At 05:00 (08:00 local) on Tuesday (5/8/14) both Israel and Hamas began a 72 hour cease-fire. At around 18:00 (21:00 local) on Thursday (7/8/14) a Hamas spokesman gave a televised address in which he announced that Hamas would resume military action when the cease-fire ended at 05:00 (08:00 local) on Friday (8/8/14) unless all of Hamas' demands were met.
As the only three demands that Israel have not agreed to are the opening of an airport in Gaza, the opening of a seaport in Gaza and the free movement of Gazans into Israel this was essentially Hamas announcing that it was going to resume attacks on Israel. After all as Hamas has spent the last two months doing everything in its power to attack Israel and kill Israelis there is no way on earth Israel is going to agree to make it easier for Hamas to re-arm and intensify its attacks.
As it turns out Islamic Jihad actually fired first launching mortars into Israel at around 01:00 (04:00 local) on Friday morning breaking the cease-fire by around 4 hours. However as soon as the cease-fire expired Hamas also resumed rocket fire with 76 rockets being fired into Israel since the cease-fire expired. Of those 20% have fallen short and landed in Gaza. Each one of those rockets represents what is termed an indiscriminate, area weapon. As such their use against civilian areas in Israel each constitutes an individual war crime. Under the self-defence principle of meeting force with equal force each rocket entitles Israel to use indiscriminate, area weapons such as artillery against civilian areas in Gaza without being accused of committing war crimes.
So far Israel has held back from exercising that right and has limited its response to guided air-power striking 70 targets in Gaza since the end of the cease-fire. The overwhelming majority of these targets have been rocket launch sites. Unlike Qassam rockets that can be launched from pretty anywhere in a matter of moments the more advanced rockets that Hamas have been using in this conflict need specialised launch sites which are essentially mini-missile silos which can take several days to set up. So once these launch sites have been identified by having rockets fired from them the Israeli Defence Force (IDF) move in quickly to destroy them in order to prevent them being used in future attacks.
Israel has also been carrying out limited strikes against senior Hamas personnel and weapons stores The most high profile of these has probably been the overnight attack on the al-Qassam Mosque in which senior Hamas official Moaaz Zaid was killed. Although I cannot account for every single air-strike as far as I can tell when attacking homes and other civilians buildings the IDF have resumed the practise of issuing a telephone warning followed by a dummy 'roof knock' strike on the building in order to allow civilians to evacuate. Of course by providing these warnings the IDF are also making it a lot easier for their intended targets to escape. As a result there is a debate as to whether Israel is prepared to simply destroy Hamas militants homes rather then killing civilians in an attempt to kill them. Destroying military officials homes like this is most certainly allowed under the rules of war and to me at least it seems highly preferable to killing civilians even if it does mean that it is likely to extend the conflict.
In terms of peace talks Hamas' decision to resume attacks left the Israeli delegation with little choice other then to leave Egypt in protest. However the Palestinian delegation remain in Egypt and the Israeli delegation have indicated to the mediators that they could be prepared to return if the circumstances permit. I am actually quite comfortable with this situation provided the Palestinian delegation is prepared to make progress. After all it is impossible to argue that it is anything other then Hamas' inflexibility that is providing the main sticking point at this time.
16:05 on 9/8/14 (UK date).
Saturday, 9 August 2014
Friday, 8 August 2014
When an Air-Strike Not an Air-strike.
As you may have heard while the World was busy pouring criticism on Israel over its operation in Gaza a group called the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) have continued their rampage across Iraq.
It would take me far too long to detail the history of ISIL but their main ideology is simply one of death. They wish to re-establish the medieval state known as the Levant because some of the wilder branches of Sunni Islam believe this is where the Messiah will re-appear heralding the end of the World. In their present form they began fighting against the Syrian government but when they discovered that the Syrian government was prepared to fight back they simply switched to attacking soft, civilian targets like the worst type of school yard bully.
In January 2014 ISIL seized control of Iraq's western Anbar province. In June ISIL took control of Iraq's northern and central provinces including Salah al-Din and Kirkuk. Over the past week they have advanced in Nineveh province and are threatening Arbil. Wherever ISIL have advanced to the have simply massacred Shia civilians in the area and given all other religious groups including Sunni Muslims the choice to convert to their extreme brand of Islam, leave or be killed. Those who choose to remain have been forced to submit to cruel and degrading practises such as female genital mutilation, rape and slavery. In Nineveh province alone ISIL slaughtered 100 people per hour for 24 hours producing a death toll that far exceeds Israel's operation in Gaza. In excess of 40,000 Yazidis have been forced to flee and are now trapped on a mountain in the desert where they have already begun to die of thirst.
The acts of mass murder, extermination (genocide), religious persecution, extra-judicial killing, ethnic/religious cleansing and inhuman treatment such as rape and slavery that we have seen from ISIL all constitute crimes against humanity that go far beyond mere war crimes. They have also been committed across international borders. As a result the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) yesterday (7/8/14) condemned the actions of ISIL and called on the international community to take action to stop them.
While all this has been going on the United States has had military advisers on the ground in Iraq and a carrier group equipped with F-18 ground attack aircraft standing just off-shore watching all this happen. As a result the US President Barack Obama has come in for plenty of justified but stinging criticism over his inaction. Yesterday journalists attending the daily White House press briefing responded to the announcement that the "White House was monitoring the situation" by telling the press secretary that he was simply watching people being slaughtered. Later in the day the New York Times went so far as to circulate a false story that the US had begun air-strikes against ISIL. The intention being to force the White House to explain why it had yet to begin air-strikes against ISIL.
This pressure forced Obama to address the nation last night. The headline that Obama hoped everybody would take away from the address is that he has finally authorised air-strikes against ISIL. However if you concentrate on the detail you will quickly discover that Obama was actually erecting a series of barriers to further delay taking action against ISIL. He has now said that he will only take action if ISIL advance on the city of Irbil and then only if that advance threatens US military personnel. Obama then repeated his usual excuse of American military power being unable to solve Iraq's problems. This is of course nonsense because US air power alone can most certainly break ISIL as a fighting force.
As a result I can only conclude that Obama is calculating that all the Yazidis will be dead and forgotten long before November's mid-term elections.
11:30 on 8/8/14 (UK date).
Edited at around 14:45 on 8/8/14 (UK date) to add;
Since publishing the above the US has carried out a single air-strike in Iraq near the town of Irbil. This involved 2 F-18 jets dropping a single 500lb bomb on a single ISIL artillery piece. In military terms this is nothing more then a sick joke.
Make no mistake military action is dirty, it is dangerous and ultimately it kills people. As such it should only be undertaken when there is no other option. However once all other alternatives have been exhausted - as they clearly have in Iraq - and military action is taken it needs to be taken decisively and there can be no half measures.
So rather then this perverse game of Hokey-Cokey that Obama seems intent on playing the moment that military force was authorised the US should have immediately struck all of ISIL's heavy weapons in and around Irbil. They should then have moved on to target ISIL supply routes along with their command and control centres and bases. To put it bluntly they should have set about killing as many of ISIL's estimated 15,000 fighters as possible.
If Obama does not have the stomach for that he should immediately withdraw the US military from the area and concede that genocide and ethnic cleansing are simply prices he is prepared to pay in order to win control of Congress.
It would take me far too long to detail the history of ISIL but their main ideology is simply one of death. They wish to re-establish the medieval state known as the Levant because some of the wilder branches of Sunni Islam believe this is where the Messiah will re-appear heralding the end of the World. In their present form they began fighting against the Syrian government but when they discovered that the Syrian government was prepared to fight back they simply switched to attacking soft, civilian targets like the worst type of school yard bully.
