In yesterday's post I wrote about how the eastern side of the northern Iraqi city of Mosul had been liberated from the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL).
Today I'd just like to remind everyone that eastern Mosul has been liberated from ISIL.
The original plan for the liberation of Mosul was to leave the entire western side of the city undefended. The idea being to allow ISIL fighters to mount only a symbolic defence to the city while withdrawing the bulk of their forces to Raqqa - their de facto capital in Syria.
There were a great many flaws to this plan. However one of the most significant relates to this roughly 100km (60 mile) stretch of Syria's border with Turkey. Known as "Garvaghy Road" this stretches between Azaz/Kilis in the west and the Euphrates River in the east. Garvaghy Road functions as the main ISIL supply route between Raqqa and Turkey.
Therefore if ISIL fighters were left to flee Mosul for Raqqa they could just as easily flee Raqqa for Turkey From Turkey those ISIL fighters would then be free to travel to the rest of the World.
Directly to the north of Raqqa and to the east of Garvaghy Road you have this vast 12,000kmsq (7,200 mile) buffer/safe-zone controlled by the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF/QSD) - the most effective anti-ISIL force on the ground in Syria.
It turns out I have got rather bored of writing out; "the vast 12,000kmsq (7,200 mile) buffer/safe-zone controlled by the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF/QSD)" so I have decided to designate this area as; "Shangri-La" because it sounds a bit Cantonese-y.
Following what I gather was a bad tempered NATO meeting at the end of October 2016 the US attempted to solve the problem of Garvaghy Road by pressuring the SDF to launch an operation against Raqqa. The first phase of this operation was completed on November 25th 2016 (25/11/16) and saw the SDF advance from some 45km (27 miles) south from the town of Ayn Issa to within 25km (15 miles) north of Raqqa.
The second phase of the operation saw the SDF advance south along the banks of the Euphrates River towards Raqqa. This phase was completed on January 16th 2017 (16/1/17) with the SDF having advanced to within 8km (5 miles) of the Tabqa Dam.
Forming Lake Assad out of the Euphrates River the Tabqa Dam sits around 55km (33 miles) west of Raqqa. It forms the main crossing point of the Euphrates linking Raqqa with Garvaghy Road via the H4 Highway and the town of al-Bab.
Unlike in Mosul where the frontlines are clearly defined by roads and neighbourhoods in the area between Shangri-La and Raqqa the frontlines tend to be an invisible line running through the middle of a field. Therefore it seems I owe the SDF an apology.
In estimating the territory liberated on January 14th 2017 (14/1/17) I said that they'd liberated 113 farms and villages within a 1,200kmsq (720 milesq) area. Thus they'd increased the size of Shangri-La to 13,200kmsq (7,920 milesq). That is a significant underestimate of the SDF's achievement.
In fact the SDF had succeeded in liberating 197 farms and villages within a 3,200kmsq (1,920 milesq). This increased the size of Shangri-La to 15,200kmsq (9,120 milesq).
On August 25th 2016 (25/8/16) Turkish President/Prime Minister/Emperor Recep Tayyip Erdogan sent regular Turkish forces to invade and occupy Garvaghy Road. This was done specifically to prevent the SDF liberating the area and cutting off ISIL's supply lines with Turkey. Since November 2016 Erdogan's forces have been attempting to cycle control of al-Bab from ISIL.
As such I think it is fair to conclude that Erdogan very much opposes the SDF liberating Tabqa Dam cutting off the route between Raqqa and al-Bab.
On January 1st 2017 (1/1/17) Erdogan went even further by staging a terror attack against the Reina nightclub in the Turkish city of Istanbul. This was designed to invoke memories the June 12th 2016 (12/6/16) terror attack against the Pulse nightclub in the US city of Orlando. The intention being to call on the US to withdraw its support for the SDF in order to allow Erdogan's forces to invade and occupy Shangri-La.
On January 20th 2017 (20/1/17) Donald Trump replaced Barack Obama as US President.
On January 21st 2017 (21/1/17) the SDF backed by the US-led coalition - Combined Joint Task Force: Operation Inherent Resolve (CJTFOIR) - launched an operation to liberate the town of Suweydiya al-Kabirah. That operation was completed a day later.
Suweydiya al-Kabirah sits around 3km (2 miles) north-west of the Tabqa Dam. It's liberation is seen as vital for control of the Raqqa to Tabqa road which crosses the dam and the liberation of the dam itself. During the course of the operation a member of the SDF's Quinta Brigada international brigade sacrificed their life. He was Paolo Todd from Los Angeles, California.
Also on January 21st (21/1/17) it was reported by local sources that the US had established a new Special Operations Force (SOF) base close to the city of Hasakah within Shangri-La. This has since been denied by the US. However as a general rule when SOF's are involved you don't really believe anything until it has been officially denied. It is the involvement of US SOF's that has made it much harder for me to get accurate information out of the SDF.
Meanwhile Erdogan continues his efforts to annex Garvaghy Road as part of the new Ottoman Empire.
Since the August 25th (25/8/16) invasion Erdogan has focused his efforts on the town of Jarablus which sits on the western border of the Euphrates River. Initially Erdogan sent in Turkish doctors and nurses to establish Turkish hospitals in the town. This was followed by the building of religious schools to teach in the Turkish language.
On January 22nd (22/1/17) Jarablus saw the graduation of a what Erdogan claims is a Syrian police. Numbering some 450 they wear as their cap badges the Turkish flag and at their graduation ceremony proclaim their loyalty to Turkey and Erdogan personally by chanting;
"Long Live Turkey! Long Live Erdogan!"
18:15 on 26/1/17 (UK date).
Thursday, 26 January 2017
Wednesday, 25 January 2017
Operation Featherweight: Month 31, Week 1, Day 5.
Since October 2016 a combined Iraqi Security Force (ISF) and Iraqi Peshmerga force have been trying to liberate the northern Iraqi city of Mosul from the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL).
In my post last Wednesday (18/1/17) I said that the ISF were on the brink of fully liberating the eastern side of the city - the so-called Left Bank.
The ISF had succeeded in liberating all of the city up to the M80 Motorway which run parallel to the Tigris River up to the junction with the University Highway Road. This included three of the five bridges that cross the Tigris into western Mosul. This left ISIL in control of just the barely populated Ghabat neighbourhood which sits beyond the junction and the al-Arabi and Rashidiyah neighbourhoods at the very north of the eastern side of the city.
On Thursday (19/1/17) the ISF then confused everyone by moving to liberate the town of Tel Skuf. Technically not considered part of Mosul itself this sits around 11km (6.5 miles) north of the al-Arabi neighbourhood. The operation to liberate Tel Skuf was completed by the end of Thursday (19/1/17).
Liberating Tel Skuf is of course and essential part of liberating Mosul. In fact if the ISF had declared eastern Mosul liberated without liberating Tel Skuf I would have corrected them and instructed them to liberate the town. However suddenly diverting attention to a town outside of Mosul rather than the outstanding neighbourhoods did alter the momentum of the operation meaning the liberation of those neighbourhoods was delayed.
They weren't though delayed for long. On Sunday (22/1/16) the ISF succeeded in liberating the al-Arabi neighbourhood. This left ISIL unable to defend the Ghabat neighbourhood which was liberated soon after along with the two remaining bridges. On Monday (23/1/17) the ISF succeeded in liberating the Rashidiyah neighbourhood.
Yesterday (24/1/17) Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi declared that eastern Mosul had been fully liberated.
Although the combat phase of operations in eastern Mosul is complete the ISF still need to conduct a consolidation phase in which they search the area to make sure it is truly free of ISIL fighters and any booby traps they may have left behind.
The fact that this phase has not yet being completed led to some of the problems we've seen yesterday and today. Essentially one or two ISIL fighters who've been hiding in buildings have suddenly emerged and started shooting. Although one or two fighters represent no real military threat while this is going on the street that building is on certainly doesn't seem liberated.
Even before the consolidation phase is completed the ISF can start planning the best way to approach liberating the western side of Mosul. This obviously puts me in a difficult position. After all I don't want to give ISIL an advantage by telling them what to expect.
The original plan for the liberation of Mosul of course focused on leaving the entire western side of the city undefended. The thinking being that this would allow ISIL slip back to Raqqa - their de facto capital in Syria - while only mounting a symbolic defence of Mosul.
The Popular Mobilisation Forces (PMF) who are a coalition of militias operating as part of the ISF almost immediately saw the flaw in this plan. By November 16th 2016 (16/11/16) they'd moved into positions at Tel Afar airport some 60km (35 miles) to the west of Mosul along the H47 Highway. The PMF are now keen to mount an assault on Tel Afar proper and Mosul from the west. This is certainly an option.
However throughout this operation has been hampered by Turkish President/Prime Minister/Emperor Recep Tayyip Erdogan.
Fearing a loss of Turkish influence in a part of Iraq he hopes to annex as part of a new Ottoman Empire Erdogan has long opposed any PMF role within the liberation of either Tel Afar or Mosul. Turkey maintains a military presence at the Bashiqa camp just to the north-east of Mosul and has amassed forces on the Turkish side of the border which Erdogan has threatened to use to prevent a PMF liberation of Tel Afar let alone Mosul.
