Despite the best advice of everyone around them Iran appears to have been dazzled by the bright lights of high-level talks and agreed a deal on its nuclear program after 5 days of talks in Geneva, Switzerland. Perhaps one of the things that fooled Iran into this agreement was the claim that it is only an interim deal time-limited to six months. However even a cursory glance of the details reveals that is simply not the case.
Put simply Iran has agreed to freeze all uranium enrichment activity and the operation of its plutonium plant at Arak. It has also agreed to begin destroying its existing uranium enrichment centrifuges and destroy it's stockpiles of more then 5% enriched uranium under international inspections regime.
In return for this commitment from Iran you would have expected major and significant concessions on the comprehensive global sanctions on Iran's oil and banking sectors that are costing Iran roughly USD4bn per month. These sanctions are basically the product of an Obama brain fart and have an extremely negative effect on the region and the global oil market including the largest oil consumer - the US. Unfortunately all Iran's negotiators have managed to secure is lifting of USD1.5bn in sanctions on oil and gold, the return of USD4.5bn of oil revenues that are being withheld from the Iranian government and USD400m in cash aid for Iranian students living abroad. These are all to be paid in a controlled fashion over the course of a year so can be halted in response to Iranian non-compliance. They are of course also significantly less then the USD48bn the sanctions will cost Iran in that time.
So basically Iran simply cannot deliver on what it has promised especially its commitment to destroy already enriched uranium and centrifuges. As a result when Iran comes to the next round of talks in six months they will have a big black mark against them at a time when they really should be challenging the current European Union (EU) led P5+1 model for talks. After all a P3+1 model with observer status granted to the EU would certainly help smooth discussions between the major players.
12:50 on 24/11/13 (UK date).
Edited at around 14:45 on 24/11/13 to add; With Iran dropping a turd of this size into the water it is obviously going to take a little while for the ripples to work their way though.
However the first attempt at a Geneva deal on the weekend on November 9th (9/11/13) was all US led. The intention was to get to Iran to agree to some technical sounding but not particularly meaningful commitments on its nuclear program and receive some small but impressive sounding financial concessions in return. This of course would lock Iran into the EU led P5+1 Framework. Mainly though it would disrupt the the COP19/CMP9 Summit by getting everyone to search for the secret details of the deal and make people demand to know why Iran was allowed a nuclear energy program and money while they were not. Fortunately Iran stood up to the pressure and no such deal was reached.
This latest round of Geneva talks was very much led by Catherine Ashton the British Baroness who also holds the office of the EU's Special Representative for External Affairs. The intention here was to appeal to European anti-American sentiments by being seen to retaliate against John Kerry's effective tricking of Foreign Ministers into attending the last round of talks. It was also meant to appeal to more right-wing elements within the EU by disrupting the COP19/CMP9. With the EU being one of the few to maintain its Kyoto emissions targets this has become a growing source of tension amongst EU member states. Mainly though the purpose of the talks was to give Iran's great regional rival Saudi Arabia access to the talks through the overlap with the COP19/CMP9.
The fact that Iran managed to not only lock themselves into the EU led P5+1 Framework but also agreed to an extremely bad deal was entirely their fault. After all anyone who has followed Iranian nuclear talks knows Iran's negotiators can be extremely hard work because they never seem to have an end game to their plans.
In fact the Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov's decision to attend this latest round of talks seemed to be an attempt to explain to the Iranians in person that they really needed to stop demanding ministerial level talks on an issue where discretion is the better part of valour. As for Kerry's decision to respond by also attending the talks I honestly don't think there was much of a thought process behind it. However coming on the back of a failed 9 month operation that was intended to put the US back at the centre of global politics the US seems desperate to take any intelligence it could get by increasing the disruption of the COP19/CMP9.
Sunday, 24 November 2013
Friday, 22 November 2013
The #JFK Assassination.
With obvious apologises to Poland because hosting a COP/CMP Summit is a feat that makes herding cats look easy I promised myself that I wouldn't make a post marking the 50th anniversary of the JFK assassination. However with current US President Barack Obama's CNN approval ratings dropping to an all time low of 41% I feel this represents a teachable moment for a certain someone.
So allow me to clear my throat, straighten my back and say;
"Would you look at that. By convincing him there will be disastrous consequences if he acts they've managed to get him to defeat himself!!!"
21:10 on 22/11/13.
So allow me to clear my throat, straighten my back and say;
"Would you look at that. By convincing him there will be disastrous consequences if he acts they've managed to get him to defeat himself!!!"
21:10 on 22/11/13.
The Porch Saga.
I suppose I should tell this story now because it has some vague connection with technical solutions reducing ghg intensity through architecture/urban design.
