I'm not sure I want to be writing this. Let alone going into too much detail.
Sadly though there are some amongst us who are incapable of picking up on hints - both subtle and not so subtle. Instead they seem to need to have things explained to them really slowly and really clearly. Ideally with lots of pictures.
Key to the defeat of the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) is the cutting of their supply lines into Turkey - their main sponsor. Since the summer of 2015 that supply line has been reduced to an area roughly 100km (60 miles) wide. This stretches from Azaz in the west to the Euphrates River in the east and is referred to as either "Erdogan's Pocket" or "Garvaghy Road."
Certainly since the eastern border of this supply line has come under pressure in the east around the Tishrin Dam and the city of Manbij Turkish President/Prime Minister/Emperor Recep Tayyip Erdogan has been desperate to invade this area. The intention being to reinforce it with Turkish tanks and troops in order to keep supplies flowing back and forth between Turkey and ISIL forces in both Aleppo City and the group's de facto Syrian capital Raqqa.
That Turkey is able to intervene in Syria or anywhere else to support ISIL is not something that Erdogan should even be able to entertain. However on August 25th (25/8/16) the US gave Turkey permission to launch such an invasion. This permission was given on the strict understanding that Turkey would limit itself to a very narrow area of operations and all Turkish forces - both regular and irregular - would be withdraw from Syria by a pre-arranged date.
In little more than a day Turkish forces had completely disregarded their narrow area of operations. As such US President Obama's meeting with Erdogan on Sunday (5/9/16) at the G20 Summit was seen as critical. It would be here that Obama would chastise Erdogan for disregarding the agreement a secure an enforceable pledge that Turkish forces would withdraw by the agreed date.
It shocked everyone then when Obama completely failed in this task and appears to have given Erdogan his full backing to support ISIL indefinitely.
Obama has attempted to justify this unforgivable decision by claiming that if he'd told Erdogan to end his support for ISIL Erdogan would start a trade war between the US and Turkey that would destroy the US economy.
That Erdogan would try and bully the US using trade is a reasonable assumption. After all Erdogan has previously used trade to try and bully other nations. However that track record gives us a clear indication of how successful Erdogan has been in those efforts.
In 2010 Turkey sent a flotilla of militants to attempt to break the naval blockade of Gaza imposed to stop arms smuggling. In response to Israel stopping that flotilla Erdogan announced that Turkey was breaking off all economic and political ties with Israel. At the time bilateral trade between Turkey and Israel was around USD6bn per year.
This Turkish economic and political blockade was accompanied by an increase in arms shipments to militant groups in Gaza. This caused Israel to fight two wars in the autumn of 2012 and the summer of 2014.
Despite this Israel - a nation of just 8.5 million - did not collapse either economically nor politically.
In June of this year Erdogan was forced to back down and restore economic and political links with Israel.
In November of 2015 Turkey shot down a Russian Su-24 over Syria. In response Erdogan announced that it was breaking off economic and political ties with Russia. At the time bilateral trade between Turkey and Russia was worth around USD23bn per year.
The Russian economy of course was already struggling due to a combination of low oil prices and the sanctions the US had imposed over Russia's opposition to ISIL.
Despite this though Turkey couldn't sustain a trade war with Russia for more than a few months. So also in June Erdogan backed down and restored economic and political links with Russia. This included a full personal apology by Erdogan to Russian President Putin for shooting down the aircraft.
Turkey is the US 34th largest trading partner with trade between the two nations valued at just USD1.8bn. To put that in perspective total US trade is valued at around US2.3tn of which trade with Turkey is around 0.07%. However trade with the US makes up around 0.1% of Turkey's entire economy.
Therefore it is abundantly clear that even if Erdogan did not back down a trade war between the US and Turkey would have a negligible impact on the US economy but a significant impact on the Turkish economy.
Added to that if Erdogan wanted to start a trade war to support ISIL they'd be plenty of other nations queuing up to impose sanctions against Turkey. It only seems to be Obama's protection of Erdogan that is stopping them.
So simply put Obama's reasoning for allowing Erdogan to continue supporting ISIL just does not hold water.
I assume that Obama must be aware of this. Therefore I can only conclude that Obama himself continues to support ISIL.
14:20 on 5/9/16 (UK date).
Edited at around 18:45 on 5/9/16 (UK date) to add;
As the day has progressed we've got more lame and empty excuses from the US. The latest being that the US can't tell Erdogan to stop supporting ISIL because that would undermine the US and Turkey's unity in fighting ISIL.
That exposes a fundamental misunderstanding of both the English language and diplomacy as a concept.
Officially at least the US is opposed to ISIL. However Erdogan fully supports ISIL. Therefore the US and Erdogan cannot cooperate on the ISIL because their objectives are the polar opposite of each other and in direct conflict.
Therefore in order for the US and Turkey to cooperate on the ISIL issue one of two things must happen.
Either the US reverses its position and adopts Erdogan's position of supporting ISIL. With ISIL being wholly committed to the destruction of the US and its values along with the values of its traditional allies in Europe that is simply not possible.
Alternatively US brings Turkey around to its position of opposing ISIL. The process of bringing Turkey around to the US' position on ISIL is what is known as diplomacy.
As such Obama's conduct this weekend represents not only a complete failure of US diplomacy but a personal abdication of responsibility by Obama.
If experience has taught us one thing it is that when diplomacy fails in this way war becomes inevitable.
Monday, 5 September 2016
Friday, 2 September 2016
The 2016 ISIL Games: Closing Ceremony Pt.4
This should be read as a direct continuation of Part 3; http://watchitdie.blogspot.co.uk/2016/08/the-2016-isil-games-closing-ceremony-pt3.html
A Moment of Reflection: It has become something of a tradition that at least one ceremony features a short sequence that allows us to reflect on those that we have lost.
Generally this sequence is not officially dedicated to anyone in particular. This leaves you as the viewer free to use this time to reflect on loved ones you personally may have lost. However in this particular ceremony I think that many people's minds will have been drawn to Stefan Henze - the 35 year old German Canoe Slalom coach who was killed in a car crash in Rio on August 12th (12/8/16).
Coming on the 40th anniversary of the massacre at the 1972 Munich Olympics the moment of reflection in the 2012 London games was particularly poignant. However the hosts did rather spoil it by seeming to imply that the 52 people killed in the July 7th 2005 (7/7/05) terror attacks on London, UK were somehow more important. Those attacks occurred of course the day after London was awarded the 2012 games.
This particular sequence was inspired by the Portuguese word; "Saudade" which describes a sense of deep melancholy for those who have died, moved away or are simply missing.
Therefore it seemed intended to invoke memories of the some 80,000 people across Brazil, Argentina, Chile, Bolivia, Paraguay, Uruguay, Columbia, Peru and Venezuela who simply disappeared during "Operation Condor" which was conducted by America and the military dictatorships it backed across Latin America during the so-called "Dirty War" against Communism between 1968 and 1989.
Probably of the most famous of those affected by Saudade caused during the Dirty War are the so-called "Mothers of Plaza de Mayo." These were the mothers of the disappeared who gathered week-in-week-out in the Plaza de Mayo in Buenos Aires, Argentina outside the Presidential Palace of dictator Jorge Rafael Videla to demand to know what had happened to their children.
The NATO "Gladio" strategy that brought Videla to power in Argentina is of course the same one that created the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) and their paramilitary wing the "Grey Wolves" in Turkey. Perhaps inspired by the ceremony on August 30th (30/8/15) Turkey called on its supporters to launch a social media day of action for Syria's "disappeared." I suspect they rather missed the point.
During this sequence which was essentially darkness, sombre music and silence the word "Saudade" was repeatedly projected onto the area floor.
This projection also included lines and shapes that were intended to reference the stars and constellations of space. In turn this invoked the religious concept of Heaven. Even those without a religious concept of heaven may well find that staring out into the vast expanse of the universe gives them some consolation from their grief.
The way that these words, lines and shapes also seemed to invoke the way that chemical formula are written down.
Within astrophysics it is established that neither energy nor matter can be created nor destroyed - the famous E=MC^2 equation. Therefore all those people who have lived or will ever live continue to exist in some form within the universe. I personally find that comforting.
There is a particularly branch of Chemistry concerned with the way that energy transfers into the matter that makes up all the organisms around us known as "Quantum Chemistry." That obviously references China's Quantum Satellite "QUESS" that was referenced earlier in the ceremony.
Probably the World's most famous Quantum Chemist is German Head of Government (Chancellor) Angela Merkel. The obvious intelligence that it required for her to achieve her PHD in such a complex field obviously makes her complete inability to respond to Europe's migration crisis all the harder to explain.
For me this entire sequence was completely ruined by the fact that the British team had been seated almost centre stage between the camera and the action. They of course chose to wear these rather silly shoes with bright flashing lights in them as a reference to the current fashion for smart fabrics.
So during this very sombre sequence the British athletes were all sitting there - front and centre - looking like they were at some terrible youth club disco.
I'm sure though that Britain's positioning at the top of the medal table at the ISIL games was entirely complementary though.
At around 20:45 on 2/9/16 (UK date) I seem to have run out of talent for such melancholy so I'll pick this up once the weekend is done.
Edited at around 15:25 on 5/9/16 (UK date) to add;
As the moment of silence itself drew to a close performers in oversized black lace dresses started to take to the arena floor. In many cultures the wearing of black lace - especially as a face veil - is considered a sign of mourning. Particularly by women who are mourning the husbands or children that they have lost.
One of the largest producers of high quality lace - of all colours - is Brazil's old colonial power Portugal. This was one of the many industries imported from Portugal to Brazil. Up until the 19th century this lace making was done by slave woman. It was one of the concessions leading up to the abolishment of slavery that these women were allowed to use their skills to make lace at home which they were allowed to sell on the streets during their free time.
This was signified by a black woman sitting in the centre of the arena working away at one of the bobbins used to make lace.
The sequence ended with an intricate black lace design being projected onto the centre of the arena floor. The complexity of this design was obviously in keeping with the geometry theme of the Opening Ceremony.
I suppose though you could also interprete it as a reference to the World map at the centre of the United Nations (UN) flag. Unlike commonly used maps this is drawn from the perspective of being above the North Pole.
I though took it as a reference to a tattoo I've got on my back that played such a large part in the 2012 ceremonies. This tattoo is of a Pict tribal design known as an "Ulbster Cross." You can no doubt find many examples of it on the Internet. However it is an intricate circular design featuring interwoven knotworks. It has four points rather like a compass giving it a cross shape.
Claykickers: This next sequence lifted the sense of Saudade with an exhibition of Brazil's "Fomo" style of dance by a group called Parabello.
Although it has clear links with ballet and capoeira Fomo also has influences of Celtic dance styles - particularly with the music being used in this example. Being Scottish the BBC commentator Hazel Irvine likened this to Scottish Highland dancing. However I think an Irish person would liken it to traditional Irish dancing.
This obviously touched on the topic of the ancient tribes of Britain that was such a major theme of the 2012 Para-Olympic Closing Ceremony. This topic is particularly relevant to this year's hosts because amongst all their other ethnic groups Brazil actually has one of the largest ethnically Welsh, Welsh speaking populations outside of Wales. Along with the Irish and Scottish the Welsh are one of the nationalities that frequently get lumped together as; "Celtic."
I think the globally most famous example of Irish dancing is the stageshow "Riverdance." The rain had covered the stage in a thin layer of water giving the impression that Parabello were literally dancing in a river. Being fully aware that these Summer games were actually taking place in the depths of Rio's winter I suspect the show organisers were hoping for at least a little bit of rain.
As Parabello performed on stage the arena floor was filled with performers dressed up as clay figurines who began to dance with each other.
Officially this was a reference to the work of famous Brazilian sculptor Vitalino Perira dos Santos. Some of his work is on display at Rio's Museu Nacional de Belas Artes. As I'm sure these games have inspired you to visit Brazil you may wish to make a trip to that museum part of you upcoming holiday to Rio.
However this spectacle of clay figurines made me think of the Golem of Jewish folklaw. As with all fairytales there isn't a definitive version of the Golem story. However almost all of them talk of a clay figurine brought to life. People would write instructions on a piece of paper and drop them into the Golem's mouth. The Golem which had no mind of its own would then carry out those instructions often protecting people from evil forces.
During the 2012 London games the UK did rather seem to view me as its very own Golem. They would simply raise so issue for me and I would then go off unthinking and talk about it unquestionably doing their bidding. That idea didn't work out so well for the UK.
During their dancing these clay figures formed large "X" formations. This again made me think of my tattoo. This was done by a Brazilian artist under the supervision of my Israeli/British dual national ex-girlfriend although I think that's a little too formal a description.
The last I saw of the pair they were both heading off to Brazil for the Rio Carnival. However I have since heard very strong rumours that this ex returned to the UK before getting sucked down into Crack Cocaine addiction and prostitution although I haven't verified that for myself.
So how's that for slut shaming on a grand scale.
The kicks of the Fomo dancers along with all the clay made me think of the term; "Claykicker."
A big theme in the run-up to these games has been Brazil's attempts to tackle its problems with child sexual abuse and child prostitution that has made it a top destination for child sex tourists.
Child sexual abuse is of course something of an obsession for the UK seeming to feature in every BBC TV show made in 2015. One in particular that was discussed a lot at the 2016 Eurovision Song Contest is "Peaky Blinders."
The what I supposed you would term the origin story for Peaky Blinders is that some of the Shelby crime family served together in the British Army during the First World War. Specifically they served in engineering units that dug secret tunnels stretching under no-mans land beneath enemy trenches. These tunnels were then packed with explosives and used to blow up the enemy's trenches. These units were nicknamed Claykickers.
This tactic of digging long tunnels under enemy positions and then blowing them up has enjoyed something of a resurgence in the current war in Syria.
Along with the use of trench warfare and chemical weapons it is yet another sign of how that war is dragging us back to a time of Empire and constant war that few these days will remember and fewer still will want to return to.
16:35 on 5/9/16 (UK date).
A Moment of Reflection: It has become something of a tradition that at least one ceremony features a short sequence that allows us to reflect on those that we have lost.
Generally this sequence is not officially dedicated to anyone in particular. This leaves you as the viewer free to use this time to reflect on loved ones you personally may have lost. However in this particular ceremony I think that many people's minds will have been drawn to Stefan Henze - the 35 year old German Canoe Slalom coach who was killed in a car crash in Rio on August 12th (12/8/16).
Coming on the 40th anniversary of the massacre at the 1972 Munich Olympics the moment of reflection in the 2012 London games was particularly poignant. However the hosts did rather spoil it by seeming to imply that the 52 people killed in the July 7th 2005 (7/7/05) terror attacks on London, UK were somehow more important. Those attacks occurred of course the day after London was awarded the 2012 games.
This particular sequence was inspired by the Portuguese word; "Saudade" which describes a sense of deep melancholy for those who have died, moved away or are simply missing.
Therefore it seemed intended to invoke memories of the some 80,000 people across Brazil, Argentina, Chile, Bolivia, Paraguay, Uruguay, Columbia, Peru and Venezuela who simply disappeared during "Operation Condor" which was conducted by America and the military dictatorships it backed across Latin America during the so-called "Dirty War" against Communism between 1968 and 1989.
Probably of the most famous of those affected by Saudade caused during the Dirty War are the so-called "Mothers of Plaza de Mayo." These were the mothers of the disappeared who gathered week-in-week-out in the Plaza de Mayo in Buenos Aires, Argentina outside the Presidential Palace of dictator Jorge Rafael Videla to demand to know what had happened to their children.
The NATO "Gladio" strategy that brought Videla to power in Argentina is of course the same one that created the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) and their paramilitary wing the "Grey Wolves" in Turkey. Perhaps inspired by the ceremony on August 30th (30/8/15) Turkey called on its supporters to launch a social media day of action for Syria's "disappeared." I suspect they rather missed the point.
During this sequence which was essentially darkness, sombre music and silence the word "Saudade" was repeatedly projected onto the area floor.
This projection also included lines and shapes that were intended to reference the stars and constellations of space. In turn this invoked the religious concept of Heaven. Even those without a religious concept of heaven may well find that staring out into the vast expanse of the universe gives them some consolation from their grief.
