I've yet to fully check all my hard-disks but everything appears to be OK. This is good news because having been working on my briefing for the next leg of Rihanna's Diamonds World Tour my house has been at particular risk of unlawful search and seizure this evening. Even though I've only got as far as Israel this great effort means that I've now got around three hours of news to catch up on.
One event I am aware of though is the UK Home Secretary's (Interior Minister) remarks on the detention of David Miranda - the gay lover of Guardian 'journalist' Glenn Greenwald at Heathrow airport under Schedule 7 of the Terrorism Act 2000. Although the story touches on the concerns that strike us all when Rihanna attempts to cross international borders, the Edward Snowden saga, the recent world athletics championships in Moscow and it's effects on Russia's anti-gay propaganda legislation, the current situation in Egypt, Brazil's hosting of the 2014 football World Cup and the 2016 Summer Olympic games and my very dull upcoming Court appearance this story really struck me as the UK screaming "Look At US We're Still Relevant!!!!!!" leading me to become instantly get bored of it. However I found the Home Secretary's comments highly amusing. Speaking about the independence of the police that prevents the Home Secretary directly intervening in a police investigation the Home Secretary said something along the lines of; "I'm very grateful to live in a society in which such a rule exists." Prompting the obvious response of "No Sh*t!"
Of course being the sort to scare easily the element of the Miranda stunt that relates to my upcoming Court appearance has set my father all a flutter. If I can make it work we might sit down together later to watch the DVDR of that police interview together but then I might not bother. After all I don't see Samsonite rushing to do an endorsement deal with Sarastro any time soon.
19:20 on 20/8/13.
Edited at around 22:55 on 20/8/13 to add;
This evening I have been watching the DVDR of my police interview. Annoyingly I discovered that the content is copy protected which is a shame because otherwise I would not only have uploaded it to YouTube but burned a couple of copies to leave behind the bar at the local. However with all this Greenwald nonsense going on I feel compelled to point out that I was being held and questioned under the 1984 Police And Criminal Evidence Act. Specifically the July 10th (10/7/12) update of Code C. I strongly recommend that members of the Egyptian security forces read up on this document. Off the top of my head I would say that it allows suspects to be held for up to 36 hours in a single occupancy cell (so they've got no-one to talk to). During those 36 hours they can be questioned continuously in 2 hour sessions broken up by a 15 minute break. Whilst being interviewed you cannot be forced to stand but if you need to go to the bathroom during those 2 hours you can be forced to soil yourself. During your detention you have to be offered food 4 times. However there is no obligation for you to actually be provided with that food. Thinking about it I was quite 'lucky' to only have to put up with roughly 15 hours of detention and 30 minutes of interview.
Or to put it another way; "Glenn Greenwald is such a raging homo he could easily be mistaken for Peter Mandelson."
Tuesday, 20 August 2013
Monday, 19 August 2013
Egypt's Continuing Revolution: Month 14, Week 4, Day 4.
The big news in Egypt today is the sensational announcement that former President Hosni Mubarak has been cleared of corruption charges and with no other outstanding allegations or convictions could be released from prison by the end of the week. In fact some sources initially reported that he'd already been released from prison. To me this seems very much like an attempt to promote discussion.
On the international level - particularly at today's special meeting of European Union (EU) Ambassadors - this was intended to promote discussion about how ridiculous the EU's demand that former President Mohamed Morsi is released from prison during the current state of emergency sounds. I don't know if the EU Ambassadors picked up on this point but they have called a special meeting of EU Foreign Ministers for Wednesday (21/8/13) to discuss Egypt. Despite all the talk of arms embargoes and suspension of aid money this primarily seems aimed at making sure that all voices within the EU are heard rather than being drowned out by militants such as the UK who seem intent on turning discussions about Egypt into discussions about Syria. For their part Saudi Arabia knowing which way the wind is blowing have pledged their support for Egypt's interim government of national unity and offered to make up for any EU aid money that is lost. This of course could also be a Saudi attempt to strengthen the Muslim Brotherhood who see themselves as mortal enemies of the Gulf Monarchs despite the strong Sunni bonds. So we shall see if the suspension of EU aid actually materialises and then if Saudi Arabia make good on their pledge. For their part the UK is trying to get the ball rolling on EU sanctions by announcing that it is ending all security co-operation with Egypt. As there is actually very little security co-operation between Egypt and the UK this is pretty meaningless in practical terms. It also seems a little odd because with the sudden re-emergence of the Climate Camp movement at an anti-fracking protest in Balcombe, UK leading up to this weekends Notting Hill Carnival it certainly looked as though the UK was trying to increase its influence with Egypt's government by giving it advice on how to police the Brotherhood camps that were cleared last week.
Within Egypt the Mubarak announcement was intended to start a national discussion about how far the Egyptian people would be prepared to go in reinstating Mubarak era security measures in order to combat the Muslim Brotherhood and other Islamist terror groups along with the general level of violence and insecurity on Egypt's streets. Obviously a complete return to the Mubarak era would be completely unacceptable. However the complete disregard for law and order and security shown by the Morsi government is not the mark of a revolution. It is the mark of a failed state. As I mentioned in response to the re-opening of the Interior Ministry's department to monitor political and religious extremists one possible solution would be to re-open aspects of Mubarak's security apparatus but only allow them to act against groups that pose a real threat of violence rather than groups that merely hold a view that the government of the day doesn't agree with. After all as regular readers will know all too well even in supposedly democratic countries such as the UK political dissent has its limits.
