Operation Featherweight: Month 31, Week 2, Day 3.

On Tuesday January 24th 2017 (24/1/17) the eastern half of the northern Iraqi city of Mosul was liberated from the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL). Since the summer of 2014 Mosul had served as ISIL's de facto capital in Iraq.

This came just eight days after ISIL also lost control of some 3,200kmsq (1,920milesq) to the north and west of Raqqa. ISIL's de facto capital in Syria. 

For any group or entity claiming to be a nation state this rapid loss of territory would be highly embarrassing. That is particularly true of ISIL because rather like Nazi Germany their nihilistic ideology is defined by their need to constantly expand and constantly destroy. In fact the group's motto is "Maintain and Expand." 

So in order to distract their supporters from this vast loss and contraction ISIL have responded by unleashing another orgy of violence.

On December 11th 2016 (11/12/16) ISIL launched an operation to capture the city of Palmyra which sits in central Syria roughly 220km (130 miles) south of Raqqa and 300km (180 miles) west of Syria's border with Iraq. 

Initially this was done in an effort to assist ISIL's allies the Army of Conquest/Jaish al-Fatah (JAF) who at the time were being ousted from the eastern half of Aleppo City. This attempt to split the forces of Syria and their Russian backers failed with Aleppo City being fully liberated on December 12th 2016 (12/12/16). However ISIL did succeed in capturing Palmyra.

On January 19th 2017 (19/1/17) ISIL responded to its mounting losses in both Syria and Iraq by publicly murdering 12 people - a mix of Syrian soldiers and anti-Syrian government fighters that ISIL consider too moderate - within Palmyra's ancient amphitheatre. On January 20th 2017 (20/1/17) ISIL destroyed part of the amphitheatre itself in an attempt to erase any remnant of any ideology but their own from the earth.

On January 17th 2017 (17/1/17) ISIL launched a fresh offensive against the city of Deir-ez-Zour.

Deir-ez-Zour has always been one of Syria's more complex locations. It sits within the Euphrates River basin some 150km (90 miles) south-west of Raqqa and 160km (95miles) north-west of Syria's border with Iraq. As such it is firmly within ISIL's heartlands and the oil from the Deir-ez-Zour oilfields has been a major source of revenue for ISIL via their Turkish smuggling operation.

However despite the fact that they control all of the territory surrounding the city ISIL have never been able to fully occupy the city itself. Since roughly January 2016 ISIL have controlled a quarter of the city - the Hamidiyah neighbourhood - up to the H4 Highway road as it runs through the city. 

The Syrian government has maintained control of the remaining three quarters of the city. Crucially the Syrian government have also maintained control of both Deir-ez-Zour airport and the H4 road running between the airport and the sections of the city under Syrian control. This has allowed the Syrian government to continue to supply both the soldiers and civilians trapped in the city. 

You may remember that on September 16th 2016 (16/9/16) aircraft from the US-led coalition - Combined Joint Task Force: Operation Inherent Resolve (CJTFOIR) - conducted airstrikes against Syrian positions close to Deir-ez-Zour. This allowed ISIL to briefly seize control of a strategic hill overlooking the airport. It also prompted Denmark to withdraw from CJTFOIR in protest against then US President Barack Obama's leadership.

On January 17th (17/1/17) ISIL pushed out of the Hamidiyah neighbourhood to seize control to the sprawling Deir-ez-Zour graveyard. In the process they seized control of the H4 road to the airport. This cut the Syrian forces off from re-supply raising a very real concern that the entire city would soon be overrun by ISIL. 

It also stopped the UN's World Food Program (WFP) from using the airport to deliver vital food aid to the city's population of around 157,000 civilians. However with ISIL fighters closing in on them those civilians are probably more worried about being raped and murdered than having time to starve to death.

I have to say that from a strategic perspective ISIL's attempts to capture Deir-ez-Zour city have baffled me. 

With poor diplomatic relations going back some 40 years even if the US does repair its relationship with Russia it is extremely unlikely that CJTFOIR will be directly  helping Syria any time soon. If CJTFOIR does start to back the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) to defeat ISIL Turkish President/Prime Minister/Emperor Recep Tayyip Erdogan will point to the failure to attack the Syrian government forces as evidence of SDF collaboration in an effort to rally support for ISIL.

So I would have thought that ISIL would want to keep the Syrian government in control of Deir-ez-Zour city as a sort of protection against CJTFOIR and the SDF. However ISIL have always been so strategically incompetent the question is really why the hell they still exist nearly two and half years into this war.

The situation in the rest of Syria has been dominated by the talks held in Astana, Kazakhstan on January 23rd (23/1/17) and January 24th (24/1/17). Those talks themselves have been dominated by the situation in and around Wadi Barada and Ayn al-Fijeh.

Both Wadi Barada and Ayn al-Fijeh sit around 10km (6 miles) north-west of the Syrian capital Damascus. They provide the majority of Damascus' water supply. 

On December 22nd 2016 (22/12/16) the Army of Conquest which occupies the area poisoned the water supply and blew up the pumping station cutting off the water supply to Damascus' some 1.7 million civilian residents. This prompted fierce fighting despite the December 29th ceasefire (29/12/16) as Syrian forces battled to restore the water supply.

On January 13th 2017 (13/1/17) a deal was struck that would see the Army of Conquest surrender the area in return for safe-passage to the area surrounding Idlib City which has been designated; "The Sudetenland." 

On January 15th (15/1/17) gunmen from the Islamic Movement of the Freemen of the Levant/Harakat Ahrar ash-Sham al-Islamiyya (Ahrar al-Sham) assassinated a retired Brigadier General and local resident who was brokering the deal. 

Ahrar al-Sham's intention was to cause the deal to collapse and they succeeded with fighting resuming. Ahrar al-Sham then used the renewed fighting which they had caused as an excuse to boycott the Astana talks.

The main outcome of the Astana talks is that Russia, Turkey and Iran have agreed a mechanism to monitor the December 29th ceasefire going forward. However in practical terms this really only means that the three have agreed to continue arguing over what and what doesn't constitute a ceasefire violation with Russia acting as the final arbiter. 

At 13:05 on 30/1/17 (UK date) I've much more to add. But first coffee.

Edited at around 15:20 on 30/1/17 (UK date) to add; 

Delegates at the Astana talks also pledged to seperate ISIL and The Base/Al Qaeda affiliate The Support Front/Jabhat al-Nusra (ANF) from what were termed armed opposition groups. To this end the Free Syrian Army (FSA) announced that they would now fight against their Support Front.

The problem with this is that the Free Syrian Army doesn't exist and has never really existed. As with the White Helmets who insist on calling themselves "Syrian Civil Defence" the FSA is really a propaganda term invented by foreign intelligence agencies. The purpose is to delegitimize the Syrian state in the hope of encouraging people to defect to this parallel state the foreign powers have created. Thus bringing down the Syrian President, Bashar al-Assad.

The hope was that this would be somewhat similar to what happened in Egypt back in 2011 and more recently in the Gambia. However because unlike the situation in those places the attempts to overthrow the Syrian government have been false it has failed.

In practical terms the FSA is nothing more than a catch all term for a vast - at last count around 7000 - disparate armed groups. These are groups are very small in size with the largest only being made up of around 150 fighters which the US military would consider company strength.

Some of these groups are made up of criminal gangs like MS-13 or the Steel City Gang in the US. Others are made up of extended families who in Arab societies tend to live together. Others are made up of local residents in a specific geographic area who are not related to each other. There is a vast array of political and religious ideology amongst these groups with some fighting as part of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) coalition and others fighting as part of the Army of Conquest coalition.

