Operation Featherweight: Month 30, Week 3, Day 7.

Since the summer of 2014 the northern Iraqi city of Mosul has been under the occupation of the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL).

On October 17th 2016 (17/10/16) an operation was launched to liberate the city. This is a combined operation by the Iraqi Security Forces (ISF), the Iraqi Kurdish Peshmerga and the US-led coalition - Combined Joint Task Force: Operation Inherent Resolve (CJTFOIR). Its first objective was to encircle Mosul from the north, east and south.

The primary motivation behind launching the operation at that time was to ensure lots of positive news coverage ahead of the November 8th 2016 (8/11/16) US election. This was done in an effort to help Hillary Clinton succeed Barack Obama as President. The main part of the plan was to hope that ISIL would simply run away and escape via the west to Syria.

Neither of those things are considered particularly valid when planning a major military operation.

Realising this on November 16th 2016 (16/11/16) the Popular Mobilisation Force (PMF) militia element of the ISF succeeded in liberating Tal Afar airport to the west of Mosul cutting off the western escape route. Despite a major element of the plan being changed no-one saw any need to change the rest of the plan.

On November 1st 2016 (1/11/16) the ISF launched an east to west frontal assault on Mosul starting from the suburb of Gogjali. By November 24th 2016 (24/11/16) the ISF had succeeded in securing 16 neighbourhoods. Their most forward positions arced from the al-Zuhar neighbourhood to the al-Karamah neighbourhood to the north-east and arced from the al-Karamah neighbourhood to the al-Salam neighbourhood to the south-east.

On December 4th 2016 (4/12/16) the ISF launched another push westwards from the al-Salam neighbourhood into the Palestine/Falastin, Qarayat Yarimjah and Judaydah Mufti neighbourhoods. They also launched a simultaneous push on the north side of the M2/Hawler Road from the al-Karamah neighbourhood to the al-Bareed and al-Tameen neighbourhoods.

By December 9th 2016 (9/12/16) the ISF had advanced so they were in at least partial control of 27 of Mosul's western neighbourhoods. To the north of the Hawler Road the ISF controlled neighbourhoods in almost a vertical line from al-Zuhar to al-Tameen. To the south of the Hawler Road the ISF controlled neighbourhoods in an arc from al-Karamah to the Judaydah neighbourhood.

However these gains came at significant cost.

The ISF do not publish their own casualty figures. However the persistent rumour is that those 39 days of fighting 4,000 ISF service personnel gave their lives. That represents 10% of the entire force of 40,000 committed to the operation. The ISF's elite Counter Terrorism Service (CTS/Golden Division) who have been leading the fight were particularly hard hit. They have seen some 20% of their entire force killed in the Mosul operation.

With the Golden Division in particular having sustained so many casualties they could no longer be considered an effective fighting force a tactical pause was declared on December 9th 2016 (9/12/16). This was to allow for replacements of equipment and men - some said to be poorly trained - to be brought in to reinforce the operation.

Due to the slow progress of the operation the US has also been forced to change the mission its Special Operations Forces (SOF) around Mosul from an advisory to a frontline combat one. In turn this has forced them to increase the number of SOF's by 450. In another clear sign of mission creep other members of CJTFOIR  - mainly Britain and France - have also deployed a further 50 SOF's - primarily snipers - in forward positions in Mosul.

I have always maintained that this Mosul operation has been poorly planned and - at primarily the insistence of the Americans - conducted at completely the wrong time. However the December pause has provided a clear demonstration of why now it has begun there is no choice other than to see it through even if it is sucking in an spitting out more personnel than had been expected.

The December pause of course not only allowed the ISF time to re-group it also allowed ISIL to re-group. 

As a result ISIL were able to launch a counter-offensive turning six neighbourhoods - Intisar, Somer, al-Saha, al-Salam, Falastin and al-Quds - from being under complete ISF control back into areas of conflict. The Intisar and al-Quds neighbourhoods were of particular concern because they are far behind what is loosely considered the frontline. Al-Quds in particular is one of Mosul's most eastern neighbourhoods.

On December 22nd 2016 (22/12/16) ISIL were able to shell and launch Vehicle Borne Improvised Explosive Device (VBIED/Suicide truck bomb) attacks against Gogjali. That is so far to the east it is not technically considered part of Mosul. On December 28th 2016 (28/12/16) ISIL were able to launch fullscale attacks in the areas of Abu Aweza and Tal Afar which are some distance outside of Mosul. Fortunately both of these attacks were quickly repelled.

On December 29th 2016 (29/12/16) the ISF launched a fresh push of their own in the south-east and north-east of the city.

In the south-east the ISF's first priority to was re-establish control over the neighbourhoods they'd lost before pushing on from Intisar and Falastin neighbourhoods into al-Wadha and al-Maliyah. In the north-east the first priority was liberating the villages of al-Sada and al-Tawila on the first day before entering the al-Muhafazan and al-Sukkar neighbourhoods.

On January 6th 2017 (6/1/17) the ISF conducted their first night mission of the operation. This took them across the Khosr River - key tributary to the Tigris River running through the centre of Mosul - and into the Rifaq and al-Muthana neighbourhoods. These border the Nineveh ruins which are considered by many to mark the centre of Mosul.

On Sunday January 8th 2017 (8/1/17) the ISF announced that they had completed their push into the al-Muhafazan and al-Sukkar neighbourhoods and entered the al-Baladiyat neighbourhood. Once all three neighbourhoods have been secured that will establish a forward line along the Hawler Road as it runs north to south alongside the Nineveh Ruins.

To the south-east on January 3rd 2017 (3/1/17) the ISF entered the al-Wadha neighbourhood and began to attack the Baath neighbourhood. On Monday January 9th 2017 (9/1/17) reached the so-called "Fourth Bridge" across the Tigris from the Baath and al-Maliyah neighbourhoods.

Yesterday (10/1/17) it was confirmed that the ISF had reached the Mosul communication and post centre which sits between the M80 Road and the al-Horia roundabout which leads onto the al-Jamhuriya bridge. Today it was announced that the ISF had entered Jonah's Tomb which sits between the al-Maliyah and al-Jazar neighbourhoods.

These latest gains mean that ISIL now only control 9 neighbourhoods or roughly 20% of the territory on Mosul's east or left bank. These include the sparsely populated al-Arabi and Rashidiyah neighbourhoods to the north. As a result we seem to be approaching the point where Mosul's eastern side can be declared liberated.

That of course will still leave Mosul's west or right bank to be liberated. Although geographically smaller than the east of the city the west of Mosul is much older made up of a tightly packed warren of old buildings and narrow streets unsuited to modern warfare. As such the fighting there is likely to be much tougher and take even longer. 

Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi has estimated that the operation will now last until Easter which is in mid-April 2017. That increased delay raises further concerns about the fate of Mosul's civilian population.