Sadly the decision of how far the Egypt's security forces will have to go may not be their choice or even the choice of the Egyptian people. Instead it will be the choice of the Muslim Brotherhood and other terrorist groups because the more violence they are prepared to use the more restrictive the security forces will have to be in order to protect the Egyptian people. I actually think that has been the Brotherhoods long term plan all along. They mount increasingly violent attacks forcing the security forces to become ever more repressive. The Brotherhood then decry this repression as a return to the rule of Mubarak in the hope of getting anti-SCAF protesters and anti-Mubarak revolutionaries to join the Brotherhood in their quest to get their choice of dictator reinstated.
Although there is yet no evidence of a direct link to the Muslim Brotherhood another example of the general level of violence Egypt's security forces are facing came today in the Sinai with the killing of 25 off-duty police officers. According to the official report the two mini-buses in which the police officers were travelling were struck by Rocket Propelled Grenades (RPG) killing those on board. However based on some photographs from the scene it appears that the RPG's were just the opening salvo in a longer ambush which saw some of the police officers being taken off the mini-buses before being tied up and executed at the side of the road. It is curious that the Secretary General of the United Nations has called for yesterday's similar events at the Abu Zabaal prison to be investigated but seems to have little interest in finding out who carried out today's attack.
In slightly more positive news apart from a small disturbance in Sharqiya at dawn there is little evidence of the second day of the Brotherhoods planned week of protests actually taking place.
20:55 on 19/8/13.
On the international level - particularly at today's special meeting of European Union (EU) Ambassadors - this was intended to promote discussion about how ridiculous the EU's demand that former President Mohamed Morsi is released from prison during the current state of emergency sounds. I don't know if the EU Ambassadors picked up on this point but they have called a special meeting of EU Foreign Ministers for Wednesday (21/8/13) to discuss Egypt. Despite all the talk of arms embargoes and suspension of aid money this primarily seems aimed at making sure that all voices within the EU are heard rather than being drowned out by militants such as the UK who seem intent on turning discussions about Egypt into discussions about Syria. For their part Saudi Arabia knowing which way the wind is blowing have pledged their support for Egypt's interim government of national unity and offered to make up for any EU aid money that is lost. This of course could also be a Saudi attempt to strengthen the Muslim Brotherhood who see themselves as mortal enemies of the Gulf Monarchs despite the strong Sunni bonds. So we shall see if the suspension of EU aid actually materialises and then if Saudi Arabia make good on their pledge. For their part the UK is trying to get the ball rolling on EU sanctions by announcing that it is ending all security co-operation with Egypt. As there is actually very little security co-operation between Egypt and the UK this is pretty meaningless in practical terms. It also seems a little odd because with the sudden re-emergence of the Climate Camp movement at an anti-fracking protest in Balcombe, UK leading up to this weekends Notting Hill Carnival it certainly looked as though the UK was trying to increase its influence with Egypt's government by giving it advice on how to police the Brotherhood camps that were cleared last week.
Within Egypt the Mubarak announcement was intended to start a national discussion about how far the Egyptian people would be prepared to go in reinstating Mubarak era security measures in order to combat the Muslim Brotherhood and other Islamist terror groups along with the general level of violence and insecurity on Egypt's streets. Obviously a complete return to the Mubarak era would be completely unacceptable. However the complete disregard for law and order and security shown by the Morsi government is not the mark of a revolution. It is the mark of a failed state. As I mentioned in response to the re-opening of the Interior Ministry's department to monitor political and religious extremists one possible solution would be to re-open aspects of Mubarak's security apparatus but only allow them to act against groups that pose a real threat of violence rather than groups that merely hold a view that the government of the day doesn't agree with. After all as regular readers will know all too well even in supposedly democratic countries such as the UK political dissent has its limits.
Sadly the decision of how far the Egypt's security forces will have to go may not be their choice or even the choice of the Egyptian people. Instead it will be the choice of the Muslim Brotherhood and other terrorist groups because the more violence they are prepared to use the more restrictive the security forces will have to be in order to protect the Egyptian people. I actually think that has been the Brotherhoods long term plan all along. They mount increasingly violent attacks forcing the security forces to become ever more repressive. The Brotherhood then decry this repression as a return to the rule of Mubarak in the hope of getting anti-SCAF protesters and anti-Mubarak revolutionaries to join the Brotherhood in their quest to get their choice of dictator reinstated.
Although there is yet no evidence of a direct link to the Muslim Brotherhood another example of the general level of violence Egypt's security forces are facing came today in the Sinai with the killing of 25 off-duty police officers. According to the official report the two mini-buses in which the police officers were travelling were struck by Rocket Propelled Grenades (RPG) killing those on board. However based on some photographs from the scene it appears that the RPG's were just the opening salvo in a longer ambush which saw some of the police officers being taken off the mini-buses before being tied up and executed at the side of the road. It is curious that the Secretary General of the United Nations has called for yesterday's similar events at the Abu Zabaal prison to be investigated but seems to have little interest in finding out who carried out today's attack.
In slightly more positive news apart from a small disturbance in Sharqiya at dawn there is little evidence of the second day of the Brotherhoods planned week of protests actually taking place.
20:55 on 19/8/13.
