Operation Featherweight: Month 20, Week 3, Day 5.

On Friday February 26th (26/2/16) a 14 day ceasefire began in Syria. This obviously expired last Friday March 11th (11/3/16). However it seems to be continuing to rollover on a day-by-day basis.

Away from the formal ceasefire Russia and the Syrian government's unilateral decision to also stop fighting the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL), the Al Qaeda affiliated Al Nusra Front (ANF) and all associated groups also appears to be continuing.

With no plan of their own this situation seems to have left the US roaming the earth looking for someone to tell them what to do next.

The first part of this tour saw US Vice President Joe Biden travel to the United Arab Emirates (UAE) last Monday (7/3/16). Despite it being an Islamic Monarchy and Dubai's trashiness of the nations such as Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Bahrain that make up the Gulf Co-operation Council (GCC) the UAE is certainly the most moderate and sensible.

The main topic of conversation seemed to be this renewed threat to attack Russia if Russia continues to fight ISIL, ANF and associated groups.

This threat first emerged in the summer of 2013 and culminated in a series of suicide bombings in the Russian city of Volgograd in the weeks running up to the 2014 Winter Olympics that were held in the near-by city of Sochi. The overthrow of the Ukrainian government and the sanctions of Russia that followed were an American apology for helping to stop terror attacks on the Olympics itself.

With the 2016 Summer Olympics taking place in Rio de Janerio, Brazil in the coming months Turkey in particular seems to be lobbying hard for a repeat of what happened during the 2008 Summer Olympics in Beijing. That is the Georgian government once again launching an attack on its ethnically Russian minority civilian population forcing Russia to intervene to protect them. As with Ukraine that would provide an excuse for sanctions to be placed on Russia. At Turkey's urging the frozen conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan also seems to be heating up again.

In order to promote discussion about this topic the US-led Combined Joint Task Force: Operation Inherent Resolve (CJTFOIR) on March 4th (4/3/16) carried out a targeted air-strike against a senior ISIL commander by the name of Tarkhan Tayumurazovich Batirashvili (AKA: "Abu Omar al-Shishani" "Omar the Chechen"). Although a member of the Chechen ethnic group Batirashvili is a Georgian national and a former member of the Georgian Special Forces who is both a veteran of the 2003 US-led invasion of Iraq and the 2008 attack on Georgia's ethnically Russian minority.

In terms of senior ISIL commanders that CJTFOIR could locate to target with an air-strike who represent the growing tensions between Turkey and Russia one of Batirashvili's aliases "Al-Shishani" is close enough to the name of the Syrian town of "Al-Shadadi." This was the last place that the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF/QSD) were able to liberate from ISIL before US pressure forced them to stop.

In the days before Biden's arrival two US nationals were killed in a car crash in the UAE. One of the deceased - Victoria McGrath - was reasonably famous as one of the more photogenic survivors of the April 15th 2013 (15/4/13) bomb attacks on the Boston Marathon. The crash was a result of a two-seater sports car carrying four people being driven by a drunk man at over 100mph in a 25mph zone. Presumably the Canadian driver - Cody Nixon - thought he and Ms Nixon would only be making headlines for getting arrested.

The Boston Marathon bombing was many, many things. However the fact that the two attackers - the Tsarnaev brothers - were Muslims from the Russian Caucus region of Chechnya was intended as the US throwing it's support behind the threat to attack Russia if it continued fighting ISIL, ANF and associated groups.

Turkey clearly took all this as permission to launch attacks against Russia. So on Friday (11/3/16) a car bomb exploded outside a Mosque in the Nazran area of the Russian Caucus region of Ingushetia which sits right on the border with Georgia. Ingushetia is a majority Muslim area. 

However the dominant form of Islam practised there is Sufi Islam. Predominately but not exclusively a form of Shia-Islam Sufism represents the polar opposite of the extreme Salafi, Sunni-Islam practised by groups such as ISIL and Al Qaeda. The bombing seems to have been a Salafi attempt to assassinate a Sufi Iman who is opposed to ISIL, Al Qaeda and associated groups.  

In the hours before the explosion a Turkish newspaper with extremely close ties to the ruling Justice & Development Party (AKP) published an editorial announcing that Russia would soon experience the wrath of Turkey and the wrath of Islam. Sunni extremists like those who support the AKP do not consider Shias or Sufis to be Muslims.

