In the past thirty minutes the UK has welcomed in 2016 by moving from New Years Eve (NYE) to New Years Day. Thus this post represents the sh*ttest New Years celebration in history.
As I mentioned yesterday and seem to mention every year NYE is a completely secular celebration with absolutely no religious element to it whatsoever.
By 1917 we had established that the earth takes 8,766 hours (365.25 days) to orbit the sun - the solar year. Obviously to stop these orbits blurring into one we had to set a specific hour on a specific day when one year would end and a new one would begin. We also had to set a specific location on earth where this hour would occur so everybody moved onto the new year at the same time.
So after 8 years of international negotiation it was decided that the year would end in the middle of winter when no-one in the northern hemisphere was that busy and the international date line would be put in the middle of the Pacific Ocean where very few people lived.
Therefore technically wherever you are in the world 2016 began more then 12 hours ago and all we are celebrating is a clock ticking over from 23:59:59 to 00:00:00 rather then any religious event. Saudi Arabia though does of course continue to dispute that the earth orbits around the sun.
As a result New Years Eve is an event that can be celebrated by all with little risk of offending anyone. Even the Democratic Peoples Republic of Korea (DPRK/North) made their celebrations available to the international pool this year. However they did pointedly celebrate an hour before the Republic of Korea (RoK/South).
Unfortunately in recent years the inclusiveness of the celebration has led to a degree of competition between nations to see who can put on the most spectacular celebration. A lot of the blame for this has to lay with the UK.
Although NYE is rarely time for accurate note taking I think it was in the mid-2000's that the UK took to putting on a large fireworks display on the River Thames in front of the London Eye Ferris wheel. The attraction here wasn't so much the fireworks themselves but the specially composed musical track that they were synchronised with.
For this the UK takes its inspiration from what is known as a "Numbers Station." This is an element of spy trade-craft that was extremely popular during the Cold War although its roots can be traced back further then that. Essentially covert operatives would be instructed to tune into a specific radio frequency at a specific time.
For five or so minute burst this otherwise unused frequency would broadcast seemingly random numbers, letters and words over short bursts of music and other sound effects. To everybody else this sounded like there was interference on the frequency.
However to those in possession of the right codebook the broadcast contained hidden messages. For example the "da, da, da, daaa" sequence in Beethoven's 5th symphony is Morse code for the letter "V."
While I didn't get my notebook out to give you an idea tonight's soundtrack featured a little burst of "Swing Low Sweet Chariot" in reference to the 2015 Rugby World Cup. There was also a song by a band called "Apollo 440" which was a reference to the most important astronaut in history - Tim Peake. There was also a song called "Rio" in reference to the 2016 Summer Olympics.
Amid bursts of various party staples that could be references or just mis-directs there was also a small portion of the INXS song "Need You Tonight." I took this as both a reference to the Sandra Bland suicide and attempt to manipulate me into writing this.
To slow it down there was also a bit of Cilla Black in reference to the death of Cilla Black and a little bit of One Direction in reference to the death of One Direction. Sorry "Hiatus."
Obviously with computer technology advancing the old long wave radio numbers stations have fallen out of favour somewhat. The problem with this was highlighted earlier on NYE's when the BBC's Internet presence - the third largest in the UK - went down in an apparent hacking.
Prompted by the frankly disturbing Error message that the BBC put up this caused a degree of panic. After all it's an open secret that BBC Radio 4 being taken off air for 4 minutes is a signal to the UK's nuclear armed submarines that the Cold War had suddenly got hot and they should fire at will.
The London firework display ended with a very ominous looking mushroom cloud of smoke.
A big adopter of the idea of the competitive NYE celebration has been the Arab Emirate of Dubai. Unfortunately much like a chav that's just won the lottery Dubai has a huge budget but very little style.
In 2014 - at great expense - Dubai set the official world record for the largest fireworks display detonating some 500,000 shells - 1,332 per second - in and around the Burj Khalifa which happens to hold the world record for being the world's tallest building.
This year Dubai was clearly still struggling to pay off 2014's display. So they pulled the old trick of setting fire to a building for the insurance money. The building in question was the "Address Downtown" hotel which sits a few 100 metres/yards from the Burj Khalifa.
Obviously this fire made the entire world focus on Dubai for a full two hours. People were particularly interested to see if they would go ahead with their fireworks planned for the Burj Khalifa. They did but with a five minute delay that eked out their moment in the spotlight that little bit longer.
I gather that delay was repeated - to the second - by Russia in their Moscow firework display.
Then of course there is the terror alert that has shut down railway stations in the Bavarian city of Munich in Germany.
Some of you may have noticed that this plot sounds remarkably similar to the most recent, Season 5 of the US TV show "Homeland" which is set in Germany.
However I should point out that Homeland does have a reputation for being a very well researched show. Also when I said yesterday that NYE represents a prime target for a mass casualty terror attack I was thinking specifically of the large crowds being bottle-necked into railway stations on their way home. Mind you the crowd safety steward always worries about pouring that many drunk people into small railway stations.
One thing that may indicate that this threat is simply spies mucking about is that the intelligence was provided by France. Following the November 13th (13/11/15) Paris Massacres France is still waiting for US President Obama to attend a NATO Summit to invoke Article 5. Needless to say NYE celebrations in Paris were distinctly sombre and low key this year amid troops on the streets and a continuing state of emergency.
The warning may have been France reminding Germany of that fact. Germany acting on the warning may have been Germany indicating that it views France's concerns as legitimate. Although if the threat proves to be an empty one it will have the effect of making France looking a little paranoid and irrational.
That said I immediately decided not to comment on the matter until at least 02:00GMT (03:00 local time). Even now that deadline is past I'm still a little hesitant to press the "Enter" key and tell Germans they can ignore the police's instructions.
02:02 on 1/1/16 (UK date).
Edited at around 12:25 on 1/1/16 (UK date) to add;
I did have a bit of a debate whether it would be better to write this last night whilst I'll was a little bit drunk or write it today when I was tired and a little hungover. I think I made the right choice even if I did manage to conspire to miss out the main bit of the London celebrations.
Perhaps in contrast with the excess of places like Dubai the London celebrations were partnered with UNICEF to highlight the suffering of children - particularly the refugee children from Syria and Iraq. The soundtrack began with dozens of children saying the phrase; "Welcome to London" in various languages.
The game of course was to identify each specific language used. If you could manage that the next challenge would be guess if the person was a native speaker of that language, whether they had any regional accent and whether they were actually using the correct phrase.
After all as I sort of pointed out in the post title the same phrase can mean different things depending on the emphasis you place on specific words.
Also stations in Germany have re-opened without a terror attack. However that doesn't mean that the warning was false. By publicly announcing that they were aware of the plot the security services may simply have forced the terrorists to abandon the attack.
Thursday, 31 December 2015
Wednesday, 30 December 2015
Operation Featherweight: Month 18, Week 1, Day 4.
In my post yesterday I explained how Turkey's plans to invade Syria in support of the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) had been thwarted by the international backlash against Turkey's small scale invasion of Bashika in northern Iraq.
I also explained how with the threat of Turkish invasion lifted the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF/QSD) had been able to advance capturing the Tishan Dam across the Euphrates River. This cuts pretty much the last main supply route between Turkey and Raqqa - ISIL's de facto capital in Syria.
Turkish President/Prime Minister/Emperor Recep Tayyip Erdogan's response to this latest loss by ISIL has been typically furious.
The first thing that Erdogan did was December 11th (11/12/15) he appeared to deploy the Turkish troops that would have been used in the December 16th (16/12/15) invasion of Syria to instead invade the predominately Kurdish province of Mardin in southern Turkey.
In doing this Erdogan seems to be following ISIL's longstanding advice to its supporters that if they cannot travel to Syria or Iraq to fight for ISIL they should carry out attacks on ISIL's behalf within their own countries.
On December 23rd (23/12/15) a bomb exploded on a Turkish passenger jet while it was sitting empty on the tarmac at Istanbul's Sabiha Gokcen airport. One cleaner who had been working on the aircraft was killed while another was injured.
The aircraft in question was being operated by the Turkish budget carrier "Pegasus Airlines." This seems to be a reference to the pan-Arab military alliance led by Saudi Arabia that has been codenamed "Pegasus."
In Greek mythology Pegasus is a warrior horse that can bring lightening and thunder from the skies. He was captured by Bellerophon who used Pegasus to defeat the Chimera - a creature with no dominante species. Among Pegasus' many powers was that wherever he stomped his hooves and spring of water would appear.
The so-called Arab Spring that created ISIL was Saudi Arabia trying to consolidate its power over the region by overthrowing governments and replacing them with puppet regimes. The purpose of the new military alliance is to make the process much easier for the Saudis.
On a visit to Ridyah, Saudi Arabia yesterday (29/12/15) Erdogan formally announced that Turkey was no only joining the Saudi-led alliance but was also forming a specific strategic alliance between the two countries. As such the Pegasus bomb seemed to be a clear Turkish threat that if the world continued to challenge Erdogan's support for ISIL that he and his Saudi friends would fight absolutely everyone.