For as long as I can remember my house has had a vestibule porch separating the front door everyone sees from the street from the actual front door of the building. This porch is built of brick, timber and single pane glass. Over the years the weather has got into the timber wearing it out so my father decided to replace the timber with a - I believe UPVC- frame and the glass with double glazing units. This new design should reduce the heat loss thus reducing the amount of natural gas needed to heat the property.
Rather then being done as a properly planned and costed construction project this is being done through friends. As a result a few months ago it was all measured up and the design sent off to a manufacturer for construction. All the pieces were delivered on Wednesday (20/11/13) so I should have been spending today helping to assemble it all which isn't actually as painful as it sounds. Unfortunately the manufacturer screwed up the design with the door opening to the wrong side of the frame. As a result we are now entering into a lengthy negotiation about who should pay to replace the defective double glazing units/frame. I obviously vote the manufacturer but failing that the Notting Hill Housing Trust (NHHT). After all this wouldn't be the first double glazing unit they've unexpectedly had to pay to replace recently.
As a result of all this I'm still trying to catch up with what has happened in the world since I went to bed. However it's clear that one of the big stories has been the collapse of a supermarket in Riga, Latvia that has killed at least 33 people. This actually helps to highlight the way in which the green development strategies being developed at the COP19/CMP9 can have wider social benefits. For example bringing in international verfied environmental construction rules will help strengthen over all construction rules in developing nations helping prevent this sort of tragedy.
Latvia is of course one of those nations that is getting squeezed between an expanding European Union (EU) and Russia in a situation that is being massively complicated by the Syria conflict. For example in response to Russia's anti-promotion of homosexuality laws the UK's gay community banned Stolichnaya vodka from all its outlets. Stolichnaya vodka of course comes from Riga in Latvia.
So in summary the COP19/CMP9 summit was never going to end with the signing of some great international agreement. As it enters into its final hours we are still holding out hope that it will result in some very small and technical improvements along with a consensus that the SBI and the SBSTA should at least be allowed to grow their budgets in line with their increased work load.
12:55 on 22/11/13 (UK date).
For as long as I can remember my house has had a vestibule porch separating the front door everyone sees from the street from the actual front door of the building. This porch is built of brick, timber and single pane glass. Over the years the weather has got into the timber wearing it out so my father decided to replace the timber with a - I believe UPVC- frame and the glass with double glazing units. This new design should reduce the heat loss thus reducing the amount of natural gas needed to heat the property.
Rather then being done as a properly planned and costed construction project this is being done through friends. As a result a few months ago it was all measured up and the design sent off to a manufacturer for construction. All the pieces were delivered on Wednesday (20/11/13) so I should have been spending today helping to assemble it all which isn't actually as painful as it sounds. Unfortunately the manufacturer screwed up the design with the door opening to the wrong side of the frame. As a result we are now entering into a lengthy negotiation about who should pay to replace the defective double glazing units/frame. I obviously vote the manufacturer but failing that the Notting Hill Housing Trust (NHHT). After all this wouldn't be the first double glazing unit they've unexpectedly had to pay to replace recently.
As a result of all this I'm still trying to catch up with what has happened in the world since I went to bed. However it's clear that one of the big stories has been the collapse of a supermarket in Riga, Latvia that has killed at least 33 people. This actually helps to highlight the way in which the green development strategies being developed at the COP19/CMP9 can have wider social benefits. For example bringing in international verfied environmental construction rules will help strengthen over all construction rules in developing nations helping prevent this sort of tragedy.
Latvia is of course one of those nations that is getting squeezed between an expanding European Union (EU) and Russia in a situation that is being massively complicated by the Syria conflict. For example in response to Russia's anti-promotion of homosexuality laws the UK's gay community banned Stolichnaya vodka from all its outlets. Stolichnaya vodka of course comes from Riga in Latvia.
So in summary the COP19/CMP9 summit was never going to end with the signing of some great international agreement. As it enters into its final hours we are still holding out hope that it will result in some very small and technical improvements along with a consensus that the SBI and the SBSTA should at least be allowed to grow their budgets in line with their increased work load.
12:55 on 22/11/13 (UK date).
Thursday, 21 November 2013
Operation Misery: Month 9, Week 3, Day 3.
Rihanna is indeed in Detroit, Michigan filming the video for "The Monster" alongside Eminem. Although we only know of this through a single picture posted on Eminem's Instagram/Twitter I suspect the story of the song since its release means that this was an awkward first meeting for all involved. Also I think that neither party is particularly happy to hear from me at the moment. I think that's a shame because I've always had tremendous respect for Eminem. In fact it's almost like we're family. Unfortunately though that is the Munchhausen's family so you know things can get a little rough.
