Operation Featherweight: Month 30, Week 4, Day 7.

This should be read as a continuation of; http://watchitdie.blogspot.co.uk/2017/01/operation-featherweight-month-30-week-4_16.html

In that post I wrote about the agreement between the Syrians and the Army of Conquest/Jaish al-Fatah (JAF) coalition.

This sees the Army of Conquest leave the areas of Wadi Barada and Ayn al-Fijeh - roughly 10km (6 miles) north-west of Damascus - and head to the areas around Idlib City some 360km (216 miles) to the north. The plan is modelled on the agreement which followed the December 12th 2016 (12/12/16) liberation of Aleppo City. That too would see members of the Army of Conquest flee to the Idlib area.

Prior to the liberation of Aleppo City there were 11 camps for Internally Displaced Persons (IDP's) in the Idlib area. These are run by a variety of Non-Governmental Organisations (NGO's), armed groups, local landowners and the IDP's themselves.

However following the liberation of Aleppo City Turkish President/Prime Minister/Emperor Recep Tayyip Erdogan announced his intention to build a new camp. This camp would be run by Turkey and protected by the Turkish military.

As Turkey has done in Jarablus on the western bank of the Euphrates River as it flows from Turkey the purpose of this camp would be to establish the area as part of Turkey. Not only would you have the Turkish military providing security you would have Turkish hospitals providing healthcare and Turkish schools teaching in the Turkish language.

Erdogan's plan for a new Ottoman Empire is very much modelled on Adolf Hitler's invasion of Czechoslovakia in 1938. Here Nazi Germany supported local allies in conducting terror attacks within Czechoslovakia's border region. They then used these attacks as an excuse to invade and annex the Sudetenland as part of Nazi Germany under the pretence of protecting civilians. As such this area around Idlib City has been designated; "The Sudetenland."

Initially no specific camp was established. However the idea of these Turkish camp or possibly camps have been designated; "Long Kesh." In keeping with the theme of the Northern Irish Troubles this is a reference to the infamous Long Kesh internment camp established in Lisburn, Northern Ireland in 1971.

Turkey has now established the first of its Long Kesh camps in the Kammaunah area of Idlib province. I am though still trying to find an exact location.

However due to the December 29th 2016 (29/12/16) ceasefire Turkey has not been able to establish the camp to the extent that it would like. For example it has not been able to bring in military forces to provide security nor has it been able to bring in medical or educational facilities. It has though been able to bring in some 4,000 heated winter tents and some 700 truck loads of other supplies.

Turkey has also been able to establish a second Long Kesh camp. This time in the roughly 100km (60 mile) stretch of Syria's border with Turkey known as; "Garvaghy Road." Specifically at Igde village close to Azaz on the western boundary of Garvaghy Road.

As this area has been under Turkish military occupation since August 2016 this Igde camp is being provided with security by the Turkish military. The camp itself is run by Diyanet - the department of the Turkish government dedicated to promoting the Turkish version of Islam both at home and abroad. It has heated winter tents for 6,000 people although Turkey does not yet seem to have been able to establish medical an educational facilities as it has done in Jarablus or the other side of Garvaghy Road.

Initially Erdogan's plans for Long Kesh camps was met with vocal support from the US.

On December 29th 2016 (29/12/16) the New York Police Department (NYPD) announced that it would allow Sikh officers to wear long beards and hair under turbans as their religion requires. The religious obligation on Sikh men not to cut their hair or beards is known as; "Kesh." As such this was the NYPD who were very much the spotlight ahead of the New Year's Eve (31/12/16) celebrations giving permission for Long Kesh.

At the time I commented that seemed more like something Chicago's Police Department (CPD) would do. After all in August 2015 it was revealed that CPD had operated an off-the-books internment facility known as "Homan Square"where allegations of torture abounded.

The US' initial support for Long Kesh was met by a stony silence from the US' traditional allies. This seems to have prompted the US to withdraw its support.

On Tuesday January 3rd 2017 (3/1/17) a particularly unpleasant video was broadcast live on Facebook. It showed four black Chicago teens taunting, beating and torturing a white Chicago teen who is reported to suffer from some sort of learning disability or other sort of mental vulnerability.

Obviously everybody was outraged at how one of the most vulnerable of society could be mistreated. That should reflect the outrage that everybody feels at Erdogan's attempts to forcibly transfer civilians from Aleppo City to the Long Kesh camps for them to be used a human shields to protect the Army of Conquest in their attempts to establish a new Ottoman Empire in the Sudetenland. From the way the torturers cut the victim's hair from his scalp it's clear that they are no fans of Long Kesh.

