat plan for failure.
The other two elements of Obama's strategy to defeat the SDF were to create a rival power structure within the SDF - the Syrian Arab Council (SAC) - and to establish a rival Syrian Kurdish force - the Roj Peshmerga. Just in the past week we have seen the effect Obama's strategy has had in undermining in the SDF with the Roj Peshmerga launching an attack on the SDF affiliated Shingal Protection Units (YBS) around Shingal/Sinjar in Iraq.
As such before any SDF operation to liberate Raqqa can take place a number of things need to happen.
The first of these is undoing all the work that Obama has done to undermine the SDF in the past five months. This means disbanding both the SAC and the Roj Peshmerga. I have absolutely no objection to members of those two groups then immediately being reabsorbed into the SDF but they must do so as part of the existing command structure not in rival to it.
Then the US needs to work with the SDF to make sure that they have the equipment and training require to mount an operation of the scale of liberating Raqqa. This will likely mean bringing in local forces from outside of Syria such as the ISF.
In the meantime there is the issue of the Tabqa Dam which is by far a much more immediate operational priority than Raqqa.
Damming the Euphrates River to create Lake Assad the Tabqa Dam sits around 55km (30 miles) west of Raqqa. It represents the main crossing point over the Euphrates connecting Raqqa with Garvaghy Road. Due to the second phase of the Wrath of Euphrates operation the SDF are currently within 8km (5 miles) of the dam.
This past winter into spring has seen unusually heavy snow and then rain across the region. Added to that ISIL are currently only using three of the Tabqa Dam's eight turbines reducing the flow of water down stream.
As a result water levels in Lake Assad have risen dramatically at a rate of around 3 metres/yards per week. This has created grave concern that the Euphrates could burst its banks catastrophically flooding SDF controlled areas such as Sarrin.
As such rather than rushing into a losing battle for Raqqa it would make a lot more sense for the SDF to liberate the Tabqa Dam in order to protect the people and areas they have already liberated.
20:25 on 9/3/16 (UK date).
Thursday, 9 March 2017
Wednesday, 8 March 2017
The UK Budget 2017: Spring Edition.
Under the government of Prime Minister Tony Blair the UK got itself into rather a strange habit. The government would lay out its budget in the spring. Then in the autumn they would present a second sort of mini-budget.
This was done entirely to give Chancellor (Chief Finance Minister) and Prime Minister Blair's great rival Gordon Brown more screen time. In 2010 what by then was Gordon Brown's Labour government was replaced by successive governments led by Prime Minister David Cameron. He had the same problem with his Chancellor George Osborne also wanting more time in the spotlight. So the practice continued.
In the summer of 2016 Prime Minister Cameron quit leading to George Osborne effectively being fired by his own Conservative Party. In the autumn of 2016 the new Chancellor Phillip Hammond announced that this pratice would finally stop. The UK would simply lay out one budget. In the autumn. However this change has meant that this year the UK government will lay out two budgets. One in the spring and one in the autumn.
The spring budget was announced today. The big macroeconomic headline was that the pre-Brexit predictions of the UK economy entering into recession were false.
The UK is expected to grow by 2% during 2017. While the Brexit negotiations are taking place that growth is expected to dip slightly to 1.6% in 2018, 1.7% in 2019 and 1.9% in 2020. However once the uncertainty of those negotiations is over and the economy is effectively taken off pause mode growth is expected to return to 2% in 2021.
In the Parliament of 2010 to 2015 Chancellor Osborne's big thing was austerity - eliminating the national debt by 2020. Although he never admitted it publicly reality forced Osborne to abandon this policy in around 2013. In the autumn 2016 budget Chancellor Hammond formally scrapped it. However in this budget he announced he intends to reduce the national debt from 86.6% this year to 79.8% by 2021.
This objective made Chancellor Hammond's plans for Corporation Tax hard to explain. This year it will be cut from 20% to 19% and to 17% by 2020. Hammond boasted that this would give the UK the lowest rate of corporation tax in the G20. However I'm not sure that's a boast.
To make up the shortfall between cutting corporation tax and cutting the national debt Chancellor Hammond seems to have decided to whack the little guy.
Although technically not part of this budget business rates across the UK are being recalculated for the first time in, I think, seven years.
This tax rate is calculated on the value of the property from where the business operates. This building is often owned by the type of large corporation that have just seen their tax rate cut. However the business rate is paid by the business owner who often rents the property. Some business owners have seen their tax bill increase by some 400%.
During the budget Chancellor Hammond announced some small assistance for the worst hit business and promised to review the matter in the autumn budget. However the amount of assistance offered is tiny compared to the rate of the tax increase.
Chancellor Hammond also targeted the rate of National Insurance (payroll tax) paid by the self-employed and the amount of tax free dividends a small business owner can withdraw each year.
This has been billed as a way to tackle tax avoidance. Essentially what a person - often a TV journalist - can do is set up a small business and class themselves as self-employed by that business. However the business will only have the one customer - the person's actual employer.
This set up allows the person to pay £2000 in National Insurance rather than £6000. They can also pay themselves just below the threshold for the top rate of income tax but then pay themselves dividends the first £5000 of which were tax free with subsequent dividends being taxed at like 10% rather than like 40%.
Chancellor Hammond has removed the Class 2 National Insurance bracket for self-employed workers entirely forcing them into Class 4. The tax rate in that Class 4 category bracket has been raised from 9% to 10%. The amount of tax free dividends has been reduced from £5000 to £2000.
This seems to be a significant slap in the face to the government of Prime Minister Cameron and Chancellor Osborne. Along with Work & Pensions Secretary Ian Duncan Smith they spent years running this nasty little scam where they tricked the unemployed into reclassifying themselves as self-employed in the so-called "Gig Economy" with companies like Deliveroo or Uber.
These newly self-employed people don't earn anything like a living wage and often earn less than they'd be paid in unemployment benefits. However it gets them off the unemployment statistics and off the welfare bill. That's all Osborne and Duncan Smith cared about.
Due to their extremely low earnings it is highly unlikely that these people will be able to pay 10% National Insurance. Forcing them to reclassify themselves back as unemployed. Thus totally reversing Osborne and Duncan Smith's nasty little scam.
In announcing these changes Chancellor Hammond pretty much pointed at George Osborne on the back benches and laughed. While Ian Duncan Smith seethed quietly on the sidelines.
Chancellor Hammond also introduced a new class of technical qualifications called; "T-levels." So overall I would say that his plan for a post-Brexit British economy is a low corporate tax economy full of highly qualified but unemployed people. High unemployment drives down wages.
However it must be said that even by the standards of a budget this was hardly a thriller.
20:30 on 8/3/17 (UK date).
This was done entirely to give Chancellor (Chief Finance Minister) and Prime Minister Blair's great rival Gordon Brown more screen time. In 2010 what by then was Gordon Brown's Labour government was replaced by successive governments led by Prime Minister David Cameron. He had the same problem with his Chancellor George Osborne also wanting more time in the spotlight. So the practice continued.
In the summer of 2016 Prime Minister Cameron quit leading to George Osborne effectively being fired by his own Conservative Party. In the autumn of 2016 the new Chancellor Phillip Hammond announced that this pratice would finally stop. The UK would simply lay out one budget. In the autumn. However this change has meant that this year the UK government will lay out two budgets. One in the spring and one in the autumn.
The spring budget was announced today. The big macroeconomic headline was that the pre-Brexit predictions of the UK economy entering into recession were false.
The UK is expected to grow by 2% during 2017. While the Brexit negotiations are taking place that growth is expected to dip slightly to 1.6% in 2018, 1.7% in 2019 and 1.9% in 2020. However once the uncertainty of those negotiations is over and the economy is effectively taken off pause mode growth is expected to return to 2% in 2021.
In the Parliament of 2010 to 2015 Chancellor Osborne's big thing was austerity - eliminating the national debt by 2020. Although he never admitted it publicly reality forced Osborne to abandon this policy in around 2013. In the autumn 2016 budget Chancellor Hammond formally scrapped it. However in this budget he announced he intends to reduce the national debt from 86.6% this year to 79.8% by 2021.
This objective made Chancellor Hammond's plans for Corporation Tax hard to explain. This year it will be cut from 20% to 19% and to 17% by 2020. Hammond boasted that this would give the UK the lowest rate of corporation tax in the G20. However I'm not sure that's a boast.
To make up the shortfall between cutting corporation tax and cutting the national debt Chancellor Hammond seems to have decided to whack the little guy.
Although technically not part of this budget business rates across the UK are being recalculated for the first time in, I think, seven years.
This tax rate is calculated on the value of the property from where the business operates. This building is often owned by the type of large corporation that have just seen their tax rate cut. However the business rate is paid by the business owner who often rents the property. Some business owners have seen their tax bill increase by some 400%.
During the budget Chancellor Hammond announced some small assistance for the worst hit business and promised to review the matter in the autumn budget. However the amount of assistance offered is tiny compared to the rate of the tax increase.
Chancellor Hammond also targeted the rate of National Insurance (payroll tax) paid by the self-employed and the amount of tax free dividends a small business owner can withdraw each year.
This has been billed as a way to tackle tax avoidance. Essentially what a person - often a TV journalist - can do is set up a small business and class themselves as self-employed by that business. However the business will only have the one customer - the person's actual employer.
This set up allows the person to pay £2000 in National Insurance rather than £6000. They can also pay themselves just below the threshold for the top rate of income tax but then pay themselves dividends the first £5000 of which were tax free with subsequent dividends being taxed at like 10% rather than like 40%.
Chancellor Hammond has removed the Class 2 National Insurance bracket for self-employed workers entirely forcing them into Class 4. The tax rate in that Class 4 category bracket has been raised from 9% to 10%. The amount of tax free dividends has been reduced from £5000 to £2000.
This seems to be a significant slap in the face to the government of Prime Minister Cameron and Chancellor Osborne. Along with Work & Pensions Secretary Ian Duncan Smith they spent years running this nasty little scam where they tricked the unemployed into reclassifying themselves as self-employed in the so-called "Gig Economy" with companies like Deliveroo or Uber.
These newly self-employed people don't earn anything like a living wage and often earn less than they'd be paid in unemployment benefits. However it gets them off the unemployment statistics and off the welfare bill. That's all Osborne and Duncan Smith cared about.
Due to their extremely low earnings it is highly unlikely that these people will be able to pay 10% National Insurance. Forcing them to reclassify themselves back as unemployed. Thus totally reversing Osborne and Duncan Smith's nasty little scam.
In announcing these changes Chancellor Hammond pretty much pointed at George Osborne on the back benches and laughed. While Ian Duncan Smith seethed quietly on the sidelines.
Chancellor Hammond also introduced a new class of technical qualifications called; "T-levels." So overall I would say that his plan for a post-Brexit British economy is a low corporate tax economy full of highly qualified but unemployed people. High unemployment drives down wages.
However it must be said that even by the standards of a budget this was hardly a thriller.
20:30 on 8/3/17 (UK date).
Tuesday, 7 March 2017
Operation Featherweight: Month 32, Week 3, Day 2.
Writing in an Italian newspaper on Sunday (5/3/17) the President of Iraq's Kurdish Region Masoud Barzani declared that the liberation of the Iraqi city of Mosul from the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) would be a momentous event.
Not only would it cause Iraq's Kurdish Region to break away from Iraq it would also be the trigger for Syria's Kurdish regions to break away from Syria and the two regions would combine to form the independent nation of Kurdistan. Syria itself would break apart and in its place would rise a Greater Israel and a Greater Jordan to stand alongside this Greater Kurdistan.
It seems we won't have long until we find out whether President Barzani's prediction is accurate. An operation is already well under way to liberate Mosul.
Intended as a combined operation between the Iraqi Security Forces (ISF), the Iraqi Kurdish Peshmerga, the Popular Mobilisation Forces (PMF) and supported by the US-led coalition - Combined Joint Task Force: Operation Inherent Resolve (CJTFOIR) this operation began on October 17th 2016 (17/10/16). By January 25th 2017 (25/1/17) it had succeeded in liberating all of the eastern side of Mosul.
On February 19th (19/2/17) the next phase of the operation to liberate the western side of Mosul was launched. On February 23rd (23/2/17) the ISF entered the western side of the city itself.
By last Wednesday (1/3/17) the ISF had succeeded in liberating everything south of the Fourth Bridge road to the al-Sawas roundabout. This included the Fourth Bridge itself along with Mosul International Airport and the Ghazlani military base and the four neighbourhoods between the Airport/Ghazlani base and the road. Directly to the north-west of the Ghazlani base the ISF had also succeeded in liberating the Tal al-Rayyan and Hay al-Mamum neighbourhoods.
Last Wednesday (1/3/17) the ISF and the PMF also conducted an operation to liberate the town of Badush including Badush prison which was being used by ISIL. Badush sits around 10km (6 miles) north-west of Mosul along the M1 Motorway running from Mosul to the town of Tal Afar and then into Syria.