The other big development of yesterday (20/11/13) is that Chris Brown did make his first Court appearance since his recent arrest as scheduled. The first revelation of this hearing is that Brown was actually kicked out of the rehab facility he had checked himself into after smashing up his mother's car during a violent outburst on November 10th (10/11/13). The second big revelation is that the Judge did not once again fail to take any action and instead ordered Chris Brown to spend a further 90 days in a Court mandated rehab facility. Brown is set to return to Court on December 16th (16/11/13) where the issue of his arrest in Washington D.C will be addressed.
The purpose of sending Chris Brown for a mandatory 90 day stay in rehab was of course supposed to be interpreted as a sign that the US is now getting tough with him and are starting to reconsider the plan to reunite Chris Brown in Rihanna. In reality though this has completely the opposite effect of just extending the operation. That's because unless the Court takes the further action of instating a 10 year restraining order keeping Brown away from Rihanna in 90 days he will simply be back on the streets with a big sympathy vote and doctors reports to back up his claim that he's changed. Over the course of those 90 days I do not see any possibility of Rihanna's current path changing meaning that the restraining order is the minimum action available to the Court.
In further efforts to convince us that the US was starting to reconsider the plan to reunite Chris Brown and Rihanna and add more complexity to the situation Chris Brown's Court ruling was accompanied by a shooting at an apartment complex in Houston, Texas that left three dead and two wounded. The intention here was to give the impression that the faction of the US Establishment that was opposed to the resumption of Rihanna's relationship with Chris Brown had scored a victory over the faction that supports it - the so-called 'Whitney Houston faction.' This is of course a nonsense because while there may well be factions the faction opposed to the Brown/Rihanna reunion is so ineffective it may as well not exist.
There was also a strange incident in which a Boeing 747 cargo carrying replacement parts for the Boeing 787 Dreamliner landed at an airport in Wichita, Kansas which is far too small to handle to handle an aircraft of that size. So there is now an excited wait to see if the plane will ever get off the ground again and if the 'Dreamliner' will ever get the replacement parts it need. The 'Dreamliner' has long been used as a code for the Brown/Rihanna relationship so this is intended to create speculation that the US may be reconsidering the plan.
On a completely unrelated note but also happening yesterday police in France managed to apprehend their suspect in the recent Paris shootings. Named as Abdelhakim Dekhar the suspect is a general reference to any number of Islamist militants operating in Libya, Algeria, Mali, Nigeria etc. This is of course the region that hosted the famous Paris to Dakar Rally until it had to be relocated to South America due to terrorism. The issue of whether DNA samples recovered match the suspect is a specific reference to Mokhtar Belmokhtar who masterminded the raid on the In Amenas gas facility. At the time he was said to be killed but now people are talking about him still being alive. Ideally we'd like DNA confirmation. The fact that Dekhar had been involved in a previous high profile shooting incident is a reference to the George Zimmerman case in the US.
I should finish by saying to the French's credit they really did tone this story right down the moment they were challenged on it. That is certainly a lot more then can be said for certain other people.
13:05 on 21/11/13 (UK date).
The other big development of yesterday (20/11/13) is that Chris Brown did make his first Court appearance since his recent arrest as scheduled. The first revelation of this hearing is that Brown was actually kicked out of the rehab facility he had checked himself into after smashing up his mother's car during a violent outburst on November 10th (10/11/13). The second big revelation is that the Judge did not once again fail to take any action and instead ordered Chris Brown to spend a further 90 days in a Court mandated rehab facility. Brown is set to return to Court on December 16th (16/11/13) where the issue of his arrest in Washington D.C will be addressed.
The purpose of sending Chris Brown for a mandatory 90 day stay in rehab was of course supposed to be interpreted as a sign that the US is now getting tough with him and are starting to reconsider the plan to reunite Chris Brown in Rihanna. In reality though this has completely the opposite effect of just extending the operation. That's because unless the Court takes the further action of instating a 10 year restraining order keeping Brown away from Rihanna in 90 days he will simply be back on the streets with a big sympathy vote and doctors reports to back up his claim that he's changed. Over the course of those 90 days I do not see any possibility of Rihanna's current path changing meaning that the restraining order is the minimum action available to the Court.
In further efforts to convince us that the US was starting to reconsider the plan to reunite Chris Brown and Rihanna and add more complexity to the situation Chris Brown's Court ruling was accompanied by a shooting at an apartment complex in Houston, Texas that left three dead and two wounded. The intention here was to give the impression that the faction of the US Establishment that was opposed to the resumption of Rihanna's relationship with Chris Brown had scored a victory over the faction that supports it - the so-called 'Whitney Houston faction.' This is of course a nonsense because while there may well be factions the faction opposed to the Brown/Rihanna reunion is so ineffective it may as well not exist.
