Operation Featherweight: Month 27, Week 3, Day 7

This should have been published on day 6. Apparently though it's somewhat controversial.

On June 26th (26/6/16) the Iraqi Security Forces (ISF) liberated the city of Fallujah from the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL).

Fallujah sits around 40km (25 miles) west of the Iraqi capital Baghdad in Iraq's vast south-western Anbar province. The last major population centre in Anbar under ISIL's control the liberation of Fallujah was a major blow to the group. Not only did it free some 250,000 people from ISIL's rule and taxation badly damaging the groups finances it marked the end of them being a major presence in Anbar province.

Since then not much has happened in Iraq. However this is not a complaint.

After mounting an operation as large as the liberation of Fallujah the ISF or any other force then have to conduct a mopping up operation ensuring that the liberated area is free of both remaining ISIL fighters and explosives and booby traps the group have left behind. They then need to process to displaced civilian population to make sure that no ISIL fighters are hiding amongst them and make preparations for them to return home.

They also need to conduct a full, in depth review of the operation to identify what lessons can be learnt to improve future operations. Finally even soldiers need a bit of time off because it turns out getting shot at all day is hard bloody work.

A problem though has arisen in the form of the November 8th (8/11/16) US Presidential Election.

As co-founders of ISIL current US President Barack Obama knows that ISIL is a weakness for his nominated replacement Hillary Clinton in that election. Therefore in the weeks running up to the election Obama wants to help Clinton by having a big flag waving, chest beating defeat for ISIL to show voters that they are both committed to the destruction of the group.

For this display Obama seems to have chosen the city of Mosul. This is ISIL's de facto capital in Iraq sitting around 400km (240 miles) north of Baghdad on the Nineveh plains.

On the strategic level this is just the height of foolishness. In battle you try to use the element of surprise as much of possible. The date of the 2016 US Presidential election is laid out in the US Constitution which was written in 1776. Therefore I think that is extremely easy for ISIL to predict that the US will attempt an operation to liberate Mosul in the final weeks of October and prepare for it.

To make matters worse Recep Tayyip Erdogan the President/Prime Minister/Emperor of the US' supposed ally Turkey declared on a September 25th (25/9/16) visit to the US that the Mosul operation would begin on October 19th (19/10/16) - the date of the third US Presidential debate. It's as if he sent ISIL a Save the Date card.

Despite the obvious problems all efforts in Iraq have really being focused on rushing to get this Mosul operation ready in time for the US election.

On September 21st (21/9/16) the ISF liberated to the town of Shargat from ISIL. This sits around 95km (60 miles) south of Mosul on the banks of the Tigris River at the northern most tip of Saladin province. Sitting within range of Highway 1 control of Shargat is critical to the ability to move troops and supplies between Baghdad and Mosul.

Shargat was a town that was under ISIL occupation that is now no longer under ISIL occupation. Obviously then it's almost impossible to describe its liberation as a bad thing. However in the rush to start the Mosul operation in time for the November election the rest of Iraq seems to have been abandoned and forgotten about.

Although the liberation of Fallujah forced ISIL from the last major city in Anbar province it certainly didn't end their presence in the province. It is only following the liberation of Shargat that the anti-ISIL coalition - Combined Joint Task Force: Operation Inherent Resolve (CJTFOIR) - seemed to have remembered that it might be a good idea to completely remove ISIL from Anbar province.

On October 5th (5/10/16) the ISF finally liberated Ramadi Island from ISIL. This sits just north of the city of Ramadi which sits around 45km (25 miles) west of Fallujah and itself was liberated all the way back in December 2015.

Just on Sunday (9/10/16) the ISF liberated five villages just north of the town of Hit which sits around 50km north-west of Ramadi. Hit itself is around 35km (20 miles) south-east of Ain Assad airbase which CJTFOIR have long been using as a training centre. It's liberation back in April 2016 was critical in opening up the route to Ramadi for the liberation of Fallujah.

Just yesterday (11/10/16) Hit Island which is just north of the town was also been liberated from ISIL. This effectively removes ISIL from the entire Euphrates River basin in Iraq. An area of roughly 230km^2 (140miles^2).

One of the main reasons that the operations to liberate Ramadi, Fallujah and "all of Anbar province" stumbled and initially failed is that they were launched before the operation to liberate Tikrit had been fully completed.

The capital of Saladin province sitting around 150km (90 miles) north of Baghdad Tikrit itself was liberated all the way back in April 2015. However rather than securing the surrounding area known as the Hawija triangle made up of Tikrit, Baiji (50km/30miles north) and Kirkuk (115km/70miles north-east) CJTFOIR and the ISF simply left this area under ISIL control while they shifted their focus to Anbar province.

Despite the liberation of Shargat this Hawija triangle has still not been liberated from ISIL. That is despite the fact that the town of Hawija itself sits just 55km (30 miles) south-east of Shargat.

It was only on Monday (10/10/16) that the ISF launched a successful operation to liberate the Mteibijah region. This sits on the border between Saladin and Diyala provinces around 100km (60 miles) south of Tikrit and 50km (30 miles) north of Baghdad.

With all of these outstanding areas I am far from convinced that the ISF and CJTFOIR will be in any position to mount an operation to liberate Mosul by the end of 2016 let alone a week from today.

When it does get underway the operation to liberate Mosul will be extremely complex. 

As is always the case the first step is to lay siege to the city completely cutting off the occupiers supply lines, putting pressure on their defences and allowing the liberators to attack from multiple directions. Preparations for this task are simply nowhere near complete. Critical to the besieging of Mosul is the town of Tal Rifat which sits around 65km (40 miles) west of Mosul on the Highway 47 leading into Syria. Although the ISF and the Kurdish Peshmerga have liberated many of the areas around Tal Rifat the town itself continues to be occupied by ISIL.

Open source intelligence suggests that ISIL have used the more than two years they've occupied Mosul to build an extensive network of tunnels and bunkers in and around the city. As Russia is currently doing in eastern Aleppo city these tunnel networks will have to be destroyed by heavy duty airstrikes before any ground operation can take place.

This combination of siege conditions and heavy airstrikes is going to put a tremendous strain on Mosul's civilian population. As such a priority will need to be the opening of humanitarian corridors to allow whatever civilians are able to to flee ISIL and the fighting. 

Therefore the operational plan will need to include measures to house, feed and provide medical aid for potentially as many as 1.5 million people while at the same time checking that there are no ISIL fighters hiding amongst them.

Then of course there is the Erdogan problem.