The way that these words, lines and shapes also seemed to invoke the way that chemical formula are written down.
Within astrophysics it is established that neither energy nor matter can be created nor destroyed - the famous E=MC^2 equation. Therefore all those people who have lived or will ever live continue to exist in some form within the universe. I personally find that comforting.
There is a particularly branch of Chemistry concerned with the way that energy transfers into the matter that makes up all the organisms around us known as "Quantum Chemistry." That obviously references China's Quantum Satellite "QUESS" that was referenced earlier in the ceremony.
Probably the World's most famous Quantum Chemist is German Head of Government (Chancellor) Angela Merkel. The obvious intelligence that it required for her to achieve her PHD in such a complex field obviously makes her complete inability to respond to Europe's migration crisis all the harder to explain.
For me this entire sequence was completely ruined by the fact that the British team had been seated almost centre stage between the camera and the action. They of course chose to wear these rather silly shoes with bright flashing lights in them as a reference to the current fashion for smart fabrics.
So during this very sombre sequence the British athletes were all sitting there - front and centre - looking like they were at some terrible youth club disco.
I'm sure though that Britain's positioning at the top of the medal table at the ISIL games was entirely complementary though.
At around 20:45 on 2/9/16 (UK date) I seem to have run out of talent for such melancholy so I'll pick this up once the weekend is done.
Edited at around 15:25 on 5/9/16 (UK date) to add;
As the moment of silence itself drew to a close performers in oversized black lace dresses started to take to the arena floor. In many cultures the wearing of black lace - especially as a face veil - is considered a sign of mourning. Particularly by women who are mourning the husbands or children that they have lost.
One of the largest producers of high quality lace - of all colours - is Brazil's old colonial power Portugal. This was one of the many industries imported from Portugal to Brazil. Up until the 19th century this lace making was done by slave woman. It was one of the concessions leading up to the abolishment of slavery that these women were allowed to use their skills to make lace at home which they were allowed to sell on the streets during their free time.
This was signified by a black woman sitting in the centre of the arena working away at one of the bobbins used to make lace.
The sequence ended with an intricate black lace design being projected onto the centre of the arena floor. The complexity of this design was obviously in keeping with the geometry theme of the Opening Ceremony.
I suppose though you could also interprete it as a reference to the World map at the centre of the United Nations (UN) flag. Unlike commonly used maps this is drawn from the perspective of being above the North Pole.
I though took it as a reference to a tattoo I've got on my back that played such a large part in the 2012 ceremonies. This tattoo is of a Pict tribal design known as an "Ulbster Cross." You can no doubt find many examples of it on the Internet. However it is an intricate circular design featuring interwoven knotworks. It has four points rather like a compass giving it a cross shape.
Claykickers: This next sequence lifted the sense of Saudade with an exhibition of Brazil's "Fomo" style of dance by a group called Parabello.
Although it has clear links with ballet and capoeira Fomo also has influences of Celtic dance styles - particularly with the music being used in this example. Being Scottish the BBC commentator Hazel Irvine likened this to Scottish Highland dancing. However I think an Irish person would liken it to traditional Irish dancing.
This obviously touched on the topic of the ancient tribes of Britain that was such a major theme of the 2012 Para-Olympic Closing Ceremony. This topic is particularly relevant to this year's hosts because amongst all their other ethnic groups Brazil actually has one of the largest ethnically Welsh, Welsh speaking populations outside of Wales. Along with the Irish and Scottish the Welsh are one of the nationalities that frequently get lumped together as; "Celtic."
I think the globally most famous example of Irish dancing is the stageshow "Riverdance." The rain had covered the stage in a thin layer of water giving the impression that Parabello were literally dancing in a river. Being fully aware that these Summer games were actually taking place in the depths of Rio's winter I suspect the show organisers were hoping for at least a little bit of rain.
As Parabello performed on stage the arena floor was filled with performers dressed up as clay figurines who began to dance with each other.
Officially this was a reference to the work of famous Brazilian sculptor Vitalino Perira dos Santos. Some of his work is on display at Rio's Museu Nacional de Belas Artes. As I'm sure these games have inspired you to visit Brazil you may wish to make a trip to that museum part of you upcoming holiday to Rio.
However this spectacle of clay figurines made me think of the Golem of Jewish folklaw. As with all fairytales there isn't a definitive version of the Golem story. However almost all of them talk of a clay figurine brought to life. People would write instructions on a piece of paper and drop them into the Golem's mouth. The Golem which had no mind of its own would then carry out those instructions often protecting people from evil forces.
During the 2012 London games the UK did rather seem to view me as its very own Golem. They would simply raise so issue for me and I would then go off unthinking and talk about it unquestionably doing their bidding. That idea didn't work out so well for the UK.
During their dancing these clay figures formed large "X" formations. This again made me think of my tattoo. This was done by a Brazilian artist under the supervision of my Israeli/British dual national ex-girlfriend although I think that's a little too formal a description.
The last I saw of the pair they were both heading off to Brazil for the Rio Carnival. However I have since heard very strong rumours that this ex returned to the UK before getting sucked down into Crack Cocaine addiction and prostitution although I haven't verified that for myself.
So how's that for slut shaming on a grand scale.
The kicks of the Fomo dancers along with all the clay made me think of the term; "Claykicker."
A big theme in the run-up to these games has been Brazil's attempts to tackle its problems with child sexual abuse and child prostitution that has made it a top destination for child sex tourists.
Child sexual abuse is of course something of an obsession for the UK seeming to feature in every BBC TV show made in 2015. One in particular that was discussed a lot at the 2016 Eurovision Song Contest is "Peaky Blinders."
The what I supposed you would term the origin story for Peaky Blinders is that some of the Shelby crime family served together in the British Army during the First World War. Specifically they served in engineering units that dug secret tunnels stretching under no-mans land beneath enemy trenches. These tunnels were then packed with explosives and used to blow up the enemy's trenches. These units were nicknamed Claykickers.
This tactic of digging long tunnels under enemy positions and then blowing them up has enjoyed something of a resurgence in the current war in Syria.
Along with the use of trench warfare and chemical weapons it is yet another sign of how that war is dragging us back to a time of Empire and constant war that few these days will remember and fewer still will want to return to.
16:35 on 5/9/16 (UK date).
Thursday, 1 September 2016
Operation Featherweight: Month 26, Week 2, Day 3.
Last Wednesday (25/8/16) Turkey launched an invasion of Syria focused on the
border town of Jarablus using a mixture of both regular and irregular
troops.
Turkish President/Prime Minister/Emperor Recep Tayyip Erdogan was quite clear that this operation - named "Euphrates Shield" - was protect Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) positions west of the Euphrates River.
This would be done by defeating the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF/QSD) who had liberated the city of Manbij from ISIL on August 13th (13/8/16). Manbij sits around 35km (20 miles) south of Jarablus on the western bank of the Euphrates.
With Turkish troops, tanks and aircraft rushing to their aid ISIL obviously celebrated this invasion. On Friday (27/8/16) they released in which they executed Sunni Kurds, Sunni Arabs and Shia Arabs.
Entitled "The Nations Are Uniting Against You" this was intended to show that through Turkey ISIL now had the full backing of the World powers as it set out to cleanse the Levant of all those groups and more.
Alarmingly what has become clearer since then is that ISIL were not merely celebrating Erdogan's invasion. The two forces were actually operating in concert with each other.
It of course took the Turkish force less then 12 hours to fully liberate the town of Jarablus. That is because the roughly 1,400 ISIL fighters stationed there simply left having received advanced warning of the arrival of Turkish and knowing that they had nothing to fear from ceding territory to those Turkish forces.
This is far from the first time we have seen this type of coordination between ISIL and Turkey.
Back in August 2015 Erdogan wanted to invade Syria to defend ISIL's supply lines in an area between the town of Marea to the west and the Euphrates to the east. This area is referred to as either; "Erdogan's Pocket" or "Garvaghy Road."
Erdogan decided the best way to do this was to allow ISIL to move right up to the Turkish border so he could claim the invasion was needed to eliminate the ISIL threat. So Erdogan simply instructed the Al Qaeda-led Army of Conquest/Jaish al-Fatah (JAF) coalition to cede Marea to ISIL without a fight.
In December 2015 it had become increasingly apparent that Erdogan would not be given permission to invade Syria and the SDF had crossed the Euphrates at the Tishrin Dam. So Erdogan simply ordered ISIL to cede Marea to irregular Turkish forces known as the Syrian Turkmen Brigades (STB). ISIL promptly complied.
In April of 2016 Erdogan attempted to use the STB to attack the SDF from the west in order to protect Garvaghy Road. So he ordered ISIL to cede control of the town of Cobanbey to the STB. This sits roughly 45km (30 miles) west of Jarablus right on Syria's border with Turkey. Obviously ISIL immediately complied.
It was then made clear to Erdogan that under no circumstances would the STB be allowed to advance to Jarablus in order to attack the SDF. So Erdogan simply ordered the STB to cede control of Cobanbey back to ISIL.
Not only did ISIL coordinate the handing over Jarablus to Turkish forces they used it as an opportunity to launch a series of offensives against the SDF.
The first of these came against the town as Al-Shadadi. This sits roughly 50km (30 miles) from Syria's border with Iraq around 100km (60 miles) north-west of Deir er-Zour and roughly 50km (30 miles) south of the city of Hasakah. Fortunately this attack was repelled by Friday (27/8/16).
The much more serious ISIL attack was launched against SDF positions in Manbij. Following the handover of Jarablus Turkish forces began advancing south towards the SDF controlled city of Manbij being stopped around the village of Bir al-Kusa which sits roughly 13km (8 miles) south of Jarablus. At roughly the same time ISIL launched an offensive against SDF positions in and around Manbij from the south.
This placed the city and the SDF in the jaws of a classic military pincer movement. It showed the clear coordination between Turkey and ISIL with Turkish forces forming the northern jaw of the pincer and ISIL its southern jaw.
What the US-led coalition - Combined Joint Task Force: Operation Inherent Resolve (CJTFOIR) should have done is deliver a swift uppercut to this offensive in the form of intense airstrikes to the southern jaw. If this prevented Turkey from providing air cover to the northern jaw. Well that would just help to underline to Erdogan where he sits in the CJTFOIR pecking order.
Unfortunately the US did what is always seems to do these days - call a Time Out and try to preserve the status quo. Even if that status quo is trench warfare and genocide.
Under CJTFOIR supervision the SDF and Turkish forces agreed a temporary truce halting the Turkish advance on Manbij on Tuesday (30/8/16) morning. Turkey denies this.
At the same time the US has been trying to coax the Turkish forces to move west and attack the town of Al-Bab. This sits around 40km (25 miles) south-west of Manbij. With Al-Bab being a critical supply ISIL node not only for Raqqa - their de facto capital in Syria - but also Aleppo City you would no more want it under Turkish control than you would Manbij.
While the US was trying to do this things got even more embarrassing for them on Tuesday (30/8/16) at the other end of Garvaghy Road. In Aleppo City Russian airstrikes killed ISIL commander Abu Muhammad al-Adnani.
Although it might seem hard to believe before joining ISIL al-Adnani was Al Qaeda's poet in residence. This way with words and oratory style meant that not only was al-Adnani part of the inner-circle of ISIL's leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi he was the group's main spokesman and propagandist.
In the wake of the July 14th (14/7/16) terror attack in Nice, France many media commentators made reference to an ISIL message to its supporters instructing them to carry out terror attacks. This told them that if they didn't have a gun they should use a knife and if they didn't have a knife they should use a stone.
This message was written and delivered al-Adnani. Therefore his death will have a significant impact on ISIL's ability to inspire its followers to launch that type of lonewolf attack in the future.
This is hugely embarrassing for the US because certainly since July 2016 they have been loudly demanding that Russia stops conducting airstrikes in Aleppo City. The fact that they have been making these calls in order to protect people like al-Adnani and allow them to go about their evil business unhindered is certainly hard to explain.
It is particularly hard for the French government to explain its decision to join the US in these calls for the al-Adnani's of this world to be protected. Not least because as the Russians were killing al-Adnani France was suffering yet another terror attack carried out by one of his followers. This time against police officers in Toulouse.
So as the news of al-Adnani's death broke the US responded by accusing all those saying he'd been killed in Aleppo City liars. Instead the US claimed al-Adnani had been killed in a US airstrike in Al-Bab - some 40km (25 miles) away. That of course provided an excellent excuse as to why on earth the US was conducting airstrikes in Al-Bab rather than around Manbij.
In their rush to claim responsibility for killing al-Adnani the US blurted out that they believed he had ordered the shooting down of a Russian Su-24 over Syria on November 24th 2015 (24/11/15) and its aircrew be machine gunned as they ejected.
The problem with this is that we all know who carried out the shooting down of that Su-24. It was Turkey.
We also know that the machine gunning of the aircrew was carried out by a group called the Sultan Mehmet Division. Named after the Ottoman Sultan Mehmet the Conqueror that group is part of the STB. Its spokesman Alparslan Celik is from the Turkish city of Keban.
The fact that Turkey gives ISIL orders and the STB carry out ISIL orders rather underlines the entire problem with this Turkish invasion of Jarablus.
20:30 on 1/9/16 (UK date)
Turkish President/Prime Minister/Emperor Recep Tayyip Erdogan was quite clear that this operation - named "Euphrates Shield" - was protect Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) positions west of the Euphrates River.
This would be done by defeating the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF/QSD) who had liberated the city of Manbij from ISIL on August 13th (13/8/16). Manbij sits around 35km (20 miles) south of Jarablus on the western bank of the Euphrates.
With Turkish troops, tanks and aircraft rushing to their aid ISIL obviously celebrated this invasion. On Friday (27/8/16) they released in which they executed Sunni Kurds, Sunni Arabs and Shia Arabs.
Entitled "The Nations Are Uniting Against You" this was intended to show that through Turkey ISIL now had the full backing of the World powers as it set out to cleanse the Levant of all those groups and more.
Alarmingly what has become clearer since then is that ISIL were not merely celebrating Erdogan's invasion. The two forces were actually operating in concert with each other.
It of course took the Turkish force less then 12 hours to fully liberate the town of Jarablus. That is because the roughly 1,400 ISIL fighters stationed there simply left having received advanced warning of the arrival of Turkish and knowing that they had nothing to fear from ceding territory to those Turkish forces.
This is far from the first time we have seen this type of coordination between ISIL and Turkey.
Back in August 2015 Erdogan wanted to invade Syria to defend ISIL's supply lines in an area between the town of Marea to the west and the Euphrates to the east. This area is referred to as either; "Erdogan's Pocket" or "Garvaghy Road."
Erdogan decided the best way to do this was to allow ISIL to move right up to the Turkish border so he could claim the invasion was needed to eliminate the ISIL threat. So Erdogan simply instructed the Al Qaeda-led Army of Conquest/Jaish al-Fatah (JAF) coalition to cede Marea to ISIL without a fight.
In December 2015 it had become increasingly apparent that Erdogan would not be given permission to invade Syria and the SDF had crossed the Euphrates at the Tishrin Dam. So Erdogan simply ordered ISIL to cede Marea to irregular Turkish forces known as the Syrian Turkmen Brigades (STB). ISIL promptly complied.
In April of 2016 Erdogan attempted to use the STB to attack the SDF from the west in order to protect Garvaghy Road. So he ordered ISIL to cede control of the town of Cobanbey to the STB. This sits roughly 45km (30 miles) west of Jarablus right on Syria's border with Turkey. Obviously ISIL immediately complied.
It was then made clear to Erdogan that under no circumstances would the STB be allowed to advance to Jarablus in order to attack the SDF. So Erdogan simply ordered the STB to cede control of Cobanbey back to ISIL.
Not only did ISIL coordinate the handing over Jarablus to Turkish forces they used it as an opportunity to launch a series of offensives against the SDF.
The first of these came against the town as Al-Shadadi. This sits roughly 50km (30 miles) from Syria's border with Iraq around 100km (60 miles) north-west of Deir er-Zour and roughly 50km (30 miles) south of the city of Hasakah. Fortunately this attack was repelled by Friday (27/8/16).