Sunday, 18 August 2013
Operation Misery: Month 6, Week 2, Day 5(ish)
I apologise for the delay but I feel I've already more than covered this here; http://watchitdie.blogspot.co.uk/2013/08/operation-misery-month-6-week-2-day-3.html
Anyway on Friday (16/8/13) a Los Angeles Court heard the latest round of Chris Brown's probation hearings. I've not seen the papers but I gather that the Court ruled that there was significant reason to believe that Chris Brown had not completed the roughly 180 days of community service that he was sentenced to after pleading guilty to the 2009 assault of Rihanna. However crucially the Court stopped short of ruling that Brown had committed multiple criminal offences of perverting the course of justice, fraud and bribing public officials in the course of failing to complete his sentence. As a result the Court merely sentenced Brown to a further 1000 hours of community service to be served within California rather than West Virginia. This would represent an opportunity to complete his original sentence but unfortunately the Court failed to reinstate the restraining order keeping Brown away from Rihanna. Therefore this was Brown's handlers continuing to protect him for the reasons I explained in my previous post on the subject. The figure of 1000 hours of community to service was chosen because it sounds like a really big number that makes it look like the Court was being really tough on Brown although I seem to remember 15+ years in prison adding up to slightly more than 1000 hours.
Of course Brown's handlers currently seem unable to admit they've made a terrible mistake. However when they do I suggest that the US Attorney General's office take on the case to prosecute Brown for the multiple felonies he has committed across state lines. After all I would hate for Brown's team to argue that all legal routes have been exhausted.
As for Rihanna she is still in New York on the other side of the US. On Saturday (17/8/13) she flew down to Miami, US to attend the wrap party for Jay-Z and Justin Timberlake's ill conceived "Legends of the Summer" tour. This was of course a long planned stunt intended to show that the 'community containment' of Chris Brown is working although I have to say that the effort it is taking to make sure that Rihanna can't sleep in her own bed rather proves that the community is completely failing to protect Rihanna from Brown.
However for years to come I'm sure that the handlers will claim that it was all a clever trick to help calm down the situation in Egypt. You see although I've always been a big fan of a Burn Notice globally Miami is probably most famous for the US TV Show "CSI:Miami" the theme tune of which is "Won't Get Fooled Again" by UK band "The Who." With a chorus talking of "Tipping a hat to the new constitution" and "Taking a file for the new revolution" you would think that this song perfectly sums up the Egyptian people's attitude to the government of Morsi's Muslim Brotherhood. The first verse which talks about "Fighting in the street with the children at our feet" and "The men who spurred us on sit in judgement of our wrongs decided the shotgun sounds the song" sounds like a particular effort to discourage women from joining in with the anti-government protests. However I think the general tone of the song is to cynical to be of much use in Egypt. Good job it's only the handlers bullsh*tting then.
I'm not stoned(!)
00:15 on 19/8/13.
Anyway on Friday (16/8/13) a Los Angeles Court heard the latest round of Chris Brown's probation hearings. I've not seen the papers but I gather that the Court ruled that there was significant reason to believe that Chris Brown had not completed the roughly 180 days of community service that he was sentenced to after pleading guilty to the 2009 assault of Rihanna. However crucially the Court stopped short of ruling that Brown had committed multiple criminal offences of perverting the course of justice, fraud and bribing public officials in the course of failing to complete his sentence. As a result the Court merely sentenced Brown to a further 1000 hours of community service to be served within California rather than West Virginia. This would represent an opportunity to complete his original sentence but unfortunately the Court failed to reinstate the restraining order keeping Brown away from Rihanna. Therefore this was Brown's handlers continuing to protect him for the reasons I explained in my previous post on the subject. The figure of 1000 hours of community to service was chosen because it sounds like a really big number that makes it look like the Court was being really tough on Brown although I seem to remember 15+ years in prison adding up to slightly more than 1000 hours.
Of course Brown's handlers currently seem unable to admit they've made a terrible mistake. However when they do I suggest that the US Attorney General's office take on the case to prosecute Brown for the multiple felonies he has committed across state lines. After all I would hate for Brown's team to argue that all legal routes have been exhausted.
As for Rihanna she is still in New York on the other side of the US. On Saturday (17/8/13) she flew down to Miami, US to attend the wrap party for Jay-Z and Justin Timberlake's ill conceived "Legends of the Summer" tour. This was of course a long planned stunt intended to show that the 'community containment' of Chris Brown is working although I have to say that the effort it is taking to make sure that Rihanna can't sleep in her own bed rather proves that the community is completely failing to protect Rihanna from Brown.
However for years to come I'm sure that the handlers will claim that it was all a clever trick to help calm down the situation in Egypt. You see although I've always been a big fan of a Burn Notice globally Miami is probably most famous for the US TV Show "CSI:Miami" the theme tune of which is "Won't Get Fooled Again" by UK band "The Who." With a chorus talking of "Tipping a hat to the new constitution" and "Taking a file for the new revolution" you would think that this song perfectly sums up the Egyptian people's attitude to the government of Morsi's Muslim Brotherhood. The first verse which talks about "Fighting in the street with the children at our feet" and "The men who spurred us on sit in judgement of our wrongs decided the shotgun sounds the song" sounds like a particular effort to discourage women from joining in with the anti-government protests. However I think the general tone of the song is to cynical to be of much use in Egypt. Good job it's only the handlers bullsh*tting then.
I'm not stoned(!)
00:15 on 19/8/13.
Egypt's Continuing Revolution: Month 14, Week 4, Day 3.
Today marked the start of the Muslim Brotherhood's promised week of demonstrations. The plan was that they would hold 8 marches across Cairo.
