In my previous update which I delivered three hours ago I explained how events in Leytonstone, London, UK weren't planned to have an impact on COP21.
However yesterday there was a terror attack that was planned to impact on the summit. Jaafar Mohammed Saad the Governor of Yemen's Aden province was killed along with several of his aides were killed in a car bombing in Aden. The attack has been claimed by the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL).
As I've said numerous times before the big problem in creating a global climate change agreement is that Gulf nations such as Saudi Arabia simply will not allow smaller, developing nations to sign up. If those nations defy Saudi Arabia's will they will be attacked by Islamist terrorists.
Saudi Arabia's main focus has long been nations in east and central Africa such as Kenya.
In order to threaten these nations Saudi Arabia has been building up Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) in Yemen. From Yemen Saudi Arabia exports Islamist terrorists across the Gulf of Aden to Somalia. From Somalia they attack other African nations.
One aspect of how Saudi Arabia has taken control of AQAP is through the US' drone program. Essentially Saudi intelligence provides the CIA with the names and locations of AQAP leaders telling the US they are an immediate threat. The CIA then goes and kills those individuals only for the Saudis to exploit the newly created vacuum by filling it with one of their agents.
Although the drones are new this is a tactic the CIA itself used during the Cold War particularly in South America through what is know as "The School of the Americas." This was encapsulated in a rather famous quote by a CIA backed fascist guerrilla leader;
"We practice the selective annihilation of Mayors and government officials. For example we create a vacuum. We then fill that vacuum. As popular war advances peace is closer."
The killing of Saad was an almost perfect demonstration of that tactic. As such it was a show of force by Saudi Arabia to warn African nations that they'd better obey at COP21 because Saudi Arabia is poised just across the Gulf of Aden.
That show of force was magnified by Saudi Arabia showing how it has effectively made the US its slave.
Yesterday evening at prime-time in the US but very early this morning in the European time-zone where COP21 is taking place US President Obama finally made a formal address over Wednesday's (2/12/15) San Benardino terror attack.
The primary objective of this was to try and save Obama's reputation because in the eyes of many American voters he is starting to appear increasingly detached from reality.
While the San Benardino attack was taking place Obama was recording a pre-scheduled interview with the US network CBS. Without bothering the check that facts Obama immediately informed the interviewer that the events in San Benardino were another example of gun violence that supported his gun control agenda.
By the time that Obama gave brief public comments on Friday (4/12/15) he was at least open to the possibility that it had been a terror attack. However Obama was still very keen to portray it as an incidence of work place gun violence making frequent reference to an argument that one of the attackers - Syed Farook - is alleged to have had with co-workers just prior to the shooting.
It was on Friday afternoon that is was confirmed that the attackers had pledged allegiance to ISIL. It also emerged that this alleged fight with co-workers had simply not taken place.
What did the real damage to Obama though was the weekly address to the nation he makes on Saturday. This is usually recorded on Thursday evening/Friday morning. However on this occasion Obama didn't see the need to re-shoot in light of the new information of Friday afternoon.
So the message Obama released on Saturday bore absolutely no relation to the events that everybody knew had transpired.
It was on Saturday night that Obama decided he needed to make yesterday's address in order to regain just a hint of credibility.
As a result I was expecting the address to simply gloss over Obama's mistakes by not making any reference to either gun control or workplace violence in the hope we would forget he ever made those comments. Obama would then offer condolences to the victims and their families before commending the police and reassuring Americans that the security services were working day and night to prevent another attack.
The fact that Obama wouldn't mention any action to combat terrorism would be enough to intimidate nations at COP21 signing up to the US authored agreement to prevent action on climate change.
Obama though shockingly went far further then that. He essentially stopped just short of publicly, formally pledging his alligence to ISIL.
The main problem was that throughout Obama seemed to be either smirking or trying to suppress a broad grin. As if the worst terror attack on US soil since September 11th was something to be savoured and enjoyed.
Obama opened by acknowledging that it was indeed a terror attack and offering condolences to the victims. He was though keen to play up that victims were from all different races and some were immigrants while others were born in the US. This was an attempt to further his racist narrative that has got him into so much trouble over the past year.
Obama then offered a re-cap of the efforts that the US has taken in using its drone program to hunt down terrorist leaders overseas. This was a reference to the AQAP problem that had come up earlier in the day. Obama then assured us that he was committed to this failed strategy.
This was intended to intimidate COP21 nations by confirming that Saudi Arabia and by extension AQAP continue to enjoy Obama's full support.
Next Obama mentioned the specific efforts the US is taking in Iraq and Syria. Essentially his message was that he is going to continue with this failed strategy. Again this was intended to intimidate COP21 nations by confirming that ISIL continue to enjoy Obama's full support.
On Syria specifically Obama renewed his commitment to training and equipping Syrian insurgent forces. It is through this program that Turkey has been training and equipping ISIL and associated forces to overthrow the Syrian government.
Obama also made specific reference to denying "safe-haven." Turkey has long pushed to invade Syria on the pre-text of establishing "safe-havens." In response the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF/QSD) has liberated a vast section of Syria along the Turkish border to cut ISIL's supply lines into Turkey.
"Safe-Haven" actually has a very specific meaning under international law which places a large degrees of responsibility of the people who establish and maintain it. Therefore what the SDF/QSD have established is referred to as a "buffer-zone."
Here Obama was attempting to cause confusion but not making it clear whether he was denying Turkey's request to invade Syria as planned or giving it the go-ahead to invade and wipe out the SDF/QSD.
Obama then changed the subject back to his favourite topics of immigration and gun control.
In response the the Paris Massacres Republicans have been calling for the US to stop accepting refugees from Syria. In an attempt to portray them as racist Obama has instead demanded changes to the visa waiver system. He reiterated this call along with calls for gun control.
Continuing his attacks on the Republicans Obama then called for Congress to approve his use of military force. This has long been a sticky issue because Obama's anti-ISIL strategy is terrible. Therefore if Congress were to vote on it they would have to vote to reject it. The hope has been that by delaying the vote Obama would take the hint.
Next Obama raised the spectre of sending US troops into a long and bloody ground war in Syria. This is a strawman argument that Obama has long used in an effort to protect ISIL.
The reason why the fight against ISIL is failing is because Obama does not want to defeat ISIL. So there are many things that can be done such as getting Turkey to end its support for ISIL, supporting the SDF/QSD and providing all anti-ISIL forces with effective close air-support that will defeat ISIL long before we have to start thinking about ground troops.
However Obama doesn't want to do any of that so he uses the fear factor of ground troops to divert from questions about his lack of strategy.
Obama ended with another chorus of his racism narrative by urging us all not to treat all Muslims as members of ISIL. This is very sound advice but Obama is saying in an effort to portray anyone who opposes ISIL as a racist.
This is a well worn Turkish trick that Obama himself seems to have fallen for.
In a desperate effort to move the news cycle along and get American voters to forget about San Benardino the Obama administration has today announced a federal probe into the Chicago Police department amid the usual allegations of racism. A lot of people think the investigation should actually be into Chicago's Mayor who used to be Obama's Chief of Staff.
This is actually quite clever because by reminding COP21 delegates that the Obama administration is incapable of producing a climate change agreement they are reassuring those under terror threat that they can sign the US authored agreement because it will block future action on climate change.
17:40 on 7/12/15 (UK date).
Monday, 7 December 2015
COP21 Terrorism Update #5.
On Saturday (5/12/15) three people were non-fatally stabbed at the Leytonstone underground rail/metro station in east London, UK. Normally this is the sort of thing that barely scrapes its way onto the local news.
However on this occasion the attacker and his victims were not know to each other and the attack was heard to shout; "This is for Syria" whilst randomly stabbing at passers-by. As a result the police almost immediately began investigating it as a potential act of terrorism.
