Yesterday (15/10/15) a parole board in South Africa overturned a decision by Justice Minister Michael Masutha and finally released Oscar Pistorious from prison. This is a saga that dates back to Rihanna's 2013 Diamonds World Tour.
After deciding to include South Africa on that tour the ruling African National Congress (ANC) set up the Oscar Pistorious case. The intention being that the debate over whether or not he was a domestic abuser, whether he had murdered his girlfriend and whether or not he should go to prison would serve as a metaphor for the US' attempts to reunite Rihanna with Chris Brown.
At around the time those 13 South African soldiers were killed in the Central African Republic (CAR) a lot of people started thinking that the ANC had made a huge mistake not only by putting on the Pistorious case but simply by inviting Rihanna over in the first place.
It was at this point that pro-ANC demonstrators took to the streets demanding that Pistorious be convicted and he stopped being a metaphor for Chris Brown and started being a metaphor for me.
While the Pistorious case was reaching it's conclusion the South Africa was also being forced by the UK to drop the Shrien Dewani murder case.
Rather then admitting they'd been forced to drop the Dewani case the ANC doubled down on the Pistorious case demanding that he be given a longer sentence and he be re-tried for murder. The intention being to convince ANC supporters that Zuma doesn't allow rich people to buy their way out of justice.
Last Friday (9/10/15) the UK Crown announced that it would be declining to open a Coroner's Inquest in the Dewani case meaning that South Africa's say on the matter was final. No matter how controversial that may be.
On Wednesday (14/10/15) a temporary bridge collapsed onto a road in Johannesburg, South Africa killing two.
The state of South Africa's roads have long been an obsession for white South Africans of the apartheid era - many of whom now live in the UK. They seem to view every pothole as a sign that the country is on the brink of collapse due to black majority rule.
Mind you South Africa's President Jacob Zuma's constant claims that the nations current electricity crisis is the result of "colonialism" is starting to wear a bit thin.
Also the over-land supply route that the US-led coalition needs to establish between Kurdish areas of Iraq and Syria could be described as; "A Temporary Road Bridge."
As such the initial delay and the eventual announcement of Oscar Pistorious' release was intended to fit into this narrative about race ahead of South Africa's Rugby World Cup quarter-final against, oh wait ... hang on.
Despite the fact their rugby team were knocked out by Wales the English still want to be the belle of the ball so now we've got lots of stories about hidden treasures being found in graveyards and South Africans, Australians and Romanians being caught passing rugby ball shaped babies around in the Cardiff, Wales.
Also in the past week it was announced that Oscar Pistorious' former home is to be turned into a venue for dance parties. In a joke I've totally just worked out.
As for the Para-Olympic sport of Murderball it's only real connection to the game of rugby is that it's what a lot of former rugby players end up doing after a spear tackle or a scrum collapse.
15:35 on 16/10/15 (UK date).
Friday, 16 October 2015
Al Saud Wei.
Between September 28th (28/9/15) and October 3rd (3/10/15) the annual high-level opening of the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) took place. It was largely dominated by the start of Russian military operations against the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) and associated groups in Syria.
However proceedings began with a massive show of force by Saudi Arabia. Firstly they triggered widespread unrest in Bangui - the capital of the Central African Republic (CAR) - which forced the President of the CAR to leave the UNGA early.
To highlight the CAR's importance as a resource rich region Saudi Arabia followed this up triggering the capture of the resource rich Kunduz province of Afghanistan by the Taliban.
Finally they conducted an air-strike against a wedding in Yemen killing 30 civilians to highlight the fact that no-one at the UNGA would dare to stop Saudi Arabia and the Kingdom was free to do as it wished.
China responded to this with a wave of large letter bombs across Guangxi province. Over the course of three days 17 bombs destroyed several residential buildings along with a prison, a railway station a hospital and a shopping mall killing 10 people and wounding 50 in the process.
On the Thursday (1/10/15) Chinese authorities revealed that the bombings had all been the work of one man - Wei Yinyong - who was killed in one of the blasts.
Mr Wei was apparently angry at local authorities and local residents who had denied him permission to set up a company to mine the type of natural resources you find in places like the CAR and Kunduz.
"Wei" of course is pronounced almost identically to the English word "Way." As such the Chinese bombings were intended to highlight to the US what Saudi Arabia is trying to achieve through its waves of Islamist terror. It also puts Mr Wei in the hall of fame of terrorist alongside Glasgow bin Lorry.
Unfortunately it was already proving to be a stressful week for the US and this Chinese intervention seemed to tip them over the edge.
In an effort to enquire what the Chinese were talking about and then to confuse them the US launched into a frenzy of explosions. The highlights were two explosions at chemical processing plants which were references to the issues raised in the Tianjin explosion.
However there were also explosions at an apartment block in Miami and one in Brooklyn, NYC that seemed to borrow heavily from the plot of an episode of the US TV Show "NCIS" entitled "Aliyah." Taking it's name from the Jewish religious practice of returning to Israel the episode explored the links and between rivalries between US and Israeli intelligence.
To make matters worse the UK has been keen to portray itself as the protector of the UK Commonwealth nations that lie between the CAR and Yemen. Chinese premier Xi Jinping will be making a state visit to the UK next week.
As such the UK joined in with a frenzy of explosions of its own all intended to work out what the US and China were thinking and what they were saying to each other.
Anyway the long and the short of it is that yesterday (15/10/15) US President Barack Obama announced that he will be reversing his decision to withdraw US troops from Afghanistan by 2016.
As a result he will be allowed to continue using his largely ceremonial title for another day at least.
14:35 on 16/10/15 (UK date).
However proceedings began with a massive show of force by Saudi Arabia. Firstly they triggered widespread unrest in Bangui - the capital of the Central African Republic (CAR) - which forced the President of the CAR to leave the UNGA early.
To highlight the CAR's importance as a resource rich region Saudi Arabia followed this up triggering the capture of the resource rich Kunduz province of Afghanistan by the Taliban.
Finally they conducted an air-strike against a wedding in Yemen killing 30 civilians to highlight the fact that no-one at the UNGA would dare to stop Saudi Arabia and the Kingdom was free to do as it wished.
China responded to this with a wave of large letter bombs across Guangxi province. Over the course of three days 17 bombs destroyed several residential buildings along with a prison, a railway station a hospital and a shopping mall killing 10 people and wounding 50 in the process.
On the Thursday (1/10/15) Chinese authorities revealed that the bombings had all been the work of one man - Wei Yinyong - who was killed in one of the blasts.
Mr Wei was apparently angry at local authorities and local residents who had denied him permission to set up a company to mine the type of natural resources you find in places like the CAR and Kunduz.
"Wei" of course is pronounced almost identically to the English word "Way." As such the Chinese bombings were intended to highlight to the US what Saudi Arabia is trying to achieve through its waves of Islamist terror. It also puts Mr Wei in the hall of fame of terrorist alongside Glasgow bin Lorry.
Unfortunately it was already proving to be a stressful week for the US and this Chinese intervention seemed to tip them over the edge.
In an effort to enquire what the Chinese were talking about and then to confuse them the US launched into a frenzy of explosions. The highlights were two explosions at chemical processing plants which were references to the issues raised in the Tianjin explosion.
However there were also explosions at an apartment block in Miami and one in Brooklyn, NYC that seemed to borrow heavily from the plot of an episode of the US TV Show "NCIS" entitled "Aliyah." Taking it's name from the Jewish religious practice of returning to Israel the episode explored the links and between rivalries between US and Israeli intelligence.
To make matters worse the UK has been keen to portray itself as the protector of the UK Commonwealth nations that lie between the CAR and Yemen. Chinese premier Xi Jinping will be making a state visit to the UK next week.
As such the UK joined in with a frenzy of explosions of its own all intended to work out what the US and China were thinking and what they were saying to each other.
Anyway the long and the short of it is that yesterday (15/10/15) US President Barack Obama announced that he will be reversing his decision to withdraw US troops from Afghanistan by 2016.
As a result he will be allowed to continue using his largely ceremonial title for another day at least.
14:35 on 16/10/15 (UK date).
Thursday, 15 October 2015
Jerusalem's Latest Blood-Letting.
From October 3rd 2015 (3/10/15) to Wednesday October 14th (14/10/15) there have been 30 attacks on Israelis by Palestinians with the bulk of them taking place where Jerusalem meets the occupied West Bank.
