Tuesday, 16 July 2013

Marched to Death For Mali.

I apologise for the delay. It's just rather appropriately going to the gym in the hottest part of the day with a hangover rather wiped me out yesterday.

Anyway on Sunday (14/7/13) it emerged that on Saturday (15/7/13) two British Territorial Army reservists had died of heat exhaustion during a speed march on the Breacon Beacons in Wales as part of the selection process for the reserve regiment of the Special Air Service (SAS) special forces. Along with the almost exclusively loyalist rioting in Belfast, the big shop fire in Manchester and the attack on the home of Francis Cory-Wright in Hertfordshire this was meant to contribute to general confused concern about my personal safety and security while Rihanna was in the UK. The SAS story would have caused particular confusion because the UK have been telling the local networks in Croydon that it's their job to train me up. However a lot of people who've been looking at the scorecard think it's the other way around. Also a few years back the UK was trying to convince everyone that my maternal cousin who is in the army had the same genetic heart defect as my paternal grandmother. The main bit of evidence for this is that he reported feeling faint after one of the these speed marches - something that is clearly not that unreasonable.

Beyond the connections to me the SAS story also touches on some wider arguments. For example the UK recently announced that it intends to shrink the size of the regular armed forces and replace the shortfall with reservists. This is obviously not popular within the regular military who have long viewed reservists as inferior. Two reservists failing selection by dying does obviously raise questions about whether they're up to the required standard.

Mainly though the incident seems to feed into a long running argument between the UK and France over the operation in Mali. The French are actually being very professional about the operation simply wanting to get in, get the job done and get out again. As a result even with a United Nations (UN) peacekeeping force beginning to deploy France will be keeping a force of around 1000 in Mali made up mainly for elite/special forces to carry out raids against Islamist terrorist bases. The UK on the other hand seems more interested in dragging out the conflict for as long as possible in order to use it to put pressure on the predominately African nations that make up the UN force. With operating temperatures in Mali being almost double what they were on the Breacon Beacons on Saturday the incident seems to be the UK arguing that it won't been sending special forces to Mali because African troops are better acclimatised to the environment. However it must be said I don't think anyone has been pushing for UK troops to be deployed because they're viewed as more of a hindrance then a help.

Added to this you have the death on Sunday of Susan Taylor who died in French waters after trying to swim the English Channel in a effort to raise money for Hospice Care and Diabetes treatment. That obviously put immediate pressure on the French authorities who had to take Ms Taylor into hospital in an attempt at life saving treatment. The inquiry into her death opens up a bridge of dialogue between the UK and France which will be quite difficult for the French because Hospice care is the medical treatment you give to the terminally ill in order to allow them to die peacefully. It was this type of care the UK controversially gave to my paternal grandmother over a number of years even though she wasn't suffering from any form of terminal illness. The UK have of course also argued for years that I suffer from Diabetes despite there not being any medical evidence to support that. The incident is also highly reminiscent of the death of Claire Squires at the 2012 London Marathon and all the pre-Olympic controversy that involved.

Finally on Sunday the body of Phillpe Verdon was discovered in Mali. Verdon was a French geologist who kidnapped by Islamic terrorists in Mali in 2011. In March 2013 Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) announced they'd executed him in response to France's intervention in Mali. The discovery of the body that had apparently been left out in an effort to send a message obviously puts immediate pressure on the French authorities to identify the body and establish a cause of death. Coinciding with the UK's co-ordinated efforts on Mali it also raises questions about the strength of the links between the UK and AQIM. Finally it seemed intent on showing that AQIM have fight left in them in an effort to get the French to withdraw it's forces from Mali in order to avoid further causalities.

11:10 on 16/7/13

Sunday, 14 July 2013

Egypt's Continuing Revolution: Month 13, Week 3, Day 5.

As you may have noticed I've not been giving daily updates on Egypt. In part that is because there's a lot of other things going on at the moment as the UK tries to hold it's post-G8 de-brief sessions which events in Egypt have significantly disrupted. Mainly though it's because with Ramadan taking place not much has actually happened in Egypt over the past few days. The Muslim Brotherhood continue to hold their protest in Cairo's Nasr city but it has failed to attract the numbers that the Brotherhood were hoping for. More importantly the protest has remained confined to Nasr city so there have been no major outbreaks of violence beyond the general collapse of law and order in the country.