Six of these would start at various Mosques in Giza before converging outside the Supreme Constitutional Court close to Ramsis Square. Personally I would consider this as one march because it's an old western protest tactic dating back to at least the 1980's to have separate marches from various locations snaking around a city in order paralyse it before converging on a single location for an occupation/protest camp. The other two marches would start at undisclosed locations before converging on Roxy Square. As there is a cinema called "The Ritzy" in Windrush Square in Brixton, London, UK I think the intention here was to confuse the Egyptian security forces as to which of these protests would form the basis for the Brotherhood's new protest camp.
As it turns out the Brotherhood were forced to cancel the two Roxy Square marches citing 'security concerns.' I think this means that the Brotherhood were unable to raise enough supporters to stage all eight marches so instead attempted to concentrate their support on the one big march. However if you listen to the Brotherhood they claim that the two Roxy Square marches were cancelled because 'the routes were packed with the paid thugs and snipers of the Zionist puppet junta of the illegitimate putschist military dictatorship.' Either way the Brotherhood went on to call for supporters to stage nighttime protests against the curfew in cities across Egypt. As people the world over seem to be more happy into engage in violence after dark I would say this was a clear incitement to violence by the Brotherhood. Fortunately though only a limited number of people were prepared to answer this call mainly in the suburbs of Cairo and the security forces seem to be dealing with them with no injures or deaths being reported so far.
There has though been an apparent outbreak of serious violence at the Abu Zabaal prison in northern Cairo. According to the Muslim Brotherhood 38 of their "kidnapped" brethren were being transported in a prison van when it was attacked by "thugs" in the pay of the of 'the illegitimate putschist military dictatorship.' The Brotherhood's public statement was intended to challenge the assertion that they are terrorists by repeating Al Jazeera's oft repeated line that the 'illigitimate putschist military dictatorship' was using the "terrorist" label in order to deny Brotherhood prisoners due process under the law. However under martial law/state of emergency caused by the Brother what is meant by "due process" exactly is still very much up for debate.
According to pretty much every other source on the planet though what happened at Abu Zabaal prison is that around 40 Muslim Brotherhood prisoners instigated a small riot in order to take at least 1 prison guard hostage presumably in an effort to negotiate either their release or better conditions. In their rush to free their colleague the other prison guards rushed in all guns blazing killing 36 of the prisoners in the process. Although I doubt it was the prisoners plan this incident does rather play out Wednesday's camp clearances in microcosm. Although they are operating under extreme pressure from enemies both inside and outside of Egypt there is a general feeling that Egypt's security forces were too heavy handed in their rush to clear the camps and they need to tone it down in future.
On the plus side though roughly some 50 days after they refused to join the government of national unity the Brotherhood appear to be ready to come to the negotiating table. However it must be said if this is going to be their attitude they're not welcome.
21:35 on 18/8/13.
Six of these would start at various Mosques in Giza before converging outside the Supreme Constitutional Court close to Ramsis Square. Personally I would consider this as one march because it's an old western protest tactic dating back to at least the 1980's to have separate marches from various locations snaking around a city in order paralyse it before converging on a single location for an occupation/protest camp. The other two marches would start at undisclosed locations before converging on Roxy Square. As there is a cinema called "The Ritzy" in Windrush Square in Brixton, London, UK I think the intention here was to confuse the Egyptian security forces as to which of these protests would form the basis for the Brotherhood's new protest camp.
As it turns out the Brotherhood were forced to cancel the two Roxy Square marches citing 'security concerns.' I think this means that the Brotherhood were unable to raise enough supporters to stage all eight marches so instead attempted to concentrate their support on the one big march. However if you listen to the Brotherhood they claim that the two Roxy Square marches were cancelled because 'the routes were packed with the paid thugs and snipers of the Zionist puppet junta of the illegitimate putschist military dictatorship.' Either way the Brotherhood went on to call for supporters to stage nighttime protests against the curfew in cities across Egypt. As people the world over seem to be more happy into engage in violence after dark I would say this was a clear incitement to violence by the Brotherhood. Fortunately though only a limited number of people were prepared to answer this call mainly in the suburbs of Cairo and the security forces seem to be dealing with them with no injures or deaths being reported so far.
There has though been an apparent outbreak of serious violence at the Abu Zabaal prison in northern Cairo. According to the Muslim Brotherhood 38 of their "kidnapped" brethren were being transported in a prison van when it was attacked by "thugs" in the pay of the of 'the illegitimate putschist military dictatorship.' The Brotherhood's public statement was intended to challenge the assertion that they are terrorists by repeating Al Jazeera's oft repeated line that the 'illigitimate putschist military dictatorship' was using the "terrorist" label in order to deny Brotherhood prisoners due process under the law. However under martial law/state of emergency caused by the Brother what is meant by "due process" exactly is still very much up for debate.
According to pretty much every other source on the planet though what happened at Abu Zabaal prison is that around 40 Muslim Brotherhood prisoners instigated a small riot in order to take at least 1 prison guard hostage presumably in an effort to negotiate either their release or better conditions. In their rush to free their colleague the other prison guards rushed in all guns blazing killing 36 of the prisoners in the process. Although I doubt it was the prisoners plan this incident does rather play out Wednesday's camp clearances in microcosm. Although they are operating under extreme pressure from enemies both inside and outside of Egypt there is a general feeling that Egypt's security forces were too heavy handed in their rush to clear the camps and they need to tone it down in future.