The vast majority of these attacks have been opportunist, ISIL-style lone-wolf attacks in which the attacker approaches their victim stabs them or hits them with a car and often then steals a firearm from their victim in order to attack other passers-by. In almost every single one of these attacks the attacker is almost immediately shot and killed by Israeli security forces.
The attacks have been accompanied by almost constant rioting in Palestinian areas. These stone, petrol bomb and pipe bomb throwers have been met with tear-gas, rubber bullets and live ammunition.
Unusually there doesn't seem to be any Palestinian group co-ordinating these attacks and riots. Instead it just seems to be utterly random violence fuelled by little more then Internet rumours.
However I think its roots can be traced back to the Palestinian riots at the Temple Mount/Al-Asqa complex on September 13th (13/9/15) that marked the start of the Jewish New Year - Rosh Hashanah.
Amongst the Palestinian nationalist movement there has long been a problem with a mentality of viewing suffering as a form of victory. This was made famous after the second intifada (uprising) when the Palestinians declared victory with the words; "Victory For Us is to See [Jews] Suffer."
However the mentality also sees the suffering of Palestinians as a victory. The thinking being that if the Palestinians can show the World how much the Israelis make them suffer then the World will rise up against the Jews. This is why in conflicts between Israel and Palestine there is never a Palestinian militant killed - they're all innocent civilians.
I had hoped that this Martyr Mentality was beginning to die out. As it must for there to be peace.
Unfortunately there then came along the attempts to overthrow the Libyan and Syrian governments. As I've said throughout the purpose of those operations has always been to create a humanitarian atrocity in order for that atrocity to justify an invasion and regime change.
For example if you watch western news coverage of the Syrian conflict you will frequently see footage of the Syria Civil Defence volunteers - the "White Helmets" - heroically rescuing children from buildings that have been cruelly bombed by the evil Assad regime.
What the news is less keen to tell you is that this volunteers are trained in Turkey, co-ordinated out of Dubai in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and they're primary mission is not to rescue people but to generate atrocity propaganda. When they're not doing that they frequently help Al Nusra Front (ANF) carry out massacres.
In Libya there didn't even need to be an atrocity. We simply needed a quote from Muammer Qaddafi saying that he would eliminate the rats in Benghazi which would have been the first time in history that Qaddafi said exactly what he meant.
Since then the Martyr Mentality has come roaring back within Palestinian politics.
For example yesterday Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas appeared on television accusing Israel of summarily executing Ahmed Manasara - a 13 year old by who carried out a terrorist attack in Jerusalem that killed three Israelis. Today Israel responded by releasing a photograph of Manasara in his hospital bed.Very much alive.
With one eye on the opening of the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) that took place at the start of October the Palestinian Authority (PA) instructed local youths to stockpile weapons in Al-Asqa Mosque to attack Jews as the visited Judaism's most holy sight for the start of the religious New Year.
When Israel police moved in to prevent this attack taking place the PA spread a lie that this was evidence that Israel planned to demolish Al-Asqa.
Taking their cue from Libya and Syria the PA clearly assumed that such a rumoured atrocity would see the international community rally to the Palestinians cause and the raising of the Palestinian flag at the UNGA would be accompanied by UN intervention to force the Jews from all of Palestine.
As it turns out the UN delegates who have been working on the Israel/Palestine conflict have been doing so for a very long time meaning that they've seen all these cheap tricks before and know that they only make peace less possible.
So despite Abbas' announcement that he is withdrawing the Palestinians from the Oslo Accords and therefore any peace process with Israel the Israel/Palestine conflict was a non-issue at the UNGA.
However the expectation and fury that the Palestinians had whipped up had to go somewhere and it is that violence we are seeing now.
Good luck trying to stop it.
19:45 on 15/10/15 (UK date).
The vast majority of these attacks have been opportunist, ISIL-style lone-wolf attacks in which the attacker approaches their victim stabs them or hits them with a car and often then steals a firearm from their victim in order to attack other passers-by. In almost every single one of these attacks the attacker is almost immediately shot and killed by Israeli security forces.
The attacks have been accompanied by almost constant rioting in Palestinian areas. These stone, petrol bomb and pipe bomb throwers have been met with tear-gas, rubber bullets and live ammunition.
Unusually there doesn't seem to be any Palestinian group co-ordinating these attacks and riots. Instead it just seems to be utterly random violence fuelled by little more then Internet rumours.
However I think its roots can be traced back to the Palestinian riots at the Temple Mount/Al-Asqa complex on September 13th (13/9/15) that marked the start of the Jewish New Year - Rosh Hashanah.
Amongst the Palestinian nationalist movement there has long been a problem with a mentality of viewing suffering as a form of victory. This was made famous after the second intifada (uprising) when the Palestinians declared victory with the words; "Victory For Us is to See [Jews] Suffer."
However the mentality also sees the suffering of Palestinians as a victory. The thinking being that if the Palestinians can show the World how much the Israelis make them suffer then the World will rise up against the Jews. This is why in conflicts between Israel and Palestine there is never a Palestinian militant killed - they're all innocent civilians.
I had hoped that this Martyr Mentality was beginning to die out. As it must for there to be peace.
Unfortunately there then came along the attempts to overthrow the Libyan and Syrian governments. As I've said throughout the purpose of those operations has always been to create a humanitarian atrocity in order for that atrocity to justify an invasion and regime change.
For example if you watch western news coverage of the Syrian conflict you will frequently see footage of the Syria Civil Defence volunteers - the "White Helmets" - heroically rescuing children from buildings that have been cruelly bombed by the evil Assad regime.
What the news is less keen to tell you is that this volunteers are trained in Turkey, co-ordinated out of Dubai in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and they're primary mission is not to rescue people but to generate atrocity propaganda. When they're not doing that they frequently help Al Nusra Front (ANF) carry out massacres.
In Libya there didn't even need to be an atrocity. We simply needed a quote from Muammer Qaddafi saying that he would eliminate the rats in Benghazi which would have been the first time in history that Qaddafi said exactly what he meant.
Since then the Martyr Mentality has come roaring back within Palestinian politics.
For example yesterday Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas appeared on television accusing Israel of summarily executing Ahmed Manasara - a 13 year old by who carried out a terrorist attack in Jerusalem that killed three Israelis. Today Israel responded by releasing a photograph of Manasara in his hospital bed.Very much alive.
With one eye on the opening of the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) that took place at the start of October the Palestinian Authority (PA) instructed local youths to stockpile weapons in Al-Asqa Mosque to attack Jews as the visited Judaism's most holy sight for the start of the religious New Year.
When Israel police moved in to prevent this attack taking place the PA spread a lie that this was evidence that Israel planned to demolish Al-Asqa.
Taking their cue from Libya and Syria the PA clearly assumed that such a rumoured atrocity would see the international community rally to the Palestinians cause and the raising of the Palestinian flag at the UNGA would be accompanied by UN intervention to force the Jews from all of Palestine.
As it turns out the UN delegates who have been working on the Israel/Palestine conflict have been doing so for a very long time meaning that they've seen all these cheap tricks before and know that they only make peace less possible.
So despite Abbas' announcement that he is withdrawing the Palestinians from the Oslo Accords and therefore any peace process with Israel the Israel/Palestine conflict was a non-issue at the UNGA.
However the expectation and fury that the Palestinians had whipped up had to go somewhere and it is that violence we are seeing now.
Good luck trying to stop it.
19:45 on 15/10/15 (UK date).
Wednesday, 14 October 2015
Operation Featherweight: Month 15, Week 3, Day 4.
Last Friday (9/10/15) the US announced that it is "pausing" its Train & Equip program for what is termed the "Syrian-Arab Opposition."
Although US President Barack Obama declined to deliver promised remarks providing more detail on the change it is believed that Train & Equip is to be replaced with a much smaller program to provide ammunition and what is mysteriously being termed "manoeuvring advice" to Syrian-Arab forces in the north of Syria only.
On Sunday (11/10/15) forces in the north of Syria announced they had formed a coalition to be known as the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF).
This is made up primarily of the Kurdish People's Protection Forces (YPG/J) who are already allied with the Euphrates Volcano/Burkan al-Furat (BAF) fragment of the Free Syrian Army (FSA).
