This should be read as a direct continuation of Part 1; http://watchitdie.blogspot.in/2016/08/the-2016-isil-games-opening-ceremony.html
Urbanisation: The previous sequence saw the green canopy of the Amazon Rainforest gradually replaced with the geometrically perfect fields and hedgerows of modern agriculture.
This sequence saw those fields and hedgerows suddenly replaced with the grey of concrete. From one end of the arena Parkour runners entered and acrobatically ran across the grey floor. As they ran Brazilian-style urban buildings appeared beneath their feet.
It took you a while to realise that these buildings weren't actually physically rising from the floor but an optical illusion created by a video projection. The way that the performers movements were co-ordinated with each phase of the video projection was highly impressive.
I think this type of video projection was first used in an Olympic ceremony in Beijing, China in 2008. The 2010 Winter Olympics in Vancouver, Canada also made some use of them.
In the 2012 Summer Olympics held in London, UK also partially used video projection in its ceremonies but mainly focused on physical stage furniture. For example the Opening Ceremony saw an actual rural field physically built in the centre of the arena.
When Russia used video projection during the Opening Ceremony 2014 Winter Olympics in Sochi the UK raised many complaints about how the use of video projection rather than physical structures made it hard for viewers to follow the action.
The Russians responded by sarcastically making the video projections progressively bigger and clearer throughout the remaining three ceremonies.
The Brazilian use of video projection here made reference to that argument between Russia and the UK. After all watching from the fixed viewing position of the camera this optical illusion worked perfectly for me. However I did find myself wondering whether people watching from the other side of the stadium had a clue what was going on.
This sequence of course represented the Urbanisation of Brazil as its people moved from rural farms and villages into urban towns and cities.
Much of Brazil's Urbanisation occurred between the 1950's and 1970's.
During this time the architectural school of "Brutalism" was dominant across much of the World. Inspired heavily by the Socialist Utopian ideology of Communism Brutalist design focuses on repeated geometric zones of specific function being grouped together into a unified whole encased in concrete.
Following this design school many Brazilian cities are built around an economic city at the centre containing offices and businesses. Surrounding that you have numerous satellite or dormitory cities where people live and sleep only travelling into the central city to work.
This geometric pattern of a central circle being surrounded by a ring of much smaller circles seems to have heavily influenced the strange golden sculpture that adorns this year's Olympic cauldron.
This type of urban design is far from unique to Brazil. In fact Croydon where I grew up was built in the 1950's to act as a dormitory city for the UK capital London. The 2012 Olympic Park in Stratford now functions as a dormitory town for central London.
The problem with this type of urban design is that it utterly destroys any sense of community.
The economic city is of course teaming with life during the working day but absolutely empty at night. Similarly the dormitory cities are ghost-towns during the day and filled with people sleeping in their beds at night. This all stems from the Communist ideal that people are not individuals but simply worker bees dedicated to the greater good of the nation.
Despite being a Socialist idea the lack of a sense of community causes huge problems in terms of social cohesion and social exclusion.
That has probably been most dramatically highlighted recently in France.
Following the Second World War France underwent a massive period of reconstruction in the 1950's and 1960's. This too followed the Brutalist school with many French cities being built with around a city centre (Ville-centre) ringed by a housing area (Banlieue) which in turn is ringed by a suburban area (Couronne periurbaine).
This occurred at the same time as a mass immigration of predominately Muslim migrants from former French colonies in North Africa. Those migrants became settled in the Banlieues and basically became stuck never able to move out in the richer Couronne periurbaines and properly integrate with wider French society.
The last big explosion of rioting occurred in 2005 when the Paris Banlieues tore themselves apart for 17 days. However a smaller degree of rioting and urban disorder seems to occur in one or other of France's Banlieues every summer.
Just in the last two weeks or so there has been rioting in Beaumont-sur-Oise following the death of a young black man in police custody on July 19th (19/7/16). That has arguably been fuelled by the corrosive effect of US President Obama's Black Lives Matter (BLM) movement.
The way that the lack of social cohesion created by this type of urban design can fuel terrorism was put on sharp display by the July 14th (14/7/16) terror attack in Nice, France.
Nice is famous for its picturesque seafront where millionaires and tourists flock. However behind the old city leading up in the mountains you have these vast, impoverished housing estates where the people of Nice actually live. It was in these estates that the attacker Mohamed Lahouaiej-Bouhlel was recruited by a small terrorist cell.
Following the attack the federal authorities ordered the local authorities to delete all of their CCTV footage. The local authorities claimed that this was part of a cover-up. However it struck me as the federal authorities trying to avoid an awkward conversation about how many local authority employees who live on those housing estates would fail a background check.
As such this extremely dry topic of urban design actually makes a
significant contribution to the discussion about immigration,
integration and terrorism that was such a huge feature of the 2016
Eurovision Song Contest.
Apart from adding to the problems of social cohesion this type of urban design also presents huge problems for the other main theme of this Opening Ceremony - The Battle Against Climate Change.
Obviously if people do not live in the same city in which they work they cannot simply cycle or walk to and from work. Instead they have to use some sort of powered transport. Even if they're using public transport like trains or buses rather than private cars more transport miles means more Greenhouse Gas (ghg) emissions and therefore more Climate Change.
Before US President Obama decided to come in and destroy it a lot of people hoped that a new global Climate Change agreement would rely heavily on developing nations who are just entering the urbanisation phase being almost mentored by nations such as Brazil so they don't make the same mistakes.
In an effort to help pay for both the construction of the 2014 World Cup and the 2016 Summer Olympics alongside generally boosting government revenues in 2013 bus fares were raised across a number of Brazilian cities including Rio. Although I don't have the exact figures for Rio to hand generally these increases were only around 6-7%.
However the way that Brazilian cities are designed in order to get to work people will have to get at least one bus from their dormitory city to the economic city. They would then have to take at least another bus across the economic city. They then have to repeat that journey on the way home.
As a result a 7% rise in a single bus journey quickly turned into a 28% rise for a daily commute and a 140% increase for an average working week.
That very quickly took a huge chunk out of the average Brazilians pay packet and triggered several months of rioting in at least 100 Brazilian cities between April and July 2013. These are sometimes referred to as; "The Confederations Cup Riots."
Faced with similar mass protests over Gezi Park Turkish President/Prime Minister/Emperor Recep Tayyip Erdogan claimed that both the Brazil and Turkish protests were the work of the same global Zionist conspiracy. The Brazilians largely ignored him.
With the protesters calling for an end to government corruption it was really these protests that set in motion the chain of events that saw the Brazilian Senate vote yesterday to hold an impeachment trial of Dilma Rousseff over charges of corruption.
This topic of Brazil's urbanisation is also hugely and specifically important to the history of Rio de Janerio where these games are taking place.
Up until 1960 Rio was Brazil's capital city. Then inspired by the Brutalist design school the Brazilian government decided to design and build a specially planned new city - Brasilia - to become the new capital.
With the seat of government moved to Brasilia by the 1980's all of the government agencies had also left Rio. This caused all of Brazil's financial institutions to leave moving their headquarters to Brasilia. In 2000 the Brazilian stock exchange moved to Sao Paulo leaving Rio as a ghost town with high levels of unemployment and little hope for the future.
The big idea behind hosting the games in Rio was to end this decline and reinvigorate the city.
As the Parkour performers reached the opposite end of the arena a physical structure of buildings emerged from the wall. The Parkour performers dressed in sort of construction overalls then proceeded to climb all over this structure.
For this small period I think the structure was intended to represent Rio's 21st century buildings and serve as a tribute to the great construction effort that had gone into preparing for the games.
If you looked closely at the Parkour performers during this phase you may have noticed that they seemed intended to resemble Japanese Brazilians. This was a little nod to the fact the next Summer Olympics in 2020 are to be held in Tokyo, Japan.
If you were looking closely enough you may also have noticed that the climbers were using the sort of hand-grips common in artificial climbing walls. This was a little nod to the fact that Sport Climbing is to be included for the first time in the 2020 games.
However with the very acrobatic climbers pulling off moves that seemed far more complicated than any sport climber could manage this seemed to be the traditional Olympic sport of Gymnastics looking at the sport climbers and snobbishly going;
"Oh. You think that's difficult enough to be considered a proper sport do you?"
This type of rivalry between the old and new is actually quite common in the Winter Olympics. There the Skiers tend to take a great deal of pleasure in looking down on the Snowboarders.
Although we talk about these being the summer games as the cancellation of rowing events today have demonstrated Rio is currently in the depths of its winter.
However the northern Brazilian state of Roraima is currently enjoying the height of its summer. States such as Amazonas and Para which have the Equator running through them are deeply confused.
At around 17:25 on 10/8/16 (UK date) I just realised I've missed a huge chunk out above. I guess I'll have to be back after dinner to fix that.
Edited at around 18:50 on 10/8/16 (UK date) add above: Urban design and bus fares. Always thrilling.
Edited at around 15:35 on 11/8/16 (UK date) to add;
The large physical structure at the end of the arena then seamlessly morphed to represent Brazil's Favelas or slums. This is a meaning it maintained throughout the rest of the ceremony.
Favelas are unplanned shanty towns built illegally often on land that nobody else wants. As a result it is not really possible to talk about the design features of a favela because the main feature is that there isn't a planned design.
However I think the favela that will be most recognisable to particularly visitors to the Rio Olympics is the Rocinha favela.
This is Brazil's largest and is located in Rio's South Zone a short distance from the famous Copacabana and Impanema beaches. Parts of it are built up the hillside leading the Christ the Redeemer statue.
The Rocinha favela is located close to the Lagoa Rodrigo de Freitas where the rowing events are being held and the Marina da Gloria where the sailing events are being held.
In the run-up to the games much has been made about concerns of the water quality at these venues. They're said to be littered with physical debris like plastic bags along with raw sewage and all the different types of bacteria and microorganisms they bring with them.
The main problem with the water quality at these venues is the Rocinha favela. Being an unplanned, illegal settlement Rocinha like most favelas doesn't have access to basic sanitation services like sewers and garbage collection. As result all the garbage and sewage simply gets chucked into the river to flow downhill into the sea.
The Parkour acrobats in construction overalls then began passing simple boxes made of wood and paper down from the top of the favela to the bottom. At the bottom of the favela these boxes were used as bricks to build a wall between the favela and the city.
On one level this is simply a reference to the fact that the favelas surrounding Rio are often walled off from the city itself as a security measure.
The Brazilian government has put a lot of effort into what is termed "Neighbourhood Pacification" to oust the drug gangs from the favelas and connect the residents to basic services. However many favelas are just so violent simply walling them off is all the government can do to protect citizens in the formal city.
For example on just the first day of the games the media centre at the equestrian venue was hit by gunfire. On Tuesday (9/8/16) a media bus travelling from the hockey venue close to the "City of God/Cidade da Deus" favela was also hit by gunfire. Rather than being attacks on the media these were simply the result of stray fire from the gun battles that rage daily in and around the favelas.
You could though also interpret this building of a wall as a talking point on US Republican Party Presidential nominee Donald Trump's plan to build a wall between the US and Mexico.
If you were a Hillary Clinton supporter you may also have been tempted to think that Brazil were mocking Trump's plan.
Unfortunately if you'd said that aloud you would've immediately exposed yourself as a fool who understands little of Trump's immigration plans and even less about the Democrats attitude towards migrants.
After all whenever the you hear the Democrats appeal to the Hispanic vote you do get the impression they think that all the 19 nations spread across two sub-continents south of Texas are all; "just Mexico." To Portuguese speaking Brazilians that's a little offensive.
I often talk about the Cold War being the golden age of the Olympic movement. However referring to the period between 1945 and 1990 as a "cold war" will often lead to snorts of derision from people who live in the Americas.
It was of course a period in which the US and the Soviet Union fought an almost constant stream on proxy wars for control of the Americas.
For example in April 1961 the US launched the failed "Bay of Pigs" invasion of Cuba to oust the pro-Soviet Fidel Castro. In October 1963 the World was brought to the brink of destruction when the Cuban government allowed the Soviet Union to station nuclear missiles on the island.
Brazil itself got off rather lightly with the US conducting a military coup in the country named "Brother Sam" in 1964 leading to Brazil being ruled by a military dictatorship until 1985.
Similarly Brazil's neighbour Argentina only had to suffer through the decade long US sponsored "Dirty War" and a US-backed fascist dictatorship that lasted from 1976 to 1983.
It was Central America that was particularly hard hit. There it was almost a weekly occurrence that some US-backed fascist group would stage a coup only for a Soviet-backed Communist group to stage a counter-coup and the entire process would continue.
One of the main fascist groups the US backed were the Honduras based "Contras" or "Counter-Revolutionaries" who were trying to overthrow the government of the Sandinista National Liberation Front in neighbouring Nicaragua. Due to their brutal methods including death squads US Congress eventually cut-off funding to the Contras.
So the CIA simply teamed up with Panamanian drug lord Pablo Escobar to help the Contras sell crack cocaine in the US to fund their war.
With that the South American drug cartels that continue to destabilise the entire continent were born. And along with them the US "Ghetto Culture" that Obama and Black Lives Matter are so proud of.
The violence of first the US-backed fascists like the Contras and then the violence of the drug cartels has torn much of Central America to pieces. For example Honduras currently experiences one of the highest murder rates in the World with people being killed in numbers to rival a warzone.
In turn this violence has destabilised those nations making them even poorer which in turn fuels more violence.
This endless cycle of violence, poverty and instability has left many in Central America trying to escape to the safety of the US.
To do this they pay the drug cartels huge fees of around USD20,000 to smuggle their children up through Central America across Mexico's border with the US.
As people traffickers tend not to be very nice people a lot of those making the journey are killed or seriously injured in the process. If the parents can't pay their debts in time the children are frequently sold into forced labour (slavery) or child prostitution.
This epidemic of human trafficking is every bit as horrific if not worse than the conditions experienced by irregular migrants on the Balkan route into the European Union (EU).
It also further destabilises the countries through which these migrants are trafficked. At the moment there is a big row brewing between Costa Rica and Panama over Panama's decision to open its border allowing a new flood of migrants into Costa Rica.
The US Democrat Party and in particular US President Obama have looked at this trail of human misery and seen nothing but an opportunity to consolidate their own power.
Back in November 2014 Obama announced plans to violate the US Constitution in order to grant amnesty and then citizenship to 5 million+ of these migrants through executive action.
Obama's thinking being that these freshly minted US citizens would owe such a debt to the Democrat Party they would help the party win traditionally Republican states such as Texas.