Of course the bombing was eventually blamed on the Kurds. This was done in order to whip Turkish nationalists into an anti-Kurdish frenzy allowing Erdogan to justify his support for ISIL.
However it was blamed specifically on a group called the Kurdistan Freedom Falcons (TAK). This seemed to be Erdogan expressing his frustration over the end of the US train & equip program that Turkey exploited to support ISIL and the Army of Conquest/Jaish al-Fatah (JAF) coalition. One of the last groups the US trained and equipped before the program was shut down was the Falcons of Mount Zawiya.
On Friday (25/12/15) - Christmas Day - there was a particularly bizarre story in which it was reported that Erdogan had talked a man out of committing suicide by jumping off Istanbul's Bosphorus Bridge.
What actually happened is that the man had been standing on the bridge waiting for the arrival of Erdogan's motorcade which crosses the bridge at the same time every day. When the motorcade arrived Erdogan's security detailed simply grabbed hold of the man and frog-marched him to Erdogan's limousine.
With Erdogan having been humiliated by being forced to cancel his invasion plans this little stunt allowed him to reassert his image as the heroic - almost Messianic - saviour of the Turkish people and the world's Muslims. At that point he may even have been feeling a little jealous of Jesus.
However it also allowed Erdogan to issue a threat to the QSD as they were undertaking their Tishan Dam operation. The message being that if the QSD were to take that fatal next step of crossing the dam/bridge Erdogan wouldn't hesitate to send his security forces to stop them.
The QSD went ahead and liberated the dam anyway.
Although we all knew what its true purpose was Turkey's official explanation for sending 1,200 troops uninvited into northern Iraq was to provide force protection at the Bashika base which is close to the Mosul frontline.
On the date assigned for the Syria invasion - December 16th (16/12/15) - ISIL launched a sustained rocket attack against the Bashika base. This seemed like a deliberate attempt by ISIL to prove Turkey's point in the hope of keeping the Syria invasion plan on track if delayed.
On Monday (28/12/15) ISIL again launched another rocket attack on the Bashika base. On this occasion Turkey almost immediately responded with Turkish Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu - effectively Erdogan's deputy - announcing that the attack proved that Turkey was right to send its troops into Iraq and in response it would end the withdrawal that began on December 13th (13/12/15).
That contributes to a growing sense that Turkey considers its invasion plans as merely postponed rather then cancelled and will continue to press for the go ahead.
This really underlines what has been a long-running problem with Erdogan.
Even as far back as June 2012 when Turkey sent an F-4 Phantom to invade Syrian air-space in the hope the inevitable shooting down would provide an excuse for a Turkish invasion of Syria Erdogan has a habit of doing things that are both stupid and aggressive. This then forces everyone to work extra hard to put pressure on Erdogan to back down.
The US President Obama then comes along, undercuts everybody else and Erdogan goes back to being stupid and aggressive.
It would be nice that in his eighth year as President Obama could finally develop even a hint of situational awareness.
18:25 on 30/12/15 (UK date).
I also explained how with the threat of Turkish invasion lifted the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF/QSD) had been able to advance capturing the Tishan Dam across the Euphrates River. This cuts pretty much the last main supply route between Turkey and Raqqa - ISIL's de facto capital in Syria.
Turkish President/Prime Minister/Emperor Recep Tayyip Erdogan's response to this latest loss by ISIL has been typically furious.
The first thing that Erdogan did was December 11th (11/12/15) he appeared to deploy the Turkish troops that would have been used in the December 16th (16/12/15) invasion of Syria to instead invade the predominately Kurdish province of Mardin in southern Turkey.
In doing this Erdogan seems to be following ISIL's longstanding advice to its supporters that if they cannot travel to Syria or Iraq to fight for ISIL they should carry out attacks on ISIL's behalf within their own countries.
On December 23rd (23/12/15) a bomb exploded on a Turkish passenger jet while it was sitting empty on the tarmac at Istanbul's Sabiha Gokcen airport. One cleaner who had been working on the aircraft was killed while another was injured.
The aircraft in question was being operated by the Turkish budget carrier "Pegasus Airlines." This seems to be a reference to the pan-Arab military alliance led by Saudi Arabia that has been codenamed "Pegasus."
In Greek mythology Pegasus is a warrior horse that can bring lightening and thunder from the skies. He was captured by Bellerophon who used Pegasus to defeat the Chimera - a creature with no dominante species. Among Pegasus' many powers was that wherever he stomped his hooves and spring of water would appear.
The so-called Arab Spring that created ISIL was Saudi Arabia trying to consolidate its power over the region by overthrowing governments and replacing them with puppet regimes. The purpose of the new military alliance is to make the process much easier for the Saudis.
On a visit to Ridyah, Saudi Arabia yesterday (29/12/15) Erdogan formally announced that Turkey was no only joining the Saudi-led alliance but was also forming a specific strategic alliance between the two countries. As such the Pegasus bomb seemed to be a clear Turkish threat that if the world continued to challenge Erdogan's support for ISIL that he and his Saudi friends would fight absolutely everyone.
Of course the bombing was eventually blamed on the Kurds. This was done in order to whip Turkish nationalists into an anti-Kurdish frenzy allowing Erdogan to justify his support for ISIL.
However it was blamed specifically on a group called the Kurdistan Freedom Falcons (TAK). This seemed to be Erdogan expressing his frustration over the end of the US train & equip program that Turkey exploited to support ISIL and the Army of Conquest/Jaish al-Fatah (JAF) coalition. One of the last groups the US trained and equipped before the program was shut down was the Falcons of Mount Zawiya.
On Friday (25/12/15) - Christmas Day - there was a particularly bizarre story in which it was reported that Erdogan had talked a man out of committing suicide by jumping off Istanbul's Bosphorus Bridge.
What actually happened is that the man had been standing on the bridge waiting for the arrival of Erdogan's motorcade which crosses the bridge at the same time every day. When the motorcade arrived Erdogan's security detailed simply grabbed hold of the man and frog-marched him to Erdogan's limousine.
With Erdogan having been humiliated by being forced to cancel his invasion plans this little stunt allowed him to reassert his image as the heroic - almost Messianic - saviour of the Turkish people and the world's Muslims. At that point he may even have been feeling a little jealous of Jesus.
However it also allowed Erdogan to issue a threat to the QSD as they were undertaking their Tishan Dam operation. The message being that if the QSD were to take that fatal next step of crossing the dam/bridge Erdogan wouldn't hesitate to send his security forces to stop them.
The QSD went ahead and liberated the dam anyway.
Although we all knew what its true purpose was Turkey's official explanation for sending 1,200 troops uninvited into northern Iraq was to provide force protection at the Bashika base which is close to the Mosul frontline.
On the date assigned for the Syria invasion - December 16th (16/12/15) - ISIL launched a sustained rocket attack against the Bashika base. This seemed like a deliberate attempt by ISIL to prove Turkey's point in the hope of keeping the Syria invasion plan on track if delayed.
On Monday (28/12/15) ISIL again launched another rocket attack on the Bashika base. On this occasion Turkey almost immediately responded with Turkish Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu - effectively Erdogan's deputy - announcing that the attack proved that Turkey was right to send its troops into Iraq and in response it would end the withdrawal that began on December 13th (13/12/15).
That contributes to a growing sense that Turkey considers its invasion plans as merely postponed rather then cancelled and will continue to press for the go ahead.
This really underlines what has been a long-running problem with Erdogan.
Even as far back as June 2012 when Turkey sent an F-4 Phantom to invade Syrian air-space in the hope the inevitable shooting down would provide an excuse for a Turkish invasion of Syria Erdogan has a habit of doing things that are both stupid and aggressive. This then forces everyone to work extra hard to put pressure on Erdogan to back down.
The US President Obama then comes along, undercuts everybody else and Erdogan goes back to being stupid and aggressive.
It would be nice that in his eighth year as President Obama could finally develop even a hint of situational awareness.
18:25 on 30/12/15 (UK date).
The NYE Terror Threat.
Throughout much of 2014 and 2015 the west and Europe in particular has been under constant and severe threat of terrorist attack by the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) and associated groups. This threat was called into sharp focus by the November 13th (13/11/15) massacres in Paris, France.
Just because we've all taken a few days off to celebrate Christmas does not mean that this threat has suddenly disappeared. In fact it will be with us until ISIL are destroyed.
Tomorrow's (31/12/15) New Years Eve (NYE) celebrations represent a prime target for a mass casualty terror attack. That is because they often involve huge crowds of people gathering out in the open at local landmarks.
Also despite the fact that it is a completely secular celebration with absolutely no religious dimension to it there is something of a misconception amongst the Islamic world that New Years Eve is a Christian festival. ISIL are also likely to accuse it of being Pagan.
I don't bring this up to alarm people or cause them to do anything other then celebrate as the would normally. After all we pay people to worry about this sort of thing and they are certainly aware of the increased threat and taking the appropriate precautions.