This is pretty standard practice. It is perfectly normal for the police to investigate an incident as the worst type of crime that it can be. If the evidence then indicates that it was in fact a lesser type of crime or even no crime at all they will then scale their investigation back accordingly.
What was so alarming about Wednesday's (2/12/15) attack in San Benardino, US is that the US authorities did the opposite.
US President Obama seemed to immediately determine that the incident was gun violence that would further his gun control agenda rather then terrorism which would embarrass his pro-terrorist agenda. As a result the investigation was conducted almost to exclude any evidence of terrorism.
The reason why I've waited until now to comment on the events in Leytonstone is that they seem to me to be the actions of a self-radicalised lone-wolf rather then part of a larger conspiracy and certainly not something that has been prepared for the COP21.
Also on Wednesday (2/12/14) the UK Parliament was debating and voting on a motion to join air-strikes against the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) in Syria as well as Iraq.
Although I saw a massive disconnect between the debate and the war that's going on in Iraq and Syria this was an event that seemed to grip the entire nation. For example the whole debate was carried live not only on the BBC Parliament channel but also both of the domestic news channels.
As it result it seemed that absolutely everyone had to have an opinion - no matter how uninformed.
While distinctly thin on facts the debate was really poisoned by two main groups; The supporters of the Labour Party and the Scottish National Party (SNP) and supporters of the "Stop the War Coalition (STWC)" protest group. There is obviously a degree of over-lap between the three groups.
In 2003 Labour Prime Minister Tony Blair led the UK into the war in Iraq. This caused a split within the Labour Party and has proved a great recruiting tool for both the hard-left wing of the party and the SNP. As a result rather then engaging in the debate over air-strikes in Syria these factions used it as a re-run of the 2003 Iraq war protests in an effort to boost their membership.
The STWC was formed during the 2003 Iraq war protest. However since then it has rather lost its way - particularly through its links to the Palestinian nationalist cause. STWC now border on being a Sunni-extremist organisation that supported both the 2011 Libya war and up until now has supported the Syria war. Therefore they are extremely angry that the UK seems to be moving away from supporting Sunni extremism.
Although no party came out of the debate looking good the actions of the three above mentioned groups did create a pretty nasty atmosphere. For example MP's who did support action against ISIL were subjected to death threats and things like gory pictures of dead babies being emailed to them.
While this didn't fit in with what is normally considered acceptable Parliamentary behaviour it was pretty accepted that for the most part this was simply idiots talking trash on the Internet rather then genuine threats. It did though cause the security services a degree of concern.
One of the most stupid things to come out of the debate was that claim that taking action against ISIL is Syria would increase the threat to the UK of ISIL attack. The UK is already coming under almost constant attack from ISIL. However up until now those attacks have been small and in the form of self-radicalised lone-wolves. The threat though is evolving and becoming more serious.
Therefore military action against ISIL is not going to increase a threat that is pretty much already at its maximum level. Instead effective military action is actually the only way to reduce that threat.
The concern was that the sound and fury of the all consuming Parliamentary debate would push one of these lone-wolves over the edge and into action. For example since the debate a number of - particularly Labour - MP's who voted from military action have been placed under police protection.
If such a lone-wolf attack was going to take place it was always likely to take place in an area like the Leytonstone/Mile End area of London.
This area has long been the place where the immigrants go. In the first half of the 20th century it was actually full of European and Russian Jews. They largely moved out to be replaced by the Irish. In turn the Irish were largely replaced by Afro-Caribbeans who were then replaced by Muslims and Hindus from Pakistan and India.
More recently due to the link with Islam the area has attracted a lot of East-Africans from countries like Somalia and Ethiopia amongst a fair few Yemenis.
Obviously not all the people who arrived have gone onto leave and there's always been a large indigenous white, British population.
I think what really sums up the area is that while this attacker - whose been confirmed as a Somali - was waving his knife about trying to terrorise people over Syria other Muslims in the crowd started getting in his face and lecturing about how his wasn't a proper Muslim.
This coined the phrase; "You Ain't No Muslim Bruv" which trended on the Internet for most of yesterday.
At around 13:40 on 7/12/15 (UK date) I'll be back to add much more to this later. However I must confess that 8 days in I'm starting to feel the effects now.
However on this occasion the attacker and his victims were not know to each other and the attack was heard to shout; "This is for Syria" whilst randomly stabbing at passers-by. As a result the police almost immediately began investigating it as a potential act of terrorism.
This is pretty standard practice. It is perfectly normal for the police to investigate an incident as the worst type of crime that it can be. If the evidence then indicates that it was in fact a lesser type of crime or even no crime at all they will then scale their investigation back accordingly.
What was so alarming about Wednesday's (2/12/15) attack in San Benardino, US is that the US authorities did the opposite.
US President Obama seemed to immediately determine that the incident was gun violence that would further his gun control agenda rather then terrorism which would embarrass his pro-terrorist agenda. As a result the investigation was conducted almost to exclude any evidence of terrorism.
The reason why I've waited until now to comment on the events in Leytonstone is that they seem to me to be the actions of a self-radicalised lone-wolf rather then part of a larger conspiracy and certainly not something that has been prepared for the COP21.
Also on Wednesday (2/12/14) the UK Parliament was debating and voting on a motion to join air-strikes against the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) in Syria as well as Iraq.
Although I saw a massive disconnect between the debate and the war that's going on in Iraq and Syria this was an event that seemed to grip the entire nation. For example the whole debate was carried live not only on the BBC Parliament channel but also both of the domestic news channels.
As it result it seemed that absolutely everyone had to have an opinion - no matter how uninformed.
While distinctly thin on facts the debate was really poisoned by two main groups; The supporters of the Labour Party and the Scottish National Party (SNP) and supporters of the "Stop the War Coalition (STWC)" protest group. There is obviously a degree of over-lap between the three groups.
In 2003 Labour Prime Minister Tony Blair led the UK into the war in Iraq. This caused a split within the Labour Party and has proved a great recruiting tool for both the hard-left wing of the party and the SNP. As a result rather then engaging in the debate over air-strikes in Syria these factions used it as a re-run of the 2003 Iraq war protests in an effort to boost their membership.
The STWC was formed during the 2003 Iraq war protest. However since then it has rather lost its way - particularly through its links to the Palestinian nationalist cause. STWC now border on being a Sunni-extremist organisation that supported both the 2011 Libya war and up until now has supported the Syria war. Therefore they are extremely angry that the UK seems to be moving away from supporting Sunni extremism.
Although no party came out of the debate looking good the actions of the three above mentioned groups did create a pretty nasty atmosphere. For example MP's who did support action against ISIL were subjected to death threats and things like gory pictures of dead babies being emailed to them.
While this didn't fit in with what is normally considered acceptable Parliamentary behaviour it was pretty accepted that for the most part this was simply idiots talking trash on the Internet rather then genuine threats. It did though cause the security services a degree of concern.
One of the most stupid things to come out of the debate was that claim that taking action against ISIL is Syria would increase the threat to the UK of ISIL attack. The UK is already coming under almost constant attack from ISIL. However up until now those attacks have been small and in the form of self-radicalised lone-wolves. The threat though is evolving and becoming more serious.
Therefore military action against ISIL is not going to increase a threat that is pretty much already at its maximum level. Instead effective military action is actually the only way to reduce that threat.
The concern was that the sound and fury of the all consuming Parliamentary debate would push one of these lone-wolves over the edge and into action. For example since the debate a number of - particularly Labour - MP's who voted from military action have been placed under police protection.
If such a lone-wolf attack was going to take place it was always likely to take place in an area like the Leytonstone/Mile End area of London.
This area has long been the place where the immigrants go. In the first half of the 20th century it was actually full of European and Russian Jews. They largely moved out to be replaced by the Irish. In turn the Irish were largely replaced by Afro-Caribbeans who were then replaced by Muslims and Hindus from Pakistan and India.
More recently due to the link with Islam the area has attracted a lot of East-Africans from countries like Somalia and Ethiopia amongst a fair few Yemenis.