The fact that the torturers were black while their victim was white along with the fact they shouted both anti-white and anti-Trump slogans throughout the attack would suggest that they are supporters of outgoing US President Obama's Black Lives Matter (BLM) movement. Obama's inability to recognise the terrorism of Black Lives Matter could help explain his inability to recognise the terrorism of Erdogan, the Army of Conquest and the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL).

The fact that the torturers engaged in the stereotypically Native American practice of; "Scalping" - cutting the hair and scalp from the head - seemed to be a reference to the way BLM tried to recruit Native Americans as their allies against the oppression of white Caucasians. The fact that Native Americans are white Caucasians is just further evidence that Obama and BLM don't enjoy the best relationship with reality.

Finally it highlighted that with 762 murders in 2016 alone Obama's adopted city which is now run by his former Chief-of-Staff Rahm Emmanuel is a complete mess. The fact that one of the Obama's administration's last acts was to further fire up the BLM cause by releasing a report on January 13th 2017 (13/1/17) accusing the CPD of racism further underlined the relief many a feeling that the childlike Obama regime is finally coming to an end.

Also on Friday January 13th 2017 (13/1/17) there was a shooting at an airport in Fort Lauderdale in the US state of Florida.

At the time the shooting took place incoming President Donald Trump was being presented with the Directorate of National Intelligence's (DNI's) rather comedy report into Russia hacking. Therefore as I said at the time this was primarily a way for the US intelligence community to get the measure of their new Commander-in-Chief.

For example the DNI report was complied using the Estimative Language technique which is also used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Trump's claim that climate change doesn't exist won't wash in the US state of Alaska where the gunman arrived from. They can see it happening.

Also the specific airport was Fort Lauderdale-Hollywood. You only needed to take a little glimpse at the January 15th 2017 (15/1/17) Golden Globe Awards to see how popular Donald Trump is in the much more famous Hollywood, California. With the inauguration coming up on January 20th 2017 (20/1/17) you would think that the lack of celebrity endorsements might be playing on Donald Trump's mind.

However the Fort Lauderdale airport shooting also encompassed elements of the fight against ISIL and the Army of Conquest.

For example much was made of the fact that the gunman - Esteban Santiago - had carried his gun in luggage aboard a flight from Alaska. On December 29th 2016 (29/12/16) I returned from the very British military city of Salisbury carrying a mysterious black bag that I had picked up on my travels. Given all the death threats a lot of people just assume I should be armed at this point.

The specific weapon used by Santiago was a Walther 9mm handgun. This is almost exactly the same type of weapon used by Turkish police officer Mevlut Altintas to assassinated Russian Ambassador Andrei Karlov in Ankara on December 19th 2016 (19/12/16). With Russia entitled to consider this an act of war against it by Turkey people are obviously interested to see how Russia will react.

Despite it being a different city the US state of Florida was of course the scene of the June 12th 2016 (12/6/16) terror attack at the Pulse nightclub in Orlando. The majority of the 49 victims of that attack were Hispanic. A native of Peurto Rico Esteban Santiago is also Hispanic. 

On January 1st 2017 (1/1/17) Erdogan staged a terror attack against the Reina nightclub in Istanbul. This was intended to reference the Pulse nightclub attack. Not least in a call for Obama to end US support for the anti-ISIL Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF).

So I think it's fair to assume that the voice in Obama's head telling him to support ISIL has a name.

Esteban Santiago made his first scheduled Court appearance on Tuesday (17/1/17). The night before Turkish authorities suddenly managed to arrest the suspect in the Reina attack -Abdulkadir Masharipov - in Istanbul following what doesn't seem to have been a particularly effective 16 day manhunt.

It is claimed that under questioning Masharipov confessed to the attack and said that he was trained by ISIL in Afghanistan. With Masharipov being an Uzbek national this further connects the Reina attack with the Pulse attack which was carried out by Omar Mateen - a Pashtu national of Afghanistan. It seems then to be a further threat to the US; Either give Erdogan exactly what he wants or he will start using ISIL to cause trouble for the US in Afghanistan too.

During the manhunt Turkish have not so much been implying but openly saying that Masharipov was directed by an unnamed foreign intelligence agency. The Turkish people have long been conditioned to assume that means America's CIA. However it has since been claimed that Masharipov travelled from Afghanistan to Turkey via Iran. Although it's yet to play out that seems to be Erdogan laying the groundwork for blaming Iran for the attack ahead of the January 23rd (23/1/17) Astana talks.

It has also been claimed that the Reina nightclub was not Masharipov's intended target. Apparently he'd intended to attack New Year's Eve celebrations in Istanbul's Taksim square had been deterred by the might of Erdogan's heroic, intelligent and handsome police force and their security plans. Therefore it is claimed that the Reina nightclub was a target of opportunity chosen at the last minute.