On the plus side though roughly some 50 days after they refused to join the government of national unity the Brotherhood appear to be ready to come to the negotiating table. However it must be said if this is going to be their attitude they're not welcome.
21:35 on 18/8/13.
Saturday, 17 August 2013
Egypt's Continuing Revolution: Month 14, Week 4, Day 2.
Today Egypt's interim Prime Minister Hazem El-Bablawi (a civilian and former under-secretary general to the UN) addressed the nation following a week of violence. The main headline message of his speech is that Egypt's power sharing government is studying all legal options to dissolve the Muslim Brotherhood who have been operating as and NGO/charity since the fall of Mubarak. Essentially this would allow the government to seize or sequester the Brotherhoods property and assets making it very difficult for the organisation to operate.
This would be a big step though because it is likely that certain factions of the Brotherhood will respond by going underground and start to operate like a conventional terrorist organisation like the Jihadist groups that are currently operating in the Sinai. In a strange way this could actually be a good thing because the occasional car bombing would actually cause less disruption to everyday life then large protest marches paralysing the capital accompanied by sporadic outbreaks of violent rioting. The problem is that to ensure that the Brotherhood's attacks are limited to the occasional bombing Egypt will have to return to the repressive security measures of the Mubarak era which to my mind is equivalent to letting the Brotherhood win. Also having been forced to make very public statements in support of the Egyptian governments handling of the camp clearances I suspect the Gulf Monarchies particularly Saudi Arabia and Qatar will now be looking for a behind the scenes way of making life difficult for the Egyptian government. Providing newly formed Muslim Brotherhood terrorist cells with weapons, training and cash would be the classic way of going about it. Therefore I think any decision to dissolve the Muslim Brotherhood needs very careful consideration. After all even with Brotherhood being a legal organisation the Egyptian police can certainly put its members under surveillance and search buildings owned and used by them and arrests and seizures can be made where it's found crimes are being committed.
Overnight and while El-Bablawi was making his address to the nation a downright bizarre situation has been developing in Ramses Square in Cairo which rather demonstrates the current political situation in Egypt in microcosm. When the overnight curfew began yesterday evening Muslim Brotherhood supporters who had been fighting with the security forces and members of the public in the streets around Ramses Square decided to hole up on the Al-Fateh Mosque on the square. Local residents decided that this was an attempt by the Brotherhood to set up another camp in Ramses Square and surrounded the Mosque on mass threatening to burn it to the ground unless the vastly outnumbered Brotherhood supporters left. Fortunately at this point the police and military arrived on the scene and managed to keep the angry crowd from attacking the Mosque. The police and military then set about trying to evacuate the Brotherhood supporters from the scene for their own safety. Initially the Brotherhood supporters refused to leave and then started making demands of the police and military such as they wouldn't be searched as they left and their weapons wouldn't be confiscated. In places like the UK this sort of behaviour would normally lead to the Brotherhood supporters in the Mosque being locked up under the mental health act because they're clearly so delusional that they pose a danger to themselves.
If I was in charge of this negotiation after about 10 hours I would have given up, pulled the soldiers and police back and let the local residents get on with it. Fortunately the Egyptian commanders on the ground are clearly far more patient then I am and waited for around 14 hours before firing tear gas into the Mosque in a effort to encourage the Muslim Brotherhood supporters to leave. The Brotherhood supporters responded to this by opening fire on the police and soldiers with automatic weapons and positioning snipers in the Mosque's Minarets so they can open fire on the crowds gathered in the surrounding streets. This has led to the police and military being forced to mount a slow moving hostage rescue style operation in the Mosque in which the hostages they're trying to rescue are the same people who are trying to kill them.
15:10 on 17/8/13.
This would be a big step though because it is likely that certain factions of the Brotherhood will respond by going underground and start to operate like a conventional terrorist organisation like the Jihadist groups that are currently operating in the Sinai. In a strange way this could actually be a good thing because the occasional car bombing would actually cause less disruption to everyday life then large protest marches paralysing the capital accompanied by sporadic outbreaks of violent rioting. The problem is that to ensure that the Brotherhood's attacks are limited to the occasional bombing Egypt will have to return to the repressive security measures of the Mubarak era which to my mind is equivalent to letting the Brotherhood win. Also having been forced to make very public statements in support of the Egyptian governments handling of the camp clearances I suspect the Gulf Monarchies particularly Saudi Arabia and Qatar will now be looking for a behind the scenes way of making life difficult for the Egyptian government. Providing newly formed Muslim Brotherhood terrorist cells with weapons, training and cash would be the classic way of going about it. Therefore I think any decision to dissolve the Muslim Brotherhood needs very careful consideration. After all even with Brotherhood being a legal organisation the Egyptian police can certainly put its members under surveillance and search buildings owned and used by them and arrests and seizures can be made where it's found crimes are being committed.
Overnight and while El-Bablawi was making his address to the nation a downright bizarre situation has been developing in Ramses Square in Cairo which rather demonstrates the current political situation in Egypt in microcosm. When the overnight curfew began yesterday evening Muslim Brotherhood supporters who had been fighting with the security forces and members of the public in the streets around Ramses Square decided to hole up on the Al-Fateh Mosque on the square. Local residents decided that this was an attempt by the Brotherhood to set up another camp in Ramses Square and surrounded the Mosque on mass threatening to burn it to the ground unless the vastly outnumbered Brotherhood supporters left. Fortunately at this point the police and military arrived on the scene and managed to keep the angry crowd from attacking the Mosque. The police and military then set about trying to evacuate the Brotherhood supporters from the scene for their own safety. Initially the Brotherhood supporters refused to leave and then started making demands of the police and military such as they wouldn't be searched as they left and their weapons wouldn't be confiscated. In places like the UK this sort of behaviour would normally lead to the Brotherhood supporters in the Mosque being locked up under the mental health act because they're clearly so delusional that they pose a danger to themselves.