In January 2014 ISIL seized control of Iraq's western Anbar province. In June ISIL took control of Iraq's northern and central provinces including Salah al-Din and Kirkuk. Over the past week they have advanced in Nineveh province and are threatening Arbil. Wherever ISIL have advanced to the have simply massacred Shia civilians in the area and given all other religious groups including Sunni Muslims the choice to convert to their extreme brand of Islam, leave or be killed. Those who choose to remain have been forced to submit to cruel and degrading practises such as female genital mutilation, rape and slavery. In Nineveh province alone ISIL slaughtered 100 people per hour for 24 hours producing a death toll that far exceeds Israel's operation in Gaza. In excess of 40,000 Yazidis have been forced to flee and are now trapped on a mountain in the desert where they have already begun to die of thirst.
The acts of mass murder, extermination (genocide), religious persecution, extra-judicial killing, ethnic/religious cleansing and inhuman treatment such as rape and slavery that we have seen from ISIL all constitute crimes against humanity that go far beyond mere war crimes. They have also been committed across international borders. As a result the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) yesterday (7/8/14) condemned the actions of ISIL and called on the international community to take action to stop them.
While all this has been going on the United States has had military advisers on the ground in Iraq and a carrier group equipped with F-18 ground attack aircraft standing just off-shore watching all this happen. As a result the US President Barack Obama has come in for plenty of justified but stinging criticism over his inaction. Yesterday journalists attending the daily White House press briefing responded to the announcement that the "White House was monitoring the situation" by telling the press secretary that he was simply watching people being slaughtered. Later in the day the New York Times went so far as to circulate a false story that the US had begun air-strikes against ISIL. The intention being to force the White House to explain why it had yet to begin air-strikes against ISIL.
This pressure forced Obama to address the nation last night. The headline that Obama hoped everybody would take away from the address is that he has finally authorised air-strikes against ISIL. However if you concentrate on the detail you will quickly discover that Obama was actually erecting a series of barriers to further delay taking action against ISIL. He has now said that he will only take action if ISIL advance on the city of Irbil and then only if that advance threatens US military personnel. Obama then repeated his usual excuse of American military power being unable to solve Iraq's problems. This is of course nonsense because US air power alone can most certainly break ISIL as a fighting force.
As a result I can only conclude that Obama is calculating that all the Yazidis will be dead and forgotten long before November's mid-term elections.
11:30 on 8/8/14 (UK date).
Edited at around 14:45 on 8/8/14 (UK date) to add;
Since publishing the above the US has carried out a single air-strike in Iraq near the town of Irbil. This involved 2 F-18 jets dropping a single 500lb bomb on a single ISIL artillery piece. In military terms this is nothing more then a sick joke.
Make no mistake military action is dirty, it is dangerous and ultimately it kills people. As such it should only be undertaken when there is no other option. However once all other alternatives have been exhausted - as they clearly have in Iraq - and military action is taken it needs to be taken decisively and there can be no half measures.
So rather then this perverse game of Hokey-Cokey that Obama seems intent on playing the moment that military force was authorised the US should have immediately struck all of ISIL's heavy weapons in and around Irbil. They should then have moved on to target ISIL supply routes along with their command and control centres and bases. To put it bluntly they should have set about killing as many of ISIL's estimated 15,000 fighters as possible.
If Obama does not have the stomach for that he should immediately withdraw the US military from the area and concede that genocide and ethnic cleansing are simply prices he is prepared to pay in order to win control of Congress.
Wednesday, 6 August 2014
My Brother's Keeper: Month 2, Week 3, Day 4.
You may remember that on June 11th 2014 (11/6/14) things were relatively stable in both Israel and Palestine. Sure long term problems such as illegal Israeli settlements and the right to return had not been resolved but nobody was shooting at each other and Hamas and Fatah were working together to unify Gaza and the West Bank which is a vital first step in getting Israel to recognise a Palestinian state. Then on June 12th (12/6/14) three Israeli teenagers were kidnapped and all hell broke loose.
Yesterday (5/8/14) the Israeli State Prosecutors Office submitted paperwork to the High Court of Justice seeking the forfeiture of property belonging to Hussam Qawasmeh who is related to one of the two main suspects in the kidnapping. Buried deep in that paperwork it emerged that Hussam Qawasmeh had been arrested on July 11th (11/7/14) whilst trying to flee into Jordan. Under questioning by the Shin Bet Hussam Qawasmeh confessed to ordering Marwan Qawasmeh and Abu Aisheh to carry out the kidnapping and had supplied them with weapons to do so. Crucially Hussam Qawasmeh also claimed that the funding to carry out the kidnapping had come from Hamas who had given the crime their full blessing.
The obviously proves the Israeli government's narrative that Hamas had been responsible for the kidnapping. However I should point out that facing a lengthy prison sentence and with the Israelis prepared to not just seize all of Hussam Qawasmeh's property but also all property belonging to the entire Qawasmeh family Hussam obviously has a massive incentive to tell the Israelis exactly what they want to hear while shifting the blame from his family onto Hamas. That said the reason why I initially didn't think that Hamas had ordered the kidnapping is because up to that point they hadn't displayed an interest in such nihilistic tactics. However since then Hamas has shown time and time again that it is most certainly capable of such nihilism both through their efforts to maximise the number of civilian casualties and by their repeated attempts to kidnap Israeli soldiers and civilians including the effort to kidnap Hadar Goldin. As a result I am now more inclined to believe that Hamas did in fact order the kidnapping although for the life of me I cannot begin to think of a reason why.
Despite this revelation Israel has still sent a delegation to Egypt to negotiate with the Palestinian factions. Obviously these closed negotiations are highly complex and I for one am mainly interested on the progress of items that aren't officially on the agenda. However the rumours coming out of the talks are that Israel is in a particularly giving mood. The Palestinians have apparently made seven key demands three of which - the opening of a Gaza airport, the opening of a Gaza seaport and guaranteeing the free movement of Palestinians from Gaza into Israel - are simply ridiculous because they will be used by Hamas to re-arm themselves and then launch attacks into Israel. However Israel have apparently agreed to the Palestinians four other demands - ending the military operation in Gaza, lifting the blockade on goods flowing into Gaza from Israel, allowing Gazan fishermen up to 12 nautical miles out to sea and releasing the Palestinians taken prisoner in the aftermath of June's kidnapping.
Obviously I've always had my suspicions that Israel has been keen to loosen the blockade in order to weaken Hamas by flooding Gaza with cheap imports whilst starving them of the tax revenues that are vital to produce a functioning state. In fact I'm pretty sure that was the argument that Tony Blair used to get the Israelis to loosen the blockade following Operation Cast Lead in 2008/9. On the prisoner release and the rather benign fishing rights issues I am though worried that Israel is in danger of being too soft on Hamas. Although I think that Israeli was on course to loosen the blockade (of which fishing rights is an element) anyway on June 11th (the prisoner issue didn't exist at that point) doing so now is likely to be seen by Hamas and their supporters as a victory which in turn acts as an endorsement of their tactics and their nihilistic direction of the past three to four years.
These worries are exacerbated by the way that the actual fighting in Gaza has been brought to an end. Although it is officially being described as a cease-fire I don't think there is any doubt that Israel unilaterally withdraw their ground forces from Gaza on Tuesday having achieved all their objectives securing a clear victory over Hamas. As part of that victory Israel has destroyed all 32 known attack tunnels into Israel, killed over 700 Hamas and Islamic Jihad fighters, destroyed close to 1000 Hamas command and control centres while destroying around 75-80% of Hamas stocks of rockets. The problem is that Hamas' mentality is very much that if they have one fighter and one weapon left when the Israelis decide to stop shooting at them they will somehow find a way to convince themselves that they have scored a massive victory. That is only likely to be compounded if Israel now start giving Hamas what it has been demanding throughout the conflict.