They are to be joined in the SDF by another fragment of the FSA - the Revolutionary Army/Jaish al-Thuwar (JAT) and the Syriac Military Council (MFS) which is a small militia made up of Syria's predominately Christian Assyrian/Syriac minority. The SDF is also backed by two of the areas main tribes.
This is not the first time that such a coalition has been suggested. In fact as far back as the Battle of Kobane which ended in January 2015 Turkish President/Prime Minister/Emperor Recep Tayyip Erdogan was making the formation of such a coalition a pre-condition for the US-led coalition - Combined Joint Task Force: Operation Inherent Resolve (CJTFOIR) - to provide any form of support to the YPG.
Primarily this was simply a blocking tactic being used by Erdogan to prevent the YPG receiving international support without Erdogan being forced to admit that he supports the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) in their war against the YPG and most everybody else.
However there was also a suggestion that this was an attempt to weaken the YPG by diluting their influence as part of a coalition.
Although they're certainly not allies both the YPG and the Syrian government have worked out that their energies are better spent fighting ISIL rather then each other. As a result in cities like Aleppo and up until recently Al-Hasakah you've had this delicate situation whereby the YPG and the Syrian government will control neighbourhoods right next to each other with both sides trying really hard to ignore the other.
The problem with the FSA is that they have always viewed the Syrian government as their primary enemy rather then ISIL. In fact in the south and central parts of Syria the FSA fragments are operating as part of the Army of Conquest/Jaish al-Fatah (JAF) coalition alongside the Al Qaeda affliate Al Nusra Front (ANF) and the Islamic Movement of the Freemen of the Levant/Harakat Ahrar ash-Sham al-Islamiyya (FML/Ahrar ash-Sham) in battles against the Syrian government that certainly benefit ISIL.
Therefore there is a concern that as part of a coalition the FSA would force the YPG into battle against the Syrian government in places like Aleppo City and Al-Hasakah City. This would weaken both the Syrian government and the YPG making it easier for ISIL to defeat both those forces in other areas of the country.
Beyond that specific problem forming military coalitions is always complex and fraught with egos. The first thing you've got to do is establish a Supreme Commander that everybody in the coalition takes their orders from.
In this case that is clearly going to have to be a member of the YPG/J because they make up some 57,000 of the SDF's roughly 64,000 strength. Also the current female YPG/J Supreme Commander has time and time again proved herself to be extremely capable and highly competent.
Once you've established a Supreme Commander you've got to decide how each element of the coalition will operate. For example will the FSA fragments remain as a separate force under the Supreme Commander with their own officers or will YPG/J officers be put in control of FSA units.
Following the Battle of Kobane the Euphrates Volcano/Burkan al-Furat (BAF) were able to integrate themselves with the YPG/J command structure and the two have gone onto have a hugely successfully partnership. However at the same time the Army of Revolution/Jaish al-Thuwar (JAT) were not able to reach such an accommodation with the YPG/J.
One of the first challenges the SDF will face is to see if the YPG/J and JAT have been able to overcome their differences.
Into this mix the US on Monday (12/10/15) air-dropped in 45 tonnes of small arms ammunition and grenades to the Jaish al-Thuwar part of the SDF coalition near Hasakah city.
In itself this was rather odd because Hasakah city really sits on the south-eastern border of this vast buffer-zone that Kurdish forces have created across northern Iraq and Syria. Therefore if the US wanted to supply equipment to Hasakah city or even now Sarrin on the banks of the Euphrates River they could simply drive it in by road from Iraq.
The reason why the US opted to re-create the dramatic air-drops that were seen during the Battle of Kobane was to promote discussion with Turkey who of course blocked the supply of Kobane by road.
By delivering the weapons to JAT specifically the US was trying to strengthen their position within the SDF command structure by giving them resources to bargain with.
However despite the US' insistence to the contrary I don't think anyone seriously believes that none of those bullets are going to end up in YPG rifles. That indicates to Turkey that the US is now on the brink of arming the YPG directly regardless of Erdogan's objections.
As with Friday's (9/10/15) announcement on Train & Equip rather then taking this indecisive, will-we-won't-we approach what I would have done in this situation would be to act decisively and effectively plant a flag in the situation by announcing that the US is now supplying the YPG directly.
That would force Erdogan to either accept the new reality or announce that he is putting his country in direct confrontation with the international community to support the people who carried out Saturday's (10/10/15) bombing in Ankara - the worst terror attack in Turkey's history.
Noticing the US' mistake Russia Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov attempted to step into help. Yesterday (13/10/15) Lavrov declared that there was no doubt the weapons the US had air-dropped would fall into the hands of terrorists. However he forgot to clarify whether by "terrorists" he meant ISIL whom most people consider to be terrorists or the YPG whom Erdogan considers to be terrorists.
Despite Lavrov's intervention the US' indecisive approach has only succeeded in handing the initiative in the negotiation back to Erdogan. Yesterday (13/10/15) a 'suspicious package' was discovered at the site of the Ankara bombing provoking alarm and quietly suggesting that Turkey was not happy about the air-drop.
Today (14/10/15) Turkey summoned the Ambassadors from both the US and Russia to joint meeting on the air-drop giving Turkey are front-row seat to any discussions that might be going on between the leaders of the two air-coalitions currently operating in Syria.
Going back to the Ankara bombing by Sunday (11/10/15) the Turks had given up on their efforts to convince us it was the Kurds who had bombed themselves instead blamed the attack on ISIL.
Today (14/10/15) Erdogan announced that he is ordering the State Supervisory Council (DDK) to investigate the bombing. The DDK operates outside of Turkey's formal security apparatus and is controlled directly by Erdogan's President's office. This was followed almost immediately by the sacking by Erdogan of three senior police officers including the Chief of Police in Ankara.
These moves seem to be an attempt by Erdogan to shift responsibility for the bombing away from himself and his Justice & Development Party (AKP) and onto the deep state. Although members to the deep state are not automatically members of the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) they do tend to vote for the MHP come election time.
The deep state/MHP quickly moved to shift the blame from themselves back onto the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) with the arrest of two people on the fringes of the PKK who Tweeted vague warnings about the Ankara bombing on Friday (9/10/15) evening. The implication being that because the pair had prior knowledge they must have carried out the bombing.
The problem with this is that although no-one agrees with them the PKK view south-east Turkey as the independent nation of Kurdistan and themselves as the protectors of that nation. So not only do they have an armed wing they also have an intelligence wing similar to Britain's MI5, the American CIA or the Turkish MIT.
With the PKK fighting ISIL in both Syria and Iraq where they are being bombed by Turkey this intelligence wing has become very focused on ISIL and what they are planning. For example in response to the July 20th (20/7/15) Suruc bombing the PKK killed an ISIL fighter - Mursel Gul - in Istanbul after tracking him from the battle fields of Syria to his refuge in Turkey.
Therefore it is entirely likely that the PKK picked up some indication that something was going to happen in Ankara but this stopped short of being the type of actionable intelligence they could have used to go public and cancel the march or eliminate the attackers in advance.
It would be enough though for people on the fringes of the PKK intelligence wing to speculate vaguely about on Twitter.
The US shift towards arming the YPG hasn't suddenly happened in response to Russia joining the fight in Syria. Instead it's something the US has been indecisively hinting at since Turkey formally joined CJTFOIR.
Rather underlining Obama's inability to successfully negotiate with Erdogan the US has been close to accepting as a condition of that support that it is used to launch a YPG assault on Raqqa - ISIL's de facto capital in Syria which sits just 50km (30 miles) south of the YPG buffer-zone.
As we've seen from the Battle of Kobane, the Iraqi Security Forces' (ISF) struggle to liberate Tikrit and their failed operations to liberate Baiji, Ramadi and Fallujah urban warfare is utterly brutal. All a defending force really needs to do is place a machine gun atop of a tall building and one or two fighters can cut down hundreds of attackers as they are channelled through the narrow streets.
Although the YPG/J has a force of around 57,000 part of that force is located in what is termed the "Afrin Canton" in the north-west of Syria's Aleppo province right on the border with Turkey. They are almost completely cut off from another section of YPG/J forces in Aleppo City and both groups are almost entirely cut off from the bulk of the YPG/J force located in the north-eastern buffer-zone.
In order to maintain that buffer-zone the YPG/J have to not only man a defensive perimeter around the buffer-zone but also mount patrols and man check-points within it to prevent ISIL infiltrating the area. As a result they certainly don't have the manpower to liberate a city of 200,000 people which is being held by a highly motivated enemy that has been preparing for an assault for months.