The following day (2/3/17) the entire area around Mosul was hit by extremely bad weather. I heard some British soldiers stationed there complaining that they wanted to be sent back to Wales where it was warm and dry. Due to this bad weather all operations were put on hold temporarily.
By Sunday (5/3/17) the weather had cleared and operations resumed.
The ISF crossed the Fourth Bridge road into the northern half of the al-Dindan neighbourhood which the road cuts through. The ISF also entered the al-Dawasa neighbour which sits directly east of the northern half of the al-Dindan neighbourhood and directly north of the al-Jawsaq neighbourhood.
To the south-west the ISF launched an operation to liberate the Tal al-Rumman neighbourhood. This sits directly adjacent to the Hay al-Mamum neighbourhood and both are separated from the Hay al-Mansur neighbourhood by the Mosul - Baghdad road.
By Monday (6/3/17) the ISF had liberated both the al-Dindan and al-Dawasa neighbourhoods. This included securing the western bridgehead of the Hurriyah Bridge. With the eastern bridgehead of the Hurriyah Bridge being secured back in January this now gives the ISF full control of the two most southern bridges linking east and west Mosul.
Overnight the ISF launched a rarely used night operation. This saw them storm the complex of government buildings that sit between the al-Dawasa neighbourhood and Mosul's Old City neighbourhood.
Seeming to catch ISIL completely by surprise within just 8 hours the ISF had succeeded in liberating these government buildings including the Governor's residence, the former Turkish Embassy, the central bank building that ISIL and been using as a court and Mosul's museum where ISIL filmed themselves destroying ancient artifacts back in February 2015.
In carrying out this nighttime raid and liberating these buildings the ISF appear to have broken through one of ISIL's inner defensive lines within western Mosul. Although I don't yet want to get into the reasons why this could well be an extremely significant development in the battle for the city.
Also today the ISF have succeeded in liberating the Tal al-Rumman neighbourhood. This places the Hay al-Mansur neighbhourhood effectively under siege on three sides.
To the north-west of the city the ISF and the PMF have resumed their operation to liberate the town of Badush. The latest reports are that they have succeeded in opening up three access routes into the town itself.
Apart from the Mosul operation ISIL are also coming under increased pressure in Syria.
Yesterday (6/3/17) the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF/QSD) completed the third and hopefully final phase of their operation in the area north of Raqqa - ISIL's de facto capital in Syria. The SDF have secured control of the Raqqa to Deir-ez-Zour road that runs north of the Euphrates River.
On March 1st (1/3/17) the Syrian city of Palmyra was liberated by Russian backed Syrian forces. This marked the completion of a week long operation.
Sadly due to the constraints of time I will have to cover those two developments in more detail at a later date.
18:30 on 7/3/17 (UK date).
Not only would it cause Iraq's Kurdish Region to break away from Iraq it would also be the trigger for Syria's Kurdish regions to break away from Syria and the two regions would combine to form the independent nation of Kurdistan. Syria itself would break apart and in its place would rise a Greater Israel and a Greater Jordan to stand alongside this Greater Kurdistan.
It seems we won't have long until we find out whether President Barzani's prediction is accurate. An operation is already well under way to liberate Mosul.
Intended as a combined operation between the Iraqi Security Forces (ISF), the Iraqi Kurdish Peshmerga, the Popular Mobilisation Forces (PMF) and supported by the US-led coalition - Combined Joint Task Force: Operation Inherent Resolve (CJTFOIR) this operation began on October 17th 2016 (17/10/16). By January 25th 2017 (25/1/17) it had succeeded in liberating all of the eastern side of Mosul.
On February 19th (19/2/17) the next phase of the operation to liberate the western side of Mosul was launched. On February 23rd (23/2/17) the ISF entered the western side of the city itself.
By last Wednesday (1/3/17) the ISF had succeeded in liberating everything south of the Fourth Bridge road to the al-Sawas roundabout. This included the Fourth Bridge itself along with Mosul International Airport and the Ghazlani military base and the four neighbourhoods between the Airport/Ghazlani base and the road. Directly to the north-west of the Ghazlani base the ISF had also succeeded in liberating the Tal al-Rayyan and Hay al-Mamum neighbourhoods.
Last Wednesday (1/3/17) the ISF and the PMF also conducted an operation to liberate the town of Badush including Badush prison which was being used by ISIL. Badush sits around 10km (6 miles) north-west of Mosul along the M1 Motorway running from Mosul to the town of Tal Afar and then into Syria.
The following day (2/3/17) the entire area around Mosul was hit by extremely bad weather. I heard some British soldiers stationed there complaining that they wanted to be sent back to Wales where it was warm and dry. Due to this bad weather all operations were put on hold temporarily.
By Sunday (5/3/17) the weather had cleared and operations resumed.
The ISF crossed the Fourth Bridge road into the northern half of the al-Dindan neighbourhood which the road cuts through. The ISF also entered the al-Dawasa neighbour which sits directly east of the northern half of the al-Dindan neighbourhood and directly north of the al-Jawsaq neighbourhood.
To the south-west the ISF launched an operation to liberate the Tal al-Rumman neighbourhood. This sits directly adjacent to the Hay al-Mamum neighbourhood and both are separated from the Hay al-Mansur neighbourhood by the Mosul - Baghdad road.
By Monday (6/3/17) the ISF had liberated both the al-Dindan and al-Dawasa neighbourhoods. This included securing the western bridgehead of the Hurriyah Bridge. With the eastern bridgehead of the Hurriyah Bridge being secured back in January this now gives the ISF full control of the two most southern bridges linking east and west Mosul.
Overnight the ISF launched a rarely used night operation. This saw them storm the complex of government buildings that sit between the al-Dawasa neighbourhood and Mosul's Old City neighbourhood.
Seeming to catch ISIL completely by surprise within just 8 hours the ISF had succeeded in liberating these government buildings including the Governor's residence, the former Turkish Embassy, the central bank building that ISIL and been using as a court and Mosul's museum where ISIL filmed themselves destroying ancient artifacts back in February 2015.
In carrying out this nighttime raid and liberating these buildings the ISF appear to have broken through one of ISIL's inner defensive lines within western Mosul. Although I don't yet want to get into the reasons why this could well be an extremely significant development in the battle for the city.
Also today the ISF have succeeded in liberating the Tal al-Rumman neighbourhood. This places the Hay al-Mansur neighbhourhood effectively under siege on three sides.
To the north-west of the city the ISF and the PMF have resumed their operation to liberate the town of Badush. The latest reports are that they have succeeded in opening up three access routes into the town itself.
Apart from the Mosul operation ISIL are also coming under increased pressure in Syria.
Yesterday (6/3/17) the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF/QSD) completed the third and hopefully final phase of their operation in the area north of Raqqa - ISIL's de facto capital in Syria. The SDF have secured control of the Raqqa to Deir-ez-Zour road that runs north of the Euphrates River.
On March 1st (1/3/17) the Syrian city of Palmyra was liberated by Russian backed Syrian forces. This marked the completion of a week long operation.
Sadly due to the constraints of time I will have to cover those two developments in more detail at a later date.
18:30 on 7/3/17 (UK date).
Monday, 6 March 2017
Operation Featherweight: Month 32, Week 3, Day 1.
Last Friday - March 3rd (3/3/17) - the latest meeting in the United Nations (UN) sponsored Geneva Process on Syria drew to a close in Geneva, Switzerland.
Being somewhat fluent in UN speak I prefer to describe this as a process rather than talks. That's because the talks don't ever really stop and then start up again. Instead they're almost continuous with only the intensity changing.
For example there were low intensity talks to get the parties - the Syrians and the High Negotiation Committee (HNC) - to the talks. With the parties arriving in Geneva on February 23rd (23/2/17) these then became high intensity talks the following day - Friday February 24th (24/2/17). They then reverted to being low intensity talks last Friday (3/3/17) as the parties discuss attending another meeting later this month.
However you refer to them the Geneva Process serves no purpose in defeating the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) and associated groups. Instead they are designed to empower those groups to overthrow the Syrian government.
The conflict within Syria has been raging on since 2011. The first phase of the Geneva Process took place in June 2012. As such I think it is fair to say that it has not made much progress in its objective of overthrowing the Syrian government.
The Geneva Process suffered a significant setback in April 2016 when Syria held its Parliamentary election. This was the second Parliamentary election that Syria has held since the start of the war and the third in total with a Presidential election being held in 2014. It was won comfortably by the Ba'ath Party of Syria's incumbent President Bashar al-Assad.
This latest victory served to significantly undermine the claim that President Assad and the Syrian government have no public support and therefore legitimacy. It is this claimed lack of legitimacy that has been used to justify the previous six years of violence against Syria.
The Geneva Process suffered a further significant setback in December 2016 when the Syrians were able to liberate all of the northern Syrian city of Aleppo.
Against the backdrop of those setbacks the Geneva Process has shifted its approach. The objective is now no longer focused on empowering ISIL and their associates to overthrow the Syrian government. Instead it has become focused on allowing different armed groups to annex parts of Syrian territory from the Syrian government.
This practice known as; "Balkanisation" was aggressively supported by former US President Barack Obama in the dying days of his regime.
As it has been throughout the conflict the majority of Syrian territory has remained under the control of the Syrian government. This area of control stretches from the city of Darraa in the south to Aleppo City in the north.
However to the south-west of Aleppo City there is a small pocket of territory centred around the city of Idlib. This is roughly bordered to the south by the M4 Motorway between the border with Turkey and the town of Saraqib. To the north it is roughly bordered by a line running west from Aleppo City to the Turkish border.
Designated; "The Sudetenland" this roughly 600kmsq (360milesq) area is under the control of the Army of Conquest/Jaish al-Fatah (JAF) coalition of extremist Islamist groups.
The three largest with in the Army of Conquest coalition are;
The Support Front/Jabhat al-Nusra (ANF) - Al Qaeda's affiliate within Syria.
The Islamic Movement of the Freemen of the Levant/Harakat Ahrar ash-Sham al-Islamiyya (Ahrar al-Sham) - an extremist Islamist group who as their name suggests share ISIL ideology.
The United Turkmen Army (UTA) who are an irregular and therefore illegal branch of the Grey Wolves paramilitary wing of the Turkish Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) under the command of Turkish President/Prime Minister/Emperor Recep Tayyip Erdogan.
In the north of Syria there is a roughly 5,000kmsq (3,000 milesq) pocket of territory designated as; "Garvaghy Road." This stretches roughly from the town of Azaz/Kilis to the west, the Euphrates River to the east and the town of al-Bab to the south. It is under the control of the United Turkmen Army and backed by the regular Turkish military.
In the north-east of Syria there is the Euphrates River basin including the cities of Raqqa, Deir-ez-Zour and Palmyra. This is under the control of ISIL.
The largely unpopulated but oil rich area of Syria south of Palmyra and west of As Suwayada is under the control of the Southern Front coalition. This is a group of moderate and radical Islamist fighters who are organised by Britain and supported out of Britain's longterm regional ally Jordan.
Under Erdogan Turkey's objective is to unite the Sudetenland, Garvaghy Road and the ISIL controlled Euphrates basin in order to annex them as part of Erdogan's new Ottoman Empire. This very closely resembles Adolf Hitler's attempts to annex parts of Czechoslovakia in 1938. Hence the area has been designated The Sudetenland.
Having suffered a string of recent defeats both in Iraq and Syria ISIL are becoming increasingly desperate for this plan to advance. So on the day this latest round of Geneva Process meetings formally began (24/2/17) ISIL carried out twin attacks designed to trigger the next phase of the plan.
The first of these occurred on the Friday (24/2/17) morning close to the town of al-Bab.
Since November 2016 Erdogan's forces in the Garvaghy Road have been making a big performance of trying to capture al-Bab. A large part of this has been displacing the local Sunni-Arab population from al-Bab under the pretence of protecting them from the fighting.
That morning Erdogan's forces had gathered a large number of those Sunni-Arab civilians at a checkpoint just outside al-Bab. This gave Erdogan's allies ISIL a large target to mount a suicide bomb attack that succeeded in killing 63.
In the first instance with Sunni-Arab population of al-Bab having being reduced this provided Erdogan with an opportunity to move in Turkish families instead altering the ethnic make-up of the town. This lays the groundwork for Erdogan to absorb the town into his new Ottoman Empire by claiming it is a Turkish town.
Secondly this attack on civilians allows Erdogan to claim that the local population need to be protected. This gives him an excuse to send more regular Turkish troops into Syria in the hope of linking Garvaghy Road to the Euphrates basin.
ISIL's second attack on February 24th (24/2/17) was against a Jordanian border post close to al-Rukban. This killed 15 Jordanian border guards. ISIL's hope was that this would give Jordan an excuse to send the Southern Front further north into Syria to link up with ISIL at Palmyra under the guise of "security."
Erdogan and ISIL's main barrier in this plan to annex parts of Syria is the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF/QSD). This is a wide coalition of Arab, ethnic Turkmen and Assyrian forces that is dominated by the Kurdish People's Protection Units (YPG).