As a result rather then offering Hamas concessions I think that Israel would be better served pressing home their advantage by continuing a limited air operation to destroy the remaining 20-25% of Hamas' weapons. That's because you can argue that Israel would be doing everyone a favour by utterly humiliating Hamas while stopping short of completely destroying them.
I know this might sound strange coming from me. After all if it wasn't a criminal offence here in the UK I might even go so far as to describe myself as a Hamas supporter. However I support the Hamas that responded to the Israeli blockade by setting up a thriving internal economy based on smuggled goods. I also support the Hamas that responded to the destruction of Cast Lead by quickly finding a way of turning the rubble of destroyed buildings into the concrete blocks needed to build new buildings. I am not a supporter of the Hamas that places the killing of Jews above all else nor am I a support of the Hamas that will provoke a needless war in the hope that enough Palestinian civilians will be killed to increase international pressure on Israel.
As such I think this defeat provides Hamas with an opportunity to decide what type of organisation it wants to be in the future. In short Hamas can chose to build more tunnels or it can choose to build bridges. One may lead to a functioning Palestinian state while the other will surely only lead to more violence, more death and more destruction.
19:45 on 6/8/14 (UK date).
Yesterday (5/8/14) the Israeli State Prosecutors Office submitted paperwork to the High Court of Justice seeking the forfeiture of property belonging to Hussam Qawasmeh who is related to one of the two main suspects in the kidnapping. Buried deep in that paperwork it emerged that Hussam Qawasmeh had been arrested on July 11th (11/7/14) whilst trying to flee into Jordan. Under questioning by the Shin Bet Hussam Qawasmeh confessed to ordering Marwan Qawasmeh and Abu Aisheh to carry out the kidnapping and had supplied them with weapons to do so. Crucially Hussam Qawasmeh also claimed that the funding to carry out the kidnapping had come from Hamas who had given the crime their full blessing.
The obviously proves the Israeli government's narrative that Hamas had been responsible for the kidnapping. However I should point out that facing a lengthy prison sentence and with the Israelis prepared to not just seize all of Hussam Qawasmeh's property but also all property belonging to the entire Qawasmeh family Hussam obviously has a massive incentive to tell the Israelis exactly what they want to hear while shifting the blame from his family onto Hamas. That said the reason why I initially didn't think that Hamas had ordered the kidnapping is because up to that point they hadn't displayed an interest in such nihilistic tactics. However since then Hamas has shown time and time again that it is most certainly capable of such nihilism both through their efforts to maximise the number of civilian casualties and by their repeated attempts to kidnap Israeli soldiers and civilians including the effort to kidnap Hadar Goldin. As a result I am now more inclined to believe that Hamas did in fact order the kidnapping although for the life of me I cannot begin to think of a reason why.
Despite this revelation Israel has still sent a delegation to Egypt to negotiate with the Palestinian factions. Obviously these closed negotiations are highly complex and I for one am mainly interested on the progress of items that aren't officially on the agenda. However the rumours coming out of the talks are that Israel is in a particularly giving mood. The Palestinians have apparently made seven key demands three of which - the opening of a Gaza airport, the opening of a Gaza seaport and guaranteeing the free movement of Palestinians from Gaza into Israel - are simply ridiculous because they will be used by Hamas to re-arm themselves and then launch attacks into Israel. However Israel have apparently agreed to the Palestinians four other demands - ending the military operation in Gaza, lifting the blockade on goods flowing into Gaza from Israel, allowing Gazan fishermen up to 12 nautical miles out to sea and releasing the Palestinians taken prisoner in the aftermath of June's kidnapping.
Obviously I've always had my suspicions that Israel has been keen to loosen the blockade in order to weaken Hamas by flooding Gaza with cheap imports whilst starving them of the tax revenues that are vital to produce a functioning state. In fact I'm pretty sure that was the argument that Tony Blair used to get the Israelis to loosen the blockade following Operation Cast Lead in 2008/9. On the prisoner release and the rather benign fishing rights issues I am though worried that Israel is in danger of being too soft on Hamas. Although I think that Israeli was on course to loosen the blockade (of which fishing rights is an element) anyway on June 11th (the prisoner issue didn't exist at that point) doing so now is likely to be seen by Hamas and their supporters as a victory which in turn acts as an endorsement of their tactics and their nihilistic direction of the past three to four years.
These worries are exacerbated by the way that the actual fighting in Gaza has been brought to an end. Although it is officially being described as a cease-fire I don't think there is any doubt that Israel unilaterally withdraw their ground forces from Gaza on Tuesday having achieved all their objectives securing a clear victory over Hamas. As part of that victory Israel has destroyed all 32 known attack tunnels into Israel, killed over 700 Hamas and Islamic Jihad fighters, destroyed close to 1000 Hamas command and control centres while destroying around 75-80% of Hamas stocks of rockets. The problem is that Hamas' mentality is very much that if they have one fighter and one weapon left when the Israelis decide to stop shooting at them they will somehow find a way to convince themselves that they have scored a massive victory. That is only likely to be compounded if Israel now start giving Hamas what it has been demanding throughout the conflict.
As a result rather then offering Hamas concessions I think that Israel would be better served pressing home their advantage by continuing a limited air operation to destroy the remaining 20-25% of Hamas' weapons. That's because you can argue that Israel would be doing everyone a favour by utterly humiliating Hamas while stopping short of completely destroying them.
I know this might sound strange coming from me. After all if it wasn't a criminal offence here in the UK I might even go so far as to describe myself as a Hamas supporter. However I support the Hamas that responded to the Israeli blockade by setting up a thriving internal economy based on smuggled goods. I also support the Hamas that responded to the destruction of Cast Lead by quickly finding a way of turning the rubble of destroyed buildings into the concrete blocks needed to build new buildings. I am not a supporter of the Hamas that places the killing of Jews above all else nor am I a support of the Hamas that will provoke a needless war in the hope that enough Palestinian civilians will be killed to increase international pressure on Israel.
As such I think this defeat provides Hamas with an opportunity to decide what type of organisation it wants to be in the future. In short Hamas can chose to build more tunnels or it can choose to build bridges. One may lead to a functioning Palestinian state while the other will surely only lead to more violence, more death and more destruction.
19:45 on 6/8/14 (UK date).
Monday, 4 August 2014
My Brother's Keeper: Month 2, Week 3, Day 2.
Since Saturday (2/8/14) the Israeli Defence Forces (IDF) have very much been on the move in Gaza. As a military they have obviously not been keen to let everyone - particularly their enemy - know exactly what they're up to. However it appears that the have withdrawn all troops to within 1km (0.6miles) of the border and moved the majority of their forces back into Israel.
Primarily this appears to have been done to allow them rotate troops out of the battlefield so they can be replaced by fresh troops. After all weary troops make mistakes and that is how civilians get killed. However in response to the largely unjustified international pressure on Israel over the past week or so there seems to have been a concerted effort to speed up the operation in order to allow Israel to end the operation as soon as possible. As a result 30 of the 31 known tunnels into Israel have been destroyed and the remaining one is being kept as a sort of tourist attraction for the international media. As a result it is possible to argue that the IDF has achieved 100% of the objectives it set out to achieve when it launched the ground operation on July 17th (17/7/14).