In response to the Nazran attack the US State Department changed its advice to US citizens travelling to Turkey warning of looming terrorist threat. The message quite simply being that having carried out the Nazran attack Turkey represents an imminent terrorist threat.

Unfortunately that seems to have been too subtle for Turkish President/Prime Minister/Emperor Recep Tayyip Erdogan and the AKP. So on Sunday (14/3/16) they unleashed yet another terrorist bombing on the Turkish capital Ankara. So far that bombing has killed 32 and wounded more then 100.

The specific location of the bombing is what I suppose you would describe as a public transport hub. It is a railway station where numerous different lines intersect. It is also a point where various different bus and tram lines intersect. As such it is packed with people changing between buses, trams and trains.

The Russia city of Volgograd which was targeted back in December 2013 functioned as the main transport hub for the Sochi Olympics. Rather than flying directly into Sochi visitors to the Olympics would fly into Volgograd and then either drive or use public transport to get to Sochi. The specific targets hit there were a railway station and a trolley bus/tram stop outside of a railway station. 

While it is yet to be determined how truthful it is the Turkish authorities are claiming that the bomb was loaded into a black BMW car. Although amid all the Russian I'm not fully aware of the context the recurring image of the Nazran bombing was of a black BMW - or possibly Mercedes - car torn apart by the explosion.

As such the Ankara bombing was staged to make it look like Russia had teamed up with the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) to carry out an attack in revenge for the Nazran bombing. Therefore the entire World and the all of Turkey's voters had better unite behind Erdogan and the AKP to defend the nation from the scourge of Russian and PKK aggression.

I actually thought the decision to immediately blame the PKK directly showed a distinct lack of creative flair. I honestly expected them to go for something more exotic such as the Revolutionary People's Liberation Front/Party (DHKP-C) or the Kurdistan Freedom Falcons (TAK) as they did with the February 17th (17/2/16) Ankara bombing or the October 10th (10/10/15) Ankara bombing.

The second leg of Biden's trip took him to Israel on Tuesday (8/3/16). Here the main topic of conversation seemed to be the massive number of lone-wolf terror attacks that Israel has experienced over the past six months. This is of course the result of ISIL sitting just across Israel's border in Syria calling for people to carry out lone-wolf terror attacks against the "Zionist Crusaders."

To this end the US staged a lone-wolf terror attack on Tuesday evening along the Tel Aviv sea-front close to Jaffa port. What made this attack slightly unusual is that most attacks in Israel occur near Jerusalem where Israel meets Palestine. Tel Aviv however is slap bang in the middle of Israel and isn't really disputed. The attack also occurred close to where Biden was dining with his family and a US tourist - Taylor Force - was killed.

What appears to have happened is that a local CIA asset has let it be known where and when Biden would be dining. At the same time they've nudged the Vanderbilt University tour group that Force was travelling with in the same direction. If the two met they would get the headline. If they didn't it would still be a terror attack close to where the US Vice President was dining.

It must be said though that even with a US citizen being killed I did initially struggled to distinguish that attack from the two other attacks that took place in Israel that day.

The third leg of Biden's trip took him to Jordan on Friday (11/3/16). Although an Islamic Monarchy Jordan is one of the most sensible nations in the region. Sitting directly on the border with Syria they can see that the war going on there has nothing to do with overthrowing a dictator and building a prosperous democracy. These days it's not even a sectarian Sunni/Shia conflict anymore. It's simply a nation and a people being destroyed. 

We need to put a stop to all that before we can even entertain discussions about niceties such as elections and constitutional reforms.

Sadly with lots of talk about it being a slow process that will take lots of patience the US' message to Jordan seemed to be that they should quit complaining and just learn to enjoy the bloodshed.

On Wednesday (9/3/16) the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) received a special briefing on Iraq's Mosul Dam. 

As with January's briefing on global warming in East Africa this type of session is normally used to give UN staffers an opportunity to sit the Americans down and explain to them exactly what they're doing wrong. Unfortunately I can't really tell what was being discussed because I think a range of topics were being discussed. Rest assured though that the actual Mosul Dam was at the absolute bottom of that list.