On Friday (12/7/13) the United Nations (UN) expressed concern about the continued detention of Mohamed Morsi and others and this concern was echoed by the German Foreign Ministry. Rather than being calls for Morsi's release let alone his reinstatement as President these statements simply reflect a general unease at the practice of arbitrary detention. While I think everybody agrees that Morsi's continued detention is justified under the circumstances the UN wouldn't be doing it's job if it didn't at least question the practice. Germany's call seemed specifically intended to antagonise the US over its initial reticence in supporting the Egyptian revolution. This seems to have had the desired affect because after apologetically confirming that it agrees with the German position in response to a reporters question ("We do agree" was the exact quote from the ruffled State Department spokeswoman) the US confirmed on Saturday (13/7/13) that it will be going ahead with the delivery of four F-16 fighter jets to Egypt. In a further sign of support the US today announced that it is sending the Deputy Secretary of State Bill Burns to Egypt for a two day visit beginning on Monday. With the Secretary of State John Kerry being unavailable due to his wife's illness Burns is the most high ranking diplomat the US can send.

On Saturday (13/7/13) Egypt's public prosecutor moved to dispel international concerns about arbitrary detention by announcing that it is investigating Mohamed Morsi and other members of the Muslim Brotherhood including Mohammed Badie and Khairat El-Shater on allegations of inciting violence, espionage and financial corruption relating to the misuse of government funds. As is standard practice in Egypt the investigator will conduct a preliminary investigation before deciding whether to file formal charges. On the allegation of inciting violence it is highly likely that charges will be filed because Morsi's final address to the nation alone should be enough to convict him. The espionage allegation seems equally well supported because Egypt defines espionage as "Communicating with others to the detriment Egyptian security" those others don't need to be foreigners so even Morsi and Badie conspiring with each other to incite violence would be enough to support the charge. As always the allegations of financial corruption are more complicated but seem to relate to the economic disaster that was Morsi's one year in power. The investigation is set to determine whether this the result of massive incompetence or a more deliberate attempt by the Brotherhood to use the wealth of the nation to enrich themselves. The freezing of the assets of 14 members of the Muslim Brotherhood and the Freedom & Justice Party is simply to stop potential evidence in that investigation being destroyed.

On the political level Hazem el-Beblawi has been sworn in as interim Prime Minister and Mohammed ElBaradei has been sworn in as his deputy. There are also rumour and counter-rumour swirling about who will be given posts in the government of national unity. Although there are too many for me to comment on individually especially as some of them are untrue to in order keep up with them I am now following the Egypt Independent on Twitter. They were chosen because it was the first English language Egyptian news outlet that Google spat out. I may diversify later but in the meantime try not to panic.

One government appointment that has been confirmed is that of Nabil Fahmy to the post of interim Foreign Minister. Holding a Bsc in Maths and Physics Fahmy is clearly highly intelligent. Also as a career diplomat who served as Egypt's Ambassador at large since 2008 he is highly experienced in the world of both international and domestic politics. His time as an Ambassador to the UN, along with stints in Japan and the US will serve him and the nation especially well because as with ElBaradei the fact that people already know him means they will find it easier to trust him.

My only concern is that he is a member of the AlDostour party which is headed by ElBaradei. As ElBaradei is now the interim deputy Prime Minister this creates a risk that the AlDostour party will be over represented in the government of national unity. However AlDoustour is clearly the party that has attracted the most intelligent and professional of Egypt's secularists and Egypt does really need to streamline the number of secular parties ahead of the upcoming elections. Forcing them to form new alliances and mergers as part of the government of national unity may well be the way to do just that.

17:20 on 14/7/13.

George Zimmerman Acquitted.

On February 26th 2012 George Zimmerman shot and killed Trayvon Martin in Sanford, Florida, US. Following a series of unofficial, behind the scenes meetings the police decided not to prosecute Zimmerman. This was wholly unjust because it meant that the polices actions were outside of any oversight of any Court or the law. When the police start behaving like this they stop being impartial servants of the law and instead become just another gang of thugs subject to the human failings such as racism, sexism and well just laziness that affect us all. It also meant that Trayvon Martin family were left without an explanation of how he came to die.