The much more serious ISIL attack was launched against SDF positions in Manbij. Following the handover of Jarablus Turkish forces began advancing south towards the SDF controlled city of Manbij being stopped around the village of Bir al-Kusa which sits roughly 13km (8 miles) south of Jarablus. At roughly the same time ISIL launched an offensive against SDF positions in and around Manbij from the south.
This placed the city and the SDF in the jaws of a classic military pincer movement. It showed the clear coordination between Turkey and ISIL with Turkish forces forming the northern jaw of the pincer and ISIL its southern jaw.
What the US-led coalition - Combined Joint Task Force: Operation Inherent Resolve (CJTFOIR) should have done is deliver a swift uppercut to this offensive in the form of intense airstrikes to the southern jaw. If this prevented Turkey from providing air cover to the northern jaw. Well that would just help to underline to Erdogan where he sits in the CJTFOIR pecking order.
Unfortunately the US did what is always seems to do these days - call a Time Out and try to preserve the status quo. Even if that status quo is trench warfare and genocide.
Under CJTFOIR supervision the SDF and Turkish forces agreed a temporary truce halting the Turkish advance on Manbij on Tuesday (30/8/16) morning. Turkey denies this.
At the same time the US has been trying to coax the Turkish forces to move west and attack the town of Al-Bab. This sits around 40km (25 miles) south-west of Manbij. With Al-Bab being a critical supply ISIL node not only for Raqqa - their de facto capital in Syria - but also Aleppo City you would no more want it under Turkish control than you would Manbij.
While the US was trying to do this things got even more embarrassing for them on Tuesday (30/8/16) at the other end of Garvaghy Road. In Aleppo City Russian airstrikes killed ISIL commander Abu Muhammad al-Adnani.
Although it might seem hard to believe before joining ISIL al-Adnani was Al Qaeda's poet in residence. This way with words and oratory style meant that not only was al-Adnani part of the inner-circle of ISIL's leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi he was the group's main spokesman and propagandist.
In the wake of the July 14th (14/7/16) terror attack in Nice, France many media commentators made reference to an ISIL message to its supporters instructing them to carry out terror attacks. This told them that if they didn't have a gun they should use a knife and if they didn't have a knife they should use a stone.
This message was written and delivered al-Adnani. Therefore his death will have a significant impact on ISIL's ability to inspire its followers to launch that type of lonewolf attack in the future.
This is hugely embarrassing for the US because certainly since July 2016 they have been loudly demanding that Russia stops conducting airstrikes in Aleppo City. The fact that they have been making these calls in order to protect people like al-Adnani and allow them to go about their evil business unhindered is certainly hard to explain.
It is particularly hard for the French government to explain its decision to join the US in these calls for the al-Adnani's of this world to be protected. Not least because as the Russians were killing al-Adnani France was suffering yet another terror attack carried out by one of his followers. This time against police officers in Toulouse.
So as the news of al-Adnani's death broke the US responded by accusing all those saying he'd been killed in Aleppo City liars. Instead the US claimed al-Adnani had been killed in a US airstrike in Al-Bab - some 40km (25 miles) away. That of course provided an excellent excuse as to why on earth the US was conducting airstrikes in Al-Bab rather than around Manbij.
In their rush to claim responsibility for killing al-Adnani the US blurted out that they believed he had ordered the shooting down of a Russian Su-24 over Syria on November 24th 2015 (24/11/15) and its aircrew be machine gunned as they ejected.
The problem with this is that we all know who carried out the shooting down of that Su-24. It was Turkey.
We also know that the machine gunning of the aircrew was carried out by a group called the Sultan Mehmet Division. Named after the Ottoman Sultan Mehmet the Conqueror that group is part of the STB. Its spokesman Alparslan Celik is from the Turkish city of Keban.
The fact that Turkey gives ISIL orders and the STB carry out ISIL orders rather underlines the entire problem with this Turkish invasion of Jarablus.
20:30 on 1/9/16 (UK date)
Tuesday, 30 August 2016
The 2016 ISIL Games: Closing Ceremony Pt.3
This should be read as a direct continuation of Part 2; http://watchitdie.blogspot.co.uk/2016/08/the-2016-isil-games-closing-ceremony-pt2.html
Who Loves Money: This sequence was to launch the International Olympic Committee's (IOC) new Internet broadcasting platform called simply "The Olympic Channel."
It featured a performance by Norwegian DJ "Kygo." His name is not to be confused with "Kigo" which in the poetry of 2020 Summer Olympic host Japan is a word associated with a type of season. For example Cherry blossoms (Sakura) are associated with spring. Nor is to be confused with "Kigo.net" who make Internet hosting software - including for web channels.
However I think that main significance of Kygo's inclusion here is that he was the first artist to achieve 1 billion streams on "Spotify." Obviously the IOC would like to replicate that level of success with their streaming service. Or at least they will until they discover how little money that made him.
Kygo was joined on stage by American singer Julia Michaels to perform their song "Carry Me." If you are not familiar with Julia Michaels you may well be familiar with some of her work. She is primarily a songwriter for acts such as; Demi Lovato, Selena Gomez, Justin Bieber, Nick Jonas, Gwen Stefani and Britney Spears to name but a few.
What I found interesting about Ms Michaels performance is that she wore an all-in-one, sequined green bodysuit which gave her the appearance of a lizard.
Behind the Zionists and the Illuminati probably the third most popular conspiracy theory is that an alien race of lizard people called "Reptilians" secretly control the World's economy. IOC head Thomas Bach is of course a Reptilian. As is International Association of Athletics Federations (IAAF) head Sebastian Coe.
While the song was being performed a short taste of this new Olympic Channel was broadcast featuring Olympians from many different nations dancing about and desperately trying to seem interesting. If this is what the Olympic Channel is going to be like I certainly won't be subscribing.
What we were seeing on screen was then brought to life as Kygo and Julia Michaels were joined on stage by four Olympians from different nations dancing about and desperately trying to seem interesting. They were;
The IOC has of course sold broadcasting rights across the globe since the infamous 1936 Berlin games. However it has only sold them on the basis that the games will be broadcast on free-to-air channels. That has now changed and the IOC is now going to be prepared to sell broadcasting rights to pay-per-view channels.
By launching an Internet broadcasting platform the IOC also seems to be positioning itself to cut traditional TV broadcasters out of the equation entirely and be the sole broadcaster of the games on a Netflix-style pay-per-view Internet platform.
Rather going against their principles of sport for the honour of sport which prevents the athletes being paid the IOC clearly think that they're going to make a lot of money off of this. Rather like the way college athletes are exploited in the US.
However I think the IOC are taking a very big risk here.
After all the Olympics has always been the refuge for the sports no-one would pay to watch.
Its strength comes from the fact that it is given blanket coverage on free-to-air channels every four years effectively forcing people into sports they wouldn't normally watch in the hope of inspiring them to take up that sport rather than follow it as a spectator.
If you put the Olympics behind a paywall I think you're going to struggle to find people prepared to watch it.
For example athletics already has the Diamond League that absolutely nobody is prepared to pay to broadcast. You only need to look at the trouble the Olympics has attracting top-flight competitors from sports that can stand on their own two feet such as Tennis, Golf and Football to the games.
In fact based on the last couple of games I've got the impression that plenty of people would be prepared to pay to stop the Olympics being broadcast.
However it certainly gives us something to talk about.
At around 17:45 on 30/8/16 (UK date) I'll try and pick this up after dinner.
Edited at around 20:00 on 30/8/16 (UK date) to add above and below;
Sieg Heil: Officially this sequence was inspired by the pre-historic cave paintings in Brazil's Serra da Capirvara National Park. This is a UNESCO World Heritage site located in the eastern state of Piaui along the Serro do Caparao mountain range.
These Brazilian games have very much picked up the baton for the 2012 London games. The final Para-Olympic Closing Ceremony of those games was very much inspired by the ancient tribes of Britain. It made great reference to the vast array of tribal art which is often wrongly lumped together under the term; "Celtic." A large theme of the ceremony was trying to explain the difference between Celts and say, Picts.
The sequence began with a woman representing famous Brazilian archaeologist Niede Guidon searching with her hurricane lamp through the dark, cavernous expanse of the arena. Niede Guidon is of course the woman who first discovered the Serra da Capirvara cave paintings and continues to be the head archaeologist in charge of the National Park.
As 'Niede Guidon' made her way around the arena some of the famous cave paintings were video projected onto the arena floor along - rather inexplicably - some giant hands. I will get onto those later but right now my hand seems to need to be firmly clasped around US President Barack Obama's hand in order to stop him wandering out into traffic or something similarly stupid.
The lighting in the arena then changed to bright reds and orange hues. This not only represented the blazing hot sun you get in parts of Brazil such as the Serro do Caparao mountains it also represented the rising red sun at the centre of 2020 Olympic host Japan's national flag.
The arena was then filled with hundreds of performers. Their costumes of a sort of sunshade over their heads and a sort of cloak of straw seemed very much inspired by the outfits Japanese labourers - known as "Coolies" - wore when they first arrived in Brazil to replace the newly freed slaves. It is due to this period of migration that Brazil has such a large ethnically Japanese population.
These performers then proceeded to march around in formation.
This was a technique very much used during the ceremonies of the 2014 winter games held in Sochi, Russia. In response to this the UK complained extensively that it was difficult for people in the arena to understand what was going on.
As such Brazil's use of the technique seemed intended to show support for Russia. The oversized, rectangular sunshades helped to make the shapes being formed very clear to see. Rather mimicking Russia's sarcasm in response to Britain's complaints.
Primarily though I think it was intended as reference to US popstar Beyonce. Particularly her "Formation" tour that was launched at the 2016 Super Bowl.
That performance made frequent reference to Malcolm X and Huey Newton's separate Black Panther Party (BPP). As with the BPP itself the Super Bowl performance and the tour is heavily inspired by the Irish Republican Army (IRA) song; "The Broad Black Brimmer."
As a result one of the first formations the Closing Ceremony performers created was the "X" used by Beyonce in the Super Bowl performance.
One of the next formations they created was a triangle with a circle inside. This seemed intended as a reference to the; "Eye of Providence" which is sometimes referred to as; "The All Seeing Eye." It's probably most famously used as part of the Great Seal of the United States on the $1 bill.
As with the Star of David and the Pentagram the Eye of Providence has its roots in Freemasonry. However in the twisted world of Internet conspiracy theories it is often associated with the Illuminati. There is a long running joke that Beyonce, Jay-Z and all those working for their Roc Nation record label are members of the Illuminati.
The Illuminati were a real group founded in Bavaria, Germany in the 17th Century. Their name is Latin for; "The Enlightened." Very much part of the Enlightenment movement of the time they worked to promote Secularism and against "Obscurantism" - what would be known today as political spin - and to prevent abuses of state power.
Beyonce, Jay-Z and the rest of the Roc Nation family support Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton and particularly the Black Lives Matter movement. Through this they have systematically worked to promote the lie that people like Michael Brown were innocent men murdered by the police. This seems to have been done to destroy the rule of law and constitutional protections that prevent abuses of state power.
As such to refer to Beyonce, Jay-Z or any of the others as members of the Illuminati can only really be intended as a form of mockery. After all they are clearly a very dark force who are completely dependent on obscurantism.
At around 21:15 on 30/8/16 (UK date) I'll try and pick this up again tomorrow but it's getting so dark the Reptilians must be upon us again.
Edited at around 15:00 on 31/8/16 (UK date) to add;
With Beyonce and the rest of the Roc Nation family very clearly not being members of the Illuminati the mystery is who on earth is making them famous. The answer to this is sadly a lot more dull.
It is the US government or perhaps the state that does all the work to make Roc Nation family successful. This is an example of what is termed "Soft-Power."
Unlike "Hard-Power" which is tanks, guns and nuclear missiles soft-power is used to allow nations to get what they want through more peaceful means such as diplomacy. The purpose of using celebrities be they popstars, movie stars or sportstars is primarily to get people to look fondly on the nations these celebrities come from. After all you're far more likely to do a favour for someone you like rather than someone you dislike.
The Opening Ceremony actually touched on this issue through a sequence dedicated to the song "The Girl From Ipanema." That suddenly became a smash hit across the western World just three months the US overthrew the Brazilian govt and imposed a military dictatorship. It strikes me that the purpose of making the song a smash hit was to make people look fondly upon Brazil and its newly installed dictatorship.
Another good example is a song called "Winds of Change" by The Scorpions. This was blasted out across East Germany from West Germany throughout 1989. Along with a number of other factors it helped breed the conditions that caused East Germans to call for the Berlin Wall to fall thus ending the Cold War.
An example that I am particularly familiar with though is Roc Nation family member Rihanna and her 2013 Diamonds World Tour. I spent a year detailing the myriad of complex things the US was trying to achieve through this. However I think it can be summed up as an attempt to sow conflict ahead of the 19th Conference of Parties (COP19) in order to prevent global action being taken to combat Climate Change.
Rihanna's Diamonds World Tour really began at the Closing Ceremony of the 2012 London Para-Olympic games.
Obviously there is a high level of concern about what the US has been trying to achieve with its soft-power efforts under President Obama. For example just in July through the song "Sledgehammer" Rihanna was used to protect the Turkish dictatorship from a popular uprising. You only need to look at the behaviour of that dictatorship since to realise what a horrific mistake that was on the US' part.
Then of course there is Black Lives Matter. This has caused riots as far afield as France, Britain and even Australia. As such if Obama wasn't also destroying his own country at such an alarming rate we would assume that we'd done something to offend America and Black Lives Matter had been invented to punish us.
Rather demonstrating why Obama seems to need a full time careworker despite this extensive mockery on Sunday (28/8/16) the MTV video awards were used to give Rihanna a special award for helping to preserve the Turkish dictatorship.
The rest of the show was really dedicated to celebrating Beyonce and her role in the Black Lives Matter movement. With Drake using the awards to declare his love for Rihanna last night was dedicated to her former lover Chris Brown who was involved in some strange stand-off with the police.
Of all the people watching the Closing Ceremony I am probably the one who has been most emotionally invested in Rihanna in the past. However not even I can be bothered to give much of a damn about any of that. After all by forcing her into a relationship with Drake the US is clearly having an extremely negative effect on Rihanna. However the US seems to be having an extremely negative effect on the entire World at the moment.
One of the next formations the performers created was the Swastika.
Strictly speaking though the performers only formed a series of squares. The swastika was 'accidentally' formed by the gaps between the lines of the squares. This is a reference to the way that Nazis and neo-Nazis often used coded imagery to disguise their political affiliations.
A prime example of this is the US backed Azov Battalion in what used to be Ukraine but is now the Northern or Shamali Province of the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL). The Azov Battalion use as their logo an interlocked "N" and "I" signifying "National Identity." The fact this looks like a slanted swastika is apparently a complete coincidence.
As they did with Ukraine during the 2014 Sochi games the US and UK hijacked these Rio games to use them as a celebration of ISIL.
In talking about ISIL I often compare them to the Nazis. This is much more than me going; "The Nazis are unpopular. If I compare them to ISIL that will make ISIL unpopular too." There are actually a number of ideological similarities between ISIL and the Nazis.
The first of these is the notion of ethnic or religious superiority. The Nazis of course believed that Aryan race was superior and members of the inferior races such as the Jews and deviants like homosexuals and the disabled should be exterminated.
ISIL are less clear on who they consider to be superior using a very narrow and perverted definition of Sunni Islam. They are though clear about who they consider to be inferior and in need of extermination - Jews, Christians, Yezidis, Hindus, Buddhists, Shia Muslims, homosexuals, the disabled and of course even Sunnis who don't believe in their perversion of Islam.
The second thing the Nazis and ISIL have in common is this nihilistic need for constant destruction.
The first years of the Nazi regime were spent consolidating itself within Germany. It then set out to conquer western Europe before being stopped at the English Channel in 1940. Rather than sitting still the Nazis responded by launching attacks eastwards against Russia before being stopped in 1943. In order to feed the need for destruction it was at this point the Nazis started its industrial scale genocide.
Initially ISIL set out to conquer Syria - the "Levant" region of the groups name. When they were stopped from doing so they too turned their attentions eastwards and attacked Iraq. When their advance into Iraq was halted ISIL also started ramping up its genocide, shifted its focus to terror attacks in Europe and even began smashing cultural artifacts in places like Palmyra all to feed this need for destruction.