The problem with the Mosul Dam is that it was really badly designed to begin with. The weight of the structure combined with the effect of the water causes the porous rock on which it is built to erode forming effectively sinkholes. Eventually the Iraqis are going to have to build a whole new dam. However this problem has been known about since the dam opened in 1984 and is easily managed by constantly pouring cement into the holes. The current problem is that ISIL have seized control of the near-by factory that produces this cement.

You may remember that this year's Oscars was dominated by a 2012 French TV show "Les Revenants." Set in a French town a major plotline is concerns that the dam at the centre of the town will collapse flooding it. They are particularly interested in these sinkholes and caverns that keep mysteriously appearing beneath the dam.

Another big theme at the Oscars was the English Actress Charlotte Rampling. Particularly her work exploring the rise of ISIL-style nihilist ideology in Liliana Cavani's so-called "Nazi Trilogy." Although not part of the trilogy Rampling also appeared in the 1977 Nazi themed movie "The Damned." I suspect that of the four movies that is probably the easiest to hold a UNSC briefing on.

On Thursday (10/3/16) US Secretary of State John Kerry picked up the baton from Vice President Biden to make the trip to Saudi Arabia. As always this saw the US immediately throw itself prostrate at the feet of Saudi King Salman al-Saud.

Just before Kerry departed the US let it be known that it intends to blame Saudi Arabia's arch enemy Iran harmlessly hacking into a US dam back in 2013. This was the US going; "We didn't understand the UNSC briefing. BUT WE'RE GOING TO BLAME IRAN ANYWAY!!!!"

Later in the day there was the downright surreal announcement that a US Court had ordered Iran to pay USD10bn in compensation for the September 11th 2001 (11/9/01) terror attacks. Those attacks were of course planned by a Saudi national and carried out by 15 Saudi nationals including one who was housed in the Saudi Embassy. There is absolutely no indication let alone evidence that Iran was in any way involved in the attacks. 

In fact in a previous compensation case against Saudi Arabia the same Judge - George Daniels - had ruled that nations have what is termed Sovereign Immunity in the matter and therefore could not be held liable for compensation.

Judge Daniel's reasoning appears to be that Iran supports the Lebanese political party/militia Hezbollah who the US classes as a terror group. Therefore with all terrorists being exactly the same Hezbollah and therefore Iran must've been responsible for 9/11. Even if Hezbollah are on the opposite side of the sectarian divide to Al Qaeda.

At the invitation of the Syrian government Hezbollah are currently fighting in Syria against Saudi-backed terror groups such as ISIL and ANF. As such in February 2016 Saudi Arabia joined the US and Israel in declaring Hezbollah as a terrorist group and last week forced the Arab League to follow suit. The US is obviously signalling it's support for this move regardless of the destabilising effect it is having on Lebanon.

On Sunday (13/3/16) John Kerry travelled to Paris, France to discuss the way forward on Syria and Iraq with various European leaders. To make sure that King Salman's orders continued to ring in his ears that day Saudi Arabia carried out in Cote d' Ivorie (Ivory Coast) that so far has killed 18.

The main objective here seems to be this hideous Paris draft agreement which ratified will prevent any action being taken to combat climate change either now or at any point in the future. With the ratification process beginning with a signing ceremony in April Saudi Arabia is desperately trying to scare up votes to make the so-called 12/12 Atrocity a reality.

Initially the Saudis were trying to achieve this by putting pressure of East/Central African nations such as Kenya and Ethiopia through Al-Shabaab based in Somalia. However of late the US has begun gently indicating that it might be prepared to support those nations against the terrorist onslaught. For example last Sunday (6/3/16) the US claims to have killed 150 Al-Shabaab fighters in an air-strike. On Tuesday (8/3/16) the US appears to have carried out a Special Forces raid against Al-Shabaab.

In response the Saudis seem to be shifting their attention to West/Central African nations. There is obviously Boko Haram who are active in Nigeria and its neighbours. However the Saudis also seem to be resurrecting Al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) who were responsible for the 2012 Islamist takeover of northern Mali. 

Although significantly weakened just before the 2015 COP21 Summit AQIM launched an attack on a hotel in Mali's capital Bamako. In an effort to show that they can operate outside of Mali's borders on January 15th (15/1/16) launched a similar attack against a hotel in Ouagadougou, the capital of Mali's neighbour Burkina Faso. 