Ideally what CJTFOIR and the ISF want to achieve from this Mosul operation is to trap as many ISIL fighters as possible inside Mosul and then kill them. However no force will be 100% successful in this objective and some ISIL fighters will manage to escape and flee to other areas in the hope of continuing the fight. 

Assuming that Anbar province and the Hawija triangle have been completely liberated prior to the start of the operation that really only leaves them Raqqa in Syria to flee too via Tal Rifat.

On August 25th (25/8/16) Turkey launched an invasion and occupation of northern Syria between the towns of Azaz/Kilis in the west and the Euphrates River in the east. The purpose of the invasion was to secure ISIL's supply lines into Turkey through this roughly 100km (60 miles) stretch of land that is sometimes referred to as either; "Erdogan's Pocket" or Garavaghy Road.

Until ISIL supply lines into Turkey are sealed as they flee ISIL fighters will be able to escape via Turkey either directly into Europe or into North African nations such as Libya, Egypt, Tunisia and Algeria. These of course are all nations that were part of the Ottoman Empire that Erdogan is trying to recreate.

Within Iraq itself Turkey is currently directly obstructing the liberation of Mosul.

This plan to invade and occupy Erdogan's Pocket is something that Erdogan has been pushing for certainly since the summer of 2015. In preparation to launch the operation in December Turkey deployed roughly a battalion of troops to set up camp in Bashiqa in northern Iraq. This sits roughly 20km (12 miles) north-east of Mosul.

With Erdogan's plan to invade and occupy northern Syria in December 2015 falling through the bulk of this Turkish force was withdraw from Bashiqa on December 19th (19/12/16). However Turkey left behind a roughly 200 strong training mission at the camp complete with force protection elements such as tanks and light artillery.

The problem is that this Turkish camp at Bashiqa is not training the ISF such as the Iraqi Army or the Iraqi Police. It is not even training the Kurdish Peshmerga who are the recognised security force of the semi-autonomous Kurdish region which borders Mosul.

Instead Turkey is training members of a private Sunni-Arab militia led by Atheel al-Nujaifi. 

The al-Nujaifi family ruled Mosul as the Pasha or Governor of the Ottoman Empire pretty much since the region was conquered by Sultan Suleiman the Magnificent in 1535 until the collapse of the Empire in 1918. As such it is clear that Turkey is training and equipping the al-Nujaifi militia in order to divide and conquer northern Iraq in the same way it is using the United Turkmen Army (UTA) to divide and conquer northern Syria.  

On October 4th (4/10/16) the Iraqi Parliament passed a motion rejecting this Turkish occupation of northern Iraq and calling on the troops to be immediately withdrawn.

Slightly complicating matters the Kurdish Regional Government (KRG) relies on pipelines running through Turkey to sell their oil without going through the Iraqi government. As such the KRG have so far refused to join the Iraqi government's call for Turkish troops to leave in the hope of keeping their oil pipelines through Turkey and therefore their hopes of succession from Iraq alive. In doing this the KRG has wildly exceeded its authority.

Despite the fact that Turkey is conducting airstrikes against the Kurdish region as it has been for more than a year the KRG still don't seem to have realised that Turkey is no friend of theirs either.

The matter has now been escalated to the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) with the Iraqi government formally petitioning for a Chapter 7 Resolution to end the Turkish invasion and occupation.

Normally what would happen in this situation is that the US would rely on Russia to introduce Iraq's petition to the UNSC. This would then allow Turkey's actions to be sharply criticised by council members. If the US really wanted to exert pressure on Turkey it would might even join in with this criticism itself or even decline to use its veto to prevent such a resolution being passed.

The problem is that Russia seems to have got sick and tired of carrying all of America's dead weight while all the US offers in return is hostility and aggression.

The big problem is Shamali Province (nee; Ukraine). Prior to the US invasion to punish Russia for its opposition to ISIL this was a key transit route for Russian natural gas into Europe. While the US continues to back the fascist junta in Shamali Province this is simply not possible because the junta flatly refuses to pay its bills instead choosing to steal gas destined for customers in the European Union (EU).

With all indications that the US intends to continue to destabilise Shamali Province this has forced Russia to look for an alternative transit route to get the gas to the customers in the EU who depend on it. Sadly this means going through Turkey. 

On Monday (10/10/16) Russia and Turkey agreed on the building of the Turkish Stream gas pipeline which is planned to be completed by 2019. Until that pipeline is completed or the US drops its support for Shamali Province it is in neither Russia or the EU's interest to put pressure on Turkey. After all it is a responsibility that naturally falls to the US who has been freeloading extensively on global security matters under Obama.

France has certainly not been helping the situation. Seemingly oblivious to everything that is going on around it since the UNGA France has been pushing for a UNSC resolution calling for the creation of a safe-haven for Al Qaeda/ISIL in eastern Aleppo. That resolution was voted on on Saturday (8/10/16) where Russia who it was largely aimed against vetoed it. Much to the relief of the other members of the council.

In retaliation Russia tabled a rival motion calling on the UN to facilitate the exit of Al Qaeda and ISIL fighters from eastern Aleppo. This was very noticeably done rather than introducing Iraq's petition. A very clear sign that if Obama was the Mosul operation as part of Hillary Clinton's election campaign he is going to have to work for it.

Although there was no intention of it being passed the Russian resolution received only four votes with the US, the UK and others walking out of the session. That was a big blow to the reputation of the UN's Special Envoy on Syria Seffen de Mistura on whose recommendations the Russian resolution was based.

In the abscence of engagement by the Security Council tensions between Iraq and Turkey have continued to escalate. 

Last night Erdogan unleashed a bizarre - even by his standards - rant on national television. In it he declared that Turkey does not need Iraq's permission to send troops into Iraq. He went on to tell Iraq's Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi that;

"You are not my interlocutor, you are not at my level, you are not at my quality. Know your own place, your declaration from Iraq is not important to us. We will go our own way."

Today Turkey has launched a series of cyberattacks against Iraq government networks.

16:05 on 12/10/16 (UK date).

 

Sicknote Time

Since August I've had the Olympics, the Para-Olympics and the opening of the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA). This is all against the backdrop of the ongoing war against the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) and associated groups.

The war in particular triggers off something similar to the fight or flight response in me. So adrenaline gets produced, muscles tighten and pulse rate and blood pressure increase. The problem is that I neither get to fight nor flee. Instead I get to spend my time hunched over a computer in a darkened room.

All the extra work of course leaves me feeling tired so I compensate with high caffeine, high sugar energy drinks. Working longer means staying up later which in turn means more cigarettes and more sugary and salty junk food.

