Today marks the first Friday since the downfall of Mohamed Morsi. Friday is of course the holy day in Islam and marks the start of the weekend in Egypt. Therefore it has traditionally been the big day of protest and today has been expected to be bigger than most.
Supporters of the revolution have been gathering in their millions in Cairo's Tahrir Square. In part this has been to celebrate their success and in part to maintain the pressure for a swift return to democratic, civilian rule. Unfortunately many of them are also gathering because they feel safer there in the large crowd then they do in their homes amid marauding bands of Morsi supporters looking for revenge. Supporters of Morsi and the Muslim Brotherhood have gathered in their thousands in the Nasr city area of Cairo calling for the immediate reinstatement of Morsi and the flawed constitution they tricked the nation into supporting by convincing them that a "No" vote in the referendum would be a vote in favour of Chris Brown. These conflicting protests are being repeated on a smaller scale across the nation starting with Egypt's second city Alexandria.
The day's security challenges though started with a series of attacks against army/police posts in the Sinai Peninsula. One Egyptian soldier was killed and at least two others injured when rocket propelled grenades were fired at checkpoints guarding El-Arish airport close to the border with Gaza. Later a police intelligence headquarters was attacked close to the Rafah crossing. Egyptian helicopter gunships returned fire and Egypt has closed the Rafah crossing as a result.
Ever since the 1972 war with Israel the Egyptian military proper has been prevented from operating fully within the Sinai Peninsula. As a result the area has largely become the domain of Bedouin tribesmen who periodically fight each other over land and smuggling routes. Therefore it is possible that these attacks were simply smugglers attempting to distract the security forces in order to make sure their latest shipment got through. However it is much more likely that these were co-ordinated attacks by Islamist militants intended to provoke the Egyptian military. The idea being that the military would then take out its frustrations on the Muslim Brotherhood demonstration in Nasr city allowing the Brotherhood to portray themselves as the persecuted victims of a military coup.
Fortunately the Egyptian military were having none of it and not only did they not move in to break up the Nasr city protest they actually pulled back their troops and armoured vehicles allowing the Muslim Brotherhood to march through Cairo. Unfortunately the Brotherhood decided to march straight to the Presidential Palace and are currently attempting to storm the Republican Guard barracks. This has provided the Muslim Brotherhood with the confrontation they desperately crave with the elite Republican Guard doing what they do best - frighting back.
As far as I can tell these soldiers are acting with maximum restraint first politely asking the Brotherhood to leave before firing tear gas when they refused. There have also been some reports of shotguns being used and live ammunition being fired. However I should point out that the way that the Egyptian military fire tear gas grenades is from a device fitted to the muzzle of the standard AK-47 rifle. Therefore the sound of rifle fire and the presence of spent cartridges does not necessarily mean that the army are using live ammunition against the Brotherhood.
I will be keeping an eye on how things progress throughout the evening. However if the Brotherhood does not disperse of it's own accord the military will have to consider using baton charges backed by armoured vehicles to break the crowd into smaller sections and then force the sections back to Nasr city where they can be safely contained.
14:55 on 5/7/13.
Edited at around 18:40 on 5/7/13 to add: Initially I wasn't going to sully my blog with this but since then I have decided that it is relevant.
Literally moments after posting the above the Officer In Charge (OIC) of my case known by the codeword "Sarastro" telephoned my father. My father immediately transferred the call over to me and after his usual round on unwarranted demands Sarastro confirmed that he had in fact been in possession of my contact number this whole time. He went on to confirm that the telephone number I'd been leaving messages for him on was indeed valid.
After becoming quite obstructive Sarastro was then informed, in person of the case reference numbers that not only demonstrate that I have committed no criminal offence but also that my accusers are actively engaged in very serious criminal activity. These were the case references that Sarastro was desperate to avoid having put to him at interview last Friday (28/6/12) - they are explained more fully in my "I Dunno I Can't Even Get Arrested These Days." from that date. After continuing to be both hostile and obstructive Sarastro was informed that he has to check those case references and I will be calling to confirm his progress on Monday (8/7/13). If he does not have the correct answer for me by that point I will have to very seriously consider having him arrested for attempting to pervert the course of justice by way of obstruction.
Personally I think that Sarastro read this blog post and then decided he could try to improve his chances of promotion by disrupting my involvement in the situation in Egypt by provoking another stressful round of argument between my father and I. Either that or he's planning to seek asylum in Saudi Arabia.
None of that though explains the mistake I made above. That was caused by a confused and developing situation, the language barrier and UK news channels really considering the situation in Egypt to be too hot to handle.
The Muslim Brotherhood did not in fact march from Nasr city to the Presidential Palace and attack the Republican Guard barracks there. Instead the marched directly to the Republican Guard's own headquarters where Morsi is said to be held. To my mind this is even more provocative because if they were marching to the Presidential Palace they could argue they were simply trying to protest somewhere they were more likely to be seen and heard. However by marching directly on the Republican Guard HQ the Brotherhood's actions seemed more like an attempt to free Morsi by force. This is something that is simply unacceptable to any well-trained, professional security force.
The elite Republican Guards on duty shouted clear warnings for the Brotherhood to stop. The Brotherhood ignored those warnings and continued to advance on the troops positions. The soldiers then did what they are trained to do and opened fire with live ammunition killing I believe three confirmed. This period of live fire went on for around five minutes before it was stopped by officers on the ground and the guardsmen then proceeded to use only teargas fired from their AK-47's using blank ammunition.