As part of doing that job on Saturday (26/12/15) Austria announced that it had received a warning that an attack was planned against NYE celebrations in Vienna. What is curious about this is that Austria did not reveal who had provided the intelligence leading to this warning describing it as simply coming from "a friendly nation."
This would suggest that it didn't come from one of Austria's formal NATO allies. As the birthplace of Adolf Hitler Austria along with Germany is very keen to let it be known that it is friends with Israel and this is often how Israeli intelligence is described.
However if the intelligence had been provided by Russia as part of its fight against ISIL it would be a big step for Austria to describe Russia as a friend. After all the US is currently refusing to read intelligence on ISIL provided by Russia.
Announcing to a group of spies that you know a secret but you're not going to tell them what it is is probably one of the worst things you can do. As a result over the past couple of days various other nations have been issuing their own security warnings in the hope of finding the source for Austria's warning.
Yesterday (29/12/15) authorities in Belgium announced that they'd arrested two men who were plotting an attack against NYE crowds in Brussels' Grand Place square.
In the past Belgium has been an enthusiastic supporter of ISIL not only sending many of its Muslims citizens to fight for the group in Syria and Iraq but also allowing them to return home. The Charlie Hebdo attacks of January 2015 along with the thwarted August 21st (21/8/15) attack aboard a Thalys train and the Paris Massacres all seem to have been organised in Belgium to some extent.
Therefore while I don't doubt there was genuine criminal intent with no weapons being found I think that this latest Belgian terror plot was more at the aspirational stage rather then a plan that was ready to go into action. Apart from shutting down an active terror cell the timing of the arrests seem to be an enquiry as to whether this was the plot the Austrians were referring to.
Later yesterday a shopping mall near the city of Basel in Switzerland had to be evacuated after a bomb threat that later turned out to be a hoax. Again this seemed to be an enquiry as to the nature of the Austrian intelligence. However it also seemed to be a reference to an incident that happened at a shopping mall in the Bromley area of South London, UK on Saturday (26/12/15).
Essentially what happened is that two men got into a knife fight within the shopping mall. This caused the police to be called and the mall evacuated. Bromley is the next area London borough over from where I live in Croydon. In fact close to Crystal Palace Park there is a one-way road system that forces you to drive from Croydon into Southwark, into Bromley and back into Croydon all within 100 metre/yards or so.
Knowing the area as I do I'm aware that this type of incident isn't actually that uncommon. In fact if it hadn't occurred on what was a very slow news day I doubt it would have made the frontpage of the local newspaper let alone the national news. As such I almost immediately disregarded it as irrelevant.
Today Turkey has announced that it has arrested two men it claims were plotting suicide bomb attacks against NYE crowds in Ankara.
The last month has been spent trying to prevent Turkey invading Syria in support of ISIL and there are still the unresolved questions over Turkey's involvement in the October 31st (31/10/15) bombing of Kogalymavia flight 7K9268 over Egypt and the Paris Massacres. Therefore Turkey is keen to convince Europe that it is its ally against ISIL rather than ISIL's ally against Europe by showing that it too is threatened by ISIL.
Also Turkey definitely did shoot down an Russian Su-24 jet on November 24th (24/11/15) and is widely suspected of downing flight 7K9268. Therefore it would be very interested to know if Europe is now considering Russia to be "a friendly nation."
The US also seems to be getting in on the act. Yesterday its controversial Justice Department announced that it had successfully prosecuted a man for attacking an Islamic centre and defacing copies of the Qu'ran in Missouri back in 2011. This seemed to be a reference to events on the French island of Corsica over the weekend.
Essentially what happened is that on Christmas Eve (24/12/15) a group of Muslim Arab youths attacked firefighters and the police officers guarding them while they tackled a blaze that appears to have been set on purpose in order to ambush first responders.
This prompted a lot of local anger and on Christmas Day (25/12/15) a group of around 300 local residents ran riot through the predominately Arab housing estate where the attack took place. During the course of this riot an Islamic centre was attacked and copies of the Qu'ran were destroyed.
There is obviously no excusing this. However over the past year ISIL - in the name of Islam - have been almost attacking Europeans - particularly in France. For example I think quite a few people considered the Paris Massacres to be somewhat offensive. It is a fact of life that there is only so long you can be perceived to be poking someone in the eye before eventually they turn round and punch you in the face.
To my mind this rise in Islamaphobia and the backlash against Muslims who have absolutely nothing to do with ISIL is yet another reason why we need to destroy ISIL and associated groups sooner rather then later.
By highlighting how it is cracking down on Islamaphobic hate crime the US instead seems to be lecturing France that it shouldn't be concerned about ISIL but instead should focus on the people who are outraged by what ISIL are doing.
Given that US President Obama's response to the Paris Massacres was to blow off America's oldest ally in order to effectively go on holiday to Turkey and Malaysia I don't think the US is in much of a position to lecture anybody on anything.
17:00 on 30/12/15 (UK date).
Just because we've all taken a few days off to celebrate Christmas does not mean that this threat has suddenly disappeared. In fact it will be with us until ISIL are destroyed.
Tomorrow's (31/12/15) New Years Eve (NYE) celebrations represent a prime target for a mass casualty terror attack. That is because they often involve huge crowds of people gathering out in the open at local landmarks.
Also despite the fact that it is a completely secular celebration with absolutely no religious dimension to it there is something of a misconception amongst the Islamic world that New Years Eve is a Christian festival. ISIL are also likely to accuse it of being Pagan.
I don't bring this up to alarm people or cause them to do anything other then celebrate as the would normally. After all we pay people to worry about this sort of thing and they are certainly aware of the increased threat and taking the appropriate precautions.
As part of doing that job on Saturday (26/12/15) Austria announced that it had received a warning that an attack was planned against NYE celebrations in Vienna. What is curious about this is that Austria did not reveal who had provided the intelligence leading to this warning describing it as simply coming from "a friendly nation."
This would suggest that it didn't come from one of Austria's formal NATO allies. As the birthplace of Adolf Hitler Austria along with Germany is very keen to let it be known that it is friends with Israel and this is often how Israeli intelligence is described.
However if the intelligence had been provided by Russia as part of its fight against ISIL it would be a big step for Austria to describe Russia as a friend. After all the US is currently refusing to read intelligence on ISIL provided by Russia.
Announcing to a group of spies that you know a secret but you're not going to tell them what it is is probably one of the worst things you can do. As a result over the past couple of days various other nations have been issuing their own security warnings in the hope of finding the source for Austria's warning.
Yesterday (29/12/15) authorities in Belgium announced that they'd arrested two men who were plotting an attack against NYE crowds in Brussels' Grand Place square.
In the past Belgium has been an enthusiastic supporter of ISIL not only sending many of its Muslims citizens to fight for the group in Syria and Iraq but also allowing them to return home. The Charlie Hebdo attacks of January 2015 along with the thwarted August 21st (21/8/15) attack aboard a Thalys train and the Paris Massacres all seem to have been organised in Belgium to some extent.
Therefore while I don't doubt there was genuine criminal intent with no weapons being found I think that this latest Belgian terror plot was more at the aspirational stage rather then a plan that was ready to go into action. Apart from shutting down an active terror cell the timing of the arrests seem to be an enquiry as to whether this was the plot the Austrians were referring to.
Later yesterday a shopping mall near the city of Basel in Switzerland had to be evacuated after a bomb threat that later turned out to be a hoax. Again this seemed to be an enquiry as to the nature of the Austrian intelligence. However it also seemed to be a reference to an incident that happened at a shopping mall in the Bromley area of South London, UK on Saturday (26/12/15).
Essentially what happened is that two men got into a knife fight within the shopping mall. This caused the police to be called and the mall evacuated. Bromley is the next area London borough over from where I live in Croydon. In fact close to Crystal Palace Park there is a one-way road system that forces you to drive from Croydon into Southwark, into Bromley and back into Croydon all within 100 metre/yards or so.
Knowing the area as I do I'm aware that this type of incident isn't actually that uncommon. In fact if it hadn't occurred on what was a very slow news day I doubt it would have made the frontpage of the local newspaper let alone the national news. As such I almost immediately disregarded it as irrelevant.
Today Turkey has announced that it has arrested two men it claims were plotting suicide bomb attacks against NYE crowds in Ankara.
The last month has been spent trying to prevent Turkey invading Syria in support of ISIL and there are still the unresolved questions over Turkey's involvement in the October 31st (31/10/15) bombing of Kogalymavia flight 7K9268 over Egypt and the Paris Massacres. Therefore Turkey is keen to convince Europe that it is its ally against ISIL rather than ISIL's ally against Europe by showing that it too is threatened by ISIL.
Also Turkey definitely did shoot down an Russian Su-24 jet on November 24th (24/11/15) and is widely suspected of downing flight 7K9268. Therefore it would be very interested to know if Europe is now considering Russia to be "a friendly nation."