The third big thing ISIL and the Nazis have in common in this quasi-religious obsession with almost the supernatural.
ISIL obviously claim to be an Islamic group. However they practise no form of Islam any Muslim recognises. Their desire to conquer the Levant is based on this mythological prophecy that doing so will see God descend to earth to led an apocalyptic war against all those ISIL consider inferior.
One thing that's probably less well known about the Nazis is that they were obsessed with the occult and the supernatural as they saw it manifested in all religions. It's not just Indiana Jones movies. The Nazis did actually dedicate a lot of effort to uncover the Biblical Ark of the Covenant and the Holy Grail in the belief it would give them superpowers and eternal life.
The Swastika is actually a prime example of this. Far from being something the Nazis invented the symbol has long been used in both the Hindu and Buddhist religions as almost a prayer of good luck or good fortune. The Nazis simply stole it thinking that it would bestow good fortune upon.
If you are going to travel to Japan for the 2020 games one of the things you should prepare yourself for is that you may happen upon buildings with absolutely giant swastikas painted upon them. The Buddhist temple where Kazuki Yazawa is training to become a monk being a prime example.
This has absolutely nothing to do with Japan's wartime past. Its simply due to the fact that Japan's Buddhists had been using the swastika for tens of thousands of years before the Nazis stole it. Therefore there no goodreason why they should give up a core element of their religion because of what happened during what - in historical terms - was little more than the blink of an eye.
The final shape the performers formed was the phrase; "RIO 2016." This obviously got a huge cheer in the arena.
The sequence ended with a yellow circle of light representing the sun being projected on the arena floor. In the centre of that circle was projected a lizard.
This seemed to be a reminder that Beyonce etc aren't backed by the Illuminati. They're Reptilians.
16:40 on 31/8/16 (UK date).
Who Loves Money: This sequence was to launch the International Olympic Committee's (IOC) new Internet broadcasting platform called simply "The Olympic Channel."
It featured a performance by Norwegian DJ "Kygo." His name is not to be confused with "Kigo" which in the poetry of 2020 Summer Olympic host Japan is a word associated with a type of season. For example Cherry blossoms (Sakura) are associated with spring. Nor is to be confused with "Kigo.net" who make Internet hosting software - including for web channels.
However I think that main significance of Kygo's inclusion here is that he was the first artist to achieve 1 billion streams on "Spotify." Obviously the IOC would like to replicate that level of success with their streaming service. Or at least they will until they discover how little money that made him.
Kygo was joined on stage by American singer Julia Michaels to perform their song "Carry Me." If you are not familiar with Julia Michaels you may well be familiar with some of her work. She is primarily a songwriter for acts such as; Demi Lovato, Selena Gomez, Justin Bieber, Nick Jonas, Gwen Stefani and Britney Spears to name but a few.
What I found interesting about Ms Michaels performance is that she wore an all-in-one, sequined green bodysuit which gave her the appearance of a lizard.
Behind the Zionists and the Illuminati probably the third most popular conspiracy theory is that an alien race of lizard people called "Reptilians" secretly control the World's economy. IOC head Thomas Bach is of course a Reptilian. As is International Association of Athletics Federations (IAAF) head Sebastian Coe.
While the song was being performed a short taste of this new Olympic Channel was broadcast featuring Olympians from many different nations dancing about and desperately trying to seem interesting. If this is what the Olympic Channel is going to be like I certainly won't be subscribing.
What we were seeing on screen was then brought to life as Kygo and Julia Michaels were joined on stage by four Olympians from different nations dancing about and desperately trying to seem interesting. They were;
- Shaunae Miller: This runner from the Bahamas with the brightly coloured hair is considered something of a big personality. She won Gold in the 400m not by running but by diving across the line.
- Yusra Mardini: Something of the darling of the IOC's new refugee team this Syrian rather famously pushed a boat containing 18 other irregular migrants for three hours across the Aegean Sea.
- Some Japanese Bloke: Sadly I did not catch the name of the Olympian representing 2020 host Japan. So I'm going to arbitrarily declare it to be Kazuki Yazawa - a trainee Buddhist monk who represented Japan in the Slalom Canoe.
- Pita Taufatofua: While carrying Tonga's flag during the Opening Ceremony this extremely oily Taekwondo fighter became a viral hit on the Internet. The IOC would clearly like to replicate that level of success with its Olympic Channel.
The IOC has of course sold broadcasting rights across the globe since the infamous 1936 Berlin games. However it has only sold them on the basis that the games will be broadcast on free-to-air channels. That has now changed and the IOC is now going to be prepared to sell broadcasting rights to pay-per-view channels.
By launching an Internet broadcasting platform the IOC also seems to be positioning itself to cut traditional TV broadcasters out of the equation entirely and be the sole broadcaster of the games on a Netflix-style pay-per-view Internet platform.
Rather going against their principles of sport for the honour of sport which prevents the athletes being paid the IOC clearly think that they're going to make a lot of money off of this. Rather like the way college athletes are exploited in the US.
However I think the IOC are taking a very big risk here.
After all the Olympics has always been the refuge for the sports no-one would pay to watch.
Its strength comes from the fact that it is given blanket coverage on free-to-air channels every four years effectively forcing people into sports they wouldn't normally watch in the hope of inspiring them to take up that sport rather than follow it as a spectator.
If you put the Olympics behind a paywall I think you're going to struggle to find people prepared to watch it.
For example athletics already has the Diamond League that absolutely nobody is prepared to pay to broadcast. You only need to look at the trouble the Olympics has attracting top-flight competitors from sports that can stand on their own two feet such as Tennis, Golf and Football to the games.
In fact based on the last couple of games I've got the impression that plenty of people would be prepared to pay to stop the Olympics being broadcast.
However it certainly gives us something to talk about.
At around 17:45 on 30/8/16 (UK date) I'll try and pick this up after dinner.
Edited at around 20:00 on 30/8/16 (UK date) to add above and below;
Sieg Heil: Officially this sequence was inspired by the pre-historic cave paintings in Brazil's Serra da Capirvara National Park. This is a UNESCO World Heritage site located in the eastern state of Piaui along the Serro do Caparao mountain range.
These Brazilian games have very much picked up the baton for the 2012 London games. The final Para-Olympic Closing Ceremony of those games was very much inspired by the ancient tribes of Britain. It made great reference to the vast array of tribal art which is often wrongly lumped together under the term; "Celtic." A large theme of the ceremony was trying to explain the difference between Celts and say, Picts.
The sequence began with a woman representing famous Brazilian archaeologist Niede Guidon searching with her hurricane lamp through the dark, cavernous expanse of the arena. Niede Guidon is of course the woman who first discovered the Serra da Capirvara cave paintings and continues to be the head archaeologist in charge of the National Park.
As 'Niede Guidon' made her way around the arena some of the famous cave paintings were video projected onto the arena floor along - rather inexplicably - some giant hands. I will get onto those later but right now my hand seems to need to be firmly clasped around US President Barack Obama's hand in order to stop him wandering out into traffic or something similarly stupid.
The lighting in the arena then changed to bright reds and orange hues. This not only represented the blazing hot sun you get in parts of Brazil such as the Serro do Caparao mountains it also represented the rising red sun at the centre of 2020 Olympic host Japan's national flag.
The arena was then filled with hundreds of performers. Their costumes of a sort of sunshade over their heads and a sort of cloak of straw seemed very much inspired by the outfits Japanese labourers - known as "Coolies" - wore when they first arrived in Brazil to replace the newly freed slaves. It is due to this period of migration that Brazil has such a large ethnically Japanese population.
These performers then proceeded to march around in formation.
This was a technique very much used during the ceremonies of the 2014 winter games held in Sochi, Russia. In response to this the UK complained extensively that it was difficult for people in the arena to understand what was going on.
As such Brazil's use of the technique seemed intended to show support for Russia. The oversized, rectangular sunshades helped to make the shapes being formed very clear to see. Rather mimicking Russia's sarcasm in response to Britain's complaints.
Primarily though I think it was intended as reference to US popstar Beyonce. Particularly her "Formation" tour that was launched at the 2016 Super Bowl.
That performance made frequent reference to Malcolm X and Huey Newton's separate Black Panther Party (BPP). As with the BPP itself the Super Bowl performance and the tour is heavily inspired by the Irish Republican Army (IRA) song; "The Broad Black Brimmer."
As a result one of the first formations the Closing Ceremony performers created was the "X" used by Beyonce in the Super Bowl performance.
One of the next formations they created was a triangle with a circle inside. This seemed intended as a reference to the; "Eye of Providence" which is sometimes referred to as; "The All Seeing Eye." It's probably most famously used as part of the Great Seal of the United States on the $1 bill.
As with the Star of David and the Pentagram the Eye of Providence has its roots in Freemasonry. However in the twisted world of Internet conspiracy theories it is often associated with the Illuminati. There is a long running joke that Beyonce, Jay-Z and all those working for their Roc Nation record label are members of the Illuminati.
The Illuminati were a real group founded in Bavaria, Germany in the 17th Century. Their name is Latin for; "The Enlightened." Very much part of the Enlightenment movement of the time they worked to promote Secularism and against "Obscurantism" - what would be known today as political spin - and to prevent abuses of state power.
Beyonce, Jay-Z and the rest of the Roc Nation family support Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton and particularly the Black Lives Matter movement. Through this they have systematically worked to promote the lie that people like Michael Brown were innocent men murdered by the police. This seems to have been done to destroy the rule of law and constitutional protections that prevent abuses of state power.
As such to refer to Beyonce, Jay-Z or any of the others as members of the Illuminati can only really be intended as a form of mockery. After all they are clearly a very dark force who are completely dependent on obscurantism.
At around 21:15 on 30/8/16 (UK date) I'll try and pick this up again tomorrow but it's getting so dark the Reptilians must be upon us again.
Edited at around 15:00 on 31/8/16 (UK date) to add;
With Beyonce and the rest of the Roc Nation family very clearly not being members of the Illuminati the mystery is who on earth is making them famous. The answer to this is sadly a lot more dull.
It is the US government or perhaps the state that does all the work to make Roc Nation family successful. This is an example of what is termed "Soft-Power."
Unlike "Hard-Power" which is tanks, guns and nuclear missiles soft-power is used to allow nations to get what they want through more peaceful means such as diplomacy. The purpose of using celebrities be they popstars, movie stars or sportstars is primarily to get people to look fondly on the nations these celebrities come from. After all you're far more likely to do a favour for someone you like rather than someone you dislike.
The Opening Ceremony actually touched on this issue through a sequence dedicated to the song "The Girl From Ipanema." That suddenly became a smash hit across the western World just three months the US overthrew the Brazilian govt and imposed a military dictatorship. It strikes me that the purpose of making the song a smash hit was to make people look fondly upon Brazil and its newly installed dictatorship.
Another good example is a song called "Winds of Change" by The Scorpions. This was blasted out across East Germany from West Germany throughout 1989. Along with a number of other factors it helped breed the conditions that caused East Germans to call for the Berlin Wall to fall thus ending the Cold War.
An example that I am particularly familiar with though is Roc Nation family member Rihanna and her 2013 Diamonds World Tour. I spent a year detailing the myriad of complex things the US was trying to achieve through this. However I think it can be summed up as an attempt to sow conflict ahead of the 19th Conference of Parties (COP19) in order to prevent global action being taken to combat Climate Change.
Rihanna's Diamonds World Tour really began at the Closing Ceremony of the 2012 London Para-Olympic games.
Obviously there is a high level of concern about what the US has been trying to achieve with its soft-power efforts under President Obama. For example just in July through the song "Sledgehammer" Rihanna was used to protect the Turkish dictatorship from a popular uprising. You only need to look at the behaviour of that dictatorship since to realise what a horrific mistake that was on the US' part.
Then of course there is Black Lives Matter. This has caused riots as far afield as France, Britain and even Australia. As such if Obama wasn't also destroying his own country at such an alarming rate we would assume that we'd done something to offend America and Black Lives Matter had been invented to punish us.
Rather demonstrating why Obama seems to need a full time careworker despite this extensive mockery on Sunday (28/8/16) the MTV video awards were used to give Rihanna a special award for helping to preserve the Turkish dictatorship.
The rest of the show was really dedicated to celebrating Beyonce and her role in the Black Lives Matter movement. With Drake using the awards to declare his love for Rihanna last night was dedicated to her former lover Chris Brown who was involved in some strange stand-off with the police.
Of all the people watching the Closing Ceremony I am probably the one who has been most emotionally invested in Rihanna in the past. However not even I can be bothered to give much of a damn about any of that. After all by forcing her into a relationship with Drake the US is clearly having an extremely negative effect on Rihanna. However the US seems to be having an extremely negative effect on the entire World at the moment.
One of the next formations the performers created was the Swastika.
Strictly speaking though the performers only formed a series of squares. The swastika was 'accidentally' formed by the gaps between the lines of the squares. This is a reference to the way that Nazis and neo-Nazis often used coded imagery to disguise their political affiliations.
A prime example of this is the US backed Azov Battalion in what used to be Ukraine but is now the Northern or Shamali Province of the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL). The Azov Battalion use as their logo an interlocked "N" and "I" signifying "National Identity." The fact this looks like a slanted swastika is apparently a complete coincidence.
As they did with Ukraine during the 2014 Sochi games the US and UK hijacked these Rio games to use them as a celebration of ISIL.
In talking about ISIL I often compare them to the Nazis. This is much more than me going; "The Nazis are unpopular. If I compare them to ISIL that will make ISIL unpopular too." There are actually a number of ideological similarities between ISIL and the Nazis.
The first of these is the notion of ethnic or religious superiority. The Nazis of course believed that Aryan race was superior and members of the inferior races such as the Jews and deviants like homosexuals and the disabled should be exterminated.
ISIL are less clear on who they consider to be superior using a very narrow and perverted definition of Sunni Islam. They are though clear about who they consider to be inferior and in need of extermination - Jews, Christians, Yezidis, Hindus, Buddhists, Shia Muslims, homosexuals, the disabled and of course even Sunnis who don't believe in their perversion of Islam.
The second thing the Nazis and ISIL have in common is this nihilistic need for constant destruction.
The first years of the Nazi regime were spent consolidating itself within Germany. It then set out to conquer western Europe before being stopped at the English Channel in 1940. Rather than sitting still the Nazis responded by launching attacks eastwards against Russia before being stopped in 1943. In order to feed the need for destruction it was at this point the Nazis started its industrial scale genocide.
Initially ISIL set out to conquer Syria - the "Levant" region of the groups name. When they were stopped from doing so they too turned their attentions eastwards and attacked Iraq. When their advance into Iraq was halted ISIL also started ramping up its genocide, shifted its focus to terror attacks in Europe and even began smashing cultural artifacts in places like Palmyra all to feed this need for destruction.
The third big thing ISIL and the Nazis have in common in this quasi-religious obsession with almost the supernatural.
ISIL obviously claim to be an Islamic group. However they practise no form of Islam any Muslim recognises. Their desire to conquer the Levant is based on this mythological prophecy that doing so will see God descend to earth to led an apocalyptic war against all those ISIL consider inferior.
One thing that's probably less well known about the Nazis is that they were obsessed with the occult and the supernatural as they saw it manifested in all religions. It's not just Indiana Jones movies. The Nazis did actually dedicate a lot of effort to uncover the Biblical Ark of the Covenant and the Holy Grail in the belief it would give them superpowers and eternal life.
The Swastika is actually a prime example of this. Far from being something the Nazis invented the symbol has long been used in both the Hindu and Buddhist religions as almost a prayer of good luck or good fortune. The Nazis simply stole it thinking that it would bestow good fortune upon.
If you are going to travel to Japan for the 2020 games one of the things you should prepare yourself for is that you may happen upon buildings with absolutely giant swastikas painted upon them. The Buddhist temple where Kazuki Yazawa is training to become a monk being a prime example.
This has absolutely nothing to do with Japan's wartime past. Its simply due to the fact that Japan's Buddhists had been using the swastika for tens of thousands of years before the Nazis stole it. Therefore there no goodreason why they should give up a core element of their religion because of what happened during what - in historical terms - was little more than the blink of an eye.