What holds the Army of Conquest coalition together are its three largest groups; The Support Front, Ahrar al-Sham and the United Turkmen Army (UTA). Sometimes referred to as the; "Syrian Turkmen Brigades" the UTA are Turkish irregular troops largely raised from the Grey Wolves - the paramilitary wing on the Turkish Nationalist Movement Party (MHP). However the MHP have now largely been absorbed by the Justice & Development Party (AKP).

The large Islamist groups within the Army of Conquest control the smaller groups in a number of ways. Part of it is ideological with some groups choosing to fight alongside Al Qaeda and Ahrar al-Sham because they share the same violent Islamist ideology. Bribery also plays a large part with the large Islamist groups offering food, money, weapons and other equipment to smaller groups to fight alongside them.

The main instrument of control the Islamist groups use though is violence. In short if one of the groups in an area controlled by the Army of Conquest refuse to join them Al Qaeda, Ahrar al-Sham or the UTA will simply kill them.

This has been a particular problem in the Sudetenland. On Tuesday January 24th (24/1/17) Al Qaeda launched an assault against the Army of Jihadist Fighters/Jaish al-Mujahideen which is ongoing. To give you an idea of how slanted the term; "moderate" has become in talking about Syria the Army of Jihadist Fighters are apparently not considered an Islamist Jihadi group.

Therefore my main concern behind Ahrar al-Sham urging the smaller groups to fight Al Qaeda is that they are trying to get their ally to wipe them out. That will leave Ahrar al-Sham in sole control of areas like Wadi Barada and Ayn al-Fijeh removing the possibility of a negotiated Army of Conquest withdrawal from the area.

It is also likely to be a political ruse. This is something that we've become familiar with particularly in the area of Syria's border with Turkey known as; "Garvaghy Road" throughout 2015. ISIL, Al Qaeda, Ahrar al-Sham and the UTA would regularly cycle control of towns like Marea and Cobanbey between themselves depending on which brand-name would best suit Erdogan's political objectives at the time.

Following the Astana talks events on the ground have dramatically picked up in pace.

Immediately following the Astana talks on January 24th (24/1/17) Russia helicoptered close to a hundred Syrian troops into Deir-ez-Zour. These reinforcements were almost immediately able to force ISIL from the cemetery area. They also re-established loose control over the H4 Highway re-opening the route to the airport.

By Saturday (28/1/17) Syrian forces were able to militarily defeat Ahrar al-Sham at Wadi Barada and Ayn al-Fijeh without Russian assistance. With Ahrar al-Sham defeated Syrian forces entered the area and the agreement that sees the smaller groups withdraw to the Sudetenland was restored. Despite heavy snow in the area that withdrawal is currently underway.

Within the Garvaghy Road area much of the recent focus has been on the town of al-Bab. This sits between Syrian positions in Aleppo City some 25km (15 miles) to the south-west and SDF positions in Manbij some 30km (18 miles) to the north-east. 

Since the start of December 2016 Erdogan has been trying to cycle control of al-Bab between ISIL and his invasion force - both regular and irregular. Erdogan has also made it quite clear that from al-Bab he then intends to attack SDF positions at Manbij.

On Saturday (28/1/17) Syrian forces - again without Russian support - advanced from Aleppo City to within 7km (4 miles) of al-Bab. This very much raises the possibility of the pretence of a popular uprising disappearing amid a direct confrontation between Syrian and Turkish regular forces. Such a confrontation would put Russia in an extremely difficult position. After all they can hardly conduct airstrikes in support of two sides that are fighting each other.

However in response to the Syrian advance Erdogan has announced that Turkish forces will withdraw from al-Bab once ISIL have left the town. The second part of the sentence sounds very much negotiable to me.

Also on Saturday (28/1/17) US President Donald Trump held a one hour telephone conversation with Russian President Vladimir Putin. At Erdogan's request the US was invited to the Astana talks. However with them taking place just three days after Trump's inauguration the US was not able to attend in person.

Amid these fast moving developments the big problem has been Britain. They of course were not invited to the Astana talks. So in protest have decided to throw themselves to the middle of the floor in a massive tantrum that they hope will force someone to take pity on them and explain what is going on.

This British effort really began with the door on one of my outbuildings being smashed in on the evening of Friday January 20th (20/1/17). As I explained at the time this was intended to encourage former Gambian President Yahya Jammeh to continue his occupation of the Presidential Palace in the hope that his supporters would come to defend him from what he would claim was a colonialist coup attempt.

Britain's thinking was the possibility of severe unrest in the Gambia would cast a long shadow over the Astana talks as we all tensely waited to see whether Jammeh would leave peacefully or a bloodbath would ensue. The tension was intended to peak on Tuesday January 24th (24/1/17) when the British Law Lords handed down their ruling in the Brexit case.

Jammeh of course stepped down peacefully in the evening of Saturday January 21st (21/1/17) removing a large part of Britain's plan. I of course would say that the Brexit element of the plan failed about an hour after the ruling was handed down. 

Despite these setbacks on Tuesday (24/1/17) morning the UK decided to press ahead by confirming a meeting between UK Prime Minister May and Erdogan in Turkey on Saturday January 28th (28/1/17). 

This would come just a day after Prime Minister May had been the first foreign leader to meet President Trump in America on Friday January 27th (27/1/17). 

That meeting had been confirmed on the day of Trump's inauguration - January 20th (20/1/17).   

At around 17:30 on 30/1/17 (UK date) I'll have to pick this up after dinner. 

Edited at around 19:35 on 30/1/17 (UK date) to try and sort out the ridiculously tiny font and add;

The centre piece of Prime Minister May's pilgrimage to Erdogan was the announcement of a GBP100million (USD125million) deal for BAE Systems to supply the Turkish airforce with next generation multi-role fighter aircraft.

On one level this sounds a strengthening of the alliance between the UK and Erdogan. However on another level it sounds like the UK warning Erdogan that he might suddenly need to replace his current fleet of fighter aircraft. Particularly if he keeps sending them to bomb anti-ISIL forces in both Syria and Iraq.

BAE Systems are of course synonymous with Saudi Arabia's current war against Yemen. There has even been talk in the British Parliament that members of the British Military whom BAE Systems have seconded to advise Saudi Arabia in that war could be prosecuted for crimes against humanity.

The Astana talks are of course not the only diplomatic process focused on Syria. There is also the UN sponsored process which are known as the; "Geneva Process." 

The Geneva process focuses on what is termed the; "High Negotiations Committee (HNC)." The HNC has been formed entirely by Saudi Arabia. Rather to prove the point both the HNC's President and spokesman are named "Riyad." As in the capital of Saudi Arabia. 

Despite having been selected by the Saudis to speak on behalf of the Syrian people the HNC don't appear to have spoken to any of the Syrian people. As a result the Astana process is focused less on the HNC and more on armed groups that are actually active within Syria. Quite how Saudi Arabia feels about that is obviously an interesting topic.

At around the time of OPEC's December 2016 meeting BAE Systems announced that it will no longer be supplying weapons to Saudi Arabia for use in its war against Yemen. Officially this is due to humanitarian concerns. Unofficially it is due to growing concerns that Saudi Arabia will no longer be able to pay for those weapons.

Saudi Arabia's economic fortunes seem to have been of great interest to Erdogan of late. 

For example there was the December 19th 2016 (19/12/16) assassination of the Russian Ambassador to Turkey. In carrying out this assassination Erdogan's personal police body guard - Mevlut Altintas - seemed to very closely resemble "Carlos the Jackal" as portrayed by Edgar Ramirez in the 2010 movie "Carlos." Carlos the Jackal's probably most famous attack was on the December 1975 OPEC meeting.

Then of course there was the January 1st 2017 (1/1/17) attack on the Reina nightclub in Istanbul. With 7 Saudis amongst the dead this built a bridge of communication between Erdogan and Saudi Arabia just as Saudi Arabia was being forced to convert from the Muslim Hijri calendar to the Gregorian calender as part of their austerity program.