Perhaps more importantly though the US-led coalition - Combined Joint Task Force: Operation Inherent Resolve (CJTFOIR) - has said that the operation to liberate the eastern part of Mosul has witnessed some of the toughest street fighting they have ever seen. Being even more densely packed with narrow, warren like streets fighting to liberate western Mosul is likely to be even tougher.
In that type of situation careful coordination between the forces on the ground is essential. Ideally what you want is a single force made up of highly disciplined troops with a clear chain of command all answerable to a single overall commander.
Therefore I would much prefer to see the PMF cede their positions to the west of Mosul to the ISF. This would allow the ISF to conduct the operation within Mosul while the PMF provide perimeter security in much the same way as the Peshmerga have done in eastern Mosul.
However I am aware that the ISF have sustained significant casualties in liberating eastern Mosul. Also while they work to liberate western Mosul the ISF will have to maintain a large deployment to maintain security in the east of the city. That is on top of having to maintain security across the rest of Iraq including in Anbar province where fighting continues around Qaim.
Plus although there is some time to pause and plan the next phase of the Mosul operation that is likely to only be a short window. I am not sure that the ISF will have enough time to redeploy a sizable force to the west of Mosul. Not least because they will have to fight their way through Tel Afar in order to even get to western Mosul.
Therefore as an absolute last resort I am happy for the PMF to participate in the Mosul operation. However they must do so under the command of the ISF possibly even with ISF commanders being embedded with units on the ground.
17:55 on 25/1/17 (UK date).
In my post last Wednesday (18/1/17) I said that the ISF were on the brink of fully liberating the eastern side of the city - the so-called Left Bank.
The ISF had succeeded in liberating all of the city up to the M80 Motorway which run parallel to the Tigris River up to the junction with the University Highway Road. This included three of the five bridges that cross the Tigris into western Mosul. This left ISIL in control of just the barely populated Ghabat neighbourhood which sits beyond the junction and the al-Arabi and Rashidiyah neighbourhoods at the very north of the eastern side of the city.
On Thursday (19/1/17) the ISF then confused everyone by moving to liberate the town of Tel Skuf. Technically not considered part of Mosul itself this sits around 11km (6.5 miles) north of the al-Arabi neighbourhood. The operation to liberate Tel Skuf was completed by the end of Thursday (19/1/17).
Liberating Tel Skuf is of course and essential part of liberating Mosul. In fact if the ISF had declared eastern Mosul liberated without liberating Tel Skuf I would have corrected them and instructed them to liberate the town. However suddenly diverting attention to a town outside of Mosul rather than the outstanding neighbourhoods did alter the momentum of the operation meaning the liberation of those neighbourhoods was delayed.
They weren't though delayed for long. On Sunday (22/1/16) the ISF succeeded in liberating the al-Arabi neighbourhood. This left ISIL unable to defend the Ghabat neighbourhood which was liberated soon after along with the two remaining bridges. On Monday (23/1/17) the ISF succeeded in liberating the Rashidiyah neighbourhood.
Yesterday (24/1/17) Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi declared that eastern Mosul had been fully liberated.
Although the combat phase of operations in eastern Mosul is complete the ISF still need to conduct a consolidation phase in which they search the area to make sure it is truly free of ISIL fighters and any booby traps they may have left behind.
The fact that this phase has not yet being completed led to some of the problems we've seen yesterday and today. Essentially one or two ISIL fighters who've been hiding in buildings have suddenly emerged and started shooting. Although one or two fighters represent no real military threat while this is going on the street that building is on certainly doesn't seem liberated.
Even before the consolidation phase is completed the ISF can start planning the best way to approach liberating the western side of Mosul. This obviously puts me in a difficult position. After all I don't want to give ISIL an advantage by telling them what to expect.
The original plan for the liberation of Mosul of course focused on leaving the entire western side of the city undefended. The thinking being that this would allow ISIL slip back to Raqqa - their de facto capital in Syria - while only mounting a symbolic defence of Mosul.
The Popular Mobilisation Forces (PMF) who are a coalition of militias operating as part of the ISF almost immediately saw the flaw in this plan. By November 16th 2016 (16/11/16) they'd moved into positions at Tel Afar airport some 60km (35 miles) to the west of Mosul along the H47 Highway. The PMF are now keen to mount an assault on Tel Afar proper and Mosul from the west. This is certainly an option.
However throughout this operation has been hampered by Turkish President/Prime Minister/Emperor Recep Tayyip Erdogan.
Fearing a loss of Turkish influence in a part of Iraq he hopes to annex as part of a new Ottoman Empire Erdogan has long opposed any PMF role within the liberation of either Tel Afar or Mosul. Turkey maintains a military presence at the Bashiqa camp just to the north-east of Mosul and has amassed forces on the Turkish side of the border which Erdogan has threatened to use to prevent a PMF liberation of Tel Afar let alone Mosul.
Perhaps more importantly though the US-led coalition - Combined Joint Task Force: Operation Inherent Resolve (CJTFOIR) - has said that the operation to liberate the eastern part of Mosul has witnessed some of the toughest street fighting they have ever seen. Being even more densely packed with narrow, warren like streets fighting to liberate western Mosul is likely to be even tougher.
In that type of situation careful coordination between the forces on the ground is essential. Ideally what you want is a single force made up of highly disciplined troops with a clear chain of command all answerable to a single overall commander.
Therefore I would much prefer to see the PMF cede their positions to the west of Mosul to the ISF. This would allow the ISF to conduct the operation within Mosul while the PMF provide perimeter security in much the same way as the Peshmerga have done in eastern Mosul.
However I am aware that the ISF have sustained significant casualties in liberating eastern Mosul. Also while they work to liberate western Mosul the ISF will have to maintain a large deployment to maintain security in the east of the city. That is on top of having to maintain security across the rest of Iraq including in Anbar province where fighting continues around Qaim.
Plus although there is some time to pause and plan the next phase of the Mosul operation that is likely to only be a short window. I am not sure that the ISF will have enough time to redeploy a sizable force to the west of Mosul. Not least because they will have to fight their way through Tel Afar in order to even get to western Mosul.
Therefore as an absolute last resort I am happy for the PMF to participate in the Mosul operation. However they must do so under the command of the ISF possibly even with ISF commanders being embedded with units on the ground.
17:55 on 25/1/17 (UK date).
Tuesday, 24 January 2017
Operation Featherweight: Month 31, Week 1, Day 4.
It turns out it has been a full week since my last update on the fight against the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) and associated groups.
In that time there have been numerous developments within Syria. The effort to liberate the eastern coast - the left bank - of the northern Iraqi city of Mosul also seems to have progressed from a combat phase to a consolidation phase.
Unfortunately I have not been free to comment on those developments due to multi-party talks on the situation in Syria being held in Astana, Kazakhstan both yesterday (23/1/17) and today (24/1/17).
As it is currently around 20:15 in the evening and I've just got back from the pub a full update will have to wait until tomorrow. However I feel I do need to comment on Britain's role in the Astana talks.
Those talks are of course a follow up to talks that were originally scheduled to take place on December 27th 2016 (27/1/16).
Although they were forced forward to December 20th 2016 (20/1/16) the original plan was that they would coincide with my Christmas visit to see my lesbian mothers and the associated miscreants that make up my family. The hope being that the complexity of my domestic situation would exert pressure on all parties during the talks.
I think it is fair to say that Britain has been extremely unhappy that while I would be a party to the December 27th talks they would be excluded. So for this round of Astana talks Britain has gone to great lengths to try and muscle in on proceedings.
Rather appropriately this began with events between 19:00 and 19:25 (GMT) last Friday (20/1/17) when persons unknown smashed in a door on one of the outbuildings in my home.
This was intended to send the message that Britain's foreign intelligence service - MI6 - was trying to smash down the door of the Presidential Palace in the Gambian capital Banjul to evict Yahya Jammeh who was squatting there.
The hope being that this would provoke Jammah's supporters to the streets in an attempt to resist what he would call a colonialist coup. This would lead to a very tense three days while we waited to find out if Jammeh would stand and fight or leave as he'd agreed on January 23rd (23/1/17) - the first day of the Astana talks.
This pressure would peak today with the UK Law Lords releasing their judgement in the Brexit case. Although one of my mothers reads this type of Court ruling for fun for most people it is quite a lot to trawl through. Particularly when it's written in your second, third or possibly even fourth language.
Combining the two issues there is currently some debate within the UK Establishment over whether to use me in the Brexit negotiations in the same way that it attempted to use me in the Climate Change negotiations and Russia is attempting to use me in the Astana negotiations. You may have even got the impression that the Law Lords insisted on an Act of Parliament rather than a much simpler binding motion in an effort to delay proceedings until the ISIL situation is resolved.
Obviously I can't really comment on the Establishment's plans to use me in the Brexit negotiations. After all if you were asked if you wanted to commit yourself to another two years of robberies, shootings, hospitalisations, arrests and Court appearances how would you answer?
However I must say that Britain's approach to the Astana talks has been spectacularly unwise.
You only need to look at the December 25th 2016 (25/1/16) crash of RA-85572 to see that these Russian-led negotiations are borne out of frustration.
Certainly since 2015 western nations have been playing this rather cute game where in public they give these great rabble rousing speeches where they condemn Russian Aggression. Meanwhile in private they breath a sigh of relief that Russia has had the courage to do what needs to be done.
After all the leader of the military council representing the 'moderate rebels' in Astana belongs to a group that happily engages in genocide and has executed members of ISIL for being too moderate in their pursuit of genocide.