The final shape the performers formed was the phrase; "RIO 2016." This obviously got a huge cheer in the arena.
The sequence ended with a yellow circle of light representing the sun being projected on the arena floor. In the centre of that circle was projected a lizard.
This seemed to be a reminder that Beyonce etc aren't backed by the Illuminati. They're Reptilians.
16:40 on 31/8/16 (UK date).
Monday, 29 August 2016
Operation Featherweight: Month 26, Week 1, Day 7.
On Wednesday (25/8/16) Turkey launched an invasion of Syria focused on the border town of Jarablus using a mixture of both regular and irregular troops.
Displaying their usual levels of journalistic integrity when it comes to Syria much of the western media reported that this operation was being conducted against the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL). Turkey however has been quite clear that this invasion codenamed "Euphrates Shield" is to shield ISIL positions west of the Euphrates River.
It should come as little surprise then that ISIL not only welcomed Turkey's intervention on its behalf but openly celebrated it.
On Friday (27/8/16) ISIL released a video that had been shot in the group's de facto Syria capital Raqqa. It begins with the beheading of five men that it claims are members of the Sahawat group of Sunni tribes in Iraq's Anbar province who have been fighting ISIL.
The video then goes on to show five Kurdish prisoners being lined up in front of five of ISIL's child soldiers - known as the "Cubs of the Caliphate." After telling all Kurds to prepare their coffins and dig their graves each child then shoots a prisoner in the head killing them.
The nine minute video then ends with am adult ISIL fighter promising to kill all Shia's in the Qardaha, Tartus and Latakia parts of Syria. To emphasise this point he and three other adults then shoot and kill four Shias.
The children used as executioners are identified as coming from Uzbekistan, Egypt, Tunisia, a Kurdish area and Britain. The video is entitled "The Nations Are Uniting Against You" and seems intended to send that message that through Turkey the World has united behind ISIL against the region's Kurds, Shias, Christians, Yezidis and even Sunnis.
Early in the day on Friday morning ISIL launched twin suicide attacks against a refugee camp in the Kurdish region of Makhmour in Iraq. Fortunately it was foiled with only the attackers being killed. This came just five days after Kurdish security forces stopped a child on Sunday (21/8/16) before he was able carry out an ISIL suicide attack in Kirkuk, Iraq.
Turkish President/Prime Minister/Emperor Recep Tayyip Erdogan seemed to display almost psychic powers when he preempted this attack by falsely claiming that an ISIL child suicide bomber had been responsible for the attack on Erdogan's rival People's Democratic Party (HDP) in the Turkish city of Gaziantep the previous day.
With ISIL not only welcoming but celebrating Turkey's intervention to support them in their cause it almost goes without saying that they offered no resistance. Turkish forces were able to secure Jarablus in a matter of 12 hours whilst sustaining no casualties. Also missing from Jarablus was the civilian population that had fled in the face of Turkish forces.
Having seized Jarablus Turkish forces then increased their invasion force and began advancing towards the city of Manbij which sits around 35km (20 miles) south of Jarablus. Considered a key node in ISIL's supply lines between Raqqa and Turkey Manbij was finally liberated from the group on August 13th (13/8/16).
Although I don't think anyone is under any illusion of what Erdogan's true objective is Turkey claims that the purpose of this latest advance is to rid the area of the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK).
The problem with this is that the PKK is a Turkish political party. Rather like other Turkish political parties such as the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) it has a paramilitary wing - the People's Defence Forces (HPG). The Turkish media is forbidden from referring to the HPG in an attempt to convince people that the PKK is the paramilitary group and the HDP which oppose Erdogan is its political wing.
The force that is operating against ISIL in northern Syria is the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF/QSD). This coalition operating in a Kurdish majority area does contain a Kurdish element known as the People's Protection Forces (YPG) which is supported by all of Syria's Kurdish parties including the Democratic Union Party (PYD). However the SDF is a broad coalition of forces including;
The Quinta Brigada: Taking their name from the 15th Brigade of the Republican Army in the Spanish Civil War this is a brigade of international fighters who have volunteered to go and do what their own governments lack the courage to do.
During the recent Olympics British fighters in the brigade declared that they were splitting - Monty Python style - forming their own Bob Crow Brigade and going on strike. Now deceased Bob Crow was the RMT union leader who threatened to bring the 2012 London Olympic to a halt through strike action. So it should be pretty obvious what the British military thinks of them.
The Syriac Brigade: This is a brigade of fighters made up of the Assyrian or Syriacs who like the Kurds are indigenous to this part of northern Syria.
The Manbij Brigade: This is a brigade of Shia ethnic Turks from in and around the Syrian city of Manbij.
The Al-Sanadid Brigade: This is a brigade made up of members of the Arab Shammar tribe that is native to northern Syria.
The Al-Shaitat Brigade: This is a brigade made up of members of the Arab al-Shaitat tribe which is native to northern Syria.
Commandement des Opérations Spéciales: This is a brigade of French Special Forces troops that operated as part of the SDF in the liberation of Manbij.
SOCOM: This is a brigade of American Special Forces troops that operated as part of the SDF in liberation of Manbij.
The SDF also includes a number of Arab brigades that used to be part of the now defunct Free Syrian Army (FSA);
The Euphrates Volcano Brigade: These were the first former FSA group to work alongside the YPG helping to found the SDF.
The Raqqa Revolutionaries Brigade: As the name suggests this a brigade of Arab fighters originally from Raqqa who are obviously very keen to see it liberated from ISIL.
The Northern Sun Brigade: This is a brigade of Arab fighters from Syria's Aleppo province in which Manbij and Jarablus sit.
The Al-Qassas Brigade: This is a brigade of Arab fighters originally from Deir er-Zour to the south-east of Raqqa.
The Jarablus Brigade: This brigade of Arab fighters is originally from Jarablus.
It is worth noting though that none of these brigades comprise of what traditionally considered to be brigade strength.
In its efforts to drive these Arabs, Kurds, Assyrians and Shia Turkmen from their homes Turkey is primarily using its formal army backed by its airforce.
However it is also using a small group of around 300 irregular forces which it refers to as the "Free Syrian Army" but is referred to by everybody else as the Syrian Turkmen Brigades (STB).
Unlike the SDF's Manbij Brigade however members of the STB are not Syrians of Turkish ethnic origin. Instead they're simply just Turkish.
Probably their most high profile member is Alparslan Celik of the (Ottoman) Sultan Mehmet the Conqueror division. Celik is from the Turkish city of Keban where his father was the Mayor representing the MHP. The STB is simply another name for the Grey Wolves - the paramilitary wing of the MHP.
The fact that Celik has still not been prosecuted for his role the war crime of machine gunning two Russian pilots after the ejected on November 24th 2015 (24/11/15) is just a further example of Turkey failing to meet its obligations under international law.
In a bizarre act of appeasement to Erdogan following the invasion the US called on the YPG brigades of the SDF to withdraw to the eastern banks of the Euphrates River. On Thursday (26/8/16) the YPG brigades of the SDF began to comply with the US' request. The US has today formally acknowledged that there is no YPG presence west of the Euphrates.
Despite this Turkey has continued its advance towards Manbij attacking Arab elements of the SDF as it goes. However unlike where is supposedly faced off against ISIL in Jarablus as it has attacked Arab SDF forces Turkey's invasion force has been met with resistance. Particularly around the village of Amarinah which sits 8km (5 miles) south of Jarablus on the route to Manbij.
Sadly Turkish forces have responded to this Arab resistance with astonishing levels of brutality. On Thursday (26/8/16) they launched a chemical weapons attack on Amarinah's civilian population using Sulphur Mustard gas. Sadly this is something that the Sultan Murad division who make up the bulk of STB forces in and around Jarablus are notorious for.
Although it was the Army of Islam/Jaish al-Islam (JAI) who claimed responsibility two previous Sulphur Mustard gas attacks have been launched against civilians in the Shaikh Maqsood district of Aleppo City from Sultan Murad occupied positions in the past five months. The fact that both the Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW) and the United Nations (UN) have been wilfully blind to these attacks only serves to further underline the extent to which Erdogan is reliant on US protection.
On Sunday (29/8/16) the Turkey a conducted an airstike against the village of Bir al-Kusa which is around 13km (8 miles) south of Jarablus. This appears to have been a complete massacre with independent sources putting the civilian death toll in excess of 35. Today video footage has emerged of members of the Sultan Murad division kidnapping, tying up and then beating local children.
If Erdogan's claim that he simply wants to expel the PKK from west of the Euphrates wasn't bizarre enough Turkey is most certainly not limiting its aggression to the west of the Euphrates.
On Saturday (27/8/16) Turkey briefly sent troops and armoured vehicles to invade the city of Kobane. That sits 25km (15 miles) east of the Euphrates. Today Turkey has conducted artillery and airstrikes against the city of Qamishli. That stands 300km (180 miles) east of the Euphrates. Also today Turkey has conducted airstrikes against Kurdish positions in Gara. That's so far east of the Euphrates its in Iraq.
Turkey saw its first casualties of this invasion on Saturday (27/8/16) when Arab SDF forces destroyed three Turkish tanks killing one soldier and injuring several others.
The rumour I have heard is that these losses were incurred through the use of "Kornet" anti-tank missiles. This Russian made weapon is widely used across the region including by Turkey itself. Ironically these particular missiles may have come from Turkey's looting of the Libyan arsenal back in 2011 in order to arm ISIL only for the SDF to capture those weapons.
This is obviously an extremely concerning area for Turkey. Although US President Obama is still refusing to grant the official designation the SDF is widely considered the ground force of Combined Joint Task Force: Operation Inherent Resolve (CJTFOIR) in Syria. As a result many particularly European nations have supplied them with advanced weaponry such as the similar MILAN anti-tank system while Obama was busy handing out TOW anti-tank systems to Al Qaeda.
So on Saturday (27/8/16) night Turkey staged a rocket attack against the Diyarbakir military airbase from which it is providing ISIL with air support. In a complete violation of the laws of war Turkey has decided to shield this airbase from attack by locating it next to a civilian airport.
The purpose of staging this attack was to put pressure on CJTFOIR to stop supplying the SDF with weapons with which to fight ISIL. The idea being to whip Turkish people further into an anti-American frenzy by giving them the entirely false impression that weapons supplied to the SDF are being given to the HPG to be used against Turkey.
If that is the path Erdogan wishes to go down the flip side of that argument is that under UN Security Council Resolution (UNSCR) 2170 CJTFOIR would well within its rights to start directly supplying the HPG with weapons to destroy ISIL's airforce
Today the US has issued a statement calling the fighting between Turkey and the SDF unacceptable and declaring that it must cease.
Although this statement is long overdue - many think it should have been issued as far back as June 2015 - it is far from robust as it needs to be. For example it includes no timeframe and it seems to equate Turkey's wholly illegal invasion with the SDF's inherent right to self-defence. Therefore there is an extremely high risk that Erdogan will interpret this to mean that Turkey can maintain some form of military presence in Syria.
As I've been saying to the past year the key to the defeat of ISIL is the cutting of their supply line between Azaz in the west and the Euphrates River in the east.
Moving the Turkish border deeper into Syria within that area is the complete and exact opposite of what it required. Not to mention a gross violation of international law.
Perhaps if Obama didn't rely on Erdogan as his only source of information on events in Syria he may have worked that out for himself by now.
17:30 on 29/8/16 (UK date).
Displaying their usual levels of journalistic integrity when it comes to Syria much of the western media reported that this operation was being conducted against the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL). Turkey however has been quite clear that this invasion codenamed "Euphrates Shield" is to shield ISIL positions west of the Euphrates River.
It should come as little surprise then that ISIL not only welcomed Turkey's intervention on its behalf but openly celebrated it.
On Friday (27/8/16) ISIL released a video that had been shot in the group's de facto Syria capital Raqqa. It begins with the beheading of five men that it claims are members of the Sahawat group of Sunni tribes in Iraq's Anbar province who have been fighting ISIL.
The video then goes on to show five Kurdish prisoners being lined up in front of five of ISIL's child soldiers - known as the "Cubs of the Caliphate." After telling all Kurds to prepare their coffins and dig their graves each child then shoots a prisoner in the head killing them.
The nine minute video then ends with am adult ISIL fighter promising to kill all Shia's in the Qardaha, Tartus and Latakia parts of Syria. To emphasise this point he and three other adults then shoot and kill four Shias.
The children used as executioners are identified as coming from Uzbekistan, Egypt, Tunisia, a Kurdish area and Britain. The video is entitled "The Nations Are Uniting Against You" and seems intended to send that message that through Turkey the World has united behind ISIL against the region's Kurds, Shias, Christians, Yezidis and even Sunnis.
Early in the day on Friday morning ISIL launched twin suicide attacks against a refugee camp in the Kurdish region of Makhmour in Iraq. Fortunately it was foiled with only the attackers being killed. This came just five days after Kurdish security forces stopped a child on Sunday (21/8/16) before he was able carry out an ISIL suicide attack in Kirkuk, Iraq.
Turkish President/Prime Minister/Emperor Recep Tayyip Erdogan seemed to display almost psychic powers when he preempted this attack by falsely claiming that an ISIL child suicide bomber had been responsible for the attack on Erdogan's rival People's Democratic Party (HDP) in the Turkish city of Gaziantep the previous day.
With ISIL not only welcoming but celebrating Turkey's intervention to support them in their cause it almost goes without saying that they offered no resistance. Turkish forces were able to secure Jarablus in a matter of 12 hours whilst sustaining no casualties. Also missing from Jarablus was the civilian population that had fled in the face of Turkish forces.
Having seized Jarablus Turkish forces then increased their invasion force and began advancing towards the city of Manbij which sits around 35km (20 miles) south of Jarablus. Considered a key node in ISIL's supply lines between Raqqa and Turkey Manbij was finally liberated from the group on August 13th (13/8/16).
Although I don't think anyone is under any illusion of what Erdogan's true objective is Turkey claims that the purpose of this latest advance is to rid the area of the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK).
The problem with this is that the PKK is a Turkish political party. Rather like other Turkish political parties such as the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) it has a paramilitary wing - the People's Defence Forces (HPG). The Turkish media is forbidden from referring to the HPG in an attempt to convince people that the PKK is the paramilitary group and the HDP which oppose Erdogan is its political wing.
The force that is operating against ISIL in northern Syria is the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF/QSD). This coalition operating in a Kurdish majority area does contain a Kurdish element known as the People's Protection Forces (YPG) which is supported by all of Syria's Kurdish parties including the Democratic Union Party (PYD). However the SDF is a broad coalition of forces including;
The Quinta Brigada: Taking their name from the 15th Brigade of the Republican Army in the Spanish Civil War this is a brigade of international fighters who have volunteered to go and do what their own governments lack the courage to do.
During the recent Olympics British fighters in the brigade declared that they were splitting - Monty Python style - forming their own Bob Crow Brigade and going on strike. Now deceased Bob Crow was the RMT union leader who threatened to bring the 2012 London Olympic to a halt through strike action. So it should be pretty obvious what the British military thinks of them.
The Syriac Brigade: This is a brigade of fighters made up of the Assyrian or Syriacs who like the Kurds are indigenous to this part of northern Syria.
The Manbij Brigade: This is a brigade of Shia ethnic Turks from in and around the Syrian city of Manbij.
The Al-Sanadid Brigade: This is a brigade made up of members of the Arab Shammar tribe that is native to northern Syria.
The Al-Shaitat Brigade: This is a brigade made up of members of the Arab al-Shaitat tribe which is native to northern Syria.
Commandement des Opérations Spéciales: This is a brigade of French Special Forces troops that operated as part of the SDF in the liberation of Manbij.
SOCOM: This is a brigade of American Special Forces troops that operated as part of the SDF in liberation of Manbij.
The SDF also includes a number of Arab brigades that used to be part of the now defunct Free Syrian Army (FSA);
The Euphrates Volcano Brigade: These were the first former FSA group to work alongside the YPG helping to found the SDF.
The Raqqa Revolutionaries Brigade: As the name suggests this a brigade of Arab fighters originally from Raqqa who are obviously very keen to see it liberated from ISIL.
The Northern Sun Brigade: This is a brigade of Arab fighters from Syria's Aleppo province in which Manbij and Jarablus sit.