Obviously not all the people who arrived have gone onto leave and there's always been a large indigenous white, British population.
I think what really sums up the area is that while this attacker - whose been confirmed as a Somali - was waving his knife about trying to terrorise people over Syria other Muslims in the crowd started getting in his face and lecturing about how his wasn't a proper Muslim.
This coined the phrase; "You Ain't No Muslim Bruv" which trended on the Internet for most of yesterday.
At around 13:40 on 7/12/15 (UK date) I'll be back to add much more to this later. However I must confess that 8 days in I'm starting to feel the effects now.
Sunday, 6 December 2015
The Man Who Was Not There.
In the last few moments US President Barack Obama has completed his primetime address to the nation on the threat of terrorism.
Coming 23 days after the Paris Massacres and 4 days (local) after the San Benardino attacks it was unlikely that I was ever going to give him a passing grade. But I have to say;
That really stunk!
Although as a politician I knew Obama was never going to formally admit it I at least expected him to acknowledge that his attempts to exploit the San Benardio attacks to further his gun control agenda had failed. I then expected that Obama would offer some weasel words assuring Americans that despite his repeated failures they could all sleep safely in their beds.
Instead though he acknowledged that the San Bernardino attacks had been an act of terrorism. He then quickly moved on to talk about how the US had been targeting terrorists with its drone program since 2001. This was a reference to the way that drone program has helped make groups like Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) far stronger and far nastier.
Obama then though threw his full support behind that failed program and made clear that it will continue.
Next Obama spoke of the US' military operations in Syria and Iraq. He made clear that he intends to stay the course and that the overthrow of Shia-Muslim governments in the region is a higher priority to him then defeating the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL).
Speaking of the anti-ISIL forces Obama re-confirmed his commitment to defeating and denying them safe-haven. I suppose this was intended to generate speculation as to whether Obama would act to prevent a Turkish invasion of Syria.
However it sounded a lot to me as though Obama was re-committing himself to the Turkish plan of eliminating the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF/QSD) who have established a buffer-zone or 'safe-haven' cutting ISIL's supply lines with Turkey.
Obama then attempted to blame the entire thing on those nasty Republicans who have been blocking his gun control agenda. He then demanded to know why Congress will not give him authorisation to carry out the above mentioned mad-cap plan.
I personally think that the real question is why Obama is still carrying out that plan despite no sane person giving him permission to do so?
Finally Obama seemed to suggest that America deserved to be attacked due to its racism. He urged us all to join hands sing "Kumbaya," vote Democrat and not join in with that anti-Muslim sentiment.
Unless of course they're Shias in which case they clearly f*cking deserved it.
Anyway I've been drinking for a good 10 hours now so there may be a better version of this hiding somewhere deep inside of me. Tomorrow I may go look for it.
01:45 on 7/12/15 (UK date).
Coming 23 days after the Paris Massacres and 4 days (local) after the San Benardino attacks it was unlikely that I was ever going to give him a passing grade. But I have to say;
That really stunk!
Although as a politician I knew Obama was never going to formally admit it I at least expected him to acknowledge that his attempts to exploit the San Benardio attacks to further his gun control agenda had failed. I then expected that Obama would offer some weasel words assuring Americans that despite his repeated failures they could all sleep safely in their beds.
Instead though he acknowledged that the San Bernardino attacks had been an act of terrorism. He then quickly moved on to talk about how the US had been targeting terrorists with its drone program since 2001. This was a reference to the way that drone program has helped make groups like Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) far stronger and far nastier.
Obama then though threw his full support behind that failed program and made clear that it will continue.
Next Obama spoke of the US' military operations in Syria and Iraq. He made clear that he intends to stay the course and that the overthrow of Shia-Muslim governments in the region is a higher priority to him then defeating the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL).
Speaking of the anti-ISIL forces Obama re-confirmed his commitment to defeating and denying them safe-haven. I suppose this was intended to generate speculation as to whether Obama would act to prevent a Turkish invasion of Syria.
However it sounded a lot to me as though Obama was re-committing himself to the Turkish plan of eliminating the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF/QSD) who have established a buffer-zone or 'safe-haven' cutting ISIL's supply lines with Turkey.
Obama then attempted to blame the entire thing on those nasty Republicans who have been blocking his gun control agenda. He then demanded to know why Congress will not give him authorisation to carry out the above mentioned mad-cap plan.
I personally think that the real question is why Obama is still carrying out that plan despite no sane person giving him permission to do so?
Finally Obama seemed to suggest that America deserved to be attacked due to its racism. He urged us all to join hands sing "Kumbaya," vote Democrat and not join in with that anti-Muslim sentiment.
Unless of course they're Shias in which case they clearly f*cking deserved it.
Anyway I've been drinking for a good 10 hours now so there may be a better version of this hiding somewhere deep inside of me. Tomorrow I may go look for it.
01:45 on 7/12/15 (UK date).
Saturday, 5 December 2015
We Did Not Survive Doha For This.
In 1992 the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) was established to tackle the global threat of climate change.
In 1997 the UNFCCC established the Kyoto Protocol which expired in 2012. So in 2011 the UNFCCC established the Ad Hoc Working Group on the Durban Platform for Enhanced Action (ADP) to draw up a replacement.
The problem has always been the Gulf states led by Saudi Arabia. These were established by the western powers in the 1930's to control the global supply of oil.
As a result Saudi Arabia's entire existence is predicated on nations being forced to buy oil at vastly inflated prices in order to burn it increasing climate change.
To say that Saudi Arabia is opposed to action against climate change is probably one of the greatest understatements ever uttered.
Their hope was that the ADP would simply fall at the first hurdle and die out at the 2012 COP 18 Summit in Doha, Qatar. Ever since the failure of the Doha round of World Trade Organisations (WTO) in 2001 Doha has been considered the place where international agreements go to die.
Despite the animosity of the host and the fact the global economy was still in the grips of one of the worst crises the World has ever seen the UNFCCC not only managed to survive Doha it prospered.
After several days of frantic activity at a summit that was extended by several days COP18 managed to produce the Doha Amendment which extended the Kyoto Protocol until 2020 buying time for its replacement to drawn up.
So in 2013 the Gulf states simply attacked the UNFCCC harder.
In its vanity the US sent the popstar Rihanna out on her Diamonds World Tour. They're hope was that this make them the centre of attention at COP19 and cause the sort of absolute chaos they could exploit to their advantage.
However the Gulf states had prepared a far nastier plan to coincide with the US'.
Their plan involved using Islamist terrorists to start a war that would engulf much of African from Nigeria in the west to Somalia in the east and from Libya in the north via Mali and the Central African Republic (CAR) to the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) in the south.
Fortunately France saw this coming an stepped up not once by twice. First in Mali and then again in the Central Africa Republic. So although Nigeria has been subjected to the Boko Haram insurgency ever since the continent-wide war never got going and I only had to spend the one day in jail.
As a result the ADP really began to find its feet during COP19 and by COP20 in 2014 we actually had a negotiating text.
However while the ADP was making progress a new threat emerged in the form of US President Barack Obama and his vain desire to include a global climate change deal as part of his god-awful legacy.
The US of course did not sign up to the Kyoto Protocol in 1997 and still has not implemented any nationwide climate change measures let alone international ones.
As a result the US is so far behind when it comes to climate change negotiations they're still in Kindergarten while the rest of us are in hats and gowns collecting our diplomas.
For example in June of 2013 in his role of global leader in the fight against climate change Obama issued an executive order demanding that every US state draws up a plan of how it is going to mitigate and adapt to the effects of climate change.
This is the Intended Nationally Determined Contribution (INDC) plan that the ADP devised two years previously. Obama had simply stolen it, watered it down and tried to pass it off as his own work.