Britain approaching Russia will such hostility only seems likely to increase their frustration. This seems likely to manifest itself in Russia pushing ahead even harder leaving the UK with even less of a say save for picking up the bill for a massively increased terror threat.
24/1/17 (UK date).
In that time there have been numerous developments within Syria. The effort to liberate the eastern coast - the left bank - of the northern Iraqi city of Mosul also seems to have progressed from a combat phase to a consolidation phase.
Unfortunately I have not been free to comment on those developments due to multi-party talks on the situation in Syria being held in Astana, Kazakhstan both yesterday (23/1/17) and today (24/1/17).
As it is currently around 20:15 in the evening and I've just got back from the pub a full update will have to wait until tomorrow. However I feel I do need to comment on Britain's role in the Astana talks.
Those talks are of course a follow up to talks that were originally scheduled to take place on December 27th 2016 (27/1/16).
Although they were forced forward to December 20th 2016 (20/1/16) the original plan was that they would coincide with my Christmas visit to see my lesbian mothers and the associated miscreants that make up my family. The hope being that the complexity of my domestic situation would exert pressure on all parties during the talks.
I think it is fair to say that Britain has been extremely unhappy that while I would be a party to the December 27th talks they would be excluded. So for this round of Astana talks Britain has gone to great lengths to try and muscle in on proceedings.
Rather appropriately this began with events between 19:00 and 19:25 (GMT) last Friday (20/1/17) when persons unknown smashed in a door on one of the outbuildings in my home.
This was intended to send the message that Britain's foreign intelligence service - MI6 - was trying to smash down the door of the Presidential Palace in the Gambian capital Banjul to evict Yahya Jammeh who was squatting there.
The hope being that this would provoke Jammah's supporters to the streets in an attempt to resist what he would call a colonialist coup. This would lead to a very tense three days while we waited to find out if Jammeh would stand and fight or leave as he'd agreed on January 23rd (23/1/17) - the first day of the Astana talks.
This pressure would peak today with the UK Law Lords releasing their judgement in the Brexit case. Although one of my mothers reads this type of Court ruling for fun for most people it is quite a lot to trawl through. Particularly when it's written in your second, third or possibly even fourth language.
Combining the two issues there is currently some debate within the UK Establishment over whether to use me in the Brexit negotiations in the same way that it attempted to use me in the Climate Change negotiations and Russia is attempting to use me in the Astana negotiations. You may have even got the impression that the Law Lords insisted on an Act of Parliament rather than a much simpler binding motion in an effort to delay proceedings until the ISIL situation is resolved.
Obviously I can't really comment on the Establishment's plans to use me in the Brexit negotiations. After all if you were asked if you wanted to commit yourself to another two years of robberies, shootings, hospitalisations, arrests and Court appearances how would you answer?
However I must say that Britain's approach to the Astana talks has been spectacularly unwise.
You only need to look at the December 25th 2016 (25/1/16) crash of RA-85572 to see that these Russian-led negotiations are borne out of frustration.
Certainly since 2015 western nations have been playing this rather cute game where in public they give these great rabble rousing speeches where they condemn Russian Aggression. Meanwhile in private they breath a sigh of relief that Russia has had the courage to do what needs to be done.
After all the leader of the military council representing the 'moderate rebels' in Astana belongs to a group that happily engages in genocide and has executed members of ISIL for being too moderate in their pursuit of genocide.
Britain approaching Russia will such hostility only seems likely to increase their frustration. This seems likely to manifest itself in Russia pushing ahead even harder leaving the UK with even less of a say save for picking up the bill for a massively increased terror threat.
24/1/17 (UK date).
Enemies of the People (Skeleton).
Today the UK Law Lords have just handed down their ruling on the triggering of Article 50 to allow Britain to exit from the European Union (EU) - the so-called "Brexit." This is obviously a complex ruling that I will need to read and properly digest.
However in talking about the subject when the case was heard in mid-November 2016 I said that there was nothing in the European Union Referendum Act of 2015 to suggest the referendum vote was advisory rather than binding. That type of statement is what a lawyer would consider a caveat.
When it comes to UK acts of Parliament you not only get the text of the act itself but also extensive explanatory and guiding notes explaining the context of the act. Having read them the guidance notes for the referendum act it make it quite clear that the referendum was advisory.
Therefore the Law Lords ruling that Parliament must give its consent to the triggering of Article 50 seems broadly correct.
That ruling does not mean that Brexit has in any way been stopped. The government has a working majority of 12. That means for Parliament not to give its consent 12 government MP's would have to rebel alongside all MP's who are not members of the governing party. Although not impossible this seems extremely unlikely.
However the Law Lords have ruled that rather than simply issuing a statement of consent acknowledging the referendum result Parliament must instead pass a full act. This is something I will have to look a closely but on this point the Law Lords do seem to have exceeded their authority.
Requiring an act of Parliament which its various committee, reading and voting stages gives dissenting MP's opportunity to severely delay the triggering of Article 50. That seems a spectacularly bad idea.
As I mentioned when the case was being heard whenever in 2017 Article 50 is triggered Brexit will come into effect on January 1st 2019 (1/1/19). The purpose of triggering it in March 2017 is that it gives UK businesses 9 months to learn and adapt to the changes. If the triggering of Article 50 slips from March the adaptation time is going to be reduced making the whole process more disruptive.
If the delay caused by Parliament turns out to be significant Britain could be forced to delay triggering Article 50 until March 2018. That extra year of uncertainty will do real damage to the UK economy significantly weakening Britain's negotiating position prior to the negotiation even starting. It will also significantly irritate Britain's negotiating partners withing the EU.
Last Tuesday's (17/1/17) speech by Prime Minister May on Brexit actually provides a good example of the type of problems cause by Britain's puffed up and self-important MP's. Prime Minister May did not want to give this speech but was pressured into it by British MP's and media's inability to talk about anything else.
The speech laid out in detail the UK's negotiating position. Although the headline was that the UK would leave both the single market and the customs union it also laid out positions that the UK is prepared to be flexible on. For example the claim that the UK will no longer contribute to the EU budget seems wildly optimistic.
The EU's position has long been that it will not negotiate with the UK until Article 50 has been triggered. By inviting all the EU Ambassadors to hear the speech in person the UK was using it as an attempt to start the negotiation early.
Although everyone is diplomatically polite aside from laying out the UK's position in detail that little stunt seems to have had a lot of people quietly taking note of something they're going to make Britain pay for during those negotiations.
A further delay is likely to mean a bigger bill.
10:45 on 24/1/17 (UK date).
However in talking about the subject when the case was heard in mid-November 2016 I said that there was nothing in the European Union Referendum Act of 2015 to suggest the referendum vote was advisory rather than binding. That type of statement is what a lawyer would consider a caveat.
When it comes to UK acts of Parliament you not only get the text of the act itself but also extensive explanatory and guiding notes explaining the context of the act. Having read them the guidance notes for the referendum act it make it quite clear that the referendum was advisory.
Therefore the Law Lords ruling that Parliament must give its consent to the triggering of Article 50 seems broadly correct.
That ruling does not mean that Brexit has in any way been stopped. The government has a working majority of 12. That means for Parliament not to give its consent 12 government MP's would have to rebel alongside all MP's who are not members of the governing party. Although not impossible this seems extremely unlikely.
However the Law Lords have ruled that rather than simply issuing a statement of consent acknowledging the referendum result Parliament must instead pass a full act. This is something I will have to look a closely but on this point the Law Lords do seem to have exceeded their authority.
Requiring an act of Parliament which its various committee, reading and voting stages gives dissenting MP's opportunity to severely delay the triggering of Article 50. That seems a spectacularly bad idea.
As I mentioned when the case was being heard whenever in 2017 Article 50 is triggered Brexit will come into effect on January 1st 2019 (1/1/19). The purpose of triggering it in March 2017 is that it gives UK businesses 9 months to learn and adapt to the changes. If the triggering of Article 50 slips from March the adaptation time is going to be reduced making the whole process more disruptive.
If the delay caused by Parliament turns out to be significant Britain could be forced to delay triggering Article 50 until March 2018. That extra year of uncertainty will do real damage to the UK economy significantly weakening Britain's negotiating position prior to the negotiation even starting. It will also significantly irritate Britain's negotiating partners withing the EU.
Last Tuesday's (17/1/17) speech by Prime Minister May on Brexit actually provides a good example of the type of problems cause by Britain's puffed up and self-important MP's. Prime Minister May did not want to give this speech but was pressured into it by British MP's and media's inability to talk about anything else.
The speech laid out in detail the UK's negotiating position. Although the headline was that the UK would leave both the single market and the customs union it also laid out positions that the UK is prepared to be flexible on. For example the claim that the UK will no longer contribute to the EU budget seems wildly optimistic.
The EU's position has long been that it will not negotiate with the UK until Article 50 has been triggered. By inviting all the EU Ambassadors to hear the speech in person the UK was using it as an attempt to start the negotiation early.
Although everyone is diplomatically polite aside from laying out the UK's position in detail that little stunt seems to have had a lot of people quietly taking note of something they're going to make Britain pay for during those negotiations.
A further delay is likely to mean a bigger bill.
10:45 on 24/1/17 (UK date).
Friday, 20 January 2017
The Long Walk to Freedom.