The plan was that Mosul's civilians would remain within their homes as the fighting quickly passed them by. With the fighting not progressing as quickly as hoped this plan doesn't seem to be working. In the first five days following the December 29th 2016 (29/12/16) push some 13,000 civilians fled Mosul. That brings the total number of people having fled Mosul to over 130,000 all of whom are currently being housed in poorly equipped Internally Displaced Peoples (IDP) camps amid freezing weather.

I am also growing increasingly concerned about the fate of people living in towns such as Qaryart al-Ashiq between the west of Mosul and Tal Afar. As far back as November 2016 there were growing concerns that civilians in this area were beginning to run out of essential supplies. Based on current estimates and strategy they will likely be the last civilians liberated from ISIL after Mosul itself is liberated. Five months or more is a very long time to expect them to wait for relief.

Obviously ISIL have not taken their recent losses in Mosul in good grace. Since the start of the December 29th 2016 (29/12/16) push they have responded with an intense bombing campaign centred around the Iraqi capital Baghdad - some 400km (240 miles) to the south. January 2nd 2017 (2/1/17) was a particularly brutal day.

On Saturday December 31st 2016 (31/12/16) French President Francois Hollande announced that he would be visiting Iraq on Monday January 2nd 2017 (2/1/17) to congratulate the nation on the progress it had made improving security. The public nature of this announcement gave ISIL two days to plan attacks to prove Hollande wrong.

On the morning of January 2nd 2017 (2/1/17) ISIL detonated a total of six car bombs at markets in and around Baghdad predominately focused on the overwhelmingly Shia Sadr City. Then in the evening ISIL launched bomb and gun attacks against two police stations in the city of Samarra - some 115km (70 miles) north of Baghdad.

The nature of these attacks seemed inspired by the opening episode ("The Six Thatchers") of the fourth season of the BBC TV Show "Sherlock" which was first broadcast on Sunday January 1st 2017 (1/1/17). The began with the telling of the old folk story "The Appointment in Samarra." As with all folk stories there are various version of this tale but the all serve as an allegory about fate.

A merchant is busy in a market in Baghdad when he sees the figure of death. Although death looks surprised to see him the merchant immediately flees Baghdad for Samarra. That evening in Samarra the merchant is again faced with death. This time he accepts his fate but asks death why he seemed surprised to see him in Baghdad that morning.

Death replies; "Because I had an appointment with you this evening in Samarra."

Sherlock is one of the BBC's big exports. So not only was this episode broadcast in the UK on January 1st it was also broadcast across Europe - including Russia - at the same time. As a result it was trending globally on Twitter that evening - only in Russian. That would certainly hint at a thaw in relations between the UK and Russia.

Just this Sunday (8/1/17) there was another bombing in the Sadr City district of Baghdad. This time it targeted the Jamila market. I think that counts as close enough to "Jamala" singer of the controversial 2016 Eurovision Song Contest entry "1944."

So it seems that ISIL is growing increasingly concerned about the division between Russia and the west on which the group depends. It must be extremely frustrating for them to have all these complex conversations going on above their heads.

As with the wave of attacks that was triggered by the start of the Mosul operation back in October 2016 the main objective of this latest ferocious wave of attacks is to undermine faith in the Iraqi government. Ideally ISIL are looking to bring down that government so it can no longer fight them. Failing that it is trying to force the Iraqi government to withdraw forces from the Mosul operation to protect Baghdad to reduce the pressure on ISIL in Mosul.

Unfortunately this tactic seems to be having some effect. 

Following the latest bomb attacks on Monday (9/1/17) mass protests were held in Baghdad calling for better security in the capital. The Iraqi police broke up these protests using tear gas. There now seems to be protests growing elsewhere in Iraq over the way the police broke up the Baghdad protests.

Sadly the latest waves of attacks in Baghdad serve to highlight that the war against ISIL in Iraq will not be won with the liberation of ISIL. The group still need to be defeated in areas such as the Hawija Triangle between Tikrit and Kirkuk and their sleeper cells still need to be dismantled.

Fortunately the Iraqi government seem to be fully aware of this problem. 

On Friday January 6th 2017 (6/1/17) they launched an operation in and around Anbar province's border with Syria. Centred around the town Qaim this is intended to stop ISIL from smuggling fighters and predominately VBEID's such as those seen in Baghdad into Iraq from Syria.

So far this operation seems to be making good progress with the ISF backed by Sunni tribal forces liberating parts of Sagra and Zawiya and advancing on Fhemi valley which is seen as a key cross-border smuggling route. 

17:45 on 11/1/17 (UK date).

 

The Reds Under the LED's

Sorry. It's Saturday and I'm recovering from a cold. That's the best computer pun I can come up with at the moment.

Both outgoing US President Barack Obama and nominated successor Hillary Clinton have long been a cause for alarm. Not only are they amongst the founders of the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) they both seem to be true believers in ISIL's cause. You could almost say that they both constantly hear voices in their heads telling them they must support ISIL.

As with all extremists neither Obama nor Clinton can really not understand that not everybody shares their beliefs. After all that would require the type of critical thinking that would make clear to them that their beliefs are in fact insane.

So in order for Clinton to replace Obama as President all both Clinton and Obama thought they needed to do was claim that Russia was out to get them. The thinking being that because everybody shares Obama's and Clinton's love for ISIL they would be equally outraged by Russia's longstanding opposition to ISIL.

The big clue that the Democrats accusations of Russian interference in the US election are not what they seem are the sheer number of the accusations.

In the course of the past year it's been claimed that Russia hacked the Democrats computers, the computer systems of numerous companies that manufacture and maintain voting machines and numerous states voting registers. Then of course there have been all the accusations of fake news and Internet trolls.

The sheer volume of the accusations makes it hard to keep track of which specific accusation is being discussed and then critically assess whether that accusation is true or not. Instead you get this sort of low hum of background noise that Russia is out to get America and only Hillary Clinton can save us.

This Democrat election strategy of course failed and Donald Trump was elected as America's next President.

Since then Obama has rather been abusing his position by amplifying the accusations in an attempt to shift the public mood to bind Trump to Obama's own anti-Russian, pro-ISIL policies.

A key part of this effort has been to task the US intelligence community to produce evidence of Russian hacking during the election. Rather than to, say, investigate the accusations.

A declassified version of that report was released yesterday (6/1/17) and can be read here; https://www.dni.gov/files/documents/ICA_2017_01.pdf

For those familiar with this type of intelligence report it certainly makes for interesting reading.

The key part of the report is that it presents absolutely no evidence to support any of the accusations of Russian hacking.

Obviously I appreciate the need for secrecy means that the US can't go into too much detail about what it knows about someone else's intelligence capabilities. In fact in writing about ISIL I often myself hold things back for exactly that reason.

However much of the technical aspects of these alleged Russian hacks is already in the public domain.