The exception is the town of Rafah. Literally located right on the border between Gaza and Egypt it is not the most logical place for Hamas to build tunnels intended to attack Israel. In fact there's been a lot of talk of Rafah's tunnel building families being forced to relocate to other Gazan towns in order to dig the attack tunnels. As a result Rafah was never intended to be a main focus of the IDF operation and their activities there should have been limited to doing a quick search to establish that there were no tunnels. This of course changed on Friday (2/8/14) when IDF soldier Hadar Goldin was killed in a kidnapping attempt. As Goldin's body has yet to be recovered the IDF is now conducting an extensive search of Rafah in an effort to recover that body and finally establish exactly what happened. This process could take a very long time because today the World marked the 100th anniversary to the start of the First World War. The nations involved in that conflict are still working to recover the remains of soldiers who went missing on those battlefields.
With the exception of the Rafah area the completion of this phase of the operation allowed Israel to declare a unilateral 7 hour humanitarian pause beginning at 07:00 (10:00 local) and ending at 14:00 (17:00 local). With the exception of an air-strike at the long term (est: 1948) al-Shati refugee camp in Gaza City - which I presume killed a high-value target - the IDF held their fire throughout.
For their part Hamas declared the withdrawal and humanitarian pause to be a "Criminal Act" and continued to fire some 63 rockets and mortars into Israel during the pause. On the West Bank an IDF soldier was wounded in a drive-by shooting by men on a motorcycle and a Jewish man was run over and killed by a Palestinian man in an industrial digging machine who proceed to knock over a bus before being shot and killed by the police. There was also the rather surreal situation in which a man telephoned the police in Tel Aviv to tell them that he was a suicide bomber who had changed his mind and wanted to return to Hebron. This prompted a several hour search for the man which didn't find him but did succeed in snarling up traffic across Tel Aviv. Fortunately the incidents on the West Bank seem to be the work of so-called "Lone Wolves" rather then co-ordinated terrorist attacks. Al-Qaeda of course moved to Lone Wolf tactics once its infrastructure had been smashed and it was unable to carry out more co-ordinated attacks.
Having achieved their original objectives the IDF now faces a choice; It can either end its operation and leave having scored a partial victory or they can search out fresh objectives. Given the increased regional security threat posed to Israel by the conflict in Syria and Iraq I think the IDF would be well advised to take the latter operation. That though poses the further question of whether they want to achieve those new objectives using ground forces or air power alone.
The main advantage of ground forces is that it puts people directly on the target so they can establish for sure that it is a legitimate military target before striking and revisit the target afterwards to establish that the target has been fully destroyed. This is particularly important when dealing with underground targets including tunnels and bunkers. It also provides the IDF with vital evidence to refute the rather wild propaganda claims that have been made against them in this operation. For example where ground troops have destroyed Mosques they have been able to provide video and pictures showing exactly the tunnels and bunkers that Hamas have dug below the Mosque and the weapons that Hamas has chosen to store within the Mosque. When the IDF have destroyed a Mosque with an air-strike we are simply left with images of smoking rubble where the Mosque used to be. This makes it much easier for people to try and argue that the IDF is attacking Mosque on religious rather then military grounds.
The main disadvantage to ground troops is that it massively increases the risk both to the soldiers on the ground and civilians in the area. That is because when the IDF - or any other army - go to destroy a tunnel they don't simply turn up on the back of a flatbed truck. Instead they first attempt 'soften-up' the area by subjecting it to attack using heavy, area weapons such as artillery. They then establish a cordon around the target using tanks backed by air-support. If fighters attack that cordon or civilians simply stray into it they will be counter-attacked by tank fire. As a result targeted, smart air-strikes are actually the more humane option particularly in the more built-up areas such as in the east of Gaza City even if they provides less certainty that a target has been destroyed.
Fortunately it seems that the IDF will have plenty of time to consider its next move because as I've been writing this it is being reported that the Palestinian factions involved in negotiations in Egypt have declared a unilateral 72 hour cease-fire and Israel have also agreed. However as yet there are no details of when this cease-fire will begin and what exactly it will involve.
19:50 on 4/8/14 (UK date).
Primarily this appears to have been done to allow them rotate troops out of the battlefield so they can be replaced by fresh troops. After all weary troops make mistakes and that is how civilians get killed. However in response to the largely unjustified international pressure on Israel over the past week or so there seems to have been a concerted effort to speed up the operation in order to allow Israel to end the operation as soon as possible. As a result 30 of the 31 known tunnels into Israel have been destroyed and the remaining one is being kept as a sort of tourist attraction for the international media. As a result it is possible to argue that the IDF has achieved 100% of the objectives it set out to achieve when it launched the ground operation on July 17th (17/7/14).
The exception is the town of Rafah. Literally located right on the border between Gaza and Egypt it is not the most logical place for Hamas to build tunnels intended to attack Israel. In fact there's been a lot of talk of Rafah's tunnel building families being forced to relocate to other Gazan towns in order to dig the attack tunnels. As a result Rafah was never intended to be a main focus of the IDF operation and their activities there should have been limited to doing a quick search to establish that there were no tunnels. This of course changed on Friday (2/8/14) when IDF soldier Hadar Goldin was killed in a kidnapping attempt. As Goldin's body has yet to be recovered the IDF is now conducting an extensive search of Rafah in an effort to recover that body and finally establish exactly what happened. This process could take a very long time because today the World marked the 100th anniversary to the start of the First World War. The nations involved in that conflict are still working to recover the remains of soldiers who went missing on those battlefields.
With the exception of the Rafah area the completion of this phase of the operation allowed Israel to declare a unilateral 7 hour humanitarian pause beginning at 07:00 (10:00 local) and ending at 14:00 (17:00 local). With the exception of an air-strike at the long term (est: 1948) al-Shati refugee camp in Gaza City - which I presume killed a high-value target - the IDF held their fire throughout.
For their part Hamas declared the withdrawal and humanitarian pause to be a "Criminal Act" and continued to fire some 63 rockets and mortars into Israel during the pause. On the West Bank an IDF soldier was wounded in a drive-by shooting by men on a motorcycle and a Jewish man was run over and killed by a Palestinian man in an industrial digging machine who proceed to knock over a bus before being shot and killed by the police. There was also the rather surreal situation in which a man telephoned the police in Tel Aviv to tell them that he was a suicide bomber who had changed his mind and wanted to return to Hebron. This prompted a several hour search for the man which didn't find him but did succeed in snarling up traffic across Tel Aviv. Fortunately the incidents on the West Bank seem to be the work of so-called "Lone Wolves" rather then co-ordinated terrorist attacks. Al-Qaeda of course moved to Lone Wolf tactics once its infrastructure had been smashed and it was unable to carry out more co-ordinated attacks.
Having achieved their original objectives the IDF now faces a choice; It can either end its operation and leave having scored a partial victory or they can search out fresh objectives. Given the increased regional security threat posed to Israel by the conflict in Syria and Iraq I think the IDF would be well advised to take the latter operation. That though poses the further question of whether they want to achieve those new objectives using ground forces or air power alone.
The main advantage of ground forces is that it puts people directly on the target so they can establish for sure that it is a legitimate military target before striking and revisit the target afterwards to establish that the target has been fully destroyed. This is particularly important when dealing with underground targets including tunnels and bunkers. It also provides the IDF with vital evidence to refute the rather wild propaganda claims that have been made against them in this operation. For example where ground troops have destroyed Mosques they have been able to provide video and pictures showing exactly the tunnels and bunkers that Hamas have dug below the Mosque and the weapons that Hamas has chosen to store within the Mosque. When the IDF have destroyed a Mosque with an air-strike we are simply left with images of smoking rubble where the Mosque used to be. This makes it much easier for people to try and argue that the IDF is attacking Mosque on religious rather then military grounds.