Obama and the Democrats didn't seem to care one iota that by ending the deportation of families with children under 18 he was formalising the drug cartels business model encouraging more parents to smuggle more children into the US.
This of course means more profits for the cartels making the violence and poverty worse further destabilising Central and South America.
Thankfully due to the public opposition led by Trump's call to; "Build That Wall!" the Democrats horrific and exploitative alliance with the drug cartels has been stopped in its tracks.
In January 2016 the Obama administration was instead forced to work with the United Nations (UN) to establish screening centres for refugees in Central American nations such as Honduras, El Salvador and Guatemala.
Operating rather like the system for Syrian refugees people in Central America now have an alternative to paying the drug cartels by applying for refugee status in the US. Those who are successful will then be safely transported to the US.
However much to the Democrats disappointment being classed as refugees they won't be able to vote n US elections.
Quite apart from taking the fate of these people out of the hands of drug cartels and treating them with basic human dignity the fact that the US is now classifying people fleeing violence in Central America as refugees opens the door to the possibility that the US will admit to its role in destabilising the region causing the violence that people are fleeing.
That day may be coming sooner rather than later. Just two days ago the US announced that it will be making public files on its role in Argentina's Dirty War.
As a result I think you'll find many Central and South American nations will be overjoyed to see Trump beat out Hillary Clinton in November.
At 17:45 on 11/8/16 (UK date) I still not finished this section.
Edited at around 19:05 on 11/8/16 (UK date) to add;
The box wall made way for a model of the box-plane that Brazilian aviation pioneer Alberto Santos-Dumont flew on October 23rd 1906 (23/10/06).
Although this came almost three years after the Wright brothers made the first powered flight on December 14th 1903 (14/12/03) there were no witnesses to confirm that the Wright brothers flight ever took place. As such Santos-Dumont continues to be recognised both in Brazil and by the French Fédération Aéronautique Internationale as the man who made the first powered flight.
Beyond showing off a famous Brazilian and teasing Americans further this provides a way to bring up that despite its reputation as "Not a Serious Country" Brazilian actually has a thriving high-tech sector including in aviation.
The company Embraer which makes military, cargo and private aircraft regularly competes with Canada's Bombardier for the title of third largest aircraft manufacturer behind Boeing and Airbus.
This rivalry between Embraer and Bombardier is so great that they sued each other in the World Trade Organisation (WTO). The WTO ruled that both the Brazilian and Canadian governments had illegally subsidised Embraer and Bombardier respectively.
The model of Santos-Dumonts' plane then proceeded to take off and soar out of the arena.
This provided an opportunity to show off more optical trickery. Initially only the video projected runway beneath the model moved backwards give the impression the model was moving forward. However the model itself then began to move forward being towed along an almost invisible rail.
The Opening Ceremony then cut to a partially computer animated video sequence of the "plane" flying around the skies of Rio.
This obviously allowed the organisers to give TV viewers an idea of what Rio looks like.
However it also gave them opportunity to clear and re-arrange the arena in preparation for the next sequence.
19:40 on 11/8/16 (UK date).
Wednesday, 10 August 2016
Monday, 8 August 2016
The 2016 ISIL Games: Opening Ceremony.
"(Woman engaging in sport) is the most unaesthetic sight human eyes could contemplate."
Those are the words of French Baron Pierre de Coubertin - the founder of the Olympic movement.
He was inspired by William Brooks a British surgeon and Magistrate who founded an annual sporting contest in the town of Wenlock in the UK in 1850 to "promote the moral and physical improvement of the working classes by the encouragement of outdoor recreation."
As such the Olympic spirit has always been the exploitation of the greed and selfishness of the working class in order to make them better servants of the elite aristocracy.
With exploitation and subjugation being so central to the ethos of the Olympics it is almost natural that the 2016 Summer games has become a mass celebration of the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) associated Islamist terror groups.
Before that got underway though Brazil who have the misfortune of hosting this atrocity in Rio de Janerio attempted to set an alternative agenda for the games through Friday's (5/8/16) Opening Ceremony.
These ceremonies traditionally allow the host nation/city to introduce itself, its culture and its history to the world.
On this occasion even I would find that useful because living in Europe and been particularly focused on the Middle-East and Africa events in South America have long represented a void in my knowledge.
With the Middle-East in particular being extremely busy at the moment I was looking forward to the opportunity to fill in some of the gaps of my understanding of the region.
One thing I do know about Brazil though is that in global politics at the moment they are really famous for to main things.
The first of these is Brazil's impressive racial diversity and racial integration.
Although it is far from compulsory you can say that people in Britain tend to be white. People in China tend to be Asian. People in Nigeria tend to be black.
You really cannot do this in Brazil because there is no dominate ethnic group. In fact most individual Brazilians themselves tend to be a mixture of races.
For example during the Opening Ceremony I spotted one female performer/volunteer. She had Hispanic, white skin, Afro hair and Oriental features. That is far from a unique look in Brazil.
The second thing Brazil is famous for the Amazon Rainforest. Although it isn't located exclusively within Brazil around 60% of it is and it takes up around 60% of Brazil's total landmass.
Being responsible for 60% of the World's largest Rainforest has forced Brazil to act as something of a leader within global efforts to combat Climate Change.
Rather than being a cheap boast this has placed a huge responsibility on Brazil within the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) which was actually born out of the 1992 Earth Summit held in Rio de Janerio.
Within UNFCCC negotiations Brazil has had to represent the views of all the Rainforest nations such as Indonesia and the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). As one of the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa) Brazil has also had to represent the views of all the developing nations. As a South American nation Brazil has also had to represent the views of all the South American nations.
This sees Brazil torn in many different directions by the competing interests.
For example Brazil really founded the Reducing Emissions Deforestation and Degradation Plus (REDD+) program. In UNFCCC jargon this is known as a non-market based mechanism based on government-to-government spending rather than free market economics. Despite this Brazil is not ideologically opposed to free market economics.
However within in South America there are a number of nations - particularly Venezuela and Bolivia - who are ideologically opposed to capitalism and free market economics.
These nations and others across the globe were backed by China to block any free market solution to Climate Change. However making ample use of free markets themselves China is only blocking those solutions as a way of making sure it doesn't have to reduce its own Greenhouse Gas (ghg) emissions.
If you're confused by all that you're just starting to get a small taste of what Brazil has been up against within Climate Change negotiations.
The Video Countdown: It is a tradition that all Olympic ceremonies begin with a short video sequence which prominently feature a countdown from 10 to 1.
The purpose is to allow all the local broadcasters who are taking the official International Olympic Committee (IOC) video feed to co-ordinate their coverage so they don't miss the start of the ceremony itself.
Brazil's video sequence featured different sports being done in different locations in and around Rio. So you had people swimming in the sea. People running through the city. People cycling in the mountains. People swimming in a city pool. Someone Hangliding over that famous forest etc.
The sequence featured both traditional cyclists and a BMX rider along with surfers and skateboarders. This is a reference to the fact that Surfing and Skateboarding are to be introduced as new sports at the 2020 Summer Games while BMX is at its second games having been introduced in 2012.
What I found interesting is that after every single one of these Olympic sports you saw people playing football or soccer on a traditional pitch, in the street and even on the beach.
This seemed to be Brazil's way of saying that it was much more excited about hosting the 2014 World Cup than the ISIL games. That in turn promotes discussion about how the IOC can get this football mad nation more interested in Olympic sports.
The big thing however about the video sequence is that it broke with tradition by not including a 10 to 1 countdown.
Geometry: As the video sequence ended the action moved to inside the arena. Here hundreds of performers dressed head-to-toe in silver foil stood in groups of four each holding the corner or a silver foil - I suppose pillows.
This of course was a reference to the foil blankets that emergency workers hand out to refugees/irregular migrants who have just been rescued and the victims of terrorist attacks. Although it was far from the most horrific of the day the image of the corpse of a small child shrouded in a foil blanket following the July 14th (14/67/16) terror attack in Nice, France is likely to stay with me for a while yet.
As part of their celebration of the terrorism, ethnic cleansing and genocide of ISIL this is an issue the IOC has been very keen to have dominate these games. They've even gone so far as to include a Refugee Team made up of people who would normally compete as independents under the Olympic flag.
Terrorism and irregular migration have certainly been major issues across much of the Middle-East, Europe and Africa. Particularly at the 2016 Eurovision Song Contest.
Throughout this sequence the performers moved their pillows about to form a variety of Geometric shapes. This was to introduce the main, recurring theme of the ceremony - the mathematical discipline of Geometry.
This is obviously quite a strange theme for the type of ceremony that normally focuses on the artistic rather than the scientific. However back in the 1960's Brazil was labelled - by one of its own diplomats - as; "Not a serious country."
What they meant by this is that Brazil is great at organising spectacular carnivals and street parties but utterly terrible at things like science, maths and general good governance. The idea of Brazil bidding for and being awarded the 2016 games was to give it an opportunity to show that it can do the serious business alongside all the fun.
It was during this sequence that the giant 10 to 1 countdown finally made its appearance being projected onto the performers inside the arena.
This was intended to promote discussion over whether we still need the traditional video sequence countdown. After all broadcasting technology has certainly moved on dramatically in even just the last 15 years.
This issue of time passing and the world moving on is particularly relevant to the Olympic movement.
The golden age of the Olympics was really during the Cold War period between 1945 and 1990. Since then the value of the Olympics as a global political, cultural and sporting spectacle has utterly collapsed almost leaving it struggling to find a purpose in the modern era.
I certainly will say that allowing the 2016 games to be hijacked by a small group of extremists certainly does nothing to help the Olympics regain its relevance to the modern world.
During the countdown phase the performers started banging on their pillows effectively turning them into a type of traditional Brazilian drum - I think a Ring-Repique - which is used in Brazil's famous Samba music.
This was a reference to the 2008 Opening Ceremony in Beijing, China which featured thousands of traditional Chinese drummers. Depending on how you look at it this could be viewed as Brazil showing support for China or providing a Brazilian alternative to China on issues such as Climate Change policy.
The sequence ended with some of the performers arranging themselves in formation and turning over their pillows to form the traditional Peace Sign. However this particular Peace Sign was upside down and had leaves growing from its branches giving it the appearance of a tree.
This could be a reference to Brazil's large ethnically Japanese population. After all the Japanese symbol for "Tree" is basically a line drawing of a tree. The Japanese symbol for "Wood" is two trees. The Japanese symbol for "Forest" is three trees.
However I think this was mainly to introduce the other main, recurring theme of the ceremony. A call for "Environmental Peace."
Basically that we end the war against nature the human race seems to have been fighting for the last 200 or so years.
At around 17:45 on 8/8/16 (UK date) obviously I'm going to be back to add a lot more after dinner.
Edited at around 19:00 on 8/8/16 (UK date) to add;
The Brazilian Flag & National Anthem: It is part of IOC protocol that every Opening Ceremony must feature the raising of the host nation's national flag and performance of its national anthem.
As the Brazilian flag was raised the Brazilian national anthem "Hino Nacional Brasileiro/Brazilian National Anthem" was performed on an acoustic guitar by a man wearing suit and an open collared shirt. He was surrounded by a string quartet in traditional white tie who didn't play a single note.
This was obviously in stark contrast to the pomp and pageantry of many national anthems. The Russian national anthem in particular is a force to be reckoned with.
This contrast helped highlight Brazil as a not quite poor but certainly developing nation along with it's famously casual and laid back reputation.
The Birth of the Nation: In telling the history of the nation the Rio Opening Ceremony went back a great long way. All the way back to the birth of life on earth itself.
So the sequence began with the waves of the ocean. This was followed by the emergence of microorganisms such as bacteria amid the water. Then became insects, plants and the Rainforest before finally you had the emergence of man.
These different stages of biological development were represented by sculptures that were wheeled around the arena.
Those familiar with the beginnings of life of earth will know that originally that there was only a single continent known as "Pangaea."
The much mocked amongst experts 2006 film on global warming "An Inconvenient Truth" makes rather famous reference to this with Al Gore telling a story about how Brazil used to physically part of West Africa.
The fact that the earth used to be one big continent destroys this claim that certain groups of humans are indigenous to certain nations. This has been a particularly large issue amid recent climate change negotiations.
Taken in that light the start of this sequence with life emerging from the oceans before heading into the Rainforest could be viewed as a reference to how the people who like to claim to be indigenous Brazilian indians in fact are migrants arriving by sea from places such as Micronesia.
Indigenous rights are not only a big issue within climate change negotiations but are also a big issue in domestic Brazilian politics along with the politics of many other South American nations.
As such this pointing out that the indigenous indians aren't actually that indigenous could be seen as something of a mockery of those protesters. However it's the government's refusal to take them seriously that has got them protesting in the first place.
Particularly at the 2016 Eurovision Song Contest the American Black Lives Matter (BLM) movement's inability to realise that so-called Native Americans are not only ethnically Caucasian but immigrants from places like Scandinavia and Russia has become a convenient way to mock the group's founder and current US President Barack Obama.
The story of human life in Brazil did indeed though begin deep in the Rainforest with the indigenous tribes. The forest was brought to life through the use of lots of green light and a video projection onto the floor to the arena that represented grass or the green of the forest canopy.
The centrepiece though was dozens if not hundreds of giant elastic bands dangling for a beam running almost the length of the arena.
Natural rubber of course comes from the Hevea brasiliensis tree. As the Latin name suggests this tree is native to the Brazilian Rainforest.
The way that the Amazonian tribes are able to manufacture rubber without killing the trees is an example of man living in harmony with the natural environment rather than being in constant conflict with it.
The performers in this sequence who were all indigenous indians who live in the Amazon almost made the rubber bands dance forming a range of geometric shapes and patterns. They finished by twisting them to form three "Ocas" which are traditional indian huts.
The main theme though was to bring the rubber bands out into the shape of a tent.
This was a reference to the way that the canopy of the Rainforests acts as the main shelter for the indians. This in turned served as a metaphor for how the earth's atmosphere - particularly the Greenhouse gas layer - serves to shelter all life on earth. Including humans.
I personally found that to be a particularly poetic way of making a complex point.
Next came the Portuguese colonialists of Pedro Alvares Cabral. To the ominous sound of thunder they arrived in the arena in ship structures which were wheeled around. As you would imagine their arrival led to a strange stand-off with the indigenous indians which at the same time managed to be curious and hostile.
Almost immediately as the Portuguese had arrived the African slaves the brought with them followed. These were shown in the yoke of a ploughing machine with big blocks on their feet representing their shackles.
What I found interesting is that the Portuguese were done up in white-face to signify that they were lighter skinned than the indians. The African slaves were also done up in white-face to signify that they were the property of the Portuguese.
