Basically my father went down to Wales for a flying social visit today. As a result I spent the day enjoying having the house to myself. I did though find some time to contact some solicitors. This wasn't particularly successful with me basically getting secretaries and voicemail. This is actually quite common when you're trying to get hold of people who work in large organisations. There is though a possibility that MI5 were redirecting my phonecalls in an effort to prevent me obtaining legal representation. That's because if the law is followed there is only one outcome from this situation and that outcome will be highly undesirable for certain people.
Someone in the Republic of Ireland clearly thought it was the latter and phoned in a bomb threat about a US Airways flight from Shannon to Philadelphia. That threat has since been described as "baseless" and "unsubstantiated." Although the aircraft was a Boeing 757 its flight number was 777 meaning that this was also Ireland voting that the rest of the Rihanna operation should be scrapped. The US immediately rejected that by announcing that on landing the aircraft had been isolated. This was intended to give the impression that Rihanna was being isolated from unspecified negative influence amongst her core tour party. The make up of Rihanna's core tour party is something the US have desperate to get the Chinese interested in ahead of Rihanna's concerts in the country.
23:20 on 7/8/13.
Edited at around 14:45 on 8/8/13 to add;
This afternoon I've been trying again to recruit a solicitor and my telephone calls were most certainly being interfered with. However using another phone line I was able to get through and provisionally now have representation. I'm not going to name the specific firm but they have extensive experience dealing with criminal law, mental health legislation such as the 1983 Mental Health Act, Court of Protection matters such as the Mental Capacity Act 2005, terrorism cases and immigration case involving crimes against humanity. As it represents the first opportunity for them to apply for legal aid funding my first meeting with them will be at the probable cause hearing on August 23rd (23/8/13). This is a bit annoying because if they had the funding to do preparation work the case should be dismissed there and then.
As for the legal aid issue I'm unemployed, eligible for sickness benefits, have no assets, the charge rests on a complex point of law, carries a risk of imprisonment and if all the medical issues are considered should qualify as a very expensive case. Therefore it would be highly unusual if legal aid was denied.
Wednesday, 7 August 2013
Tuesday, 6 August 2013
The UK's Contribution to Mali and Zimbabwe.
As I touched on in my previous post with the election results in Mali and Zimbabwe being released in Friday (2/8/13) we are now in a period in which certain elements within the developed world were hoping those two nations would be torn apart by violence and legal challenges in response to those controversial election results. As such the US has been making a great effort to make sure that Rihanna is front and centre of everybody's attention with lots of earnest discussion over whether Chris Brown's handlers will again intervene to force the couple to reunite. The US' neighbour Canada has contributed to the general level of confusion with an incident in which two young boys were killed by a python snake in French speaking New Brunswick. Personally I think this was an attempt by English speaking Canada to be seen participating in the UK's efforts against Mali and Zimbabwe while reminding the US that it is most probably time to let the Rihanna/Chris Brown operation come to its natural conclusion.
As I also mentioned in my previous post being far more heavily invested in Zimbabwe the UK has gone to an extra special effort to put pressure on all parties by spreading confusion and tension. So it goes without saying that Shrien Dewani will indeed to appealing against his extradition to South Africa to the UK's Supreme Court. The UK's efforts though have largely been built around a Channel 4 mini-series called "Southcliffe." If I was writing a professional review of this program I would say that it is incredibly well acted and deeply thought provoking. That's because it is a much more polite way of saying it's a bit boring really with the director choosing to largely disregard a plot in favour of giving us lots of long, lingering shots in which the viewer can ponder how the issues raised affect them in their own lives.
What little of a plot there is centres around a character called "Stephen" who lives in the fictional small market town of Southcliffe and one day decides to go on a shooting spree. The Stephen character served in the British Army and applied to join the elite SAS but failed selection. However he likes to tell people in his small town that he served heroically with the SAS leading to his friends and neighbours thinking he is a bit of a weirdo. Although it's not been officially diagnosed it's heavily hinted that Stephen cares for his elderly mother who has dementia. As such the Stephen character could equally be me or my father. The "Anna" character is pretty obviously a less ginger version of the Anna featured in the Bristol Abuse Case. Beyond that there's a social worker, a pub landlord with a fondness for the band Oasis, a serving soldier possibly suffering from Post-Traumatic Stress Disorder, a TV news reporter with a troubled past, lots of police officers and plenty of characters that people in the UK will be familiar with in their everyday lives. Well I'm familiar with at least. As the painfully pretentious series continues we will explore how societies failings caused Stephen to go on his murderous rampage. Basically back in 2006 the Communists at Channel 4 promised the UK Crown that they would take control of me and deliver something by 2012. It's 2013 and Channel 4 haven't delivered so it's time for them to examine their failings.
In the meantime though the UK Crown were hoping that I would be experiencing a long, hot summer under constant harassment from occupants 50 Beechwood Avenue and associates. They were hoping that the broadcast of Southcliffe would make the stress all too much and something dramatic would happen. Of course something dramatic has already happened but it was far less dramatic than the Crown was hoping. As a result G4S have tonight pulled out of their electronic tagging contract because well before a UK Court can impose punishment such as electronic tagging it first has to demonstrate that a criminal offence has been committed.