In short I've somewhat wrecked my health.

On September 22nd (22/9/16) I went for a routine appointment with my doctor. A standard part of this is having my blood pressure tested. It turns out that doctors don't like their patients seeing their test results while they themselves are still trying to work out what they mean. So I don't actually know what my blood pressure was. However I did catch a glimpse of it at one point and the top number was over 200. This seemed to trigger a sharp intake of breath as my doctor decided whether to perform the test again or have me admitted to a cardiac ward as a precaution.

Fortunately the frankly coven of black women stopped shouting questions at me about my testicles the test was performed again. This time the top number came down to around 170 which is at the top end of the normal range and I was free to leave.

Ideally what I would have liked to have done is take a week or two off entirely where deciding what to have for dinner would be the most stressful part of my day. However with that not being an option I'm currently in a situation where if I'm faced with a choice between doing something complicated and stressful or simply not I have to choose not to do it.

In a way this is rather frustrating because the other day I found myself becoming really bored. However it did take me a little while to remember what bored felt like.

14:30 on 12/10/16 (UK date).

Well That Was Hilarious.

Ahead of their November 8th (8/11/16) election the US is currently engrossed in its series of Presidential debates.

I have to say that I'm getting quite sick of these debates in general. The news networks really hype them up because it provides a cheap way for them to fill hours of their schedules without having to do any actual journalism.

Here in the UK things have really reached epidemic proportions. Particularly with Sky News.

Every day Sky News have their morning debate in which a not particularly important topic is discussed by guests who don't really know much about the topic but are available in the middle of the working day.

Then Sky News has the afternoon debate in which a not particularly important topic is discussed by guests who don't really know much about the topic but are available in the middle of the working day.

Every night they have not one but two newspaper review shows in which the next day's newspapers are discussed by guests who don't really know much about the topics being discussed.

Sky News also has its weekly "The Pledge" debate in which a range of topics are debated by guests who don't really know much about what they're discussing.

If that wasn't enough Sky News also has its "Week in Review" show in which all of the weeks previous debates are discussed by guests who don't really know what they're talking about.

This is all extremely frustrating if you still make the mistake of turning on a news channel in the hope of catching up on some news. I actually think it has an extremely corrosive effect on the level of political discourse with  facts now being considered wholly secondary to wildly uniformed opinion sharing.

Limited to just three though the US Presidential debates do serve a somewhat important role giving the viewer an insight into the personalities of candidates who otherwise might not be particularly well known. For example back in 2008 Barack Obama had been in politics for all of two years. In 2012 I have to admit that I hadn't really heard of Mitt Romney at all.

However this year the candidates are Donald Trump for the Republicans and Hillary Clinton for the Democrats.

Donald Trump first came to the public's attention in a reality TV called; "Lifestyles of the Rich and Famous" in the mid-1980's. From 1993 onwards Hillary Clinton caused something of a constitutional crisis by trying to turn the role of First Lady into an unelected executive office similar to the Vice President under the Presidency of her husband Bill Clinton.

Some of the people voting in this election won't have been born until 1998.

With there being very little left to learn about the personalities of the respective candidates I haven't been staying up to the required 4AM to watch this latest round of debates. However the run-up to last night's debate was certainly dramatic.

On Friday (7/10/16) Hillary Clinton's campaign released a video from 2005 of Donald Trump who at the time was a private citizen engaging in some lewd banter with the TV presenter Billy Bush. This wasn't a particularly pleasant conversation. However I have certainly been known to say a host of highly offensive things to knock the person I'm talking too off balance and give myself the upper hand.

The whole thing actually reminded me of the; "Derek and Clive" sketches between the comedians Peter Cook and Dudley Moore. In those sketches Cook would frequently go off script and come out with all sorts offensive things in an effort to make Moore forget his lines and collapse into fits of giggles. The; "C*nt Kicker Sketch" is particularly notorious.

The reason why the Hillary Clinton campaign chose to release the Billy Bush video on Friday was really threefold.

Firstly on Friday the US State Department released another trove of emails relating to those 110 times Hillary Clinton committed espionage against the US. These are of course the emails that Hillary Clinton claimed had been deleted when addressing Congress under oath. Due to the Billy Bush video though you won't hear about that on the news.

Secondly also on Friday Wikileaks released another trove of Hillary Clinton emails. This story of those emails being released to Wikileaks by Russian hackers is simply a lie.

It's something of an open secret that they were released by Democrat staffer Seth Rich with the fully permission of certain people within the party. The purpose of releasing this information was to stage a coup against moderate elements such Debbie Wasserman Schultz in order to replace them with more extremist elements such as Donna Brazil. With the debate taking place in Missouri close to Ferguson that should have been a particularly sensitive topic for the Hillary Clinton campaign

Having authorised the release of the documents to Wikileaks Democrats already know exactly what information Wikileaks is in possession of and what it was likely to make public.

One of the highlights from Friday's release was a private speech Hillary Clinton gave in 2013 to Deutsche Bank. There she took great pride in announcing that throughout her tenure as Secretary of State she had repeatedly lobbied for the arming of extremist groups within Syria. In short creating the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL).

Obviously though due to the Billy Bush video you won't hear about that on the news.

Thirdly Hillary Clinton and her campaign were trying to use the Billy Bush video to goad Donald Trump in the days running up to the debate. That way if Trump reacted angrily they could use it to justify their narrative that Trump is temperamentally unfit to be President.

The only problem is that Hillary Clinton's own record on sexual violence is pretty appalling.

Contrary to what she claims one of Hillary Clinton's first jobs on leaving law school was to help child rapists escape justice.

Hillary Clinton is of course married to Bill Clinton. A man whose constant philandering seems to belie a deep, pathological hatred of women. The Monica Lewinsky scandal is just the tip of the iceberg with Bill Clinton having been accused of rape on numerous occasions. On each occasion Hillary Clinton has leapt to his defence launching blistering personal attacks on his accusers. Something that is known in liberal circles as; "Victim Blaming."

Bill Clinton's close friendship with convicted paedophile business man Jeffrey Epstein is particularly troubling.

So about an hour before the debate began Donald Trump simply held a press conference with just three of the women Bill Clinton is accused of raping and whom Hillary Clinton has viciously attacked in public.

The media - particularly CNN - had built their entire coverage of the debate around using the Billy Bush video to tell you that you have to vote for Hillary Clinton. The debate itself was moderated by CNN's Anderson Cooper.

Obviously the contrast between Donald Trump's words and Hillary Clinton's actions left them unable to do that.