There was also a strange incident in which a Boeing 747 cargo carrying replacement parts for the Boeing 787 Dreamliner landed at an airport in Wichita, Kansas which is far too small to handle to handle an aircraft of that size. So there is now an excited wait to see if the plane will ever get off the ground again and if the 'Dreamliner' will ever get the replacement parts it need. The 'Dreamliner' has long been used as a code for the Brown/Rihanna relationship so this is intended to create speculation that the US may be reconsidering the plan.
On a completely unrelated note but also happening yesterday police in France managed to apprehend their suspect in the recent Paris shootings. Named as Abdelhakim Dekhar the suspect is a general reference to any number of Islamist militants operating in Libya, Algeria, Mali, Nigeria etc. This is of course the region that hosted the famous Paris to Dakar Rally until it had to be relocated to South America due to terrorism. The issue of whether DNA samples recovered match the suspect is a specific reference to Mokhtar Belmokhtar who masterminded the raid on the In Amenas gas facility. At the time he was said to be killed but now people are talking about him still being alive. Ideally we'd like DNA confirmation. The fact that Dekhar had been involved in a previous high profile shooting incident is a reference to the George Zimmerman case in the US.
I should finish by saying to the French's credit they really did tone this story right down the moment they were challenged on it. That is certainly a lot more then can be said for certain other people.
13:05 on 21/11/13 (UK date).
Wednesday, 20 November 2013
COP19/CMP9: Wednesday 20/11/13.
Yesterday (19/11/13) I commented on Twitter that the daily overview schedule for this year's summit is not the most useful document of this type I have ever come across. To some extent this seems to have triggered off that long running argument about public access that is always in the background. After all there are parties who are infuriated that this type of summit is even going on let alone that people like me are allowed to learn about and even get involved in it.
Therefore I feel I should start by pointing out that this year I've experienced very little problem getting hold of relevant documents. What I have experienced though is a great deal of trouble in finding the time to read and comprehend all these documents. After all you need to do a lot of background reading to even understand what the texts being circulated daily mean. For example today in between putting together the not strictly speaking necessary Rihanna post, the Greenpeace post and some really dull but time consuming domestic chores I've only been able to read the intial overview document on the Durban Platform for Adaptation (ADP). In fact if I'm being honest by the time I'd got on to the bit about transparency it had stopped going into my brain so I sort of gave up.
However tomorrow sees the final working day on the ADP before the results can be presented on Friday's (22/11/13) final day. Therefore I feel I should make some comment about it now. I should stress though that because I've not in any meaningful way followed the progress of the ADP since the opening of the summit this is really just my own ideas rather then a response to anything that has been said.
The main problem that strikes me is that it seems to be following the framework of the Kyoto Protocol which to be blunt did not work. Basically this sees nations divided into either rich nations or poor nations. The rich nations are expected to cap their greenhouse gas (ghg) emissions whilst providing money to the poor nations who allowed to continue growing their emissions while spending the money on development projects. This notion is based on the somewhat valid idea that the rich nations became rich nations by emitting ghg's that are now threatening the poor nations - a sort of historical debt. The problem is that the rich nations simply will not agree to this approach and the poor nations are in no position to force them to.
So although you only need to read the past nine months of this blog to see how the rich nations have been trying to collapse this summit the poor nations insistence that the rich nations must pay to settle this historical debt is also becoming a major barrier to progress. From the glimpses I've seen China appear to be leading this effort most probably in an attempt to avoid being reclassified as a rich nation. This is not only bad news for the entire planet but also could end up hampering poor nations development.
Take for example the area of mitigation. Here rich nations are expected to submit Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Commitments (NAMC's) which are simply self-decided reductions in ghg gas emissions. Certain nations *coughs* the US *coughs* are simply not going to set these targets or set them so low as to be meaningless. On the other hand poor nations are expected to submit Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Actions (NAMA's). These are much more complicated and require the poor nations to explain to the rich nations exactly how they intend to economically develop themselves whilst reducing the ghg intensity of their economies. Given the way that certain rich nations have been behaving recently I and quite a few poor nations are more then a little worried that the rich nations won't be using this information to help the poor nations.
Therefore I think a better approach would be for all nations to submit NAMA's. That way the rich nations demands for information from the poor nations would be tempered by the amount of information they're prepared to give out about themselves creating a balance that helps build trust. It would also give a more accurate picture of global ghg intensity providing a more accurate starting point from which to negotiate reductions. It would also give rich nations incentive to undertake joined up green development strategies rather then simply chasing targets. Target chasing is of course how the UK responded to Kyoto and ended up getting themselves into quite a serious mess as a result.