Due to Erdogan's apparent desire to turn Turkey into a North Korea style pariah state the economic outlook for the nation is not good. In fact just on Friday (27/1/16) it had its debt rating cut to junk status. That would suggest the part of European Union (EU) membership that Erdogan is most keen on is a Greek-style bailout.

That poses of the obvious question of how Erdogan intends to settle what for him is a TRY473million bill with BAE Systems.

So in short by visiting Erdogan the UK was, in its usual inept style, trying to shake him down to find out what happened in Astana.

It turns out that the parties to the Astana talks did not respond to Britain's tantrum by taking pity on it. Instead they smacked it on the bum.

As expected in response to Britain's attempts to muscle in Russia dug its heels in. 

There was a meeting of the Geneva process which Britain is a party to scheduled for February 2nd (2/2/17). However Russia has now cancelled this. The UN has yet to accept that the meeting has been cancelled but no-one from the Astana process will be attending.

Russia then proceeded to do a victory lap around the UK.

On Friday (27/1/17) evening - hours before Prime Minister May's visit - the US actress and prospective Russian citizen Lindsay Lohan met with Erdogan and the notorious Bana al-Abed.

You may remember that Bana al-Abed is the 7 year old girl whose mother and father fight with Al Qaeda first in Aleppo City and now in the Sudetenland. As part of that war effort they frequently post on social media in their daughter's name. Curiously many in the western media have become enamoured with this Al Qaeda propaganda effort rather than calling it out as an undeniable war crime.

2016 was a year of many political surprises. However possibly the most surprising of all was Lindsay Lohan giving a running Twitter commentary on the results of Britain's June 23rd (23/6/16) Brexit referendum. This was so surprising because Lindsay Lohan is now generally considered to be a massive screw up.

Like many massive screw ups before her Lindsay Lohan has now decided to embrace Islam. Her thinking being that it will cure her of her rampant alcohol and drug abuse and the deep psychological problems that cause them. In that sense Lindsay Lohan is your typical ISIL fighter.

Lindsay Lohan seems particularly similar to Sally Jones the rather famous British ISIL fighter.

Sally Jones used to be married to Junaid Hussein until he came down with a nasty case of Hellfire. Together they have been extremely active in trying to recruit particularly English speakers to join and carry out terror attacks for ISIL.

It's widely believed that it was the couple's young son who appeared in a August 2016 ISIL video beheading Kurdish hostages. Entitled "The Nations Are Uniting Against You" this video was released in celebration of Erdogan's invasion of Garvaghy Road in support of ISIL.

Sally Jones even copied the promotional shots that Lindsay Lohan did for the 2010 movie "Machete" in which she posed in a Christian Nun's habit whilst wielding a gun.

It certainly seems then that Russia was questioning Britain's motives in sending Prime Minister May to meet with Erdogan. The best bit is that they got Erdogan to pose for the photo by telling him that it was support for his "Bigger Than Five" campaign to grant Turkey a permanent seat on the UN Security Council (UNSC).

Also on Saturday President Trump's executive order limiting immigration went into effect. I think this probably warrants a post of its own.

However I should make clear that it is not a Muslim ban. It notably excludes Egypt which is the most populous Arab Muslim nation and Indonesia which is the most populous Muslim nation. 

Instead it is a ban on travel from 7 nations. With the exception of Iran all of these nations are considered active warzones that US Citizens are strongly advised against travelling to.

It is also temporary being limited to 90 days. This is 90 days less than the similar travel ban that then President Obama imposed in 2011. The purpose of the ban is to provide time for the US to review and fix their immigration security screening for all nations - not just the 7 that the ban applies to.

What I expect will happen is that in 90 days for existing visa and greencard holders everything will revert to just how it was. However for reasons you're unlikely to see in future people like the San Bernardino gunwoman Tashfeen Malik won't be granted entry to the US in order to carry out their attacks.

On the indefinite ban on Syrian refugees this was put into place at the same time that President Trump also issued an executive order instructing the US military to draw up a new strategy to fighting and defeating ISIL.

The central part of this new strategy looks likely to be empowering the Kurdish-led SDF to establish legally defined safe-havens within Syria. This will remove the need for Syrians to become refugees and will strike back hard against ISIL's efforts to ethnically cleanse what they consider to be the Levant region.

I must say that something has gone very wrong with western values if we now consider refugees to be a badge of pride rather than a stain on all our humanity. It's as if we've got to thinking that the Nazi Holocaust is somehow something to aspire to.

At around 20:55 on 30/1/17 (UK date) I will proof read this later and pick it up tomorrow.

22:55 on 30/1/17 (UK date). 

Edited at around 12:20 on 31/1/17 (UK date) to add;

Erdogan has of course long opposed the creation of first a People's Protection Units (YPG) and then SDF controlled safe-zone for refugees within Syria. 

As with every other time Erdogan doesn't get his way he has repeatedly responded by threating to flood the world and particularly Europe with terrorists disguised as refugees. Trump's executive orders on immigration certainly give Erdogan something to think about.

In fact if the Gambia was intended to cast a long shadow over the Astana talks with Trump's executive orders it must have felt as if the sky was falling in during Prime Minister May's visit to Turkey.

Shortly after Prime Minister May had left Turkey airlines flying from the UK were informed that the executive orders also applied to UK dual nationals from the 7 nations. That of course sent the message that Brits do not have an automatic right to visit the US and friendship is a two-way street.

However the list did not apply to the Islamic Republic of Pakistan's 188 million Muslims. Nor did it apply to the People's Republic of Bangladesh's 145 million Muslims. It didn't even apply to the Federal Republic of Nigeria's 77 million Muslims despite Nigeria arguably being as much of a warzone as Somalia or Sudan.

From a British perspective that was extremely fortunate. After all it is those countries that provide the majority of Britain's Muslim dual nationals. There were though a couple of high profile Brits who were caught up in the confusion.

For example there was Mo Farah - the Somali born Olympian. You may remember that Mo Farah was also heavily involved the doping scandal surrounding Nike's Oregon, US training facility. 

Essentially coaches at the Nike facility were pumping athletes full of performance enhancing drugs. Adding to the corruption the World Anti Doping Agency (WADA) were handing out blanket exemptions permitting Nike trained athletes to cheat at events such as the Olympics. Farah himself has admitted to taking steriods as part of the Nike doping scandal.

Also heavily involved in the Nike doping scandal was British Parliamentarian Sebastian Lord Coe. As a brand Ambassador for Nike Lord Coe abused his poisition as International Association of Athletics Federations (IAAF) President to award the 2021 World Athletics Championships to Nike's Oregon facility by disregarding the usual bidding process.

Lord Coe also used his role as IAAF President to attempt to ban Russia from the 2016 Summer Olympics. You remember - the ones that were spoilt by Erdogan's invasion of Syria.

Also caught up in the confusion was British Conservative MP for Stratford-Upon-Avon Nadhim Zahawi. 

Nadim Zahawi is extremely well known amongst those involved in the fight against ISIL and associated groups. An Iraqi Kurd by birth he has made frequent visits to the frontlines around Mosul. Particularly in the heady early days of the summer of 2014 he is pretty much personally responsible for all the military support that the UK has provided to the Iraqi Kurdish Peshmerga.

As such Nadhim Zahawi is likely to find it a lot easier to pass security checks to enter the US then many other members of the UK Parlimanent and particularly his Conservative Party.

For example Andrew Mitchell is neither a Muslim nor a dual national. However if he plans to travel to the US he is going to have a tough time explaining why he has provided material support to Al Qaeda and ISIL through the Parliamentary 'Friends' of Syria group.

Also during her visit to Turkey Prime Minister May announced that the UK share's Erdogan's concerns about Kurds. If that is the case then the UK is certainly in no position to argue that Nadhim Zahawi doesn't represent such a severe terror threat that he must be denied entry to the US.