This is exactly the type of confrontation the Brotherhood intended to provoke in the hope it would trigger off a wave of similar violence across the nation. There is some evidence they've achieved this with reports of violence coming in from Alexandria. However in Cairo interim President Mansour announced that both houses of the Egyptian Parliament have been dissolved. This prompted the Brotherhood to march on the state-TV building where they are staging a sit-in protest while the army attempt to keep them away from Tahrir Square.
In the meantime there are initial reports of two further police officers being shot and killed in El-Arish in the Sinai Peninsula. If confirmed this does really raise the question of;
"What type of weapon do they have to use and how many people do they have to kill before the Muslim Brotherhood's actions become considered an attempt at a military coup?"
Edited at around 22:25 on 5/7/13 in an effort to go for the longest post ever:
The only coverage I getting at the moment of the situation in Egypt is from the capital Cairo and frankly there's enough of a story going on there. As a result I am not really aware of what is going on across the country. However the last update I got from the Egyptian health ministry puts the death toll at 10 with 318 wounded nationally. I don't have further information about the circumstances of those deaths and at this point I'd prefer to see the health ministry concentrating of keeping people alive rather than giving me hourly updates.
I do know as fact that 3 of those deaths occurred at the Republican Guard HQ as mentioned above. The state-TV channel is also reporting that at least 2 people were killed outside their HQ as part of the Muslim Brotherhood protest. As always exact details are hard to come by amid the chaos but it appears to be a repeat of the incident at the Republican Guard HQ. That is to say the Muslim Brotherhood heard that interim President Mansour was within the building so attempted to storm the building to either kidnap or kill the President. Having a sworn duty to prevent this from happening the soldiers on the ground issued warnings and when those warnings were ignored opened fire with less-lethal shotguns. The Brotherhood are of course outraged but this but frankly I'm confused as to what they thought would happen if they tried attacking trained and armed soldiers? Fortunately having been watching Al-Jazeera English I get the distinct impression that the Muslim Brotherhood have been ordered to return to the their Nasr city barracks overnight.
As I was writing my above update there was a pitched battle taking place on the October 6th bridge between Morsi supporters, supporters of the revolution and people who were just out for a ruck. Possibly because one of their reporters was on the bridge CNN started to panic massively and spent a good hour demanding to know why the army/police weren't trying to intervene. The Muslim Brotherhood of course were busily telling everybody that the army weren't getting involved because they had put non-uniformed agent provocateurs in to commit acts of violence in order to justify a crack down on the Muslim Brotherhood. Personally I don't believe that story at all but after intense pressure from CNN the police did eventually move in to clear the bridge driving both parties back to either Tahrir Square or Nasr city. Later a CNN team had their camera confiscated by an army officer who was clearly not impressed with their intervention.
The initial lack of army/police on the October 6th bridge is something I will try and look at in more detail tomorrow. However it did remind me of an incident in which all of the European Union's (EU) anti-Islam groups such as the English Defence League (EDL) travelled to the Netherlands for a big protest/riot. Obviously all of the EU's anti-racist groups such as Unite Against Fascism (UAF) also travelled to the Netherlands to stage a counter-protest/riot. The Dutch police simply marched both groups to a local sports field, set-up a medical tent and let them get on with it. This has since been cited across the EU as the model to follow in dealing with this type of EDL/UAF protest/riot. It seems a particularly good model for the Egyptian military to follow during this interim period at least. After all the incidents at the Republican Guard HQ and the state TV HQ show what happens when soldiers and protesters meet. I think it also underlines how much the Egyptian military really don't want to get involved in the running of the country and instead what to hand over to a democratic government as quickly as possible.
However from what I've seen so far this does present a particular problem for the protesters in Tahrir Square because they seem the most likely to be attacked. My advice to both camps though would be to establish a perimeter and devise a way to passively defend that perimeter. The people within that perimeter should then look out for each. For Tahrir Square especially that means anyone engaging in sexual assaults or other negative behaviour is immediately escorted outside of the perimeter and left to take their chances on the outside.
Friday, 5 July 2013
Thursday, 4 July 2013
Egypt's Continuing Revolution: Month 13, Week 2, Day 2.
In the 20 something hours since Mohamed Morsi was officially deposed the Egyptian military's main priority has been keeping the peace.
This has mainly focused on shutting down the Muslim Brotherhood owned Egypt25 TV station along with the Salifist owned Al-Hafiz and Al Nas TV stations. Rather than being an attempt to censor Islamist voices and exclude them from Egypt's political process this was simply done to stop them inciting violence. For example Morsi himself said in an address to the nation on Tuesday (2/7/13) that "[his Presidency] was the only guarantee against violence" which was a not particularly subtle call on his supporters - many of who have pledged to defend Morsi with their lives - to take up arms. Qatari owned Al-Jazeera's Egyptian TV station Mabasher Misr was given the benefit of the doubt despite it focusing all it's coverage on the pro-Morsi demonstration in Nasr city. It then broadcast a taped statement from Morsi on which he proclaimed himself to still be the President and urged his supporters to resist what he descibed as a full military coup. Mabasher Misr was then raided by the military and taken off air. However I'm sure that Mabasher Misr along with Egypt25, Al-Hafiz and Al-Nas will be allowed to start broadcasting again just as soon as the military are confident that there won't be any serious violence and those TV stations won't attempt to incite it.