Showing remarkable resilience though following the unsuccessful broadcast of the second of four episodes of Southcliffe last night (5/8/13) the UK sprung back with a shooting incident at a farm in South Lanarkshire, Scotland. This looks like a domestic incident but we were all supposed to speculate whether the broadcast of Southcliffe played a role in the incident. After all the UK were using to hope the power of TV to trigger me into doing something dramatic. The fact that the farm in question also has a horse riding stables attached was particularly cunning because it brought in the incident in which a steward was trampled by two police horses brought into to control a pitch invasion following the League Cup 1st round match between Blackpool and Preston North End. The match was obviously arranged to provoke a minor disturbance in order to invoke discussion about about the recent July 12th rioting in Belfast, Northern Ireland. You see although in Northern Ireland they take things much more seriously this type of disorder is not uncommon on council housing estates across the UK mainland in August. The football match was an attempt to keep the disorder within controlled environment of a football stadium rather then a housing estate. The horse incident seems to be an added bonus. What appears to have happened is that the steward attempted to grab someone running onto the pitch as the horses advanced. Being kind of thick one of the police horses instinctively swerved to hit the person running on to the pitch knocking the steward under the hoofs of the second horse. The question of course is did the person running onto the pitch know that the horse would react in that way?
The horse trampling also fed beautifully into the announcement about dangerous dogs. 'Dangerous Dogs' is of course a long standing UK codeword for young, mainly black gang members. Therefore the announcement could have been a reference to the occupants of 50 Beechwood Avenue and associates. Also the Dangerous Dogs Act 1991 is a perfect example of a poorly written law. However it is quite common for the residents of council housing estates who sometimes engage in August disorder to own and keep dangerous dogs which sometimes leads to some of these dangerous dogs munching on the occasional child. Of course owners affinity or lack there of with living things such as horses is often a factor in these fatal dog attacks. Of course the horse trampling could also be viewed as an attempt to encourage footballs fans to take an interest in horse racing which in turn seems like a protest against payday loan companies such as Wonga.
Also in the UK we've had the tragedy of a schoolgirl killing herself after being bullied by Internet trolls on the site ask.fm. Apart from the Communists seemingly never ending desire for the Internet and the wider world being so heavily regulated that no-one can ever again point out to them that they're idiots this also fed into the news that UK Olympic gymnast Beth Tweddle has retired. You see with all her teeth I wouldn't be surprised to learn that Beth Tweddle has been the victim of Internet trolls at least once. Therefore an outsider might mistake this for an attempt to invoke a highly complex argument from the 2012 Olympics. Tom Daley immediately springs to mind.
Finally there's been some nonsense about the government introducing news laws to discourage NHS hospitals from killing their elderly patients. This could obviously be interpreted as some highly important announcement about my grandmother's case. Personally I think it was the NHS' obsession with fighting tobacco smoking that ruined it all for everyone.
Anyway got a headache yet?
20:25 on 6/8/13.
As I also mentioned in my previous post being far more heavily invested in Zimbabwe the UK has gone to an extra special effort to put pressure on all parties by spreading confusion and tension. So it goes without saying that Shrien Dewani will indeed to appealing against his extradition to South Africa to the UK's Supreme Court. The UK's efforts though have largely been built around a Channel 4 mini-series called "Southcliffe." If I was writing a professional review of this program I would say that it is incredibly well acted and deeply thought provoking. That's because it is a much more polite way of saying it's a bit boring really with the director choosing to largely disregard a plot in favour of giving us lots of long, lingering shots in which the viewer can ponder how the issues raised affect them in their own lives.
What little of a plot there is centres around a character called "Stephen" who lives in the fictional small market town of Southcliffe and one day decides to go on a shooting spree. The Stephen character served in the British Army and applied to join the elite SAS but failed selection. However he likes to tell people in his small town that he served heroically with the SAS leading to his friends and neighbours thinking he is a bit of a weirdo. Although it's not been officially diagnosed it's heavily hinted that Stephen cares for his elderly mother who has dementia. As such the Stephen character could equally be me or my father. The "Anna" character is pretty obviously a less ginger version of the Anna featured in the Bristol Abuse Case. Beyond that there's a social worker, a pub landlord with a fondness for the band Oasis, a serving soldier possibly suffering from Post-Traumatic Stress Disorder, a TV news reporter with a troubled past, lots of police officers and plenty of characters that people in the UK will be familiar with in their everyday lives. Well I'm familiar with at least. As the painfully pretentious series continues we will explore how societies failings caused Stephen to go on his murderous rampage. Basically back in 2006 the Communists at Channel 4 promised the UK Crown that they would take control of me and deliver something by 2012. It's 2013 and Channel 4 haven't delivered so it's time for them to examine their failings.
In the meantime though the UK Crown were hoping that I would be experiencing a long, hot summer under constant harassment from occupants 50 Beechwood Avenue and associates. They were hoping that the broadcast of Southcliffe would make the stress all too much and something dramatic would happen. Of course something dramatic has already happened but it was far less dramatic than the Crown was hoping. As a result G4S have tonight pulled out of their electronic tagging contract because well before a UK Court can impose punishment such as electronic tagging it first has to demonstrate that a criminal offence has been committed.