Similarly in adaptation the rich nations seem to be expected to provide the latest technological developments to the poor nations either for free or at a heavy subsidy. In return the poor nations are expected to produce National Action Plan's (NAP's) explaining to the rich nations exactly how they plan to adapt to environmental hazards. Again I think it would be better for all nations to submit NAP's. That not only reduces the alarmingly imbalanced flow of information from poor nations to rich nations it also allows the poor nations the advantage of seeing what the rich nations are actually doing rather then what they just recommend to poor nations. The dumping of genetically modified crops on the developing world is a particular example of this.
The Green Climate Fund (GCF) was actually conceived specifically to allow the transfer of green technology without creating the culture of dependency between rich and poor nations. That's because there are actually many private companies who have developed green technologies off their own backs and now need to sell them to people in order to cover their costs. The only problem is the difference between the price the seller has to charge and the buyer can afford to pay. This can be solved with a variety of financial instruments such as loan guarantees that don't involve rich nations having to give poor nations cash.
On that last point I should mention that rather randomly today I've mostly been watching contributions from Bolivia who seem to have taken over the role of global village idiot from Venezuela. On both occasions I have seen a Bolivian delegate speak they have first raged against the rich nations for not giving them any money before loudly rejecting any market based system that would give them some money. That is not the path to a productive outcome.
23:15 on 20/11/13 (UK date).
Therefore I feel I should start by pointing out that this year I've experienced very little problem getting hold of relevant documents. What I have experienced though is a great deal of trouble in finding the time to read and comprehend all these documents. After all you need to do a lot of background reading to even understand what the texts being circulated daily mean. For example today in between putting together the not strictly speaking necessary Rihanna post, the Greenpeace post and some really dull but time consuming domestic chores I've only been able to read the intial overview document on the Durban Platform for Adaptation (ADP). In fact if I'm being honest by the time I'd got on to the bit about transparency it had stopped going into my brain so I sort of gave up.
However tomorrow sees the final working day on the ADP before the results can be presented on Friday's (22/11/13) final day. Therefore I feel I should make some comment about it now. I should stress though that because I've not in any meaningful way followed the progress of the ADP since the opening of the summit this is really just my own ideas rather then a response to anything that has been said.
The main problem that strikes me is that it seems to be following the framework of the Kyoto Protocol which to be blunt did not work. Basically this sees nations divided into either rich nations or poor nations. The rich nations are expected to cap their greenhouse gas (ghg) emissions whilst providing money to the poor nations who allowed to continue growing their emissions while spending the money on development projects. This notion is based on the somewhat valid idea that the rich nations became rich nations by emitting ghg's that are now threatening the poor nations - a sort of historical debt. The problem is that the rich nations simply will not agree to this approach and the poor nations are in no position to force them to.
So although you only need to read the past nine months of this blog to see how the rich nations have been trying to collapse this summit the poor nations insistence that the rich nations must pay to settle this historical debt is also becoming a major barrier to progress. From the glimpses I've seen China appear to be leading this effort most probably in an attempt to avoid being reclassified as a rich nation. This is not only bad news for the entire planet but also could end up hampering poor nations development.
Take for example the area of mitigation. Here rich nations are expected to submit Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Commitments (NAMC's) which are simply self-decided reductions in ghg gas emissions. Certain nations *coughs* the US *coughs* are simply not going to set these targets or set them so low as to be meaningless. On the other hand poor nations are expected to submit Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Actions (NAMA's). These are much more complicated and require the poor nations to explain to the rich nations exactly how they intend to economically develop themselves whilst reducing the ghg intensity of their economies. Given the way that certain rich nations have been behaving recently I and quite a few poor nations are more then a little worried that the rich nations won't be using this information to help the poor nations.
Therefore I think a better approach would be for all nations to submit NAMA's. That way the rich nations demands for information from the poor nations would be tempered by the amount of information they're prepared to give out about themselves creating a balance that helps build trust. It would also give a more accurate picture of global ghg intensity providing a more accurate starting point from which to negotiate reductions. It would also give rich nations incentive to undertake joined up green development strategies rather then simply chasing targets. Target chasing is of course how the UK responded to Kyoto and ended up getting themselves into quite a serious mess as a result.
Similarly in adaptation the rich nations seem to be expected to provide the latest technological developments to the poor nations either for free or at a heavy subsidy. In return the poor nations are expected to produce National Action Plan's (NAP's) explaining to the rich nations exactly how they plan to adapt to environmental hazards. Again I think it would be better for all nations to submit NAP's. That not only reduces the alarmingly imbalanced flow of information from poor nations to rich nations it also allows the poor nations the advantage of seeing what the rich nations are actually doing rather then what they just recommend to poor nations. The dumping of genetically modified crops on the developing world is a particular example of this.