If you've heard of things like "The Black & White Minstrel Show" you would know that doing up white people in black-face was a comedy staple in the US for much of the 20th century. However the practice is now effectively banned as extremely racist and offensive to black people.
By doing black people up in white-face the Opening Ceremony seemed to be celebrating Brazil's racial diversity and integration. Whilst at the same time seeming to further mock US President Obama and Black Lives Matter who relish racial division.
We were then introduced to more groups immigrants who come to make Brazil their home.
This began with merchants from the Middle-East and Syria in particular.
Rather than being a reference to the current war in Syria this simply reflected that a large number of Syrian and other Middle-Eastern merchants moved to Brazil in the 18th century. People of Syrian ancestry make up around 1% of modern Brazil's population.
Sadly that does touch on the threat to the Rio games from Islamist terrorism. After all if you thought that Brazil doesn't have a pool of potential Islamist recruits you would be quite wrong.
People from the Middle-East may complain that the way the Middle-Eastern immigrants were represented in the ceremony made them look more as if they came from India and Pakistan.
However that was done really to kill two birds with one stone rather than cause offence because a lot of immigrants from Indian and Pakistan arrived in Brazil at the same time as those from the Middle-East.
Finally the Japanese arrived waving their red banners.
Following the end of slavery many Japanese labourers arrived in Brazil to work on coffee plantations in the early part of the 20th century. Many of them made Brazil their home and as a result Brazil has the largest ethnically Japanese population outside of Japan.
This came as something of a surprise to a lot of people during the 2014 World Cup when Japan suddenly emerged as one of the best supported teams in the competition.
Also during UNFCCC negotiations I once mistakenly attributed a Brazilian idea to Japan. I tried to cover my error by jokingly claiming it must have been a Japanese Brazilian who came up with the idea.
As each of these new groups arrived they cut a path through the Rainforest canopy that continued to be projected onto the arena floor. The Portuguese and the Japanese in particular laid down tracks of elaborate geometric tribal art. It was the circular designs in particular that caught my eye.
It is tradition that as one Olympics ends a package of ideas and issues is handed from one host to the next. With the previous 2012 Summer Olympics being held in London, UK I am actually quite a large part of the package handed over to Brazil.
During the Closing Ceremony of the 2012 Para-Olympics much was made of the fact that I have an elaborate circular, geometric tribal tattoo. That tattoo was done by a Brazilian artist under the supervision of an Israeli.
Mainly though as the different groups cut through the Rainforest they left in their wake the geometrically perfect fields and hedgerows of modern agriculture. This is particularly true of the African slaves and their giant plowing machines.
This was a clear reference to the way that much of the Amazon Rainforest has been cut down to make way for agriculture - particularly cattle ranching. This is a continuing problem and one that is increasing ghg emissions making Climate Change much worse.
Through its leadership in UNFCCC negotiations and in particular the REDD+ program along with market based mechanisms such as carbon trading Brazil has been trying to solve this problem.
The idea being that people pay to allow the Rainforests to scrub their ghg emissions out of the atmosphere.
This would allow Brazilians to become the farmers of the forest rather than forcing them to chop it down to grow cash crops like sugar cane.
20:50 on 8/8/16 (UK date). Part 2 to follow.
Those are the words of French Baron Pierre de Coubertin - the founder of the Olympic movement.
He was inspired by William Brooks a British surgeon and Magistrate who founded an annual sporting contest in the town of Wenlock in the UK in 1850 to "promote the moral and physical improvement of the working classes by the encouragement of outdoor recreation."
As such the Olympic spirit has always been the exploitation of the greed and selfishness of the working class in order to make them better servants of the elite aristocracy.
With exploitation and subjugation being so central to the ethos of the Olympics it is almost natural that the 2016 Summer games has become a mass celebration of the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) associated Islamist terror groups.
Before that got underway though Brazil who have the misfortune of hosting this atrocity in Rio de Janerio attempted to set an alternative agenda for the games through Friday's (5/8/16) Opening Ceremony.
These ceremonies traditionally allow the host nation/city to introduce itself, its culture and its history to the world.
On this occasion even I would find that useful because living in Europe and been particularly focused on the Middle-East and Africa events in South America have long represented a void in my knowledge.
With the Middle-East in particular being extremely busy at the moment I was looking forward to the opportunity to fill in some of the gaps of my understanding of the region.
One thing I do know about Brazil though is that in global politics at the moment they are really famous for to main things.
The first of these is Brazil's impressive racial diversity and racial integration.
Although it is far from compulsory you can say that people in Britain tend to be white. People in China tend to be Asian. People in Nigeria tend to be black.
You really cannot do this in Brazil because there is no dominate ethnic group. In fact most individual Brazilians themselves tend to be a mixture of races.
For example during the Opening Ceremony I spotted one female performer/volunteer. She had Hispanic, white skin, Afro hair and Oriental features. That is far from a unique look in Brazil.
The second thing Brazil is famous for the Amazon Rainforest. Although it isn't located exclusively within Brazil around 60% of it is and it takes up around 60% of Brazil's total landmass.
Being responsible for 60% of the World's largest Rainforest has forced Brazil to act as something of a leader within global efforts to combat Climate Change.
Rather than being a cheap boast this has placed a huge responsibility on Brazil within the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) which was actually born out of the 1992 Earth Summit held in Rio de Janerio.
Within UNFCCC negotiations Brazil has had to represent the views of all the Rainforest nations such as Indonesia and the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). As one of the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa) Brazil has also had to represent the views of all the developing nations. As a South American nation Brazil has also had to represent the views of all the South American nations.
This sees Brazil torn in many different directions by the competing interests.
For example Brazil really founded the Reducing Emissions Deforestation and Degradation Plus (REDD+) program. In UNFCCC jargon this is known as a non-market based mechanism based on government-to-government spending rather than free market economics. Despite this Brazil is not ideologically opposed to free market economics.
However within in South America there are a number of nations - particularly Venezuela and Bolivia - who are ideologically opposed to capitalism and free market economics.
These nations and others across the globe were backed by China to block any free market solution to Climate Change. However making ample use of free markets themselves China is only blocking those solutions as a way of making sure it doesn't have to reduce its own Greenhouse Gas (ghg) emissions.
If you're confused by all that you're just starting to get a small taste of what Brazil has been up against within Climate Change negotiations.
The Video Countdown: It is a tradition that all Olympic ceremonies begin with a short video sequence which prominently feature a countdown from 10 to 1.
The purpose is to allow all the local broadcasters who are taking the official International Olympic Committee (IOC) video feed to co-ordinate their coverage so they don't miss the start of the ceremony itself.
Brazil's video sequence featured different sports being done in different locations in and around Rio. So you had people swimming in the sea. People running through the city. People cycling in the mountains. People swimming in a city pool. Someone Hangliding over that famous forest etc.
The sequence featured both traditional cyclists and a BMX rider along with surfers and skateboarders. This is a reference to the fact that Surfing and Skateboarding are to be introduced as new sports at the 2020 Summer Games while BMX is at its second games having been introduced in 2012.
What I found interesting is that after every single one of these Olympic sports you saw people playing football or soccer on a traditional pitch, in the street and even on the beach.
This seemed to be Brazil's way of saying that it was much more excited about hosting the 2014 World Cup than the ISIL games. That in turn promotes discussion about how the IOC can get this football mad nation more interested in Olympic sports.
The big thing however about the video sequence is that it broke with tradition by not including a 10 to 1 countdown.
Geometry: As the video sequence ended the action moved to inside the arena. Here hundreds of performers dressed head-to-toe in silver foil stood in groups of four each holding the corner or a silver foil - I suppose pillows.
This of course was a reference to the foil blankets that emergency workers hand out to refugees/irregular migrants who have just been rescued and the victims of terrorist attacks. Although it was far from the most horrific of the day the image of the corpse of a small child shrouded in a foil blanket following the July 14th (14/67/16) terror attack in Nice, France is likely to stay with me for a while yet.
As part of their celebration of the terrorism, ethnic cleansing and genocide of ISIL this is an issue the IOC has been very keen to have dominate these games. They've even gone so far as to include a Refugee Team made up of people who would normally compete as independents under the Olympic flag.
Terrorism and irregular migration have certainly been major issues across much of the Middle-East, Europe and Africa. Particularly at the 2016 Eurovision Song Contest.
Throughout this sequence the performers moved their pillows about to form a variety of Geometric shapes. This was to introduce the main, recurring theme of the ceremony - the mathematical discipline of Geometry.
This is obviously quite a strange theme for the type of ceremony that normally focuses on the artistic rather than the scientific. However back in the 1960's Brazil was labelled - by one of its own diplomats - as; "Not a serious country."
What they meant by this is that Brazil is great at organising spectacular carnivals and street parties but utterly terrible at things like science, maths and general good governance. The idea of Brazil bidding for and being awarded the 2016 games was to give it an opportunity to show that it can do the serious business alongside all the fun.
It was during this sequence that the giant 10 to 1 countdown finally made its appearance being projected onto the performers inside the arena.
This was intended to promote discussion over whether we still need the traditional video sequence countdown. After all broadcasting technology has certainly moved on dramatically in even just the last 15 years.
This issue of time passing and the world moving on is particularly relevant to the Olympic movement.
The golden age of the Olympics was really during the Cold War period between 1945 and 1990. Since then the value of the Olympics as a global political, cultural and sporting spectacle has utterly collapsed almost leaving it struggling to find a purpose in the modern era.
I certainly will say that allowing the 2016 games to be hijacked by a small group of extremists certainly does nothing to help the Olympics regain its relevance to the modern world.
During the countdown phase the performers started banging on their pillows effectively turning them into a type of traditional Brazilian drum - I think a Ring-Repique - which is used in Brazil's famous Samba music.
This was a reference to the 2008 Opening Ceremony in Beijing, China which featured thousands of traditional Chinese drummers. Depending on how you look at it this could be viewed as Brazil showing support for China or providing a Brazilian alternative to China on issues such as Climate Change policy.
The sequence ended with some of the performers arranging themselves in formation and turning over their pillows to form the traditional Peace Sign. However this particular Peace Sign was upside down and had leaves growing from its branches giving it the appearance of a tree.
This could be a reference to Brazil's large ethnically Japanese population. After all the Japanese symbol for "Tree" is basically a line drawing of a tree. The Japanese symbol for "Wood" is two trees. The Japanese symbol for "Forest" is three trees.
However I think this was mainly to introduce the other main, recurring theme of the ceremony. A call for "Environmental Peace."
Basically that we end the war against nature the human race seems to have been fighting for the last 200 or so years.
At around 17:45 on 8/8/16 (UK date) obviously I'm going to be back to add a lot more after dinner.
Edited at around 19:00 on 8/8/16 (UK date) to add;
The Brazilian Flag & National Anthem: It is part of IOC protocol that every Opening Ceremony must feature the raising of the host nation's national flag and performance of its national anthem.
As the Brazilian flag was raised the Brazilian national anthem "Hino Nacional Brasileiro/Brazilian National Anthem" was performed on an acoustic guitar by a man wearing suit and an open collared shirt. He was surrounded by a string quartet in traditional white tie who didn't play a single note.
This was obviously in stark contrast to the pomp and pageantry of many national anthems. The Russian national anthem in particular is a force to be reckoned with.
This contrast helped highlight Brazil as a not quite poor but certainly developing nation along with it's famously casual and laid back reputation.
The Birth of the Nation: In telling the history of the nation the Rio Opening Ceremony went back a great long way. All the way back to the birth of life on earth itself.
So the sequence began with the waves of the ocean. This was followed by the emergence of microorganisms such as bacteria amid the water. Then became insects, plants and the Rainforest before finally you had the emergence of man.
These different stages of biological development were represented by sculptures that were wheeled around the arena.
Those familiar with the beginnings of life of earth will know that originally that there was only a single continent known as "Pangaea."
The much mocked amongst experts 2006 film on global warming "An Inconvenient Truth" makes rather famous reference to this with Al Gore telling a story about how Brazil used to physically part of West Africa.
The fact that the earth used to be one big continent destroys this claim that certain groups of humans are indigenous to certain nations. This has been a particularly large issue amid recent climate change negotiations.
Taken in that light the start of this sequence with life emerging from the oceans before heading into the Rainforest could be viewed as a reference to how the people who like to claim to be indigenous Brazilian indians in fact are migrants arriving by sea from places such as Micronesia.
Indigenous rights are not only a big issue within climate change negotiations but are also a big issue in domestic Brazilian politics along with the politics of many other South American nations.
As such this pointing out that the indigenous indians aren't actually that indigenous could be seen as something of a mockery of those protesters. However it's the government's refusal to take them seriously that has got them protesting in the first place.
Particularly at the 2016 Eurovision Song Contest the American Black Lives Matter (BLM) movement's inability to realise that so-called Native Americans are not only ethnically Caucasian but immigrants from places like Scandinavia and Russia has become a convenient way to mock the group's founder and current US President Barack Obama.
The story of human life in Brazil did indeed though begin deep in the Rainforest with the indigenous tribes. The forest was brought to life through the use of lots of green light and a video projection onto the floor to the arena that represented grass or the green of the forest canopy.
The centrepiece though was dozens if not hundreds of giant elastic bands dangling for a beam running almost the length of the arena.
Natural rubber of course comes from the Hevea brasiliensis tree. As the Latin name suggests this tree is native to the Brazilian Rainforest.
The way that the Amazonian tribes are able to manufacture rubber without killing the trees is an example of man living in harmony with the natural environment rather than being in constant conflict with it.
The performers in this sequence who were all indigenous indians who live in the Amazon almost made the rubber bands dance forming a range of geometric shapes and patterns. They finished by twisting them to form three "Ocas" which are traditional indian huts.
The main theme though was to bring the rubber bands out into the shape of a tent.
This was a reference to the way that the canopy of the Rainforests acts as the main shelter for the indians. This in turned served as a metaphor for how the earth's atmosphere - particularly the Greenhouse gas layer - serves to shelter all life on earth. Including humans.
I personally found that to be a particularly poetic way of making a complex point.
Next came the Portuguese colonialists of Pedro Alvares Cabral. To the ominous sound of thunder they arrived in the arena in ship structures which were wheeled around. As you would imagine their arrival led to a strange stand-off with the indigenous indians which at the same time managed to be curious and hostile.
Almost immediately as the Portuguese had arrived the African slaves the brought with them followed. These were shown in the yoke of a ploughing machine with big blocks on their feet representing their shackles.
What I found interesting is that the Portuguese were done up in white-face to signify that they were lighter skinned than the indians. The African slaves were also done up in white-face to signify that they were the property of the Portuguese.