The US also seems to be getting in on the act. Yesterday its controversial Justice Department announced that it had successfully prosecuted a man for attacking an Islamic centre and defacing copies of the Qu'ran in Missouri back in 2011. This seemed to be a reference to events on the French island of Corsica over the weekend.
Essentially what happened is that on Christmas Eve (24/12/15) a group of Muslim Arab youths attacked firefighters and the police officers guarding them while they tackled a blaze that appears to have been set on purpose in order to ambush first responders.
This prompted a lot of local anger and on Christmas Day (25/12/15) a group of around 300 local residents ran riot through the predominately Arab housing estate where the attack took place. During the course of this riot an Islamic centre was attacked and copies of the Qu'ran were destroyed.
There is obviously no excusing this. However over the past year ISIL - in the name of Islam - have been almost attacking Europeans - particularly in France. For example I think quite a few people considered the Paris Massacres to be somewhat offensive. It is a fact of life that there is only so long you can be perceived to be poking someone in the eye before eventually they turn round and punch you in the face.
To my mind this rise in Islamaphobia and the backlash against Muslims who have absolutely nothing to do with ISIL is yet another reason why we need to destroy ISIL and associated groups sooner rather then later.
By highlighting how it is cracking down on Islamaphobic hate crime the US instead seems to be lecturing France that it shouldn't be concerned about ISIL but instead should focus on the people who are outraged by what ISIL are doing.
Given that US President Obama's response to the Paris Massacres was to blow off America's oldest ally in order to effectively go on holiday to Turkey and Malaysia I don't think the US is in much of a position to lecture anybody on anything.
17:00 on 30/12/15 (UK date).
Tuesday, 29 December 2015
Operation Featherweight: Month 18, Week 1, Day 3.
Due to the COP21 climate change summit it has been three weeks since my last dedicated update on the fight against the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) and associated groups in Iraq and Syria. At that time the big concern was over Turkish plans to invade Syria.
These concerns date back to the summer of 2015 and centre on the town of Marea. This sits in Aleppo Province some 30km (18 miles) north of Aleppo City. It also sits 20km (12 miles) south of Syria's border with Turkey. Up until early August it was controlled by the Army of Conquest/Jaish al-Fatah (JAF) Islamist group.
Then on August 9th (9/8/15) the Turkish President/Prime Minister/Emperor Recep Tayyip Erdogan ordered the two largest factions in JAF - the Islamic Movement of the Freemen of the Levant/Harakat Ahrar ash-Sham al-Islamiyya (FML) and the Al Qaeda affiliate the Al Nusra Front (ANF) - to abandon Marea. This allowed ISIL to seize control of the town.
Henceforth the town became known as "Erdogan's Pocket."
Turkey's hope was that the prospect of ISIL advancing so close to the Turkish border would provide an excuse for Turkey to invade a large section of northern Syria stretching from the town of Jarablus on the banks of the Euphrates River to the Latakia Mountains which sit on the shores of the Mediterranean Sea.
Rather than fighting ISIL the purpose of this Turkish invasion would be to clear the anti-ISIL Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF/QSD) from Aleppo and Idlib Provinces. It would then re-establish ISIL's supply lines through Turkey by by-passing the roughly 800km^2 (480 miles^2) buffer-zone that the QSD has established between ISIL and Turkey across the north-east of Syria.
On September 30th (30/9/15) Russia entered the fight in Syria against ISIL and associated groups. This substantially disrupted Turkey's invasion plans.
In the first instance Russia's involvement has dramatically shifted the momentum of the conflict against ISIL and the JAF.
On December 8th (8/12/15) ISIL and JAF fighters in the city of Homs - 150km (90 miles) north of the Syrian capital Damascus and 180km (110 miles) south of Aleppo City - finally surrendered to Syrian government forces. As part of their surrender they were allowed to leave along with their families to Aleppo Province.
The more moderate groups were allowed to remain in the city on condition that they stop attacking civilians and Syrian government forces. They appear to have violated that agreement yesterday (28/12/15) with twin car bombings in the city which killed 32.
Also yesterday ISIL and JAF chose to surrender the towns of Foua and Kafraya and the city Zabadani which all sit between Damascus and the border with Lebanon. You may remember that this was originally scheduled to take place in late-September. Unfortunately ISIL and JAF took some ill-advised American comments on the imminent collapse of the Syrian government a little too literally and continued to fight on. This hastened Russia's involvement.
As with in Homs City ISIL and JAF fighters in Foua and Kafraya and Zabadani have been allowed to take their families and leave for Aleppo Province. More moderate groups have been allowed to remain on condition that they stop attacking civilians and Syrian government forces.
On December 26th (26/12/15) ISIL and JAF were supposed to surrender control of the Yarmouk camp for Palestinian refugees in the suburbs of Damascus under a similar agreement to Homs City, Foua and Kafraya and Zabadani.
However on December 25th (25/12/15) a targeted Russian air-strike killed Zahran Alloush - the leader of the Army of Islam/Jaish al-Islam (JAI) which is a small but particularly nasty faction within the JAF coalition which is very active around Damascus.
It was JAI who on July 1st (1/7/15) released a 20 minute ISIL-style propaganda video in which 18 ISIL fighters were beheaded. JAI's reason for doing this was that it considered ISIL far too moderate and not brutal enough in its attempts to ethnically cleanse the Levant region.
Surrendering Yarmouk so soon after the death of Alloush would seem too much like complete defeat for JAI so they have decided to fight on. Obviously this continuation of fighting prevents the evacuation of wounded civilians from Yarmouk and the delivery of humanitarian aid to the camp.
This run of defeats means that ISIL's occupation of Marea is now much less of a concern. It seems likely that Syrian government will soon be able to fully liberate Aleppo City and then move up to liberate Marea.
Failing that Russia has been looking at working with the Kurdish People's Protection Units (YPG) who based in what is termed the Afrin Canton north-west of Aleppo City to move east to liberate Marea and link up with the QSD coalition east of the Euphrates.
Turkey's shooting down of a Russian Su-24 over the Latakia Mountains on November 24th (24/11/15) was intended to reverse ISIL and JAF's run of defeats by getting the international community to prevent further Russian air-strikes. Fortunately this attempt failed.
Russia's involvement also of course presents the much more immediate problem to Turkey that if it were to launch an invasion of Syria Russian aircraft would simply destroy the invasion force.
So with Turkey's window for action closing they set a provisional date of December 16th (16/12/15) for this invasion to take place.
In preparation Turkey decided to test the diplomatic waters by sending a 1,200 strong force into northern Iraq without the permission of the Iraqi government on December 4th (4/12/15). They then set up camp near the town of Bashika
Fortunately this aggressive Turkish move prompted something of a furious diplomatic backlash. Numerous nations voiced their opposition through various hoax security threats to passenger aircraft. The issue was even raised at the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) although the US blocked a resolution formally condemning Turkey's actions.
However this didn't stop Russia from flying strategic bombers low and aggressively over the Bashika camp to send the message that they could bomb the Turkish troops out of Iraq if they wished to. This was followed by the US 'accidentally' bombing a Syrian government camp in north-east Syria. That could well have been interpreted as the US sending Russia the message that if it wanted to solve the Bashika problem the US wouldn't complain too loudly.
It seems that by December 13th (13/12/15) Turkey finally got the message that it's planned invasion of Syria would not be tolerated and withdrew the bulk - roughly 1000 - of it's troops from Iraq.
It was a full six days after this on December 19th (19/12/15) that US President Barack Obama finally felt confident enough to criticise Turkey's actions and call for the withdrawal of Turkish troops from Iraq.
No-one seemed more upset at the cancellation of the Turkish invasion then ISIL themselves. On the provisional invasion date (16/12/15) ISIL launched a sustained rocket attack on the Bashika camp injuring at least 4 Turkish troops. Turkey's excuse for sending so many troops to Bashika was to provide force protection for Turkish trainers already at the base. A significant attack on the base would seem to strengthen that claim.
With the threat of Turkish invasion lifted the QSD have been able to cross the Euphrates and push west towards ISIL positions around Jarablus.
Following an operation that began on December 23rd (23/12/15) by December 26th (26/12/15) the QSD had succeeded in clearing a roughly 200km^2 (120 mile^2) area made up of some 20 farms, 8 villages and numerous bridges between the town of Sarrin and the Tishan dam including the dam itself.
The Tishan Dam sits around 30km (18 miles) south-west of the town of Manbij and around 90km (55 miles) north-west of Raqqa - ISIL's de facto capital in Syria. With the exception of the bridge at the town of Al Tabqah which sits some 55km (30 miles) to the south it represents that last main river crossing linking Raqqa with ISIL positions across the north-west of Syria including Jarablus and Marea.
As a result it is a huge strategic victory for the QSD which will certainly hasten ISIL's defeat by cutting their remaining supply lines with Turkey.
Erdogan's response to this latest defeat for ISIL has been typically furious.
For example on December 25th (25/12/15) in a buttock-clenchingly awful attempt to portray himself as the heroic saviour of all mankind Erdogan was keen to send the message that he is more then prepared to send his security forces to stop people taking that fatal next step over the river.