Sunday (29/1/17) was spent with the UK Foreign Office in urgent discussion with their counterparts at the US State Department. After an agreement was reached that a very serious mistake had been made it turned out that the ban doesn't apply to UK dual nationals after all. Apparently a US official had just misread the situation.

In response to the realisation that they will have to choose between a special relationship with the US and a special relationship with ISIL the likes of Andrew Mitchell have thrown another little tantrum, starting a petition calling for Trump's right to visit the UK to revoked in retaliation. 

13:25 on 31/1/17 (UK date).      

   

Operation Featherweight: Month 31, Week 1, Day 6.

In yesterday's post I wrote about how the eastern side of the northern Iraqi city of Mosul had been liberated from the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL).

Today I'd just like to remind everyone that eastern Mosul has been liberated from ISIL.

The original plan for the liberation of Mosul was to leave the entire western side of the city undefended. The idea being to allow ISIL fighters to mount only a symbolic defence to the city while withdrawing the bulk of their forces to Raqqa - their de facto capital in Syria.

There were a great many flaws to this plan. However one of the most significant relates to this roughly 100km (60 mile) stretch of Syria's border with Turkey. Known as "Garvaghy Road" this stretches between Azaz/Kilis in the west and the Euphrates River in the east. Garvaghy Road functions as the main ISIL supply route between Raqqa and Turkey.

Therefore if ISIL fighters were left to flee Mosul for Raqqa they could just as easily flee Raqqa for Turkey From Turkey those ISIL fighters would then be free to travel to the rest of the World.

Directly to the north of Raqqa and to the east of Garvaghy Road you have this vast 12,000kmsq (7,200 mile) buffer/safe-zone controlled by the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF/QSD) - the most effective anti-ISIL force on the ground in Syria.

It turns out I have got rather bored of writing out; "the vast 12,000kmsq (7,200 mile) buffer/safe-zone controlled by the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF/QSD)" so I have decided to designate this area as; "Shangri-La" because it sounds a bit Cantonese-y.

Following what I gather was a bad tempered NATO meeting at the end of October 2016 the US attempted to solve the problem of Garvaghy Road by pressuring the SDF to launch an operation against Raqqa. The first phase of this operation was completed on November 25th 2016 (25/11/16) and saw the SDF advance from some 45km (27 miles) south from the town of Ayn Issa to within 25km (15 miles) north of Raqqa.

The second phase of the operation saw the SDF advance south along the banks of the Euphrates River towards Raqqa. This phase was completed on January 16th 2017 (16/1/17) with the SDF having advanced to within 8km (5 miles) of the Tabqa Dam.

Forming Lake Assad out of the Euphrates River the Tabqa Dam sits around 55km (33 miles) west of Raqqa. It forms the main crossing point of the Euphrates linking Raqqa with Garvaghy Road via the H4 Highway and the town of al-Bab.

Unlike in Mosul where the frontlines are clearly defined by roads and neighbourhoods in the area between Shangri-La and Raqqa the frontlines tend to be an invisible line running through the middle of a field. Therefore it seems I owe the SDF an apology.

In estimating the territory liberated on January 14th 2017 (14/1/17) I said that they'd liberated 113 farms and villages within a 1,200kmsq (720 milesq) area. Thus they'd increased the size of Shangri-La to 13,200kmsq (7,920 milesq). That is a significant underestimate of the SDF's achievement.

In fact the SDF had succeeded in liberating 197 farms and villages within a 3,200kmsq (1,920 milesq). This increased the size of Shangri-La to 15,200kmsq (9,120 milesq).

On August 25th 2016 (25/8/16) Turkish President/Prime Minister/Emperor Recep Tayyip Erdogan sent regular Turkish forces to invade and occupy Garvaghy Road. This was done specifically to prevent the SDF liberating the area and cutting off ISIL's supply lines with Turkey. Since November 2016 Erdogan's forces have been attempting to cycle control of al-Bab from ISIL.

As such I think it is fair to conclude that Erdogan very much opposes the SDF liberating Tabqa Dam cutting off the route between Raqqa and al-Bab.

On January 1st 2017 (1/1/17) Erdogan went even further by staging a terror attack against the Reina nightclub in the Turkish city of Istanbul. This was designed to invoke memories the June 12th 2016 (12/6/16) terror attack against the Pulse nightclub in the US city of Orlando. The intention being to call on the US to withdraw its support for the SDF in order to allow Erdogan's forces to invade and occupy Shangri-La.

On January 20th 2017 (20/1/17) Donald Trump replaced Barack Obama as US President.

On January 21st 2017 (21/1/17) the SDF backed by the US-led coalition - Combined Joint Task Force: Operation Inherent Resolve (CJTFOIR) - launched an operation to liberate the town of Suweydiya al-Kabirah. That operation was completed a day later.

Suweydiya al-Kabirah sits around 3km (2 miles) north-west of the Tabqa Dam. It's liberation is seen as vital for control of the Raqqa to Tabqa road which crosses the dam and the liberation of the dam itself. During the course of the operation a member of the SDF's Quinta Brigada international brigade sacrificed their life. He was Paolo Todd from Los Angeles, California.

Also on January 21st (21/1/17) it was reported by local sources that the US had established a new Special Operations Force (SOF) base close to the city of Hasakah within Shangri-La. This has since been denied by the US. However as a general rule when SOF's are involved you don't really believe anything until it has been officially denied. It is the involvement of US SOF's that has made it much harder for me to get accurate information out of the SDF.

Meanwhile Erdogan continues his efforts to annex Garvaghy Road as part of the new Ottoman Empire.

Since the August 25th (25/8/16) invasion Erdogan has focused his efforts on the town of Jarablus which sits on the western border of the Euphrates River. Initially Erdogan sent in Turkish doctors and nurses to establish Turkish hospitals in the town. This was followed by the building of religious schools to teach in the Turkish language.

On January 22nd (22/1/17) Jarablus saw the graduation of a what Erdogan claims is a Syrian police. Numbering some 450 they wear as their cap badges the Turkish flag and at their graduation ceremony proclaim their loyalty to Turkey and Erdogan personally by chanting;

"Long Live Turkey! Long Live Erdogan!" 

18:15 on 26/1/17 (UK date).

Operation Featherweight: Month 31, Week 1, Day 5.

Since October 2016 a combined Iraqi Security Force (ISF) and Iraqi Peshmerga force have been trying to liberate the northern Iraqi city of Mosul from the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL).

In my post last Wednesday (18/1/17) I said that the ISF were on the brink of fully liberating the eastern side of the city - the so-called Left Bank.

The ISF had succeeded in liberating all of the city up to the M80 Motorway which run parallel to the Tigris River up to the junction with the University Highway Road. This included three of the five bridges that cross the Tigris into western Mosul. This left ISIL in control of just the barely populated Ghabat neighbourhood which sits beyond the junction and the al-Arabi and Rashidiyah neighbourhoods at the very north of the eastern side of the city.

On Thursday (19/1/17) the ISF then confused everyone by moving to liberate the town of Tel Skuf. Technically not considered part of Mosul itself this sits around 11km (6.5 miles) north of the al-Arabi neighbourhood. The operation to liberate Tel Skuf was completed by the end of Thursday (19/1/17).

Liberating Tel Skuf is of course and essential part of liberating Mosul. In fact if the ISF had declared eastern Mosul liberated without liberating Tel Skuf I would have corrected them and instructed them to liberate the town. However suddenly diverting attention to a town outside of Mosul rather than the outstanding neighbourhoods did alter the momentum of the operation meaning the liberation of those neighbourhoods was delayed. 