This is particularly true of the claimed hack on the Democrat National Committee (DNC). At the time the DNC made these accusations the private computer security firm they were employing - Crowdstrike - made many of what they claim were the technical aspects public.

Crowdstrike's accusation is that the hack was carried out using a piece of malware containing code featuring the Russian alphabet. They also concluded that this code had been written on a keyboard set up to use the Russian alphabet.

However that it very far from proving that the malware was Russian in origin.

It could just as easily been written by a programmer in any one of the former Soviet states including nations which are now part of NATO such as Poland, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania.

It is also possible that it was written by a programmer who was working with someone who was fluent in the Russian language - say someone working for a spy agency.

Also if you take even a quick glance at some of the http addresses you use you will see that in programming languages letters and symbols do not automatically mean the same thing they do in a human language.

Crowdstrike also claim that the timezones and IP addresses featured in the malware code relate to eastern European timezones and Russian locations. Again this is very far from conclusive proof.

You only need to go and change the timezone on the phone, tablet or other device you're using to read this to see how easy it is to establish a false timezone. Although it's harder than changing the timezone on your phone it is relatively easy to spoof an IP address to give a false location. This is actually a problem I had setting up my new router in the days after the US election.

The other problem is that this particular piece of malware has been available for sale on the darkweb since the end of 2014/early 2015. Therefore its presence merely limits the suspect pool to anyone with basic programming skills and access to a computer.

In fact it doesn't even demonstrate that a hack has taken place.

It is entirely possible the Crowdstrike purchased the malware from the darkweb and installed onto the DNC's computers themselves.

Either to cover up the fact that the DNC had simply emailed the data to Wikileaks or to direct the information to Russian based hackers. They would then be able to use the information as a sort of barium tracer to identify the links between those Russian based hackers, the Russian intelligence services and Wikileaks.

The fact that this report does not even acknowledge the information in the public domain let alone confirm that it has inspected the DNC's computers rather than simply taking Crowdstrike's word for it seems intended to undermine the credibility of the report.

The report's core piece of 'evidence' is that Russia would have wanted to influence the US election in retaliation for the US repeatedly using computer hacking to embarrass Russia and influence Russia's 2012 election.  That puts the reader in something of a logical bind.

In order to believe the report's claim of Russian involvement you must first acknowledge that the US has systematically distributed false information in an effort to embarrass and materially damage Russia. Having accepted that you then need to question whether rather than being truthful and accurate this latest report and its unsupported conclusions are in fact just the latest part of that campaign.

Having spent less than a page on the hacking accusations the report then concentrates on what it terms "Russian Influence Operations." This refers to the discussion of US politics both on conventional media and on social media.

This is something that is not - by any stretch of the imagination - related to computer hacking or something that is in any way illegal. It is no more an espionage technique than the "FOR YOU ONED" hashtag that is trending on Twitter as I write this or the #BestFanArmy that the iHeartRadio awards and Taco Bell are currently asking people to participate in.

I will agree though that Obama's decision to grant legitimacy to Turkish President/Prime Minister/Emperor Recep Tayyip Erdogan's frequent pro-ISIL social media campaigns such as #AleppoIsBurning does raise serious concerns.

In discussing this topic the report does - seemingly intentionally - proceed to take another massive whack at its own credibility. It cites as evidence that some of these social media users must be working for the Russian government the fact that many of them also denied that Russia had sent troops to Ukraine.

That Russia sent troops to Ukraine has possibly been the most obvious lie the US has told about the situation there. If you were paying any attention to the Opening Ceremony of the 2014 Sochi Olympics that took place around that time you would know that Russia's Black Sea fleet was established by Prince Potemkin in 1783. As such Russian troops weren't sent to Ukraine. They were already there when the US overthrew the Ukrainian government.

If you start talking about a world where only certain people are allowed to report on US politics or discuss the topic on social media you are getting dangerously close to the Soviet Pravda system whereby the only news is the news that has been approved by the party. That is very much anti-democratic and the fact that Hillary Clinton and CNN clearly support that worldview has itself done more damage to the credibility of the US democratic process than the Russians or anyone else could hope for.

In what seems like an effort to highlight the normality of this situation the report then gives a brief 50 years history of foreign influence over US elections. It pays special attention to the traditionally close relationship between the Democrats and the Soviet Union citing Jimmy Carter's 1970 bid for the part nomination as an example.

At around 17:00 on 7/1/17 (UK date) I'll probably pick this up tomorrow.

Edited at around 12:15 on 8/1/17 (UK date) to add;

The report then goes on to dedicate 7 of its 13 pages to a report it prepared in 2012 on the Russian based news broadcaster RT which used to be known as "Russia Today." Primarily this is because the US intelligence community clearly don't understand RT and are looking for more information.

Unlike the Telegraph Office of the Socialist States (TASS) or RIA Novosti (now; Sputnik) RT is not an official news agency owned by the Russian government. Instead it is a private news network that is based in Russia.

However it turns out establishing and then running a global news network is hugely expensive. As a result RT does receive some funding from the Russian government. In return the Russian government looks to RT help it to use the private sector to refine its own soft-power efforts.

That Russia engages in soft-power is not in itself any way sinister. The UK does the same thing with the BBC as the US does with CNN. Don't even get me started on aspects of the US entertainment industry such as Rihanna. In fact in the form of the Eurovision Song Contest Europe holds an annual competition to test out each others soft-power efforts.

Those familiar with the Song Contest will know that Russia often has trouble finding its sweet spot. It tends to come out with things that are of such high quality and so complex they can't be understood by mere mortals. Alternatively Russia comes out with things that are so dumbed down they're impossible to be taken seriously. Through shows like; "The Keiser Report" RT is constantly trying to find that middle-ground.

In it's long discussion of RT the report mentions Georgia. This nation of course gave the World possibly the most spectacular example of fake news ever seen.

At 19:59 local time on March 13th 2010 (13/3/10) the Georgian broadcaster Imedi TV broke into its normal programming with what appeared to be a breaking news flash.

It reported that a protest organised by the opposition Democratic Movement for a United Georgia Party had been attacked by unknown gunman who killed several people. The opposition party blamed this attack on the government and called on the international community to act to protect them from the tyranny of the government of Mikheil Saakashvili.

It went on to report that almost immediately afterwards that the President of neighbouring South Ossetia Eduard Kokoity had been killed in an ambush. In response Russia had invaded Georgia bombing the capital Tbilisi killing the President Saakashvili. This coincided with the shooting down - by Russia - of a plane carrying Polish President Lech Kaczynski - an important Georgian ally.

This report was illustrated with shaky amateur footage from the scene, live footage of Russian tanks rolling into Georgia and reporters filing reports both on camera and over the telephone.

It was however all entirely fake.

Unfortunately though enough people wanted to believe it that they did believe it and chaos reigned. Georgian military units mobilised, bank machines were emptied of cash and several people died.