It  is probably worth noting that along with Qatar Turkey is currently in negotiations with Saudi Arabia to provide funding for the Long Kesh camp at Kammaunah. That would certainly give Erdogan incentive to distance himself from an attack that killed 7 Saudi nationals.

Back within Iraq the operation to liberate the city of Mosul from ISIL continues at some pace.

In my post on Saturday (14/1/17) I said that the Iraqi Security Forces (ISF) had secured the sprawling Mosul University campus. Sitting adjacent to the Nineveh Ruins this widely considered to mark the centre of the eastern side of the city - the left bank. 

To the south-east of the Nineveh Ruins the ISF had succeeded in entering but not fully liberating Jonah's Tomb.

Along the bank of the Tigris River the ISF had liberated the al-Faisaliah neighbourhood. This gave them control of three of the five bridges crossing the Tigris.

Since then the ISF have advanced westwards from the Mosul University campus liberating the al-Andalus and Shurta neighbourhoods that sit between it and the M80 Road.

The ISF have also succeeded in liberating Jonah's Tomb and the surrounding area. They have since pressed eastwards liberating the al-Jazar and  Nineveh al-Sharqiyah neighbourhoods that sit directly south of the Nineveh Ruins.

Along the bank of the Tigris the ISF have also succeeded in liberating the Az Zari'a and parts of the Althaqafa neighbourhoods. This includes Mosul's Grand Mosque located in the Az Zari'a neighbourhood which is where Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi declared ISIL to be a Caliphate and him its Caliph on June 30th 2014 (30/6/14). However they have not yet succeeded in securing the last two of Mosul's bridges.

Based on these gains as of midnight last night (17/1/17) ISIL are now restricted to just a small presence in the Nineveh Ruins and the al-Arabi and Rashidiyah neighbourhoods to the very north of Mosul's left bank along with a small presence around the two remaining bridges.

Today the commander of the ISF's elite Counter Terrorism Service (CTS/Golden Division) Lt. Gen Talib al-Shaqati declared that the east of Mosul had been fully liberated. This was quickly corrected by Lt. Gen. Abdul Amir Rashid Yarallah, the overall commander of the operation.

Although the Golden Division have completed their objectives I to think it is too early to declare eastern Mosul fully liberated. However if you ask me the same question tomorrow I may well have a different answer for you.

Once the east of Mosul has been fully liberated and secured it raises the question of how to tackle western Mosul. I think it would be sensible to pause and carefully consider a plan before rushing into action.

In much of the English speaking world we have a saying; "More haste, less speed." Essentially it means that it is better to wait a week to plan things out than to rush in and waste two weeks because you haven't planned things properly. As I'm sure I don't need to remind anyone there is more at stake than time in this operation.

At around 18:20 on 18/1/17 (UK date) I will proof read this after dinner.

20:35 on 18/1/17 (UK date).

 

No Helicopters Required.

Long time readers will know that about a decade ago I was volunteering for a UK charity called Mind. The purpose of the exercise was to improve the rehabilitation of people suffering from mental illness. After all as with physical illness suffering from mental illness can be a bit crap.

Unfortunately the estate of the Church of England Protestant Bishop of Whitgift who were funding the project made some poor choices. So I quit and took my protection with me.

Mind have now recruited my sister. In the autumn of 2016 she was the guest of honour at a parliamentary meetings of the lower House of Commons. As our grandmother used to regularly attend meetings of the upper House of Lords that alone seemed like an insult.

Sunday (15/1/17) saw the finale of season 4 of the BBC's "Sherlock." This centred around the star of the show visiting his long forgotten sister in a special secure psychiatric facility. Although I don't want to give away spoilers if you have seen it you will understand the depth of my opposition to Long Kesh.

On January 8th (8/1/17) the UK Prime Minister Theresa May gave her first big speech of the year. This focused on her plans to improve mental health care in the UK and tackle the stigma associated with the issue.

Today Prince William, his wife the Duchess of Cambridge and Prince Harry have together launched the "Head Together" campaign to tackle mental illness.

As such I think it's fair to say that Britain has been attempting to hype up the issue.

Today my father went to visit my sister. He travelled by train.

At around 16:00 this afternoon I got a phonecall from one of my lesbian mothers telling me that my father had been admitted to the emergency department of a local hospital after suffering a fall. Obviously given his mother's history and Hillary Clinton transient ischemic attacks (TIA's) are a concern.

I should point out though that both my father and my sister are rather prone to medical dramas. I should also point out that my father is exceptionally lazy. Last Thursday (12/1/17) he suffered a bout of food poisoning which left him asleep on the sofa from midday until early evening. In short exactly how he spent the previous day. He was also visibly shaken by the Sherlock finale.

So after several hours in hospital EKG and CT scans have confirmed that being a bit of a prat he simply went to sit on a stool and missed.