The SDF control the area north of the Sudetenland and west of Garvaghy Road. Centred around the city of Afrin this roughly 520kmsq (310 milesq) area is designated; "The Afrin Canton."
The SDF also control a much larger east of Garvaghy Road and north of the ISIL controlled Euphrates basin. Stretching over some 15,200kmsq (9,120 milesq) this has been designated; "Shangri-La."
Under US President Obama the US was all too keen to help Erdogan eradicate the SDF so he could move into the Afrin Canton and Shangri-La and link up with the ISIL's controlled Euphrates basin.
Obama's plan to get the SDF out of the way of Erdogan's new Ottoman Empire had three main elements;
The first of these was to create internal divisions with the SDF coalition. To this end Obama instructed the US military to establish a rival power structure within the SDF known as the Syrian Arab Council (SAC). As the name suggests this group is made up exclusively of Arab fighters. The idea being to create tension and division between the different ethnic groups with the SDF.
The second element was to create tension between Syria's Kurds and Iraq's Kurds. To this end Obama along with Erdogan and the President of Iraq's Kurdish Region Masoud Barzani set about training a rival Kurdish force to be sent to Syria known as the Roj Peshmerga. The intention being to get the Roj Peshmerga and the YPG to fight each other leaving the SAC, ISIL and the UTA as the winners.
The third element was to force the SDF to launch an attack on Raqqa - ISIL's de facto capital within Syria. Even with the US arming the SAC the SDF are a lightly armed guerrilla force wholly unequipped to liberate a major city from a well defended enemy.
The thinking being that the YPG element of the SDF would sustain heavy casualties during the Raqqa operation. On top of casualties sustained fighting the SAC and the Roj Peshmerga this would cause the SDF to collapse allowing the UTA to waltz in absorbing the SAC into their ranks.
The Geneva Process on Syria now has a rival, non-UN sponsored process in the form of the Astana Process between Russia, Syria, Turkey and Iran. The first meeting of the Astana Process took place in Moscow, Russia on December 20th 2016 (20/12/16).
At that first meeting Erdogan was very keen to raise the issue of Iran's longterm support for Kurds both in Iraq and Syria. This support began with the 1961 Iraqi Kurdish uprising led by Masoud Barzani's father Mustafa Barzani and continued through both the Iranian Revolution of 1979 and the Iran-Iraq war between 1980 and 1988.
During the Iran-Iraq war what went on to become the Iraqi Kurdish Peshmerga fought alongside the Badr Army. The Badr Army are now one of the key groups within Iraq's Popular Mobilisation Forces (PMF) militias.
The Astana Process progressed to the declaration of a ceasefire in Syria on December 29th 2016 (29/12/16). Following a recent meeting on January 24th 2017 (24/1/17) the Astana Process has focused on establishing a mechanism between Russia, Turkey and Iran to monitor and enforce that ceasefire.
At around 17:55 on 6/3/17 (UK date) I'll pick this up after dinner.
Edited at around 19:30 on 6/3/17 (UK date) to add;
As meetings over the Astana ceasefire have progressed it's becoming increasingly clear that things are not going Erdogan's way.
Although the Syrian government control the territory between Darraa in the south and the Sudetenland in the north-west there are little pockets of Army of Conquest fighters remaining. In a village here or a district of a city there.
Ahead on the January 24th (24/1/17) Astana meeting a lot of the focus was on the villages of Wadi Barada and Ayn a-Fijeh which sit just outside the Syrian capital Damascus and control much of the city's water supply. They were under the control of the Army of Conquest. However despite the ceasefire and the Astana Process the Syrians pushed ahead and liberated the villages.
Since then the Syrians have moved on to liberate further areas. These include areas around Daraa, the East Ghouta suburb of Damascus and Army of Conquest held areas in the city of Homs. These operations appear to have been permitted by the Astana ceasefire mechanism and Russia has participated in some of them.
Adding to Erdogan's woes Barack Obama is no longer the US President. His term expired on January 20th (20/1/17) and he was replaced by Donald Trump. One of Trump's first actions was to instruct various departments of the US government to draw up a new strategy for Iraq and Syria. The indicators are that this will be dramatically different from the US' strategy under Obama.
On January 28th (28/1/17) President Trump issued a number of executive orders banning travel from seven nations including Syria to the US for 90 days and the acceptances of refugees from Syrian indefinitely. With these orders being delayed rather than defeated by the US Courts President Trump has today issued a replacement order intended to nullify the opposition.
When Erdogan does not get his way we know what he does. He dispatches terrorists disguised and refugees to attack the nation(s) that he considers to have wronged him. The fact that the US has already taken action to remove this method of retaliation from Erdogan suggests that Erdogan is about to receive some news he's really not going to like.
Also on February 2nd (2/2/17) the Turkish media declared that a number of civilians had been killed in a Russian airstrike within the Sudetenland. However on February 12th (12/2/17) the US announced that it had carried out the airstrike. Far from killing civilians the targeted strike had killed senior Al Qaeda leader Abu Hani Al-Masri along with 10 other Al Qaeda members.
On February 26th (26/2/17) the Turkish media again declared that a number of civilians had been killed in a Russian airstrike in another part of the Sudetenland. Again though on February 28th (28/2/17) the US confirmed that it had carried out the airstrike and far from killing civilians the targeted strike had killed another senior Al Qaeda leader Abu al-Khayr al-Masri.
With his dreams seeming to slip through his fingers Erdogan has decided to take action to change the reality on the ground before the US draws up its new strategy.
On Sunday February 26th (26/2/17) Erdogan invited President of the Iraqi Kurdish Region Masoud Barzani on a visit to Turkey. During this visit Barzani was afforded the full pomp and ceremony normally afforded to a national leaders. This included the flying of the flag of the Iraqi Kurdish Region.
Far from being an honour bestowed on Barzani this was simply Erdogan making a fool out of him.
To the surprise of absolutely no-one the MHP objected loudly to the flying of the flag of Iraq's Kurdish Region. Such was the scale of this outrage it apparently left Erdogan no option other than to let the MHP's paramilitary wing - the UTA - launch an attack against SDF's positions at Manbij - around 50km (30 miles) north-east of al-Bab.
This triggered several days of crisis within the Garvaghy Road area. Matters came to a head on Tuesday (1/3/17) when the US was forced to contact Russia and beg them to use the Astana ceasefire mechanism to get Turkey to stop bombing US Special Operations Forces (SOF) embedded with the SDF. In response Russia took things one step further the following day (2/3/17) and moved Syrian forces between the UTA and the SDF to act as a buffer.
However Erdogan had one more trick up his sleeve. On Wednesday (2/3/17) he instructed President Barzani to deploy the Roj Peshmerga to the town of Sinjar/Shingal in northern Iraq.
Although I personally consider Shingal to be Kurdish it is very firmly outside of the Iraqi Kurdish Region. It is currently being defended by the Shingal Resistance Units (YBS) who like generations of Kurds before them operate alongside the Badr Army as part of the PMF under Iraqi government control.
At Erdogan's instruction the Roj Peshmerga launched an attack intended to oust the YBS from Shingal. Although the fighting has since stopped a tense stand-off continues as Barzani refuses to recall the Roj Peshmerga back to the Kurdish Region.
It's long been known that President Barzani harbours this strange dream that all he needs to do is sell oil to Turkey and Iraq's Kurdish Region will suddenly become an independent nation. In a war that has forged some odd alliances Barzani has been warned about this futility of this idea both by Iran in January and Britain in February.
However on Sunday (5/3/17) the full extent of Barzani's fantasy was laid bare;
In an interview published in an Italian newspaper Barzani declared that the liberation of Mosul would trigger a Czechoslovakian style break-up of Iraq and the establishment of a Kurdish nation. This alone displays a fundamental lack of understanding of the history of Czechoslovakia.
The famous "Velvet Divorce" that led to the creation of the nations of Slovakia and the Czech Republic was an extraordinarily complex affair. It took five years of complex and peaceful negotiations between two consenting parties.
By sending troops to snatch Iraqi cities such as Kirkuk and Shingal President Barzani is instead pursuing the example of Yugoslavia which stood in stark contrast to the Velvet Divorce.
It was the near decade of brutal, genocidal wars that caused the break-up of Yugoslavia that lead to the term; "Balkanisation" being coined. If you look at the continuing tensions between Serbia and its southern Kosovo province you would know that the matter is far from resolved.
It turns out though that Barzani's dreams are not just limited to Iraq's Kurdish Region.
Instead Barzani believes that the liberation of Mosul will be such a monumental event that that it will suddenly sweep aside six years of competing interests within Syria. Erdogan's plan for a new Ottoman Empire will disappear and ISIL, the UTA and the Army of Conquest will simply withdraw from Syria.
In their place will stand a Greater Kurdistan, a Greater Israel and a Greater Jordan.
Apparently the only thing standing in the way is the evil Iranians and their hatred of the Kurds. That alone displays not only a fundamental misunderstanding of the history of Iranian-Kurdish relations but also a fundamental misunderstanding of Barzani's own family history.
So I'm forced to ask whether President Barzani has received assurances on this bold plan of his from the Israelis, the Jordanians, the British and the Americans.
Or has he perhaps just foolishly believed everything that Erdogan's told him?
Being somewhat fluent in UN speak I prefer to describe this as a process rather than talks. That's because the talks don't ever really stop and then start up again. Instead they're almost continuous with only the intensity changing.
For example there were low intensity talks to get the parties - the Syrians and the High Negotiation Committee (HNC) - to the talks. With the parties arriving in Geneva on February 23rd (23/2/17) these then became high intensity talks the following day - Friday February 24th (24/2/17). They then reverted to being low intensity talks last Friday (3/3/17) as the parties discuss attending another meeting later this month.
However you refer to them the Geneva Process serves no purpose in defeating the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) and associated groups. Instead they are designed to empower those groups to overthrow the Syrian government.
The conflict within Syria has been raging on since 2011. The first phase of the Geneva Process took place in June 2012. As such I think it is fair to say that it has not made much progress in its objective of overthrowing the Syrian government.
The Geneva Process suffered a significant setback in April 2016 when Syria held its Parliamentary election. This was the second Parliamentary election that Syria has held since the start of the war and the third in total with a Presidential election being held in 2014. It was won comfortably by the Ba'ath Party of Syria's incumbent President Bashar al-Assad.
This latest victory served to significantly undermine the claim that President Assad and the Syrian government have no public support and therefore legitimacy. It is this claimed lack of legitimacy that has been used to justify the previous six years of violence against Syria.
The Geneva Process suffered a further significant setback in December 2016 when the Syrians were able to liberate all of the northern Syrian city of Aleppo.
Against the backdrop of those setbacks the Geneva Process has shifted its approach. The objective is now no longer focused on empowering ISIL and their associates to overthrow the Syrian government. Instead it has become focused on allowing different armed groups to annex parts of Syrian territory from the Syrian government.
This practice known as; "Balkanisation" was aggressively supported by former US President Barack Obama in the dying days of his regime.
As it has been throughout the conflict the majority of Syrian territory has remained under the control of the Syrian government. This area of control stretches from the city of Darraa in the south to Aleppo City in the north.
However to the south-west of Aleppo City there is a small pocket of territory centred around the city of Idlib. This is roughly bordered to the south by the M4 Motorway between the border with Turkey and the town of Saraqib. To the north it is roughly bordered by a line running west from Aleppo City to the Turkish border.
Designated; "The Sudetenland" this roughly 600kmsq (360milesq) area is under the control of the Army of Conquest/Jaish al-Fatah (JAF) coalition of extremist Islamist groups.
The three largest with in the Army of Conquest coalition are;
The Support Front/Jabhat al-Nusra (ANF) - Al Qaeda's affiliate within Syria.
The Islamic Movement of the Freemen of the Levant/Harakat Ahrar ash-Sham al-Islamiyya (Ahrar al-Sham) - an extremist Islamist group who as their name suggests share ISIL ideology.
The United Turkmen Army (UTA) who are an irregular and therefore illegal branch of the Grey Wolves paramilitary wing of the Turkish Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) under the command of Turkish President/Prime Minister/Emperor Recep Tayyip Erdogan.
In the north of Syria there is a roughly 5,000kmsq (3,000 milesq) pocket of territory designated as; "Garvaghy Road." This stretches roughly from the town of Azaz/Kilis to the west, the Euphrates River to the east and the town of al-Bab to the south. It is under the control of the United Turkmen Army and backed by the regular Turkish military.
In the north-east of Syria there is the Euphrates River basin including the cities of Raqqa, Deir-ez-Zour and Palmyra. This is under the control of ISIL.
The largely unpopulated but oil rich area of Syria south of Palmyra and west of As Suwayada is under the control of the Southern Front coalition. This is a group of moderate and radical Islamist fighters who are organised by Britain and supported out of Britain's longterm regional ally Jordan.
Under Erdogan Turkey's objective is to unite the Sudetenland, Garvaghy Road and the ISIL controlled Euphrates basin in order to annex them as part of Erdogan's new Ottoman Empire. This very closely resembles Adolf Hitler's attempts to annex parts of Czechoslovakia in 1938. Hence the area has been designated The Sudetenland.