The military's other main effort to keep the peace has been to arrest 300 of the Muslim Brotherhood's top leadership. Obviously with that high number of arrests I cannot comment on each individual case. For example I understand that some of them escaped from prison during the aftermath of the fall of Mubarak. The Brotherhood's supreme leader Mohammed Badie and his first deputy Khairat El-Shater have both been arrested on a specific allegation that they incited the killing of anti-Morsi protesters outside the Muslim Brotherhood's headquarters on Sunday (30/6/13). Obviously if there is a case to answer they will have to stand trial and sent to prison if convicted. However the majority of the arrests seem to simply be an attempt to take the Brotherhood's leadership out of the game during the transition period to stop them inciting and organising further violence. Provided they are treated humanely I have absolutely no problem with them being detained. The military might even consider commandeering a hotel to hold them in more pleasant conditions then a prison. Obviously how long these emergency measures continue depends on the situation on the ground rather than some arbitrary timeline but I wouldn't consider lifting it for at least 7-10 days.
The military's actions have rather been justified by the events overnight. Although there has not been a orgy of violence and retaliation there have been deaths and injuries. The worst of these incidents occurred in the northern city of Marsa Matrouh where 14 people were killed - including 2 members of the security forces - in clashes between pro and anti-Morsi supporters. 3 people were killed and 50 injured in clashes in Alexandria and 3 people were killed in Minya. Dozens were also wounded in Fayoum as the offices of Morsi's Freedom & Justice Party were looted in what seems to be an uncalled for revenge attack. There have also been reports nation wide of armed Islamists forcing Christians from their homes. This all needs to stop for the simple reason that the longer it goes on for the longer the Islamist TV stations stay off the air, the longer the Muslim Brotherhood leadership will be detained and longer it will be until a government of national unity can be formed and fresh elections can be held.
I have not yet been able to track down a written copy of the military's full roadmap but I'm sure you'll appreciate that they are very busy at the moment. Their commitment to a swift return to democratic, civilian rule was demonstrated though by the swearing in today of Adly Mansour as interim President. Although not much is known about Mansour he has served as the deputy head of the Constitutional Court since 1992 so seems to be a career technocrat. He was also appointed as head of the Court by Morsi only on Monday (1/7/13). Therefore he seems to have been chosen for the role of interim President to make sure that Morsi's supporters will have a strong voice in the government of national unity which I expect for balance will now be made up largely of opponents of Morsi.
International reaction to Morsi's ouster has also started to emerge and is largely muted although sadly some of it seems distinctly negative. The UK's Foreign Secretary William Hague called on all parties to restore the democratic process and stated that the UK does not support military intervention as a way to resolve disputes. This perfectly mirrored the Muslim Brotherhood's own line and was such a clear attempt to incite violence that Hague went on to make it clear he wasn't attempting to incite violence by calling on all sides to avoid violence. US President Obama went even further decrying the removal of Morsi and effectively calling on the Egyptian military to restore him to power. He also specifically warned the military not to arrest members of the Muslim Brotherhood's leadership in what seems to be a clear attempt to allow the Brotherhood to incite and organise violent retaliations. Thankfully the Egyptian military simply ignored him Obama also said that he has ordered officials to review what financial assistance the US gives to Egypt in response to what he descibed as a military coup. This seems like something of an empty threat because Representative Ed Royce who chairs the House Foreign Affairs Comittee which ultimately makes that decision has already made it quite clear that he is more than happy to see Morsi go.
The US and the UK's negative reaction to Morsi's downfall is driven largely by a desire not to offend the Gulf Monarchies especially in oil rich Saudi Arabia and natural gas rich Qatar. Along with the conflict in Syria the Sunni Gulf Monarch's support for Morsi has been an attempt to create a Sunni dominated middle-east. The fact that Morsi was absolutely terrible at his job also helped to reduce support for the Muslim Brotherhood in the Monarch's own nations. With the Saudi and Qatari Irregular Army (SQIA) losing ground daily in Syria and the G8 nations showing no desire to assist them further the ouster of Morsi represents a major set-back in the Gulf Monarchies plans. Therefore Saudi King Abduallah's message of congratulations to Adly Mansour was absolutely dripping with sarcasm and seemed to be an attempt to reassert Saudi control in Egypt. This is something Egypt's new government will be have to be mindful of because in his one year in office Morsi managed to get Egypt into some USD20billion worth of debt to Saudi Arabia and Qatar.
The African Union has also indicated that it may suspend Egypt in response to what it describes as a military coup. This is simply echoing the US line and is plainly nonsense. Prior to Morsi's ouster some 22 million Egyptians - roughly a quarter of the population - signed a petition calling for him to go. Roughly the same number - some estimates say more - took to the streets for four days calling for him to go. Under the same circumstances in a mature democracy the President would have resigned or at least called a General Election without having to be pushed. So the military may have intervened in Egypt but they were clearly doing so at the behest of the people. That is not a military coup.
16:35 on 4/7/13.
This has mainly focused on shutting down the Muslim Brotherhood owned Egypt25 TV station along with the Salifist owned Al-Hafiz and Al Nas TV stations. Rather than being an attempt to censor Islamist voices and exclude them from Egypt's political process this was simply done to stop them inciting violence. For example Morsi himself said in an address to the nation on Tuesday (2/7/13) that "[his Presidency] was the only guarantee against violence" which was a not particularly subtle call on his supporters - many of who have pledged to defend Morsi with their lives - to take up arms. Qatari owned Al-Jazeera's Egyptian TV station Mabasher Misr was given the benefit of the doubt despite it focusing all it's coverage on the pro-Morsi demonstration in Nasr city. It then broadcast a taped statement from Morsi on which he proclaimed himself to still be the President and urged his supporters to resist what he descibed as a full military coup. Mabasher Misr was then raided by the military and taken off air. However I'm sure that Mabasher Misr along with Egypt25, Al-Hafiz and Al-Nas will be allowed to start broadcasting again just as soon as the military are confident that there won't be any serious violence and those TV stations won't attempt to incite it.
