This should be read as a direct continuation of yesterday's post; http://watchitdie.blogspot.co.uk/2016/12/operation-featherweight-month-29-week-5_20.html
In that post I detailed how Turkish President/Prime Minister/Emperor Recep Tayyip Erdogan has been feeling the pressure ever since Hillary Clinton was defeated in the November 8th (8/11/16) US Presidential election. It is extremely unlikely that America's next President, Donald Trump will give Erdogan anywhere near the level of support as outgoing US President Barack Obama.
I also explained how the December 12th (12/12/16) liberation of the northern Syrian city of Aleppo has caused Erdogan's world to start collapsing around his ears. With Aleppo City liberated not only have the Syrians and their Russian backers secured the country's largest city it now makes it virtually impossible for Erdogan to supply the Al Qaeda-led Army of Conquest/Jaish al-Fatah (JAF) Islamist terror coalition in their positions south of Aleppo City.
Since December 12th (12/12/16) Erdogan has been engaged in a mad scramble to forcibly transfer Aleppo city's civilian population to the area around the city of Idlib - some 60km (35 miles) south-west- which remains under Army of Conquest occupation. This area has been designated as; "The Sudetenland."
This transfer of civilians is still ongoing and subject to almost constant negotiation. Therefore it is really too early to start talking properly about what Erdogan wants to do with those civilians once they've been transferred to the Sudetenland.
However I think that it is pretty obvious that the minimum Erdogan expects is that these civilians will serve as human shields. The idea being that this will prevent the Syrians from now going on to liberate the Sudetenland.
I think Erdogan's dream scenario is that the Army of Conquest will be able to use the Sudetenland as a base of operations. The hope being that with Erdogan's support the Army of Conquest will one day be able to fight their way out of the Sudetenland and conquer all of Syria overthrowing the secular Syrian state.
Between all out victory and all out defeat Erdogan is likely to turn his attentions north of the Sudetenland.
This will bring the Army of Conquest into an area controlled by the moderate Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF/QSD) which is known as the; "Afrin Canton." If the Army of Conquest is able to conquer the Afrin Canton they will link up with the regular Turkish forces currently occupying the roughly 100km (60 mile) stretch between Azaz/Kilis and the Euphrates River which is known as; "Garvaghy Road."
So even if he is not able to fully conquer Syria as part of his new Ottoman Empire Erdogan will certainly attempt to absorb these border areas into Turkey. Hence the comparison with the Sudetenland.
Of course in order to achieve any of these scenarios Erdogan must gain the consent of the Syrians and their Russian and Iranian allies. Either by simply defeating them on the battlefield or through negotiation.
The first round of these negotiation talks were scheduled to take place in Astana, Kazakhstan on December 27th (27/12/16).
However due to the disruption caused by France trying to raise the issue of the Aleppo City transfers at the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) that meeting was brought forward to yesterday (20/12/16) and was held in Moscow, Russia.
Ahead of that meeting Erdogan made an extremely bold opening play.
On Monday (19/12/16) Erdogan sent one of his personal police bodyguards - Mevlut Mert Altintas - to assassinate the Russian Ambassador to Turkey - Andrei Karlov - as he was opening an exhibition on Russian photography at an art gallery in Turkey's capital Ankara.
Under the terms of the 1961 Vienna Convention on Diplomatic Relations Turkey's failure to protect the Ambassador let alone that they carried out the assassination themselves constitutes an act of war by Turkey against Russia. If Russia chooses to treat it as such.
This type of strategy is something that I very much remember from my football days.
Although it sounds counter intuitive if you've got someone who is being aggressive or otherwise unruly sometimes the best thing to do is the moment you approach them say or do the most offensive thing you can think of. I once approached someone from behind, pressed my thumbs into the pressure points in their armpits and lifted them off the ground turning them around 180 degrees in the process.
Obviously if the person reacts to that provocation by throwing a punch at you then you've got the excuse you were looking for to punch them straight back. It must be said though if you were being arrogant in thinking you could win the ensuing fight only to discover that you can't things are not going to end well for you.
However more often then not the speed of the sudden escalation knocks the person off balance and they don't retaliate. Having not retaliated to the extreme provocation it then becomes almost impossible for them to retaliate when you tell them to do something much more reasonable. As a result you then control the situation and the person does what you want them to do.
From his sharp suit, the way he handled his gun and his general demeanour Altintas reminded me of Ilich Ramírez Sánchez (AKA: "Carlos the Jackal"). Or perhaps more accurately the way that he was portrayed by Edgar Ramirez in the 2010 movie "Carlos." Being some six hours long that movie is normally shown in three parts.
Although he's still alive and in prison in France Carlos the Jackal was a very famous terrorist in the 1970's.
During this golden age of international terrorism barely a week went by without gunman hijacking a plane or taking hostages in a building. They would then negotiate the release of these hostages in return for the release of prisoners - often Palestinian ones. More often than not some ropey third world leader would try to boost their international profile by offering to broker the exchange.
Erdogan's attempts to transfer civilians from Aleppo City in exchange for the release of hostages from Foua and Kefraya certainly bring back memories of that era. Those green buses were everywhere in those days.
As I've mentioned before this golden age of terrorism was the result of this arc of resistance that featured the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) in Turkey, the Red Army Faction (RAF) in Germany and the Palestinian Liberation Organisation (PLO). They were countered by similar NATO backed groups such as the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) in Turkey and Combat 18 in the UK and parts of Europe.
However there were also those who set out to imitate those groups in the arc of resistance. So while Germany had the RAF it also had the Revolutionary Cells. The PLO were rivalled by the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine (PFLP).
Carlos the Jackal functioned as the middleman linking these imitation groups together. First as part of the PFLP before branching out on his own as effectively a mercenary.
Annoyingly at around 18:25 on 21/12/16 (UK date) I'm going to have to pick this up after dinner.
Edited at around 20:20 on 21/12/16 (UK date) to add;
The PFLP's probably most famous operation was the June 27th 1976 hijacking of Air France flight 139 from Tel Aviv, Israel to Paris, France shortly after it had made a scheduled stop in Athens, Greece. The hijackers redirected the flight to Entebbe in Uganda where eccentric Ugandan President Idi Amin offered to help them negotiate the release of the hostages in return for 53 prisoners mostly held in Israeli jails.
However the Israelis were in no mood to negotiate. So on July 4th 1976 they conducted what is still considered one of the most spectacular special forces operations in history. This resulted in the deaths of all the hijackers and the safe release of 102 of the 106 hostages. The operation was led by Yonatan Netanyahu
who was killed during the rescue. Yonatan Netanyahu is/was the brother of Benjamin Netanyahu - the current Israeli Prime Minister.
On December 15th (15/12/16) a man by the name of Mohammed al-Zawari was shot and killed outside his home in the Tunisian town of Sfax. An aviation engineer al-Zawari had been working with the Palestinian group Hamas to help them develop military drones.
One effect of Erdogan's interference in Egypt has been to cause a split between Sunni Hamas and their traditional Shia ally Hezbollah. Hamas falling under Erdogan's rather than Iran's influence has caused two wars with Israel in 2012 and 2014. It almost goes without saying that Israel won both of those wars.
So in comparing the current situation in Aleppo City with the 1972 Munich Olympic hostage crisis I may have inadvertently touched a nerve. After all that went very badly for the hostages. It went even worse for the PFLP backed Black September group who planned the attack.
Having been suddenly promoted within the PFLP Carlos the Jackal's probably most famous operation was seizing delegates at a meeting of the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) at a meeting in Vienna, Austria on December 21st 1975.
The plan was that after a ransom had been paid and green buses provided the hostages would be transported to an airport where a waiting plane had been supplied.
The hostages would then be flown to their respective countries and then released after they had made a public statement condemning Yasser Arafat's PLO's attempts to make peace with Israel. The kidnappers would then fly to Aden in what is now Yemen and make good their escape.
Unfortunately the plane - a DC-9 - that Carlos the Jackal had insisted upon didn't have the range to fly to all these countries. So the plan fell to pieces and Carlos the Jackal was expelled from the PFLP in disgrace.
The 2010 movie "Carlos" starts with a disclaimer pointing out that the exact details of these criminal acts backed by Cold War intelligence agencies aren't exactly in the public domain. As such they acknowledge that they've made up large sections of the story.
However the movie claims that the OPEC siege had nothing to do with the Palestinian cause. Instead it claims that the Iraqi government of Ahmed Hassan al-Bakr had paid the PFLP to carry out the operation on its behalf.
The movie goes on to claim that this was done because al-Bakr wanted to start a war with pre-Revolution Iran whose Shah was backing Iraqi Kurdish separatists led by Mustafa Barzani - the father of current President of Iraq's Kurdistan Region Masoud Barzani.
However in order to fund this war al-Bakr needed OPEC to raise the oil price. Saudi Arabia wouldn't allow this so the true mission of the OPEC siege was to kill the Saudi representative while making it look like an accident.
Obviously I cannot in any way comment on how truthful the movie's claims are. However the fact the story exists means that referencing it allows Erdogan to bring all of those issues to the negotiating table.
Erdogan is obviously very interested to know whether Iran will use its influence in both Syria and Iraq to protect the Kurds or will they allow Erdogan to bulldoze his way through the Afrin Canton and Iraqi Kurdistan Region.
Following yesterday's meeting a bomb went off in the offices of the Iranian branch of Barzani's Kurdish Democratic Party (KDPI) in the town of Koya just east of Erbil. Now this could be a sign that Iran's is prepared to allow Erdogan to go after the Kurds. However it could also have been a signal that is what was being discussed at the meeting.
Either way the Kurds - particularly Barzani - should consider it a warning. After all despite two years of airstrikes they still seem to view Erdogan as their friend and Shias as their enemy. That sort of attitude hardly encourages Iran to do him the sort of favours they did for his father.
The December 2016 OPEC meeting was also quite interesting. Both Russia and Saudi Arabia agreed to cut production to drive up the oil price. However Iran will be allowed to grow its production meaning that it will benefit the most from the price rise.
The reason why Saudi Arabia has made this concession to its great regional rival that its current war against Yemen is bleeding it dry.
Saudi Arabia is currently struggling to honour its contracts and has been forced to cut the support it gives to Egypt in return for Egypt participating in the Yemen war. In nations like the UK and the US there have been moves to stop supplying advanced weapons to Saudi Arabia. Rather than being over humanitarian concerns that is the result of a growing doubts that Saudi Arabia can no longer afford to pay for those weapons.
So adding to Erdogan's headaches if he does decide to go to war with Syria, Iran, Iraq, Russia, Europe and the US he can't rely on Saudi Arabia to support him. They can't afford it.
Yesterday (20/12/16) there were rumblings that Erdogan intended to blame the assassination of Karlov on the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP). That of course would allow Erdogan to crack down on the MHP alongside the People's Democratic Party (HDP) meaning that only Erdogan's Justice & Development Party (AKP) will get to vote on this constitutional reform bill.
However today Erdogan has come out and fully blamed the assassination of the Fettulah Gulen movement.
Turkey is currently trying to extradite Gulen from the US. Linking him to the assassination of an Ambassador would certainly increase pressure on the US to comply.
Erdogan seems to be gambling on Russian President Putin having such a deep hatred of the US that the opportunity to embarrass them will be compensation enough for the murder of one of his Ambassadors.
It is the equivalent of Erdogan slapping the weeping Putin he's just raped on the backside and telling him; "Stop your crying. I'll buy you something nice to make up for it."
Meanwhile there are rumblings that Russia is about to set Ramzan Kadyrov on Erdogan. If Erdogan does not know that name I suggest that he learns it quickly.
21:55 on 21/12/16 (UK date).
Wednesday, 21 December 2016
Tuesday, 20 December 2016
Operation Featherweight: Month 29, Week 5, Day 2.
In 1994 Recep Tayyip Erdogan became Mayor of the Turkish city of Istanbul. He represented the Islamist Welfare Party (RP).
At a Welfare Party rally in 1997 Erdogan recited a poem by famous Turkish poet Ziya Goklap. However Erdogan changed the words to instruct his Islamist followers that; "The mosques are our barracks, the domes our helmets, the minarets our bayonets and the faithful our soldiers" in a call for his holy Muslim army to overthrow the secular Turkish state.
Obviously this call for armed insurrection and religious warfare did not go down well with the secular Turkish state. So Erdogan was sent to prison for 10 months and the Welfare Party was disbanded.
Upon release from prison Erdogan formed the Islamist Justice & Development Party (AKP) who are sometimes known simply as; "The AK." In the 2002 the AKP won a large Parliamentary majority. However due to his conviction for inciting violence and racial hatred Erdogan was unable to take up the post of Prime Minister.
So the AKP simply made Abdullah Gul Prime Minister. Gul's one task as Prime Minister was to quash Erdogan's conviction allowing him to take over as Prime Minister in early 2003. Erdogan then set about pursuing a Neo-Ottoman strategy. In short he wants to re-establish the Ottoman Empire - the last Islamist Caliphate.
In early 2011 the people of Egypt overthrew the dictatorship of Hosni Mubarak. Egypt hat always been extremely important to the Ottoman Empire. It was the defeat of the Egypt based Mamluk Empire in the 16th century that allowed the Ottoman Empire to expand across the entire Middle-East, North Africa (MENA) region.
So Erdogan leapt at this opportunity to realise his dream of a new Ottoman Empire by installing the puppet regime of Islamist Mohamed Morsi in power in Egypt. Unfortunately for Erdogan in July 2013 the Egyptian people decided that they didn't want to be part of a new Ottoman Empire so overthrow Morsi just as they'd done with Mubarak.
Since then Erdogan has been sponsoring Islamist terror groups - particularly the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant's (ISIL) Sinai Province - to wage a low intensity armed insurrection and religious war in the hope of overthrowing Egypt's secular state. I say "low intensity" but it's got to the point where I now barely read the reports of terror attacks in Egypt. There are just some many of them and the strategic analysis is always the same.
Obviously control of Turkey and control of Egypt isn't much of an empire. So while he was trying to install the Morsi regime in Egypt Erdogan has also been trying to bulldoze his way through Syria and Iraq. He has done this by sponsoring Islamist terror groups - specifically ISIL and the allied Army of Conquest/Jaish al-Fatah (JAF) coalition - to wage religious warfare in the hope of overthrowing both the nominally secular Iraqi state and the secular Syrian state.
On August 25th 2016 (25/8/16) Erdogan even went so far as to send regular Turkish troops to illegally invade and occupy Syria. Specifically a roughly 100km (60 mile) wide area between Azaz/Kilis and the Euphrates River. The purpose of this invasion was to preserve supply lines running between Turkey and ISIL to the south-east and the JAF to the south-west. As such this area has become known as; "Garvaghy Road."