However as I'm still finding my feet after the festive break I will be back to add more detail on that tomorrow.
18:05 on 29/12/15 (UK date).
These concerns date back to the summer of 2015 and centre on the town of Marea. This sits in Aleppo Province some 30km (18 miles) north of Aleppo City. It also sits 20km (12 miles) south of Syria's border with Turkey. Up until early August it was controlled by the Army of Conquest/Jaish al-Fatah (JAF) Islamist group.
Then on August 9th (9/8/15) the Turkish President/Prime Minister/Emperor Recep Tayyip Erdogan ordered the two largest factions in JAF - the Islamic Movement of the Freemen of the Levant/Harakat Ahrar ash-Sham al-Islamiyya (FML) and the Al Qaeda affiliate the Al Nusra Front (ANF) - to abandon Marea. This allowed ISIL to seize control of the town.
Henceforth the town became known as "Erdogan's Pocket."
Turkey's hope was that the prospect of ISIL advancing so close to the Turkish border would provide an excuse for Turkey to invade a large section of northern Syria stretching from the town of Jarablus on the banks of the Euphrates River to the Latakia Mountains which sit on the shores of the Mediterranean Sea.
Rather than fighting ISIL the purpose of this Turkish invasion would be to clear the anti-ISIL Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF/QSD) from Aleppo and Idlib Provinces. It would then re-establish ISIL's supply lines through Turkey by by-passing the roughly 800km^2 (480 miles^2) buffer-zone that the QSD has established between ISIL and Turkey across the north-east of Syria.
On September 30th (30/9/15) Russia entered the fight in Syria against ISIL and associated groups. This substantially disrupted Turkey's invasion plans.
In the first instance Russia's involvement has dramatically shifted the momentum of the conflict against ISIL and the JAF.
On December 8th (8/12/15) ISIL and JAF fighters in the city of Homs - 150km (90 miles) north of the Syrian capital Damascus and 180km (110 miles) south of Aleppo City - finally surrendered to Syrian government forces. As part of their surrender they were allowed to leave along with their families to Aleppo Province.
The more moderate groups were allowed to remain in the city on condition that they stop attacking civilians and Syrian government forces. They appear to have violated that agreement yesterday (28/12/15) with twin car bombings in the city which killed 32.
Also yesterday ISIL and JAF chose to surrender the towns of Foua and Kafraya and the city Zabadani which all sit between Damascus and the border with Lebanon. You may remember that this was originally scheduled to take place in late-September. Unfortunately ISIL and JAF took some ill-advised American comments on the imminent collapse of the Syrian government a little too literally and continued to fight on. This hastened Russia's involvement.
As with in Homs City ISIL and JAF fighters in Foua and Kafraya and Zabadani have been allowed to take their families and leave for Aleppo Province. More moderate groups have been allowed to remain on condition that they stop attacking civilians and Syrian government forces.
On December 26th (26/12/15) ISIL and JAF were supposed to surrender control of the Yarmouk camp for Palestinian refugees in the suburbs of Damascus under a similar agreement to Homs City, Foua and Kafraya and Zabadani.
However on December 25th (25/12/15) a targeted Russian air-strike killed Zahran Alloush - the leader of the Army of Islam/Jaish al-Islam (JAI) which is a small but particularly nasty faction within the JAF coalition which is very active around Damascus.
It was JAI who on July 1st (1/7/15) released a 20 minute ISIL-style propaganda video in which 18 ISIL fighters were beheaded. JAI's reason for doing this was that it considered ISIL far too moderate and not brutal enough in its attempts to ethnically cleanse the Levant region.
Surrendering Yarmouk so soon after the death of Alloush would seem too much like complete defeat for JAI so they have decided to fight on. Obviously this continuation of fighting prevents the evacuation of wounded civilians from Yarmouk and the delivery of humanitarian aid to the camp.
This run of defeats means that ISIL's occupation of Marea is now much less of a concern. It seems likely that Syrian government will soon be able to fully liberate Aleppo City and then move up to liberate Marea.
Failing that Russia has been looking at working with the Kurdish People's Protection Units (YPG) who based in what is termed the Afrin Canton north-west of Aleppo City to move east to liberate Marea and link up with the QSD coalition east of the Euphrates.
Turkey's shooting down of a Russian Su-24 over the Latakia Mountains on November 24th (24/11/15) was intended to reverse ISIL and JAF's run of defeats by getting the international community to prevent further Russian air-strikes. Fortunately this attempt failed.
Russia's involvement also of course presents the much more immediate problem to Turkey that if it were to launch an invasion of Syria Russian aircraft would simply destroy the invasion force.
So with Turkey's window for action closing they set a provisional date of December 16th (16/12/15) for this invasion to take place.
In preparation Turkey decided to test the diplomatic waters by sending a 1,200 strong force into northern Iraq without the permission of the Iraqi government on December 4th (4/12/15). They then set up camp near the town of Bashika
Fortunately this aggressive Turkish move prompted something of a furious diplomatic backlash. Numerous nations voiced their opposition through various hoax security threats to passenger aircraft. The issue was even raised at the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) although the US blocked a resolution formally condemning Turkey's actions.
However this didn't stop Russia from flying strategic bombers low and aggressively over the Bashika camp to send the message that they could bomb the Turkish troops out of Iraq if they wished to. This was followed by the US 'accidentally' bombing a Syrian government camp in north-east Syria. That could well have been interpreted as the US sending Russia the message that if it wanted to solve the Bashika problem the US wouldn't complain too loudly.
It seems that by December 13th (13/12/15) Turkey finally got the message that it's planned invasion of Syria would not be tolerated and withdrew the bulk - roughly 1000 - of it's troops from Iraq.
It was a full six days after this on December 19th (19/12/15) that US President Barack Obama finally felt confident enough to criticise Turkey's actions and call for the withdrawal of Turkish troops from Iraq.
No-one seemed more upset at the cancellation of the Turkish invasion then ISIL themselves. On the provisional invasion date (16/12/15) ISIL launched a sustained rocket attack on the Bashika camp injuring at least 4 Turkish troops. Turkey's excuse for sending so many troops to Bashika was to provide force protection for Turkish trainers already at the base. A significant attack on the base would seem to strengthen that claim.
With the threat of Turkish invasion lifted the QSD have been able to cross the Euphrates and push west towards ISIL positions around Jarablus.
Following an operation that began on December 23rd (23/12/15) by December 26th (26/12/15) the QSD had succeeded in clearing a roughly 200km^2 (120 mile^2) area made up of some 20 farms, 8 villages and numerous bridges between the town of Sarrin and the Tishan dam including the dam itself.
The Tishan Dam sits around 30km (18 miles) south-west of the town of Manbij and around 90km (55 miles) north-west of Raqqa - ISIL's de facto capital in Syria. With the exception of the bridge at the town of Al Tabqah which sits some 55km (30 miles) to the south it represents that last main river crossing linking Raqqa with ISIL positions across the north-west of Syria including Jarablus and Marea.
As a result it is a huge strategic victory for the QSD which will certainly hasten ISIL's defeat by cutting their remaining supply lines with Turkey.
Erdogan's response to this latest defeat for ISIL has been typically furious.
For example on December 25th (25/12/15) in a buttock-clenchingly awful attempt to portray himself as the heroic saviour of all mankind Erdogan was keen to send the message that he is more then prepared to send his security forces to stop people taking that fatal next step over the river.
However as I'm still finding my feet after the festive break I will be back to add more detail on that tomorrow.
18:05 on 29/12/15 (UK date).
Monday, 28 December 2015
COP21 Terrorism Update #14.
On December 12th (12/12/15) the 21st Conference of Parties (COP21) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) ended in Paris, France.
Unfortunately the draft agreement it produced for consideration by national governments was so terrible I've got a nasty feeling that I'm going to be using this title designation right up until the COP22 Summit in Morocco at the end of 2016.
One of the main problems with the draft agreement produced in Paris is that it sets in stone what is known as the principle of binary differentiation for all eternity.
This means that under the agreement only the 38 nations listed in Annex I of the Kyoto Protocol (KP) are obligated to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions (ghg). Nations not included in that annex such as India and China are free to grow their ghg emissions as much as they please.
Despite all the claims at COP21 that nations would reduce their emissions even if they weren't obligated to - US President Obama's claim that he'd received such a guarantee from China for example - we got a clear indication of how China intends to proceed under the Paris draft.
On December 23rd (23/12/15) China announced that it was cutting the price of electricity produced by ghg emitting fossil fuels. They actually went so far as to claim that this move would reduce ghg emissions. However I'm not sure how making electricity produced by fossil fuels is going to discourage people from using more of it.
The comparative cost of green, renewable energy versus energy produced by fossil fuels has long been cited as a reason why it is economically impossible to cut ghg emissions. However this is rather a deceptive argument because fossil fuels aren't actually that cheap. What keeps the price down for the end user is vast government subsidies - USD500bn in 2011 alone.