Similarly in November 2014 Obama again championed his 'leadership' on climate change by announcing that he'd secured a joint climate action plan with China. This was an agreement that China has had on the table since 2010. The delay in putting it in place was getting Obama to agree to it.
With America being so far behind the rest of the World on the issue if Obama was serious about securing a global climate change deal at COP21 which is currently taking place in Paris, France it was obvious that he would have to spend most of his Presidency building bilateral support for action within the US.
Instead Obama has dedicated his entire Presidency to confrontation with the Republican Party in the hope that he will one day vanquish them and all branches of US government will forever be under Democrat control.
By exploiting the climate change issue in this domestic political squabble Obama has only succeeded in making it a partisan issue that is far too toxic for any Republican to touch.
Matters really came to a head in August of 2014 when Obama launched the Black Lives Matter (BLM) campaign in the hope of triggering a wave of racial unrest that would sweep the Democrats to control of Congress in the mid-term elections.
Although I will need to check my notes to find the exact date I vividly remember spending one long Saturday evening between the death of Mike Brown and the start of the US bombing campaign in Iraq working out all the variables and options of the plan.
I decided that if Obama took the fight against the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) seriously I would continue to protect him from his own arrogance and stupidity and help the Democrats to victory in the mid-term elections inspite of Black Lives Matter.
However if Obama refused to take the fight against ISIL seriously I would lift my protection and allow the Republicans to benefit from Obama's stupidity at the mid-term elections.
I think we all know which path Obama chose.
I took this decision in the full knowledge that a Republican controlled Congress would make it next to impossible for the US to ratify a meaningful climate change agreement. So throughout my attempts to shape a new agreement I placed a great emphasis on creating an agreement that would work without US involvement.
Although the existing threats to the process have prevented me from setting out my stall as clearly as I would have liked and the evolution that will occur over the course of such a long-term agreement discourage rigid rules this new agreement is designed to move away from getting specific nations to cut their emissions towards cutting global emissions.
At the heart of this is the concept of collaboration between nations provided by the additional/conditional portion of the INDC.
Nations like South Korea along with traditional climate rebels such as the UK have indicated that while they're not prepared to spend billions of dollars reducing their own emissions by a fraction they are prepared to spend hundreds of millions of dollars on the technology that will help developing nations leap-frog the fossil fuel stage of their economic development.
Many developing nations - particularly the Small Island Developing States (SIDS) - are already well along the path to becoming 100% carbon neutral in the next decade if the right level of support is available. So if implemented this approach will almost immediately remove many thousands of tonnes of emissions.
On its own it will not be enough to solve the problem but it will be a substantial step in the right direction.
Although the US may initially sit out the first phases of the agreement the fact that we are able to prove that the system works and action on climate change is no longer a barrier to economic development will serve to increase the pressure on the US to join.
While this is going on the effects of climate change will continue to worsen and become even more undeniable.
Just this summer more the 1000 people died in Pakistan - not from terrorism but from extreme temperatures. This past week at least 18 people have died and tens of thousands have been displaced by flooding in the Indian state of Chennai.
As I write the UK is putting into motion emergency evacuation plans to deal with flooding in the county of Cumbria. The fact that this is the same UK region that was devastated by floods in 2007, 2009 and again in 2012 is likely a large part of the reason why the UK has become a lot more co-operative on the climate change issue in recent years.
There is a limit to how long even the most heavily bribed Republican Congressman can convince their electorate that the evidence they can see in front of them simply does not exist.
So if a functioning mechanism to combat climate change can be put in place it will only be a matter of time before the US joins. If we can get 2016 Democratic Presidential Candidate Hillary Clinton to stop using the issue as a dog whistle to whip up her electoral base in the great culture war we may even get a lot further a lot quicker.
Australia has already done its bit by removing Prime Minister Tony Abbott who was the leading voice amid calls that US ratification was a pre-condition to anybody signing up.
Unfortunately despite 7 years of evidence to the contrary Obama still thinks of himself as the all powerful puppet master craftily pulling all our strings.
So rather then using the UNFCCC's October 2015 meeting to work through the remaining problems with the negotiating text Obama - through the US co-chair Daniel Reifsnyder - used it to replace everyones hard work with a whole new text.
Obama's twin priorities in this new text were simple; It could not have fixed emission reduction targets and it could not be legally enforceable.
Removing those two provisions would allow Obama to ratify the agreement through executive order by-passing the Republican controlled Congress and allow a special section honouring Obama's greatest achievement to be created in his Presidential library.
Whether or not the agreement actually works doesn't matter one little bit to Obama because he is already clearing his desk.
Not only does the US non-paper not include provisions to set emission reductions or provisions to legally enforce any national determined emissions reduction it also - and unlike the Kyoto Protocol - does not have sunset clause at which it expires and needs to be replaced.
So if adopted the US non-paper is likely to be the last action ever taken to combat climate change even though it will be wholly and completely ineffective.
As such it represents the kill-shot to the UNFCCC the Gulf states have been searching for these past 23 years.
Those Gulf states have already moved to ensure that violence will see their will done at COP21.
So on October 31st (31/10/15) Kogalymavia flight 7K9268 was bombed out of the skies over Egypt murdering 224 civilians aboard.
On November 13th (13/11/15) 130 civilians were massacred on the streets of COP21 host city Paris.
On November 20th (20/11/15) 21 civilians were murdered at a COP21-style hotel in Bamako, the capital of Mali.
On November 24th (24/11/15) 12 Presidential guards were murdered in a suicide bombing on a COP21-style shuttle bus in Tunis, the capital of Tunisia.
Just today at least 27 people have been murdered in triple suicide bombings on an island in Lake Chad, Chad. This is spill over from the war that Nigeria, Cameroon and Chad are currently try to fight against Boko Haram.
While it obviously can never be far from the minds of any COP21 delegate from west Africa I consider the fight against Boko Haram to be a full-scale war. So as with Iraq, Syria or Libya I can't report on and analyse every single attack. There are simply too many.
Although the death toll was comparatively small the most shocking Islamist terror attack was the one that took place in San Bernadino, California, US on Wednesday (2/12/15).
While I am not yet happy to confirm it myself the US media has been talking openly about the female attacker - Tashfeen Malik - being a Saudi sleeper agent who was smuggled into the US last year specifically to carry out this attack.
US President Obama's response to all this has been to close the curtains and hide behind the sofa rather like a child watching a particularly scary episode of "Doctor Who."
The fact that the supposed Commander-in-Chief of both the World's largest economy and the World's largest military is unwilling or unable to protect the homeland he is sworn to protect from Islamist terror attacks must utterly terrify all those smaller, less powerful nations who live under immediate and constant threat of Islamist terror attack.
As a result it seems that those nations are going to sign whatever the guy with the gun to their head tells them to sign.
It is up to the bigger and stronger nations to use that size and strength to finally shoulder the burden.
23:45 on 5/12/15 (UK date).
In 1997 the UNFCCC established the Kyoto Protocol which expired in 2012. So in 2011 the UNFCCC established the Ad Hoc Working Group on the Durban Platform for Enhanced Action (ADP) to draw up a replacement.
The problem has always been the Gulf states led by Saudi Arabia. These were established by the western powers in the 1930's to control the global supply of oil.
As a result Saudi Arabia's entire existence is predicated on nations being forced to buy oil at vastly inflated prices in order to burn it increasing climate change.
To say that Saudi Arabia is opposed to action against climate change is probably one of the greatest understatements ever uttered.
Their hope was that the ADP would simply fall at the first hurdle and die out at the 2012 COP 18 Summit in Doha, Qatar. Ever since the failure of the Doha round of World Trade Organisations (WTO) in 2001 Doha has been considered the place where international agreements go to die.
Despite the animosity of the host and the fact the global economy was still in the grips of one of the worst crises the World has ever seen the UNFCCC not only managed to survive Doha it prospered.
After several days of frantic activity at a summit that was extended by several days COP18 managed to produce the Doha Amendment which extended the Kyoto Protocol until 2020 buying time for its replacement to drawn up.