Erdogan's dreams of empire hit a small snag in August 2014 when he exceeded the term limits on Prime Minister's laid out in the Turkish constitution.
So Erdogan simply stepped down as Prime Minister and took up the ceremonial role of President. Erdogan then appointed Ahmet Davutoglu as Prime Minister. However in May 2016 Davutoglu made the mistake of disagreeing with Erdogan so Erdogan simply replaced him with the much more obedient Bilial Yidirim.
In taking on the role of President Erdogan's plan was always to change the constitution to make the President rather than the Prime Minister head of Turkey's executive branch. And presumably scrap Presidential term limits while he's at it.
This plan hit another little snag in June 2015 when the Turkish people rejected the AKP in the General Election leaving it without the Parliamentary majority it needed to change the constitution.
However fortunately for Erdogan US President Barack Obama decided to swoop in and side with Erdogan against the Turkish people. He gave Erdogan permission to start bombing Kurdish anti-ISIL forces in northern Iraq. This ended the ceasefire with the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) or more accurately their armed wing the People's Defence Forces (HPG).
As I'm sure Americans who remember the aftermath of the September 11th 2001 (11/9/01) terror attacks will know moving Turkey to a war footing allowed Erdogan to silence all opposition to him. Wrapped in the flag and soaked in the blood of the martyrs the AKP went on to secure a small majority in the new election that Erdogan held in November 2015.
On July 15th 2016 (15/7/16) Erdogan's dreams of empire hit another tiny little snag in the form of a popular uprising against his dictatorship. This pitted the Turkish military who are loyal to the constitution against the Turkish police who are loyal to Erdogan.
However once again US President Obama swooped into side with Erdogan against the Turkish people. Just as the intifada reached a critical stage the US broadcaster CNN gave Erdogan airtime - or more accurately Facetime - to re-establish his rule over the long suffering nation.
I'm sure those who are familiar with recent Turkish and Egyptian politics will know that the Rihanna single; "Sledgehammer" is dedicated to the preservation of the Erdogan regime.
On November 8th (8/11/16) Erdogan's dream's of empire hit a much more substantial snag.
US Presidential term limits meant that Erdogan's main protector Barack Obama was forced to stand down. What made matters much worse is that US voters decided not to give the job of President to Obama's designated successor; Hillary Clinton.
I can't speak for incoming US President Donald Trump but I think it is unlikely that he will extend the same level of support and protection to Erdogan as Obama did. After all Barack Obama seems so enamoured with Erdogan that Michelle Obama is probably feeling quite jealous.
In a possible sign that a great a dark cloud is beginning to lift from the continent on November 24th (24/11/16) the European Parliament voted to suspend talks with Turkey over its plans to join the European Union (EU). There have also been some rumblings from the US Army Corp of Engineers regarding occupation camps and legal easements.
Starting to worry Erdogan has embarked on a campaign to find out where he stands in the Donald Trump era;
On November 29th (29/11/16) a fire tore through a school dormitory in the town of Aladag in Turkey's Adana province. I covered this in detail here; http://watchitdie.blogspot.co.uk/2016/12/operation-featherweight-month-29-week-3_10.html
However the summary version is that Adana is one of the main ports at which Erdogan has been stuffing irregular migrants/refugees onto boats to Europe as he works with ISIL and the JAF to ethnically cleanse the new Ottoman Empire. The spectacle of the fire brought back memories of very serious Islamist terror attacks in Chibok in Nigeria, Garissa in Kenya and Peshawar in Pakistan.
As such the fire was intended as a threat to the EU. Either give Erdogan exactly what he wants or he will once again flood Europe with irregular migrants/refugees. Hidden amongst them will be Islamists terrorists under instruction to carry out mass casualty attacks on the scale of the Paris Massacres, the Nice Massacre or the Brussels attacks.
On December 10th (10/12/16) Erdogan staged a bombing against police officers at the Besiktas football stadium on the European side of the Bosporus Strait. Again I covered this in detail here; http://watchitdie.blogspot.co.uk/2016/12/operation-featherweight-month-29-week-4.html
However the summary version is that apart from being a threat to Russia that Erdogan would close the Bosporus Strait this was again a threat to Europe. Either give Erdogan exactly what he wants or expect Islamist terror attacks.
After all three days before the Brussels attacks Erdogan gave a speech on the shores of the Bosporus marking the 100th anniversary of the Canakkale/Gallipoli campaign. On the subject of terrorism Erdogan said; "Brussels will be next."
On December 12th (12/12/16) Erdogan's dreams of empire came crashing down around his ears. Backed by Russia the Syrians finally managed to liberate the northern Syrian city of Aleppo from the Army of Conquest.
This is the equivalent of a very large road block being placed across Garvaghy Road. With Aleppo City liberated Erdogan is no longer able to supply Army of Conquest positions south of there. I guess that makes the northern neighbourhoods of Aleppo City; "Drumcree's Church of Ascension."
Since then Erdogan has been engaged in something of a mad scramble. What he's been trying to do is forcibly transfer Aleppo City's civilian population to an area to the south-west around Idlib City which is under Army of Conquest control. This area has been designated; "The Sudetenland."
In the Sudetenland Erdogan is trying to build a particular camp controlled by the regular Turkish military for the civilians who have been forcibly transferred from Aleppo City. Although the exact location has not yet been selected let alone the camp actually built it has already been designated as; "Long Kesh."
Russia and to a lesser extent Syria have said that they are okay with Erdogan's plan to transfer some of Aleppo City's civilians. They are even prepared to provide green buses to facilitate transfer. However in return they want Erdogan to release an equal or greater number of Syrian civilians already being held hostage within the Sudetenland - specifically in the villages of Foua and Kefraya.
As a result this is starting to resemble the sort prisoner for hostage swap deal that were so popular during that golden age of international terrorism - the 1970's. However as I've said it's probably best that absolutely nobody involved in this situation talks to the police.
I don't think it is possible for me to overstate the extent to which France has helped absolutely no-one with it's attempts to raise this situation at the United Nations Security Council (UNSC).
However there have certainly been some interesting noises coming from the UK.
At around 18:40 on 20/12/16 (UK date) I'll try and pick this up after dinner. But even if I do it seems unlikely that I'll be finished tonight.
Edited at around 20:35 on 20/12/16 (UK date) to add;
For example on Friday (16/12/16) the UK announced that it will be sending extra humanitarian aid to help the civilians of Aleppo City. However crucially it did not make clear whether this aid will go to the civilians who remain in Aleppo City or only to the civilians who promise to join Erdogan in the Sudetenland.
What Erdogan, France and the US have been trying to do is use humanitarian aid to coerce civilians onto the buses to the Sudetenland by telling them that they will allow those who remain to starve to death.
So you remember all those times people have stood up and accused the Syrian government of using starvation as a weapon of war? Well it's true. That is exactly what the people making those accusations have themselves been doing.
Fortunately over the weekend France and the US at least seem to have agreed to stop doing that in Aleppo City.
However I'm disappointed to report that while I've been writing this the Aleppo affiliate of the the International Committee of the Red Cross/Crescent (ICRC) have taken to Twitter via the current US Ambassador to the UN. They seem to be trying to taunt both me and the International Criminal Court (ICC) with the news that while they've forcibly transferred 25,000 civilians from Aleppo City they've only managed to secure the release of 750 hostages from Foua and Kefraya.
Also on Friday (16/12/16) the UK let it be known that it's airforce had unmanned drones in the skies over Aleppo City. That poses the obvious follow up questions of whether they were armed drones or unarmed drone and what other military assets the UK would be able to bring to bear on the situation.
This was of course all occurring against the backdrop of the riot at Her Majesty's Prison (HMP) Birmingham in, well, Birmingham, UK.
Apart from being a bloody good laugh that was intended as a discussion with what to do with the increasing numbers of ISIL & JAF prisoners being held at both the Qarrayah detention facility in Iraq and the Aleppo airport detention facility in Syria.
When I get around to it we will be talking extensively about the technical aspects of operating a prison such as the physical design of the building and what is known as; "The Regime." The prison regime covers things like how many prisoners there are in a cell, whether those prisoners are segregated from each other in any way, how many guards are on duty, etc.
However as the day started making like "Pierre the Famous French Fighter Pilot" (i.e going down in flames) much started be made of the fact that within the British prison system riot control teams are designated; "Tornado." This is the same designation given to the GR4 "Tornado" which functions as the UK airforce's main strike aircraft.
So I suppose if you were suffering from a guilty conscience you might get the impression that the British airforce was saying that it was prepared to conduct airstrikes to prevent the forcible transfer of civilians out of Aleppo City.
Of course if you were suffering from no conscience at all you would be David Cameron. And once again be desperate for the British airforce to act as ISIL's airforce.
So on Saturday (17/12/16) Erdogan staged yet another bombing. This time against a bus carrying airforce personnel in Keysari. This obviously created a spectacle that looked very much as if one of the buses leaving Aleppo City had been resolved by an airstrike.
Also Keysari is almost directly north of Adana. So this again served as a repeated warning to the EU. Either give Erdogan exactly what he wants or expect terror attacks.
However it also seemed very similar to the February 17th 2016 (17/2/16) bombing that Erdogan staged in Ankara.
At the time of that bombing the UK was discussing how to counter the extremist propaganda that was being distributed by both ISIL and JAF terrorists. The 1988 to 1994 UK broadcasting ban on the Northern Irish Troubles obviously played a large part in this discussion. Particularly its failings.
Monday December 12th (12/12/16) JAF terrorists in Aleppo City took to social media in a coordinated campaign to post tearful "Goodbye" messages in which they all claimed the were going to be murdered by the Syrians. On Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday, Friday those same terrorists were appearing live on TV across the western media. Not one journalist asked them the obvious question.
Being able to remember the Northern Irish Troubles I think that not only qualifies as; "Giving Voice to the Terrorist Cause" it firmly crosses the line into; "Taking the f*cking p*ss."
The 1988 to 1994 broadcasting ban was brought in as response to the Ballgawley massacre. Here 8 British soldiers were killed when their bus was bombed. The Ankara bombing obviously sought to recreate that.
Britain laughed full in Erdogan's face he tried to blame that attack on the PKK. Ever since then Erdogan has been desperate to know how we can tell that he's lying.
At around 21:45 on 20/12/16 (UK date) there may be a further short rally. However it may not be tonight.
Edited again at around 23:20 on 20/12/16 (UK date) to add;
On the domestic front it almost goes without saying that Erdogan immediately blamed the Keysari bombing on the PKK.
As I may have mentioned once or twice the PKK were formed as part of the great arc of resistance that stretched across the World during the golden age of terrorism. To counter this arc of resistance the NATO nations established their own network of terror groups under the "Gladio" movement.
To counter the PKK and their armed wing the HPG in Turkey the NATO nations established the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) and their armed wing; "The Grey Wolves."
You will notice in the staging of these bombing Erdogan always blames the PKK rather than their armed wing the HPG. This is a deliberate strategy to falsely convince the Turkish people that the predominately Kurdish People's Democratic Party (HDP) is the political wing of the PKK.
So almost as if it was a reflex honed over 30 years the moment Erdogan blamed the PKK supporters of the MHP - including members of the Grey Wolves - stormed the HDP offices in Keysari.
Keen to show that he is President of all the people Erdogan immediately ordered those MHP supporters to be arrested.
So in June 2015 there were four political parties in Turkey.
But it seems that only one of those political parties will be allowed to vote on this constitutional reform bill.
23:40 on 20/12/16 (UK date).
At a Welfare Party rally in 1997 Erdogan recited a poem by famous Turkish poet Ziya Goklap. However Erdogan changed the words to instruct his Islamist followers that; "The mosques are our barracks, the domes our helmets, the minarets our bayonets and the faithful our soldiers" in a call for his holy Muslim army to overthrow the secular Turkish state.
Obviously this call for armed insurrection and religious warfare did not go down well with the secular Turkish state. So Erdogan was sent to prison for 10 months and the Welfare Party was disbanded.
Upon release from prison Erdogan formed the Islamist Justice & Development Party (AKP) who are sometimes known simply as; "The AK." In the 2002 the AKP won a large Parliamentary majority. However due to his conviction for inciting violence and racial hatred Erdogan was unable to take up the post of Prime Minister.
So the AKP simply made Abdullah Gul Prime Minister. Gul's one task as Prime Minister was to quash Erdogan's conviction allowing him to take over as Prime Minister in early 2003. Erdogan then set about pursuing a Neo-Ottoman strategy. In short he wants to re-establish the Ottoman Empire - the last Islamist Caliphate.
In early 2011 the people of Egypt overthrew the dictatorship of Hosni Mubarak. Egypt hat always been extremely important to the Ottoman Empire. It was the defeat of the Egypt based Mamluk Empire in the 16th century that allowed the Ottoman Empire to expand across the entire Middle-East, North Africa (MENA) region.
So Erdogan leapt at this opportunity to realise his dream of a new Ottoman Empire by installing the puppet regime of Islamist Mohamed Morsi in power in Egypt. Unfortunately for Erdogan in July 2013 the Egyptian people decided that they didn't want to be part of a new Ottoman Empire so overthrow Morsi just as they'd done with Mubarak.
Since then Erdogan has been sponsoring Islamist terror groups - particularly the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant's (ISIL) Sinai Province - to wage a low intensity armed insurrection and religious war in the hope of overthrowing Egypt's secular state. I say "low intensity" but it's got to the point where I now barely read the reports of terror attacks in Egypt. There are just some many of them and the strategic analysis is always the same.
Obviously control of Turkey and control of Egypt isn't much of an empire. So while he was trying to install the Morsi regime in Egypt Erdogan has also been trying to bulldoze his way through Syria and Iraq. He has done this by sponsoring Islamist terror groups - specifically ISIL and the allied Army of Conquest/Jaish al-Fatah (JAF) coalition - to wage religious warfare in the hope of overthrowing both the nominally secular Iraqi state and the secular Syrian state.
On August 25th 2016 (25/8/16) Erdogan even went so far as to send regular Turkish troops to illegally invade and occupy Syria. Specifically a roughly 100km (60 mile) wide area between Azaz/Kilis and the Euphrates River. The purpose of this invasion was to preserve supply lines running between Turkey and ISIL to the south-east and the JAF to the south-west. As such this area has become known as; "Garvaghy Road."
Erdogan's dreams of empire hit a small snag in August 2014 when he exceeded the term limits on Prime Minister's laid out in the Turkish constitution.
So Erdogan simply stepped down as Prime Minister and took up the ceremonial role of President. Erdogan then appointed Ahmet Davutoglu as Prime Minister. However in May 2016 Davutoglu made the mistake of disagreeing with Erdogan so Erdogan simply replaced him with the much more obedient Bilial Yidirim.