As a result I can only view any attempt to get the YPG/J to attack Raqqa either as part of the SDF or otherwise as a suicide mission. The intention being to kill enough of the YPG/J that they are unable to maintain the buffer-zone creating a crisis which will provide a pre-text for Turkey to invade to re-establish ISIL's supply lines.
My position on this matter will not change until I am satisfied that the YPG enjoys the full support of CJTFOIR. That means YPG fighter acting as forward air controllers with the ability to instantly call in air-strikes against ISIL positions.
It also means the establishment of a reliable supply routes over land from Iraq into Syria. Those routes must used to massively increase the firepower of the YPG. For example I would not contemplate an assault on Raqqa until the YPG have tanks or other such heavy armoured vehicles.
In fact I would not plan for a YPG assault on Raqqa at all.
That though obviously puts me in the rather difficult position of trying to explain the anti-ISIL strategy on the Internet for ISIL to read.
However it is well established military doctrine that you attack from the point where your forces are strongest. CJTFOIR's forces are strongest in Iraq meaning that any operation to liberate Raqqa will have to come from there with the YPG/SDF acting in support role preventing ISIL from fleeing to the north.
Obviously in order to act from Iraq ISIL first need to be cleared out of Iraq. Unfortunately President Obama has spent the last 14 months resisting this in every way possible. As a result CJTFOIR is many months from being in a position to launch any type of operation against Raqqa.
On Sunday (12/10/15) there were signs that the Iraq part of the operation was beginning to get back on track with the Iraqi announcement of an ISF operation to finally liberate the areas around Tikrit/Salahudin once and for all.
The assumption being that this would see the ISF pause the operation to liberate Ramadi in order to concentrate their efforts on Tikrit. Then once the Tikrit task is complete the ISF would be able to concentrate its forces on Ramadi.
Unfortunately the US has today come out to put pressure on the ISF to intensify their Ramadi operation at the same time they conduct the Tikrit operation. I can only view this as an attempt to divide the ISF's forces in an effort to make sure both operations fail slowing down the anti-ISIL operation further.
So right now looking at President Obama's anti-ISIL strategy I'm getting the distinct impression of a man whose trying to put his shoes on before his trousers.
17:00 on 14/10/15 (UK date).
Although US President Barack Obama declined to deliver promised remarks providing more detail on the change it is believed that Train & Equip is to be replaced with a much smaller program to provide ammunition and what is mysteriously being termed "manoeuvring advice" to Syrian-Arab forces in the north of Syria only.
On Sunday (11/10/15) forces in the north of Syria announced they had formed a coalition to be known as the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF).
This is made up primarily of the Kurdish People's Protection Forces (YPG/J) who are already allied with the Euphrates Volcano/Burkan al-Furat (BAF) fragment of the Free Syrian Army (FSA).
They are to be joined in the SDF by another fragment of the FSA - the Revolutionary Army/Jaish al-Thuwar (JAT) and the Syriac Military Council (MFS) which is a small militia made up of Syria's predominately Christian Assyrian/Syriac minority. The SDF is also backed by two of the areas main tribes.
This is not the first time that such a coalition has been suggested. In fact as far back as the Battle of Kobane which ended in January 2015 Turkish President/Prime Minister/Emperor Recep Tayyip Erdogan was making the formation of such a coalition a pre-condition for the US-led coalition - Combined Joint Task Force: Operation Inherent Resolve (CJTFOIR) - to provide any form of support to the YPG.
Primarily this was simply a blocking tactic being used by Erdogan to prevent the YPG receiving international support without Erdogan being forced to admit that he supports the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) in their war against the YPG and most everybody else.
However there was also a suggestion that this was an attempt to weaken the YPG by diluting their influence as part of a coalition.
Although they're certainly not allies both the YPG and the Syrian government have worked out that their energies are better spent fighting ISIL rather then each other. As a result in cities like Aleppo and up until recently Al-Hasakah you've had this delicate situation whereby the YPG and the Syrian government will control neighbourhoods right next to each other with both sides trying really hard to ignore the other.
The problem with the FSA is that they have always viewed the Syrian government as their primary enemy rather then ISIL. In fact in the south and central parts of Syria the FSA fragments are operating as part of the Army of Conquest/Jaish al-Fatah (JAF) coalition alongside the Al Qaeda affliate Al Nusra Front (ANF) and the Islamic Movement of the Freemen of the Levant/Harakat Ahrar ash-Sham al-Islamiyya (FML/Ahrar ash-Sham) in battles against the Syrian government that certainly benefit ISIL.
Therefore there is a concern that as part of a coalition the FSA would force the YPG into battle against the Syrian government in places like Aleppo City and Al-Hasakah City. This would weaken both the Syrian government and the YPG making it easier for ISIL to defeat both those forces in other areas of the country.
Beyond that specific problem forming military coalitions is always complex and fraught with egos. The first thing you've got to do is establish a Supreme Commander that everybody in the coalition takes their orders from.
In this case that is clearly going to have to be a member of the YPG/J because they make up some 57,000 of the SDF's roughly 64,000 strength. Also the current female YPG/J Supreme Commander has time and time again proved herself to be extremely capable and highly competent.
Once you've established a Supreme Commander you've got to decide how each element of the coalition will operate. For example will the FSA fragments remain as a separate force under the Supreme Commander with their own officers or will YPG/J officers be put in control of FSA units.
Following the Battle of Kobane the Euphrates Volcano/Burkan al-Furat (BAF) were able to integrate themselves with the YPG/J command structure and the two have gone onto have a hugely successfully partnership. However at the same time the Army of Revolution/Jaish al-Thuwar (JAT) were not able to reach such an accommodation with the YPG/J.
One of the first challenges the SDF will face is to see if the YPG/J and JAT have been able to overcome their differences.
Into this mix the US on Monday (12/10/15) air-dropped in 45 tonnes of small arms ammunition and grenades to the Jaish al-Thuwar part of the SDF coalition near Hasakah city.
In itself this was rather odd because Hasakah city really sits on the south-eastern border of this vast buffer-zone that Kurdish forces have created across northern Iraq and Syria. Therefore if the US wanted to supply equipment to Hasakah city or even now Sarrin on the banks of the Euphrates River they could simply drive it in by road from Iraq.
The reason why the US opted to re-create the dramatic air-drops that were seen during the Battle of Kobane was to promote discussion with Turkey who of course blocked the supply of Kobane by road.
By delivering the weapons to JAT specifically the US was trying to strengthen their position within the SDF command structure by giving them resources to bargain with.
However despite the US' insistence to the contrary I don't think anyone seriously believes that none of those bullets are going to end up in YPG rifles. That indicates to Turkey that the US is now on the brink of arming the YPG directly regardless of Erdogan's objections.
As with Friday's (9/10/15) announcement on Train & Equip rather then taking this indecisive, will-we-won't-we approach what I would have done in this situation would be to act decisively and effectively plant a flag in the situation by announcing that the US is now supplying the YPG directly.
That would force Erdogan to either accept the new reality or announce that he is putting his country in direct confrontation with the international community to support the people who carried out Saturday's (10/10/15) bombing in Ankara - the worst terror attack in Turkey's history.
Noticing the US' mistake Russia Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov attempted to step into help. Yesterday (13/10/15) Lavrov declared that there was no doubt the weapons the US had air-dropped would fall into the hands of terrorists. However he forgot to clarify whether by "terrorists" he meant ISIL whom most people consider to be terrorists or the YPG whom Erdogan considers to be terrorists.
Despite Lavrov's intervention the US' indecisive approach has only succeeded in handing the initiative in the negotiation back to Erdogan. Yesterday (13/10/15) a 'suspicious package' was discovered at the site of the Ankara bombing provoking alarm and quietly suggesting that Turkey was not happy about the air-drop.
Today (14/10/15) Turkey summoned the Ambassadors from both the US and Russia to joint meeting on the air-drop giving Turkey are front-row seat to any discussions that might be going on between the leaders of the two air-coalitions currently operating in Syria.
Going back to the Ankara bombing by Sunday (11/10/15) the Turks had given up on their efforts to convince us it was the Kurds who had bombed themselves instead blamed the attack on ISIL.