So in 2013 the Gulf states simply attacked the UNFCCC harder.
In its vanity the US sent the popstar Rihanna out on her Diamonds World Tour. They're hope was that this make them the centre of attention at COP19 and cause the sort of absolute chaos they could exploit to their advantage.
However the Gulf states had prepared a far nastier plan to coincide with the US'.
Their plan involved using Islamist terrorists to start a war that would engulf much of African from Nigeria in the west to Somalia in the east and from Libya in the north via Mali and the Central African Republic (CAR) to the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) in the south.
Fortunately France saw this coming an stepped up not once by twice. First in Mali and then again in the Central Africa Republic. So although Nigeria has been subjected to the Boko Haram insurgency ever since the continent-wide war never got going and I only had to spend the one day in jail.
As a result the ADP really began to find its feet during COP19 and by COP20 in 2014 we actually had a negotiating text.
However while the ADP was making progress a new threat emerged in the form of US President Barack Obama and his vain desire to include a global climate change deal as part of his god-awful legacy.
The US of course did not sign up to the Kyoto Protocol in 1997 and still has not implemented any nationwide climate change measures let alone international ones.
As a result the US is so far behind when it comes to climate change negotiations they're still in Kindergarten while the rest of us are in hats and gowns collecting our diplomas.
For example in June of 2013 in his role of global leader in the fight against climate change Obama issued an executive order demanding that every US state draws up a plan of how it is going to mitigate and adapt to the effects of climate change.
This is the Intended Nationally Determined Contribution (INDC) plan that the ADP devised two years previously. Obama had simply stolen it, watered it down and tried to pass it off as his own work.
Similarly in November 2014 Obama again championed his 'leadership' on climate change by announcing that he'd secured a joint climate action plan with China. This was an agreement that China has had on the table since 2010. The delay in putting it in place was getting Obama to agree to it.
With America being so far behind the rest of the World on the issue if Obama was serious about securing a global climate change deal at COP21 which is currently taking place in Paris, France it was obvious that he would have to spend most of his Presidency building bilateral support for action within the US.
Instead Obama has dedicated his entire Presidency to confrontation with the Republican Party in the hope that he will one day vanquish them and all branches of US government will forever be under Democrat control.
By exploiting the climate change issue in this domestic political squabble Obama has only succeeded in making it a partisan issue that is far too toxic for any Republican to touch.
Matters really came to a head in August of 2014 when Obama launched the Black Lives Matter (BLM) campaign in the hope of triggering a wave of racial unrest that would sweep the Democrats to control of Congress in the mid-term elections.
Although I will need to check my notes to find the exact date I vividly remember spending one long Saturday evening between the death of Mike Brown and the start of the US bombing campaign in Iraq working out all the variables and options of the plan.
I decided that if Obama took the fight against the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) seriously I would continue to protect him from his own arrogance and stupidity and help the Democrats to victory in the mid-term elections inspite of Black Lives Matter.
However if Obama refused to take the fight against ISIL seriously I would lift my protection and allow the Republicans to benefit from Obama's stupidity at the mid-term elections.
I think we all know which path Obama chose.
I took this decision in the full knowledge that a Republican controlled Congress would make it next to impossible for the US to ratify a meaningful climate change agreement. So throughout my attempts to shape a new agreement I placed a great emphasis on creating an agreement that would work without US involvement.
Although the existing threats to the process have prevented me from setting out my stall as clearly as I would have liked and the evolution that will occur over the course of such a long-term agreement discourage rigid rules this new agreement is designed to move away from getting specific nations to cut their emissions towards cutting global emissions.
At the heart of this is the concept of collaboration between nations provided by the additional/conditional portion of the INDC.
Nations like South Korea along with traditional climate rebels such as the UK have indicated that while they're not prepared to spend billions of dollars reducing their own emissions by a fraction they are prepared to spend hundreds of millions of dollars on the technology that will help developing nations leap-frog the fossil fuel stage of their economic development.
Many developing nations - particularly the Small Island Developing States (SIDS) - are already well along the path to becoming 100% carbon neutral in the next decade if the right level of support is available. So if implemented this approach will almost immediately remove many thousands of tonnes of emissions.
On its own it will not be enough to solve the problem but it will be a substantial step in the right direction.
Although the US may initially sit out the first phases of the agreement the fact that we are able to prove that the system works and action on climate change is no longer a barrier to economic development will serve to increase the pressure on the US to join.
While this is going on the effects of climate change will continue to worsen and become even more undeniable.
Just this summer more the 1000 people died in Pakistan - not from terrorism but from extreme temperatures. This past week at least 18 people have died and tens of thousands have been displaced by flooding in the Indian state of Chennai.
As I write the UK is putting into motion emergency evacuation plans to deal with flooding in the county of Cumbria. The fact that this is the same UK region that was devastated by floods in 2007, 2009 and again in 2012 is likely a large part of the reason why the UK has become a lot more co-operative on the climate change issue in recent years.
There is a limit to how long even the most heavily bribed Republican Congressman can convince their electorate that the evidence they can see in front of them simply does not exist.
So if a functioning mechanism to combat climate change can be put in place it will only be a matter of time before the US joins. If we can get 2016 Democratic Presidential Candidate Hillary Clinton to stop using the issue as a dog whistle to whip up her electoral base in the great culture war we may even get a lot further a lot quicker.
Australia has already done its bit by removing Prime Minister Tony Abbott who was the leading voice amid calls that US ratification was a pre-condition to anybody signing up.
Unfortunately despite 7 years of evidence to the contrary Obama still thinks of himself as the all powerful puppet master craftily pulling all our strings.
So rather then using the UNFCCC's October 2015 meeting to work through the remaining problems with the negotiating text Obama - through the US co-chair Daniel Reifsnyder - used it to replace everyones hard work with a whole new text.
Obama's twin priorities in this new text were simple; It could not have fixed emission reduction targets and it could not be legally enforceable.
Removing those two provisions would allow Obama to ratify the agreement through executive order by-passing the Republican controlled Congress and allow a special section honouring Obama's greatest achievement to be created in his Presidential library.
Whether or not the agreement actually works doesn't matter one little bit to Obama because he is already clearing his desk.
Not only does the US non-paper not include provisions to set emission reductions or provisions to legally enforce any national determined emissions reduction it also - and unlike the Kyoto Protocol - does not have sunset clause at which it expires and needs to be replaced.
So if adopted the US non-paper is likely to be the last action ever taken to combat climate change even though it will be wholly and completely ineffective.
As such it represents the kill-shot to the UNFCCC the Gulf states have been searching for these past 23 years.
Those Gulf states have already moved to ensure that violence will see their will done at COP21.
So on October 31st (31/10/15) Kogalymavia flight 7K9268 was bombed out of the skies over Egypt murdering 224 civilians aboard.
On November 13th (13/11/15) 130 civilians were massacred on the streets of COP21 host city Paris.
On November 20th (20/11/15) 21 civilians were murdered at a COP21-style hotel in Bamako, the capital of Mali.
On November 24th (24/11/15) 12 Presidential guards were murdered in a suicide bombing on a COP21-style shuttle bus in Tunis, the capital of Tunisia.
Just today at least 27 people have been murdered in triple suicide bombings on an island in Lake Chad, Chad. This is spill over from the war that Nigeria, Cameroon and Chad are currently try to fight against Boko Haram.
While it obviously can never be far from the minds of any COP21 delegate from west Africa I consider the fight against Boko Haram to be a full-scale war. So as with Iraq, Syria or Libya I can't report on and analyse every single attack. There are simply too many.
Although the death toll was comparatively small the most shocking Islamist terror attack was the one that took place in San Bernadino, California, US on Wednesday (2/12/15).
While I am not yet happy to confirm it myself the US media has been talking openly about the female attacker - Tashfeen Malik - being a Saudi sleeper agent who was smuggled into the US last year specifically to carry out this attack.