The main disadvantage to ground troops is that it massively increases the risk both to the soldiers on the ground and civilians in the area. That is because when the IDF - or any other army - go to destroy a tunnel they don't simply turn up on the back of a flatbed truck. Instead they first attempt 'soften-up' the area by subjecting it to attack using heavy, area weapons such as artillery. They then establish a cordon around the target using tanks backed by air-support. If fighters attack that cordon or civilians simply stray into it they will be counter-attacked by tank fire. As a result targeted, smart air-strikes are actually the more humane option particularly in the more built-up areas such as in the east of Gaza City even if they provides less certainty that a target has been destroyed.
Fortunately it seems that the IDF will have plenty of time to consider its next move because as I've been writing this it is being reported that the Palestinian factions involved in negotiations in Egypt have declared a unilateral 72 hour cease-fire and Israel have also agreed. However as yet there are no details of when this cease-fire will begin and what exactly it will involve.
19:50 on 4/8/14 (UK date).
Sunday, 3 August 2014
My Brother's Keeper: Month 2, Week 3, Day 1.
Or if I was writing specifically for Barack Obama;
"Welcome to the Neighbourhood."
At around 00:00 (03:00 local) Hadar Goldin the Israeli soldier who went missing on Friday (1/8/14) was declared dead by a special commission of the Israeli Defence Force (IDF). Prior to this public announcement the Goldin family had been visited in person by a delegation of the Israeli government including Moshe Ya'alon the Israeli defence minister and Hadar Goldin's second cousin. I am not aware of the specific information that the commission used to reach this conclusion but I am aware that if this decision were taken prematurely and Goldin were to suddenly appear alive in a country of less then 8 million people heads would literally roll.
I am though aware of the procedure the IDF implements in this type of event and did implement on Friday. Essentially this involves shutting down an area by saturating it with heavy weapons fire in order to give the people in that area no choice other then to stop and seek shelter. Helicopters and drones are then quickly brought in to investigate any movement within the area before finally ground troops are sent in to search the area. As it is extremely unlikely that Goldin and his captors would have been able to escape from the area their remains are most likely hidden amongst the rubble if indeed there are any remains left to recover. This is consistent with the account that Hamas have given of the incident and in the lack of any evidence to the contrary it seems safe to assume that this is what happened.
In order to understand why the IDF respond to potential hostage taking in such a harsh manner you simply need to remember that the US TV show "Homeland" was based on an Israeli TV show "Hatifum (Abductees)." Beyond the physical torture, mock executions, forcible drug addiction and brainwashing shown in those TV shows Hamas have also in the past used hostages to terrorise the hostage's family and by extension the entire state of Israel. For example during the holding of Gilad Shalit Hamas frequently moved him around in the hope that he could be used as a human shield to protect their military facilities from Israeli attack and used him to draw in more Israeli troops as part of a rescue mission so they could be ambushed and killed. Hamas also circulated numerous false stories that Shalit had been executed and released numerous videos which seemed intended to show that Shalit was much happier living as a Muslim then he'd even been living with his family.
Despite the declaration of death the IDF still most certainly want Goldin's body to be returned along with a fair bit of vengeance. As a result the Rafah area has continued to be pounded hard. The most talked about aspect of this intensified onslaught is going to be the rather wild claim by the United Nations Relief Works Agency (UNRWA) that another of its schools has been attacked. What actually appears to have happened is up to a dozen Hamas fighters attacked IDF soldiers before fleeing in a pick-up truck. That truck was tracked from the air and an air-strike called in. That air-strike took place on the road outside the UNRWA school slightly damaging the exterior walls of the compound. It is rather worrying that UNRWA seem happy to describe those Hamas fighters as "civilians who were sheltering in the school."
Elsewhere in the region yesterday (2/8/14) fighters from the al-Nusra front in Syria crossed in Lebanon to attack a Lebanese army post near Arsal killing seven soldiers in the process. Apart from being an attempt to put pressure on the Lebanese army to put pressure on Hezbollah who are fighting the al-Nusra front and other insurgent groups in Syria this seems like an attempt by the Syrian insurgents to remind that World that although they are on the brink of collapse they are not yet defeated. It also serves to highlight the strategic nightmare that the US and other western nations have inflicted on Israel through their actions in Syria and particularly the US' failure to act in Iraq.
In short Israel has been left facing a very real possibility of being attacked by well armed terrorists groups based in Gaza, Lebanon and Syria at the same time. As with the 1973 Yom Kippur war there is no guarantee that Israel would be able to survive such an onslaught and it certainly wouldn't be able to conduct itself with the level of restraint and concern for civilians that they've displayed in Gaza so far.
As a result Israel needs to finish Hamas off as a military force now while they have the space to do so and US President Obama really needs to learn to take the legitimate criticism Israel has been sending his way with the good grace and maturity that befits a World leader.
16:20 on 3/8/14 (UK date).
Edited at around 19:15 on 3/8/14 (UK date) to add;
Although I try and avoid identifying my sources the rumour I heard about the incident close to the UNRWA school in Rafah spoke only of "militants" and a "vehicle." As you can see from above I took this to mean Hamas militants and a pick-up truck. Sources close to the IDF are now talking in terms of Islamic Jihad militants riding motorcycles although the IDF themselves are investigating rather then commenting.
However the one thing that is not in dispute because it has been established by independent witnesses and footage of the scene is that those killed were militants who were killed by an air-strike on the road outside of the UNRWA school. The school itself only suffered superficial shrapnel damage to its perimeter wall.
This makes the statement by US State Department Spokeswoman Jen Psaki which expresses the US' outrage at the killing of civilians by Israeli artillery fire at a UNRWA school all the more peculiar. I personally am taking it as a sign that Obama and Kerry are yet to find that good grace.
"Welcome to the Neighbourhood."
At around 00:00 (03:00 local) Hadar Goldin the Israeli soldier who went missing on Friday (1/8/14) was declared dead by a special commission of the Israeli Defence Force (IDF). Prior to this public announcement the Goldin family had been visited in person by a delegation of the Israeli government including Moshe Ya'alon the Israeli defence minister and Hadar Goldin's second cousin. I am not aware of the specific information that the commission used to reach this conclusion but I am aware that if this decision were taken prematurely and Goldin were to suddenly appear alive in a country of less then 8 million people heads would literally roll.
I am though aware of the procedure the IDF implements in this type of event and did implement on Friday. Essentially this involves shutting down an area by saturating it with heavy weapons fire in order to give the people in that area no choice other then to stop and seek shelter. Helicopters and drones are then quickly brought in to investigate any movement within the area before finally ground troops are sent in to search the area. As it is extremely unlikely that Goldin and his captors would have been able to escape from the area their remains are most likely hidden amongst the rubble if indeed there are any remains left to recover. This is consistent with the account that Hamas have given of the incident and in the lack of any evidence to the contrary it seems safe to assume that this is what happened.
In order to understand why the IDF respond to potential hostage taking in such a harsh manner you simply need to remember that the US TV show "Homeland" was based on an Israeli TV show "Hatifum (Abductees)." Beyond the physical torture, mock executions, forcible drug addiction and brainwashing shown in those TV shows Hamas have also in the past used hostages to terrorise the hostage's family and by extension the entire state of Israel. For example during the holding of Gilad Shalit Hamas frequently moved him around in the hope that he could be used as a human shield to protect their military facilities from Israeli attack and used him to draw in more Israeli troops as part of a rescue mission so they could be ambushed and killed. Hamas also circulated numerous false stories that Shalit had been executed and released numerous videos which seemed intended to show that Shalit was much happier living as a Muslim then he'd even been living with his family.