Also today Prime Minister May has given her first big speech outlining Britain's plans to exit from the European Union (EU) - the so-called "Brexit."

Previously Prime Minister May has said that she won't be giving a running commentary of Brexit. This is a very sensible approach to take because these negotiations will be long and complex. They have yet to start. So it is difficult - particularly for me - to give a running commentary of the negotiations without wrecking the negotiations.

For example today's speech was primarily what I would consider a range finding exercise.

The gist of it was that Britain will withdraw from both the single market and the customs union. However because Britain is so brilliant and has the cure for mental illness and everything the EU will allow grant Britain tariff free trade without it being a member of the single market or customs union.

Based on the response to this speech Britain will then assess whether this plan is in fact realistic. Obviously if it is indicated that this plan is not realistic certain members of the Conservative Party who think it is face sidelined.

Suggesting those elements may have a journey ahead of them any final agreement will be put to a full Parliamentary vote diluting their influence.

21:10 on 17/1/17 (UK date).

Operation Featherweight: Month 30, Week 4, Day 5.

On December 12th 2016 (12/12/16) the northern Syrian city of Aleppo was liberated from the Army of Conquest/Jaish al-Fatah (JAF) coalition. In the wake of that liberation Russia convened talks on the Syria conflict between Syria, Turkey, the Army of Conquest and Iran in Astana, Kazakhstan for December 27th 2016 (27/12/16).

However under pressure those talks were moved forward to December 20th 2016 (20/12/16) and would now take place in Moscow, Russia. They were immediately proceeded by the assassination of the Russian Ambassador to Turkey in Ankara and the Berlin terror attack. Both of which took place on December 19th 2016 (19/12/16).

Although the Moscow talks were initially unsuccessful they did lay the ground work for a partial ceasefire for Syria which was declared on December 29th 2016 (29/12/16). In declaring this ceasefire it was made clear that it would not apply to; "Terrorist Groups." However it far made clear who was considered a terrorist group.

Previous ceasefires had defined both the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) and Al Qaeda/the Base's Syrian affiliate the Jabhat al-Nusra/the Support Front (ANF) as  terrorist groups. However at the insistence of Turkish President/Prime Minister/Emperor Recep Tayyip Erdogan this latest ceasefire also seemed to include the anti-ISIL Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF/QSD) as a terrorist group. It made no mention of the groups that fight alongside Al Qaeda within the Army of Conquest.

This ceasefire agreement was supposed to form the basis for further negotiations scheduled for January 27th 2017 (27/1/17) in Astana, Kazakhstan. However under pressure from Erdogan those negotiations have now been brought forward to January 23rd 2017 (23/1/17) - just three days after the inauguration of Donald Trump as the next US President. Having succeeded in getting the negotiations moved forward Erdogan has now insisted that the US be invited and Russia have agreed.

Today a cargo plane - TK6491 - belonging to the 49% Chinese owned Turkish carrier MyCargo crashed into a village in Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan destroying 15 houses and killing at least 37.

Being an air crash this obviously references the loss of Russian Military Tupolev Tu-154B RA-85572 over the Black Sea on December 25th 2016 (25/12/16).

At the time I said the death aboard that flight of Yelizaveta Glinka M.D (AKA; "Dr Liza") referenced specific military developments in Syria. Those were the fate of the Tishrin Dam and the Tabqa Dam which span the Euphrates River north of ISIL's de facto Syrian capital - Raqqa. The Tishrin Dam is where Erdogan wants to attack the SDF if he is able to clear them from Manbij while the Tabqa Dam is where ISIL's supply lines cross the the Euphrates River linking Raqqa with al-Bab and by extension Turkey via the H4 Highway.

With it being a cargo or supply plane lost today it is clear that Erdogan wants the Tabqa Dam supply route kept open. You could almost say that he thinks it would be a tragedy if it was lost.

The plane originated from Hong Kong en route to Istanbul, Turkey. Under the One China policy Hong Kong is of course considered part of China. 

Following the January 1st 2017 terror attack on the Reina nightclub in Istanbul Kyrgyzstan or more accurately the neighbouring Chinese province of Xinjiang is something that Erdogan has seemed very interested in. Particularly as Erdogan keeps mooting Turkish membership of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation as an alternative to membership of the European Union (EU).

Bishkek is actually on the other side of Kyrgyzstan from Xinjiang,  right on the border with Kazakhstan. The aircraft was a Boeing 747 so the US will be included in the crash investigation if nothing else.

Today's drama aside the December 29th (29/12/16) ceasefire has been reasonably successful in keeping things relatively quiet in Syria. The only exception has been around the town of Wadi Barada and the village of Ayn al-Fijeh. These are both located around 10km (6 miles) north-west of Syria's capital Damascus.