The military's other main effort to keep the peace has been to arrest 300 of the Muslim Brotherhood's top leadership. Obviously with that high number of arrests I cannot comment on each individual case. For example I understand that some of them escaped from prison during the aftermath of the fall of Mubarak. The Brotherhood's supreme leader Mohammed Badie and his first deputy Khairat El-Shater have both been arrested on a specific allegation that they incited the killing of anti-Morsi protesters outside the Muslim Brotherhood's headquarters on Sunday (30/6/13). Obviously if there is a case to answer they will have to stand trial and sent to prison if convicted. However the majority of the arrests seem to simply be an attempt to take the Brotherhood's leadership out of the game during the transition period to stop them inciting and organising further violence. Provided they are treated humanely I have absolutely no problem with them being detained. The military might even consider commandeering a hotel to hold them in more pleasant conditions then a prison. Obviously how long these emergency measures continue depends on the situation on the ground rather than some arbitrary timeline but I wouldn't consider lifting it for at least 7-10 days.
The military's actions have rather been justified by the events overnight. Although there has not been a orgy of violence and retaliation there have been deaths and injuries. The worst of these incidents occurred in the northern city of Marsa Matrouh where 14 people were killed - including 2 members of the security forces - in clashes between pro and anti-Morsi supporters. 3 people were killed and 50 injured in clashes in Alexandria and 3 people were killed in Minya. Dozens were also wounded in Fayoum as the offices of Morsi's Freedom & Justice Party were looted in what seems to be an uncalled for revenge attack. There have also been reports nation wide of armed Islamists forcing Christians from their homes. This all needs to stop for the simple reason that the longer it goes on for the longer the Islamist TV stations stay off the air, the longer the Muslim Brotherhood leadership will be detained and longer it will be until a government of national unity can be formed and fresh elections can be held.
I have not yet been able to track down a written copy of the military's full roadmap but I'm sure you'll appreciate that they are very busy at the moment. Their commitment to a swift return to democratic, civilian rule was demonstrated though by the swearing in today of Adly Mansour as interim President. Although not much is known about Mansour he has served as the deputy head of the Constitutional Court since 1992 so seems to be a career technocrat. He was also appointed as head of the Court by Morsi only on Monday (1/7/13). Therefore he seems to have been chosen for the role of interim President to make sure that Morsi's supporters will have a strong voice in the government of national unity which I expect for balance will now be made up largely of opponents of Morsi.
International reaction to Morsi's ouster has also started to emerge and is largely muted although sadly some of it seems distinctly negative. The UK's Foreign Secretary William Hague called on all parties to restore the democratic process and stated that the UK does not support military intervention as a way to resolve disputes. This perfectly mirrored the Muslim Brotherhood's own line and was such a clear attempt to incite violence that Hague went on to make it clear he wasn't attempting to incite violence by calling on all sides to avoid violence. US President Obama went even further decrying the removal of Morsi and effectively calling on the Egyptian military to restore him to power. He also specifically warned the military not to arrest members of the Muslim Brotherhood's leadership in what seems to be a clear attempt to allow the Brotherhood to incite and organise violent retaliations. Thankfully the Egyptian military simply ignored him Obama also said that he has ordered officials to review what financial assistance the US gives to Egypt in response to what he descibed as a military coup. This seems like something of an empty threat because Representative Ed Royce who chairs the House Foreign Affairs Comittee which ultimately makes that decision has already made it quite clear that he is more than happy to see Morsi go.
The US and the UK's negative reaction to Morsi's downfall is driven largely by a desire not to offend the Gulf Monarchies especially in oil rich Saudi Arabia and natural gas rich Qatar. Along with the conflict in Syria the Sunni Gulf Monarch's support for Morsi has been an attempt to create a Sunni dominated middle-east. The fact that Morsi was absolutely terrible at his job also helped to reduce support for the Muslim Brotherhood in the Monarch's own nations. With the Saudi and Qatari Irregular Army (SQIA) losing ground daily in Syria and the G8 nations showing no desire to assist them further the ouster of Morsi represents a major set-back in the Gulf Monarchies plans. Therefore Saudi King Abduallah's message of congratulations to Adly Mansour was absolutely dripping with sarcasm and seemed to be an attempt to reassert Saudi control in Egypt. This is something Egypt's new government will be have to be mindful of because in his one year in office Morsi managed to get Egypt into some USD20billion worth of debt to Saudi Arabia and Qatar.
The African Union has also indicated that it may suspend Egypt in response to what it describes as a military coup. This is simply echoing the US line and is plainly nonsense. Prior to Morsi's ouster some 22 million Egyptians - roughly a quarter of the population - signed a petition calling for him to go. Roughly the same number - some estimates say more - took to the streets for four days calling for him to go. Under the same circumstances in a mature democracy the President would have resigned or at least called a General Election without having to be pushed. So the military may have intervened in Egypt but they were clearly doing so at the behest of the people. That is not a military coup.