Despite the declaration of death the IDF still most certainly want Goldin's body to be returned along with a fair bit of vengeance. As a result the Rafah area has continued to be pounded hard. The most talked about aspect of this intensified onslaught is going to be the rather wild claim by the United Nations Relief Works Agency (UNRWA) that another of its schools has been attacked. What actually appears to have happened is up to a dozen Hamas fighters attacked IDF soldiers before fleeing in a pick-up truck. That truck was tracked from the air and an air-strike called in. That air-strike took place on the road outside the UNRWA school slightly damaging the exterior walls of the compound. It is rather worrying that UNRWA seem happy to describe those Hamas fighters as "civilians who were sheltering in the school."
Elsewhere in the region yesterday (2/8/14) fighters from the al-Nusra front in Syria crossed in Lebanon to attack a Lebanese army post near Arsal killing seven soldiers in the process. Apart from being an attempt to put pressure on the Lebanese army to put pressure on Hezbollah who are fighting the al-Nusra front and other insurgent groups in Syria this seems like an attempt by the Syrian insurgents to remind that World that although they are on the brink of collapse they are not yet defeated. It also serves to highlight the strategic nightmare that the US and other western nations have inflicted on Israel through their actions in Syria and particularly the US' failure to act in Iraq.
In short Israel has been left facing a very real possibility of being attacked by well armed terrorists groups based in Gaza, Lebanon and Syria at the same time. As with the 1973 Yom Kippur war there is no guarantee that Israel would be able to survive such an onslaught and it certainly wouldn't be able to conduct itself with the level of restraint and concern for civilians that they've displayed in Gaza so far.
As a result Israel needs to finish Hamas off as a military force now while they have the space to do so and US President Obama really needs to learn to take the legitimate criticism Israel has been sending his way with the good grace and maturity that befits a World leader.
16:20 on 3/8/14 (UK date).
Edited at around 19:15 on 3/8/14 (UK date) to add;
Although I try and avoid identifying my sources the rumour I heard about the incident close to the UNRWA school in Rafah spoke only of "militants" and a "vehicle." As you can see from above I took this to mean Hamas militants and a pick-up truck. Sources close to the IDF are now talking in terms of Islamic Jihad militants riding motorcycles although the IDF themselves are investigating rather then commenting.
However the one thing that is not in dispute because it has been established by independent witnesses and footage of the scene is that those killed were militants who were killed by an air-strike on the road outside of the UNRWA school. The school itself only suffered superficial shrapnel damage to its perimeter wall.
This makes the statement by US State Department Spokeswoman Jen Psaki which expresses the US' outrage at the killing of civilians by Israeli artillery fire at a UNRWA school all the more peculiar. I personally am taking it as a sign that Obama and Kerry are yet to find that good grace.
Saturday, 2 August 2014
My Brother's Keeper: Month 2, Week 2, Day 7.
Yesterday night Israel's cabinet met in a marathon five hour session to discuss the nation's response to Hamas' breaking of a cease-fire that morning which left two Israeli soldiers dead and one missing presumed kidnapped. Obviously at a time of war the details of this meeting are being kept secret but the scene was rather well set by Yochanan Gordon's spectacular Times of Israel article "When Genocide is Permissible" although I think that title was missing a question mark.
Essentially within the Israeli government you have the moderate centrists led by the Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu who wish to conduct the current operation in accordance with Jewish values of freedom and justice by keeping an adherence to international law and humanitarian concern for the Palestinian people at the fore. Pushing against them you have extreme religious, Zionist parties such as Jewish Home who along with the more extreme wing of Likud want to use this conflict as an excuse to destroy Gaza so they can take control of its natural gas reserves and build some nice beach-front holiday homes. The extremists hand will only have been strenghend by Hamas' actions which have left the Israeli public in a state of outrage that is hard to imagine.
Further strengthening the extremists hand has been the relentless international anti-Israel propaganda campaign that this operation has triggered. Despite the fact that Israel has gone to great lengths to improve the conduct of its military and drawn up a battle-plan intended to minimise the risk to civilians everyone only seems interested in re-living the arguments and criticisms of 2008/9's Operation Cast Lead. A lot of the photographs I'm seeing on Twitter of supposed Israeli atrocities were out of date when I saw them being passed around during Cast Lead and some of them aren't even from Gaza at all. This propaganda has fuelled public opinion leading to calls for tough action against Israel from nations such as Saudi Arabia and Qatar who simply want to unseat Israel from its position as the region's dominant power. Faced with such an onslaught of hate many Israelis have got to be questioning why they should bother paying such a high price both in monetary terms and in the lives of their soldiers to protect Palestinian lives when they are going to be vilified as murderers whatever they do.
During this cabinet meeting the Israeli Defence Forces (IDF) provided a demonstration of what they are capable of should the kid gloves come off by heavily attacking the southern town of Rafah and the Tuffah district of Gaza City. To their credit the IDF seem to have moved away from artillery fire. The one image of flattened buildings that news channels keep showing to illustrate the destruction of Gaza is actually of one city block in the Shejayia district of Gaza City that was destroyed on July 20th (20/7/14). That destruction was caused by artillery fire.
Instead the IDF have been focusing on air-strikes although gone are the telephone warnings and 'roof-knocks' that warn residents to evacuate. Although both types of weapon are being used the IDF seem to be favouring largish guided bombs over Hellfire-type missiles which can be fired through a window to target occupants of a single apartment while leaving the rest of the building unscathed. As a result there was an increased amount of property damage and an increase in civilian casualties as entire buildings were demolished leading to another gore-fest. However as always seems to be the case on social media the same Palestinian child can apparently die a dozen times over.
At the end of this onslaught Hamas confirmed that it did indeed break the cease-fire by attacking and attempting to kidnap an IDF soldier although it is now claiming that its fighters and the IDF soldier were killed in the immediate aftermath. This could well be true because it is one of the objectives of the IDF's response under the Hannibal protocol. However at this point I think Hamas would say just about anything to distance themselves from the incident and as far as I can tell they haven't provided the IDF with the last known co-ordinates of the fighters and their hostage so their remains can be recovered.
For those of you who are wondering I am referring to this soldier as "kidnapped" rather then "captured" is because if he had been captured Hamas would have registered him as a prisoner of war with the International Commission of the Red Cross (ICRC) and would release him at the end of the conflict. US President Obama's announcement that "We tortured some folks" seemed like a deliberate attempt to inflame Israeli public opinion further because it is telling that Israel thinks that a soldier is better off dead than as a Hamas hostage.
So far today it appears that the moderates within the Israeli government have continued to win out against the extremists. The IDF have announced that it will be withdrawing from Beit Lahia allowing residents to return to the area. This is consistent with the plan of dealing with the Gaza Strip in small sections allowing civilians to move between non-combat zones in order to stay safe. There have even being rumours that Israel is preparing to withdraw entirely from Gaza having completed their mission. I think this could be possible because having identified 30 or so Hamas tunnels the IDF has spent the last week surveying and mapping those tunnels meaning that they are now able to destroy them at a rate of three to four per day.
I am though a little worried that Israel may be tempted to rush into ending the mission. That is because victory in this operation is not going to come from some telegenic moment where the victors raise their flag over the enemy's HQ but from a tedious spread-sheet showing how much of Hamas' offensive military capabilities have been destroyed.
16:05 on 2/8/14 (UK date).
Essentially within the Israeli government you have the moderate centrists led by the Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu who wish to conduct the current operation in accordance with Jewish values of freedom and justice by keeping an adherence to international law and humanitarian concern for the Palestinian people at the fore. Pushing against them you have extreme religious, Zionist parties such as Jewish Home who along with the more extreme wing of Likud want to use this conflict as an excuse to destroy Gaza so they can take control of its natural gas reserves and build some nice beach-front holiday homes. The extremists hand will only have been strenghend by Hamas' actions which have left the Israeli public in a state of outrage that is hard to imagine.