They weren't though delayed for long. On Sunday (22/1/16) the ISF succeeded in liberating the al-Arabi neighbourhood. This left ISIL unable to defend the Ghabat neighbourhood which was liberated soon after along with the two remaining bridges. On Monday (23/1/17) the ISF succeeded in liberating the Rashidiyah neighbourhood.

Yesterday (24/1/17) Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi declared that eastern Mosul had been fully liberated.

Although the combat phase of operations in eastern Mosul is complete the ISF still need to conduct a consolidation phase in which they search the area to make sure it is truly free of ISIL fighters and any booby traps they may have left behind.

The fact that this phase has not yet being completed led to some of the problems we've seen yesterday and today. Essentially one or two ISIL fighters who've been hiding in buildings have suddenly emerged and started shooting. Although one or two fighters represent no real military threat while this is going on the street that building is on certainly doesn't seem liberated.

Even before the consolidation phase is completed the ISF can start planning the best way to approach liberating the western side of Mosul. This obviously puts me in a difficult position. After all I don't want to give ISIL an advantage by telling them what to expect.

The original plan for the liberation of Mosul of course focused on leaving the entire western side of the city undefended. The thinking being that this would allow ISIL slip back to Raqqa - their de facto capital in Syria - while only mounting a symbolic defence of Mosul.

The Popular Mobilisation Forces (PMF) who are a coalition of militias operating as part of the ISF almost immediately saw the flaw in this plan. By November 16th 2016 (16/11/16) they'd moved into positions at Tel Afar airport some 60km (35 miles) to the west of Mosul along the H47 Highway. The PMF are now keen to mount an assault on Tel Afar proper and Mosul from the west. This is certainly an option.

However throughout this operation has been hampered by Turkish President/Prime Minister/Emperor Recep Tayyip Erdogan.

Fearing a loss of Turkish influence in a part of Iraq he hopes to annex as part of a new Ottoman Empire Erdogan has long opposed any PMF role within the liberation of either Tel Afar or Mosul. Turkey maintains a military presence at the Bashiqa camp just to the north-east of Mosul and has amassed forces on the Turkish side of the border which Erdogan has threatened to use to prevent a PMF liberation of Tel Afar let alone Mosul.

Perhaps more importantly though the US-led coalition - Combined Joint Task Force: Operation Inherent Resolve (CJTFOIR) - has said that the operation to liberate the eastern part of Mosul has witnessed some of the toughest street fighting they have ever seen. Being even more densely packed with narrow, warren like streets fighting to liberate western Mosul is likely to be even tougher.

In that type of situation careful coordination between the forces on the ground is essential. Ideally what you want is a single force made up of highly disciplined troops with a clear chain of command all answerable to a single overall commander.

Therefore I would much prefer to see the PMF cede their positions to the west of Mosul to the ISF. This would allow the ISF to conduct the operation within Mosul while the PMF provide perimeter security in much the same way as the Peshmerga have done in eastern Mosul.

However I am aware that the ISF have sustained significant casualties in liberating eastern Mosul. Also while they work to liberate western Mosul the ISF will have to maintain a large deployment to maintain security in the east of the city. That is on top of having to maintain security across the rest of Iraq including in Anbar province where fighting continues around Qaim.

Plus although there is some time to pause and plan the next phase of the Mosul operation that is likely to only be a short window. I am not sure that the ISF will have enough time to redeploy a sizable force to the west of Mosul. Not least because they will have to fight their way through Tel Afar in order to even get to western Mosul.

Therefore as an absolute last resort I am happy for the PMF to participate in the Mosul operation. However they must do so under the command of the ISF possibly even with ISF commanders being embedded with units on the ground.

17:55 on 25/1/17 (UK date).

Operation Featherweight: Month 31, Week 1, Day 4.

It turns out it has been a full week since my last update on the fight against the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) and associated groups.

In that time there have been numerous developments within Syria. The effort to liberate the eastern coast - the left bank - of the northern Iraqi city of Mosul also seems to have progressed from a combat phase to a consolidation phase.

Unfortunately I have not been free to comment on those developments due to multi-party talks on the situation in Syria being held in Astana, Kazakhstan both yesterday (23/1/17) and today (24/1/17).

As it is currently around 20:15 in the evening and I've just got back from the pub a full update will have to wait until tomorrow. However I feel I do need to comment on Britain's role in the Astana talks.

Those talks are of course a follow up to talks that were originally scheduled to take place on December 27th 2016 (27/1/16).

Although they were forced forward to December 20th 2016 (20/1/16) the original plan was that they would coincide with my Christmas visit to see my lesbian mothers and the associated miscreants that make up my family. The hope being that the complexity of my domestic situation would exert pressure on all parties during the talks.

I think it is fair to say that Britain has been extremely unhappy that while I would be a party to the December 27th talks they would be excluded. So for this round of Astana talks Britain has gone to great lengths to try and muscle in on proceedings.

Rather appropriately this began with events between 19:00 and 19:25 (GMT) last Friday (20/1/17) when persons unknown smashed in a door on one of the outbuildings in my home.

This was intended to send the message that Britain's foreign intelligence service - MI6 - was trying to smash down the door of the Presidential Palace in the Gambian capital Banjul to evict Yahya Jammeh who was squatting there.

The hope being that this would provoke Jammah's supporters to the streets in an attempt to resist what he would call a colonialist coup. This would lead to a very tense three days while we waited to find out if Jammeh would stand and fight or leave as he'd agreed on January 23rd (23/1/17) - the first day of the Astana talks.

This pressure would peak today with the UK Law Lords releasing their judgement in the Brexit case. Although one of my mothers reads this type of Court ruling for fun for most people it is quite a lot to trawl through. Particularly when it's written in your second, third or possibly even fourth language.

Combining the two issues there is currently some debate within the UK Establishment over whether to use me in the Brexit negotiations in the same way that it attempted to use me in the Climate Change negotiations and Russia is attempting to use me in the Astana negotiations. You may have even got the impression that the Law Lords insisted on an Act of Parliament rather than a much simpler binding motion in an effort to delay proceedings until the ISIL situation is resolved.

Obviously I can't really comment on the Establishment's plans to use me in the Brexit negotiations. After all if you were asked if you wanted to commit yourself to another two years of robberies, shootings, hospitalisations, arrests and Court appearances how would you answer?

However I must say that Britain's approach to the Astana talks has been spectacularly unwise.

You only need to look at the December 25th 2016 (25/1/16) crash of RA-85572 to see that these Russian-led negotiations are borne out of frustration.

Certainly since 2015 western nations have been playing this rather cute game where in public they give these great rabble rousing speeches where they condemn Russian Aggression. Meanwhile in private they breath a sigh of relief that Russia has had the courage to do what needs to be done.

After all the leader of the military council representing the 'moderate rebels' in Astana belongs to a group that happily engages in genocide and has executed members of ISIL for being too moderate in their pursuit of genocide.

Britain approaching Russia will such hostility only seems likely to increase their frustration. This seems likely to manifest itself in Russia pushing ahead even harder leaving the UK with even less of a say save for picking up the bill for a massively increased terror threat.

24/1/17 (UK date).

Enemies of the People (Skeleton).

Today the UK Law Lords have just handed down their ruling on the triggering of Article 50 to allow Britain to exit from the European Union (EU) - the so-called "Brexit." This is obviously a complex ruling that I will need to read and properly digest.

However in talking about the subject when the case was heard in mid-November 2016 I said that there was nothing in the European Union Referendum Act of 2015 to suggest the referendum vote was advisory rather than binding. That type of statement is what a lawyer would consider a caveat.

When it comes to UK acts of Parliament you not only get the text of the act itself but also extensive explanatory and guiding notes explaining the context of the act. Having read them the guidance notes for the referendum act it make it quite clear that the referendum was advisory.

Therefore the Law Lords ruling that Parliament must give its consent to the triggering of Article 50 seems broadly correct.