Having suffered a string of recent defeats both in Iraq and Syria ISIL are becoming increasingly desperate for this plan to advance. So on the day this latest round of Geneva Process meetings formally began (24/2/17) ISIL carried out twin attacks designed to trigger the next phase of the plan.
The first of these occurred on the Friday (24/2/17) morning close to the town of al-Bab.
Since November 2016 Erdogan's forces in the Garvaghy Road have been making a big performance of trying to capture al-Bab. A large part of this has been displacing the local Sunni-Arab population from al-Bab under the pretence of protecting them from the fighting.
That morning Erdogan's forces had gathered a large number of those Sunni-Arab civilians at a checkpoint just outside al-Bab. This gave Erdogan's allies ISIL a large target to mount a suicide bomb attack that succeeded in killing 63.
In the first instance with Sunni-Arab population of al-Bab having being reduced this provided Erdogan with an opportunity to move in Turkish families instead altering the ethnic make-up of the town. This lays the groundwork for Erdogan to absorb the town into his new Ottoman Empire by claiming it is a Turkish town.
Secondly this attack on civilians allows Erdogan to claim that the local population need to be protected. This gives him an excuse to send more regular Turkish troops into Syria in the hope of linking Garvaghy Road to the Euphrates basin.
ISIL's second attack on February 24th (24/2/17) was against a Jordanian border post close to al-Rukban. This killed 15 Jordanian border guards. ISIL's hope was that this would give Jordan an excuse to send the Southern Front further north into Syria to link up with ISIL at Palmyra under the guise of "security."
Erdogan and ISIL's main barrier in this plan to annex parts of Syria is the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF/QSD). This is a wide coalition of Arab, ethnic Turkmen and Assyrian forces that is dominated by the Kurdish People's Protection Units (YPG).
The SDF control the area north of the Sudetenland and west of Garvaghy Road. Centred around the city of Afrin this roughly 520kmsq (310 milesq) area is designated; "The Afrin Canton."
The SDF also control a much larger east of Garvaghy Road and north of the ISIL controlled Euphrates basin. Stretching over some 15,200kmsq (9,120 milesq) this has been designated; "Shangri-La."
Under US President Obama the US was all too keen to help Erdogan eradicate the SDF so he could move into the Afrin Canton and Shangri-La and link up with the ISIL's controlled Euphrates basin.
Obama's plan to get the SDF out of the way of Erdogan's new Ottoman Empire had three main elements;
The first of these was to create internal divisions with the SDF coalition. To this end Obama instructed the US military to establish a rival power structure within the SDF known as the Syrian Arab Council (SAC). As the name suggests this group is made up exclusively of Arab fighters. The idea being to create tension and division between the different ethnic groups with the SDF.
The second element was to create tension between Syria's Kurds and Iraq's Kurds. To this end Obama along with Erdogan and the President of Iraq's Kurdish Region Masoud Barzani set about training a rival Kurdish force to be sent to Syria known as the Roj Peshmerga. The intention being to get the Roj Peshmerga and the YPG to fight each other leaving the SAC, ISIL and the UTA as the winners.
The third element was to force the SDF to launch an attack on Raqqa - ISIL's de facto capital within Syria. Even with the US arming the SAC the SDF are a lightly armed guerrilla force wholly unequipped to liberate a major city from a well defended enemy.
The thinking being that the YPG element of the SDF would sustain heavy casualties during the Raqqa operation. On top of casualties sustained fighting the SAC and the Roj Peshmerga this would cause the SDF to collapse allowing the UTA to waltz in absorbing the SAC into their ranks.
The Geneva Process on Syria now has a rival, non-UN sponsored process in the form of the Astana Process between Russia, Syria, Turkey and Iran. The first meeting of the Astana Process took place in Moscow, Russia on December 20th 2016 (20/12/16).
At that first meeting Erdogan was very keen to raise the issue of Iran's longterm support for Kurds both in Iraq and Syria. This support began with the 1961 Iraqi Kurdish uprising led by Masoud Barzani's father Mustafa Barzani and continued through both the Iranian Revolution of 1979 and the Iran-Iraq war between 1980 and 1988.
During the Iran-Iraq war what went on to become the Iraqi Kurdish Peshmerga fought alongside the Badr Army. The Badr Army are now one of the key groups within Iraq's Popular Mobilisation Forces (PMF) militias.
The Astana Process progressed to the declaration of a ceasefire in Syria on December 29th 2016 (29/12/16). Following a recent meeting on January 24th 2017 (24/1/17) the Astana Process has focused on establishing a mechanism between Russia, Turkey and Iran to monitor and enforce that ceasefire.
At around 17:55 on 6/3/17 (UK date) I'll pick this up after dinner.
Edited at around 19:30 on 6/3/17 (UK date) to add;
As meetings over the Astana ceasefire have progressed it's becoming increasingly clear that things are not going Erdogan's way.
Although the Syrian government control the territory between Darraa in the south and the Sudetenland in the north-west there are little pockets of Army of Conquest fighters remaining. In a village here or a district of a city there.
Ahead on the January 24th (24/1/17) Astana meeting a lot of the focus was on the villages of Wadi Barada and Ayn a-Fijeh which sit just outside the Syrian capital Damascus and control much of the city's water supply. They were under the control of the Army of Conquest. However despite the ceasefire and the Astana Process the Syrians pushed ahead and liberated the villages.
Since then the Syrians have moved on to liberate further areas. These include areas around Daraa, the East Ghouta suburb of Damascus and Army of Conquest held areas in the city of Homs. These operations appear to have been permitted by the Astana ceasefire mechanism and Russia has participated in some of them.
Adding to Erdogan's woes Barack Obama is no longer the US President. His term expired on January 20th (20/1/17) and he was replaced by Donald Trump. One of Trump's first actions was to instruct various departments of the US government to draw up a new strategy for Iraq and Syria. The indicators are that this will be dramatically different from the US' strategy under Obama.
On January 28th (28/1/17) President Trump issued a number of executive orders banning travel from seven nations including Syria to the US for 90 days and the acceptances of refugees from Syrian indefinitely. With these orders being delayed rather than defeated by the US Courts President Trump has today issued a replacement order intended to nullify the opposition.
When Erdogan does not get his way we know what he does. He dispatches terrorists disguised and refugees to attack the nation(s) that he considers to have wronged him. The fact that the US has already taken action to remove this method of retaliation from Erdogan suggests that Erdogan is about to receive some news he's really not going to like.
Also on February 2nd (2/2/17) the Turkish media declared that a number of civilians had been killed in a Russian airstrike within the Sudetenland. However on February 12th (12/2/17) the US announced that it had carried out the airstrike. Far from killing civilians the targeted strike had killed senior Al Qaeda leader Abu Hani Al-Masri along with 10 other Al Qaeda members.
On February 26th (26/2/17) the Turkish media again declared that a number of civilians had been killed in a Russian airstrike in another part of the Sudetenland. Again though on February 28th (28/2/17) the US confirmed that it had carried out the airstrike and far from killing civilians the targeted strike had killed another senior Al Qaeda leader Abu al-Khayr al-Masri.
With his dreams seeming to slip through his fingers Erdogan has decided to take action to change the reality on the ground before the US draws up its new strategy.
On Sunday February 26th (26/2/17) Erdogan invited President of the Iraqi Kurdish Region Masoud Barzani on a visit to Turkey. During this visit Barzani was afforded the full pomp and ceremony normally afforded to a national leaders. This included the flying of the flag of the Iraqi Kurdish Region.
Far from being an honour bestowed on Barzani this was simply Erdogan making a fool out of him.
To the surprise of absolutely no-one the MHP objected loudly to the flying of the flag of Iraq's Kurdish Region. Such was the scale of this outrage it apparently left Erdogan no option other than to let the MHP's paramilitary wing - the UTA - launch an attack against SDF's positions at Manbij - around 50km (30 miles) north-east of al-Bab.
This triggered several days of crisis within the Garvaghy Road area. Matters came to a head on Tuesday (1/3/17) when the US was forced to contact Russia and beg them to use the Astana ceasefire mechanism to get Turkey to stop bombing US Special Operations Forces (SOF) embedded with the SDF. In response Russia took things one step further the following day (2/3/17) and moved Syrian forces between the UTA and the SDF to act as a buffer.
However Erdogan had one more trick up his sleeve. On Wednesday (2/3/17) he instructed President Barzani to deploy the Roj Peshmerga to the town of Sinjar/Shingal in northern Iraq.
Although I personally consider Shingal to be Kurdish it is very firmly outside of the Iraqi Kurdish Region. It is currently being defended by the Shingal Resistance Units (YBS) who like generations of Kurds before them operate alongside the Badr Army as part of the PMF under Iraqi government control.
At Erdogan's instruction the Roj Peshmerga launched an attack intended to oust the YBS from Shingal. Although the fighting has since stopped a tense stand-off continues as Barzani refuses to recall the Roj Peshmerga back to the Kurdish Region.
It's long been known that President Barzani harbours this strange dream that all he needs to do is sell oil to Turkey and Iraq's Kurdish Region will suddenly become an independent nation. In a war that has forged some odd alliances Barzani has been warned about this futility of this idea both by Iran in January and Britain in February.
However on Sunday (5/3/17) the full extent of Barzani's fantasy was laid bare;
In an interview published in an Italian newspaper Barzani declared that the liberation of Mosul would trigger a Czechoslovakian style break-up of Iraq and the establishment of a Kurdish nation. This alone displays a fundamental lack of understanding of the history of Czechoslovakia.
The famous "Velvet Divorce" that led to the creation of the nations of Slovakia and the Czech Republic was an extraordinarily complex affair. It took five years of complex and peaceful negotiations between two consenting parties.
By sending troops to snatch Iraqi cities such as Kirkuk and Shingal President Barzani is instead pursuing the example of Yugoslavia which stood in stark contrast to the Velvet Divorce.
It was the near decade of brutal, genocidal wars that caused the break-up of Yugoslavia that lead to the term; "Balkanisation" being coined. If you look at the continuing tensions between Serbia and its southern Kosovo province you would know that the matter is far from resolved.
It turns out though that Barzani's dreams are not just limited to Iraq's Kurdish Region.
Instead Barzani believes that the liberation of Mosul will be such a monumental event that that it will suddenly sweep aside six years of competing interests within Syria. Erdogan's plan for a new Ottoman Empire will disappear and ISIL, the UTA and the Army of Conquest will simply withdraw from Syria.
In their place will stand a Greater Kurdistan, a Greater Israel and a Greater Jordan.
Apparently the only thing standing in the way is the evil Iranians and their hatred of the Kurds. That alone displays not only a fundamental misunderstanding of the history of Iranian-Kurdish relations but also a fundamental misunderstanding of Barzani's own family history.
So I'm forced to ask whether President Barzani has received assurances on this bold plan of his from the Israelis, the Jordanians, the British and the Americans.
Or has he perhaps just foolishly believed everything that Erdogan's told him?
Friday, 3 March 2017
Operation Featherweight: Month 32, Week 2, Day 5.
On October 17th 2016 (17/10/16) an operation was launched to liberate the northern Iraqi city of Mosul from the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL).
This was supposed to be a combined operation between the Iraqi Security Forces (ISF), the Iraqi Popular Mobilisation Forces (PMF) militia and the Iraqi Kurdish Peshmerga. It was to be backed by the US-led coalition - Combined Joint Task Force: Operation Inherent Resolve (CJTFOIR).
Mosul is a city of around 1.8 million people. Since their invasion in the summer of 2014 it has functioned as ISIL's de facto capital within Iraq. It is also where ISIL leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi declared the group to be a Caliphate and he its Caliph.
As such the liberation of Mosul will be a huge step both practically and symbolically in defeating ISIL. However in preparation for the Mosul operation - which was launched just before the November 2016 US Presidential Election - the liberation of Mosul was presented as some sort of silver bullet that would mean the immediate defeat of ISIL and an end to the region's security problems.
This is simply not the case. Iraq's security problems will not end until ISIL has been totally defeated both in Iraq and Syria. They certainly won't end until ISIL has been defeated in all the other areas it currently holds within Iraq. The most significant of these is an area known as the Hawija Triangle. Located around 180km (110 miles) south-east of Mosul.
Centred around the town of Hawija this triangle is bordered on three sides by Kirkuk, Baiji and Tikrit. It was created in the summer of 2015 when the ISF and the PMF liberated Tikrit and Baiji from ISIL. An operation that CJTFOIR under former US President Barack Obama refused to participate in.
The problem with liberating the Hawija Triangle from ISIL has been the ongoing tension between the Iraqi Kurdistan Region and the Iraqi government. Although a mixed city Kirkuk sits just beyond the boundary of the Kurdistan Region. However in response to ISIL's invasion the Iraqi Kurdish Peshmerga moved into secure the city.