Once you strip out these subsidies and consumers are left paying the true price the cost gap between fossil fuels and renewables isn't so large. In some cases the renewable sources actually work out cheaper.
Aside from the effort to draw up a new global agreement one of the main focus' in the run-up to COP21 has been to get governments to end these fossil fuel subsidies. By announcing that it is increasing its subsidies China is clearly signally that it has been going in the exact opposite direction.
Since COP21 a large part of the focus has been on Saudi Arabian led attempts to intimidate developing nations - particularly in East/Central Africa - to sign up to an agreement that will kill off all future attempts to combat climate change.
As such there has been renewed unrest in nations such as Burundi, Ethiopia, and the Central African Republic (CAR) alongside plenty of international discussion such as the Air France passenger jet from Mauritius to France that had to be diverted to Kenya amid a bomb hoax on December 20th (20/12/15).
Last Wednesday (23/12/15) the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) which for December is under the Presidency of the United States was forced to sit through a presentation by UN staffers on the effects of climate change on food security in East Africa.
The prospects are looking particularly grim with Ethiopia set for it's worst drought in 50 years - far worse then the drought which caused the 1984 famine that prompted then Band Aid single "Do They Know It's Christmas" which is now synonymous with Christmas in the UK. Already in Ethiopia some 350,000 children are classed as severely malnourished while the man-made famine in Yemen more then 530,000 children are severely malnourished.
On December 24th (24/12/15) Saudi Arabia responded to this apparent pressure from the UNSC with a fire at a maternity hospital in the southern city of Jazan which killed 24 and injured 123. Jazan sits right on Saudi Arabia's border with Yemen so this was a clear reference to Saudi Arabia's attempts to secure control of Yemen to use it as a launchpad against nations across East/Central Africa.
The fact that is was a maternity hospital and that many of the victims were infants in their cribs was a reference to a part of the Christmas story known as; "The Massacre of the Innocents."
Although we can dispute whether Jesus Christ is the son of God or not certainly at the time of his birth the middle-east region was under the control of King Herod the Great. Rather like Saudi Arabia's ruling al-Saud family Herod became King by doing a deal with the Roman Empire to keep the Jews in line in return for his fiefdom.
The story goes that upon being told that the new King of Kings had been born in Bethlehem Herod became intensely jealous and ordered all the baby boys born in Bethlehem during that month. Having been warned of this Jesus and his family were forced to flee as refugees to Egypt. There is some debate as to whether the Massacre of the Innocents actually happened but King Herod was that vicious and violent you certainly wouldn't put it past him.
Therefore Saudi Arabia's recreation of the Massacre of the Innocents in Jazan was a clear threat that it would continue to use terrorism to prevent the al-Saud's rule being usurped.
What made Saudi Arabia's threat seem all the more sinister is that the following day (25/12/15) the UK Queen delivered her traditional Christmas Day speech to the nation and the Commonwealth including nations such as Ethiopia, Kenya and Rwanda.
Speaking about the refugee crisis that has gripped Europe this year the Queen reminded us that shortly after his birth Jesus himself had been forced to seek refuge. This was an oblique reference to the Massacre of the Innocents.
Also that day the Archbishop of Canterbury - the second in command of the Protestant Christian Church of England - gave his Christmas Day sermon. His reference to the Massacre of the Innocents was much more explicit with the Archbishop comparing the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) to a modern day King Herod.
The Queen's speech is of course pre-recorded and although he delivers it live I don't think the Archbishop of Canterbury simply knocks out his sermon the morning he delivers it.
Therefore through the Jazan fire Saudi Arabia was not only trying to sending the message that its terror campaign will continue it was also trying to send the message that the UK Commonwealth couldn't protect its members because Saudi Arabia is so powerful it had advance knowledge of both the UK Queen's and the Archbishop of Canterbury's Christmas messages.
I should point out then that although it is considered bad manners to report on the Queen's speech before it is broadcast it is far from a state secret. In fact the Monarchy doesn't actually produce the broadcast itself instead working with the UK's main news broadcasters on a rotating basis. This year it was Independent Television News (ITN).
As always when media-types involved there is always quite a bit of gossip. As a commercial broadcaster ITN doesn't have quite the same reverence for the Monarchy as the BBC is run under a Royal Charter and is part of the European Broadcasting Union (EBU) news pool. Plus all journalists in the UK get a preview copy of the speech at least a day in advance.
Therefore getting advance knowledge of either the UK Queen's or the Archbishop of Canterbury's Christmas messages is far from the intelligence coup that Saudi Arabia would like you to believe.
In response to the Jazan fire on Christmas morning (25/12/15) there was a fire at the birthplace of former US President Bill Clinton which is now a protected historical site in Hope, Arkansas. This was quickly confirmed as an act of arson which allowed the US to signal that the Jazan fire was also an arson and therefore a threat.
One of the main issues raised during recent discussions is that the US has become so detached from reality that it is unable to participate. Hence the UN feeling the need to give them a special briefing.
"Hope" was of course the big election campaign slogan of current US President Barack Obama while his first Secretary of State - dealing with foreign affairs - was Bill Clinton's wife Hillary. Hillary Clinton is now all but confirmed as the Democrat's 2016 Presidential Candidate and her unconventional running-mate Donald Trump is working hard to make sure she wins.
Alongside the arson the house was also daubed with some quite childish graffiti. For example the was a large "XX" which could well be a reference to the female chromosomal pairing. Hillary Clinton's seemingly only qualification to be President is that she is a woman.
There was also text-speak such as "55" which means "Ha Ha" and emoji such as the "Razz" symbol of a smiley face sticking its tongue out in mockery.
That could well be a reference to the fact that while the World is facing one of the greatest threats to its safety and stability since the second world war Obama and Hillary seem intent to continue behaving like sulky teenagers.
The biggest contribution to the climate debate over recent days though seems to have come from the climate itself.
As I've mentioned before the northern hemisphere is experiencing unseasonably warm, spring-like weather.
In the US this has caused cold weather to move further south causing intense snow storms over the north-west. This is meeting warmer weather that has been moving up from the Atlantic. Where the two weather systems have met they are producing violent storms, tornadoes and flooding.
In South America this warm Atlantic weather is causing violent storms around the border areas between Brazil, Uruguay, Paraguay and Argentina. This has produced some of the worst flooding in 15 years.
At the other side of the Atlantic this warming weather has brought violent storms and heavy rainfall to the Republic of Ireland and the UK.
On Christmas Eve (24/12/15) the appropriately named "Storm Eva" knocked out power to 6000 households in Ireland. By the time it reached the UK the following day (25/12/15) it caused widespread flooding that over-topped flood defences in large sections of the country. This included the Cumbria region which was previously flooded just two weeks ago during "Storm Desmond."
This of course was all entirely predictable amongst people who have accepted that global warming is manmade and it is causing the climate to change.
However people who refuse to accept the realities of climate change will instead try to blame it all on the "El Nino" weather phenomenon. This is really a redundant argument.
For reasons we don't really understand sea temperatures in the central/eastern Pacific Ocean go through a cycle from a warm peak to a cold trough and back again. El Nino describes the peak of this warming cycle and is defined by a three month period where sea temperatures are 0.5C above average. Sea temperatures are currently four times greater then the 0.5C El Nino rise at 2C and have been for quite some time.
Therefore the El Nino argument seems to be that this extreme weather is not being caused by global warming. Instead it is being caused by the globe being warmer than it should be.
18:05 on 28/12/15 (UK date).
Unfortunately the draft agreement it produced for consideration by national governments was so terrible I've got a nasty feeling that I'm going to be using this title designation right up until the COP22 Summit in Morocco at the end of 2016.
One of the main problems with the draft agreement produced in Paris is that it sets in stone what is known as the principle of binary differentiation for all eternity.
This means that under the agreement only the 38 nations listed in Annex I of the Kyoto Protocol (KP) are obligated to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions (ghg). Nations not included in that annex such as India and China are free to grow their ghg emissions as much as they please.
Despite all the claims at COP21 that nations would reduce their emissions even if they weren't obligated to - US President Obama's claim that he'd received such a guarantee from China for example - we got a clear indication of how China intends to proceed under the Paris draft.
On December 23rd (23/12/15) China announced that it was cutting the price of electricity produced by ghg emitting fossil fuels. They actually went so far as to claim that this move would reduce ghg emissions. However I'm not sure how making electricity produced by fossil fuels is going to discourage people from using more of it.
The comparative cost of green, renewable energy versus energy produced by fossil fuels has long been cited as a reason why it is economically impossible to cut ghg emissions. However this is rather a deceptive argument because fossil fuels aren't actually that cheap. What keeps the price down for the end user is vast government subsidies - USD500bn in 2011 alone.
Once you strip out these subsidies and consumers are left paying the true price the cost gap between fossil fuels and renewables isn't so large. In some cases the renewable sources actually work out cheaper.
Aside from the effort to draw up a new global agreement one of the main focus' in the run-up to COP21 has been to get governments to end these fossil fuel subsidies. By announcing that it is increasing its subsidies China is clearly signally that it has been going in the exact opposite direction.