Today (14/10/15) Erdogan announced that he is ordering the State Supervisory Council (DDK) to investigate the bombing. The DDK operates outside of Turkey's formal security apparatus and is controlled directly by Erdogan's President's office. This was followed almost immediately by the sacking by Erdogan of three senior police officers including the Chief of Police in Ankara.
These moves seem to be an attempt by Erdogan to shift responsibility for the bombing away from himself and his Justice & Development Party (AKP) and onto the deep state. Although members to the deep state are not automatically members of the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) they do tend to vote for the MHP come election time.
The deep state/MHP quickly moved to shift the blame from themselves back onto the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) with the arrest of two people on the fringes of the PKK who Tweeted vague warnings about the Ankara bombing on Friday (9/10/15) evening. The implication being that because the pair had prior knowledge they must have carried out the bombing.
The problem with this is that although no-one agrees with them the PKK view south-east Turkey as the independent nation of Kurdistan and themselves as the protectors of that nation. So not only do they have an armed wing they also have an intelligence wing similar to Britain's MI5, the American CIA or the Turkish MIT.
With the PKK fighting ISIL in both Syria and Iraq where they are being bombed by Turkey this intelligence wing has become very focused on ISIL and what they are planning. For example in response to the July 20th (20/7/15) Suruc bombing the PKK killed an ISIL fighter - Mursel Gul - in Istanbul after tracking him from the battle fields of Syria to his refuge in Turkey.
Therefore it is entirely likely that the PKK picked up some indication that something was going to happen in Ankara but this stopped short of being the type of actionable intelligence they could have used to go public and cancel the march or eliminate the attackers in advance.
It would be enough though for people on the fringes of the PKK intelligence wing to speculate vaguely about on Twitter.
The US shift towards arming the YPG hasn't suddenly happened in response to Russia joining the fight in Syria. Instead it's something the US has been indecisively hinting at since Turkey formally joined CJTFOIR.
Rather underlining Obama's inability to successfully negotiate with Erdogan the US has been close to accepting as a condition of that support that it is used to launch a YPG assault on Raqqa - ISIL's de facto capital in Syria which sits just 50km (30 miles) south of the YPG buffer-zone.
As we've seen from the Battle of Kobane, the Iraqi Security Forces' (ISF) struggle to liberate Tikrit and their failed operations to liberate Baiji, Ramadi and Fallujah urban warfare is utterly brutal. All a defending force really needs to do is place a machine gun atop of a tall building and one or two fighters can cut down hundreds of attackers as they are channelled through the narrow streets.
Although the YPG/J has a force of around 57,000 part of that force is located in what is termed the "Afrin Canton" in the north-west of Syria's Aleppo province right on the border with Turkey. They are almost completely cut off from another section of YPG/J forces in Aleppo City and both groups are almost entirely cut off from the bulk of the YPG/J force located in the north-eastern buffer-zone.
In order to maintain that buffer-zone the YPG/J have to not only man a defensive perimeter around the buffer-zone but also mount patrols and man check-points within it to prevent ISIL infiltrating the area. As a result they certainly don't have the manpower to liberate a city of 200,000 people which is being held by a highly motivated enemy that has been preparing for an assault for months.
As a result I can only view any attempt to get the YPG/J to attack Raqqa either as part of the SDF or otherwise as a suicide mission. The intention being to kill enough of the YPG/J that they are unable to maintain the buffer-zone creating a crisis which will provide a pre-text for Turkey to invade to re-establish ISIL's supply lines.
My position on this matter will not change until I am satisfied that the YPG enjoys the full support of CJTFOIR. That means YPG fighter acting as forward air controllers with the ability to instantly call in air-strikes against ISIL positions.
It also means the establishment of a reliable supply routes over land from Iraq into Syria. Those routes must used to massively increase the firepower of the YPG. For example I would not contemplate an assault on Raqqa until the YPG have tanks or other such heavy armoured vehicles.
In fact I would not plan for a YPG assault on Raqqa at all.
That though obviously puts me in the rather difficult position of trying to explain the anti-ISIL strategy on the Internet for ISIL to read.
However it is well established military doctrine that you attack from the point where your forces are strongest. CJTFOIR's forces are strongest in Iraq meaning that any operation to liberate Raqqa will have to come from there with the YPG/SDF acting in support role preventing ISIL from fleeing to the north.
Obviously in order to act from Iraq ISIL first need to be cleared out of Iraq. Unfortunately President Obama has spent the last 14 months resisting this in every way possible. As a result CJTFOIR is many months from being in a position to launch any type of operation against Raqqa.
On Sunday (12/10/15) there were signs that the Iraq part of the operation was beginning to get back on track with the Iraqi announcement of an ISF operation to finally liberate the areas around Tikrit/Salahudin once and for all.
The assumption being that this would see the ISF pause the operation to liberate Ramadi in order to concentrate their efforts on Tikrit. Then once the Tikrit task is complete the ISF would be able to concentrate its forces on Ramadi.
Unfortunately the US has today come out to put pressure on the ISF to intensify their Ramadi operation at the same time they conduct the Tikrit operation. I can only view this as an attempt to divide the ISF's forces in an effort to make sure both operations fail slowing down the anti-ISIL operation further.
So right now looking at President Obama's anti-ISIL strategy I'm getting the distinct impression of a man whose trying to put his shoes on before his trousers.
17:00 on 14/10/15 (UK date).
Tuesday, 13 October 2015
Operation Featherweight: Month 15, Week 3, Day 3.
Backed by Russian air-support Syrian government forces have continued their offensive on the borders between Latakia, Aleppo, Homs and Hama provinces.
Building on Friday's (9/10/15) liberation of the village of Al-Basha - around 16km (9.5 miles) north of the City of Homs and around 36km (22 miles) south of the City of Hama - they have also liberated the villages of Jub-al-Ahmar and Kafr-Dulbah which sit around 3km (1.8 miles) and 10km (6 miles) respectively to the west of Al-Basha.
Further to the north the Syrian government have also liberated the town of Khan Sheikhun which sits on the M5 motorway around 35km (21 miles) north of the City of Hama and around 60km (36 miles) south of the City of Idlib. They have also captured the village of Kafr Nabuda which sits around 15km (10 miles) to the west of Khan Sheikhun. This gives the Syrian government control of the strategically important Sahl al-Ghab plain.
Both of these areas were previously held by the Army of Conquest/Jaish al-Fatah (JAF) coalition which is led by Al Qaeda's Syrian affiliate Al Nusra Front (ANF) and the Islamic Movement of the Freemen of the Levant/Harakat Ahrar ash-Sham al-Islamiyya (FML/Ahrar ash-Sham).
Saudi Arabia in particular seems very committed to halting this latest advance by the Syrian government. Reports have begun to emerge that in the 6 days since the operation began some 500 US made Tube-launched, Optically-tracked, Wire-guided (TOW) anti-tank weapons have been delivered to JAF from the Saudi stock-pile of some 13,000 such weapons. Numerous videos have also begun to appear on the Internet of these weapons being used by JAF against Syrian government forces.
Although I don't have the documents in front of me I strongly suspect that this transfer of TOW's to JAF violates the terms of the export license granted to Saudi Arabia that states that Saudi Arabia must be the end user of the weapons.
Around 56km (34 miles) to the north-east of Idlib city the Kurdish People's Protection Units (YPG) continue to battle both the ANF and FML sections of the JAF coalition in the City of Aleppo. Although there have been no reported clashes in the two days since my last post on the subject the YPG have intensified checkpoints and patrols within Aleppo city to deter JAF attacks.
Around 105km (62 miles) to the north-east of Aleppo the YPG have continued to strengthen the 33,000km^2 (20,000mile^2) buffer-zone that stretches from the town of Sarrin on the banks of the Euphrates River all the way to Iraq's border with Iran. The main focus has been on increasing check-points and patrols to deter infiltration by the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) alongside mine clearing operations around the village of Ain Issa which sits just 50km (30 miles) north of ISIL de facto capital in Syria Raqqa.
The big development from the YPG controlled north-east is Sunday's (11/10/15) formation of a new coalition known as the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). Alongside the YPG this includes the Euphrates Volcano/Burkan al-Furat and Revolutionary Army/Jaish al-Thuwar fragments of the Free Syrian Army (FSA) and the Syriac Military Council (MFS) - a primarily Syriac Christian militia along with two local tribes. In total this new force has around 60,000 men/women at arms.