If I was in charge of this negotiation after about 10 hours I would have given up, pulled the soldiers and police back and let the local residents get on with it. Fortunately the Egyptian commanders on the ground are clearly far more patient then I am and waited for around 14 hours before firing tear gas into the Mosque in a effort to encourage the Muslim Brotherhood supporters to leave. The Brotherhood supporters responded to this by opening fire on the police and soldiers with automatic weapons and positioning snipers in the Mosque's Minarets so they can open fire on the crowds gathered in the surrounding streets. This has led to the police and military being forced to mount a slow moving hostage rescue style operation in the Mosque in which the hostages they're trying to rescue are the same people who are trying to kill them.
15:10 on 17/8/13.
Friday, 16 August 2013
Egypt's Continuing Revolution: Month 14, Week 4, Day 1.
On Thursday (15/8/13) evening Egypt's security forces moved into secure the Iman Mosque where the Muslim Brotherhood had been storing the majority of the bodies they claim had been killed during Wednesday's (14/8/13) clearance of the Brotherhoods camps. The purpose of this was to make sure that the dead could be passed on to the Ministry of Health so they could be counted and properly stored until they are claimed by relatives. Security forces also recovered a number of bodies that had been buried at the Rabea al-Adaweya Mosque camp. These new discoveries bring the total killed nationally on Wednesday to 638 although because the bodies had been moved it is impossible to tell exactly when and where they died. However a significant number of the 113 corpses had been burned beyond recognition suggesting that they died after fire engulfed the Rabea al-Adaweya camp. To me this really begs the question of what the Brotherhood thought what they were playing at when they started throwing petrol bombs around in what was effectively a tent city.
Also on Thursday night the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) met in a special closed door session to discuss events in Egypt on Wednesday. This was actually a very short meeting with only time for the UNSC members to be briefed on events by UNSC staffers and add any information they had gathered themselves before agreeing to release a short and bland statement that deplored the violence and called on all parties to avoid a repeat. Although it was a closed door session I suspect the main loser of the meeting was Turkish Prime Minister Erdogan who rather hysterically demanded the UNSC meet. This demand was driven mainly by the fact Erdogan had built the majority of his future political plans around there being a Muslim Brotherhood government in Egypt and is now very worried that the Turkish people backed by the Turkish military may follow Egypt's example and kick him and his Islamist policies out of office. Today France and Germany have successfully called for a European Union (EU) meeting to discuss Egypt. However this meeting is not likely to take place until the scheduled EU security summit on September 6/7th. Its main purpose seems to be to make sure that all EU member states get a say in how the EU reacts to the situation. That's because in times of crisis the office of the EU Commissioner for Foreign Affairs headed by British Baroness Ashdown can act with such a level of autonomy its position can be utterly removed from the views of the EU member states.
Today the Muslim Brotherhood have once again tried to paralyse Egypt by calling on people to march from every Mosque in the nation as part of a "Day of Anger and Rage." Primarily this served to demonstrate that being unable to concentrate their supporters in a very small area of Cairo the Muslim Brotherhood and their views actually represent a tiny minority of the Egyptian population. Small marches took place in Alexandria, Ismalia and Tanta in Gharbeya province but these were quickly and violently attacked by local residents. The security forces rather sensibly decided not to get involved in this instead opting to defend Coptic Churches and government buildings. Although the totals are still being totted up it appears that 25 people have been killed in clashes outside of the capital Cairo.
Cairo is of course where the Brotherhood focused the main part of their efforts with several marches taking place across the city all set to converge on Ramsis Square. Being well prepared the security forces actually did a very good job of stopping and containing these various marches at different parts of the city in order to prevent them forming one big march in Ramsis Square. The main trouble flared when two of the marches were stopped on the May 15th and October 6th bridges. On both of those bridges Brotherhood supporters were armed with assault rifles that they used to shoot passers-by, shoot at the security forces in order to provoke them into firing into the crowd or simply firing into the crowd themselves. As a result battles raged at the Ramsis Square side of both bridges leaving a confirmed 35 dead so far. However if you listen to the Muslim Brotherhood's version of events entirely peaceful protesters were gathered in Ramsis Square when military helicopter gunships flew over head strafing the crowd with machine gun fire killing hundreds.
Egypt is currently around two and half hours into a overnight curfew. My advice is for people to respect that curfew because the security forces will be strictly enforcing it to make sure that the violence ends for the day without the Brotherhood being able to set up a new camp in Cairo. Unfortunately the Brotherhood have called for an entire week of protest. However based on the numbers they brought to the streets today I don't see them being able to sustain that.
19:30 on 16/8/13.