Therefore quite rightly citizens of the US responded with protests calling for Zimmerman to be put on trial. Following a review by the Florida state attorney a Grand Jury was convened and it decided to indict Zimmerman on a charge of second degree murder as defined by Section 782.4(2) of the Florida penal code. This led to a trial in which the facts of the case were laid out in open Court. The main thing this trial uncovered was that Trayvon Martin was not the innocent child that his supporters had portrayed him as.  Instead he was a young man who was already heavily involved in petty crime including offences of violence and unlawful firearm possession. The trial also uncovered that it was Martin who had attacked Zimmerman first and at the time Zimmerman fired the fatal shot Martin had him pinned to the ground, was striking him with his fists and forearms and was smashing his head into the concrete pavement.

With Zimmerman pinned down and therefore unable to escape Florida's controversial "Stand Your Ground" rules did not apply. However the fact that Martin was violently attacking Zimmerman at the time he was shot and killed meant that Zimmerman was able to argue that he needed to kill Martin in order to protect himself from serious harm or even death. This is the universal principle of self-defence that exists in Florida state law, US federal law and even international law.

After careful consideration the Jury accepted Zimmerman's argument and ruled that Martin was lawfully killed meaning that Zimmerman could not have committed the offence of second degree murder. They also rejected the charge of manslaughter as defined by Section 782.07(1) of the Florida penal code. However putting this offence to the jury in the first place struck me as the Court overstepping its bounds in order to make sure Zimmerman was convicted of something.

As I've said before I personally would have liked to see the jury consider the offence of aggravated assault as defined by Section 784.021(b) of the Florida penal code. Primarily this is because I think that it is the only offence Zimmerman could have been found guilty of over the incident. It would also have allowed for a lot of discussion about mandatory minimum sentences that disproportionally affect young, black men in the US and restrictions preventing convicted felons possessing firearms. However as I've said I think it was the protests that were calling for Zimmerman's head on a plate that discouraged the prosecutor from taking this unconventional route doing themselves a disservice in the process.

10:40 on 14/7/13.

Friday, 12 July 2013

The Wheels of Injustice Turn So Slowly.

As I alluded to on Twitter yesterday (11/7/13) I emailed the police's Bensham Manor Safer Neighbourhood Team (SNT) to point out that it had been a week since I'd last heard from them. They replied explaining that they had attempted to speak to the occupants of 50 Beechwood Avenue but had been unable to do so indicating that had visited and found a minor unsupervised at the address because his parents were at work. Citing their shift patterns they did promise to attempt again either that day or today (12/7/13).

Therefore I replied with a quick email pointing out that while I appreciate the individual may have trouble making contact due to their shift patterns the Metropolitan Police does operate 24 hours a day so perhaps another officer can make the visit. I suggested the anti-burglary squad. I also suggested that with the school holidays coming up they may wish to remind the adults at their address of their obligation to sort of child care along with the usual warning that delaying an investigation can be viewed as an unlawful attempt to obstruct an investigation.

Although I've not heard back from the SNT I gather they did speak to other neighbours as potential witnesses. Some of course supported my version of events while certain others didn't further destroying their credibility as witnesses. Apparently the adults at 50 Beechwood intend to blame their criminal actions on children of their friends and neighbours. Under schedule 2 (14) of the Housing Act 1988 this is something they may wish to seek independent legal advice on. Either way evidence is now mounting up and there is only so long the SNT can delay action for. In the meantime all of my neighbours are now aware of who their point of contact should be regarding any other problematic address. They should also probably mention any problems to me so I can conduct background checks. That's because there is now a very strong probability of closure orders being imposed on any Notting Hill Housing Trust (NHHT) or associated property in Beechwood Avenue. Linden Avenue, Richmond Road, Langdale Road and Nutfield Road.

Needless to say the Officer In Charge (OIC) of my case known by the codename Sarastro failed to fulfil his obligation to contact me either yesterday or today. I honestly think he doesn't know what to say. I will have to chase him up over the coming days though because he is still depriving me of some property of mine I would like returned.