Showing remarkable resilience though following the unsuccessful broadcast of the second of four episodes of Southcliffe last night (5/8/13) the UK sprung back with a shooting incident at a farm in South Lanarkshire, Scotland. This looks like a domestic incident but we were all supposed to speculate whether the broadcast of Southcliffe played a role in the incident. After all the UK were using to hope the power of TV to trigger me into doing something dramatic. The fact that the farm in question also has a horse riding stables attached was particularly cunning because it brought in the incident in which a steward was trampled by two police horses brought into to control a pitch invasion following the League Cup 1st round match between Blackpool and Preston North End. The match was obviously arranged to provoke a minor disturbance in order to invoke discussion about about the recent July 12th rioting in Belfast, Northern Ireland. You see although in Northern Ireland they take things much more seriously this type of disorder is not uncommon on council housing estates across the UK mainland in August. The football match was an attempt to keep the disorder within controlled environment of a football stadium rather then a housing estate. The horse incident seems to be an added bonus. What appears to have happened is that the steward attempted to grab someone running onto the pitch as the horses advanced. Being kind of thick one of the police horses instinctively swerved to hit the person running on to the pitch knocking the steward under the hoofs of the second horse. The question of course is did the person running onto the pitch know that the horse would react in that way?
The horse trampling also fed beautifully into the announcement about dangerous dogs. 'Dangerous Dogs' is of course a long standing UK codeword for young, mainly black gang members. Therefore the announcement could have been a reference to the occupants of 50 Beechwood Avenue and associates. Also the Dangerous Dogs Act 1991 is a perfect example of a poorly written law. However it is quite common for the residents of council housing estates who sometimes engage in August disorder to own and keep dangerous dogs which sometimes leads to some of these dangerous dogs munching on the occasional child. Of course owners affinity or lack there of with living things such as horses is often a factor in these fatal dog attacks. Of course the horse trampling could also be viewed as an attempt to encourage footballs fans to take an interest in horse racing which in turn seems like a protest against payday loan companies such as Wonga.
Also in the UK we've had the tragedy of a schoolgirl killing herself after being bullied by Internet trolls on the site ask.fm. Apart from the Communists seemingly never ending desire for the Internet and the wider world being so heavily regulated that no-one can ever again point out to them that they're idiots this also fed into the news that UK Olympic gymnast Beth Tweddle has retired. You see with all her teeth I wouldn't be surprised to learn that Beth Tweddle has been the victim of Internet trolls at least once. Therefore an outsider might mistake this for an attempt to invoke a highly complex argument from the 2012 Olympics. Tom Daley immediately springs to mind.
Finally there's been some nonsense about the government introducing news laws to discourage NHS hospitals from killing their elderly patients. This could obviously be interpreted as some highly important announcement about my grandmother's case. Personally I think it was the NHS' obsession with fighting tobacco smoking that ruined it all for everyone.
Anyway got a headache yet?
20:25 on 6/8/13.
Operation Misery: Month 5, Week 5, Day 2.
That really feels like the wrong post title to use because at this point Rihanna is currently back in her native Barbados more or less on holiday.
The fact that Barbados is part of the UK Commonwealth Realm obviously raises speculation that the UK will be getting access to all the juicy gossip and they were certainly very keen to let the world know they knew the moment that Rihanna arrived. However the fact that Rihanna is in Barbados rather than in France actually gives the UK less access to Rihanna because it is one thing to be able hear the opinions of onlookers and gawkers but quite another to actually have someone in the room with her. This change has led to some apparent dispute between the US and the UK which has led to former President George W Bush having a UK Prince Phillip style heart stent fitted. After all following the 2005 G8 Summit and winning his second term in 2004 George W Bush did seem to have something of a change of heart particularly when it came to African issues.
Getting back to the point though there have certainly been a lot of onlookers and gawkers over the past couple of days because Rihanna has been attending Barbados' annual carnival. This is something that happens every year and something Rihanna attends almost every year making it part of her normal, everyday life. Therefore the most politically relevant thing I can think to say about it is that if you've seen the photographs and videos you would immediately understand why Rihanna has a much more relaxed attitude towards nudity then, well, most other people on the planet. Over the coming weeks I expect Rihanna will be doing lots of family stuff, sunbathing and generally enjoying not being on tour. The only fly in the ointment is that Rihanna will have to attend a deposition in her case against Berdon LLP. However it's already been established that Berdon's legal team are happy to travel to Barbados and Barbados is happy for a deposition in the case to take place there.