As their names suggest both Wadi Barada and Ayn al-Fijeh are home to natural water springs. Together they make up the majority of Damascus' water supply. On December 22nd 2016 (22/12/16) the Army of Conquest which occupy the area poisoned those springs with diesel fuel and destroyed the pumping station. As a result Damascus' civilians have been without clean water for nearly a month.

The situation in Wadi Barada also highlights the fallacy of trying to claim that there is a distinction between Al Qaeda and what is often wrongly referred to as; "moderate rebels." There simply is no distinction. As within the rest of Syria these supposedly moderate groups fight alongside Al Qaeda and other extreme Islamist terror groups as part of the Army of Conquest/Jaish al-Fatah (JAF) coalition.

The largest group within the Army of Conquest is Al Qaeda. However two large, dominant groups within the coalition are the Islamic Movement of the Freemen of the Levant/Harakat Ahrar ash-Sham al-Islamiyya (Ahrar al-Sham) and the United Turkmen Army (UTA).

The fragments of what used to be known as; "The Free Syrian Army (FSA)" that are particularly active around Wadi Barada are the Levant Liberation Army, the Zabandani Hawks Brigade and the al-Hamza Battalion. As with the Nour al-Din al-Zenki Movement/Harakat Nour al-Din al-Zenki who operated in eastern Aleppo City both the al-Hamza Battalion and the Zabandani Hawks Brigade have been supplied with weapons under the US Train & Equip program.

Due to Al Qaeda's leadership role within the Army of Conquest the Syrian government has not considered the December 29th ceasefire to be in effect in Wadi Barada and fighting there has continued. Particularly over the course of the past week Syrian  forces have made significant progress in liberating the area.

On Friday (13/1/17) a deal was reached that would see the Army of Conquest surrender control of Wadi Barada and Ayn al -Fijeh returning them to Syrian control. The local groups such as the Levant Liberation Army, the Zabandani Hawks Brigade and the al-Hamza Battalion have all being complying with this agreement laying down their weapons and leaving.

However the Al Qaeda and Ahrar al-Sham elements have been trying to fight on. Yesterday (15/1/17) Ahrar al-Sham elements shot and killed retired Syrian Brigadier General Ahmad Ghadban as he was leaving the area. 

A longtime resident of Ayn al-Fijeh Brigadier General Ghadban had been a key figure in negotiating the agreement between the Syrian and local forces. The hope was clearly that his death would bring an end to the agreement allowing the Army of Conquest to cling onto control of the area. Possibly by having the Syrian military operation declared a ceasefire violation. 

Modelled on the liberation of Aleppo City the agreement in Wadi Barada will see the Army of Conquest fighters give up their heavy weapons. However they will then be allowed travel some 360km (216 miles) north to the area around Idlib City. That is the area which has been designated; "The Sudetenland."

I will pick things up there tomorrow.

20:10 on 16/1/17 (UK date).

Operation Featherweight: Month 30, Week 4, Day 3.

On October 17th 2016 (17/10/16) an operation was launched to liberate the northern Iraqi city of Mosul from the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL).

As I mentioned in my previous post a key part of the plan for this operation was to leave the west of Mosul undefended in order to allow ISIL to flee back into Syria. Particularly their de facto capital of Raqqa.

There are many, many things wrong with this plan. However possibly the most important one occurs some 620km (370 miles) west of Mosul where Syria borders Turkey. Specifically the roughly 100km (60 mile) area between Azaz/Kilis to the west and the Euphrates River in the east. This has become known as either; "Garvaghy Road" or "Erdogan's Pocket."

Garvaghy Road is ISIL's main supply route with Turkey. ISIL oil flows up Garvaghy Road into Turkey. In return weapons, fighters and other equipment flow from Turkey to Raqqa and beyond - possibly as far as the Iraqi border town of Qaim. Therefore if ISIL fighters can flee from Mosul to Raqqa they can also quite easily flee from Raqqa to Turkey and from there to the rest of the world.

To the east of Garvaghy Road you have a vast 12,000kmsq (7,200milesq) buffer/safe-zone controlled by the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF/QSD) - the most effective anti-ISIL force within Syria. To the west of the Garvaghy Road you have another area under SDF control. Centred around the city of Afrin this has become known as; "The Afrin Canton."

Therefore the logical thing would be for the SDF to advance across Garvaghy Road linking the eastern buffer-zone with the Afrin Canton.

However under outgoing US President Barack Obama the US-led coalition - Combined Joint Task Force: Operation Inherent Resolve - has repeatedly blocked the SDF from making this advance by starving them of ammunition and air support. 

On August 25th 2016 (25/8/16) Obama took things even further by giving Turkish President/Prime Minister/Emperor Recep Tayyip Erdogan permission to militarily invade and occupy Garvaghy Road. This was done specifically to protect ISIL's supply lines from the SDF.