Also on Thursday night the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) met in a special closed door session to discuss events in Egypt on Wednesday. This was actually a very short meeting with only time for the UNSC members to be briefed on events by UNSC staffers and add any information they had gathered themselves before agreeing to release a short and bland statement that deplored the violence and called on all parties to avoid a repeat. Although it was a closed door session I suspect the main loser of the meeting was Turkish Prime Minister Erdogan who rather hysterically demanded the UNSC meet. This demand was driven mainly by the fact Erdogan had built the majority of his future political plans around there being a Muslim Brotherhood government in Egypt and is now very worried that the Turkish people backed by the Turkish military may follow Egypt's example and kick him and his Islamist policies out of office. Today France and Germany have successfully called for a European Union (EU) meeting to discuss Egypt. However this meeting is not likely to take place until the scheduled EU security summit on September 6/7th. Its main purpose seems to be to make sure that all EU member states get a say in how the EU reacts to the situation. That's because in times of crisis the office of the EU Commissioner for Foreign Affairs headed by British Baroness Ashdown can act with such a level of autonomy its position can be utterly removed from the views of the EU member states.
Today the Muslim Brotherhood have once again tried to paralyse Egypt by calling on people to march from every Mosque in the nation as part of a "Day of Anger and Rage." Primarily this served to demonstrate that being unable to concentrate their supporters in a very small area of Cairo the Muslim Brotherhood and their views actually represent a tiny minority of the Egyptian population. Small marches took place in Alexandria, Ismalia and Tanta in Gharbeya province but these were quickly and violently attacked by local residents. The security forces rather sensibly decided not to get involved in this instead opting to defend Coptic Churches and government buildings. Although the totals are still being totted up it appears that 25 people have been killed in clashes outside of the capital Cairo.
Cairo is of course where the Brotherhood focused the main part of their efforts with several marches taking place across the city all set to converge on Ramsis Square. Being well prepared the security forces actually did a very good job of stopping and containing these various marches at different parts of the city in order to prevent them forming one big march in Ramsis Square. The main trouble flared when two of the marches were stopped on the May 15th and October 6th bridges. On both of those bridges Brotherhood supporters were armed with assault rifles that they used to shoot passers-by, shoot at the security forces in order to provoke them into firing into the crowd or simply firing into the crowd themselves. As a result battles raged at the Ramsis Square side of both bridges leaving a confirmed 35 dead so far. However if you listen to the Muslim Brotherhood's version of events entirely peaceful protesters were gathered in Ramsis Square when military helicopter gunships flew over head strafing the crowd with machine gun fire killing hundreds.
Egypt is currently around two and half hours into a overnight curfew. My advice is for people to respect that curfew because the security forces will be strictly enforcing it to make sure that the violence ends for the day without the Brotherhood being able to set up a new camp in Cairo. Unfortunately the Brotherhood have called for an entire week of protest. However based on the numbers they brought to the streets today I don't see them being able to sustain that.
19:30 on 16/8/13.
Operation Misery: Month 6, Week 2, Day 3.
Today (Friday) Chris Brown was scheduled to appear in Court in Los Angeles to answer charges that he had fled the scene of a road accident. As this represents a criminal offence it also meant he would have violated the terms of his probation. Unfortunately with events is Egypt leading to a special closed door United Nations Security Council (UNSC) on Thursday (15/8/13) Chris Brown's Court appearance was brought forward by a day. More alarmingly it also led to the leaving the scene of an accident charge to be dismissed significantly reducing the likelihood that Brown will be found to have violated his probation.
As Israel have been - I would say quite correctly - very vocal opponents to the US' Chris Brown/Rihanna operation this ruling was supposed to be interpreted as the US spiting Israel in order to throw its full support behind the Gulf Monarchies who support the Muslim Brotherhood and instability in Egypt. The first part of this message is quite clear - by dropping the case the Court has effectively set Brown free to do as he pleases. The second part was intended to give the impression that Rihanna's obedience to her handlers would be reinforced by tricking her into thinking her behaviour in someway affected the outcome of Brown's case. Finally it was an attempt to keep Chris Brown in the game in the hope that as the situations in Egypt and Syria develop people in diplomatic circles will look back on this decision as some sort of key moment. That last point was immediately and widely mocked within diplomatic circles with many intelligence agencies likening Brown's handlers decision to continue their protection of him to a teenager threatening suicide as part of an adolescent tantrum. After all if there is anyone who is still confused about the nature of the Chris Brown/Rihanna operation I will happily explain it to them in great detail.
As for Rihanna she is currently in New York City, US after travelling in from Barbados via Miami, US over the weekend. Officially this is to allow her to film a video for a soon to be released single by A$AP Rocky who supported her on the US leg of the Diamonds World Tour. This is of course intended to fuel speculation about whether Rihanna and A$AP Rocky are romantically involved and whether he will be supporting her on the next leg of her tour. In reality though the trip to New York was to allow Rihanna to give her long awaited deposition of evidence in the case against Berdon LLP. You were supposed to have been studying US news in minute detail to look for clues of how this went. The trip also allowed Rihanna to attend the launch party for Katy Perry's new album. As Katy Perry has been seen as the public face of opposition to Rihanna's relationship with Chris Brown the fact that she and Rihanna appear to be friends again is intended to raise speculation that Rihanna and Chris Brown have split up for good or that Katy Perry has dropped her opposition to the relationship.