The Al-Qassas Brigade: This is a brigade of Arab fighters originally from Deir er-Zour to the south-east of Raqqa.
The Jarablus Brigade: This brigade of Arab fighters is originally from Jarablus.
It is worth noting though that none of these brigades comprise of what traditionally considered to be brigade strength.
In its efforts to drive these Arabs, Kurds, Assyrians and Shia Turkmen from their homes Turkey is primarily using its formal army backed by its airforce.
However it is also using a small group of around 300 irregular forces which it refers to as the "Free Syrian Army" but is referred to by everybody else as the Syrian Turkmen Brigades (STB).
Unlike the SDF's Manbij Brigade however members of the STB are not Syrians of Turkish ethnic origin. Instead they're simply just Turkish.
Probably their most high profile member is Alparslan Celik of the (Ottoman) Sultan Mehmet the Conqueror division. Celik is from the Turkish city of Keban where his father was the Mayor representing the MHP. The STB is simply another name for the Grey Wolves - the paramilitary wing of the MHP.
The fact that Celik has still not been prosecuted for his role the war crime of machine gunning two Russian pilots after the ejected on November 24th 2015 (24/11/15) is just a further example of Turkey failing to meet its obligations under international law.
In a bizarre act of appeasement to Erdogan following the invasion the US called on the YPG brigades of the SDF to withdraw to the eastern banks of the Euphrates River. On Thursday (26/8/16) the YPG brigades of the SDF began to comply with the US' request. The US has today formally acknowledged that there is no YPG presence west of the Euphrates.
Despite this Turkey has continued its advance towards Manbij attacking Arab elements of the SDF as it goes. However unlike where is supposedly faced off against ISIL in Jarablus as it has attacked Arab SDF forces Turkey's invasion force has been met with resistance. Particularly around the village of Amarinah which sits 8km (5 miles) south of Jarablus on the route to Manbij.
Sadly Turkish forces have responded to this Arab resistance with astonishing levels of brutality. On Thursday (26/8/16) they launched a chemical weapons attack on Amarinah's civilian population using Sulphur Mustard gas. Sadly this is something that the Sultan Murad division who make up the bulk of STB forces in and around Jarablus are notorious for.
Although it was the Army of Islam/Jaish al-Islam (JAI) who claimed responsibility two previous Sulphur Mustard gas attacks have been launched against civilians in the Shaikh Maqsood district of Aleppo City from Sultan Murad occupied positions in the past five months. The fact that both the Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW) and the United Nations (UN) have been wilfully blind to these attacks only serves to further underline the extent to which Erdogan is reliant on US protection.
On Sunday (29/8/16) the Turkey a conducted an airstike against the village of Bir al-Kusa which is around 13km (8 miles) south of Jarablus. This appears to have been a complete massacre with independent sources putting the civilian death toll in excess of 35. Today video footage has emerged of members of the Sultan Murad division kidnapping, tying up and then beating local children.
If Erdogan's claim that he simply wants to expel the PKK from west of the Euphrates wasn't bizarre enough Turkey is most certainly not limiting its aggression to the west of the Euphrates.
On Saturday (27/8/16) Turkey briefly sent troops and armoured vehicles to invade the city of Kobane. That sits 25km (15 miles) east of the Euphrates. Today Turkey has conducted artillery and airstrikes against the city of Qamishli. That stands 300km (180 miles) east of the Euphrates. Also today Turkey has conducted airstrikes against Kurdish positions in Gara. That's so far east of the Euphrates its in Iraq.
Turkey saw its first casualties of this invasion on Saturday (27/8/16) when Arab SDF forces destroyed three Turkish tanks killing one soldier and injuring several others.
The rumour I have heard is that these losses were incurred through the use of "Kornet" anti-tank missiles. This Russian made weapon is widely used across the region including by Turkey itself. Ironically these particular missiles may have come from Turkey's looting of the Libyan arsenal back in 2011 in order to arm ISIL only for the SDF to capture those weapons.
This is obviously an extremely concerning area for Turkey. Although US President Obama is still refusing to grant the official designation the SDF is widely considered the ground force of Combined Joint Task Force: Operation Inherent Resolve (CJTFOIR) in Syria. As a result many particularly European nations have supplied them with advanced weaponry such as the similar MILAN anti-tank system while Obama was busy handing out TOW anti-tank systems to Al Qaeda.
So on Saturday (27/8/16) night Turkey staged a rocket attack against the Diyarbakir military airbase from which it is providing ISIL with air support. In a complete violation of the laws of war Turkey has decided to shield this airbase from attack by locating it next to a civilian airport.
The purpose of staging this attack was to put pressure on CJTFOIR to stop supplying the SDF with weapons with which to fight ISIL. The idea being to whip Turkish people further into an anti-American frenzy by giving them the entirely false impression that weapons supplied to the SDF are being given to the HPG to be used against Turkey.
If that is the path Erdogan wishes to go down the flip side of that argument is that under UN Security Council Resolution (UNSCR) 2170 CJTFOIR would well within its rights to start directly supplying the HPG with weapons to destroy ISIL's airforce
Today the US has issued a statement calling the fighting between Turkey and the SDF unacceptable and declaring that it must cease.
Although this statement is long overdue - many think it should have been issued as far back as June 2015 - it is far from robust as it needs to be. For example it includes no timeframe and it seems to equate Turkey's wholly illegal invasion with the SDF's inherent right to self-defence. Therefore there is an extremely high risk that Erdogan will interpret this to mean that Turkey can maintain some form of military presence in Syria.
As I've been saying to the past year the key to the defeat of ISIL is the cutting of their supply line between Azaz in the west and the Euphrates River in the east.
Moving the Turkish border deeper into Syria within that area is the complete and exact opposite of what it required. Not to mention a gross violation of international law.
Perhaps if Obama didn't rely on Erdogan as his only source of information on events in Syria he may have worked that out for himself by now.
17:30 on 29/8/16 (UK date).
Thursday, 25 August 2016
Operation Featherweight: Month 26, Week 1, Day 3.
At around 04:00 (GMT) yesterday (25/8/16) Turkey launched an invasion of northern Syria. Its objective was to capture the town of Jarablus that sits right on Turkey's border on the western banks of the Euphrates River.
The US currently has Special Forces troops embedded with the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF/QSD) in the city of Manbij which sits around 30km (20 miles) south of Jarablus. They estimate that the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) had a force of around 1,400 fighters in Jarablus.
The Turkish invasion force was made up of 1,000 regular Turkish troops and 200 members of the Syrian Turkmen Brigades (STB). This is an irregular and therefore illegal division of the Turkish military that has been operating inside Syria since 2012.
One of their largest divisions are named after Murad IV - Sultan of the Ottoman Empire between 1623 and 1640. Other division are named after other Ottoman Sultans such as Mehmet the Conqueror and Selim II.
In total the Turkish invasion force was made up of 1,200 men. Although better equipped this saw them significantly outnumbered by an ISIL force 15% larger. As a result you would have expected this to be the start of a long and brutal battle. Although slightly larger the battle for the similarly sized Manbij raged for 72 days.
However the Turkish invasion declared that they had secured full control over Jarablus just 12 hours later at 16:00 (GMT) after sustaining no casualties.
This raises the obvious question of what happened to all these ISIL fighters?
There are two possible explanations;
Firstly the ISIL fighters simply merged into the STB force. This has been a constant problem.
For example in July 2014 the 1000 Dawud Brigade of the now defunct Free Syrian Army (FSA) defected to ISIL in Idlib province. In January 2015 some 3,000 members of 7 FSA divisions defected to ISIL.
Even fighters supposedly screened and vetted by the CIA have not been immune. In September 2015 the US had to shut down its Train & Equip program after the Division 30 fighters they'd trained merged with Al Qaeda just a few hours after crossing into Syria from Turkey.
It has also been a growing problem as ISIL have continued to lose ground both in Iraq and to the QSD in Syria. Barely a week goes by without the UK's Channel 4 News excitedly showing fleeing ISIL fighters being welcomed with open arms into the ranks of the STB. Of course due to their own peculiar bias they're constantly trying to convince viewers that is a good thing.
Such is the extent of the revolving door between ISIL and the supposedly "moderate" forces that make up the Army of Conquest/Jaish al-Fatah (JAF) coalition such as the STB that they can in no realistic way be considered an anti-ISIL force.
After all an ISIL fighter's ideology or the threat that they pose will not have changed simply because they have changed the name of their organisation.
To anyone with even half a clue this lack of distinction between ISIL and the Army of Conquest would have highlighted the need for Combined Joint Task Force: Inherent Resolve (CJTFOIR) to give its full and sole backing to the QSD. This would have allowed this coalition of Kurdish, Arab and Assyrian forces to filter the Islamist extremist elements out of Syria.
I guess though there must be a concern that once you remove the Sunni extremist elements there won't actually much opposition to the Syrian government left.
Secondly ISIL may simply have left handing control of Jarablus to the Turks in much the same way they repeatedly handed the towns of Marea and Cobanbey back and forth with the STB at the command of Turkish President/Prime Minister/Emperor Recep Tayyip Erdogan.
The calculation being that STB control of an area would have absolutely no negative impact on ISIL's operation whatsoever. Erdogan would simply use the STB to keep the guns and oil flowing.
The Turkish invasion was of course timed to coincide with US Vice President Joe Biden's visit to Turkey. The thinking being that this would help suppress public condemnation of Turkey's declaration of war. That visit has now ended meaning that I can now speak slightly more freely and constructively.
The first thing about Biden's visit is that it should never have happened.
The moment that Erdogan ordered the Turkish military to open fire on US Special Forces troops in Manbij on Monday (22/8/16) it should have been immediately cancelled. And everybody in Turkey should have been left in no confusion as to exactly why it had been cancelled.
As if going ahead with the visit wasn't enough of a screw up true to form Biden then proceeded to screw up even worse.
Ever since he crushed the July 15th (15/7/16) rising against his dictatorship Erdogan has been whipping the Turkish people up into an anti-American frenzy publicly accusing the US of trying to oust him.
In what I assume was an ill conceived attempt to quell rather than worsen this aggression Biden publicly declared that the US had no prior knowledge of the rising.
For those who are paranoid and deluded enough to believe in Erdogan that will only serve to further consolidate the conspiracy their poor, damaged minds. After all if the US had been behind the rising you'd expect them to deny it.
What Biden should have done is simply tell the truth and confirm that the US had prior knowledge that an increasing section of Turkish society were becoming deeply alarmed at Erdogan's conduct and were planning on stopping him from damaging the nation further.
Biden should then have detailed all things the US over a three month period to help Erdogan crush the rising. After all we all saw the US network CNN give Erdogan airtime to call his supporters to the streets.
Biden should then have explained that the US had supported Erdogan because despite the concerns of his countrymen the US remained confident that Erdogan continued to be committed to the shared values of the US.
The implication being that if Erdogan moved away from those shared values he would also move away from the US' protection and details of the Turkish arms shipments - including the nerve agent Sarin - to ISIL and Al Qaeda would be passed to the International Criminal Court (ICC).
Despite Erdogan's attempts to use Biden as some sort of bodyguard the international reaction to Turkey's declaration of war was literally earth shattering.
Erdogan has been threatening to launch this invasion of Syria since mid-2015. What has stopped up until now is the deterrent provided by Russia.
Simply Erdogan understood that the moment Turkish troops set foot in Syria they'd be wiped out by Russian airstrikes. Russian military doctrine allows for the use of small tactical nuclear weapons as a normal part of combat. So about an hour after a Turkish military invasion of Syria there simply wouldn't be a Turkish military.
Back in June the European Union (EU) renewed its sanctions against Russia imposed because of the deterrent it provides to ISIL. This was done almost on the command of Germany against the pleading of many EU states led by Italy.
As a result Russia decided that it can't be bothered doing the hardwork to protect the EU so repaired its relationship with Turkey removing the deterrent enabling the long planned invasion to go ahead.
Roughly two hours before Turkish tanks rolled into Syria a 6.2 magnitude earthquake struck central Italy killing at least 159 people and almost completely destroying the town of Amatrice.
The shock and horror at this earthquake along with the scenes of devastation it created serve as convenient metaphor for the effect that this Turkish invasion will have on Jarablus and the wider efforts to defeat ISIL and their allies.
As I mentioned yesterday if this Turkish invasion goes unchecked it could well lead to the collapse of the Syrian government and the creation of a Somalia-style Islamist failed state on the shores of the Mediterranean.
As you may have picked up on through the suspension of Hope Solo from the US national team there is growing concern even within the US that in the last months of his Presidency the agonisingly vain Barack Obama may have decided to make his legacy the creation of this failed state.
If the Syrian government is overthrown the first effect is that the majority of the Syrian people who support the Syrian government will have to flee as refugees to Lebanon. Due to the sectarian nature of this supposedly "moderate" opposition the conflict will likely spread to Lebanon.
This will force the Syrian refugees already in Lebanon along with the new refugees from Syria and the population of Lebanon to flee to Europe as refugees. We're talking in terms of 30 million new refugees - roughly half the population of the UK.
We already know that Erdogan is using refugees as a weapon against the EU and the ISIL and their associates are using the refugee routes to smuggler fighters into Europe to launch attacks.
So it's unlikely to be long before we have to get used to scenes of devastation like those in Amatrice in Europe. Just not from earthquakes but from terror attacks as ISIL try to follow through on their promise to conquer Rome.
About 8 hours later there was another 6.8 magnitude earthquake. This time striking in Burma/Myanmar. That provided rather an interesting case study that hopefully should show Putin the error of his ways.
Burma is run by a particularly nasty dictatorship. It was they who changed the name to Myanmar. Despite this the Burmese military junta has suddenly become America's best friend in the World.
The reason why the US has suddenly decided to overlook this nation's appalling human rights record is that it wants to politically and economically isolate China. It is trying to do the same thing to Russia.
However you will have noticed that China is not really involved in the Syria conflict and certainly isn't providing the same level of deterrent to ISIL and their allies that Russia has done.
Therefore it should be obvious to Putin that regardless of what he does in Syria the US is going to press for the sanctions to remain.
What Russia needs to do is win friends within the EU so they will disregard the sanctions in much the same way everyone completely ignored the longterm US sanctions on Cuba. Due to the destruction he has caused in Jarablus with his little tantrum I for one am not feeling much warmth towards Putin at the moment.
The UK has also been particularly vocal. Yesterday a member of the elite Royal Marines regiment was arrested on suspicion of helping dissident Republican terrorists in Northern Ireland.
The area between Azaz and the Euphrates River that Erdogan uses to supply ISIL is sometimes referred to as; "Garvaghy Road."
The actual Garvaghy Road is in the town of Portadown in Northern Ireland. It was key to the Northern Irish peace process that religious extremists were prevented from marching down Garvaghy Road calling for a genocide of the local civilian population.
As part of the discussions over Syria's Garvaghy Road there has been something of an increase in dissident Republican activity in Northern Ireland.
A non-Syria related of this came on the infamous July 12th which is the traditional day for marches in Northern Ireland. This year it fell just five days after the July 7th (7/7/16) terror attack against police officers in Dallas, Texas, US. Initially considered controversial because the attacker was killed by a bomb disposal robot.
So on the so-called "Glorious 12th" (12/7/16) these "dissident Republicans" left a simple pipebomb outside the BBC offices in Belfast. This gave the BBC the opportunity to video and broadcast globally a bomb disposal robot at work. It's really not that different to shooting someone with a gun.
The arrest of a member of a regiment so elite that a cousin of mine whom I speak to only every three years or so couldn't gain security clearance to join is the UK signalling that this 'terrorist' activity is in fact the fully permitted work of the British Crown.
It is a way of declaring that that these 'terror attacks' in Turkey are in similarly the work of the Turkish head of state - Recep Tayyip Erdogan.
It's since emerged that Turkey started gathering it's invasion force on August 19th (19/8/16). As such the bombing in Gaziantep the following day (20/8/16) was a scripted part of the invasion plan allowing Erdogan to murder a large number of members of a political party that opposes him in the process.
Erdogan's commitment to democracy has continued today. A convoy carrying Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu - leader of designated official opposition Republican People's Party (CHP) was fired on by Turkish police in Savsat. The police who are famously extremely loyal to Erdogan have blamed the attack on the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK).