16:35 on 4/7/13.
Wednesday, 3 July 2013
Egypt's Continuing Revolution: It's Official.
General al-Sisi the head of the Egyptian military has just finished addressing the nation to announce that Mohamed Morsi is no longer running the country. He went on to lay out a roadmap of how Egypt will be returned to civilian, democratic rule. Obviously that roadmap needs to be published so everybody can read and study it in detail. However the main points seem to be;
19:20 on 3/7/13.
- The constitution has been suspended and the military will run Egypt under martial law for as short as time as possible.
- At the earliest opportunity the military will hand control of the nation over to an unelected government of national unity made up of technocrats who represent a cross section of all of Egypt society.
- The government of national unity will prepare the way for new elections for both houses of Parliament and the Presidency.
19:20 on 3/7/13.
Egypt's Continuing Revolution: Month 13, Week 2, Day 1.
More than a year after his Muslim Brotherhood supporters helped steal the election and four days after millions if not tens of millions took to the streets Egypt's Mohamed Morsi has still not done the decent thing and handed Egypt back to its citizens.
The main delay at this point seems to be that the Egyptian military are still hesitant to do their duty to the nation and forcibly remove Morsi from power. It is easy to see why they are nervous though. After all Saudi Arabia, the UK, the US and all the other nations who want to see Egypt fail have thrown their support behind Morsi. Morsi's own supporters have taken to the streets with guns, knives and iron bars and are threatening civil war if they do not get their way. They have even gone so far as to attack themselves outside the Cairo university in an attempt to smear the opposition and raise tensions. The main reason that the military are dragging their feet though is that they don't want the job of running the country so are worried about what happens after Morsi steps down.
Here I hope I can be of some help. What I think needs to happen is that for a short period the military will have to take over the day to day running of the nation. However their powers will be limited to only what is strictly necessary such as making sure that public employees get paid, Egypt adheres to it's international obligations such as the complex issue of the Sinai border with Israel and Egypt doesn't get invaded by a foreign power. Although the military will have full power their duties will be overseen by a civilian, unelected, interim President. This person needs to be highly intelligent, highly capable and must represent the views of all Egyptians. Therefore he cannot be a member of the Muslim Brotherhood. While I've not spoken to him myself Mohamed El-Baradei's name has frequently been mentioned as a more then qualified candidate.
While Egypt's military and interim President are trying to keep the country running the Constitution adopted in December 2012 must be scrapped because while there are many good elements the majority of it is useless. In no more than three months after Morsi's departure Egypt must hold a special election to chose a body to write a new interim constitution. This document will be very basic covering only the structure of Egypt's new political system and election rules. The current bicameral system of the Peoples Assembly and the Shura Council is actually very good. It's just that the Muslim Brotherhood have packed both bodies with it's members meaning that they are not independent and are therefore not doint their job. The interim constitution will also have to make very basic provisions to allow the military/police to maintain order.
As this constitution is only a interim document in place until new elections can be held and a full Parliament can be elected it will not be put to public referendum and instead will be signed off by the interim President, the military and the Supreme Court. Most importantly though rather than being open to everybody the election for the constitutional panel will be contested by just five parties designated by the military. This unusual step is necessary because after years of military dictatorship Egyptians simply don't have the experience of democracy needed to make it work so need time to practice. This is what caused the problem at the first attempt at post-revolution democracy where the majority of Egyptians voted for secular parties but because there were so many of them the secular vote was split and the minority who supported the Muslim Brotherhood ended up taken power. Therefore limiting the number of parties contesting the election for the constitutional panel will help ensure that panel accurately represents the views of all sections of Egyptian society and through that help speed up the process.
Before any of that can happen though Morsi must step down.
17:35 on 3/7/13.
The main delay at this point seems to be that the Egyptian military are still hesitant to do their duty to the nation and forcibly remove Morsi from power. It is easy to see why they are nervous though. After all Saudi Arabia, the UK, the US and all the other nations who want to see Egypt fail have thrown their support behind Morsi. Morsi's own supporters have taken to the streets with guns, knives and iron bars and are threatening civil war if they do not get their way. They have even gone so far as to attack themselves outside the Cairo university in an attempt to smear the opposition and raise tensions. The main reason that the military are dragging their feet though is that they don't want the job of running the country so are worried about what happens after Morsi steps down.
Here I hope I can be of some help. What I think needs to happen is that for a short period the military will have to take over the day to day running of the nation. However their powers will be limited to only what is strictly necessary such as making sure that public employees get paid, Egypt adheres to it's international obligations such as the complex issue of the Sinai border with Israel and Egypt doesn't get invaded by a foreign power. Although the military will have full power their duties will be overseen by a civilian, unelected, interim President. This person needs to be highly intelligent, highly capable and must represent the views of all Egyptians. Therefore he cannot be a member of the Muslim Brotherhood. While I've not spoken to him myself Mohamed El-Baradei's name has frequently been mentioned as a more then qualified candidate.
While Egypt's military and interim President are trying to keep the country running the Constitution adopted in December 2012 must be scrapped because while there are many good elements the majority of it is useless. In no more than three months after Morsi's departure Egypt must hold a special election to chose a body to write a new interim constitution. This document will be very basic covering only the structure of Egypt's new political system and election rules. The current bicameral system of the Peoples Assembly and the Shura Council is actually very good. It's just that the Muslim Brotherhood have packed both bodies with it's members meaning that they are not independent and are therefore not doint their job. The interim constitution will also have to make very basic provisions to allow the military/police to maintain order.