In apologising for the stunt Imedi TV claimed that they had been influenced by H.G Wells' 1938 War of the Worlds radio broadcasts.

However a lot of people still think this was done on purpose by Saakashvili in order to damage the Democratic Movement for a United Georgia Party in upcoming local elections in a clumsy attempt to link them to Russia.

In a bizarre coincidence a month later Polish President Lech Kaczynski was killed in a plane crash in Russia.

So although everybody seems to be talking about it now fake news is not a new topic. I don't think any discussion of the subject is really complete without mentioning the 1994 BBC series; "The Day Today."

If you are familiar with its history you can easily see how fake news has grown organically in eastern European nations such as Georgia and Macedonia as the Internet has expanded.

At around 13:10 on 8/1/17 (UK date) I've still got a little more to add later.

Edited at around 16:25 on 8/1/17 (UK date) to tidy up and add;

Mainly though the report seemed to be a massive advert for RT. It's as if the US intelligence community are encouraging more Americans to watch it because they've acknowledged that US broadcasters like CNN and NBC have become biased to the point of being beyond satire.

The report lays out a number of examples of the "smears" RT levelled against Hillary Clinton.  The main one of these was pointing out that the US media was hugely biased in favour of Hillary Clinton. Rather than being a smear or a lie that was a simple statement of fact.

My father isn't particularly interested in US politics. Nor is he particularly good at telling when people are lying to or trying to manipulate him. However even he would sit there watching CNN pointing out that it was clear that they wanted Hillary Clinton to win.

I think the prize though really has to go to CNN anchor Kate Bolduan who presented a daily show called "State of the Race" summing up the day's events in the election campaign.

In one particular episode she was surrounded by the usual panel of five Hillary Clinton supporters and one token Donald Trump supporter. At one point the Trump supporter asked Bolduan why CNN wasn't covering all the scandals surrounding Hillary Clinton. Bolduan snapped back; "We decide what voters talk about."

One of the other "smears" against Hillary Clinton the report cites is her links to Islamist terrorism.

The US Defence Intelligence Agency (DIA) has itself detailed how as Secretary of State Hillary Clinton was one of the key founders of ISIL. The Clinton campaign itself made Saudi lobbyist Khizr Khan a major part of it's campaign and invited the father of the Pulse nightclub attacker Omar Mateen to a Hillary Clinton campaign rally. 

Another example of a "smear" the report cited was concerns about Hillary Clinton's health.

Since 2012 Hillary Clinton has been treated with drugs to prevent stroke following a stroke-like fall. On the campaign trail there were numerous incidents where Hillary Clinton seemed to momentarily lose consciousness - most notable at the September 11th memorial.

However if you paid attention to the 2016 Rio Para-Olympic games Opening Ceremony you would know that even before the September 11th memorial nations with their own doctors were already openly discussing the red flags regarding Hillary Clinton's health.

So again rather than being smears or lies these were simply facts that RT was reporting on while US broadcasters like CNN were refusing to cover them.

The report also talks extensively about RT coverage of the "Occupy Wall Street" protests.

These of course were sponsored by the Democrat Party and represented during the primary by Bernie Sanders. Although this part of the report was written back in 2012 Occupy Wall Street went on to become "Black Lives Matter."

If you want to talk about "Post-Truth Politics" the Michael Brown case and the; "Hands Up. Don't Shoot" slogan have got to be a prime example.

So it sounds as if the report was claiming the main element of Russia's attempts to discredit Hillary Clinton were in fact the policies of President Barack Obama.

In this particular conspiracy theory I think that makes Obama a Russian spy.

Also traditionally the intelligence community do like to get the measure of their next President. This report seems to have provided them with an opportunity to do so.

Just before the public report was released President-elect Donald Trump sat down with the intelligence community to discuss the full report.

That version of the report no doubt included the technical aspects of the investigation. Donald Trump's first test would be whether he understood any of it.

Also before being presented with the report Trump had claimed on Twitter that the intelligence community hadn't bothered examine the DNC's servers instead choosing to just take Crowdstrike's word for it. So Trump's second test would be whether he would leak any of the classified aspects of the report.

The report also used what is termed; "Estimative Language" which talks about the likelihood of an event and the confidence in the assessment. This is a common technique but one that is particularly used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) to produce their assessments.

Obama's legacy and the Paris Agreement are almost entirely separate from the battle against Climate Change.

However as I'm sure people in Alaska will tell you if Trump truly does not believe that Climate Change is both real and manmade then that is going to be a serious problem.

17:20 on 8/1/17 (UK date).

Edited at around 11:10 on 11/1/17 (UK date) to add;

I think we've found John McCain's new codename.

Yesterday (10/1/17) the US Senate intelligence committee held a session on this intelligence report. The key detail revealed was that the DNC had repeatedly denied requests to have their servers inspected to verify Crowdstrike's claim. As a result this is not the US intelligence community's report into Russian hacking. It is the DNC's.

I suspect though that is not the part of the story that anybody is going to remember.

It was also revealed that Crowdstrike are not the only private contractor the DNC employed in their efforts to have Hillary Clinton elected. They also employed a former member of Britain's intelligence service MI6 to assemble a dossier of smears against Donald Trump.

Obviously confirming the identity of a former intelligence officer let alone the circumstances by which they came to leave the service requires a high level of insider knowledge. However although this person has not formally had a burn notice issued against them it's important to remember that they were not working for British intelligence at the time they complied this dossier.

Instead they were employed by the DNC with the specific purpose of compiling a smear campaign against Donald Trump in order to get Hillary Clinton elected. They have not disappointed. No doubt for various reasons this person's various sources have fed them the most elaborate conspiracy theory.

Initally it was alleged that Vladimir Putin personally hacked the DNC's computers to help Donald Trump win. This dossier now goes much further than that claiming Donald Trump is in fact a Russian agent and there was direct coordination between the Trump campaign and the Russian intelligence services.

With the 2018 Football World Cup coming up in Russia the dossier alleges that Trump was being paid for his work for the Russians with corrupt construction contracts to build World Cup stadiums. Obviously the dossier goes on to claim that Trump turned down these offers neatly explaining why there is no evidence to support the claim.

The big allegation is that Russia has video of Trump employing a dozen or so prostitutes to urinate on the hotel bed that was slept in by Barack and Michelle Obama while they were visiting Russia. The so-called "Golden Showers."

Obviously these claims are far too outlandish to be believed. However if you were trying to get the measure of Donald Trump watching his face for his poker tells while you presented such embarrassing accusations to him from across a meeting room table would be a good way to go about it.

The real worry though is Republican Senator John McCain. He appears to have not only believed this dossier but believed it to the extent that he has ordered the FBI to investigate to see if Trump can be prosecuted.

So I should probably point out that when I endorsed McCain for President back in 2008 it was on the understanding he would retire back in 2012.