The Gambia is a small country in west Africa. It is bordered by Senegal on three sides and the Atlantic Ocean on the fourth.
On December 1st 2016 (1/12/16) the Gambia held a Presidential election. The three candidates were;
On December 2nd 2016 (2/12/16) Yahya Jammeh conceded defeat and telephoned Adama Barrow telling him; "You are elected president of The Gambia, and I wish you all the best."
However then Jammeh seemed to realise that giving up the Presidency would also mean giving up his immunity from prosecution. As a man who has jailed and murdered dozens of political opponents that could cause Jammeh quite a lot of problems.
So on December 9th 2016 (9/12/16) Jammeh appeared on television to announce that he was disputing the election the result and would not leave until Gambia's Supreme Court had ruled on the matter.
The problem is that Gambia hasn't had a functioning Supreme Court since May 2015 when Jammeh dismissed the six Judges who sit on it along with the Chief Justice. The Gambia currently doesn't even have its own Chief Justice having been forced to borrow Emmanuel Oluwasegun Fagbenle from Nigeria.
With the Supreme Court being unable to rule on the election result Jammeh saying that he will not step down until the Supreme Court rules is the same as Jammeh saying that he will not step down. Jammeh reinforced this message by deploying the Gambian military to key locations across the country on December 10th 2016 (10/12/16).
On December 12th 2016 (12/12/16) the Gambian bar association held an emergency meeting. They passed a resolution declaring Jammeh's refusal to accept the election result to be tantamount to treason and called on Chief Justice Fagbenle to resign for gross misconduct both by campaigning for Jammeh prior to the election and secretly appointing ineligible Judges to the Supreme Court after the election.
The Gambian bar association were joined by similar calls from the University of Gambia, the Gambian teachers union, the Gambian medical association, the Gambian press union and the Gambia's Supreme Islamic Council.
On December 13th 2016 (13/12/16) Jammeh sent the Gambian security forces to storm the offices of the Electoral Commission. They closed down those offices and expelled many of the commission's employees from the country.
On January 1st & 2nd 2017 (1&2/1/17) the Gambian National Intelligence Agency shut down several radio private stations to prevent them reporting that Barrow had won the election. On January 10th 2017 (10/1/17) Jammeh dismissed 12 Gambian Ambassadors for recognising the election of Barrow effectively expelling them from the country.
On January 17th 2017 (17/1/17) - the day before his mandate expired - Jammeh imposed a 90 day State of Emergency. It was around this time that Barrow himself was forced to flee the Gambia for Senegal fearing for his safety.
Yesterday - January 19th 2017 (19/1/17) Adama Barrow was sworn in as Gambia's President as scheduled at a formal ceremony at the Gambian Embassy in Senegal which is considered Gambian sovereign territory.
Adama Barrow's first act as Gambian President was to call on the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) to assist the Gambian people in removing Yahya Jammeh from the Presidential Palace in the Gambia's capital Banjul where he is now nothing more than a squatter. This call was immediately answered by Senegal, Nigeria and Ghana.
The United Nations Security Council (UNSC) have also considered Barrow's request for assistance. It recognised him as the President on the Gambia and called on Jammeh to vacate the Presidential Palace. However it stopped short of authorising military action.
That is because under the UN Charter the territorial integrity of nation - it's borders - and it's sovereignty - what happens within those borders - are considered to be almost inviolable. The only way the UNSC can authorise military action is under Chapter 7. The messes we have seen in Libya, Syria and Yemen show that Chapter 7 should only ever be used as an absolute last resort.
In this case though Chapter 7 is something that is most certainly on the table for discussion
Also there is no need for the UNSC to authorise military action. With Adama Barrow being the President of the Gambia this is viewed as him merely asking his allies - on behalf of the Gambian people - to help solve an internal security problem. That is something the Gambian President is fully entitled to do under the principles of sovereignty and territorial integrity.
Following the UNSC meeting the ECOWAS troops did cross into the Gambia. They paused their advance until 12:00 GMT today in order to give Jammeh one last chance to peacefully step aside.
The head of the Gambian military Ousman Badjie has since come out and said that he will not send his force of roughly 2,700 men to fight for Jammeh. He then proceeded to go out and dance in the streets in celebration of Barrow's inauguration.
The remaining concern though is that without the protection of the armed forces Jammeh will still attempt to send his supporters into the streets to resist the transition of power. Both by attacking the advancing ECOWAS troops and Barrow's supporters.
It is worth noting though that nearly 36% of the people of the Gambia voted to get Jammeh out of power while only 23% voted to keep him.
Even amongst those who voted for Jammeh many of them understand that if you lose an election then you have to leave power. Otherwise there is no point having elections.
13:30 on 20/1/17 (UK date).
Edited at around 15:20 on 21/1/17 (UK date) to add;
Well this is embarrassing.
Particularly if you live in somewhere like Britain and you work outside you know that you must never, ever utter the phrase; "Well at least it's not raining."
Likewise if you have troops assembled ready to go into action you never tempt fate by saying; "This is going to be easy."
However I was rather confident that attempts to evict Yahya Jammeh from Gambia's Presidential Palace would run relatively smoothly. That's because there is a hidden hand of conspiracy coordinating efforts. Albeit a clumsy one it is one I know well - Britain's MI6.
In October 2013 Yahya Jammeh withdrew the Gambia from the UK Commonwealth. Having lived in London, UK Adama Barrow has promised that as President he will restore the Gambia's membership of the UK Commonwealth.
The big plan behind the UK leaving the European Union (EU) in the Brexit is that it will allow the UK to trade more freely with the Commonwealth. So the Gambia returning to being a member of the Commonwealth is probably more important to the UK than it is to the Gambia.
Between 19:00 and 19:25 (GMT) last night someone entered the grounds of my property and smashed in a wooden door of one of the outbuildings. With nothing being stolen this was intended to send the coded message that Britain would soon smash down the door of the Gambia's Presidential Palace and force Jammeh out.
Rather than being intimidated or being angry in response to this I have to say that I was too busy being stunned by one of what has to be one of the dumbest moves I have ever seen.
Yahya Jammeh is an absolute chancer. He will try and use anything in a desperate effort to cling to power.
For example back in December 2016 he noticed that people in UN circles were using him to discuss that other Islamist dictator Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Jammeh's calculation was that this would help him stay in power because people at the UN would enjoy having him around to keep the conversation going.
Yesterday the ECOWAS forcing announced that they were halting their advance until 12:00 (GMT) to give Jammeh one last chance to vacate the Presidential Palace.
In itself this timing was extremely clumsy because every day at that time I tend to be on the Internet to catch up on the overnight night developments. With the wars in Syria and Iraq both at critical stages much as I'd like too I can't really take a full day off from the Internet. Not least because it was only by logging on to Twitter that I found out about this midday ultimatum.
Rather predictably Jammeh exploited the tension of the situation to get the deadline extended to 16:00 (GMT). This is the moment that Donald Trump's inauguration as US President began. Jammeh was obviously hoping the tension of that would allow him to exert pressure on those pleading with him to go.
Although the ceremony began at 16:00 it wasn't until 17:00 (GMT) Donald Trump was actually sworn in. It was at this moment Jammeh assured the ECOWAS representatives that he would vacate the Presidential Palace. He just needed a few more hours to assemble his government, prepare a public address and say his goodbyes.
Announcing two hours into that window that the UK is staging a coup in the Gambia is exactly the sort of thing that would allow Jammeh to call his supporters to the streets to resist the coup using the anti-Colonist banner which is so popular amongst African leaders such as Robert Mugabe and Julius Malema.
About an hour after I went to bed this morning Jammeh took to the TV screens to once again assure the Gambian people that he is leaving. No timescale for this departure was given but the rumours I've heard suggest that Jammeh is demanding a three day extension which will take us up to Monday January 23rd 2017 (23/1/17).
Jammeh's hope is that this will be enough time for him to rally supporters to the streets to resist the old colonial master and their puppet.
Obviously at this point it is extremely tempting for me to just stab Britain in the eye as punishment. However I should probably make two things clear;
Firstly Britain's attempts to remove Jammeh only began after Jammeh refused to honour the result of the election. Britain did not rig that election and Jammeh himself has said Adama Barrow won fair and square.
Secondly I considered all this before deciding to support efforts to remove Jammeh. Hence the slight delay.
16:05 on 21/1/17 (UK date).
On December 1st 2016 (1/12/16) the Gambia held a Presidential election. The three candidates were;
- Yahya Jammeh representing the Alliance for Patriotic Reorientation and Construction (APRC). Jammeh was the incumbent having seized power in a 1994 coup.
- Adama Barrow representing the "Coalition 2016" coalition of seven Gambian political parties as a member of the United Democratic Party (UDP).
- Mammah Kandeh a former member of the APRC who stood in this election representing the Gambian Democratic Congress (GDC).
- Adama Barrow - 227,708 (43.3%),
- Yahya Jammeh - 208, 487 (39.6%)
- Mammah Kandeh - 89,768 (17.1%).
On December 2nd 2016 (2/12/16) Yahya Jammeh conceded defeat and telephoned Adama Barrow telling him; "You are elected president of The Gambia, and I wish you all the best."
However then Jammeh seemed to realise that giving up the Presidency would also mean giving up his immunity from prosecution. As a man who has jailed and murdered dozens of political opponents that could cause Jammeh quite a lot of problems.