Over Sunday (11/10/15) night/Monday (12/10/15) morning the US air-dropped some 45 tonnes of small arms ammunition and grenades to the SDF. Officially this weaponry was only for the use by the Burkan al-Furat and Jaish al-Thuwar parts of the SDF coalition but with them making up just 7% of the SDF while the YPG makes up 80% it seems unlikely that the US can guarantee that some of these weapons won't fall into the YPG's hands.
As such these seems to be a further indication that the US is leaning towards arming the YPG directly. However it is US President Barack Obama's pathological fear of confrontation with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan that is preventing it from doing so.
This could become a serious problem because there seems to be a desire on the part of the FSA forces to lead the YPG into a full-scale attempt to liberate Raqqa itself. You only need to look at the Iraqi Security Forces (ISF) efforts to liberates cities such as Tikrit, Ramadi and Fallujah to see that the YPG is in no-way equipped for such a task.
Therefore such an effort would be a suicide mission intended to destroy the YPG so they can be replaced by a Turkish invasion force. The US air-drop could also be viewed as an attempt to make this a reality by strengthening FSA voices within the SDF coalition.
I will come back tomorrow to offer a more in depth assessment of the wider situation. Unfortunately right now I lack the mental wherewithal to do that properly and this is one of those situations where a half-assed job simply won't do.
17:20 on 13/10/15 (UK date).
Building on Friday's (9/10/15) liberation of the village of Al-Basha - around 16km (9.5 miles) north of the City of Homs and around 36km (22 miles) south of the City of Hama - they have also liberated the villages of Jub-al-Ahmar and Kafr-Dulbah which sit around 3km (1.8 miles) and 10km (6 miles) respectively to the west of Al-Basha.
Further to the north the Syrian government have also liberated the town of Khan Sheikhun which sits on the M5 motorway around 35km (21 miles) north of the City of Hama and around 60km (36 miles) south of the City of Idlib. They have also captured the village of Kafr Nabuda which sits around 15km (10 miles) to the west of Khan Sheikhun. This gives the Syrian government control of the strategically important Sahl al-Ghab plain.
Both of these areas were previously held by the Army of Conquest/Jaish al-Fatah (JAF) coalition which is led by Al Qaeda's Syrian affiliate Al Nusra Front (ANF) and the Islamic Movement of the Freemen of the Levant/Harakat Ahrar ash-Sham al-Islamiyya (FML/Ahrar ash-Sham).
Saudi Arabia in particular seems very committed to halting this latest advance by the Syrian government. Reports have begun to emerge that in the 6 days since the operation began some 500 US made Tube-launched, Optically-tracked, Wire-guided (TOW) anti-tank weapons have been delivered to JAF from the Saudi stock-pile of some 13,000 such weapons. Numerous videos have also begun to appear on the Internet of these weapons being used by JAF against Syrian government forces.
Although I don't have the documents in front of me I strongly suspect that this transfer of TOW's to JAF violates the terms of the export license granted to Saudi Arabia that states that Saudi Arabia must be the end user of the weapons.
Around 56km (34 miles) to the north-east of Idlib city the Kurdish People's Protection Units (YPG) continue to battle both the ANF and FML sections of the JAF coalition in the City of Aleppo. Although there have been no reported clashes in the two days since my last post on the subject the YPG have intensified checkpoints and patrols within Aleppo city to deter JAF attacks.
Around 105km (62 miles) to the north-east of Aleppo the YPG have continued to strengthen the 33,000km^2 (20,000mile^2) buffer-zone that stretches from the town of Sarrin on the banks of the Euphrates River all the way to Iraq's border with Iran. The main focus has been on increasing check-points and patrols to deter infiltration by the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) alongside mine clearing operations around the village of Ain Issa which sits just 50km (30 miles) north of ISIL de facto capital in Syria Raqqa.
The big development from the YPG controlled north-east is Sunday's (11/10/15) formation of a new coalition known as the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). Alongside the YPG this includes the Euphrates Volcano/Burkan al-Furat and Revolutionary Army/Jaish al-Thuwar fragments of the Free Syrian Army (FSA) and the Syriac Military Council (MFS) - a primarily Syriac Christian militia along with two local tribes. In total this new force has around 60,000 men/women at arms.
Over Sunday (11/10/15) night/Monday (12/10/15) morning the US air-dropped some 45 tonnes of small arms ammunition and grenades to the SDF. Officially this weaponry was only for the use by the Burkan al-Furat and Jaish al-Thuwar parts of the SDF coalition but with them making up just 7% of the SDF while the YPG makes up 80% it seems unlikely that the US can guarantee that some of these weapons won't fall into the YPG's hands.
As such these seems to be a further indication that the US is leaning towards arming the YPG directly. However it is US President Barack Obama's pathological fear of confrontation with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan that is preventing it from doing so.
This could become a serious problem because there seems to be a desire on the part of the FSA forces to lead the YPG into a full-scale attempt to liberate Raqqa itself. You only need to look at the Iraqi Security Forces (ISF) efforts to liberates cities such as Tikrit, Ramadi and Fallujah to see that the YPG is in no-way equipped for such a task.
Therefore such an effort would be a suicide mission intended to destroy the YPG so they can be replaced by a Turkish invasion force. The US air-drop could also be viewed as an attempt to make this a reality by strengthening FSA voices within the SDF coalition.
I will come back tomorrow to offer a more in depth assessment of the wider situation. Unfortunately right now I lack the mental wherewithal to do that properly and this is one of those situations where a half-assed job simply won't do.
17:20 on 13/10/15 (UK date).
MH17 Final Report: Prima Facie.
Today (13/10/15) the Dutch Safety Board (DSB) released it's final report into the the crash of Malaysia Airlines flight MH17 over Ukraine on July 17th 2014 (17/7/14). As always with this type of report the purpose is not to apportion blame but to determine the exact circumstances of the crash.
As with the European refugee crisis I think that my time is better spent dealing with the root cause of the problem rather then rushing around after each of its consequences. Therefore I have not read the 279 page report and it is unlikely that I ever will.
However the main finding of the report laid out in sections 4 & 5 is that despite there being 14 aircraft shot down in the area in the month prior to the crash of MH17, there being 28 Notice To Air Men (NOTAM) issued for the region and one formal letter of warning from the International Civil Aviation Organisation (ICAO) the Ukrainian government in Kiev refused to declare the area a combat zone and shut down the air-space to civilian traffic.
This failure placed the Ukrainian government in Kiev in violation of it's obligation to "ensure the safety [...]of international civilian aviation" as laid out in the 1947 Chicago Convention on International Civil Aviation.
This failure created a situation whereby MH17 was struck by a Surface to Air Missile (SAM) fired from a BUK-style launcher. However the report was not able to determine if the specific missile was a 9M38M1 which is only available to the Kiev forces or the 9M314M which is only available to Russian forces. Both missiles use the same type of warhead.
The Kiev controlled Air Traffic Control (ATC) in Ukraine at the time operates with a clear chain of command running from the President down to front-line ATC operators. Within this structure there are named individuals who have specific responsibilities to ensure that the air-space is being operated in accordance with the Chicago Convention - essentially a duty of care to the civilian airline passengers.
As such it is clear that the next step of the Dutch criminal investigation which is running parallel to the DSB investigation is to arrest those named individuals on 298 counts of murder.
They can then be interviewed to determine whether their failure to close air-space over the crash site was the result of criminal negligence or the result of political pressure. Perhaps pressure intended to engineer just this type of tragedy.
Take a wild guess a which section of the report the western media are choosing to focus on though.
15:40 on 13/10/15 (UK date).
As with the European refugee crisis I think that my time is better spent dealing with the root cause of the problem rather then rushing around after each of its consequences. Therefore I have not read the 279 page report and it is unlikely that I ever will.
However the main finding of the report laid out in sections 4 & 5 is that despite there being 14 aircraft shot down in the area in the month prior to the crash of MH17, there being 28 Notice To Air Men (NOTAM) issued for the region and one formal letter of warning from the International Civil Aviation Organisation (ICAO) the Ukrainian government in Kiev refused to declare the area a combat zone and shut down the air-space to civilian traffic.
This failure placed the Ukrainian government in Kiev in violation of it's obligation to "ensure the safety [...]of international civilian aviation" as laid out in the 1947 Chicago Convention on International Civil Aviation.