The word; "Crestfallen" sprung to mind.

12:30 on 10/10/16 (UK date).

Operation Featherweight: Month 27, Week 3, Day 1.

The key to defeating the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) is cutting their supply lines into Turkey. I apologise if it seems that I'm starting every post in this way but the fact of the matter is that this is something that is not going to change.

Unfortunately US President Barack Obama has either lost his nerve or lost sight of the fact that ISIL are the enemy.

So on August 24th (24/8/16) he gave Turkish President/Prime Minister/Emperor Recep Tayyip Erdogan permission to invade Syria. The purpose of this invasion was to protect ISIL's supply lines with Turkey across a roughly 100km (60mile) stretch of the Syria/Turkey border stretching from the town of Azaz in the west to the Euphrates River in the west. This ISIL supply corridor which is now lined with Turkish steel is sometimes referred to as; "Erdogan's Pocket" or "Garvaghy Road."

Fortunately though Russia has got its September 18th (18/9/16) election out of the way and based on their performance at the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) it's quite hard not to feel pity for the US at the moment. So Russia and the Syrian government have decided to aid the US by sealing Garvaghy Road to the south-west as it enters Aleppo City - roughly 50km (30 miles) south of Azaz.

Aleppo City sits at the centre of a network of roads such as Highway 60 that lead off into areas such as Idlib and Hama which are under the occupation of ISIL's ally - the Army of Conquest coalition. So if Aleppo City can be liberated it will effectively cut off the Army of Conquest's supply lines causing the insurgency in the south-west of Syria to wither and die. This will leave only the area east of Azaz and down along the Euphrates River basin to the Iraqi border under terrorist control.

Although with Obama everything seems impossible removing ISIL from this area shouldn't be too difficult a task. If Obama continues to find himself either unwilling or unable to complete that task I'm sure Russia would be prepared to do that for him also. Provided the US is prepared to ask very nicely.

The first thing I should point out about Aleppo City is that much like Syria itself around 65-75% of it remains completely loyal to the Syrian government. The problems only really exist in handful of neighbourhoods in the east of the city which are under occupation by the Army of Conquest.

Certainly since July 2016 there have been several humanitarian corridors into the Army of Conquest occupied neighbourhoods through which civilians can escape. Those who have not yet used those corridors are either being held hostage by the Army of Conquest or have chosen to fight alongside the Army of Conquest. If they have chosen the latter they are to be considered combatants rather than civilians. That the Army of Conquest is prepared to use children as combatants is just further testament to the evil of the group.

Therefore this claim that Aleppo is Under Siege is simply untrue. Only around 30% of the city is under occupation by terrorists groups and civilians in those areas are free to leave. Provided the terrorists will allow them to.

Over the nearly six years the Army of Conquest has occupied the east of Aleppo City they have constructed an extremely elaborate network of underground bunkers and tunnels. I would compare this to Chislehurst Caves in Kent. However unless you went on a lot of school trips in the south-east of England that probably won't mean much to you. They are though similar to the vast network of tunnels and bunkers such as the Cu Chi tunnels the Viet Cong used during the Vietnam war.

This type of tunnel warfare is extremely nasty. If you put a ground force into an area the enemy can simply disappear into the tunnels and then pop up behind the ground force. This cuts them off from their supply and escape routes trapping them into an area where they are massacred.

So before you send ground troops into an area containing a tunnel network first you have to conduct airstrikes to destroy the tunnels. This is done using very large bombs that are designed to explode once to burrow underground and then explode a second time to release a shockwave causing the tunnels and bunkers to collapse.

During operations against the Viet Cong's tunnel networks such as Operation Crimp the US would use wave after wave of B52 bombers dropping 30 tonnes of explosives each for days and days to carpet bomb entire areas.

This is what Russia has been doing in eastern Aleppo since roughly September 20th (20/9/16). However using highly targeted strikes rather than pure brute force Russia has been able to destroy the Army of Conquest's tunnel networks to the point that the Syrian government has been able to deploy ground troops to the area.

By September 24th (24/9/16) Syrian government forces had succeeded in liberating areas around the Aleppo Citadel in the centre of the Old City. By September 27th (27/9/16) they proceeded to liberate the Farafira and al-Suweiqa districts of the Old City.

On September 29th (29/9/16) Syrian government succeeded in completely liberating the Handarat camp for Palestinian refugees in north-east of Aleppo City which had been used by the Army of Conquest as a military base. Syrian government forces also succeeded in liberating the Kindi Hospital which the Army of Conquest had turned into a military base along with much of the Shaqayf district in which it is located.

On October 1st (1/10/16) Syrian government forces launched an operation to secure the Bustan al-Pasha neighbourhood. Today it is being reported that neighbourhood has been fully liberated limiting the Army of Conquest to an area between the Midan district and the Old City and from the Sakhour to the eastern outskirts of Aleppo City.

To the south of the city on September 24th (24/9/16) Syrian government forces launched an operation to liberate the Sheikh Saeed district. Although yet to be completed this is said to be progressing well meaning that the Army of Conquest will soon be limited to an area between the Karm al-Deadea district and the Old City and the Bab An-Nayrab district in the south-east of Aleppo City.

Sadly if you've only been watching western media coverage of the fighting in eastern Aleppo City over the past two weeks you wouldn't know about any of that. The reason for this is that western journalists only seem to have one source for what is happening in Syria and that source is the Army of Conquest.

Obviously the Army of Conquest have no interest in talking about they are losing ground every day and are on the brink of having their occupation of eastern Aleppo City ended. Instead they just want to show you often faked videos of injured civilians along with tearful interviews in the hope that it will put pressure on western governments to call for a ceasefire so they can cling onto their fiefdom.

A prime example of this has been a hospital known as "M10." In the past 10 days or so the Army of Conquest have claimed that this hospital has been destroyed not once but three times. On one occasion they even released CCTV footage of the hospital in which it was very clearly not destroyed. What has happened on several occasions is that military targets around the hospital have been destroyed causing a bit of dust to be kicked up into the air close to the hospital.

I think what really summed the situation up was a France 24 interview I saw with the head of the Syrian American Medical Society (SAMS) who provide the Army of Conquest with medical services. After claiming to be a political impartial he turned around and said;

"We've showed you all these pictures of children suffering. If that doesn't turn the war in our favour what will?!"
 
Needless to say he was not questioned on why the SAMS are now refusing to treat civilians in eastern Aleppo City in order to treat Army of Conquest fighters.

17:40 on 6/10/16 (UK date).