As usual on the international level the UK has been displaying the optimism of a crack addict by bringing up the scandal of private security companies G4S and Serco charging the taxpayer for electronically monitoring convicted offenders who were not being monitored and some of whom were in fact dead. This type of electronic monitoring is commonly known as "ankle tagging." This element of the story was intended to see if anyone would believe that a spent 2003 caution I have for common law criminal damage by way of 'graffiti tagging' could be used against me. As even the UK thought this didn't stand a chance the fraud element was intended to send the message that any and all endorsements from the UK state the NHHT may think they have are in fact totally invalid. The talk of the government attempting to reclaim money from the companies was intended to promote discussion about how much of NHHT's assets will be left after they've fully compensated me. As the figure of GBP300m has been floated I'm guessing not much.

Elsewhere Russia finally convicted the long deceased Sergei Magnitsky of fraud. Apart from opening a new chapter in a long running dispute with the US this was supposed to show the UK how ridiculous the idea of putting me on trial sounded to everybody else. Even the US agreed with them by indefinitely postponing the trial of General Sinclair. Something to do with him not having enough peers to make up a jury apparently.

China chimed in by announcing the doctors and senior managers working for the British biotech/drug giant GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) have confessed to fraud and bribing doctors. This is China reminding the UK that the offence of crime against humanity by way of unlawful medical experiment will be prosecuted either domestically or internationally. The only question is how long the list of accomplices will be. The UK responded to this today by announcing that there will be no Judge led Public Inquiry into the Alexander Litvinenko case. This was intended to be an announcement that there will be no public inquiry in my case because that would reveal lots of details about how the UK Security Services operate. As supporters of the NHHT have been pushing for a Public Inquiry as a way to delay criminal prosecution I couldn't agree more with the decision not to hold a Public Inquiry. What there will be though is a succession of offenders standing up in the Central Criminal Court (Old Bailey) and entering a guilty plea to all charges before entering the Nuremberg defence of "only following orders" in mitigation. They will then receive the standard prison terms of whole life sentences for senior officials such as Judge, board members and senior police officers down to 10 year sentences for foot soldiers. If any of them have a problem with this I have no problem with them not living long enough to stand trial.

Anyway with Rihanna returning to the UK over the weekend the UK is trying to hold it's post-G8 Summit de-brief. This has obviously created a lot of noise that I may attempt to deal with more fully later. However the main objective was to bring up the issue of Northern Irish security by holding the funeral of soldier Lee Rigby who was murdered in Woolwich, London today - July 12th. Sometimes known as "The Glorious Twelfth" July 12th is anniversary of the Protestant Dutch King William of Orange's victory at the Battle of the Boyne leading to a 323 year occupation of Northern Ireland. In previous years this anniversary has got somewhat heated mainly due to the Protestant Orange Order's insistence on marching through Catholic areas in celebration. Therefore the Rigby funeral was intended to further inflame tensions although I thought it was a lovely service. The subsequent nail bomb attack on a Mosque in Tipton was intended to promote excited speculation about what was going on in a tense Belfast. Belfast was also intended to be confused with my local area on the UK mainland.

I bring this up now because following the Tipton bombing local police - seemingly using their own initiative - have labelled this Section 1.2 Criminal Damage offence an act of "Terrorism." This is reminder to Croydon police that while they may have been going around telling people that I'm a terrorism suspect at the behest of the NHHT (a private, profit making company) no-one will be supporting them in that claim. Due to the situations in Mali, Nigeria, Somalia and Libya this is a timely opportunity to bring this up because we do seem rather keen on helping Islamic terrorism flourish in these resource rich nations.

19:40 on 12/7/13.

Edited at around 16:05 on 13/7/13 to add;

With my Blackberry Torch finally registering on the network I've just received an email from the SNT. It expresses concern at what the police officer terms "issues" between myself and the occupants of 50 Beechwood including their allegation of criminal damage for which the officer incorrectly refers to me as a suspect. The officer goes on to suggest a list of dates we could meet up in person on in order to avoid continuing to discuss the matter by email.