Of course in the original plan we would currently be in a high stress period with Mali and Zimbabwe tearing themselves apart in the wake of controversial and disputed elections. As a result the US has been making sure that Rihanna is front and centre of everybody's attention. So for example radio stations in the US have been heavily playing Rihanna's current single "Right Now" ensuring that it gets pushed to the top of the Billboard dance/club chart. This is Rihanna's 20th single to top that chart putting her at number 2 in that chart only some 22 singles behind Madonna. Added to that over the weekend the US have been putting out lots of stories that make it appear that it is having an earnest discussion about the future of the Rihanna/Chris Brown operation especially after my involvement. These include an explosive demolition of a disused power generation plant in Bakersfield, California in which at least one onlooker was seriously injured, the incident in which driver used his car to deliberately target pedestrians walking on the Venice Beach boardwalk in California, a snowboarder who died after becoming buried in an icy tunnel in Oregon and a parachute instructor who died after his parachute failed in Mississippi. As the intention is to cause confusion all of these stories could be interpreted a number of ways however they all give the general impression that the US is now viewing the Rihanna/Chris Brown operation as a failure. Ahead of Chris Brown's mid-August Court appearance this raises the possibility that his handlers will be lifting their protection and he might actually be prosecuted for at least one of his legion of crimes. This obviously raises the tension for Rihanna who although is no longer dating him probably still cares enough about him not to want to see him sent to prison. It obviously also massively raises the pressure on Chris Brown who has responded by making a big show on Twitter of how him and Rihanna are no longer a couple. While I believe this to be true at this point Brown is clearly making sure that everybody knows in the hope that will lessen the clamour for him to be prosecuted.
Obviously being far more invested in Zimbabwe then anybody else the UK has also been contributing to the general level of confusion in a big way. However having been years in the planning the UK's effort is highly complicated and highly confusing meaning that it deserves a post all of its own. Canada has also decided to join in with a story about two young boys who were killed by an escaped python while staying with friends. This can obviously be interpreted in a number of ways not least in terms of jokes about penis size and paedophilia. However I suspect this mainly Canada being seen to contribute to the UK's Zimbabwe effort while reminding it's US neighbour that it is probably time to let the Rihanna operation go.
One thing that was most certainly not in the script was the continuation of the Egyptian revolution so alongside all this planned Rihanna stuff the US is also desperately trying to find out what is going on in Egypt. As a result Senators John McCain and Lindsey Graham are in Egypt on a legitimate fact finding mission. Also under pressure from Turkey whose Prime Minister Erdogan has his own reasons to feel nervous about events in Egypt US President Obama has controversially invited the worldwide leadership of the Muslim Brotherhood to a prestigious meeting at the White House. In the meantime the US's big terror alert is now focusing very much on Yemen. The fact the threat level is now described as "Extremely High" is supposed to make Egypt worried that the Saudis are about to use the Yemen route to punish Egypt for overthrowing Morsi. The deployment of evacuation of US nationals via military transport is supposed to make the Saudis worried that the US could be withdrawing its help to control the unruly elements of Yemen's militants. The killing of two suspected Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) in drone strikes is supposed to reassure the Saudis that the US is only bluffing about withdrawing its help.
The cumulative effect of all this is to heap pressure on the Egyptians to allow the US to force its way in as the lead negotiator between the Muslim Brotherhood and the Egyptian government. Out of laziness more than anything I suspect that the US will try to force the Egyptian government to share power with the Brotherhood in a sort of government of national unity. This is what Turkey and Saudi Arabia want and the US are likely to give to them because the US needs at least one of the other to give them a seat in the Syria game. I think this is all bad news for Egypt because the military's original plan seems to me to be a very good plan and the way to proceed. That is to say the government of national unity that is already in place continues until the security situation is stabilised and Egypt makes some key economic reforms before making way for a democratically elected government in the early part of 2014.
17:00 on 6/8/13.
The fact that Barbados is part of the UK Commonwealth Realm obviously raises speculation that the UK will be getting access to all the juicy gossip and they were certainly very keen to let the world know they knew the moment that Rihanna arrived. However the fact that Rihanna is in Barbados rather than in France actually gives the UK less access to Rihanna because it is one thing to be able hear the opinions of onlookers and gawkers but quite another to actually have someone in the room with her. This change has led to some apparent dispute between the US and the UK which has led to former President George W Bush having a UK Prince Phillip style heart stent fitted. After all following the 2005 G8 Summit and winning his second term in 2004 George W Bush did seem to have something of a change of heart particularly when it came to African issues.
Getting back to the point though there have certainly been a lot of onlookers and gawkers over the past couple of days because Rihanna has been attending Barbados' annual carnival. This is something that happens every year and something Rihanna attends almost every year making it part of her normal, everyday life. Therefore the most politically relevant thing I can think to say about it is that if you've seen the photographs and videos you would immediately understand why Rihanna has a much more relaxed attitude towards nudity then, well, most other people on the planet. Over the coming weeks I expect Rihanna will be doing lots of family stuff, sunbathing and generally enjoying not being on tour. The only fly in the ointment is that Rihanna will have to attend a deposition in her case against Berdon LLP. However it's already been established that Berdon's legal team are happy to travel to Barbados and Barbados is happy for a deposition in the case to take place there.