In taking on the role of President Erdogan's plan was always to change the constitution to make the President rather than the Prime Minister head of Turkey's executive branch. And presumably scrap Presidential term limits while he's at it.
This plan hit another little snag in June 2015 when the Turkish people rejected the AKP in the General Election leaving it without the Parliamentary majority it needed to change the constitution.
However fortunately for Erdogan US President Barack Obama decided to swoop in and side with Erdogan against the Turkish people. He gave Erdogan permission to start bombing Kurdish anti-ISIL forces in northern Iraq. This ended the ceasefire with the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) or more accurately their armed wing the People's Defence Forces (HPG).
As I'm sure Americans who remember the aftermath of the September 11th 2001 (11/9/01) terror attacks will know moving Turkey to a war footing allowed Erdogan to silence all opposition to him. Wrapped in the flag and soaked in the blood of the martyrs the AKP went on to secure a small majority in the new election that Erdogan held in November 2015.
On July 15th 2016 (15/7/16) Erdogan's dreams of empire hit another tiny little snag in the form of a popular uprising against his dictatorship. This pitted the Turkish military who are loyal to the constitution against the Turkish police who are loyal to Erdogan.
However once again US President Obama swooped into side with Erdogan against the Turkish people. Just as the intifada reached a critical stage the US broadcaster CNN gave Erdogan airtime - or more accurately Facetime - to re-establish his rule over the long suffering nation.
I'm sure those who are familiar with recent Turkish and Egyptian politics will know that the Rihanna single; "Sledgehammer" is dedicated to the preservation of the Erdogan regime.
On November 8th (8/11/16) Erdogan's dream's of empire hit a much more substantial snag.
US Presidential term limits meant that Erdogan's main protector Barack Obama was forced to stand down. What made matters much worse is that US voters decided not to give the job of President to Obama's designated successor; Hillary Clinton.
I can't speak for incoming US President Donald Trump but I think it is unlikely that he will extend the same level of support and protection to Erdogan as Obama did. After all Barack Obama seems so enamoured with Erdogan that Michelle Obama is probably feeling quite jealous.
In a possible sign that a great a dark cloud is beginning to lift from the continent on November 24th (24/11/16) the European Parliament voted to suspend talks with Turkey over its plans to join the European Union (EU). There have also been some rumblings from the US Army Corp of Engineers regarding occupation camps and legal easements.
Starting to worry Erdogan has embarked on a campaign to find out where he stands in the Donald Trump era;
On November 29th (29/11/16) a fire tore through a school dormitory in the town of Aladag in Turkey's Adana province. I covered this in detail here; http://watchitdie.blogspot.co.uk/2016/12/operation-featherweight-month-29-week-3_10.html
However the summary version is that Adana is one of the main ports at which Erdogan has been stuffing irregular migrants/refugees onto boats to Europe as he works with ISIL and the JAF to ethnically cleanse the new Ottoman Empire. The spectacle of the fire brought back memories of very serious Islamist terror attacks in Chibok in Nigeria, Garissa in Kenya and Peshawar in Pakistan.
As such the fire was intended as a threat to the EU. Either give Erdogan exactly what he wants or he will once again flood Europe with irregular migrants/refugees. Hidden amongst them will be Islamists terrorists under instruction to carry out mass casualty attacks on the scale of the Paris Massacres, the Nice Massacre or the Brussels attacks.
On December 10th (10/12/16) Erdogan staged a bombing against police officers at the Besiktas football stadium on the European side of the Bosporus Strait. Again I covered this in detail here; http://watchitdie.blogspot.co.uk/2016/12/operation-featherweight-month-29-week-4.html
However the summary version is that apart from being a threat to Russia that Erdogan would close the Bosporus Strait this was again a threat to Europe. Either give Erdogan exactly what he wants or expect Islamist terror attacks.
After all three days before the Brussels attacks Erdogan gave a speech on the shores of the Bosporus marking the 100th anniversary of the Canakkale/Gallipoli campaign. On the subject of terrorism Erdogan said; "Brussels will be next."
On December 12th (12/12/16) Erdogan's dreams of empire came crashing down around his ears. Backed by Russia the Syrians finally managed to liberate the northern Syrian city of Aleppo from the Army of Conquest.
This is the equivalent of a very large road block being placed across Garvaghy Road. With Aleppo City liberated Erdogan is no longer able to supply Army of Conquest positions south of there. I guess that makes the northern neighbourhoods of Aleppo City; "Drumcree's Church of Ascension."
Since then Erdogan has been engaged in something of a mad scramble. What he's been trying to do is forcibly transfer Aleppo City's civilian population to an area to the south-west around Idlib City which is under Army of Conquest control. This area has been designated; "The Sudetenland."
In the Sudetenland Erdogan is trying to build a particular camp controlled by the regular Turkish military for the civilians who have been forcibly transferred from Aleppo City. Although the exact location has not yet been selected let alone the camp actually built it has already been designated as; "Long Kesh."
Russia and to a lesser extent Syria have said that they are okay with Erdogan's plan to transfer some of Aleppo City's civilians. They are even prepared to provide green buses to facilitate transfer. However in return they want Erdogan to release an equal or greater number of Syrian civilians already being held hostage within the Sudetenland - specifically in the villages of Foua and Kefraya.
As a result this is starting to resemble the sort prisoner for hostage swap deal that were so popular during that golden age of international terrorism - the 1970's. However as I've said it's probably best that absolutely nobody involved in this situation talks to the police.
I don't think it is possible for me to overstate the extent to which France has helped absolutely no-one with it's attempts to raise this situation at the United Nations Security Council (UNSC).
However there have certainly been some interesting noises coming from the UK.
At around 18:40 on 20/12/16 (UK date) I'll try and pick this up after dinner. But even if I do it seems unlikely that I'll be finished tonight.
Edited at around 20:35 on 20/12/16 (UK date) to add;
For example on Friday (16/12/16) the UK announced that it will be sending extra humanitarian aid to help the civilians of Aleppo City. However crucially it did not make clear whether this aid will go to the civilians who remain in Aleppo City or only to the civilians who promise to join Erdogan in the Sudetenland.
What Erdogan, France and the US have been trying to do is use humanitarian aid to coerce civilians onto the buses to the Sudetenland by telling them that they will allow those who remain to starve to death.
So you remember all those times people have stood up and accused the Syrian government of using starvation as a weapon of war? Well it's true. That is exactly what the people making those accusations have themselves been doing.
Fortunately over the weekend France and the US at least seem to have agreed to stop doing that in Aleppo City.
However I'm disappointed to report that while I've been writing this the Aleppo affiliate of the the International Committee of the Red Cross/Crescent (ICRC) have taken to Twitter via the current US Ambassador to the UN. They seem to be trying to taunt both me and the International Criminal Court (ICC) with the news that while they've forcibly transferred 25,000 civilians from Aleppo City they've only managed to secure the release of 750 hostages from Foua and Kefraya.
Also on Friday (16/12/16) the UK let it be known that it's airforce had unmanned drones in the skies over Aleppo City. That poses the obvious follow up questions of whether they were armed drones or unarmed drone and what other military assets the UK would be able to bring to bear on the situation.
This was of course all occurring against the backdrop of the riot at Her Majesty's Prison (HMP) Birmingham in, well, Birmingham, UK.
Apart from being a bloody good laugh that was intended as a discussion with what to do with the increasing numbers of ISIL & JAF prisoners being held at both the Qarrayah detention facility in Iraq and the Aleppo airport detention facility in Syria.
When I get around to it we will be talking extensively about the technical aspects of operating a prison such as the physical design of the building and what is known as; "The Regime." The prison regime covers things like how many prisoners there are in a cell, whether those prisoners are segregated from each other in any way, how many guards are on duty, etc.
However as the day started making like "Pierre the Famous French Fighter Pilot" (i.e going down in flames) much started be made of the fact that within the British prison system riot control teams are designated; "Tornado." This is the same designation given to the GR4 "Tornado" which functions as the UK airforce's main strike aircraft.
So I suppose if you were suffering from a guilty conscience you might get the impression that the British airforce was saying that it was prepared to conduct airstrikes to prevent the forcible transfer of civilians out of Aleppo City.
Of course if you were suffering from no conscience at all you would be David Cameron. And once again be desperate for the British airforce to act as ISIL's airforce.
So on Saturday (17/12/16) Erdogan staged yet another bombing. This time against a bus carrying airforce personnel in Keysari. This obviously created a spectacle that looked very much as if one of the buses leaving Aleppo City had been resolved by an airstrike.
Also Keysari is almost directly north of Adana. So this again served as a repeated warning to the EU. Either give Erdogan exactly what he wants or expect terror attacks.
However it also seemed very similar to the February 17th 2016 (17/2/16) bombing that Erdogan staged in Ankara.
At the time of that bombing the UK was discussing how to counter the extremist propaganda that was being distributed by both ISIL and JAF terrorists. The 1988 to 1994 UK broadcasting ban on the Northern Irish Troubles obviously played a large part in this discussion. Particularly its failings.
Monday December 12th (12/12/16) JAF terrorists in Aleppo City took to social media in a coordinated campaign to post tearful "Goodbye" messages in which they all claimed the were going to be murdered by the Syrians. On Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday, Friday those same terrorists were appearing live on TV across the western media. Not one journalist asked them the obvious question.
Being able to remember the Northern Irish Troubles I think that not only qualifies as; "Giving Voice to the Terrorist Cause" it firmly crosses the line into; "Taking the f*cking p*ss."
The 1988 to 1994 broadcasting ban was brought in as response to the Ballgawley massacre. Here 8 British soldiers were killed when their bus was bombed. The Ankara bombing obviously sought to recreate that.
Britain laughed full in Erdogan's face he tried to blame that attack on the PKK. Ever since then Erdogan has been desperate to know how we can tell that he's lying.
At around 21:45 on 20/12/16 (UK date) there may be a further short rally. However it may not be tonight.
Edited again at around 23:20 on 20/12/16 (UK date) to add;
On the domestic front it almost goes without saying that Erdogan immediately blamed the Keysari bombing on the PKK.
As I may have mentioned once or twice the PKK were formed as part of the great arc of resistance that stretched across the World during the golden age of terrorism. To counter this arc of resistance the NATO nations established their own network of terror groups under the "Gladio" movement.
To counter the PKK and their armed wing the HPG in Turkey the NATO nations established the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) and their armed wing; "The Grey Wolves."
You will notice in the staging of these bombing Erdogan always blames the PKK rather than their armed wing the HPG. This is a deliberate strategy to falsely convince the Turkish people that the predominately Kurdish People's Democratic Party (HDP) is the political wing of the PKK.
So almost as if it was a reflex honed over 30 years the moment Erdogan blamed the PKK supporters of the MHP - including members of the Grey Wolves - stormed the HDP offices in Keysari.
Keen to show that he is President of all the people Erdogan immediately ordered those MHP supporters to be arrested.
So in June 2015 there were four political parties in Turkey.
But it seems that only one of those political parties will be allowed to vote on this constitutional reform bill.
23:40 on 20/12/16 (UK date).
Monday, 19 December 2016
So Oranges ARE the Only Fruit.
In the winter of 2015 we had the 21st Conference of Parties (CO21) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). This was supposed to end with a comprehensive global agreement to combat climate change that would go beyond the work of the expiring Kyoto Protocol.
In order to build the suspense before the summit the BBC's special projects produced and broadcast a program called; "London Spy." This was heavily inspired by the 2010 death of Gareth Williams - a gay man working for Britain's MI6 spy agency who was found dead locked inside a bag in his London home.
The TV show centred around a young gay man who entered into a relationship with a man who ended up being found dead locked inside a trunk in his London home. As it emerged that the dead man was a spy the story developed into mystery that uncovered a conspiracy amongst all the World's major spy agencies to prevent this world changing theory this man had been working on from ever seeing the light of day.
That of course was intended to serve as a metaphor for the way that US President Obama arrived at COP21 and snatched away what everybody had spent the previous five years working on to replace it with what is to all intents and purposes a blank sheet of paper. That blank piece of paper has become known as; "The Paris Agreement" or; "The 12/12 Atrocity."
November 2016 has seen the 22nd Conference of Parties (COP22). So the BBC have been back with yet another spy drama entitled; "Close to the Enemy." I think it's fair to assume that this isn't supposed to be taken anywhere near as seriously as London Spy.
For example the hero of London Spy is played by the actor Ben Wishaw. Close to the Enemy features the actor Freddie Highmore who looks a bit like Wishaw. However far from being the hero of the story Highmore's character is almost the village idiot constantly getting in the way of the heroes of the story.
One of the things that make London Spy stand out was its very graphic portrayals of gay male sex. This was against a backdrop of British TV seeming to get ever more prudish in terms of on screen portrayals of sex and nudity.
A prime example of this new found prudishness was the series "Life in Squares" which was billed as being the sexiest programs ever to be broadcast despite featuring absolutely no sex or nudity whatsoever. One of the lead actresses in Life in Square was Phoebe Fox who plays really the female lead in Close to the Enemy. I can report that Close to the Enemy not only features heterosexual sex scenes but also - I would say - rather pointedly, female nipples
Set just after the Second World War the plot centres around efforts to get a brilliant German jet engineer to work by Britain. The British think this brilliant engineer will help them break the sound barrier allowing them to fly faster than everybody else. That is my character in the piece.
As part of their efforts to recruit this engineer the British first try intimidating him. They claim that if he doesn't help them they'll falsely accuse him of carrying out Nazi war crimes and ship him off to the Nuremberg Trials. This is a reference to the whole thing with my Grandmother.
For many years Britain justified her mis-treatment as part of a medical experiment into Dementia. That of course would represent a crime against humanity in violation of the Nuremberg codes on medical ethics thus making it an issue of international law. However if Britain had said that they were simply trying to steal her money and house that would be a simple matter of domestic law.
The fact that Britain was choosing the explanation that made it sound way more guilty does make you really start to question the quality of the British government's legal advisers.
Eventually they realise that dragging this devilishly handsome genius from his home and family in order to threaten isn't encouraging him to help. So instead they change direction and try being nice to him.
Obviously being set at the end of the Second World War the topic of how the war started in the first place does come. Particularly Nazi Germany's 1938 invasion of Czechoslovakia which has such relevance to the current war on Syria.
Also Angela Basset does turn up as an obviously black singer who has been banished from America over claims her support for the civil rights movement makes her a Communist. That obviously touches on the 2016 Oscars diversity row. Particularly the "Trumbo" about the screenwriter Dalton Trumbo who was blacklisted by Hollywood for similar reasons.