So I emailed a reply stating that I couldn't agree more that the endless stream of emails and inaction could not continue indefinitely. However I went on to point out that with at least one of the reported crimes being supported by an independent witness and legally obtained photographic evidence I was confused as to what there was left to discuss before appropriate action is taken. I went on to point out that when contrasted with the police's fully bodied and legally peculiar efforts to investigate a completely baseless (there is no evidence a crime has been committed) allegation of criminal damage made by the occupants against me it begins to appear that the police are endorsing or even participating in the harassment campaign by attempting to shield the occupants from prosecution.

Finally I pointed out that I've got a busy week ahead but might be able to attend a meeting on Thursday (18/7/13) subject to confirmation closer to the time. I also suggested that the SNT attempt to arrange for a representative of Croydon Council to be present because due to the history of the address and previous unsuccessful attempts to negotiate with the property owner a closure order seems the only appropriate course of action.

Thursday, 11 July 2013

The George Zimmernan Trial.

In the United States George Zimmerman is currently on trial for the second degree murder of Trayvon Martin. Due to the high profile and racially charged nature of the case the jury have been sequestered. Essentially this means that they have been placed in a hotel cut off from the outside world and in particular media coverage of the case and trial. As this is costing the State a lot of money and the jurors really want to be able get on with their lives the Court has been sitting almost around the clock with breaks only really to allow people to sleep and eat. As a result the case has proceeded very quickly with closing arguments being made today and the jury possibly being sent out to consider its verdict at early as tomorrow (12/7/13). A verdict could then be reached in anywhere from a matter of minutes to a matter weeks.

With the jury sequestered it is unlikely that they will be able to read this blog or any other coverage of the case. However the standard disclaimer that I have not sat through the trial and have not studied all the evidence in detail applies. Therefore based on the evidence that has been presented if the jury disagree with anything I say they should feel free to disregard my opinion.

That said the chances of Zimmerman being convicted of the second degree murder charge seem very slim. The offence of second degree murder as defined by Section 782.4(2) of the Florida penal code is the unlawful killing of a person either by deliberate act or through an act with reckless disregard for human life. The key difference between first and second degree murder is that second degree murder occurs without premeditation or pre-planning. Therefore this seems the appropriate charge to lay against Zimmerman because while there is no dispute that he has killed a person through a deliberate or reckless act there is absolutely no suggestion that Zimmerman left his house that evening with a plan to kill Martin or anybody else.

The issue though is with the term "unlawful" because even without the infamous "Stand your ground" rule being invoked (it hasn't been) Florida, US Federal and international law all allow for a person to lawfully kill another person if it is necessary to protect them or others from death or serious injury. As it is not in dispute that at the time of the fatal shots being fired Martin had Zimmerman pinned to the ground and was striking him with his fists while smashing his head into the concrete pavement this seems a clear example of Zimmerman acting lawfully in self-defence. However the law most certainly does not allow you to force somebody into a corner and them kill them in 'self-defence' as they fight to escape.

Therefore the jury must also consider whether Zimmerman's actions prior to the shooting left Martin with no option other than to fight in order to escape from Zimmerman. This would mean that Martin rather than Zimmerman was acting lawfully in self-defence. By the same token though while it's never a good idea to turn your back on an armed man if at any point Martin had a reasonable chance of escaping from Zimmerman the jury have no option other than to acquit Zimmerman on the second degree murder charge.

In one of the ways that the US legal systems differs slightly from the UK legal system if the jury are unable to convict Zimmerman of second degree murder they will then consider other offences of which he may be guilty. The first of these which the trial Judge Debra Nelson has already given the jury permission to consider is manslaughter. Defined by Section 782.07(1) of the Florida penal code manslaughter is the unlawful killing of a person through a deliberate act that was not intended to kill. To my mind this seems a waste of the jury's time because I don't think there is anybody who reasonably believes that deliberately firing a 9mm pistol into someones chest at point blank range doesn't carry a statistically significant risk that it will kill. Therefore if the jury is unable to convict Zimmerman of second degree murder it is equally unable to convict him of manslaughter.