So on December 9th 2016 (9/12/16) Jammeh appeared on television to announce that he was disputing the election the result and would not leave until Gambia's Supreme Court had ruled on the matter.
The problem is that Gambia hasn't had a functioning Supreme Court since May 2015 when Jammeh dismissed the six Judges who sit on it along with the Chief Justice. The Gambia currently doesn't even have its own Chief Justice having been forced to borrow Emmanuel Oluwasegun Fagbenle from Nigeria.
With the Supreme Court being unable to rule on the election result Jammeh saying that he will not step down until the Supreme Court rules is the same as Jammeh saying that he will not step down. Jammeh reinforced this message by deploying the Gambian military to key locations across the country on December 10th 2016 (10/12/16).
On December 12th 2016 (12/12/16) the Gambian bar association held an emergency meeting. They passed a resolution declaring Jammeh's refusal to accept the election result to be tantamount to treason and called on Chief Justice Fagbenle to resign for gross misconduct both by campaigning for Jammeh prior to the election and secretly appointing ineligible Judges to the Supreme Court after the election.
The Gambian bar association were joined by similar calls from the University of Gambia, the Gambian teachers union, the Gambian medical association, the Gambian press union and the Gambia's Supreme Islamic Council.
On December 13th 2016 (13/12/16) Jammeh sent the Gambian security forces to storm the offices of the Electoral Commission. They closed down those offices and expelled many of the commission's employees from the country.
On January 1st & 2nd 2017 (1&2/1/17) the Gambian National Intelligence Agency shut down several radio private stations to prevent them reporting that Barrow had won the election. On January 10th 2017 (10/1/17) Jammeh dismissed 12 Gambian Ambassadors for recognising the election of Barrow effectively expelling them from the country.
On January 17th 2017 (17/1/17) - the day before his mandate expired - Jammeh imposed a 90 day State of Emergency. It was around this time that Barrow himself was forced to flee the Gambia for Senegal fearing for his safety.
Yesterday - January 19th 2017 (19/1/17) Adama Barrow was sworn in as Gambia's President as scheduled at a formal ceremony at the Gambian Embassy in Senegal which is considered Gambian sovereign territory.
Adama Barrow's first act as Gambian President was to call on the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) to assist the Gambian people in removing Yahya Jammeh from the Presidential Palace in the Gambia's capital Banjul where he is now nothing more than a squatter. This call was immediately answered by Senegal, Nigeria and Ghana.
The United Nations Security Council (UNSC) have also considered Barrow's request for assistance. It recognised him as the President on the Gambia and called on Jammeh to vacate the Presidential Palace. However it stopped short of authorising military action.
That is because under the UN Charter the territorial integrity of nation - it's borders - and it's sovereignty - what happens within those borders - are considered to be almost inviolable. The only way the UNSC can authorise military action is under Chapter 7. The messes we have seen in Libya, Syria and Yemen show that Chapter 7 should only ever be used as an absolute last resort.
In this case though Chapter 7 is something that is most certainly on the table for discussion
Also there is no need for the UNSC to authorise military action. With Adama Barrow being the President of the Gambia this is viewed as him merely asking his allies - on behalf of the Gambian people - to help solve an internal security problem. That is something the Gambian President is fully entitled to do under the principles of sovereignty and territorial integrity.
Following the UNSC meeting the ECOWAS troops did cross into the Gambia. They paused their advance until 12:00 GMT today in order to give Jammeh one last chance to peacefully step aside.
The head of the Gambian military Ousman Badjie has since come out and said that he will not send his force of roughly 2,700 men to fight for Jammeh. He then proceeded to go out and dance in the streets in celebration of Barrow's inauguration.
The remaining concern though is that without the protection of the armed forces Jammeh will still attempt to send his supporters into the streets to resist the transition of power. Both by attacking the advancing ECOWAS troops and Barrow's supporters.
It is worth noting though that nearly 36% of the people of the Gambia voted to get Jammeh out of power while only 23% voted to keep him.
Even amongst those who voted for Jammeh many of them understand that if you lose an election then you have to leave power. Otherwise there is no point having elections.
13:30 on 20/1/17 (UK date).
Edited at around 15:20 on 21/1/17 (UK date) to add;
Well this is embarrassing.
Particularly if you live in somewhere like Britain and you work outside you know that you must never, ever utter the phrase; "Well at least it's not raining."
Likewise if you have troops assembled ready to go into action you never tempt fate by saying; "This is going to be easy."
However I was rather confident that attempts to evict Yahya Jammeh from Gambia's Presidential Palace would run relatively smoothly. That's because there is a hidden hand of conspiracy coordinating efforts. Albeit a clumsy one it is one I know well - Britain's MI6.
In October 2013 Yahya Jammeh withdrew the Gambia from the UK Commonwealth. Having lived in London, UK Adama Barrow has promised that as President he will restore the Gambia's membership of the UK Commonwealth.
The big plan behind the UK leaving the European Union (EU) in the Brexit is that it will allow the UK to trade more freely with the Commonwealth. So the Gambia returning to being a member of the Commonwealth is probably more important to the UK than it is to the Gambia.
Between 19:00 and 19:25 (GMT) last night someone entered the grounds of my property and smashed in a wooden door of one of the outbuildings. With nothing being stolen this was intended to send the coded message that Britain would soon smash down the door of the Gambia's Presidential Palace and force Jammeh out.
Rather than being intimidated or being angry in response to this I have to say that I was too busy being stunned by one of what has to be one of the dumbest moves I have ever seen.
Yahya Jammeh is an absolute chancer. He will try and use anything in a desperate effort to cling to power.
For example back in December 2016 he noticed that people in UN circles were using him to discuss that other Islamist dictator Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Jammeh's calculation was that this would help him stay in power because people at the UN would enjoy having him around to keep the conversation going.
Yesterday the ECOWAS forcing announced that they were halting their advance until 12:00 (GMT) to give Jammeh one last chance to vacate the Presidential Palace.
In itself this timing was extremely clumsy because every day at that time I tend to be on the Internet to catch up on the overnight night developments. With the wars in Syria and Iraq both at critical stages much as I'd like too I can't really take a full day off from the Internet. Not least because it was only by logging on to Twitter that I found out about this midday ultimatum.
Rather predictably Jammeh exploited the tension of the situation to get the deadline extended to 16:00 (GMT). This is the moment that Donald Trump's inauguration as US President began. Jammeh was obviously hoping the tension of that would allow him to exert pressure on those pleading with him to go.
Although the ceremony began at 16:00 it wasn't until 17:00 (GMT) Donald Trump was actually sworn in. It was at this moment Jammeh assured the ECOWAS representatives that he would vacate the Presidential Palace. He just needed a few more hours to assemble his government, prepare a public address and say his goodbyes.
Announcing two hours into that window that the UK is staging a coup in the Gambia is exactly the sort of thing that would allow Jammeh to call his supporters to the streets to resist the coup using the anti-Colonist banner which is so popular amongst African leaders such as Robert Mugabe and Julius Malema.
About an hour after I went to bed this morning Jammeh took to the TV screens to once again assure the Gambian people that he is leaving. No timescale for this departure was given but the rumours I've heard suggest that Jammeh is demanding a three day extension which will take us up to Monday January 23rd 2017 (23/1/17).
Jammeh's hope is that this will be enough time for him to rally supporters to the streets to resist the old colonial master and their puppet.
Obviously at this point it is extremely tempting for me to just stab Britain in the eye as punishment. However I should probably make two things clear;
Firstly Britain's attempts to remove Jammeh only began after Jammeh refused to honour the result of the election. Britain did not rig that election and Jammeh himself has said Adama Barrow won fair and square.
Secondly I considered all this before deciding to support efforts to remove Jammeh. Hence the slight delay.
16:05 on 21/1/17 (UK date).
Wednesday, 18 January 2017
Operation Featherweight: Month 30, Week 4, Day 7.
This should be read as a continuation of; http://watchitdie.blogspot.co.uk/2017/01/operation-featherweight-month-30-week-4_16.html
In that post I wrote about the agreement between the Syrians and the Army of Conquest/Jaish al-Fatah (JAF) coalition.
This sees the Army of Conquest leave the areas of Wadi Barada and Ayn al-Fijeh - roughly 10km (6 miles) north-west of Damascus - and head to the areas around Idlib City some 360km (216 miles) to the north. The plan is modelled on the agreement which followed the December 12th 2016 (12/12/16) liberation of Aleppo City. That too would see members of the Army of Conquest flee to the Idlib area.
Prior to the liberation of Aleppo City there were 11 camps for Internally Displaced Persons (IDP's) in the Idlib area. These are run by a variety of Non-Governmental Organisations (NGO's), armed groups, local landowners and the IDP's themselves.
However following the liberation of Aleppo City Turkish President/Prime Minister/Emperor Recep Tayyip Erdogan announced his intention to build a new camp. This camp would be run by Turkey and protected by the Turkish military.
As Turkey has done in Jarablus on the western bank of the Euphrates River as it flows from Turkey the purpose of this camp would be to establish the area as part of Turkey. Not only would you have the Turkish military providing security you would have Turkish hospitals providing healthcare and Turkish schools teaching in the Turkish language.