I think what really sums up the show is that in 1985 British author Jeanette Winterson published the book; "Oranges Are Not the Only Fruit." This is intended to serve as a metaphor for Winterson coming to terms with her homosexuality. It is sort of an icon of lesbian literature.
Close to the Enemy is set during a period where food rationing was still very much in effect in Britain. As a result certainly in the opening episodes Oranges are the only fruit you will see on screen. That strikes me as a little in joke at the expense of the great rivalry between gay men an lesbians.
So yeah. I think Britain may have slipped into Panto season a little early this year.
17:10 on 19/12/16 (UK date).
In order to build the suspense before the summit the BBC's special projects produced and broadcast a program called; "London Spy." This was heavily inspired by the 2010 death of Gareth Williams - a gay man working for Britain's MI6 spy agency who was found dead locked inside a bag in his London home.
The TV show centred around a young gay man who entered into a relationship with a man who ended up being found dead locked inside a trunk in his London home. As it emerged that the dead man was a spy the story developed into mystery that uncovered a conspiracy amongst all the World's major spy agencies to prevent this world changing theory this man had been working on from ever seeing the light of day.
That of course was intended to serve as a metaphor for the way that US President Obama arrived at COP21 and snatched away what everybody had spent the previous five years working on to replace it with what is to all intents and purposes a blank sheet of paper. That blank piece of paper has become known as; "The Paris Agreement" or; "The 12/12 Atrocity."
November 2016 has seen the 22nd Conference of Parties (COP22). So the BBC have been back with yet another spy drama entitled; "Close to the Enemy." I think it's fair to assume that this isn't supposed to be taken anywhere near as seriously as London Spy.
For example the hero of London Spy is played by the actor Ben Wishaw. Close to the Enemy features the actor Freddie Highmore who looks a bit like Wishaw. However far from being the hero of the story Highmore's character is almost the village idiot constantly getting in the way of the heroes of the story.
One of the things that make London Spy stand out was its very graphic portrayals of gay male sex. This was against a backdrop of British TV seeming to get ever more prudish in terms of on screen portrayals of sex and nudity.
A prime example of this new found prudishness was the series "Life in Squares" which was billed as being the sexiest programs ever to be broadcast despite featuring absolutely no sex or nudity whatsoever. One of the lead actresses in Life in Square was Phoebe Fox who plays really the female lead in Close to the Enemy. I can report that Close to the Enemy not only features heterosexual sex scenes but also - I would say - rather pointedly, female nipples
Set just after the Second World War the plot centres around efforts to get a brilliant German jet engineer to work by Britain. The British think this brilliant engineer will help them break the sound barrier allowing them to fly faster than everybody else. That is my character in the piece.
As part of their efforts to recruit this engineer the British first try intimidating him. They claim that if he doesn't help them they'll falsely accuse him of carrying out Nazi war crimes and ship him off to the Nuremberg Trials. This is a reference to the whole thing with my Grandmother.
For many years Britain justified her mis-treatment as part of a medical experiment into Dementia. That of course would represent a crime against humanity in violation of the Nuremberg codes on medical ethics thus making it an issue of international law. However if Britain had said that they were simply trying to steal her money and house that would be a simple matter of domestic law.
The fact that Britain was choosing the explanation that made it sound way more guilty does make you really start to question the quality of the British government's legal advisers.
Eventually they realise that dragging this devilishly handsome genius from his home and family in order to threaten isn't encouraging him to help. So instead they change direction and try being nice to him.
Obviously being set at the end of the Second World War the topic of how the war started in the first place does come. Particularly Nazi Germany's 1938 invasion of Czechoslovakia which has such relevance to the current war on Syria.
Also Angela Basset does turn up as an obviously black singer who has been banished from America over claims her support for the civil rights movement makes her a Communist. That obviously touches on the 2016 Oscars diversity row. Particularly the "Trumbo" about the screenwriter Dalton Trumbo who was blacklisted by Hollywood for similar reasons.
I think what really sums up the show is that in 1985 British author Jeanette Winterson published the book; "Oranges Are Not the Only Fruit." This is intended to serve as a metaphor for Winterson coming to terms with her homosexuality. It is sort of an icon of lesbian literature.
Close to the Enemy is set during a period where food rationing was still very much in effect in Britain. As a result certainly in the opening episodes Oranges are the only fruit you will see on screen. That strikes me as a little in joke at the expense of the great rivalry between gay men an lesbians.
So yeah. I think Britain may have slipped into Panto season a little early this year.
17:10 on 19/12/16 (UK date).
Operation Featherweight: Month 29, Week 5, Day 1.
As we approached Christmas of 2010 I was still a relatively young man filled with hope. I'd barely even heard of this Rihanna woman.
As we approach the Christmas of 2016 I am old and exhausted. So I won't be re-arguing the entire war against Syria.
However certainly since 2012 the east of Syrian city of Aleppo has been under the occupation of the Army of Conquest/Jaish al-Fatah (JAF). The Syrian government has been fighting to liberate the city from this Al Qaeda-led, Turkish-backed coalition of radical Sunni-Islamist terror groups.
What has hampered that progress is that every time the Army of Conquest has come under attack they have screamed; "Humanitarian Catastrophe" and demanded that the Syrians be stopped from fighting them.
Last Monday (12/12/16) the Syrians finally liberated Aleppo City from the Army of Conquest. Since then the Army of Conquest has been demanding that it be allowed to kidnap some 60,000 of Aleppo's civilians and force them to travel to the area in and around Idlib City- some 60km (35 miles) south-west of Aleppo City.
The plan is clearly that these civilians can be used as human shields so when the Syrians finally come to liberate Idlib the Army of Conquest can once again scream; "Humanitarian Catastrophe."
This type of forcible transfer of civilians - particularly to an area of danger - is strictly forbidden under the laws of war. If the civilian hostages are being selected because of their membership of an ethnic/religious group - i.e Sunni-Muslims - not only does this represent a war crime it represents a crime against humanity. Specifically ethnic cleansing.
However the Syrians and their Russian backers are prepared to entertain this idea provided that the Army of Conquest releases some of the civilian hostages it already holds in and around Idlib. Specifically in the villages of Foua and Kefraya. If everything goes to plan this will see the overall number of civilian hostages the Army of Conquest hold reduced. So while it might not be legal it might be the best outcome available.
The problem has arisen in the form of France.
They have called numerous United Nations Security Council (UNSC) sessions demanding that UN Observers be sent to monitor this transfer of hostages between Aleppo and Idlib. France have also attempted to link the imposition of observers to the provision of aid to civilians in Aleppo. Using aid as a form of coercion in this way seems dangerously close to actively trying to support the Army of Conquest in their efforts.
The first problem with France's call for UN observers is that everything being proposed in Aleppo right now is completely illegal. If UN observers go in they will have no option other than to report on the Army of Conquest's illegal activity and call for action to put a stop to it. I think it is quite clear that is not the outcome France intends from its call.
If the UN observers don't report on the illegal activity of the Army of Conquest and demand that it be halted then the already weakened credibility of the UN as an impartial body will suffer severe damage. That will make it much harder for the UN to have any effect in any other conflict or crisis zone anywhere in the World. Just at the moment Gambia and South Sudan seem to be heating up.
The second problem with France's call is the sheer about of time it has taken up and disruption it has caused.
France initially called for a closed UNSC on Thursday (15/12/16). That meeting took place on Friday (16/12/16). On Saturday (17/12/16) France introduced a formal draft of a resolution. That was discussed at a meeting yesterday (18/12/16). There France agreed to a Russian draft of a resolution that will be should be vetoed at a meeting today (19/12/16).
Of course amid all this noise and drama it has been impossible for people to just quietly get on with the transfers between Aleppo and Idlib.
11:55 on 19/12/16 (UK date)
Edited at around 18:05 on 19/12/16 (UK Date) to add;
Following the liberation of Aleppo City last Monday (12/12/16) Turkey has been trying bus civilians to the areas around Idlib. The intention being to use those civilians as human shields in what will likely be the Army of Conquest's last stand in Syria.
While France has been getting on everyone's nerves at the UN Russia has been trying to broker an agreement between Turkey and Syria to make the liberation as bloodless a possible.
The first meeting in this process was originally scheduled to take place in Astana, Kazakhstan on December 27th (27/12/16). The thinking being that with western nations - particularly France and the US - distracted by Christmas (25/12/16) the diplomatic sniping that has plagued this last week could be kept to a minimum.
However due to the disruption caused by France's antics that meeting was today moved forward to tomorrow (20/12/16) in Moscow, Russia.
This evening Turkish President/Prime Minister/Emperor Recep Tayyip Erdogan has made the opening play of this negotiation. And it's a big one.
The Russian Ambassador to Turkey - Andrey Karlov - has been assassinated at a public event in Ankara. Turkey is being almost boastful of the fact that the assassin is a Turkish policeman. As such he is indisputably an agent of the Turkish state.
The way that Erdogan has purged the Turkish police under the guise of successive; "Parallel State/FETO" investigations to ensure their absolute loyalty to him personally has been a major issue within Turkish politics recently.
Under the terms of the 1961 Vienna Convention on Diplomatic Relations the host nation is obligated to ensure the safety of foreign diplomats such as Ambassadors. If they fail to fulfil that obligation the nation whose diplomat's safety has been violated are entitled to view the failure as an act of war by the host country against them.
So in short Turkey has just declared war on Russia.
Erdogan's calculation is clearly that if Russia won't go to war over the assassination of one of its diplomats then it won't go to war over Syria. Thus giving Erdogan an advantage in negotiations over the Army of Conquest's return to Turkey from Syria.
18:25 on 19/12/16 (UK date).
As we approach the Christmas of 2016 I am old and exhausted. So I won't be re-arguing the entire war against Syria.
However certainly since 2012 the east of Syrian city of Aleppo has been under the occupation of the Army of Conquest/Jaish al-Fatah (JAF). The Syrian government has been fighting to liberate the city from this Al Qaeda-led, Turkish-backed coalition of radical Sunni-Islamist terror groups.
What has hampered that progress is that every time the Army of Conquest has come under attack they have screamed; "Humanitarian Catastrophe" and demanded that the Syrians be stopped from fighting them.
Last Monday (12/12/16) the Syrians finally liberated Aleppo City from the Army of Conquest. Since then the Army of Conquest has been demanding that it be allowed to kidnap some 60,000 of Aleppo's civilians and force them to travel to the area in and around Idlib City- some 60km (35 miles) south-west of Aleppo City.
The plan is clearly that these civilians can be used as human shields so when the Syrians finally come to liberate Idlib the Army of Conquest can once again scream; "Humanitarian Catastrophe."
This type of forcible transfer of civilians - particularly to an area of danger - is strictly forbidden under the laws of war. If the civilian hostages are being selected because of their membership of an ethnic/religious group - i.e Sunni-Muslims - not only does this represent a war crime it represents a crime against humanity. Specifically ethnic cleansing.
However the Syrians and their Russian backers are prepared to entertain this idea provided that the Army of Conquest releases some of the civilian hostages it already holds in and around Idlib. Specifically in the villages of Foua and Kefraya. If everything goes to plan this will see the overall number of civilian hostages the Army of Conquest hold reduced. So while it might not be legal it might be the best outcome available.
The problem has arisen in the form of France.
They have called numerous United Nations Security Council (UNSC) sessions demanding that UN Observers be sent to monitor this transfer of hostages between Aleppo and Idlib. France have also attempted to link the imposition of observers to the provision of aid to civilians in Aleppo. Using aid as a form of coercion in this way seems dangerously close to actively trying to support the Army of Conquest in their efforts.
The first problem with France's call for UN observers is that everything being proposed in Aleppo right now is completely illegal. If UN observers go in they will have no option other than to report on the Army of Conquest's illegal activity and call for action to put a stop to it. I think it is quite clear that is not the outcome France intends from its call.
If the UN observers don't report on the illegal activity of the Army of Conquest and demand that it be halted then the already weakened credibility of the UN as an impartial body will suffer severe damage. That will make it much harder for the UN to have any effect in any other conflict or crisis zone anywhere in the World. Just at the moment Gambia and South Sudan seem to be heating up.
The second problem with France's call is the sheer about of time it has taken up and disruption it has caused.
France initially called for a closed UNSC on Thursday (15/12/16). That meeting took place on Friday (16/12/16). On Saturday (17/12/16) France introduced a formal draft of a resolution. That was discussed at a meeting yesterday (18/12/16). There France agreed to a Russian draft of a resolution that will be should be vetoed at a meeting today (19/12/16).
Of course amid all this noise and drama it has been impossible for people to just quietly get on with the transfers between Aleppo and Idlib.
11:55 on 19/12/16 (UK date)
Edited at around 18:05 on 19/12/16 (UK Date) to add;
Following the liberation of Aleppo City last Monday (12/12/16) Turkey has been trying bus civilians to the areas around Idlib. The intention being to use those civilians as human shields in what will likely be the Army of Conquest's last stand in Syria.
While France has been getting on everyone's nerves at the UN Russia has been trying to broker an agreement between Turkey and Syria to make the liberation as bloodless a possible.
The first meeting in this process was originally scheduled to take place in Astana, Kazakhstan on December 27th (27/12/16). The thinking being that with western nations - particularly France and the US - distracted by Christmas (25/12/16) the diplomatic sniping that has plagued this last week could be kept to a minimum.
However due to the disruption caused by France's antics that meeting was today moved forward to tomorrow (20/12/16) in Moscow, Russia.
This evening Turkish President/Prime Minister/Emperor Recep Tayyip Erdogan has made the opening play of this negotiation. And it's a big one.
The Russian Ambassador to Turkey - Andrey Karlov - has been assassinated at a public event in Ankara. Turkey is being almost boastful of the fact that the assassin is a Turkish policeman. As such he is indisputably an agent of the Turkish state.
The way that Erdogan has purged the Turkish police under the guise of successive; "Parallel State/FETO" investigations to ensure their absolute loyalty to him personally has been a major issue within Turkish politics recently.
Under the terms of the 1961 Vienna Convention on Diplomatic Relations the host nation is obligated to ensure the safety of foreign diplomats such as Ambassadors. If they fail to fulfil that obligation the nation whose diplomat's safety has been violated are entitled to view the failure as an act of war by the host country against them.
So in short Turkey has just declared war on Russia.
Erdogan's calculation is clearly that if Russia won't go to war over the assassination of one of its diplomats then it won't go to war over Syria. Thus giving Erdogan an advantage in negotiations over the Army of Conquest's return to Turkey from Syria.
18:25 on 19/12/16 (UK date).
Friday, 16 December 2016
Operation Featherweight: Month 29, Week 4, Day 5.
On Monday (12/12/16) the Syrian government backed by Russia effectively liberated the northern Syrian city of Aleppo from the Army of Conquest/Jaish al-Fatah (JAF). The Army of Conquest being the Al Qaeda-led coalition of extreme Sunni-Islamist terror groups.