Of course in the original plan we would currently be in a high stress period with Mali and Zimbabwe tearing themselves apart in the wake of controversial and disputed elections. As a result the US has been making sure that Rihanna is front and centre of everybody's attention. So for example radio stations in the US have been heavily playing Rihanna's current single "Right Now" ensuring that it gets pushed to the top of the Billboard dance/club chart. This is Rihanna's 20th single to top that chart putting her at number 2 in that chart only some 22 singles behind Madonna. Added to that over the weekend the US have been putting out lots of stories that make it appear that it is having an earnest discussion about the future of the Rihanna/Chris Brown operation especially after my involvement. These include an explosive demolition of a disused power generation plant in Bakersfield, California in which at least one onlooker was seriously injured, the incident in which driver used his car to deliberately target pedestrians walking on the Venice Beach boardwalk in California, a snowboarder who died after becoming buried in an icy tunnel in Oregon and a parachute instructor who died after his parachute failed in Mississippi. As the intention is to cause confusion all of these stories could be interpreted a number of ways however they all give the general impression that the US is now viewing the Rihanna/Chris Brown operation as a failure. Ahead of Chris Brown's mid-August Court appearance this raises the possibility that his handlers will be lifting their protection and he might actually be prosecuted for at least one of his legion of crimes. This obviously raises the tension for Rihanna who although is no longer dating him probably still cares enough about him not to want to see him sent to prison. It obviously also massively raises the pressure on Chris Brown who has responded by making a big show on Twitter of how him and Rihanna are no longer a couple. While I believe this to be true at this point Brown is clearly making sure that everybody knows in the hope that will lessen the clamour for him to be prosecuted.
Obviously being far more invested in Zimbabwe then anybody else the UK has also been contributing to the general level of confusion in a big way. However having been years in the planning the UK's effort is highly complicated and highly confusing meaning that it deserves a post all of its own. Canada has also decided to join in with a story about two young boys who were killed by an escaped python while staying with friends. This can obviously be interpreted in a number of ways not least in terms of jokes about penis size and paedophilia. However I suspect this mainly Canada being seen to contribute to the UK's Zimbabwe effort while reminding it's US neighbour that it is probably time to let the Rihanna operation go.
One thing that was most certainly not in the script was the continuation of the Egyptian revolution so alongside all this planned Rihanna stuff the US is also desperately trying to find out what is going on in Egypt. As a result Senators John McCain and Lindsey Graham are in Egypt on a legitimate fact finding mission. Also under pressure from Turkey whose Prime Minister Erdogan has his own reasons to feel nervous about events in Egypt US President Obama has controversially invited the worldwide leadership of the Muslim Brotherhood to a prestigious meeting at the White House. In the meantime the US's big terror alert is now focusing very much on Yemen. The fact the threat level is now described as "Extremely High" is supposed to make Egypt worried that the Saudis are about to use the Yemen route to punish Egypt for overthrowing Morsi. The deployment of evacuation of US nationals via military transport is supposed to make the Saudis worried that the US could be withdrawing its help to control the unruly elements of Yemen's militants. The killing of two suspected Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) in drone strikes is supposed to reassure the Saudis that the US is only bluffing about withdrawing its help.
The cumulative effect of all this is to heap pressure on the Egyptians to allow the US to force its way in as the lead negotiator between the Muslim Brotherhood and the Egyptian government. Out of laziness more than anything I suspect that the US will try to force the Egyptian government to share power with the Brotherhood in a sort of government of national unity. This is what Turkey and Saudi Arabia want and the US are likely to give to them because the US needs at least one of the other to give them a seat in the Syria game. I think this is all bad news for Egypt because the military's original plan seems to me to be a very good plan and the way to proceed. That is to say the government of national unity that is already in place continues until the security situation is stabilised and Egypt makes some key economic reforms before making way for a democratically elected government in the early part of 2014.
17:00 on 6/8/13.
Monday, 5 August 2013
There I Was on the Cusp of a Productive Day.
After going to bed relatively sober and waking up relatively early I went into town to get some bits and pieces to make this TiVo/DVR box work properly. After an afternoon spent splicing cables, fitting connectors and bandaging fingers I plugged it all in and the signal's too weak meaning I have to go out again to get a booster. On the plus side though I did manage to get my hair cut.
I've also started the process of legal firm to represent me in this criminal damage matter. This is actually slightly controversial in the UK because under proposed changes to the Legal Aid this process of selecting a law firm would be done away with. Instead you would be appointed a lawyer to act on your behalf regardless of whether they're competent to handle the case or not. Obviously certain firms might refuse the work and there might be conflict of interest issues so this might turn out to be a lengthy process. However I am very tempted to use the firm that represented David Norris over the Stephen Lawrence murder just to f*ck with people.
19:00 on 5/8/13.
I've also started the process of legal firm to represent me in this criminal damage matter. This is actually slightly controversial in the UK because under proposed changes to the Legal Aid this process of selecting a law firm would be done away with. Instead you would be appointed a lawyer to act on your behalf regardless of whether they're competent to handle the case or not. Obviously certain firms might refuse the work and there might be conflict of interest issues so this might turn out to be a lengthy process. However I am very tempted to use the firm that represented David Norris over the Stephen Lawrence murder just to f*ck with people.
19:00 on 5/8/13.
Sunday, 4 August 2013
Terrorism Sunday.
In the past week the European portion of Rihanna's Diamonds World Tour has come to what the CIA handlers would consider an unsuccessful conclusion. In turn that makes it much less likely that the final portion of the tour will achieve its political objectives. Added to that events in Egypt are having knock on effects across the region threatening to again change the political direction of the entire Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region.