The Green Climate Fund (GCF) was actually conceived specifically to allow the transfer of green technology without creating the culture of dependency between rich and poor nations. That's because there are actually many private companies who have developed green technologies off their own backs and now need to sell them to people in order to cover their costs. The only problem is the difference between the price the seller has to charge and the buyer can afford to pay. This can be solved with a variety of financial instruments such as loan guarantees that don't involve rich nations having to give poor nations cash.
On that last point I should mention that rather randomly today I've mostly been watching contributions from Bolivia who seem to have taken over the role of global village idiot from Venezuela. On both occasions I have seen a Bolivian delegate speak they have first raged against the rich nations for not giving them any money before loudly rejecting any market based system that would give them some money. That is not the path to a productive outcome.
23:15 on 20/11/13 (UK date).
Greenpeace's #Arctic30 Bail Hearings.
Throughout this week Russia has been holding bail hearings for 30 Greenpeace activists from 18 nations who were arrested aboard the Arctic Sunrise ship on September 19th 2013 (2013) and initially charged with piracy. Those charges were then lowered to hooliganism and so far 18 have been bailed, 1 has been remanded in custody, 5 will have their cases heard later in the week and I don't think even Greenpeace know what is going on with the other 6.
Coming during the high level segment of the COP19/CMP9 these sudden grants of bail are supposed to signal that Russia is taking a softer position on measures to tackle climate change. After all the point Greenpeace was trying to make is that Russia has long accepted that greenhouse gas emissions are causing global warming and that warming is causing Arctic sea ice to melt. However rather then taking action to prevent this Russia seems to have actually been trying to speed it up in order to take advantage of the melting ice opening up new shipping lanes and making Arctic oil easier to access. So by being gentle on the Greenpeace activists Russia is trying to send the message that it may be reconsidering that position.
Obviously this message has been tempered somewhat by the sheer confusion the bail hearings have caused. For example no-one is quite sure if the activists have been granted conditional bail or unconditional bail or whether they will be allowed Russia before their trial. Also there is the question of whether Russia is trying to hold onto the one activist whose been denied bail and those who were given the option to apply for bail in order to punish or maintain channels of communication with certain nations.
I am prepared to make allowances for Russia on this because since the start of the Saudi and Qatari invasion of Syria Russia has come under relentless pressure from all quarters. For example this protest by a Greenpeace ship with a majority UK Commonwealth crew does not strike me as the groups wisest move. As a result Russia is now on its version of a global charm offensive in order to repair its reputation. The most worrying element of this have been the increasing overtures Russia has been making towards Egypt. On one level this is just Russia tying to make friends while the US seems hellbent on destroying its reputation in the region. However it also seems intended to send the message to the Saudis and the Qataris that if Russia can find a replacement Mediterranean sea port it will be happy to press ahead with this chemical weapons destruction scheme giving the Saudis and Qataris exactly what they want.
On a barely related topic that I'm including here because it's hardly worth a full post the UK's efforts to disrupt the COP19/CMP9 has obviously been my case and its aftermath. I've decided not to aid them by commenting on this anymore then I have to. However one international element has been the case of chronically obese Frenchman Kevin Chenais. Chenais was due to fly back from the US to France last month but UK airline British Airways refused to transport him because he was too fat. After lengthy discussions he was flown to the UK last week by another UK airline Virgin Atlantic. Today he tried to return to France via the Eurostar but was told he was too fat to fit in the Channel Tunnel. Finally the UK owned ferry company P&O agreed to sail him back to France and Eurostar provided an ambulance to take him to the port. This is all the UK trying to assess how people feel about lifted the long standing travel restrictions on me. That's because the UK is now very keen for me to able to fly off and meet off with Rihanna. It's almost as if certain people have failed to generate the intelligence product they were supposed to.
In slightly better and actual COP19/CMP9 news Norway (USD135million), the UK (USD120million) and the US (USD25million) have together pledged USD280million for a new scheme they are calling the BioCarbon Fund Initiative for Sustainable Forest Landscapes (ISFL) which will contribute to the REDD+. Although no-one's in a position to complain about any money that's being pledged at the pointI hope this will be a stop-gap measure while the Green Climate Fund (GCF) gets up and running rather then a rival to it.
18:00 on 20/11/13 (UK date).
Coming during the high level segment of the COP19/CMP9 these sudden grants of bail are supposed to signal that Russia is taking a softer position on measures to tackle climate change. After all the point Greenpeace was trying to make is that Russia has long accepted that greenhouse gas emissions are causing global warming and that warming is causing Arctic sea ice to melt. However rather then taking action to prevent this Russia seems to have actually been trying to speed it up in order to take advantage of the melting ice opening up new shipping lanes and making Arctic oil easier to access. So by being gentle on the Greenpeace activists Russia is trying to send the message that it may be reconsidering that position.