This plan to allow Erdogan to flood - particularly Europe - with ISIL fighters did not go down at all well with the US' other NATO partners. So following what I gather was a heated NATO meeting in late October 2016 the Obama attempted to bodge together a solution. The SDF would launch an operation to liberate Raqqa.

As with the operation to liberate Mosul the first stage would be to encircle Raqqa.

The first phase of this first stage was launched on November 6th 2016 (6/11/16). It focused on the SDF advancing south towards Raqqa from the town of Ayn Issa. At the time marking the southern boundary of the SDF's eastern buffer-zone Ayn Issa sits around 60km (35 miles) east of the Euphrates and around 50km (30 miles) south of Syria's border with Turkey. Crucially it sits around 70km (40 miles) north of Raqqa.

On November 25th 2016 (25/11/16) this first phase was declared to be complete. The SDF had advanced roughly 45km (27 miles) south of Ayn Issa putting them within 25km (15 miles) north of Raqqa. As they advanced they'd liberated around 600kmsq (360 milesq) of predominately farmland from ISIL control. It was during this advance that Chief Petty Officer Scott Dayton was killed on November 24th 2016 (24/11/16) - the US first combat fatality within Syria.

On December 10th 2016 (10/12/16) the second phase of the operation was launched. This would see the SDF advance along the Euphrates River from essentially the town of Sarrin to liberate the area between Raqqa and the Euphrates River.

By January 5th 2017 (5/1/17) the SDF had reached within 8km (5 miles) of the Tabqa Dam which forms Lake Assad out of the Euphrates River and is around 55km (30 miles) west of Raqqa. On January 6th 2017 (6/1/17) the SDF succeeded in liberating Jabour Castle (Qalat Jabar) which sits in a peninsula on the northern side of Lake Assad approximately 45km (27 miles) west of Raqqa.

It was during this phase of the operation that two members of the SDF's Quinta Brigada international brigade gave their lives. They were Ryan Lock aged 20 from Chichester, UK and Nazzareno Tassone aged 24 from Edmonton, Canada.

Although the advance towards Raqqa has ended this phase of the operation is technically still underway. The focus is now on linking the western advance up with the northern advance. When complete it will have succeeded in liberating approximately 600km (360 milesq) from area.

This will bring the total area liberated to 1,200kmsq (720 milesq) expanding the SDF's eastern buffer-zone to 13,200kmsq (7, 920 milesq).

Even before this second phase is complete there has been talk of soon launching a third phase. This is said to be planned for the east of Raqqa and seems to be focused on cutting Raqqa off from Deir-ez-Zour. An oil rich area Deir-ez-Zour sits around 160km (95 miles) south-east of Raqqa along the Euphrates Basin.

Perhaps telegraphing a possible focus for this third phase last Sunday (8/1/17) US SOF's conducted a raid in Madan. This is approximately 55km (33 miles) south-east of Raqqa and 70km (40 miles) north of Deir-ez-Zour. Although the details are being kept quiet it seems the objective of the mission was the capture of ISIL finance minister Abu Anas and at least 25 ISIL fighters were killed in the process. 

The first two phases of the SDF's Raqqa operation have succeeded in liberating 113 villages along with countless farms and civilians from ISIL's rule. Therefore it is impossible to describe it as meaningless. However it has certainly not succeeded in the main objective of cutting Raqqa off from Garvaghy Road.

In December 2015 Tishrin Dam - close of Sarrin - was liberated. Since then ISIL's main way to cross the Euphrates River and therefore access Garvaghy Road has been the Tabqa Dam. 

Although the SDF have advanced within 8km (5 miles) of the Tabqa Dam the US has so far declined the SDF permission to liberate the dam itself. Therefore ISIL's ability to access Garvaghy Road via the H4 Highway and the town of al-Bab remains unchanged.

My main concern though is that once the encirclement stage is complete the SDF will then come under immense US pressure to launch an assault on Raqqa itself. The SDF are simply not equipped to mount such an operation.

In launching an operation of similar scale to liberate Mosul the combined forces of the Iraqi Kurdish Peshmerga and the Iraqi Security Forces (ISF) initially committed a force of 40,000. They are equipped with thousands of armoured HUMVEE's, tanks and the latest Mine Resistant, Ambush Protected (MRAP) armoured vehicles. They are supported by US and French Special Operations Force (SOF) heavy artillery and advanced aircraft such at the AH-64 Apache gunship.

In contrast the SDF have committed just 3,500 troops to the Raqqa operation. That force has no tanks, no armoured vehicles and no close air support. They are limited to old unarmoured civilian vehicles, rusty Soviet era weapons and continue to be starved of ammunition by CJTFOIR.