As this constitution is only a interim document in place until new elections can be held and a full Parliament can be elected it will not be put to public referendum and instead will be signed off by the interim President, the military and the Supreme Court. Most importantly though rather than being open to everybody the election for the constitutional panel will be contested by just five parties designated by the military. This unusual step is necessary because after years of military dictatorship Egyptians simply don't have the experience of democracy needed to make it work so need time to practice. This is what caused the problem at the first attempt at post-revolution democracy where the majority of Egyptians voted for secular parties but because there were so many of them the secular vote was split and the minority who supported the Muslim Brotherhood ended up taken power. Therefore limiting the number of parties contesting the election for the constitutional panel will help ensure that panel accurately represents the views of all sections of Egyptian society and through that help speed up the process.
Before any of that can happen though Morsi must step down.
17:35 on 3/7/13.
Tuesday, 2 July 2013
The Welsh Organ Donor Vote.
Like I said it's an important issue. So what better time to deal with it then when you're kinda drunk and slightly less than legal.
Anyway yesterday the Welsh Assembly voted to allow organ donation with only presumed consent. Rather proving that while it's an "Assembly" rather than a full "Parliament" some of them can read now and everything this bill was so loaded with amendments that it should never have seen it get to a vote. Basically though the bill allows doctors in Wales, UK to remove human organs from a dead patient and transplant them into a dying patient without the prior, informed consent of the organ donor. Believe it or not this is actually a major civil liberties issue. After all to a limited extent it gives "The State" ownership over of the bodies of it's citizens/subjects. However I'll agree that on the issue of human organ donation this simply isn't a question.
However the sad fact is that despite the precedent set by the Nuremberg codes there still people in this nation who would like to take it much further. For example there are many in the UK who have claimed that because I ticked the "Organ Donor" box on my drivers license (yes I have one) they are entitled to do whatever they like to me despite that not being in the small print of the document I signed. Therefore the implication is that the Welsh Assembly was being asked to vote in favour of the recent Swansea Measles outbreak even if I don't remember that being in either translation of the text.
Anyway beyond the discussion of the inviolability of the human body, blood libel and OMG! Why do we still pretend Kosovo is a Country? this raises issues about my and my paternal grandmother's case - specifically whether she should be exhumed so a post-mortem/autopsy can be performed.
If you had asked me this question in September 2012 my answer would have been a definite "Yes." After all I feel a dissection of her brain would have simply confirmed what the CT scans showed - that there was none of the scarring consistent with Vascular Dementia.
However on the day my right elbow failed and my tears kissed the carpet I heard she'd died of a "massive stroke." Although I never saw the scans I saw the patient so I'll agree that it wiped out the left, frontal lobe of the brain. Since roughly 30% of that brain was destroyed and has since been sitting, rotting in the ground for around 8 months I would say that the result of any autopsy will be, at best inconclusive.
Therefore we have to weigh the potential results of any autopsy against the emotional burden that an exhumation will bear of the family. I can only speak as one member of the blood family who never got to go to the original funeral but I am confident that I can make my case without having to disturb her further. So once again I feel we are putting the cart before the whores.
As for the April Jones campaign I feel I should speak more fully. However in the meantime though I would say that Mark Bridger's actions are considered to be a "stranger abduction." Year on year there are roughly 5 of these incidents a year. That average has not changed since the 1970's. Therefore no amount of restrictions on Internet pornography is going to prevent another one being taken nor bring her back. I just hope the yokels remember the Jones' name.
02:15 on 3/7/13.
Anyway yesterday the Welsh Assembly voted to allow organ donation with only presumed consent. Rather proving that while it's an "Assembly" rather than a full "Parliament" some of them can read now and everything this bill was so loaded with amendments that it should never have seen it get to a vote. Basically though the bill allows doctors in Wales, UK to remove human organs from a dead patient and transplant them into a dying patient without the prior, informed consent of the organ donor. Believe it or not this is actually a major civil liberties issue. After all to a limited extent it gives "The State" ownership over of the bodies of it's citizens/subjects. However I'll agree that on the issue of human organ donation this simply isn't a question.
However the sad fact is that despite the precedent set by the Nuremberg codes there still people in this nation who would like to take it much further. For example there are many in the UK who have claimed that because I ticked the "Organ Donor" box on my drivers license (yes I have one) they are entitled to do whatever they like to me despite that not being in the small print of the document I signed. Therefore the implication is that the Welsh Assembly was being asked to vote in favour of the recent Swansea Measles outbreak even if I don't remember that being in either translation of the text.
Anyway beyond the discussion of the inviolability of the human body, blood libel and OMG! Why do we still pretend Kosovo is a Country? this raises issues about my and my paternal grandmother's case - specifically whether she should be exhumed so a post-mortem/autopsy can be performed.
If you had asked me this question in September 2012 my answer would have been a definite "Yes." After all I feel a dissection of her brain would have simply confirmed what the CT scans showed - that there was none of the scarring consistent with Vascular Dementia.
However on the day my right elbow failed and my tears kissed the carpet I heard she'd died of a "massive stroke." Although I never saw the scans I saw the patient so I'll agree that it wiped out the left, frontal lobe of the brain. Since roughly 30% of that brain was destroyed and has since been sitting, rotting in the ground for around 8 months I would say that the result of any autopsy will be, at best inconclusive.