Another offence that the jury could consider in Zimmerman's case although Judge Nelson has yet to give them permission to do so is that of aggravated assault defined by Section 784.021(b) of the Florida penal code. This does not require physical contact and is considered any behaviour that causes the victim to fear imminent harm. The presence of a firearm is the aggravating factor. This seems an appropriate offence to convict Zimmerman of because if an armed man in a car was following me around in the dark against the express instruction of the police I would certainly be fearful that he intended to do me imminent harm.

The advantage of convicting Zimmerman of aggravated assault is that it is a third degree felony meaning that unlike second degree murder or manslaughter it doesn't carry a minimum prison sentence. This is important because while Zimmerman's actions strike me as unpleasant and incredibly stupid they do not strike me as the actions of a hardened criminal or the actions of a committed racist. Therefore I think sentencing him to a long prison term would be unjust as his behaviour could be effectively punished by a mixed sentence made up of a very short prison term along with community punishment such as probation and unpaid work.


16:30 on 11/7/13.

Edited at around 15:00 on 12/7/13 to add;

I'm slightly concerned that the prosecution have yet to ask for the aggravated assault charge to be put to the jury. It is obviously not the defences' job to ask for more charges to be filed against their client. This is a problem because I think aggravated assault is the offence that Zimmerman has actually committed.

It is possible that the prosecutor has declined to do this due to the high profile and racially charged nature of the case. Therefore he doesn't want to appear weak by introducing the lesser charge because unless you're familiar with the legal detail it sounds like a poor explanation for an incident in which someone has been killed. The problem is that if justice is to be served I honestly can't see Zimmerman being convicted of either second degree murder or manslaughter so by not introducing the lesser charge the prosecutor is actually increasing the chances that Zimmerman will face no punishment at all. This is actually more likely to create a backlash especially as by asking the jury to consider Zimmerman's actions prior to the final confrontation as aggravated asssault the prosecutor would be chipping away at the defence of self-defence increasing the chances of a second degree murder conviction.

Therefore it is much more likely that the prosecutor or someone much higher up in the US Establishment is deliberately keeping the aggravated assault charge off the table in order to provoke a public backlash that would then be exploited to do away with the legal principle of Double Jeopardy which is a long standing check on the power of the state over the individual. After all it would be double jeopardy that would prevent an acquitted Zimmerman being re-tried for the aggravated assault offence.

Either way it kind of makes you wish there was a way for the sequestered jury to be told they can ask the judge if they can consider the aggravated assault charge.




Wednesday, 10 July 2013

Egypt's Continuing Revolution: Month 13, Week 3, Day 1.

Fortunately on the first day of Ramadan there have been no reports of any major violence in Egypt meaning that I can move straight to the political developments.

The big news of the day is that the state prosecutor has issued an arrest warrant for the Muslim Brotherhood's Supreme Leader Mohammed Badie and 9 other Brotherhood leaders on charges of inciting the violence that took place outside Cairo's Republican Guard HQ on Monday (8/7/13). Rather predictably the Brotherhood have decried this move as an attempt to destroy the Brotherhood as part of the 'military coup.' This is of course nonsense. Badie was initially arrested last Wednesday (3/7/13) as part of Morsi's removal. He was then freed on bail. His first act was to give an inflammatory address to the Muslim Brotherhood demonstration in Nasr city that provoked a day of violence across Egypt on Friday (5/7/13). Although he did not appear in person he was one of the key organisers behind the Brotherhood demonstration that led to Monday's confrontation outside the Republican Guard HQ. Therefore it is only right that Badie is re-detained because he has already demonstrated what he will do having been given the chance by being freed on bail. After all even in reasonably democratic nations such as the UK is the police suspect that you are likely to cause a major breach of the peace they are able to hold you indefinately until that threat has passed.

Also in relation to Monday's confrontation at the Republican Guard HQ prosecutors have remanded 200 of those arrested in custody for a minimum of 15 days on a variety of charges including weapons possession. 450 of those arrested have been freed on bail.

Again rather predictably the Muslim Brotherhood have rejected Hazem el-Bebawi's offer of seats in the government of national unity in return for the Brotherhood's support for his nomination of interim Prime Minister. To my mind this is just further evidence that the Brotherhood clearly have no-intention of returning Egypt to civilian democratic rule and instead simply want to return themselves to power. This of course raises the question of whether el-Bebawi can be appointed interim Prime Minister without the support of the Brotherhood. I think that he can because the Brotherhood's plan is clearly to delay the return to democracy for as long as possible in order to increase their support by claiming the delay they're causing as evidence of plot by the military to hang on to power.