Sunday's attack on hotels in Cote d' Ivorie sees AQIM's reach extend even further. The hope seems to be to give the impression that they will be able to threaten the areas of west Africa beyond Boko Haram's reach.  

At around 17:40 on 14/3/16 (UK date) I've still got a little more to add. After dinner.    
  
Edited at around 19:25 on 14/3/16 (UK date) to add;

Beyond threatening Cote d' Ivorie and its West African neighbours Sunday's attack was also intended as a threat to the US and the European nations John Kerry was meeting with in Paris.

Of the European colonialists France maintains a much closer relationship with its former colonies than anybody else. It's a bit of quiz trivia worth remembering that in terms of timezones France is actually the largest nation on Earth because it includes all of it's former colonies. Therefore if a terror attack occurs in a nation like Cote d' Ivorie it forces the French security and intelligence services to engage in much the same way as if the attack had occurred in France.

The nature of the attack with gunmen walking along the beaches of numerous hotels shooting at everything that moved is exactly the same as the June 26th 2015 (26/6/15) attack on tourists on the beaches of Sousse in Tunisia. Claiming the lives of 30 British citizens this was the UK's single worst loss of life in a terrorist attack since the July 7th 2005 (7/7/05) bombings in London. 

However it was not only British citizens who were killed in that attack and holiday makers from across Europe - particularly Germany and Russia - used to flock to winter holidays in Tunisia and Egypt. One suspects the attacks in those countries were intended to drive European tourists to Turkish beaches instead. 

Due to its colonial past and its more recent history of civil wars many Ivorians have actually migrated to Europe - particularly France and the UK. Seriously I think you would be surprised how frequently I overhear Ivorian French when I'm going to the shops or generally running errands. Many of these dual nationals frequently return to Cote d' Ivorie to go on holiday or meet up with relatives. 

Therefore if an attack occurs in a country like Cote d' Ivorie many European governments will have to prepare themselves for the death of their citizens and the evacuation of their relatives. Although its yet to be confirmed I strongly suspect that the four French nationals killed in the attack form part of this group.

The hotel that does seem to have been worst hit by the attack - Etoile du Sud - had been scheduled to host a recruitment fair for American universities including the University of Florida. The keynote speaker at that event was US Assistant Secretary of Commerce Marcus Jadotte although the US delegation had not arrived at the time of the attack. 

That of course sent the message to the US that not only could its citizens be attacked but also its senior government officials could be targeted. However I think mainly it was intended as an enquiry as to what conclusions VP Biden had come to following his similar brush with terror in Israel.

Today the latest round of UN sponsored negotiations between Al Qaeda affiliated groups and the Syrian government have begun in Geneva, Switzerland. 

At best the objective of these talks is to freeze the conflict giving ISIL, ANF and associated groups limited but permenant safe-haven within Syrian. At worst its objective is to overthrow the Syrian government giving ISIL, ANF and associated groups free-run of the place and whatever nation Erdogan wants to declare himself Emperor of next.

Displaying stunningly poor judgement both the US and France used the start of these talks to once again criticise Russia for fighting ISIL, ANF and associated groups. So this evening Russia announced that it is to start withdrawing its forces from Syria tomorrow.

This is essentially Russia turning around to the US and the EU and going; 

"Well if you can't keep a civil tongue in your heads you're going to have to solve this mess on your own."    

I believe that's known in the trade as; "Throwing a big gay hissy fit."

20:00 on 14/3/16 (UK date).

    



 

Chicago Plumbs New Depths.

You may remember that way back on August 9th 2014 (9/8/14) the Black Lives Matter (BLM) political group was born in the US with the death of Micheal Brown.

This was part of a co-ordinated effort to bring violence, racial hatred and frankly tin foil hat style lunacy into the political mainstream.

It's objective was to sweep the Democrat Party to a majority in both houses of Congress at the November 2014 mid-term election on a popular wave against 'Republican Racism!" It failed and the Democrats went on to suffer their worst election result in almost 70 years.

Since then absolutely nothing has been done to reign in Black Lives Matter and protect US democracy from their nonsense.

The way that the Democrats use of violence and cynical playing of the race has seemingly brought the US to the brink of civil war was the main theme of the 2016 Super Bowl. It was nice though the way that Beyonce was welcomed back into the fold once she stopped her fringe, extremist nonsense.

The way that Black Lives Matter have become the boot boys for the new McCarthyism was also a major theme at the recent Oscars.