Roughly 1,000 JAF combatants remained holed up in a roughly 8kmsq (4.8 milesq) area in the very south of the city. With them they held hostage somewhere in the region of 3,000 civilians who they were using as human shields.
Rather than endangering those civilians on Tuesday (13/12/16) Syria and Russia made the remaining JAF combatants an offer. Not only would they be free to leave the city Syria and Russia would actually provide transport for them to leave the city. All the JAF had to do in return was set their captives free.
On Wednesday (14/12/16) the JAF rejected this offer. So Syria and Russia made them an improved offer. Transport would be provided for the JAF to leave the city. However in return for being allowed to keep their Aleppo hostages the JAF would have to release a similar number of civilian hostages they are holding in two villages - Foua and Kefraya - that remain under their occupation.
Obviously once the JAF had left the 8kmsq area of Aleppo City it would then be possible to evacuate wounded civilians who had been trapped there to other parts of Aleppo City for medical treatment. However although this would occur at the same time this is technically a co-benefit that is separate from the deal to evacuate JAF combatants from the city.
From Aleppo City the JAF combatants and their hostages would be transported to a roughly 600kmsq (360milesq) area under JAF control centred around the city of Idlib - some 60km (35 miles) south-west of Aleppo City.
To the north this area is bordered by what is know as; "The Afrin Canton" which is controlled by the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF/QSD). To the east and south it is bordered by areas controlled by the Syrian government. To the west it is bordered by Turkey. For a very obvious reason this area has been designated; "The Sudetenland."
Yesterday (15/12/16) the JAF evacuated their roughly 3,000 hostages from Aleppo City. However the majority of their combatants remained in Aleppo City. Those combatants are now trying to put pressure on Syria and Russia to allow them to remove a very large proportion of the city's civilian population - the figure of 60,000 has been floated - and transfer them to the Sudetenland to act as human shields above the 3,000 agreed hostages.
This sort of forcible transfer by an armed group of a section of the civilian population is of course massively illegal under international law.
It certainly constitutes as war crime in contravention of Article 49 of Fourth Geneva Convention (1949). If those being transferred are predominately or exclusively members of a specific ethnic or religious group - i.e Sunni-Muslims - then it would constitute ethnic cleansing. A Crime Against Humanity in contravention of Article 7 of the 1998 Rome Statute.
Obviously nobody may participate in nor assist in the commission either a war crime or a crime against humanity. This is particularly true of international aid agencies such at the International Committee of the Red Cross/Crescent (ICRC) and the bodies of the United Nations (UN) such as the UN High Commission on Refugees (UNHCR) or the UN World Food Program (WFP).
In fact if an international body - particularly the ICRC - is formally aware that such acts are taking place they are under an obligation to call for it to be stopped. You will notice that in media interviews yesterday the UN's Under-Secretary General for Humanitarian Affairs Stephen O'Brien in particular went to pains to make clear that the UN is not party to events in Aleppo.
The reason why the JAF want to transfer Aleppo City's civilians to the Sudetenland is simple. Turkey's President/Prime Minister/Emperor Recep Tayyip Erdogan has declared that he wants to provide support for what he describes as civilians "fleeing" Aleppo City.
In order to provide this support Erdogan wants to cross the border into Syria to establish vast camps that will likely be 'protected' by the Turkish military.
Having established a Turkish enclave within Syrian territory Erdogan will then likely set about changing the demographics of the enclave to make it more Turkish. This is what he is already doing in the Syrian town of Jarablus where Turkish troops are forcing local schools to teach only in the Turkish language.
Erdogan's plan presents another major problem for the international community. If international bodies such as the ICRC or the bodies of the UN were to support civilians in this Turkish enclave they would recognise Turkey as an Occupying Power for the purposes of international law.
Under the UN Charter - a cornerstone of international law - Turkey has now excuse nor authority to occupy Syria. Therefore if Turkey were formally recognised as an occupying power the UN Security Council (UNSC) would have no option other than to authorise military force under Chapter 7 to bring Turkey's illegal occupation to an end.
This is all obviously creating an extremely tense political atmosphere. So tense in fact that having something of a loud voice anything I say on the subject at this point is likely to cause more harm than good.
In this extremely tense atmosphere France has decided to call a closed session of the UNSC tonight. In order to forces everybody to firmly declare where they stand on the issue.
Fortunately things seem to be sorting themselves out.
Today (16/12/16) the Syrian government has said that the JAF's remaining combatants must leave Aleppo City before any more civilians are transferred out. The JAF have refused this so the Syrians have suspended the transfer process.
In retaliation the JAF have started shelling civilians in the villages of Foua and Kefraya. There are obviously concerns that JAF fighters in Aleppo City will join in with this violence.
12:15 on 16/12/16 (UK date).
Roughly 1,000 JAF combatants remained holed up in a roughly 8kmsq (4.8 milesq) area in the very south of the city. With them they held hostage somewhere in the region of 3,000 civilians who they were using as human shields.
Rather than endangering those civilians on Tuesday (13/12/16) Syria and Russia made the remaining JAF combatants an offer. Not only would they be free to leave the city Syria and Russia would actually provide transport for them to leave the city. All the JAF had to do in return was set their captives free.
On Wednesday (14/12/16) the JAF rejected this offer. So Syria and Russia made them an improved offer. Transport would be provided for the JAF to leave the city. However in return for being allowed to keep their Aleppo hostages the JAF would have to release a similar number of civilian hostages they are holding in two villages - Foua and Kefraya - that remain under their occupation.
Obviously once the JAF had left the 8kmsq area of Aleppo City it would then be possible to evacuate wounded civilians who had been trapped there to other parts of Aleppo City for medical treatment. However although this would occur at the same time this is technically a co-benefit that is separate from the deal to evacuate JAF combatants from the city.
From Aleppo City the JAF combatants and their hostages would be transported to a roughly 600kmsq (360milesq) area under JAF control centred around the city of Idlib - some 60km (35 miles) south-west of Aleppo City.
To the north this area is bordered by what is know as; "The Afrin Canton" which is controlled by the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF/QSD). To the east and south it is bordered by areas controlled by the Syrian government. To the west it is bordered by Turkey. For a very obvious reason this area has been designated; "The Sudetenland."
Yesterday (15/12/16) the JAF evacuated their roughly 3,000 hostages from Aleppo City. However the majority of their combatants remained in Aleppo City. Those combatants are now trying to put pressure on Syria and Russia to allow them to remove a very large proportion of the city's civilian population - the figure of 60,000 has been floated - and transfer them to the Sudetenland to act as human shields above the 3,000 agreed hostages.
This sort of forcible transfer by an armed group of a section of the civilian population is of course massively illegal under international law.
It certainly constitutes as war crime in contravention of Article 49 of Fourth Geneva Convention (1949). If those being transferred are predominately or exclusively members of a specific ethnic or religious group - i.e Sunni-Muslims - then it would constitute ethnic cleansing. A Crime Against Humanity in contravention of Article 7 of the 1998 Rome Statute.
Obviously nobody may participate in nor assist in the commission either a war crime or a crime against humanity. This is particularly true of international aid agencies such at the International Committee of the Red Cross/Crescent (ICRC) and the bodies of the United Nations (UN) such as the UN High Commission on Refugees (UNHCR) or the UN World Food Program (WFP).
In fact if an international body - particularly the ICRC - is formally aware that such acts are taking place they are under an obligation to call for it to be stopped. You will notice that in media interviews yesterday the UN's Under-Secretary General for Humanitarian Affairs Stephen O'Brien in particular went to pains to make clear that the UN is not party to events in Aleppo.
The reason why the JAF want to transfer Aleppo City's civilians to the Sudetenland is simple. Turkey's President/Prime Minister/Emperor Recep Tayyip Erdogan has declared that he wants to provide support for what he describes as civilians "fleeing" Aleppo City.
In order to provide this support Erdogan wants to cross the border into Syria to establish vast camps that will likely be 'protected' by the Turkish military.
Having established a Turkish enclave within Syrian territory Erdogan will then likely set about changing the demographics of the enclave to make it more Turkish. This is what he is already doing in the Syrian town of Jarablus where Turkish troops are forcing local schools to teach only in the Turkish language.
Erdogan's plan presents another major problem for the international community. If international bodies such as the ICRC or the bodies of the UN were to support civilians in this Turkish enclave they would recognise Turkey as an Occupying Power for the purposes of international law.
Under the UN Charter - a cornerstone of international law - Turkey has now excuse nor authority to occupy Syria. Therefore if Turkey were formally recognised as an occupying power the UN Security Council (UNSC) would have no option other than to authorise military force under Chapter 7 to bring Turkey's illegal occupation to an end.
This is all obviously creating an extremely tense political atmosphere. So tense in fact that having something of a loud voice anything I say on the subject at this point is likely to cause more harm than good.
In this extremely tense atmosphere France has decided to call a closed session of the UNSC tonight. In order to forces everybody to firmly declare where they stand on the issue.
Fortunately things seem to be sorting themselves out.
Today (16/12/16) the Syrian government has said that the JAF's remaining combatants must leave Aleppo City before any more civilians are transferred out. The JAF have refused this so the Syrians have suspended the transfer process.
In retaliation the JAF have started shelling civilians in the villages of Foua and Kefraya. There are obviously concerns that JAF fighters in Aleppo City will join in with this violence.
12:15 on 16/12/16 (UK date).
Wednesday, 14 December 2016
Operation Featherweight: Month 29, Week 4, Day 3.
In my post of December 8th (8/12/16) I stated that between November 24th (24/11/16) and December 4th (4/12/16) the Iraqi Security Forces (ISF) had not advanced in their efforts to liberate the northern Iraqi city of Mosul from the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL).
On December 4th (4/12/16) the ISF launched a renewed offensive to advance into neighbourhoods in south-eastern Mosul. As a result they have gone from having control over 21 neighbourhoods to either fighting over or controlling 27 neighbourhoods.
Further underlining how this Mosul operation has been rushed into due to the November 8th (8/11/16) US Presidential election these advances have raised some complex questions to which answers now need to be found. Predominately these relate to the screening of civilians leaving Mosul to make sure they are not ISIL fighters and then what to do with any ISIL fighters that have been captured.
Legally all the Iraqis - or anyone else in a similar situation - need to do is put these captives before a military tribunal that is properly regulated by the national government. If that tribunal is satisfied that the captives are members of an illegal armed group they can simply be executed. Any armed group such as ISIL that by design engages in war crimes and crimes against humanity such as genocide is by definition an illegal armed group.
If the international community does not have to stomach for what will be a very large number of executions these captives can be transferred to the International Criminal Court (ICC). As has been done in places such as Nuremberg follow the Second World War, Cambodia and following the Balkan wars of the 1990's the ICC can then hold mass trials of all these captives on charges of genocide and other crimes against humanity. However the ICC cannot impose the death penalty as punishment.
The problem with this approach is that everyone is simply going to blame the person above them in the chain-of-command. At the top of that chain-of-command you are going to get names like Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama and current US Ambassador to the UN Samantha Power. Getting Ambassador Power in particular not to veto her own prosecution is going to be quite the challenge.
I personally have absolutely no moral qualms with senior ISIL figures and particularly the foreign fighters being executed via military tribunal. After all if you've travelled all the way from somewhere like France or the UK to Iraq to commit crimes against humanity you've already made some pretty big choices about your life.
The problem though is the Iraqi and Syrian ISIL fighters. Particularly at the low level many of these people have been swept up into ISIL with very little choice in the matter. ISIL's policy of; "Join Us Or Die" has been a particularly effective recruiting tool.
Just on a moral level I would find it very uncomfortable for these low-level, local hires to be executed. I think quite reasonably it will certainly produce a backlash from the friends and relatives of the executed. That sort of backlash creates a very fertile breeding ground for future terrorism.
That said I don't think that even low-level ISIL members should be able to completely escape punishment. However rather than execution I'm thinking short, one to two year, prison sentences.
That brings us into the complex issues of how to tackle prison radicalisation. Although I think it's been massively overstated the cramped and otherwise poor conditions as Camp Bucca certainly played some role in turning Iraqis first to Al Qaeda and then ISIL.
So as far as I'm concerned the operation to liberate Mosul remains the big story of the war at the moment.
Unfortunately the west's frankly unhealthy obsession with the Syrian city of Aleppo has continued. As a result this is the story that has been the most discussed of late. Sadly the loudest voices in that discussion have been the least well informed and much of what they've said has simply been wrong.
Certainly since 2012 Aleppo City has been divided into three sections;
The west of the city like the majority of Syria itself has remained loyal to the Syrian government and this area has remained under the control of that government.
In the north a predominately but not exclusively Kurdish enclave of the city has remained under the control and protection of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF).
The east of the city has fallen under the occupation of the Army of Conquest/Jaish al-Fatah (JAF). This is a coalition of Sunni-Islamist terror groups that is headed by Al Qaeda's Syrian affiliate the Support Front/Jabhat al-Nusra (ANF).
The Army of Conquest is directly allied to ISIL with the two groups working together on the spring/summer 2015 Northwestern offensive. This saw the Army of Conquest seize the town of Jisr al-Shughur and ISIL seize the city of Palmyra.
In June the Syrian government backed by Russia began an operation to liberate the east of Aleppo City from the Army of Conquest. The first stage of this was securing control of the Castello Road ring-road which encircles the city.
Although there have been operations since then on November 15th (15/11/16) the Syrian government launched a big push deep into east Aleppo City. On November 26th (26/11/12) this forced the Army of Conquest into a massive collapse. By November 28th (28/11/16) the Army of Conquest had lost control 11 neighbourhoods in the east of the city.
This limited the Army of Conquest to just two neighbourhoods west of the Aleppo Citadel in almost the centre of the east along and six neighbourhoods south of the Citadel arcing around to the Hamdaniya neighbourhood which is technically in the south-west of the city.
By December 7th (7/12/16) the Syrian government had succeeded in liberating the neighbourhoods west of the Citadel and two of the neighbourhoods to the south-west of the city up to the Sukkari neighbourhood to the south.
In response to the Army of Conquest losing ground the international community did what it always does when areas are being liberated from the Army of Conquest. It screamed about a looming humanitarian disaster and demanded that the Syrians protect the Army of Conquest.
This latest attempt to protect the Army of Conquest at any cost culminated in meeting between primarily the US Secretary of State John Kerry and his Russian counterpart Sergey Lavrov in Vienna, Austria on Saturday (10/12/16). As we've come to expect in preparation for the meeting nations that support the Army of Conquest unleashed a barrage of pranks and stunts intended to put pressure on Russia.