Since COP21 a large part of the focus has been on Saudi Arabian led attempts to intimidate developing nations - particularly in East/Central Africa - to sign up to an agreement that will kill off all future attempts to combat climate change.
As such there has been renewed unrest in nations such as Burundi, Ethiopia, and the Central African Republic (CAR) alongside plenty of international discussion such as the Air France passenger jet from Mauritius to France that had to be diverted to Kenya amid a bomb hoax on December 20th (20/12/15).
Last Wednesday (23/12/15) the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) which for December is under the Presidency of the United States was forced to sit through a presentation by UN staffers on the effects of climate change on food security in East Africa.
The prospects are looking particularly grim with Ethiopia set for it's worst drought in 50 years - far worse then the drought which caused the 1984 famine that prompted then Band Aid single "Do They Know It's Christmas" which is now synonymous with Christmas in the UK. Already in Ethiopia some 350,000 children are classed as severely malnourished while the man-made famine in Yemen more then 530,000 children are severely malnourished.
On December 24th (24/12/15) Saudi Arabia responded to this apparent pressure from the UNSC with a fire at a maternity hospital in the southern city of Jazan which killed 24 and injured 123. Jazan sits right on Saudi Arabia's border with Yemen so this was a clear reference to Saudi Arabia's attempts to secure control of Yemen to use it as a launchpad against nations across East/Central Africa.
The fact that is was a maternity hospital and that many of the victims were infants in their cribs was a reference to a part of the Christmas story known as; "The Massacre of the Innocents."
Although we can dispute whether Jesus Christ is the son of God or not certainly at the time of his birth the middle-east region was under the control of King Herod the Great. Rather like Saudi Arabia's ruling al-Saud family Herod became King by doing a deal with the Roman Empire to keep the Jews in line in return for his fiefdom.
The story goes that upon being told that the new King of Kings had been born in Bethlehem Herod became intensely jealous and ordered all the baby boys born in Bethlehem during that month. Having been warned of this Jesus and his family were forced to flee as refugees to Egypt. There is some debate as to whether the Massacre of the Innocents actually happened but King Herod was that vicious and violent you certainly wouldn't put it past him.
Therefore Saudi Arabia's recreation of the Massacre of the Innocents in Jazan was a clear threat that it would continue to use terrorism to prevent the al-Saud's rule being usurped.
What made Saudi Arabia's threat seem all the more sinister is that the following day (25/12/15) the UK Queen delivered her traditional Christmas Day speech to the nation and the Commonwealth including nations such as Ethiopia, Kenya and Rwanda.
Speaking about the refugee crisis that has gripped Europe this year the Queen reminded us that shortly after his birth Jesus himself had been forced to seek refuge. This was an oblique reference to the Massacre of the Innocents.
Also that day the Archbishop of Canterbury - the second in command of the Protestant Christian Church of England - gave his Christmas Day sermon. His reference to the Massacre of the Innocents was much more explicit with the Archbishop comparing the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) to a modern day King Herod.
The Queen's speech is of course pre-recorded and although he delivers it live I don't think the Archbishop of Canterbury simply knocks out his sermon the morning he delivers it.
Therefore through the Jazan fire Saudi Arabia was not only trying to sending the message that its terror campaign will continue it was also trying to send the message that the UK Commonwealth couldn't protect its members because Saudi Arabia is so powerful it had advance knowledge of both the UK Queen's and the Archbishop of Canterbury's Christmas messages.
I should point out then that although it is considered bad manners to report on the Queen's speech before it is broadcast it is far from a state secret. In fact the Monarchy doesn't actually produce the broadcast itself instead working with the UK's main news broadcasters on a rotating basis. This year it was Independent Television News (ITN).
As always when media-types involved there is always quite a bit of gossip. As a commercial broadcaster ITN doesn't have quite the same reverence for the Monarchy as the BBC is run under a Royal Charter and is part of the European Broadcasting Union (EBU) news pool. Plus all journalists in the UK get a preview copy of the speech at least a day in advance.
Therefore getting advance knowledge of either the UK Queen's or the Archbishop of Canterbury's Christmas messages is far from the intelligence coup that Saudi Arabia would like you to believe.
In response to the Jazan fire on Christmas morning (25/12/15) there was a fire at the birthplace of former US President Bill Clinton which is now a protected historical site in Hope, Arkansas. This was quickly confirmed as an act of arson which allowed the US to signal that the Jazan fire was also an arson and therefore a threat.
One of the main issues raised during recent discussions is that the US has become so detached from reality that it is unable to participate. Hence the UN feeling the need to give them a special briefing.
"Hope" was of course the big election campaign slogan of current US President Barack Obama while his first Secretary of State - dealing with foreign affairs - was Bill Clinton's wife Hillary. Hillary Clinton is now all but confirmed as the Democrat's 2016 Presidential Candidate and her unconventional running-mate Donald Trump is working hard to make sure she wins.
Alongside the arson the house was also daubed with some quite childish graffiti. For example the was a large "XX" which could well be a reference to the female chromosomal pairing. Hillary Clinton's seemingly only qualification to be President is that she is a woman.
There was also text-speak such as "55" which means "Ha Ha" and emoji such as the "Razz" symbol of a smiley face sticking its tongue out in mockery.
That could well be a reference to the fact that while the World is facing one of the greatest threats to its safety and stability since the second world war Obama and Hillary seem intent to continue behaving like sulky teenagers.
The biggest contribution to the climate debate over recent days though seems to have come from the climate itself.
As I've mentioned before the northern hemisphere is experiencing unseasonably warm, spring-like weather.
In the US this has caused cold weather to move further south causing intense snow storms over the north-west. This is meeting warmer weather that has been moving up from the Atlantic. Where the two weather systems have met they are producing violent storms, tornadoes and flooding.
In South America this warm Atlantic weather is causing violent storms around the border areas between Brazil, Uruguay, Paraguay and Argentina. This has produced some of the worst flooding in 15 years.
At the other side of the Atlantic this warming weather has brought violent storms and heavy rainfall to the Republic of Ireland and the UK.
On Christmas Eve (24/12/15) the appropriately named "Storm Eva" knocked out power to 6000 households in Ireland. By the time it reached the UK the following day (25/12/15) it caused widespread flooding that over-topped flood defences in large sections of the country. This included the Cumbria region which was previously flooded just two weeks ago during "Storm Desmond."
This of course was all entirely predictable amongst people who have accepted that global warming is manmade and it is causing the climate to change.
However people who refuse to accept the realities of climate change will instead try to blame it all on the "El Nino" weather phenomenon. This is really a redundant argument.
For reasons we don't really understand sea temperatures in the central/eastern Pacific Ocean go through a cycle from a warm peak to a cold trough and back again. El Nino describes the peak of this warming cycle and is defined by a three month period where sea temperatures are 0.5C above average. Sea temperatures are currently four times greater then the 0.5C El Nino rise at 2C and have been for quite some time.
Therefore the El Nino argument seems to be that this extreme weather is not being caused by global warming. Instead it is being caused by the globe being warmer than it should be.
18:05 on 28/12/15 (UK date).
At Least I Was Generally Quiet.
It was around 8pm on November 13th (13/11/15) that I realised I'd need a second double espresso just to make it through to midnight. It was pretty much as I was putting that empty coffee cup back in its saucer that news of the Paris Massacres started to break. I don't feel like I've stopped since.
As a result I didn't really do anything for Christmas. Instead I used it as an opportunity to take a break. Christmas is generally a good time to do this because most of Europe, the Americas and large parts of Africa were also taking a break meaning that it's the quietest time of the year.
For example at the height of COP21 I was getting around 140/50 Tweets per hour. Recently that has dropped to a much more manageable 30/40 although it has started to creep up again.
Rather than rushing around doing things and generating news at this time of year people in the UK tend to stay home watching the big Christmas TV events. The main one of these this year was the last ever episode of worldwide hit "Downton Abbey" being broadcast on ITV on Christmas Day (25/12/15) itself.
Although I've never been much of a fan this is such a big show that none of the other networks even attempted to compete. The BBC in particular seems to have instead focused on stretching its efforts out across the other 11 days of Christmas with a show called "Dickensian."
Set probably a year before Charles Dicken's classic "A Christmas Carol" this begins with the murder of Ebeneezer Scrooge's business partner Jacob Marley explaining how he became a ghost. It then tries to solve the murder mystery bringing in many of Dicken's other classic characters such as Oliver Twist, Miss Haversham, Little Nell etc as potential suspects.
This struck me as rather an interesting idea. Unfortunately the BBC have set aside 10 hours to tell this story. Even at a quiet time of year that's quite a significant time commitment over the course of 11 days. To make matters worse the BBC have decided not to show it as 10 one hour episodes but as 20 thirty minute episodes.