US President Obama's response to all this has been to close the curtains and hide behind the sofa rather like a child watching a particularly scary episode of "Doctor Who."
The fact that the supposed Commander-in-Chief of both the World's largest economy and the World's largest military is unwilling or unable to protect the homeland he is sworn to protect from Islamist terror attacks must utterly terrify all those smaller, less powerful nations who live under immediate and constant threat of Islamist terror attack.
As a result it seems that those nations are going to sign whatever the guy with the gun to their head tells them to sign.
It is up to the bigger and stronger nations to use that size and strength to finally shoulder the burden.
23:45 on 5/12/15 (UK date).
Operation Featherweight: Month 17, Week 2, Day 2.
On Wednesday December 2nd (2/12/15) the UK Parliament authorised the Royal Air Force (RAF) to conduct air-strikes in Syria against the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL). Within an hour of that vote the RAF conducted its first air-strikes.
Although this has been covered almost constantly by the British media since to those familiar with the conflict it is just another insignificant step in a well rehearsed routine.
As with all aerial bombing campaigns the first priority of the US-led coalition - Combined Joint Task Force: Operation Inherent Resolve (CJTFOIR) - is to fly reconnaissance missions to identify potential targets. Once a potential target has been identified it is passed up CJTFOIR's chain of command for authorisation to strike that target.
Since Turkey formally joined CJTFOIR in early September 2015 CJTFOIR has not been able to authorise any air-strikes against ISIL's heartland around the Euphrates River - particularly the city of Raqqa.
However if by some miracle authorisation is given to strike a target the mission is placed into what is known as the Air Tasking Order (ATO). Essentially this is a taxi rank where all the aircraft assigned to CJTFOIR queue up waiting to be assigned missions.
When Jordanian pilot Moaz al-Kasasbeh was burnt alive by ISIL in February 2015 an unspoken agreement was reached within CJTFOIR that when a new country joined the coalition it would immediately go to the front of the ATO and be assigned all available missions.
This allows the media from that country to show lots of pictures of aircraft taking off and cockpit footage of bombs being dropped convincing the domestic audience that their leaders are trying really hard to defeat ISIL. Then after a couple of days the news cycle moves on and the ATO goes back to normal.
By the time the RAF joined the operation in Syria there was only one mission on the ATO. This involved dropping just three 230kg (500lb) bombs on the Omar oil field.
The Omar oil field is essentially an unpopulated patch of desert roughly 20km (12 miles) east of the city of Deir-er-Zour and 80km (50 miles) west of Syria's border with Iraq.
It is roughly 150km (90 miles) south-east of Raqqa and 130km (80 miles) south of the city of Hasakah which is the front-line between ISIL and the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) who are fighting them. It is also roughly 400km (240 miles) from where ISIL's oil export route crosses the border into Turkey.
As such I might even go so far as to say that the routine training exercises the RAF carries out on bombing ranges within the UK are likely to do more damage to ISIL then strikes against empty patches of desert in Syria.
On Thursday (3/12/15) there were no missions assigned to the ATO so neither the RAF nor any air force assigned to CJTFOIR bombed any targets in Syria.
On Friday (4/12/15) - perhaps with the UK media losing interest - another mission to bomb the Omar oil fields was assigned to the ATO and the RAF carried this out dropping eight 230kg (500lb) Paveway bombs.
So no. On Wednesday (2/12/15) the UK Parliament didn't vote to conduct air-strikes against Syria. Instead it voted to allow Turkey to tell the UK that it can't bomb ISIL in Syria.
One interesting thing did come out of the vote though when Prime Minister David Cameron finally confirmed what he meant when he said there were 70,000 moderate ground forces in Syria ready to fight ISIL.
This was a claim first made during the previous Thursday's (26/11/15) debate.
Initially it sounded credible because the Kurdish/Arab/Syriac SDF (Arabic: QSD) are 64,000 strong. Overwhelmingly but not exclusively Sunni-Muslim they represent the main ethnic groups in Syria with the exception of the Turkmen and are a moderate, secular force that has been proven in battle. They are currently located 50km (30 miles) away from ISIL de facto capital of Raqqa.
However in Wednesday's (2/12/15) Prime Minister Cameron announced that he has no intention of working with the SDF/QSD. Instead he plans to magic these 70,000 moderate ground forces out of the fragments of the Free Syrian Army (FSA).
This looks likely to be extremely difficult because when Cameron also said that there are around 70 armed groups currently active in Syria this was an under-estimate of the magnitude of around 100x. There are closer to 7,000 armed groups currently active in Syria.
For the most part these groups operate in much the same way that criminal street gangs operate in places like the US. That is to say they fight primarily for control of a territory in order to profit from that territory through smuggling and the taxation of the hostage population. Sometimes they go to war with each other to expand their territory and sometimes they form temporary alliances to boost their profits.
The big effort to unify these disparate groups has been the formation of the Army of Conquest/Jaish al-Fatah (JAF) coalition. This is led by Al Qaeda's Syrian affiliate Al Nusra Front (ANF) alongside the Islamic Movement of the Freemen of the Levant/Harakat Ahrar ash-Sham al-Islamiyya (FML).
The JAF shares ISIL ideology and is every bit as brutal as them. FSA groups that have joined JAF have happily engaged in sectarian massacres particularly of Shia Muslims and the Druze religious minority. Its prime objective is the overthrow of the Syrian government and it has frequently allied itself with ISIL to achieve that aim.
However that is not to say that all members of the FSA are bad. After all two of the main Arab groups of the SDF/QSD are the Euphrates Volcano/Burkan al-Furat and the Army of Revolution/Jaish al-Thuwar who are both FSA fragments.
The problem is that the brutality of the JAF rarely gives otherwise moderate local FSA fragments the choice of whether to join them to pursue their extremist agenda.
A prime example of this has been around the Syrian town of Maera sits around 30km (20 miles) north of the Syrian city of Aleppo and around 20km (13 miles) south of Syria's border with Turkey.
As I've mentioned before on August 9th (9/8/15) Turkish President/Prime Minister/Emperor Recep Tayyip Erdogan ordered the JAF to withdraw from Maera to hand the territory to ISIL. Henceforth it has been referred to as "Erdogan's Pocket."
However the withdrawal of the ANF and FML sections did not mean that all members of the JAF left Maera. Instead a small FSA fragment were left to fight ISIL alone. With ISIL vastly outnumbering them and using chemical weapons against them this FSA fragment was quickly defeated.
Therefore the whole thing does look like Erdogan, ANF, FML and ISIL getting together and going; "Oh look there's some moderate forces. Let's have them killed."
Erdogan's primary reason for handing Maera to ISIL was to create a panic over ISIL holding position so close to Syria's border with Turkey. This panic would then be used as a pre-text for a Turkish invasion of Syria to re-establish Turkey's supply lines with ISIL that the SDF/QSD have been so successful in cutting.
Despite it being obvious to all what Erdogan's plan is it has been permitted to steadily gather pace since August.
With the close air-support they deny to the SDF/QSD and Iraqi forces CJTFOIR has been helping the Syrian Turkmen Brigades (STB) who are essentially an irregular and therefore illegal branch of the Turkish military advance from their positions in the Latakia Mountains towards Maera.
The STB will then act as the bridgehead for the invasion by regular Turkish forces which is rumoured to be scheduled for the middle of next week.
The problem for Erdogan has been Russia which is simply not going to allow Turkey to continue its support for ISIL.
So Russia has been concentrating its considerable firepower on dislodging the STB from its base in the Latakia Mountains. This is why on November 24th (24/11/15) Turkey shot down a Russian Su-24 as it was on a bombing run over the Latakia Mountains.
Erdogan's gamble was that the international community would rally around him against Russia.