That ruling does not mean that Brexit has in any way been stopped. The government has a working majority of 12. That means for Parliament not to give its consent 12 government MP's would have to rebel alongside all MP's who are not members of the governing party. Although not impossible this seems extremely unlikely.

However the Law Lords have ruled that rather than simply issuing a statement of consent acknowledging the referendum result Parliament must instead pass a full act. This is something I will have to look a closely but on this point the Law Lords do seem to have exceeded their authority.

Requiring an act of Parliament which its various committee, reading and voting stages gives dissenting MP's opportunity to severely delay the triggering of Article 50. That seems a spectacularly bad idea.

As I mentioned when the case was being heard whenever in 2017 Article 50 is triggered Brexit will come into effect on January 1st  2019 (1/1/19). The purpose of triggering it in March 2017 is that it gives UK businesses 9 months to learn and adapt to the changes. If the triggering of Article 50 slips from March the adaptation time is going to be reduced making the whole process more disruptive.

If the delay caused by Parliament turns out to be significant Britain could be forced to delay triggering Article 50 until March 2018. That extra year of uncertainty will do real damage to the UK economy significantly weakening Britain's negotiating position prior to the negotiation even starting. It will also significantly irritate Britain's negotiating partners withing the EU.

Last Tuesday's (17/1/17) speech by Prime Minister May on Brexit actually provides a good example of the type of problems cause by Britain's puffed up and self-important MP's. Prime Minister May did not want to give this speech but was pressured into it by British MP's and media's inability to talk about anything else.

The speech laid out in detail the UK's negotiating position. Although the headline was that the UK would leave both the single market and the customs union it also laid out positions that the UK is prepared to be flexible on. For example the claim that the UK will no longer contribute to the EU budget seems wildly optimistic.

The EU's position has long been that it will not negotiate with the UK until Article 50 has been triggered. By inviting all the EU Ambassadors to hear the speech in person the UK was using it as an attempt to start the negotiation early.

Although everyone is diplomatically polite aside from laying out the UK's position in detail that little stunt seems to have had a lot of people quietly taking note of something they're going to make Britain pay for during those negotiations.

A further delay is likely to mean a bigger bill.

10:45 on 24/1/17 (UK date).

The Long Walk to Freedom.

The Gambia is a small country in west Africa. It is bordered by Senegal on three sides and the Atlantic Ocean on the fourth.

On December 1st 2016 (1/12/16) the Gambia held a Presidential election. The three candidates were;

• Yahya Jammeh representing the Alliance for Patriotic Reorientation and Construction (APRC). Jammeh was the incumbent having seized power in a 1994 coup.

• Adama Barrow representing the "Coalition 2016" coalition of seven Gambian political parties as a member of the United Democratic Party (UDP).

• Mammah Kandeh a former member of the APRC who stood in this election representing the Gambian Democratic Congress (GDC).

Based on an electorate of 886,578 voters and a turnout of 59% the results were as follows;

1. Adama Barrow - 227,708 (43.3%),
2. Yahya Jammeh - 208, 487 (39.6%)
3. Mammah Kandeh - 89,768 (17.1%).

Therefore Adama Barrow was duly elected as Gambia's next President.

On December 2nd 2016 (2/12/16) Yahya Jammeh conceded defeat and telephoned Adama Barrow telling him; "You are elected president of The Gambia, and I wish you all the best."

However then Jammeh seemed to realise that giving up the Presidency would also mean giving up his immunity from prosecution. As a man who has jailed and murdered dozens of political opponents that could cause Jammeh quite a lot of problems.

So on December 9th 2016 (9/12/16) Jammeh appeared on television to announce that he was disputing the election the result and would not leave until Gambia's Supreme Court had ruled on the matter. 

The problem is that Gambia hasn't had a functioning Supreme Court since May 2015 when Jammeh dismissed the six Judges who sit on it along with the Chief Justice. The Gambia currently doesn't even have its own Chief Justice having been forced to borrow Emmanuel Oluwasegun Fagbenle from Nigeria. 

With the Supreme Court being unable to rule on the election result Jammeh saying that he will not step down until the Supreme Court rules is the same as Jammeh saying that he will not step down. Jammeh reinforced this message by deploying the Gambian military to key locations across the country on December 10th 2016 (10/12/16).

On December 12th 2016 (12/12/16) the Gambian bar association held an emergency meeting. They passed a resolution declaring Jammeh's refusal to accept the election result to be tantamount to treason and called on Chief Justice Fagbenle to resign for gross misconduct both by campaigning for Jammeh prior to the election and secretly appointing ineligible Judges to the Supreme Court after the election.

The Gambian bar association were joined by similar calls from the University of Gambia, the Gambian teachers union, the Gambian medical association, the Gambian press union and the Gambia's Supreme Islamic Council.

On December 13th 2016 (13/12/16) Jammeh sent the Gambian security forces to storm the offices of the Electoral Commission. They closed down those offices and expelled many of the commission's employees from the country.

On January 1st & 2nd 2017 (1&2/1/17) the Gambian National Intelligence Agency shut down several radio private stations to prevent them reporting that Barrow had won the election. On January 10th 2017 (10/1/17) Jammeh dismissed 12 Gambian Ambassadors for recognising the election of Barrow effectively expelling them from the country.

On January 17th 2017 (17/1/17) - the day before his mandate expired - Jammeh imposed a 90 day State of Emergency. It was around this time that Barrow himself was forced to flee the Gambia for Senegal fearing for his safety.

Yesterday - January 19th 2017 (19/1/17) Adama Barrow was sworn in as Gambia's President as scheduled at a formal ceremony at the Gambian Embassy in Senegal which is considered Gambian sovereign territory.

Adama Barrow's first act as Gambian President was to call on the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) to assist the Gambian people in removing Yahya Jammeh from the Presidential Palace in the Gambia's capital Banjul where he is now nothing more than a squatter. This call was immediately answered by Senegal, Nigeria and Ghana.

The United Nations Security Council (UNSC) have also considered Barrow's request for assistance. It recognised him as the President on the Gambia and called on Jammeh to vacate the Presidential Palace. However it stopped short of authorising military action.

That is because under the UN Charter the territorial integrity of nation - it's borders - and it's sovereignty - what happens within those borders - are considered to be almost inviolable. The only way the UNSC can authorise military action is under Chapter 7. The messes we have seen in Libya, Syria and Yemen show that Chapter 7 should only ever be used as an absolute last resort.

In this case though Chapter 7 is something that is most certainly on the table for discussion

Also there is no need for the UNSC to authorise military action. With Adama Barrow being the President of the Gambia this is viewed as him merely asking his allies - on behalf of the Gambian people - to help solve an internal security problem. That is something the Gambian President is fully entitled to do under the principles of sovereignty and territorial integrity.

Following the UNSC meeting the ECOWAS troops did cross into the Gambia. They paused their advance until 12:00 GMT today in order to give Jammeh one last chance to peacefully step aside.

The head of the Gambian military Ousman Badjie has since come out and said that he will not send his force of roughly 2,700 men to fight for Jammeh. He then proceeded to go out and dance in the streets in celebration of Barrow's inauguration.

The remaining concern though is that without the protection of the armed forces Jammeh will still attempt to send his supporters into the streets to resist the transition of power. Both by attacking the advancing ECOWAS troops and Barrow's supporters.

It is worth noting though that nearly 36% of the people of the Gambia voted to get Jammeh out of power while only 23% voted to keep him.

Even amongst those who voted for Jammeh many of them understand that if you lose an election then you have to leave power. Otherwise there is no point having elections.

13:30 on 20/1/17 (UK date).

Edited at around 15:20 on 21/1/17 (UK date) to add;

Well this is embarrassing.

Particularly if you live in somewhere like Britain and you work outside you know that you must never, ever utter the phrase; "Well at least it's not raining."