The US is currently in the grips of yet another election campaign and this time the Democrats are focused entirely on getting Hillary Clinton elected President.

It should come as no surprise then that once again Black Lives Matter are out in full force. On Friday (11/3/16) they attacked a rally by presumption Republican Presidential nominee Donald Trump in Chicago, Illinois forcing it to be cancelled amid violence and threats to public safety.

In terms of a riot this was pretty tame. However as an attack on democracy it was very serious.

For example back in October 2015 the Kurdish Movement for Change (Gorran) Party tried a similar stunt when they sent protesters to attack the offices of the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) in the Iraqi city of Sulaimani. In response to that outrage Gorran were suspended from all political activity and remain suspended to this day.

On February 23rd (23/2/16) the new Government of National Accord tried holding its first session in that bastion of political stability Libya. Using the tactics of Black Lives Matter in Chicago extremists opposed to that government tried using blockades and violence to prevent the session from taking place. The following day the US' own State Department issued the following statement;

"We are deeply concerned by reports that a small hardline minority used physical intimidation and threats to disrupt the February 23 session of the House of Representatives in Tobruk in order to prevent a vote on the Cabinet. We strongly condemn all attempts to obstruct the Libyan political process."

In terms of reigning in Black Lives Matter to protect America's democracy it should be relatively easy.

Due to the organisations associated with large scale theft (looting), illegal narcotics distribution and violence they fit the criteria of a criminal street gang. Certainly since the terror attack that killed two police officers in New York City on December 20th 2014 (20/12/14) Black Lives Matter has also fitted the criteria of a domestic terror group.

Either of these designations would make membership of Black Lives Matter or association with the through the use of slogans, display of colours or hand gestures used by the group an arrestable offence.

Even without reaching for those extreme measures through their repeated attempts to deny access to a host of public facilities members of Black Lives Matter could be prosecuted for numerous violations of the 1964 Civil Rights Act that they claim to cherish so much.

Failing that members of Black Lives Matter could simply be prosecuted for the various, everyday criminal acts they commit. For example every person who had entered the private venue where the Trump rally was being held with the intention of disrupting it can and should be prosecuted for criminal trespass.

What makes Friday's events interesting is that up until now Black Lives Matter have been protected by the Obama administration in its role as the head of the Federal Government.

However the Secret Service is under as much obligation to protect all the Presidential candidates including Donald Trump as it is President Obama. That duty goes far beyond the men in sunglasses and the side of the stage to making sure the threats are resolved long before they ever get that close.

If the Obama administration continues to prevent the Secret Service from doing their job in order to protect Black Lives Matter and their attacks on Obama's political opponents then that would represent a very serious abuse of power.

13:20 on 13/3/16 (UK date).

The Sun of Saul Dawns

On Sunday February 28th (28/2/16) the Obama administration demanded that the Hungarian movie "Son of Saul" was awarded the Oscar for Best Foreign Feature.

This was unfortunate because that movie struck me as an extremely cynical attempt by Hungary to use the issue of the Nazi Holocaust to embarrass Germany. At the same time Hungary along with Poland is trying very hard to deny it's own Nazi past and its increasingly Nazi present. 

Within European Union (EU) politics this tension is currently causing a lot of trouble in two key areas; The sanctions against Russia in support of the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) and the refugee crisis that support for ISIL has created.

So right on cue on Monday February 29th (29/2/16) the EU refugee crisis once again exploded. This saw violence both in Calais, France on the border with the UK and in Greece on the border with Macedonia - a non-EU state.

Although this was news the situation is Calais is far from new. What really annoys me about the current refugee crisis is that it is nothing that the EU - particularly the original, core states - haven't had to deal with before. 

For example I actually went to school with a lot of Polish Catholics. Unlike today in the 1980's that had absolutely nothing to do with the EU's free movement of people policy. Instead it's because their families had been taken in by the UK as refugees from first the Nazi and then the Soviet occupation.

The next big wave of refugees came with the end of the Cold War and the numerous Balkan wars of the 1990's that created many of the newer EU member states. There was also something of a third wave in the late 1990's following the NATO invasion of Serbia and the occupation of its southern Kosovo province.