11:40 on 11/1/17 (UK date).











 



 

So Who Wants Answers

What seems like a lifetime ago I mentioned that my brother had given me a copy of the Penguin published "GCHQ Puzzle Book" for Christmas.

Government Communications Headquarters (GCHQ) is the British equivalent of the US' National Security Agency (NSA). It's job is to encode government communications and to steal and decode other people's communications.

It has its roots in the World War Two Bletchley Park codebreakers lead by Alan Turing who broke the famous "Enigma" code. You may have heard of them - they were subject of the 2015 Oscar nominated movie; "The Imitation Game."

In that movie Kiera Knightley's character was recruited after solving a really complex crossword that had been placed in a national newspaper. The thinking being that anyone skilled enough to solve the crossword would have the skills needed to be a codebreaker. That actually happened.

In the 1990's GCHQ resurrected the idea for charity placing an extremely complex crossword in the Daily Telegraph newspaper every year at Christmas. This year's book is just an extension of that idea. It comes alongside a TV program which debuted last night on Channel 4 called simply; "Spies." Somewhere between a documentary and a gameshow this supposedly takes normal members of the public and puts them through basic espionage training.

Both the book and the TV show seem to be part of a big publicity campaign to support a recruitment drive by the British intelligence services. GCHQ in particular are recruiting because of a growing understanding of the increasing threat from computer hacking and cyberwarfare.

Regardless of your feelings about outgoing US President Obama's theatrics over Russian hacking as technology and the Internet play an ever more important role in all our lives the importance of cyberwarfare is only going to grow. Just back in October 2016 large parts of the Internet went offline after hackers used Internet enabled devices like webcams, doorbells, fridges etc to take down one of the main Domain Name Servers (DNS).

Rather than being the work of a government or being for any political purposes this was the work of some amateur hackers. They did it simply to solve the puzzle of if you could do it.

To give you an idea of what the GCHQ Puzzle Book is like I showed you a sample question;

"42° 15'N, 72° 15'W, 53° 52'N, 44° 50'E, 37° 49'N, 85° 29'W, 39° 37'N, 75° 56'W, 49° 57'N 40° 17E, 51° 54'N, 02° 04'W."

Those are obviously all GPS locations. They correlate to specific towns;

"Ware. Issa. Bardstown and north-east of Cheltenham."

Therefore the question becomes;

"Where is Bard's town north-east of Cheltenham?" 

With the Bard often referring to William Shakespeare the answer is obviously;

Stratford-upon-Avon (51*12'N 1*41'W).

That example is actually from the book's introduction. It's used as an example to show you how some of the real questions work.

Also I feel the need to point out that while I was visiting my mothers I brought a hand luggage sized black holdall.

This is something I've needed to do for a while. The overnight bag I've had for years has always been just a little bit too small. Plus although that bag has travelled with me for many miles across many timezones when faced with my mothers' dog it lasted for about all of two minutes.

It does though look a bit like I'd got so many Christmas presents I had to buy a new bag to carry them in. So I should probably tell you what I got from my mothers.

I got a new apron. As I've spent 90 minutes cooking today and will spend another 30 before I eat you can see why that was appreciated. I also got some warm, winter pyjamas which have already come into their own. My main gift though was an electric toothbrush. Although I'm assured it wasn't one of those 'suggestion' presents I've not even attempted to figure out how to use it yet.

In terms of what I gave my non-biological mother and I have something of a standing tradition whereby I by her beer. This started out when we didn't really know each other and didn't know how long she'd be around for. However over the years it's sort of developed. After all you may be familiar with Fullers London Pride Ale which is available in every supermarket in the UK. However you may be less familiar with a Coconut Porter made by a microbrewery in Colorado, US.

Obviously travelling on the train I didn't want to buy lots of heavy bottles and then carry them down with me. So I hit on this idea of buying them on the Internet and having them delivered to my mothers. This suddenly turned into the most complicated thing ever. I eventually gave up and brought a giftcard so she could chose her own. Except now the giftcard hasn't turned up I think I might have been defrauded in an Internet scam. For me that is of course highly embarrassing.

Mind you the British Parliament seem to be making cyber-crime and cyber-fraud their big priority for 2017. So the former government lawyer may actually appreciate the puzzle. Particularly if the prize is beer.

In terms of my biological mother it is often said that it is the thought behind the gift rather than the gift itself that counts. Amid all the thought it took to make the trip I came up completely blank. So although it hardly counts as a gift I got her a copy of "Five on Brexit Island" which is an imagining of the Brexit debate as told through Enid Blyton's Famous Five characters. I thought it would bring some light relief to what, for some, is an intense topic.

The main thing I got for Christmas of course was a cold. With both of my mothers getting over colds and it being cold weather this is hardly a medical mystery. However it has been a bit of a strange one.

Normally you get a couple of days when you can feel a cold coming on. Then you get a couple of days when you've got a cold. Finally you have a few days where you're getting over a cold. This one seems to have been stuck in pre-cold for about a week.

For example buying this bag was really meant to be an excuse to spend a few hours wandering around the town centre, stopping off for coffee and generally being sociable. Then in the evening we'd go out for dinner. This rapidly turned into; "I've got the damn bag. We're going home to sit on the sofa and order take-out."

Then the following day I was fine and we went for a long walk in the country and I made my way home. On the Saturday (31/12/16) I was back to feeling a bit groggy but was fine on Sunday. Then on Monday I was back to feeling groggy but fine of Tuesday (3/1/17).

So on Tuesday night I decided to break the cold and it did not break my way. Basically since then I've been in bed. However now it seems to have broken it's good thing.

After all I can cope with a sore throat and a cough. What I can't cope with though is my brain not working.

18:25 on 6/1/17 (UK date).

 




 

Operation Featherweight: Month 30, Week 2, Day 6.

This should be read as a direct continuation of; http://watchitdie.blogspot.co.uk/2017/01/operation-featherweight-month-30-week-2.html

In that post I explauned how Turkish President/Prime Minister/Emperor Recep Tayyip Erdogan staged a gun attack on the Reina nightclub in Istanbul to issue threats both to Russia and to Europe; Give Erdogan exactly what he wants or face the consequences.

As to what Erdogan wants it's pretty obvious;

In the long term he wants to establish a new Ottoman Empire.

In the short term he wants to invade and occupy both the vast 12,000kmsq (7.200 milesq) buffer/safe-zone established by the Syrian Defence Forces (SDF) east of the Euphrates River. Erdogan also wants to occupy the SDF controlled area centred around the north-western Syrian city of Afrin known as; "The Afrin Canton."

In the immediate term Erdogan wants to use both his regular and irregular forces located at al-Bab to attack SDF positions at Manbij which sits around 50km (30 miles) north-east of al-Bab and around 30km (18 miles) west of the Euphrates. Al-Bab itself sits around 45km (30 miles) north-east of Aleppo City.