Likewise if you have troops assembled ready to go into action you never tempt fate by saying; "This is going to be easy."

However I was rather confident that attempts to evict Yahya Jammeh from Gambia's Presidential Palace would run relatively smoothly. That's because there is a hidden hand of conspiracy coordinating efforts. Albeit a clumsy one it is one I know well - Britain's MI6.

In October 2013 Yahya Jammeh withdrew the Gambia from the UK Commonwealth. Having lived in London, UK Adama Barrow has promised that as President he will restore the Gambia's membership of the UK Commonwealth.

The big plan behind the UK leaving the European Union (EU) in the Brexit is that it will allow the UK to trade more freely with the Commonwealth. So the Gambia returning to being a member of the Commonwealth is probably more important to the UK than it is to the Gambia.

Between 19:00 and 19:25 (GMT) last night someone entered the grounds of my property and smashed in a wooden door of one of the outbuildings. With nothing being stolen this was intended to send the coded message that Britain would soon smash down the door of the Gambia's Presidential Palace and force Jammeh out.

Rather than being intimidated or being angry in response to this I have to say that I was too busy being stunned by one of what has to be one of the dumbest moves I have ever seen.

Yahya Jammeh is an absolute chancer. He will try and use anything in a desperate effort to cling to power.

For example back in December 2016 he noticed that people in UN circles were using him to discuss that other Islamist dictator Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Jammeh's calculation was that this would help him stay in power because people at the UN would enjoy having him around to keep the conversation going.

Yesterday the ECOWAS forcing announced that they were halting their advance until 12:00 (GMT) to give Jammeh one last chance to vacate the Presidential Palace.

In itself this timing was extremely clumsy because every day at that time I tend to be on the Internet to catch up on the overnight night developments. With the wars in Syria and Iraq both at critical stages much as I'd like too I can't really take a full day off from the Internet. Not least because it was only by logging on to Twitter that I found out about this midday ultimatum.

Rather predictably Jammeh exploited the tension of the situation to get the deadline extended to 16:00 (GMT). This is the moment that Donald Trump's inauguration as US President began. Jammeh was obviously hoping the tension of that would allow him to exert pressure on those pleading with him to go.

Although the ceremony began at 16:00 it wasn't until 17:00 (GMT) Donald Trump was actually sworn in. It was at this moment Jammeh assured the ECOWAS representatives that he would vacate the Presidential Palace. He just needed a few more hours to assemble his government, prepare a public address and say his goodbyes.

Announcing two hours into that window that the UK is staging a coup in the Gambia is exactly the sort of thing that would allow Jammeh to call his supporters to the streets to resist the coup using the anti-Colonist banner which is so popular amongst African leaders such as Robert Mugabe and Julius Malema.

About an hour after I went to bed this morning Jammeh took to the TV screens to once again assure the Gambian people that he is leaving. No timescale for this departure was given but the rumours I've heard suggest that Jammeh is demanding a three day extension which will take us up to Monday January 23rd 2017 (23/1/17).

Jammeh's hope is that this will be enough time for him to rally supporters to the streets to resist the old colonial master and their puppet.

Obviously at this point it is extremely tempting for me to just stab Britain in the eye as punishment. However I should probably make two things clear;

Firstly Britain's attempts to remove Jammeh only began after Jammeh refused to honour the result of the election. Britain did not rig that election and Jammeh himself has said Adama Barrow won fair and square.

Secondly I considered all this before deciding to support efforts to remove Jammeh. Hence the slight delay.

16:05 on 21/1/17 (UK date).





 

Operation Featherweight: Month 30, Week 4, Day 7.

This should be read as a continuation of; http://watchitdie.blogspot.co.uk/2017/01/operation-featherweight-month-30-week-4_16.html

In that post I wrote about the agreement between the Syrians and the Army of Conquest/Jaish al-Fatah (JAF) coalition.

This sees the Army of Conquest leave the areas of Wadi Barada and Ayn al-Fijeh - roughly 10km (6 miles) north-west of Damascus - and head to the areas around Idlib City some 360km (216 miles) to the north. The plan is modelled on the agreement which followed the December 12th 2016 (12/12/16) liberation of Aleppo City. That too would see members of the Army of Conquest flee to the Idlib area.

Prior to the liberation of Aleppo City there were 11 camps for Internally Displaced Persons (IDP's) in the Idlib area. These are run by a variety of Non-Governmental Organisations (NGO's), armed groups, local landowners and the IDP's themselves.

However following the liberation of Aleppo City Turkish President/Prime Minister/Emperor Recep Tayyip Erdogan announced his intention to build a new camp. This camp would be run by Turkey and protected by the Turkish military.

As Turkey has done in Jarablus on the western bank of the Euphrates River as it flows from Turkey the purpose of this camp would be to establish the area as part of Turkey. Not only would you have the Turkish military providing security you would have Turkish hospitals providing healthcare and Turkish schools teaching in the Turkish language.

Erdogan's plan for a new Ottoman Empire is very much modelled on Adolf Hitler's invasion of Czechoslovakia in 1938. Here Nazi Germany supported local allies in conducting terror attacks within Czechoslovakia's border region. They then used these attacks as an excuse to invade and annex the Sudetenland as part of Nazi Germany under the pretence of protecting civilians. As such this area around Idlib City has been designated; "The Sudetenland."

Initially no specific camp was established. However the idea of these Turkish camp or possibly camps have been designated; "Long Kesh." In keeping with the theme of the Northern Irish Troubles this is a reference to the infamous Long Kesh internment camp established in Lisburn, Northern Ireland in 1971.

Turkey has now established the first of its Long Kesh camps in the Kammaunah area of Idlib province. I am though still trying to find an exact location.

However due to the December 29th 2016 (29/12/16) ceasefire Turkey has not been able to establish the camp to the extent that it would like. For example it has not been able to bring in military forces to provide security nor has it been able to bring in medical or educational facilities. It has though been able to bring in some 4,000 heated winter tents and some 700 truck loads of other supplies.

Turkey has also been able to establish a second Long Kesh camp. This time in the roughly 100km (60 mile) stretch of Syria's border with Turkey known as; "Garvaghy Road." Specifically at Igde village close to Azaz on the western boundary of Garvaghy Road.

As this area has been under Turkish military occupation since August 2016 this Igde camp is being provided with security by the Turkish military. The camp itself is run by Diyanet - the department of the Turkish government dedicated to promoting the Turkish version of Islam both at home and abroad. It has heated winter tents for 6,000 people although Turkey does not yet seem to have been able to establish medical an educational facilities as it has done in Jarablus or the other side of Garvaghy Road.

Initially Erdogan's plans for Long Kesh camps was met with vocal support from the US.

On December 29th 2016 (29/12/16) the New York Police Department (NYPD) announced that it would allow Sikh officers to wear long beards and hair under turbans as their religion requires. The religious obligation on Sikh men not to cut their hair or beards is known as; "Kesh." As such this was the NYPD who were very much the spotlight ahead of the New Year's Eve (31/12/16) celebrations giving permission for Long Kesh.

At the time I commented that seemed more like something Chicago's Police Department (CPD) would do. After all in August 2015 it was revealed that CPD had operated an off-the-books internment facility known as "Homan Square"where allegations of torture abounded.

The US' initial support for Long Kesh was met by a stony silence from the US' traditional allies. This seems to have prompted the US to withdraw its support.

On Tuesday January 3rd 2017 (3/1/17) a particularly unpleasant video was broadcast live on Facebook. It showed four black Chicago teens taunting, beating and torturing a white Chicago teen who is reported to suffer from some sort of learning disability or other sort of mental vulnerability.