As a result the Iraqi government and the Iraqi Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) refuse to work with each other to liberate the Hawija Triangle. The Iraqi government are legitimately concerned that the KRG will use such an operation as a land grab to seize more Iraqi territory. The KRG are concerned that the operation will remove the security threat resulting in the Peshmerga having to return Kirkuk to Iraqi control.
Amid this standoff KRG President Masoud Barzani has become completely overcome by greed. He seems to have got it into his head that if he can sell oil from the Kirkuk fields to Turkey this will enable him to declare the Iraqi Kurdistan Region to be an independent state without the consent of the Iraqi government.
In pursuit of this frankly bonkers pipedream Barzani has repeatedly made a fool of both himself and the Iraqi Kurdish people.
Back in December 2015 Turkish President/Prime Minister/Emperor Recep Tayyip Erdogan deployed roughly a battalion of Turkish troops to a camp in Bashiqa which is just outside Mosul. This was done without the permission of either the Iraqi government or the KRG.
This small scale Turkish invasion of northern Iraq was done to test the water for a full Turkish invasion and annexation of the Kurdish areas of Syria that was scheduled for December 16th 2015 (16/12/15). It was only after intense international pressure that Erdogan was forced to abandon his invasion plans.
On October 4th 2016 (4/10/16) the Iraqi Parliament passed a resolution demanding that Erdogan's troops vacate the Bashiqa camp and end their illegal occupation of Iraq. Having Barzani popped up to defend Erdogan demanding that his troops stay in Bashiqa. Something that wildly exceeded Bazarni's authority not least because like Mosul Bashiqa is not within the Kurdish Region.
Then there was the Mosul operation itself. The only strategic concern behind launching this operation in October 2016 was to get it under way in time for the US Presidential Election. This was completely the wrong time to launch this operation.
One of the big concerns we currently have for residents still trapped in western Mosul is the lack of heating fuel. This would simply not be an issue if the operation was being conducted from spring into summer rather than from autumn into winter.
The Mosul operation was begun on the night of Saturday October 15th 2016 (15/10/16) when Erdogan's troops in the Bashiqa camp started firing artillery into Mosul. On Sunday October 16th (16/10/17) Barzani again popped up in support of Erdogan and declared the operation to be under way. This forced Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi to announced the start of the operation on Monday October 17th (17/10/16).
Prior to that point Abadi along with all non-US members of CJTFOIR were calling for the operation to be delayed until the spring when it would have stood a greater chance of success. It was due almost entirely to Barzani's actions that this international effort failed and the Mosul operation was launched. We've been trying to make the best of a bad situation ever since.
While Erdogan's plan to invade Syria's Kurdish regions on December 16th 2015 (16/10/15) were thwarted they were not halted entirely. On August 24th 2016 (24/8/16) Erdogan sent forces to invade and occupy the Garvaghy Road area of northern Syria. Since then there has been a huge international effort to stop Erdogan attacking the predominately Kurdish Syrian Democrat Forces (SDF/QSD) both in the adjoining Shangri-La and Afrin Canton areas.
Curiously for a Kurd Barzani has chosen not to stand with this international effort. Instead he has chosen to stand with Erdogan. Barzani has even gone so far as to establish a group of Syrian Kurdish deserters in a force called; "The Roj Peshmerga." Bazarni has repeatedly threatened to send these deserters into Syria to fight the SDF at Erdogan's command.
As recently as last Sunday (26/2/17) Barzani made a trip to Turkey. There he enjoyed all the pomp and circumstance such as the red carpet and the flying of the Iraqi Kurdish Regional flag that he thought befitted his ego as national leader.
Unfortunately in his ineptitude Barzani did not realise that is exactly what his host Erdogan wanted. In response to the flying of the Iraqi Kurdish Regional flag the Turkish Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) have reacted with their usual fury. This has given Erdogan all the excuse he's needed to launch an attack on the SDF at Manbij prompting the crisis we've seen all week.
This crisis only seems to have been resolved yesterday (2/3/17) with the SDF being forced to cede their positions around the town of Arima to Syrian forces. The thinking being that those Syrian forces will act as a buffer preventing Erdogan launching further attacks on Syria's Kurds.
So to answer the question posed today by Barzani's adviser Hemin Harwani the SDF have been forced to give up their positions around Arima because Barzani is completely fucking incompetent.
It was yesterday (2/3/17) though that Barzani seemed to suffer a complete psychotic break;
In the morning Barzani sent Iraqi Peshmerga forces to seize the Kirkuk oil facility claiming it in the name of the Kurdish Region. This complete shutdown production from the entire Kirkuk oil field. With the Kurdistan Region's only oil pipeline running through Turkey this effectively claims a large part of Iraq's oil reserves in the name of Turkey.
Barzani wasn't finished there though. In the afternoon he deployed the Roj Peshmerga to Sinjar/Shingal which is outside of the Kurdish Region. Today the Roj Peshmerga have proceeded to battle the Sinjar Resistance Units (YBS).
The origins of the YBS can be traced back to ISIL invasion of northern Iraq and the atrocity atop of Mount Sinjar that finally shocked the World into action. With the Iraqi Peshmerga being unwilling or unable to take action it fell to the Syrian Kurdish People's Protection Units (YPG) to climb Mount Sinjar and rescue the Yezidi civilians trapped there. To prevent a repeat of the atrocity the YPG formed the YBS.
As he has made his increasingly dangerous and out of control moves it is clear that Barzani has given absolutely no thought to his end game.
Barzani's dream of breaking away from Iraq and establishing the Iraqi Kurdish Region as an independent nation state depends entirely on Turkey agreeing to the creation of a Kurdish nation. There is absolute nothing in Turkey's 94 year history to suggest that is going to happen.
That idea has become even less likely with Erdogan controlling Turkey. Erdogan is a neo-Ottoman. That means he wants to re-establish the Ottoman Empire. Ahead of the Mosul operation Turkey declared that Mosul, Kirkuk and Erbil along with the entire Iraqi Kurdish Region is part of that new Ottoman Empire.
Erdogan has already sent troops to annex Syria's Kurdish region as part of that new Empire and has his forces occupying northern Iraq and his aircraft bombing Iraq's Kurdish Region on a near daily basis.
So if Barzani were to declare Iraq's Kurdish Region as nation independent from Iraq everyone - except apparently Barzani - knows exactly what will happen;
The first step is that Turkey will cut off this new Kurdish nation's oil exports and withhold the outstanding revenues. This will leave Barzani unable to pay to defend his new nation.
Turkey will then invade and because Barzani has illegally declared a new nation within the borders of an existing nation nobody will be able to come his aid. Particularly not Turkey's NATO allies.
As for the Mosul operation it is obviously on hold now that Barzani seems to have ordered the Peshmerga to join forces with ISIL battling the Iraqis, the Yezidis and the Kurds.
So I think that not only does Barzani need to immediately withdraw his forces from both the Kirkuk oil company and from Sinjar he needs to immediately step aside.
At least until we can investigate whether he is actually in the pay of Erdogan's intelligence services.
16:20 on 3/3/17 (UK date).
This was supposed to be a combined operation between the Iraqi Security Forces (ISF), the Iraqi Popular Mobilisation Forces (PMF) militia and the Iraqi Kurdish Peshmerga. It was to be backed by the US-led coalition - Combined Joint Task Force: Operation Inherent Resolve (CJTFOIR).
Mosul is a city of around 1.8 million people. Since their invasion in the summer of 2014 it has functioned as ISIL's de facto capital within Iraq. It is also where ISIL leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi declared the group to be a Caliphate and he its Caliph.
As such the liberation of Mosul will be a huge step both practically and symbolically in defeating ISIL. However in preparation for the Mosul operation - which was launched just before the November 2016 US Presidential Election - the liberation of Mosul was presented as some sort of silver bullet that would mean the immediate defeat of ISIL and an end to the region's security problems.
This is simply not the case. Iraq's security problems will not end until ISIL has been totally defeated both in Iraq and Syria. They certainly won't end until ISIL has been defeated in all the other areas it currently holds within Iraq. The most significant of these is an area known as the Hawija Triangle. Located around 180km (110 miles) south-east of Mosul.
Centred around the town of Hawija this triangle is bordered on three sides by Kirkuk, Baiji and Tikrit. It was created in the summer of 2015 when the ISF and the PMF liberated Tikrit and Baiji from ISIL. An operation that CJTFOIR under former US President Barack Obama refused to participate in.
The problem with liberating the Hawija Triangle from ISIL has been the ongoing tension between the Iraqi Kurdistan Region and the Iraqi government. Although a mixed city Kirkuk sits just beyond the boundary of the Kurdistan Region. However in response to ISIL's invasion the Iraqi Kurdish Peshmerga moved into secure the city.
As a result the Iraqi government and the Iraqi Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) refuse to work with each other to liberate the Hawija Triangle. The Iraqi government are legitimately concerned that the KRG will use such an operation as a land grab to seize more Iraqi territory. The KRG are concerned that the operation will remove the security threat resulting in the Peshmerga having to return Kirkuk to Iraqi control.
Amid this standoff KRG President Masoud Barzani has become completely overcome by greed. He seems to have got it into his head that if he can sell oil from the Kirkuk fields to Turkey this will enable him to declare the Iraqi Kurdistan Region to be an independent state without the consent of the Iraqi government.
In pursuit of this frankly bonkers pipedream Barzani has repeatedly made a fool of both himself and the Iraqi Kurdish people.
Back in December 2015 Turkish President/Prime Minister/Emperor Recep Tayyip Erdogan deployed roughly a battalion of Turkish troops to a camp in Bashiqa which is just outside Mosul. This was done without the permission of either the Iraqi government or the KRG.
This small scale Turkish invasion of northern Iraq was done to test the water for a full Turkish invasion and annexation of the Kurdish areas of Syria that was scheduled for December 16th 2015 (16/12/15). It was only after intense international pressure that Erdogan was forced to abandon his invasion plans.
On October 4th 2016 (4/10/16) the Iraqi Parliament passed a resolution demanding that Erdogan's troops vacate the Bashiqa camp and end their illegal occupation of Iraq. Having Barzani popped up to defend Erdogan demanding that his troops stay in Bashiqa. Something that wildly exceeded Bazarni's authority not least because like Mosul Bashiqa is not within the Kurdish Region.
Then there was the Mosul operation itself. The only strategic concern behind launching this operation in October 2016 was to get it under way in time for the US Presidential Election. This was completely the wrong time to launch this operation.
One of the big concerns we currently have for residents still trapped in western Mosul is the lack of heating fuel. This would simply not be an issue if the operation was being conducted from spring into summer rather than from autumn into winter.
The Mosul operation was begun on the night of Saturday October 15th 2016 (15/10/16) when Erdogan's troops in the Bashiqa camp started firing artillery into Mosul. On Sunday October 16th (16/10/17) Barzani again popped up in support of Erdogan and declared the operation to be under way. This forced Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi to announced the start of the operation on Monday October 17th (17/10/16).
Prior to that point Abadi along with all non-US members of CJTFOIR were calling for the operation to be delayed until the spring when it would have stood a greater chance of success. It was due almost entirely to Barzani's actions that this international effort failed and the Mosul operation was launched. We've been trying to make the best of a bad situation ever since.
While Erdogan's plan to invade Syria's Kurdish regions on December 16th 2015 (16/10/15) were thwarted they were not halted entirely. On August 24th 2016 (24/8/16) Erdogan sent forces to invade and occupy the Garvaghy Road area of northern Syria. Since then there has been a huge international effort to stop Erdogan attacking the predominately Kurdish Syrian Democrat Forces (SDF/QSD) both in the adjoining Shangri-La and Afrin Canton areas.
Curiously for a Kurd Barzani has chosen not to stand with this international effort. Instead he has chosen to stand with Erdogan. Barzani has even gone so far as to establish a group of Syrian Kurdish deserters in a force called; "The Roj Peshmerga." Bazarni has repeatedly threatened to send these deserters into Syria to fight the SDF at Erdogan's command.
As recently as last Sunday (26/2/17) Barzani made a trip to Turkey. There he enjoyed all the pomp and circumstance such as the red carpet and the flying of the Iraqi Kurdish Regional flag that he thought befitted his ego as national leader.
Unfortunately in his ineptitude Barzani did not realise that is exactly what his host Erdogan wanted. In response to the flying of the Iraqi Kurdish Regional flag the Turkish Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) have reacted with their usual fury. This has given Erdogan all the excuse he's needed to launch an attack on the SDF at Manbij prompting the crisis we've seen all week.
This crisis only seems to have been resolved yesterday (2/3/17) with the SDF being forced to cede their positions around the town of Arima to Syrian forces. The thinking being that those Syrian forces will act as a buffer preventing Erdogan launching further attacks on Syria's Kurds.
So to answer the question posed today by Barzani's adviser Hemin Harwani the SDF have been forced to give up their positions around Arima because Barzani is completely fucking incompetent.