The fact the attack occurred at completely the opposite side of the country to Turkey's Kurdish region doesn't seem to have bothered them in the slightest.
At around 17:20 on 25/8/16 (UK date) I try and pick this up after dinner but funnily enough my Internet connection has started to go a little sketchy.
Edited at around 18:55 on 25/8/16 (UK date) to add above and below;
Unfortunately in order to cover these coded conversations the UK Ambassador to the UN has taken to rather comically imitating the extremist rantings of the US everytime they call a Security Council session for everyone to publicly pledge their support for ISIL.
The problem is that as often happens to those blinded by their own egos Obama is somewhat lacking in the observational skills department. In fact Obama seems to be so lacking in any discernible skills rather than the role of President he seems better suited to the role of tramp or some sort of bum.
Speaking of which a British company is testing this strange Hybrid Air Vehicle known as "Airlander 10." Although they abandoned the project before completion this design was originally developed by the US military as a observation/intelligence gathering aircraft. Due to it's passing resemblance to Kim Kardashian the Airlander 10 has been nicknamed "The Flying Bum."
Yesterday a few hours after the Turkish invasion had began the Flying Bum suffered a seemingly catastrophic lack of support that sent it into a nosedive causing it to smash into the ground. Something Skateboarders would refer to as; "A Facepalm."
Later yesterday afternoon 5 men of Sri Lankan origin drowned off a beach in Camber Sands, Sussex, UK. Initially some thought they'd been chucked off the side of a people smuggle boat to highlight the 30 million extra refugees Obama seems intent on sending Europe's way. As it turned out that wasn't the case. Although it had been that sort of day.
The refugee issue of course was officially raised today with the rescuing of 6 irregular migrants from the Varne sandbank off the Kent coast.
Today Germany has given its latest update on Erdogan's refusal to grant access to German troops stationed at USAF airbase Incirilk as Turkey is obligated to do under its NATO member. Due to this continued obstruction that pre-dates the July 15th rising Germany feels that it can no longer consider Incirilk to be a NATO base and is to withdraw its forces to an alternative location in the region.
This comes less then a week after the US was forced to relocate between 50 and 90 nuclear to Romania from Incirilk over fears that Erdogan may attempt to seize them in order to supply them to ISIL.
During his speech yesterday Biden called on the QSD to withdraw from Manbij, Tishrin and all positions west of the Euphrates. This call was apparently reiterated by US Secretary of State John Kerry.
Despite having achieved the aim of clearing Jarablus of ISIL in a recording breaking 12 hours Turkey has so far made no attempt to withdraw its invasion force. In fact it has strengthened its force with 10 more tanks today and as I write is firing on retreating QSD forces as it advances towards Manbij - a key part of the supply route to ISIL's de facto capital Raqqa.
Manbij is of course the city that was liberated from ISIL on August 13th (13/8/16). You may remember this from the inspiring videos broadcast across social and conventional media showing women burning their Burqas and cutting off their beards in celebration of their liberation.
Manbij is also the city that;
US citizen Levi Shirley, 25 of Colorado,
US citizen Jordan McTaggart, 21 of Colorado,
US citizen Will Savage, 27 of Maryland,
UK citizen Dean Evans, 22 of Reading
Along with many others died to liberate.
20:00 on 25/8/16 (UK date).
The US currently has Special Forces troops embedded with the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF/QSD) in the city of Manbij which sits around 30km (20 miles) south of Jarablus. They estimate that the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) had a force of around 1,400 fighters in Jarablus.
The Turkish invasion force was made up of 1,000 regular Turkish troops and 200 members of the Syrian Turkmen Brigades (STB). This is an irregular and therefore illegal division of the Turkish military that has been operating inside Syria since 2012.
One of their largest divisions are named after Murad IV - Sultan of the Ottoman Empire between 1623 and 1640. Other division are named after other Ottoman Sultans such as Mehmet the Conqueror and Selim II.
In total the Turkish invasion force was made up of 1,200 men. Although better equipped this saw them significantly outnumbered by an ISIL force 15% larger. As a result you would have expected this to be the start of a long and brutal battle. Although slightly larger the battle for the similarly sized Manbij raged for 72 days.
However the Turkish invasion declared that they had secured full control over Jarablus just 12 hours later at 16:00 (GMT) after sustaining no casualties.
This raises the obvious question of what happened to all these ISIL fighters?
There are two possible explanations;
Firstly the ISIL fighters simply merged into the STB force. This has been a constant problem.
For example in July 2014 the 1000 Dawud Brigade of the now defunct Free Syrian Army (FSA) defected to ISIL in Idlib province. In January 2015 some 3,000 members of 7 FSA divisions defected to ISIL.
Even fighters supposedly screened and vetted by the CIA have not been immune. In September 2015 the US had to shut down its Train & Equip program after the Division 30 fighters they'd trained merged with Al Qaeda just a few hours after crossing into Syria from Turkey.
It has also been a growing problem as ISIL have continued to lose ground both in Iraq and to the QSD in Syria. Barely a week goes by without the UK's Channel 4 News excitedly showing fleeing ISIL fighters being welcomed with open arms into the ranks of the STB. Of course due to their own peculiar bias they're constantly trying to convince viewers that is a good thing.
Such is the extent of the revolving door between ISIL and the supposedly "moderate" forces that make up the Army of Conquest/Jaish al-Fatah (JAF) coalition such as the STB that they can in no realistic way be considered an anti-ISIL force.
After all an ISIL fighter's ideology or the threat that they pose will not have changed simply because they have changed the name of their organisation.
To anyone with even half a clue this lack of distinction between ISIL and the Army of Conquest would have highlighted the need for Combined Joint Task Force: Inherent Resolve (CJTFOIR) to give its full and sole backing to the QSD. This would have allowed this coalition of Kurdish, Arab and Assyrian forces to filter the Islamist extremist elements out of Syria.
I guess though there must be a concern that once you remove the Sunni extremist elements there won't actually much opposition to the Syrian government left.
Secondly ISIL may simply have left handing control of Jarablus to the Turks in much the same way they repeatedly handed the towns of Marea and Cobanbey back and forth with the STB at the command of Turkish President/Prime Minister/Emperor Recep Tayyip Erdogan.
The calculation being that STB control of an area would have absolutely no negative impact on ISIL's operation whatsoever. Erdogan would simply use the STB to keep the guns and oil flowing.
The Turkish invasion was of course timed to coincide with US Vice President Joe Biden's visit to Turkey. The thinking being that this would help suppress public condemnation of Turkey's declaration of war. That visit has now ended meaning that I can now speak slightly more freely and constructively.
The first thing about Biden's visit is that it should never have happened.
The moment that Erdogan ordered the Turkish military to open fire on US Special Forces troops in Manbij on Monday (22/8/16) it should have been immediately cancelled. And everybody in Turkey should have been left in no confusion as to exactly why it had been cancelled.
As if going ahead with the visit wasn't enough of a screw up true to form Biden then proceeded to screw up even worse.
Ever since he crushed the July 15th (15/7/16) rising against his dictatorship Erdogan has been whipping the Turkish people up into an anti-American frenzy publicly accusing the US of trying to oust him.
In what I assume was an ill conceived attempt to quell rather than worsen this aggression Biden publicly declared that the US had no prior knowledge of the rising.
For those who are paranoid and deluded enough to believe in Erdogan that will only serve to further consolidate the conspiracy their poor, damaged minds. After all if the US had been behind the rising you'd expect them to deny it.
What Biden should have done is simply tell the truth and confirm that the US had prior knowledge that an increasing section of Turkish society were becoming deeply alarmed at Erdogan's conduct and were planning on stopping him from damaging the nation further.
Biden should then have detailed all things the US over a three month period to help Erdogan crush the rising. After all we all saw the US network CNN give Erdogan airtime to call his supporters to the streets.
Biden should then have explained that the US had supported Erdogan because despite the concerns of his countrymen the US remained confident that Erdogan continued to be committed to the shared values of the US.
The implication being that if Erdogan moved away from those shared values he would also move away from the US' protection and details of the Turkish arms shipments - including the nerve agent Sarin - to ISIL and Al Qaeda would be passed to the International Criminal Court (ICC).
Despite Erdogan's attempts to use Biden as some sort of bodyguard the international reaction to Turkey's declaration of war was literally earth shattering.
Erdogan has been threatening to launch this invasion of Syria since mid-2015. What has stopped up until now is the deterrent provided by Russia.
Simply Erdogan understood that the moment Turkish troops set foot in Syria they'd be wiped out by Russian airstrikes. Russian military doctrine allows for the use of small tactical nuclear weapons as a normal part of combat. So about an hour after a Turkish military invasion of Syria there simply wouldn't be a Turkish military.
Back in June the European Union (EU) renewed its sanctions against Russia imposed because of the deterrent it provides to ISIL. This was done almost on the command of Germany against the pleading of many EU states led by Italy.
As a result Russia decided that it can't be bothered doing the hardwork to protect the EU so repaired its relationship with Turkey removing the deterrent enabling the long planned invasion to go ahead.
Roughly two hours before Turkish tanks rolled into Syria a 6.2 magnitude earthquake struck central Italy killing at least 159 people and almost completely destroying the town of Amatrice.
The shock and horror at this earthquake along with the scenes of devastation it created serve as convenient metaphor for the effect that this Turkish invasion will have on Jarablus and the wider efforts to defeat ISIL and their allies.
As I mentioned yesterday if this Turkish invasion goes unchecked it could well lead to the collapse of the Syrian government and the creation of a Somalia-style Islamist failed state on the shores of the Mediterranean.
As you may have picked up on through the suspension of Hope Solo from the US national team there is growing concern even within the US that in the last months of his Presidency the agonisingly vain Barack Obama may have decided to make his legacy the creation of this failed state.
If the Syrian government is overthrown the first effect is that the majority of the Syrian people who support the Syrian government will have to flee as refugees to Lebanon. Due to the sectarian nature of this supposedly "moderate" opposition the conflict will likely spread to Lebanon.
This will force the Syrian refugees already in Lebanon along with the new refugees from Syria and the population of Lebanon to flee to Europe as refugees. We're talking in terms of 30 million new refugees - roughly half the population of the UK.
We already know that Erdogan is using refugees as a weapon against the EU and the ISIL and their associates are using the refugee routes to smuggler fighters into Europe to launch attacks.
So it's unlikely to be long before we have to get used to scenes of devastation like those in Amatrice in Europe. Just not from earthquakes but from terror attacks as ISIL try to follow through on their promise to conquer Rome.
About 8 hours later there was another 6.8 magnitude earthquake. This time striking in Burma/Myanmar. That provided rather an interesting case study that hopefully should show Putin the error of his ways.
Burma is run by a particularly nasty dictatorship. It was they who changed the name to Myanmar. Despite this the Burmese military junta has suddenly become America's best friend in the World.
The reason why the US has suddenly decided to overlook this nation's appalling human rights record is that it wants to politically and economically isolate China. It is trying to do the same thing to Russia.
However you will have noticed that China is not really involved in the Syria conflict and certainly isn't providing the same level of deterrent to ISIL and their allies that Russia has done.
Therefore it should be obvious to Putin that regardless of what he does in Syria the US is going to press for the sanctions to remain.
What Russia needs to do is win friends within the EU so they will disregard the sanctions in much the same way everyone completely ignored the longterm US sanctions on Cuba. Due to the destruction he has caused in Jarablus with his little tantrum I for one am not feeling much warmth towards Putin at the moment.
The UK has also been particularly vocal. Yesterday a member of the elite Royal Marines regiment was arrested on suspicion of helping dissident Republican terrorists in Northern Ireland.
The area between Azaz and the Euphrates River that Erdogan uses to supply ISIL is sometimes referred to as; "Garvaghy Road."
The actual Garvaghy Road is in the town of Portadown in Northern Ireland. It was key to the Northern Irish peace process that religious extremists were prevented from marching down Garvaghy Road calling for a genocide of the local civilian population.
As part of the discussions over Syria's Garvaghy Road there has been something of an increase in dissident Republican activity in Northern Ireland.
A non-Syria related of this came on the infamous July 12th which is the traditional day for marches in Northern Ireland. This year it fell just five days after the July 7th (7/7/16) terror attack against police officers in Dallas, Texas, US. Initially considered controversial because the attacker was killed by a bomb disposal robot.
So on the so-called "Glorious 12th" (12/7/16) these "dissident Republicans" left a simple pipebomb outside the BBC offices in Belfast. This gave the BBC the opportunity to video and broadcast globally a bomb disposal robot at work. It's really not that different to shooting someone with a gun.
The arrest of a member of a regiment so elite that a cousin of mine whom I speak to only every three years or so couldn't gain security clearance to join is the UK signalling that this 'terrorist' activity is in fact the fully permitted work of the British Crown.
It is a way of declaring that that these 'terror attacks' in Turkey are in similarly the work of the Turkish head of state - Recep Tayyip Erdogan.
It's since emerged that Turkey started gathering it's invasion force on August 19th (19/8/16). As such the bombing in Gaziantep the following day (20/8/16) was a scripted part of the invasion plan allowing Erdogan to murder a large number of members of a political party that opposes him in the process.
Erdogan's commitment to democracy has continued today. A convoy carrying Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu - leader of designated official opposition Republican People's Party (CHP) was fired on by Turkish police in Savsat. The police who are famously extremely loyal to Erdogan have blamed the attack on the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK).
The fact the attack occurred at completely the opposite side of the country to Turkey's Kurdish region doesn't seem to have bothered them in the slightest.
At around 17:20 on 25/8/16 (UK date) I try and pick this up after dinner but funnily enough my Internet connection has started to go a little sketchy.
Edited at around 18:55 on 25/8/16 (UK date) to add above and below;
Unfortunately in order to cover these coded conversations the UK Ambassador to the UN has taken to rather comically imitating the extremist rantings of the US everytime they call a Security Council session for everyone to publicly pledge their support for ISIL.
The problem is that as often happens to those blinded by their own egos Obama is somewhat lacking in the observational skills department. In fact Obama seems to be so lacking in any discernible skills rather than the role of President he seems better suited to the role of tramp or some sort of bum.
Speaking of which a British company is testing this strange Hybrid Air Vehicle known as "Airlander 10." Although they abandoned the project before completion this design was originally developed by the US military as a observation/intelligence gathering aircraft. Due to it's passing resemblance to Kim Kardashian the Airlander 10 has been nicknamed "The Flying Bum."
Yesterday a few hours after the Turkish invasion had began the Flying Bum suffered a seemingly catastrophic lack of support that sent it into a nosedive causing it to smash into the ground. Something Skateboarders would refer to as; "A Facepalm."
Later yesterday afternoon 5 men of Sri Lankan origin drowned off a beach in Camber Sands, Sussex, UK. Initially some thought they'd been chucked off the side of a people smuggle boat to highlight the 30 million extra refugees Obama seems intent on sending Europe's way. As it turned out that wasn't the case. Although it had been that sort of day.
The refugee issue of course was officially raised today with the rescuing of 6 irregular migrants from the Varne sandbank off the Kent coast.
Today Germany has given its latest update on Erdogan's refusal to grant access to German troops stationed at USAF airbase Incirilk as Turkey is obligated to do under its NATO member. Due to this continued obstruction that pre-dates the July 15th rising Germany feels that it can no longer consider Incirilk to be a NATO base and is to withdraw its forces to an alternative location in the region.
This comes less then a week after the US was forced to relocate between 50 and 90 nuclear to Romania from Incirilk over fears that Erdogan may attempt to seize them in order to supply them to ISIL.
During his speech yesterday Biden called on the QSD to withdraw from Manbij, Tishrin and all positions west of the Euphrates. This call was apparently reiterated by US Secretary of State John Kerry.
Despite having achieved the aim of clearing Jarablus of ISIL in a recording breaking 12 hours Turkey has so far made no attempt to withdraw its invasion force. In fact it has strengthened its force with 10 more tanks today and as I write is firing on retreating QSD forces as it advances towards Manbij - a key part of the supply route to ISIL's de facto capital Raqqa.