The key problem with Erdogan's plan is that amongst the SDF's ranks at Manbij there are certainly US Special Operations Forces (SOF's) and there are rumoured to be SOF's from other nations such as the UK, France and Canada. There is also the SDF's Quinta Brigada international brigade made up of foreign nationals from many different nations.

Just today it's been confirmed that a British member of the Quinta Brigada was killed on December 21st (21/12/16). He was Ryan Lock aged 20 from Chichester in West Sussex. He was killed near the town of Jaeber some 60km (35miles) west of Raqqa - the de facto capital in Syria of the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL).

"Quinta Brigada" is simply Spanish for "15th Brigade." It refers to a brigade of Irish volunteers that fought for the Republican forces against the Nationalist forces of the Fascist Franco during the Spanish Civil War of 1936 to 1939. The song "Viva Quinta Brigada (Long Live the 15th Brigade)" is a famous one amongst Irish Republicans who've been allied with the Kurds certainly since the 1970's.

On June 12th 2016 (12/6/16) an Islamist terrorist gun attack was carried out at the Pulse gay Nightclub in Orlando, Florida. This resulted in the murder of 49 people many of whom were of Hispanic heritage.

Those wishing to see Hillary Clinton win the November 2016 Presidential election saw this as just a perfectly normal part of her campaign. Refusing to acknowledge that it had been an Islamist terror attack Hillary Clinton supporters instead tried to blame it all on racist, homophobic Donald Trump and the Republicans opposition to gun control.

The broadcaster CNN obviously joined in with this effort broadcasting and Tweeting out a roll call of the names and ages of the dead. The song Viva Quinta Brigada also features the names and ages of members of the brigade who were killed during the Spanish Civil War. So I took to using the song as a way to mock Hillary Clinton and her supporters.

The nature of the Reina nightclub attack was almost exactly the same as the Pulse nightclub attack.

Although the Turkish authorities are taking their sweet time in confirming the identity of the Reina attacker he is believed to be from one of the central Asians nations known as; "The Stans." These include Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan etc.

Omar Mateen who carried out the Pulse nightclub attack was originally from Afghanistan. He was chosen because within Afghan society he would be considered not an Afghan but as a member of the Pushtu ethnic group. Uzbeks, Turks, Tajiks are also large ethnic groups within Afghanistan.

By recreating the Pulse nightclub attack Erdogan seemed to be ordering the US and others to get the Quinta Brigada to lay down their arms and surrender. That would allow Erdogan's forces to march into Manbij and beyond unopposed.

Erdogan may well have thought this would work because outgoing US President Barack Obama has seemed more than happy to do his bidding when it comes to the SDF.

On November 6th 2016 (6/11/16) under pressure from the US the SDF began an operation to liberate Raqqa. The SDF have neither the manpower nor the equipment to successfully liberate Raqqa. Therefore the only conclusion is that this is a suicide mission intended to weaken them to the point that their buffer/safe-zone west of the Euphrates will collapse allowing Erdogan to march in unopposed.

It was as part of this Raqqa operation that Ryan Lock made his sacrifice. Hopefully we won't have to chalk off more names as we chalk off the days.

As with the burning alive of two Turkish Gendarmes of December 22nd 2016 (22/12/16) the spectacle of Turkey suffering an ISIL atrocity makes it hard to oppose Erdogan and his plans.

The situation around al-Bab has been particularly tense of late. The US-led coalition - Combined Joint Task Force: Operation Inherent Resolve (CJTFOIR) - had been declining to provide Erdogan's forces in the area with air support.

On December 29th 2016 (29/12/16) Russia stepped in to provide air support to Erdogan's forces. The first time that Russia has provided combat support to a NATO member. In response on December 30th 2016 (30/12/16) CJTFOIR started providing air support to Erdogan's forces. Due to the pressure caused by the Reina attack on January 1st 2017 (1/1/17) Russia was once again forced to provide air support to Erdogan's forces.

In response to the Reina attack Erdogan has not yet deployed more regular forces to al-Bab. However forces including armoured vehicles and heavy artillery pieces have been deployed to the border. Erdogan is no doubt hoping they will be able to cross into al-Bab overnight.

Also in the last few hours Erdogan's forces have begun shelling SDF positions at Manbij. Given the pressures the SDF are under the details are still sketchy but initial reports suggest 3 civilians killed and 14 injured.

Although Erdogan is clearly intent on getting his money's worth the Reina nightclub attack was yesterday claimed by ISIL. However it doesn't really matter who the attack is officially blamed on because Erdogan has spent at least a year and a half whipping the Turkish people up into a frenzied state where they're convinced the entire world is out to get them.

So in Erdogan's world rather than fighting each other the Syrian government, ISIL and the SDF are all secretly allied with each other. They are all also secret allies with a number of Turkish groups such as the the Revolutionary People's Liberation Party/Front (DHKP-C) and the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) which Erdogan claims is the military wing of the People's Democratic Party (HDP).

All of these groups are all controlled by Fethullah Gulen who is the head of what Erdogan refers to as the; "Fethullah Terrorist Organisation (FETO)." Fethullah Gulen is of course a front for America's Zionist Central Intelligence Agency (CIA).

I'm pretty sure that Erdogan knows that he is simply lying to the Turkish people to get what he wants. However if he does actually believe these things then he is displaying very serious symptoms of paranoid psychosis and should be in hospital for his own safety.

Obviously if any Turkish newspaper or broadcaster dares to challenge Erdogan's statements they will immediately be labelled as part of FETO their offices shutdown and their staff arrested, exiled or worse.

In an effort to blame the Reina attack - particularly the Saudi victims - on the US much is being made of a warning the US Embassy in Istanbul issued on - I think - October 22nd 2016 (22/10/16). Although I haven't seen it for myself this seems to be the type of generalised threat warning that are common in the security industry.

Rather stating the obvious it pointed out that there are elements within Turkey looking to launch attacks against western citizens and symbols of the west. As a nightclub serving alcohol to foreigners the Reina nightclub had been identified as a potential target. Therefore it's recommended they take additional precautions. The police guard being one such precaution.

That is of course very different from a specific threat warning telling them to expect an attack by a lone gunman at 01:10 on January 1st.

Obviously if you shut down every nightclub because of every generalised threat warning then it kind of means that the terrorists have won.

In fact it was quite a common tactic during the Northern Irish Troubles to call in a specific threat causing a concert, sporting event etc. That would lead to it being shut down and evacuated amid much disruption without the terrorists having to go to the trouble of actually carrying out an attack.

The 1997 Grand National horse race being a prime example.

18:30 on 3/1/17 (UK date).

Operation Featherweight: Month 30, Week 2, Day 5.

On the diplomatic front the main event of the past week has been Russia's plans to hold talks on Syria in Astana, Kazakhstan on December 27th 2016 (27/12/16).