Therefore we have to weigh the potential results of any autopsy against the emotional burden that an exhumation will bear of the family. I can only speak as one member of the blood family who never got to go to the original funeral but I am confident that I can make my case without having to disturb her further. So once again I feel we are putting the cart before the whores.
As for the April Jones campaign I feel I should speak more fully. However in the meantime though I would say that Mark Bridger's actions are considered to be a "stranger abduction." Year on year there are roughly 5 of these incidents a year. That average has not changed since the 1970's. Therefore no amount of restrictions on Internet pornography is going to prevent another one being taken nor bring her back. I just hope the yokels remember the Jones' name.
02:15 on 3/7/13.
The UK's Talking School Holidays.
Yesterday (1/7/13) the UK's senior minister for education Micheal Gove backed by his department suggested that headmasters of schools in England should be given the power to set their own terms. For many this will mean the end of the 6 week long summer holiday.
This is obviously a reference to 50 Beechwood Avenue. You see in the original plan the children at the address would spend the summer holiday running riot and causing me major disruption just as the United Nations (UN) operation in Mali was taking place and Rihanna was involved in an unsettling tour break. Due to my arrest and the engagement of the International Criminal Court (ICC) that is now looking like a distinctly less attractive option for the UK. Gove of course responded to the roof top incident by suggesting standard GCSE exams be replaced with "I-Levels." That of course was hint that the roof top incident represented a criminal offence of public nuisance because it occurred at above eye level. That sadly appears to have gone right over the heads of the yokels meaning that a more concrete solution is required.
One option would be to take Gove's announcement literally and accept that I am the headmaster and I'm allowed to dictate terms. Those terms are of course that those involved in criminal activity at 50 Beechwood are immediately arrested, charged and then either remanded in prison or placed in local council residential care while awaiting trial. A more palatable compromise solution would be for the local Safer Neighbourhood Team (SNT) or ideally the Croydon borough police commander visit the address and inform them that it is extremely unlikely that criminal charges will be pursued against me due to some very serious counter allegations. By continuing to behave in an unlawful manner the occupants of the address are making it impossible for the local police to protect them against those allegations so they'd better moderate their behaviour.
10:20 on 2/7/13.
Edited at around 18:45 on 2/7/13 to add;
The other big talking point in UK politics today was the announcement by the Home Secretary/Interior Minister of a public consultation of the police tactic of stop and search. This tactic is rather self-explanatory as it involves the police stopping a searching people that they have a "reasonable suspicion" of being involved in criminal activity. The issue itself is hugely controversial because the "reasonable suspicion" can be something as vague as the police officer claiming to smell marijuana or someone loosely fitting the description of someone in a crime report (e.g wearing a dark coloured hooded top). Therefore a lot of people (especially black people) think the police abuse this power to harass people while the police think that criminals frequently play the race card to get out of trouble. However with around 1.9 million stop and searches taking place in 2012 and only around 800,000 leading to an arrest this is an issue that needs to be discussed as part of a democratic society. Especially when the Territorial Support Group (TSG) are involved.
However the announcement can also be taken in two coded ways in relation to my case. The first being after being evidenced on numerous occasions engaging in serious criminal activity against me why have the occupants of 50 Beechwood Avenue not been stopped, arrested and their property searched? The second being over the legality of the polices search and seizure of that hammer that I will need returned to me sooner rather than later. I've already covered that in my Glastonbury post. As explained the police are in a bit of a catch 22 there because if they demonstrate their search and seizure was lawful they also give me reasonable doubt. The main legal difference between the stop and search debate and the search and seizure of the hammer is that the hammer was on private property while stop and search can only happen in a public place.
Also CCTV has been released of the Chinese lantern that is said to have caused the Smethwick recycling centre fire. This is obviously a reference to that blackened jam jar from the night of my arrest. As I've explained before until such a time as the police can dream up a formal charge I don't have to comment on that or anything else. However I will point out that when I discovered it on my return from the police station it was approximately 10 metres within the boundaries of my property. So if it was picked up the 50 Beechwood Avenue's CCTV it again raises the question of why they've still not been arrested?
I will also have to do a full post on the Welsh Assembley debate on presumed consent on organ donation. However that's a very complicated issue so I may wait until today's debate is over because they'd be fools to vote on it tonight.
This is obviously a reference to 50 Beechwood Avenue. You see in the original plan the children at the address would spend the summer holiday running riot and causing me major disruption just as the United Nations (UN) operation in Mali was taking place and Rihanna was involved in an unsettling tour break. Due to my arrest and the engagement of the International Criminal Court (ICC) that is now looking like a distinctly less attractive option for the UK. Gove of course responded to the roof top incident by suggesting standard GCSE exams be replaced with "I-Levels." That of course was hint that the roof top incident represented a criminal offence of public nuisance because it occurred at above eye level. That sadly appears to have gone right over the heads of the yokels meaning that a more concrete solution is required.
One option would be to take Gove's announcement literally and accept that I am the headmaster and I'm allowed to dictate terms. Those terms are of course that those involved in criminal activity at 50 Beechwood are immediately arrested, charged and then either remanded in prison or placed in local council residential care while awaiting trial. A more palatable compromise solution would be for the local Safer Neighbourhood Team (SNT) or ideally the Croydon borough police commander visit the address and inform them that it is extremely unlikely that criminal charges will be pursued against me due to some very serious counter allegations. By continuing to behave in an unlawful manner the occupants of the address are making it impossible for the local police to protect them against those allegations so they'd better moderate their behaviour.