Although US President Barack Obama's support for Erdogan has remained resolute this largely did not happen. In fact rather then being stopped Russia has intensified its attacks on the Latakia Mountains the STB now seem to be in full retreat.
Also Russia has started air-dropping weapons and ammunition to Kurdish Peoples Protection Units (YPG) who are not formally part of the SDF/QSD in what is referred to as the "Afrin Canton" that sits on Syria's border with Turkey north-west of the city of Aleppo.
It seems likely then that with Russian support the YPG will soon move into Maera cutting it off from the Latakia Mountains and finally sealing Erdogan's pocket.
This seems to leave Erdogan with little option other then to invade Syria next week as planned or not at all. So last night Erdogan moved to test the diplomatic waters by invading Iraq where Russia does not currently operate.
A 1000 strong tank battalion backed by a further 200 strong artillery unit have crossed into Iraq's Nineveh province and have taken up positions close to Mosul - ISIL de facto capital in Iraq.
Stressing that they have in no way given permission for this Turkish invasion the Iraqi government have described it as a serious violation of Iraq's sovereignty and intend to protest it in the strongest possible way.
This presents a very serious problem for CJTFOIR because Iraqi forces are currently fighting ISIL on the Anbar and Mosul fronts. If the Turkish troops is not withdrawn Iraq will have to divert troops from the fight against ISIL in order to expel the Turkish forces.
This would put CJTFOIR in direct combat against the nation it is supposed to be protecting from ISIL.
Erdogan's primary objective though is to test the reaction of the international community - particularly the United Nations Security Council (UNSC). If they do not speak up to condemn this invasion of Iraq Erdogan will calculate that they also won't speak up when Turkey invades Syria.
Erdogan has clearly been emboldened by the UNSC's July 31st (31/7/15) failure to condemn his unilateral invocation of Article 51 of the UN Charter to bomb anti-ISIL forces. He has clearly been further emboldened by the idiotic statement 2249 France placed before the UNSC on November 20th (20/11/15) which completely incorrectly stated that Article 51 can be unilaterally invoked while a Chapter 7 resolution is in force.
Erdogan has clearly been further emboldened by Wednesday's vote in the UK Parliament which attempted to legitimise the French state and again incorrectly stated that Article 51 can be unilaterally invoked while a Chapter 7 resolution is in force.
Good luck hearing about any on that on the mainstream news though.
17:30 on 5/12/15 (UK date).
Although this has been covered almost constantly by the British media since to those familiar with the conflict it is just another insignificant step in a well rehearsed routine.
As with all aerial bombing campaigns the first priority of the US-led coalition - Combined Joint Task Force: Operation Inherent Resolve (CJTFOIR) - is to fly reconnaissance missions to identify potential targets. Once a potential target has been identified it is passed up CJTFOIR's chain of command for authorisation to strike that target.
Since Turkey formally joined CJTFOIR in early September 2015 CJTFOIR has not been able to authorise any air-strikes against ISIL's heartland around the Euphrates River - particularly the city of Raqqa.
However if by some miracle authorisation is given to strike a target the mission is placed into what is known as the Air Tasking Order (ATO). Essentially this is a taxi rank where all the aircraft assigned to CJTFOIR queue up waiting to be assigned missions.
When Jordanian pilot Moaz al-Kasasbeh was burnt alive by ISIL in February 2015 an unspoken agreement was reached within CJTFOIR that when a new country joined the coalition it would immediately go to the front of the ATO and be assigned all available missions.
This allows the media from that country to show lots of pictures of aircraft taking off and cockpit footage of bombs being dropped convincing the domestic audience that their leaders are trying really hard to defeat ISIL. Then after a couple of days the news cycle moves on and the ATO goes back to normal.
By the time the RAF joined the operation in Syria there was only one mission on the ATO. This involved dropping just three 230kg (500lb) bombs on the Omar oil field.
The Omar oil field is essentially an unpopulated patch of desert roughly 20km (12 miles) east of the city of Deir-er-Zour and 80km (50 miles) west of Syria's border with Iraq.
It is roughly 150km (90 miles) south-east of Raqqa and 130km (80 miles) south of the city of Hasakah which is the front-line between ISIL and the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) who are fighting them. It is also roughly 400km (240 miles) from where ISIL's oil export route crosses the border into Turkey.
As such I might even go so far as to say that the routine training exercises the RAF carries out on bombing ranges within the UK are likely to do more damage to ISIL then strikes against empty patches of desert in Syria.
On Thursday (3/12/15) there were no missions assigned to the ATO so neither the RAF nor any air force assigned to CJTFOIR bombed any targets in Syria.
On Friday (4/12/15) - perhaps with the UK media losing interest - another mission to bomb the Omar oil fields was assigned to the ATO and the RAF carried this out dropping eight 230kg (500lb) Paveway bombs.
So no. On Wednesday (2/12/15) the UK Parliament didn't vote to conduct air-strikes against Syria. Instead it voted to allow Turkey to tell the UK that it can't bomb ISIL in Syria.
One interesting thing did come out of the vote though when Prime Minister David Cameron finally confirmed what he meant when he said there were 70,000 moderate ground forces in Syria ready to fight ISIL.
This was a claim first made during the previous Thursday's (26/11/15) debate.
Initially it sounded credible because the Kurdish/Arab/Syriac SDF (Arabic: QSD) are 64,000 strong. Overwhelmingly but not exclusively Sunni-Muslim they represent the main ethnic groups in Syria with the exception of the Turkmen and are a moderate, secular force that has been proven in battle. They are currently located 50km (30 miles) away from ISIL de facto capital of Raqqa.
However in Wednesday's (2/12/15) Prime Minister Cameron announced that he has no intention of working with the SDF/QSD. Instead he plans to magic these 70,000 moderate ground forces out of the fragments of the Free Syrian Army (FSA).
This looks likely to be extremely difficult because when Cameron also said that there are around 70 armed groups currently active in Syria this was an under-estimate of the magnitude of around 100x. There are closer to 7,000 armed groups currently active in Syria.
For the most part these groups operate in much the same way that criminal street gangs operate in places like the US. That is to say they fight primarily for control of a territory in order to profit from that territory through smuggling and the taxation of the hostage population. Sometimes they go to war with each other to expand their territory and sometimes they form temporary alliances to boost their profits.
The big effort to unify these disparate groups has been the formation of the Army of Conquest/Jaish al-Fatah (JAF) coalition. This is led by Al Qaeda's Syrian affiliate Al Nusra Front (ANF) alongside the Islamic Movement of the Freemen of the Levant/Harakat Ahrar ash-Sham al-Islamiyya (FML).
The JAF shares ISIL ideology and is every bit as brutal as them. FSA groups that have joined JAF have happily engaged in sectarian massacres particularly of Shia Muslims and the Druze religious minority. Its prime objective is the overthrow of the Syrian government and it has frequently allied itself with ISIL to achieve that aim.
However that is not to say that all members of the FSA are bad. After all two of the main Arab groups of the SDF/QSD are the Euphrates Volcano/Burkan al-Furat and the Army of Revolution/Jaish al-Thuwar who are both FSA fragments.
The problem is that the brutality of the JAF rarely gives otherwise moderate local FSA fragments the choice of whether to join them to pursue their extremist agenda.
A prime example of this has been around the Syrian town of Maera sits around 30km (20 miles) north of the Syrian city of Aleppo and around 20km (13 miles) south of Syria's border with Turkey.
As I've mentioned before on August 9th (9/8/15) Turkish President/Prime Minister/Emperor Recep Tayyip Erdogan ordered the JAF to withdraw from Maera to hand the territory to ISIL. Henceforth it has been referred to as "Erdogan's Pocket."
However the withdrawal of the ANF and FML sections did not mean that all members of the JAF left Maera. Instead a small FSA fragment were left to fight ISIL alone. With ISIL vastly outnumbering them and using chemical weapons against them this FSA fragment was quickly defeated.