As the Mosul operation has progressed the combined ISF, Peshmerga force has seen some 10% of its force killed. That represents some 4,000 fatalities - 500 more than the total the SDF has available for the entire Raqqa operation. With the Mosul operation having reached the point of no return the ISF and the Peshmerga have been forced to commit ever more forces and equipment to the operation until they finally succeed.

ISIL are likely to fight even harder for Raqqa than they have been for Mosul.

Therefore I am extremely concerned that if an assault on Raqqa is launched the SDF will quickly see their initial force of 3,500 wiped out forcing them to commit more and more of their total force of around 70,000 to the operation. Quite quickly that drain on the SDF's resources will cause the eastern buffer-zone to collapse meaning that all the progress of the last, nearly three years will be wiped out.

The prospect of an SDF collapse already seems to have Turkish President/Prime Minister/Emperor Recep Tayyip Erdogan rubbing his hands with glee.

Since early November 2016 Erdogan has been focused on cycling control of the town of al-Bab from ISIL to both his regular and irregular forces. Sitting 40km (25 miles) south of Syria's border with Turkey and 70km (40 miles) west of the Euphrates al-Bab links Raqqa with Turkey via the H4 Highway and the Tabqa Dam. Therefore Erdogan's hope is that anything travelling between Turkey and al-Bab will be dismissed as supplies to Turkish forces rather than supplies to ISIL in Raqqa.

It is certainly no secret that once Erdogan's forces have taken control of al-Bab he wants them to attack SDF positions at the town of Manbij which sits around 50km (30 miles) north-east of al-Bab along the M4 Motorway. Having captured Manbij from the SDF it seems likely that Erdogan intends to capture the Tishrin Dam and press on into the SDF's eastern buffer-zone. To this end Erdogan has been extensively building up his forces in and around al-Bab.

Although they have not yet been condemned Erdogan's aspirations have struggled to find support from CJTFOIR. Up until December 28th 2016 (28/12/16) CJTFOIR had declined to provide air support to Erdogan's forces around al-Bab. Then on December 29th 2016 (29/12/17) Erdogan used this proposed Russian-led peace process to force Russia to provide his forces with air support around al-Bab.

This represented the first time that Russia had provided military support to a NATO member in combat. With NATO being formed to fight Russia it is hard to overstate how dramatic this development is. It would seem to indicate that Erdogan intends to pull Turkey out of NATO in order to form a military alliance with Russia.

This fear prompted CJTFOIR to provide Erdogan's forces around al-Bab with air support for the first time on December 30th 2016 (30/12/16). Since then Erdogan has continued to play CJTFOIR and Russia off against each other with both air forces seeming to provide Erdogan's forces with air support on alternate days. In a development that should worry all on Thursday (12/1/17) Erdogan appear to have reached a formal military co-operation agreement.

Obviously faced with this opposition to his plans Erdogan has embarked on a frantic effort to build up pressure to overcome that opposition.

On January 1st 2017 (1/1/17) there was the gun attack on the Reina nightclub in Istanbul. I covered this in detail here; http://watchitdie.blogspot.co.uk/2017/01/operation-featherweight-month-30-week-2.html

Although he has so far eluded capture attacker was identified last Sunday (8/1/17) as Abdulkadir Masharipov from Uzbekistan. That followed a week of speculation that he was from Kyrgyzstan which borders China. Specifically China's semi-autonomous Xinjiang region.

Thanks to the 2016 Eurovision Song Contest entry "1944" by Jamala there has been lots of talk recently about Josef Stalin's decision to exile ethnic Turks from what used to be Ukraine in 1944. Stalin exiled those ethnic Turks to what at the time was the southern USSR - now Turkmenistan - and to China's Xinjiang region where they are known as; "Uighurs."

These ethnic Turks have been a source of tension between China and Erdogan for some time now. Back in June 2015 Erdogan falsely accused China of forbidding these ethnic Turks from participating in the holy Muslim month of Ramadan. This sparked such fury amongst Erdogan's Islamist supporters that on July 4th 2015 (4/7/15) they attacked a group of South Korean tourists in Istanbul in a misguided act of revenge.

Due to this perceived persecution by China it is reasonably common for these Uighurs to sneak across the border from Xinjiang to Kyrgyzstan. Recently there has been a growing problem of these Chinese ethnic Turks travelling to Turkey and then onto Syria and Iraq to join ISIL using Kyrgz passports.

China is of course one of the five permanent members of the United Nations Security Council (UNSC). Particularly in the wake of the UNSC meetings following the liberation of Aleppo City on December 12th 2016 (12/12/16) there has been some discussion amongst the permanent members of the UNSC about whether China has been engaged in fight against ISIL in a way that is in keeping with the responsibility of being a permanent member. Turkey is of course not a permanent member of the UNSC.