This failure created a situation whereby MH17 was struck by a Surface to Air Missile (SAM) fired from a BUK-style launcher. However the report was not able to determine if the specific missile was a 9M38M1 which is only available to the Kiev forces or the 9M314M which is only available to Russian forces. Both missiles use the same type of warhead.
The Kiev controlled Air Traffic Control (ATC) in Ukraine at the time operates with a clear chain of command running from the President down to front-line ATC operators. Within this structure there are named individuals who have specific responsibilities to ensure that the air-space is being operated in accordance with the Chicago Convention - essentially a duty of care to the civilian airline passengers.
As such it is clear that the next step of the Dutch criminal investigation which is running parallel to the DSB investigation is to arrest those named individuals on 298 counts of murder.
They can then be interviewed to determine whether their failure to close air-space over the crash site was the result of criminal negligence or the result of political pressure. Perhaps pressure intended to engineer just this type of tragedy.
Take a wild guess a which section of the report the western media are choosing to focus on though.
15:40 on 13/10/15 (UK date).
Monday, 12 October 2015
Something About Rugby.
This past Saturday (10/10/15) and Sunday (11/10/15) has seen the final pool/group games in the 2015 Rugby Union World Cup. These obviously decided who would play whom in the quarter finals and who would go home.
The build-up began on Friday (9/10/15) with the news that the UK Crown would not be holding a Coroners Inquest into the death of Anni Dewani (nee; Hindocha). This was the latest instalment in a long running saga that began in Cape Town, South Africa in November 2010.
Essentially massive homosexual Shrien Dewani was pressured into marrying Anni Dewani. On their honeymoon in South Africa in November 2010 he paid hitmen to kill Anni Dewani freeing him from the marriage and allowing to live as a socially acceptable widower rather then a suspiciously single man who seemed to have no interest in women.
Although I think this was just a private citizen acting as a private citizen it happened just before the start of the COP16 climate change meeting in Cancun, Mexico. By that point we already knew that the next year's COP17 Summit would be held in Durban, South Africa. The Durban platform that was devised at COP17 is the basis for the new climate change agreement that is set to be signed in just 49 days at COP21 in Paris, France.
Both in terms of the security plan for COP17 and for the sake of their tourism industry generally the South Africans were initially very keen to bring Shrien Dewani to justice to send the message that South Africa isn't a country you can visit to murder people and get away with it.
Unfortunately the story was too much of an opportunity for the UK to resist. For example the Dewani family are based in Bristol, UK. Although I think I only visited the place once I have quite strong ties to Bristol.
Also while the Dewanis are British citizens and the Hindochas are Swedish citizens they are both ethnically Indian and have strong ties to that nation which is very important in climate change negotiations. Added to that South Africa actually has a large ethnically Indian population and barely a week seems to go by when the ruling African National Congress (ANC) party aren't embroiled in some corruption scandal or other involving wealthy Indian families.
As a result the UK stepped in to protect Shrien Dewani from justice. Following a 4 year extradition process South Africa finally bowed to pressure from the UK and dropped the case in November 2014. The request for a Coroners Inquest was the Hindocha family attempting to re-open the case.
If the England rugby had gone on to meet the South Africa rugby team in the quarter-finals the timing of the decision would have been excellent preparation as we were left speculating over whether the UK was protecting South Africa for the decision it imposed on them or criticising them for the decision they imposed on them.
As it turns out England didn't qualify so the story was left to be recycled as the British Crown backing South Africa in its quarter final against Wales who defeated England knocking them out of the competition.
Unfortunately Ireland decided to get in on the action with the deaths of 10 people in a fire at the Carrickmines gypsy/traveller site in County Dublin. Back in 2011 the UK got in a lot of trouble - including with the United Nations (UN) - over the eviction of the Dale Farm gypsy/traveller site in Essex. Also in my younger, wilder days I have lived on the fringes of that secretive world.
What Ireland was looking for was help defeating France to avoid New Zealand in the quarter finals. Watching Sunday's (12/10/15) game you could see why Ireland felt they needed help because they're clearly trying to focus on the skilled aspects of the game rather then brute force. However by the sheer volume of handling errors it's clear that Ireland's skills aren't strong enough to defeat New Zealand who can also do brute force.
I don't think Ireland needed to bother because ever since they were billeted in Croydon - Asylum Seeker Central - it's clear that France are in for a rough time at this tournament as punishment for the Calais refugee crisis.
Despite winning the game fairly and avoiding New Zealand in the quarter finals afterwards Ireland popped up again with the shooting of a police officer in domestic incident in Omeath, County Louth which right on the border with Northern Ireland.
The fact that the suspect has been identified as a dissident Republican brings in all the current arguments over Northern Ireland's power sharing assembly. Louth is also the constituency of Republican Sinn Fein leader Gerry Adams.
Also at the time Turkey started it's bombing of Kurdish targets in Iraq which was accompanied by the Shoreham Air Crash I commented that Turkey bombing Kurdish targets in Iraq in response to the Suruc bombing made about as much sense as the UK bombing County Meath in Ireland response to the Shoreham Air Crash.
I chose County Meath to make this point because County Louth sits between it and Northern Ireland.
I may be back later to add some stuff about the purely technical aspects of the game of rugby. However at this point I've not even checked my messages.
11:10 on 12/10/15 (UK date).
Edited at around 15:50 on 12/10/15 (UK date) to add;
Shortly after the Ireland v France game ended I got re-Tweeted that day's summary of the US-led coalition - Combined Joint Task Force: Operation Inherent Resolve (CJTFOIR) - air-strikes
Unfortunately at the time my phone didn't tell me that it was a re-Tweet making me think that CJTFOIR were no longer blocking me. As I was working out if and how I should acknowledge this development my phone was being really difficult running slowly, failing to connect to the Internet and eventually just switching itself off.
The final game of the day was between Japan and the USA. Unlike the vast majority of the traditional rugby playing nations neither of these two countries are part of the UK Commonwealth. They are though two powerful, technologically advanced nations that have been working together on the US "Pivot Towards the Pacific" and the associated Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) trade deal.
As a result the game felt to me like the UK putting pressure on both nations to reveal what they knew. For example rather then being played at a big stadium like Twickenham they were forced to play at a tiny rugby club in Gloucester which really underlined their lower status in the game.
To make matters worse to watch that game I had to record the season premiere of "Homeland" on my Chinese made DVR bringing in a whole extra level of technology.
So basically it was events conspiring late on to spoil an otherwise rather enjoyable day.
Due events in Turkey I was unable to watch England's final game against Uruguay on Saturday (10/10/15). This was annoying because after the England v Australia game I pointed out that England conceded a lot of penalties for collapsing the scrum by failing to drive straight.
I then realised that if you didn't automatically know what that sentence meant I had no way of explaining it. A couple of days later I thought one up;
Take the fingers of both your hands and wiggle them about. Then interlock them so the index finger of your left hand goes between the index and middle fingers on your right hand and so on. Once you've got your fingers interlocked force your knuckles together as hard as you can.
That is pretty much what a scrum is with the tips of your fingers being the legs of the players all trying to hook the ball back to there side of the scrum. The force of the knuckles is what is known as; "the drive."
Although the main objective of the scrum is to get the ball back to your own players teams can try and gain a territory advantage either by pushing the other team back or wheeling the scrum around. This involves rotating the scrum so the opposition's defensive line is left facing in the opposite direction leaving the attacking free to go on and score.
When wheeling a scrum it's important that the players keep driving forward while the movement comes from the gradual edging of the players feet sideways. What England have a tendency to do is to push harder on one side of the scrum then the other in an effort to move it around that way. During the Wales game they weren't picked up on it while in the Australia game they were.
While I'm here I should also try and explain the passage of play that many people blame for England losing to Wales;
Around the 75th minute England won a penalty five yards/metres away from the Welsh try-line/end-zone. They could have used this to kick a goal scoring 3 points and levelling the game at 28-28.
Alternatively they could have put the ball into touch and used that to set up what is called a "Rolling Maul." This basically is when the attacking side tries push the player holding the ball through the opposition defensive line. If that was successful England would have scored a 5 point try and then possibly a 2 point conversion allowing them to win the game 32-28.
The angle for the kick was really tight so England instead went for the rolling maul. As a result the last 5 minutes of the game was one group of really big men trying with all their might to force their way past a group of equally large men who were trying just as hard to stop them.
It was actually a very masculine version of how the 2015 Superbowl ended. However where the Patriots were able to force their way over to score England weren't.