Obviously this message has been tempered somewhat by the sheer confusion the bail hearings have caused. For example no-one is quite sure if the activists have been granted conditional bail or unconditional bail or whether they will be allowed Russia before their trial. Also there is the question of whether Russia is trying to hold onto the one activist whose been denied bail and those who were given the option to apply for bail in order to punish or maintain channels of communication with certain nations.
I am prepared to make allowances for Russia on this because since the start of the Saudi and Qatari invasion of Syria Russia has come under relentless pressure from all quarters. For example this protest by a Greenpeace ship with a majority UK Commonwealth crew does not strike me as the groups wisest move. As a result Russia is now on its version of a global charm offensive in order to repair its reputation. The most worrying element of this have been the increasing overtures Russia has been making towards Egypt. On one level this is just Russia tying to make friends while the US seems hellbent on destroying its reputation in the region. However it also seems intended to send the message to the Saudis and the Qataris that if Russia can find a replacement Mediterranean sea port it will be happy to press ahead with this chemical weapons destruction scheme giving the Saudis and Qataris exactly what they want.
On a barely related topic that I'm including here because it's hardly worth a full post the UK's efforts to disrupt the COP19/CMP9 has obviously been my case and its aftermath. I've decided not to aid them by commenting on this anymore then I have to. However one international element has been the case of chronically obese Frenchman Kevin Chenais. Chenais was due to fly back from the US to France last month but UK airline British Airways refused to transport him because he was too fat. After lengthy discussions he was flown to the UK last week by another UK airline Virgin Atlantic. Today he tried to return to France via the Eurostar but was told he was too fat to fit in the Channel Tunnel. Finally the UK owned ferry company P&O agreed to sail him back to France and Eurostar provided an ambulance to take him to the port. This is all the UK trying to assess how people feel about lifted the long standing travel restrictions on me. That's because the UK is now very keen for me to able to fly off and meet off with Rihanna. It's almost as if certain people have failed to generate the intelligence product they were supposed to.
In slightly better and actual COP19/CMP9 news Norway (USD135million), the UK (USD120million) and the US (USD25million) have together pledged USD280million for a new scheme they are calling the BioCarbon Fund Initiative for Sustainable Forest Landscapes (ISFL) which will contribute to the REDD+. Although no-one's in a position to complain about any money that's being pledged at the pointI hope this will be a stop-gap measure while the Green Climate Fund (GCF) gets up and running rather then a rival to it.
18:00 on 20/11/13 (UK date).
Operation Misery: Month 9, Week 3, Day 2.
Just as I was going to bed on Monday (18/11/13) night paparazzi pictures of Rihanna out and about in New York City started to emerged. Apart from the new black bob Rihanna was wearing 1970's style black leather flared trousers, a black leather 1970's style trenchcoat and let's just say a black fabric T-shirt.
Some people have suggested that this made her look like Whitney Houston. Although Whitney Houston did wear a similar style trenchcoat and hairstyle in the video for one of her later singles I think the outfit was mainly a reference to the uniform of the US Black Panther movement of the 1960's and 1970's. Their agenda of black empowerment obviously had huge resonance in the South African anti-apartheid movement which under the leadership of Winnie Mandela at the time was not quite as warm and cuddly as everybody likes to remember. As a result the black leather trenchcoat sort of became a symbol of resistance across the western world during what was really the golden age of international terrorism.
There is also a widely held conspiracy theory that the CIA flooded the US' black, urban population with cocaine and heroin in order to destroy the Black Panther movement. Whitney Houston of course died after decades of cocaine abuse and as I've been saying for a long time Rihanna's CIA handlers/Live Nation (the management) have been trying to get Rihanna hooked on cocaine in order to make sure she meets the same fate as Whitney Houston. So while I can't help but be a little impressed by Rihanna's choice of outfit it hardly fits with my recommendation that she keeps a low profile politically.
While she was out and about in New York Rihanna made a point of making sure that paparazzi saw her visiting a tattoo parlour where she picked up some miscellaneous bits and pieces. The main purpose of the visit though was to draw attention to the fact that Rihanna has started having the early work done on her left hand for a tattoo similar to the cover up job she recently had done on her right hand. The hope seems to be that if the tattoos match it will make the right-handed tattoo look less ugly. I obviously think that it will just make it doubly ugly. Therefore Rihanna getting yet another tattoo could be interpreted as an act of defiance of me and my views.
On Tuesday (19/11/13) there was further defiance with Melissa Forde posting on Instagram/Twitter a picture of her sitting with her feet up on a private jet eating popcorn. Obviously with no indication of where she was headed or why a picture that simply indicates Rihanna's core social group are on a plane causes more problems then it solves. I like to think that the popcorn was intended to indicate that Forde was going to enjoy sitting back and watching what management had assured her would be a very stressful evening for me. I of course responded by mocking her homosexuality.