In part this date was chosen to coincide with me paying a visit to my lesbian mothers over Christmas. The thinking being that the controversy over my rather unusual family would exert pressure on all parties. However it seemed that it was going to exert too much pressure so Russia was forced to rearrange those talks for December 20th 2016 (20/12/16) in Moscow, Russia.

In protest over having its plans thwarted Russia staged a plane crash in the Black Sea on December 25th 2016 (25/12/16). In the extremely early hours of Sunday (1/1/17) Turkish President/Prime Minister/Emperor Recep Tayyip Erdogan made his latest contribution to the discussion. This took the form of an apparent terrorist gun attack at the Reina nightclub in Istanbul, Turkey.

As with the December 12th 2016 (12/12/16) bombing at the Besiktas Stadium the Reina nightclub is in the Besiktas district of the city on the banks of the Bosporus Strait. So this allowed Erdogan to re-state his threat to Russia; Give Erdogan exactly what he wants or he will close the Bosporus Strait cutting off sea access to and from Russia's Black Sea ports and Syria's Mediterranean ports such as Latakia.

Although the lone gunman in the Reina attack has yet to be formally identified he is rumoured to be from one of the central Asian nations that are sometimes referred to as; "The Stans."

Including Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan these sit between Afghanistan and Russia's southern border. They are all Muslim nations and it almost goes without saying that Turkmenistan has a very large ethnically Turkish population. Many citizens in these nations have gone to fight both for the Taliban and Al Qaeda in Afghanistan and for the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) and Al Qaeda in Iraq and Syria.

Due to this detail the attack allowed Erdogan to restate a long-standing threat to Russia; Give Erdogan what he wants or he will send Islamist terrorists to conduct attacks in Russia.

This was a particular problem in the run-up to the 2014 Winter Olympics in Sochi, Russia which were preceded by not one but two Islamist terrorist bombings in Volgograd in December 2013. It has also been a growing problem in Kazakhstan - the proposed host of the Syria talks - with attacks in 2016 both in Almaty and Aktobe.

As with the Besiktas Stadium attack the Reina nightclub sits on the European side of the Bosporus Strait. Therefore it allowed Erdogan to re-state his threat to Europe: Give Erdogan what he wants or expect terror attacks.

Following the last time that threat was issued with the December 19th 2016 (19/12/16) Berlin, Germany truck attack all European nations had massively increased security for the biggest party night of the year - New Year's Eve.

In London, UK armed police were deployed for the first time on the underground rail network. In Paris, France 10,000 police and soldiers were deployed to the streets. In Madrid, Spain and extra 800 police were drafted in. It seemed that everywhere concrete barriers and sand filled heavy trucks were added to prevent a repeat of the Berlin attack. 

Quite apart from the fact the night provides an environment saturated with soft targets there is a specific reason why a New Year's Eve party was chosen.

Although it falls just a week after western Christmas celebrations New Year's Eve has no religious significance whatsoever. It simply marks the end of one and the start of another under the Gregorian calender as agreed  at the 1917 Paris Conference on Time-Keeping at Sea.

While it is named after Roman Catholic Christian Pope Gregory XIII who introduced it in 1582 the Gregorian calender also has no religious significance. It was simply that advances in astronomy had made it increasingly clear that the existing Julian calender which is fractionally too short was not sufficient for timekeeping. So Pope Gregory XIII - as one of the most powerful men in the World - introduced an improved one.

The Julian calender which was introduced by Roman Emperor Julius Ceaser was itself a replacement after advances in astronomy made it clear that the existing Roman calender was insufficient for accurate timekeeping. The Roman calender itself had been reformed several times before it was replaced.

Although much better than the Julian calender the Gregorian calender is still far from perfect. That's why every four years we have to add a leap day and this year we actually had to add a leap second.

While the Gregorian calender itself is not religious some religious groups do cling on to the Julian calender for religious reasons. The Russian Orthodox Christian Church for example.

For religious purposes Muslims use the Hijri calender. Being 11 days to short this is not particularly useful for timekeeping which is why Ramadan keeps occurring 11 days earlier every year. As a result for official purposes many Muslim nations use the Gregorian calender instead.

Amongst horologists - those who study the measure of time - New Year's Eve 2016 was quite an exciting one. Not only did you have the leap second it also marked the start of the 100th anniversary of Turkey adopting the Gregorian calender over the Julian calender.  It also marked the moment that Saudi Arabia officially stopped using the Hijri calender and adopted the Gregorian calender.

The decision to scrap the Hijri calender in favour or the Gregorian calender has caused quite a lot of controversy amongst Saudi Arabia's religious clerics. Not only is it named after a Catholic Pope the Salafist or Whabbist perversion of Islam that Saudi Arabia is built on teaches that claiming the Earth orbits the Sun is sinful and haram.

The main reason why Saudi Arabia has adopted the Gregorian calender is purely economic. By adopting a longer calender Saudis are being forced to work an extra 11 days a year without any extra pay. That certainly helps with the Kingdom's current austerity program.

That Saudi Arabia has been forced to drop its commitment to the perversion of Islam that both he and ISIL believe in for economic reasons is a major concern for Erdogan. After all if he ever does follow through on his threats to fight absolutely everyone Saudi Arabia can't afford to back him up.

Of the 39 people killed in the Reina attack 28 of them were foreign nationals. Of those 28 foreign nationals 7 of them were Saudis - by far the largest group. After an attack like this a bridge of communication is established between the government of the nation where the attack took place and the governments of the nations the victims are from to discuss things like repatriation of the dead. It seems that Erdogan is extremely keen to be talking to Saudi Arabia.

The timing of the attack is also interesting. It occurred at  roughly 01:10 local time.

This is one hour ahead of Central European Time (CET). Although parties tend to slowly wind down and people still need to get home the peak of any New Year's Eve party is 00:00. So from a security perspective although the job isn't over from midnight onwards you can start seeing the light at the end of the tunnel. The fact that the Reina attack occurred at 00:10 CET meant that it occurred too late to be a critical threat to much of Europe.

However Britain is currently on Greenwich Meantime (GMT) which is one hour behind CET. So from a UK perspective the Reina attack occurred at 23:10 meaning that it dramatically raised the tension over the 50 minutes remaining until midnight. As such it seemed to be a specific threat to Britain.

Over this past week Britain has been unusually supportive of me. The reason for this is really twofold;

Firstly due to pressure from Erdogan Britain is not officially allowed to speak to groups like the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), the Syrian government or Hezbollah. For its own reasons it is prevented from speaking to Iran or Russia. I though can. So in a war that has created some odd alliances I've sort of become British intelligence's man in Syria.

Also using my domestic situation - particularly the security issue - within Syria negotiations actually puts Britain in a very difficult positions. That's because ultimately being responsible for my - as a British resident - safety and security they know that any failing could have a direct and dramatic impact on the negotiations. However not being party to those negotiations they have no way of knowing what that impact will be. Having been put in a similar situation during the Iran nuclear negotiations I found that a little amusing.