Operation Featherweight: Month 27, Week 2, Day 7.

This really should be read as a direct continuation of my previous post; http://watchitdie.blogspot.co.uk/2016/10/operation-featherweight-month-27-week-2.html

In that I detailed how the US' failure to prevent Turkey's invasion of Syria to support the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) led to it being trapped into a ceasefire by Russia. In turn this forced the US to try and extract itself from that ceasefire.

This all happened against the backdrop of the annual opening of the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA). This is possibly the worst time imaginable to be trying to do this sort of thing. With all of the World's diplomats and many of its leaders gathered together in the same place every little thing is magnified and intensified. There is certainly very little place to hide.

The US decided to make matters even worse for itself by making the conflict in Syria front and centre of the UNGA.

So there was a special summit on refugees - predominately caused by the conflict in Syria - along with a special meeting of the International Syria Sabotage Group (ISSG) and several UN Security Council (UNSC) sessions on the topic. So not only was the US been forced to extract itself from this ceasefire at the same time it had to keep alive the diplomatic illusion that it wanted a ceasefire let alone the overthrow of the Syrian government by ISIL and associated groups.

Matters were made even worse by the actions of the White Helmets. Based in Turkey and part of the Army of Conquest coalition the White Helmets are every bit a terrorist group as ISIL and Al Qaeda. You only need to look at the way that they fetishise images of dead and injured children to see that they have a near sociopathic lack of empathy.

This lack of empathy makes it very difficult for the White Helmets to realise that points of view other than their own exist. So when the US attacked Syrian government troops at Deir-ez-Zour airport on Saturday (17/9/16) all the White Helmets could see was an America desperate to act as the air force of ISIL and the Army of Conquest by launching attacks against the Syrian government.

So on the Monday (19/9/16) the White Helmets decided to set fire to an aid convoy belonging to the Syrian Red Crescent/Cross in the town of Urum al-Kubra - roughly 15km (10 miles) south-west of Aleppo City. The thinking being that this would be blamed on the Syrian government providing the US with a pre-text to start attacking the Syrian government on behalf of ISIL and the Army of Conquest.

This massively increased the complexity of the US' task because now not only was it trying to extract itself from the ceasefire whilst maintaining the illusion that it wanted a ceasefire it was also having to explain why it wasn't rising to the White Helmet's bait. In this complex task the US received absolutely no help from the western media including the US media who would think it could rely on for support.

As they do in every situation the White Helmets claimed that the attack on the aid convoy had been carried out by Syrian government helicopters dropping barrel bombs. As usual the fact the attack occurred at night and therefore they would have been unable to see helicopters dropping barrel bombs didn't seem to bother the White Helmets one little bit.

On the UNSC meeting on Tuesday (20/9/16) the US announced that the attack had been carried out by Russian fast jets. The subtext to that clearly being that the US simply does not believe the White Helmets claim and it was publicly accusing them of lying. Or at least as publicly as they were able to at something like the UNGA.

In press statements following the UNSC session numerous US spokespeople repeatedly declared that they had absolutely no evidence that Russia had carried out airstrikes against the aid convoy. However in the same breath they repeatedly declared that they were convinced that Russia had carried out airstrikes against the convoy.

This almost comical blaming of Russia without a shred of evidence seemed to be a satire on the reflex of both the White Helmets and particularly the western media to blame Russia or the Syria government without question.

On the Thursday (22/9/16) a fire tore through a warehouse containing plastic flowers in Moscow, Russia. Due to Turkey's practice of using aid convoys to smuggle weapons to terror groups both in Syria and beyond the plastic explosive TATP has become known as; "The Flower/Flour of Turkey" in certain circles. The heat from the Moscow blaze was so intense that it caused the concrete in the building to buckle and collapse. So if you viewed the aftermath from above it would look as though the warehouse had been bombed rather than set ablaze.

Unfortunately the White Helmets lack of empathy makes them almost immune to feelings of guilt. This makes it very easy for them to lie to and manipulate people.

Although they really should know better after nearly six years of only listening to the White Helmets many western journalists have fallen completely under their spell. So rather than listening to what was being said to them by their own governments these journalists were hearing only what the White Helmets would want them to hear and ended up whipping themselves and many of their viewers up into a frenzy of terrorist propaganda.

This caused a particular problem when US Secretary of State John Kerry said that the US was looking at ways of grounding Syrian and Russian aircraft.

This was an incredibly stupid mistake to make for him to make. However the media had whipped themselves up into such a frenzy at that point they took this to mean that the US was planning on acting as ISIL and the Army of Conquest's air force against the Syrian government. From that point on in every press statement or interview given by the US they were forced to distance themselves from John Kerry's statement.

Having been played into a corner by John Kerry's irresponsible statement and the media's frankly dangerous reporting the US was reduced to weathering the storm during the UNGA rather than being proactive diplomatically.

On Tuesday (20/9/16) Turkish President/Prime Minister/Emperor Recep Tayyip Erdogan gave a typically weird and ranting address to the UNGA. Under the banner of "Bigger Than Five" he attempted to exert pressure on the UNSC by declaring that it's refusal to allow him to re-establish the Ottoman Empire was Islamaphobic.

This was backed by a big social media campaign by his supporters under the hashtag #ErdoganVoiceOfTheOppressed. That obviously exposed the various hashtags on Syria - #AleppoUnderSiege being this week's - as nothing more than Turkish government propaganda.

Ironically the following day (21/9/16) a mentally disturbed Turkish man had been whipped up into such a frenzy that he launched a knife attack against the Israeli Embassy in Turkey's capital Ankara. After all if you have any knowledge of the middle-east you would know that the UNSC's Islamaphobia stems from the fact it is part of the global Zionist conspiracy that secretly controls the World(!)

Although I don't think it was planned the Ankara attack certainly raises the point that Erdogan's use of propaganda - the White Helmets are a Turkish group - contributes to the terrorist threat undermining global security. Something that the UNSC should be taking a very strong line against.

Unfortunately with the US having to extract itself from the ceasefire whilst maintaining the diplomatic illusion that a ceasefire is in any way desirable, whilst not rising to the White Helmets bait and backtracking from John Kerry's errant statement amid an extremely hostile media the US was in no position to pursue that issue.

So when yet another Turkish hashtag #MassacreInAleppo appeared on Saturday (24/9/16) the US had little option other than to meekly reward Erdogan by calling yet another UNSC meeting on Sunday (25/9/16). The UK Ambassador actually walked out of that meeting in protest of the stupidity of it all.