If you've heard of things like "The Black & White Minstrel Show" you would know that doing up white people in black-face was a comedy staple in the US for much of the 20th century. However the practice is now effectively banned as extremely racist and offensive to black people.
By doing black people up in white-face the Opening Ceremony seemed to be celebrating Brazil's racial diversity and integration. Whilst at the same time seeming to further mock US President Obama and Black Lives Matter who relish racial division.
We were then introduced to more groups immigrants who come to make Brazil their home.
This began with merchants from the Middle-East and Syria in particular.
Rather than being a reference to the current war in Syria this simply reflected that a large number of Syrian and other Middle-Eastern merchants moved to Brazil in the 18th century. People of Syrian ancestry make up around 1% of modern Brazil's population.
Sadly that does touch on the threat to the Rio games from Islamist terrorism. After all if you thought that Brazil doesn't have a pool of potential Islamist recruits you would be quite wrong.
People from the Middle-East may complain that the way the Middle-Eastern immigrants were represented in the ceremony made them look more as if they came from India and Pakistan.
However that was done really to kill two birds with one stone rather than cause offence because a lot of immigrants from Indian and Pakistan arrived in Brazil at the same time as those from the Middle-East.
Finally the Japanese arrived waving their red banners.
Following the end of slavery many Japanese labourers arrived in Brazil to work on coffee plantations in the early part of the 20th century. Many of them made Brazil their home and as a result Brazil has the largest ethnically Japanese population outside of Japan.
This came as something of a surprise to a lot of people during the 2014 World Cup when Japan suddenly emerged as one of the best supported teams in the competition.
Also during UNFCCC negotiations I once mistakenly attributed a Brazilian idea to Japan. I tried to cover my error by jokingly claiming it must have been a Japanese Brazilian who came up with the idea.
As each of these new groups arrived they cut a path through the Rainforest canopy that continued to be projected onto the arena floor. The Portuguese and the Japanese in particular laid down tracks of elaborate geometric tribal art. It was the circular designs in particular that caught my eye.
It is tradition that as one Olympics ends a package of ideas and issues is handed from one host to the next. With the previous 2012 Summer Olympics being held in London, UK I am actually quite a large part of the package handed over to Brazil.
During the Closing Ceremony of the 2012 Para-Olympics much was made of the fact that I have an elaborate circular, geometric tribal tattoo. That tattoo was done by a Brazilian artist under the supervision of an Israeli.
Mainly though as the different groups cut through the Rainforest they left in their wake the geometrically perfect fields and hedgerows of modern agriculture. This is particularly true of the African slaves and their giant plowing machines.
This was a clear reference to the way that much of the Amazon Rainforest has been cut down to make way for agriculture - particularly cattle ranching. This is a continuing problem and one that is increasing ghg emissions making Climate Change much worse.
Through its leadership in UNFCCC negotiations and in particular the REDD+ program along with market based mechanisms such as carbon trading Brazil has been trying to solve this problem.
The idea being that people pay to allow the Rainforests to scrub their ghg emissions out of the atmosphere.
This would allow Brazilians to become the farmers of the forest rather than forcing them to chop it down to grow cash crops like sugar cane.
20:50 on 8/8/16 (UK date). Part 2 to follow.
Saturday, 6 August 2016
Operation Featherweight: Month 25, Week 2, Day 7.
In my previous post on the topic I highlighted the importance of a stretch of the border between Turkey and Syria which has become know as either; "Erdogan's Pocket" or "Garvaghy Road."
This area stretches for roughly 100km (60 miles) between the town of Azaz in the west and the Euphrates River in the east. It extends around 55km (35 miles) south to Aleppo City. It functions as the main supply route for the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) and the associated Army of Conquest/Jaish al-Fatah (JAF) Islamist coalition. It can also serve as an escape route for these terror groups as they are finally driven from Iraq and Syria.
I also highlighted how Erdogan's Pocket has come under intense pressure recently. To the east the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF/QSD) coalition have been conducting an operation to liberate the town of Manbij which sits on the western bank of the Euphrates. To the south the Syrian Arab Army (SAA) have been moving the block Erdogan's pocket as it enters the north of Aleppo City via the Castello Road.
This of course is not the first time that Erdogan's Pocket has come under intense pressure. It's not even the first time this year.
Back in January the SAA backed by Russia airpower managed to liberate the village of Rabia from the Syrian Turkmen Brigades (STB) who are an irregular and therefore illegal division of the Turkish military currently operating within Syria as part of the JAF coalition . Rabia sits roughly 35km (20 miles) north-west of Latakia City and around 105km (60 miles) south-west of Aleppo City. The liberation of Rabia meant that the STB had been completely ousted from Latakia province.
Following that success Russia decided to support the Kurdish People's Protection Units (YPG) in the so-called "Afrin Canton" who operated outside of the QSD coalition. Their objective was capture first the town of Tall Rifat which sits around 15km (9 miles) south of Azaz which they achieved. From there they were expected to continue their western advance until the linked up with the QSD on the eastern bank of the Euphrates. Thus sealing Erdogan's Pocket.
It was at this point the supposedly independent and impartial international aid agencies such as the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) and the United Nations (UN) along with many western human rights bodies such as Human Rights Watch and much of the western media suddenly decided that there was a looming humanitarian catastrophe in the town of Madaya. This sits around 25km (14 miles) north-west of the Syrian capital Damascus.
As I explained at the time the humanitarian situation in towns like Madaya is being created entirely by the JAF forces. What they do is seize any food aid provided by groups such as the UN and the ICRC. Then rather like drug dealers they restrict the supply of that food to the civilians they are effectively holding hostage in order to drive up prices. It is through these artificially inflated prices that the JAF fund their violence in an extremely nasty form of taxation.
However the supposedly impartial aid groups such as the ICRC and the UN who are effectively funding JAF decided to blame the entire situation on the Syrian government and Russia. They used the faux outrage their misleading statements produced to put pressure on the Syrian government and Russia to agree to a number of 'humanitarian ceasefires.' Thus stopping the YPG's operation on Tall Rifat dead keeping Erdogan's Pocket open for a little while longer.
The YPG operation against Tall Rifat and then Azaz was also halted by the fact the Turkish military started shelling them intensely from the Turkish side of the border. For some reason neither the US-led coalition Combined Joint Task Force: Operation Inherent Resolve (CJTFOIR) nor the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) were unwilling or unable to stop their member Turkey taking wholly illegal military action in support of ISIL in defiance of several UN Security Council (UNSC) resolutions.
Back in mid-April the JAF having been emboldened by the preservation of Erdogan's Pocket launched an operation to capture the M5 Highway from the SAA. This runs to the south of Aleppo City linking it up with the rest of Syria. The JAF's operation failed and the SAA responded by launching a counter-offensive to liberate Castello Road cutting Aleppo City off from Erdogan's Pocket.
In response to the SAA's counter-offensive the JAF coalition - specifically the Syria Civil Defence (White Helmets) division - launched a propaganda offensive. This used their favourite tool - Atrocity Propaganda.
They claimed that the SAA had launched horrific barrel bomb attacks against a number of hospitals in the areas of Aleppo City occupied by by the JAF.
As I explained at the time the problem with this claim is that there aren't actually any hospitals in Aleppo City to be bombed. Under the Geneva convention laws of war a hospital must be used exclusively as a medical facility with no military purpose. It must also be clearly marked as a hospital and have a clearly marked boundary surrounding it. It must also obtain what is termed an Article 18 certificate which allows all forces to be informed by the ICRC of the hospital's location.
The JAF simply refuse to do this because the propaganda value of claiming a hospital is being bombed is considered so high. Therefore instead they hide their medical facilities in or close to military bases. Therefore whenever any of these military targets are destroyed the JAF can pretend that it was a hospital.
Also you need to be extremely suspicious of these claimed barrel bomb attacks. Often they are actually the work of a weapon known as a "Hell Cannon." This is homemade mortar that fires a cooking gas cylinder packed with explosives. The intention being that it drops vertically onto the roof of its target smashing through all the floors before exploding. It is intended to mimic an airstrike.
Therefore what the JAF frequently do is fire a Hell Cannon at a civilian building or a hospital in an area they occupy in order to create an atrocity which can then be blamed on the SAA or the Russians.
The JAF's claims in mid-late April though were backed by a carefully marshaled social media campaign under the hashtag #AleppoIsBurning. The conventional media's failure to ask basic questions about the JAF's claims obviously helped fuel this campaign.
Obviously there are members of the UNSC who don't need an excuse. However the #AleppoIsBurning campaign was so effective that it prompted a special UNSC meeting on May 3rd (3/5/16). This resulted in the passing of a resolution condemning attacks against medical facilities and calling on all parties to refrain from doing so in future.
This immense diplomatic pressure of course stopped the Russian backed SAA operation to liberate the northern Castello Road in its tracks keeping Erdogan's Pocket open for a little while longer.
It should come as no surprise to anyone then what happened when the SAA launched its latest operation to liberate the northern Castello Road in the last days on June.
On July 6th (6/7/16) - the day before the SAA secured what is termed "Fire Control" over the Castello Road - we had the shooting of Philando Castile in St Paul, Minnesota, US during a traffic stop.
Obviously this could have been a complete coincidence.
However it is well established that through groups like the Nation of Islam there is a clear overlap between the Black Lives Matter (BLM) movement and radical Islamist groups such as ISIL. Due to its relatively large Muslim population Minnesota is the state which has sent more recruits to ISIL than any other US state.
The way that Castile's girlfriend Diamond Reynolds caused his death by streaming it live of Facebook for propaganda purposes was extremely similar to the behaviour of ISIL terrorist Larossi Abballa who murdered two police officers in Magananville, France on June 13th (13/6/16).
Therefore it is entirely possible that the entire thing was orchestrated by the JAF's backers as a threat to the US. Simply put unless the US prevents Castello Road being liberated Black Lives Matter would be unleashed to mount attacks like the one seen in Dallas, Texas on July 7th (7/6/16).
Obviously the US Democrats were already using Black Lives Matter through the July 5th (5/7/16) Alton Sterling case to intimidate the US defence & legal establishment into not excluding Hillary Clinton from the Presidential race over the 110 offences of espionage against the US she was found to have committed on July 5th (5/7/16).
Then of course there was the now obligatory claim of an atrocity in Syria. What was interesting about this one though is that it focused not on Russian/Syrian airstrikes in Aleppo City but on CJTFOIR airstrikes close to Manbij.
It appears that on July 19th (19/7/16) ISIL detonated a remote controlled bomb on a road out of Manbij killing 56 civilians who were fleeing fighting in the city. This is a very common ISIL tactic that the used numerous times in the battles for Ramadi and Fallujah in Iraq. However on this occasion ISIL filmed the aftermath of the attack and released the footage on the Internet claiming that it was the result of a CJTFOIR airstrike.
Again this story was taken at face value by much of the conventional media fuelling a social media campaign under the hashtag "#PrayForSyria." This campaign was clearly focused on pressuring CJTFOIR to stop providing air-support to the QSD in an effort to leave ISIL in control of Manbij keeping Erdogan's Pocket open a little while longer.
Ironically this practice of a social media propaganda campaign to aid either JAF or ISIL has become such a matter of routine that there was a dedicated session on this type of "Terrorist Messaging" scheduled at the ISIL coalition meeting the following day - July 21st (21/7/16).
The other thing that has thrown the fight against ISIL and their associates into a degree of chaos was the failed Turkish Rising of July 15th (15/7/16).
As the name suggests Erdogan's Pocket was established and is being kept open by Turkish President/Prime Minister/Emperor Recep Tayyip Erdogan. The main way that he is doing this is by using it as the price CJTFOIR must pay for use of USAF base Incirilk in Turkey.
As I've said on numerous occasions Erdogan's ability to do this comes mainly from a complete failure of leadership by US President Obama.
After all simply invoking NATO's Article 5 would remove any choice Erdogan has over the use of Incirilk. Also between 2003 and 2011 the US had absolutely no problem flying combat missions from Iraq. If you look on Google Earth you can still see the US aircraft parked on taxiways on airbases in Iraq.
Although it was the US who crushed the rising by granting Erdogan airtime on CNN to address the nation Erdogan has responded to the rising by blaming it on the US is order to whip the Turkish population into an anti-American frenzy. This is being used to exert more pressure on the US over Incirilk.
For example immediately following the rising Erdogan sealed off Incirilk shutting down the airspace, blocking access and even cutting off the power supply effectively holding the 1,500 US troops and 50-90 US nuclear warheads stationed there. This continued until July 22nd (22/7/16).
This was followed up by a massive truck bombing in the Kurdish city of Qamishli on July 27th (27/7/16).
Qamishli is located right on the border with Turkey roughly 95km (55 miles) west of Syria's border with Iraq and roughly 265km (160 miles) east of the Euphrates. It's main attraction is that it has an international airport with a runway large enough to accommodate civilian passenger jets let alone small military jet such as the American A-10. Therefore if Erdogan were to deny the use of Incirilk it would be extremely easy for CJTFOIR to operate from Qamishli instead.
As such this bombing in a city hundreds of kilometres from the nearest frontline seemed intended to increase CJTFOIR's dependence of Incirilk by giving the impression it was to dangerous to operate from Qamishli. I am still trying to get to the bottom of how the truck bomb arrived in Qamishli but the city of Nusaybin directly across the border in Turkey would be my first line of enquiry.
With Erdogan seemingly reassured of the importance of Incirilk pressured resumed there with Islamist, anti-American protests on July 28th (28/7/16).
On August 1st (1/8/16) U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff General Joseph Dunford made the first official US visit to Turkey following the rising arriving at Incirilk. The night before Dunford's arrival Turkish security forces again sealed and raided Incirilk.
Officially this was for a "safety inspection." However it was intended to trigger rumours of another US-led rising stirring further anti-American feeling amongst the Turkish public. This then aids Erdogan to exert further pressure on the US.
Today it's been reported that Manbij has been fully liberated from ISIL while the JAF coalition have broken through SAA lines south of Aleppo City.
Still being in the process of catching up I'm yet to check those claims in detail.
21:55 on 6/8/16 (UK date).
This area stretches for roughly 100km (60 miles) between the town of Azaz in the west and the Euphrates River in the east. It extends around 55km (35 miles) south to Aleppo City. It functions as the main supply route for the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) and the associated Army of Conquest/Jaish al-Fatah (JAF) Islamist coalition. It can also serve as an escape route for these terror groups as they are finally driven from Iraq and Syria.