Erdogan's plan for a new Ottoman Empire is very much modelled on Adolf Hitler's invasion of Czechoslovakia in 1938. Here Nazi Germany supported local allies in conducting terror attacks within Czechoslovakia's border region. They then used these attacks as an excuse to invade and annex the Sudetenland as part of Nazi Germany under the pretence of protecting civilians. As such this area around Idlib City has been designated; "The Sudetenland."
Initially no specific camp was established. However the idea of these Turkish camp or possibly camps have been designated; "Long Kesh." In keeping with the theme of the Northern Irish Troubles this is a reference to the infamous Long Kesh internment camp established in Lisburn, Northern Ireland in 1971.
Turkey has now established the first of its Long Kesh camps in the Kammaunah area of Idlib province. I am though still trying to find an exact location.
However due to the December 29th 2016 (29/12/16) ceasefire Turkey has not been able to establish the camp to the extent that it would like. For example it has not been able to bring in military forces to provide security nor has it been able to bring in medical or educational facilities. It has though been able to bring in some 4,000 heated winter tents and some 700 truck loads of other supplies.
Turkey has also been able to establish a second Long Kesh camp. This time in the roughly 100km (60 mile) stretch of Syria's border with Turkey known as; "Garvaghy Road." Specifically at Igde village close to Azaz on the western boundary of Garvaghy Road.
As this area has been under Turkish military occupation since August 2016 this Igde camp is being provided with security by the Turkish military. The camp itself is run by Diyanet - the department of the Turkish government dedicated to promoting the Turkish version of Islam both at home and abroad. It has heated winter tents for 6,000 people although Turkey does not yet seem to have been able to establish medical an educational facilities as it has done in Jarablus or the other side of Garvaghy Road.
Initially Erdogan's plans for Long Kesh camps was met with vocal support from the US.
On December 29th 2016 (29/12/16) the New York Police Department (NYPD) announced that it would allow Sikh officers to wear long beards and hair under turbans as their religion requires. The religious obligation on Sikh men not to cut their hair or beards is known as; "Kesh." As such this was the NYPD who were very much the spotlight ahead of the New Year's Eve (31/12/16) celebrations giving permission for Long Kesh.
At the time I commented that seemed more like something Chicago's Police Department (CPD) would do. After all in August 2015 it was revealed that CPD had operated an off-the-books internment facility known as "Homan Square"where allegations of torture abounded.
The US' initial support for Long Kesh was met by a stony silence from the US' traditional allies. This seems to have prompted the US to withdraw its support.
On Tuesday January 3rd 2017 (3/1/17) a particularly unpleasant video was broadcast live on Facebook. It showed four black Chicago teens taunting, beating and torturing a white Chicago teen who is reported to suffer from some sort of learning disability or other sort of mental vulnerability.
Obviously everybody was outraged at how one of the most vulnerable of society could be mistreated. That should reflect the outrage that everybody feels at Erdogan's attempts to forcibly transfer civilians from Aleppo City to the Long Kesh camps for them to be used a human shields to protect the Army of Conquest in their attempts to establish a new Ottoman Empire in the Sudetenland. From the way the torturers cut the victim's hair from his scalp it's clear that they are no fans of Long Kesh.
The fact that the torturers were black while their victim was white along with the fact they shouted both anti-white and anti-Trump slogans throughout the attack would suggest that they are supporters of outgoing US President Obama's Black Lives Matter (BLM) movement. Obama's inability to recognise the terrorism of Black Lives Matter could help explain his inability to recognise the terrorism of Erdogan, the Army of Conquest and the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL).
The fact that the torturers engaged in the stereotypically Native American practice of; "Scalping" - cutting the hair and scalp from the head - seemed to be a reference to the way BLM tried to recruit Native Americans as their allies against the oppression of white Caucasians. The fact that Native Americans are white Caucasians is just further evidence that Obama and BLM don't enjoy the best relationship with reality.
Finally it highlighted that with 762 murders in 2016 alone Obama's adopted city which is now run by his former Chief-of-Staff Rahm Emmanuel is a complete mess. The fact that one of the Obama's administration's last acts was to further fire up the BLM cause by releasing a report on January 13th 2017 (13/1/17) accusing the CPD of racism further underlined the relief many a feeling that the childlike Obama regime is finally coming to an end.
Also on Friday January 13th 2017 (13/1/17) there was a shooting at an airport in Fort Lauderdale in the US state of Florida.
At the time the shooting took place incoming President Donald Trump was being presented with the Directorate of National Intelligence's (DNI's) rather comedy report into Russia hacking. Therefore as I said at the time this was primarily a way for the US intelligence community to get the measure of their new Commander-in-Chief.
For example the DNI report was complied using the Estimative Language technique which is also used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Trump's claim that climate change doesn't exist won't wash in the US state of Alaska where the gunman arrived from. They can see it happening.
Also the specific airport was Fort Lauderdale-Hollywood. You only needed to take a little glimpse at the January 15th 2017 (15/1/17) Golden Globe Awards to see how popular Donald Trump is in the much more famous Hollywood, California. With the inauguration coming up on January 20th 2017 (20/1/17) you would think that the lack of celebrity endorsements might be playing on Donald Trump's mind.
However the Fort Lauderdale airport shooting also encompassed elements of the fight against ISIL and the Army of Conquest.
For example much was made of the fact that the gunman - Esteban Santiago - had carried his gun in luggage aboard a flight from Alaska. On December 29th 2016 (29/12/16) I returned from the very British military city of Salisbury carrying a mysterious black bag that I had picked up on my travels. Given all the death threats a lot of people just assume I should be armed at this point.
The specific weapon used by Santiago was a Walther 9mm handgun. This is almost exactly the same type of weapon used by Turkish police officer Mevlut Altintas to assassinated Russian Ambassador Andrei Karlov in Ankara on December 19th 2016 (19/12/16). With Russia entitled to consider this an act of war against it by Turkey people are obviously interested to see how Russia will react.
Despite it being a different city the US state of Florida was of course the scene of the June 12th 2016 (12/6/16) terror attack at the Pulse nightclub in Orlando. The majority of the 49 victims of that attack were Hispanic. A native of Peurto Rico Esteban Santiago is also Hispanic.
On January 1st 2017 (1/1/17) Erdogan staged a terror attack against the Reina nightclub in Istanbul. This was intended to reference the Pulse nightclub attack. Not least in a call for Obama to end US support for the anti-ISIL Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF).
So I think it's fair to assume that the voice in Obama's head telling him to support ISIL has a name.
Esteban Santiago made his first scheduled Court appearance on Tuesday (17/1/17). The night before Turkish authorities suddenly managed to arrest the suspect in the Reina attack -Abdulkadir Masharipov - in Istanbul following what doesn't seem to have been a particularly effective 16 day manhunt.
It is claimed that under questioning Masharipov confessed to the attack and said that he was trained by ISIL in Afghanistan. With Masharipov being an Uzbek national this further connects the Reina attack with the Pulse attack which was carried out by Omar Mateen - a Pashtu national of Afghanistan. It seems then to be a further threat to the US; Either give Erdogan exactly what he wants or he will start using ISIL to cause trouble for the US in Afghanistan too.
During the manhunt Turkish have not so much been implying but openly saying that Masharipov was directed by an unnamed foreign intelligence agency. The Turkish people have long been conditioned to assume that means America's CIA. However it has since been claimed that Masharipov travelled from Afghanistan to Turkey via Iran. Although it's yet to play out that seems to be Erdogan laying the groundwork for blaming Iran for the attack ahead of the January 23rd (23/1/17) Astana talks.
It has also been claimed that the Reina nightclub was not Masharipov's intended target. Apparently he'd intended to attack New Year's Eve celebrations in Istanbul's Taksim square had been deterred by the might of Erdogan's heroic, intelligent and handsome police force and their security plans. Therefore it is claimed that the Reina nightclub was a target of opportunity chosen at the last minute.
It is probably worth noting that along with Qatar Turkey is currently in negotiations with Saudi Arabia to provide funding for the Long Kesh camp at Kammaunah. That would certainly give Erdogan incentive to distance himself from an attack that killed 7 Saudi nationals.
Back within Iraq the operation to liberate the city of Mosul from ISIL continues at some pace.
In my post on Saturday (14/1/17) I said that the Iraqi Security Forces (ISF) had secured the sprawling Mosul University campus. Sitting adjacent to the Nineveh Ruins this widely considered to mark the centre of the eastern side of the city - the left bank.
To the south-east of the Nineveh Ruins the ISF had succeeded in entering but not fully liberating Jonah's Tomb.
Along the bank of the Tigris River the ISF had liberated the al-Faisaliah neighbourhood. This gave them control of three of the five bridges crossing the Tigris.
Since then the ISF have advanced westwards from the Mosul University campus liberating the al-Andalus and Shurta neighbourhoods that sit between it and the M80 Road.
The ISF have also succeeded in liberating Jonah's Tomb and the surrounding area. They have since pressed eastwards liberating the al-Jazar and Nineveh al-Sharqiyah neighbourhoods that sit directly south of the Nineveh Ruins.
Along the bank of the Tigris the ISF have also succeeded in liberating the Az Zari'a and parts of the Althaqafa neighbourhoods. This includes Mosul's Grand Mosque located in the Az Zari'a neighbourhood which is where Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi declared ISIL to be a Caliphate and him its Caliph on June 30th 2014 (30/6/14). However they have not yet succeeded in securing the last two of Mosul's bridges.