In other slightly worrying signs of a further delay in the return to civilian, democratic rule both the liberal, secular National Salvation Front (NSF) party/coalition and the revolutionary Tamarod movement have rejected President Mansour's timetable for fresh elections. Both object on the grounds that they were not consulted about the process but in a sign of co-operation both intend to put forward their own suggestions for negotiation with the President. As I've said before I think the timetable declaration was a hastily drawn up and panicked response to events on Monday. Therefore I think the timetable should be scrapped and the focus should instead be on the formation of a government of national unity that will then go on to draw up it's own timetable for elections that reflects the wishes of all the sections of Egyptian society that choose to participate in that government of national unity.

22:55 on 10/7/13.

Tuesday, 9 July 2013

Egypt's Continuing Revolution: Month 13, Week 2, Day 7 (+1)

Today Egypt has mainly been coping with the funerals of those killed in the confrontation outside Cairo's Republican Guard HQ.

In slightly worrying news the Muslim Brotherhood have overnight rejected the timetable for fresh elections presented by interim President Mansour on Monday (8/7/13) as an illegitimate declaration of the illegitimate President of the "Putchists." Old Soviet words aside I think this really sums up the Brotherhood's attitude towards democracy - They're only in favour of it as long as they're winning.

In slightly better news for the nation both Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) have made pledges of financial support. The UAE have pledged a total USD3bn made up a USD1bn grant to the central bank followed by a possible USD2bn interest free loan to the central bank both of which will allow Egypt to support its own currency - the Egyptian Pound. Saudi Arabia has been more generous pledging a total of USD5bn million made of USD1bn in cash dollars which allows Egypt to trade on the international market. They have also offered USD2billion to the central bank and USD2billion is "energy products" which essentially means gasoline.

Although both offers come with strings attached they will be a relief to Egypt's interim military rulers. That is because of despite Article 121 of his own constitution Mohamed Morsi managed to run up around USD20bn of debt in his one year in office. This has left Egypt with approximately 3 months (October 2013) of foreign currency (US Dollars) reserves. Although running out of foreign currency will not in any way affect Egypt's ability to pay salaries it will prevent it importing foreign goods such as gasoline raising the prospect of Zimbabwe style run-away inflation.

The main political development of the day is that President Mansour has dropped the idea of appointing the Social Democrat Party (SDP) leader Ziad Bahaa el-Din as interim Prime Minister with Mohammed ElBaradei acting as his deputy. Instead he today announced Hazem el-Beblawi as the interim Prime Minister with Mohammed ElBaradei acting as his deputy. Again I feel that el-Beblawi is a strong candidate for interim Prime Minister because his background in law certainly gives him an understanding of the ethical and technical issues required to build a democratic society. His PHD in economics certainly qualifies him to tackle Egypt's pressing economic problems. Therefore if this was a US Presidential election I would say el-Beblawi and ElBaradei most certainly make up a winning ticket.

One of el-Beblawi's first acts as nominee was to offer seats in the government of national unity to the Muslim Brotherhood in a clear effort to garner their support for his nomination. So far the Brotherhood have yet to respond but I am opposed to this sort of offer because to my mind it goes against the principle of an inclusive government of national unity and looks set to plunge Egypt into further trouble.

In the meantime the Salafist al-Nour Party have announced that they support el-Beblawi's nomination but remain unconvinced by ElBaradei's nomination. As al-Nour have already withdrawn from the government of national unity I'm a little confused as to why their opinion has been sort at all.

A possible explanation may be a mortar attack on a police (CSF) base in the Sinai this evening. Although Sinai is most certainly bandit country where anything can happen I feel this was a Salafist attack intended to curry favour amongst Egypt's population by reminding them of all the help the Islamists have given to the Palestinians. While I cannot speak for the people of Gaza I think this is a complete lie because through things like Operation Pillars of Cloud since Morsi took over I've only seen things get worse and worse in a now nearly bankrupt Palestine.

23:45 on 9/7/13.