Obviously everybody was outraged at how one of the most vulnerable of society could be mistreated. That should reflect the outrage that everybody feels at Erdogan's attempts to forcibly transfer civilians from Aleppo City to the Long Kesh camps for them to be used a human shields to protect the Army of Conquest in their attempts to establish a new Ottoman Empire in the Sudetenland. From the way the torturers cut the victim's hair from his scalp it's clear that they are no fans of Long Kesh.

The fact that the torturers were black while their victim was white along with the fact they shouted both anti-white and anti-Trump slogans throughout the attack would suggest that they are supporters of outgoing US President Obama's Black Lives Matter (BLM) movement. Obama's inability to recognise the terrorism of Black Lives Matter could help explain his inability to recognise the terrorism of Erdogan, the Army of Conquest and the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL).

The fact that the torturers engaged in the stereotypically Native American practice of; "Scalping" - cutting the hair and scalp from the head - seemed to be a reference to the way BLM tried to recruit Native Americans as their allies against the oppression of white Caucasians. The fact that Native Americans are white Caucasians is just further evidence that Obama and BLM don't enjoy the best relationship with reality.

Finally it highlighted that with 762 murders in 2016 alone Obama's adopted city which is now run by his former Chief-of-Staff Rahm Emmanuel is a complete mess. The fact that one of the Obama's administration's last acts was to further fire up the BLM cause by releasing a report on January 13th 2017 (13/1/17) accusing the CPD of racism further underlined the relief many a feeling that the childlike Obama regime is finally coming to an end.

Also on Friday January 13th 2017 (13/1/17) there was a shooting at an airport in Fort Lauderdale in the US state of Florida.

At the time the shooting took place incoming President Donald Trump was being presented with the Directorate of National Intelligence's (DNI's) rather comedy report into Russia hacking. Therefore as I said at the time this was primarily a way for the US intelligence community to get the measure of their new Commander-in-Chief.

For example the DNI report was complied using the Estimative Language technique which is also used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Trump's claim that climate change doesn't exist won't wash in the US state of Alaska where the gunman arrived from. They can see it happening.

Also the specific airport was Fort Lauderdale-Hollywood. You only needed to take a little glimpse at the January 15th 2017 (15/1/17) Golden Globe Awards to see how popular Donald Trump is in the much more famous Hollywood, California. With the inauguration coming up on January 20th 2017 (20/1/17) you would think that the lack of celebrity endorsements might be playing on Donald Trump's mind.

However the Fort Lauderdale airport shooting also encompassed elements of the fight against ISIL and the Army of Conquest.

For example much was made of the fact that the gunman - Esteban Santiago - had carried his gun in luggage aboard a flight from Alaska. On December 29th 2016 (29/12/16) I returned from the very British military city of Salisbury carrying a mysterious black bag that I had picked up on my travels. Given all the death threats a lot of people just assume I should be armed at this point.

The specific weapon used by Santiago was a Walther 9mm handgun. This is almost exactly the same type of weapon used by Turkish police officer Mevlut Altintas to assassinated Russian Ambassador Andrei Karlov in Ankara on December 19th 2016 (19/12/16). With Russia entitled to consider this an act of war against it by Turkey people are obviously interested to see how Russia will react.

Despite it being a different city the US state of Florida was of course the scene of the June 12th 2016 (12/6/16) terror attack at the Pulse nightclub in Orlando. The majority of the 49 victims of that attack were Hispanic. A native of Peurto Rico Esteban Santiago is also Hispanic. 

On January 1st 2017 (1/1/17) Erdogan staged a terror attack against the Reina nightclub in Istanbul. This was intended to reference the Pulse nightclub attack. Not least in a call for Obama to end US support for the anti-ISIL Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF).

So I think it's fair to assume that the voice in Obama's head telling him to support ISIL has a name.

Esteban Santiago made his first scheduled Court appearance on Tuesday (17/1/17). The night before Turkish authorities suddenly managed to arrest the suspect in the Reina attack -Abdulkadir Masharipov - in Istanbul following what doesn't seem to have been a particularly effective 16 day manhunt.

It is claimed that under questioning Masharipov confessed to the attack and said that he was trained by ISIL in Afghanistan. With Masharipov being an Uzbek national this further connects the Reina attack with the Pulse attack which was carried out by Omar Mateen - a Pashtu national of Afghanistan. It seems then to be a further threat to the US; Either give Erdogan exactly what he wants or he will start using ISIL to cause trouble for the US in Afghanistan too.

During the manhunt Turkish have not so much been implying but openly saying that Masharipov was directed by an unnamed foreign intelligence agency. The Turkish people have long been conditioned to assume that means America's CIA. However it has since been claimed that Masharipov travelled from Afghanistan to Turkey via Iran. Although it's yet to play out that seems to be Erdogan laying the groundwork for blaming Iran for the attack ahead of the January 23rd (23/1/17) Astana talks.

It has also been claimed that the Reina nightclub was not Masharipov's intended target. Apparently he'd intended to attack New Year's Eve celebrations in Istanbul's Taksim square had been deterred by the might of Erdogan's heroic, intelligent and handsome police force and their security plans. Therefore it is claimed that the Reina nightclub was a target of opportunity chosen at the last minute.

It  is probably worth noting that along with Qatar Turkey is currently in negotiations with Saudi Arabia to provide funding for the Long Kesh camp at Kammaunah. That would certainly give Erdogan incentive to distance himself from an attack that killed 7 Saudi nationals.

Back within Iraq the operation to liberate the city of Mosul from ISIL continues at some pace.

In my post on Saturday (14/1/17) I said that the Iraqi Security Forces (ISF) had secured the sprawling Mosul University campus. Sitting adjacent to the Nineveh Ruins this widely considered to mark the centre of the eastern side of the city - the left bank. 

To the south-east of the Nineveh Ruins the ISF had succeeded in entering but not fully liberating Jonah's Tomb.

Along the bank of the Tigris River the ISF had liberated the al-Faisaliah neighbourhood. This gave them control of three of the five bridges crossing the Tigris.

Since then the ISF have advanced westwards from the Mosul University campus liberating the al-Andalus and Shurta neighbourhoods that sit between it and the M80 Road.

The ISF have also succeeded in liberating Jonah's Tomb and the surrounding area. They have since pressed eastwards liberating the al-Jazar and  Nineveh al-Sharqiyah neighbourhoods that sit directly south of the Nineveh Ruins.

Along the bank of the Tigris the ISF have also succeeded in liberating the Az Zari'a and parts of the Althaqafa neighbourhoods. This includes Mosul's Grand Mosque located in the Az Zari'a neighbourhood which is where Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi declared ISIL to be a Caliphate and him its Caliph on June 30th 2014 (30/6/14). However they have not yet succeeded in securing the last two of Mosul's bridges.

Based on these gains as of midnight last night (17/1/17) ISIL are now restricted to just a small presence in the Nineveh Ruins and the al-Arabi and Rashidiyah neighbourhoods to the very north of Mosul's left bank along with a small presence around the two remaining bridges.

Today the commander of the ISF's elite Counter Terrorism Service (CTS/Golden Division) Lt. Gen Talib al-Shaqati declared that the east of Mosul had been fully liberated. This was quickly corrected by Lt. Gen. Abdul Amir Rashid Yarallah, the overall commander of the operation.

Although the Golden Division have completed their objectives I to think it is too early to declare eastern Mosul fully liberated. However if you ask me the same question tomorrow I may well have a different answer for you.

Once the east of Mosul has been fully liberated and secured it raises the question of how to tackle western Mosul. I think it would be sensible to pause and carefully consider a plan before rushing into action.

In much of the English speaking world we have a saying; "More haste, less speed." Essentially it means that it is better to wait a week to plan things out than to rush in and waste two weeks because you haven't planned things properly. As I'm sure I don't need to remind anyone there is more at stake than time in this operation.

At around 18:20 on 18/1/17 (UK date) I will proof read this after dinner.

20:35 on 18/1/17 (UK date).