Due to a variety of reasons - particularly the global dominance of the English language - a lot of these refugees wanted to come to the UK. However while Britain seems to really enjoy smashing up countries it really doesn't like having to deal with the consequences. As a result it refused to take in many of these refugees leaving them stuck in Calais.

The French government did use to house them in a dedicated refugee centre in Sangatte which became known as the Sangatte Refugee Centre. However the UK was very opposed to even this arguing that providing humane conditions for refugees in Calais somehow encouraged more refugees to try and enter the UK. As a result after more than a decade of heated political argument the British government finally forced the French government to close the Sangatte centre in 2007.

Funnily enough this didn't solve the problem and large numbers of prospective refugees continue to congregate in Calais. However rather than being housed in a properly managed centre they are forced to live in a series of illegal squatter camps collectively known as "The Jungle." 

As you would expect conditions in these camps are pretty squalid with no proper housing, no proper sanitation and no rule of law subjecting the people forced to live in them to disease and violence. With the new waves of refugees caused by ISIL conditions in the Calais camps have begun to deteriorate dramatically.

So in the last couple of months the French authorities have set about building more formalised refugee camps in Calais with sanitation and comparatively sturdy buildings made out of shipping containers. They then ordered the demolition of the squatter camps to force people into the formal camps.

The problem is that the UK has viewed this building of formal camps in Calais as an precursor to re-opening the Sangatte refugee camp. As a result the Jungle camps suddenly became a cause celbre for Britain's 'caring liberals.' The band Coldplay even referenced it at the recent BRIT Awards. 

The UK's objective of this sort of multi-channel onslaught was of course to smear the French plan in order to keep the squalid squatter camps open and prevent the more formal camps being opened.

Key pawns in this effort have been the British protest group "No Borders." They like to refer to themselves as Anarchists although I suspect Anarchists tend to use a different term to refer to them. 

Salivating at the prospect of a big violent confrontation with the police No Borders have been going around the Jungle telling the the prospective refugees all sorts of lies to get them to refuse to move to the more formal camps and resist the eviction. Probably the most grievous of those lies is that the formal camps are in fact deportation camps when No Borders know full well that actual deportation camps are a lot more secure than that.

Despite decades of evidence that this beggar-thy-neighbour approach to refugees simply does not work it is still the approach that everyone in the EU is insisting on taking. This is what has forced Macedonia to close its border with Greece triggering the violent scenes seen there.

In part everyone has been forced into this by German Chancellor/Head of Government Angela Merkel's ridiculous and emotionally driven decision to invite all of the World's refugees and economic migrants to come to journey before the EU had drawn up a plan of how to deal with them.

However the much more serious problem has been Hungary's utter commitment to the beggar-thy-neighbour approach that has seen it time and time again block an EU-wide response to the crisis. 

Not only did they attempt to block that plan being agreed back in September 2015 when it was passed by a two-thirds majority they filed a legal challenge to prevent the plan being put into action. Hungary is now staging a referendum to reject the plan in the hope that it can be used to block the plan further when the Court eventually but inevitably rules against them.

With Hungary almost single handedly preventing the EU from responding to the refugee crisis this has left the other EU member states along with the neighbouring states with no option other than to follow Hungary's example and build border fences to keep the refugees out.

Unfortunately this is not an option for Greece because their main border is not a land border that can be sealed with razor wire but sea border. Specifically the 11th largest sea border in the World made up 14,000km (8,500 miles) spread across thousands of islands. Therefore if Greece wants to behave like everyone else in the EU and seal its border to refugee it will have to persuade Turkey to stop the refugees taking to the sea in the first place.

The problem with this is that Turkey is deliberately and intentionally flooding the EU with refugees for political gain. I believe the term NATO Commander for Europe General Phillip Breedlove used was "Weaponised" even if for a NATO commander Breedlove does seem to have an extremely poor understanding of both geography and time keeping.

In the first instance Turkey's weaponisation of refugees is to sow division and discord amongst the EU member states. With EU governments at each other's throats it becomes much more difficult for the EU to put unified pressure on Turkey to end its support for ISIL, the Al Qaeda affiliated Al Nusra Front (ANF) and associated groups. This is despite Turkey's support for such terrorist groups posing a clear and present threat to the safety and security of the EU and its citizens.