I also highlighted how Erdogan's Pocket has come under intense pressure recently. To the east the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF/QSD) coalition have been conducting an operation to liberate the town of Manbij which sits on the western bank of the Euphrates. To the south the Syrian Arab Army (SAA) have been moving the block Erdogan's pocket as it enters the north of Aleppo City via the Castello Road.
This of course is not the first time that Erdogan's Pocket has come under intense pressure. It's not even the first time this year.
Back in January the SAA backed by Russia airpower managed to liberate the village of Rabia from the Syrian Turkmen Brigades (STB) who are an irregular and therefore illegal division of the Turkish military currently operating within Syria as part of the JAF coalition . Rabia sits roughly 35km (20 miles) north-west of Latakia City and around 105km (60 miles) south-west of Aleppo City. The liberation of Rabia meant that the STB had been completely ousted from Latakia province.
Following that success Russia decided to support the Kurdish People's Protection Units (YPG) in the so-called "Afrin Canton" who operated outside of the QSD coalition. Their objective was capture first the town of Tall Rifat which sits around 15km (9 miles) south of Azaz which they achieved. From there they were expected to continue their western advance until the linked up with the QSD on the eastern bank of the Euphrates. Thus sealing Erdogan's Pocket.
It was at this point the supposedly independent and impartial international aid agencies such as the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) and the United Nations (UN) along with many western human rights bodies such as Human Rights Watch and much of the western media suddenly decided that there was a looming humanitarian catastrophe in the town of Madaya. This sits around 25km (14 miles) north-west of the Syrian capital Damascus.
As I explained at the time the humanitarian situation in towns like Madaya is being created entirely by the JAF forces. What they do is seize any food aid provided by groups such as the UN and the ICRC. Then rather like drug dealers they restrict the supply of that food to the civilians they are effectively holding hostage in order to drive up prices. It is through these artificially inflated prices that the JAF fund their violence in an extremely nasty form of taxation.
However the supposedly impartial aid groups such as the ICRC and the UN who are effectively funding JAF decided to blame the entire situation on the Syrian government and Russia. They used the faux outrage their misleading statements produced to put pressure on the Syrian government and Russia to agree to a number of 'humanitarian ceasefires.' Thus stopping the YPG's operation on Tall Rifat dead keeping Erdogan's Pocket open for a little while longer.
The YPG operation against Tall Rifat and then Azaz was also halted by the fact the Turkish military started shelling them intensely from the Turkish side of the border. For some reason neither the US-led coalition Combined Joint Task Force: Operation Inherent Resolve (CJTFOIR) nor the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) were unwilling or unable to stop their member Turkey taking wholly illegal military action in support of ISIL in defiance of several UN Security Council (UNSC) resolutions.
Back in mid-April the JAF having been emboldened by the preservation of Erdogan's Pocket launched an operation to capture the M5 Highway from the SAA. This runs to the south of Aleppo City linking it up with the rest of Syria. The JAF's operation failed and the SAA responded by launching a counter-offensive to liberate Castello Road cutting Aleppo City off from Erdogan's Pocket.
In response to the SAA's counter-offensive the JAF coalition - specifically the Syria Civil Defence (White Helmets) division - launched a propaganda offensive. This used their favourite tool - Atrocity Propaganda.
They claimed that the SAA had launched horrific barrel bomb attacks against a number of hospitals in the areas of Aleppo City occupied by by the JAF.
As I explained at the time the problem with this claim is that there aren't actually any hospitals in Aleppo City to be bombed. Under the Geneva convention laws of war a hospital must be used exclusively as a medical facility with no military purpose. It must also be clearly marked as a hospital and have a clearly marked boundary surrounding it. It must also obtain what is termed an Article 18 certificate which allows all forces to be informed by the ICRC of the hospital's location.
The JAF simply refuse to do this because the propaganda value of claiming a hospital is being bombed is considered so high. Therefore instead they hide their medical facilities in or close to military bases. Therefore whenever any of these military targets are destroyed the JAF can pretend that it was a hospital.
Also you need to be extremely suspicious of these claimed barrel bomb attacks. Often they are actually the work of a weapon known as a "Hell Cannon." This is homemade mortar that fires a cooking gas cylinder packed with explosives. The intention being that it drops vertically onto the roof of its target smashing through all the floors before exploding. It is intended to mimic an airstrike.
Therefore what the JAF frequently do is fire a Hell Cannon at a civilian building or a hospital in an area they occupy in order to create an atrocity which can then be blamed on the SAA or the Russians.
The JAF's claims in mid-late April though were backed by a carefully marshaled social media campaign under the hashtag #AleppoIsBurning. The conventional media's failure to ask basic questions about the JAF's claims obviously helped fuel this campaign.
Obviously there are members of the UNSC who don't need an excuse. However the #AleppoIsBurning campaign was so effective that it prompted a special UNSC meeting on May 3rd (3/5/16). This resulted in the passing of a resolution condemning attacks against medical facilities and calling on all parties to refrain from doing so in future.
This immense diplomatic pressure of course stopped the Russian backed SAA operation to liberate the northern Castello Road in its tracks keeping Erdogan's Pocket open for a little while longer.
It should come as no surprise to anyone then what happened when the SAA launched its latest operation to liberate the northern Castello Road in the last days on June.
On July 6th (6/7/16) - the day before the SAA secured what is termed "Fire Control" over the Castello Road - we had the shooting of Philando Castile in St Paul, Minnesota, US during a traffic stop.
Obviously this could have been a complete coincidence.
However it is well established that through groups like the Nation of Islam there is a clear overlap between the Black Lives Matter (BLM) movement and radical Islamist groups such as ISIL. Due to its relatively large Muslim population Minnesota is the state which has sent more recruits to ISIL than any other US state.
The way that Castile's girlfriend Diamond Reynolds caused his death by streaming it live of Facebook for propaganda purposes was extremely similar to the behaviour of ISIL terrorist Larossi Abballa who murdered two police officers in Magananville, France on June 13th (13/6/16).
Therefore it is entirely possible that the entire thing was orchestrated by the JAF's backers as a threat to the US. Simply put unless the US prevents Castello Road being liberated Black Lives Matter would be unleashed to mount attacks like the one seen in Dallas, Texas on July 7th (7/6/16).
Obviously the US Democrats were already using Black Lives Matter through the July 5th (5/7/16) Alton Sterling case to intimidate the US defence & legal establishment into not excluding Hillary Clinton from the Presidential race over the 110 offences of espionage against the US she was found to have committed on July 5th (5/7/16).
Then of course there was the now obligatory claim of an atrocity in Syria. What was interesting about this one though is that it focused not on Russian/Syrian airstrikes in Aleppo City but on CJTFOIR airstrikes close to Manbij.
It appears that on July 19th (19/7/16) ISIL detonated a remote controlled bomb on a road out of Manbij killing 56 civilians who were fleeing fighting in the city. This is a very common ISIL tactic that the used numerous times in the battles for Ramadi and Fallujah in Iraq. However on this occasion ISIL filmed the aftermath of the attack and released the footage on the Internet claiming that it was the result of a CJTFOIR airstrike.
Again this story was taken at face value by much of the conventional media fuelling a social media campaign under the hashtag "#PrayForSyria." This campaign was clearly focused on pressuring CJTFOIR to stop providing air-support to the QSD in an effort to leave ISIL in control of Manbij keeping Erdogan's Pocket open a little while longer.
Ironically this practice of a social media propaganda campaign to aid either JAF or ISIL has become such a matter of routine that there was a dedicated session on this type of "Terrorist Messaging" scheduled at the ISIL coalition meeting the following day - July 21st (21/7/16).
The other thing that has thrown the fight against ISIL and their associates into a degree of chaos was the failed Turkish Rising of July 15th (15/7/16).
As the name suggests Erdogan's Pocket was established and is being kept open by Turkish President/Prime Minister/Emperor Recep Tayyip Erdogan. The main way that he is doing this is by using it as the price CJTFOIR must pay for use of USAF base Incirilk in Turkey.
As I've said on numerous occasions Erdogan's ability to do this comes mainly from a complete failure of leadership by US President Obama.
After all simply invoking NATO's Article 5 would remove any choice Erdogan has over the use of Incirilk. Also between 2003 and 2011 the US had absolutely no problem flying combat missions from Iraq. If you look on Google Earth you can still see the US aircraft parked on taxiways on airbases in Iraq.
Although it was the US who crushed the rising by granting Erdogan airtime on CNN to address the nation Erdogan has responded to the rising by blaming it on the US is order to whip the Turkish population into an anti-American frenzy. This is being used to exert more pressure on the US over Incirilk.
For example immediately following the rising Erdogan sealed off Incirilk shutting down the airspace, blocking access and even cutting off the power supply effectively holding the 1,500 US troops and 50-90 US nuclear warheads stationed there. This continued until July 22nd (22/7/16).
This was followed up by a massive truck bombing in the Kurdish city of Qamishli on July 27th (27/7/16).
Qamishli is located right on the border with Turkey roughly 95km (55 miles) west of Syria's border with Iraq and roughly 265km (160 miles) east of the Euphrates. It's main attraction is that it has an international airport with a runway large enough to accommodate civilian passenger jets let alone small military jet such as the American A-10. Therefore if Erdogan were to deny the use of Incirilk it would be extremely easy for CJTFOIR to operate from Qamishli instead.
As such this bombing in a city hundreds of kilometres from the nearest frontline seemed intended to increase CJTFOIR's dependence of Incirilk by giving the impression it was to dangerous to operate from Qamishli. I am still trying to get to the bottom of how the truck bomb arrived in Qamishli but the city of Nusaybin directly across the border in Turkey would be my first line of enquiry.
With Erdogan seemingly reassured of the importance of Incirilk pressured resumed there with Islamist, anti-American protests on July 28th (28/7/16).
On August 1st (1/8/16) U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff General Joseph Dunford made the first official US visit to Turkey following the rising arriving at Incirilk. The night before Dunford's arrival Turkish security forces again sealed and raided Incirilk.
Officially this was for a "safety inspection." However it was intended to trigger rumours of another US-led rising stirring further anti-American feeling amongst the Turkish public. This then aids Erdogan to exert further pressure on the US.
Today it's been reported that Manbij has been fully liberated from ISIL while the JAF coalition have broken through SAA lines south of Aleppo City.
Still being in the process of catching up I'm yet to check those claims in detail.
21:55 on 6/8/16 (UK date).
Friday, 5 August 2016
Black Lives Matter Protest
Against themselves mainly.
It seems that the American disease of Black Lives Matter is continuing to infect the UK.
Today a number of protesters have targeted transport links in a number of British cities. Most notably tram/trolley car routes in Nottingham and roads into Britain's main Heathrow International Airport on the outskirts of the capital London.
Unlike in the US police in the UK are routinely unarmed. Last year the small proportion who are armed fired just 7 bullets. That doesn't mean that seven people were killed or even that seven people were shot. It means that just 7 bullets were fired. In a country of around 65 million people.
As such these Black Lives Matter protests in the UK seem intentionally ridiculous.
The spectacle seems to have been constructed to coincide with tonight's spectacle of the 2016 Summer Olympics Opening Ceremony which is to be held in Brazil.
The histories of Brazil and the United States are closely intertwined. Particularly on the issue of slavery.
During the 1860's the US fought a civil war between the pro-Slavery Democrats of Jefferson Davis and the abolitionist Republicans of Abraham Lincoln.
Following their defeat the Democrats did not give up on slavery. Instead many of them simply moved their plantations and slaves to South American nations. Brazil being the last nation in the Americas to outlaw slavery in 1888.
Due to this shared history both Brazil and Democrat run cities and states in the US continue to share the problem of extremely violent, drug-ridden ghettos.
Through Black Lives Matter and its relentless war against the very concept of law and justice the US Democrats particularly under current President Barack Obama seem intent on turning the entire US in to one big extremely violent, drug-ridden ghetto.
Conversely as part of their efforts to move from an economically developing to a first world developed nation the Brazilians have been working very hard to eradicate their ghettos which are known locally as "Favelas."
Britain will assure you that a key event in Brazil's development was the shooting of Brazilian national Jean Charles de Menezes on July 22nd 2005 (22/7/05) in London, UK. Coming the day after the failed July 21st (21/7/16) terror attacks on London de Menezes was mistaken for a suicide bomber and shot and killed by the police.
Following de Menezes' death the Brazilian government protested the killing of one of its citizens extremely loudly to the British government over a number of years. The British government simply pointed out that at the time Brazilian police were actually being paid a bonus for every suspect they killed rather than arresting. It all got a bit bad tempered.
As I'm sure Britain will tell you it was their protests and their protests alone that forced the Brazilian government to change this policy of extra-judicial killing. This change in policy has been central in Brazil's attempts to eradicate their ghettos by what is known as; "Neighbourhood Pacification."
Rather than being an established doctrine Neighbourhood Pacification is really a new idea that the Brazilians are still trying to perfect.
Basically though it involves aggressively policing ghettos to expel the drugs gangs that occupy them. This almost combat phase is supposed to be followed up by social spending on things like neighbourhood police stations, hospitals, schools and utilities (electricity, sewers, etc) in order to reconnect the ghetto residents with mainstream society.
The success or failure of Neighbourhood Pacification is likely to be a big talking point at the Olympics. Unfortunately a lot of people are starting to think that it is starting to look more like a failure than a success.
The reason for this is simply the Olympics.
In order to get Rio de Janerio ready for the 2016 games Brazilian authorities have been forced to attempt to pacify more neighbourhoods than they've got the resources to deal with.
Due to the cost of the staging the Olympics those resources have reduced meaning that they often can't afford the social spending phase that needs to follow the combat phase.
Again I think I'll be boycotting these Olympics.
14:15 on 5/8/16 (UK date).
It seems that the American disease of Black Lives Matter is continuing to infect the UK.
Today a number of protesters have targeted transport links in a number of British cities. Most notably tram/trolley car routes in Nottingham and roads into Britain's main Heathrow International Airport on the outskirts of the capital London.
Unlike in the US police in the UK are routinely unarmed. Last year the small proportion who are armed fired just 7 bullets. That doesn't mean that seven people were killed or even that seven people were shot. It means that just 7 bullets were fired. In a country of around 65 million people.
As such these Black Lives Matter protests in the UK seem intentionally ridiculous.
The spectacle seems to have been constructed to coincide with tonight's spectacle of the 2016 Summer Olympics Opening Ceremony which is to be held in Brazil.
The histories of Brazil and the United States are closely intertwined. Particularly on the issue of slavery.
During the 1860's the US fought a civil war between the pro-Slavery Democrats of Jefferson Davis and the abolitionist Republicans of Abraham Lincoln.