Following her album launch party Katy Perry flew to Australia to promote that album. While she was appearing on the 2DayFM radio station the gaffe prone leader of the opposition Tony Abbott phoned in to tell Katy Perry that his daughters were big fans of hers and ask her when she'll be touring Australia next. This was a toe-curling effort by a politician to boost his popularity ahead of an election by showing that he's down with the kids. As a defeat for Tony Abbott would certainly make life easier for Katy Perry's friend Rihanna during the Australian leg of her tour Katy Perry responded by attacking Abbott over his party's position on same sex marriage. However if you look back at Katy Perry's biography which includes very religious parents and her debut single "I Kissed A Girl" which isn't as supportive of homosexuality as it seems on the surface Katy Perry taking a position on same sex marriage would appear to touch on many of the discussions about the issue that are going on in Australian society. Therefore her little exchange with Tony Abbott could easily be mistaken for a staged effort by the US to find out who the Australian election campaign is going and possibly try and help Abbott get elected to increase the risk to Rihanna.
As the relationship between Russia and the US/UK alliance has deteriorated since the start of the Syria conflict the Russians feel they are one of the main targets of the Chris Brown/Rihanna operation. So in response to Katy Perry's radio appearance Russian pole vaulter Yelena Isinbayeva who could bear a passing resemblance to Katy Perry used her victory at the World Athletics Championships to speak out in support of Russian laws banning the promotion of homosexuality including same sex marriage. This was intended to be seen as Russia struggling under the pressure on the Chris Brown/Rihanna operation. However anyone who saw their performance against Northern Ireland in a football world cup qualifier later in the day would have been left less then convinced.
So in summary I probably need to get around to writing my preview of the political aspects of the next leg of Rihanna's Diamonds World Tour. Not today though because in Egypt the Muslim Brotherhood have called for protest marches from every Mosque in the country as part of a "Day of Anger and Rage" in response to Wednesday's camp clearances. Even if this goes entirely peacefully as I hope I still think this is going to require a lot of my attention today.
12:25 on 16/8/13.
As Israel have been - I would say quite correctly - very vocal opponents to the US' Chris Brown/Rihanna operation this ruling was supposed to be interpreted as the US spiting Israel in order to throw its full support behind the Gulf Monarchies who support the Muslim Brotherhood and instability in Egypt. The first part of this message is quite clear - by dropping the case the Court has effectively set Brown free to do as he pleases. The second part was intended to give the impression that Rihanna's obedience to her handlers would be reinforced by tricking her into thinking her behaviour in someway affected the outcome of Brown's case. Finally it was an attempt to keep Chris Brown in the game in the hope that as the situations in Egypt and Syria develop people in diplomatic circles will look back on this decision as some sort of key moment. That last point was immediately and widely mocked within diplomatic circles with many intelligence agencies likening Brown's handlers decision to continue their protection of him to a teenager threatening suicide as part of an adolescent tantrum. After all if there is anyone who is still confused about the nature of the Chris Brown/Rihanna operation I will happily explain it to them in great detail.
As for Rihanna she is currently in New York City, US after travelling in from Barbados via Miami, US over the weekend. Officially this is to allow her to film a video for a soon to be released single by A$AP Rocky who supported her on the US leg of the Diamonds World Tour. This is of course intended to fuel speculation about whether Rihanna and A$AP Rocky are romantically involved and whether he will be supporting her on the next leg of her tour. In reality though the trip to New York was to allow Rihanna to give her long awaited deposition of evidence in the case against Berdon LLP. You were supposed to have been studying US news in minute detail to look for clues of how this went. The trip also allowed Rihanna to attend the launch party for Katy Perry's new album. As Katy Perry has been seen as the public face of opposition to Rihanna's relationship with Chris Brown the fact that she and Rihanna appear to be friends again is intended to raise speculation that Rihanna and Chris Brown have split up for good or that Katy Perry has dropped her opposition to the relationship.
Following her album launch party Katy Perry flew to Australia to promote that album. While she was appearing on the 2DayFM radio station the gaffe prone leader of the opposition Tony Abbott phoned in to tell Katy Perry that his daughters were big fans of hers and ask her when she'll be touring Australia next. This was a toe-curling effort by a politician to boost his popularity ahead of an election by showing that he's down with the kids. As a defeat for Tony Abbott would certainly make life easier for Katy Perry's friend Rihanna during the Australian leg of her tour Katy Perry responded by attacking Abbott over his party's position on same sex marriage. However if you look back at Katy Perry's biography which includes very religious parents and her debut single "I Kissed A Girl" which isn't as supportive of homosexuality as it seems on the surface Katy Perry taking a position on same sex marriage would appear to touch on many of the discussions about the issue that are going on in Australian society. Therefore her little exchange with Tony Abbott could easily be mistaken for a staged effort by the US to find out who the Australian election campaign is going and possibly try and help Abbott get elected to increase the risk to Rihanna.
As the relationship between Russia and the US/UK alliance has deteriorated since the start of the Syria conflict the Russians feel they are one of the main targets of the Chris Brown/Rihanna operation. So in response to Katy Perry's radio appearance Russian pole vaulter Yelena Isinbayeva who could bear a passing resemblance to Katy Perry used her victory at the World Athletics Championships to speak out in support of Russian laws banning the promotion of homosexuality including same sex marriage. This was intended to be seen as Russia struggling under the pressure on the Chris Brown/Rihanna operation. However anyone who saw their performance against Northern Ireland in a football world cup qualifier later in the day would have been left less then convinced.
So in summary I probably need to get around to writing my preview of the political aspects of the next leg of Rihanna's Diamonds World Tour. Not today though because in Egypt the Muslim Brotherhood have called for protest marches from every Mosque in the country as part of a "Day of Anger and Rage" in response to Wednesday's camp clearances. Even if this goes entirely peacefully as I hope I still think this is going to require a lot of my attention today.
12:25 on 16/8/13.
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