So while Erdogan has been threatening everyone else this Kyrgz element of the Reina attack has been an enquiry to China over this discussion. An enquiry that carries with it an air of menace.

While Erdogan was trying to convince everyone the Reina attacker was Kyrgz/Chinese the manhunt focused of Istanbul's Izmir district. During that manhunt on January 5th 2017 (5/1/17) there was a foiled suicide attack on Izmir's Courthouse. With a number of Kyrgz/Chinese suspects in the Reina attack scheduled to appear in that Courthouse later in the day that certainly added an extra element of drama to discussions.

Responsibility for the Izmir attack has since been claimed by the Kurdistan Freedom Falcons (TAK). If the western media is unable to realise the distinction between TAK and the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) there is absolutely no chance of Turkey's Erdogan controlled media picking up on it. Therefore domestically the attack contributes to demands for Erdogan to deploy more forces to Garvaghy Road to defend ISIL against the SDF.

Last Saturday (7/1/17) there was a large bombing in the Syrian city of Azaz which killed at least 43 people. Azaz of course makes up the western border of Garvaghy Road. 

The crucial element of this attack is that the bomb was delivered in an oil tanker. Prior to their recent rapprochement Russia collected extensive evidence of not only Turkey but the Erdogan family's role in the ISIL oil trade. As the Russian-led negotiations continue Erdogan is obviously interested to know if this oil trade will be allowed to continue. However it seems clear that Erdogan is an ideological ally of ISIL rather than merely an economic one so his support for the group will likely continue even if he is not being paid in return.

The attack on what is currently a Turkish occupied town obviously triggered demands that more is done to increase security to protect civilians. That provides Erdogan with opportunity to build up forces in Azaz ahead of an attack westward on the SDF controlled Afrin Canton.

In a further effort to convince the Turkish people that the World is just one giant conspiracy against Erdogan yesterday (13/1/17) Turkey arrested 4 serving soldiers over the December 17th 2016 (17/12/16) bombing of a military bus in Kayseri. Following the July 15th 2016 (15/7/16) Turkish rising the Turkish military have largely been dismissed as part of what Erdogan calls the Gulen Terrorist Organisation (FETO). The Kayseri bombing has previously been blamed on the PKK. 

Therefore this seems to be an attempt to further link FETO and the PKK in the minds of the Turkish people. Particularly as Erdogan's constitutional reform bill begins its journey through Parliament amid - by Turkish standards - moderate opposition.

Although Erdogan was finally forced to admit that the Reina attacker was from Uzbekistan rather than Kyrgz/Chinese yesterday (13/1/17) two Chinese suspects were arrested accused of assisting him. So it seems that Erdogan is really interested in this China discussion.

Switching back to the Mosul operation for a moment there has been some dramatic progress in just the last three days.

In my previous post on the topic I mentioned that in the area north of the M2 Hawler Road the ISF had liberated the al-Muhafazan,  al-Sukkar and al-Baladiyat neighbourhoods. This established a forward line along the Hawler Road as it runs north to south alongside the Nineveh Ruins and the Mosul University complex.

I also mentioned that in the area to the south of the Hawler Road the ISF had secured control of Mosul's so-called "Fourth Bridge" and reached Jonah's tomb. The ISF had also liberated the Mosul communication and post centre which sits between the M80 Road and the al-Horia roundabout which leads onto the al-Jamhuriya bridge.

Yesterday (13/1/17) the ISF crossed the Hawler Road and entered the Mosul University complex. Today they have confirmed that they have liberated if not fully secured this sprawling complex.

Also yesterday the ISF succeeded in liberating the Mosul Governate buildings. Today they have confirmed they have secured the al-Faisaliah neighbourhood where it is located. This gives them partial control of not only the Fourth Bridge and the al-Jumhuriya Bridge but also the so-called "Old Bridge."

In my post on Wednesday (11/1/17) I said that ISIL were in control of just nine of eastern Mosul's neighbourhoods. That has now fallen to just five one of which is just forest and another two are essentially marsh land.

The clearest sign that ISIL's defences in eastern Mosul are now in collapse came yesterday when ISIL themselves attempted to demolish all five of Mosul's bridges following a retreat. That suggests that the ISIL fighters remaining in the east of the city have been abandoned to fight to the death or until their ammunition runs out.

Due to the complex nature of urban warfare I can't really give a prediction of when Mosul's left bank will be liberated. However I will be extremely surprised if I'm still talking about fighting on that side of the Tigris at this time next week. 

17:30 on 14/1/17 (UK date).

Edited at around 20:15 on 16/1/17 (UK date);

I initially wrote that Masharipov had alluded capture. It will haunt me forever.