The thing that annoyed me about Wales' performance against Australia was that around the 60 minute mark Australia had two players sent to the sin bin meaning that for 10 minutes the game was played with 15 Welsh players against 13 Australian players.
Wales then sort of got fixated on using this weight advantage to force a rolling maul across the Australian try-line giving them a 13-12 lead. All the while their supporters were just willing them to pass the ball out wide and simply run though the gap in the Australia defence.
They didn't and after scoring a late 3 point penalty Australia went on to win 15-6 in a game without a single try.
16:35 on 12/10/15 (UK date).
The build-up began on Friday (9/10/15) with the news that the UK Crown would not be holding a Coroners Inquest into the death of Anni Dewani (nee; Hindocha). This was the latest instalment in a long running saga that began in Cape Town, South Africa in November 2010.
Essentially massive homosexual Shrien Dewani was pressured into marrying Anni Dewani. On their honeymoon in South Africa in November 2010 he paid hitmen to kill Anni Dewani freeing him from the marriage and allowing to live as a socially acceptable widower rather then a suspiciously single man who seemed to have no interest in women.
Although I think this was just a private citizen acting as a private citizen it happened just before the start of the COP16 climate change meeting in Cancun, Mexico. By that point we already knew that the next year's COP17 Summit would be held in Durban, South Africa. The Durban platform that was devised at COP17 is the basis for the new climate change agreement that is set to be signed in just 49 days at COP21 in Paris, France.
Both in terms of the security plan for COP17 and for the sake of their tourism industry generally the South Africans were initially very keen to bring Shrien Dewani to justice to send the message that South Africa isn't a country you can visit to murder people and get away with it.
Unfortunately the story was too much of an opportunity for the UK to resist. For example the Dewani family are based in Bristol, UK. Although I think I only visited the place once I have quite strong ties to Bristol.
Also while the Dewanis are British citizens and the Hindochas are Swedish citizens they are both ethnically Indian and have strong ties to that nation which is very important in climate change negotiations. Added to that South Africa actually has a large ethnically Indian population and barely a week seems to go by when the ruling African National Congress (ANC) party aren't embroiled in some corruption scandal or other involving wealthy Indian families.
As a result the UK stepped in to protect Shrien Dewani from justice. Following a 4 year extradition process South Africa finally bowed to pressure from the UK and dropped the case in November 2014. The request for a Coroners Inquest was the Hindocha family attempting to re-open the case.
If the England rugby had gone on to meet the South Africa rugby team in the quarter-finals the timing of the decision would have been excellent preparation as we were left speculating over whether the UK was protecting South Africa for the decision it imposed on them or criticising them for the decision they imposed on them.
As it turns out England didn't qualify so the story was left to be recycled as the British Crown backing South Africa in its quarter final against Wales who defeated England knocking them out of the competition.
Unfortunately Ireland decided to get in on the action with the deaths of 10 people in a fire at the Carrickmines gypsy/traveller site in County Dublin. Back in 2011 the UK got in a lot of trouble - including with the United Nations (UN) - over the eviction of the Dale Farm gypsy/traveller site in Essex. Also in my younger, wilder days I have lived on the fringes of that secretive world.
What Ireland was looking for was help defeating France to avoid New Zealand in the quarter finals. Watching Sunday's (12/10/15) game you could see why Ireland felt they needed help because they're clearly trying to focus on the skilled aspects of the game rather then brute force. However by the sheer volume of handling errors it's clear that Ireland's skills aren't strong enough to defeat New Zealand who can also do brute force.
I don't think Ireland needed to bother because ever since they were billeted in Croydon - Asylum Seeker Central - it's clear that France are in for a rough time at this tournament as punishment for the Calais refugee crisis.
Despite winning the game fairly and avoiding New Zealand in the quarter finals afterwards Ireland popped up again with the shooting of a police officer in domestic incident in Omeath, County Louth which right on the border with Northern Ireland.
The fact that the suspect has been identified as a dissident Republican brings in all the current arguments over Northern Ireland's power sharing assembly. Louth is also the constituency of Republican Sinn Fein leader Gerry Adams.
Also at the time Turkey started it's bombing of Kurdish targets in Iraq which was accompanied by the Shoreham Air Crash I commented that Turkey bombing Kurdish targets in Iraq in response to the Suruc bombing made about as much sense as the UK bombing County Meath in Ireland response to the Shoreham Air Crash.
I chose County Meath to make this point because County Louth sits between it and Northern Ireland.
I may be back later to add some stuff about the purely technical aspects of the game of rugby. However at this point I've not even checked my messages.
11:10 on 12/10/15 (UK date).
Edited at around 15:50 on 12/10/15 (UK date) to add;
Shortly after the Ireland v France game ended I got re-Tweeted that day's summary of the US-led coalition - Combined Joint Task Force: Operation Inherent Resolve (CJTFOIR) - air-strikes
Unfortunately at the time my phone didn't tell me that it was a re-Tweet making me think that CJTFOIR were no longer blocking me. As I was working out if and how I should acknowledge this development my phone was being really difficult running slowly, failing to connect to the Internet and eventually just switching itself off.
The final game of the day was between Japan and the USA. Unlike the vast majority of the traditional rugby playing nations neither of these two countries are part of the UK Commonwealth. They are though two powerful, technologically advanced nations that have been working together on the US "Pivot Towards the Pacific" and the associated Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) trade deal.
As a result the game felt to me like the UK putting pressure on both nations to reveal what they knew. For example rather then being played at a big stadium like Twickenham they were forced to play at a tiny rugby club in Gloucester which really underlined their lower status in the game.
To make matters worse to watch that game I had to record the season premiere of "Homeland" on my Chinese made DVR bringing in a whole extra level of technology.
So basically it was events conspiring late on to spoil an otherwise rather enjoyable day.
Due events in Turkey I was unable to watch England's final game against Uruguay on Saturday (10/10/15). This was annoying because after the England v Australia game I pointed out that England conceded a lot of penalties for collapsing the scrum by failing to drive straight.
I then realised that if you didn't automatically know what that sentence meant I had no way of explaining it. A couple of days later I thought one up;
Take the fingers of both your hands and wiggle them about. Then interlock them so the index finger of your left hand goes between the index and middle fingers on your right hand and so on. Once you've got your fingers interlocked force your knuckles together as hard as you can.
That is pretty much what a scrum is with the tips of your fingers being the legs of the players all trying to hook the ball back to there side of the scrum. The force of the knuckles is what is known as; "the drive."
Although the main objective of the scrum is to get the ball back to your own players teams can try and gain a territory advantage either by pushing the other team back or wheeling the scrum around. This involves rotating the scrum so the opposition's defensive line is left facing in the opposite direction leaving the attacking free to go on and score.
When wheeling a scrum it's important that the players keep driving forward while the movement comes from the gradual edging of the players feet sideways. What England have a tendency to do is to push harder on one side of the scrum then the other in an effort to move it around that way. During the Wales game they weren't picked up on it while in the Australia game they were.
While I'm here I should also try and explain the passage of play that many people blame for England losing to Wales;
Around the 75th minute England won a penalty five yards/metres away from the Welsh try-line/end-zone. They could have used this to kick a goal scoring 3 points and levelling the game at 28-28.
Alternatively they could have put the ball into touch and used that to set up what is called a "Rolling Maul." This basically is when the attacking side tries push the player holding the ball through the opposition defensive line. If that was successful England would have scored a 5 point try and then possibly a 2 point conversion allowing them to win the game 32-28.
The angle for the kick was really tight so England instead went for the rolling maul. As a result the last 5 minutes of the game was one group of really big men trying with all their might to force their way past a group of equally large men who were trying just as hard to stop them.
It was actually a very masculine version of how the 2015 Superbowl ended. However where the Patriots were able to force their way over to score England weren't.
The thing that annoyed me about Wales' performance against Australia was that around the 60 minute mark Australia had two players sent to the sin bin meaning that for 10 minutes the game was played with 15 Welsh players against 13 Australian players.
Wales then sort of got fixated on using this weight advantage to force a rolling maul across the Australian try-line giving them a 13-12 lead. All the while their supporters were just willing them to pass the ball out wide and simply run though the gap in the Australia defence.
They didn't and after scoring a late 3 point penalty Australia went on to win 15-6 in a game without a single try.
16:35 on 12/10/15 (UK date).
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