Following their defeat the Democrats did not give up on slavery. Instead many of them simply moved their plantations and slaves to South American nations. Brazil being the last nation in the Americas to outlaw slavery in 1888.
Due to this shared history both Brazil and Democrat run cities and states in the US continue to share the problem of extremely violent, drug-ridden ghettos.
Through Black Lives Matter and its relentless war against the very concept of law and justice the US Democrats particularly under current President Barack Obama seem intent on turning the entire US in to one big extremely violent, drug-ridden ghetto.
Conversely as part of their efforts to move from an economically developing to a first world developed nation the Brazilians have been working very hard to eradicate their ghettos which are known locally as "Favelas."
Britain will assure you that a key event in Brazil's development was the shooting of Brazilian national Jean Charles de Menezes on July 22nd 2005 (22/7/05) in London, UK. Coming the day after the failed July 21st (21/7/16) terror attacks on London de Menezes was mistaken for a suicide bomber and shot and killed by the police.
Following de Menezes' death the Brazilian government protested the killing of one of its citizens extremely loudly to the British government over a number of years. The British government simply pointed out that at the time Brazilian police were actually being paid a bonus for every suspect they killed rather than arresting. It all got a bit bad tempered.
As I'm sure Britain will tell you it was their protests and their protests alone that forced the Brazilian government to change this policy of extra-judicial killing. This change in policy has been central in Brazil's attempts to eradicate their ghettos by what is known as; "Neighbourhood Pacification."
Rather than being an established doctrine Neighbourhood Pacification is really a new idea that the Brazilians are still trying to perfect.
Basically though it involves aggressively policing ghettos to expel the drugs gangs that occupy them. This almost combat phase is supposed to be followed up by social spending on things like neighbourhood police stations, hospitals, schools and utilities (electricity, sewers, etc) in order to reconnect the ghetto residents with mainstream society.
The success or failure of Neighbourhood Pacification is likely to be a big talking point at the Olympics. Unfortunately a lot of people are starting to think that it is starting to look more like a failure than a success.
The reason for this is simply the Olympics.
In order to get Rio de Janerio ready for the 2016 games Brazilian authorities have been forced to attempt to pacify more neighbourhoods than they've got the resources to deal with.
Due to the cost of the staging the Olympics those resources have reduced meaning that they often can't afford the social spending phase that needs to follow the combat phase.
Again I think I'll be boycotting these Olympics.
14:15 on 5/8/16 (UK date).
Thursday, 4 August 2016
The Latest Russell Square Terror Attack.
At around 21:30 (GMT) last night a man randomly attacked people with a knife/bladed article in Russell Square in London, UK.
This of course is the site where Hasib Hussein detonated his bomb aboard a bus killing 26 during the Al Qaeda terror attacks in London on July 7th 2005 (7/7/05).
Prior to being overpowered by the police last night's attacker succeeded in killing a 60 year old American woman and wounding five others. These included another American, an Israeli and two Australians.
The attack has since been identified as Zakaria Bulhan - a 19 year old Norwegian of Somali origin. It seems that at the time of his arrest Bulhan was displaying clear signs of a serious psychiatric disorder.
This latest attack seems to be in a similar mould as the December 5th 2015 (5/12/15) terror attack at Leytonstone Underground Rail (Metro) station also in London, UK. Here Muhaydin Mire - a Muslim of Somali origin who suffers from Paranoid Schizophrenia randomly started attacking passers-by wounding three. Despite Mire attempting to behead one of his victims nobody was killed in the attack.
The Leytonstone attack occurred against the backdrop of the December 2nd 2015 (2/12/15) vote in the UK Parliament on whether to authorise military force against Islamist terror groups in Syria as well as Iraq. This debate was obviously covered extensively in the British media and atmosphere around the discussion was extremely poisonous. For example a number of Members of Parliament (MP's) who supported military action reported receiving death threats.
Therefore it seems that the public debate over the Parliamentary vote combined with Mire's mental illness to inspire or radicalise him into launching his attack.
Having been convicted on June 8th 2016 (8/6/16) of attempted murder Mire was sentenced on Monday (1/8/16). This was obviously widely covered in the British media including soft-interviews with his victims on the breakfast shows.
London's Metropolitan Police seemed to capitalise on Mire's sentencing to publicly unveil its newly formed, highly militarised counter-terrorism specialist firearms unit yesterday (3/8/16). Both in referring to Mire's sentencing and yesterday's unveiling the Metropolitan Police Commissioner repeatedly warned the public and any near-by TV camera that the threat of the next terror attack against the UK was not a question of if but when.
Therefore it again seems as though the public debate over Mire's sentencing and the nation's counter-terrorism preparations combined with Bulhan's mental illness to inspire or radicalise him into launching his attack.
As I discussed extensively in relation to the recent terror attacks in Munich, Reutlingen and Ansbach in Germany some type of mental illness is such a common element of the profile of an Islamist terrorist you could almost say that it is a pre-requisite.
Although he was found to be sane as per the M'Naughten rules of criminal responsibility a large part of the discussion during Mire's sentencing was his Schizophrenia. The argument was over whether he should be sent to prison for a fixed term or committed to a psychiatric hospital for a non-fixed term. In the end the Judge compromised by sentencing him to a lenient 8.5 year prison term. The first part of which was to be served in a psychiatric hospital.
This discussion really had its roots in the May 22nd 2013 (22/5/13) murder of Lee Rigby in the Woolwich area of London. This was committed by two men - Michael Adebolajo and Michael Adebowale.
Adebolajo is simply unpleasant however Adebowale who acted more as a sidekick rather than a full conspirator also suffered from a severe form of Schizophrenia.
As a result during sentencing a lot of people with experience of mental health issues felt that Adebowale should have been committed to a psychiatric hospital. However under political and public pressure he was instead sent to prison. After about two weeks in prison Adebowale became so ill had to be transferred to a psychiatric hospital anyway.
Quite apart from avoiding a repeat of that apparent miscarriage of justice there also seemed to be quite a desire for Mire to be sent to a hospital rather than prison. After all there is a certain propaganda value to someone who stands up in Court claiming to be a brave soldier of Islam protecting innocent Syrians having it pointed out to them by a Judge that they are in fact delusional.
Today the police have come out and announced that they're found no evidence linking Bulhan to any known terrorist group and therefore are considering his mental illness the main motivator behind the attack.
This has somehow been translated by the media as; "Not a Terrorist Attack" prompting quite a backlash on social media.
This is an issue that has long irritated my sense of pedantry.
Under British law Terrorism is defined by the Counter-Terrorism Act 2008 which encompasses a number of previous acts. This creates a number of specific offences such as being a member of a banned or proscribed terrorist group or fundraising for such a group.
However there is no offence of "Terrorist Murder." There is simply the common law offence of "Murder." Even the making and setting off of bombs is covered by the Explosive Substances Act of 1883.
Therefore in a cases such as this whether or not it is classed as terrorism relates only to the investigation. Not any prosecutions that investigation may lead to.
The first thing the police did in investigating last night's attack was to place an embargo on it being reported.
Unlike a ban this is strictly voluntary rather than legally enforceable although journalists who want to maintain a good relationship with the police would be wary of violating the embargo. It was around this time that I noticed the "Moments" and "Trends" function on my Twitter account suddenly stopped working.
Before the embargo was lifted some five hours later the police had interviewed Bulhan, searched his home and electronic devices and interviewed his known associates like his family. As such the attack was most definitely investigated as an act of terrorism.
That terrorism investigation revealed that there was no indication that Bulhan had acted as part of wider network that posed an ongoing threat to the public. That investigation is still ongoing even if the police now consider mental illness to be the main motive.
There is of course also a significant political reason to downplay the fact that the UK has once again come under Islamist terror attack - albeit a small and isolated one.
Tomorrow (5/8/16) the Summer Olympics open in Brazil.
This has already been marred by attempts to have Russia banned as punishment for its longstanding opposition to Islamist terrorism. That effort has been led by British Parliamentarian Sebastian Lord Coe who has joined the British Olympic team for their preparations.
Admitting that the UK had suffered another Islamist terror attack just days before the start of the Olympics would really serve to underline just what a nasty piece of work Lord Coe is.
20:00 on 4/8/16 (UK date).
This of course is the site where Hasib Hussein detonated his bomb aboard a bus killing 26 during the Al Qaeda terror attacks in London on July 7th 2005 (7/7/05).
Prior to being overpowered by the police last night's attacker succeeded in killing a 60 year old American woman and wounding five others. These included another American, an Israeli and two Australians.
The attack has since been identified as Zakaria Bulhan - a 19 year old Norwegian of Somali origin. It seems that at the time of his arrest Bulhan was displaying clear signs of a serious psychiatric disorder.
This latest attack seems to be in a similar mould as the December 5th 2015 (5/12/15) terror attack at Leytonstone Underground Rail (Metro) station also in London, UK. Here Muhaydin Mire - a Muslim of Somali origin who suffers from Paranoid Schizophrenia randomly started attacking passers-by wounding three. Despite Mire attempting to behead one of his victims nobody was killed in the attack.
The Leytonstone attack occurred against the backdrop of the December 2nd 2015 (2/12/15) vote in the UK Parliament on whether to authorise military force against Islamist terror groups in Syria as well as Iraq. This debate was obviously covered extensively in the British media and atmosphere around the discussion was extremely poisonous. For example a number of Members of Parliament (MP's) who supported military action reported receiving death threats.
Therefore it seems that the public debate over the Parliamentary vote combined with Mire's mental illness to inspire or radicalise him into launching his attack.
Having been convicted on June 8th 2016 (8/6/16) of attempted murder Mire was sentenced on Monday (1/8/16). This was obviously widely covered in the British media including soft-interviews with his victims on the breakfast shows.
London's Metropolitan Police seemed to capitalise on Mire's sentencing to publicly unveil its newly formed, highly militarised counter-terrorism specialist firearms unit yesterday (3/8/16). Both in referring to Mire's sentencing and yesterday's unveiling the Metropolitan Police Commissioner repeatedly warned the public and any near-by TV camera that the threat of the next terror attack against the UK was not a question of if but when.
Therefore it again seems as though the public debate over Mire's sentencing and the nation's counter-terrorism preparations combined with Bulhan's mental illness to inspire or radicalise him into launching his attack.
As I discussed extensively in relation to the recent terror attacks in Munich, Reutlingen and Ansbach in Germany some type of mental illness is such a common element of the profile of an Islamist terrorist you could almost say that it is a pre-requisite.
Although he was found to be sane as per the M'Naughten rules of criminal responsibility a large part of the discussion during Mire's sentencing was his Schizophrenia. The argument was over whether he should be sent to prison for a fixed term or committed to a psychiatric hospital for a non-fixed term. In the end the Judge compromised by sentencing him to a lenient 8.5 year prison term. The first part of which was to be served in a psychiatric hospital.
This discussion really had its roots in the May 22nd 2013 (22/5/13) murder of Lee Rigby in the Woolwich area of London. This was committed by two men - Michael Adebolajo and Michael Adebowale.
Adebolajo is simply unpleasant however Adebowale who acted more as a sidekick rather than a full conspirator also suffered from a severe form of Schizophrenia.
As a result during sentencing a lot of people with experience of mental health issues felt that Adebowale should have been committed to a psychiatric hospital. However under political and public pressure he was instead sent to prison. After about two weeks in prison Adebowale became so ill had to be transferred to a psychiatric hospital anyway.
Quite apart from avoiding a repeat of that apparent miscarriage of justice there also seemed to be quite a desire for Mire to be sent to a hospital rather than prison. After all there is a certain propaganda value to someone who stands up in Court claiming to be a brave soldier of Islam protecting innocent Syrians having it pointed out to them by a Judge that they are in fact delusional.
Today the police have come out and announced that they're found no evidence linking Bulhan to any known terrorist group and therefore are considering his mental illness the main motivator behind the attack.
This has somehow been translated by the media as; "Not a Terrorist Attack" prompting quite a backlash on social media.
This is an issue that has long irritated my sense of pedantry.
Under British law Terrorism is defined by the Counter-Terrorism Act 2008 which encompasses a number of previous acts. This creates a number of specific offences such as being a member of a banned or proscribed terrorist group or fundraising for such a group.
However there is no offence of "Terrorist Murder." There is simply the common law offence of "Murder." Even the making and setting off of bombs is covered by the Explosive Substances Act of 1883.
Therefore in a cases such as this whether or not it is classed as terrorism relates only to the investigation. Not any prosecutions that investigation may lead to.
The first thing the police did in investigating last night's attack was to place an embargo on it being reported.
Unlike a ban this is strictly voluntary rather than legally enforceable although journalists who want to maintain a good relationship with the police would be wary of violating the embargo. It was around this time that I noticed the "Moments" and "Trends" function on my Twitter account suddenly stopped working.
Before the embargo was lifted some five hours later the police had interviewed Bulhan, searched his home and electronic devices and interviewed his known associates like his family. As such the attack was most definitely investigated as an act of terrorism.
That terrorism investigation revealed that there was no indication that Bulhan had acted as part of wider network that posed an ongoing threat to the public. That investigation is still ongoing even if the police now consider mental illness to be the main motive.
There is of course also a significant political reason to downplay the fact that the UK has once again come under Islamist terror attack - albeit a small and isolated one.
Tomorrow (5/8/16) the Summer Olympics open in Brazil.
This has already been marred by attempts to have Russia banned as punishment for its longstanding opposition to Islamist terrorism. That effort has been led by British Parliamentarian Sebastian Lord Coe who has joined the British Olympic team for their preparations.
Admitting that the UK had suffered another Islamist terror attack just days before the start of the Olympics would really serve to underline just what a nasty piece of work Lord Coe is.
20:00 on 4/8/16 (UK date).
Wednesday, 3 August 2016
Operation Featherweight: Month 25, Week 2, Day 4.
In my post yesterday I covered the liberation of the Iraqi city of Fallujah by the Iraqi Security Forces (ISF) from the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL).
I commented on how this marks the beginning of the end for ISIL in Iraq and how their senior leaders seem to have accepted this. They are now rumoured to be preparing to flee not only Iraq but also Syria for Libya and beyond.
ISIL's main escape route is likely to be a roughly 100km (60 mile) area of Syria's border with Turkey which has become dubbed either "Erdogan's Pocket" or "Garvaghy Road." This really stretches from the town of Azaz to the west to the Euphrates River in the east and Aleppo City to the south. This has long functioned as ISIL's main supply route between Turkey and ISIL's de facto capital in Syria - Raqqa.