By that point the US was itself already protesting loudly. This took the form of the shooting that make-up counter of the Cascade Mall in Washington state on September 23rd (23/9/16). It is alleged that his was carried out but Turkish national Arcan Cetin whose blog is something of a shrine both to ISIL and Hillary Clinton.

The location of the Cascade Mall was a reference to a Cascade Failure which is common in engineering - particularly power supply grids. Essentially a small failure in one node of the system overloads other nodes in the system causing them to fail overloading further nodes. When this happens it is not simply enough to repair the initial failed node - a sort of make up test. Instead you have to replace all the failed nodes in what is often an extremely expensive and complex task.

US President Obama's failure to prevent the Turkish invasion of Syria and certainly his failure to limit it to Jarablus until September 6th (6/9/16) is an example of a Cascade Failure.

There will be no defeat of ISIL until their supply lines with Turkey are cut. This means that the Syrian Democrat Forces (SDF/QSD) need to cross the Euphrates to link up with Afrin sealing Erdogan's Pocket. Prior to the Turkish invasion this meant liberating towns or nodes along ISIL's supply network such as Al-Bab from ISIL. Politically that is relatively simple.

However now that Obama has allowed Erdogan to place members of the United Turkmen Army (UTA) in control of towns like Al-Bab not only do the regular Turkish forces need to be withdraw the SDF then need to liberate those nodes from the UTA. The UTA claim that they are part of the moderate opposition while accusing the SDF of being allied with the Syrian government. Politically that is a much more complex task.

Also the Cetin's immigration status is a reference to Fetullah Gulen. This is who Erdogan accuses of orchestrating the July 15th (15/7/16) rising against his dictatorship. Erdogan has requested that Gulen be extradited from the US to Turkey where he will likely be murdered.

How the US responds to this extradition request is of course entirely dependent on whether Erdogan withdraws his invasion force - including the UTA - from Syria. If he doesn't then Turkey will be at war with the US meaning that the request will be rejected out of hand.

However if Erdogan does choose to maintain diplomatic relations the US will have to consider the evidence against Gulen. Given the quality of the evidence produced by Erdogan in things like the Sledgehammer case it seems likely that the US will need to do a lot of hand-holding for the request to pass the legal bar in the US' politically independent Courts.

Obama has still not called on Erdogan to withdraw his invasion force from Syria - fixing the initial nodal failure - let alone devising a strategy to repair the subsequent failed nodes. At the same time Erdogan is putting pressure on the US to make a decision on the Gulen extradition - a decision that it impossible to make until Erdogan makes a decision about his withdrawal from Syria.

This frustration of Obama's continued abdication of his role as Commander-in-Chief gave rise to last Thursday's (29/9/16) train crash in Hoboken, New Jersey - close to the scenes of the NJ/NY bombings.

The train obviously represents Erdogan's invasion of Syria. It has clearly run-out of track.

With the train going airborne and smashing into the station killing one it should be clear the threat posed to the US by Obama refusing to accept that Erdogan's invasion has come to the end of the road and instead continuing to support Erdogan's maroon beret wearing invasion force.

16:10 on 5/10/16 (UK date).

Operation Featherweight: Month 27, Week 2, Day 5.

The key to defeating the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) has always been cutting the group's supply lines into Turkey.

It is through Turkey that ISIL are supplied with the majority of their fighters, weapons and equipment. In return ISIL export huge of amounts of oil from the oil fields they control back to Turkish oil refineries. That oil is then sold under the supervision of Turkish Energy Minister Berat Albayrak and Bilal Erdogan. They are the son-in-law and son of Turkish President/Prime Minister/Emperor Recep Tayyip Erdogan.

In July of 2015 the anti-ISIL Syrian Democrat Forces (SDF/QSD) liberated the Syrian town of Sarrin. With Sarrin sitting on the eastern banks of the Euphrates River this completed the creation of a roughly 12,000kmsq (7,200msq) buffer-zone between ISIL positions in Syria and the Turkish border. This sits alongside a similar buffer-zone cutting off ISIL's access to Turkey across the entire length of Iraq's border with Turkey.

The next logical step would have been for the SDF to cross the Euphrates River and advance the roughly 120km (70 miles) west to the city of Afrin. This would completely cut ISIL off from their Turkish ally.

Obviously Turkey and in particular Erdogan were extremely opposed to this. 

In response to the liberation of Sarrin Erdogan spent almost the entire second half of 2015 threatening to launch a fullscale military invasion of Syria in order to protect ISIL's supply lines. Planning for this operation reached such an advanced stage that it even had a proposed D-Day of December 16th 2015 (16/12/15). However following a smaller scale invasion of the Bashiqa area of northern Iraq to test the waters Turkey was forced to abandon its invasion plan and on December 19th (19/9/16) and the bulk of Turkish forces were withdrawn from Bashiqa.

In April 2016 the Kurdish People's Protection Units (YPG) which make up the bulk of the SDF advanced from Afrin to liberate the town of Tall Rifat from ISIL. Their advance east to link up with the full SDF forces in Sarrin was only halted when Turkey decided to provide ISIL with artillery support opening fire on the YPG/SDF.

The liberation of Tall Rifat reduced ISIL's supply lines with Turkey to a roughly 100km (60 miles) stretch of border between Azaz/Kilis which sit north of Tall Rifat in the west and the Euphrates River in the east. This area is often referred to either as; "Erdogan's Pocket" or "Garvaghy Road."

In May 2016 the SDF crossed the Euphrates River to liberate the city of Manbij which sits on its western banks. Following a painfully slow operation which saw the SDF sustain significant losses Manbij was finally liberated on August 13th (13/8/16). This seemed to make the complete sealing of Erdogan's Pocket and ISIL's supply lines imminent.

Erdogan was obviously not keen on seeing ISIL's supply lines cut bringing an end to all that lovely oil money flowing into his families bank accounts. So he immediately revived his plan for a formal Turkish invasion of Syria in order to protect ISIL and the group's supply lines.

What US President Barack Obama - as the Commander-in-Chief of the US-led anti-ISIL coalition - obviously should have done is what was done in December 2015;

Tell Erdogan that under absolutely no circumstances would a Turkish invasion of Syria be tolerated. If Turkey continues to support ISIL in any way, shape or form it will seriously jeopardise the nation's relationship with the rest of the coalition and the wider international community.

Unfortunately at that point Obama either lost his nerve or lost sight of the fact that ISIL are the enemy.