As a result in the US the Obama administration is once again coming under pressure over the attack on the US Embassy in Benghazi, Libya on September 11th 2012 (11/9/12). This is of course the issue used in the US to have coded discussions about all aspects of Obama's flawed foreign policy. In response the US State Department has taken the political decision to use a not particularly credible threat of a terrorist attack to close down US Embassies and issue advice against travel across the globe today (4/8/13) This particularly affects the MENA region where Sunday is the first day of the normal working week. The Obama administrations intention was to demonstrate that in return for doing everything it can to protect US diplomats overseas the US loses its ability to operate and therefore influence across the globe. Unfortunately the image of Embassies across the world being shuttered also demonstrates the negative effect of the Obama administrations foreign policy.
Following the announcement from the US the UK ordered the temporary closure of its Embassy in Sanaa, Yemen. The intention here being to put Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) into the spotlight. Based in Yemen AQAP are widely considered to be an off-shoot of the Saudi government and Egypt in particular are worried that if the Saudis wish to destabilise Egypt they will do so by exporting AQAP militants from Yemen. Therefore the UK has shifted the focus onto Yemen in an effort to find what the US knows about Saudi support for AQAP and how it feels about it. Following the UK announcement Germany and France have also ordered the temporary closure of their Embassies in Yemen in an effort to join in the conversation between the US and the UK. Finally the International Police (INTERPOL) have issued a world wide alert following prison breaks in Libya and Pakistan. This is INTERPOL trying to find out what is going on with the US terror alert.
As for Egypt itself it has enjoyed a relatively peaceful couple of days. The Muslim Brotherhood continued to hold marches in Cairo on Friday (2/8/13) with a particular focus on media city and the security forces fired tear gas in response to stone throwing. However we are talking in terms of injuries rather than fatalities. Also there have been two continuous days without attacks taking place in the Sinai. However the worry is that this is simply the calm before the storm because the military have issued a 48 hour ultimatum for the Brotherhood to abandon their protest camps in Cairo. No-one is exactly sure when that 48 hour period began so no-one is sure exactly when it will end let alone what the military will do when the time comes. However there is a fear that the military will simply charge in all guns blazing. That is because the protesters at the Brotherhood camps are armed and the camps are being used as bases to launch attacks against the military and local residents. On the battle field when faced with an encampment of armed opponents it is perfectly acceptable to simply use overwhelming force to destroy it. However in the civilian environment the security forces need to be more tolerant and more flexible. Therefore I hope before acting the military give very serious consideration to my suggestion of providing an alternative, less disruptive protest site to the Brotherhood because in a democracy their right to protest does need to be respected.
12:30 on 4/8/13.
As a result in the US the Obama administration is once again coming under pressure over the attack on the US Embassy in Benghazi, Libya on September 11th 2012 (11/9/12). This is of course the issue used in the US to have coded discussions about all aspects of Obama's flawed foreign policy. In response the US State Department has taken the political decision to use a not particularly credible threat of a terrorist attack to close down US Embassies and issue advice against travel across the globe today (4/8/13) This particularly affects the MENA region where Sunday is the first day of the normal working week. The Obama administrations intention was to demonstrate that in return for doing everything it can to protect US diplomats overseas the US loses its ability to operate and therefore influence across the globe. Unfortunately the image of Embassies across the world being shuttered also demonstrates the negative effect of the Obama administrations foreign policy.
Following the announcement from the US the UK ordered the temporary closure of its Embassy in Sanaa, Yemen. The intention here being to put Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) into the spotlight. Based in Yemen AQAP are widely considered to be an off-shoot of the Saudi government and Egypt in particular are worried that if the Saudis wish to destabilise Egypt they will do so by exporting AQAP militants from Yemen. Therefore the UK has shifted the focus onto Yemen in an effort to find what the US knows about Saudi support for AQAP and how it feels about it. Following the UK announcement Germany and France have also ordered the temporary closure of their Embassies in Yemen in an effort to join in the conversation between the US and the UK. Finally the International Police (INTERPOL) have issued a world wide alert following prison breaks in Libya and Pakistan. This is INTERPOL trying to find out what is going on with the US terror alert.
As for Egypt itself it has enjoyed a relatively peaceful couple of days. The Muslim Brotherhood continued to hold marches in Cairo on Friday (2/8/13) with a particular focus on media city and the security forces fired tear gas in response to stone throwing. However we are talking in terms of injuries rather than fatalities. Also there have been two continuous days without attacks taking place in the Sinai. However the worry is that this is simply the calm before the storm because the military have issued a 48 hour ultimatum for the Brotherhood to abandon their protest camps in Cairo. No-one is exactly sure when that 48 hour period began so no-one is sure exactly when it will end let alone what the military will do when the time comes. However there is a fear that the military will simply charge in all guns blazing. That is because the protesters at the Brotherhood camps are armed and the camps are being used as bases to launch attacks against the military and local residents. On the battle field when faced with an encampment of armed opponents it is perfectly acceptable to simply use overwhelming force to destroy it. However in the civilian environment the security forces need to be more tolerant and more flexible. Therefore I hope before acting the military give very serious consideration to my suggestion of providing an alternative, less disruptive protest site to the Brotherhood because in a democracy their right to protest does need to be respected.
12:30 on 4/8/13.
Friday, 2 August 2013
Election Results in Mali and Zimbabwe.
Rather annoyingly both Mali and Zimbabwe have today released their election results on the same day. However I don't think it is any great secret that the Mali election was specifically timed to coincide with the Zimbabwe election in order to put maximum pressure on African nations particularly South Africa.