Manbij is of course the city that was liberated from ISIL on August 13th (13/8/16). You may remember this from the inspiring videos broadcast across social and conventional media showing women burning their Burqas and cutting off their beards in celebration of their liberation.
Manbij is also the city that;
US citizen Levi Shirley, 25 of Colorado,
US citizen Jordan McTaggart, 21 of Colorado,
US citizen Will Savage, 27 of Maryland,
UK citizen Dean Evans, 22 of Reading
Along with many others died to liberate.
20:00 on 25/8/16 (UK date).
Wednesday, 24 August 2016
Operation Featherweight: Month 26, Week 1, Day 2.
Certainly since the summer of 2015 the defeat of the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) has rested on anti-ISIL forces ability to control a roughly 100km (60 mile) strip of Syria's border with Turkey.
Stretching between the town of Azaz in the west and the Euphrates River in the east this is sometimes referred to as "Garvaghy Road" or "Erdogan's Pocket." It is used by Turkish President/Prime Minister/Emperor Recep Tayyip Erdogan to supply ISIL with weapons. In return ISIL use the route to smuggle oil to Turkish refineries that are controlled by Erdogan's son-in-law Bilal.
In July of 2015 the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF/QSD) expanded the roughly 12,000km^2 (7,200 miles^2) buffer-zone it controls by liberating the town of Sarrin from ISIL. This left the QSD in complete control of the area between the border with Iraq in the east and Sarrin on the eastern banks of the Euphrates.
Their logical next step would be to cross the Euphrates and liberate all ISIL positions to the west of the river.
In response to ISIL supply lines coming under threat in this way Erdogan drew up plans to use the Turkish military to invade northern Syria to stop the QSD's advance and keep ISIL's oil and weapons flowing.
Preparations for this formal Turkish invasion of Syria reached such advance stages that it was even given a codename - "Cerabulus" - and a prospective "D-Day" - December 16th (16/12/15). It was preceded by a smaller partial Turkish invasion of the Bashiqa region of northern Iraq close to Mosul - ISIL's de facto capital in the country.
Under intense international pressure Erdogan was forced to abandon the Cerabulus operation and the Turkish invasion force was withdraw from Iraq on December 19th (19/12/15).
With the threat of Turkish invasion lifted the QSD were able to cross the Euphrates River liberating the Tishrin Dam and surrounding town from ISIL on December 30th (30/12/15). However the US refused to support the QSD in advancing any further in liberating Erdogan's Pocket from ISIL.
In April 2016 the Kurdish People's Protection Units (YPG) who are centred around the city of Afrin in north-west Syria began to advance of ISIL positions in and around Azaz. They succeeded in liberating the town of Tall Rifat which sits around 16km (9.5 miles) south of Azaz. Thus they has breached the western border of Erdogan's Pocket.
Erdogan responded to this by using the Turkish military to shell the YPG stopping their advance in their tracks allowing ISIL to remain in control of the area.
On May 31st (31/5/16) the QSD finally got permission to launch an operation to liberate the town of Manbij from ISIL. Manbij sits around 30km (17 miles) north-west of Tishrin on the western banks of the Euphrates. Despite granting permission US support for this operation was slight to non-existent.
Due to a curious but longstanding agreement between US President Obama and Erdogan aircraft belonging to the US-led anti-ISIL coalition - Combined Joint Taskforce: Operation Inherent Resolve (CJTFOIR) - aren't really permitted to carry out airstrikes in this area surrounding ISIL's de facto Syrian capital Raqqa.
The US did allow the QSD to be supplied with ammunition to conduct the operation. However that ammunition would only be delivered by the US and would only be delivered on an almost day-to-day basis.
As a result the operation to liberate Manbij - a city just 8km^2 (5 miles^2) - has been painfully slow. It was only completed on August 13th (13/8/16) - 75 days and two months after it had begun.
The logical next step in cutting ISIL's supply-lines would be for them to advance roughly 30km (20 miles) north to the town of Jarablus. The problem is that Jarablus sits directly on Turkey's border with Syria.
As a result there has been a high degree of concern that if an operation to liberate Jarablus were to begin Erdogan would respond by using the Turkish military to fight alongside ISIL just as they did in Tall Rifat back in April.
While the US continued to dither in making Erdogan's mind up for him Erdogan moved to make Obama's mind up for him.
Today Erdogan has used the Turkish military to formally invade the Syrian town of Jarablus.
Erdogan is making absolutely no attempt to disguise the fact that this operation is to reinforce ISIL's presence in Jarablus against QSD attempts to liberate Jarablus. The operation is even codenamed "Euphrates Shield."
The launching of the operation has been timed to coincide with US Vice President Joe Biden's visit to Turkey. The thinking being that the US will be too afraid to condemn Erdogan's actions whilst sharing a press conference podium with Erdogan.
Sadly this act of Turkish aggression against US interests in the region has been far too easy to predict.
On Saturday (20/8/16) Erdogan supporters - a group that very much includes ISIL - carried out a bomb attack against a wedding of members of the People's Democratic Party (HDP) in the Turkish city of Gaziantep. This killed 54 people including 40 children.
The HDP are the only Turkish political party not to support Erdogan's purge of every aspect of Turkish civil society following the failed rising against him on July 15th (15/7/16). Therefore in conducting this attack Erdogan was simply able to murder a large number of his political opponents.
However through his silencing of the media and the persecution of his political opponents Erdogan has been rather successful in brainwashing the Turkish population into the sort of delusionally psychotic state in which Erdogan himself operates.
In this mindset groups as violently and clearly opposed to each other such as ISIL, the QSD and the Syrian government are in fact all secret allies conspiring against Erdogan.
Therefore few in Turkey would make a distinction between an ISIL attack and any number of largely fictional groups that Erdogan has warned are lurking behind every corner.
Erdogan though couldn't resist throwing his core support base a little bone by claiming on Sunday (21/8/16) that the Gaziantep attack had been carried out by a child bomber. It hadn't.
This claim was intended to show that Erdogan had prior knowledge of an ISIL attack that was to be carried out by a child suicide bomber in the Iraqi city of Kirkuk later that day. Fortunately that attack failed.
The purpose being to gloat to Erdogan's Islamist base that they would be soon joining their Muslim Brothers ISIL in open war.
On Monday (22/8/16) Erdogan used the Turkish military to shell positions in Jarablus. This was intended to serve as a warning to the QSD and the US that Jarablus was most certainly in the range of Turkish guns and Erdogan would not hesitate to use them to keep the town under ISIL control.
However the shelling of Jarablus was primarily used as a cover for the shelling of Manbij.
This is ironic because Erdogan refused to participate in the liberation of Manbij claiming that it was out of range of Turkish guns. When the US offered to position longer range Multiple Launch Rocket Systems (MLRS) in Turkey for the operation Erdogan refused them permission.
Erdogan's shelling of Manbij should have been taken as a clear and direct threat to the US because it was American Special Forces troops that were coming under fire.
On Friday (19/8/16) the US scrambled aircraft when US Special Forces came close to being fired upon in the city of Hasakah on the southern boundary of the QSD buffer-zone. This was an absolutely appalling decision by the US that displayed a complete lack of understanding of the situation on the ground in Syria.
It also sent the fatal message to Erdogan that the US seemed to be looking for an excuse to abandon the anti-ISIL operation completely in order to act as ISIL's airforce against the Syrian government.
Once the US had made that mistake though it became utterly essential that they issued the same warning to Erdogan once he opened fire on US troops in Manbij.
Having failed to take appropriate and timely remedial action against Erdogan Obama has now played himself corner. The closure of Erdogan's Pocket and the cutting of ISIL's supply-lines is simply non-negotiable.
The worse case scenario from the current situation is that ISIL and their associates grow stronger and the Syrian government falls creating a nihilistic radical Islamist failed state on the shores of the Mediterranean. If Obama even suggests that those surrounding him seem to have no option other then to shoot him dead on the spot.
The best case scenario is that this conflict which is now well into it's fifth year simply continues for all eternity. That means the immense human suffering the UN Security Council claims to be so concerned about continues eternally. The flood of irregular migrants into Europe continues eternally as does the severe terror threat to Europe and beyond.
As such I am struggling to see what option CJTFOIR has other than to range its forces to expel the Turkish invasion force from Syria and seal Erdogan's Pocket. With Turkey nominally being a NATO member that is not a situation someone would wish on their worst enemy.
I can only assume then that Obama has finally accepted that Hillary Clinton won't be replacing him.
So he's decided to drop a massive turd on the Presidential desk for when Donald Trump takes over like some sort of petulant child.
16:05 on 24/8/16 (UK date).
Stretching between the town of Azaz in the west and the Euphrates River in the east this is sometimes referred to as "Garvaghy Road" or "Erdogan's Pocket." It is used by Turkish President/Prime Minister/Emperor Recep Tayyip Erdogan to supply ISIL with weapons. In return ISIL use the route to smuggle oil to Turkish refineries that are controlled by Erdogan's son-in-law Bilal.
In July of 2015 the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF/QSD) expanded the roughly 12,000km^2 (7,200 miles^2) buffer-zone it controls by liberating the town of Sarrin from ISIL. This left the QSD in complete control of the area between the border with Iraq in the east and Sarrin on the eastern banks of the Euphrates.
Their logical next step would be to cross the Euphrates and liberate all ISIL positions to the west of the river.
In response to ISIL supply lines coming under threat in this way Erdogan drew up plans to use the Turkish military to invade northern Syria to stop the QSD's advance and keep ISIL's oil and weapons flowing.
Preparations for this formal Turkish invasion of Syria reached such advance stages that it was even given a codename - "Cerabulus" - and a prospective "D-Day" - December 16th (16/12/15). It was preceded by a smaller partial Turkish invasion of the Bashiqa region of northern Iraq close to Mosul - ISIL's de facto capital in the country.
Under intense international pressure Erdogan was forced to abandon the Cerabulus operation and the Turkish invasion force was withdraw from Iraq on December 19th (19/12/15).
With the threat of Turkish invasion lifted the QSD were able to cross the Euphrates River liberating the Tishrin Dam and surrounding town from ISIL on December 30th (30/12/15). However the US refused to support the QSD in advancing any further in liberating Erdogan's Pocket from ISIL.
In April 2016 the Kurdish People's Protection Units (YPG) who are centred around the city of Afrin in north-west Syria began to advance of ISIL positions in and around Azaz. They succeeded in liberating the town of Tall Rifat which sits around 16km (9.5 miles) south of Azaz. Thus they has breached the western border of Erdogan's Pocket.
Erdogan responded to this by using the Turkish military to shell the YPG stopping their advance in their tracks allowing ISIL to remain in control of the area.
On May 31st (31/5/16) the QSD finally got permission to launch an operation to liberate the town of Manbij from ISIL. Manbij sits around 30km (17 miles) north-west of Tishrin on the western banks of the Euphrates. Despite granting permission US support for this operation was slight to non-existent.
Due to a curious but longstanding agreement between US President Obama and Erdogan aircraft belonging to the US-led anti-ISIL coalition - Combined Joint Taskforce: Operation Inherent Resolve (CJTFOIR) - aren't really permitted to carry out airstrikes in this area surrounding ISIL's de facto Syrian capital Raqqa.
The US did allow the QSD to be supplied with ammunition to conduct the operation. However that ammunition would only be delivered by the US and would only be delivered on an almost day-to-day basis.
As a result the operation to liberate Manbij - a city just 8km^2 (5 miles^2) - has been painfully slow. It was only completed on August 13th (13/8/16) - 75 days and two months after it had begun.
The logical next step in cutting ISIL's supply-lines would be for them to advance roughly 30km (20 miles) north to the town of Jarablus. The problem is that Jarablus sits directly on Turkey's border with Syria.
As a result there has been a high degree of concern that if an operation to liberate Jarablus were to begin Erdogan would respond by using the Turkish military to fight alongside ISIL just as they did in Tall Rifat back in April.
While the US continued to dither in making Erdogan's mind up for him Erdogan moved to make Obama's mind up for him.
Today Erdogan has used the Turkish military to formally invade the Syrian town of Jarablus.
Erdogan is making absolutely no attempt to disguise the fact that this operation is to reinforce ISIL's presence in Jarablus against QSD attempts to liberate Jarablus. The operation is even codenamed "Euphrates Shield."
The launching of the operation has been timed to coincide with US Vice President Joe Biden's visit to Turkey. The thinking being that the US will be too afraid to condemn Erdogan's actions whilst sharing a press conference podium with Erdogan.
Sadly this act of Turkish aggression against US interests in the region has been far too easy to predict.
On Saturday (20/8/16) Erdogan supporters - a group that very much includes ISIL - carried out a bomb attack against a wedding of members of the People's Democratic Party (HDP) in the Turkish city of Gaziantep. This killed 54 people including 40 children.
The HDP are the only Turkish political party not to support Erdogan's purge of every aspect of Turkish civil society following the failed rising against him on July 15th (15/7/16). Therefore in conducting this attack Erdogan was simply able to murder a large number of his political opponents.
However through his silencing of the media and the persecution of his political opponents Erdogan has been rather successful in brainwashing the Turkish population into the sort of delusionally psychotic state in which Erdogan himself operates.
In this mindset groups as violently and clearly opposed to each other such as ISIL, the QSD and the Syrian government are in fact all secret allies conspiring against Erdogan.
Therefore few in Turkey would make a distinction between an ISIL attack and any number of largely fictional groups that Erdogan has warned are lurking behind every corner.
Erdogan though couldn't resist throwing his core support base a little bone by claiming on Sunday (21/8/16) that the Gaziantep attack had been carried out by a child bomber. It hadn't.
This claim was intended to show that Erdogan had prior knowledge of an ISIL attack that was to be carried out by a child suicide bomber in the Iraqi city of Kirkuk later that day. Fortunately that attack failed.
The purpose being to gloat to Erdogan's Islamist base that they would be soon joining their Muslim Brothers ISIL in open war.
On Monday (22/8/16) Erdogan used the Turkish military to shell positions in Jarablus. This was intended to serve as a warning to the QSD and the US that Jarablus was most certainly in the range of Turkish guns and Erdogan would not hesitate to use them to keep the town under ISIL control.
However the shelling of Jarablus was primarily used as a cover for the shelling of Manbij.
This is ironic because Erdogan refused to participate in the liberation of Manbij claiming that it was out of range of Turkish guns. When the US offered to position longer range Multiple Launch Rocket Systems (MLRS) in Turkey for the operation Erdogan refused them permission.
Erdogan's shelling of Manbij should have been taken as a clear and direct threat to the US because it was American Special Forces troops that were coming under fire.
On Friday (19/8/16) the US scrambled aircraft when US Special Forces came close to being fired upon in the city of Hasakah on the southern boundary of the QSD buffer-zone. This was an absolutely appalling decision by the US that displayed a complete lack of understanding of the situation on the ground in Syria.
It also sent the fatal message to Erdogan that the US seemed to be looking for an excuse to abandon the anti-ISIL operation completely in order to act as ISIL's airforce against the Syrian government.
Once the US had made that mistake though it became utterly essential that they issued the same warning to Erdogan once he opened fire on US troops in Manbij.
Having failed to take appropriate and timely remedial action against Erdogan Obama has now played himself corner. The closure of Erdogan's Pocket and the cutting of ISIL's supply-lines is simply non-negotiable.
The worse case scenario from the current situation is that ISIL and their associates grow stronger and the Syrian government falls creating a nihilistic radical Islamist failed state on the shores of the Mediterranean. If Obama even suggests that those surrounding him seem to have no option other then to shoot him dead on the spot.
The best case scenario is that this conflict which is now well into it's fifth year simply continues for all eternity. That means the immense human suffering the UN Security Council claims to be so concerned about continues eternally. The flood of irregular migrants into Europe continues eternally as does the severe terror threat to Europe and beyond.
As such I am struggling to see what option CJTFOIR has other than to range its forces to expel the Turkish invasion force from Syria and seal Erdogan's Pocket. With Turkey nominally being a NATO member that is not a situation someone would wish on their worst enemy.
I can only assume then that Obama has finally accepted that Hillary Clinton won't be replacing him.
So he's decided to drop a massive turd on the Presidential desk for when Donald Trump takes over like some sort of petulant child.
16:05 on 24/8/16 (UK date).
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