In talking about my security situation on Thursday (29/12/16) I said we were close to the point of the British Special Air Service (SAS) providing a protection detail for my home and my father while I was away visit my mothers.

That description comes from an old Irish rebel song called; "My Old Man's a Provo." It's about how the police and army have surrounded this child's house over Christmas in the hope of capturing his father whose in the Provisional Irish Republican Army (PIRA). Being a cheeky song at one point the father appears down the chimney dressed as Santa Clause.

It was initially - or you could say; "Provisionally" - reported that the Reina attacker had been dressed as Santa Claus.

Also Istanbul had put on extra police officers to provide security for New Year's Eve. Bizarrely some of these police officers were disguised as Santa Claus. So the initial report that the attacker had been dressed as Santa Claus and the fact that a police officer had been killed posed the obvious question of whether the attacker had in fact been one of Erdogan's police officers.

With one of Erdogan's police officers assassinating the Russian Ambassador Andrey Karlov on December 19th (19/12/16) whether you see a distinction between Erdogan and ISIL is obviously a very important question within current Russian/Turkish relations.

At around 18:45 I'll have to pick this up later. Ironically I actually seem to have picked up a cold.

 

The RA-85572 Black Sea Air Crash. Pt 2.

This should be read as a direction continuation of Part 1; http://watchitdie.blogspot.co.uk/2016/12/the-ra-85572-black-sea-air-crash.html

Since writing that post there has been another apparent terrorist attack in Istanbul, Turkey. That is very much Turkish President/Prime Minister/Emperor Recep Tayyip Erdogan's response to events of the past week. Including the RA-85572 crash. So in order to explain that I first have to finish this.

RA-85572 was a Tupolev Tu-154. This type of aircraft first entered service in 1968 and quickly became the workhorse of both the Russian airforce and a number of civilian air carriers although with production ending in 2013 many civilian of civilian operators have begun to phase it out.

Over the course of that 48 year history some of the more than 1,000 Tu-154's have been involved in occasional crashes and incidents. The 2001 shooting down of Siberia Airlines flight 1812 for example.

However probably the most famous Tu-154 crash occurred on April 10th 2010 (10/4/10).

Here a Polish operated Tu-154 crashed while attempting to land at Smolensk North Airport in Smolensk, Russia. The 96 people killed in the crash represented almost all of the leading figures of the Polish Establishment at the time. So there were 18 Members of Parliament (MP's), the President, the head of the central bank, the head of the Polish military and numerous members of the defence staff.

The cause of the crash is well known. With the airport shrouded in thick fog the pilots concluded that it would be unsafe to attempt a landing. However the President's Chief of Staff overruled them ordering them to land. Due to poor visibility the pilots missed the runway and crashed into a wooded area.

The event was so shocking though that it spawned numerous conspiracy theories. Some of these blame the Russians while others blame then Polish Prime Minister and now European Union (EU) President Donald Tusk. The story goes that Tusk killed the opposition MP's to allow him to make the economic reforms needed to allow Poland to join the EU. I should point out though that none of these conspiracy theories are true.

As I mentioned in reference to the use of a Polish truck in the December 19th (19/12/16) terror attack in Berlin, Germany Poland is seen as key factor in the EU's response to the war in Shamali Province and the associated sanctions against Russia.

One of the things that is causing alarm about Poland's governing Justice & Law Party (PiS) is that in 2015 the re-opened the investigation into the Smolensk crash and once again started peddling the particularly anti-Russian conspiracy theories. Another thing that has been causing alarm about the PiS is that they have started pursuing an aggressively Catholic, Conservative agenda including attempts to completely ban abortion.

So people in the west can continue to try and pretend that there aren't significant religious and racial elements to the war in Shamali Province. It's not going to make it true though.

By referencing the Smolensk air crash the RA-85572 also references another air crash. The March 19th 2016 (19/3/16) crash of FlyDubai flight B981 at Rostov-on-Don airport in Rostov, Russia. In turn that crash highlights the importance of never underestimating the random coincidence.

B981 had taken off from Dubai in the United Arab Emirates (UAE). As such it could be seen as a reference to the bombing of 7K9268 or the way that MH17 has been used to punish Russia over its long-standing opposition to Islamist terror groups such as Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) and the allied Army of Conquest/Jaish al-Fatah (JAF).

Rostov-on-Don is where Viktor Yanukovych fled to after US-backed Fascists overthrew the Ukrainian government. The weather conditions at the time of the crash were similar to those at the 2010 Smolensk crash.

So when the news of the B981 crash broke it certainly set of a lot of alarm bells.

However it turns out it was just a plane crash. Being a budget airline FlyDubai didn't want to incur the extra costs associated with diverting to another airport. So they put immense pressure on the pilots to land at Rostov-on-Don which is a notoriously difficult airport to land at. 

During the course of the landing the aircraft was caught in a strong cross-wind. The pilots were no longer able to control the aircraft and it crashed. According to the cockpit voice recorder the pilots died screaming.

The big event of last week was that I went to visit my lesbian mothers on December 27th (27/12/16). Russian President Putin had hoped to use the confusion my rather unconventional family causes to exert pressure on delegates at Syria conference that had originally been scheduled for the same day.

As I've mentioned one of the more controversial issues is that some of my mothers' neighbours are Turkish. This is another example of a random coincidence. However it seems that while Putin was planning to use the uncertainty to exert pressure on others he was hardly certain of the answer himself.

The classic example of the power of random coincidences is the First World War.

This was caused by the assassination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand of Austria in Sarajevo, Serbia on June 28th 1914 (28/6/14). 

In order to achieve this the Serb "Black Hand" group sent six assassins to line the route that the Archduke was parading along in an open topped car. The first assassin threw a bomb at the car wounding the Archduke. As the Archduke was taken to hospital and then to the Town Hall reception he'd been invited to attend the other five assassins melted away with the crowds.

The assassin who actually killed the Archduke - Gavrilo Princip - threw away his bomb and stopped to have coffee at a cafe. On the return from the Town Hall the Archduke's driver took a wrong turn. Realising his mistake he stopped to turn the car around. In a random coincidence he stopped right outside the cafe where Princip was sitting. Princip simply stepped out of the cafe and shot the Archduke.

So yeah. Four years of war and 17 million dead all because of a random coincidence.

Although this obviously all occurred before the 1961 Vienna Convention the so-called Central Powers - the Austria-Hungarian Empire, the German Empire and the Ottoman Empire -  used the assassination as grounds to declare war on Serbia and its allies including Russia, France, Belgium and the UK.

So I think you can understand why the December 19th (19/12/16) assassination of the Russian Ambassador by a Turkish police officer is considered extremely serious.

17:25 on 1/1/17 (UK date).