In the second instance Turkey's weaponisation of predominately Muslim refugees is to radicalise the Islamist base of the Justice & Development Party (AKP). By showing Muslim refugees being beaten by police in squalid border camps the AKP and their leader Recep Tayyip Erdogan is hoping to send the message that the EU hates Muslims. This of course makes it even more difficult for the EU to put pressure on Turkey to end its support for terrorism. It also makes it much more difficult Turks who share EU values such as rights for women and press freedom to complain when Erdogan tries to take those rights away. 

It should hardly come as a surprise to anyone that the flow of refugees from Turkey massively increased in the summer of 2015. 

This of course was the same time that Turkey was coming under increased pressure to close its border to ISIL to deny them fighters and equipment. It was also the time where the AKP failed to win a majority in the General Election forcing Erdogan to launch attacks against the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) in order to prop up support for his plans for an Executive Presidency.

In the third instance Turkey's weaponisation of refugees is simply to extort concessions from the EU.

Therefore the notion that the EU should negotiate with Turkey over the refugee issue reminds me of that old adage that you should never wrestle with a pig. You'll both get dirty but only the pig will enjoy it.

Unfortunately due to Hungary's intransigence and frankly political naivety that is exactly what the EU has been forced to do. On Monday (7/3/16) the EU meet with Turkey to provisional agree a 6 point plan to tackle the refugee crisis.

It is testament to how bad that deal is that you will struggle to find an EU based news report that is prepared to tell you what those 6 points are. However the one point that everyone is prepared to champion is a mechanism that will see Turkey take back an irregular migrant for every refugee that the EU accepts from camps in Turkey. This is simply not going to happen.

Turkey has already made clear that it will not accept a single irregular migrant until all existing irregular migrants have been evacuated from Greece. That process cannot begin until Hungary drops its legal challenge and the EU migrant quota system goes into action. 

Even then it will take a substantial amount of time to clear that backlog because there are currently around 1 million irregular migrants in Greece. Adjusted for population that is around five times as many refugees as there are currently in Turkey. You can guarantee that while the EU is working to clear the backlog Turkey will continue sending more irregular migrants at at least the current rate of 2,300 per day.

If by some miracle the backlog is cleared and Turkey does officially start accepting returning irregular migrants you can be assured the first irregular migrants to be sent back will be fully supported by Turkish *ahem* human rights groups to launch a legal challenge that could take years to resolve.

In return for Turkey not, in any way, stemming the flow of irregular migrants or accepting back a single one the EU has decided to pay an extremely heavy price to leave the situation exactly the same at it is.

The first part of this price is clear. It is E3bn (USD3bn/GBP2bn) to be paid directly to Turkey. As the deal progresses the EU will pay a further E3bn to Turkey giving a total of E6bn of blood money to Turkey.

The second price the EU will pay is slightly more complicated. It will re-open EU membership negotiations with Turkey. The problem is that between the support for terrorism, the crushing on internal dissent and press freedoms and the continued Turkish military occupation of EU memberstate Cyprus there is not a single thing that qualifies Turkey to be a member of the EU. As such in order for those negotiations continue the EU will have to permanently scrap the core values on which it was founded.

The third price however is almost as clear as the first. Even without Turkey becoming an EU member state the EU will grant free access to Turkey's population of 80 million to the EU's Schengen passport free zone from June 2016. This means that the entire population of Turkey including all the refugees/irregular migrants will be free to enter every EU state without a security check or even a passport check.  

I suppose though technically that last concession will end all irregular/illegal migration from Turkey into the EU. By making all migration in effect legal.  

So rather than engaging in anymore discussions with Turkey over the refugee crisis the EU first needs to get its own house in order. This involves Hungary dropping its legal challenge and the quota system going into force. What will really help that along is Chancellor Merkel finally conceding that she made a mistake rather than carrying on in the vain hope that her peers and her voters will somehow be fooled into thinking otherwise.

Once the EU has its own plan up and running it can then go back to Turkey. Not to beg that the flow of irregular migrants stops but to demand it. Oneway to go about that is to levy a E200,000 charge to pay for the upkeep of every irregular migrant Turkey tries to impose on the EU. That will be paid out of tax levied on every Turkish import to the EU including the tourism sector.  

As soon as Turkey realises it will be paying a price for its misbehaviour rather than receiving a reward its weaponisation of migrants will stop in the blink on an eye. 

16:55 on 11/3/16 (UK date).