So Friday (9/12/16) the CIA claimed that Russia had used computer hacking to help Donald Trump win the election. With those comments being made off-the-record the CIA obviously didn't have to produce any evidence to back up that claim.
On Saturday (10/12/16) a televised speech by the leader of the UK's opposition Labour Party was interrupted by rather famous protester Peter Tatchell demanding that Britain does more to protect the Army of Conquest.
However I don't think even the people playing these pranks intended for them to be taken seriously.
For example Russia knows better than anybody that it did not use computer hacking to help Donald Trump win the election. So America making a claim that everybody knows to be utterly ridiculous makes it almost impossible take seriously the claims of a humanitarian disasters in Aleppo City that the US was making at the same time.
Although I hesitate to describe him as a professional protester Peter Tatchell has certainly been heavily involved in political protest at a very high level for the best part of thirty years. As a result a lot of people in the business know who he is and he certainly knows how to play the game.
In making his protest in support of the Army of Conquest Peter Tatchell chose to wear a black shirt.
Turkish President/Prime Minister/Emperor Recep Tayyip Erdogan's attempts to use both ISIL and the Army of Conquest to, well, conquer Syria as part of the new Ottoman Empire he's desperate to build is very much based on Nazi Germany's invasion of Czechoslovakia in 1938.
There Adolf Hitler backed local forces - the Sudeten German Party (SdP) - to carry out terror attacks against local civilians. Particularly in the city of Ostrava. Hitler then demanded the atrocities he was carrying out be used as an excuse to invade Czechoslovakia to set up safe-havens for these 'oppressed civilians.'
In his rise to power in Germany Hitler was supported by a militia known as the Storm Detachment/Sturmabteilung (SD). Their uniform featured a brown shirt. As Nazism was effectively franchised across Europe SD-like groups were formed such as the Blackshirts in Britain and the Blueshirts in the Irish Republic.
Obviously people don't really comment if you wear a blue shirt these days. So the wearing of a black shirt or simply the term; "Blackshirt" has become a sort of shorthand for; "Nazi."
For those who are familiar with European history the spectacle of a Nazi demanding that the Army of Conquest be given safe-havens in Aleppo City makes a strong statement. You would hope it is not one that encourages people to support the Army of Conquest.
The problem has arisen in the US where Hillary Clinton supporters still refuse to acknowledge that she lost the election.
So rather than allowing it to be funny on Friday and then forgotten by Monday they've leaped on the CIA's little prank in an effort to keep the story going. Hillary Clinton is even demanding that Electoral College electors be briefed on the issue in an effort to stage a coup that would she her appointed President.
Thus further underlining the fact that Hillary Clinton is totally unfit to be President of a golf club let alone a country.
Fortunately Syria and Russia have been treating international demands that parts of Aleppo City be left under Army of Conquest occupation with the respect they deserve. On Monday (12/12/16) the Army of Conquest lost control of the neighbours south of the Citadel including the Sukkari neighbourhood.
As such on Monday (12/12/16) night Aleppo City was declared liberated from the Army of Conquest.
In talking about the operation to liberate Mosul I compared this type of urban warfare to a hostage rescue operation that the police might undertake. As the Army of Conquest's occupation has been reduced to a last few hold-outs this comparison has become plain to see.
Following Monday's (12/12/16) liberation there are - at likely an inflated estimate - only around 1,000 Army of Conquest members left in Aleppo City. They are barricaded in a handful of buildings using around 3,000 civilian hostages as human shields.
As they're equipped with battlefield weapons like heavy machine guns and the homemade; "Hell Cannon" artillery pieces they can control the streets around those buildings across a maximum of around 8 kmsq (4.8 milesq).
From a military perspective what you would do is conduct airstrikes against those buildings killing the remaining Army of Conquest members and freeing the city.
A legitimate military force would not engage in the Army of Conquest's tactic of taking civilians hostage. It is after all a clear war crime and possibly a crime against humanity. Instead a legitimate military force would surrender.
However the Army of Conquest have decided to throw everything they've got into a desperate last attempt to continue their occupation of Aleppo City.
As with most military forces the Army of Conquest's combatants can be divided into the three main groups. Obviously there are the fighters. Then there are the logistical support groups. In this case the White Helmets group and those providing medical services.
Finally you have the intelligence/propaganda group. Within the Army of Conquest this is a particularly large group. They were created by the US amongst others providing millions of dollars of training and broadcasting equipment at the behest of then Secretary of State Hillary Clinton.
This group of Army of Conquest combatants main role is to produce and distribute what is known in the trade as; "Grey Propaganda." It's purpose is to spread lies and falsify evidence of atrocities conducted by your enemy. The intention is to sway public opinion against your enemy and ideally turn it into support for your cause.
Obviously all groups of Army of Conquest combatants cooperate with each other in the production of this propaganda.
So for example the fighters would massacre civilians protesters demanding to be set free. They would then pass the corpses to the White Helmets to bury under rubble so they can film footage of them 'recovering' the victims of an 'airstike.' The propaganda group then distribute those videos.
Back on November 24th (24/11/12) the White Helmets were forced to apologise for faking footage of a man being 'rescued' from the rubble as part of the Mannequin Challenge fad. They've faked so many of these rescue videos that in their minds they couldn't see a problem with faking another one.
Since Monday's (12/12/16) effective liberation of Aleppo City the Army of Conquest's propagandists have engaged in a frantic burst of activity. They've been posting tearful "Goodbye" videos intended to tug at the heartstrings all over the Internet along with wild claim after wild claim of civilians being massacred.
At around 18:05 on 14/12/16 (UK date) I'll have to pick this up after dinner.
Edited at around 19:50 on 14/12/16 (UK date) to add;
With the Army of Conquest desperately trying to cling on to the last sliver of Aleppo City it occupied the the international community did what it always does when areas are being liberated from the Army of Conquest.
It's screamed about a looming humanitarian disaster and demanded that the Syrians protect the Army of Conquest.
So yesterday (13/12/16) the UK House of Commons held an emergency debate on Aleppo City. This was scene to some very wild an incoherent statements.
For example there was lots of talk about making aid drops. Nobody seemed even remotely bothered by the fact that even with the latest high-tech GPS guided parachutes you can't make aid drops into a less then 8kmsq area. Even if you were inclined to commit a crime against humanity providing material support to the Army of Conquest.
The debate was called by Andrew Mitchell. He was very keen that evidence is collected and prosecutions are launched against those engaging in war crimes and crimes against humanity in Syria. As Andrew Mitchell can legally be described as the co-conspirator of now defunct MP Jo Cox that struck me as a particularly unwise position for him to be taking.
There was also frequent references made to the August 21st 2013 Sarin gas attack in the East Ghouta suburb of Damascus - Obama's so-called red line. Due to the current political climate within Turkey that is an extremely sensitive issue. To the point that I'm not totally happy even confirming that the issue exists. So let's just say that when the Army of Conquest wildly inflated the death toll they probably weren't thinking they'd be having it read back to them in Court.
The main role in the performance though went to George Osborne - the UK's former Chief Finance Minister. He condemned all those MP's who voted to stop him sending British forces to act as ISIL's air force back in 2013.
As finance minister George Osborne's big idea was that the UK must completely eliminate its national debt. At the recent autumn statement Osborne's replacement announced plans to grow the UK national debt. Although we're being subtle and trying to brush it of as the Brexit effect it's quite clear that George Osborne has been fired by his own party and all of his crazy plans have been rejected.
Later France called an emergency session at the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) to call for action to allow the Army of Conquest's occupation of Aleppo City to continue.
At the same time that France was calling internationally for the Army of Conquest to be protected domestically it's national security council was extending France's state of emergency for the fifth time. That is to protect the French public from attacks by the terrorists that France is demanding are protected in Aleppo City.
It was one of those moments that had you quietly rubbing your temples and reaching for the aspirin.
Having grown tired of protecting nations like France and the UK from their own stupidity in response to this diplomatic pressure Russia announced a unilateral ceasefire starting at 03:00 (GMT) today.
The purpose of this ceasefire was to allow the combatants of the Army of Conquest to leave - with their weapons - to the nearby city of Idlib. The city of Idlib sits all of 20km (12 miles) from Syria's border with Turkey. So in making this offer Russia knew full well that Turkey will continue to support the Army of Conquest in Idlib and those terrorists will continue to fight against the Syrian people.
All the Army of Conquest had to do to take Russia up on this extremely generous offer is agree to let their civilian hostages go.
The problem is that the Army of Conquest seem to have taken things like the UK debate and the UNSC session at face value. So as you can see from today's renewed fighting they have rejected the Russian offer thinking that if they can cling onto their hostages for just a little while longer the international community will soon leap to their aid with airdrops and airstrikes.
This ceasefire deal really serves to highlight just how utterly detached from reality much of the media coverage and political discussion regarding the Syria conflict has become.
I think it's fair to say that it's being widely reported that the purpose of the ceasefire was to allow civilians to be evacuated from Aleppo City. In fact it is the complete and exact opposite of that.
The purpose of the ceasefire is to allow the Army of Conquest to leave Aleppo City setting the civilian population free. Those newly freed civilians will then be able to remain in their homes or move about the rest of Syria as they choose.
There is also a piece of video footage that really highlights how skewed particularly western media coverage has become.
It shows civilians clutching their meagre belongings walking along an Aleppo street in the pouring rain. It seems to have been picked up by every TV news network and stills from it have been used across newspapers and the Internet.
This footage was shot by a Syrian news channel embedded with the Syrian army.
What has happened is that the Syrian army has broken through one of the Army of Conquest's lines of defence freeing a few streets. Having rescued those civilians the Syrian army is then escorting them out of terrorist occupied territory to other areas under government control where they can receive emergency aid and crucially be safe away from the battle lines.
However that footage is being portrayed to give the entirely false impression that the civilians are fleeing with the terrorists away from the Syrian army.
20:50 on 14/12/16 (UK date).
On December 4th (4/12/16) the ISF launched a renewed offensive to advance into neighbourhoods in south-eastern Mosul. As a result they have gone from having control over 21 neighbourhoods to either fighting over or controlling 27 neighbourhoods.
Further underlining how this Mosul operation has been rushed into due to the November 8th (8/11/16) US Presidential election these advances have raised some complex questions to which answers now need to be found. Predominately these relate to the screening of civilians leaving Mosul to make sure they are not ISIL fighters and then what to do with any ISIL fighters that have been captured.
Legally all the Iraqis - or anyone else in a similar situation - need to do is put these captives before a military tribunal that is properly regulated by the national government. If that tribunal is satisfied that the captives are members of an illegal armed group they can simply be executed. Any armed group such as ISIL that by design engages in war crimes and crimes against humanity such as genocide is by definition an illegal armed group.
If the international community does not have to stomach for what will be a very large number of executions these captives can be transferred to the International Criminal Court (ICC). As has been done in places such as Nuremberg follow the Second World War, Cambodia and following the Balkan wars of the 1990's the ICC can then hold mass trials of all these captives on charges of genocide and other crimes against humanity. However the ICC cannot impose the death penalty as punishment.
The problem with this approach is that everyone is simply going to blame the person above them in the chain-of-command. At the top of that chain-of-command you are going to get names like Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama and current US Ambassador to the UN Samantha Power. Getting Ambassador Power in particular not to veto her own prosecution is going to be quite the challenge.
I personally have absolutely no moral qualms with senior ISIL figures and particularly the foreign fighters being executed via military tribunal. After all if you've travelled all the way from somewhere like France or the UK to Iraq to commit crimes against humanity you've already made some pretty big choices about your life.
The problem though is the Iraqi and Syrian ISIL fighters. Particularly at the low level many of these people have been swept up into ISIL with very little choice in the matter. ISIL's policy of; "Join Us Or Die" has been a particularly effective recruiting tool.
Just on a moral level I would find it very uncomfortable for these low-level, local hires to be executed. I think quite reasonably it will certainly produce a backlash from the friends and relatives of the executed. That sort of backlash creates a very fertile breeding ground for future terrorism.
That said I don't think that even low-level ISIL members should be able to completely escape punishment. However rather than execution I'm thinking short, one to two year, prison sentences.
That brings us into the complex issues of how to tackle prison radicalisation. Although I think it's been massively overstated the cramped and otherwise poor conditions as Camp Bucca certainly played some role in turning Iraqis first to Al Qaeda and then ISIL.
So as far as I'm concerned the operation to liberate Mosul remains the big story of the war at the moment.
Unfortunately the west's frankly unhealthy obsession with the Syrian city of Aleppo has continued. As a result this is the story that has been the most discussed of late. Sadly the loudest voices in that discussion have been the least well informed and much of what they've said has simply been wrong.
Certainly since 2012 Aleppo City has been divided into three sections;
The west of the city like the majority of Syria itself has remained loyal to the Syrian government and this area has remained under the control of that government.
In the north a predominately but not exclusively Kurdish enclave of the city has remained under the control and protection of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF).
The east of the city has fallen under the occupation of the Army of Conquest/Jaish al-Fatah (JAF). This is a coalition of Sunni-Islamist terror groups that is headed by Al Qaeda's Syrian affiliate the Support Front/Jabhat al-Nusra (ANF).
The Army of Conquest is directly allied to ISIL with the two groups working together on the spring/summer 2015 Northwestern offensive. This saw the Army of Conquest seize the town of Jisr al-Shughur and ISIL seize the city of Palmyra.
In June the Syrian government backed by Russia began an operation to liberate the east of Aleppo City from the Army of Conquest. The first stage of this was securing control of the Castello Road ring-road which encircles the city.
Although there have been operations since then on November 15th (15/11/16) the Syrian government launched a big push deep into east Aleppo City. On November 26th (26/11/12) this forced the Army of Conquest into a massive collapse. By November 28th (28/11/16) the Army of Conquest had lost control 11 neighbourhoods in the east of the city.
This limited the Army of Conquest to just two neighbourhoods west of the Aleppo Citadel in almost the centre of the east along and six neighbourhoods south of the Citadel arcing around to the Hamdaniya neighbourhood which is technically in the south-west of the city.
By December 7th (7/12/16) the Syrian government had succeeded in liberating the neighbourhoods west of the Citadel and two of the neighbourhoods to the south-west of the city up to the Sukkari neighbourhood to the south.
In response to the Army of Conquest losing ground the international community did what it always does when areas are being liberated from the Army of Conquest. It screamed about a looming humanitarian disaster and demanded that the Syrians protect the Army of Conquest.
This latest attempt to protect the Army of Conquest at any cost culminated in meeting between primarily the US Secretary of State John Kerry and his Russian counterpart Sergey Lavrov in Vienna, Austria on Saturday (10/12/16). As we've come to expect in preparation for the meeting nations that support the Army of Conquest unleashed a barrage of pranks and stunts intended to put pressure on Russia.