Based on these gains as of midnight last night (17/1/17) ISIL are now restricted to just a small presence in the Nineveh Ruins and the al-Arabi and Rashidiyah neighbourhoods to the very north of Mosul's left bank along with a small presence around the two remaining bridges.
Today the commander of the ISF's elite Counter Terrorism Service (CTS/Golden Division) Lt. Gen Talib al-Shaqati declared that the east of Mosul had been fully liberated. This was quickly corrected by Lt. Gen. Abdul Amir Rashid Yarallah, the overall commander of the operation.
Although the Golden Division have completed their objectives I to think it is too early to declare eastern Mosul fully liberated. However if you ask me the same question tomorrow I may well have a different answer for you.
Once the east of Mosul has been fully liberated and secured it raises the question of how to tackle western Mosul. I think it would be sensible to pause and carefully consider a plan before rushing into action.
In much of the English speaking world we have a saying; "More haste, less speed." Essentially it means that it is better to wait a week to plan things out than to rush in and waste two weeks because you haven't planned things properly. As I'm sure I don't need to remind anyone there is more at stake than time in this operation.
At around 18:20 on 18/1/17 (UK date) I will proof read this after dinner.
20:35 on 18/1/17 (UK date).
In that post I wrote about the agreement between the Syrians and the Army of Conquest/Jaish al-Fatah (JAF) coalition.
This sees the Army of Conquest leave the areas of Wadi Barada and Ayn al-Fijeh - roughly 10km (6 miles) north-west of Damascus - and head to the areas around Idlib City some 360km (216 miles) to the north. The plan is modelled on the agreement which followed the December 12th 2016 (12/12/16) liberation of Aleppo City. That too would see members of the Army of Conquest flee to the Idlib area.
Prior to the liberation of Aleppo City there were 11 camps for Internally Displaced Persons (IDP's) in the Idlib area. These are run by a variety of Non-Governmental Organisations (NGO's), armed groups, local landowners and the IDP's themselves.
However following the liberation of Aleppo City Turkish President/Prime Minister/Emperor Recep Tayyip Erdogan announced his intention to build a new camp. This camp would be run by Turkey and protected by the Turkish military.
As Turkey has done in Jarablus on the western bank of the Euphrates River as it flows from Turkey the purpose of this camp would be to establish the area as part of Turkey. Not only would you have the Turkish military providing security you would have Turkish hospitals providing healthcare and Turkish schools teaching in the Turkish language.
Erdogan's plan for a new Ottoman Empire is very much modelled on Adolf Hitler's invasion of Czechoslovakia in 1938. Here Nazi Germany supported local allies in conducting terror attacks within Czechoslovakia's border region. They then used these attacks as an excuse to invade and annex the Sudetenland as part of Nazi Germany under the pretence of protecting civilians. As such this area around Idlib City has been designated; "The Sudetenland."
Initially no specific camp was established. However the idea of these Turkish camp or possibly camps have been designated; "Long Kesh." In keeping with the theme of the Northern Irish Troubles this is a reference to the infamous Long Kesh internment camp established in Lisburn, Northern Ireland in 1971.
Turkey has now established the first of its Long Kesh camps in the Kammaunah area of Idlib province. I am though still trying to find an exact location.
However due to the December 29th 2016 (29/12/16) ceasefire Turkey has not been able to establish the camp to the extent that it would like. For example it has not been able to bring in military forces to provide security nor has it been able to bring in medical or educational facilities. It has though been able to bring in some 4,000 heated winter tents and some 700 truck loads of other supplies.
Turkey has also been able to establish a second Long Kesh camp. This time in the roughly 100km (60 mile) stretch of Syria's border with Turkey known as; "Garvaghy Road." Specifically at Igde village close to Azaz on the western boundary of Garvaghy Road.
As this area has been under Turkish military occupation since August 2016 this Igde camp is being provided with security by the Turkish military. The camp itself is run by Diyanet - the department of the Turkish government dedicated to promoting the Turkish version of Islam both at home and abroad. It has heated winter tents for 6,000 people although Turkey does not yet seem to have been able to establish medical an educational facilities as it has done in Jarablus or the other side of Garvaghy Road.
Initially Erdogan's plans for Long Kesh camps was met with vocal support from the US.
On December 29th 2016 (29/12/16) the New York Police Department (NYPD) announced that it would allow Sikh officers to wear long beards and hair under turbans as their religion requires. The religious obligation on Sikh men not to cut their hair or beards is known as; "Kesh." As such this was the NYPD who were very much the spotlight ahead of the New Year's Eve (31/12/16) celebrations giving permission for Long Kesh.
At the time I commented that seemed more like something Chicago's Police Department (CPD) would do. After all in August 2015 it was revealed that CPD had operated an off-the-books internment facility known as "Homan Square"where allegations of torture abounded.
The US' initial support for Long Kesh was met by a stony silence from the US' traditional allies. This seems to have prompted the US to withdraw its support.
On Tuesday January 3rd 2017 (3/1/17) a particularly unpleasant video was broadcast live on Facebook. It showed four black Chicago teens taunting, beating and torturing a white Chicago teen who is reported to suffer from some sort of learning disability or other sort of mental vulnerability.
Obviously everybody was outraged at how one of the most vulnerable of society could be mistreated. That should reflect the outrage that everybody feels at Erdogan's attempts to forcibly transfer civilians from Aleppo City to the Long Kesh camps for them to be used a human shields to protect the Army of Conquest in their attempts to establish a new Ottoman Empire in the Sudetenland. From the way the torturers cut the victim's hair from his scalp it's clear that they are no fans of Long Kesh.
The fact that the torturers were black while their victim was white along with the fact they shouted both anti-white and anti-Trump slogans throughout the attack would suggest that they are supporters of outgoing US President Obama's Black Lives Matter (BLM) movement. Obama's inability to recognise the terrorism of Black Lives Matter could help explain his inability to recognise the terrorism of Erdogan, the Army of Conquest and the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL).
The fact that the torturers engaged in the stereotypically Native American practice of; "Scalping" - cutting the hair and scalp from the head - seemed to be a reference to the way BLM tried to recruit Native Americans as their allies against the oppression of white Caucasians. The fact that Native Americans are white Caucasians is just further evidence that Obama and BLM don't enjoy the best relationship with reality.
Finally it highlighted that with 762 murders in 2016 alone Obama's adopted city which is now run by his former Chief-of-Staff Rahm Emmanuel is a complete mess. The fact that one of the Obama's administration's last acts was to further fire up the BLM cause by releasing a report on January 13th 2017 (13/1/17) accusing the CPD of racism further underlined the relief many a feeling that the childlike Obama regime is finally coming to an end.
Also on Friday January 13th 2017 (13/1/17) there was a shooting at an airport in Fort Lauderdale in the US state of Florida.
At the time the shooting took place incoming President Donald Trump was being presented with the Directorate of National Intelligence's (DNI's) rather comedy report into Russia hacking. Therefore as I said at the time this was primarily a way for the US intelligence community to get the measure of their new Commander-in-Chief.
For example the DNI report was complied using the Estimative Language technique which is also used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Trump's claim that climate change doesn't exist won't wash in the US state of Alaska where the gunman arrived from. They can see it happening.
Also the specific airport was Fort Lauderdale-Hollywood. You only needed to take a little glimpse at the January 15th 2017 (15/1/17) Golden Globe Awards to see how popular Donald Trump is in the much more famous Hollywood, California. With the inauguration coming up on January 20th 2017 (20/1/17) you would think that the lack of celebrity endorsements might be playing on Donald Trump's mind.
However the Fort Lauderdale airport shooting also encompassed elements of the fight against ISIL and the Army of Conquest.
For example much was made of the fact that the gunman - Esteban Santiago - had carried his gun in luggage aboard a flight from Alaska. On December 29th 2016 (29/12/16) I returned from the very British military city of Salisbury carrying a mysterious black bag that I had picked up on my travels. Given all the death threats a lot of people just assume I should be armed at this point.
The specific weapon used by Santiago was a Walther 9mm handgun. This is almost exactly the same type of weapon used by Turkish police officer Mevlut Altintas to assassinated Russian Ambassador Andrei Karlov in Ankara on December 19th 2016 (19/12/16). With Russia entitled to consider this an act of war against it by Turkey people are obviously interested to see how Russia will react.
Despite it being a different city the US state of Florida was of course the scene of the June 12th 2016 (12/6/16) terror attack at the Pulse nightclub in Orlando. The majority of the 49 victims of that attack were Hispanic. A native of Peurto Rico Esteban Santiago is also Hispanic.
On January 1st 2017 (1/1/17) Erdogan staged a terror attack against the Reina nightclub in Istanbul. This was intended to reference the Pulse nightclub attack. Not least in a call for Obama to end US support for the anti-ISIL Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF).
So I think it's fair to assume that the voice in Obama's head telling him to support ISIL has a name.
Esteban Santiago made his first scheduled Court appearance on Tuesday (17/1/17). The night before Turkish authorities suddenly managed to arrest the suspect in the Reina attack -Abdulkadir Masharipov - in Istanbul following what doesn't seem to have been a particularly effective 16 day manhunt.
It is claimed that under questioning Masharipov confessed to the attack and said that he was trained by ISIL in Afghanistan. With Masharipov being an Uzbek national this further connects the Reina attack with the Pulse attack which was carried out by Omar Mateen - a Pashtu national of Afghanistan. It seems then to be a further threat to the US; Either give Erdogan exactly what he wants or he will start using ISIL to cause trouble for the US in Afghanistan too.