It was yesterday (2/3/17) though that Barzani seemed to suffer a complete psychotic break;
In the morning Barzani sent Iraqi Peshmerga forces to seize the Kirkuk oil facility claiming it in the name of the Kurdish Region. This complete shutdown production from the entire Kirkuk oil field. With the Kurdistan Region's only oil pipeline running through Turkey this effectively claims a large part of Iraq's oil reserves in the name of Turkey.
Barzani wasn't finished there though. In the afternoon he deployed the Roj Peshmerga to Sinjar/Shingal which is outside of the Kurdish Region. Today the Roj Peshmerga have proceeded to battle the Sinjar Resistance Units (YBS).
The origins of the YBS can be traced back to ISIL invasion of northern Iraq and the atrocity atop of Mount Sinjar that finally shocked the World into action. With the Iraqi Peshmerga being unwilling or unable to take action it fell to the Syrian Kurdish People's Protection Units (YPG) to climb Mount Sinjar and rescue the Yezidi civilians trapped there. To prevent a repeat of the atrocity the YPG formed the YBS.
As he has made his increasingly dangerous and out of control moves it is clear that Barzani has given absolutely no thought to his end game.
Barzani's dream of breaking away from Iraq and establishing the Iraqi Kurdish Region as an independent nation state depends entirely on Turkey agreeing to the creation of a Kurdish nation. There is absolute nothing in Turkey's 94 year history to suggest that is going to happen.
That idea has become even less likely with Erdogan controlling Turkey. Erdogan is a neo-Ottoman. That means he wants to re-establish the Ottoman Empire. Ahead of the Mosul operation Turkey declared that Mosul, Kirkuk and Erbil along with the entire Iraqi Kurdish Region is part of that new Ottoman Empire.
Erdogan has already sent troops to annex Syria's Kurdish region as part of that new Empire and has his forces occupying northern Iraq and his aircraft bombing Iraq's Kurdish Region on a near daily basis.
So if Barzani were to declare Iraq's Kurdish Region as nation independent from Iraq everyone - except apparently Barzani - knows exactly what will happen;
The first step is that Turkey will cut off this new Kurdish nation's oil exports and withhold the outstanding revenues. This will leave Barzani unable to pay to defend his new nation.
Turkey will then invade and because Barzani has illegally declared a new nation within the borders of an existing nation nobody will be able to come his aid. Particularly not Turkey's NATO allies.
As for the Mosul operation it is obviously on hold now that Barzani seems to have ordered the Peshmerga to join forces with ISIL battling the Iraqis, the Yezidis and the Kurds.
So I think that not only does Barzani need to immediately withdraw his forces from both the Kirkuk oil company and from Sinjar he needs to immediately step aside.
At least until we can investigate whether he is actually in the pay of Erdogan's intelligence services.
16:20 on 3/3/17 (UK date).
Thursday, 2 March 2017
Operation Featherweight: month 32, Week 2, Day 4
As I seem to find myself saying every day;
Key to the defeat of the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) and associated groups is the Garvaghy Road area of northern Syria.
This area of Syria's northern border with Turkey stretches roughly 100km (60 miles) between the towns of Azaz/Kilis in the west and the Euphrates River in the east. On either side it is bordered by the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) who are backed by the US-led coalition - Combined Joint Task Force: Operation Inherent Resolve (CJTFOIR).
To the west the SDF have established a de facto safe-haven known as the Afrin Canton whilst to the east the SDF have established a much larger de facto safe-haven known as Shangri-La.
On August 24th 2016 (24/8/16) Turkish President/Prime Minister/Emperor Recep Tayyip Erdogan sent regular Turkish forces to illegally invade and occupy the Garvaghy Road area. This was done specifically to prevent the SDF from linking Shangri-La and the Afrin Canton cutting ISIL's supply lines with Turkey in the process.
Since November 2016 the focus of Erdogan's operations within the Garvaghy Road area has been the town of al-Bab. This sits around 40km (24 miles) south of the Turkish border, 35km (20 miles) north-east of Aleppo City and 50km (30 miles) south-west of Manbij - the SDF's most advanced position just inside Garvaghy Road.
Last Friday (24/2/17) Erdogan's forces captured al-Bab. Since then Erdogan has become increasingly aggressive making a series of highly dangerous moves;
On Sunday (26/2/17) Erdogan's allies ISIL launched a Vehicle Borne Improvised Explosive Device (VBIED) attack against a convoy of US Special Operations Forces (SOF's) who are embedded with the SDF. The attack occurred around 35km (20 miles) south of the city of Kobane where US SOF's have one of their main operations bases. Fortunately no US troops were killed on injured in the attack.
On Monday (27/2/17) Erdogan's forces attacked Syria forces at Tedef - 1km (06 miles) south of al-Bab - killing 22. This is the most serious example of direct combat between Syria as a nation state and Turkey as an invading state so far in this six year war.
On Tuesday (28/2/17) Erdogan declared that his forces will be attacking the SDF and the US SOF's embedded with them at Manbij. This prompted US Central Command (CENTCOM) to Tweet out pictures of female SDF fighters alongside captions such as; "Ready For Battle."
Yesterday (1/3/17) Turkish jets under Erdogan's command conducted airstrikes against SDF positions at Tal Rifat. This sits around 13km (8 miles) south of Azaz and marks the boundary between Garvaghy Road and the Afrin Canton de facto safe-haven.
Those airstrikes were followed up in the afternoon with more airstrikes against SDF positions at Manbij. Those Erdogan ordered airstrikes appear to have been coordinated in support of ISIL group operation against the town.
I ended my post yesterday (1/3/17) by saying that we were awaiting a response from CJTFOIR.
It was around two hours after that post that we got that response from CJTFOIR. They simply blamed the Russians.
In a routine press conference CJTFOIR's US Lt. General Townsend announced that Russian and Syrian aircraft had attacked SDF positions thinking they were ISIL positions.
Although he gave no specific location Lt. Gen Townsend said they had occurred in the vicinity of Manbij and around 30km (18 miles) from where US SOF's were located. He went on to explain that the US had contacted Russia via the deconfliction hotline that exists between the two nations and the airstrikes stopped. Lt. Gen Townsend had no comment on the Tal Rifat strikes.
Obviously I was following events in and around Manbij extremely closely yesterday. As such I can assure you that the airstrikes occurred around the small town of Arima which sits around 20km (12 miles) south-west of Manbij and around 20km (12 miles) north-east of al-Bab along the M4 Motorway.
I can also assure you that they were carried out by F-16 fighter/multi-role jets.
If you are familiar with different types of warplanes which the people in northern Syria are F-16's look and sound extremely different from the Su-24's, Su-27's and Su-30's that are used by the Russian and Syrian airforces. For example the F-16 is a single engined aircraft while all the Su's are twin engined. The F-16 has a single tail while the Su-27's and Su-30's in particular have twin tails and a very distinctive, almost crick in their neck.
The airstrikes were also accompanied by artillery strikes from Erdogan's forces located in and around al-Bab.
So the only two things about Lt. Gen Townsend's account was that the strikes came close to killing US SOF's and the only way that CJTFOIR could stop them was by contacting Russia to contact Turkey under the Astana ceasefire mechanism.
Obviously having saved US troops from attack by Erdogan's forces the Russians are not happy about being blamed for the attack. However that seems to be exactly the point.
If CJTFOIR wanted to protect US troops in Manbij or elsewhere from attacks by Erdogan's aircraft they could do so quite easily. They would simply deploy the Avenger weapons system which is essentially a battery of Stinger anti-aircraft missiles mounted on the back of a Humvee. I gather protesters at the Dakota Access Pipeline site are extremely familiar with this weapons system.
However one NATO member shooting down the aircraft of another NATO member is likely to be extremely politically sensitive. Looking at the current anti-Russian rhetoric within US politics Erdogan has got to be calculating that there is no way that US President Trump would dare shoot down ISIL's airforce even if it is attacking US troops.
After all what caused the breakdown in US-Russian relations between the 2009 "Re-set" and now is the 2011 rise of ISIL. In short Russia opposes ISIL while US Democrats support them. So the US Democrats anti-Russian hysteria is actually what they view as a publicly acceptable expression of their support for ISIL.
Yesterday was something of a busy day for the Russia issue within US politics.
Firstly the bipartisan House of Representatives intelligence committee approved an investigation by themselves into links between Russia and President Trump's election campaign. These of course are the allegations that the New York Times reported on February 23rd (23/2/17) have already been completely dismissed as untrue by the FBI.
Secondly the US broadcaster that has become known as the "Clinton News Network" (CNN) held a televised Town Hall-style event with the Republican Senators and close friends John McCain and Lindsey Graham - two very vocal critics of President Trump.
Senator McCain in particular is someone that I used to have a lot of respect for. In fact I even endorsed him for President in 2008 against Barack Obama. However since that defeat McCain seems to have wandered off into his dotage.
Since at least 2013 McCain has been a vocal supporter and frequent visitor to a number of Erdogan-backed, ISIL affiliated armed groups in northern Syria. Particularly the Northern Storm Brigade out of Azaz. They now fight as part of Erdogan's United Turkmen Army (UTA) within Garvaghy Road. In short John McCain is friends with the people who've just been shooting at US troops.
As recently as January 2017 Sen McCain has been visiting with armed groups inside the former Ukraine. This visit in particular seems to have given actual World War Two Nazis the confidence to launch an attack against a railway line and then the eastern city of Avdiivka in complete violation of the Minsk Protocol.
So when it comes to Russia John McCain has started to remind me of the Madame Fanny La Fan character from the British sitcom "Allo Allo." This senile old biddy would lie in bed all day until someone mentioned the Germans and she would spit on the floor in disgust.
It would seem I'm not the only one starting to think that way. Last Thursday (23/2/17) the US' SOF's based in Kobane brought John McCain over on a special visit. The purpose seemed to be to force him to look in the eye each person that he is trying to get killed.
As such Lt. Gen Townsend's comments yesterday seemed to be a little reminder to US politicians - particularly Republicans - that the US is currently relying on Russia to protect US troops and by extension US civilians from ISIL and their backer Erdogan. As such it seems unwise to berate Russia to the point they're no longer prepared to do the US this massive favour.
To put it more explicitly; Ideally everyone would prefer it if members of the US Congress didn't make up lies to play their grubby little games. However pragmatically they can be free to lie as much as they like but they'd better steer clear of the lies about Russia. After all this is reality.
Given his 23 years of military service and two years on the Senate Armed Services Committee you would think Senator McCain would be better placed than most to pick up on that sort of hint.
At around 18:15 on 2/3/17 (UK date) I have much more to add after dinner.
Edited at around 19:40 on 2/3/17 (UK date) to add;
In today's edition the Hillary Clinton endorsing Washington Post newspaper decided to firmly nail their colours to the mast.
They reported details of US Attorney General Jeff Sessions contacts with Russia during the election campaign. Specifically that he had attended a party that was also attended by the Russian Ambassador to the US - Segei Kislyak and in his role as a member of the Senate Armed Services Committee had met with Kislyak in September 2016.
Under the 1961 Vienna Convention on Diplomatic Relations this is exactly the point of an Ambassador. Regardless of what country they're from or what country they're in the job of an Ambassador is to talk to members of the host government or candidates for election to help understand their position and put forward their own government's position.
The role of Ambassador's is particularly important between nations that don't like each other. There they are often the only form of communication between nations.
I think probably the most famous example of this from US history was the so-called "14-part message" of December 7th 1941 that was sent via the Japanese Ambassador to the US warning that war had been declared and the Pearl Harbour attack was imminent. The failure of the Ambassador to make timely contact with US government officials remains an issue of great controversy to this day.
Of course if the US wants to break with several hundred years of diplomatic convention and stop an Ambassador from a certain nation having contact with members of it's government it is free to expel that Ambassador from the country.
However to put things in perspective I think I should point out that even after Pearl Harbour the US did not expel the Japanese Ambassador. Nor did they expel various Ambassadors of the Soviet Union during the Cold War. Not even during the Cuban Missile Crisis in which Anatoly Dobrynin played a vital role in preventing a nuclear holocaust.
In choosing to publish their frankly non-story today the Washington Post seem to have intentionally timed their move to give succour to Erdogan in the Garvaghy Road standoff.
From experience we know exactly what happens when Erdogan doesn't get his own way - let alone when someone shoots down one of his planes. Erdogan dispatches terrorists disguised as refugees to conduct attacks against the nation that is standing in his way.
Being aware of this President Trump issued a number of executive orders temporarily pausing the flow of migrants - particularly refugees - from nations where Erdogan affiliated terror groups are known to operate. However fixated on the sanctuary city issue three Judges in San Francisco groundlessly imposed a restraining order on that pause.
Today President Trump was widely expected to issue a new executive order to nullify those San Fransisco Judges actions. Obviously that has not happened because of the Washington Post and the US continues to be exposed.
Also today despite the US Democrats rantings Russia has moved to put in place a more durable solution to the Garvaghy Road standoff.
Russia has brokered an agreement that has seen the SDF hand its positions around Arima to Syrian forces. This means that if Erdogan wants to launch another attack on Manbij he will have to fight his way through the Syrian forces in what will be a clear act of illegal, aggressive war.