Further strengthening the extremists hand has been the relentless international anti-Israel propaganda campaign that this operation has triggered. Despite the fact that Israel has gone to great lengths to improve the conduct of its military and drawn up a battle-plan intended to minimise the risk to civilians everyone only seems interested in re-living the arguments and criticisms of 2008/9's Operation Cast Lead. A lot of the photographs I'm seeing on Twitter of supposed Israeli atrocities were out of date when I saw them being passed around during Cast Lead and some of them aren't even from Gaza at all. This propaganda has fuelled public opinion leading to calls for tough action against Israel from nations such as Saudi Arabia and Qatar who simply want to unseat Israel from its position as the region's dominant power. Faced with such an onslaught of hate many Israelis have got to be questioning why they should bother paying such a high price both in monetary terms and in the lives of their soldiers to protect Palestinian lives when they are going to be vilified as murderers whatever they do.
During this cabinet meeting the Israeli Defence Forces (IDF) provided a demonstration of what they are capable of should the kid gloves come off by heavily attacking the southern town of Rafah and the Tuffah district of Gaza City. To their credit the IDF seem to have moved away from artillery fire. The one image of flattened buildings that news channels keep showing to illustrate the destruction of Gaza is actually of one city block in the Shejayia district of Gaza City that was destroyed on July 20th (20/7/14). That destruction was caused by artillery fire.
Instead the IDF have been focusing on air-strikes although gone are the telephone warnings and 'roof-knocks' that warn residents to evacuate. Although both types of weapon are being used the IDF seem to be favouring largish guided bombs over Hellfire-type missiles which can be fired through a window to target occupants of a single apartment while leaving the rest of the building unscathed. As a result there was an increased amount of property damage and an increase in civilian casualties as entire buildings were demolished leading to another gore-fest. However as always seems to be the case on social media the same Palestinian child can apparently die a dozen times over.
At the end of this onslaught Hamas confirmed that it did indeed break the cease-fire by attacking and attempting to kidnap an IDF soldier although it is now claiming that its fighters and the IDF soldier were killed in the immediate aftermath. This could well be true because it is one of the objectives of the IDF's response under the Hannibal protocol. However at this point I think Hamas would say just about anything to distance themselves from the incident and as far as I can tell they haven't provided the IDF with the last known co-ordinates of the fighters and their hostage so their remains can be recovered.
For those of you who are wondering I am referring to this soldier as "kidnapped" rather then "captured" is because if he had been captured Hamas would have registered him as a prisoner of war with the International Commission of the Red Cross (ICRC) and would release him at the end of the conflict. US President Obama's announcement that "We tortured some folks" seemed like a deliberate attempt to inflame Israeli public opinion further because it is telling that Israel thinks that a soldier is better off dead than as a Hamas hostage.
So far today it appears that the moderates within the Israeli government have continued to win out against the extremists. The IDF have announced that it will be withdrawing from Beit Lahia allowing residents to return to the area. This is consistent with the plan of dealing with the Gaza Strip in small sections allowing civilians to move between non-combat zones in order to stay safe. There have even being rumours that Israel is preparing to withdraw entirely from Gaza having completed their mission. I think this could be possible because having identified 30 or so Hamas tunnels the IDF has spent the last week surveying and mapping those tunnels meaning that they are now able to destroy them at a rate of three to four per day.
I am though a little worried that Israel may be tempted to rush into ending the mission. That is because victory in this operation is not going to come from some telegenic moment where the victors raise their flag over the enemy's HQ but from a tedious spread-sheet showing how much of Hamas' offensive military capabilities have been destroyed.
16:05 on 2/8/14 (UK date).
Friday, 1 August 2014
My Brother's Keeper: Month 2, Week 2, Day 6.
At around 21:30 (23:30 local) yesterday (31/7/14) the United Nations (UN) and the United States (US) announced that a cease-fire had been agreed between Israel and Hamas. Over the next couple of hours both Hamas and then Israel agreed to the cease-fire.
That cease-fire was scheduled to begin at 05:00 (08:00 local) today and was set to last 72 hours until 05:00 (08:00) on Monday (4/8/14). During that time Israeli Defence Force (IDF) troops would remain in position and continue their work destroying Hamas' tunnel network. They would also return fire if fired upon. The cease-fire would also allow for talks between Hamas and Israel to begin in Egypt.
There are obviously a number of humanitarian advantages to a cease-fire not least because it would give civilians are break from the constant horrors of war. It would also have give local hospitals, Gazan emergency services and local relief agencies an opportunity to re-stock and begin making repairs to Gaza's civilian infrastructure including the water supply and sewage treatment services. Most importantly though it would have given the United Nations Relief Works Agency (UNRWA) time to reorganise their operations.
At a dramatic UN Security Council (UNSC) briefing yesterday the UNRWA and it's parent body the UN Office for the Co-ordination of Humanitarian Affairs (UNOCHA) admitted that its response to the conflict has fallen well below the required standard. As a result it is struggling to cope with the some 240,000 Gazans who have been internally displaced by the fighting. Fortunately UNRWA doesn't have to operate in Israel where some 300,000 people have been internally displaced. The UNRWA main problem seems to be that it is operating as if all of Gaza was a combat zone and is therefore sheltering people from across Gaza. However only around 45% of Gaza is actually experiencing combat so UNRWA could do a better job of making sure that people aren't being needlessly evacuated from areas where there isn't fighting putting needless pressure on their resources.
My main concern about the cease-fire was that Hamas seemed to be viewing it not as a humanitarian exercise but part of a tactical plan to gain a battlefield advantage. In the first instance any cease-fire allows Hamas the time it desperately needs to re-organise its forces to better fight the IDF in the future. As Hamas has no chance of winning this conflict that would only serve to prolong the fighting causing more death and humanitarian suffering.
In the second instance Hamas seemed intent on provoking Israel into breaking the cease-fire. That would then be used to increase international pressure on Israel through the UN. After all the UK holds the Presidency of the UNSC in August, UNRWA representative in Gaza Chris Gunness is British as is Valerie Amos the head of UNOCHA.
Hamas seemed to lay the groundwork for this provocation yesterday evening with a large - by their standards - offensive against southern Israel which has not received a moment of coverage in the British media or on CNN. As is common with most militarys in circumstances such as these the IDF grant themselves a 24 hour grace period so they can inform the relevant soldiers families in person. However it appears that Hamas knocked out power and communication systems across a wide area of southern Israel in and around the town of Sdot Negev. They then opened fire with barrages of mortar fire to act as a cover for multiple tunnel raids into Israel to kill or kidnap Israeli soldiers or civilians. They succeeded in killing 5 IDF soldiers and there are persistent rumours that 1 IDF solider has been kidnapped.
Whenever a solider in whatever army is killed or kidnapped the first reaction of the other soldiers in their unit is to retaliate hard and fast against the enemy. As such the sole purpose of this Hamas offensive seems to have been to provoke Israel into hitting back hard against Gaza either breaking any cease-fire or expanding their operations in Gaza maximising the civilian casualties. This escalation would then be exploited in order to increase international pressure on Israel. Prior to the start of the offensive Hamas put out multiple statements talking of an imminent victory.
As it turns out Hamas had to break the cease-fire themselves. Just one hour into the cease-fire (around 06:00/09:00) Hamas launched a mortar barrage against an IDF position near the town of Rafah. As this attack was eerily similar to the start of the attack near Sdot Negev the IDF returned fire in order to protect themselves. This was rapidly followed up by Hamas rocket fire into Israel leading the Israeli government to declare the cease-fire breached and therefore over.