If that wasn't annoying enough they're not even showing an episode a day nor a double bill of episodes each day. Instead they're showing two episodes a day broken up by an hour in between. Therefore managing to catch all the episodes requires the sort of effort and organisation that no TV show is good enough to justify.
The reason for this strange scheduling is that Dickensian has been sandwiched around the BBC's premier soap opera "Eastenders." This is a show that doesn't so much have fans as addicts. The hope seems to be that the BBC will trap Eastenders viewers into also watching Dickensian and in the process show them what proper TV drama looks like.
This strikes me as an extremely poor decision because the BBC seems to be insulting its target audience while at the same time making it far too complicated for people like me who might watch Dickensian casually to bother.
Anyway now I've got my eye in I might attempt some actual work later.
14:50 on 28/12/15 (UK date).
As a result I didn't really do anything for Christmas. Instead I used it as an opportunity to take a break. Christmas is generally a good time to do this because most of Europe, the Americas and large parts of Africa were also taking a break meaning that it's the quietest time of the year.
For example at the height of COP21 I was getting around 140/50 Tweets per hour. Recently that has dropped to a much more manageable 30/40 although it has started to creep up again.
Rather than rushing around doing things and generating news at this time of year people in the UK tend to stay home watching the big Christmas TV events. The main one of these this year was the last ever episode of worldwide hit "Downton Abbey" being broadcast on ITV on Christmas Day (25/12/15) itself.
Although I've never been much of a fan this is such a big show that none of the other networks even attempted to compete. The BBC in particular seems to have instead focused on stretching its efforts out across the other 11 days of Christmas with a show called "Dickensian."
Set probably a year before Charles Dicken's classic "A Christmas Carol" this begins with the murder of Ebeneezer Scrooge's business partner Jacob Marley explaining how he became a ghost. It then tries to solve the murder mystery bringing in many of Dicken's other classic characters such as Oliver Twist, Miss Haversham, Little Nell etc as potential suspects.
This struck me as rather an interesting idea. Unfortunately the BBC have set aside 10 hours to tell this story. Even at a quiet time of year that's quite a significant time commitment over the course of 11 days. To make matters worse the BBC have decided not to show it as 10 one hour episodes but as 20 thirty minute episodes.
If that wasn't annoying enough they're not even showing an episode a day nor a double bill of episodes each day. Instead they're showing two episodes a day broken up by an hour in between. Therefore managing to catch all the episodes requires the sort of effort and organisation that no TV show is good enough to justify.
The reason for this strange scheduling is that Dickensian has been sandwiched around the BBC's premier soap opera "Eastenders." This is a show that doesn't so much have fans as addicts. The hope seems to be that the BBC will trap Eastenders viewers into also watching Dickensian and in the process show them what proper TV drama looks like.
This strikes me as an extremely poor decision because the BBC seems to be insulting its target audience while at the same time making it far too complicated for people like me who might watch Dickensian casually to bother.
Anyway now I've got my eye in I might attempt some actual work later.
14:50 on 28/12/15 (UK date).
Wednesday, 23 December 2015
The Trump Backlash.
In recent weeks US Presidential candidate Donald Trump has faced an international backlash over comments he is alleged to have made calling for Muslims to be banned from the US.
In the UK alone a Parliamentary petition calling for Trump to be banned from the UK has received 564,529 signatures. This is more then five times the number it requires for the issue to be discussed in Parliament and for the UK government to issue a formal response.
I do not like Donald Trump. As a close friend of fellow Presidential hopeful Hillary Clinton and member of the Democrat Party since 2001 I think it is obvious to all that his attempts to seek the Republican nomination are simply a ruse to get Hillary Clinton elected in 2016.
The idea being that every time Trump says something ridiculous it makes the Republicans look bad which allows Hillary to present herself as the reasonable option rather then simply a Saudi shill. Then when Trump fails to win the Republican nomination he will run as an independent candidate. So even if most Americans vote against Hillary she'll still end up being President.
So I've actually disliked Trump long before it became fashionable.
However it must be said that at no point did he actually say what he is being condemned for. Trump didn't suggest banning Muslims from visiting the US nor did he say that Muslim Americans should be kicked out. Instead he said that the US should stop issuing visas to Muslims and other high risk visitors until the US has sorted out the problems in its visa system.
This is a rather reasonable point.
It's emerged that the US born San Bernardino attacker - Syed Rizwan Farook - had been planning to carry out terror attacks as far back as 2012. During this time he contacted various terrorist groups such as Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) over the Internet in the hope of travelling to join them. However he kept getting the brush off.
Then suddenly he was introduced to his co-attacker - Tashfeen Malik - on an Internet dating site. The two soon married and Malik was granted permission to live and work in the US.
To people in intelligence circles this looks as though the marriage was false and Malik was an AQAP sleeper agent who'd exploited a gap in the visa system to enter the US specifically to carry out terrorist attacks. It is something that visa controls are supposed to pick up on.
Then there is the issue of visa-free travel between the European Union (EU) and the US. These means that any one of the attackers in the November 13th (13/11/15) Paris Massacres or any other terrorist with an EU passport could fly into the US no questions asked.
When governments identify gaps this big in their security measures it is expected that they will suspend normal operations until those gaps are plugged.
We saw this after the October 31st (31/10/15) bombing of Kogalymavia flight 7K9268 over Egypt. This exposed gaps in Egyptian airport security so the UK and others responded by suspending all flights to and from Egypt - effectively banning their citizens from Egypt.
It's testament to how sensible Trump's recommendation is that while Trump is being widely criticised for saying it US President Obama is very quietly taking Trump's advice and putting the policy into effect.
Today the lead story in the UK has been of the British Muslim Mahmood family. They arrived at Gatwick airport last Tuesday (15/12/15) expecting to fly to California for a family holiday to Disneyland. At the airport they were informed that their visa to travel to the US had been revoked at the last minute with no explanation.
This is only one of several such stories I've heard about in the 20 days since the San Bernardino attack.
However I've not heard any liberals complaining about it.
That's because to do so would force them to admit that their heroes - Obama and Clinton's - undying love for the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) is making life extremely difficult for Muslims across the world.
17:45 on 23/12/15 (UK date).
In the UK alone a Parliamentary petition calling for Trump to be banned from the UK has received 564,529 signatures. This is more then five times the number it requires for the issue to be discussed in Parliament and for the UK government to issue a formal response.
I do not like Donald Trump. As a close friend of fellow Presidential hopeful Hillary Clinton and member of the Democrat Party since 2001 I think it is obvious to all that his attempts to seek the Republican nomination are simply a ruse to get Hillary Clinton elected in 2016.
The idea being that every time Trump says something ridiculous it makes the Republicans look bad which allows Hillary to present herself as the reasonable option rather then simply a Saudi shill. Then when Trump fails to win the Republican nomination he will run as an independent candidate. So even if most Americans vote against Hillary she'll still end up being President.
So I've actually disliked Trump long before it became fashionable.
However it must be said that at no point did he actually say what he is being condemned for. Trump didn't suggest banning Muslims from visiting the US nor did he say that Muslim Americans should be kicked out. Instead he said that the US should stop issuing visas to Muslims and other high risk visitors until the US has sorted out the problems in its visa system.
This is a rather reasonable point.
It's emerged that the US born San Bernardino attacker - Syed Rizwan Farook - had been planning to carry out terror attacks as far back as 2012. During this time he contacted various terrorist groups such as Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) over the Internet in the hope of travelling to join them. However he kept getting the brush off.
Then suddenly he was introduced to his co-attacker - Tashfeen Malik - on an Internet dating site. The two soon married and Malik was granted permission to live and work in the US.
To people in intelligence circles this looks as though the marriage was false and Malik was an AQAP sleeper agent who'd exploited a gap in the visa system to enter the US specifically to carry out terrorist attacks. It is something that visa controls are supposed to pick up on.
Then there is the issue of visa-free travel between the European Union (EU) and the US. These means that any one of the attackers in the November 13th (13/11/15) Paris Massacres or any other terrorist with an EU passport could fly into the US no questions asked.
When governments identify gaps this big in their security measures it is expected that they will suspend normal operations until those gaps are plugged.
We saw this after the October 31st (31/10/15) bombing of Kogalymavia flight 7K9268 over Egypt. This exposed gaps in Egyptian airport security so the UK and others responded by suspending all flights to and from Egypt - effectively banning their citizens from Egypt.
It's testament to how sensible Trump's recommendation is that while Trump is being widely criticised for saying it US President Obama is very quietly taking Trump's advice and putting the policy into effect.
Today the lead story in the UK has been of the British Muslim Mahmood family. They arrived at Gatwick airport last Tuesday (15/12/15) expecting to fly to California for a family holiday to Disneyland. At the airport they were informed that their visa to travel to the US had been revoked at the last minute with no explanation.
This is only one of several such stories I've heard about in the 20 days since the San Bernardino attack.
However I've not heard any liberals complaining about it.
That's because to do so would force them to admit that their heroes - Obama and Clinton's - undying love for the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) is making life extremely difficult for Muslims across the world.
17:45 on 23/12/15 (UK date).
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