In Zimbabwe it is only the results of the Parliamentary vote that have been announced. The results of the Presidential vote will come later. However it is clear that Mugabe's ZANU-PF party have won a landslide victory winning 142 of the 210 Parliamentary seats giving them more than a 2/3rds majority. Obviously we are still waiting for the Zimbabwe Electoral Commission (ZEC) and the various observer missions to publish their reports but such is the scale of ZANU-PF's victory even if all of the small scale of alleged voting irregularities were found to be true they wouldn't be enough to affect the outcome of the election. The fact that ZANU-PF now have a more than 2/3rds Parliamentary majority means that they now have the power to amend the national constitution which will be highly controversial. Therefore while they won't change the overall outcome these allegations of voting irregularity will need to be looked at carefully. However at this point everybody is tensely waiting to see whether the MDC-T will follow through on it's threat to bring its supporters out onto the streets to challenge the election result. Hopefully they won't.
The situation in Mali is slightly more complicated because their Presidential vote has resulted in no candidate gaining the 50% of the vote needed to win outright. This means that that two leading candidates Ibrahim Boubacar Keita who received 39.2% of the vote and Soumaila Cisse who received 19.4% of the vote will now go head to head in a run-off vote scheduled for August 11th (11/8/13). Apart from the fact they both have strong democratic credentials and a feud dating back more than a decade I don't really know enough about either candidate to comment further at this point. However the election run-off seems the sensible way to proceed because Cisse in particular has made some very loud and aggressive accusations of vote rigging and election irregularities. The run-off gives the opportunity for these allegations to be resolved by a new vote.
16:50 on 2/8/13
Edited at around 21:20 on 3/8/13 to add;
Today the result of the Zimbabwean Presidential election have been released. They show Robert Mugabe winning a substantial victory with 61% of the vote over Morgan Tsvangirai's 34% of the vote. As a result Mugabe has passed the 50% threshold winning the Presidency outright with no need for a run-off vote.
Having made his position quite clear before voting even began it goes without saying that Tsvangirai has accused Mugabe of election fraud and pledged to contest the result in Court. However as with the Parliamentary vote the scale of Mugabe's victory means that any irregularities that have been alleged so far would not be sufficient to change the outcome of the vote. Therefore we can only hope that Tsvangirai and the MDC-T respect the Court's decision and accept their defeat graciously rather than bringing their supporters to the streets in protest.
In Zimbabwe it is only the results of the Parliamentary vote that have been announced. The results of the Presidential vote will come later. However it is clear that Mugabe's ZANU-PF party have won a landslide victory winning 142 of the 210 Parliamentary seats giving them more than a 2/3rds majority. Obviously we are still waiting for the Zimbabwe Electoral Commission (ZEC) and the various observer missions to publish their reports but such is the scale of ZANU-PF's victory even if all of the small scale of alleged voting irregularities were found to be true they wouldn't be enough to affect the outcome of the election. The fact that ZANU-PF now have a more than 2/3rds Parliamentary majority means that they now have the power to amend the national constitution which will be highly controversial. Therefore while they won't change the overall outcome these allegations of voting irregularity will need to be looked at carefully. However at this point everybody is tensely waiting to see whether the MDC-T will follow through on it's threat to bring its supporters out onto the streets to challenge the election result. Hopefully they won't.
The situation in Mali is slightly more complicated because their Presidential vote has resulted in no candidate gaining the 50% of the vote needed to win outright. This means that that two leading candidates Ibrahim Boubacar Keita who received 39.2% of the vote and Soumaila Cisse who received 19.4% of the vote will now go head to head in a run-off vote scheduled for August 11th (11/8/13). Apart from the fact they both have strong democratic credentials and a feud dating back more than a decade I don't really know enough about either candidate to comment further at this point. However the election run-off seems the sensible way to proceed because Cisse in particular has made some very loud and aggressive accusations of vote rigging and election irregularities. The run-off gives the opportunity for these allegations to be resolved by a new vote.
16:50 on 2/8/13
Edited at around 21:20 on 3/8/13 to add;
Today the result of the Zimbabwean Presidential election have been released. They show Robert Mugabe winning a substantial victory with 61% of the vote over Morgan Tsvangirai's 34% of the vote. As a result Mugabe has passed the 50% threshold winning the Presidency outright with no need for a run-off vote.
Having made his position quite clear before voting even began it goes without saying that Tsvangirai has accused Mugabe of election fraud and pledged to contest the result in Court. However as with the Parliamentary vote the scale of Mugabe's victory means that any irregularities that have been alleged so far would not be sufficient to change the outcome of the vote. Therefore we can only hope that Tsvangirai and the MDC-T respect the Court's decision and accept their defeat graciously rather than bringing their supporters to the streets in protest.
Thursday, 1 August 2013
Zimbabwe's Election: The Game's Begun.
Although let's be honest it never really stopped.
On Wednesday (31/7/13) Zimbabwe held it's general election for Parliament and the Presidency. Under election rules brought in following the violence that occured during the 2008 general election the results of the vote will not be known for five days. This means that the ballots cast have only just started to be counted so there is absolutely no way of knowing who has won the election or even how many questionable ballots have been cast.