During the manhunt Turkish have not so much been implying but openly saying that Masharipov was directed by an unnamed foreign intelligence agency. The Turkish people have long been conditioned to assume that means America's CIA. However it has since been claimed that Masharipov travelled from Afghanistan to Turkey via Iran. Although it's yet to play out that seems to be Erdogan laying the groundwork for blaming Iran for the attack ahead of the January 23rd (23/1/17) Astana talks.
It has also been claimed that the Reina nightclub was not Masharipov's intended target. Apparently he'd intended to attack New Year's Eve celebrations in Istanbul's Taksim square had been deterred by the might of Erdogan's heroic, intelligent and handsome police force and their security plans. Therefore it is claimed that the Reina nightclub was a target of opportunity chosen at the last minute.
It is probably worth noting that along with Qatar Turkey is currently in negotiations with Saudi Arabia to provide funding for the Long Kesh camp at Kammaunah. That would certainly give Erdogan incentive to distance himself from an attack that killed 7 Saudi nationals.
Back within Iraq the operation to liberate the city of Mosul from ISIL continues at some pace.
In my post on Saturday (14/1/17) I said that the Iraqi Security Forces (ISF) had secured the sprawling Mosul University campus. Sitting adjacent to the Nineveh Ruins this widely considered to mark the centre of the eastern side of the city - the left bank.
To the south-east of the Nineveh Ruins the ISF had succeeded in entering but not fully liberating Jonah's Tomb.
Along the bank of the Tigris River the ISF had liberated the al-Faisaliah neighbourhood. This gave them control of three of the five bridges crossing the Tigris.
Since then the ISF have advanced westwards from the Mosul University campus liberating the al-Andalus and Shurta neighbourhoods that sit between it and the M80 Road.
The ISF have also succeeded in liberating Jonah's Tomb and the surrounding area. They have since pressed eastwards liberating the al-Jazar and Nineveh al-Sharqiyah neighbourhoods that sit directly south of the Nineveh Ruins.
Along the bank of the Tigris the ISF have also succeeded in liberating the Az Zari'a and parts of the Althaqafa neighbourhoods. This includes Mosul's Grand Mosque located in the Az Zari'a neighbourhood which is where Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi declared ISIL to be a Caliphate and him its Caliph on June 30th 2014 (30/6/14). However they have not yet succeeded in securing the last two of Mosul's bridges.
Based on these gains as of midnight last night (17/1/17) ISIL are now restricted to just a small presence in the Nineveh Ruins and the al-Arabi and Rashidiyah neighbourhoods to the very north of Mosul's left bank along with a small presence around the two remaining bridges.
Today the commander of the ISF's elite Counter Terrorism Service (CTS/Golden Division) Lt. Gen Talib al-Shaqati declared that the east of Mosul had been fully liberated. This was quickly corrected by Lt. Gen. Abdul Amir Rashid Yarallah, the overall commander of the operation.
Although the Golden Division have completed their objectives I to think it is too early to declare eastern Mosul fully liberated. However if you ask me the same question tomorrow I may well have a different answer for you.
Once the east of Mosul has been fully liberated and secured it raises the question of how to tackle western Mosul. I think it would be sensible to pause and carefully consider a plan before rushing into action.
In much of the English speaking world we have a saying; "More haste, less speed." Essentially it means that it is better to wait a week to plan things out than to rush in and waste two weeks because you haven't planned things properly. As I'm sure I don't need to remind anyone there is more at stake than time in this operation.
At around 18:20 on 18/1/17 (UK date) I will proof read this after dinner.
20:35 on 18/1/17 (UK date).
Tuesday, 17 January 2017
No Helicopters Required.
Long time readers will know that about a decade ago I was volunteering for a UK charity called Mind. The purpose of the exercise was to improve the rehabilitation of people suffering from mental illness. After all as with physical illness suffering from mental illness can be a bit crap.
Unfortunately the estate of the Church of England Protestant Bishop of Whitgift who were funding the project made some poor choices. So I quit and took my protection with me.
Mind have now recruited my sister. In the autumn of 2016 she was the guest of honour at a parliamentary meetings of the lower House of Commons. As our grandmother used to regularly attend meetings of the upper House of Lords that alone seemed like an insult.
Sunday (15/1/17) saw the finale of season 4 of the BBC's "Sherlock." This centred around the star of the show visiting his long forgotten sister in a special secure psychiatric facility. Although I don't want to give away spoilers if you have seen it you will understand the depth of my opposition to Long Kesh.
On January 8th (8/1/17) the UK Prime Minister Theresa May gave her first big speech of the year. This focused on her plans to improve mental health care in the UK and tackle the stigma associated with the issue.
Today Prince William, his wife the Duchess of Cambridge and Prince Harry have together launched the "Head Together" campaign to tackle mental illness.
As such I think it's fair to say that Britain has been attempting to hype up the issue.
Today my father went to visit my sister. He travelled by train.
At around 16:00 this afternoon I got a phonecall from one of my lesbian mothers telling me that my father had been admitted to the emergency department of a local hospital after suffering a fall. Obviously given his mother's history and Hillary Clinton transient ischemic attacks (TIA's) are a concern.
I should point out though that both my father and my sister are rather prone to medical dramas. I should also point out that my father is exceptionally lazy. Last Thursday (12/1/17) he suffered a bout of food poisoning which left him asleep on the sofa from midday until early evening. In short exactly how he spent the previous day. He was also visibly shaken by the Sherlock finale.
So after several hours in hospital EKG and CT scans have confirmed that being a bit of a prat he simply went to sit on a stool and missed.
Also today Prime Minister May has given her first big speech outlining Britain's plans to exit from the European Union (EU) - the so-called "Brexit."
Previously Prime Minister May has said that she won't be giving a running commentary of Brexit. This is a very sensible approach to take because these negotiations will be long and complex. They have yet to start. So it is difficult - particularly for me - to give a running commentary of the negotiations without wrecking the negotiations.
For example today's speech was primarily what I would consider a range finding exercise.
The gist of it was that Britain will withdraw from both the single market and the customs union. However because Britain is so brilliant and has the cure for mental illness and everything the EU will allow grant Britain tariff free trade without it being a member of the single market or customs union.
Based on the response to this speech Britain will then assess whether this plan is in fact realistic. Obviously if it is indicated that this plan is not realistic certain members of the Conservative Party who think it is face sidelined.
Suggesting those elements may have a journey ahead of them any final agreement will be put to a full Parliamentary vote diluting their influence.
21:10 on 17/1/17 (UK date).
Unfortunately the estate of the Church of England Protestant Bishop of Whitgift who were funding the project made some poor choices. So I quit and took my protection with me.
Mind have now recruited my sister. In the autumn of 2016 she was the guest of honour at a parliamentary meetings of the lower House of Commons. As our grandmother used to regularly attend meetings of the upper House of Lords that alone seemed like an insult.
Sunday (15/1/17) saw the finale of season 4 of the BBC's "Sherlock." This centred around the star of the show visiting his long forgotten sister in a special secure psychiatric facility. Although I don't want to give away spoilers if you have seen it you will understand the depth of my opposition to Long Kesh.
On January 8th (8/1/17) the UK Prime Minister Theresa May gave her first big speech of the year. This focused on her plans to improve mental health care in the UK and tackle the stigma associated with the issue.
Today Prince William, his wife the Duchess of Cambridge and Prince Harry have together launched the "Head Together" campaign to tackle mental illness.
As such I think it's fair to say that Britain has been attempting to hype up the issue.
Today my father went to visit my sister. He travelled by train.
At around 16:00 this afternoon I got a phonecall from one of my lesbian mothers telling me that my father had been admitted to the emergency department of a local hospital after suffering a fall. Obviously given his mother's history and Hillary Clinton transient ischemic attacks (TIA's) are a concern.
I should point out though that both my father and my sister are rather prone to medical dramas. I should also point out that my father is exceptionally lazy. Last Thursday (12/1/17) he suffered a bout of food poisoning which left him asleep on the sofa from midday until early evening. In short exactly how he spent the previous day. He was also visibly shaken by the Sherlock finale.
So after several hours in hospital EKG and CT scans have confirmed that being a bit of a prat he simply went to sit on a stool and missed.
Also today Prime Minister May has given her first big speech outlining Britain's plans to exit from the European Union (EU) - the so-called "Brexit."
Previously Prime Minister May has said that she won't be giving a running commentary of Brexit. This is a very sensible approach to take because these negotiations will be long and complex. They have yet to start. So it is difficult - particularly for me - to give a running commentary of the negotiations without wrecking the negotiations.
For example today's speech was primarily what I would consider a range finding exercise.
The gist of it was that Britain will withdraw from both the single market and the customs union. However because Britain is so brilliant and has the cure for mental illness and everything the EU will allow grant Britain tariff free trade without it being a member of the single market or customs union.
Based on the response to this speech Britain will then assess whether this plan is in fact realistic. Obviously if it is indicated that this plan is not realistic certain members of the Conservative Party who think it is face sidelined.
Suggesting those elements may have a journey ahead of them any final agreement will be put to a full Parliamentary vote diluting their influence.
21:10 on 17/1/17 (UK date).
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