Therefore the whole thing does look like Erdogan, ANF, FML and ISIL getting together and going; "Oh look there's some moderate forces. Let's have them killed."
Erdogan's primary reason for handing Maera to ISIL was to create a panic over ISIL holding position so close to Syria's border with Turkey. This panic would then be used as a pre-text for a Turkish invasion of Syria to re-establish Turkey's supply lines with ISIL that the SDF/QSD have been so successful in cutting.
Despite it being obvious to all what Erdogan's plan is it has been permitted to steadily gather pace since August.
With the close air-support they deny to the SDF/QSD and Iraqi forces CJTFOIR has been helping the Syrian Turkmen Brigades (STB) who are essentially an irregular and therefore illegal branch of the Turkish military advance from their positions in the Latakia Mountains towards Maera.
The STB will then act as the bridgehead for the invasion by regular Turkish forces which is rumoured to be scheduled for the middle of next week.
The problem for Erdogan has been Russia which is simply not going to allow Turkey to continue its support for ISIL.
So Russia has been concentrating its considerable firepower on dislodging the STB from its base in the Latakia Mountains. This is why on November 24th (24/11/15) Turkey shot down a Russian Su-24 as it was on a bombing run over the Latakia Mountains.
Erdogan's gamble was that the international community would rally around him against Russia.
Although US President Barack Obama's support for Erdogan has remained resolute this largely did not happen. In fact rather then being stopped Russia has intensified its attacks on the Latakia Mountains the STB now seem to be in full retreat.
Also Russia has started air-dropping weapons and ammunition to Kurdish Peoples Protection Units (YPG) who are not formally part of the SDF/QSD in what is referred to as the "Afrin Canton" that sits on Syria's border with Turkey north-west of the city of Aleppo.
It seems likely then that with Russian support the YPG will soon move into Maera cutting it off from the Latakia Mountains and finally sealing Erdogan's pocket.
This seems to leave Erdogan with little option other then to invade Syria next week as planned or not at all. So last night Erdogan moved to test the diplomatic waters by invading Iraq where Russia does not currently operate.
A 1000 strong tank battalion backed by a further 200 strong artillery unit have crossed into Iraq's Nineveh province and have taken up positions close to Mosul - ISIL de facto capital in Iraq.
Stressing that they have in no way given permission for this Turkish invasion the Iraqi government have described it as a serious violation of Iraq's sovereignty and intend to protest it in the strongest possible way.
This presents a very serious problem for CJTFOIR because Iraqi forces are currently fighting ISIL on the Anbar and Mosul fronts. If the Turkish troops is not withdrawn Iraq will have to divert troops from the fight against ISIL in order to expel the Turkish forces.
This would put CJTFOIR in direct combat against the nation it is supposed to be protecting from ISIL.
Erdogan's primary objective though is to test the reaction of the international community - particularly the United Nations Security Council (UNSC). If they do not speak up to condemn this invasion of Iraq Erdogan will calculate that they also won't speak up when Turkey invades Syria.
Erdogan has clearly been emboldened by the UNSC's July 31st (31/7/15) failure to condemn his unilateral invocation of Article 51 of the UN Charter to bomb anti-ISIL forces. He has clearly been further emboldened by the idiotic statement 2249 France placed before the UNSC on November 20th (20/11/15) which completely incorrectly stated that Article 51 can be unilaterally invoked while a Chapter 7 resolution is in force.
Erdogan has clearly been further emboldened by Wednesday's vote in the UK Parliament which attempted to legitimise the French state and again incorrectly stated that Article 51 can be unilaterally invoked while a Chapter 7 resolution is in force.
Good luck hearing about any on that on the mainstream news though.
17:30 on 5/12/15 (UK date).
Friday, 4 December 2015
COP21 Terrorism Update #4.
I don't think I ever promised these would be daily.
Today the US FBI has confirmed that during the course of Wednesday's (2/12/15) attacks in San Benardino, California, US the attackers pledged allegiance to the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL). In legal terms this makes them agents of ISIL.
ISIL is a group that is committed to forcing every citizen of the US and the entire world to convert to their perversion of Sunni Islam.
As a result ISIL fully fit the definition of terrorism laid out in Title 22, Chapter 38 of the US criminal code;
"the unlawful use of force and violence against persons or property to intimidate or coerce a government, the civilian population, or any segment thereof, in furtherance of political or social objectives"
Therefore the argument is over. The San Benardino attacks was the worst terror attack committed on US soil since the attacks September 11th 2001 (11/9/01).
In response to this US President Barack Obama is nowhere to be seen. However it is believed that he is currently meeting with gun control activists to develop a strategy to best exploit the attacks to further his political agenda.
In Obama's absence today serious questions have been posed about his handling of the attacks in the form of the media being given a tour of the home of the attackers.
This seems to be a reference to the tour that the media was given of Oscar Pistorious' jail cell on Wednesday (2/12/15). In turn that was a reference to the tour the media were given of Oscar Pistorious' house in mid-October 2015.
The reason that the owner of the rented apartment was able to grant the media this tour was because yesterday (4/12/15) the FBI had released the crime scene.
They had done this because acting on Obama's orders they had been forced to treat the case as an act of workplace violence rather then an act or terrorism.
If the FBI had been treating the case as terrorism they would have fingerprinted and DNA tested every surface in the building in the hope of identifying co-conspirators.
However because Obama had ordered the FBI to investigate this case as an isolated incidence of workplace violence this vital investigative step was not taken and now the media have trampled all over the scene it now cannot be taken.
There is also substantial confusion as to why the grandmother who allowed the attackers to use her home as a bomb factory has not been taken into custody.
France and Belgium have already expressed concern over Obama's attempts to destroy all evidence of the San Benardino terror attacks by announcing they are searching for two co-conspirators in the November 13th (13/11/15) Paris Massacres.
20:55 on 4/12/15 (UK date).
Today the US FBI has confirmed that during the course of Wednesday's (2/12/15) attacks in San Benardino, California, US the attackers pledged allegiance to the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL). In legal terms this makes them agents of ISIL.
ISIL is a group that is committed to forcing every citizen of the US and the entire world to convert to their perversion of Sunni Islam.
As a result ISIL fully fit the definition of terrorism laid out in Title 22, Chapter 38 of the US criminal code;
"the unlawful use of force and violence against persons or property to intimidate or coerce a government, the civilian population, or any segment thereof, in furtherance of political or social objectives"
Therefore the argument is over. The San Benardino attacks was the worst terror attack committed on US soil since the attacks September 11th 2001 (11/9/01).
In response to this US President Barack Obama is nowhere to be seen. However it is believed that he is currently meeting with gun control activists to develop a strategy to best exploit the attacks to further his political agenda.
In Obama's absence today serious questions have been posed about his handling of the attacks in the form of the media being given a tour of the home of the attackers.
This seems to be a reference to the tour that the media was given of Oscar Pistorious' jail cell on Wednesday (2/12/15). In turn that was a reference to the tour the media were given of Oscar Pistorious' house in mid-October 2015.
The reason that the owner of the rented apartment was able to grant the media this tour was because yesterday (4/12/15) the FBI had released the crime scene.
They had done this because acting on Obama's orders they had been forced to treat the case as an act of workplace violence rather then an act or terrorism.
If the FBI had been treating the case as terrorism they would have fingerprinted and DNA tested every surface in the building in the hope of identifying co-conspirators.
However because Obama had ordered the FBI to investigate this case as an isolated incidence of workplace violence this vital investigative step was not taken and now the media have trampled all over the scene it now cannot be taken.
There is also substantial confusion as to why the grandmother who allowed the attackers to use her home as a bomb factory has not been taken into custody.
France and Belgium have already expressed concern over Obama's attempts to destroy all evidence of the San Benardino terror attacks by announcing they are searching for two co-conspirators in the November 13th (13/11/15) Paris Massacres.
20:55 on 4/12/15 (UK date).
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