This tiny detail hasn't stopped Morgan Tsvangirai the leader of the Movement for Democratic Change - Tsvangirai (MDC-T) attempting to whip his supporters up into a frenzy. In a press conference today Tsvangirai declared the election to be "A huge farce with its credibility marred by administrative violations which affect the legitimacy of its outcome." He went on to describe the election as a "Sham election that does not reflect the will of the people" before declaring that the MDC-T considers the election result to be "Null and void." These comments of course put Tsvangirai in direct violation of election rules that prevent participants commenting on the election in the time between the polls opening and the election results being declared. This rule was introduced following the 2008 election specifically to prevent participants inciting violence.
Tsvangirai's views on the election are most certainly not supported by the observer mission from the Southern African Development Community (SADC). Although they will continue to monitor the counting process the SADC observers declared the physical voting part of the election process to be "Peaceful, credible and efficient" while urging all parties to accept the result of the vote before praising the Zimbabwe Electoral Comission (ZEC) for the efficent way they conducted the election. Tsvangirai's views are also not shared by the observer mission from the African Union (AU) who described the voting process as "Peaceful, orderly, free and fair."
Even the infamous Zimbabwe Election Support Network (ZESN) have been struggling to find evidence to support Tsvangirai's position. In their preliminary report released today they found that election rules such as ballot boxes being empty before being sealed, voters having their names checked against the electoral roll before being allowed to vote and having their fingers marked with indelible ink after voting were followed at 99-100% of polling stations.
If you are unfamiliar with ZESN they are an umbrella organisation made up of various community action and women's rights groups who are organised and funded by the UK and white farmers who Mugabe expelled from the country. In 2008 they played a central role in inciting the violence that followed the election by making a series of utterly false claims. For example they initially claimed that Tsvangirai had won over 50% of the vote meaning there would be no need for a run-off vote. This was later proved to be totally untrue and ZESN withdrew their comment.
As it is very much their mission to overthrow Mugabe by any means ZESN seem to have completely disregarded their own report in their public comments on the election saying that it cannot be passed off as being free and fair. Their main evidence in support of these is that are 49% of polling stations 25 people or more were refused the right to vote simply because they weren't on the list of registered voters or that some of the polling stations in this dirt poor country were not wheelchair accessible.
Obviously I will try to avoid commenting on this election further until the results have been announced and there is something to comment on. However from Tsvangirai's political play I think that the election has probably been free, fair and credible and that Mugabe has most likely won.
19:50 on 1/8/13.
On Wednesday (31/7/13) Zimbabwe held it's general election for Parliament and the Presidency. Under election rules brought in following the violence that occured during the 2008 general election the results of the vote will not be known for five days. This means that the ballots cast have only just started to be counted so there is absolutely no way of knowing who has won the election or even how many questionable ballots have been cast.
This tiny detail hasn't stopped Morgan Tsvangirai the leader of the Movement for Democratic Change - Tsvangirai (MDC-T) attempting to whip his supporters up into a frenzy. In a press conference today Tsvangirai declared the election to be "A huge farce with its credibility marred by administrative violations which affect the legitimacy of its outcome." He went on to describe the election as a "Sham election that does not reflect the will of the people" before declaring that the MDC-T considers the election result to be "Null and void." These comments of course put Tsvangirai in direct violation of election rules that prevent participants commenting on the election in the time between the polls opening and the election results being declared. This rule was introduced following the 2008 election specifically to prevent participants inciting violence.
Tsvangirai's views on the election are most certainly not supported by the observer mission from the Southern African Development Community (SADC). Although they will continue to monitor the counting process the SADC observers declared the physical voting part of the election process to be "Peaceful, credible and efficient" while urging all parties to accept the result of the vote before praising the Zimbabwe Electoral Comission (ZEC) for the efficent way they conducted the election. Tsvangirai's views are also not shared by the observer mission from the African Union (AU) who described the voting process as "Peaceful, orderly, free and fair."
Even the infamous Zimbabwe Election Support Network (ZESN) have been struggling to find evidence to support Tsvangirai's position. In their preliminary report released today they found that election rules such as ballot boxes being empty before being sealed, voters having their names checked against the electoral roll before being allowed to vote and having their fingers marked with indelible ink after voting were followed at 99-100% of polling stations.
If you are unfamiliar with ZESN they are an umbrella organisation made up of various community action and women's rights groups who are organised and funded by the UK and white farmers who Mugabe expelled from the country. In 2008 they played a central role in inciting the violence that followed the election by making a series of utterly false claims. For example they initially claimed that Tsvangirai had won over 50% of the vote meaning there would be no need for a run-off vote. This was later proved to be totally untrue and ZESN withdrew their comment.
As it is very much their mission to overthrow Mugabe by any means ZESN seem to have completely disregarded their own report in their public comments on the election saying that it cannot be passed off as being free and fair. Their main evidence in support of these is that are 49% of polling stations 25 people or more were refused the right to vote simply because they weren't on the list of registered voters or that some of the polling stations in this dirt poor country were not wheelchair accessible.
Obviously I will try to avoid commenting on this election further until the results have been announced and there is something to comment on. However from Tsvangirai's political play I think that the election has probably been free, fair and credible and that Mugabe has most likely won.
19:50 on 1/8/13.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