So basically US troops in Manbij are currently not being protected by the US government but by the Syrian government backed by the Russian government.
I think the message is that you can rant and rave against the Russians all you like. But the Russians are going to make you look foolish.
20:35 on 2/3/17 (UK date).
Key to the defeat of the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) and associated groups is the Garvaghy Road area of northern Syria.
This area of Syria's northern border with Turkey stretches roughly 100km (60 miles) between the towns of Azaz/Kilis in the west and the Euphrates River in the east. On either side it is bordered by the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) who are backed by the US-led coalition - Combined Joint Task Force: Operation Inherent Resolve (CJTFOIR).
To the west the SDF have established a de facto safe-haven known as the Afrin Canton whilst to the east the SDF have established a much larger de facto safe-haven known as Shangri-La.
On August 24th 2016 (24/8/16) Turkish President/Prime Minister/Emperor Recep Tayyip Erdogan sent regular Turkish forces to illegally invade and occupy the Garvaghy Road area. This was done specifically to prevent the SDF from linking Shangri-La and the Afrin Canton cutting ISIL's supply lines with Turkey in the process.
Since November 2016 the focus of Erdogan's operations within the Garvaghy Road area has been the town of al-Bab. This sits around 40km (24 miles) south of the Turkish border, 35km (20 miles) north-east of Aleppo City and 50km (30 miles) south-west of Manbij - the SDF's most advanced position just inside Garvaghy Road.
Last Friday (24/2/17) Erdogan's forces captured al-Bab. Since then Erdogan has become increasingly aggressive making a series of highly dangerous moves;
On Sunday (26/2/17) Erdogan's allies ISIL launched a Vehicle Borne Improvised Explosive Device (VBIED) attack against a convoy of US Special Operations Forces (SOF's) who are embedded with the SDF. The attack occurred around 35km (20 miles) south of the city of Kobane where US SOF's have one of their main operations bases. Fortunately no US troops were killed on injured in the attack.
On Monday (27/2/17) Erdogan's forces attacked Syria forces at Tedef - 1km (06 miles) south of al-Bab - killing 22. This is the most serious example of direct combat between Syria as a nation state and Turkey as an invading state so far in this six year war.
On Tuesday (28/2/17) Erdogan declared that his forces will be attacking the SDF and the US SOF's embedded with them at Manbij. This prompted US Central Command (CENTCOM) to Tweet out pictures of female SDF fighters alongside captions such as; "Ready For Battle."
Yesterday (1/3/17) Turkish jets under Erdogan's command conducted airstrikes against SDF positions at Tal Rifat. This sits around 13km (8 miles) south of Azaz and marks the boundary between Garvaghy Road and the Afrin Canton de facto safe-haven.
Those airstrikes were followed up in the afternoon with more airstrikes against SDF positions at Manbij. Those Erdogan ordered airstrikes appear to have been coordinated in support of ISIL group operation against the town.
I ended my post yesterday (1/3/17) by saying that we were awaiting a response from CJTFOIR.
It was around two hours after that post that we got that response from CJTFOIR. They simply blamed the Russians.
In a routine press conference CJTFOIR's US Lt. General Townsend announced that Russian and Syrian aircraft had attacked SDF positions thinking they were ISIL positions.
Although he gave no specific location Lt. Gen Townsend said they had occurred in the vicinity of Manbij and around 30km (18 miles) from where US SOF's were located. He went on to explain that the US had contacted Russia via the deconfliction hotline that exists between the two nations and the airstrikes stopped. Lt. Gen Townsend had no comment on the Tal Rifat strikes.
Obviously I was following events in and around Manbij extremely closely yesterday. As such I can assure you that the airstrikes occurred around the small town of Arima which sits around 20km (12 miles) south-west of Manbij and around 20km (12 miles) north-east of al-Bab along the M4 Motorway.
I can also assure you that they were carried out by F-16 fighter/multi-role jets.
If you are familiar with different types of warplanes which the people in northern Syria are F-16's look and sound extremely different from the Su-24's, Su-27's and Su-30's that are used by the Russian and Syrian airforces. For example the F-16 is a single engined aircraft while all the Su's are twin engined. The F-16 has a single tail while the Su-27's and Su-30's in particular have twin tails and a very distinctive, almost crick in their neck.
The airstrikes were also accompanied by artillery strikes from Erdogan's forces located in and around al-Bab.
So the only two things about Lt. Gen Townsend's account was that the strikes came close to killing US SOF's and the only way that CJTFOIR could stop them was by contacting Russia to contact Turkey under the Astana ceasefire mechanism.
Obviously having saved US troops from attack by Erdogan's forces the Russians are not happy about being blamed for the attack. However that seems to be exactly the point.
If CJTFOIR wanted to protect US troops in Manbij or elsewhere from attacks by Erdogan's aircraft they could do so quite easily. They would simply deploy the Avenger weapons system which is essentially a battery of Stinger anti-aircraft missiles mounted on the back of a Humvee. I gather protesters at the Dakota Access Pipeline site are extremely familiar with this weapons system.
However one NATO member shooting down the aircraft of another NATO member is likely to be extremely politically sensitive. Looking at the current anti-Russian rhetoric within US politics Erdogan has got to be calculating that there is no way that US President Trump would dare shoot down ISIL's airforce even if it is attacking US troops.
After all what caused the breakdown in US-Russian relations between the 2009 "Re-set" and now is the 2011 rise of ISIL. In short Russia opposes ISIL while US Democrats support them. So the US Democrats anti-Russian hysteria is actually what they view as a publicly acceptable expression of their support for ISIL.
Yesterday was something of a busy day for the Russia issue within US politics.
Firstly the bipartisan House of Representatives intelligence committee approved an investigation by themselves into links between Russia and President Trump's election campaign. These of course are the allegations that the New York Times reported on February 23rd (23/2/17) have already been completely dismissed as untrue by the FBI.
Secondly the US broadcaster that has become known as the "Clinton News Network" (CNN) held a televised Town Hall-style event with the Republican Senators and close friends John McCain and Lindsey Graham - two very vocal critics of President Trump.
Senator McCain in particular is someone that I used to have a lot of respect for. In fact I even endorsed him for President in 2008 against Barack Obama. However since that defeat McCain seems to have wandered off into his dotage.
Since at least 2013 McCain has been a vocal supporter and frequent visitor to a number of Erdogan-backed, ISIL affiliated armed groups in northern Syria. Particularly the Northern Storm Brigade out of Azaz. They now fight as part of Erdogan's United Turkmen Army (UTA) within Garvaghy Road. In short John McCain is friends with the people who've just been shooting at US troops.
As recently as January 2017 Sen McCain has been visiting with armed groups inside the former Ukraine. This visit in particular seems to have given actual World War Two Nazis the confidence to launch an attack against a railway line and then the eastern city of Avdiivka in complete violation of the Minsk Protocol.
So when it comes to Russia John McCain has started to remind me of the Madame Fanny La Fan character from the British sitcom "Allo Allo." This senile old biddy would lie in bed all day until someone mentioned the Germans and she would spit on the floor in disgust.
It would seem I'm not the only one starting to think that way. Last Thursday (23/2/17) the US' SOF's based in Kobane brought John McCain over on a special visit. The purpose seemed to be to force him to look in the eye each person that he is trying to get killed.
As such Lt. Gen Townsend's comments yesterday seemed to be a little reminder to US politicians - particularly Republicans - that the US is currently relying on Russia to protect US troops and by extension US civilians from ISIL and their backer Erdogan. As such it seems unwise to berate Russia to the point they're no longer prepared to do the US this massive favour.
To put it more explicitly; Ideally everyone would prefer it if members of the US Congress didn't make up lies to play their grubby little games. However pragmatically they can be free to lie as much as they like but they'd better steer clear of the lies about Russia. After all this is reality.
Given his 23 years of military service and two years on the Senate Armed Services Committee you would think Senator McCain would be better placed than most to pick up on that sort of hint.
At around 18:15 on 2/3/17 (UK date) I have much more to add after dinner.
Edited at around 19:40 on 2/3/17 (UK date) to add;
In today's edition the Hillary Clinton endorsing Washington Post newspaper decided to firmly nail their colours to the mast.
They reported details of US Attorney General Jeff Sessions contacts with Russia during the election campaign. Specifically that he had attended a party that was also attended by the Russian Ambassador to the US - Segei Kislyak and in his role as a member of the Senate Armed Services Committee had met with Kislyak in September 2016.
Under the 1961 Vienna Convention on Diplomatic Relations this is exactly the point of an Ambassador. Regardless of what country they're from or what country they're in the job of an Ambassador is to talk to members of the host government or candidates for election to help understand their position and put forward their own government's position.
The role of Ambassador's is particularly important between nations that don't like each other. There they are often the only form of communication between nations.
I think probably the most famous example of this from US history was the so-called "14-part message" of December 7th 1941 that was sent via the Japanese Ambassador to the US warning that war had been declared and the Pearl Harbour attack was imminent. The failure of the Ambassador to make timely contact with US government officials remains an issue of great controversy to this day.
Of course if the US wants to break with several hundred years of diplomatic convention and stop an Ambassador from a certain nation having contact with members of it's government it is free to expel that Ambassador from the country.
However to put things in perspective I think I should point out that even after Pearl Harbour the US did not expel the Japanese Ambassador. Nor did they expel various Ambassadors of the Soviet Union during the Cold War. Not even during the Cuban Missile Crisis in which Anatoly Dobrynin played a vital role in preventing a nuclear holocaust.
In choosing to publish their frankly non-story today the Washington Post seem to have intentionally timed their move to give succour to Erdogan in the Garvaghy Road standoff.
From experience we know exactly what happens when Erdogan doesn't get his own way - let alone when someone shoots down one of his planes. Erdogan dispatches terrorists disguised as refugees to conduct attacks against the nation that is standing in his way.
Being aware of this President Trump issued a number of executive orders temporarily pausing the flow of migrants - particularly refugees - from nations where Erdogan affiliated terror groups are known to operate. However fixated on the sanctuary city issue three Judges in San Francisco groundlessly imposed a restraining order on that pause.
Today President Trump was widely expected to issue a new executive order to nullify those San Fransisco Judges actions. Obviously that has not happened because of the Washington Post and the US continues to be exposed.
Also today despite the US Democrats rantings Russia has moved to put in place a more durable solution to the Garvaghy Road standoff.
Russia has brokered an agreement that has seen the SDF hand its positions around Arima to Syrian forces. This means that if Erdogan wants to launch another attack on Manbij he will have to fight his way through the Syrian forces in what will be a clear act of illegal, aggressive war.
So basically US troops in Manbij are currently not being protected by the US government but by the Syrian government backed by the Russian government.
I think the message is that you can rant and rave against the Russians all you like. But the Russians are going to make you look foolish.
20:35 on 2/3/17 (UK date).
Wednesday, 1 March 2017
Operation Featherweight: Month 32, Week 2, Day 3.
On Sunday February 19th (19/2/17) an operation was launched to liberate the western side of the northern Iraqi city of Mosul from the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL). Mosul has acted as ISIL's de facto capital in Iraq since the summer of 2014.
This represents the latest phase in an operation to liberate all of Mosul that began on October 17th 2016 (17/10/16). By January 25th (25/1/17) the operation had succeeded in liberating all of the eastern half of Mosul from ISIL.
The operation is being supported by the Iraqi Kurdish Peshmerga, the Iraqi Popular Mobilisation Forces (PMF) militias and the US-led coalition - Combined Joint Task Force: Operation Inherent Resolve (CJTFOIR). However as with the liberation of eastern Mosul the liberation of western Mosul is being led by the Iraqi Security Forces (ISF).
On Thursday February 23rd (23/2/17) the ISF launched a complex manoeuvre to simultaneously liberate Mosul International Airport and the Ghazlani military base. These sit side-by-side at the southern most tip of western Mosul. At the same time the ISF launched an operation to liberate the Tal al-Rayyan neighbourhood. This sits directly north-west of the Ghazlani military base.
By Friday February 24th (24/2/17) the ISF had succeeded in liberating both the airport and the military base. From the airport the ISF managed to push on into the Hay al-Tayaran neighbourhood which sits directly north of the airport. The ISF also succeeded in liberating the Tal al-Rayyan neighbourhood and push on into the Hay al-Mamum neighbourhood which sits directly north-east to the Tal al-Rayyan neighbourhood and north-west of the military base.
On Sunday February 26th (26/2/17) the ISF had succeeded in fully liberating both the Hal al-Tayaran and Hal al-Rayyan neighbourhood. This placed the Wadi al-Hajar neighbourhood which sits between the al-Tayaran and al-Rayyan neighbourhoods directly north of the Ghazlani base under siege. The ISF also pushed eastwards from the al-Tayaran neighbourhood towards the al-Jawsaq neighbourhood. This sits directly on the banks of the Tigris River.