So Friday (9/12/16) the CIA claimed that Russia had used computer hacking to help Donald Trump win the election. With those comments being made off-the-record the CIA obviously didn't have to produce any evidence to back up that claim.
On Saturday (10/12/16) a televised speech by the leader of the UK's opposition Labour Party was interrupted by rather famous protester Peter Tatchell demanding that Britain does more to protect the Army of Conquest.
However I don't think even the people playing these pranks intended for them to be taken seriously.
For example Russia knows better than anybody that it did not use computer hacking to help Donald Trump win the election. So America making a claim that everybody knows to be utterly ridiculous makes it almost impossible take seriously the claims of a humanitarian disasters in Aleppo City that the US was making at the same time.
Although I hesitate to describe him as a professional protester Peter Tatchell has certainly been heavily involved in political protest at a very high level for the best part of thirty years. As a result a lot of people in the business know who he is and he certainly knows how to play the game.
In making his protest in support of the Army of Conquest Peter Tatchell chose to wear a black shirt.
Turkish President/Prime Minister/Emperor Recep Tayyip Erdogan's attempts to use both ISIL and the Army of Conquest to, well, conquer Syria as part of the new Ottoman Empire he's desperate to build is very much based on Nazi Germany's invasion of Czechoslovakia in 1938.
There Adolf Hitler backed local forces - the Sudeten German Party (SdP) - to carry out terror attacks against local civilians. Particularly in the city of Ostrava. Hitler then demanded the atrocities he was carrying out be used as an excuse to invade Czechoslovakia to set up safe-havens for these 'oppressed civilians.'
In his rise to power in Germany Hitler was supported by a militia known as the Storm Detachment/Sturmabteilung (SD). Their uniform featured a brown shirt. As Nazism was effectively franchised across Europe SD-like groups were formed such as the Blackshirts in Britain and the Blueshirts in the Irish Republic.
Obviously people don't really comment if you wear a blue shirt these days. So the wearing of a black shirt or simply the term; "Blackshirt" has become a sort of shorthand for; "Nazi."
For those who are familiar with European history the spectacle of a Nazi demanding that the Army of Conquest be given safe-havens in Aleppo City makes a strong statement. You would hope it is not one that encourages people to support the Army of Conquest.
The problem has arisen in the US where Hillary Clinton supporters still refuse to acknowledge that she lost the election.
So rather than allowing it to be funny on Friday and then forgotten by Monday they've leaped on the CIA's little prank in an effort to keep the story going. Hillary Clinton is even demanding that Electoral College electors be briefed on the issue in an effort to stage a coup that would she her appointed President.
Thus further underlining the fact that Hillary Clinton is totally unfit to be President of a golf club let alone a country.
Fortunately Syria and Russia have been treating international demands that parts of Aleppo City be left under Army of Conquest occupation with the respect they deserve. On Monday (12/12/16) the Army of Conquest lost control of the neighbours south of the Citadel including the Sukkari neighbourhood.
As such on Monday (12/12/16) night Aleppo City was declared liberated from the Army of Conquest.
In talking about the operation to liberate Mosul I compared this type of urban warfare to a hostage rescue operation that the police might undertake. As the Army of Conquest's occupation has been reduced to a last few hold-outs this comparison has become plain to see.
Following Monday's (12/12/16) liberation there are - at likely an inflated estimate - only around 1,000 Army of Conquest members left in Aleppo City. They are barricaded in a handful of buildings using around 3,000 civilian hostages as human shields.
As they're equipped with battlefield weapons like heavy machine guns and the homemade; "Hell Cannon" artillery pieces they can control the streets around those buildings across a maximum of around 8 kmsq (4.8 milesq).
From a military perspective what you would do is conduct airstrikes against those buildings killing the remaining Army of Conquest members and freeing the city.
A legitimate military force would not engage in the Army of Conquest's tactic of taking civilians hostage. It is after all a clear war crime and possibly a crime against humanity. Instead a legitimate military force would surrender.
However the Army of Conquest have decided to throw everything they've got into a desperate last attempt to continue their occupation of Aleppo City.
As with most military forces the Army of Conquest's combatants can be divided into the three main groups. Obviously there are the fighters. Then there are the logistical support groups. In this case the White Helmets group and those providing medical services.
Finally you have the intelligence/propaganda group. Within the Army of Conquest this is a particularly large group. They were created by the US amongst others providing millions of dollars of training and broadcasting equipment at the behest of then Secretary of State Hillary Clinton.
This group of Army of Conquest combatants main role is to produce and distribute what is known in the trade as; "Grey Propaganda." It's purpose is to spread lies and falsify evidence of atrocities conducted by your enemy. The intention is to sway public opinion against your enemy and ideally turn it into support for your cause.
Obviously all groups of Army of Conquest combatants cooperate with each other in the production of this propaganda.
So for example the fighters would massacre civilians protesters demanding to be set free. They would then pass the corpses to the White Helmets to bury under rubble so they can film footage of them 'recovering' the victims of an 'airstike.' The propaganda group then distribute those videos.
Back on November 24th (24/11/12) the White Helmets were forced to apologise for faking footage of a man being 'rescued' from the rubble as part of the Mannequin Challenge fad. They've faked so many of these rescue videos that in their minds they couldn't see a problem with faking another one.
Since Monday's (12/12/16) effective liberation of Aleppo City the Army of Conquest's propagandists have engaged in a frantic burst of activity. They've been posting tearful "Goodbye" videos intended to tug at the heartstrings all over the Internet along with wild claim after wild claim of civilians being massacred.
At around 18:05 on 14/12/16 (UK date) I'll have to pick this up after dinner.
Edited at around 19:50 on 14/12/16 (UK date) to add;
With the Army of Conquest desperately trying to cling on to the last sliver of Aleppo City it occupied the the international community did what it always does when areas are being liberated from the Army of Conquest.
It's screamed about a looming humanitarian disaster and demanded that the Syrians protect the Army of Conquest.
So yesterday (13/12/16) the UK House of Commons held an emergency debate on Aleppo City. This was scene to some very wild an incoherent statements.
For example there was lots of talk about making aid drops. Nobody seemed even remotely bothered by the fact that even with the latest high-tech GPS guided parachutes you can't make aid drops into a less then 8kmsq area. Even if you were inclined to commit a crime against humanity providing material support to the Army of Conquest.
The debate was called by Andrew Mitchell. He was very keen that evidence is collected and prosecutions are launched against those engaging in war crimes and crimes against humanity in Syria. As Andrew Mitchell can legally be described as the co-conspirator of now defunct MP Jo Cox that struck me as a particularly unwise position for him to be taking.
There was also frequent references made to the August 21st 2013 Sarin gas attack in the East Ghouta suburb of Damascus - Obama's so-called red line. Due to the current political climate within Turkey that is an extremely sensitive issue. To the point that I'm not totally happy even confirming that the issue exists. So let's just say that when the Army of Conquest wildly inflated the death toll they probably weren't thinking they'd be having it read back to them in Court.
The main role in the performance though went to George Osborne - the UK's former Chief Finance Minister. He condemned all those MP's who voted to stop him sending British forces to act as ISIL's air force back in 2013.
As finance minister George Osborne's big idea was that the UK must completely eliminate its national debt. At the recent autumn statement Osborne's replacement announced plans to grow the UK national debt. Although we're being subtle and trying to brush it of as the Brexit effect it's quite clear that George Osborne has been fired by his own party and all of his crazy plans have been rejected.
Later France called an emergency session at the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) to call for action to allow the Army of Conquest's occupation of Aleppo City to continue.
At the same time that France was calling internationally for the Army of Conquest to be protected domestically it's national security council was extending France's state of emergency for the fifth time. That is to protect the French public from attacks by the terrorists that France is demanding are protected in Aleppo City.
It was one of those moments that had you quietly rubbing your temples and reaching for the aspirin.
Having grown tired of protecting nations like France and the UK from their own stupidity in response to this diplomatic pressure Russia announced a unilateral ceasefire starting at 03:00 (GMT) today.
The purpose of this ceasefire was to allow the combatants of the Army of Conquest to leave - with their weapons - to the nearby city of Idlib. The city of Idlib sits all of 20km (12 miles) from Syria's border with Turkey. So in making this offer Russia knew full well that Turkey will continue to support the Army of Conquest in Idlib and those terrorists will continue to fight against the Syrian people.
All the Army of Conquest had to do to take Russia up on this extremely generous offer is agree to let their civilian hostages go.
The problem is that the Army of Conquest seem to have taken things like the UK debate and the UNSC session at face value. So as you can see from today's renewed fighting they have rejected the Russian offer thinking that if they can cling onto their hostages for just a little while longer the international community will soon leap to their aid with airdrops and airstrikes.
This ceasefire deal really serves to highlight just how utterly detached from reality much of the media coverage and political discussion regarding the Syria conflict has become.
I think it's fair to say that it's being widely reported that the purpose of the ceasefire was to allow civilians to be evacuated from Aleppo City. In fact it is the complete and exact opposite of that.
The purpose of the ceasefire is to allow the Army of Conquest to leave Aleppo City setting the civilian population free. Those newly freed civilians will then be able to remain in their homes or move about the rest of Syria as they choose.
There is also a piece of video footage that really highlights how skewed particularly western media coverage has become.
It shows civilians clutching their meagre belongings walking along an Aleppo street in the pouring rain. It seems to have been picked up by every TV news network and stills from it have been used across newspapers and the Internet.
This footage was shot by a Syrian news channel embedded with the Syrian army.
What has happened is that the Syrian army has broken through one of the Army of Conquest's lines of defence freeing a few streets. Having rescued those civilians the Syrian army is then escorting them out of terrorist occupied territory to other areas under government control where they can receive emergency aid and crucially be safe away from the battle lines.
However that footage is being portrayed to give the entirely false impression that the civilians are fleeing with the terrorists away from the Syrian army.
20:50 on 14/12/16 (UK date).
Monday, 12 December 2016
Operation Featherweight: Month 29, Week 4, Day 1.
Last Thursday (8/12/16) I hit on what I thought was a very cunning plan.
I would write a single post covering developments on the three main areas in the fight against the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) and associated groups. Mosul in Iraq, Aleppo City in Syria and the area of northern Syria known as; "Garvaghy Road."
At the time the Garvaghy Road area had been particularly quiet.
Following Hillary Clinton's failure to secure the US Presidency on November 8th (8/11/16) Turkish President/Prime Minister/Emperor was keen to find out where he stood and whether he would continue to enjoy the support and protection of the US that has seen him prosper over recent years. While Erdogan was trying to make that assessment Turkey's force of invasion and occupation had paused their operations withing Garvaghy Road.
I should point out that on Thursday I was recovering from a cold that had put me out of action the previous day. Therefore this plan might have been slightly optimistic to begin with.
However as has so often been the case the real problem was caused by outgoing US President Barack Obama. With now just 39 days left of his Presidency Obama seems to have decided that he wants his legacy to the world to be the creation of an Erdogan controlled Islamist terror state within Syria.
So on Saturday (10/12/16) the US announced that it was deploying a further 200 Special Forces Operators (SFO's) to northern Syria. This is to add to the 300 already deployed bringing the total to 500. I get the impression that deployment was actually completed on Thursday (8/12/16) at the latest.
This deployment is intended to put pressure on the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF/QSD) who are the main anti-ISIL force within Syria to launch an operation to liberate ISIL's de facto Syrian capital - Raqqa. It goes alongside the twin threat that the US-led air coalition - Combined Joint Task Force: Operation Inherent Resolve (CJTFOIR) - will either withdraw its support from the SDF or even launch attacks against the SDF if they don't comply.
In liberating Mosul - ISIL's de facto Iraqi capital - the Iraqi Security Forces (ISF) and the Iraqi Kurdish Peshmerga have deployed a joint force of 40,000 heavily armed troops. In this US mandated operation to liberate Raqqa the SDF are deploying just 2,500 troops. Along with the 500 SFO's this creates a combined force of just 3,000 lightly armed troops.
As such the only strategic explanation for this Raqqa operation is that Obama is trying to get the SDF killed. Then when the SDF collapse and ISIL expand into the areas they once control it will provide Erdogan with an excuse to massively expand his invasion and occupation force beyond Garvaghy Road. Thus annexing northern Syria.
With Obama once again attempting to throw the full weight of the US behind Erdogan's dream of a new Ottoman Empire it almost goes without saying that Erdogan has once again leapt back into action.
Following a two week pause on Friday (9/12/16) Turkish forces resumed attacks on the SDF in order to seize control of the M4 motorway running between SDF controlled Manbij and ISIL controlled al-Bab. Over the weekend Turkey has announced that it has begun the process of absorbing ISIL fighters in al-Bab into the command structure of the Al Qaeda led, Turkish backed Army of Conquest/Jaish al-Fatah (JAF) coalition.
On Saturday (10/12/16) Turkey staged a bomb attack on police guarding the Besiktas football stadium in Istanbul. Occurring hours after a match had ended and the crowds dispersed this bombing killed 44 people - 42 police officers and 2 civilians.
The Besiktas stadium - technically the Vodafone Arena - is located right on the banks of the Bosporus Strait.
Linking the Black Sea with the Mediterranean Sea this waterway is of great strategic importance. In short if you close the Bosporus Strait you can stop all sea traffic between the Black Sea and the rest of the World. This is a particular concern for Russia who are using their Black Sea ports to supply their forces in Syria via Syria's Mediterranean ports.
As Turkish troops advance south down Garvaghy Road and Russian backed Syria troops advance north from Aleppo City we are edging ever closer to those Russian backed Syrian troops coming into direct combat with those Turkish troops. In those circumstances Pakistan will come under great pressure to allow Turkey as it's Muslim brother to use Pakistan's nuclear weapons against Russia.
The Bosporus Strait is of such strategic importance that it was scene of one of the most important military campaigns of the First World War in which the Ottoman Empire fought alongside the German Empire against the Allied forces of France, Belgium, Britain and the US. Amongst the Allied nations this is known as; "The Gallipoli Campaign" while Turks refer to it as; "The Canakkale Campaign."
Commanding the 19th Division of the Ottoman Fifth Army was a young officer by the name of Mustafa Kemal Ataturk. Although the Ottoman's won the battle Ataturk realised that the Empire was going to lose the war. So he set about forming the modern nation of Turkey as the Ottoman Empire collapsed in the 1920's. Neo-Ottoman's such as Erdogan despise him for this.
Apart from being of strategic importance the Bosporus Strait is seen as the symbolic division between the European part of Turkey and the Asian/Middle-Eastern part of Turkey. Besiktas Stadium is located on the European side of the Bosporus Strait.