A few hours later Rihanna posted a picture on Instagram only of her herself together with Forde in what could be a hotel room or could be a private jet. The picture claimed that the pair were in Detroit and the flight times would broadly support that. The fact that Rihanna didn't re-post that image on Twitter so I could see it immediately along with her failure to offer any evidence to support the claim that she was in Detroit could well be interpreted as further acts of defiance against me.
We are of course still awaiting confirmation that Rihanna is indeed in Detroit along with the bullsh*t excuse as to why she is in Detroit. However the intention is to create speculation that Rihanna is in Eminem's home town to work on the video for the song "The Monster." The issue of whether the management have given Rihanna permission to work with one of the Eminem's is of course a conversational mine field. There is also hope that Rihanna's presence in Detroit will be viewed as having some connection to the race issues brought up in the ongoing Theodore Wafer/Renisha McBride case which is of course being further complicated by the subsequent arrest of George Zimmerman.
Obviously I didn't find out about Rihanna's Instagram picture until about four hours after it had happened. As a result I though it might have had some bearing on my decision to ignore Tweets from both Cara Delevinge and Chris Brown. As it turns it didn't and that's just sort of what my brain does when I really should have gone to bed 20 minutes earlier.
12:00 on 20/11/13 (UK date).
Some people have suggested that this made her look like Whitney Houston. Although Whitney Houston did wear a similar style trenchcoat and hairstyle in the video for one of her later singles I think the outfit was mainly a reference to the uniform of the US Black Panther movement of the 1960's and 1970's. Their agenda of black empowerment obviously had huge resonance in the South African anti-apartheid movement which under the leadership of Winnie Mandela at the time was not quite as warm and cuddly as everybody likes to remember. As a result the black leather trenchcoat sort of became a symbol of resistance across the western world during what was really the golden age of international terrorism.
There is also a widely held conspiracy theory that the CIA flooded the US' black, urban population with cocaine and heroin in order to destroy the Black Panther movement. Whitney Houston of course died after decades of cocaine abuse and as I've been saying for a long time Rihanna's CIA handlers/Live Nation (the management) have been trying to get Rihanna hooked on cocaine in order to make sure she meets the same fate as Whitney Houston. So while I can't help but be a little impressed by Rihanna's choice of outfit it hardly fits with my recommendation that she keeps a low profile politically.
While she was out and about in New York Rihanna made a point of making sure that paparazzi saw her visiting a tattoo parlour where she picked up some miscellaneous bits and pieces. The main purpose of the visit though was to draw attention to the fact that Rihanna has started having the early work done on her left hand for a tattoo similar to the cover up job she recently had done on her right hand. The hope seems to be that if the tattoos match it will make the right-handed tattoo look less ugly. I obviously think that it will just make it doubly ugly. Therefore Rihanna getting yet another tattoo could be interpreted as an act of defiance of me and my views.
On Tuesday (19/11/13) there was further defiance with Melissa Forde posting on Instagram/Twitter a picture of her sitting with her feet up on a private jet eating popcorn. Obviously with no indication of where she was headed or why a picture that simply indicates Rihanna's core social group are on a plane causes more problems then it solves. I like to think that the popcorn was intended to indicate that Forde was going to enjoy sitting back and watching what management had assured her would be a very stressful evening for me. I of course responded by mocking her homosexuality.
A few hours later Rihanna posted a picture on Instagram only of her herself together with Forde in what could be a hotel room or could be a private jet. The picture claimed that the pair were in Detroit and the flight times would broadly support that. The fact that Rihanna didn't re-post that image on Twitter so I could see it immediately along with her failure to offer any evidence to support the claim that she was in Detroit could well be interpreted as further acts of defiance against me.
We are of course still awaiting confirmation that Rihanna is indeed in Detroit along with the bullsh*t excuse as to why she is in Detroit. However the intention is to create speculation that Rihanna is in Eminem's home town to work on the video for the song "The Monster." The issue of whether the management have given Rihanna permission to work with one of the Eminem's is of course a conversational mine field. There is also hope that Rihanna's presence in Detroit will be viewed as having some connection to the race issues brought up in the ongoing Theodore Wafer/Renisha McBride case which is of course being further complicated by the subsequent arrest of George Zimmerman.
Obviously I didn't find out about Rihanna's Instagram picture until about four hours after it had happened. As a result I though it might have had some bearing on my decision to ignore Tweets from both Cara Delevinge and Chris Brown. As it turns it didn't and that's just sort of what my brain does when I really should have gone to bed 20 minutes earlier.
12:00 on 20/11/13 (UK date).
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