Hopefully talks can continue in Egypt because Hamas must have realised that if they continue to fight both Israel and Egypt whilst severely straining their relationship with both Iran and Hezbollah they will ultimately end up destroying themselves.
11:15 on 1/8/14 (UK date).
Edited at around 19:10 on 1/8/14 (UK date) to add;
As I was writing the above the IDF confirmed that one of their soldiers had indeed been kidnapped close to Rafah in an incident that began just 64 minutes into the cease-fire. What appears to have happened is that Hamas' offensive at Sdot Negev failed so they simply continued their attempts into the cease-fire.
So far Hamas have yet to confirm that they kidnapped the soldier because they've suddenly realised that this was a very, very stupid thing to do and are now trying to sow the seeds of doubt that they were responsible. However it is quite clear what their intention was;
In the event that a soldier is kidnapped the IDF immediately invoke what is known as the "Hannibal Protocol." This is so well established it was actually briefly referenced in episode 4 of "The Honourable Woman." Acting rather like a no hostage agreement it allows IDF commanders to use any and all force (within international law) to prevent the taking of a hostage. This includes the killing their own soldier and if Ariel Sharon was still in power I honestly think that he would have nuked Gaza by this point.
However what Hamas were hoping for is that the IDF would respond with largely indiscriminate use of air-power and artillery fire before kicking down every door in Gaza. The hope being that the large civilian death toll this would have produced would have triggered the members of the international community who have a clear anti-Israeli agenda to increase pressure on Israel to stop their demolition of Hamas' military infrastructure. Failing that Hamas are obviously holding the kidnapped soldier within their underground tunnel network in the hope that this will discourage Israel from dismantling that network any further.
As of yet Israel haven't really responded to the kidnapping although it's cabinet is meeting as I write. As the kidnapping has clearly been carried out to alter the dynamic of the conflict I think Israel's best response would be to continue as if the kidnapping had never happened. As such I prefer not to think of the missing solider as kidnapped by simply as the first soldier into the tunnel.
That cease-fire was scheduled to begin at 05:00 (08:00 local) today and was set to last 72 hours until 05:00 (08:00) on Monday (4/8/14). During that time Israeli Defence Force (IDF) troops would remain in position and continue their work destroying Hamas' tunnel network. They would also return fire if fired upon. The cease-fire would also allow for talks between Hamas and Israel to begin in Egypt.
There are obviously a number of humanitarian advantages to a cease-fire not least because it would give civilians are break from the constant horrors of war. It would also have give local hospitals, Gazan emergency services and local relief agencies an opportunity to re-stock and begin making repairs to Gaza's civilian infrastructure including the water supply and sewage treatment services. Most importantly though it would have given the United Nations Relief Works Agency (UNRWA) time to reorganise their operations.
At a dramatic UN Security Council (UNSC) briefing yesterday the UNRWA and it's parent body the UN Office for the Co-ordination of Humanitarian Affairs (UNOCHA) admitted that its response to the conflict has fallen well below the required standard. As a result it is struggling to cope with the some 240,000 Gazans who have been internally displaced by the fighting. Fortunately UNRWA doesn't have to operate in Israel where some 300,000 people have been internally displaced. The UNRWA main problem seems to be that it is operating as if all of Gaza was a combat zone and is therefore sheltering people from across Gaza. However only around 45% of Gaza is actually experiencing combat so UNRWA could do a better job of making sure that people aren't being needlessly evacuated from areas where there isn't fighting putting needless pressure on their resources.
My main concern about the cease-fire was that Hamas seemed to be viewing it not as a humanitarian exercise but part of a tactical plan to gain a battlefield advantage. In the first instance any cease-fire allows Hamas the time it desperately needs to re-organise its forces to better fight the IDF in the future. As Hamas has no chance of winning this conflict that would only serve to prolong the fighting causing more death and humanitarian suffering.
In the second instance Hamas seemed intent on provoking Israel into breaking the cease-fire. That would then be used to increase international pressure on Israel through the UN. After all the UK holds the Presidency of the UNSC in August, UNRWA representative in Gaza Chris Gunness is British as is Valerie Amos the head of UNOCHA.
Hamas seemed to lay the groundwork for this provocation yesterday evening with a large - by their standards - offensive against southern Israel which has not received a moment of coverage in the British media or on CNN. As is common with most militarys in circumstances such as these the IDF grant themselves a 24 hour grace period so they can inform the relevant soldiers families in person. However it appears that Hamas knocked out power and communication systems across a wide area of southern Israel in and around the town of Sdot Negev. They then opened fire with barrages of mortar fire to act as a cover for multiple tunnel raids into Israel to kill or kidnap Israeli soldiers or civilians. They succeeded in killing 5 IDF soldiers and there are persistent rumours that 1 IDF solider has been kidnapped.
Whenever a solider in whatever army is killed or kidnapped the first reaction of the other soldiers in their unit is to retaliate hard and fast against the enemy. As such the sole purpose of this Hamas offensive seems to have been to provoke Israel into hitting back hard against Gaza either breaking any cease-fire or expanding their operations in Gaza maximising the civilian casualties. This escalation would then be exploited in order to increase international pressure on Israel. Prior to the start of the offensive Hamas put out multiple statements talking of an imminent victory.
As it turns out Hamas had to break the cease-fire themselves. Just one hour into the cease-fire (around 06:00/09:00) Hamas launched a mortar barrage against an IDF position near the town of Rafah. As this attack was eerily similar to the start of the attack near Sdot Negev the IDF returned fire in order to protect themselves. This was rapidly followed up by Hamas rocket fire into Israel leading the Israeli government to declare the cease-fire breached and therefore over.
Hopefully talks can continue in Egypt because Hamas must have realised that if they continue to fight both Israel and Egypt whilst severely straining their relationship with both Iran and Hezbollah they will ultimately end up destroying themselves.
11:15 on 1/8/14 (UK date).
Edited at around 19:10 on 1/8/14 (UK date) to add;
As I was writing the above the IDF confirmed that one of their soldiers had indeed been kidnapped close to Rafah in an incident that began just 64 minutes into the cease-fire. What appears to have happened is that Hamas' offensive at Sdot Negev failed so they simply continued their attempts into the cease-fire.
So far Hamas have yet to confirm that they kidnapped the soldier because they've suddenly realised that this was a very, very stupid thing to do and are now trying to sow the seeds of doubt that they were responsible. However it is quite clear what their intention was;
In the event that a soldier is kidnapped the IDF immediately invoke what is known as the "Hannibal Protocol." This is so well established it was actually briefly referenced in episode 4 of "The Honourable Woman." Acting rather like a no hostage agreement it allows IDF commanders to use any and all force (within international law) to prevent the taking of a hostage. This includes the killing their own soldier and if Ariel Sharon was still in power I honestly think that he would have nuked Gaza by this point.
However what Hamas were hoping for is that the IDF would respond with largely indiscriminate use of air-power and artillery fire before kicking down every door in Gaza. The hope being that the large civilian death toll this would have produced would have triggered the members of the international community who have a clear anti-Israeli agenda to increase pressure on Israel to stop their demolition of Hamas' military infrastructure. Failing that Hamas are obviously holding the kidnapped soldier within their underground tunnel network in the hope that this will discourage Israel from dismantling that network any further.
As of yet Israel haven't really responded to the kidnapping although it's cabinet is meeting as I write. As the kidnapping has clearly been carried out to alter the dynamic of the conflict I think Israel's best response would be to continue as if the kidnapping had never happened. As such I prefer not to think of the missing solider as kidnapped by simply as the first soldier into the tunnel.
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