10:20 on 2/7/13.
Edited at around 18:45 on 2/7/13 to add;
The other big talking point in UK politics today was the announcement by the Home Secretary/Interior Minister of a public consultation of the police tactic of stop and search. This tactic is rather self-explanatory as it involves the police stopping a searching people that they have a "reasonable suspicion" of being involved in criminal activity. The issue itself is hugely controversial because the "reasonable suspicion" can be something as vague as the police officer claiming to smell marijuana or someone loosely fitting the description of someone in a crime report (e.g wearing a dark coloured hooded top). Therefore a lot of people (especially black people) think the police abuse this power to harass people while the police think that criminals frequently play the race card to get out of trouble. However with around 1.9 million stop and searches taking place in 2012 and only around 800,000 leading to an arrest this is an issue that needs to be discussed as part of a democratic society. Especially when the Territorial Support Group (TSG) are involved.
However the announcement can also be taken in two coded ways in relation to my case. The first being after being evidenced on numerous occasions engaging in serious criminal activity against me why have the occupants of 50 Beechwood Avenue not been stopped, arrested and their property searched? The second being over the legality of the polices search and seizure of that hammer that I will need returned to me sooner rather than later. I've already covered that in my Glastonbury post. As explained the police are in a bit of a catch 22 there because if they demonstrate their search and seizure was lawful they also give me reasonable doubt. The main legal difference between the stop and search debate and the search and seizure of the hammer is that the hammer was on private property while stop and search can only happen in a public place.
Also CCTV has been released of the Chinese lantern that is said to have caused the Smethwick recycling centre fire. This is obviously a reference to that blackened jam jar from the night of my arrest. As I've explained before until such a time as the police can dream up a formal charge I don't have to comment on that or anything else. However I will point out that when I discovered it on my return from the police station it was approximately 10 metres within the boundaries of my property. So if it was picked up the 50 Beechwood Avenue's CCTV it again raises the question of why they've still not been arrested?
I will also have to do a full post on the Welsh Assembley debate on presumed consent on organ donation. However that's a very complicated issue so I may wait until today's debate is over because they'd be fools to vote on it tonight.
Monday, 1 July 2013
Arizona Firefighter Deaths
Yeah this is going to sound weird.
Over the period that I was scheduled to be in police custody a heatwave has struck across the the South-Western United States. In Arizona these high temperatures and low humidity combined with a lightning strike to cause a fast moving wild-fire. Yesterday (30/6/13) a 19 member team from the Granite Mountain Hot Shots firefighting crew were trapped by the flames and were all killed. This marks the US' single biggest loss of firefighters lives since the September 11th terrorist attacks.
Obviously since my arrest the US and the UK have been discussing how to proceed. The US are obviously keen for things to continue as before. The UK being the ones who will end up gripping the guardrail at the International Criminal Court (ICC) are obviously less keen. A large part of this discussion has been a series of fires at recycling centres in the UK including one that was started (by a Chinese Lantern apparently - remember them from the para-Olympic closing ceremony) in Smethwick in the West Midlands yesterday.
Therefore it is possible that the US intentionally killed the Arizona firefighters as part of that discussion. The message being that the people who are trying to "firefight" the problems created by my arrest have failed and the US are conceding to the UK's position. However this is entirely inconsistent with all the other messages the US have been putting out today. Therefore I think that God, the weather or just plain dumb luck is actually just trying to force the US into conceding to the UK position. After all wild-fire fighter is probably one of the most dangerous jobs on the planet.
On a related note US President Obama and UK Prime Minister Cameron's separate overseas diplomatic tours are drawing to a close so things should settle down over the coming days. For example in the original script I was meant to be appearing in front of Croydon Magistrates Court at exactly the same time South African lawyers were appearing in Westminster Magistrates Court for Shrein Dewani's extradition hearing.
18:50 on 1/7/13.
Over the period that I was scheduled to be in police custody a heatwave has struck across the the South-Western United States. In Arizona these high temperatures and low humidity combined with a lightning strike to cause a fast moving wild-fire. Yesterday (30/6/13) a 19 member team from the Granite Mountain Hot Shots firefighting crew were trapped by the flames and were all killed. This marks the US' single biggest loss of firefighters lives since the September 11th terrorist attacks.
Obviously since my arrest the US and the UK have been discussing how to proceed. The US are obviously keen for things to continue as before. The UK being the ones who will end up gripping the guardrail at the International Criminal Court (ICC) are obviously less keen. A large part of this discussion has been a series of fires at recycling centres in the UK including one that was started (by a Chinese Lantern apparently - remember them from the para-Olympic closing ceremony) in Smethwick in the West Midlands yesterday.
Therefore it is possible that the US intentionally killed the Arizona firefighters as part of that discussion. The message being that the people who are trying to "firefight" the problems created by my arrest have failed and the US are conceding to the UK's position. However this is entirely inconsistent with all the other messages the US have been putting out today. Therefore I think that God, the weather or just plain dumb luck is actually just trying to force the US into conceding to the UK position. After all wild-fire fighter is probably one of the most dangerous jobs on the planet.
On a related note US President Obama and UK Prime Minister Cameron's separate overseas diplomatic tours are drawing to a close so things should settle down over the coming days. For example in the original script I was meant to be appearing in front of Croydon Magistrates Court at exactly the same time South African lawyers were appearing in Westminster Magistrates Court for Shrein Dewani's extradition hearing.
18:50 on 1/7/13.
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