By Monday February 27th (27/2/17) the ISF had advanced far enough into the al-Jawsaq neighbourhood to secure control of the western entrance to Mosul's so-called "Fourth Bridge" across the Tigris. With the eastern entrance to the Fourth Bridge being secured by the ISF back on January 9th (9/1/17) this gives the ISF full control over one of five bridges dividing east and west Mosul. The ISF are already in control of the eastern entrances to the other four bridges although have been disabled by CJTFOIR airstrikes.
Also on Monday (27/2/17) the ISF began the process of liberating the Wadi al-Hajar neighbourhood. This was completed yesterday (28/2/17) as was the ISF fully liberating the al-Jawsaq neighbourhood.
As a result of these gains just 7 days after launching their operation into western Mosul proper the ISF now control everything south of the Fourth Bridge to the al-Sawas roundabout road. On top of Mosul International Airport, the Ghazlani military base and those four neighbourhoods the ISF also control the three neighbourhoods that run south-west of the al-Sawas roundabout.
To the west of Mosul the PMF have continued to tighten the noose on the city from the Ayn Nasr - Tal Afar Airport line they established on November 16th 2016 (16/11/17). Assisted by the ISF's 9th Army Division yesterday the succeeded in liberating the village of Khubirat Atshana which sits around 4km (2.5 miles) south of the town of Badush.
The town of Badush itself sits around 10km (6 miles) north-west of Mosul just north of the H1 Highway to Tal Afar and then Syria and just south of the Tigris River. Today (1/3/17) the PMF and the ISF succeeded in taking control of the H1 Highway south of Badush cutting off ISIL's last formal route between Mosul and Tal Afar. The ISF have since launched an operation to liberate Badush prison which sits just north of the road and just south of the town.
The main area for concern in the fight against the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) remains the Garvaghy Road area of northern Syria.
This area of Syria's northern border with Turkey stretches roughly 100km (60 miles) between the towns of Azaz/Kilis in the west and the Euphrates River in the east. On either side it is bordered by the CJTFOIR-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF/QSD). To the west the SDF have established a de facto safe-haven known as the Afrin Canton whilst to the east the SDF have established a much larger de facto safe-haven known as Shangri-La.
On August 24th 2016 (24/8/16) Turkish President/Prime Minister/Emperor Recep Tayyip Erdogan sent regular Turkish forces to illegally invade and occupy the Garvaghy Road area. This was done specifically to prevent the SDF from linking Shangri-La and the Afrin Canton cutting ISIL's supply lines with Turkey in the process.
Since November 2016 the focus of Erdogan's operations within the Garvaghy Road area has been the town of al-Bab. This sits around 40km (24 miles) south of the Turkish border, 35km (20 miles) north-east of Aleppo City and 50km (30 miles) south-west of Manbij - the SDF's most advanced position just inside Garvaghy Road.
Last Friday (24/2/17) Erdogan's forces captured al-Bab. We are now waiting to see whether Erdogan's forces will withdraw from Syria, advance south along the M4 Motorway to formally join forces with ISIL in their de facto capital Raqqa or attack the SDF in Manbij.
Over the weekend it has started to seem less likely that Erdogan will withdraw his forces as he has made a series of increasingly aggressive moves. On Sunday (26/2/17) a train carrying 22 Turkish military vehicles and troops to crew them made its was to the Turkish city of Gaziantep which is where Erdogan's operations in Garvaghy Road are staged from.
Also on Sunday (26/2/17) Erdogan's allies ISIL launched a Vehicle Borne Improvised Explosive Device (VBIED) attack against a convoy of US Special Operations Forces (SOF's) who are embedded with the SDF. The attack occurred around 35km (20 miles) south of the city of Kobani where US SOF's have one of their main operations bases. Fortunately no US troops were killed on injured in the attack.
Between Erdogan's forces in al-Bab and their ISIL allies in Raqqa to the south you have Syrian forces. Due to the proximity between the Syrian forces and Erdogan's invasion force in early February Russia brokered a security line of demarcation between the two sides. Russia had to enforce this security line on February 9th (9/2/17) by conducting airstrikes against Erdogan's forces when they violated the line.
On Sunday (26/2/17) those Syrian forces liberated the village of Tedef from ISIL. Tedef sits around 1km (0.6 miles) south of al-Bab and controls the M4 junction between al-Bab and Raqqa.
On Monday (27/2/17) Erdogan's forces again violated the security line attacking Syria forces at Tedef killing 22. This is the most serious example of direct combat between Syria as a nation state and Turkey as an invading state so far in this six year war.
Perhaps chastened by a February 20th (20/2/17) Turkish airstrike that killed four Russian soldiers near the Syrian city of Homs Russia does not yet appear to have punished Erdogan for Monday's aggression.
Despite Russia's apparent lack of a response Erdogan changed his tune yesterday (28/2/17). Before boarding a flight to Pakistan Erdogan declared that his forces will be attacking the SDF and the US SOF's embedded with them at Manbij.
This prompted US Central Command (CENTCOM) to Tweet out pictures of female SDF fighters alongside captions such as; "Ready For Battle."
This war of words does not seem to have deterred Erdogan any. Today Turkish jets under Erdogan's command conducted airstrikes against SDF positions at Tal Rifat. This sits around 13km (8 miles) south of Azaz and marks the boundary between Garvaghy Road and the Afrin Canton de facto safe-haven.
Erdogan's attacks against Tal Rifat have been followed up this afternoon with more airstrikes against SDF positions at Manbij. Those Erdogan ordered airstrikes appear to have been coordinated in support of ISIL group operation against the town. As I write the SDF are in the process of fighting them off.
While the fighting continues we are awaiting a response from CJTFOIR - the US-led coalition.
17:50 on 1/3/17 (UK date).
This represents the latest phase in an operation to liberate all of Mosul that began on October 17th 2016 (17/10/16). By January 25th (25/1/17) the operation had succeeded in liberating all of the eastern half of Mosul from ISIL.
The operation is being supported by the Iraqi Kurdish Peshmerga, the Iraqi Popular Mobilisation Forces (PMF) militias and the US-led coalition - Combined Joint Task Force: Operation Inherent Resolve (CJTFOIR). However as with the liberation of eastern Mosul the liberation of western Mosul is being led by the Iraqi Security Forces (ISF).
On Thursday February 23rd (23/2/17) the ISF launched a complex manoeuvre to simultaneously liberate Mosul International Airport and the Ghazlani military base. These sit side-by-side at the southern most tip of western Mosul. At the same time the ISF launched an operation to liberate the Tal al-Rayyan neighbourhood. This sits directly north-west of the Ghazlani military base.
By Friday February 24th (24/2/17) the ISF had succeeded in liberating both the airport and the military base. From the airport the ISF managed to push on into the Hay al-Tayaran neighbourhood which sits directly north of the airport. The ISF also succeeded in liberating the Tal al-Rayyan neighbourhood and push on into the Hay al-Mamum neighbourhood which sits directly north-east to the Tal al-Rayyan neighbourhood and north-west of the military base.
On Sunday February 26th (26/2/17) the ISF had succeeded in fully liberating both the Hal al-Tayaran and Hal al-Rayyan neighbourhood. This placed the Wadi al-Hajar neighbourhood which sits between the al-Tayaran and al-Rayyan neighbourhoods directly north of the Ghazlani base under siege. The ISF also pushed eastwards from the al-Tayaran neighbourhood towards the al-Jawsaq neighbourhood. This sits directly on the banks of the Tigris River.
By Monday February 27th (27/2/17) the ISF had advanced far enough into the al-Jawsaq neighbourhood to secure control of the western entrance to Mosul's so-called "Fourth Bridge" across the Tigris. With the eastern entrance to the Fourth Bridge being secured by the ISF back on January 9th (9/1/17) this gives the ISF full control over one of five bridges dividing east and west Mosul. The ISF are already in control of the eastern entrances to the other four bridges although have been disabled by CJTFOIR airstrikes.
Also on Monday (27/2/17) the ISF began the process of liberating the Wadi al-Hajar neighbourhood. This was completed yesterday (28/2/17) as was the ISF fully liberating the al-Jawsaq neighbourhood.
As a result of these gains just 7 days after launching their operation into western Mosul proper the ISF now control everything south of the Fourth Bridge to the al-Sawas roundabout road. On top of Mosul International Airport, the Ghazlani military base and those four neighbourhoods the ISF also control the three neighbourhoods that run south-west of the al-Sawas roundabout.
To the west of Mosul the PMF have continued to tighten the noose on the city from the Ayn Nasr - Tal Afar Airport line they established on November 16th 2016 (16/11/17). Assisted by the ISF's 9th Army Division yesterday the succeeded in liberating the village of Khubirat Atshana which sits around 4km (2.5 miles) south of the town of Badush.
The town of Badush itself sits around 10km (6 miles) north-west of Mosul just north of the H1 Highway to Tal Afar and then Syria and just south of the Tigris River. Today (1/3/17) the PMF and the ISF succeeded in taking control of the H1 Highway south of Badush cutting off ISIL's last formal route between Mosul and Tal Afar. The ISF have since launched an operation to liberate Badush prison which sits just north of the road and just south of the town.
The main area for concern in the fight against the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) remains the Garvaghy Road area of northern Syria.
This area of Syria's northern border with Turkey stretches roughly 100km (60 miles) between the towns of Azaz/Kilis in the west and the Euphrates River in the east. On either side it is bordered by the CJTFOIR-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF/QSD). To the west the SDF have established a de facto safe-haven known as the Afrin Canton whilst to the east the SDF have established a much larger de facto safe-haven known as Shangri-La.
On August 24th 2016 (24/8/16) Turkish President/Prime Minister/Emperor Recep Tayyip Erdogan sent regular Turkish forces to illegally invade and occupy the Garvaghy Road area. This was done specifically to prevent the SDF from linking Shangri-La and the Afrin Canton cutting ISIL's supply lines with Turkey in the process.
Since November 2016 the focus of Erdogan's operations within the Garvaghy Road area has been the town of al-Bab. This sits around 40km (24 miles) south of the Turkish border, 35km (20 miles) north-east of Aleppo City and 50km (30 miles) south-west of Manbij - the SDF's most advanced position just inside Garvaghy Road.
Last Friday (24/2/17) Erdogan's forces captured al-Bab. We are now waiting to see whether Erdogan's forces will withdraw from Syria, advance south along the M4 Motorway to formally join forces with ISIL in their de facto capital Raqqa or attack the SDF in Manbij.
Over the weekend it has started to seem less likely that Erdogan will withdraw his forces as he has made a series of increasingly aggressive moves. On Sunday (26/2/17) a train carrying 22 Turkish military vehicles and troops to crew them made its was to the Turkish city of Gaziantep which is where Erdogan's operations in Garvaghy Road are staged from.
Also on Sunday (26/2/17) Erdogan's allies ISIL launched a Vehicle Borne Improvised Explosive Device (VBIED) attack against a convoy of US Special Operations Forces (SOF's) who are embedded with the SDF. The attack occurred around 35km (20 miles) south of the city of Kobani where US SOF's have one of their main operations bases. Fortunately no US troops were killed on injured in the attack.
Between Erdogan's forces in al-Bab and their ISIL allies in Raqqa to the south you have Syrian forces. Due to the proximity between the Syrian forces and Erdogan's invasion force in early February Russia brokered a security line of demarcation between the two sides. Russia had to enforce this security line on February 9th (9/2/17) by conducting airstrikes against Erdogan's forces when they violated the line.
On Sunday (26/2/17) those Syrian forces liberated the village of Tedef from ISIL. Tedef sits around 1km (0.6 miles) south of al-Bab and controls the M4 junction between al-Bab and Raqqa.
On Monday (27/2/17) Erdogan's forces again violated the security line attacking Syria forces at Tedef killing 22. This is the most serious example of direct combat between Syria as a nation state and Turkey as an invading state so far in this six year war.
Perhaps chastened by a February 20th (20/2/17) Turkish airstrike that killed four Russian soldiers near the Syrian city of Homs Russia does not yet appear to have punished Erdogan for Monday's aggression.
Despite Russia's apparent lack of a response Erdogan changed his tune yesterday (28/2/17). Before boarding a flight to Pakistan Erdogan declared that his forces will be attacking the SDF and the US SOF's embedded with them at Manbij.
This prompted US Central Command (CENTCOM) to Tweet out pictures of female SDF fighters alongside captions such as; "Ready For Battle."
This war of words does not seem to have deterred Erdogan any. Today Turkish jets under Erdogan's command conducted airstrikes against SDF positions at Tal Rifat. This sits around 13km (8 miles) south of Azaz and marks the boundary between Garvaghy Road and the Afrin Canton de facto safe-haven.
Erdogan's attacks against Tal Rifat have been followed up this afternoon with more airstrikes against SDF positions at Manbij. Those Erdogan ordered airstrikes appear to have been coordinated in support of ISIL group operation against the town. As I write the SDF are in the process of fighting them off.
While the fighting continues we are awaiting a response from CJTFOIR - the US-led coalition.
17:50 on 1/3/17 (UK date).
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