As such sealing this area should always have been a high priority for the US-led anti-ISIL coalition - Combined Joint Task Force: Operation Inherent Resolve (CJTFOIR). However now that it is likely to become an escape route for ISIL sealing it should be the number one priority for anti-ISIL forces.
Fortunately in recent months Erdogan's Pocket has been coming under growing pressure from two different groups of forces. Both to south and to the east.
From the east Erdogan's Pocket has come under pressure from an operation to liberate the city of Manbij. This sits almost directly on the western bank on the Euphrates River around 25km (16miles) north-west of Tishrin Dam and 35km (22 miles) south of the border town of Jarabulus.
The operation to liberate Manbij is being conducted by the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF/QSD). Formed in October 2015 this is a coalition of the Kurdish People' Protection Units (YPG) along with local Arab tribal forces and Arab and Assyrian militias.
The operation to liberate Manbij has been painfully slow. It was launched on May 31st (31/5/16) in two directions from Tishrin which was liberated by the QSD in December 2015 and from Sarrin which sits on the eastern bank of the Euphrates almost directly opposite Manbij.
The first objective was to lay siege to Manbij by cutting the main roads north to Jarabulus, west to Aleppo City and south to Raqqa liberating the surrounding villages and countryside in the process. It was only on June 21st (21/6/16) that the QSD were able to enter Manbij itself.
During that time ISIL forces inside of Manbij have been repeatedly able to break the siege of. Most notably on June 13th (13/6/16) and June 15th (15/6/16). ISIL have also been able to launch attacks from Jarabulus in an effort to break the siege. Particularly on June 28th (28/6/16) and July 1st (1/7/16).
Some nine weeks into the operation the QSD have so far only succeeded in liberating around 70% of a city which is only home to around 100,000 and only roughly 8km^2 (5miles^2) in size.
At this rate it will be around February 2019 before Erdogan's Pocket is sealed and ISIL are denied their supply/escape route.
The sole reason for this agonising lack of progress is simply the US' refusal to commit itself to the objective of shutting down Erdogan's Pocket.
In warfare what you aim to do is to deploy the largest force you can muster to quickly and completely overwhelm your opponent. Ideally what you want to do is intimidate them to the extent that they simply surrender before you even have to fire a shot.
In the Manbij operation the US is flatly refusing to allow the QSD to do this. Instead it is imposing ridiculous conditions on the operation seemingly in order to drag it out for as long as possible if not cause it to fail completely.
For example at the demand of Turkey the US is refusing to allow the YPG part of the QSD coalition to play a leading role in the operation. The problem with this is that the YPG make up around 85% of the QSD strength of around 70,000. They are also the most longstanding, best trained and most experienced force within the QSD.
Turkey has also demanded that a Turkmen Brigade are assigned to the operation. Meanwhile in Aleppo City other Turkmen Brigades are actively trying to wipe out the YPG.
Likewise the US appear to be strictly rationing the ammunition being supplied to the QSD. The rumour has it that the US is only supplying the QSD with ammunition on an operation-by-operation, day-to-day basis.
That means that if the QSD liberate a village from ISIL as they did Ezam on June 6th (6/6/16) they then need to stop, carefully calculate what their next objective will be, request the ammunition and wait for US approval.
This obviously completely destroys the momentum of the operation and leaves the QSD extremely vulnerable to ISIL counter-attack.
The US' refusal to give the QSD the tools needed to do the job seem to stem from US President Barack Obama's apparent deep love affair with longterm ISIL collaborator Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.
Rather than simply telling Erdogan that his pocket is to be sealed and his support for ISIL is going to end the US seem to be trying to slow the Manbij operation down into a series of creeps and peeps. Simply the QSD are allowed to creep forward a few kilometres before the US forces them to wait to see if Erdogan is going to raise any objections.
Obama's cowardice in the Manbij operation is costing people their lives unnecessarily. Include European and American citizens who have gone to fight alongside the QSD.
In June Portuguese fighter Mario Nunes was killed in battle. On July 14th (14/6/16) the American Levi Shirley gave his life to defeat ISIL. On July 21st (21/7/16) Dean Evans from the UK was killed while on July 27th (27/7/16) Slovenian Martin Gruden made the ultimate sacrifice. These are just some of the 214 QSD fighters killed in the agonisingly slow operation.
To the south Erdogan's Pocket has come under pressure from the Syrian Arab Army (SAA) to the north of Aleppo City.
It is something of a misnomer that Aleppo City was ever fully captured from the Syrian government.
In 2012 a number of Islamist terror groups including Al Qaeda's affiliate the Al Nusra Front (ANF), the Islamic Movement of the Freemen of the Levant/Harakat Ahrar ash-Sham Islamiyya (Ahrar al-Sham) and the Army of Islam/Jaish al-Islam (JAI) invaded the city. They went on to form the Army of Conquest/Jaish al-Fatah (JAF) coalition.
At most the JAF have only ever been able to control around 50% of Aleppo City. However they have largely been confined to 20-30% of the north-east of the city with the SAA controlling around 50% and the YPG in control of the remaining 20%.
In order to sustain their occupation of Aleppo City the Army of Conquest coalition have relied on the "Erdogan's Pocket" supply line. Erdogan's Pocket runs south along two main roads from Azaz including the Highway 214. These roads enter Aleppo City via a ring-road called "Castello Road."
On June 25th (25/6/16) the SAA launched a long expected operation to liberate the northern portion of the Castello Road and the surrounding area.
By July 7th (7/7/16) the SAA had secured what is termed "fire control" over the Castello Road. Essentially this meant they could block all traffic on the road by firing on it. On July 17th (17/7/16) the SAA had taken physical control of Castello Road.
By July 27th (27/7/16) declared that they were in full control of the both the road and the surrounding area meaning that Aleppo City had been completely sealed off from Erdogan's Pocket.
At around 16:50 on 3/8/16 (UK date) I am still not quite 100%. I will try and pick this up after dinner my most likely in a seperate post tomorrow.
I commented on how this marks the beginning of the end for ISIL in Iraq and how their senior leaders seem to have accepted this. They are now rumoured to be preparing to flee not only Iraq but also Syria for Libya and beyond.
ISIL's main escape route is likely to be a roughly 100km (60 mile) area of Syria's border with Turkey which has become dubbed either "Erdogan's Pocket" or "Garvaghy Road." This really stretches from the town of Azaz to the west to the Euphrates River in the east and Aleppo City to the south. This has long functioned as ISIL's main supply route between Turkey and ISIL's de facto capital in Syria - Raqqa.
As such sealing this area should always have been a high priority for the US-led anti-ISIL coalition - Combined Joint Task Force: Operation Inherent Resolve (CJTFOIR). However now that it is likely to become an escape route for ISIL sealing it should be the number one priority for anti-ISIL forces.
Fortunately in recent months Erdogan's Pocket has been coming under growing pressure from two different groups of forces. Both to south and to the east.
From the east Erdogan's Pocket has come under pressure from an operation to liberate the city of Manbij. This sits almost directly on the western bank on the Euphrates River around 25km (16miles) north-west of Tishrin Dam and 35km (22 miles) south of the border town of Jarabulus.
The operation to liberate Manbij is being conducted by the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF/QSD). Formed in October 2015 this is a coalition of the Kurdish People' Protection Units (YPG) along with local Arab tribal forces and Arab and Assyrian militias.
The operation to liberate Manbij has been painfully slow. It was launched on May 31st (31/5/16) in two directions from Tishrin which was liberated by the QSD in December 2015 and from Sarrin which sits on the eastern bank of the Euphrates almost directly opposite Manbij.
The first objective was to lay siege to Manbij by cutting the main roads north to Jarabulus, west to Aleppo City and south to Raqqa liberating the surrounding villages and countryside in the process. It was only on June 21st (21/6/16) that the QSD were able to enter Manbij itself.
During that time ISIL forces inside of Manbij have been repeatedly able to break the siege of. Most notably on June 13th (13/6/16) and June 15th (15/6/16). ISIL have also been able to launch attacks from Jarabulus in an effort to break the siege. Particularly on June 28th (28/6/16) and July 1st (1/7/16).
Some nine weeks into the operation the QSD have so far only succeeded in liberating around 70% of a city which is only home to around 100,000 and only roughly 8km^2 (5miles^2) in size.
At this rate it will be around February 2019 before Erdogan's Pocket is sealed and ISIL are denied their supply/escape route.
The sole reason for this agonising lack of progress is simply the US' refusal to commit itself to the objective of shutting down Erdogan's Pocket.
In warfare what you aim to do is to deploy the largest force you can muster to quickly and completely overwhelm your opponent. Ideally what you want to do is intimidate them to the extent that they simply surrender before you even have to fire a shot.
In the Manbij operation the US is flatly refusing to allow the QSD to do this. Instead it is imposing ridiculous conditions on the operation seemingly in order to drag it out for as long as possible if not cause it to fail completely.
For example at the demand of Turkey the US is refusing to allow the YPG part of the QSD coalition to play a leading role in the operation. The problem with this is that the YPG make up around 85% of the QSD strength of around 70,000. They are also the most longstanding, best trained and most experienced force within the QSD.
Turkey has also demanded that a Turkmen Brigade are assigned to the operation. Meanwhile in Aleppo City other Turkmen Brigades are actively trying to wipe out the YPG.
Likewise the US appear to be strictly rationing the ammunition being supplied to the QSD. The rumour has it that the US is only supplying the QSD with ammunition on an operation-by-operation, day-to-day basis.
That means that if the QSD liberate a village from ISIL as they did Ezam on June 6th (6/6/16) they then need to stop, carefully calculate what their next objective will be, request the ammunition and wait for US approval.
This obviously completely destroys the momentum of the operation and leaves the QSD extremely vulnerable to ISIL counter-attack.
The US' refusal to give the QSD the tools needed to do the job seem to stem from US President Barack Obama's apparent deep love affair with longterm ISIL collaborator Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.
Rather than simply telling Erdogan that his pocket is to be sealed and his support for ISIL is going to end the US seem to be trying to slow the Manbij operation down into a series of creeps and peeps. Simply the QSD are allowed to creep forward a few kilometres before the US forces them to wait to see if Erdogan is going to raise any objections.
Obama's cowardice in the Manbij operation is costing people their lives unnecessarily. Include European and American citizens who have gone to fight alongside the QSD.
In June Portuguese fighter Mario Nunes was killed in battle. On July 14th (14/6/16) the American Levi Shirley gave his life to defeat ISIL. On July 21st (21/7/16) Dean Evans from the UK was killed while on July 27th (27/7/16) Slovenian Martin Gruden made the ultimate sacrifice. These are just some of the 214 QSD fighters killed in the agonisingly slow operation.
To the south Erdogan's Pocket has come under pressure from the Syrian Arab Army (SAA) to the north of Aleppo City.
It is something of a misnomer that Aleppo City was ever fully captured from the Syrian government.
In 2012 a number of Islamist terror groups including Al Qaeda's affiliate the Al Nusra Front (ANF), the Islamic Movement of the Freemen of the Levant/Harakat Ahrar ash-Sham Islamiyya (Ahrar al-Sham) and the Army of Islam/Jaish al-Islam (JAI) invaded the city. They went on to form the Army of Conquest/Jaish al-Fatah (JAF) coalition.
At most the JAF have only ever been able to control around 50% of Aleppo City. However they have largely been confined to 20-30% of the north-east of the city with the SAA controlling around 50% and the YPG in control of the remaining 20%.
In order to sustain their occupation of Aleppo City the Army of Conquest coalition have relied on the "Erdogan's Pocket" supply line. Erdogan's Pocket runs south along two main roads from Azaz including the Highway 214. These roads enter Aleppo City via a ring-road called "Castello Road."
On June 25th (25/6/16) the SAA launched a long expected operation to liberate the northern portion of the Castello Road and the surrounding area.
By July 7th (7/7/16) the SAA had secured what is termed "fire control" over the Castello Road. Essentially this meant they could block all traffic on the road by firing on it. On July 17th (17/7/16) the SAA had taken physical control of Castello Road.
By July 27th (27/7/16) declared that they were in full control of the both the road and the surrounding area meaning that Aleppo City had been completely sealed off from Erdogan's Pocket.
At around 16:50 on 3/8/16 (UK date) I am still not quite 100%. I will try and pick this up after dinner my most likely in a seperate post tomorrow.
Tuesday, 2 August 2016
Operation Featherweight: Month 25, Week 2, Day 3.
On June 26th (26/6/16) the city of Fallujah was liberated from the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) by the Iraqi Security Forces (ISF).
A city of around 275,000 people Fallujah represented the last major population centre occupied in Iraq's vast south-western Anbar province. It sits around 45km (25 miles) east of Ramadi and around 40km (25 miles) west of the Iraqi capital of Baghdad.
The operation to liberate Fallujah actually began back on February 1st (1/2/16) when ISF troops moved to cut ISIL's supply lines between the Khalidiya Island region to the west and Fallujah. On February 15th (15/2/16) the ISF began another operation to cut ISIL's supply lines to the north centred around the town of Karma.
The objective of these twin operations was to lay siege to Fallujah.
The Battle of Fallujah itself didn't begin until May 23rd (23/5/16) when Karma was finally liberated with ISF forces not entering the city until May 30th (30/5/16). It then took another 27 days of fierce fighting for the battle to be won.
My main concern about the operation is that although it was significantly better co-ordinated than the Ramadi operation there was still a rush to enter the city itself before the siege had been fully put into place.
For example it wasn't until two weeks after ISF troops had entered Fallujah that the ISF moved to liberate the Fallujah dam on June 14th (14/6/16). During this time high value ISIL fighters were free to flee in that direction with weapons and equipment. Likewise it wasn't until two days later on June 16th (16/6/16) that the ISF attempted to enter the west of Fallujah from Falahat cutting down another ISIL escape route.
Laying an effective siege to a city before you attempt to liberate is almost essential to the success of that liberation because it carries with it a number of advantages.
Obviously it prevents fresh troops and supplies being brought into the city to reinforce its defences.
It also prevents troops and supplies being evacuated from the city where they can be used to fight another battle. Due to the failure to properly enforce siege conditions in Fallujah it's reported that senior ISIL commanders were able to escape to Mosul carrying with them some USD8million worth of cash an jewellery. Those resources with now likely be deployed in the defence of Mosul making the operation to liberate that city that little bit more difficult.
Perhaps more critically laying an effective siege to a city prior to its liberation allows the liberating force to much better control the city. This lets them build up vital intelligence of where the occupiers are focusing their defences and how those defences are supposed to operate. It also allows the liberating force to attack from multiple directions giving them a much better chance of overwhelming the occupiers defences.