As such this bombing was intended as yet another Turkish threat to Europe. Either - particularly the European Union (EU) - gives Erdogan exactly what he wants of Erdogan will flood Europe with irregular migrants. Hidden amid those migrants will be Islamist terrorists tasked with carrying out atrocities such as the November 13th 2015 (13/11/15) Paris Massacres in France and the March 22nd (22/3/16) attacks in Brussels, Belgium.
Today in the UK a trial has concluded with the sentencing of two men - Mohammed Ali Ahmed and Zakaria Boufassil - of funding the terror cell that conducted both the Paris Massacres and the Brussels Attacks. During the trial it emerged that Mohamed Abrini - the infamous "Man in the Hat" from the Brussels airport bombing - had travelled to the UK to meet these men. Specifically he had taken a tour of Manchester United's Old Trafford football stadium in what is suspected of being reconnaissance for a possible attack.
The attack also occurred as US President-elect Donald Trump was attending the annual US Army v Navy American Football game at a stadium in Baltimore, Maryland. As such it also seemed to be a threat not just to the US but to Donald Trump personally.
Although absolutely nobody in the business (not even Turks) believe him Erdogan has rather predictably blamed the attack on the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK). As such the bombing was staged to help rally the Turkish people behind Erdogan as he tries to fight Turkish terror.
Erdogan has recently introduced a bill into the Turkish Parliament that would change the constitution making the Presidency an executive office. This will allow Erdogan to remain in power until at least 2029 despite his having already exceeded his term limits.
It almost goes without saying that this reform bill is being presented to the public as absolutely essential to help defeat PKK terror. Already Erdogan has used the bombing as excuse to lock up 20 members of the opposition People's Democratic Party (HDP) who are likely vote against the reform bill.
Erdogan's plan for constitutional reform were of course initially defeated in June 2015 when his Islamist Justice & Development Party (AKP) failed to win a Parliamentary majority. It was at this point that Erdogan decided to start bombing the PKK ending the ceasefire and re-starting the war.
In response the two other Turkish political party's - the fascist Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) and Kemalist Republican Peoples Party (CHP) - have fallen in lock step behind Erdogan effectively turning Turkey into a one party state.
The fact this bombing targeted police at a Besiktas match is also quite interesting. Besikta's main local rival are Fenerbahce. As with Rangers and Celtic in Scotland the derby games between the two are the stuff of hooligan legend.
As a much younger man Erdogan was actually a trainee at Fenerbahce. As a result many of the hardcore Besiktas fans known as; "Ultras" absolutely despise Erdogan on that principle alone. When Erdogan formally opened the Besiktas stadium back on April 10th (10/4/16) many of the Besiktas Ultras were disgusted and boycotted the event.
As such the bombing seems to have been staged specifically to get the Besiktas Ultras to finally rally behind Erdogan. In part by showing that they too are under threat and need Erdogan to protect them. Also there are some who may actually be quite pleased by the fact that Erdogan has killed 42 police officers.
Erdogan is of course all too aware of the problems that football Ultras can cause for dictators such as himself.
Back in January 2011 the Ultras of Egypt's football clubs - particularly in the capital Cairo - agreed a temporary truce amongst themselves. These men who are very adept at outwitting and fighting with the police joined forces with the political dreamers and much of Egypt's general population to overthrow the dictatorship of Hosni Mubarak.
Along with the Bosporus Strait Egypt is also hugely important in the history of the Ottoman Empire that Erdogan is desperate to recreate.
On August 24th 1516 the burgeoning Ottoman Empire defeated the Mamluk Empire in the battle of Dabiq Meadow. The scene of that battle is actually located within Garvaghy Road. The Mamluk Empire was based in what is now modern Egypt. So with victory at Dabiq the Ottoman Empire took control of the Mamluk Empire and stretched itself across the Middle-East and North Africa.
So when Mubarak fell Erdogan saw an opportunity to build the new Ottoman Empire he dreams of by installing a Islamist puppet regime in the form of Mohamed Morsi. In response Egypt's football Ultras again united with the nation's idealists to overthrow the Morsi dictatorship in July 2013.
Erdogan has been extremely angry about that ever since both arming terror groups to attack Egypt and desperately trying to spread the lie that Morsi was overthrown by a military coup.
One of Erdogan's main tools in this effort is a former Al Jazeera 'journalist' Sherine Tadros who later went to work for the Sky News. So great have been the lies that Tadros has told on Erdogan's behalf she's actually been blacklisted by every western news agency as a terrorist propagandist.
Strangely then Amnesty International have decided to employ Tadros as their liaison to the UN. Bear that in mind the next time you read an Amnesty International press release.
With the wind back in his sails Erdogan struck again on Sunday (11/12/16).
This time with the bombing of the Coptic Christian Cathedral in Cairo which has killed at least 25 people. This came hot on the heels of a bombing Friday (9/12/16) at a police checkpoint on the main Cairo to Giza road that killed 6.
As with all the previous terror attacks these latest bombings are intended to undermine public confidence in the Egyptian security forces.
The idea being to destabilise the Egyptian state in order to ferment a Turkish backed Islamist takeover of the country.
18:06 on 12/12/16 (UK date).
I would write a single post covering developments on the three main areas in the fight against the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) and associated groups. Mosul in Iraq, Aleppo City in Syria and the area of northern Syria known as; "Garvaghy Road."
At the time the Garvaghy Road area had been particularly quiet.
Following Hillary Clinton's failure to secure the US Presidency on November 8th (8/11/16) Turkish President/Prime Minister/Emperor was keen to find out where he stood and whether he would continue to enjoy the support and protection of the US that has seen him prosper over recent years. While Erdogan was trying to make that assessment Turkey's force of invasion and occupation had paused their operations withing Garvaghy Road.
I should point out that on Thursday I was recovering from a cold that had put me out of action the previous day. Therefore this plan might have been slightly optimistic to begin with.
However as has so often been the case the real problem was caused by outgoing US President Barack Obama. With now just 39 days left of his Presidency Obama seems to have decided that he wants his legacy to the world to be the creation of an Erdogan controlled Islamist terror state within Syria.
So on Saturday (10/12/16) the US announced that it was deploying a further 200 Special Forces Operators (SFO's) to northern Syria. This is to add to the 300 already deployed bringing the total to 500. I get the impression that deployment was actually completed on Thursday (8/12/16) at the latest.
This deployment is intended to put pressure on the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF/QSD) who are the main anti-ISIL force within Syria to launch an operation to liberate ISIL's de facto Syrian capital - Raqqa. It goes alongside the twin threat that the US-led air coalition - Combined Joint Task Force: Operation Inherent Resolve (CJTFOIR) - will either withdraw its support from the SDF or even launch attacks against the SDF if they don't comply.
In liberating Mosul - ISIL's de facto Iraqi capital - the Iraqi Security Forces (ISF) and the Iraqi Kurdish Peshmerga have deployed a joint force of 40,000 heavily armed troops. In this US mandated operation to liberate Raqqa the SDF are deploying just 2,500 troops. Along with the 500 SFO's this creates a combined force of just 3,000 lightly armed troops.
As such the only strategic explanation for this Raqqa operation is that Obama is trying to get the SDF killed. Then when the SDF collapse and ISIL expand into the areas they once control it will provide Erdogan with an excuse to massively expand his invasion and occupation force beyond Garvaghy Road. Thus annexing northern Syria.
With Obama once again attempting to throw the full weight of the US behind Erdogan's dream of a new Ottoman Empire it almost goes without saying that Erdogan has once again leapt back into action.
Following a two week pause on Friday (9/12/16) Turkish forces resumed attacks on the SDF in order to seize control of the M4 motorway running between SDF controlled Manbij and ISIL controlled al-Bab. Over the weekend Turkey has announced that it has begun the process of absorbing ISIL fighters in al-Bab into the command structure of the Al Qaeda led, Turkish backed Army of Conquest/Jaish al-Fatah (JAF) coalition.
On Saturday (10/12/16) Turkey staged a bomb attack on police guarding the Besiktas football stadium in Istanbul. Occurring hours after a match had ended and the crowds dispersed this bombing killed 44 people - 42 police officers and 2 civilians.
The Besiktas stadium - technically the Vodafone Arena - is located right on the banks of the Bosporus Strait.
Linking the Black Sea with the Mediterranean Sea this waterway is of great strategic importance. In short if you close the Bosporus Strait you can stop all sea traffic between the Black Sea and the rest of the World. This is a particular concern for Russia who are using their Black Sea ports to supply their forces in Syria via Syria's Mediterranean ports.
As Turkish troops advance south down Garvaghy Road and Russian backed Syria troops advance north from Aleppo City we are edging ever closer to those Russian backed Syrian troops coming into direct combat with those Turkish troops. In those circumstances Pakistan will come under great pressure to allow Turkey as it's Muslim brother to use Pakistan's nuclear weapons against Russia.
The Bosporus Strait is of such strategic importance that it was scene of one of the most important military campaigns of the First World War in which the Ottoman Empire fought alongside the German Empire against the Allied forces of France, Belgium, Britain and the US. Amongst the Allied nations this is known as; "The Gallipoli Campaign" while Turks refer to it as; "The Canakkale Campaign."
Commanding the 19th Division of the Ottoman Fifth Army was a young officer by the name of Mustafa Kemal Ataturk. Although the Ottoman's won the battle Ataturk realised that the Empire was going to lose the war. So he set about forming the modern nation of Turkey as the Ottoman Empire collapsed in the 1920's. Neo-Ottoman's such as Erdogan despise him for this.
Apart from being of strategic importance the Bosporus Strait is seen as the symbolic division between the European part of Turkey and the Asian/Middle-Eastern part of Turkey. Besiktas Stadium is located on the European side of the Bosporus Strait.
As such this bombing was intended as yet another Turkish threat to Europe. Either - particularly the European Union (EU) - gives Erdogan exactly what he wants of Erdogan will flood Europe with irregular migrants. Hidden amid those migrants will be Islamist terrorists tasked with carrying out atrocities such as the November 13th 2015 (13/11/15) Paris Massacres in France and the March 22nd (22/3/16) attacks in Brussels, Belgium.
Today in the UK a trial has concluded with the sentencing of two men - Mohammed Ali Ahmed and Zakaria Boufassil - of funding the terror cell that conducted both the Paris Massacres and the Brussels Attacks. During the trial it emerged that Mohamed Abrini - the infamous "Man in the Hat" from the Brussels airport bombing - had travelled to the UK to meet these men. Specifically he had taken a tour of Manchester United's Old Trafford football stadium in what is suspected of being reconnaissance for a possible attack.
The attack also occurred as US President-elect Donald Trump was attending the annual US Army v Navy American Football game at a stadium in Baltimore, Maryland. As such it also seemed to be a threat not just to the US but to Donald Trump personally.
Although absolutely nobody in the business (not even Turks) believe him Erdogan has rather predictably blamed the attack on the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK). As such the bombing was staged to help rally the Turkish people behind Erdogan as he tries to fight Turkish terror.
Erdogan has recently introduced a bill into the Turkish Parliament that would change the constitution making the Presidency an executive office. This will allow Erdogan to remain in power until at least 2029 despite his having already exceeded his term limits.
It almost goes without saying that this reform bill is being presented to the public as absolutely essential to help defeat PKK terror. Already Erdogan has used the bombing as excuse to lock up 20 members of the opposition People's Democratic Party (HDP) who are likely vote against the reform bill.
Erdogan's plan for constitutional reform were of course initially defeated in June 2015 when his Islamist Justice & Development Party (AKP) failed to win a Parliamentary majority. It was at this point that Erdogan decided to start bombing the PKK ending the ceasefire and re-starting the war.
In response the two other Turkish political party's - the fascist Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) and Kemalist Republican Peoples Party (CHP) - have fallen in lock step behind Erdogan effectively turning Turkey into a one party state.
The fact this bombing targeted police at a Besiktas match is also quite interesting. Besikta's main local rival are Fenerbahce. As with Rangers and Celtic in Scotland the derby games between the two are the stuff of hooligan legend.
As a much younger man Erdogan was actually a trainee at Fenerbahce. As a result many of the hardcore Besiktas fans known as; "Ultras" absolutely despise Erdogan on that principle alone. When Erdogan formally opened the Besiktas stadium back on April 10th (10/4/16) many of the Besiktas Ultras were disgusted and boycotted the event.
As such the bombing seems to have been staged specifically to get the Besiktas Ultras to finally rally behind Erdogan. In part by showing that they too are under threat and need Erdogan to protect them. Also there are some who may actually be quite pleased by the fact that Erdogan has killed 42 police officers.
Erdogan is of course all too aware of the problems that football Ultras can cause for dictators such as himself.
Back in January 2011 the Ultras of Egypt's football clubs - particularly in the capital Cairo - agreed a temporary truce amongst themselves. These men who are very adept at outwitting and fighting with the police joined forces with the political dreamers and much of Egypt's general population to overthrow the dictatorship of Hosni Mubarak.
Along with the Bosporus Strait Egypt is also hugely important in the history of the Ottoman Empire that Erdogan is desperate to recreate.
On August 24th 1516 the burgeoning Ottoman Empire defeated the Mamluk Empire in the battle of Dabiq Meadow. The scene of that battle is actually located within Garvaghy Road. The Mamluk Empire was based in what is now modern Egypt. So with victory at Dabiq the Ottoman Empire took control of the Mamluk Empire and stretched itself across the Middle-East and North Africa.
So when Mubarak fell Erdogan saw an opportunity to build the new Ottoman Empire he dreams of by installing a Islamist puppet regime in the form of Mohamed Morsi. In response Egypt's football Ultras again united with the nation's idealists to overthrow the Morsi dictatorship in July 2013.
Erdogan has been extremely angry about that ever since both arming terror groups to attack Egypt and desperately trying to spread the lie that Morsi was overthrown by a military coup.
One of Erdogan's main tools in this effort is a former Al Jazeera 'journalist' Sherine Tadros who later went to work for the Sky News. So great have been the lies that Tadros has told on Erdogan's behalf she's actually been blacklisted by every western news agency as a terrorist propagandist.
Strangely then Amnesty International have decided to employ Tadros as their liaison to the UN. Bear that in mind the next time you read an Amnesty International press release.
With the wind back in his sails Erdogan struck again on Sunday (11/12/16).
This time with the bombing of the Coptic Christian Cathedral in Cairo which has killed at least 25 people. This came hot on the heels of a bombing Friday (9/12/16) at a police checkpoint on the main Cairo to Giza road that killed 6.
As with all the previous terror attacks these latest bombings are intended to undermine public confidence in the Egyptian security forces.
The idea being to destabilise the Egyptian state in order to ferment a Turkish backed Islamist takeover of the country.
18:06 on 12/12/16 (UK date).
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