So rather than giving a Erdogan a firm "No" ending any talk of a Turkish invasion there and then Obama decided he could manage the situation by giving Erdogan permission for a limited incursion. The incursion was supposed to be strictly limited to the town of Jarablus which is right on the Syria/Turkey border on the western banks on the Euphrates. The incursion was also supposed to be strictly limited in time ending on September 6th (6/9/16) - the day before the start of the 2016 Para-Olympic games.

That Turkish incursion began on August 24th (24/8/16). Literally within hours it became apparent that Erdogan would not be abiding by the limits placed on the incursion by Obama. On the night of the 24th Turkish forces - both regular and irregular - advanced south from Jarablus to attack SDF positions in and around Manbij. These attacks involved the use by Turkey of Chemical Weapons - specifically Sulphur Mustard Gas. Perhaps even more critically they were directed against US Special Operations Forces who were embedded with the SDF in Manbij.

With Obama's restrictions being completely ignored and the Turkish incursion becoming a full and likely permanent it became vital that Obama used his meeting with Erdogan at the G20 Summit on September 4th (4/9/16) to remind Erdogan of the US position. That is that Turkish forces fully withdraw from Syria by September 6th.

Again though Obama either lost his nerve or sight of the fact that ISIL are the enemy.

So again rather than giving Erdogan a firm ultimatum Obama decided that he could manage the situation. Obama decided that it was okay for Erdogan to embed Turkish forces with ISIL provided they didn't attack Manbij. Instead they were to focus their attentions on the town of Al-Bab which sits around 45km (25 miles) south-west of Manbij.

From a strategic perspective this is simply unacceptable. Al-Bab sits on a main road between Turkey  and Raqqa - ISIL's de facto capital in Syria. Therefore allowing Turkey/ISIL to maintain control over Al-Bab renders the liberation of Manbij irrelevant by allowing ISIL's supply line into Turkey to circumvent the city.

Quite apart from the fact that it leaves ISIL's supply lines intact this latest compromise of Obama's meant that there would still be intense fighting during the Para-Olympic games. This goes against the tradition of there being a global truce during Olympic and Para-Olympic games. It is a particular issue this year because many felt that the games should have been cancelled this year as they were in 1940 and 1944 due to the war.

Desperate to avoid taking responsibility for an increase in fighting during the games Obama then proceeded to secure a truce - any sort of truce - in Syria. With the games coinciding with the Feast of Sacrifice (Eid al-Adha) this struck me as a needless effort because it was extremely likely that a short term truce would take place even if no-one officially called it such.

However Obama was clearly desperate to take credit for negotiating a truce.

Having been banned from the Para-Olympics over their opposition to ISIL and with an election coming up Russia was more than happy to help Obama grab his headlines. After all there is no worse punishment you can inflict on America and the west than giving it exactly what it is demanding in Syria.

Alongside steering them to Manbij a key element of Obama's attempts to manage the Turkish invasion was to try to embed US Special Operations Forces (SOF) within the Turkish regular and irregular forces. As with all other elements of Obama's attempts to contain the threat of Erdogan/ISIL this rapidly and dramatically collapsed. On September 16th (16/9/16) Turkish irregular forces expelled the US SOF's from the town of Al-Rai - roughly 30km (20 miles) north of Al-Bab.

Disguised as members of an ambulance crew these armed men screamed; "Death to America" whilst calling the US troops dogs, crusaders and pigs as they threatened to kill them. This is pretty much the standard coverage the US receives in Turkey's extremely closely controlled media these days.

Whilst this was going on the reality of the ceasefire they had secured was slowly starting to dawn on the US.

There are currently upwards of 7000 individual armed groups operating within Syria. However excluding Syrian government forces and the SDF they can really be divided into two main groups; ISIL and the Army of Conquest/Jaish al-Fatah.

The Army of Conquest itself is made up of four main groups. 

The largest of these is the Al Nusra Front/Jabhat al-Nusra (JAF). They are Al Qaeda's affiliate in Syria. However with support for Al Qaeda being banned by a host of international laws - UN Security Council (UNSC) resolutions etc - and a host of US federal laws they have recently changed their name to the Front for the Conquest of the Levant/Jabhat Fatah al-Sham. It is widely recognised that this name change was simply an attempt to circumvent sanctions against Al Qaeda and the group is still considered an active part of Al Qaeda.

The second largest group within the Army of Conquest is the Islamic Movement of the Freemen of the Levant/Harakat Ahrar ash-Sham al-Islamiyya (Ahrar al-Sham). As their name suggests their ideology is the same as ISIL. To create an ethnically and religiously pure Sunni Islamic state within the Levant region.

A third large group within the Army of Conquest is the Syrian Turkmen Brigades/United Turkmen Army (STB/UTA). With divisions taking their names from famous Ottoman Sultans such as Mehmed the Conqueror the UTA are irregular Turkish forces fighting illegally within Syria. Part of the Paramilitary wing of the Turkish Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) their objective is to re-establish the Ottoman Empire - the last Islamist Caliphate.

A smaller but significant group within the Army of Conquest is the Army of Islam/Jaish al-Islam (JAI). They are extremely nasty. Not only do they share ISIL's ideology in the past JAI have been known to execute members of ISIL for not being extreme enough.

The Army of Conquest has a long history of collaborating with ISIL. Most notably during the 2015 Northwestern offensive. This was co-ordinated with ISIL in order to stretch Syrian government forces to allow ISIL to capture Palmyra in May 2015. Under instruction from Turkey the Army of Conquest has also frequently co-ordinated their actions with ISIL within Erdogan's Pocket with the towns of Marea and Cobanbey being passed back and forth between the groups on command from Ankara.

It is the Army of Conquest who currently occupy the east of Aleppo City. It is also who people are talking about when they refer to; "The moderate opposition."

The Army of Conquest group that is particularly active in east Aleppo City is the Movement of Nour al-Din al-Zenki/Harakat Nour al-Din al-Zenki group. They take their name from a Turkish atabeg (roughly Lord) who ruled what is now Aleppo province in the 11th Century.It was a photographer from Harakat Nour al-Din al-Zenki that produced those propaganda images of Omran Daqneesh that the western media seemed to get itself overexcited about.

Despite being prone to beheading children they consider infidels, using children for propaganda purposes and being allied with Al Qaeda Harakat Nour al-Din al-Zenki has in the past been supplied with weapons - specifically TOW anti-tank missiles - by the US.

Overthrowing the Syrian government or even putting in place a long term ceasefire within Syria means granting sanctuary to the Army of Conquest and their allies ISIL. 