This was a particular problem in Fallujah because having failed to properly secure the outskirts the ISF were forced to attack from only one direction in the south. This allowed ISIL concentrate all their forces on repelling that southern column. A day after the ISF launched their assault it had already ground to a halt on June 1st (1/6/16) raising the very real possibility that the ISF would have to retreat amid heavy casualties.
Fortunately the ISF recovered and were able to liberate the Namiyah district by June 5th (5/6/16). However it wasn't really until a second front was opened from the west on June 16th (16/6/16) that ISIL's defence of Fallujah fully started to crumble and the liberation picked up pace.
My other particular area of concern was the response that the liberation of Fallujah was met with from a number of western self-described humanitarian groups. Particularly the American Human Rights Watch (HRW).
Having secured enough to the south of the city to do so on June 12th (12/6/16) the ISF opened a humanitarian corridor under the supervision of the Norwegian Refugee Council to allow civilians to flee the fighting. As is standard practise the civilians fleeing through this corridor were stopped and searched to make sure that they were in fact civilians rather than ISIL fighters. As per the Geneva convention the particular focus was on men and boys of military age (15 years plus).
Human Rights Watch however decried this standard practise as a gross violation of human rights. They went on to demand that the practise immediately be stopped, an investigation launched and those responsible be prosecuted.
On the first day of the humanitarian corridor being opened the ISF managed to captured 546 ISIL fighters who were trying to flee Fallujah. Human Rights Watch presumably wanted those men to be set free to again take up arms in different parts of Iraq and Syria.
The liberation of Fallujah has been a devastating blow to ISIL. It has immediately removed a population of around 275,000 from the groups 'taxation' significantly damaging the groups finances.
Due to the failure to properly enforce a siege of Fallujah prior and during the liberation I am concerned that ISIL fighters have been able to re-group in the areas south and west of the Euphrates. As such I not yet happy to say that all of Anbar province has been liberated. However ISIL camps in that vast desert area can be dealt with through airstrikes and commando-style raids rather than large scale operations against urban areas.
Likewise due to the failure to properly complete the Tikrit operation prior to the start of the Anbar operation I am concerned that there remains a significant ISIL presence in Saladin and Diyala provinces. Particularly in the Hawija area between Baiji, Tikrit and Kirkuk. Dislodging ISIL from those towns and villages is going to be significantly more difficult than defeating them in the deserts of Anbar. However it will certainly be a lot easier than liberating a major city such as Fallujah or Ramadi.
Once the southern areas of Anbar along with Saladin and Diyala provinces have been fully secured work can begin on liberating Mosul - ISIL's de facto capital in Iraq. Once Mosul has been liberated ISIL will effectively have been completed ousted from Iraq and forced back into Syria.
With their complete removal from Iraq looming large ISIL have come under immense pressure to prove to their supporters that they remain a potent force.
They have largely attempted to do this through a series of bomb attacks in predominately Shia districts of Baghdad. The most significant of these occurred on July 3rd (3/7/16) in the Karrada district of the city and targeted families gathering to celebrate the end of the holy month of Ramadan. Here the initial explosion triggered a series of fires in the surrounding buildings killing more than 275 people making it the worst terror attack in Iraq's history.
Although none of them were that lethal prior to the liberation of Ramadi and then Fallujah ISIL bomb attacks against Baghdad's Shias were common place. Then the purpose seemed to be to inflame tensions between Shias and Sunnis in order to prevent the Shia militias collectively known as the Popular Mobilisation Forces (PMF) being used in the predominately Sunni Anbar province. Thus making it more difficult for an underpowered ISF to defeat ISIL in those areas.
The operation to liberate Fallujah was hailed as a way to end these bomb attacks on Baghdad. At the start of July the ISF made a big point of how they had been able to dismantle an ISIL bomb factory within Fallujah.
As such the attacks on Baghdad following the liberation of Fallujah seem intended to undermine confidence in the Iraq's government's claim that the operation will increase security for Baghdad's civilians. They come at a time when prominent Shia cleric Muqtada al-Sadr is leading Baghdad's Shia residents in protests against the government.
Therefore it seems that ISIL are now trying to trick Baghdad's Shia's into joining al-Sadr's protests. Ultimately I think that ISIL want to bring down the Iraqi government so there is no-one to fight them. Failing that they seem to want to force the government into deploying more troops to guard Baghdad. Those troops then can't be used to defeat ISIL elsewhere in the country.
In a similar vein on Sunday (31/7/16) ISIL launched twin attacks against oil facilities in Kirkuk. One against the AB2 station some 15km (10 miles) north-west of Kirkuk and the other against Bai Hassan station 40km (25 miles) north-west of Kirkuk. Both of these attacks were extremely small in nature involving no more than four ISIL fighters in each case and were quickly repelled.
Obviously the majority of the Iraqi government's revenues come from oil production. Therefore any disruption to their oil facilities will effect the national budget to some extent. However I don't think that on this occasion oil production was the main target.
Despite having large reserves of natural gas Iraq doesn't really have a domestic supply network bring gas to people's homes. As a result many Iraqis have to rely on bottled gas particularly for cooking. Those gas bottles are filled and distributed from facilities such as the AB2 station which seems to have been the main target of Sunday's (31/7/16) attack.
Therefore rather than attacking the national oil revenues ISIL instead seemed to be focused on making life more difficult for ordinary Iraqis by trying to stop the supply of bottled gas. After all when people are unable to cook their dinner they're much more likely to get angry at their government.
Sunday's attacks were of course very small and located close to ISIL's de facto Iraqi capital of Mosul rather than Baghdad. This along with the fact they know seem to be relying on the Iraqi people fighting the Iraqi government rather than being able to fight it themselves indicates to me that these attacks were actually a sign of ISIL's growing weakness in Iraq.
Despite their efforts to appear big and strong to their supporters it seems that following the liberation of Fallujah ISIL's leadership know that the end is coming for them. There have been persistent rumours that senior commanders have been ordered to prepare to abandon not only Iraq but also Syria and head for Libya via Turkey.
This obviously places a huge importance on the roughly 100km (60 mile) wide, 55km (35 mile) deep stretch of the Syria/Turkey border that has become known as "Erdogan's Pocket" or "Garvaghy Road". This stretches from Azaz in the west to the Euphrates River in the east and Aleppo City to the south.
17:15 on 2/8/16 (UK date).
A city of around 275,000 people Fallujah represented the last major population centre occupied in Iraq's vast south-western Anbar province. It sits around 45km (25 miles) east of Ramadi and around 40km (25 miles) west of the Iraqi capital of Baghdad.
The operation to liberate Fallujah actually began back on February 1st (1/2/16) when ISF troops moved to cut ISIL's supply lines between the Khalidiya Island region to the west and Fallujah. On February 15th (15/2/16) the ISF began another operation to cut ISIL's supply lines to the north centred around the town of Karma.
The objective of these twin operations was to lay siege to Fallujah.
The Battle of Fallujah itself didn't begin until May 23rd (23/5/16) when Karma was finally liberated with ISF forces not entering the city until May 30th (30/5/16). It then took another 27 days of fierce fighting for the battle to be won.
My main concern about the operation is that although it was significantly better co-ordinated than the Ramadi operation there was still a rush to enter the city itself before the siege had been fully put into place.
For example it wasn't until two weeks after ISF troops had entered Fallujah that the ISF moved to liberate the Fallujah dam on June 14th (14/6/16). During this time high value ISIL fighters were free to flee in that direction with weapons and equipment. Likewise it wasn't until two days later on June 16th (16/6/16) that the ISF attempted to enter the west of Fallujah from Falahat cutting down another ISIL escape route.
Laying an effective siege to a city before you attempt to liberate is almost essential to the success of that liberation because it carries with it a number of advantages.
Obviously it prevents fresh troops and supplies being brought into the city to reinforce its defences.
It also prevents troops and supplies being evacuated from the city where they can be used to fight another battle. Due to the failure to properly enforce siege conditions in Fallujah it's reported that senior ISIL commanders were able to escape to Mosul carrying with them some USD8million worth of cash an jewellery. Those resources with now likely be deployed in the defence of Mosul making the operation to liberate that city that little bit more difficult.
Perhaps more critically laying an effective siege to a city prior to its liberation allows the liberating force to much better control the city. This lets them build up vital intelligence of where the occupiers are focusing their defences and how those defences are supposed to operate. It also allows the liberating force to attack from multiple directions giving them a much better chance of overwhelming the occupiers defences.
This was a particular problem in Fallujah because having failed to properly secure the outskirts the ISF were forced to attack from only one direction in the south. This allowed ISIL concentrate all their forces on repelling that southern column. A day after the ISF launched their assault it had already ground to a halt on June 1st (1/6/16) raising the very real possibility that the ISF would have to retreat amid heavy casualties.
Fortunately the ISF recovered and were able to liberate the Namiyah district by June 5th (5/6/16). However it wasn't really until a second front was opened from the west on June 16th (16/6/16) that ISIL's defence of Fallujah fully started to crumble and the liberation picked up pace.
My other particular area of concern was the response that the liberation of Fallujah was met with from a number of western self-described humanitarian groups. Particularly the American Human Rights Watch (HRW).
Having secured enough to the south of the city to do so on June 12th (12/6/16) the ISF opened a humanitarian corridor under the supervision of the Norwegian Refugee Council to allow civilians to flee the fighting. As is standard practise the civilians fleeing through this corridor were stopped and searched to make sure that they were in fact civilians rather than ISIL fighters. As per the Geneva convention the particular focus was on men and boys of military age (15 years plus).
Human Rights Watch however decried this standard practise as a gross violation of human rights. They went on to demand that the practise immediately be stopped, an investigation launched and those responsible be prosecuted.
On the first day of the humanitarian corridor being opened the ISF managed to captured 546 ISIL fighters who were trying to flee Fallujah. Human Rights Watch presumably wanted those men to be set free to again take up arms in different parts of Iraq and Syria.
The liberation of Fallujah has been a devastating blow to ISIL. It has immediately removed a population of around 275,000 from the groups 'taxation' significantly damaging the groups finances.
Due to the failure to properly enforce a siege of Fallujah prior and during the liberation I am concerned that ISIL fighters have been able to re-group in the areas south and west of the Euphrates. As such I not yet happy to say that all of Anbar province has been liberated. However ISIL camps in that vast desert area can be dealt with through airstrikes and commando-style raids rather than large scale operations against urban areas.
Likewise due to the failure to properly complete the Tikrit operation prior to the start of the Anbar operation I am concerned that there remains a significant ISIL presence in Saladin and Diyala provinces. Particularly in the Hawija area between Baiji, Tikrit and Kirkuk. Dislodging ISIL from those towns and villages is going to be significantly more difficult than defeating them in the deserts of Anbar. However it will certainly be a lot easier than liberating a major city such as Fallujah or Ramadi.
Once the southern areas of Anbar along with Saladin and Diyala provinces have been fully secured work can begin on liberating Mosul - ISIL's de facto capital in Iraq. Once Mosul has been liberated ISIL will effectively have been completed ousted from Iraq and forced back into Syria.
With their complete removal from Iraq looming large ISIL have come under immense pressure to prove to their supporters that they remain a potent force.
They have largely attempted to do this through a series of bomb attacks in predominately Shia districts of Baghdad. The most significant of these occurred on July 3rd (3/7/16) in the Karrada district of the city and targeted families gathering to celebrate the end of the holy month of Ramadan. Here the initial explosion triggered a series of fires in the surrounding buildings killing more than 275 people making it the worst terror attack in Iraq's history.
Although none of them were that lethal prior to the liberation of Ramadi and then Fallujah ISIL bomb attacks against Baghdad's Shias were common place. Then the purpose seemed to be to inflame tensions between Shias and Sunnis in order to prevent the Shia militias collectively known as the Popular Mobilisation Forces (PMF) being used in the predominately Sunni Anbar province. Thus making it more difficult for an underpowered ISF to defeat ISIL in those areas.
The operation to liberate Fallujah was hailed as a way to end these bomb attacks on Baghdad. At the start of July the ISF made a big point of how they had been able to dismantle an ISIL bomb factory within Fallujah.
As such the attacks on Baghdad following the liberation of Fallujah seem intended to undermine confidence in the Iraq's government's claim that the operation will increase security for Baghdad's civilians. They come at a time when prominent Shia cleric Muqtada al-Sadr is leading Baghdad's Shia residents in protests against the government.
Therefore it seems that ISIL are now trying to trick Baghdad's Shia's into joining al-Sadr's protests. Ultimately I think that ISIL want to bring down the Iraqi government so there is no-one to fight them. Failing that they seem to want to force the government into deploying more troops to guard Baghdad. Those troops then can't be used to defeat ISIL elsewhere in the country.
In a similar vein on Sunday (31/7/16) ISIL launched twin attacks against oil facilities in Kirkuk. One against the AB2 station some 15km (10 miles) north-west of Kirkuk and the other against Bai Hassan station 40km (25 miles) north-west of Kirkuk. Both of these attacks were extremely small in nature involving no more than four ISIL fighters in each case and were quickly repelled.
Obviously the majority of the Iraqi government's revenues come from oil production. Therefore any disruption to their oil facilities will effect the national budget to some extent. However I don't think that on this occasion oil production was the main target.
Despite having large reserves of natural gas Iraq doesn't really have a domestic supply network bring gas to people's homes. As a result many Iraqis have to rely on bottled gas particularly for cooking. Those gas bottles are filled and distributed from facilities such as the AB2 station which seems to have been the main target of Sunday's (31/7/16) attack.
Therefore rather than attacking the national oil revenues ISIL instead seemed to be focused on making life more difficult for ordinary Iraqis by trying to stop the supply of bottled gas. After all when people are unable to cook their dinner they're much more likely to get angry at their government.
Sunday's attacks were of course very small and located close to ISIL's de facto Iraqi capital of Mosul rather than Baghdad. This along with the fact they know seem to be relying on the Iraqi people fighting the Iraqi government rather than being able to fight it themselves indicates to me that these attacks were actually a sign of ISIL's growing weakness in Iraq.
Despite their efforts to appear big and strong to their supporters it seems that following the liberation of Fallujah ISIL's leadership know that the end is coming for them. There have been persistent rumours that senior commanders have been ordered to prepare to abandon not only Iraq but also Syria and head for Libya via Turkey.
This obviously places a huge importance on the roughly 100km (60 mile) wide, 55km (35 mile) deep stretch of the Syria/Turkey border that has become known as "Erdogan's Pocket" or "Garvaghy Road". This stretches from Azaz in the west to the Euphrates River in the east and Aleppo City to the south.
17:15 on 2/8/16 (UK date).
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