Due to the extremely violent nature of these groups and their desire to attack western nations such as the US such an idea runs completely against the interests of the US and other western nations. So much so that the US actually has specific Federal laws preventing Obama - or any other President - from doing such a thing.

So great is the threat of this type of behaviour to international peace and security that the global community - through the UN Charter - has passed laws making it completely illegal and something that no nation can call for.

With the reality of the extent to which Russia had decided to punish the US combined with Obama's total failure to manage the threat posed by Erdogan the US then proceeded to have something resembling a nervous breakdown.

A key element of this was the series of bombings the US experienced in New Jersey and New York City between September 17th (17/9/16) and September 19th (19/9/16).

I should start by making clear that the alleged attacker Ahmad Khan Rahami is most certainly an Islamist terrorist and his intention was to cause substantial loss of life. However as he was carrying out his attacks he seems to have been under extremely close surveillance.

So when Rahami planted a bomb along the route of the Seaside Park 5km race the surveillance team were on hand to call in a bomb threat delaying the start of the race. When Rahami planted a bomb on a New York street the surveillance team were on hand to put into in a steel container meaning that you got the bang but not the bodies.

'Homeless' people are particularly good for this type of surveillance. After all people seem to spend an awful lot of effort trying to avoid noticing homeless people in the first place.

Explaining what the US was trying to achieve through these bombings is rather difficult. In part that is because the whole thing stank of panic with the US itself seeming unsure of what it was trying to say. Plus occurring during the Para-Olympics it seemed to be done in that spirit of raising issues for discussion rather than making definitive statements.

The style of the bombing using pressure cooker bombs and targeting road races was very reminiscent of the 2013 Boston Marathon bombing. That itself was intended as many things but with the attackers coming from Dagestan it was intended as a threat to Russia that the US would arrange for the 2014 Sochi games to be attacked if Russia didn't drop its opposition to ISIL. 

Within Olympic circles that obviously remains a contentious topic. Particularly with the US topping the medal table at the 2016 ISIL games.

The specific road race being targeted in Seaside Park was to benefit US Marines. In protest over Turkey's invasion of Syria the UK raised the story of a UK Royal Marine being charged with terrorism offences. The natural enemy of the Royal Marine is the UK Parachute regiment sometimes known as; "The Para's." These are the equivalent of the US's 101st or 82nd Airborne divisions. They wear the same maroon beret as the very special forces Turkey has deployed to support ISIL.

In response to the Turkish invasion the Obama administration spoke of its desire to protect marine life - as in animals that live in water - at all costs. This gave a lot of people the distinct impression that Obama simply did not understand what was being said to him. In response to the bombings the UK blamed a high profile double murder on; "Mistaken Identity."

The New York City bombings took place in an area of Manhattan known as "Chelsea." This could be taken as a reference to Hillary Clinton's daughter Chelsea or the Russian owned English football club Chelsea which in turn could be a reference to me. However again there was no definitive statement.

The third bombing took place in Elizabeth, New Jersey. The UK Queen is of course Queen Elizabeth II. Following the discovery of this bomb a bomb disposal robot was destroyed when it detonated the device. Bomb disposal robots and robots in general were big talking points during the games.

The overriding image of the NJ/NYC bombings was of the US under increased threat of terrorist attack. That threat will only increase the longer the war in Syria and Iraq drags on. Particularly if Obama is able to achieve his aim of creating sanctuaries for ISIL and the Army of Conquest in east Aleppo City.

Rather proving the point that the US is at increased risk of terror attack a second terror attack actually took place on September 17th. This time it was a stabbing attack at a shopping mall in St Cloud, Minnesota. 

The attacker who was the only one killed in the attack was a refugee from Obama's fatherland Kenya. The attack also occurred at the Crossroads Center. I think it is fair to say that Obama's Syria strategy is at a bit of a crossroads. However I think that despite these references unlike the NJ/NYC bombings this was one of the lone-wolf attacks that the US had failed to identify and place under surveillance.

Not only had the previous week seen the Feast of Sacrifice it also saw the annual Hajj pilgrimage to Mecca. Therefore as with Ramadan it was likely that the days after would see an increase in violence just as surely as the week saw an unspoken ceasefire. Having a relatively large ethnically Somali and Kenyan Muslim population otherwise white, polite borderline Canadian Minnesota is actually the US' capital for Islamist terrorism.

The alleged NJ/NYC attacker Ahmad Khan Rahami is originally from Afghanistan and is a member of the Pashto - sometimes referred to as "East Iranians" - ethnic group. This obviously referenced the June 12th (12/6/16) Islamist terror attack against the Pulse Nightclub in Orlando, Florida in which 49 people were murdered by an ethnic Pashto.

Taking to the floor of Congress waving rainbow flag coloured placards calling for more gun control the Democrats seemed to view that attack as a perfectly normal part of Hillary Clinton's election campaign.

Saturday the 17th (17/9/16) was a particularly busy day. Apart from the terror attacks in New Jersey, New York, City and Minnesota it was also the day that the US decided to deploy Combined Joint Task Force: Operation Inherent Resolve (CJTFOIR) as ISIL's air force against the Syrian government.

For several hours and despite repeated warnings from Russia on that Saturday CJTFOIR aircraft attacked Syrian government troops in their positions around Deir-ez-Zour airport. This sits around 130km (80 miles) south-east of Raqqa along the Euphrates River. 

The purpose of the CJTFOIR onslaught was to provide close air support to allow ISIL to take control of a strategic hill overlooking the airport. This creates a very real risk that the Syria government will be unable to re-supply its forces in the city causing it to fall to ISIL.

The reason for the US to do this was really threefold;

Firstly it was to do something so outrageous that Russia would have no choice other than to back out of the ceasefire digging Obama out of the mess he'd got himself in. Coming the day before the Russian election this was never going to happen. The frankly childish response US Ambassador to the UN Samantha Power gave to the UNSC session Russia called in response only contributed to the sense of an administration that has lost touch with reality and is flailing wildly out of control.

Secondly the attack was carried out by a number of nations in the CJTFOIR coalition. However it was planned and led by the US. That obviously poses the question within the coalition of whether Obama can any longer be considered a fit person to lead CJTFOIR.

Finally all the aircraft involved flew from Iraq. Therefore when Obama says that he can't tell Erdogan "No" because the loss of Incirilk airbase in Turkey will cripple CJTFOIR's operation he is simply lying. 

This of course all occured against the backdrop of the annual opening of the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) which is possibly the worst time imaginable.

Sadly I will have to pick that up at a later date.

20:05 on 3/10/16 (UK date).